Seattle Seahawks
12-4, #1 seed, NFC West Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 36-16 vs Green Bay, won 26-20 vs Denver, lost 30-23 vs Dallas, won 13-9 at Carolina, won 19-3 vs Arizona, won 35-6 at Arizona
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - This is what they built their Super Bowl run on last year and they look to be trying to do the same this year. Their defense is healthy and ended the regular season as the number one overall defense, allowing the fewest passing yards per game, the third fewest rushing yards per game, and the least points per game. The Legion of Boom appears to be back in full force as they are shutting offenses down, giving their good, but still not great, offense more possessions.
Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot - Sometimes in the playoffs you don't have to be the best team, you just have to be the hottest team. Well, Seattle might be both. After going 3-3 in their first six games with losses to San Diego, Dallas at home, and most surprisingly, in St. Louis, people already started writing them off. They had a nice run last year, but they would come back to reality in 2014. Fast forward a few months and they are now a popular pick to win the Super Bowl with only a couple of teams deemed worthy of stopping them. They won their last six games and gave up no more than 14 points in any of those games. This included redeeming their St. Louis loss, two games each against the Cardinals and 49ers, and a drubbing of the high flying Eagles.
Russell Wilson - This guy just continues to make plays. The Seahawks certainly want to ground and pound with Marshawn Lynch a fair amount, but Wilson is counted on to make plays in crucial spots. He certainly doesn't have the gaudy numbers that an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees will put up, but he makes plays when his team desperately needs one. More often than not, his scrambling ability gets defenses spread out and chasing after him, only to watch him deliver a strike to a wide receiver who lost his man. Not only that, but rarely does Wilson make the significant mistake that costs his team a game.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Russell Wilson - While the scrambling is nice and all, he is still an average pure pocket thrower. He is extremely dangerous when he scrambles, but if you contain him, then he can be beat. The Cowboy game is the perfect example of how to slow down his playmaking ability. The defensive front seven made it a point to keep him in the pocket and limit the time he had to throw. This resulted in only two rushes for 12 yards, a 50% completion percentage, no TDs, and a 47.6 passer rating. If, for whatever reason, the Seahawks get into a shootout because of special teams or defensive errors, Wilson is not the guy that will likely match another QB score for score.
The NFC - Green Bay, Carolina, and Dallas all have more than a puncher's chance of knocking this team off. Heck, Dallas already did it up in Seattle. Green Bay got crushed the opening game of the season, but this team wasn't really clicking until after the Detroit game in Week 3 and Rodgers told Packer fans to relax. The Pack refused to throw Richard Sherman's way, though I'm sure the game plan will be much different if they meet again. The Panthers almost beat Seattle in Week 8 in a 13-9 slug fest. Carolina's defense has gotten even better since that game, and it appears as though they've found a run game. While Seattle did win two out of those three games, I doubt they want to see any of those three teams again.
Teams Are Ready - There is a reason why it is hard to repeat. Teams give you their best shot game in and game out. Defenses and offenses can be broken down in film study and tendencies can, and do, emerge. If the playoffs go chalk and all the high seeds win their games, Seattle will have to beat the Panthers, Packers, and Patriots to repeat as champs. Not the easiest of all roads to another title.
Team They Would Hate To See - Dallas
Team They Would Love To See - Arizona
Green Bay Packers
12-4, #2 seed, NFC North Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 36-16 at Seattle, lost 19-7 at Detroit, won 38-17 vs Carolina, won 26-21 vs New England, won 30-20 vs Detroit
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Aaron Rodgers - Obviously! Rodgers has been unbelievable this year as he has put up a line of 4,381 yards, 38 TDs, and only five interceptions. He has been lights out at home, and will only have to leave Lambeau if the Seahawks are still alive in the NFC Championship Game. He has played at an MVP level this year and I see no reason why that won't carry over into the playoffs.
Eddie Lacy - Lost in the aerial bonanza that takes place every time Green Bay plays is how well Lacy has done this year. He's battled some aches and pains, but has gone over 1,000 yards for the second time in two years to go along with nine rushing TDs, and a 4.6 yards per carry average. He has also contributed in the passing game as he has 42 receptions for 427 yards and four TDs. When teams focus on locking down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, Lacy is ready to be a critical piece in the passing game. Despite some stout run defenses in the NFC (Detroit, Arizona, Seattle), Lacy will need to play a crucial part in the success of this team.
Home Field Advantage - Home field is critical for any team, but particularly for the Pack. It's not really so much about how well they play at home, which they do, but how relatively awful they are on the road. They lost in Seattle, were held to seven points in a loss in Detroit, got to beat down a terrible Bears team in Chicago, were a fake spike away from losing in Miami, got demolished 44-23 in the Superdome, won by a mere field goal in Minnesota, lost to a Kyle Orton-led Bufflo team, then only managed 20 points in a win over the Bucs. If they do wind up having to travel to the Northwest, they better figure out how to fix their road woes.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Defense - Similar to how Seattle's average offense is protected by their elite defense, Green Bay's average defense is protected by their elite offense. This defense can afford to give up yards and points because they know Rodgers and co. will likely post a score in the 30s or 40s. That is a risky game to play. When the offense can't produce at that clip, however, it will likely be the end of the Pack in the playoffs. They played with fire against the Falcons and won, but did the same against the Saints and lost. If the offense stalls, can this defense steal a game or two in the playoffs? I have my doubts.
Aaron Rodgers' Calf - Packers fans held their breath last week when Rodgers went down with a calf injury and had to be carted off the field. Not only did it seem like their shot at a NFC North crown was out the door, but any hopes of a deep playoff run left with that cart. Luckily for them, Rodgers came back and led the Pack to the win, earning them the number two seed and a crucial extra week of rest. Still, he wasn't as mobile in the second half, and it is quite possible he is not fully healed by January 11th, even with the extra rest. If Matt Flynn leads the Pack to a Super Bowl, I think the universe may explode.
Seattle - Let's be honest, if the defense does enough to get the job done and Rodgers stays healthy, the Pack are a virtual lock for the NFC Championship Game. The problem is, they would have to go to Seattle against an elite defense. I have a feeling this would turn out very similar to the Buffalo game that Green Bay played in Week 15. Rodgers would have a hard time cracking an elite defense in a hostile environment, and Seattle's offense would do just enough to earn them the win. The Pack have to hope that someone knocks them off before Championship weekend.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
12-4, #3 seed, NFC East Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 30-23 at Seattle, lost 28-17 vs Arizona, won 42-7 vs Indianapolis
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Offensive Line - This unit is the best offensive line in the game. They have helped paved the way for DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo's excellent years. They were a big reason why Dallas was able to go into Seattle and win that game. They won up front at the line of scrimmage, limiting the amount of pressure Seattle could get and limiting the amount of times Dallas had to attack the Legion of Boom secondary. This unit's hardest test will be this weekend against the Lions, particularly if Nick Fairley can play. This line is the reason the Cowboys have gotten this far.
Rod Marinelli - Marinelli will see familiar faces in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Marinelli coached the Lions from 2006-08, then faced them twice a year as the defensive coordinator of the Bears from 2010-12. Marinelli faced the Pack twice a year during both of those stints. Obviously the Lions, Packers, and Cowboys are all different since then, but familiarity always helps in any matchup. Marinelli has resurrected this defense from the disaster that was last year and has them playing above their talent levels. Individually they're average at best, but they play above average as a unit. In facing Megatron this weekend, and possibly Rodgers, Nelson, Lacy, and Cobb next weekend, this unit will need to hold up.
Tony Romo - Where did this Tony Romo come from? After a few years of making the wrong mistake at the wrong time, Romo has begun to start making the right plays at any time. He has his highest QB rating of his career, the second most TD passes, and tied for the least amount of interceptions during a 15+ game season. He seems to be fully over the back injury that plagued him at the start of the year, and is playing at an elite level. There's even talk he should get consideration for MVP of the league. He could care less about that though as he is determined to win Dallas a Super Bowl after years of excelling in the regular season, then collapsing down the stretch.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Strength Of Schedule - They only played three games against current playoff teams out of 16 games. Not the best way to prepare, although their last one came in Week 16 in a rout of the Colts. Looking back on their schedule and reflecting on how teams actually turned out, their record is neither impressive or surprising. The only real shockers were a win in Seattle, an overtime loss to the Colt McCoy-led Redskins on Monday Night, and a 33-10 pasting at the hands of the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Granted, they took care of the teams they were supposed to, but everyone in the playoffs is great. I'm not sure their regular season schedule prepared them for the gauntlet of teams they will face in the coming week(s).
Defense - Marinelli might have them playing above expectations, but they still aren't that good. The only team they held to single digits all year were the Colts, and they made the game against the Bears, win in Philly, win in St. Louis, and both Giants games closer than they needed to be. I think this unit can at least contain Calvin Johnson this weekend and halt the Lions' offense, but I have no idea what they would come up with to even slow down Rodgers and the Packers. This unit plays hard and tackles well, but even that might not be enough if the Cowboys make a deep run in the playoffs.
There's No Great Matchup - Dallas doesn't really match up, at least on paper, with any of these teams. Green Bay can destroy their defense, Detroit's strength is in its defensive front seven to stop Murray and the run, Cam, Carolina, and the read option will likely give Dallas' defense headaches, Seattle's defense is back to being elite, and Arizona already beat Dallas albeit with Brandon Weeden as the starting QB. Dallas still only managed seven offensive points 92 team rushing yards in that loss to the Cardinals. I would say that Seattle might be Dallas' best chance simply because they beat them earlier in the year, but it will be a grind for Dallas no matter who they play.
Team They Would Hate To See - Panthers
Team They Would Love To See - Seattle
Carolina Panthers
7-8-1, #4 seed, NFC South Champs
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 24-7 vs Detroit, lost 37-19 vs Pittsburgh, lost 38-10 at Baltimore, tied 37-37 at Cincinnati, lost 38-17 at Green Bay, lost 13-9 vs Seattle
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Running Game - Jonathan Stewart finally seems to be healthy and running at a good clip. He exceeded 100 yards rushing in two of Carolina's last four games, and has worked to separate himself from the injured, but returning, DeAngelo Williams. Cam Newton is also back to his old running ways after being protected at the start of the season due to offseason ankle surgery. The read option is fully back and should keep any defense on their toes. This will, in turn, open up the play action for Cam to hit rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin on passes.
Defense Is Picking Up - Coming off a phenomenal defensive season last year, this season was much rockier. From Weeks 3-7, they gave up at least 37 points four times. Since their bye week, however, this defense has really picked it up. Week 13 shows that Minnesota posted 31 points on them, but 14 of those points were from blocked punts and the Panthers held Minnesota to only 210 total yards. The following week, they held Drew Brees and the Saints to 310 yards in the Superdome. Finally, with the division on the line, they held the Falcons to 288 total yards in the Georgia Dome and scored two defensive TDs. If they can come anywhere close to the level they were playing last year, it will be tough to score on the Panthers, no matter who they're facing.
Luck Of The Draw - Can this team have any more things fall into place for them? This is a team that had a run from Weeks 3-13, only won one game, and still won their division! Despite almost trying to give the division away, the Saints and Falcons were equally terrible, allowing a 7-8-1 team to make the playoffs and host a playoff game. Their luck doesn't stop there, however. Because of the way everything worked out in the NFC playoff picture, Carolina was able to avoid Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo, and will instead face...Ryan Lindley. Obviously anything can happen and the Cards' defense is no joke, but knowing that you won't have to face a QB that can hang huge numbers on you is a plus for this Carolina team.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Who Have You Beaten? - Well, no one really. They beat Detroit early in the year, but the rest of their wins have come against sub-.500 teams. Along the way, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Minnesota absolutely demolished them. While Dallas is a team that hasn't had many tests, Carolina is a team that has had many, and has failed many. Unlike in the regular season, there are no pushover teams in the playoffs. When push comes to shove, will Carolina be able to shove back against the best teams in the NFL?
Decide On A Lead Running Back - It sounds as if DeAngelo Williams is ready to play in this weekend's game. It will be interesting to see if they decide to integrate Williams back into the starting lineup with Stewart playing so well recently. I think when they keep rotating these backs over and over again, it gets them out of rhythm and leads to a downgrade in production for both of them. Even though Williams has given a lot to this franchise, I think they need to let him take a back seat to Stewart so that he can continue the hot streak he is on.
Lack Of Experience - This is a young team. The only taste of the playoffs that a lot of these guys have had was last year. They earned the second seed in the NFC and got a first round bye. They were unceremoniously whooped 23-10 in the divisional round against San Francisco. How does a young team react to major changes during the game? Perhaps Ryan Lindley has the game of his life and the Panthers find themselves having to play catch up. Will Cam keep his composure? It's sometimes easy for younger, inexperienced teams to lose focus once the bright lights come on.
Team They Would Hate To See - Green Bay
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Arizona Cardinals
11-5, #5 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 41-20 at Denver, won 28-17 at Dallas, won 14-6 vs Detroit, lost 19-3 at Seattle, lost 35-6 vs Seattle
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - If this team goes anywhere, it will be because of this unit. They have really been put under the gun recently due to the Cardinals' inability to move the ball and have cracked because of it (35-6 loss vs Seattle in Week 16). Despite this, they are still one of the most talented units in the league and excel in stopping Carolina's strength which is running the football. The defense cannot afford to have a bad day against Carolina as they can hopefully get the win to get Drew Stanton back in time for the Divisional Round game.
Offensive Playcalling - Even when Carson Palmer was the quarterback, it's not like this offense was considered as high powered as the Broncos or Eagles. While they don't move the chains as frequently or effectively as those teams, they do call enough deep shots and risky plays to put enough points on the board. This aggressive playcalling hasn't stopped, even with Lindley under center. The Cardinals would be fine with getting almost no offense, hitting on three big plays, counting on their defense, and winning a game along the lines of 17-10. It won't be pretty offensively, but all the Cardinals need to be is opportunistic with their chances.
Wide Receivers - Look, it's hard to find anything to get too excited about offensively with this team, but receiver is certainly where the skill is. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best in the game, Michael Floyd leads the team in yards and TDs, and John Brown has delivered some long plays in his rookie season as he is second on the team with five TDs. If Lindley can just get the ball in the general area of these guys, there's a pretty good bet that they will make a play. The strength for Carolina is their front seven so it would be wise to attack the Panthers through the air.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Quarterback - This goes without saying. You can only ask the defense to do so much when your offense can't move the ball and leaves the defense in bad spots. Drew Stanton might come back if the Cards win this game, but that's a big if and a big might. It just puts so much pressure on your team knowing that your offense will be lucky to score 17 points. Given the situation at QB, a deep playoff run seems improbable with a Super Bowl appearance/win seemingly impossible.
Third Time's A Nightmare - More than likely, if the Cards are to somehow win the NFC, they will have to beat Seattle after losing to them twice. Both times the Arizona defense actually played really well, but in those two games, the Arizona offense managed nine points combined. Lindley's effort actually produced more points (six) then Stanton's (three). Either way, they were overwhelmed towards the end of each game by their divisional rival, and nothing has changed that would make me give Arizona a better chance than the previous two times.
Running - Out of 32 NFL teams, Arizona is ranked 31st in total rushing yards behind only the Oakland Raiders. The problem for Arizona is that they are kind of in a catch-22 situation because their QB play has been so woeful. Teams stack the box and dare you to throw the ball. So do you run at a wall of eight defenders or trust your third string QB to try and make a play? They're 24th in the league in rushing attempts so they're kind of trying to run, but it seems like a lost cause, particularly if they get down early. If they do decide to establish the run against stacked boxes, they need to stay the course for as long as the score allows them to.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Detroit Lions
11-5, #6 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 24-7 at Carolina, won 19-7 vs Green Bay, lost 14-6 at Arizona, lost 34-9 at New England, lost 30-20 at Green Bay
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Healthy - The Lions are probably the healthiest they've been all year. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson have all missed time this year, but all seem to be at or near 100%. Matthew Stafford and the Lions will need all hands on deck for this weekend's game and, if they win, a trip to Seattle next weekend. Stafford really struggles when he doesn't have all his players, particularly Johnson, so he should feel a lot more comfortable this Sunday in Dallas.
Suh Escaping Suspension - Ndamukong Suh's status was up in the air during the week as he was originally suspended for this game for stepping on the leg of Aaron Rodgers. Suh won his appeal, however, and will indeed be out there. With fellow defensive tackle Nick Fairley questionable due to injury, Suh's return is critical considering how successful the Cowboys' run game has been this year. The Lions rank first in rush yards allowed and the Cowboys are second in rush yards for. This game will be won and lost in the trenches, and Suh's presence should make a difference.
Megatron - Megatron, or Calvin Johnson, should feast in this game. The Cowboys, along with a lot of other teams, don't really have anyone that can match up with him one on one. That means safety help and openings for other capable players like Golden Tate or Bush out of the backfield. Dallas has only faced a handful of elite wide receivers, but Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr., Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson have all had great lines against this Cowboy defense. I expect the Lions to target Johnson early and often to try and move the ball down the field.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has had a down year by his standards as he threw for the least amount of yards in a season where he played 16 games, threw only 22 TDs, to go along with 12 interceptions and six fumbles. He, like Tony Romo, has the reputation of choking down the stretch and making that crucial mistake that costs his team a game. He almost cost the Lions a playoff spot in Week 16 as he threw two picks deep in Bears territory to allow Jimmy Clausen to almost pull off the upset. Unlike how the Cowboys are protecting Romo from himself, the Lions don't seem to be doing that with Stafford. That might come back to bite them as early as this Sunday.
Running - Detroit is right below Arizona in rushing attempts and right down there with the Cardinals in rushing yards at 28th in the league. Joique Bell has been running better as of late, but they are still not a team that will ground and pound you into submission like the Cowboys and Seahawks do. Putting the ball in Stafford's hands and trusting him not to make a mistake is a gamble. The Cowboys swarm to the ball well, and should be able to stop the run relatively well as Detroit's line is decent, but not great. I think they would have more success in the short passing game with Bush, rather than trying to slam it in the trenches with Bell and/or Bush.
No Home, Big Problem - Must be a NFC North thing. Similar to the Packers, the Lions are a shell of themselves when they go on the road. They lost in Carolina, beat the Jets by a TD in New York, won 17-3 over Minnesota, beat Atlanta by one, lost in the desert, got killed by the Patriots, almost lost to Jimmy Clausen in Chicago, then lost the NFC North title in Green Bay. As the sixth seed, they'll have to win in Dallas, in Seattle, and potentially, try once again to win in Green Bay. Whether it's changing routine before games or changing the way they call games, the Lions need to figure it out in the coming weeks.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Carolina
Matty O
Friday, January 2, 2015
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Why Jim Harbaugh Would Be A Great Fit For The Bears
So maybe Marc Trestman wasn't the savior the Bears thought he would be. The two time Grey Cup winning coach in the Canadian Football League found much less success in the National Football League. The Bears finished 8-8 last year and couldn't win the division, despite Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers missing time. 2014 has been even more of a train wreck as the defense has somehow gotten worse, Jay Cutler has now been benched, and the Bears are guaranteed to have a losing record this year. While no action has been taken yet, it is becoming more and more likely that Trestman is fired at the end of the year.
The question now becomes who replaces him? The answer to that question may lie all the way on the West Coast, with a coach that is experiencing his own nightmare of a season. Jim Harbaugh had taken his San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship Game three years in a row prior to 2014. While four in a row is certainly hard to do, people had to believe that Harbaugh and the Niners would have a chance to be there, and at worst, make the playoffs. After Week 15, however, those possibilities are gone as the Niners are now eliminated from the playoffs. Depending on how the final two weeks of the season go, there is a chance that the currently 7-7 Niners will suffer their first losing season under Harbaugh. His QB, Colin Kaepernick, has regressed badly, and the dominant defense has been plagued by injury. Despite his first three successful years, Harbaugh, like Trestman, is rumored to be on the way out.
Harbaugh: The Real QB Whisperer
The three people at the top of Bears' fans' hate list currently are Trestman, GM Phil Emery, and QB Jay Cutler. While Harbaugh can do nothing to help Trestman or Emery, he can help out with Cutler. If there's one thing Harbaugh has shown he can do consistently, it's develop QBs, even those left for dead. Let's look at his time as the head coach at Stanford. While Andrew Luck is recognized as the best young QB in the game today, it was not always that way. Coming out of high school, Luck was the seventh rated QB behind the likes of Terrelle Pryor (1), Mike Glennon (3), Blaine Gabbert (5), and E.J. Manuel (6).
Harbaugh was there for Luck's redshirt freshman, freshman, and sophomore seasons. In his sophomore season, Stanford went 12-1, won the Orange Bowl with Luck as the game MVP, and Luck finished second in the Heisman voting. By that time, he was already considered the best QB prospect in college football, but bypassed the draft to come back for his junior season. Luck came back, but Harbaugh left to pursue the challenge of coaching in the NFL with the 49ers.
The QB he inherited in San Fran was Alex Smith. This is the same Alex Smith that was taken first overall by the Niners in the 2005 draft, and was deemed a bust and a joke by the time Harbaugh took the head coaching job in 2011. By that time, Smith had already had a disastrous rookie campaign (nine games, 1 TD, 11 interceptions), an entire season missed due to injury (2008), and had been pulled in favor of the likes of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. From the moment Harbaugh signed on to the team, however, the entire narrative changed.
In 2011, Smith had, by far, his best season as a pro up to that point. He finished with his highest QB rating, best completion percentage, most yards, least interceptions (for a 16 game season), and most rushing yards than he had in any season prior. The Niners went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship Game. In 2012, Smith was actually having an even better season and looked like the guy they thought they were drafting first overall in 2005. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on how you look at it, Smith went down with an injury in Week 10 against the Rams. This gave way to the Niners' second round pick in 2011, Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick actually had a very successful college career, but didn't get the attention because he went to the University of Nevada. He captured everyone's attention pretty quickly, however, as he displayed excellent athleticism and a surprisingly good arm. His play earned him the start over Smith once Smith was healthy. They rode Kaepernick's arm and legs all the way to an 11-4-1 record and a berth in the Super Bowl. They were so confident in Kaepernick that they decided to let Smith walk in the offseason to sign with Kansas City. It worked out for both sides as Kaepernick continued his stellar play in 2013 as he threw for over 3,000 yards and had 25 total TDs as the Niners went back to the NFC Championship Game. Smith, meanwhile, set career highs in passing yards, TDs, and rushing yards as he led KC to an 11-5 record but lost in a crazy playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts.
So, for the record, Harbaugh has turned a 7th rated QB in high school into a number one overall draft pick, a bust left for dead into a playoff-winning QB, and a backup QB out of Nevada into one of the more feared dual threat QBs in the league. It's obviously not a guarantee Cutler will even be in Chicago if Harbaugh were to come to the Bears, but whoever is there, I think Harbaugh can help tremendously.
Philosophy
Anyone that has seen the 49ers play during Harbaugh's tenure can tell exactly what his philosophy is. He wants to run the ball, control both lines of scrimmage, and play sound defense. It might not be pretty to watch, but it gets the W at the end of the day. Not only would running the ball get the ball to the Bears' most reliable player (Matt Forte), but it would also take the ball out of the hands of the Bears' most unreliable player (Cutler). Controlling the clock is key as it would allow the defense to face fewer plays, giving them less chances to be exposed.
While the defense is certainly devoid of talent, schemes and number of plays faced can help to mask some of the weaknesses. Look at the Cowboys this year. As far as talent is concerned, you could argue that their historically bad defense from last year had more. The difference is that Rod Marinelli is getting 110% out of his players and the Cowboy offense controls the ball, allowing the defense to rest and putting them in favorable positions. That needs to be the model for the Bears. They need to accept the fact that they don't have elite individual talent anymore on defense and try to minimize the amount of times they are on the field. A change in culture and philosophy can help that transition.
A Little Bit Of Crazy
Harbaugh is an interesting character. His boisterous and fiery demeanor has been seen as a pro and a con. He displays plenty of passion, but sometimes being in that kind of frenzy all the time can wear on people. That seems to have happened in San Fran. I think things would fare differently in the Windy City. Harbaugh's personality seems to be the exact opposite of Trestman's and I think that is what this team needs right now. I'm not saying someone with a calm demeanor like Trestman's can't be successful (Tony Dungy), but a little emotion is required. Harbaugh shows more emotion tying his shoe than Trestman does after a Bears' win. Some of the greats of the Bears (Mike Ditka, Mike Singletary), were known for their outbursts and loud personalities. Harbaugh fits that same kind of mold.
Obstacles
While I think Harbaugh would excel with the Bears, there are still some obstacles to point out. For starters, the Bears need to start drafting better. I mentioned how ball control can mask defensive deficiencies, but it would still be nice to have some help there. Not to take too much away from Harbaugh, but he inherited a stacked 49ers' roster, particularly on defense. Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, and Aldon Smith were all drafted by the 49ers by the time Harbaugh started coaching. The Bears have Kyle Fuller to build around, but nothing compared to what the Niners were supplied with. The offensive side of the ball is considerably better than in San Fran, though the line needs to be cleaned up. If the season ended today, the Bears would have the ninth overall pick, so it will be crucial to get a starter, and possible superstar on the defensive side of the ball or on the offensive line.
There's also the fact that Trestman hasn't been officially fired yet. While it is widely assumed that he will, there's a chance that a successful run these last two games by Jimmy Clausen could save his job. If Clausen does well, Trestman can point out that both Clausen and Josh McCown had success in his system, so the problem must be Cutler. While I doubt Clausen will be any kind of successful against the Lions and Vikings, he is the only guy who can possibly save Trestman's job.
The final issue is that coaching for the Oakland Raiders or Michigan Wolverines are also lucrative opportunities. He would be given total control at Michigan, his alma mater, to try and resurrect the once dominant college football program. With Oakland, he would be able to stay in the Bay Area where his family wants him to stay. While he would probably be given less total control than he would at Michigan, he would have more control than with the Bears. Oakland also has a project QB in Derek Carr, who has shown flashes this year, fifth overall pick in 2014 Khalil Mack, and likely a top five draft pick for the 2015 draft.
The attitude and culture that Harbaugh would bring would be beneficial to the Bears' organization. He's had success at the collegiate level, in the NFL, and has helped develop three productive quarterbacks in the league. After coming so close three times with San Fran, I think Harbaugh wants to stay in the NFL and capture the ultimate prize in football coaching. Chicago might just be the team and city that helps him fulfill that wish.
Matty O
The question now becomes who replaces him? The answer to that question may lie all the way on the West Coast, with a coach that is experiencing his own nightmare of a season. Jim Harbaugh had taken his San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship Game three years in a row prior to 2014. While four in a row is certainly hard to do, people had to believe that Harbaugh and the Niners would have a chance to be there, and at worst, make the playoffs. After Week 15, however, those possibilities are gone as the Niners are now eliminated from the playoffs. Depending on how the final two weeks of the season go, there is a chance that the currently 7-7 Niners will suffer their first losing season under Harbaugh. His QB, Colin Kaepernick, has regressed badly, and the dominant defense has been plagued by injury. Despite his first three successful years, Harbaugh, like Trestman, is rumored to be on the way out.
Harbaugh: The Real QB Whisperer
The three people at the top of Bears' fans' hate list currently are Trestman, GM Phil Emery, and QB Jay Cutler. While Harbaugh can do nothing to help Trestman or Emery, he can help out with Cutler. If there's one thing Harbaugh has shown he can do consistently, it's develop QBs, even those left for dead. Let's look at his time as the head coach at Stanford. While Andrew Luck is recognized as the best young QB in the game today, it was not always that way. Coming out of high school, Luck was the seventh rated QB behind the likes of Terrelle Pryor (1), Mike Glennon (3), Blaine Gabbert (5), and E.J. Manuel (6).
Harbaugh was there for Luck's redshirt freshman, freshman, and sophomore seasons. In his sophomore season, Stanford went 12-1, won the Orange Bowl with Luck as the game MVP, and Luck finished second in the Heisman voting. By that time, he was already considered the best QB prospect in college football, but bypassed the draft to come back for his junior season. Luck came back, but Harbaugh left to pursue the challenge of coaching in the NFL with the 49ers.
The QB he inherited in San Fran was Alex Smith. This is the same Alex Smith that was taken first overall by the Niners in the 2005 draft, and was deemed a bust and a joke by the time Harbaugh took the head coaching job in 2011. By that time, Smith had already had a disastrous rookie campaign (nine games, 1 TD, 11 interceptions), an entire season missed due to injury (2008), and had been pulled in favor of the likes of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. From the moment Harbaugh signed on to the team, however, the entire narrative changed.
In 2011, Smith had, by far, his best season as a pro up to that point. He finished with his highest QB rating, best completion percentage, most yards, least interceptions (for a 16 game season), and most rushing yards than he had in any season prior. The Niners went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship Game. In 2012, Smith was actually having an even better season and looked like the guy they thought they were drafting first overall in 2005. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on how you look at it, Smith went down with an injury in Week 10 against the Rams. This gave way to the Niners' second round pick in 2011, Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick actually had a very successful college career, but didn't get the attention because he went to the University of Nevada. He captured everyone's attention pretty quickly, however, as he displayed excellent athleticism and a surprisingly good arm. His play earned him the start over Smith once Smith was healthy. They rode Kaepernick's arm and legs all the way to an 11-4-1 record and a berth in the Super Bowl. They were so confident in Kaepernick that they decided to let Smith walk in the offseason to sign with Kansas City. It worked out for both sides as Kaepernick continued his stellar play in 2013 as he threw for over 3,000 yards and had 25 total TDs as the Niners went back to the NFC Championship Game. Smith, meanwhile, set career highs in passing yards, TDs, and rushing yards as he led KC to an 11-5 record but lost in a crazy playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts.
So, for the record, Harbaugh has turned a 7th rated QB in high school into a number one overall draft pick, a bust left for dead into a playoff-winning QB, and a backup QB out of Nevada into one of the more feared dual threat QBs in the league. It's obviously not a guarantee Cutler will even be in Chicago if Harbaugh were to come to the Bears, but whoever is there, I think Harbaugh can help tremendously.
Philosophy
Anyone that has seen the 49ers play during Harbaugh's tenure can tell exactly what his philosophy is. He wants to run the ball, control both lines of scrimmage, and play sound defense. It might not be pretty to watch, but it gets the W at the end of the day. Not only would running the ball get the ball to the Bears' most reliable player (Matt Forte), but it would also take the ball out of the hands of the Bears' most unreliable player (Cutler). Controlling the clock is key as it would allow the defense to face fewer plays, giving them less chances to be exposed.
While the defense is certainly devoid of talent, schemes and number of plays faced can help to mask some of the weaknesses. Look at the Cowboys this year. As far as talent is concerned, you could argue that their historically bad defense from last year had more. The difference is that Rod Marinelli is getting 110% out of his players and the Cowboy offense controls the ball, allowing the defense to rest and putting them in favorable positions. That needs to be the model for the Bears. They need to accept the fact that they don't have elite individual talent anymore on defense and try to minimize the amount of times they are on the field. A change in culture and philosophy can help that transition.
A Little Bit Of Crazy
Harbaugh is an interesting character. His boisterous and fiery demeanor has been seen as a pro and a con. He displays plenty of passion, but sometimes being in that kind of frenzy all the time can wear on people. That seems to have happened in San Fran. I think things would fare differently in the Windy City. Harbaugh's personality seems to be the exact opposite of Trestman's and I think that is what this team needs right now. I'm not saying someone with a calm demeanor like Trestman's can't be successful (Tony Dungy), but a little emotion is required. Harbaugh shows more emotion tying his shoe than Trestman does after a Bears' win. Some of the greats of the Bears (Mike Ditka, Mike Singletary), were known for their outbursts and loud personalities. Harbaugh fits that same kind of mold.
Obstacles
While I think Harbaugh would excel with the Bears, there are still some obstacles to point out. For starters, the Bears need to start drafting better. I mentioned how ball control can mask defensive deficiencies, but it would still be nice to have some help there. Not to take too much away from Harbaugh, but he inherited a stacked 49ers' roster, particularly on defense. Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, and Aldon Smith were all drafted by the 49ers by the time Harbaugh started coaching. The Bears have Kyle Fuller to build around, but nothing compared to what the Niners were supplied with. The offensive side of the ball is considerably better than in San Fran, though the line needs to be cleaned up. If the season ended today, the Bears would have the ninth overall pick, so it will be crucial to get a starter, and possible superstar on the defensive side of the ball or on the offensive line.
There's also the fact that Trestman hasn't been officially fired yet. While it is widely assumed that he will, there's a chance that a successful run these last two games by Jimmy Clausen could save his job. If Clausen does well, Trestman can point out that both Clausen and Josh McCown had success in his system, so the problem must be Cutler. While I doubt Clausen will be any kind of successful against the Lions and Vikings, he is the only guy who can possibly save Trestman's job.
The final issue is that coaching for the Oakland Raiders or Michigan Wolverines are also lucrative opportunities. He would be given total control at Michigan, his alma mater, to try and resurrect the once dominant college football program. With Oakland, he would be able to stay in the Bay Area where his family wants him to stay. While he would probably be given less total control than he would at Michigan, he would have more control than with the Bears. Oakland also has a project QB in Derek Carr, who has shown flashes this year, fifth overall pick in 2014 Khalil Mack, and likely a top five draft pick for the 2015 draft.
The attitude and culture that Harbaugh would bring would be beneficial to the Bears' organization. He's had success at the collegiate level, in the NFL, and has helped develop three productive quarterbacks in the league. After coming so close three times with San Fran, I think Harbaugh wants to stay in the NFL and capture the ultimate prize in football coaching. Chicago might just be the team and city that helps him fulfill that wish.
Matty O
Monday, December 15, 2014
Matty O's 2015 Pro Bowl Ballot
Quarterback (pick 6)
Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
Pretty easy selections here. Unfortunately you can only pick six QBs as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Russell Wilson probably could make the argument to go to the Pro Bowl as well.
Running Back (pick 6)
Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Five of these guys are no brainers, but Forsett might surprise you. Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster supporters would probably argue against Forsett being in, but here's a guy that started the year third on the depth chart and was thrust into the starting position due to suspension (Ray Rice) and injury (Bernard Pierce). He has run for 1,080 yards with an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average. He's also caught 37 passes and scored eight total TDs. I think a trip to the Pro Bowl is due for this player who is on his fourth team.
Wide Receiver (pick 8)
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas
Lots of new names here. This year has seen veteran guys fade (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne), elite guys hampered by injury (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson), and a youngster come on strong at the end (Odell Beckham, Jr.), but the above eight guys have been consistently good all year. The three sort of unexpected guys on here are Hopkins, Maclin, and Sanders. Despite a carousel at QB, Hopkins has managed to go over 1,000 yards receiving and outperform Andre Johnson. Maclin has come back strong after he missed the entire 2013 season due to injury. He's gone over 1,100 yards and reached double digit TDs. Sanders, meanwhile, has kept pace with teammate Demaryius Thomas and posted nearly identical numbers.
Fullback (pick 2)
John Kuhn, Marcel Reece
Reece is the highlight here as he is, by far, the most versatile fullback in the league. He has 74 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving on 32 catches, and one TD. I'd really like to see him get out of Oakland and go to a team like Philly or New Orleans who would use him in creative ways.
Tight End (pick 4)
Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
This was probably the easiest category to pick as the top four are pretty clear cut. Jimmy Graham had a down year, as did the rest of the Saints' offense, and Antonio Gates just didn't put up the numbers that these four guys did.
Offensive Tackle (pick 6)
Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Clady, Doug Free, Russell Okung, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas
I'm not going to pretend to have expertise when it comes to offensive line so my picks for offensive tackle, guard, and center will probably be based on names I'm familiar with and/or someone who really has stood out when I watched on TV.
Offensive Guard (pick 6)
Joel Bitonio, David DeCastro, Orlando Franklin, Zack Martin, Josh Sitton, Marshal Yanda
Center (pick 4)
Travis Frederick, Corey Linsley, Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Defensive End (pick 6)
Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, Mario Williams
DE was stacked this year. The next six that didn't make my ballot (Ezekiel Ansah, Willie Young, Calais Campbell, Jerry Hughes, Olivier Vernon, Chris Clemons) would still make up a formidable group of defensive ends. The highlight here is obviously Watt as I believe he should be the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it due to the award being skewed towards the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Tackle (pick 6)
Marcell Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Stephen Paea, Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Muhammed Wilkerson
Another stacked category. The two guys I want to focus on are the two Jets, Wilkerson and Richardson. They have a combined 11 sacks, two forced fumbles, and have helped anchor the number four overall rushing defense in the league. It's important to note that the Jets were trailing in most of their games this year so even with the added "kill the clock" carries they faced, they were still holding up. If they could find some guys in the secondary, this defense could become elite once again.
Inside Linebacker (pick 4)
D'Qwell Jackson, Luke Kuechly, C.J. Mosley, Lawrence Timmons
Mosley is the one that has impressed me the most as he's a rookie on a team that prides itself on defense. He has responded with over 100 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. I'm not ready to make any Ray Lewis comparisons yet, but he certainly gives this defense a bright future. He's turning out to be a steal, even at 17th overall in this year's draft.
Outside Linebacker (pick 6)
Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Marshall, Von Miller
The two guys I want to highlight here are Barwin and Marshall. Each time I've watched an Eagles (Barwin) or Broncos (Marshall) game, these two seem to be everywhere. Barwin flies all over the field and has 13 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles to show for it. Marshall, meanwhile, seems to constantly fly under the radar with Miller and Ware also on the Broncos' defense, and a more famous Brandon Marshall playing receiver in Chicago. The Broncos' Marshall has over 100 tackles and seems to be a fundamentally sound football player.
Cornerback (pick 8)
Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Joe Haden, Keenan Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Buster Skrine, Aqib Talib
If the players actually give 100% effort in the Pro Bowl, I would love to see the CB vs WR matchups in this game. The three highlights here are Revis, Lewis, and Sherman. Revis Island is definitely back, and for a while, Lewis had his own island going before he got injured. Sherman is Sherman and can still shut down one side of the field, even though people have been trying to pick apart his game all year.
Strong Safety (pick 2)
Kam Chancellor, Donte Whitner
Not only are they the two best strong safties in the league, but they are two of the hardest hitters in the NFL.
Free Safety (pick 2)
Tashaun Gipson, Earl Thomas
Thomas was an easy pick, but it was tough to choose between Gipson and Chargers' safety Eric Weddle. Since Weddle and Thomas play a similar game, I went with Gipson as he is more of a play maker and ball hawk than either guy. Gipson leads all safeties in interceptions with six, and is allowed to float around with Whitner playing beside him.
Kicker (pick 2)
Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri
Carpenter has attempted the most FGs this year and is 28/32 and has banged one through from 58. Vinatieri is a perfect 27/27 as he continues to build on his Hall of Fame career.
Punter (pick 2)
Shane Lechler, Pat McAfee
The two best punters in the league were playing against each other this past weekend. Both have done it for a while and both can absolutely crush the ball.
Return Specialist (pick 2)
Devin Hester, Darren Sproles
Two easy picks here. Hester looks like a new man in Atlanta, as he has the highest punt return average in the league, a punt return TD, and almost 1000 kickoff return yards. Sproles, meanwhile, has the second highest punt return average and two punt return TDs. Both are electric and you have to hold your breath whenever they get even a sliver of room on returns.
Special Teamer (pick 2)
Matt Slater
I know you're supposed to pick two, but I really don't know anything about any of the other candidates. Slater is almost always the first guy down the field on punts and kickoffs for the Patriots. He deserves to go. Coin flip for the rest.
Disagree with my picks? Want to see your favorite player make the trip to the Pro Bowl? Well then, go here to vote for your favorite players.
Matty O
Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
Pretty easy selections here. Unfortunately you can only pick six QBs as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Russell Wilson probably could make the argument to go to the Pro Bowl as well.
Running Back (pick 6)
Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Five of these guys are no brainers, but Forsett might surprise you. Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster supporters would probably argue against Forsett being in, but here's a guy that started the year third on the depth chart and was thrust into the starting position due to suspension (Ray Rice) and injury (Bernard Pierce). He has run for 1,080 yards with an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average. He's also caught 37 passes and scored eight total TDs. I think a trip to the Pro Bowl is due for this player who is on his fourth team.
Wide Receiver (pick 8)
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas
Lots of new names here. This year has seen veteran guys fade (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne), elite guys hampered by injury (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson), and a youngster come on strong at the end (Odell Beckham, Jr.), but the above eight guys have been consistently good all year. The three sort of unexpected guys on here are Hopkins, Maclin, and Sanders. Despite a carousel at QB, Hopkins has managed to go over 1,000 yards receiving and outperform Andre Johnson. Maclin has come back strong after he missed the entire 2013 season due to injury. He's gone over 1,100 yards and reached double digit TDs. Sanders, meanwhile, has kept pace with teammate Demaryius Thomas and posted nearly identical numbers.
Fullback (pick 2)
John Kuhn, Marcel Reece
Reece is the highlight here as he is, by far, the most versatile fullback in the league. He has 74 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving on 32 catches, and one TD. I'd really like to see him get out of Oakland and go to a team like Philly or New Orleans who would use him in creative ways.
Tight End (pick 4)
Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
This was probably the easiest category to pick as the top four are pretty clear cut. Jimmy Graham had a down year, as did the rest of the Saints' offense, and Antonio Gates just didn't put up the numbers that these four guys did.
Offensive Tackle (pick 6)
Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Clady, Doug Free, Russell Okung, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas
I'm not going to pretend to have expertise when it comes to offensive line so my picks for offensive tackle, guard, and center will probably be based on names I'm familiar with and/or someone who really has stood out when I watched on TV.
Offensive Guard (pick 6)
Joel Bitonio, David DeCastro, Orlando Franklin, Zack Martin, Josh Sitton, Marshal Yanda
Center (pick 4)
Travis Frederick, Corey Linsley, Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Defensive End (pick 6)
Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, Mario Williams
DE was stacked this year. The next six that didn't make my ballot (Ezekiel Ansah, Willie Young, Calais Campbell, Jerry Hughes, Olivier Vernon, Chris Clemons) would still make up a formidable group of defensive ends. The highlight here is obviously Watt as I believe he should be the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it due to the award being skewed towards the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Tackle (pick 6)
Marcell Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Stephen Paea, Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Muhammed Wilkerson
Another stacked category. The two guys I want to focus on are the two Jets, Wilkerson and Richardson. They have a combined 11 sacks, two forced fumbles, and have helped anchor the number four overall rushing defense in the league. It's important to note that the Jets were trailing in most of their games this year so even with the added "kill the clock" carries they faced, they were still holding up. If they could find some guys in the secondary, this defense could become elite once again.
Inside Linebacker (pick 4)
D'Qwell Jackson, Luke Kuechly, C.J. Mosley, Lawrence Timmons
Mosley is the one that has impressed me the most as he's a rookie on a team that prides itself on defense. He has responded with over 100 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. I'm not ready to make any Ray Lewis comparisons yet, but he certainly gives this defense a bright future. He's turning out to be a steal, even at 17th overall in this year's draft.
Outside Linebacker (pick 6)
Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Marshall, Von Miller
The two guys I want to highlight here are Barwin and Marshall. Each time I've watched an Eagles (Barwin) or Broncos (Marshall) game, these two seem to be everywhere. Barwin flies all over the field and has 13 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles to show for it. Marshall, meanwhile, seems to constantly fly under the radar with Miller and Ware also on the Broncos' defense, and a more famous Brandon Marshall playing receiver in Chicago. The Broncos' Marshall has over 100 tackles and seems to be a fundamentally sound football player.
Cornerback (pick 8)
Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Joe Haden, Keenan Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Buster Skrine, Aqib Talib
If the players actually give 100% effort in the Pro Bowl, I would love to see the CB vs WR matchups in this game. The three highlights here are Revis, Lewis, and Sherman. Revis Island is definitely back, and for a while, Lewis had his own island going before he got injured. Sherman is Sherman and can still shut down one side of the field, even though people have been trying to pick apart his game all year.
Strong Safety (pick 2)
Kam Chancellor, Donte Whitner
Not only are they the two best strong safties in the league, but they are two of the hardest hitters in the NFL.
Free Safety (pick 2)
Tashaun Gipson, Earl Thomas
Thomas was an easy pick, but it was tough to choose between Gipson and Chargers' safety Eric Weddle. Since Weddle and Thomas play a similar game, I went with Gipson as he is more of a play maker and ball hawk than either guy. Gipson leads all safeties in interceptions with six, and is allowed to float around with Whitner playing beside him.
Kicker (pick 2)
Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri
Carpenter has attempted the most FGs this year and is 28/32 and has banged one through from 58. Vinatieri is a perfect 27/27 as he continues to build on his Hall of Fame career.
Punter (pick 2)
Shane Lechler, Pat McAfee
The two best punters in the league were playing against each other this past weekend. Both have done it for a while and both can absolutely crush the ball.
Return Specialist (pick 2)
Devin Hester, Darren Sproles
Two easy picks here. Hester looks like a new man in Atlanta, as he has the highest punt return average in the league, a punt return TD, and almost 1000 kickoff return yards. Sproles, meanwhile, has the second highest punt return average and two punt return TDs. Both are electric and you have to hold your breath whenever they get even a sliver of room on returns.
Special Teamer (pick 2)
Matt Slater
I know you're supposed to pick two, but I really don't know anything about any of the other candidates. Slater is almost always the first guy down the field on punts and kickoffs for the Patriots. He deserves to go. Coin flip for the rest.
Disagree with my picks? Want to see your favorite player make the trip to the Pro Bowl? Well then, go here to vote for your favorite players.
Matty O
Friday, December 12, 2014
2014-15 Bowl/Playoff Preview
Did you hear the one about how the playoff system would get rid of controversy? That was a good one. In year number one of the playoff system, we wound up with a final four of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State. Baylor and TCU, meanwhile, were shunned from the playoffs despite having "better losses" than Ohio State's 35-21 early season loss at home to Virginia Tech. Since Baylor and TCU are in a conference that doesn't have a conference championship game, however, it was extremely hard to prove to the committee just how worthy they were on the final weekend of the season. With no outright Big 12 champion, the committee went with the SEC, Pac-12, ACC, and Big 10 champions to square off in the first ever college football playoff. Lost in all the playoff hype is the fact that there are still bowl games to be played, and some that should command your attention.
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
NFL Teams Giving Thanks
In the spirit of Thanksgiving, here are what NFL teams should be thankful for with five games left to go in the season.
The Arizona Cardinals are thankful that their defense is so good. That's really all they have to hang their hat on entering the playoffs as their offense cannot thrive with Drew Stanton under center. They've scored 17 total points in their past two games with Stanton under center combined. It was against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Seattle and Detroit), but it's not like those kind of defenses won't be there in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are thankful that they play six games against NFC South opponents. They are 4-0 in their division and 0-7 outside of it. They have three outside their division left and two in their division. That would give them a final record of 6-10 if everything keeps going this way. Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC South.
The Baltimore Ravens are thankful that they signed Justin Forsett. Forsett, a journeyman NFL player on his fourth NFL team in six seasons, was buried on the depth chart behind Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. After Rice got suspended and Pierce got hurt, however, it was Forsett who had to pick up the slack for the Ravens. He's performed tremendously as he's already topped his single season high in rushing yards and TDs with five games left to play.
The Buffalo Bills are thankful that they made a quarterback change. While some teams stubbornly stick with their young, project QBs (Jets, Redskins), the Bills decided to remove the young EJ Manuel and put in the wily veteran Kyle Orton, after Manuel put up back to back duds against the Chargers and Texans in Weeks 3 and 4. They've gone 4-3 since then with their losses coming to the Pats, against KC, and in Miami on a Thursday. They're still in the playoff hunt at the end of November, which is a welcome change for Bills fans.
The Carolina Panthers are thankful that they don't play anymore prime time games. Their three this year were Sunday Night Football against Pittsburgh in Week 3, Thursday Night Football against New Orleans in Week 9, and Monday Night Football in Philly in Week 10. They allowed the Steelers' offense to do whatever they wanted in Week 3, Cam Newton went 10/28 for 151 yards and an interception in Week 9, and then Cam put up an 8.4 QBR in Week 10 and struggled to even stand. Luckily, the rest of their games are at noon so the Panthers' fans suffering can at least be early in the day.
The Chicago Bears are thankful that they don't listen to the fans. Cutler would be gone, Trestman would be back in Canada, and Mike from the butcher shop would be the new coach because he drew up some pretty cool plays at the bar last night. The reality is Cutler is locked in contractually and still gives them their best chance to win. No free agents are as good as Cutler and the Bears don't lose enough to get a high enough draft pick for a good QB. Also remember that this is only Trestman's second year with players that he didn't draft.
The Cincinnati Bengals are thankful that their schedule has been so easy. The only team that they've beaten with a winning record have been the Ravens, twice. On the other hand, the Patriots embarrassed them, they somehow tied the woeful Panthers in Cincinnati, were shut out by the Colts, and were blown out by Cleveland. They're setting themselves up for the same narrative once again. They'll make the playoffs, then be a quick out as they beat the teams they're supposed to and get thrashed by the great teams.
The Cleveland Browns are thankful that Josh Gordon is back. They were 6-4 without him, but Gordon is the key for their offense to go from mediocre to pretty good. They used their improved offense this past weekend to win in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. All roads to the Super Bowl seem to have to go through New England or Denver so they'll need an offensive weapon that can keep up with Brady and Manning. Gordon provides that spark.
The Dallas Cowboys are thankful that they didn't draft Johnny Manziel this past spring. He was there. The high flying Texas A&M phenom staying in state to play for the most prominent team and owner in the NFL. They would've won the offseason, but that's not what this team is trying to do. Instead they took offensive lineman Zack Martin, who has been an important part of Dallas' new found running game. It has put Dallas in a position to make a deep run in the playoffs, while Manziel continues to sit in Cleveland.
The Denver Broncos are thankful that John Elway is their owner. He realizes what his team needs, who is available that can help those needs, and acts without hesitation. Getting Peyton Manning a couple years ago was obviously a huge move, but this past offseason might have been even better. TJ Ward, Demarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib have all made the Denver defense much better than last year, and Emmanuel Sanders has predictably slid right in and outperformed Eric Decker, whom they lost to free agency.
The Detroit Lions are thankful that they don't use the college football ranking system in the NFL. If they did, the Lions would fail the eye test and margin of victory test terribly. Watching the Lions, they just don't look like a good team. They got blown out by the Panthers, lost to the Bills, put up six in a loss to Arizona, and looked like the mid-2000s Lions as they got blown out by the Patriots. Even when they win, they still do head scratching Lion like things.
The Green Bay Packers are thankful that Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. I mean, not much else to say here. He's good.
The Houston Texans are thankful that defensive end JJ Watt is not a real human being. He's got to be some kind of machine, right? He has 9 1/2 sacks, two defensive TDs, two receiving TDs, and is disruptive to a game plan at all times. DeAndre Hopkins is the only Texans' wide receiver with more receiving TDs than Watt. He's a legitimate NFL MVP candidate and would probably win if Brady, Rodgers, and DeMarco Murray weren't having such good years.
The Indianapolis Colts are thankful that Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy this year. Obviously he just got injured a couple weeks ago, and I'm not sure the Colts sit at 7-4 without him. Trent Richardson, contrary to what I thought when they traded for him, just isn't working out in Indy. Enter Bradshaw who has rushed for eight less yards than Richardson, but also has received 37 less carries. He has the fourth most receptions on the team and the second most receiving TDs. It will be interesting to see how this offense does down the stretch without him.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are thankful that they have pieces in place. It might not seem like it because of their 1-10 record, but the Jags are close to becoming a decent team in this league, particularly offensively. Blake Bortles is a rookie doing rookie things, but should improve given his physical traits. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have both shown they can play in this league, though Robinson is done for the year. Denard Robinson has come out of nowhere and has gone from Michigan quarterback to bell cow back for this team. Don't sleep on this team in the near future.
The Kansas City Chiefs are thankful that their receivers are not selfish and/or outspoken. The Chiefs have a meager 13 passing TDs this year. Of those 13, zero have gone to a wide receiver. And they say the NFL has evolved into a passing league. At some point though, they're going to need some explosive plays in the passing game to make a deep run in the playoffs. Sunday Night's game against the Broncos in Arrowhead will be a good test to determine where both teams are.
The Miami Dolphins are thankful that Ryan Tannehill has been unleashed. It sounds funny to say, but Tannehill has actually started to play well now that the training wheels are off. He should shatter his season high for TD passes, he's cut down on his fumbles, and he's already topped his season high for total rushing yards with only 11 games played. The Dolphins sit at 6-5 after a hard fought loss in Denver and have key games against the Ravens in Week 14 and in New England in Week 15.
The Minnesota Vikings are thankful that their team still plays hard? Look, I'm stretching here as the Vikes have very little to be thankful for. They lost their star running back to suspension, Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been as good as advertised, their division is tough, and they have to play their games outside in the freezing cold of Minnesota instead of indoors. They played the Bears and Packers tough their last two games, but came out losers. They seem to at least be trying, but the skill gap is just too great. It will be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson ever wears the purple and gold again.
The New England Patriots are thankful that they just don't care. If Bill Belichick and Jay Cutler ever teamed up, they would be the best non-caring coach/QB combo in NFL history. People, including myself, pretty much wrote off the Patriots after their Week 4 meltdown in Kansas City. People were even calling for Jimmy Garoppolo to start over Tom Brady. Wouldn't you know that since Week 4, the Pats haven't lost a game and have looked like the best team in the NFL. If the demolition continues in Green Bay this weekend, I'm not sure how the Patriots aren't everyone's Super Bowl pick.
The New Orleans Saints are thankful that they have found a running game. Despite their 4-7 record, they're still in first place and can still secure a home playoff game. Without Mark Ingram finally playing like a first round draft pick, they might be in Tampa Bay territory record wise. Ingram has already topped his career rushing yardage and TD totals in only eight games. He was a big reason why the Saints got their first road win in forever this year as they fed him the ball 30 times in Carolina in Week 9. Dropping three straight at home was a head scratcher, but their running game could help them stay afloat in the weak NFC South.
The New York Giants are thankful that they drafted Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham's insane catch will probably be the highlight of the year, surrounded by moments of sadness and dread. Once Victor Cruz went down for the year, the Giants needed someone to make their offense respectable. Beckham filled that role nicely and has shown that he has some of the best hands in the game, even as a rookie. Giants fans might be the most thankful after the season, if Tom Coughlin and/or Eli Manning are run out of town.
The New York Jets are thankful that they have a quarterback controversy. If they didn't, no one would be talking about them this year. Instead, the media enjoys a good back and forth on whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith should be the starting QB. Personally, I think you could have both on the field at the same time, both with live footballs, and they still couldn't move the chains. Vick is past his prime and Geno just isn't good. A top 10 draft pick seems like a certainty for the Jets. Scholars will be forever puzzled how this team beat the Steelers in Week 10.
The Oakland Raiders are thankful that they're not the Jets. People stopped talking about the Raiders months ago and they actually won in their only prime time spot, beating the Chiefs 24-20 for their first and probably only win. People will pretty much forget about them unless they win or do something awesome. That's not the worst situation to be in. Also, they're making a strong push for the number one overall draft pick!
The Philadelphia Eagles are thankful that Chip Kelly's system is so quarterback friendly. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez are names that shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone, let alone NFL teams. Somehow, with those two signal callers, the Eagles are 8-3 with losses in San Fran, Arizona, and Green Bay. Not bad. Because of the pace at which the offense runs and the threat of LeSean McCoy getting the ball, it puts tremendous pressure on the defense and allows quarterbacks to thrive no matter who is back there. Their next three games (at Dallas, vs Seattle, vs Dallas) will tell us a lot about a Mark Sanchez-led offense moving forward, and should decide the NFC East.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are thankful that no one can cover Antonio Brown. Having him for fantasy football makes you realize how much they feed him the ball. Brown has a ridiculous 123 targets with 70 targets for Le'Veon Bell coming in second. He's in the top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards, TDs, and yards after catch. He's a significant reason why Big Ben has had such a good year and why this Steelers passing game is now feared by defenses.
The Saint Louis Rams are thankful that they know what they have with each of their quarterbacks. Sam Bradford just can't stay healthy and will likely be gone from the team either next year or in 2016 when he becomes a free agent. Austin Davis is a replacement level QB at best. Shaun Hill can get the job done, but won't take a team to the next level. The Rams are a fairly good team overall, but have been looking for answers at quarterback since Kurt Warner and have yet to find one. Maybe the 2015 draft will bring them good fortune.
The San Diego Chargers are thankful that they accumulated wins early in the season. Recently, the Chargers have looked bad. Weeks 7-9 saw three straight losses, capped off by a 37-0 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Their past two games have been won by a combined 10 points against the Raiders and Rams. Their upcoming schedule takes them to Baltimore, at home against New England and Denver, then to San Fran, and finishing up in Arrowhead. At 7-4 in the AFC West, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers are thankful that they have played through distractions. Their two most significant distractions were their decision to play Ray McDonald while a domestic violence investigation was ongoing against him, and the rumors that Jim Harbaugh had lost the locker room and was leaving after this year. No charges ended up being filed against McDonald, although at the time, I thought he should not have played simply because it looked bad for the organization. The Harbaugh rumors have died off pretty quickly as they now sit at 7-4 in a division they can still win. Their home and home with Seattle in the next three weeks could eliminate one of them from playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks are thankful that their home field advantage remains one of the best in the NFL. It lost some of its luster when the Broncos drove down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime in Week 3, and when Dallas actually beat the Seahawks in Week 6, but it's still not a pleasant place to play. They just smothered the division leading Arizona Cardinals at home and now get the Niners twice sandwiched around a game in Philly. The Seahawks need a great stretch run to secure at least one home home playoff game to have that thunderous crowd backing them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are thankful that they play in the NFC South. You could really say that about any team in that division, but the Bucs are probably the ones that benefit the most. The glass half empty folks will say that they are losers and are only one game behind Oakland and Jacksonville for the number one overall pick in the draft. The glass half full folks will say that they're an up and coming team that are only two games out of first place in their division. Both are true. Go figure.
The Tennessee Titans are thankful that they drafted Zach Mettenberger. The Titans with Mettenberger are in the same boat as the Giants with his LSU teammate, Beckham. Both have lost seasons, but are at least giving their rookies valuable reps. At LSU, he had all the physical ability but would occasionally make awful decisions. This has carried over into the NFL, but can be fixed with time. He's certainly better than the other two QBs on the roster (Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst) and his sixth round draft selection makes him easy to part ways with if the experiment doesn't work out.
The Washington Redskins are thankful that Robert Griffin III only has one year left on his contract. It just hasn't worked out and the Redskins need to acknowledge that. I'm not sure he'll ever be as dynamic of a runner as he was in his rookie season. I've mentioned on my fantasy football articles that without the threat of his legs, RG3 is no more than an average passer in the NFL. I think his athleticism and skill that he showed his rookie year is what keeps Redskins fans wanting him to turn it around, but I doubt he will for the Redskins, or any other NFL team for that matter.
Matty O
The Arizona Cardinals are thankful that their defense is so good. That's really all they have to hang their hat on entering the playoffs as their offense cannot thrive with Drew Stanton under center. They've scored 17 total points in their past two games with Stanton under center combined. It was against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Seattle and Detroit), but it's not like those kind of defenses won't be there in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are thankful that they play six games against NFC South opponents. They are 4-0 in their division and 0-7 outside of it. They have three outside their division left and two in their division. That would give them a final record of 6-10 if everything keeps going this way. Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC South.
The Baltimore Ravens are thankful that they signed Justin Forsett. Forsett, a journeyman NFL player on his fourth NFL team in six seasons, was buried on the depth chart behind Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. After Rice got suspended and Pierce got hurt, however, it was Forsett who had to pick up the slack for the Ravens. He's performed tremendously as he's already topped his single season high in rushing yards and TDs with five games left to play.
The Buffalo Bills are thankful that they made a quarterback change. While some teams stubbornly stick with their young, project QBs (Jets, Redskins), the Bills decided to remove the young EJ Manuel and put in the wily veteran Kyle Orton, after Manuel put up back to back duds against the Chargers and Texans in Weeks 3 and 4. They've gone 4-3 since then with their losses coming to the Pats, against KC, and in Miami on a Thursday. They're still in the playoff hunt at the end of November, which is a welcome change for Bills fans.
The Carolina Panthers are thankful that they don't play anymore prime time games. Their three this year were Sunday Night Football against Pittsburgh in Week 3, Thursday Night Football against New Orleans in Week 9, and Monday Night Football in Philly in Week 10. They allowed the Steelers' offense to do whatever they wanted in Week 3, Cam Newton went 10/28 for 151 yards and an interception in Week 9, and then Cam put up an 8.4 QBR in Week 10 and struggled to even stand. Luckily, the rest of their games are at noon so the Panthers' fans suffering can at least be early in the day.
The Chicago Bears are thankful that they don't listen to the fans. Cutler would be gone, Trestman would be back in Canada, and Mike from the butcher shop would be the new coach because he drew up some pretty cool plays at the bar last night. The reality is Cutler is locked in contractually and still gives them their best chance to win. No free agents are as good as Cutler and the Bears don't lose enough to get a high enough draft pick for a good QB. Also remember that this is only Trestman's second year with players that he didn't draft.
The Cincinnati Bengals are thankful that their schedule has been so easy. The only team that they've beaten with a winning record have been the Ravens, twice. On the other hand, the Patriots embarrassed them, they somehow tied the woeful Panthers in Cincinnati, were shut out by the Colts, and were blown out by Cleveland. They're setting themselves up for the same narrative once again. They'll make the playoffs, then be a quick out as they beat the teams they're supposed to and get thrashed by the great teams.
The Cleveland Browns are thankful that Josh Gordon is back. They were 6-4 without him, but Gordon is the key for their offense to go from mediocre to pretty good. They used their improved offense this past weekend to win in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. All roads to the Super Bowl seem to have to go through New England or Denver so they'll need an offensive weapon that can keep up with Brady and Manning. Gordon provides that spark.
The Dallas Cowboys are thankful that they didn't draft Johnny Manziel this past spring. He was there. The high flying Texas A&M phenom staying in state to play for the most prominent team and owner in the NFL. They would've won the offseason, but that's not what this team is trying to do. Instead they took offensive lineman Zack Martin, who has been an important part of Dallas' new found running game. It has put Dallas in a position to make a deep run in the playoffs, while Manziel continues to sit in Cleveland.
The Denver Broncos are thankful that John Elway is their owner. He realizes what his team needs, who is available that can help those needs, and acts without hesitation. Getting Peyton Manning a couple years ago was obviously a huge move, but this past offseason might have been even better. TJ Ward, Demarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib have all made the Denver defense much better than last year, and Emmanuel Sanders has predictably slid right in and outperformed Eric Decker, whom they lost to free agency.
The Detroit Lions are thankful that they don't use the college football ranking system in the NFL. If they did, the Lions would fail the eye test and margin of victory test terribly. Watching the Lions, they just don't look like a good team. They got blown out by the Panthers, lost to the Bills, put up six in a loss to Arizona, and looked like the mid-2000s Lions as they got blown out by the Patriots. Even when they win, they still do head scratching Lion like things.
The Green Bay Packers are thankful that Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. I mean, not much else to say here. He's good.
The Houston Texans are thankful that defensive end JJ Watt is not a real human being. He's got to be some kind of machine, right? He has 9 1/2 sacks, two defensive TDs, two receiving TDs, and is disruptive to a game plan at all times. DeAndre Hopkins is the only Texans' wide receiver with more receiving TDs than Watt. He's a legitimate NFL MVP candidate and would probably win if Brady, Rodgers, and DeMarco Murray weren't having such good years.
The Indianapolis Colts are thankful that Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy this year. Obviously he just got injured a couple weeks ago, and I'm not sure the Colts sit at 7-4 without him. Trent Richardson, contrary to what I thought when they traded for him, just isn't working out in Indy. Enter Bradshaw who has rushed for eight less yards than Richardson, but also has received 37 less carries. He has the fourth most receptions on the team and the second most receiving TDs. It will be interesting to see how this offense does down the stretch without him.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are thankful that they have pieces in place. It might not seem like it because of their 1-10 record, but the Jags are close to becoming a decent team in this league, particularly offensively. Blake Bortles is a rookie doing rookie things, but should improve given his physical traits. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have both shown they can play in this league, though Robinson is done for the year. Denard Robinson has come out of nowhere and has gone from Michigan quarterback to bell cow back for this team. Don't sleep on this team in the near future.
The Kansas City Chiefs are thankful that their receivers are not selfish and/or outspoken. The Chiefs have a meager 13 passing TDs this year. Of those 13, zero have gone to a wide receiver. And they say the NFL has evolved into a passing league. At some point though, they're going to need some explosive plays in the passing game to make a deep run in the playoffs. Sunday Night's game against the Broncos in Arrowhead will be a good test to determine where both teams are.
The Miami Dolphins are thankful that Ryan Tannehill has been unleashed. It sounds funny to say, but Tannehill has actually started to play well now that the training wheels are off. He should shatter his season high for TD passes, he's cut down on his fumbles, and he's already topped his season high for total rushing yards with only 11 games played. The Dolphins sit at 6-5 after a hard fought loss in Denver and have key games against the Ravens in Week 14 and in New England in Week 15.
The Minnesota Vikings are thankful that their team still plays hard? Look, I'm stretching here as the Vikes have very little to be thankful for. They lost their star running back to suspension, Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been as good as advertised, their division is tough, and they have to play their games outside in the freezing cold of Minnesota instead of indoors. They played the Bears and Packers tough their last two games, but came out losers. They seem to at least be trying, but the skill gap is just too great. It will be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson ever wears the purple and gold again.
The New England Patriots are thankful that they just don't care. If Bill Belichick and Jay Cutler ever teamed up, they would be the best non-caring coach/QB combo in NFL history. People, including myself, pretty much wrote off the Patriots after their Week 4 meltdown in Kansas City. People were even calling for Jimmy Garoppolo to start over Tom Brady. Wouldn't you know that since Week 4, the Pats haven't lost a game and have looked like the best team in the NFL. If the demolition continues in Green Bay this weekend, I'm not sure how the Patriots aren't everyone's Super Bowl pick.
The New Orleans Saints are thankful that they have found a running game. Despite their 4-7 record, they're still in first place and can still secure a home playoff game. Without Mark Ingram finally playing like a first round draft pick, they might be in Tampa Bay territory record wise. Ingram has already topped his career rushing yardage and TD totals in only eight games. He was a big reason why the Saints got their first road win in forever this year as they fed him the ball 30 times in Carolina in Week 9. Dropping three straight at home was a head scratcher, but their running game could help them stay afloat in the weak NFC South.
The New York Giants are thankful that they drafted Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham's insane catch will probably be the highlight of the year, surrounded by moments of sadness and dread. Once Victor Cruz went down for the year, the Giants needed someone to make their offense respectable. Beckham filled that role nicely and has shown that he has some of the best hands in the game, even as a rookie. Giants fans might be the most thankful after the season, if Tom Coughlin and/or Eli Manning are run out of town.
The New York Jets are thankful that they have a quarterback controversy. If they didn't, no one would be talking about them this year. Instead, the media enjoys a good back and forth on whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith should be the starting QB. Personally, I think you could have both on the field at the same time, both with live footballs, and they still couldn't move the chains. Vick is past his prime and Geno just isn't good. A top 10 draft pick seems like a certainty for the Jets. Scholars will be forever puzzled how this team beat the Steelers in Week 10.
The Oakland Raiders are thankful that they're not the Jets. People stopped talking about the Raiders months ago and they actually won in their only prime time spot, beating the Chiefs 24-20 for their first and probably only win. People will pretty much forget about them unless they win or do something awesome. That's not the worst situation to be in. Also, they're making a strong push for the number one overall draft pick!
The Philadelphia Eagles are thankful that Chip Kelly's system is so quarterback friendly. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez are names that shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone, let alone NFL teams. Somehow, with those two signal callers, the Eagles are 8-3 with losses in San Fran, Arizona, and Green Bay. Not bad. Because of the pace at which the offense runs and the threat of LeSean McCoy getting the ball, it puts tremendous pressure on the defense and allows quarterbacks to thrive no matter who is back there. Their next three games (at Dallas, vs Seattle, vs Dallas) will tell us a lot about a Mark Sanchez-led offense moving forward, and should decide the NFC East.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are thankful that no one can cover Antonio Brown. Having him for fantasy football makes you realize how much they feed him the ball. Brown has a ridiculous 123 targets with 70 targets for Le'Veon Bell coming in second. He's in the top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards, TDs, and yards after catch. He's a significant reason why Big Ben has had such a good year and why this Steelers passing game is now feared by defenses.
The Saint Louis Rams are thankful that they know what they have with each of their quarterbacks. Sam Bradford just can't stay healthy and will likely be gone from the team either next year or in 2016 when he becomes a free agent. Austin Davis is a replacement level QB at best. Shaun Hill can get the job done, but won't take a team to the next level. The Rams are a fairly good team overall, but have been looking for answers at quarterback since Kurt Warner and have yet to find one. Maybe the 2015 draft will bring them good fortune.
The San Diego Chargers are thankful that they accumulated wins early in the season. Recently, the Chargers have looked bad. Weeks 7-9 saw three straight losses, capped off by a 37-0 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Their past two games have been won by a combined 10 points against the Raiders and Rams. Their upcoming schedule takes them to Baltimore, at home against New England and Denver, then to San Fran, and finishing up in Arrowhead. At 7-4 in the AFC West, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers are thankful that they have played through distractions. Their two most significant distractions were their decision to play Ray McDonald while a domestic violence investigation was ongoing against him, and the rumors that Jim Harbaugh had lost the locker room and was leaving after this year. No charges ended up being filed against McDonald, although at the time, I thought he should not have played simply because it looked bad for the organization. The Harbaugh rumors have died off pretty quickly as they now sit at 7-4 in a division they can still win. Their home and home with Seattle in the next three weeks could eliminate one of them from playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks are thankful that their home field advantage remains one of the best in the NFL. It lost some of its luster when the Broncos drove down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime in Week 3, and when Dallas actually beat the Seahawks in Week 6, but it's still not a pleasant place to play. They just smothered the division leading Arizona Cardinals at home and now get the Niners twice sandwiched around a game in Philly. The Seahawks need a great stretch run to secure at least one home home playoff game to have that thunderous crowd backing them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are thankful that they play in the NFC South. You could really say that about any team in that division, but the Bucs are probably the ones that benefit the most. The glass half empty folks will say that they are losers and are only one game behind Oakland and Jacksonville for the number one overall pick in the draft. The glass half full folks will say that they're an up and coming team that are only two games out of first place in their division. Both are true. Go figure.
The Tennessee Titans are thankful that they drafted Zach Mettenberger. The Titans with Mettenberger are in the same boat as the Giants with his LSU teammate, Beckham. Both have lost seasons, but are at least giving their rookies valuable reps. At LSU, he had all the physical ability but would occasionally make awful decisions. This has carried over into the NFL, but can be fixed with time. He's certainly better than the other two QBs on the roster (Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst) and his sixth round draft selection makes him easy to part ways with if the experiment doesn't work out.
The Washington Redskins are thankful that Robert Griffin III only has one year left on his contract. It just hasn't worked out and the Redskins need to acknowledge that. I'm not sure he'll ever be as dynamic of a runner as he was in his rookie season. I've mentioned on my fantasy football articles that without the threat of his legs, RG3 is no more than an average passer in the NFL. I think his athleticism and skill that he showed his rookie year is what keeps Redskins fans wanting him to turn it around, but I doubt he will for the Redskins, or any other NFL team for that matter.
Matty O
Friday, November 14, 2014
When Does Injury Outweigh Potential?
What is Derrick Rose's lower body made of? Whether it's ankles, knees, and last night a hamstring, it seems that anytime he plays, he gets hurt. What's even more concerning is his style of play and the aggression he plays with. He goes 100% all the time, which is what makes him such a great player and gives Bulls' fans heart attacks whenever he drives the lane. The question now becomes whether the injury plagued Rose is really the franchise player that the Bulls had imagined.
When he's fully healthy, he's arguably the best point guard in the league. He's at least in the top three with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, you can't turn injuries off like in a video game. His first three seasons went by without any notable injuries. Notable awards collected during that time were Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a couple All-Star games. Then came the 2011-12 season. He had toe, groin, and back injuries, but those were pretty minor. They caused him to miss time in the regular season, but the Bulls still finished four games ahead of the Miami Big 3 for the number one seed in the East. The general belief was the Bulls would advance to the Conference Finals and meet up with the winner of the Pacers-Heat series in the second round.
Then came the infamous ACL injury in the first game against the Sixers. The Bulls were far and away the better team on paper, but I think the loss of Rose rattled them the rest of the series as they lost 4-2 to the eighth seeded Sixers. Still, this didn't and shouldn't have deterred any Rose or Bulls supporters. Major injuries happen, but the core of the Bulls was still intact, Rose had a full offseason to heal, and they were going to come back bigger and badder than ever the next season. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, he missed the entire 2012-13 season, only to come back during the 2013-14 campaign and tear his meniscus. This is when people really started to become concerned. He would now have missed the better part of three seasons with injury problems and hadn't played in a playoff game since the spring of 2012. In the meantime, the Bulls had gone through a revolving door of point guards who, to their credit, played admirably, but not well enough to get them to the NBA Finals. This season when Rose is on the floor, you can almost feel the anxiety of everyone in the stands. Anytime he takes a step, you quietly wonder if this is it. Is this when the injury returns?
With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the Bulls' front office handles the next couple of off-seasons. On the one hand, you have a former MVP and a guy who could point guard a championship team...when he's healthy. On the other hand, you have a walking injury risk who is as likely to put up 25 points in one night as he is to miss 25 nights with one injury. He's signed through the 2016-17 season, which is when a serious decision will have to be made. Is it worth it to keep Derrick Rose?
The main appeal with Rose, apart from his play on the court, was that he was the hometown kid. He played high school ball at Simeon, unfortunately left for Memphis (could have used him down in Champaign for a year), then was drafted by the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of getting the number one overall pick. This seemed like the pick of destiny, just without Tenacious D. The excitement that was there early on, however, has seemed to wane. A lot of fans were turned off by comments made this past week about how he thinks about life after basketball, though I thought that got blown out of proportion. That was more a case of Rose not saying what he said how he should have said it. He's not getting paid to talk, he's getting paid to play and that really came out in those comments.
Without strong local support for Rose, what is keeping management from allowing him to walk in a couple years? Prior to this season, the city of Chicago essentially forgave him for sitting out an entire season. If the Bulls had acquired Russell Westbrook, a similar player but with no local ties, would the leash have been as long? I would argue no. So now, from a purely business perspective, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep him.
You can certainly adjust contracts, particularly with guaranteed money and incentives (like games played/started), to make life easier on you financially. The problem is that players are less likely to take those kind of contracts, particularly with Rose who will still be under 30 years old when his contract is up. There's also the fact that you miss out on any superstar point guard that would be coming out of the draft as long as you have Rose. This is why the Colts made such a great decision with the whole Peyton Manning situation. They could have kept him coming off neck surgery and he probably still could have given them four or five more years of quality QB play. Just look at what he's doing in Denver. By re-signing Manning, however, they would also be passing on Andrew Luck.
While there are no guarantees, Luck looked like the best QB prospect to come out of college in a while. Luck could have doubled or even tripled the amount of good years he could give the Colts over how long Peyton could give them. I don't follow high school basketball that much, but there's a decent chance that an attractive one-and-done point guard option will be available in the next couple of years. So do you take that guy who could give you double digit seasons of production, or sign Rose to a three or four year deal where he gives you spectacular nights along with stretches of injured time away from the court? Obviously it will depend on what the coming draft classes look like, but I would argue for taking the young gun over re-signing Rose.
A philosophy that I have in fantasy football is that bench points don't count. Actually, that's not a philosophy, that's a fact. It doesn't matter if Tom Brady throws for 700 yards and Calvin Johnson catches 8 TD passes if they're on your bench. It doesn't count, those stats don't matter. While Rose can't score from the bench in real life, he can continue to collect money that could be going to someone that will actually play. He might have been a former MVP and he might be able to average over 20 points per game, but, like fantasy football bench stats, those things don't matter if you're in the trainer's room.
This year is critical for Rose's future in Chicago. He needs to prove that his health won't be a concern going forward, even though he's already had a couple scares this year. The Bulls will make the playoffs, with or without him, but the playoffs are where he needs to shine. If he can lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs, maybe with a berth in the NBA Finals, I believe he will be forgiven once again. Heck, if he wins the NBA Finals I know he will be forgiven and he could retire that day and go to all the graduations he wants to. Pain free! If not, he might be exiled by the fans that once embraced him as the Bulls continue to try and find the next Jordan.
Matty O
When he's fully healthy, he's arguably the best point guard in the league. He's at least in the top three with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, you can't turn injuries off like in a video game. His first three seasons went by without any notable injuries. Notable awards collected during that time were Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a couple All-Star games. Then came the 2011-12 season. He had toe, groin, and back injuries, but those were pretty minor. They caused him to miss time in the regular season, but the Bulls still finished four games ahead of the Miami Big 3 for the number one seed in the East. The general belief was the Bulls would advance to the Conference Finals and meet up with the winner of the Pacers-Heat series in the second round.
Then came the infamous ACL injury in the first game against the Sixers. The Bulls were far and away the better team on paper, but I think the loss of Rose rattled them the rest of the series as they lost 4-2 to the eighth seeded Sixers. Still, this didn't and shouldn't have deterred any Rose or Bulls supporters. Major injuries happen, but the core of the Bulls was still intact, Rose had a full offseason to heal, and they were going to come back bigger and badder than ever the next season. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, he missed the entire 2012-13 season, only to come back during the 2013-14 campaign and tear his meniscus. This is when people really started to become concerned. He would now have missed the better part of three seasons with injury problems and hadn't played in a playoff game since the spring of 2012. In the meantime, the Bulls had gone through a revolving door of point guards who, to their credit, played admirably, but not well enough to get them to the NBA Finals. This season when Rose is on the floor, you can almost feel the anxiety of everyone in the stands. Anytime he takes a step, you quietly wonder if this is it. Is this when the injury returns?
With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the Bulls' front office handles the next couple of off-seasons. On the one hand, you have a former MVP and a guy who could point guard a championship team...when he's healthy. On the other hand, you have a walking injury risk who is as likely to put up 25 points in one night as he is to miss 25 nights with one injury. He's signed through the 2016-17 season, which is when a serious decision will have to be made. Is it worth it to keep Derrick Rose?
The main appeal with Rose, apart from his play on the court, was that he was the hometown kid. He played high school ball at Simeon, unfortunately left for Memphis (could have used him down in Champaign for a year), then was drafted by the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of getting the number one overall pick. This seemed like the pick of destiny, just without Tenacious D. The excitement that was there early on, however, has seemed to wane. A lot of fans were turned off by comments made this past week about how he thinks about life after basketball, though I thought that got blown out of proportion. That was more a case of Rose not saying what he said how he should have said it. He's not getting paid to talk, he's getting paid to play and that really came out in those comments.
Without strong local support for Rose, what is keeping management from allowing him to walk in a couple years? Prior to this season, the city of Chicago essentially forgave him for sitting out an entire season. If the Bulls had acquired Russell Westbrook, a similar player but with no local ties, would the leash have been as long? I would argue no. So now, from a purely business perspective, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep him.
You can certainly adjust contracts, particularly with guaranteed money and incentives (like games played/started), to make life easier on you financially. The problem is that players are less likely to take those kind of contracts, particularly with Rose who will still be under 30 years old when his contract is up. There's also the fact that you miss out on any superstar point guard that would be coming out of the draft as long as you have Rose. This is why the Colts made such a great decision with the whole Peyton Manning situation. They could have kept him coming off neck surgery and he probably still could have given them four or five more years of quality QB play. Just look at what he's doing in Denver. By re-signing Manning, however, they would also be passing on Andrew Luck.
While there are no guarantees, Luck looked like the best QB prospect to come out of college in a while. Luck could have doubled or even tripled the amount of good years he could give the Colts over how long Peyton could give them. I don't follow high school basketball that much, but there's a decent chance that an attractive one-and-done point guard option will be available in the next couple of years. So do you take that guy who could give you double digit seasons of production, or sign Rose to a three or four year deal where he gives you spectacular nights along with stretches of injured time away from the court? Obviously it will depend on what the coming draft classes look like, but I would argue for taking the young gun over re-signing Rose.
A philosophy that I have in fantasy football is that bench points don't count. Actually, that's not a philosophy, that's a fact. It doesn't matter if Tom Brady throws for 700 yards and Calvin Johnson catches 8 TD passes if they're on your bench. It doesn't count, those stats don't matter. While Rose can't score from the bench in real life, he can continue to collect money that could be going to someone that will actually play. He might have been a former MVP and he might be able to average over 20 points per game, but, like fantasy football bench stats, those things don't matter if you're in the trainer's room.
This year is critical for Rose's future in Chicago. He needs to prove that his health won't be a concern going forward, even though he's already had a couple scares this year. The Bulls will make the playoffs, with or without him, but the playoffs are where he needs to shine. If he can lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs, maybe with a berth in the NBA Finals, I believe he will be forgiven once again. Heck, if he wins the NBA Finals I know he will be forgiven and he could retire that day and go to all the graduations he wants to. Pain free! If not, he might be exiled by the fans that once embraced him as the Bulls continue to try and find the next Jordan.
Matty O
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Fantasy Football: The Stretch Run
With a lot of league's playoffs starting in either Week 14 or Week 15, it's getting to be crunch time for a lot of fantasy teams. Whether you are on the cusp of getting into your playoffs or at the top, trying to secure a high seed and/or bye, you'll need to set yourself up for success. Weather, matchups, and injuries can all change the value of a player down the stretch, regardless of what they've done up to this point. This article will help you decide which players look favorable down the stretch and what to keep an eye out for.
Weather
Checking the weather before setting your lineups in the upcoming weeks isn't the worst idea in the world. Wind, rain, snow, and sleet are all headed to a lot of stadiums near you. The severity of it could effect your lineup decisions. A slight drizzle might not deter you, but blizzard conditions like in the Eagles-Lions game last year should. In that game there were eight touchdowns scored. Guess how many points both kickers had combined? Yep, zero. One extra point was attempted, only to be missed. That's how bad conditions were. Nick Foles threw for a whopping 179 yards with one TD and one pick. Not to be outdone, Matthew Stafford threw for 151 yards with zero TDs and zero picks.
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
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