2016 Regional Breakdown: Final Four & Final Thoughts

Slow Your Roll
While everyone wants to label this year as the year for crazy things to happen because there is no "dominant" team out there, I think people need to remember that the one seeds and a couple of the twos are really good.  Noticeably-better-than-the-middling-seeds good.  That's why I have three number one seeds (North Carolina, Kansas, and Virginia) in my Final Four and really only have A&M in there because someone has to win the West Region.  If Michigan State had gotten a one seed instead of Oregon, I would've had four number one seeds.  There's still going to be upsets, sure, but to not pick some of these one seeds just because the regular season has been volatile is not recommended.

Final Four & Champion
The KU-A&M matchup I don't think will even be that close.  Kansas should wipe the floor with the Aggies, and really anyone that comes out of the West.  The other side of the bracket, however, should be very interesting.  It would be an all ACC matchup between Virginia and UNC.  They split their two matchups this season with Virginia winning by five at home in late February, and the Tar Heels winning by four last week in the ACC Championship game.  I would anticipate another close, tense game between two foes who know each other well, but I have to take Carolina's talent in the end.

This will set up the Roy Williams National Championship game as Roy takes his Tar Heels to face his old team, the Jayhawks.  I believe that these are the two best teams in the country because of their coaching, versatility, and depth.  Fans of basketball in general should be rooting for this matchup as I think it would be a classic title game that is contested until the end.  I'm going to take the Jayhawks because I think they are a little more consistent than the Tar Heels are, despite having less overall talent on their roster.

Gut Feeling
I've given you numbers, names, and reasons why Team A will beat Team B.  Sometimes, however, when the bracket comes out you see a matchup and before looking deep into the matchup just say, "That feels like it could be an upset."  While I didn't have the guts to actually pick these upsets, here are a few big time shockers that looked appealing when the bracket first came out.

14 Stephen F Austin over 3 West Virginia
13 Iona over 4 Iowa State
11 Gonzaga over 3 Utah and 2 Michigan State
12 Yale over 5 Baylor

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: West

Participants
Oregon, Holy Cross/Southern, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Baylor, Yale, Duke, UNC-Wilmington, Texas, Northern Iowa, Texas A&M, Green Bay, Oregon State, VCU, Oklahoma, Cal State Bakersfield

The "Meh" Region
When I look at this region, I shrug my shoulders and say, "Meh."  None of these teams really jump out at me, and while one of them has to make the Final Four by default, I can't see any of them being favored to win the whole thing.  Oregon is the only top seed that is a bit intriguing, though they play most of their games past my bedtime.  Oregon peaked at the right time to earn their one seed as they won the Pac-12 tournament by beating Arizona for the second time this season in the semifinals, then crushing Utah for the third time this season in the Championship game.  Oklahoma has Buddy Hield, but has basically no depth and lost five of its last eleven games, Texas A&M only had to face Kentucky once during the regular season in a down year for the SEC, Duke has dropped off noticeably from their title winning squad last year, and Baylor one upped Oklahoma by losing six of its last eleven games in the Big 12.  The low seeds also don't do much for me, which could lead to these struggling top teams advancing because of poor opponents rather than their good play.

Texas vs Everyone
The one storyline creator in this region could be if Texas goes far, simply because of the other teams they could face.  If things go chalk and they and Texas A&M win, well then you have one of the better in-state rivalries in all of sports that has been taken away from the two schools due to the Aggies' move to the SEC in 2012.  If Texas wins that game, then they have a chance to meet another rival in Oklahoma, who is still in the Big 12.  The two split the season series with each school winning at home, making a neutral site in the NCAA Tournament a great way to settle the score.  If, however, the number ten VCU Rams were to make it to the Sweet 16, then you would have Texas coach Shaka Smart facing his old VCU team.  Both teams run a variation of Smart's "havoc," high pressure defense which would make this an entertaining watch.  One problem, however, is that I don't think Texas gets to see any of those three teams as Northern Iowa knocks them out in the first game.

Wild Card:  Duke
In an unimpressive region like this, sometimes it's best to put your faith in talent and great coaching.  Duke checks both of those boxes.  They struggled mightily down the stretch and get a tough draw facing UNC-Wilmington, but Grayson Allen can score in bunches and Brandon Ingram hasn't even played up to his full potential even though he is likely to be a top pick in the NBA draft.  Oregon is the perceived "weakest" one seed in the tournament, so if they get knocked off by either St. Joe's or Cincy, then it is not out of the question to see Coach K in another Final Four.

Winner of Region:  Texas A&M
This pick is more so because of the draw that they get rather than how good this team is.  The Aggies did split with Kentucky, but are rather unproven outside of a win over Iowa State and pre-2016 games against Baylor and the 'Zags.  They get off the hook in the second round as I don't think Texas or Nothern Iowa is any threat to knock them off, and Oklahoma will have their hands full with VCU in the second round before potentially facing the Aggies.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: South

Participants
Kansas, Austin Peay, Colorado, UConn, Maryland, South Dakota State, Cal, Hawaii, Arizona, Wichita State, Miami, Buffalo, Iowa, Temple, Villanova, UNC-Ashville

The Prove-It Region
The top seeds in this region, whether it be because of recent tournament history, late season slumps, or being overshadowed by other teams in their conference, all have to prove to the nation that they are worthy of their high seedings.  The top two seeds, Kansas and Villanova, have had great 2015-16 seasons, but have faltered in recent tournaments.  In the past ten years, Kansas has only made it out of their region twice, despite being a number one or two seed eight out of those ten years.  They have also dropped Round of 32 games the past two seasons as a number two seed.  Villanova, meanwhile, was a two seed in 2014 before losing in the Round of 32, then was a one seed last year before losing to NC State in the Round of 32 again.  Miami was overshadowed on the court by fellow ACC members Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia.  While they did beat Duke and Virginia, they also lost to Virginia Tech, NC State, and Clemson.  Cal snagged a four seed despite losing ten games and going 5-10 away from home.  Maryland's W-L record might be impressive, but they failed to answer the bell in almost all of their big games as they lost to North Carolina, Michigan State (twice), once against Purdue, and in Indiana.  If you don't have at least a sliver of doubt about any of the top five teams in this region, you're crazy.

Let's Talk Wildcats
With questions surrounding the top seeds and how far they might go in this region, it is fair to believe that a team seeded 6-12 might emerge.  For me, that team is the sixth seeded Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona is almost the complete opposite of Kansas and Villanova with their recent tournament success.  The Wildcats have been in the tournament five times since 2009 and have advanced to the Elite Eight three times and the Sweet 16 the other two times.  During those five years they have been a one, two, five, six, and twelve seed, and have put together successful runs each time.  They only have eight losses on the year, two of them overtime losses, and none of them having a margin of defeat greater than eight points (a late January loss to Oregon).  Kaleb Tarczewski is a senior presence down low and they have three players who average 15+ points per game.  I was hoping Wichita State would have lost the play in game as they are another sleeper Cinderella team, but I think Arizona takes care of business, surprises a couple teams, and makes it all the way to the Elite Eight.

Wild Card:  Iowa
Are you getting the late December/early January Iowa that swept their season series with both Michigan State and Purdue, or are you getting the late season Iowa that went 4-6 since February started?  I think you'll probably get closer to the latter than the former, but losing early in the Big Ten tournament might have given them time to regroup.  Perhaps they did overachieve in the middle of the season and they will find themselves overwhelmed by Temple in the first round.  The fact still remains that they did still beat Purdue and MSU twice each.  Beating both of those teams twice is not a fluke.  Their draw isn't frightening at all and if we do see the mid-season Hawkeyes, I could also see them getting to the Elite Eight instead of the Wildcats.

Winner of Region:  Kansas
I tried to find a reason or a place to knock Kansas off in this region, but I just couldn't do it.  While I did mention that they failed to make it out of their region eight out of the past ten years, the two times that they did make it out of their region they went to the National Championship game.  This team is talented enough and deep enough to make a similar kind of run.  This team hasn't lost since late January, despite facing the likes of Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State during that span.  I think a potential Round of 32 game against UConn will give them and everyone's bracket a scare, but I think they charge on and make their first Final Four since 2012.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: Midwest

Participants
Virginia, Hampton, Texas Tech, Butler, Purdue, Arkansas Little Rock, Iowa State, Iona, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Utah, Fresno State, Dayton Syracuase, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State

Upset City
While it is almost a consensus that Michigan State and Virginia will meet each other in this region's final, I think the rest of this bracket is wide open.  Gonzaga, having been a dominant program for the past decade or so, now finds itself back as a double digit seed having been no worse than an eight seed the past four tournaments.  Iowa State and Purdue make for two extremely suspect four and five seeds, respectively, as the Cyclones went 5-7 down the stretch and are tied for 257th in the country in points allowed, while Purdue struggled mightily away from home, though they were impressive in the Big Ten Title Game loss.  Iona and Arkansas Little Rock, meanwhile, are potential Cinderella stories as Iona has star AJ English carrying their team, and Arkansas LR plays at a snail's pace, but only allows 59.9 points per game, good for 3rd in the country.  If there was ever a time to take a chance on a 12-13 matchup in the Round of 32, this would be the place to do so.

Virginia Hosed Again
Someone has got it out for the Cavaliers.  For the third year in a row they have a potential matchup with Michigan State in their region.  The Cavs were a two seed last year, only to have to face Michigan State, a seven seed, in the second round of the 2015 tournament.  That should have been an Elite Eight game.  Luckily for the Cavs, it will be an Elite Eight game if they meet this year.  Unluckily for the Cavs, the Spartans are better this year.  Not only will Virginia, the one seed, have to beat the Spartans, but they will have to do it in Big Ten country in Chicago, rather than a site on the east coast that would favor Virginia.  It's unfortunate that both of these teams are worthy of being a Final Four team, but only one will make it.

Wild Card:  Utah
I know it sounds weird to call a three seed a wild card, but with Virginia and MSU so heavily favored to come out of this region, you really could've picked anyone.  Utah is one of those teams that doesn't do anything exceptionally, but they really don't do anything terrible either.  In conference play, they lost to the number one seeded Oregon Ducks three times, but went 2-1 against fourth seeded Cal and beat the sixth seeded Arizona Wildcats in their only meeting this season.  Their road to get to the Sweet 16 is fairly easy where a likely matchup with Michigan State looms.  While I think they drop that game, I think they give the Spartans all they can handle, which is really all you can ask for a non-Virginia, non-Michigan State team in this region.

Winner of Region:  Virginia
The popular pick to come out of this region, and popular pick by many to win the whole thing is Michigan State, so this is going against the grain here.  Maybe I'm a sucker for defense, but I am always so impressed with how well they play on the defensive end whenever I watch them, as they rank 2nd in the nation in points per game allowed.  They always seem to hang around and it is pretty much impossible to blow them out as their largest margin of defeat in any of their seven losses was seven points.  They've answered the call against the big boys, defeating North Carolina, Miami, and Louisville all in the past month.  They've also beaten non-ACC, top seeded foes such as Villanova, Cal, and West Virginia.  The third time will be a charm for this team as the matchup with the Spartans will be a grind-it-out kind of game, but I think the Cavs make just enough plays at the end.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: East

Participants
North Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast/Fairleigh Dickinson, USC, Providence, Indiana, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Stony Brook, Notre Dame, Michigan/Tulsa, West Virginia, Stephen F. Austin, Wisconsin, Pitt, Xavier, Weber State

Blue Bloods Bracket
The East region is absolutely stacked, though slightly top heavy.  I don't see a lot of upsets happening in this region, which should create some excellent Round of 32 matchups.  Kentucky-Indiana will pit two traditional powerhouses against each other, North Carolina-Providence could be a lot closer than people think with Kris Dunn leading the Friars, and a prove-it kind of game for Xavier against a deep, slow, but methodical Wisconsin squad.  The fan bases for the teams in this region travel well, so expect to see large and loud crowds with great atmospheres.

Wild Card:  West Virginia
WVU is the wild card for this region because of their press style of play.  For those that haven't seen them play, they will full court press and trap for essentially the entire game, hoping to force opponents into bad turnovers and easy buckets.  The downside is that when they don't get those easy buckets, they can be fairly easy to beat as they are not a great shooting team.  They only have one "bad" loss (88-71 at Florida), but lost two out of three to Kansas with the lone win coming at home, and were swept by Texas during the season.  Their road is relatively easy compared to the top half of the bracket, and they have the system to go deep in the tournament.  If their press fails, however, I wouldn't be shocked to see them go out in the first round to Stephen F. Austin.

Potential Party Crasher:  Providence
As I mentioned before, and as you'll see with my picks below, it is going to be hard for any low seed to make noise in this region.  Providence in particular has a daunting draw with potential matchups against North Carolina and/or Kentucky looming.  What the Friars do have, however, is a great player in Kris Dunn, who is shaping up to be a first round NBA draft pick.  He is the floor general for Providence and led them through a difficult Big East conference, defeating Butler three times this season, and winning at Villanova.  While it is hard to see them advancing farther than the round of 32 in this region, crazier things have happened.

Winner of Region:  North Carolina
The Tar Heels have easily the most difficult road to the Final Four of any of the one seeds, but I think they can handle it.  They go eight deep, can score with anyone, and are solid defensively.  They won the regular season ACC Championship as well as the ACC tournament Championship.  That's an ACC that has seven teams in the tournament, and should have eight if Louisville were not banned from postseason play this year.  UNC should be rooting this butts off for Chattanooga and Stony Brook to pull the early round upsets, but the Tar Heels should still represent this region even if they see Indiana, Kentucky, or Xavier.

Matty O

2015 Fantasy Football Week 1: Big Deal/No Deal

What a wild Week 1 it was in the fantasy football world.  There were injuries, unexpected studs and duds, as well as predictable performances.  This article will address notable trends or things that happened in Week 1 and whether you should write it off as a Week 1 anomaly (No Deal) or take it as a sign of things to come (Big Deal).  I'll provide at least one nugget of info for each NFL team.

Arizona:  Andre Ellington hurt (Big Deal)
Ellington has struggled with injuries since coming into the league in 2012 and 2015 started with more of the same.  Reports are that Ellington strained his PCL, leaving him out 2-3 weeks.  Chris and David Johnson have a chance to take over the Cards' backfield while Ellington is out.  Ellington is shaping up as a bust already and is no sure bet to remain healthy once he returns to the field.

Atlanta:  Julio Jones' dominance (Big Deal)
Jones was absolutely unstoppable Monday Night, despite being matched up against Philly's new star corner Byron Maxwell.  He was targeted early and often and should benefit from an aging Roddy White and the Falcons showing mild success in the run game.  This is a strong start to my prediction that he will be the number one overall fantasy WR this year.

Baltimore:  Offensive ineptitude (No Deal)
The Ravens looked a mess against the Broncos in Week 1, but I expect a lot of teams to look that way against this attacking Broncos' defense this year.  I think this was just a bad way to start the year for Baltimore on the road against one of the top defenses in the league.  Luckily, they get a nice bounce back opponent in Oakland this weekend.  Look for Justin Forsett and Steve Smith to put up their normal numbers.

Buffalo:  Sammy Watkins shutout (Big Deal)
Things were already bleak for Watkins owners before Week 1 as Tyrod Taylor is not known for his arm, and head coach Rex Ryan would love to pound the football as much as possible.  Fellow WR Percy Harvin actually managed to have a good game, but he's also had flashes of greatness with the Vikings and Seahawks only to fall flat the next week.  I think Watkins has one or two good games this year, but who knows when those will take place?  Watkins was likely drafted by many as a starter, but will probably be riding the bench after a zero point performance in Week 1.

Carolina:  Greg Olsen held to one catch for 11 yards (No Deal)
Unlike Watkins, Olsen has a QB that he is comfortable with that has shown he will gladly funnel targets Olsens' way.  It just didn't happen in Week 1.  The Panthers pounded the ball against the hapless Jags, but likely will need to air it out more in this week's game against Houston.  With no other reliable passing options beyond Olsen, expect a bounce back game this week and moving forward.

Chicago:  Matt Forte's offensive involvement (Big Deal)
What a start for Forte!  There was a lot of talk in the offseason about how Forte might lose some of his fantasy value with Mark Trestman leaving, but Forte looked even better this year as he racked up 141 carries on 24 yards and finished second on the team with eight targets in the passing game.  They even split him out in the slot when they went with an empty backfield.  His usage in the Green Bay game reminded me of Le'Veon Bell last year, who just so happened to finish as the number one overall RB in fantasy in 2014.

Cincinnati:  Tyler Eifert breaks out (Big Deal)
I mentioned Eifert in my Fantasy Breakdown series as a potential sleeper, mainly because he had the TE position all to himself in 2015 with Jermaine Gresham in Arizona.  I didn't think he would have such a successful debut though.  Eifert was targeted 12 times and racked up 104 yards and two TDs in a blowout over the Raiders.  With teams focusing on AJ Green, it should leave Eifert open in the slot and down the seams.  Health permitting, Eifert could be the steal of a lot of people's drafts.

Cleveland:  Offensive ineptitude (Big Deal)
Unlike the Ravens, I don't think Cleveland will bounce back.  They looked dreadful on the offensive side of the ball.  I know the Jets are a good defense, but they are now down to Johnny Manziel as their QB.  While he did throw the only TD for the Browns of the game, he was also picked and lost two fumbles.  The running stats might be even more hilarious as QB Josh McCown managed to out rush RBs Duke Johnson and Isiah Crowell.  Looks like a long year for this team.

Dallas:  Joseph Randle out-touches Darren McFadden 19-7 (Big Deal)
The Cowboys' backfield was a complete mystery coming into this year, but it looks like we got a bit of clarity.  Randle is the lead back with McFadden picking up the scraps, while Lance Dunbar works as more of a WR than a true RB.  So long as he stays out of trouble off the field, Randle should continue to dominate touches in the Cowboy backfield, with Dunbar being a valuable player in PPR leagues if Dallas has to play from behind like they did Sunday night.

Denver:  Peyton Manning throws for 175 yards, zero TDs (Big Deal)
Maybe this is like Tom Brady from last year where he struggles early and comes on towards the end.  Unfortunately, Manning struggled at the end of last year and looked off once again on Sunday.  He was still his usual self calling plays at the line of scrimmage, but his deep ball was off, allowing the Ravens to condense their defense and put the clamps down on this offense as a whole.  While I wouldn't bench Manning, I would have another QB in mind to add to your bench just in case things don't turn around.  The Broncos go to Arrowhead this Thursday.

Detroit:  Ameer Abdullah outplays Joique Bell (Big Deal)
In the preseason, you were either on the Abdullah hype train or you weren't.  After Week 1, that train just got a whole lot fuller.  While he only got one more carry than Bell, Abdullah easily outplayed him by totaling 50 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards, and one rushing TD.  The Lions have been trying to become a more balanced team and they might finally have the RB to carry the load.  I wouldn't be surprised if Bell is phased almost completely out of the picture by the Lions' Week 9 bye.

Green Bay:  James Jones' 2 TDs (No Deal)
I could be completely off here, but I think that Jones just had his best game he will have this season, and he did it on a lot of people's benches and waiver wires.  He's still the number three WR behind Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb, both of whom were targeted more than Jones.  He might have the chemistry with Rodgers, but Adams and Cobb are more talented players.  I like both of them over the long haul.  Jones will be a TD-dependent, inconsistent option at best this season.  He could very well get shutout this week if he draws Richard Sherman.

Houston:  Backfield committee (Big Deal)
With Arian Foster injured, there was a chance for one of these Houston backs to emerge and take the starting job while he is out.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes getting almost the same number of carries.  I'm on record having said that I think Polk is the best of the bunch, but unfortunately I'm not on the coaching staff.  This backfield may be a situation to avoid until Foster's return.

Indianapolis:  Frank Gore totals 31 yards, zero TDs (No Deal)
The Colt offense struggled as a whole against the Bills, but at least Andrew Luck was able to deliver 2 TD passes and TY Hilton was able to snag seven balls for 88 yards.  Gore, the other highly drafted Colt, was hardly a factor in the game and was completely bottled up.  Everyone has been saying for years that this will be the year that Gore finally declines, but I think he'll still be okay.  Week 2 against the Jets will probably give him another dud, but he should clear up after that.  His backups Josh Robinson and Tyler Varga did little to impress in their limited action.

Jacksonville:  Allen Robinson held to one catch, 27 yards (No Deal)
Robinson had a lot of factors working against him this game.  He missed some time with a foot injury (he did return), was matched up against one of the better unknown corners in the league in Josh Norman, and was facing a Panthers team that had a running game plan in mind and held the ball for almost ten minutes more than the Jags.  Like all the Jags' players, inconsistency is to be expected, but they should be trailing in most of their games, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities to catch balls, particularly with Julius Thomas out. Robinson did still see six targets.

Kansas City:  Travis Kelce goes for 106 yards, 2 TDs (Big Deal)
Similar to Eifert of the Bengals, all Kelce needed was for the guy in front of him to go away.  Limited by Anthony Fasano's presence last year, Kelce exploded to start 2015 as the Chiefs' main TE and passing weapon.  He was consistently open and was an easy target for Alex Smith.  While the Chiefs still can't get a WR in the end zone, expect Kelce to many times this season.

Miami:  Offense struggles vs Redskins (No Deal)
This one is no deal, but with a bit of nervousness.  I can understand the Dolphins struggling in the run game as Washington is stout in that category, but Ryan Tannehill should have carved up that secondary.  While he was efficient, the Dolphins only mustered 10 offensive points and Tannehill threw for only 226 yards.  That was good for 17th among Week 1 QBs, behind Brian Hoyer who didn't even finish the game.  They get a break this week playing Jacksonville, but things could get ugly in Weeks 3 and 4 as the Bills and Jets come to town.

Minnesota:  Adrian Peterson flops in return to field (No Deal)
For starters, I was absolutely shocked that Minnesota went with passing plays on their first possession leading to a three and out.  Secondly, I don't think anyone expected the 49ers' defense to be that good this year.  They not only ruined AP's night, but they made Bridgewater look absolutely lost out there.  AP lined up in the shotgun a lot, which is not his style, so hopefully the Vikings go with bigger sets in the future.  Just give him the ball, let the defense stack the box, and let him rumble.

New England:  Dion Lewis gets 19 touches (Big Deal)
Obviously part of Lewis' usage was due to Legarrette Blount being suspended, but I still think Lewis has established himself in the Shane Vereen receiving RB role.  He looked quick and decisive and caught four of his five targets for 51 yards.  The Pats' backfield will always be opponent dependent, but when they play teams with stout defensive fronts (Jets, Bills), I expect Lewis to deliver, particularly in PPR leagues.

New Orleans:  Mark Ingram catches eight balls for 98 yards (No Deal)
Ingram owners might take this as a great sign, but keep in mind that CJ Spiller was out this game and has a chance to come back in Week 2.  He will be the unquestioned featured back in the passing game.  Ingram will continue to get his carries, but don't treat Ingram as some kind of PPR maven all of a sudden.  Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston also had down games, which I don't expect to happen often.  Hope you enjoyed the Ingram PPR points while they lasted.

New York Giants:  Odell Beckham Jr catches five passes for 44 yards (No Deal)
Beckham, a popular dark horse to finish as the number one overall WR this year, struggled in his 2015 debut.  The Cowboys constantly were rolling safeties over the top of him, preventing any long, big plays.  I wouldn't be too worried though as he was still targeted a team high eight times.  Division rivals know each other well, so I expect him to have a bounce back game in an out of division matchup against the Falcons this week.

New York Jets:  Chris Ivory is the Jets' workhorse (Big Deal)
Ivory mashed the Browns on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, totaling 90 yards and two rushing TDs.  He probably would have had more if the game hadn't gotten out of hand and the Jets letting Bilal Powell finish out of the fourth quarter.  Health will always be a concern for Ivory, but he should see 20+ carries weekly in the Jets' backfield.  Feel free to upgrade him to a RB1, particularly against the Colts this coming Monday Night.

Oakland:  Amari Cooper doesn't live up to hype (Big Deal)
I still think Cooper is a talented player, but the team situation that he is in is terrible for his value.  Derek Carr was less than impressive before he got injured, and Matt McGloin did his damage when the game was well out of reach.  Cooper also has to compete with Michael Crabtree for targets as Cooper only got one more target than Crabtree and the same number of catches (5).  Cooper will be matched up against top corners week in and week out and still has to face Jimmy Smith, Joe Haden, Darrelle Revis, and Chris Harris (twice).  He'll have good weeks in plus matchups, but he'll have less good performances than expected by those that took a chance on the rookie.

Philadelphia:  Eagles' run game sputters (No Deal)
Despite the perception of this high flying, up tempo attack, Chip Kelly's offense is really built around the run game.  They were unable to establish the line of scrimmage, limiting DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to 13 yards combined.  In fact, it was Darren Sproles who stole the show carrying the football as he toted it five times for 50 yards.  I think the Eagles will make more of a commitment to the run in the weeks to come, though there is some concern that their defense will put them in positions where they have to play catch up.  Bradford threw the ball a ridiculous 52 times on Monday Night.  I don't expect him to come close to that many attempts for the rest of the season.

Pittsburgh:  Big Ben throws for 351, one interception, one garbage time TD (No Deal/Big Deal)
It's no deal in the sense that I think he will improve upon these numbers, but it is a big deal if you bought into the idea that the Steelers would be able to throw the ball all over the place like last year and Big Ben would be a top five QB.  They were without Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, but their second WR Markus Wheaton, failed to step up to the plate once again and played poorly.  If it weren't for Antonio Brown's skills and Heath Miller's reliability, Ben's line could have looked much worse.  I think people fell in love with Big Ben's back to back six TD games last season and expected similar dominance this year.  Not so fast my friend.

Saint Louis:  Rams out gain Seahawks in total yardage (Big Deal)
The fact that the Rams beat the Seahawks didn't surprise me so much as how well the Rams played offensively.  This team was known for their defense, but starting Benny Cunningham at RB and listing Brian Quick, their best WR, as a healthy scratch, had the makings of a blowout in favor of Seattle.  Instead, Nick Foles finished with a 115.8 passer rating and threw the game winning TD in the waning moments of the game.  Once the Rams get Tre Mason and possibly Todd Gurley healthy, they might actually have some fantasy relevant pieces, despite many, including myself, doubting they would even have one. 

San Diego:  Danny Woodhead outplays Melvin Gordon (Big Deal)
I warned people about this heading into 2015 and the first game of the year played out just like I predicted.  Gordon got some between the 20s looks, but when it came down to the red zone, the Chargers simply trusted Woodhead more.  Woodhead found the end zone two times and was his usual self out catching passes out of the backfield, hauling in four receptions for 20 yards.  Gordon's 14 carries did lead the Chargers RBs, but without the TDs, Gordon will be a borderline bench player, despite being drafted as a RB2 by some people.

San Francisco:  Carlos Hyde runs wild (Big Deal)
Everything about how the 49ers played on Monday Night shocked me, including Hyde.  Hyde showed a surprising amount of quickness having being pigeonholed as a rumbling between the tackles back, and racked up 168 yards and 2 TDs on the Vikes defense.  The Niners clearly want to continue to pound the football, and so long as their defense plays in dominant fashion, they should be able to.  I try not to overreact to Week 1, but it was hard not to watch that game and think this Niners team could be a real threat in the NFC.

Seattle:  Tyler Lockett totals 119 return yards on four kicks, scores once (Big Deal)
This kid is the real deal.  A rookie out of Kansas State, Lockett is the new Devin Hester in the NFL, except he also can make noise on offense as well.  While he might help some leagues that count return yards, he will help all owners of the Seattle D/ST with his return TDs.  He is electric every time he touches the football and Pete Carroll is trying to work him into the offense as well. 

Tampa Bay:  Jameis Winston's terrible debut (Big Deal)
It's not so much Winston's fault as it is the people around him.  The Bucs have multiple rookies on the offensive line and have their best receiving weapon in Mike Evans injured at the moment.  Head coach Lovie Smith has never had incredible offenses anyways, and their defense looks putrid enough to put the Bucs in a lot of holes this year.  With the Falcons showing an improved defense and Carolina still looking stout on D, expect the Bucs to wind up with a single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft, and for Winston's rookie numbers to look anything but impressive.

Tennessee:  Marcus Mariota's wonderful debut (Big Deal/No Deal)
Similar to Big Ben, there's two sides to the coin here.  It's a big deal in that I think he will be successful this year, but no deal if you think he's throwing for four TDs that easily every week.  Mariota had a perfect passer rating and four TDs, but only had to throw the ball 16 times.  I'd like to see how he performs when his defense has to face a great offense and Mariota has to use his arm to keep up.  He is very startable in this week's matchup against the Browns, but will have to keep up with Andrew Luck in Week 3, then faces the Bills' D in Week 4.  Let's see where he stands after that.

Washington:  Alfred Morris runs for 121 on 25 carries (Big Deal)
There really wasn't too much to take away from this game apart from the fact that DeSean Jackson got injured.  I think we all expected the Skins' pass game to be below average and Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon to be the main targets.  Morris' 121 yards stood out, however, because this Dolphin defense added Ndamukong Suh in the offseason to plug up the run.  Morris was able to average 4.8 yards per carry and was the clear workhorse in the backfield.  If they can get closer to the end zone more times than they did on Sunday, Morris will continue to be a solid and steady RB2, no matter who is behind center.

Matty O

2015 AFC Outlook

Defending Champs:  New England Patriots
I had my questions about the Pats prior to Brady being freed from suspension, and those questions still linger despite Brady having his four game suspension nullified.  On the offensive side, their two leading receivers from last year, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman, have been struggling with injuries this offseason, with LaFell winding up on the reserve/PUP list to start the year, meaning he won't be available until Week 8.  While Rob Gronkowski had a monster season last year, don't forget that 2014 was his first injury-free season since 2011.  They also surprisingly released Jonas Gray, who was their leading rusher last season.  I know that LeGarrette Blount did well down the stretch, but all that leaves in the Pats' backfield is Blount, Brandon Bolden, and James White.  Defensively, they lost star cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, and are counting on guys like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to replace them.  Bill Belichick has a knack for getting the most out of no-name players, but eventually the Pats are going to experience a drop off.  With the rest of their division improving in the offseason, I think 2015 is the year we see the Pats decline.

Most Likely To Fall Off:  Pittsburgh Steelers
Obviously the Pats would be my choice if I had not written about them above, so I'll go with the offensively scary, defensively porous Steelers.  Last season, the Steelers made the playoffs behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger and a schedule that saw them play only two playoff teams outside their division (Panthers, Colts).  This year, they face the AFC and NFC West (at Seattle in Week 12), along with going to New England to open the season and playing the Colts a week after their visit to Seattle.  Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, budding young WR Martavis Bryant is suspended for the first four games, and Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is injured and won't be back until around Week 12.  Their defense is still extremely suspect and is unlikely to improve significantly upon their 18th overall total defense ranking last season.  Some people view this team as a Super Bowl contender, but in a division that got three teams to the playoffs last year, I think the Steelers could be struggling to fight for a Wild Card spot.

Most Likely To Surprise:  Miami Dolphins
On paper, this team looks like an elite club.  Ryan Tannehill continues to improve at QB each season, and the Dolphins' front office has done an excellent job surrounding him with weapons for this upcoming season.  Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry were already there, but they added TE Jordan Cameron and WR Kenny Stills, along with drafting WR DeVante Parker and RB Jay Ajayi.  Reports are that star left tackle Branden Albert will be ready for Week 1, giving Tannehill one less thing to worry about.  Defensively, this team made the biggest offseason splash by landing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.  He will plop down right in the middle of edge rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.  Those three should terrorize QBs from the get go, allowing Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes to capitalize on badly thrown footballs.  The hype train for the Dolphins has been rolling for a couple years now and I think they finally have the pieces in place to break through.

Team With The Most To Prove:  Indianapolis Colts
Although Andrew Luck seemed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame from the day he was drafted, he has yet to translate that into postseason success.  The Colts are in arguably the weakest division in football, giving them fairly easy access to the playoffs year after year.  Despite this, they have been absolutely destroyed by the Patriots the last two seasons in the playoffs, and were crushed by the Ravens in 2012 as well.  I know he's only in his fourth year, but it's time for Luck to start putting up his regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Thankfully for Luck, he now has new veteran teammates in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, as well as 2015 first round WR Phillip Dorsett.  This should be one of, if not the, best offenses in the league.  The defense, however, is a problem.  Vontae Davis is a legit shutdown corner, but their run defense is abysmal and doesn't project to be much better in 2015.  The Colts can throw it all they want, but when they run into teams like the Ravens and Patriots who are more than willing to just pound the ball inside, then they crumble as a team.  Again, maybe I'm being too hard on Luck considering he's still pretty young, but with a free pass to the playoffs on a yearly basis, it's time to start performing much better against the big boys in the AFC.

Division by Division Final Standings
East
1.  Dolphins
2.  Patriots
3.  Bills
4.  Jets
North
1.  Ravens
2.  Bengals
3.  Steelers
4.  Browns
South
1.  Colts
2.  Texans
3.  Jaguars
4.  Titans
West
1.  Broncos
2.  Chiefs
3.  Chargers
4.  Raiders

Playoff Seeding
1.  Colts
2.  Ravens
3.  Broncos
4.  Dolphins
WC1.  Chiefs
WC2.  Patriots

Matty O