Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Injuries to the weapons around him along with terrible line play was the main reason Ryan had a down year. The good news is that he still threw for over 4500 yards and gets his best offensive weapon in Julio Jones back. In the four full games that Jones played last year, Ryan had three of his best fantasy performances all year. The loss of Tony Gonzalez certainly hurts, but while Jones was out last year, Harry Douglas proved to be a capable WR opposite Roddy White, and should continue to be effective as the third WR this year. Ryan won't give you huge, monster numbers on a regular basis, but won't give you many duds either. With practically no injury history, Ryan is a safe, consistent pick.
Julio's injury history is what might cause him to drop in drafts, but his pure athleticism is what might cause him to be reached for in drafts. He's only played one full season in three years and had to have a specially made cleat for him this offseason to try and help him with his foot pains. When he's on the field, however, he's easily one of the top five WRs in the NFL. He's fast, strong, tall, and plays in an offense where they like to throw the ball. Where and if you take him all depends on how you feel about his health. If he does play a full 16 games, you can pretty much guarantee a top eight, maybe top five season.
Bust: Steven Jackson, RB
I'll admit, I thought Jackson was going to come in and light it up for the Falcons. After putting up respectable fantasy numbers in St. Louis, it only made sense that he would put up elite numbers in an offense that made Michael Turner a highly sought after fantasy player. Instead, injury and overall ineptitude of Atlanta's offense caused him to put up his worst yardage and yards per carry average of his career. To his credit, he did have a couple nice games late in the year, but I doubt that carries over into this year. He's 31 and is no longer a three down workhorse like he was in St. Louis. Joique Bell, Shane Vereen, and Bishop Sankey are all going after him, and are all players I would rather have.
Sleeper: Roddy White, WR
Not too long ago, White was a no brainer WR1 in fantasy. While I don't think he reaches that level again, I do think he can be very helpful to a lot of owners this year. His rocky start last year was probably due to him not being at full health, but he cranked out some nice games once he was 100% (Week 13 & 16). When both are healthy, White is now technically behind Jones but given how much this team likes to pass and how awful their defense is, White should still get a good amount of looks. I could see him dropping in a good number of drafts since he's kind of been forgotten in the Julio Jones hype the past couple years. Take him if you get the chance.
Bottom Line
There will be plenty of shootouts this year when the Falcons are playing. Half of their games are in the comfort of the Georgia Dome and their defense is not so good. Mike Smith and the Falcons have no problem getting into shootouts with teams, which is great news for the options involved in the aerial attack for this team.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB
Newton does not come worry free in 2014. He had offseason ankle surgery, has an average at best line, and has a completely new receiving corps. His passing yards have dropped since his rookie year as he wound up with 3,379 last year. While it's too harsh to expect him to finish under 3,000, he's certainly not going to even sniff Rodgers or Brees numbers. Thankfully for Cam, his rushing yards and TDs save his fantasy value. He still has TE Greg Olsen and rookie Kelvin Benjamin is one of the top three WRs from this year's draft. Despite all the changes, he'll still finish as a top eight fantasy QB.
Bust: Carolina RBs
I'm pretty sure this will be Carolina's bust selection until they break that backfield up. As it stands, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all on the roster and all have different roles for the team. Williams is the one most likely to break a long one, Stewart is the oft injured one who frustrates everyone when he goes in the game, and Tolbert is the one most likely to get the short TDs. Any one game, all three could cancel out each other's production, or one will go off while the other two do absolutely nothing. If you do wind up with one of these backs, prepare for a season full of headaches as you try to figure out when to start any one of them.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
Olsen may not have the hype of a Jordan Cameron, he may not have the athleticism of a Vernon Davis, but Olsen is a consistently solid TE who should match or better his past performances in 2014. After years of being, in my opinion, underutilized in Chicago, Olsen has been a great fit in Carolina the past three seasons with back to back seasons of triple digit targets. While some may think the absence of Steve Smith will put more defensive focus on Olsen, I don't think it will be too big of a deal given his size, hands, and route running. What the Smith departure will certainly do is give Olsen more targets. He's not a burner and, unfortunately, the Panthers love to run it in the red zone despite Olsen's size, but he'll still put up great numbers. He's going seventh right now, but I would predict that in a PPR league, he'll finish top four, maybe even top three pending Gronk and Julius Thomas' health.
Bottom Line
On offense, Carolina has got to rebuild. Once they are able to get rid of Williams and Stewart, then they can really start putting some good, young players around Cam. For 2014, however, it might be a bit of a grind. Their defense is still one of the best in the league and should win a fair share of games for them this year.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Marques Colston, WR
Since arriving in New Orleans, Brees has been a blessing to both the Saints organization and fantasy football owners. Now entering his ninth season as a Saint, Brees will look to put up his fourth 5,000 yard season in a row this year. There's really not much to say about him, other than he's a lock to finish right behind Peyton Manning for fantasy points this year (sorry, Rodgers fans). The weapons are all around him with one of the most creative offensive play callers in the league. Trust in Breesus.
Graham is the most dangerous of all Brees' weapons. While there was a debate this offseason about whether or not he was a WR or TE, there is no debate that he is the number one fantasy TE, and is worthy of a first or second round pick (in PPR, he's a first round lock). He might present the most dangerous matchup problem in all the NFL and is moved and used in multiple formations. Brees can literally just throw it up for Graham in a crowd of corners and safeties, and there's a 90% chance that Graham will come away with the football. He's just as safe a Brees is.
Colston was looking like he lost a step early last year, but rebounded down the stretch. Colston showed up just in time for the fantasy playoffs, catching 22 passes for 280 yards and three TDs. He was nagged by injuries early on, so I expect him to carry over his end of the year performance into 2014. Prior to last year, he had put up four straight 1,000 yard seasons with no less than 106 targets during that time. He has always been they guy that won't get you any, "Good pick," remarks from your friends, but will still be a solid part of your fantasy thing. Upside is low, but his floor is high. Taking the number one WR in this offense shouldn't be too difficult.
Bust: Saints RBs
Similar to the Panthers, there are three backs that will likely get legitimate playing time in different roles. Pierre Thomas is the most likely to do well, and will probably be the main target on passing downs. Mark Ingram is the between the tackles, bowling ball back. Khiry Robinson has been hyped as the best out of all of them, but it seems as though the staff are bringing him along slowly. Just like in Carolina, I think they eat into each other's value, making each one of them a gamble to start each week. Thomas probably has the best chance to stand out given his pass catching ability and experience, but a rotation of backs is highly likely in the Big Easy.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills also fit the bill here, but let's check out this Saints defensive unit. After being fired by the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has completely transformed this Saints defense into a highly aggressive unit. They finished 11th in fantasy points last year and I'm predicting a top five finish by this unit this year. With the acquisition of Jairus Byrd, the Saints might just have the best safety duo in the league with Kenny Vaccaro on the other side. They're still going to give up yardage and points, but that's only part of what makes a good fantasy defense. Their ability to get turnovers will be big and Ryan will be preaching that over and over again. The noise of the Superdome is a significant advantage for this unit, and I expect to see a couple 20 pointers put up in New Orleans. Great bargain considering they're going 12th in drafts.
Bottom Line
The Saints should once again be playoff bound and possible Super Bowl contenders. The loss of Darren Sproles will not go unnoticed, but I think they've done enough to allow this offense to still flourish. They put up mind boggling stats whenever they're in the Dome, no matter who they play, which is just an added boost for this team. Be excited about any Saint you draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Vincent Jackson, WR
While V-Jax might have been more well known when Phillip Rivers was throwing him the ball in San Diego, he's actually found more success in the two years he's been in Tampa. He's gotten at least 147 targets and put up his two highest receiving totals of his career. The problem with Jackson, and what keeps him from being in the elite discussion, is that he has been inconsistent during his time with the Bucs. He had four games of 114+ yards, but also had five of 35 or less. He'll once again have a new QB throwing to him in Josh McCown and will have rookie Mike Evans opposite him, hopefully drawing away more coverage than targets. If you can deal with the peaks and valleys, Jackson is a solid WR2, borderline WR1.
Bust: Doug Martin, RB
While I warned against drafting him last year, I didn't think the reason he would fail would be because of injury. Alas, in Week 7 Martin suffered a season ending injury after being taken in the first round of a lot of fantasy drafts. What people forget is how, similar to Jackson, madly inconsistent Martin has been. His rookie year numbers were nice, but most of the damage and hype came from a four TD performance against the Raiders. In the five full games he played last year, Martin was given the workload but didn't deliver. He had 20+ carries in the first four games but only managed one TD and went over 100 yards one time. While he was injured, Bobby Rainey and Mike James flashed their own playmaking abilities. Even if he were guaranteed all the carries for the Bucs, I'm still not sure he would produce RB1 numbers. With Rainey and James lurking, I think Martin owners could be in for a disappointing year.
Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
ASJ probably won't get drafted, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on, particularly if you have an injury prone player like Gronk as your starting TE. ASJ is 6'5", 262 lbs. and will probably be best utilized in the red zone. The Bucs seem to be trying to duplicate the size that McCown had to throw to last year, and Martellus Bennett wound up finishing 12th in fantasy points. I'm not saying ASJ finishes that high, but I'm willing to bet he makes a better than normal bye week fill in TE, and maybe even has a couple two or three TD games this year. His size should present problems for defenses, though the elite numbers might be a few years away.
Bottom Line
From the coaching staff to the QB, there's a lot of new faces in Tampa this year. Hopefully for fantasy owners, Lovie Smith doesn't hold back the explosive potential that this offense has. He will bring improved numbers to this defense though, as this unit has sleeper top five potential. They might start off slow with all the new pieces in place, but they should start clicking after the first few weeks.
Matty O
Friday, August 15, 2014
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South
Houston Texans
Studs: Andre Johnson, WR, Arian Foster, RB
Everyone, including Johnson himself, wishes he was on a different team. After going through a mini-holdout where he tried to get the Texans to trade him to a Super Bowl contender, Johnson will once again line up as the top WR for the Texans. Despite playing with average QB talent on a run first team, Johnson continues to put up stellar numbers. He caught 109 balls for 1,407 yards and five TDs last year for the last place Texans. You'd like the TD numbers to be higher, but the Texans were putrid last year in every phase of the game. He'll once again have average QB talent throwing him the ball, but that doesn't seem to effect his numbers. He's getting up there in age, but I still think Johnson has two or three more good fantasy seasons left.
Spoiler alert, he'll be in the bust section as well but let's consider the good first when drafting Foster. Prior to an injury shortened 2013, he had three straight years of 1,200+ yards with at least 10 TDs. The Texans are still a run first team and Foster will probably be relied on to carry the load. The defense should be much improved from last year, allowing more offensive possessions and carries for Foster. He's also a talented back catching passes, boosting his value in PPR leagues. He'll still cost you a high pick, but it won't be in the top 5 like he used to be.
Bust: Foster, RB
The bust, or risk factor for Foster, is his injury history. Back in 2011, Foster suffered a hamstring injury which cost him three games. In 2013, he suffered a back injury in Week 9 and was out the rest of the year. His hamstring was aggravated once again this summer during training camp and he has just now gotten back with the team to continue practicing. Recurring hamstring injuries are not good news, particularly when they flare up this close to the start of the season. I doubt Foster will see any preseason time as the coaching staff will be very cautious with him. When he's on the field, the talent is certainly there, but the injury risk is off the charts. Draft him at your own peril.
Sleeper: Jonathan Grimes, RB
If you are going to take a chance on Foster, make sure your draft this dude. Grimes has emerged as the backup for Foster should he go down. While Grimes hasn't really done anything too impressive in his short NFL career, he did survive the RB cuts the Texans made as Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson were both kicked to the curb. Grimes is easily one of the top RB handcuffs this season.
Bottom Line
Not too much to get excited about here with the Texans. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can simply manage the game, then the offense might put up better numbers this year. The defense should be better, but I'm not ready to call them a viable option yet for fantasy purposes. Their front seven is great when Brian Cushing is healthy, but their secondary has loads of questions.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
2014 has a chance to be Luck's best year yet as a pro. In his rookie season, the yards were there, but he threw 18 interceptions. Last year, the yards dipped, but he also cut his interceptions in half. He still lagged behind the elite QBs in TDs as he only threw for 23 last year and his rookie year. This year, he has Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury, Coby Fleener is still there, and Hakeem Nicks is looking to bounce back. I think his yardage totals and TDs go up as he chases the elite QB numbers in a relatively weak division.
Considering Wayne hadn't missed a game since his rookie season (2001), I wouldn't be too worried about him coming back from an injury that cost him most of last year. Wayne could also go on the sleeper list considering teammate T.Y. Hilton is being taken ahead of him in drafts. Let's take a look back at Luck's rookie season when he had Wayne for a full 16 games. Wayne had a ridiculous 194 targets (most in his career) and 1,355 yards (second most in his career). By the way, Peyton Manning happened to be the QB Wayne used to catch balls from. Luck will continue to pepper Wayne with targets and he'll continue to post solid numbers, particularly in PPR. Wayne is easily the safest of the Colt's WRs.
Bust: Hilton, WR
Hilton will be the guy starting opposite Wayne. Hilton is one of those boom or bust guys, evidenced by his extremely up and down 2013. His ups were awesome as he posted 26 against Seattle and a 30 in Houston in Week 9. The rest of his games, to be quite honest, were pretty quiet. This included a stretch during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14, 15, and 16) where he put up yardage totals of 7, 78, and 52 with zero TDs in those three games. Maybe he does better as a number two WR and maybe Wayne has lost a step, but I think Hilton is being drafted far too high for how inconsistent he is. If you do draft him, I would advise selling him high after his first huge game.
Sleeper: Trent Richardson, RB
Some people might be rolling their eyes already, but call me a T-Rich believer. There's no denying that his 2013 was statistically awful, but he still has that big frame and can catch the ball surprisingly well for his size. He made the switch from Cleveland to Indy in the middle of the season (a trade I'm still confused by), so it's possible the transition period was simply too tough on him. Now he has a full off season with a healthy Colts' offense to try and learn the offense better. He's undoubtedly big enough to be their goal line bruiser, and TDs were what made him such a big fantasy hit in the first place (11 his rookie year in Cleveland). Richardson might be the player with the most split opinion this year, but I'm leaning more towards his rookie year production than his 2013 production.
Bottom Line
The Colts have the best team in this division by far. Luck, Hilton, and Richardson are all young players who might get even better this season. Wayne, and to a lesser extent Nicks, will give Luck options to throw to. The defense isn't anything impressive but that's not too much of a concern with the firepower they have on offense. I'm not saying this offense will be Peyton Manning-like when he was in Indy, but it'll be close.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Have you seen their roster?
Bust: Toby Gerhart, RB
Maybe he turns into the workhorse for this team, but I'm not buying it yet. Even if he does turn into the workhorse, I'm not sure he puts up the numbers necessary to warrant his fifth round selection. He's great for around the goal line, but it's fair to question how often the Jags will even wind up there this year. It also wouldn't surprise me if some kind of running back by committee develops with Gerhart, Jordan Todman, and Storm Johnson. This will be Gerhart's first full time starting gig after backing up Adrian Peterson, but I don't think he's the answer in the backfield for the Jags.
Sleeper: Blake Bortles, QB
This all hinges on if the Jags are serious about their whole "redshirting" of Bortles. Supposedly, they will make Bortles sit for an entire year, allowing Chad Henne to play the Jags into last place. If the front office ever wakes up, however, and puts Bortles in, I think he could have an outstanding rookie year even with the lack of weapons on the Jags. He's the best QB to be drafted in the past two years and the Jags were smart to take him so high. If the Jags allow him to play a full 16 games, I think he finishes in the top 12 for fantasy QBs. Pretty good for a guy that might go undrafted in your league.
Bottom Line
This team is all about the future. Like I said, if the redshirt thing is true, then the Jags will be a true contender for the number one overall pick this year. Unless Bortles emerges, I would stay away from anyone on this roster.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: None
The Titans and Jags are almost exactly alike. New RB situation, veteran QB preventing talented rookie from playing, skilled but inconsistent WRs, and bad defenses.
Bust: Any Titans WR
The three fantasy relevant ones on this roster are Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and Nate Washington. Wright might be considered for PPR leagues, but he still only had two TDs last year on 94 receptions. Hunter probably has the most potential out of this group, but people were saying the same thing last year and he didn't perform. Washington has a good game here or there, but nothing to write home about. I don't think any of them excel and probably cancel out any significant numbers that any one of them might get. Hunter would probably be the one to own out of this group considering his ceiling is highest, but I wouldn't feel good about any of these guys.
Sleeper: Delanie Walker, TE
Again, I remind you to wait on TE if you can't grab Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, or Rob Gronkowski. After playing second fiddle to Vernon Davis for years in San Francisco, Walker finally got his chance at the full time starting job in Tennessee last year. He wound up with 60 catches, 571 yards, and six TDs. That was good for 12th among TEs last year for fantasy points, meaning he could be a starter in a 12 team league. Ken Whisenhunt comes over from the TE happy Chargers and I wouldn't be surprised if he brings some of that TE emphasis with him. Walker's not the biggest or fastest of all guys, but he can put up numbers if given the chance. I think he improves on his numbers from last year and moves up into the top 10 for TEs.
Bottom Line
Like the Jags, this team is all about the future. Bishop Sankey and Hunter might turn into early rounders in a couple years, but for now, it's best to look elsewhere for solid fantasy talent, though I think Sankey puts up decent numbers this year.
Matty O
Studs: Andre Johnson, WR, Arian Foster, RB
Everyone, including Johnson himself, wishes he was on a different team. After going through a mini-holdout where he tried to get the Texans to trade him to a Super Bowl contender, Johnson will once again line up as the top WR for the Texans. Despite playing with average QB talent on a run first team, Johnson continues to put up stellar numbers. He caught 109 balls for 1,407 yards and five TDs last year for the last place Texans. You'd like the TD numbers to be higher, but the Texans were putrid last year in every phase of the game. He'll once again have average QB talent throwing him the ball, but that doesn't seem to effect his numbers. He's getting up there in age, but I still think Johnson has two or three more good fantasy seasons left.
Spoiler alert, he'll be in the bust section as well but let's consider the good first when drafting Foster. Prior to an injury shortened 2013, he had three straight years of 1,200+ yards with at least 10 TDs. The Texans are still a run first team and Foster will probably be relied on to carry the load. The defense should be much improved from last year, allowing more offensive possessions and carries for Foster. He's also a talented back catching passes, boosting his value in PPR leagues. He'll still cost you a high pick, but it won't be in the top 5 like he used to be.
Bust: Foster, RB
The bust, or risk factor for Foster, is his injury history. Back in 2011, Foster suffered a hamstring injury which cost him three games. In 2013, he suffered a back injury in Week 9 and was out the rest of the year. His hamstring was aggravated once again this summer during training camp and he has just now gotten back with the team to continue practicing. Recurring hamstring injuries are not good news, particularly when they flare up this close to the start of the season. I doubt Foster will see any preseason time as the coaching staff will be very cautious with him. When he's on the field, the talent is certainly there, but the injury risk is off the charts. Draft him at your own peril.
Sleeper: Jonathan Grimes, RB
If you are going to take a chance on Foster, make sure your draft this dude. Grimes has emerged as the backup for Foster should he go down. While Grimes hasn't really done anything too impressive in his short NFL career, he did survive the RB cuts the Texans made as Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson were both kicked to the curb. Grimes is easily one of the top RB handcuffs this season.
Bottom Line
Not too much to get excited about here with the Texans. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can simply manage the game, then the offense might put up better numbers this year. The defense should be better, but I'm not ready to call them a viable option yet for fantasy purposes. Their front seven is great when Brian Cushing is healthy, but their secondary has loads of questions.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
2014 has a chance to be Luck's best year yet as a pro. In his rookie season, the yards were there, but he threw 18 interceptions. Last year, the yards dipped, but he also cut his interceptions in half. He still lagged behind the elite QBs in TDs as he only threw for 23 last year and his rookie year. This year, he has Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury, Coby Fleener is still there, and Hakeem Nicks is looking to bounce back. I think his yardage totals and TDs go up as he chases the elite QB numbers in a relatively weak division.
Considering Wayne hadn't missed a game since his rookie season (2001), I wouldn't be too worried about him coming back from an injury that cost him most of last year. Wayne could also go on the sleeper list considering teammate T.Y. Hilton is being taken ahead of him in drafts. Let's take a look back at Luck's rookie season when he had Wayne for a full 16 games. Wayne had a ridiculous 194 targets (most in his career) and 1,355 yards (second most in his career). By the way, Peyton Manning happened to be the QB Wayne used to catch balls from. Luck will continue to pepper Wayne with targets and he'll continue to post solid numbers, particularly in PPR. Wayne is easily the safest of the Colt's WRs.
Bust: Hilton, WR
Hilton will be the guy starting opposite Wayne. Hilton is one of those boom or bust guys, evidenced by his extremely up and down 2013. His ups were awesome as he posted 26 against Seattle and a 30 in Houston in Week 9. The rest of his games, to be quite honest, were pretty quiet. This included a stretch during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14, 15, and 16) where he put up yardage totals of 7, 78, and 52 with zero TDs in those three games. Maybe he does better as a number two WR and maybe Wayne has lost a step, but I think Hilton is being drafted far too high for how inconsistent he is. If you do draft him, I would advise selling him high after his first huge game.
Sleeper: Trent Richardson, RB
Some people might be rolling their eyes already, but call me a T-Rich believer. There's no denying that his 2013 was statistically awful, but he still has that big frame and can catch the ball surprisingly well for his size. He made the switch from Cleveland to Indy in the middle of the season (a trade I'm still confused by), so it's possible the transition period was simply too tough on him. Now he has a full off season with a healthy Colts' offense to try and learn the offense better. He's undoubtedly big enough to be their goal line bruiser, and TDs were what made him such a big fantasy hit in the first place (11 his rookie year in Cleveland). Richardson might be the player with the most split opinion this year, but I'm leaning more towards his rookie year production than his 2013 production.
Bottom Line
The Colts have the best team in this division by far. Luck, Hilton, and Richardson are all young players who might get even better this season. Wayne, and to a lesser extent Nicks, will give Luck options to throw to. The defense isn't anything impressive but that's not too much of a concern with the firepower they have on offense. I'm not saying this offense will be Peyton Manning-like when he was in Indy, but it'll be close.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Have you seen their roster?
Bust: Toby Gerhart, RB
Maybe he turns into the workhorse for this team, but I'm not buying it yet. Even if he does turn into the workhorse, I'm not sure he puts up the numbers necessary to warrant his fifth round selection. He's great for around the goal line, but it's fair to question how often the Jags will even wind up there this year. It also wouldn't surprise me if some kind of running back by committee develops with Gerhart, Jordan Todman, and Storm Johnson. This will be Gerhart's first full time starting gig after backing up Adrian Peterson, but I don't think he's the answer in the backfield for the Jags.
Sleeper: Blake Bortles, QB
This all hinges on if the Jags are serious about their whole "redshirting" of Bortles. Supposedly, they will make Bortles sit for an entire year, allowing Chad Henne to play the Jags into last place. If the front office ever wakes up, however, and puts Bortles in, I think he could have an outstanding rookie year even with the lack of weapons on the Jags. He's the best QB to be drafted in the past two years and the Jags were smart to take him so high. If the Jags allow him to play a full 16 games, I think he finishes in the top 12 for fantasy QBs. Pretty good for a guy that might go undrafted in your league.
Bottom Line
This team is all about the future. Like I said, if the redshirt thing is true, then the Jags will be a true contender for the number one overall pick this year. Unless Bortles emerges, I would stay away from anyone on this roster.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: None
The Titans and Jags are almost exactly alike. New RB situation, veteran QB preventing talented rookie from playing, skilled but inconsistent WRs, and bad defenses.
Bust: Any Titans WR
The three fantasy relevant ones on this roster are Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and Nate Washington. Wright might be considered for PPR leagues, but he still only had two TDs last year on 94 receptions. Hunter probably has the most potential out of this group, but people were saying the same thing last year and he didn't perform. Washington has a good game here or there, but nothing to write home about. I don't think any of them excel and probably cancel out any significant numbers that any one of them might get. Hunter would probably be the one to own out of this group considering his ceiling is highest, but I wouldn't feel good about any of these guys.
Sleeper: Delanie Walker, TE
Again, I remind you to wait on TE if you can't grab Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, or Rob Gronkowski. After playing second fiddle to Vernon Davis for years in San Francisco, Walker finally got his chance at the full time starting job in Tennessee last year. He wound up with 60 catches, 571 yards, and six TDs. That was good for 12th among TEs last year for fantasy points, meaning he could be a starter in a 12 team league. Ken Whisenhunt comes over from the TE happy Chargers and I wouldn't be surprised if he brings some of that TE emphasis with him. Walker's not the biggest or fastest of all guys, but he can put up numbers if given the chance. I think he improves on his numbers from last year and moves up into the top 10 for TEs.
Bottom Line
Like the Jags, this team is all about the future. Bishop Sankey and Hunter might turn into early rounders in a couple years, but for now, it's best to look elsewhere for solid fantasy talent, though I think Sankey puts up decent numbers this year.
Matty O
Sunday, August 10, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Down year in 2013 aside, Rice has always been one of the top backs taken, particularly in PPR with all the checkdowns and screens Joe Flacco throws. The difference is that this year he can be drafted for cheap. Rice is playing this preseason, but cannot play the first two weeks of the season so you should prepare for that if you are drafting him, intending to use him as a starter. If you're doing a standard league, then it's fair to be less optimistic about Rice, but he averaged 11.87 points per game last year in PPR, mainly due to his receptions. RB1 numbers will be hard to match, but you could do worse than picking Rice in the middle rounds.
Bust: Rice, RB
The above was the good, but there is a lot of risk with Rice here. As already mentioned, he's already two games of production behind anybody else. During that time, it's not out of the question that Bernard Pierce could establish himself as the go to guy, or at least turn the backfield into a frustrating timeshare. He's getting up there in age for running backs, and certainly up there in touches of the ball so perhaps last year was the start of his decline. The Baltimore offensive line is average, so without his quick cuts, he could be looking at another struggling season. He has a better chance this year to outplay his low draft position, but with already being two games behind, competing with an established backup, and running behind an okay line, it's possible Rice fades during this 2014 fantasy season.
Sleeper: Steve Smith, WR
Similar to Stevie Johnson, I like when productive number one WRs come over from one team to be the second or third option on their new team. Normally, the season why they're not the WR1 is because there are established players ahead of them. This doesn't mean, however, that their skills have diminished. It's truly amazing that Smith has been able to post seven 1,000 yard seasons with the numerous and poor quality QBs that have come through Carolina. Now he becomes a possession kind of guy as the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones make the deep plays. He has a low ceiling, but a low floor as well. Given that he's going in the 10th round or later, I think he makes for a nice pickup.
Bottom Line
The Ravens have a lot of uncertainty going into this year. Their backfield is unclear once Rice comes back. Flacco needs to improve on a down year last year. How will Dennis Pitta fare coming back from a season hampered by injury? Will this defense go back to being elite?
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green was a big reason, if not the reason, why Andy Dalton just got a huge contract extension. Green has turned into one of the top five receivers in the game, and should be drafted as such. He has no injury concerns, can kill a defense deep, and puts up great reception numbers for those PPR league people. He, along with Calvin Johnson and Demariyus Thomas are probably the safest WRs, and maybe safest players you can draft. Second rounder for standard, end of the first in a 12 team PPR.
Bust: Giovani Bernard, RB
This has nothing to do with his skill, but has a lot to do with one Jeremy Hill, who was drafted this past spring. Taken in the second round, Hill is sure to find some playing time this year in this offense. He's a between the tackles kind of guy who could become the Bengals' goal line back. Consider also that despite the hype and production of Bernard last year, BenJarvus Green-Ellis still saw 220 carries. Hill may get a similar workload, and BJGE is still on the roster so some touches could be in store for him as well. The good news for Gio is he will be the only one catching passes out of the backfield for this team, which could save his value in PPR. The upside is there, but he will have to do the most with the limited touches he receives.
Sleeper: Andy Dalton, QB
The Red Rocket just can't seem to get any love. Despite finishing fifth in fantasy this year, he's ranked outside the top 12, meaning he won't be any team's starter. Last year was his first 4,000+ yard season and his 33 TD passes were third most behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. He lit the world on fire last year from Weeks 6-8 as he threw for 1,034 yards and 11 TDs. His interceptions (20) could use to come down a bit, but I think he should be viewed more as a QB1 than a QB2. Drafting Dalton late will allow you to build depth for the rest of your team.
Bottom Line
The favorites of the division, the backfield situation will be one to keep a close eye on. Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu may emerge as a WR2. Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert are both great players, but since the Bengals actively use both, it's hard to determine production week from week. This defensive unit should be great once again.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
It's hard to find studs on this team because everyone is basically new and Josh Gordon is facing a season long suspension. Jordan Cameron is possible, but he tailed off last year and Norv Turner is gone.
Bust: Ben Tate, RB
Despite being a backup RB, Tate has been injured recently more often than not. It's very rare for a backup to be consistently struggling with injury. Now he starts Week 1 as the starting RB, which is bad news for his durability. Without Gordon, teams will undoubtedly stack the box, allowing Tate to be teed off on by linebackers and safeties. Draftee Terrance West has also gotten a lot of hype to take carries away from Tate, even if he stays healthy. In West's final year at Towson, he ran for 2,509 yards and got a ridiculous 41 TDs. I can't care who you play for or against, that's insane. Tate is going in the third which is far too high to risk a back like this.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
File this under the idea that someone has to catch the ball for this team. While we don't know for how long, it's safe to say that Gordon will miss some time this year. Hard to hype this guy beyond that. His best year was in 2012 when he caught 51 yards for 533 yards and four TDs. Not that impressive, though he was the third option on the Bengals at the time. He's a small guy (5'7") and will likely play out of the slot. He might find some value in PPR leagues as he will likely be assigned to running short, quick routes for easy throws from Dalton. Can't give him a ringing endorsement, but for those in 14 team PPR leagues, he may provide some value.
Bottom Line
There are so many new faces on this team that I really wouldn't be comfortable drafting any of them. I think West gives you the most upside, but he's an unproven rookie from a small school. Johnny Manziel will always be a hot debate to how he does, but I think he will struggle this year. There's a lack of skill players around him and his passing decision making will get him into trouble in 2014. The defense has improved and should finish in the top 10 if they can force more turnovers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB
While he might not look as physically imposing as a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, Brown has quietly become one of the better WRs in the league. He runs every route in the book, has elite quickness, and can turn a five yard slant into a 70 yard TD. Emmanuel Sanders is now in Denver, opening up more catches and looks for Brown. He never had less than five catches last year and should be a PPR monster once again. He's a top five PPR WR and could easily finish in the top three.
Big Ben doesn't have the upside like Brown or Bell, but he is one of those reliable options that will get you what you expect more often than not. Around 4,000 yards, decent TD total, and average INT total is what Ben will give you. He's probably the best backup fantasy QB you can have, but you can justify him as a starter if you loaded up on skill positions earlier in your draft. Injury will always be a concern because of his tendency to hold onto the ball to make a play, but he's got the body to endure the hits. He's a great option given his draft position.
Once Bell got the start in Week 4, he never looked back. He churned out a nice rookie year with 860 yards and eight TDs. He also tacked on 45 receptions which was nice for those PPR-ers. Some might be concerned with LaGarrette Blount coming off a good year in New England to become Bell's backup. I wouldn't be too worried as Blount's opportunity only came because the Patriots' backfield was an absolute mess last year. Bell is the guy and should only cede carries when tired, and possibly in goal line situations, though Bell is large enough to handle that duty as well. His value is boosted in PPR leagues.
Bust: None
Have to go with none here simply because Brown and Bell are the only ones going high this year. I've already expressed my confidence in these two so a bust is hard to find in Pittsburgh.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The opportunity is here for the speedy second year man as Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery are gone, leaving the WR2 slot open to Wheaton. He didn't get a lot of experience last year as the WR corps was crowded, but should have plenty of chances to earn his way into two WR sets. He's not very big, but he's quick and fast which works in the Steelers short, quick pass offense. He could put up some nice reception totals depending on how the Steelers use him. This prediction is all about his upside as he did very little last year with very little opportunity.
Bottom Line
The Steelers will continue to use the quick, short pass offense to try and protect Big Ben from himself, forcing him to get the ball out early. Heath Miller might be a nice draft choice late at TE. While the Steelers defense would like to, and are building towards being better, I think they once again struggle as a fantasy defense.
Matty O
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Down year in 2013 aside, Rice has always been one of the top backs taken, particularly in PPR with all the checkdowns and screens Joe Flacco throws. The difference is that this year he can be drafted for cheap. Rice is playing this preseason, but cannot play the first two weeks of the season so you should prepare for that if you are drafting him, intending to use him as a starter. If you're doing a standard league, then it's fair to be less optimistic about Rice, but he averaged 11.87 points per game last year in PPR, mainly due to his receptions. RB1 numbers will be hard to match, but you could do worse than picking Rice in the middle rounds.
Bust: Rice, RB
The above was the good, but there is a lot of risk with Rice here. As already mentioned, he's already two games of production behind anybody else. During that time, it's not out of the question that Bernard Pierce could establish himself as the go to guy, or at least turn the backfield into a frustrating timeshare. He's getting up there in age for running backs, and certainly up there in touches of the ball so perhaps last year was the start of his decline. The Baltimore offensive line is average, so without his quick cuts, he could be looking at another struggling season. He has a better chance this year to outplay his low draft position, but with already being two games behind, competing with an established backup, and running behind an okay line, it's possible Rice fades during this 2014 fantasy season.
Sleeper: Steve Smith, WR
Similar to Stevie Johnson, I like when productive number one WRs come over from one team to be the second or third option on their new team. Normally, the season why they're not the WR1 is because there are established players ahead of them. This doesn't mean, however, that their skills have diminished. It's truly amazing that Smith has been able to post seven 1,000 yard seasons with the numerous and poor quality QBs that have come through Carolina. Now he becomes a possession kind of guy as the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones make the deep plays. He has a low ceiling, but a low floor as well. Given that he's going in the 10th round or later, I think he makes for a nice pickup.
Bottom Line
The Ravens have a lot of uncertainty going into this year. Their backfield is unclear once Rice comes back. Flacco needs to improve on a down year last year. How will Dennis Pitta fare coming back from a season hampered by injury? Will this defense go back to being elite?
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green was a big reason, if not the reason, why Andy Dalton just got a huge contract extension. Green has turned into one of the top five receivers in the game, and should be drafted as such. He has no injury concerns, can kill a defense deep, and puts up great reception numbers for those PPR league people. He, along with Calvin Johnson and Demariyus Thomas are probably the safest WRs, and maybe safest players you can draft. Second rounder for standard, end of the first in a 12 team PPR.
Bust: Giovani Bernard, RB
This has nothing to do with his skill, but has a lot to do with one Jeremy Hill, who was drafted this past spring. Taken in the second round, Hill is sure to find some playing time this year in this offense. He's a between the tackles kind of guy who could become the Bengals' goal line back. Consider also that despite the hype and production of Bernard last year, BenJarvus Green-Ellis still saw 220 carries. Hill may get a similar workload, and BJGE is still on the roster so some touches could be in store for him as well. The good news for Gio is he will be the only one catching passes out of the backfield for this team, which could save his value in PPR. The upside is there, but he will have to do the most with the limited touches he receives.
Sleeper: Andy Dalton, QB
The Red Rocket just can't seem to get any love. Despite finishing fifth in fantasy this year, he's ranked outside the top 12, meaning he won't be any team's starter. Last year was his first 4,000+ yard season and his 33 TD passes were third most behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. He lit the world on fire last year from Weeks 6-8 as he threw for 1,034 yards and 11 TDs. His interceptions (20) could use to come down a bit, but I think he should be viewed more as a QB1 than a QB2. Drafting Dalton late will allow you to build depth for the rest of your team.
Bottom Line
The favorites of the division, the backfield situation will be one to keep a close eye on. Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu may emerge as a WR2. Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert are both great players, but since the Bengals actively use both, it's hard to determine production week from week. This defensive unit should be great once again.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
It's hard to find studs on this team because everyone is basically new and Josh Gordon is facing a season long suspension. Jordan Cameron is possible, but he tailed off last year and Norv Turner is gone.
Bust: Ben Tate, RB
Despite being a backup RB, Tate has been injured recently more often than not. It's very rare for a backup to be consistently struggling with injury. Now he starts Week 1 as the starting RB, which is bad news for his durability. Without Gordon, teams will undoubtedly stack the box, allowing Tate to be teed off on by linebackers and safeties. Draftee Terrance West has also gotten a lot of hype to take carries away from Tate, even if he stays healthy. In West's final year at Towson, he ran for 2,509 yards and got a ridiculous 41 TDs. I can't care who you play for or against, that's insane. Tate is going in the third which is far too high to risk a back like this.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
File this under the idea that someone has to catch the ball for this team. While we don't know for how long, it's safe to say that Gordon will miss some time this year. Hard to hype this guy beyond that. His best year was in 2012 when he caught 51 yards for 533 yards and four TDs. Not that impressive, though he was the third option on the Bengals at the time. He's a small guy (5'7") and will likely play out of the slot. He might find some value in PPR leagues as he will likely be assigned to running short, quick routes for easy throws from Dalton. Can't give him a ringing endorsement, but for those in 14 team PPR leagues, he may provide some value.
Bottom Line
There are so many new faces on this team that I really wouldn't be comfortable drafting any of them. I think West gives you the most upside, but he's an unproven rookie from a small school. Johnny Manziel will always be a hot debate to how he does, but I think he will struggle this year. There's a lack of skill players around him and his passing decision making will get him into trouble in 2014. The defense has improved and should finish in the top 10 if they can force more turnovers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB
While he might not look as physically imposing as a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, Brown has quietly become one of the better WRs in the league. He runs every route in the book, has elite quickness, and can turn a five yard slant into a 70 yard TD. Emmanuel Sanders is now in Denver, opening up more catches and looks for Brown. He never had less than five catches last year and should be a PPR monster once again. He's a top five PPR WR and could easily finish in the top three.
Big Ben doesn't have the upside like Brown or Bell, but he is one of those reliable options that will get you what you expect more often than not. Around 4,000 yards, decent TD total, and average INT total is what Ben will give you. He's probably the best backup fantasy QB you can have, but you can justify him as a starter if you loaded up on skill positions earlier in your draft. Injury will always be a concern because of his tendency to hold onto the ball to make a play, but he's got the body to endure the hits. He's a great option given his draft position.
Once Bell got the start in Week 4, he never looked back. He churned out a nice rookie year with 860 yards and eight TDs. He also tacked on 45 receptions which was nice for those PPR-ers. Some might be concerned with LaGarrette Blount coming off a good year in New England to become Bell's backup. I wouldn't be too worried as Blount's opportunity only came because the Patriots' backfield was an absolute mess last year. Bell is the guy and should only cede carries when tired, and possibly in goal line situations, though Bell is large enough to handle that duty as well. His value is boosted in PPR leagues.
Bust: None
Have to go with none here simply because Brown and Bell are the only ones going high this year. I've already expressed my confidence in these two so a bust is hard to find in Pittsburgh.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The opportunity is here for the speedy second year man as Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery are gone, leaving the WR2 slot open to Wheaton. He didn't get a lot of experience last year as the WR corps was crowded, but should have plenty of chances to earn his way into two WR sets. He's not very big, but he's quick and fast which works in the Steelers short, quick pass offense. He could put up some nice reception totals depending on how the Steelers use him. This prediction is all about his upside as he did very little last year with very little opportunity.
Bottom Line
The Steelers will continue to use the quick, short pass offense to try and protect Big Ben from himself, forcing him to get the ball out early. Heath Miller might be a nice draft choice late at TE. While the Steelers defense would like to, and are building towards being better, I think they once again struggle as a fantasy defense.
Matty O
Thursday, August 7, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC North
Chicago Bears
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Matt Forte, RB
After an injury plagued and mediocre rookie season, Jeffery exploded in his second year using his 6'3", 216 lb. frame to his advantage to rack up 1,421 yards and seven TDs in 2013. While his best game came when Josh McCown was under center (Week 13 @ Minnesota, 249 yards, 2 TDs), he still performed well when Cutler was there. Mark Trestman's system puts any QB in a position to succeed, while allowing both Marshall and Jeffery to get theirs. Marshall is the more consistent guy, particularly when Cutler is under center, but Jeffery has now established himself as a legitimate threat in this offense.
Forte, particularly in PPR, has to be considered one of the top three picks off the board along with Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Heck, you could make an argument he should go one overall. 2014 provides even more optimism as he finally proved he could score TDs, which was something that held him back fantasy wise and made a guy like Michael Bush relevant. Those days are gone as he adds scoring ability with a runner who is a near lock for 1,000 yards and 50+ catches. He had his highest reception total of his career with Trestman in 2013 and will look to match or improve upon the 74 he hauled in last year. Draft him early with confidence.
Bust: Jeffery, WR
Maybe bust is the wrong word, but I don't think he'll play up to where he's being drafted. Jeffery is currently one of the top 10 WRs off the board and I think that's too high for him. I still think he'll have a decent year, but there's a few things to keep in mind here. For starters, he's the deep ball threat of the two wideouts which means he's more likely to win you a week, but also more likely to put up a dud. While he might have put up 20+ points three times last year, he also put up seven or less seven times last year. Compare that to Marshall who had three such games last year. Also, unlike last year, Jeffery is now a known weapon out wide so more defenses may put their top corner on him or shift the defense his way more rather than towards Marshall. Again, top 25, even top 20 numbers are probable, but top 10 numbers might be difficult to duplicate in 2014 with Cutler under center.
Sleeper: Cutler, QB
When looking at fantasy QBs, you could care less who they throw to. Thankfully for Cutler, he was Jeffery, Marshall, Forte, and Martellus Bennett to throw to. Cutler was thriving under Trestman's system prior to his injury throwing for 1,630 yards and 12 TDs. The interceptions also came with, but that's something that you have to take if you own Cutler. Similar to a Brett Favre or Tony Romo type QB, no system or any amount of weapons will change their gun slinging mentality. If you can live with the picks, then Cutler will make a nice addition to anyone's fantasy squad. Cutler is currently the 15th ranked QB, which is really low given the weapons around him. He's proven he can put up big numbers (see: 2008 in Denver, 2009 in Chicago) so it's fair to say he is poised for a big year. Given his draft position, you can load up at the other positions and still grab a great starting QB.
Bottom Line
Look for the passing game to once again explode in Chicago. The only significant concern is if Cutler goes down. They won the backup QB lottery last year as Josh McCown played out of his mind, but you certainly can't expect that every year. If Cutler goes, I think Marshall and Forte stay relevant, but Jeffery could drop off a cliff. Best to just pray that doesn't happen.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, aka Megatron, is the gold standard for WRs. He has size, speed, and chemistry with his QB, making him the consensus number one WR off the board for a few years now. Bothered by knee and finger injuries, including missing a game Week 5, Megatron still finished as the third best fantasy WR. He's a lock to finish top three and should be the first WR taken in all drafts. In a PPR setting, I could see him going as high as four once Forte, McCoy, and Charles are off the board. Last year I escaped the RB minefield that was the first round by taking Megatron and finishing first in the regular season of my PPR league. He's an extremely safe pick.
The guy throwing him the ball, Stafford, is a rich man's Cutler. He'll put up more yards and TDs, but he also has that reckless mentality and makes some throws that just make you cringe. If it weren't for his decision making, he could easily finish top three year in and year out, but his interception totals have been and will continue to be, high. The good news is the Lions, for the first time in a while, made a real effort to acquire more weapons than just Megatron. They got Golden Tate from Seattle and drafted Eric Ebron in the first round. He has the tools around him to turn in a top five season if he can clean up the turnovers.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB, Sleeper: Joique Bell, RB
Explosiveness, big play ability, inconsistency, injury prone. These are all adjectives that can be used to describe Reggie Bush. Bush, one of the more dangerous players in open space, can quickly give owners headaches by putting up dud performances every other week, or being unavailable to play. I had him a couple years ago and you would literally hold your breath every time you saw him get hit in a game. The one saving grace that Bush has is his ability to catch the football. In PPR leagues, his value is boosted substantially due to the high volume of catches he brings in (54 in 14 games last year).
Unfortunately for Bush, his backup, Joique Bell performed very well when his number was called. Bell signed an extension this year and looks to be a larger part of this offense. Given Bush's injury history, I wouldn't be surprised. A running back committee will probably be established to start the year, but I could see Bell earning the job away from Bush by mid season. Bush will still break off some long ones, but Bell will see more playing time and have more opportunity to rack up points. Bell could be one of the best values this year.
Bottom Line
Even with new head coach Jim Caldwell, expect the Lions' passing attack to be one of the best in the NFL. There will probably be a three player rotation at tight end in Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joseph Fauria so it will be hard to determine a clear starter there. I like Ebron's potential, but it would take an injury to both Pettigrew and Fauria for him to make an impact this year.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR
Mr. Discount Double Check, Rodgers is back from an injury shortened season, looking to finish as one of the top three QBs in the league in 2014. A lot of the same weapons come back for him so I don't expect him to miss a beat. Lacy is now an established threat in the backfield, making it harder for defenses to simply defend the pass and not worry about the run. The fact that Rodgers came back to play at the end of last year should alleviate any concerns about his injury. Expect top three production out of Rodgers this year.
I did not see Lacy's fantastic rookie year coming. I thought he was alright in college and wasn't sure how his game would transition to the pros. Well, he ran for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs, despite having Matt Flynn in charge as his QB. Probably the most surprising stat is the fact that Lacy managed to haul in 35 receptions last year, despite his big size. With Rodgers back, his receptions should only go up. Lacy also has the goal line back duties sewn up, which is rare seeing as how most teams have a designated goal line back nowadays. Lacy should go top 10 overall, and should improve upon his rookie campaign with a healthy Rodgers for all 16 games.
With the departure of Greg Jennings to Minnesota, Nelson stepped up in a big way last year finishing with 1,314 yards and 8 TDs. This was with some Flynn thrown in there and coming back from an injury shortened 2012 campaign. Nelson is a PPR monster, particularly when Rodgers is on the field. In their final division clinching win over the Bears last year, Nelson was targeted 16 times, hauling in 10 of those passes. Like everyone on this Packers team, Nelson's numbers should only improve with Rodgers back at full health. Nelson is a safe pick as the number one guy in this offense.
Bust: Randall Cobb, WR
Cobb became a fantasy sensation two years ago as he went for nearly 1,000 yards and caught eight TDs. He started off last year playing well the first two games, struggled for two games, then broke his leg in Week 6 in Baltimore. He's a talented enough player, but the boom or bust label is there when it comes to this guy, and his size (5'10", 192 lbs.) is a bit of a concern. He's not going to lead the team in targets week to week (see: Nelson) and is far from a red zone threat. His size makes me wonder if his injury last year was just a one time thing or the start of a recurring trend. Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Keenan Allen are all being taken after him; all of whom are safer, potentially better options.
Sleeper: Jarrett Boykin, WR
For those that played last year, you probably remember this name. Boykin, while inconsistent, had a smattering of nice games, most of them with backup Matt Flynn. With James Jones now in Oakland, Boykin is the clear number three WR behind Nelson and Cobb. While I don't think he sets the world on fire, he is being taken behind the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, and Rueben Randle. He makes a nice FLEX play in PPR, and instantly becomes a WR2 if Cobb or Nelson were to go down.
Bottom Line
The Packers as a whole should be better this year. It's nothing short of miraculous that they won the NFC North last year given the injuries that they had. If Clay Matthews can stay healthy, this defense could become fantasy relevant once again. The passing game is safe to invest in here, as well as Lacy on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
Peterson is similar to Megatron in that no matter what is going on around them (change in QB, change in coaching staff), you still expect them to put up great numbers. After a 2,000+ yard season in 2012, Peterson had a "down" year with 1,266 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games. He's one of the few backs that has the backfield to himself and is the centerpiece of this offense. While his yardage totals were down, he once again achieved double digit TDs, something he's done every year in the NFL (including his 12 game 2011 season). He did struggle a bit with injuries down the stretch last year, but I wouldn't be too worried about that. While he's no longer the consensus number one RB with players like Charles, McCoy, and Forte catching up, he's still one of the best in the league and should go in the top five or six picks overall.
Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
This is a case of hype outweighing the truth. Everyone fell in love with Patterson last year, mainly because of his explosiveness on special teams in the return game. His offensive stats were not impressive at all, however. He had one breakout game in Week 14 where he went for 141 yards and a TD. Apart from that though, very little was done. I do think he improves upon his offensive numbers in his second year as a pro, but him being taken ahead of proven guys like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston is too high. Even taking him ahead of other high upside guys like Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom are on explosive offenses, is ill advised. If he falls to me, I'll take him, but I think he disappoints a lot of people in the fantasy community this year.
Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Norv Turner. In truth, I could stop this segment right there. His recent success with tight ends is impressive. As the head coach of the Chargers from 2007-2012, Antonio Gates played his best football. As the offensive coordinator for the Browns last year, Jordan Cameron made everyone's sleeper prediction look good. Now he gets Rudolph, a 6'6", 259 lb. beast. Rudolph's less than impressive numbers have mainly been due to the fact that he's never really been a focus of their offense, and their QB situation has never really been stable. Regardless of who gets the QB start, I think Norv will make it a point to get Rudolph involved. He did have nine TDs in 2012 so his red zone threat has already been established. If Norv can get him more involved between the 20s, this could be a great year for Rudolph. He won't cost you a high draft pick either.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are clearly at the bottom of this division, but they're making progress. It will be interesting to see when, or if, the coaching staff allows rookie Teddy Bridgewater to take over the starting QB job. After years of Christian Ponder and now Matt Cassel, I think Bridgewater would be a welcome sight under center. He might even make a nice matchup start once the bye weeks start.
Matty O
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Matt Forte, RB
After an injury plagued and mediocre rookie season, Jeffery exploded in his second year using his 6'3", 216 lb. frame to his advantage to rack up 1,421 yards and seven TDs in 2013. While his best game came when Josh McCown was under center (Week 13 @ Minnesota, 249 yards, 2 TDs), he still performed well when Cutler was there. Mark Trestman's system puts any QB in a position to succeed, while allowing both Marshall and Jeffery to get theirs. Marshall is the more consistent guy, particularly when Cutler is under center, but Jeffery has now established himself as a legitimate threat in this offense.
Forte, particularly in PPR, has to be considered one of the top three picks off the board along with Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Heck, you could make an argument he should go one overall. 2014 provides even more optimism as he finally proved he could score TDs, which was something that held him back fantasy wise and made a guy like Michael Bush relevant. Those days are gone as he adds scoring ability with a runner who is a near lock for 1,000 yards and 50+ catches. He had his highest reception total of his career with Trestman in 2013 and will look to match or improve upon the 74 he hauled in last year. Draft him early with confidence.
Bust: Jeffery, WR
Maybe bust is the wrong word, but I don't think he'll play up to where he's being drafted. Jeffery is currently one of the top 10 WRs off the board and I think that's too high for him. I still think he'll have a decent year, but there's a few things to keep in mind here. For starters, he's the deep ball threat of the two wideouts which means he's more likely to win you a week, but also more likely to put up a dud. While he might have put up 20+ points three times last year, he also put up seven or less seven times last year. Compare that to Marshall who had three such games last year. Also, unlike last year, Jeffery is now a known weapon out wide so more defenses may put their top corner on him or shift the defense his way more rather than towards Marshall. Again, top 25, even top 20 numbers are probable, but top 10 numbers might be difficult to duplicate in 2014 with Cutler under center.
Sleeper: Cutler, QB
When looking at fantasy QBs, you could care less who they throw to. Thankfully for Cutler, he was Jeffery, Marshall, Forte, and Martellus Bennett to throw to. Cutler was thriving under Trestman's system prior to his injury throwing for 1,630 yards and 12 TDs. The interceptions also came with, but that's something that you have to take if you own Cutler. Similar to a Brett Favre or Tony Romo type QB, no system or any amount of weapons will change their gun slinging mentality. If you can live with the picks, then Cutler will make a nice addition to anyone's fantasy squad. Cutler is currently the 15th ranked QB, which is really low given the weapons around him. He's proven he can put up big numbers (see: 2008 in Denver, 2009 in Chicago) so it's fair to say he is poised for a big year. Given his draft position, you can load up at the other positions and still grab a great starting QB.
Bottom Line
Look for the passing game to once again explode in Chicago. The only significant concern is if Cutler goes down. They won the backup QB lottery last year as Josh McCown played out of his mind, but you certainly can't expect that every year. If Cutler goes, I think Marshall and Forte stay relevant, but Jeffery could drop off a cliff. Best to just pray that doesn't happen.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, aka Megatron, is the gold standard for WRs. He has size, speed, and chemistry with his QB, making him the consensus number one WR off the board for a few years now. Bothered by knee and finger injuries, including missing a game Week 5, Megatron still finished as the third best fantasy WR. He's a lock to finish top three and should be the first WR taken in all drafts. In a PPR setting, I could see him going as high as four once Forte, McCoy, and Charles are off the board. Last year I escaped the RB minefield that was the first round by taking Megatron and finishing first in the regular season of my PPR league. He's an extremely safe pick.
The guy throwing him the ball, Stafford, is a rich man's Cutler. He'll put up more yards and TDs, but he also has that reckless mentality and makes some throws that just make you cringe. If it weren't for his decision making, he could easily finish top three year in and year out, but his interception totals have been and will continue to be, high. The good news is the Lions, for the first time in a while, made a real effort to acquire more weapons than just Megatron. They got Golden Tate from Seattle and drafted Eric Ebron in the first round. He has the tools around him to turn in a top five season if he can clean up the turnovers.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB, Sleeper: Joique Bell, RB
Explosiveness, big play ability, inconsistency, injury prone. These are all adjectives that can be used to describe Reggie Bush. Bush, one of the more dangerous players in open space, can quickly give owners headaches by putting up dud performances every other week, or being unavailable to play. I had him a couple years ago and you would literally hold your breath every time you saw him get hit in a game. The one saving grace that Bush has is his ability to catch the football. In PPR leagues, his value is boosted substantially due to the high volume of catches he brings in (54 in 14 games last year).
Unfortunately for Bush, his backup, Joique Bell performed very well when his number was called. Bell signed an extension this year and looks to be a larger part of this offense. Given Bush's injury history, I wouldn't be surprised. A running back committee will probably be established to start the year, but I could see Bell earning the job away from Bush by mid season. Bush will still break off some long ones, but Bell will see more playing time and have more opportunity to rack up points. Bell could be one of the best values this year.
Bottom Line
Even with new head coach Jim Caldwell, expect the Lions' passing attack to be one of the best in the NFL. There will probably be a three player rotation at tight end in Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joseph Fauria so it will be hard to determine a clear starter there. I like Ebron's potential, but it would take an injury to both Pettigrew and Fauria for him to make an impact this year.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR
Mr. Discount Double Check, Rodgers is back from an injury shortened season, looking to finish as one of the top three QBs in the league in 2014. A lot of the same weapons come back for him so I don't expect him to miss a beat. Lacy is now an established threat in the backfield, making it harder for defenses to simply defend the pass and not worry about the run. The fact that Rodgers came back to play at the end of last year should alleviate any concerns about his injury. Expect top three production out of Rodgers this year.
I did not see Lacy's fantastic rookie year coming. I thought he was alright in college and wasn't sure how his game would transition to the pros. Well, he ran for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs, despite having Matt Flynn in charge as his QB. Probably the most surprising stat is the fact that Lacy managed to haul in 35 receptions last year, despite his big size. With Rodgers back, his receptions should only go up. Lacy also has the goal line back duties sewn up, which is rare seeing as how most teams have a designated goal line back nowadays. Lacy should go top 10 overall, and should improve upon his rookie campaign with a healthy Rodgers for all 16 games.
With the departure of Greg Jennings to Minnesota, Nelson stepped up in a big way last year finishing with 1,314 yards and 8 TDs. This was with some Flynn thrown in there and coming back from an injury shortened 2012 campaign. Nelson is a PPR monster, particularly when Rodgers is on the field. In their final division clinching win over the Bears last year, Nelson was targeted 16 times, hauling in 10 of those passes. Like everyone on this Packers team, Nelson's numbers should only improve with Rodgers back at full health. Nelson is a safe pick as the number one guy in this offense.
Bust: Randall Cobb, WR
Cobb became a fantasy sensation two years ago as he went for nearly 1,000 yards and caught eight TDs. He started off last year playing well the first two games, struggled for two games, then broke his leg in Week 6 in Baltimore. He's a talented enough player, but the boom or bust label is there when it comes to this guy, and his size (5'10", 192 lbs.) is a bit of a concern. He's not going to lead the team in targets week to week (see: Nelson) and is far from a red zone threat. His size makes me wonder if his injury last year was just a one time thing or the start of a recurring trend. Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Keenan Allen are all being taken after him; all of whom are safer, potentially better options.
Sleeper: Jarrett Boykin, WR
For those that played last year, you probably remember this name. Boykin, while inconsistent, had a smattering of nice games, most of them with backup Matt Flynn. With James Jones now in Oakland, Boykin is the clear number three WR behind Nelson and Cobb. While I don't think he sets the world on fire, he is being taken behind the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, and Rueben Randle. He makes a nice FLEX play in PPR, and instantly becomes a WR2 if Cobb or Nelson were to go down.
Bottom Line
The Packers as a whole should be better this year. It's nothing short of miraculous that they won the NFC North last year given the injuries that they had. If Clay Matthews can stay healthy, this defense could become fantasy relevant once again. The passing game is safe to invest in here, as well as Lacy on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
Peterson is similar to Megatron in that no matter what is going on around them (change in QB, change in coaching staff), you still expect them to put up great numbers. After a 2,000+ yard season in 2012, Peterson had a "down" year with 1,266 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games. He's one of the few backs that has the backfield to himself and is the centerpiece of this offense. While his yardage totals were down, he once again achieved double digit TDs, something he's done every year in the NFL (including his 12 game 2011 season). He did struggle a bit with injuries down the stretch last year, but I wouldn't be too worried about that. While he's no longer the consensus number one RB with players like Charles, McCoy, and Forte catching up, he's still one of the best in the league and should go in the top five or six picks overall.
Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
This is a case of hype outweighing the truth. Everyone fell in love with Patterson last year, mainly because of his explosiveness on special teams in the return game. His offensive stats were not impressive at all, however. He had one breakout game in Week 14 where he went for 141 yards and a TD. Apart from that though, very little was done. I do think he improves upon his offensive numbers in his second year as a pro, but him being taken ahead of proven guys like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston is too high. Even taking him ahead of other high upside guys like Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom are on explosive offenses, is ill advised. If he falls to me, I'll take him, but I think he disappoints a lot of people in the fantasy community this year.
Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Norv Turner. In truth, I could stop this segment right there. His recent success with tight ends is impressive. As the head coach of the Chargers from 2007-2012, Antonio Gates played his best football. As the offensive coordinator for the Browns last year, Jordan Cameron made everyone's sleeper prediction look good. Now he gets Rudolph, a 6'6", 259 lb. beast. Rudolph's less than impressive numbers have mainly been due to the fact that he's never really been a focus of their offense, and their QB situation has never really been stable. Regardless of who gets the QB start, I think Norv will make it a point to get Rudolph involved. He did have nine TDs in 2012 so his red zone threat has already been established. If Norv can get him more involved between the 20s, this could be a great year for Rudolph. He won't cost you a high draft pick either.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are clearly at the bottom of this division, but they're making progress. It will be interesting to see when, or if, the coaching staff allows rookie Teddy Bridgewater to take over the starting QB job. After years of Christian Ponder and now Matt Cassel, I think Bridgewater would be a welcome sight under center. He might even make a nice matchup start once the bye weeks start.
Matty O
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC West
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Julius Thomas, TE
What else can be said about Manning? Even at his advanced age (38), he's still one of the best, if not the best, QB in the league today. He has everything going for him with a great offensive line, weapons all around him, and the freedom to put everyone in a position to succeed. To be honest, I thought he was going to struggle after leaving Indy and having neck surgery. So, of course he has the best regular season a QB has ever had last year, becoming one of the most valuable fantasy assets in recent memory. Even with all the weapons around him, it will be hard to repeat last season (they play the NFC West this year), but he should still put up the best fantasy numbers by any QB. He'll cost you a higher pick than last year, but he's one of the safer options to match or outperform his draft position.
Thomas has, surprisingly quietly, turned into one of the best WRs in the league. While he might not have the public reputation of a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, he puts up the stats that prove he's at least in the top five WRs in the game. Even with all the mouths to feed on the Broncos, you can bet that Thomas will be able to get his. He finished second last year in fantasy points, with only Josh Gordon beating him out. Despite this, he's still ranked behind Megatron and I could see people being tempted to take someone like Dez, Julio Jones, or AJ Green ahead of Thomas. I would still probably take Megatron based on his track record, but would definitely take Thomas number two. He should have another great season.
Yes, the sample size is small, but J. Thomas is in the same mold of these big, physical, athletic tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Gronk), that have taken over the league as of late. Given his build and place in this offense, I think it's fair to expect great production going forward. J. Thomas, thanks to the potent WRs on the outside, will almost always have favorable matchups particularly in the middle of the field. He's money in the red zone, finishing with 12 TDs last year, third only to Vernon Davis and Graham among tight ends. He missed two games during the middle of the year last year, but finished perfectly fine. While he has room to improve, I still don't think he touches Graham or a healthy Gronk's numbers, but should settle in as the number two or three TE for fantasy this year.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
I've been going back and forth on Ball, and it's certainly possible he could have a good year (just look at Peyton's history with running backs), but I don't trust him as a top 15 back, which is where he's being drafted currently. He finished the year strong, but had a case of fumble-itis early on. The main reason he didn't see as much playing time as he should have was his poor pass protection, which is fairly important when your franchise QB is 38 and not the most fleet of foot. Moreno might be gone, but that doesn't automatically make him a better pass blocker. If he doesn't perform in that area, the coaching staff won't hesitate to pull back his snaps. Heck, he couldn't start over Knowshon Moreno last year who was pretty much a bust prior to 2013. The opportunity is there for Ball, given the explosiveness of this offense, but there are concerns.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Emmanuel Sanders would also fit this label, but let me use this space to hype up Latimer. Latimer is likely unknown due to the college team he played for (Indiana), but this guy is the real deal. Latimer is another big, strong WR (6'2", 215 lbs.) that will probably see limited snaps to start the year, but hopefully gets more responsibility later on in the year. Wes Welker has not exactly been a picture of health lately, so an injury there could open up room for Latimer in three WR sets. Latimer finished third in the Big Ten last year for receiving yards, topping 1,000 yards and racking up nine TDs. This sleeper prediction might be a year too soon, but if something happens to either Welker, D. Thomas, or Sanders, Latimer will be a hot commodity.
Bottom Line
Picking anyone in this offense is probably a good pick. I might be down on Ball, but like I said, the opportunity is there and it's possible he turns in a top 15 season. On the defensive side of the ball, you have to be excited about all the new acquisitions they made. They had their moments last year, but finished middle of the pack fantasy wise. I think they turn that around and are a safe bet to wind up as a top 10 fantasy defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Fantasy MVP from last year, Charles showed explosiveness throughout the year. As an added bonus, especially for those PPR people, he racked up 70 receptions as he became quite the security blanket for game manager Alex Smith. He is the center piece of their entire offense, which is extremely rare to say about a RB in this day and age. Knile Davis, the RB behind him, showed flashes of what he can do, but Charles should be able to keep that hype at bay for 2014. Charles will most likely be one of the first three picks in any draft, and deservedly so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
This unit came out of nowhere last year to finish as the top fantasy defense. Unfortunately, I don't think they stay there and even drop out of the top 15. For starters, they lost their top corner in Brandon Flowers to division rival San Diego. They scored a ridiculous 11 TDs, which will be extremely hard to repeat no matter the defense. They also put up some absolute duds down the stretch last year. They put in great performances in Weeks 14 and 15 against Washington and Oakland, but Washington had pretty much given up at that point and Oakland is hardly scary on offense. Around those performances, they put up -1 (Denver), -7 (San Diego), 1 (Denver), 0 (Indianapolis), 2 (San Diego). Ouch. And don't even bring up the disaster that was their playoff game. Oakland's offense should be better this year and Denver and San Diego will do what they do. I think the drop off could be extreme for this unit. I don't say this about many units coming off a big year, but I wouldn't even draft these guys.
Sleeper: De'Anthony Thomas, RB
I'm trying to avoid putting none in categories like I did last year, so I'll go with the highest upside guy on this team. While I don't truly see any real sleepers on this team, I could see Thomas going off in one or two games this year. He'll be one of the smaller guys on the field, but he is crazy fast and can break off a big one at any time. He's listed as a RB, but will more likely be used as a pass catcher than a runner. Screens and short passes with the hope of yards after catch is what you're hoping for with Thomas. He'll definitely see time as a returner for this team, but his offensive snaps will be limited. Look for a couple Tavon Austin-like performances from last year, where Thomas maybe gets only three or four touches, but turns them into long gains and TDs.
Bottom Line
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of optimism when it comes to this Chiefs team. Charles will still put up numbers, but there's little to be excited about beyond him. Surprisingly, they chose not to aggressively draft anything to help out the offensive side of the ball. That costs them this year.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
I know I said I didn't want to put none in these categories, but who would you put here? Maurice Jones-Drew is the only one who comes close, but his recent seasons haven't been anything close to great.
Bust: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
His recent seasons haven't been great and I don't think this one will be either. Even at a lower than normal draft position for him, I still don't think he's worth it. His best days are behind him, and he should concede carries to Darren McFadden and Latavius Murphy. MJD might become Oakland's goal line back, though you have to wonder how many chances he'll get down there. He'll be a decent FLEX fill in during bye weeks, and possibly even trade bait given the reputation of his name. Still, I would wait until late until considering him.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
Here's hoping for the 2012 Jones, not the 2013 Jones. In 2012, with Jordy Nelson missing time due to injury, Jones posted 784 yards and a surprising 14 TDs for the Packers. Obviously there is a significant downgrade at QB, but I could see Jones making noise this year. The Raiders will be trailing in a lot of games and Jones may avoid the other team's top corner as they put him on either Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. I certainly don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but someone has to catch the ball for the Raiders. Limited upside here, but could develop into the clear number one receiver for the Raiders.
Bottom Line
Lots of questions here for the Raiders. Who will be the starting QB? What will the WR depth chart look like? How will carries be split, if at all? Too many questions to feel safe about drafting anyone on this team. Someone could emerge from the backfield so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. While I wish no ill will on anyone, if McFadden or MJD were to get injured before the season started, that would certainly boost the other one's stock.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
After an atrocious 2012, Rivers bounced under new coach Mike McCoy in 2013 to finish 6th in fantasy points last year. Now in his second season with McCoy, I expect Rivers to maintain that level of success, if not eclipse that. He has great skill players around him and, as long as he takes care of the ball, should return to top 10 status this year at QB. He'll still make some head scratching decisions at times, but look for a more consistent Rivers in 2014.
Allen is one reason why Rivers will maintain his high ranking. Allen eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs as a rookie last year, despite doing next to nothing the first three games of the season (in fact, he wound up with one reception for negative four yards in Week 3 in Tennessee). He rebounded in a big way to become Rivers' favorite target down the stretch, and a big reason why the Chargers rallied to make the playoffs last year. Similar to J. Thomas of the Broncos, the sample size is indeed small, but given the system and the way Allen plays, he should be okay. Unlike Rivers' former favorite WR, Vincent Jackson, Allen is more of a possession, yards after catch guy rather than the downfield big play WR. He racks up plenty of targets and has even more value in PPR leagues. Draft him with confidence.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
16 games played by Mathews. That might have been the most surprising stat in the NFL last year. After being hyped coming out of Fresno State in the draft, Mathews has failed to live up to his potential due to his constant injury concerns. 12, 14, and 12 were his games played numbers before last year. To his credit, when he's healthy, he truly is a good RB. He proved it last year as he finished with 1,255 yards and seven total TDs, despite sharing time with Danny Woodhead. I just don't trust him not getting injured again. The timeshare with Woodhead is also a concern as Woodhead actually finished with more total TDs (eight), then Mathews last year. PPR league people might even take Woodhead above Mathews. If you do feel the need to draft him, it is an absolute must that you also draft Woodhead, and possibly even Donald Brown.
Sleeper: Ladarius Green, TE
Aka, the second coming of Antonio Gates. Green is 6'6", 240 lbs., and is faster and more athletic than Gates at this point in their careers. Gates is still there and will probably start the year listed as the "first" tight end. Prior to last year, however, Gates was showing signs of wearing down (10 games played in 2010, 13 in 2011, 15 in 2012). He's certainly lost a step and I think Green becomes the guy to stretch the field. San Diego might run a lot of two TE sets this year with the receivers behind Allen being less than impressive. The prediction for Green's coronation might be a year too early, but his upside is ridiculous. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be one of the best value picks in 2014.
Bottom Line
San Diego made strides last year under McCoy, particularly towards the end of the year, and I think they bring that momentum into this year. Someone from the backfield will have a good game each week, but good luck figuring out who. Allen is safe and, while Green is the up and comer, Gates should still see his share of red zone looks. The opportunity is there for someone to snag that WR2 spot, but I don't think anyone makes considerable fantasy noise from that position.
Matty O
Thomas has, surprisingly quietly, turned into one of the best WRs in the league. While he might not have the public reputation of a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, he puts up the stats that prove he's at least in the top five WRs in the game. Even with all the mouths to feed on the Broncos, you can bet that Thomas will be able to get his. He finished second last year in fantasy points, with only Josh Gordon beating him out. Despite this, he's still ranked behind Megatron and I could see people being tempted to take someone like Dez, Julio Jones, or AJ Green ahead of Thomas. I would still probably take Megatron based on his track record, but would definitely take Thomas number two. He should have another great season.
Yes, the sample size is small, but J. Thomas is in the same mold of these big, physical, athletic tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Gronk), that have taken over the league as of late. Given his build and place in this offense, I think it's fair to expect great production going forward. J. Thomas, thanks to the potent WRs on the outside, will almost always have favorable matchups particularly in the middle of the field. He's money in the red zone, finishing with 12 TDs last year, third only to Vernon Davis and Graham among tight ends. He missed two games during the middle of the year last year, but finished perfectly fine. While he has room to improve, I still don't think he touches Graham or a healthy Gronk's numbers, but should settle in as the number two or three TE for fantasy this year.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
I've been going back and forth on Ball, and it's certainly possible he could have a good year (just look at Peyton's history with running backs), but I don't trust him as a top 15 back, which is where he's being drafted currently. He finished the year strong, but had a case of fumble-itis early on. The main reason he didn't see as much playing time as he should have was his poor pass protection, which is fairly important when your franchise QB is 38 and not the most fleet of foot. Moreno might be gone, but that doesn't automatically make him a better pass blocker. If he doesn't perform in that area, the coaching staff won't hesitate to pull back his snaps. Heck, he couldn't start over Knowshon Moreno last year who was pretty much a bust prior to 2013. The opportunity is there for Ball, given the explosiveness of this offense, but there are concerns.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Emmanuel Sanders would also fit this label, but let me use this space to hype up Latimer. Latimer is likely unknown due to the college team he played for (Indiana), but this guy is the real deal. Latimer is another big, strong WR (6'2", 215 lbs.) that will probably see limited snaps to start the year, but hopefully gets more responsibility later on in the year. Wes Welker has not exactly been a picture of health lately, so an injury there could open up room for Latimer in three WR sets. Latimer finished third in the Big Ten last year for receiving yards, topping 1,000 yards and racking up nine TDs. This sleeper prediction might be a year too soon, but if something happens to either Welker, D. Thomas, or Sanders, Latimer will be a hot commodity.
Bottom Line
Picking anyone in this offense is probably a good pick. I might be down on Ball, but like I said, the opportunity is there and it's possible he turns in a top 15 season. On the defensive side of the ball, you have to be excited about all the new acquisitions they made. They had their moments last year, but finished middle of the pack fantasy wise. I think they turn that around and are a safe bet to wind up as a top 10 fantasy defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Fantasy MVP from last year, Charles showed explosiveness throughout the year. As an added bonus, especially for those PPR people, he racked up 70 receptions as he became quite the security blanket for game manager Alex Smith. He is the center piece of their entire offense, which is extremely rare to say about a RB in this day and age. Knile Davis, the RB behind him, showed flashes of what he can do, but Charles should be able to keep that hype at bay for 2014. Charles will most likely be one of the first three picks in any draft, and deservedly so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
This unit came out of nowhere last year to finish as the top fantasy defense. Unfortunately, I don't think they stay there and even drop out of the top 15. For starters, they lost their top corner in Brandon Flowers to division rival San Diego. They scored a ridiculous 11 TDs, which will be extremely hard to repeat no matter the defense. They also put up some absolute duds down the stretch last year. They put in great performances in Weeks 14 and 15 against Washington and Oakland, but Washington had pretty much given up at that point and Oakland is hardly scary on offense. Around those performances, they put up -1 (Denver), -7 (San Diego), 1 (Denver), 0 (Indianapolis), 2 (San Diego). Ouch. And don't even bring up the disaster that was their playoff game. Oakland's offense should be better this year and Denver and San Diego will do what they do. I think the drop off could be extreme for this unit. I don't say this about many units coming off a big year, but I wouldn't even draft these guys.
Sleeper: De'Anthony Thomas, RB
I'm trying to avoid putting none in categories like I did last year, so I'll go with the highest upside guy on this team. While I don't truly see any real sleepers on this team, I could see Thomas going off in one or two games this year. He'll be one of the smaller guys on the field, but he is crazy fast and can break off a big one at any time. He's listed as a RB, but will more likely be used as a pass catcher than a runner. Screens and short passes with the hope of yards after catch is what you're hoping for with Thomas. He'll definitely see time as a returner for this team, but his offensive snaps will be limited. Look for a couple Tavon Austin-like performances from last year, where Thomas maybe gets only three or four touches, but turns them into long gains and TDs.
Bottom Line
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of optimism when it comes to this Chiefs team. Charles will still put up numbers, but there's little to be excited about beyond him. Surprisingly, they chose not to aggressively draft anything to help out the offensive side of the ball. That costs them this year.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
I know I said I didn't want to put none in these categories, but who would you put here? Maurice Jones-Drew is the only one who comes close, but his recent seasons haven't been anything close to great.
Bust: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
His recent seasons haven't been great and I don't think this one will be either. Even at a lower than normal draft position for him, I still don't think he's worth it. His best days are behind him, and he should concede carries to Darren McFadden and Latavius Murphy. MJD might become Oakland's goal line back, though you have to wonder how many chances he'll get down there. He'll be a decent FLEX fill in during bye weeks, and possibly even trade bait given the reputation of his name. Still, I would wait until late until considering him.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
Here's hoping for the 2012 Jones, not the 2013 Jones. In 2012, with Jordy Nelson missing time due to injury, Jones posted 784 yards and a surprising 14 TDs for the Packers. Obviously there is a significant downgrade at QB, but I could see Jones making noise this year. The Raiders will be trailing in a lot of games and Jones may avoid the other team's top corner as they put him on either Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. I certainly don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but someone has to catch the ball for the Raiders. Limited upside here, but could develop into the clear number one receiver for the Raiders.
Bottom Line
Lots of questions here for the Raiders. Who will be the starting QB? What will the WR depth chart look like? How will carries be split, if at all? Too many questions to feel safe about drafting anyone on this team. Someone could emerge from the backfield so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. While I wish no ill will on anyone, if McFadden or MJD were to get injured before the season started, that would certainly boost the other one's stock.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
After an atrocious 2012, Rivers bounced under new coach Mike McCoy in 2013 to finish 6th in fantasy points last year. Now in his second season with McCoy, I expect Rivers to maintain that level of success, if not eclipse that. He has great skill players around him and, as long as he takes care of the ball, should return to top 10 status this year at QB. He'll still make some head scratching decisions at times, but look for a more consistent Rivers in 2014.
Allen is one reason why Rivers will maintain his high ranking. Allen eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs as a rookie last year, despite doing next to nothing the first three games of the season (in fact, he wound up with one reception for negative four yards in Week 3 in Tennessee). He rebounded in a big way to become Rivers' favorite target down the stretch, and a big reason why the Chargers rallied to make the playoffs last year. Similar to J. Thomas of the Broncos, the sample size is indeed small, but given the system and the way Allen plays, he should be okay. Unlike Rivers' former favorite WR, Vincent Jackson, Allen is more of a possession, yards after catch guy rather than the downfield big play WR. He racks up plenty of targets and has even more value in PPR leagues. Draft him with confidence.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
16 games played by Mathews. That might have been the most surprising stat in the NFL last year. After being hyped coming out of Fresno State in the draft, Mathews has failed to live up to his potential due to his constant injury concerns. 12, 14, and 12 were his games played numbers before last year. To his credit, when he's healthy, he truly is a good RB. He proved it last year as he finished with 1,255 yards and seven total TDs, despite sharing time with Danny Woodhead. I just don't trust him not getting injured again. The timeshare with Woodhead is also a concern as Woodhead actually finished with more total TDs (eight), then Mathews last year. PPR league people might even take Woodhead above Mathews. If you do feel the need to draft him, it is an absolute must that you also draft Woodhead, and possibly even Donald Brown.
Sleeper: Ladarius Green, TE
Aka, the second coming of Antonio Gates. Green is 6'6", 240 lbs., and is faster and more athletic than Gates at this point in their careers. Gates is still there and will probably start the year listed as the "first" tight end. Prior to last year, however, Gates was showing signs of wearing down (10 games played in 2010, 13 in 2011, 15 in 2012). He's certainly lost a step and I think Green becomes the guy to stretch the field. San Diego might run a lot of two TE sets this year with the receivers behind Allen being less than impressive. The prediction for Green's coronation might be a year too early, but his upside is ridiculous. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be one of the best value picks in 2014.
Bottom Line
San Diego made strides last year under McCoy, particularly towards the end of the year, and I think they bring that momentum into this year. Someone from the backfield will have a good game each week, but good luck figuring out who. Allen is safe and, while Green is the up and comer, Gates should still see his share of red zone looks. The opportunity is there for someone to snag that WR2 spot, but I don't think anyone makes considerable fantasy noise from that position.
Matty O
Sunday, August 3, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC West
St. Louis Rams
Studs: Zac Stacy, RB
Stacy came out of nowhere last year, as he finally got his shot once running backs Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead, and Benny Cunningham all faltered. He became the Rams' workhorse and became one of the rare players who didn't have to worry about a second back cutting into his carries. He finished 14th in rushing yards last year, despite starting only 12 games. He managed to score seven rushing TDs, all while playing in the toughest division in the NFL on a team with a passing offense that did very little. Given his body build and youth, there shouldn't be any concern about overworking him, at least at this point in his career. With a full training camp as the starter, he should be even better this year, despite being in a division with San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona.
Bust: Stacy
Stacy is mainly here because he was the only one to do consistently well last year for this team. There's also the fact that Stacy will likely cost you a second or third round pick this year, compared to picking him up off waivers last year. Prior to Stacy emerging, the Rams were willing to use a full on rotation of running backs, so it will be interesting to see if they go that route if Stacy struggles. Tre Mason, the Rams' third round pick this year, is also getting a lot of hype as a guy who could cut into Stacy's carries. Mason was the workhorse on the Auburn team that lost in the National Championship game. I think it will take a string of bad games from Stacy for him to lose the job, but if he does, all bets are off.
Sleeper: Sam Bradford, QB
Bradford probably won't be drafted in most leagues, but if you're doing a QB week by week rotation, or your first round pick goes down with injury, Bradford is the guy to watch. Heck, he might even be a solid starter for some fantasy teams this year week in and week out. Certainly injury is always a concern with him, but when he plays, he's actually pretty good. Before going down last year, he passed for 1687 yards, 14 TDs, and only four interceptions in seven games. The Rams bolstered the offensive line by drafting Greg Robinson number two overall. They also added Mason, and already have Stacy, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and Kenny Britt. The skill players are good, so now it's up to Bradford to get it done.
Bottom Line
The Rams should be better on both sides of the ball this year. There's a lot of potential here, but not a lot of sure things so don't expect the world from the skill players on this team. The defense/special teams unit is one that could really emerge. Their defense, particularly their front seven, is one of the best in the NFL, and Austin is a dangerous returner. The defense should finish in the top 10 for fantasy, possibly even top 5.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense/Special Teams
Lynch, like Stacy, is one of those rare backs that is the unquestioned starter for his team. Similar to the Rams, the Seahawks are big fans of running the football. Lynch is a beast of a man, known for breaking tackles and busting big runs in the process. Also, given his size, his 36 receptions are a bit of a surprise and a nice addition for PPR leagues. He's a touchdown machine and has an offensive line in front of him that is very physical. With Percy Harvin being fully healthy, it will be interesting to see if they try to throw the ball around more this year, or possibly even give Harvin carries out of the backfield (they did in Minnesota when Adrian Peterson was back there). Still, he should continue to see a large amount of carries this year.
What more can be said about this defense? Russell Wilson and Lynch did what they needed to do, but the defense is what took them to and won them the Super Bowl last year. Harvin showed what he can bring to the return game, and they'll have him available right from the start this year. Had it not been for the surprising number of TDs the Chiefs defense scored last year, the Seahawks unit would have finished first in fantasy points last year. They're decent on the road, but absolutely dominant at home with that crowd behind them. It's hard for fantasy defenses to repeat as top units, but expect this one to be top 3.
Bust: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin always gets plenty of hype every year, and this year is no different. His explosiveness is certainly there, but injuries have plagued him his whole career. The 'Hawks will say that Harvin will be used more and they will try to get the ball in his hands, but I still think they pound the football. I'm also not the biggest believer in Wilson when it comes to making explosive plays. Wilson's calling card is not making the big mistake, rather than trying to make the big play. Even if Harvin doesn't get injured, I just don't think he sees enough looks to justify drafting him as a WR2/FLEX. He might be nice trade bait given his name, and will be a nice asset if your league awards points for return yards. Other than that though, he's a big risk/reward pick.
Sleeper: Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson, the Seahawks' second round pick in this year's draft, is a small, pure speed receiver. I still bet on Harvin getting injured this year, leaving Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as the only two WRs ahead of Robinson. Robinson will be someone you can snag off of waivers and I think he makes some noise if/when Harvin goes down.
Bottom Line
Despite being the Super Bowl champs, there's not that much fantasy gold to be found here. Wilson will provide you with a solid, but unextraordinary option at QB. Harvin has the potential to go off, but is still a big risk/reward. The defense will give you a great option at defense and Lynch should continue to do what he does.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Michael Floyd, WR
If these two had a decent QB, we might be talking about them as the best WR duo in the league, ahead of Atlanta and Chicago. As it stands, however, Carson Palmer is still the guy throwing them the ball. Despite this, they both managed to put up decent numbers last year. Obviously Fitz is the more well known of the two, but Floyd actually finished with more yards than Fitz last year, but half as many TDs. These two will be very similar to what Washington has formed with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Floyd and Jackson are two guys who can kill you deep at any time. Garcon and Fitz can do the same, but are more reliable pass catchers in the middle of the field and have the ability to run more routes.
Based on name alone, Fitz will get drafted ahead of Floyd, but I actually think Floyd outperforms Fitz in fantasy. I think Floyd racks up a few more TDs and once again, out gains Fitz in receiving yards. Fitz is still the guy for reception numbers, so his value gets a bump in PPR leagues, but Floyd is a dangerous up and coming receiver. The only thing I would be wary about with these two is one going off one week, then the other, then the other, depending on who the top corner is covering. These two compliment each other very well, however, as Fitz could get eight catches for 90 yards with Floyd only needing three catches for 105.
Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
See above. If their draft positions were switched, I think both would be drafted correctly.
Sleeper: Andre Ellington, RB
This is mainly for PPR, as I don't think Ellington outperforms his draft position in standard, but this guy is the real deal. The problem is that it seems like everyone in the world can see that except the Cardinals' coaching staff. Despite clearly being the more explosive player, the coaching staff continued to give Rashard Mendenhall a large amount of snaps. Mendenhall is gone, but Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are still hanging around. The good news for PPR people, however, is the staff does realize that he is a good pass catcher and dangerous in open space. He's not going to rack up big TD numbers, as I doubt he sees any looks inside the five yard line, but he's far and away the best RB on this roster. If the staff unleashes him, I could see him easily being a top 10 back in PPR.
Bottom Line
There's great skill on the offensive side of the ball, but once again, Palmer is the distributor to all these players. That could be problematic. The two receivers are probably the safest, with Ellington needing the help of the coaching staff to outperform his draft position. Like the other teams in this division, the Cards' defense/ST should be great, and give you a top 10 unit at that position.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Vernon Davis, TE, Michael Crabtree, WR, Colin Kaepernick, QB
Davis struggled in 2012, but bounced back in a big way last year, particularly when Crabtree was out of the lineup. His yards and receptions aren't the most impressive things in the world, but his TD total (13 last year) helps out his total fantasy points. He's being drafted behind Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Gronk, but I think he finishes ahead of one of these guys. You should be able to fill out your WRs and RBs before drafting him, so the value is there for the number two tight end from last year.
Crabtree has come to develop great chemistry with Kaepernick since being drafted in 2009. Injury killed his numbers last year, but in 2012, he played all 16 games and finished with 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and nine TDs. His performance in the playoffs, particularly against Green Bay (8 catches, 125 yards) was encouraging coming into this year. Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Stevie Johnson should make this passing offense even more dangerous, and possibly draw even more coverage away from Crabtree. Just don't start him when Richard Sherman is playing.
Kap had a terrible start to last year, posting single digit fantasy games in three of his first five games. He played well down the stretch though, throwing only three interceptions after their bye week. His legs always gives him a chance to put up great fantasy numbers, though I still think his passing skills are mediocre, leading to the single digit duds that he posts from time to time. When the 49er offense is clicking and the read option is in full swing, however, Kap becomes one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. I think with the weapons around him, he has a better year than 2013 and finishes in the top 6 for QBs.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
One of these years, Gore will break down. He's been extremely resistant to doing so however. Gore, once again, eclipsed 1000 yards last year, and added nine TDs for good measure. Most RBs experience a rather sharp decline after the age of 30 and I'll say that this is the season it hits Gore. The good news for Gore is the Jim Harbaugh is committed to running the ball and the Niners offensive line is one of the best in the league. With the wealth of RB talent behind him though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Niners executed some kind of pitch count, where Gore gets his carries cut back. I've thought his decline was going to come for a couple seasons now, so it's entirely possible I'm wrong on this one, but the drop off has to happen at some point.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
Despite being billed as the number two WR behind Boldin and Crabtree, I think he'll put up solid numbers. Keep in mind Johnson was the number one WR in Buffalo and put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-2012. The talent that he'll be playing with in San Fran is also extremely better than what he ever had in Buffalo. Crabtree will almost always see the other team's top corner, giving Johnson an opportunity to get favorable matchups. He'll act more like a slot receiver than the big play role he had in Buffalo, but I think, particularly in PPR, Johnson puts up respectable numbers given the low draft pick it will cost you.
Bottom Line
The Niners have the most fantasy relevant skill players in this division. I actually think, at least from a fantasy perspective, that the Niners have the weakest defense in the division and could finish outside the top 10 with Bowman probably not available until the middle of the season and Aldon Smith's uncertain status. They'll need all the offensive firepower they can get when they see their other division rivals.
Matty O
Studs: Zac Stacy, RB
Stacy came out of nowhere last year, as he finally got his shot once running backs Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead, and Benny Cunningham all faltered. He became the Rams' workhorse and became one of the rare players who didn't have to worry about a second back cutting into his carries. He finished 14th in rushing yards last year, despite starting only 12 games. He managed to score seven rushing TDs, all while playing in the toughest division in the NFL on a team with a passing offense that did very little. Given his body build and youth, there shouldn't be any concern about overworking him, at least at this point in his career. With a full training camp as the starter, he should be even better this year, despite being in a division with San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona.
Bust: Stacy
Stacy is mainly here because he was the only one to do consistently well last year for this team. There's also the fact that Stacy will likely cost you a second or third round pick this year, compared to picking him up off waivers last year. Prior to Stacy emerging, the Rams were willing to use a full on rotation of running backs, so it will be interesting to see if they go that route if Stacy struggles. Tre Mason, the Rams' third round pick this year, is also getting a lot of hype as a guy who could cut into Stacy's carries. Mason was the workhorse on the Auburn team that lost in the National Championship game. I think it will take a string of bad games from Stacy for him to lose the job, but if he does, all bets are off.
Sleeper: Sam Bradford, QB
Bradford probably won't be drafted in most leagues, but if you're doing a QB week by week rotation, or your first round pick goes down with injury, Bradford is the guy to watch. Heck, he might even be a solid starter for some fantasy teams this year week in and week out. Certainly injury is always a concern with him, but when he plays, he's actually pretty good. Before going down last year, he passed for 1687 yards, 14 TDs, and only four interceptions in seven games. The Rams bolstered the offensive line by drafting Greg Robinson number two overall. They also added Mason, and already have Stacy, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and Kenny Britt. The skill players are good, so now it's up to Bradford to get it done.
Bottom Line
The Rams should be better on both sides of the ball this year. There's a lot of potential here, but not a lot of sure things so don't expect the world from the skill players on this team. The defense/special teams unit is one that could really emerge. Their defense, particularly their front seven, is one of the best in the NFL, and Austin is a dangerous returner. The defense should finish in the top 10 for fantasy, possibly even top 5.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense/Special Teams
Lynch, like Stacy, is one of those rare backs that is the unquestioned starter for his team. Similar to the Rams, the Seahawks are big fans of running the football. Lynch is a beast of a man, known for breaking tackles and busting big runs in the process. Also, given his size, his 36 receptions are a bit of a surprise and a nice addition for PPR leagues. He's a touchdown machine and has an offensive line in front of him that is very physical. With Percy Harvin being fully healthy, it will be interesting to see if they try to throw the ball around more this year, or possibly even give Harvin carries out of the backfield (they did in Minnesota when Adrian Peterson was back there). Still, he should continue to see a large amount of carries this year.
What more can be said about this defense? Russell Wilson and Lynch did what they needed to do, but the defense is what took them to and won them the Super Bowl last year. Harvin showed what he can bring to the return game, and they'll have him available right from the start this year. Had it not been for the surprising number of TDs the Chiefs defense scored last year, the Seahawks unit would have finished first in fantasy points last year. They're decent on the road, but absolutely dominant at home with that crowd behind them. It's hard for fantasy defenses to repeat as top units, but expect this one to be top 3.
Bust: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin always gets plenty of hype every year, and this year is no different. His explosiveness is certainly there, but injuries have plagued him his whole career. The 'Hawks will say that Harvin will be used more and they will try to get the ball in his hands, but I still think they pound the football. I'm also not the biggest believer in Wilson when it comes to making explosive plays. Wilson's calling card is not making the big mistake, rather than trying to make the big play. Even if Harvin doesn't get injured, I just don't think he sees enough looks to justify drafting him as a WR2/FLEX. He might be nice trade bait given his name, and will be a nice asset if your league awards points for return yards. Other than that though, he's a big risk/reward pick.
Sleeper: Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson, the Seahawks' second round pick in this year's draft, is a small, pure speed receiver. I still bet on Harvin getting injured this year, leaving Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as the only two WRs ahead of Robinson. Robinson will be someone you can snag off of waivers and I think he makes some noise if/when Harvin goes down.
Bottom Line
Despite being the Super Bowl champs, there's not that much fantasy gold to be found here. Wilson will provide you with a solid, but unextraordinary option at QB. Harvin has the potential to go off, but is still a big risk/reward. The defense will give you a great option at defense and Lynch should continue to do what he does.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Michael Floyd, WR
If these two had a decent QB, we might be talking about them as the best WR duo in the league, ahead of Atlanta and Chicago. As it stands, however, Carson Palmer is still the guy throwing them the ball. Despite this, they both managed to put up decent numbers last year. Obviously Fitz is the more well known of the two, but Floyd actually finished with more yards than Fitz last year, but half as many TDs. These two will be very similar to what Washington has formed with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Floyd and Jackson are two guys who can kill you deep at any time. Garcon and Fitz can do the same, but are more reliable pass catchers in the middle of the field and have the ability to run more routes.
Based on name alone, Fitz will get drafted ahead of Floyd, but I actually think Floyd outperforms Fitz in fantasy. I think Floyd racks up a few more TDs and once again, out gains Fitz in receiving yards. Fitz is still the guy for reception numbers, so his value gets a bump in PPR leagues, but Floyd is a dangerous up and coming receiver. The only thing I would be wary about with these two is one going off one week, then the other, then the other, depending on who the top corner is covering. These two compliment each other very well, however, as Fitz could get eight catches for 90 yards with Floyd only needing three catches for 105.
Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
See above. If their draft positions were switched, I think both would be drafted correctly.
Sleeper: Andre Ellington, RB
This is mainly for PPR, as I don't think Ellington outperforms his draft position in standard, but this guy is the real deal. The problem is that it seems like everyone in the world can see that except the Cardinals' coaching staff. Despite clearly being the more explosive player, the coaching staff continued to give Rashard Mendenhall a large amount of snaps. Mendenhall is gone, but Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are still hanging around. The good news for PPR people, however, is the staff does realize that he is a good pass catcher and dangerous in open space. He's not going to rack up big TD numbers, as I doubt he sees any looks inside the five yard line, but he's far and away the best RB on this roster. If the staff unleashes him, I could see him easily being a top 10 back in PPR.
Bottom Line
There's great skill on the offensive side of the ball, but once again, Palmer is the distributor to all these players. That could be problematic. The two receivers are probably the safest, with Ellington needing the help of the coaching staff to outperform his draft position. Like the other teams in this division, the Cards' defense/ST should be great, and give you a top 10 unit at that position.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Vernon Davis, TE, Michael Crabtree, WR, Colin Kaepernick, QB
Davis struggled in 2012, but bounced back in a big way last year, particularly when Crabtree was out of the lineup. His yards and receptions aren't the most impressive things in the world, but his TD total (13 last year) helps out his total fantasy points. He's being drafted behind Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Gronk, but I think he finishes ahead of one of these guys. You should be able to fill out your WRs and RBs before drafting him, so the value is there for the number two tight end from last year.
Crabtree has come to develop great chemistry with Kaepernick since being drafted in 2009. Injury killed his numbers last year, but in 2012, he played all 16 games and finished with 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and nine TDs. His performance in the playoffs, particularly against Green Bay (8 catches, 125 yards) was encouraging coming into this year. Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Stevie Johnson should make this passing offense even more dangerous, and possibly draw even more coverage away from Crabtree. Just don't start him when Richard Sherman is playing.
Kap had a terrible start to last year, posting single digit fantasy games in three of his first five games. He played well down the stretch though, throwing only three interceptions after their bye week. His legs always gives him a chance to put up great fantasy numbers, though I still think his passing skills are mediocre, leading to the single digit duds that he posts from time to time. When the 49er offense is clicking and the read option is in full swing, however, Kap becomes one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. I think with the weapons around him, he has a better year than 2013 and finishes in the top 6 for QBs.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
One of these years, Gore will break down. He's been extremely resistant to doing so however. Gore, once again, eclipsed 1000 yards last year, and added nine TDs for good measure. Most RBs experience a rather sharp decline after the age of 30 and I'll say that this is the season it hits Gore. The good news for Gore is the Jim Harbaugh is committed to running the ball and the Niners offensive line is one of the best in the league. With the wealth of RB talent behind him though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Niners executed some kind of pitch count, where Gore gets his carries cut back. I've thought his decline was going to come for a couple seasons now, so it's entirely possible I'm wrong on this one, but the drop off has to happen at some point.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
Despite being billed as the number two WR behind Boldin and Crabtree, I think he'll put up solid numbers. Keep in mind Johnson was the number one WR in Buffalo and put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-2012. The talent that he'll be playing with in San Fran is also extremely better than what he ever had in Buffalo. Crabtree will almost always see the other team's top corner, giving Johnson an opportunity to get favorable matchups. He'll act more like a slot receiver than the big play role he had in Buffalo, but I think, particularly in PPR, Johnson puts up respectable numbers given the low draft pick it will cost you.
Bottom Line
The Niners have the most fantasy relevant skill players in this division. I actually think, at least from a fantasy perspective, that the Niners have the weakest defense in the division and could finish outside the top 10 with Bowman probably not available until the middle of the season and Aldon Smith's uncertain status. They'll need all the offensive firepower they can get when they see their other division rivals.
Matty O
Friday, August 1, 2014
Fantasy Draft Strategy
Ah, the start of a new fantasy football season. A fresh start for those who finished last in 2013, and the hope of a repeat title for the Champions of last year. A successful draft is the best way to turn those hopes into reality. Sure, you can make a big time waiver wire pickup this year, and you can also fumble away wins by starting and sitting the wrong people. For the most part, however, the draft is critical to determining the playoff teams and the ones that are done by Week 8. Here now are some tips that I've used in the past in order to have the most successful draft possible.
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? Point per reception (PPR)? Can you draft individual defensive players? Depending on what your league type is, will influence how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. For instance, in PPR, Darren Sproles becomes a hot commodity. When he was on the Saints, it wasn't out of the question to take him in the first three rounds. His best year was in 2011, when he caught 86 passes and had 1,313 total yards. In a standard league, where 10 rushing or receiving yards is worth one point, that would mean that other backs would have to gain 860 more total yards just to match Sproles' receptions. Conversely, you think about a guy like Alfred Morris who hardly ever catches the ball (20 receptions in 32 NFL games), but puts up good rushing and TD totals. Remember, that no matter what the league, it's all about drafting for value. Morris at number 12 overall is good value in a standard league, but not so good when it comes to PPR.
You're Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
I brought this up last year, and I'll say it again, because it is tempting to not follow this principle. I've always believed that your picks in the 6th and 7th round are just as important as your pick in the first. You can, and should, expect your first round pick to be the star of your team, but if you reach for a player too early, then you might have slim pickings in the later rounds, whereas your opponents can find solid production. I'll get deeper into this in the following sections, but taking a player, no matter how good he is, at a deep position, is a risk. If all your draft picks pan out and you pick every good sleeper there is out there, then you might be able to get away with it. The chances of that happening though, are slim.
The Bronco Rule
Normally, if I have a team's QB, I'm not drafting the team's RB. I sometimes even shy away from the QB-WR same team combo. This rule goes out the window when it comes to this year's, and last year's Broncos. If you rolled out a lineup of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker, Montee Ball, Julius Thomas, Matt Prater, and the Broncos Defense (have to choose a non-Bronco for RB2), I bet you beat most teams, most weeks. Manning does such a great job putting guys in position to be successful, that all of the Bronco skill players should see some success this year. Even if Welker has a down game, it is likely that everyone else went off and your opponent likely had someone not do so hot as well. The obvious drawback of this is there will be one week (Denver's bye) where you essentially forfeit that matchup, but all other weeks, you'll have the full force of the Bronco offense coming at your opponent.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starting running back in case he gets injured. It takes up a roster spot and you might go through the whole year without using him, but if you don't have that handcuff, your season could be over. Let's take the always entertaining health risk that is Reggie Bush as an example. Reggie Bush getting injured during the season is probably the safest bet in football. When he's out there, he's one of the most dangerous backs in the league, but sooner or later he will get injured. If you don't have his backup and aren't first in waiver priority, then chances are you just wasted one of your top picks. You might be lucky having found a diamond in the rough off the waiver wire, but having Bush's backup is the only way to guarantee that you will have a starting RB to fill that slot if/when Bush goes down.
Now, keep in mind this shouldn't apply to everyone. If you have an Alfred Morris, who never gets hurt, then it's probably better to keep that roster spot open for someone with high potential. Anyone who has played fantasy before knows how precious those roster spots are, especially once bye weeks roll around. Also, it's worth questioning if the running game is good because of the RB, or is the RB good because of the running scheme and personnel up front. Ben Tate was probably the most sought after handcuff because he was on the Texans. If Arian Foster went down, Tate would and did still have success because that offensive line was so good and they were committed to running the ball. Contrast that to Zac Stacy in St. Louis where the offense was putrid running the ball until Stacy took over full time. It's not a necessity, but handcuffs sure will make you breathe easier when you see your starting RB hit with the Questionable or Doubtful tag.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules match up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. Even if it works in my favor, I feel like the league gets ruined a bit if a draft takes place in the middle of August, only to have someone's first round RB get injured in a meaningless preseason game. Having your draft close to the start of the season, minimizes those chances and will likely give you a better idea of any lingering suspensions and/or holdouts. We still don't know what will happen with Josh Gordon. Seeing as how he's one of the top receivers in the league, the length of his suspension could mean the difference between taking him early or not taking him at all. Just something for all the commissioners out there to keep in mind.
Position by Position Strategy
Quarterback
Similar to last year, QB is crazy deep, probably even more so than last year. Consider the fact that, in a standard 12 team league, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, and Andy Dalton likely won't be a starter for a team, despite finishing in the Top 10 for QBs last year. I suggested this last year and I think it applies again, but you could wait a while on QB, draft two of them late, and just play the matchups. You could easily wind up with a Phillip Rivers/Ben Roethlisberger, or a Jay Cutler/Andy Dalton combo. Depending on the matchup, any one of those four has the ability to go off for a big game. Heck, I even think Carson Palmer will have a good year and will be worthy of a start once in a while. Save for a disastrous game in Seattle, he did really well down the stretch. Eli Manning should bounce back, and it's not hard to see either one of the rookies or second year QBs emerging.
At the top of the QB mountain sits three players and three players only; Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. These are the only three that I would even consider taking early. For those that think Manning is a sure fire way to make the title game, consider where he was drafted last year compared to this. You could get Manning late second, maybe even early third last year. This year, he is likely to cost you a first round or early second round pick. I still think he'll do well, don't get me wrong, but last year you could have gotten Jamaal Charles and Manning. This year, you'll probably wind up with Manning and someone like Le'Veon Bell. Wait on QB unless Manning, Brees, or Rodgers falls.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10: Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton
Running Back
What a terrible year for first round running backs. Injuries (Arian Foster, Doug Martin) and down years (Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson) sent many fantasy teams into a downward spiral they couldn't recover from. As I said before, you expect your first round pick to carry the load, so if they underperform, unless you have the greatest bench in history, you'll probably be on the outside looking in come playoff time. The good news is that I think last year was simply an outlier for how many first round backs did poorly. The bad news is, I think the amount of reliable backs is decreasing league wide. The NFL is becoming a more pass oriented league. Owners and GMs are trying to preserve their backs long term, so the running back by committee (RBBC) is becoming more and more popular.
The only places that don't have a RBBC approach are Dallas, Washington, Philly, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, and Kansas City. Everywhere else, teams are either using the RBBC or are in the midst of heading that direction. It's a good strategy for NFL teams, but a pain in the butt for fantasy football players. I tried to juggle the three headed monster that was the New England Patriots backfield last year with little to no success. Even if you draft both backs in a committee, good luck starting the right one that goes off that week.
This year, I really think there are only five backs in the entire league that can be trusted and have minimal question marks surrounding them. Those are Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and Eddie Lacy. If you have a chance to take any of them, do it. I don't care who else is available to take. A single runner entrusted to carry the mail for an entire team is such a rare commodity that you would be foolish to pass them up. You should have a distinct advantage at the RB1 position week in and week out.
Player(s) Outside Top 20 That Will Finish Top 20: Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Khiry Robinson
Wide Receiver
Unlike the running backs, there seems to be an abundance of great WRs in the game today. More and more teams are seeing the value of lining up two great receivers together so the defense can't just focus on one guy. Chicago, Atlanta, Arizona, Denver, and Washington are probably the front runners for best WR duo in the league. With all this talent, similar to QB, it is wise to wait a bit on WRs, though not as long as on QB. Just like at the other positions, there are a few that are a cut above the rest. Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones are the six I would include in that elite category (Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, and Antonio Brown are close behind). In a 12 team PPR league, some of these guys even become first rounders. I wouldn't hesitate to pick any of them.
If you don't wind up with one of them, you can take comfort in the fact that there's plenty of talent to be had later in the draft. While there may be less sure things later on, there are a whole bunch of guys that could have breakout years. Cordarrelle Patterson came on late last year and will be better with a year under his belt, Emmanuel Sanders is an upgrade over Eric Decker with Denver's explosive offense, Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin have to help make up for the production lost when Desean Jackson left, Tavon Austin lacked consistency but was always dangerous last year, Markus Wheaton could fill Sanders' role in Pittsburgh, someone has to catch for Tom Brady other than Rob Gronkowski, and there's also a handful of promising rookies.
One thing to consider as well is if your league has a FLEX position. Some leagues have this spot in lieu of a third WR spot. The FLEX can usually be filled with a WR or RB, though some leagues now include a TE in that mix. If your league has three WR slots, then value them more. RBs, in general, are much safer with a lower ceiling than WRs. This makes them great candidates for the FLEX spot as your big games should come from your top starters anyways. If you have three WRs, however, there will be less of them available in the later rounds so it's better to get one sooner rather than later.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 That Will Finish Top 30: Riley Cooper, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders
Tight End
Lately, this position has really been Jimmy Graham, Gronk (when healthy), and everyone else. That doesn't change this year. If you can't get either one of them, or don't want either of them, then try to be the last one in your league to snag a TE. Last year, the difference between Graham (#1) and Vernon Davis (#2) was 56 points. The difference between Davis and Martellus Bennett (#10), however, was 58 points. Averaged out over 16 games, that is only an additional 3.6 points per game. Compare that to RB where the 2 to 10 difference would net you 5.6 points per game. Graham and a healthy Gronk will outscore the other tight ends badly, that's not even in question, but the difference between the rest of them won't be that great. Just remember, if you ain't first, you better be last.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10: Ladarius Green, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Defense
The best thing to keep in mind with defenses is that fantasy defense is wildly unpredictable. In most leagues, points allowed isn't what will get you big fantasy defensive numbers. Turnovers and sacks are the recipe for success. The problem is that predicting those things is pretty difficult. Sacks might be a bit easier to predict but I doubt anyone can give a concrete number for how many defensive TDs any given defense will score this year and back it up with facts. The Chiefs finished first in defense last year, thanks in large part to 11 total defense/special teams TDs. This is the same Chiefs defense that was projected to go undrafted and be one of the worst defenses to use. Teams like the Seahawks and 49ers might seem like sure things, but the variance from year to year suggests it is better to simply wait and build up your other positions first.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10: Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kickers
Wait until the last round and pick one on a good team. Having one that plays home games indoors (Colts, Lions, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Rams, Cardinals, Texans) can also be a plus.
Division by Division series coming in the following weeks.
Matty O
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? Point per reception (PPR)? Can you draft individual defensive players? Depending on what your league type is, will influence how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. For instance, in PPR, Darren Sproles becomes a hot commodity. When he was on the Saints, it wasn't out of the question to take him in the first three rounds. His best year was in 2011, when he caught 86 passes and had 1,313 total yards. In a standard league, where 10 rushing or receiving yards is worth one point, that would mean that other backs would have to gain 860 more total yards just to match Sproles' receptions. Conversely, you think about a guy like Alfred Morris who hardly ever catches the ball (20 receptions in 32 NFL games), but puts up good rushing and TD totals. Remember, that no matter what the league, it's all about drafting for value. Morris at number 12 overall is good value in a standard league, but not so good when it comes to PPR.
You're Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
I brought this up last year, and I'll say it again, because it is tempting to not follow this principle. I've always believed that your picks in the 6th and 7th round are just as important as your pick in the first. You can, and should, expect your first round pick to be the star of your team, but if you reach for a player too early, then you might have slim pickings in the later rounds, whereas your opponents can find solid production. I'll get deeper into this in the following sections, but taking a player, no matter how good he is, at a deep position, is a risk. If all your draft picks pan out and you pick every good sleeper there is out there, then you might be able to get away with it. The chances of that happening though, are slim.
The Bronco Rule
Normally, if I have a team's QB, I'm not drafting the team's RB. I sometimes even shy away from the QB-WR same team combo. This rule goes out the window when it comes to this year's, and last year's Broncos. If you rolled out a lineup of Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker, Montee Ball, Julius Thomas, Matt Prater, and the Broncos Defense (have to choose a non-Bronco for RB2), I bet you beat most teams, most weeks. Manning does such a great job putting guys in position to be successful, that all of the Bronco skill players should see some success this year. Even if Welker has a down game, it is likely that everyone else went off and your opponent likely had someone not do so hot as well. The obvious drawback of this is there will be one week (Denver's bye) where you essentially forfeit that matchup, but all other weeks, you'll have the full force of the Bronco offense coming at your opponent.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starting running back in case he gets injured. It takes up a roster spot and you might go through the whole year without using him, but if you don't have that handcuff, your season could be over. Let's take the always entertaining health risk that is Reggie Bush as an example. Reggie Bush getting injured during the season is probably the safest bet in football. When he's out there, he's one of the most dangerous backs in the league, but sooner or later he will get injured. If you don't have his backup and aren't first in waiver priority, then chances are you just wasted one of your top picks. You might be lucky having found a diamond in the rough off the waiver wire, but having Bush's backup is the only way to guarantee that you will have a starting RB to fill that slot if/when Bush goes down.
Now, keep in mind this shouldn't apply to everyone. If you have an Alfred Morris, who never gets hurt, then it's probably better to keep that roster spot open for someone with high potential. Anyone who has played fantasy before knows how precious those roster spots are, especially once bye weeks roll around. Also, it's worth questioning if the running game is good because of the RB, or is the RB good because of the running scheme and personnel up front. Ben Tate was probably the most sought after handcuff because he was on the Texans. If Arian Foster went down, Tate would and did still have success because that offensive line was so good and they were committed to running the ball. Contrast that to Zac Stacy in St. Louis where the offense was putrid running the ball until Stacy took over full time. It's not a necessity, but handcuffs sure will make you breathe easier when you see your starting RB hit with the Questionable or Doubtful tag.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules match up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. Even if it works in my favor, I feel like the league gets ruined a bit if a draft takes place in the middle of August, only to have someone's first round RB get injured in a meaningless preseason game. Having your draft close to the start of the season, minimizes those chances and will likely give you a better idea of any lingering suspensions and/or holdouts. We still don't know what will happen with Josh Gordon. Seeing as how he's one of the top receivers in the league, the length of his suspension could mean the difference between taking him early or not taking him at all. Just something for all the commissioners out there to keep in mind.
Position by Position Strategy
Quarterback
Similar to last year, QB is crazy deep, probably even more so than last year. Consider the fact that, in a standard 12 team league, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, and Andy Dalton likely won't be a starter for a team, despite finishing in the Top 10 for QBs last year. I suggested this last year and I think it applies again, but you could wait a while on QB, draft two of them late, and just play the matchups. You could easily wind up with a Phillip Rivers/Ben Roethlisberger, or a Jay Cutler/Andy Dalton combo. Depending on the matchup, any one of those four has the ability to go off for a big game. Heck, I even think Carson Palmer will have a good year and will be worthy of a start once in a while. Save for a disastrous game in Seattle, he did really well down the stretch. Eli Manning should bounce back, and it's not hard to see either one of the rookies or second year QBs emerging.
At the top of the QB mountain sits three players and three players only; Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. These are the only three that I would even consider taking early. For those that think Manning is a sure fire way to make the title game, consider where he was drafted last year compared to this. You could get Manning late second, maybe even early third last year. This year, he is likely to cost you a first round or early second round pick. I still think he'll do well, don't get me wrong, but last year you could have gotten Jamaal Charles and Manning. This year, you'll probably wind up with Manning and someone like Le'Veon Bell. Wait on QB unless Manning, Brees, or Rodgers falls.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10: Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton
Running Back
What a terrible year for first round running backs. Injuries (Arian Foster, Doug Martin) and down years (Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson) sent many fantasy teams into a downward spiral they couldn't recover from. As I said before, you expect your first round pick to carry the load, so if they underperform, unless you have the greatest bench in history, you'll probably be on the outside looking in come playoff time. The good news is that I think last year was simply an outlier for how many first round backs did poorly. The bad news is, I think the amount of reliable backs is decreasing league wide. The NFL is becoming a more pass oriented league. Owners and GMs are trying to preserve their backs long term, so the running back by committee (RBBC) is becoming more and more popular.
The only places that don't have a RBBC approach are Dallas, Washington, Philly, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, and Kansas City. Everywhere else, teams are either using the RBBC or are in the midst of heading that direction. It's a good strategy for NFL teams, but a pain in the butt for fantasy football players. I tried to juggle the three headed monster that was the New England Patriots backfield last year with little to no success. Even if you draft both backs in a committee, good luck starting the right one that goes off that week.
This year, I really think there are only five backs in the entire league that can be trusted and have minimal question marks surrounding them. Those are Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and Eddie Lacy. If you have a chance to take any of them, do it. I don't care who else is available to take. A single runner entrusted to carry the mail for an entire team is such a rare commodity that you would be foolish to pass them up. You should have a distinct advantage at the RB1 position week in and week out.
Player(s) Outside Top 20 That Will Finish Top 20: Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Khiry Robinson
Wide Receiver
Unlike the running backs, there seems to be an abundance of great WRs in the game today. More and more teams are seeing the value of lining up two great receivers together so the defense can't just focus on one guy. Chicago, Atlanta, Arizona, Denver, and Washington are probably the front runners for best WR duo in the league. With all this talent, similar to QB, it is wise to wait a bit on WRs, though not as long as on QB. Just like at the other positions, there are a few that are a cut above the rest. Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones are the six I would include in that elite category (Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, and Antonio Brown are close behind). In a 12 team PPR league, some of these guys even become first rounders. I wouldn't hesitate to pick any of them.
If you don't wind up with one of them, you can take comfort in the fact that there's plenty of talent to be had later in the draft. While there may be less sure things later on, there are a whole bunch of guys that could have breakout years. Cordarrelle Patterson came on late last year and will be better with a year under his belt, Emmanuel Sanders is an upgrade over Eric Decker with Denver's explosive offense, Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin have to help make up for the production lost when Desean Jackson left, Tavon Austin lacked consistency but was always dangerous last year, Markus Wheaton could fill Sanders' role in Pittsburgh, someone has to catch for Tom Brady other than Rob Gronkowski, and there's also a handful of promising rookies.
One thing to consider as well is if your league has a FLEX position. Some leagues have this spot in lieu of a third WR spot. The FLEX can usually be filled with a WR or RB, though some leagues now include a TE in that mix. If your league has three WR slots, then value them more. RBs, in general, are much safer with a lower ceiling than WRs. This makes them great candidates for the FLEX spot as your big games should come from your top starters anyways. If you have three WRs, however, there will be less of them available in the later rounds so it's better to get one sooner rather than later.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 That Will Finish Top 30: Riley Cooper, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders
Tight End
Lately, this position has really been Jimmy Graham, Gronk (when healthy), and everyone else. That doesn't change this year. If you can't get either one of them, or don't want either of them, then try to be the last one in your league to snag a TE. Last year, the difference between Graham (#1) and Vernon Davis (#2) was 56 points. The difference between Davis and Martellus Bennett (#10), however, was 58 points. Averaged out over 16 games, that is only an additional 3.6 points per game. Compare that to RB where the 2 to 10 difference would net you 5.6 points per game. Graham and a healthy Gronk will outscore the other tight ends badly, that's not even in question, but the difference between the rest of them won't be that great. Just remember, if you ain't first, you better be last.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10: Ladarius Green, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Defense
The best thing to keep in mind with defenses is that fantasy defense is wildly unpredictable. In most leagues, points allowed isn't what will get you big fantasy defensive numbers. Turnovers and sacks are the recipe for success. The problem is that predicting those things is pretty difficult. Sacks might be a bit easier to predict but I doubt anyone can give a concrete number for how many defensive TDs any given defense will score this year and back it up with facts. The Chiefs finished first in defense last year, thanks in large part to 11 total defense/special teams TDs. This is the same Chiefs defense that was projected to go undrafted and be one of the worst defenses to use. Teams like the Seahawks and 49ers might seem like sure things, but the variance from year to year suggests it is better to simply wait and build up your other positions first.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 That Will Finish Top 10: Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kickers
Wait until the last round and pick one on a good team. Having one that plays home games indoors (Colts, Lions, Cowboys, Falcons, Saints, Rams, Cardinals, Texans) can also be a plus.
Division by Division series coming in the following weeks.
Matty O
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)