Houston Texans
Studs: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Hopkins is now in the same situation that Andre Johnson was for years and years, as he is now the only reliable option in the passing game, but has to catch balls from average to below average QBs. After a decent, but inconsistent rookie season in 2013, Hopkins became a solid fantasy starter in 2014 by putting up 1,210 yards and six TDs. He even outperformed fellow teammate Andre Johnson in yards and TDs. Johnson is now in Indy and his 147 targets in 2014 are up for grabs. Hopkins received 127 targets on his own last season with Johnson around, so expect Hopkins' target number to reach around 150. Hopkins is fast, strong, and can make plays on poorly thrown balls. From a fantasy perspective, owners should hope that Ryan Mallet wins the starting QB job as he has the better arm, but I think Hopkins will be successful regardless of who is under center.
Any discussions regarding this defensive unit begin and end with JJ Watt. Watt was a nominee for NFL MVP last season and is certainly the best defensive player in the NFL. He pressures QBs, gets sacks, knocks down balls, forces turnovers, and scores TDs. The Texans also added Vince Wilfork to go along with Watt on the defensive line, and Jadeveon Clowney appears as though he might return sometime this season, though his usage is unknown. Houston also decided to beef up their defense through the draft as they spent their first round pick on CB Kevin Johnson and their second round pick on LB Benardrick McKinney. This unit finished 4th in fantasy D/ST scoring last season and is locked in as a top 10 unit, particularly playing in the same division as a first and second year QB (they even had 22 combined fantasy points in two games against Andrew Luck last year).
Bust: Alfred Blue, RB
Blue was one of the more valuable handcuffs last season as Arian Foster has consistently struggled with injuries. The problem is that even though Blue got the first crack at carries when Foster went down, Blue did not excel when given his chances. In 2014, Foster missed Weeks 3, 11, and 12. In those three games, Blue totaled zero TDs and, although he had a 156 yard game, he needed 36 carries to get those yards. Blue will probably be the first healthy Texans' RB off the board, but I'm not so sure he is the one to own.
Sleeper: Chris Polk, RB
The Texans' backfield is full of unproven backs behind Foster, so why not take the guy who at least finds the end zone? While playing behind LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles in Philadelphia, Polk still managed to steal goal line looks, particularly towards the end of 2014. From Week 9 to the end of the season, Polk scored four rushing TDs on only 43 carries. McCoy, in that same time period, scored four rushing TDs on 177 carries. Polk's prowess between the 20s is unknown as he has only gotten 57 carries in two seasons with the Eagles, but Chip Kelly clearly trusted him in the red zone even with McCoy there. Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes are no LeSean McCoy so there's a good chance Polk finds the end zone multiple times this season. He might even continue to see goal line looks when/if Arian Foster is healthy. He'll probably go undrafted, but could rack up the most fantasy points while Foster is injured.
Bottom Line
If this team had a decent QB, they would be considered one of the more dangerous teams in the league. They have a solid offensive line, decent WR depth with the drafting of Jaelen Strong and signing Cecil Shorts, and one of the best defenses in the league. We already know what Brian Hoyer can bring to the table, but maybe Ryan Mallet finally lives up to expectations and becomes a good QB. If so, this is a team that could make the loaded Indianapolis Colts nervous as they battle for the AFC South crown.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, TY Hilton, WR, Andre Johnson, WR, Frank Gore, RB, Adam Vinatieri, K
Luck is quite clearly one of the two best fantasy QBs for 2015, and you could argue that he should be taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers. The Colts' offense was already a juggernaut in 2014, so of course they go out and get Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and draft WR Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Luck will have no shortage of weapons to throw to, and should have plenty of opportunities to get fantasy points after attempting 616 passes last season. If he can keep his interceptions down, he has a real shot to be the overall fantasy MVP.
Hilton is one of the few non-new Colts to be featured in this offense. Once Reggie Wayne started to fade last season, Hilton took over and proved that he could be the next great Colt WR, following in Marvin Harrison and Wayne's footsteps. Hilton doesn't possess the size of Harrison or Wayne, but he does have wheels that neither of them had. Hilton received 130 targets in 2014, despite missing the final two games of the regular season. His inconsistency will sometimes frustrate you, though he has gotten better about stringing together solid performances. His red zone looks will be limited with Dwayne Allen and Johnson around, but he should be fine in regards to receptions and deep balls. Hilton is a safe WR2, possible WR1.
#FreeAndre. It actually looked like Johnson was going to another team last year, as he tried to force the Texans to trade him prior to the 2014 season, as he did not want to be part of another rebuilding project at the end of his career. Instead, the Texans stood firm and Johnson played out the 2014 season with more terrible QB play. Johnson still managed 85 receptions, but failed to top 1,000 yards and only hauled in three TDs. Now on a Super Bowl contending team with an elite QB, Johnson should find new fantasy life in Indy. While he may have lost some of his speed, his size still makes him a dangerous red zone threat and he should get plenty of work in between the 20s as well. I doubt he sees the 147 targets he saw last season, but the yards and certainly the TDs should go up.
While Frank Gore wasn't in as bad of a situation as Johnson, his new situation with the Colts is much better than the one in San Francisco. Gore would constantly be facing packed boxes in San Francisco as it was no secret the Niners liked to pound the ball, and Colin Kaepernick is a much poorer thrower of the football than Andrew Luck. The only downside I see here is that Gore did have a much better offensive line in San Fran, though I think facing defenses that have to worry about Luck's passes should offset that to some degree. Like Johnson, Gore is getting up there in age (32), but has played in all 16 games the last four seasons. His age and Dan Herron's pass catching success in 2014 might cause Gore to only be a two down player, but I still think he surpasses 1,000 yards and is a good bet for double digit TDs.
Yes, I put a kicker in the Stud category, but for good reason. In 2014, Vinatieri only missed one kick the entire season (30/31 on FG, 50/50 on PAT) in Week 17. He plays his home games in a dome and is in the same division as the Texans (retractable roof), Jaguars (Jacksonville weather), and the Titans (Tennessee weather). The Colts also get to go to Atlanta (dome) and sunny Miami late in the year. The Colt offense has the potential to be even better this season, giving Vinatieri even more chances to put up points. He's locked in as a top 3 kicker.
Bust: None
I see this offense being similar to the Denver Broncos in 2013, being able to support three WRs, a TE, and feature RB. This should be a near unstoppable force in 2015.
Sleeper: Dwayne Allen, TE
Allen is given a low draft position because he struggles to stay healthy, plays on a team with another regularly used TE in Coby Fleener, and doesn't rack up a lot of yardage or receptions. One thing he does well, however, is score TDs. Despite a very pedestrian 395 yards, Allen still hauled in eight TD receptions, vaulting him to 13th among all TEs last season in fantasy points. Allen is very TD dependent, but most TEs are late in the draft and he does it the best. He might burn you if he doesn't find the end zone, but will easily outperform his ranking when he does. His value would rise if anything were to happen to Fleener.
Bottom Line
The transition from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck has gone very smoothly as the Colts continue to dominate the mediocre AFC South. Their offense should be even better than last year's version, though their run defense will need to improve before they can hope to make it to the Super Bowl. They might finish with the best regular season record in the NFL this season, but I think they come up short of a Super Bowl appearance once again.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Stud: None
Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas are considerations for this category, but Robinson couldn't stay healthy last season and Thomas is going from the penthouse with Peyton Manning to the projects with Blake Bortles. His draft stock has predictably tumbled.
Bust: TJ Yeldon, RB
I was actually high on Yeldon early in the off season, but have cooled off on him since then. While he may have been the feature back at Alabama, he never finished higher than third in rushing yards in the SEC, 4th in TDs in the SEC, and 4th in plays from scrimmage in the SEC. He did carry an impressive yards per carry average (6.3 in 2012, 6.0 in 2013, 5.0 in 2014), but that is sure to go down as he switches from running behind Alabama's line to running behind the Jags' line. The good news for Yeldon is he has little competition and is at least competent in the pass game, but I think the offensive line and QB struggles will cap whatever upside Yeldon has. He could turn out to be a serviceable RB based solely on volume, but I think he gets held back by the team he is on.
Sleeper: Allen Robinson, WR
While Robinson did suffer a season ending foot injury in the middle of last season and is only in his second year as a pro, he is also arguably the most reliable pass catcher on this roster. Robinson was expected to be eased into the offense last year, but due to Cecil Shorts and Marquise Lee struggling with injuries, Robinson was relied on to be a source of offense. He responded by having a very steady nine game stretch from Weeks 2-10, topping 60+ yards six times, hauling in 47 passes, and scoring two TDs. Those numbers wouldn't look impressive with the Packers or Steelers, but those are above average for this Jags team who had a rookie QB in 2014. Robinson will open the season as the Jags' number one WR, and hopefully he will benefit from Blake Bortles' progression from his rookie year to his sophomore year. Robinson could be a low end WR2, but will probably wind up as a solid WR3/FLEX.
Bottom Line
The Jags won't surpass the Colts or Texans, but they are definitely getting better. Their real life and fantasy success rests on the shoulders of Blake Bortles and whether or not he can make strides in his second year. This defense will be better, hopefully putting this team and Bortles in better spots where they don't simply have to play catch up. Julius Thomas might be a recognizable name, but he struggled with injuries in Denver and got most of his value from back to back 12 TD seasons. I think five scores is more likely in this offense, and that's if he stays healthy.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Delanie Walker, TE
After years of being stuck behind Vernon Davis in San Francisco, Walker came over to the Titans in 2013 and finished 12th among TEs that season and 9th among TEs in 2014 in terms of fantasy scoring. He is sort of in the Jason Witten mold in that he's not going to burn you or do anything spectacular, but he's a good route runner and always seems to make himself available for his QB. He put up 63 receptions, almost 900 yards, and four TDs on a Titans' team that was near the bottom in every offensive statistical category last season. Whether or not you think Marcus Mariota is the answer at QB for the Titans, I don't think he is a drop off at all from Zach Mettenberger or Charlie Whitehurst. Walker's situation hasn't gotten better, but it hasn't gotten worse, so I think you can expect similar numbers from last season. He's a sneaky bet to finish in the top 10 for fantasy TEs, despite playing on a below average offense.
Bust: Bishop Sankey, RB
I'll admit that I was one of the guys that was drinking the Sankey Kool-Aid before the start of last season. Sankey got glowing remarks coming out of college and was in line to be the featured back in this Tennessee offense. While he did turn out to be the feature back, he put up very poor statistics to back that up. His highest yardage total in any game last season was 61 against the Jags and Bengals, and he only managed to score two rushing TDs all year. He got double digit carries in eight contests last season, and still finished with only 569 yards and a 3.7 yards per carry average. Sankey may be the starting RB for the Titans by default, but his leash will be much shorter with rookie fifth round pick David Cobb around. If Sankey continues to struggle, it would surprise no one if he becomes part of a committee with Cobb sometime this season.
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, QB
Like any highly drafted QB that comes into the league, there will be those that believe in him and those that think he will be a bust. It's not that I believe Mariota will be a great overall QB that makes me put him in the Sleeper category, but rather that I think he has all the tools needed to be a good fantasy QB. The knock against Mariota is that people don't think he can throw in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes, based on how low his draft position is, I really don't care. All I care about is that he can absolutely fly if he finds space to run. Since rushing yards count for more points than passing yards in fantasy and rushing TDs count for more than passing TDs (in some leagues), then his legs should help to keep his fantasy floor high, even if his ceiling is capped. Another thing to keep in mind is that people knock Mariota because his receivers were wide open at Oregon, but they were often times wide open because defense had to account for Mariota's scrambling and play making ability. While defenses in the NFL might be bigger and faster, they will still need to account for Mariota's speed when he gets outside the pocket, which should open up passing lanes and make life easier for Marcus. Not everyone is going to see eye to eye when it comes to Martiota, but given his low draft stock, elite speed, and better-than-perceived arm, I think he provides some kind of fantasy value this season, particularly as the season wears on.
Bottom Line
Despite rumors of a Phillip Rivers to Tennessee trade prior to the draft, the Titans decided to go all-in on Marcus Mariota and took him second overall. It will be interesting to see if head coach Ken Whisenhunt tries to force Mariota to run his offense, or puts in some of the spread, up-tempo kind of plays that Mariota ran at Oregon. The WR situation is up in the air, though Kendall Wright might be able to return some value in PPR leagues. Brian Orakpo was a nice pick up through free agency, but their defense is still one of the worst in the league. Unless Mariota has an RG3 type rookie season, expect this team to finish under 500, and possibly last in the division.
Matty O
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Sunday, August 16, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Justin Forsett, RB, Steve Smith, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Forsett, already on his fourth NFL team prior to turning 30, paid dividends last year as he took advantage of off field (Ray Rice) and on field (Bernard Pierce) RB problems to become the Ravens' number one RB. From Week 6 to the end of the season, he only had one game where he saw single digit carries, and he had four games of 20+ carries. While some experts think this was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come, I still think he will excel in 2015. With Ray Rice officially out of the picture, his only competition is Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen. The Ravens also added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator, who gave Matt Forte 266 carries and 130 targets in the passing game last season. Forsett was already a capable pass catcher (44 receptions in 2014) and should flirt with the 70-90 range with Trestman calling the shots. I'm high on Forsett this season, and think he finishes as a top 10 PPR back, and top 20 standard league back.
Even at age 36, I'm still listing Smith as a Stud for a few reasons. For starters, he had a rather productive year in 2014, topping 1,000 yards, while hauling in 79 receptions and six TDs. He did struggle down the stretch, but so did the Ravens' passing game as a whole. Similar to Forsett, he has little to no competition for targets behind him as Torrey Smith is now in San Francisco and rookie Breshad Perriman has been struggling with injuries all of training camp. He and Joe Flacco have had a year to establish chemistry together, and I expect that to continue in 2015. Smith already announced that 2015 will be his last season and I have no doubt that he will be motivated to make it a memorable one. A motivated Steve Smith is a scary thing.
This D/ST unit tied for sixth among fantasy defenses last season, never had a zero or negative fantasy point game, and did all this despite scoring only three D/ST TDs. Their run defense was once again stout, but they struggled to stop the pass, finishing in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. The good news is their pass defense woes of 2014 were likely to due to injuries piling up, allowing some of the guys lower on the depth chart to get some playing time and experience. They are healthier to start the year and should improve upon their 23rd ranked pass defense. This will always be one of the most feared defenses in the NFL, and is one of the safer defenses to pick for fantasy purposes.
Bust: None
I suppose Perriman could go here, but I'd have to wait until he gets healthy. His draft stock is slowly falling, even though he should make some noise once he actually gets on the field. Everyone else in the Stud category seems pretty safe where they are ranked.
Sleeper: Maxx Williams, TE
Although rookie TEs traditionally struggle in their transition from college to the NFL, Williams has at least landed in a lucrative situation. Starting Ravens TE Dennis Pitta is still recovering from injury and is likely to start the year on injured reserve, with some people thinking he might miss all of 2015. That leaves unimposing Crockett Gillmore as the only competition for TE targets. Williams, selected in the second round of this year's draft, has a big body (6'4" 254 lbs.) and is sure to be a red zone target for Flacco throughout the season. The yards might not be there, but once you get past the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, you're really looking for red zone looks and TDs at the TE position, which is what Williams will offer. Williams may be slow out of the gates, but I think he becomes a fantasy starter by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be your typical Ravens team; run the ball, control the clock, and rely on a fierce defense to win you games. While the depth may be lacking, I think whoever the starters are will be successful, seeing as how the Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. With a defense that should be improved now that they are healthy, the Ravens are my pick to come out of the AFC this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: Jeremy Hill, RB, AJ Green, WR
Hill was the reason why Giovanni Bernard was in my Bust category last season. Taken in the second round, Hill predictably got a lot of the between the tackles work out of the backfield, as Bernard is not built to take that kind of repetitive beating. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson eased Hill into the NFL to start the season before unleashing him in Week 9. From then on, Hill got 12+ carries all but once and registered five 100+ yard games. The coaching staff showed plenty of trust in him as Hill became the feature back, while Bernard was relegated to third and passing down situations. His successful end of 2014 has seen Hill's draft stock rise to the late first, early second round in 2015.
For the first time in his NFL career, Green battled injuries throughout the season, struggling to appear in only 13 games. Despite his nicks and bruises, Green still topped 1,000 yards receiving and saw triple digit targets, though his six TDs were the lowest of his career. Healthy to start 2015, expect Green to go back to catching 90+ balls and scoring double digit TDs. He is the best WR on this team by a mile and commands Andy Dalton's passes whenever he is on the field. Green is a safe bet to bounce back in 2015.
Bust: Hill, RB
What happens so often in fantasy football is that one awesome season by a player will cause his draft stock the following season to rise to unreasonable heights. This is what has happened to Hill. He's still a good back and certainly a viable starter, but I think the hype has gone too far. He's still only a two down back, and Bernard got a fair amount of touches in the running and passing game even after Hill established himself as a workhorse back. There are backs you can find later in the draft (Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris) that have a similar narrative of only being a two down, yet effective back. Hill is being drafted as a RB1, but I think he slips into mid-RB2 territory as the season progresses.
Sleeper: Tyler Eifert, TE
If Eifert had proven he could be an elite TE in the NFL, his stock would be through the roof. Unfortunately, he played second fiddle to Jermaine Gresham in 2013, then missed pretty much all of 2014 with an elbow injury. He has recovered well from that injury and slides into a TE position vacated by Gresham, who is now in the desert in Arizona. This is Eifert's first chance since being drafted in the first round in 2013 to be the undisputed number one TE in Cincinnati, and prove that he was worth taking in the first round. He's still a boom or bust option due to Cincy's run first mentality and Eifert's absent NFL track record, but he won't cost you anything and could finish as a top eight TE.
Bottom Line
The fantasy success of the Bengals lies with Green and Hill, while the real life success of the Bengals hinges on Andy Dalton delivering in the playoffs. This defense didn't get markedly better and should remain in the bottom half of the league, putting even more pressure on this offense to perform. Giovanni Bernard is a sneaky PPR pickup as he has been kind of forgotten in the Hill hoopla.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
If there is one on this roster, me and every other fantasy football analyzer would love to know where he's hiding.
Bust: Isiah Crowell, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because none of them are going that high, but the Crow should be the first Brown off the board. Crowell was part of one of the most frustrating RB committees last season as he, Ben Tate, and Terrance West seemed to get RB starts at random. The Browns' coaching staff seemed to go with an in-game hot hand approach, so sometimes the starter wouldn't even wind up with the most yards or touches. The Browns seem set in refusing to name a true bell cow back, despite Crow being built for that kind of workload, and even drafted Duke Johnson this year just to frustrate fantasy owners even more. I would stay far away from this backfield unless someone goes down with a serious injury.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
You have to dig deep to find some sleepers on this roster. Hawkins made my Sleeper section last year for basically the same reasons; there is almost no competition for targets and he at least puts up reception numbers, though the yards and TDs will certainly be lacking. New addition Dwayne Bowe might be the starter on the outside, but while playing in the slot, Hawkins still wound up with more receptions, yards, and TDs than Bowe in 2014. Hawkins likely won't provide anything more than PPR WR depth and/or a bye week fill in, but he is probably the safest option in the wasteland that is the Cleveland Browns offense.
Bottom Line
This is arguably the worst team from a fantasy perspective in the NFL. Josh McCown is somehow their starter, while Johnny Manziel looked laughable as a NFL QB last season. Their backfield is once again shaping up as a frustrating committee and their WRs will struggle to finish in the top 40 for fantasy. A high draft pick is looking likely once again for this team next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB, Antonio Brown, WR
It has been pretty incredible to see the Steelers transform from a ground and pound conservative offense to a high flying, high scoring one. Big Ben has transformed from a back end QB in fantasy to a legitimate elite starter. He's been helped by offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system as well as the Steelers' front office surrounding him with elite talent. Bell is a versitile RB, Antonio Brown is one of the best WRs in the league, Heath Miller is a reliable safety blanket, and the young trio of Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and rookie Sammie Coates provide plenty of depth at the WR position. Expect lots of attempts, yards, and TDs from Big Ben this season. He has huge upside.
The only bad thing I can say about Bell is that he is suspended for the first two games of the season. When his suspension is up, regardless of how well DeAngelo Williams plays, Bell will take over his role as an every down back. Bell showed his versatility last year by tallying 1361 rushing yards, 854 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs, establishing himself as one of fantasy football's most coveted assets. With playmakers on the outside, Bell faces soft boxes when he is called upon to run and is a mismatch for most linebackers when he comes out of the backfield. From Week 3 to the end of the season, Bell will be a top three RB.
You could make the argument that Brown should be taken first overall in a PPR draft. He got a ridiculous 182 targets from Big Ben last season and caught 129 of them. He came up two yards short of 1700 receiving yards and scored 13 receiving TDs, both of which should be sustainable in 2015. Big Ben looks for him as the first option, and Brown is also the guy who usually makes plays when Ben is scrambling around, shedding potential tacklers. The Steelers have a stable of young WRs behind Brown, but I don't see them taking a significant chunk of production away from Brown. Expect Brown to finish as the top WR in PPR and possibly standard leagues as well.
Bust: None
Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the only three Steelers that will be taken high, while the rest of them will be late round fliers. No bust to be seen here.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The Steelers and the fantasy football community have been waiting for Wheaton to break out for the past two seasons. Wheaton is a burner that can play in the slot or on the outside, and is the second most versatile WR on the Steelers behind Brown. Martavis Bryant is getting a lot of hype this year because he finished with 29 more fantasy points than Wheaton, but keep in mind that Bryant's point total was boosted by his eight TDs, most of which were of the long variety. Also of note is that Bryant had a measly 26 receptions on 49 targets. Bryant is probably their best deep threat, but I would prefer Wheaton, who is the better overall player. Big Ben topped 600 attempts last season and all things point to him throwing for a similar amount of attempts. Wheaton will only cost you a late round pick and should easily outperform his low draft position.
Bottom Line
This Steeler team will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Bell should rack up the points once his suspension is up, and newly acquired RB DeAngelo Williams should find some sort of success in the first two games while Bell is sidelined. Brown is practically unstoppable and one of these young WRs, hopefully Wheaton, is bound to break out with all the attempts Big Ben will throw this year. The Steelers will be a legitimate contender for the AFC Title.
Matty O
Studs: Justin Forsett, RB, Steve Smith, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Forsett, already on his fourth NFL team prior to turning 30, paid dividends last year as he took advantage of off field (Ray Rice) and on field (Bernard Pierce) RB problems to become the Ravens' number one RB. From Week 6 to the end of the season, he only had one game where he saw single digit carries, and he had four games of 20+ carries. While some experts think this was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come, I still think he will excel in 2015. With Ray Rice officially out of the picture, his only competition is Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen. The Ravens also added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator, who gave Matt Forte 266 carries and 130 targets in the passing game last season. Forsett was already a capable pass catcher (44 receptions in 2014) and should flirt with the 70-90 range with Trestman calling the shots. I'm high on Forsett this season, and think he finishes as a top 10 PPR back, and top 20 standard league back.
Even at age 36, I'm still listing Smith as a Stud for a few reasons. For starters, he had a rather productive year in 2014, topping 1,000 yards, while hauling in 79 receptions and six TDs. He did struggle down the stretch, but so did the Ravens' passing game as a whole. Similar to Forsett, he has little to no competition for targets behind him as Torrey Smith is now in San Francisco and rookie Breshad Perriman has been struggling with injuries all of training camp. He and Joe Flacco have had a year to establish chemistry together, and I expect that to continue in 2015. Smith already announced that 2015 will be his last season and I have no doubt that he will be motivated to make it a memorable one. A motivated Steve Smith is a scary thing.
This D/ST unit tied for sixth among fantasy defenses last season, never had a zero or negative fantasy point game, and did all this despite scoring only three D/ST TDs. Their run defense was once again stout, but they struggled to stop the pass, finishing in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. The good news is their pass defense woes of 2014 were likely to due to injuries piling up, allowing some of the guys lower on the depth chart to get some playing time and experience. They are healthier to start the year and should improve upon their 23rd ranked pass defense. This will always be one of the most feared defenses in the NFL, and is one of the safer defenses to pick for fantasy purposes.
Bust: None
I suppose Perriman could go here, but I'd have to wait until he gets healthy. His draft stock is slowly falling, even though he should make some noise once he actually gets on the field. Everyone else in the Stud category seems pretty safe where they are ranked.
Sleeper: Maxx Williams, TE
Although rookie TEs traditionally struggle in their transition from college to the NFL, Williams has at least landed in a lucrative situation. Starting Ravens TE Dennis Pitta is still recovering from injury and is likely to start the year on injured reserve, with some people thinking he might miss all of 2015. That leaves unimposing Crockett Gillmore as the only competition for TE targets. Williams, selected in the second round of this year's draft, has a big body (6'4" 254 lbs.) and is sure to be a red zone target for Flacco throughout the season. The yards might not be there, but once you get past the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, you're really looking for red zone looks and TDs at the TE position, which is what Williams will offer. Williams may be slow out of the gates, but I think he becomes a fantasy starter by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be your typical Ravens team; run the ball, control the clock, and rely on a fierce defense to win you games. While the depth may be lacking, I think whoever the starters are will be successful, seeing as how the Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. With a defense that should be improved now that they are healthy, the Ravens are my pick to come out of the AFC this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: Jeremy Hill, RB, AJ Green, WR
Hill was the reason why Giovanni Bernard was in my Bust category last season. Taken in the second round, Hill predictably got a lot of the between the tackles work out of the backfield, as Bernard is not built to take that kind of repetitive beating. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson eased Hill into the NFL to start the season before unleashing him in Week 9. From then on, Hill got 12+ carries all but once and registered five 100+ yard games. The coaching staff showed plenty of trust in him as Hill became the feature back, while Bernard was relegated to third and passing down situations. His successful end of 2014 has seen Hill's draft stock rise to the late first, early second round in 2015.
For the first time in his NFL career, Green battled injuries throughout the season, struggling to appear in only 13 games. Despite his nicks and bruises, Green still topped 1,000 yards receiving and saw triple digit targets, though his six TDs were the lowest of his career. Healthy to start 2015, expect Green to go back to catching 90+ balls and scoring double digit TDs. He is the best WR on this team by a mile and commands Andy Dalton's passes whenever he is on the field. Green is a safe bet to bounce back in 2015.
Bust: Hill, RB
What happens so often in fantasy football is that one awesome season by a player will cause his draft stock the following season to rise to unreasonable heights. This is what has happened to Hill. He's still a good back and certainly a viable starter, but I think the hype has gone too far. He's still only a two down back, and Bernard got a fair amount of touches in the running and passing game even after Hill established himself as a workhorse back. There are backs you can find later in the draft (Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris) that have a similar narrative of only being a two down, yet effective back. Hill is being drafted as a RB1, but I think he slips into mid-RB2 territory as the season progresses.
Sleeper: Tyler Eifert, TE
If Eifert had proven he could be an elite TE in the NFL, his stock would be through the roof. Unfortunately, he played second fiddle to Jermaine Gresham in 2013, then missed pretty much all of 2014 with an elbow injury. He has recovered well from that injury and slides into a TE position vacated by Gresham, who is now in the desert in Arizona. This is Eifert's first chance since being drafted in the first round in 2013 to be the undisputed number one TE in Cincinnati, and prove that he was worth taking in the first round. He's still a boom or bust option due to Cincy's run first mentality and Eifert's absent NFL track record, but he won't cost you anything and could finish as a top eight TE.
Bottom Line
The fantasy success of the Bengals lies with Green and Hill, while the real life success of the Bengals hinges on Andy Dalton delivering in the playoffs. This defense didn't get markedly better and should remain in the bottom half of the league, putting even more pressure on this offense to perform. Giovanni Bernard is a sneaky PPR pickup as he has been kind of forgotten in the Hill hoopla.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
If there is one on this roster, me and every other fantasy football analyzer would love to know where he's hiding.
Bust: Isiah Crowell, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because none of them are going that high, but the Crow should be the first Brown off the board. Crowell was part of one of the most frustrating RB committees last season as he, Ben Tate, and Terrance West seemed to get RB starts at random. The Browns' coaching staff seemed to go with an in-game hot hand approach, so sometimes the starter wouldn't even wind up with the most yards or touches. The Browns seem set in refusing to name a true bell cow back, despite Crow being built for that kind of workload, and even drafted Duke Johnson this year just to frustrate fantasy owners even more. I would stay far away from this backfield unless someone goes down with a serious injury.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
You have to dig deep to find some sleepers on this roster. Hawkins made my Sleeper section last year for basically the same reasons; there is almost no competition for targets and he at least puts up reception numbers, though the yards and TDs will certainly be lacking. New addition Dwayne Bowe might be the starter on the outside, but while playing in the slot, Hawkins still wound up with more receptions, yards, and TDs than Bowe in 2014. Hawkins likely won't provide anything more than PPR WR depth and/or a bye week fill in, but he is probably the safest option in the wasteland that is the Cleveland Browns offense.
Bottom Line
This is arguably the worst team from a fantasy perspective in the NFL. Josh McCown is somehow their starter, while Johnny Manziel looked laughable as a NFL QB last season. Their backfield is once again shaping up as a frustrating committee and their WRs will struggle to finish in the top 40 for fantasy. A high draft pick is looking likely once again for this team next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB, Antonio Brown, WR
It has been pretty incredible to see the Steelers transform from a ground and pound conservative offense to a high flying, high scoring one. Big Ben has transformed from a back end QB in fantasy to a legitimate elite starter. He's been helped by offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system as well as the Steelers' front office surrounding him with elite talent. Bell is a versitile RB, Antonio Brown is one of the best WRs in the league, Heath Miller is a reliable safety blanket, and the young trio of Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and rookie Sammie Coates provide plenty of depth at the WR position. Expect lots of attempts, yards, and TDs from Big Ben this season. He has huge upside.
The only bad thing I can say about Bell is that he is suspended for the first two games of the season. When his suspension is up, regardless of how well DeAngelo Williams plays, Bell will take over his role as an every down back. Bell showed his versatility last year by tallying 1361 rushing yards, 854 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs, establishing himself as one of fantasy football's most coveted assets. With playmakers on the outside, Bell faces soft boxes when he is called upon to run and is a mismatch for most linebackers when he comes out of the backfield. From Week 3 to the end of the season, Bell will be a top three RB.
You could make the argument that Brown should be taken first overall in a PPR draft. He got a ridiculous 182 targets from Big Ben last season and caught 129 of them. He came up two yards short of 1700 receiving yards and scored 13 receiving TDs, both of which should be sustainable in 2015. Big Ben looks for him as the first option, and Brown is also the guy who usually makes plays when Ben is scrambling around, shedding potential tacklers. The Steelers have a stable of young WRs behind Brown, but I don't see them taking a significant chunk of production away from Brown. Expect Brown to finish as the top WR in PPR and possibly standard leagues as well.
Bust: None
Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the only three Steelers that will be taken high, while the rest of them will be late round fliers. No bust to be seen here.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The Steelers and the fantasy football community have been waiting for Wheaton to break out for the past two seasons. Wheaton is a burner that can play in the slot or on the outside, and is the second most versatile WR on the Steelers behind Brown. Martavis Bryant is getting a lot of hype this year because he finished with 29 more fantasy points than Wheaton, but keep in mind that Bryant's point total was boosted by his eight TDs, most of which were of the long variety. Also of note is that Bryant had a measly 26 receptions on 49 targets. Bryant is probably their best deep threat, but I would prefer Wheaton, who is the better overall player. Big Ben topped 600 attempts last season and all things point to him throwing for a similar amount of attempts. Wheaton will only cost you a late round pick and should easily outperform his low draft position.
Bottom Line
This Steeler team will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Bell should rack up the points once his suspension is up, and newly acquired RB DeAngelo Williams should find some sort of success in the first two games while Bell is sidelined. Brown is practically unstoppable and one of these young WRs, hopefully Wheaton, is bound to break out with all the attempts Big Ben will throw this year. The Steelers will be a legitimate contender for the AFC Title.
Matty O
Saturday, August 15, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC North
Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Alshon Jeffery, WR
Forte had a rather modest year in terms of rushing yards (1,038) and rushing TDs (6), but was an absolute monster in the receiving game. He was one of only five players to catch over 100 balls last year, with the other four being WRs. While ex-head coach Mark Trestman had something to do with that, I still think new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase get Forte the ball in the passing game. 100+ catches is doubtful, but 60-70+ is a virtual lock so long as Forte stays healthy. Forte is getting up there in age and doesn't possess quite the same burst as he used to, but he's still the unquestioned number one back in Chicago and is in line for goal line rushing attempts. He's still a RB1, particularly in PPR.
Everything went Jeffery's way this offseason to set him up for a huge fantasy season. Jay Cutler's BFF Brandon Marshall got traded to the Jets, leaving Jeffery as the top target in Chicago. Cutler peppered Marshall with targets, whether they were good throws or not, and should do the same with Jeffery. New offensive coordinator Adam Gase coming over from Denver is also great news. In two seasons with the Broncos, Gase allowed Demaryius Thomas, a WR of similar build and skill to Jeffery, to rack up at least 92 catches, 1400 yards, and 11 receiving TDs in each year Gase was the offensive coordinator. Jeffery is their best deep ball and red zone threat and should make a push to top his 10 TDs from last year. In PPR leagues, I could see Jeffery finishing in the top three WRs.
Bust: Kevin White, WR
I didn't understand the hype surrounding this guy during the draft, and he has done nothing to help his stock since then. White was touted as an athletic freak, but only put up great numbers at West Virginia for one season. Since being drafted to the Bears, all he has done is dealt with shin splints and has been limited to light running on the side during training camp. Jeffery is clearly the number one WR, Eddie Royal is in the slot, and if White isn't careful, Marquess Wilson could pass him as the WR playing opposite Jeffery on the outside. White will need to get healthy and impress in practice and preseason games before he's guaranteed any kind of significant targets.
Sleeper: Eddie Royal, WR
Speaking of targets, I wouldn't be surprised if Royal gets plenty of them. The past couple years, the Bears have tried to attack teams with big, tall pass catchers like Marshall, Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett, but Royal brings that slot presence that can be so disruptive in today's NFL. Royal quietly had a good year in 2014 in San Diego, finishing with more fantasy points than big names like Vincent Jackson and Andre Johnson. Culter and Royal were teammates in Denver in 2008, when Royal had his most successful year as a WR, finishing with 91 receptions and 980 yards. If they can find that chemistry again, I expect Royal to be a fantasy asset, particularly in PPR leagues. Having a slot guy like Royal will be a great way to cut down on Cutler's interception total, while moving the chains.
Bottom Line
There were a lot of changes in the Windy City this offseason, most of which should help this franchise move in a positive direction. Cutler can be a useful fantasy QB when he is not throwing interceptions, and Bennett could be an elite TE if he could score more TDs. I also want to say a quick thing or two about rookie RB Jeremy Langford. He was one of my favorite RBs coming out this year, and I thought the Bears stole him in the 4th round. He won't get any significant touches unless Forte goes down, but stranger things have happened. He might even emerge as the Bears' goal line back during the season, as Langford racked up 40 rushing TDs in his last two seasons at Michigan State.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Golden Tate, WR
What a frustrating/rewarding season 2014 was for Johnson owners. Megatron started the year in classic Megatron form, roasting the Giants defense for 164 yards and 2 TDs. Then came three sub-100 yard, zero TD games, until he finally got injured in Week 5 and didn't return until after the Lions' Week 9 bye. Owners who were patient with him, were rewarded in a big way down the stretch. Games against Patrick Peterson, Darrelle Revis, and the Vikings didn't go according to plan, but huge performances against Tampa Bay and Chicago (twice) probably helped some owners make, and possibly win, their playoffs. Health is a very real concern for Johnson, as he hasn't played a full 16 games since 2012, but he's still one of the best WRs in the game when he plays. Other WRs like Odell Beckham Jr and Julio Jones are getting more hype than Johnson, so Megatron might even become a value pick if he falls in your draft.
After years of languishing in Seattle, Tate finally got his chance to realize his full WR potential since being drafted in the second round out of Notre Dame in 2010. Fortune favored Tate as he took advantage of Johnson's injury struggles and dominated the Lions' passing game while Johnson was out. From Weeks 4-10, Tate went over 100 yards in five of six games, while scoring three TDs. His numbers took a dip when Johnson returned which has some people worried, but not me. While the yards may have gone down, his receptions and targets were still piling up. Matthew Stafford has thrown 602+ passes in each of the past four seasons, and I don't see the Lions changing that in 2015. The only competition behind Tate is Lance Moore, Greg Salas, and Jeremy Ross. The TDs might not be there, but the receptions and yards after catch should continue for Tate.
Bust: Joique Bell, RB
Last year, Reggie Bush was my bust and Bell was my sleeper, so maybe this will just be a cycle for Lions' RBs from now on. Bell turned out to be a good sleeper pick last season, but 2015 is looking like a different story. In 2014, Bell was force fed the ball, particularly when Reggie Bush predictably struggled with injuries. Bell grounded and pounded his way to a 3.9 yards per carry average, just slightly above the likes of Bishop Sankey and Steven Jackson. Bell has also struggled with injuries this offseason, allowing newcomer Ameer Abdullah to start climbing up the depth chart, as well as fantasy draft boards.
Sleeper: Ameer Abdullah, RB
Abdullah was a star at Nebraska, going over 1,000 yards, scoring at least eight TDs, and catching at least 22 balls in each of the past three seasons. While he may not possess the imposing size (5'9" 205 lbs.) of a lot of NFL RBs, keep in mind that he got 264+ carries in each of his last two seasons at Nebraska. He's not going to barrel anyone over, but he is lightning quick, which allows him to avoid the crunching hits that would wear down a smaller back like him. Even if Bell comes back healthy, I could see Abdullah getting plenty of touches in the passing game and even a fair amount between the 20s (Bell would probably see most of the red zone work). The hype train for Abdullah might be moving a bit too fast, but I believe the excitement is warranted. I would draft Abdullah ahead of Bell and I believe Abdullah finishes the year with more fantasy points, even if both stay healthy.
Bottom Line
Detroit continues to be that team that gets so close, yet can't quite put it all together. I dropped Stafford from my Stud category this year, as his inconsistency has continued, although his high number of pass attempts makes him tempting from a fantasy perspective. Second year TE Eric Ebron will be asked to take a step forward, but I doubt that happens as Tate and Johnson get most of the targets. The loss of Ndamukong Suh dominated the headlines in the offseason, but expect this defense to stay in the top 10 as Haloti Ngata was added to returning Lions DeAndre Levy and Stephen Tulloch.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR, Randall Cobb, WR
What more is there to say about Rodgers? He throws for massive yards, throws for bunches of TDs, rarely throws a pick, and finished seventh among QBs in rushing yards last year. Rodgers and Andrew Luck are the clear cut top two QBs. It would not be a surprise if Rodgers finishes as the fantasy MVP.
While Rodgers is busy throwing the ball all over the field, Lacy is busy running against soft boxes because defenses don't want to get burned by the pass. Lacy has little competition to take away his touches, gets all the goal line rushes, and has surprisingly good hands for his size as he finished 13th among RBs in receptions last season. Lacy got double digit carries in every single game last season, and should see a similar workload this year. While his upside may be capped due to the amount of TDs Rodgers throws for, Lacy is arguably the safest RB in the first round.
While Lacy is one of the safer RBs to take, Nelson is one of the safer WRs. Nelson and Rodgers have uncanny chemistry, resulting in back to back 126+ target seasons for Nelson. Nelson had a spectacular 2014, finishing with five 9+ reception games and seven 100+ yard games. Even with Randall Cobb there and Davante Adams getting some more looks, Nelson remains the favorite target for Rodgers. Nelson is a lock to finish in the top 10 WRs.
After suffering a nasty leg injury in 2013, Cobb bounced back in a big way in 2014, finishing with triple digit targets and 91 receptions. The thing that really took his fantasy value to the next level was the fact that he was finding the end zone. In 16 games last season he found the end zone 12 times, whereas in his previous 36 games, he only found the end zone 13 times. While I'm not so sure you can expect those TD totals to remain that high, you can certainly expect the receptions to remain around the same. He gets great separation at the line and is one of the better slot WRs in the game. His value is boosted in PPR, but he's a top 20 guy in PPR or standard.
Bust: None
I see no reason why the Packer offense won't continue to click, allowing the Studs mentioned above to perform at, or exceed their draft position.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Lost in the offensive bonanza that the Pack put on every week is this defensive unit, led by Clay Matthews. Despite three negative fantasy point performances last year, they still finished as the eighth overall D/ST. This unit certainly isn't a Seattle or St. Louis where you can roll them out against anyone, but they can capitalize on soft matchups. Not only do they play in a division with two wildly erratic QBs (Cutler, Stafford), but their schedule this season also features the Chiefs, Niners, Rams, Raiders, and Cardinals. Things are setting up nicely for this unit.
Bottom Line
The Pack are the best team in the North, and one of the best teams in the NFL. This offense will continue to spew points, while the defense quietly does their job. Picking any player associated with this offense is a pretty good idea.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson
Even after a year away from football, AP should still be considered one of the top five RBs in the league. Unlike a player that misses time due to injury, AP was able to devote his time to simply working out to get leaner and stronger (if that's even possible). Also keep in mind that AP went through training camp last season and even played Week 1, so it's not like Mike Zimmer's system will be a foreign concept to him. Sure, he'll have to learn some new wrinkles, but I don't see him having a problem with that. He will have to get used to QB Teddy Bridgewater as they have yet to play a game together, but considering AP ran for over 2,000 yards with Christian Ponder under center, I wouldn't be too worried. I see AP coming back with a vengeance and finishing as a top five RB.
Bust: None
AP is the only one who could even have the Bust tag, but I just don't see him faltering.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, WR
Minnesota actually has a lot of sleepers this year (Charles Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, D/ST), but I think Wallace will be the one that makes the biggest impact. Since leaving Pittsburgh, Wallace's fantasy hype has taken a dive, but he still continues to put up respectable numbers. Ryan Tannehill threw a ridiculous amount of balls in Wallace's direction the past two seasons, though the success rate was lacking (67 receptions on 115 targets in 2014). His 2014 season was helped out by his double digit TDs, despite inconsistent play from his QB. Landing in Minnesota should help Wallace's numbers as offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a history of turning number one WRs into stars, and Bridgewater throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, which just so happens to be Wallace's specialty. The TDs might go down, simply because the Vikes would prefer to run with AP in the red zone, but I expect the yards and receptions to spike.
Bottom Line
Building for the future, this Vikings team is very close to breaking through. 2015 likely won't be the year they dethrone the Packers in the North, but I think they contend for a playoff spot this season. AP's return should help Bridgewater and the passing game, and expect their young, tough defense to become one of the more feared in the league.
Matty O
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Alshon Jeffery, WR
Forte had a rather modest year in terms of rushing yards (1,038) and rushing TDs (6), but was an absolute monster in the receiving game. He was one of only five players to catch over 100 balls last year, with the other four being WRs. While ex-head coach Mark Trestman had something to do with that, I still think new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase get Forte the ball in the passing game. 100+ catches is doubtful, but 60-70+ is a virtual lock so long as Forte stays healthy. Forte is getting up there in age and doesn't possess quite the same burst as he used to, but he's still the unquestioned number one back in Chicago and is in line for goal line rushing attempts. He's still a RB1, particularly in PPR.
Everything went Jeffery's way this offseason to set him up for a huge fantasy season. Jay Cutler's BFF Brandon Marshall got traded to the Jets, leaving Jeffery as the top target in Chicago. Cutler peppered Marshall with targets, whether they were good throws or not, and should do the same with Jeffery. New offensive coordinator Adam Gase coming over from Denver is also great news. In two seasons with the Broncos, Gase allowed Demaryius Thomas, a WR of similar build and skill to Jeffery, to rack up at least 92 catches, 1400 yards, and 11 receiving TDs in each year Gase was the offensive coordinator. Jeffery is their best deep ball and red zone threat and should make a push to top his 10 TDs from last year. In PPR leagues, I could see Jeffery finishing in the top three WRs.
Bust: Kevin White, WR
I didn't understand the hype surrounding this guy during the draft, and he has done nothing to help his stock since then. White was touted as an athletic freak, but only put up great numbers at West Virginia for one season. Since being drafted to the Bears, all he has done is dealt with shin splints and has been limited to light running on the side during training camp. Jeffery is clearly the number one WR, Eddie Royal is in the slot, and if White isn't careful, Marquess Wilson could pass him as the WR playing opposite Jeffery on the outside. White will need to get healthy and impress in practice and preseason games before he's guaranteed any kind of significant targets.
Sleeper: Eddie Royal, WR
Speaking of targets, I wouldn't be surprised if Royal gets plenty of them. The past couple years, the Bears have tried to attack teams with big, tall pass catchers like Marshall, Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett, but Royal brings that slot presence that can be so disruptive in today's NFL. Royal quietly had a good year in 2014 in San Diego, finishing with more fantasy points than big names like Vincent Jackson and Andre Johnson. Culter and Royal were teammates in Denver in 2008, when Royal had his most successful year as a WR, finishing with 91 receptions and 980 yards. If they can find that chemistry again, I expect Royal to be a fantasy asset, particularly in PPR leagues. Having a slot guy like Royal will be a great way to cut down on Cutler's interception total, while moving the chains.
Bottom Line
There were a lot of changes in the Windy City this offseason, most of which should help this franchise move in a positive direction. Cutler can be a useful fantasy QB when he is not throwing interceptions, and Bennett could be an elite TE if he could score more TDs. I also want to say a quick thing or two about rookie RB Jeremy Langford. He was one of my favorite RBs coming out this year, and I thought the Bears stole him in the 4th round. He won't get any significant touches unless Forte goes down, but stranger things have happened. He might even emerge as the Bears' goal line back during the season, as Langford racked up 40 rushing TDs in his last two seasons at Michigan State.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Golden Tate, WR
What a frustrating/rewarding season 2014 was for Johnson owners. Megatron started the year in classic Megatron form, roasting the Giants defense for 164 yards and 2 TDs. Then came three sub-100 yard, zero TD games, until he finally got injured in Week 5 and didn't return until after the Lions' Week 9 bye. Owners who were patient with him, were rewarded in a big way down the stretch. Games against Patrick Peterson, Darrelle Revis, and the Vikings didn't go according to plan, but huge performances against Tampa Bay and Chicago (twice) probably helped some owners make, and possibly win, their playoffs. Health is a very real concern for Johnson, as he hasn't played a full 16 games since 2012, but he's still one of the best WRs in the game when he plays. Other WRs like Odell Beckham Jr and Julio Jones are getting more hype than Johnson, so Megatron might even become a value pick if he falls in your draft.
After years of languishing in Seattle, Tate finally got his chance to realize his full WR potential since being drafted in the second round out of Notre Dame in 2010. Fortune favored Tate as he took advantage of Johnson's injury struggles and dominated the Lions' passing game while Johnson was out. From Weeks 4-10, Tate went over 100 yards in five of six games, while scoring three TDs. His numbers took a dip when Johnson returned which has some people worried, but not me. While the yards may have gone down, his receptions and targets were still piling up. Matthew Stafford has thrown 602+ passes in each of the past four seasons, and I don't see the Lions changing that in 2015. The only competition behind Tate is Lance Moore, Greg Salas, and Jeremy Ross. The TDs might not be there, but the receptions and yards after catch should continue for Tate.
Bust: Joique Bell, RB
Last year, Reggie Bush was my bust and Bell was my sleeper, so maybe this will just be a cycle for Lions' RBs from now on. Bell turned out to be a good sleeper pick last season, but 2015 is looking like a different story. In 2014, Bell was force fed the ball, particularly when Reggie Bush predictably struggled with injuries. Bell grounded and pounded his way to a 3.9 yards per carry average, just slightly above the likes of Bishop Sankey and Steven Jackson. Bell has also struggled with injuries this offseason, allowing newcomer Ameer Abdullah to start climbing up the depth chart, as well as fantasy draft boards.
Sleeper: Ameer Abdullah, RB
Abdullah was a star at Nebraska, going over 1,000 yards, scoring at least eight TDs, and catching at least 22 balls in each of the past three seasons. While he may not possess the imposing size (5'9" 205 lbs.) of a lot of NFL RBs, keep in mind that he got 264+ carries in each of his last two seasons at Nebraska. He's not going to barrel anyone over, but he is lightning quick, which allows him to avoid the crunching hits that would wear down a smaller back like him. Even if Bell comes back healthy, I could see Abdullah getting plenty of touches in the passing game and even a fair amount between the 20s (Bell would probably see most of the red zone work). The hype train for Abdullah might be moving a bit too fast, but I believe the excitement is warranted. I would draft Abdullah ahead of Bell and I believe Abdullah finishes the year with more fantasy points, even if both stay healthy.
Bottom Line
Detroit continues to be that team that gets so close, yet can't quite put it all together. I dropped Stafford from my Stud category this year, as his inconsistency has continued, although his high number of pass attempts makes him tempting from a fantasy perspective. Second year TE Eric Ebron will be asked to take a step forward, but I doubt that happens as Tate and Johnson get most of the targets. The loss of Ndamukong Suh dominated the headlines in the offseason, but expect this defense to stay in the top 10 as Haloti Ngata was added to returning Lions DeAndre Levy and Stephen Tulloch.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR, Randall Cobb, WR
What more is there to say about Rodgers? He throws for massive yards, throws for bunches of TDs, rarely throws a pick, and finished seventh among QBs in rushing yards last year. Rodgers and Andrew Luck are the clear cut top two QBs. It would not be a surprise if Rodgers finishes as the fantasy MVP.
While Rodgers is busy throwing the ball all over the field, Lacy is busy running against soft boxes because defenses don't want to get burned by the pass. Lacy has little competition to take away his touches, gets all the goal line rushes, and has surprisingly good hands for his size as he finished 13th among RBs in receptions last season. Lacy got double digit carries in every single game last season, and should see a similar workload this year. While his upside may be capped due to the amount of TDs Rodgers throws for, Lacy is arguably the safest RB in the first round.
While Lacy is one of the safer RBs to take, Nelson is one of the safer WRs. Nelson and Rodgers have uncanny chemistry, resulting in back to back 126+ target seasons for Nelson. Nelson had a spectacular 2014, finishing with five 9+ reception games and seven 100+ yard games. Even with Randall Cobb there and Davante Adams getting some more looks, Nelson remains the favorite target for Rodgers. Nelson is a lock to finish in the top 10 WRs.
After suffering a nasty leg injury in 2013, Cobb bounced back in a big way in 2014, finishing with triple digit targets and 91 receptions. The thing that really took his fantasy value to the next level was the fact that he was finding the end zone. In 16 games last season he found the end zone 12 times, whereas in his previous 36 games, he only found the end zone 13 times. While I'm not so sure you can expect those TD totals to remain that high, you can certainly expect the receptions to remain around the same. He gets great separation at the line and is one of the better slot WRs in the game. His value is boosted in PPR, but he's a top 20 guy in PPR or standard.
Bust: None
I see no reason why the Packer offense won't continue to click, allowing the Studs mentioned above to perform at, or exceed their draft position.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Lost in the offensive bonanza that the Pack put on every week is this defensive unit, led by Clay Matthews. Despite three negative fantasy point performances last year, they still finished as the eighth overall D/ST. This unit certainly isn't a Seattle or St. Louis where you can roll them out against anyone, but they can capitalize on soft matchups. Not only do they play in a division with two wildly erratic QBs (Cutler, Stafford), but their schedule this season also features the Chiefs, Niners, Rams, Raiders, and Cardinals. Things are setting up nicely for this unit.
Bottom Line
The Pack are the best team in the North, and one of the best teams in the NFL. This offense will continue to spew points, while the defense quietly does their job. Picking any player associated with this offense is a pretty good idea.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson
Even after a year away from football, AP should still be considered one of the top five RBs in the league. Unlike a player that misses time due to injury, AP was able to devote his time to simply working out to get leaner and stronger (if that's even possible). Also keep in mind that AP went through training camp last season and even played Week 1, so it's not like Mike Zimmer's system will be a foreign concept to him. Sure, he'll have to learn some new wrinkles, but I don't see him having a problem with that. He will have to get used to QB Teddy Bridgewater as they have yet to play a game together, but considering AP ran for over 2,000 yards with Christian Ponder under center, I wouldn't be too worried. I see AP coming back with a vengeance and finishing as a top five RB.
Bust: None
AP is the only one who could even have the Bust tag, but I just don't see him faltering.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, WR
Minnesota actually has a lot of sleepers this year (Charles Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, D/ST), but I think Wallace will be the one that makes the biggest impact. Since leaving Pittsburgh, Wallace's fantasy hype has taken a dive, but he still continues to put up respectable numbers. Ryan Tannehill threw a ridiculous amount of balls in Wallace's direction the past two seasons, though the success rate was lacking (67 receptions on 115 targets in 2014). His 2014 season was helped out by his double digit TDs, despite inconsistent play from his QB. Landing in Minnesota should help Wallace's numbers as offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a history of turning number one WRs into stars, and Bridgewater throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, which just so happens to be Wallace's specialty. The TDs might go down, simply because the Vikes would prefer to run with AP in the red zone, but I expect the yards and receptions to spike.
Bottom Line
Building for the future, this Vikings team is very close to breaking through. 2015 likely won't be the year they dethrone the Packers in the North, but I think they contend for a playoff spot this season. AP's return should help Bridgewater and the passing game, and expect their young, tough defense to become one of the more feared in the league.
Matty O
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC West
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, CJ Anderson, RB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Emmanuel Sanders, WR
Yeah, yeah, we all know that Manning floundered down the stretch last year, but he enters 2015 completely healthy and still finished fourth in QB fantasy scoring last year, despite his late struggles. While Julius Thomas and Wes Welker might be out of the picture, new TE Owen Daniels has proved a capable pass catcher throughout his career, and second year WR Cody Latimer has all the tools needed to contribute as a NFL player. There is talk that the Broncos will emphasize the run more and scale back the pass, but I think that could help Manning in the long run and enable him to put up great fantasy numbers from start to finish. His poor finish last year has caused his draft position to plummet to around the 3rd/4th round, which is excellent value for the numbers that he can, and most likely will, put up this year.
For the second year in a row, an unexpected Bronco RB became an elite RB option. In 2013, Knowshon Moreno went from being a draft bust to having a ridiculously productive year. He cashed in that season for a contract with the Miami Dolphins in 2014, leaving the backfield open once again. Then, due to injury and overall poor play, starter Montee Ball soon found his starting RB job taken away by second year man CJ Anderson. Anderson went on an absolute tear from Weeks 10-17, tallying five 20+ point performances and adding an extra dimension to this offense. Anderson is hoping that 2015 will be the year that stops the trend of backups becoming stars in Denver. As I mentioned above, new head coach Gary Kubiak plans on using the running game more, and Anderson looks like the guy that will get most of the carries. With Manning calling the audibles to put players in the best position possible, I expect Anderson to be an elite RB1 this year, and one of the safer first round picks.
Thomas is a target machine and is basically locked in as a top five WR as long as Manning is still around. Thomas had the most targets last season, the second most receptions, and second most yards of any WR. While the Broncos might try to run it more often down in the red zone, there will also be red zone targets that open up now that Julius Thomas is in Jacksonville. Thomas is big, physical, and fast, and will continue to be Manning's number one option. He should be taken within the first ten picks in all leagues, and within the first eight in PPR leagues.
While I technically had Cody Latimer as my Bronco sleeper last year, I also viewed Sanders as quite a bargain as well. Coming over from Pittsburgh, Sanders had always been overshadowed by Mike Wallace and/or Antonio Brown, and never got the credit he deserved. While I didn't know much about him coming over from Pittsburgh, I knew that he was quick and had an excellent opportunity with the Broncos once it was confirmed that he would be playing opposite Thomas as Denver's WR2. He made me, and everyone that took a chance on him, look good, as he was fantasy football's sixth best WR and finished with only ten fewer receptions than Thomas. With Wes Welker gone, there have been rumblings of moving him to the slot and leaving Latimer on the outside. I actually think this fits Sanders better as Latimer has the bigger, stronger body size. While this might cause Sanders to regress from his 1404 yards, I think his high number of receptions remain, making him a threat to be a top 10 PPR WR once again.
Bust: None
I think every player listed above is ranked reasonably and will perform at or exceed their draft position.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Back to back years for Latimer to be featured in my Sleeper section, so hopefully it pays off this time. Latimer, a second year WR out of Indiana, fits the outside receiver look much better than teammate Emmanuel Sanders, as Latimer is three inches taller and 35 pounds heavier than Sanders. His value is lessened in PPR leagues, as I'm not sure he gets peppered with targets each game, but he can certainly be a red zone presence and a down the field option, particularly if defenses are rolling extra coverage Thomas' way. His role in this offense is yet to be confirmed, but I have no doubt that he will be involved in some way and will start creeping up draft boards by the start of the season. While I don't see him putting up numbers any higher than a FLEX/WR3, he likely won't cost you that much on draft day anyways. Why not take a big body on Denver's offense with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball?
Bottom Line
Once again, this Denver team is loaded for fantasy football. The passing attack, even dumbed down, will still be more potent than half of the other teams in the league. CJ Anderson looks like the go-to guy in the backfield, and Kubiak follower Owen Daniels might not match Julius Thomas' prolific numbers, but Owens will also cost much less on draft day. Depending on how fast rookie Shane Ray develops, this D/ST could also become elite with Ray, DeMarcus Ware, and Von Miller all coming off the edge.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Charles was the lone bright spot for the Chiefs last year, and virtually the only source of Kansas City's TDs. Charles topped 1000 yards and scored 14 total TDs, despite missing the Miami game and being on a team that had zero passing game threats. Despite a drop off in number of carries, Charles is still one of the biggest home run threats in the NFL and can break off a run or quick screen for six anytime he wants. While I think he may cede even more touches to the likes of Knile Davis and D'Anthony Thomas, I still think he finishes with RB1 numbers.
Bust: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Zero. That's how many TDs Chief WRs scored last season. While I think that absurd stat changes this season, I still don't think Maclin warrants a 7th round pick, which is where he is currently projected. I actually think Maclin is a good player, but the situation that he now finds himself in is quite depressing. The Chiefs will likely continue to rely on their run game, defense, and Alex Smith not turning the ball over, in order to win games. I actually like TE Travis Kelce as an option in the passing game better than I do Maclin. Maclin will register at least a TD, but I don't think he will even be a FLEX play by the end of the year. I would much rather have someone like Allen Robinson or Breshad Perriman, who are going after Maclin.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Things fell apart for this defense last year as they lost star linebacker Derrick Johnson to a torn Achilles and star safety Eric Berry to Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Johnson is back, Berry has been cleared to practice, and they return to a unit that still has Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season. Despite bad overall fantasy numbers last season, they actually never had a negative fantasy point game, and never allowed more than 29 points in any game last season. The thing that brought down their fantasy score was a severe lack of turnovers (13). If they can bump that number up, even if they are only middle of the pack, they should return as a top 10 unit in 2015.
Bottom Line
Apart from Charles, this team was offensively challenged last season and I don't see much changing this season. TE Travis Kelce should be viewed as a potential breakout candidate because he is now the undisputed starter, but I still wouldn't put him over Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, or Rob Gronkowski. This is also a scenario where handcuffing is extremely important as Charles has an injury history, and Knile Davis has proved more than capable of producing when given the chance.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
Some might argue that Latavius Murray deserves to belong in here, but keep in mind that pretty much all his damage came in Week 12 against Kansas City...on four runs. After missing Week 13 due to a concussion, he languished through Weeks 14-17 averaging 3.2 yards per carry. While his appalling backups (Roy Helu, Trent Richardson) basically guarantee him plenty of playing time, I'm not sure he does anything of value with it.
Bust: Murray, RB
See Above. He's also going in the 4th/5th round, ahead of guys like Rashad Jennings and Joseph Randle.
Sleeper: Amari Cooper, WR
Even with all the hype he has gotten, I still think he'll outperform his draft position. Cooper, a rookie WR out of Alabama, was said to be the most pro-ready prospect in this crop of rookie WRs and I'm certainly a believer. Despite playing with mediocre QB talent at Alabama, Cooper excelled in college, particularly in 2014 when he had 124 receptions, 1,727 receiving yards, and 16 receiving TDs. With James Jones now in New York, Cooper is immediately the number one WR in this offense and should have confidence after seeing the likes of Odell Beckham Jr and Kelvin Benjamin put up great rookie numbers. Derek Carr still has a ways to go as a QB, but did finish with over 3,000 yards and 21 passing TDs. Cooper should see plenty of targets and will be, at worst, a WR2, and possibly creep into the WR1 tier, particularly in PPR leagues.
Bottom Line
I think the Raiders are steadily improving on both sides of the ball, but I don't think you see that improvement in their record this season. They'll still be cellar dwellers, but I think the Carr to Cooper combo could make a lot of fantasy owners very happy this season. The Raiders will have to play catch up more often than not this season, and garbage time points still count as fantasy points.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
Rivers finished as a top 12 QB last season, despite struggles down the stretch and an out-of-nowhere -3 performance against Miami in Week 9. Although Antonio Gates starts the season suspended, the Chargers signed Orlando Franklin to beef up the offensive line, signed WR Stevie Johnson to help in the passing game, and drafted RB Melvin Gordon to keep the defense off balance. Rivers is a risk taker and will throw his fair share of interceptions, but he still has a big time arm and is one of the better play callers at the line of scrimmage. His days of being a top five QB are over, but it's not out of the question for him to finish top 10/12.
I only feel confident calling Allen a stud in PPR leagues. Allen saw a significant drop off in yards and TDs last year compared to his rookie season, when he set the fantasy world on fire as Rivers' go-to WR. Despite a down 2014, he still commanded 121 targets, despite missing the final two games of the season. I think the targets continue to stay in the triple digits and his receptions see an uptick. His calling card is creating separation at the line of scrimmage, and he will need to be more successful at that this season. Again, standard league owners should downgrade Allen because the yards and TDs might not be there, but I expect a comeback year in PPR leagues.
Bust: Melvin Gordon, RB
Admittedly, I'm growing warmer to Gordon as we near the season as he is certainly San Diego's between the tackles and goal line runner, but there are some concerns that I have. First off, I doubt he'll play on any passing downs in 2015 as Danny Woodhead and, to a lesser extent Branden Oliver, are more suited for catching balls out of the backfield (Gordon had 22 receptions in 45 games at Wisconsin). Second, according to Pro Football Focus, who grades offensive lines on a yearly basis, the Chargers finished 29th out of 32 teams. The addition of Franklin will be a boost, but they are still a long way from being elite. Lastly, Gordon is a Wisconsin RB, which has not translated well to the NFL. Since 2004, five Badgers eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in their final season at Wisconsin (Brian Calhoun, PJ Hill, John Clay, James White, Montee Ball), yet all of them have found little to no success in the NFL. My theory is that all of them played behind massive Wisconsin offensive lines and were force fed the football. While Gordon did best all of them by running for over 2,000 yards last year, he now goes to a low ranked offensive line and will only be playing on first and second down. Again, the opportunity is there, but let's not pretend like he is a sure thing to excel.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
While I think that Allen leads the Chargers in receptions this season, it's very possible that Johnson leads the team in yards. Johnson was completely forgotten last season, as he was part of the dumpster fire that was the 49er offense. In Buffalo, however, he was very productive in real life and fantasy football. He had three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-12 with no-name QBs throwing him the football. I think that the move to San Diego re-energizes his still young career (he's only 28 years old), as he will be no worse than the third WR on this team, though I think he eventually passes Malcom Floyd on the depth chart. With Antonio Gates suspended to start the season, it will give Johnson a chance to develop a rapport with Rivers and hopefully become a reliable option for him. If he can play anywhere as close to how he played in Buffalo, he could be one of the best WR steals this season, as he will probably go in one of the last rounds of your draft or go completely undrafted.
Bottom Line
From a fantasy perspective, there's a lot of opportunity and new faces on this Chargers team. Gates' suspension opens up the door for backup TE Ladarius Green to make a name for himself, after being hyped up the last couple of seasons. Ryan Mathews' exit to Philly opens up the door for Gordon, and Woodhead's return is something to keep an eye on if he can become a pass catching machine like he was in 2013. I also expect WRs Johnson and Allen to improve upon down years in 2014. The Chargers will knock on the door for a Wild Card spot, but I don't think they'll get it.
Matty O
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, CJ Anderson, RB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Emmanuel Sanders, WR
Yeah, yeah, we all know that Manning floundered down the stretch last year, but he enters 2015 completely healthy and still finished fourth in QB fantasy scoring last year, despite his late struggles. While Julius Thomas and Wes Welker might be out of the picture, new TE Owen Daniels has proved a capable pass catcher throughout his career, and second year WR Cody Latimer has all the tools needed to contribute as a NFL player. There is talk that the Broncos will emphasize the run more and scale back the pass, but I think that could help Manning in the long run and enable him to put up great fantasy numbers from start to finish. His poor finish last year has caused his draft position to plummet to around the 3rd/4th round, which is excellent value for the numbers that he can, and most likely will, put up this year.
For the second year in a row, an unexpected Bronco RB became an elite RB option. In 2013, Knowshon Moreno went from being a draft bust to having a ridiculously productive year. He cashed in that season for a contract with the Miami Dolphins in 2014, leaving the backfield open once again. Then, due to injury and overall poor play, starter Montee Ball soon found his starting RB job taken away by second year man CJ Anderson. Anderson went on an absolute tear from Weeks 10-17, tallying five 20+ point performances and adding an extra dimension to this offense. Anderson is hoping that 2015 will be the year that stops the trend of backups becoming stars in Denver. As I mentioned above, new head coach Gary Kubiak plans on using the running game more, and Anderson looks like the guy that will get most of the carries. With Manning calling the audibles to put players in the best position possible, I expect Anderson to be an elite RB1 this year, and one of the safer first round picks.
Thomas is a target machine and is basically locked in as a top five WR as long as Manning is still around. Thomas had the most targets last season, the second most receptions, and second most yards of any WR. While the Broncos might try to run it more often down in the red zone, there will also be red zone targets that open up now that Julius Thomas is in Jacksonville. Thomas is big, physical, and fast, and will continue to be Manning's number one option. He should be taken within the first ten picks in all leagues, and within the first eight in PPR leagues.
While I technically had Cody Latimer as my Bronco sleeper last year, I also viewed Sanders as quite a bargain as well. Coming over from Pittsburgh, Sanders had always been overshadowed by Mike Wallace and/or Antonio Brown, and never got the credit he deserved. While I didn't know much about him coming over from Pittsburgh, I knew that he was quick and had an excellent opportunity with the Broncos once it was confirmed that he would be playing opposite Thomas as Denver's WR2. He made me, and everyone that took a chance on him, look good, as he was fantasy football's sixth best WR and finished with only ten fewer receptions than Thomas. With Wes Welker gone, there have been rumblings of moving him to the slot and leaving Latimer on the outside. I actually think this fits Sanders better as Latimer has the bigger, stronger body size. While this might cause Sanders to regress from his 1404 yards, I think his high number of receptions remain, making him a threat to be a top 10 PPR WR once again.
Bust: None
I think every player listed above is ranked reasonably and will perform at or exceed their draft position.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Back to back years for Latimer to be featured in my Sleeper section, so hopefully it pays off this time. Latimer, a second year WR out of Indiana, fits the outside receiver look much better than teammate Emmanuel Sanders, as Latimer is three inches taller and 35 pounds heavier than Sanders. His value is lessened in PPR leagues, as I'm not sure he gets peppered with targets each game, but he can certainly be a red zone presence and a down the field option, particularly if defenses are rolling extra coverage Thomas' way. His role in this offense is yet to be confirmed, but I have no doubt that he will be involved in some way and will start creeping up draft boards by the start of the season. While I don't see him putting up numbers any higher than a FLEX/WR3, he likely won't cost you that much on draft day anyways. Why not take a big body on Denver's offense with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball?
Bottom Line
Once again, this Denver team is loaded for fantasy football. The passing attack, even dumbed down, will still be more potent than half of the other teams in the league. CJ Anderson looks like the go-to guy in the backfield, and Kubiak follower Owen Daniels might not match Julius Thomas' prolific numbers, but Owens will also cost much less on draft day. Depending on how fast rookie Shane Ray develops, this D/ST could also become elite with Ray, DeMarcus Ware, and Von Miller all coming off the edge.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Charles was the lone bright spot for the Chiefs last year, and virtually the only source of Kansas City's TDs. Charles topped 1000 yards and scored 14 total TDs, despite missing the Miami game and being on a team that had zero passing game threats. Despite a drop off in number of carries, Charles is still one of the biggest home run threats in the NFL and can break off a run or quick screen for six anytime he wants. While I think he may cede even more touches to the likes of Knile Davis and D'Anthony Thomas, I still think he finishes with RB1 numbers.
Bust: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Zero. That's how many TDs Chief WRs scored last season. While I think that absurd stat changes this season, I still don't think Maclin warrants a 7th round pick, which is where he is currently projected. I actually think Maclin is a good player, but the situation that he now finds himself in is quite depressing. The Chiefs will likely continue to rely on their run game, defense, and Alex Smith not turning the ball over, in order to win games. I actually like TE Travis Kelce as an option in the passing game better than I do Maclin. Maclin will register at least a TD, but I don't think he will even be a FLEX play by the end of the year. I would much rather have someone like Allen Robinson or Breshad Perriman, who are going after Maclin.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Things fell apart for this defense last year as they lost star linebacker Derrick Johnson to a torn Achilles and star safety Eric Berry to Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Johnson is back, Berry has been cleared to practice, and they return to a unit that still has Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season. Despite bad overall fantasy numbers last season, they actually never had a negative fantasy point game, and never allowed more than 29 points in any game last season. The thing that brought down their fantasy score was a severe lack of turnovers (13). If they can bump that number up, even if they are only middle of the pack, they should return as a top 10 unit in 2015.
Bottom Line
Apart from Charles, this team was offensively challenged last season and I don't see much changing this season. TE Travis Kelce should be viewed as a potential breakout candidate because he is now the undisputed starter, but I still wouldn't put him over Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, or Rob Gronkowski. This is also a scenario where handcuffing is extremely important as Charles has an injury history, and Knile Davis has proved more than capable of producing when given the chance.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
Some might argue that Latavius Murray deserves to belong in here, but keep in mind that pretty much all his damage came in Week 12 against Kansas City...on four runs. After missing Week 13 due to a concussion, he languished through Weeks 14-17 averaging 3.2 yards per carry. While his appalling backups (Roy Helu, Trent Richardson) basically guarantee him plenty of playing time, I'm not sure he does anything of value with it.
Bust: Murray, RB
See Above. He's also going in the 4th/5th round, ahead of guys like Rashad Jennings and Joseph Randle.
Sleeper: Amari Cooper, WR
Even with all the hype he has gotten, I still think he'll outperform his draft position. Cooper, a rookie WR out of Alabama, was said to be the most pro-ready prospect in this crop of rookie WRs and I'm certainly a believer. Despite playing with mediocre QB talent at Alabama, Cooper excelled in college, particularly in 2014 when he had 124 receptions, 1,727 receiving yards, and 16 receiving TDs. With James Jones now in New York, Cooper is immediately the number one WR in this offense and should have confidence after seeing the likes of Odell Beckham Jr and Kelvin Benjamin put up great rookie numbers. Derek Carr still has a ways to go as a QB, but did finish with over 3,000 yards and 21 passing TDs. Cooper should see plenty of targets and will be, at worst, a WR2, and possibly creep into the WR1 tier, particularly in PPR leagues.
Bottom Line
I think the Raiders are steadily improving on both sides of the ball, but I don't think you see that improvement in their record this season. They'll still be cellar dwellers, but I think the Carr to Cooper combo could make a lot of fantasy owners very happy this season. The Raiders will have to play catch up more often than not this season, and garbage time points still count as fantasy points.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
Rivers finished as a top 12 QB last season, despite struggles down the stretch and an out-of-nowhere -3 performance against Miami in Week 9. Although Antonio Gates starts the season suspended, the Chargers signed Orlando Franklin to beef up the offensive line, signed WR Stevie Johnson to help in the passing game, and drafted RB Melvin Gordon to keep the defense off balance. Rivers is a risk taker and will throw his fair share of interceptions, but he still has a big time arm and is one of the better play callers at the line of scrimmage. His days of being a top five QB are over, but it's not out of the question for him to finish top 10/12.
I only feel confident calling Allen a stud in PPR leagues. Allen saw a significant drop off in yards and TDs last year compared to his rookie season, when he set the fantasy world on fire as Rivers' go-to WR. Despite a down 2014, he still commanded 121 targets, despite missing the final two games of the season. I think the targets continue to stay in the triple digits and his receptions see an uptick. His calling card is creating separation at the line of scrimmage, and he will need to be more successful at that this season. Again, standard league owners should downgrade Allen because the yards and TDs might not be there, but I expect a comeback year in PPR leagues.
Bust: Melvin Gordon, RB
Admittedly, I'm growing warmer to Gordon as we near the season as he is certainly San Diego's between the tackles and goal line runner, but there are some concerns that I have. First off, I doubt he'll play on any passing downs in 2015 as Danny Woodhead and, to a lesser extent Branden Oliver, are more suited for catching balls out of the backfield (Gordon had 22 receptions in 45 games at Wisconsin). Second, according to Pro Football Focus, who grades offensive lines on a yearly basis, the Chargers finished 29th out of 32 teams. The addition of Franklin will be a boost, but they are still a long way from being elite. Lastly, Gordon is a Wisconsin RB, which has not translated well to the NFL. Since 2004, five Badgers eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in their final season at Wisconsin (Brian Calhoun, PJ Hill, John Clay, James White, Montee Ball), yet all of them have found little to no success in the NFL. My theory is that all of them played behind massive Wisconsin offensive lines and were force fed the football. While Gordon did best all of them by running for over 2,000 yards last year, he now goes to a low ranked offensive line and will only be playing on first and second down. Again, the opportunity is there, but let's not pretend like he is a sure thing to excel.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
While I think that Allen leads the Chargers in receptions this season, it's very possible that Johnson leads the team in yards. Johnson was completely forgotten last season, as he was part of the dumpster fire that was the 49er offense. In Buffalo, however, he was very productive in real life and fantasy football. He had three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-12 with no-name QBs throwing him the football. I think that the move to San Diego re-energizes his still young career (he's only 28 years old), as he will be no worse than the third WR on this team, though I think he eventually passes Malcom Floyd on the depth chart. With Antonio Gates suspended to start the season, it will give Johnson a chance to develop a rapport with Rivers and hopefully become a reliable option for him. If he can play anywhere as close to how he played in Buffalo, he could be one of the best WR steals this season, as he will probably go in one of the last rounds of your draft or go completely undrafted.
Bottom Line
From a fantasy perspective, there's a lot of opportunity and new faces on this Chargers team. Gates' suspension opens up the door for backup TE Ladarius Green to make a name for himself, after being hyped up the last couple of seasons. Ryan Mathews' exit to Philly opens up the door for Gordon, and Woodhead's return is something to keep an eye on if he can become a pass catching machine like he was in 2013. I also expect WRs Johnson and Allen to improve upon down years in 2014. The Chargers will knock on the door for a Wild Card spot, but I don't think they'll get it.
Matty O
Monday, August 3, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC West
St. Louis Rams
Studs: Defense/Special Teams
This unit was highly touted at the start of last season as well, but likely left owners frustrated by the middle of the year. In the Rams' first seven games, this unit gave up 30+ points five times and only registered eight turnovers. After Week 8, however, this unit racked up 17 turnovers, three TDs, and recorded back to back shutouts in Weeks 13 and 14. They finished as the ninth ranked fantasy unit at the end of 2014, and I expect them to improve upon that this year. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league, led by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, and should be able to get plenty of pressure on QBs this season. They do have the explosive Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers on their schedule this year, but I expect this unit to finish, at worst, in the top 10 fantasy D/ST, and likely finish as a top five unit.
Bust: Todd Gurley, RB
I don't understand all the hype that Gurley is getting. His career at Georgia was productive, there's no denying that, but he's coming off an ACL injury, is likely to miss training camp and/or preseason reps, and isn't guaranteed the starting RB job anyways. While I think Gurley could have a productive career long term, I think people are simply writing off Tre Mason, as though Mason did nothing last year. Mason proved to be the lone bright spot for the Rams last year once he wrestled the starting job away from Zac Stacy. Mason averaged 4.3 yards per carry and finished with five total TDs. He had two 100+ yard games, all while facing a gauntlet of tough run defenses (Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, Washington, Denver). The Rams used three of their first five draft picks on offensive line, which should help to shore up a unit that was rather poor last season. Gurley is currently ranked, and being drafted, ahead of Mason, which I think is absurd. Mason is established in this offense and has proved that he can play in this league. I'd rather have him than an unproven, coming-off-an-ACL rookie.
Sleeper: Brian Quick, WR
Quick was having a reasonably productive year, by St. Louis Ram standards, until he went down with a season ending injury in Week 8 last year. He's healed up, and enters 2015 as the Rams' unquestioned number one WR. Even though the Rams are a run first team, number one WRs on any team is always an attractive fantasy asset, purely because of the targets he will get. Quick also gets to catch footballs from Nick Foles this season, which is certainly an upgrade from Austin Davis. Playing in the NFC West and having to face Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman twice a year certainly is a bit of a hindrance, but I think Quick could be a nice bye week fill in or even a FLEX play in PPR leagues. You'll be able to get Quick late, or even off of waivers if he goes undrafted, so there's hardly any risk in taking a chance on him.
Bottom Line
As has been the case in recent years, there's not too much to get excited about from a fantasy perspective with the Rams. They'll likely rely on ball control and their solid defense to win games, and will try to avoid high scoring shootouts. Nick Foles should be considered an upgrade at QB, though expectations should be tempered, as Foles' numbers will likely see a dip now that he is away from Philly's up-tempo system. Keep an eye on the RB situation as we get closer to the start of the season. If Gurley suffers a setback or re-injures his ACL, Mason would get a boost in value.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Russell Wilson, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, D/ST
Lynch continues to prove the doubters, myself included, wrong, as he keeps racking up the carries, taking the hits, but producing on this team. Lynch finished as the third best fantasy RB last year, putting up 1306 rushing yards and 17 total TDs. He was the workhorse for this entire offense week in and week out as he received 20+ carries eight times last year. There doesn't seem to be any plans to cut back on his carries, so he should be productive once again, so long as his body can hold up to the volume of punishment it takes each year. While it is true that newly acquired tight end Jimmy Graham might take some of his short yardage TDs, I still think Lynch will see enough volume to make him a top 10 RB once again.
Wilson is my dark horse pick for overall fantasy MVP this season. He finished third among QBs in fantasy scoring last year, mostly due to his QB-leading 849 rushing yards (210 more rushing yards than second place rushing QB Colin Kaepernick). His 20 passing TDs won't blow anyone away, but he was careful with the football and only threw seven interceptions. Andrew Luck had seven interceptions by Week 7 last year. The addition of a huge target like Graham should help him improve on his passing yardage and TD totals from previous years. The only negative with Wilson is that he can be wildly inconsistent at times. Twice last year, he had 10 point performances sandwiched in between 28+ performances. I think the addition of Graham and another year of experience (he's still only in his 4th year in the league) will make Wilson a top three QB, and possible overall point leader by the end of the season.
While being traded from New Orleans to Seattle does take Graham out of a passing friendly offense, it does not change the fact that he is a 6'7", 265 pound matchup nightmare. He can box defenders out and turn a poorly thrown ball into a TD grab. While his yardage and targets might see a slight drop, I expect his double digit TDs to remain, even in Seattle. He'll be Wilson's favorite target in the red zone, and should be helped out with defenses having to worry about Lynch as well. Barring the Seahawks completely ignoring Graham in the red zone, I expect another top three TE season from Graham.
The Seahawks' D/ST is probably the safest D/ST unit you can take, and will likely be the first one taken in most drafts. This unit actually struggled to start 2014, including an unfathomable -1 performance in San Diego in Week 2, but turned it around halfway through the season. From Week 8 to the end of the season, they only had two single digit fantasy point games, and completely shut down offenses. They also play in a division that is lacking offensive firepower. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner all return, while Kam Chancellor is in the midst of a holdout. Once Chancellor settles and returns to the field, the Legion of Boom and this D/ST unit should terrorize opposing teams and fantasy owners once again in 2015.
Bust: None
I expect all four of the studs listed above to either match or outperform their draft position.
Sleeper: Tyler Lockett, WR
Lockett, a rookie out of Kansas State, is similar to guys like Brandin Cooks and Percy Harvin in that he is quicker than he is fast, and can get early separation off the line of scrimmage, despite his diminutive size (5'11", 182 lbs.). I would advise Lockett only for those of you in PPR leagues, as he likely won't stretch the field or put up big yardage totals, but can be a nice target for Wilson on quick hitting passes in hopes that Lockett can rack up big yards after the catch. He was Kansas State's most explosive weapon last year, including being utilized as a punt and kick returner. While the run oriented Seahawk offense will likely pull down his numbers, I expect Lockett to make a name for himself this year. Keep an eye on Lockett to see how far he climbs in the depth chart by the end of training camp.
Bottom Line
This team was one bad decision away from winning another Super Bowl title, and their 2015 squad is looking stacked once again. While the defense gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, I think that Seattle's offense will be one to fear this season. Acquiring Jimmy Graham gives this team the aerial threat that they have been trying to find since drafting Russell Wilson, while teams still have to worry about Lynch running it down their throats. Expect this Seahawk team to be one of the best in the NFL, and a good source of fantasy points on both sides of the ball.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: None
Any success that the Cardinals hope to have on offense revolves around the health of Carson Palmer. When Palmer was healthy last year, this offense was actually fairly explosive, but turned absolutely dreadful once Palmer went down. Michael Floyd might be considered a stud if Palmer's health was guaranteed.
Bust: Andre Ellington, RB
Ellington was actually my sleeper last year because it wouldn't cost you that much and I knew he would put up great PPR numbers. He was the Cardinals' lead back and hauled in 46 passes in 12 games before breaking down and succumbing to injuries to end the year. Unlike last year, Ellington will cost you about a fourth or fifth round pick, which is too high for this kind of player. He is undersized and likely won't get a lot, if any, goal line looks down in the red zone. In 12 games last year, he failed to top the 100 yard mark despite receiving 15+ carries nine times. That's partly his fault, but also the fault of their awful offensive line. They spent their first round pick on offensive tackle DJ Humphries, but it will take more than that to make this line effective. Guys like CJ Spiller and Shane Vereen are going later than Ellington, despite playing the same pass catching role and putting up similar numbers. The receptions could be there, but there won't be much else.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
As I mentioned above, this offense can thrive if Palmer stays healthy. Palmer only played in five complete games last season, but he went over 300 yards twice and had at least two TDs in every complete game he played. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are still a good WR duo on the outside, and Ellington has proven to be a capable pass catcher. They even got Palmer's old teammate from Cincinnati, Jermaine Gresham, to come be their tight end. Head coach Bruce Arians has always had a downfield offense, and Palmer has never been one to shy away from launching the ball deep. The pieces are there for Palmer to be successful as long as he can stay on the field. I would certainly have another QB on my roster if Palmer were to go down, but he is a legitimate fantasy starter while healthy. If you take a suspended Tom Brady, having Palmer healthy at the start of the season would be a great QB while Brady serves his suspension.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals have been looking for a consistent answer at QB since Kurt Warner left, and Palmer is the closest thing they have. The skill position players can be successful if he is at QB, but will wind up on a lot of waiver wires if he were to go down. Their defense had its moments last year, but also turned in four performances of zero points or less. While the Cards' D/ST should be viewed as a good matchup play, just keep in mind that they have to face the Vikings, Eagles, and Packers in Weeks 14, 15, and 16, respectively. I doubt many fantasy football playoff teams will be starting this D/ST in the playoffs this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Anquan Boldin
Boldin, one of the few 49ers that actually returns to the team this season, continues to simply be a steady source of yards and receptions. Despite a down year from QB Colin Kaepernick and the offense as a whole, Boldin still managed to go over 1,000 yards and finished as the 22nd ranked WR for fantasy. PPR owners should also be excited about Boldin as he finished with the 15th most receptions among WRs, ahead of flashier guys like TY Hilton and Kelvin Benjamin. Boldin won't look like a sexy pick up on draft day, but his numbers will speak for themselves by the end of the year. Expect another WR2/FLEX season from Boldin.
Bust: Carlos Hyde, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because everyone did so terrible last season, but I'll go with Hyde because he is getting a lot of hype with Frank Gore now in Indianapolis. The offensive line, once a strength of this team, lost Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis this offseason. Hyde has very little game experience, and was less than impressive with his touches last season. He'll start the year as the default number one RB, but spending a third round pick on him is ridiculous. No one knows what this offense will look like under new head coach Jim Tomsula, and I'm not convinced that the Niners don't go with a committee at RB with Hyde and rookie Mike Davis. The opportunity is obviously there for Hyde, but the price is way too steep for an unproven back with an unproven coach on a team with question marks all over the field.
Sleeper: Colin Kaepernick, QB
After back to back years in 2012-13 of being a fantasy darling, Kaepernick took a step back in 2014. He finished with two less passing TDs than in 2013, two more interceptions than in 2013, and three less rushing TDs than in 2013. The good news is that even in the midst of a terrible season, not everything was bad. Kaepernick still managed to set career highs in passing yards and rushing yards, while playing in all 16 games. While I don't think he becomes a top five QB, I think that it is not out of the question for him to regain top 12 or even 10 status. The Niners picked up WR Torrey Smith and RB Reggie Bush in the offseason to help in the passing game, while Boldin and TE Vernon Davis return to the Niners. Kaepernick's speed is still there and his passing has slowly, but surely improved throughout his career. He's currently ranked in the 15-18 area, and I have no doubt that he will outperform that ranking easily. You'll be able to draft him as a backup, and he might turn into your starter.
Bottom Line
Who knows? This team had so much movement in the offseason, I'm not sure if anyone knows how to judge this team from a real life or fantasy perspective. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished in last place. Boldin is the only Niner that I would feel safe about having, though I think Kaepernick and Reggie Bush (in PPR leagues) could provide some value during the season.
Matty O
Studs: Defense/Special Teams
This unit was highly touted at the start of last season as well, but likely left owners frustrated by the middle of the year. In the Rams' first seven games, this unit gave up 30+ points five times and only registered eight turnovers. After Week 8, however, this unit racked up 17 turnovers, three TDs, and recorded back to back shutouts in Weeks 13 and 14. They finished as the ninth ranked fantasy unit at the end of 2014, and I expect them to improve upon that this year. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league, led by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, and should be able to get plenty of pressure on QBs this season. They do have the explosive Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers on their schedule this year, but I expect this unit to finish, at worst, in the top 10 fantasy D/ST, and likely finish as a top five unit.
Bust: Todd Gurley, RB
I don't understand all the hype that Gurley is getting. His career at Georgia was productive, there's no denying that, but he's coming off an ACL injury, is likely to miss training camp and/or preseason reps, and isn't guaranteed the starting RB job anyways. While I think Gurley could have a productive career long term, I think people are simply writing off Tre Mason, as though Mason did nothing last year. Mason proved to be the lone bright spot for the Rams last year once he wrestled the starting job away from Zac Stacy. Mason averaged 4.3 yards per carry and finished with five total TDs. He had two 100+ yard games, all while facing a gauntlet of tough run defenses (Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, Washington, Denver). The Rams used three of their first five draft picks on offensive line, which should help to shore up a unit that was rather poor last season. Gurley is currently ranked, and being drafted, ahead of Mason, which I think is absurd. Mason is established in this offense and has proved that he can play in this league. I'd rather have him than an unproven, coming-off-an-ACL rookie.
Sleeper: Brian Quick, WR
Quick was having a reasonably productive year, by St. Louis Ram standards, until he went down with a season ending injury in Week 8 last year. He's healed up, and enters 2015 as the Rams' unquestioned number one WR. Even though the Rams are a run first team, number one WRs on any team is always an attractive fantasy asset, purely because of the targets he will get. Quick also gets to catch footballs from Nick Foles this season, which is certainly an upgrade from Austin Davis. Playing in the NFC West and having to face Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman twice a year certainly is a bit of a hindrance, but I think Quick could be a nice bye week fill in or even a FLEX play in PPR leagues. You'll be able to get Quick late, or even off of waivers if he goes undrafted, so there's hardly any risk in taking a chance on him.
Bottom Line
As has been the case in recent years, there's not too much to get excited about from a fantasy perspective with the Rams. They'll likely rely on ball control and their solid defense to win games, and will try to avoid high scoring shootouts. Nick Foles should be considered an upgrade at QB, though expectations should be tempered, as Foles' numbers will likely see a dip now that he is away from Philly's up-tempo system. Keep an eye on the RB situation as we get closer to the start of the season. If Gurley suffers a setback or re-injures his ACL, Mason would get a boost in value.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Russell Wilson, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, D/ST
Lynch continues to prove the doubters, myself included, wrong, as he keeps racking up the carries, taking the hits, but producing on this team. Lynch finished as the third best fantasy RB last year, putting up 1306 rushing yards and 17 total TDs. He was the workhorse for this entire offense week in and week out as he received 20+ carries eight times last year. There doesn't seem to be any plans to cut back on his carries, so he should be productive once again, so long as his body can hold up to the volume of punishment it takes each year. While it is true that newly acquired tight end Jimmy Graham might take some of his short yardage TDs, I still think Lynch will see enough volume to make him a top 10 RB once again.
Wilson is my dark horse pick for overall fantasy MVP this season. He finished third among QBs in fantasy scoring last year, mostly due to his QB-leading 849 rushing yards (210 more rushing yards than second place rushing QB Colin Kaepernick). His 20 passing TDs won't blow anyone away, but he was careful with the football and only threw seven interceptions. Andrew Luck had seven interceptions by Week 7 last year. The addition of a huge target like Graham should help him improve on his passing yardage and TD totals from previous years. The only negative with Wilson is that he can be wildly inconsistent at times. Twice last year, he had 10 point performances sandwiched in between 28+ performances. I think the addition of Graham and another year of experience (he's still only in his 4th year in the league) will make Wilson a top three QB, and possible overall point leader by the end of the season.
While being traded from New Orleans to Seattle does take Graham out of a passing friendly offense, it does not change the fact that he is a 6'7", 265 pound matchup nightmare. He can box defenders out and turn a poorly thrown ball into a TD grab. While his yardage and targets might see a slight drop, I expect his double digit TDs to remain, even in Seattle. He'll be Wilson's favorite target in the red zone, and should be helped out with defenses having to worry about Lynch as well. Barring the Seahawks completely ignoring Graham in the red zone, I expect another top three TE season from Graham.
The Seahawks' D/ST is probably the safest D/ST unit you can take, and will likely be the first one taken in most drafts. This unit actually struggled to start 2014, including an unfathomable -1 performance in San Diego in Week 2, but turned it around halfway through the season. From Week 8 to the end of the season, they only had two single digit fantasy point games, and completely shut down offenses. They also play in a division that is lacking offensive firepower. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner all return, while Kam Chancellor is in the midst of a holdout. Once Chancellor settles and returns to the field, the Legion of Boom and this D/ST unit should terrorize opposing teams and fantasy owners once again in 2015.
Bust: None
I expect all four of the studs listed above to either match or outperform their draft position.
Sleeper: Tyler Lockett, WR
Lockett, a rookie out of Kansas State, is similar to guys like Brandin Cooks and Percy Harvin in that he is quicker than he is fast, and can get early separation off the line of scrimmage, despite his diminutive size (5'11", 182 lbs.). I would advise Lockett only for those of you in PPR leagues, as he likely won't stretch the field or put up big yardage totals, but can be a nice target for Wilson on quick hitting passes in hopes that Lockett can rack up big yards after the catch. He was Kansas State's most explosive weapon last year, including being utilized as a punt and kick returner. While the run oriented Seahawk offense will likely pull down his numbers, I expect Lockett to make a name for himself this year. Keep an eye on Lockett to see how far he climbs in the depth chart by the end of training camp.
Bottom Line
This team was one bad decision away from winning another Super Bowl title, and their 2015 squad is looking stacked once again. While the defense gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, I think that Seattle's offense will be one to fear this season. Acquiring Jimmy Graham gives this team the aerial threat that they have been trying to find since drafting Russell Wilson, while teams still have to worry about Lynch running it down their throats. Expect this Seahawk team to be one of the best in the NFL, and a good source of fantasy points on both sides of the ball.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: None
Any success that the Cardinals hope to have on offense revolves around the health of Carson Palmer. When Palmer was healthy last year, this offense was actually fairly explosive, but turned absolutely dreadful once Palmer went down. Michael Floyd might be considered a stud if Palmer's health was guaranteed.
Bust: Andre Ellington, RB
Ellington was actually my sleeper last year because it wouldn't cost you that much and I knew he would put up great PPR numbers. He was the Cardinals' lead back and hauled in 46 passes in 12 games before breaking down and succumbing to injuries to end the year. Unlike last year, Ellington will cost you about a fourth or fifth round pick, which is too high for this kind of player. He is undersized and likely won't get a lot, if any, goal line looks down in the red zone. In 12 games last year, he failed to top the 100 yard mark despite receiving 15+ carries nine times. That's partly his fault, but also the fault of their awful offensive line. They spent their first round pick on offensive tackle DJ Humphries, but it will take more than that to make this line effective. Guys like CJ Spiller and Shane Vereen are going later than Ellington, despite playing the same pass catching role and putting up similar numbers. The receptions could be there, but there won't be much else.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
As I mentioned above, this offense can thrive if Palmer stays healthy. Palmer only played in five complete games last season, but he went over 300 yards twice and had at least two TDs in every complete game he played. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are still a good WR duo on the outside, and Ellington has proven to be a capable pass catcher. They even got Palmer's old teammate from Cincinnati, Jermaine Gresham, to come be their tight end. Head coach Bruce Arians has always had a downfield offense, and Palmer has never been one to shy away from launching the ball deep. The pieces are there for Palmer to be successful as long as he can stay on the field. I would certainly have another QB on my roster if Palmer were to go down, but he is a legitimate fantasy starter while healthy. If you take a suspended Tom Brady, having Palmer healthy at the start of the season would be a great QB while Brady serves his suspension.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals have been looking for a consistent answer at QB since Kurt Warner left, and Palmer is the closest thing they have. The skill position players can be successful if he is at QB, but will wind up on a lot of waiver wires if he were to go down. Their defense had its moments last year, but also turned in four performances of zero points or less. While the Cards' D/ST should be viewed as a good matchup play, just keep in mind that they have to face the Vikings, Eagles, and Packers in Weeks 14, 15, and 16, respectively. I doubt many fantasy football playoff teams will be starting this D/ST in the playoffs this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Anquan Boldin
Boldin, one of the few 49ers that actually returns to the team this season, continues to simply be a steady source of yards and receptions. Despite a down year from QB Colin Kaepernick and the offense as a whole, Boldin still managed to go over 1,000 yards and finished as the 22nd ranked WR for fantasy. PPR owners should also be excited about Boldin as he finished with the 15th most receptions among WRs, ahead of flashier guys like TY Hilton and Kelvin Benjamin. Boldin won't look like a sexy pick up on draft day, but his numbers will speak for themselves by the end of the year. Expect another WR2/FLEX season from Boldin.
Bust: Carlos Hyde, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because everyone did so terrible last season, but I'll go with Hyde because he is getting a lot of hype with Frank Gore now in Indianapolis. The offensive line, once a strength of this team, lost Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis this offseason. Hyde has very little game experience, and was less than impressive with his touches last season. He'll start the year as the default number one RB, but spending a third round pick on him is ridiculous. No one knows what this offense will look like under new head coach Jim Tomsula, and I'm not convinced that the Niners don't go with a committee at RB with Hyde and rookie Mike Davis. The opportunity is obviously there for Hyde, but the price is way too steep for an unproven back with an unproven coach on a team with question marks all over the field.
Sleeper: Colin Kaepernick, QB
After back to back years in 2012-13 of being a fantasy darling, Kaepernick took a step back in 2014. He finished with two less passing TDs than in 2013, two more interceptions than in 2013, and three less rushing TDs than in 2013. The good news is that even in the midst of a terrible season, not everything was bad. Kaepernick still managed to set career highs in passing yards and rushing yards, while playing in all 16 games. While I don't think he becomes a top five QB, I think that it is not out of the question for him to regain top 12 or even 10 status. The Niners picked up WR Torrey Smith and RB Reggie Bush in the offseason to help in the passing game, while Boldin and TE Vernon Davis return to the Niners. Kaepernick's speed is still there and his passing has slowly, but surely improved throughout his career. He's currently ranked in the 15-18 area, and I have no doubt that he will outperform that ranking easily. You'll be able to draft him as a backup, and he might turn into your starter.
Bottom Line
Who knows? This team had so much movement in the offseason, I'm not sure if anyone knows how to judge this team from a real life or fantasy perspective. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished in last place. Boldin is the only Niner that I would feel safe about having, though I think Kaepernick and Reggie Bush (in PPR leagues) could provide some value during the season.
Matty O
Saturday, August 1, 2015
2015 Fantasy Draft Strategy
August has begun, training camps are open, and it's time to start talking fantasy football. No matter what game you play, whether it's fantasy football, chess, or poker, it's always a good idea to have a good strategy in mind before the game begins. Since your fantasy draft marks the start of your fantasy football season, as well as providing the building blocks for a successful team, it is important to know what you're doing and how to execute your draft strategy. Like in any game, adjustments may need to be made on the fly, like if someone takes a player you really needed/wanted, but a general outline of how to attack is always good to have. Below, I will cover some general things to keep in mind as you approach your draft, as well as a position by position breakdown of how I go about drafting certain players.
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? A points per reception (PPR) league? Do you have to draft individual defensive players? Do you have to select two QBs? Depending on what your league type is, will effect how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. Running backs like Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell, and Shane Vereen all get a boost in PPR leagues because of their inflated reception numbers (102, 83, and 52 receptions, respectively). Two QB leagues place a premium on QBs since there are only 32 starters in any given week, and less than half of those QBs that turn out to be fantasy threats. Be aware of the players that have increased value because of your league rules, and which big names can be passed over because they do not offer the statistical numbers that other, lesser known players do.
Same Team Stacking
Normally, if I have a team's starting QB, I won't have the team's starting RB. A QB and WR combo is less risky, but can still burn you. You can only score so many points in an NFL game, so when you stack players that are on the same team, you sometimes take production away from one of your own players. For instance, if you stack your team with Packers and wind up with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy, every time Lacy scores a rushing TD, that is a scoring opportunity that your own player just took away from Rodgers and Nelson. Conversely, if Rodgers hooks up with Randall Cobb for a passing TD, then that is potential points taken away from Nelson and Lacy. I'm not saying I'm completely against it, but there is certainly risk involved. If that team happens to have a bad week, or is playing in 30 mph winds, then all of your positions with players from that team will under perform that week. Of course, if they do well collectively, then you could be set at all those positions as well. With that in mind, there are only a handful of teams that I would recommend stacking QB, RB, WR, and/or TE. Teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Broncos are probably the safest ones to stack with as they all have established QBs and playmakers at multiple positions.
Bye Week Stacking
Bye week stacking is essentially drafting your starters so that all of them have the same bye week. You're basically forfeiting that bye week, but also setting yourself up so that you are at full strength for the rest of the bye weeks. I've seen mixed results with this strategy, but I personally advise against it. By the time we get to the bye week part of the year, there are sure to be injuries, poor performances, and defenses that come out of nowhere that present tough matchups for your players. There's also no guarantee that your opponent won't be at full strength when you face him/her. Sure, they might have Andrew Luck on a bye, but if they can get Eli Manning off waivers who is facing the Cowboys, is there really going to be any drop off? Sometimes those bye weeks can sting you, but normally you can either find a decent replacement, or find a favorable matchup to exploit.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starter in case he gets injured/suspended. While it takes up a roster spot, and you might go a whole year without using him, the risk of not having him and therefore not having a viable replacement for your starter, is too great. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that not every player with an injury history needs to be handcuffed. You still have to expect your handcuff to perform if the starter goes down, otherwise it is pointless to use up a roster spot. For instance, it would make sense to handcuff a Cowboy or Raven RB because their offensive lines are rock solid and the handcuff would likely experience some sort of success. On the other hand, handcuffing a Raider or Falcon RB might not be the best idea because their lines are weaker and less likely to produce open lanes for that player. Research some of the top players and their injury history (I'll include some in my division by division breakdowns) and know which ones need to be covered and handcuffed.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules matched up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. I feel like leagues and teams can get ruined a bit if you have a draft in early/mid-August, only to have a team's starting RB1 get injured in a meaningless preseason game. There are things the commissioner can do to make this easier, like giving the owner first dibs on the injured player's backup, but it is easier if all teams head into a draft knowing what that player's situation is. Sometimes position battles and suspension rulings also go right down to the wire, and it is nice as an owner in a league to have the clearest picture for every player heading into your draft. Again, definitely not easy to accomplish, particularly with Labor Day Weekend right before the start of the NFL season, but just something for commissioners to keep in mind.
Position By Position Strategy
Quarterback
QB seems to be the most clear position for fantasy this year. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck have clearly distinguished themselves as the two best fantasy options, with guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson in the next tier. Barring an injunction, even the Tom Brady situation is clear, as we know he'll miss the first four games of the Patriots' season and will, without a doubt, retake his starting job in Week 6, regardless of how well Jimmy Garoppolo does. There are some lower ranked guys that I think could emerge (Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater), but I feel like everyone is ranked fairly reasonably for QBs.
With that in mind, I would suggest either snagging Luck or Rodgers early, or waiting it out to draft a QB. Most leagues only require one QB to start, and most leagues have 12 or less owners. There are at least that many decent QBs in the NFL, and once you get past the Brees and Manning tier, you're basically splitting hairs about who to take because the difference between each player is so small. You could also choose to draft two mediocre QBs and simply plug and play them into matchups that favor that QB. The intriguing question in all leagues at the QB position will be how far Brady will fall if the four game suspension holds up. Despite a rough start to the year, including three single digit fantasy performances in his first four games, Brady managed to finish eighth in fantasy scoring at the end of the year. I don't think it is out of the question to snag Brady, and draft an Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer type-QB late, to hold down the fort while Brady is suspended.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 QBs That Will Finish Top 10: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer
Running Back
Year after year, RB becomes harder to predict from a fantasy perspective. This year, it is absolutely ludicrous. You have backs that are suspended (Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount), backs that are coming back from injury/suspension (Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson), backs that switched to new teams (DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore), backs that have opportunity because of those switches (Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Carlos Hyde), and rookie backs getting a lot of hype (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon). Hopefully things become clearer by the time training camps end, but it looks like drafting solid RBs will once again be a shot in the dark.
If you have a pick at the top of the first round, it is expected and recommended that you take a RB. While there are certainly a lot of questions throughout the draft with RBs, there are guys like Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy that I would consider "safe." Also, for those of you in PPR leagues, keep in mind that valuable RB2s and FLEX RBs can be found later in drafts because guys like Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles don't put up solid rushing yard numbers, but catch plenty of balls to rack up points for their receptions. I would say that once you get your starters established (not counting DEF and K), I would start to stockpile RBs. Even if they aren't the starter or their situation looks sort of bleak, you might as well take a chance on them, as players like Justin Forsett and CJ Anderson have come out of nowhere to take advantage of opportunities presented to them throughout the season. You're really just looking for a lottery ticket at that point, so you might as well draft as many as you can. Don't forget to handcuff!
Player(s) Outside Top 20 RBs That Will Finish Top 20: Tre Mason, TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Joseph Randle
Wide Receiver
The top of this WR fantasy class should have owners salivating. Antonio Brown, you could argue, could go number one in PPR leagues. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant got paid and are on elite offenses. Julio Jones is in a contract year, as is Alshon Jeffery, who no longer has to compete with Brandon Marshall for catches. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb get to play with Aaron Rodgers, and not even Eli Manning could mess up a monster second half of last year for Odell Beckham Jr. AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, and Calvin Johnson are looking to bounce back from injury plagued 2014s. Sophomore WRs Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews are looking to improve on their rookie years, while Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman are looking to make impacts in theirs.
For PPR leagues, or leagues that require three WRs instead of two WRs and a FLEX, it is important to get elite WRs. While the points that WRs put up may be more volatile from week to week, they are also more likely to reach the 30 and 40 point marks. Having a guy like Antonio Brown who consistently gets double digit targets week in and week out, gives you a substantial advantage over the other owners in your league. Just like with RBs, also keep in mind that there are WRs that specialize in racking up receptions, but not having huge yardage totals. Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are two guys that finished under 1,000 yards, but had 92 and 84 receptions, respectively. Most sites rank based on standard leagues, so keep that in mind if you draft on ESPN.com or NFL.com. You might have to dig deep to find the reception machines that you want.
WR is usually the easiest position to find quality players late in drafts. While some teams are moving more towards a two back committee at RB, most teams have at least two, if not three, attractive WR options. This gives owners a large pool to choose from if you miss out on the elite crop of WR talent. It has become even easier to find talent late in recent years, as WRs seem to be more NFL ready and are getting more opportunities as rookies. Rookies can usually be snagged later in drafts because they come with the "unproven" tag, but none of them will lack the "talent" tag.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 WRs That Will Finish Top 30: Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, Breshad Perriman
Tight End
Tight end, like QB, has fairly clear tiers of where different players belong. Unlike QB, however, which has multiple tiers, TE has the elite guys, then everyone else. Normally, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the only two in the top tier, but I'll include Greg Olsen this year as well. Olsen, one of my better Sleeper calls last year, had a monster 2014 as he finished with the third most receptions among TEs, the fourth most targets among TEs, and was one of only two TEs (Gronk being the other), that eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. With Antonio Gates being suspended to start the year, that leaves everyone else after Olsen in a mix of either unproven players, or those with up-in-the-air circumstances. For example, Julius Thomas was a scoring machine while he was with the Broncos and Peyton Manning, but now must transition to a far less explosive offense with the Jags and Blake Bortles. My advice stays the same as it has been for this position; either snag one of the top three or wait to get your TE. The top three or four TEs usually separate themselves from the pack, while the rest don't have a significant difference between their overall numbers over a 16 game season. There was also a lot of TE movement this offseason, so I expect some lower drafted or undrafted guys to prove very valuable to fantasy teams this year.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 TEs That Will Finish Top 10: Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Maxx Williams
Defense/Special Teams
D/ST is, by far, the hardest position to predict on a year to year basis. Matchups, lucky bounces, and total D/ST TDs are the most significant factors in a D/ST unit's score. D/ST also, in my opinion, has the biggest gap between fantasy and real life quality. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles finished second in D/ST scoring last season, trailing only the Buffalo Bills. Their fantasy score, however, was inflated due to their impossible-to-repeat 11 TDs. In real life, however, they finished 28th in total yards allowed and 22nd in points per game allowed. This is what makes D/ST so hard to predict because if you have a ball-hawking and TD scoring defense, they can still give up a lot of yards and points, but be valuable in fantasy. With that in mind, I prefer waiting on defense simply because it is so hard to predict. More often than not, a defense viewed as sub-par will end up emerging (see: Buffalo Bills last year). If I had to list a top tier of defenses, I would say that it would include Seattle, Houston, St. Louis, Buffalo, and the New York Jets.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 D/STs That Will Finish Top 10: Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers
Kicker
Normally, I would just say to get one in the last round and be done with it, but I would change that up this year due to the new extra point rule and possibly draft my kicker sooner than the last round. The new rule pushes extra points back to the 15 yard line, while two point conversions stay at the two yard line. I would encourage earlier drafting of kickers, not because of horrible extra point misses (the change in yardage isn't too terrible for most NFL kickers), but rather because of the decreased opportunities. I think there will be certain teams, particularly if their kicker struggles early in the year, that will just decide to go for two from the two yard line most of the time. I think the Eagles will be one of those teams as Chip Kelly has loved going for two, going all the way back to his Oregon days (interesting to note that the Eagles' proposal for this rule change had extra points from the 15 yard line, but two point conversions from the one). While the Eagles are an explosive offense, their kicker might not get a lot of opportunities in any given game, because they just keep going for two.
Also, even though I mentioned that the change in yardage isn't that big of a deal for NFL kickers, it will be if there is bad weather, particularly high winds. Therefore, grabbing a kicker that plays his home games indoors will be of the utmost importance. As we get closer to the fantasy playoffs, it will be even more important to see where your kicker will be playing in Weeks 14, 15, and 16. Chicago and Green Bay are not places that you want to see. Keep in mind that the AFC South has two teams that play indoors while the other two are in Tennessee and Jacksonville, and the NFC South also has two teams that play indoors while the other two play in Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 Ks That Will Finish Top 10: Randy Bullock, Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein
Division by division breakdowns coming in the following weeks!
Matty O
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? A points per reception (PPR) league? Do you have to draft individual defensive players? Do you have to select two QBs? Depending on what your league type is, will effect how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. Running backs like Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell, and Shane Vereen all get a boost in PPR leagues because of their inflated reception numbers (102, 83, and 52 receptions, respectively). Two QB leagues place a premium on QBs since there are only 32 starters in any given week, and less than half of those QBs that turn out to be fantasy threats. Be aware of the players that have increased value because of your league rules, and which big names can be passed over because they do not offer the statistical numbers that other, lesser known players do.
Same Team Stacking
Normally, if I have a team's starting QB, I won't have the team's starting RB. A QB and WR combo is less risky, but can still burn you. You can only score so many points in an NFL game, so when you stack players that are on the same team, you sometimes take production away from one of your own players. For instance, if you stack your team with Packers and wind up with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy, every time Lacy scores a rushing TD, that is a scoring opportunity that your own player just took away from Rodgers and Nelson. Conversely, if Rodgers hooks up with Randall Cobb for a passing TD, then that is potential points taken away from Nelson and Lacy. I'm not saying I'm completely against it, but there is certainly risk involved. If that team happens to have a bad week, or is playing in 30 mph winds, then all of your positions with players from that team will under perform that week. Of course, if they do well collectively, then you could be set at all those positions as well. With that in mind, there are only a handful of teams that I would recommend stacking QB, RB, WR, and/or TE. Teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Broncos are probably the safest ones to stack with as they all have established QBs and playmakers at multiple positions.
Bye Week Stacking
Bye week stacking is essentially drafting your starters so that all of them have the same bye week. You're basically forfeiting that bye week, but also setting yourself up so that you are at full strength for the rest of the bye weeks. I've seen mixed results with this strategy, but I personally advise against it. By the time we get to the bye week part of the year, there are sure to be injuries, poor performances, and defenses that come out of nowhere that present tough matchups for your players. There's also no guarantee that your opponent won't be at full strength when you face him/her. Sure, they might have Andrew Luck on a bye, but if they can get Eli Manning off waivers who is facing the Cowboys, is there really going to be any drop off? Sometimes those bye weeks can sting you, but normally you can either find a decent replacement, or find a favorable matchup to exploit.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starter in case he gets injured/suspended. While it takes up a roster spot, and you might go a whole year without using him, the risk of not having him and therefore not having a viable replacement for your starter, is too great. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that not every player with an injury history needs to be handcuffed. You still have to expect your handcuff to perform if the starter goes down, otherwise it is pointless to use up a roster spot. For instance, it would make sense to handcuff a Cowboy or Raven RB because their offensive lines are rock solid and the handcuff would likely experience some sort of success. On the other hand, handcuffing a Raider or Falcon RB might not be the best idea because their lines are weaker and less likely to produce open lanes for that player. Research some of the top players and their injury history (I'll include some in my division by division breakdowns) and know which ones need to be covered and handcuffed.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules matched up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. I feel like leagues and teams can get ruined a bit if you have a draft in early/mid-August, only to have a team's starting RB1 get injured in a meaningless preseason game. There are things the commissioner can do to make this easier, like giving the owner first dibs on the injured player's backup, but it is easier if all teams head into a draft knowing what that player's situation is. Sometimes position battles and suspension rulings also go right down to the wire, and it is nice as an owner in a league to have the clearest picture for every player heading into your draft. Again, definitely not easy to accomplish, particularly with Labor Day Weekend right before the start of the NFL season, but just something for commissioners to keep in mind.
Position By Position Strategy
Quarterback
QB seems to be the most clear position for fantasy this year. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck have clearly distinguished themselves as the two best fantasy options, with guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson in the next tier. Barring an injunction, even the Tom Brady situation is clear, as we know he'll miss the first four games of the Patriots' season and will, without a doubt, retake his starting job in Week 6, regardless of how well Jimmy Garoppolo does. There are some lower ranked guys that I think could emerge (Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater), but I feel like everyone is ranked fairly reasonably for QBs.
With that in mind, I would suggest either snagging Luck or Rodgers early, or waiting it out to draft a QB. Most leagues only require one QB to start, and most leagues have 12 or less owners. There are at least that many decent QBs in the NFL, and once you get past the Brees and Manning tier, you're basically splitting hairs about who to take because the difference between each player is so small. You could also choose to draft two mediocre QBs and simply plug and play them into matchups that favor that QB. The intriguing question in all leagues at the QB position will be how far Brady will fall if the four game suspension holds up. Despite a rough start to the year, including three single digit fantasy performances in his first four games, Brady managed to finish eighth in fantasy scoring at the end of the year. I don't think it is out of the question to snag Brady, and draft an Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer type-QB late, to hold down the fort while Brady is suspended.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 QBs That Will Finish Top 10: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer
Running Back
Year after year, RB becomes harder to predict from a fantasy perspective. This year, it is absolutely ludicrous. You have backs that are suspended (Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount), backs that are coming back from injury/suspension (Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson), backs that switched to new teams (DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore), backs that have opportunity because of those switches (Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Carlos Hyde), and rookie backs getting a lot of hype (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon). Hopefully things become clearer by the time training camps end, but it looks like drafting solid RBs will once again be a shot in the dark.
If you have a pick at the top of the first round, it is expected and recommended that you take a RB. While there are certainly a lot of questions throughout the draft with RBs, there are guys like Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy that I would consider "safe." Also, for those of you in PPR leagues, keep in mind that valuable RB2s and FLEX RBs can be found later in drafts because guys like Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles don't put up solid rushing yard numbers, but catch plenty of balls to rack up points for their receptions. I would say that once you get your starters established (not counting DEF and K), I would start to stockpile RBs. Even if they aren't the starter or their situation looks sort of bleak, you might as well take a chance on them, as players like Justin Forsett and CJ Anderson have come out of nowhere to take advantage of opportunities presented to them throughout the season. You're really just looking for a lottery ticket at that point, so you might as well draft as many as you can. Don't forget to handcuff!
Player(s) Outside Top 20 RBs That Will Finish Top 20: Tre Mason, TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Joseph Randle
Wide Receiver
The top of this WR fantasy class should have owners salivating. Antonio Brown, you could argue, could go number one in PPR leagues. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant got paid and are on elite offenses. Julio Jones is in a contract year, as is Alshon Jeffery, who no longer has to compete with Brandon Marshall for catches. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb get to play with Aaron Rodgers, and not even Eli Manning could mess up a monster second half of last year for Odell Beckham Jr. AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, and Calvin Johnson are looking to bounce back from injury plagued 2014s. Sophomore WRs Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews are looking to improve on their rookie years, while Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman are looking to make impacts in theirs.
For PPR leagues, or leagues that require three WRs instead of two WRs and a FLEX, it is important to get elite WRs. While the points that WRs put up may be more volatile from week to week, they are also more likely to reach the 30 and 40 point marks. Having a guy like Antonio Brown who consistently gets double digit targets week in and week out, gives you a substantial advantage over the other owners in your league. Just like with RBs, also keep in mind that there are WRs that specialize in racking up receptions, but not having huge yardage totals. Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are two guys that finished under 1,000 yards, but had 92 and 84 receptions, respectively. Most sites rank based on standard leagues, so keep that in mind if you draft on ESPN.com or NFL.com. You might have to dig deep to find the reception machines that you want.
WR is usually the easiest position to find quality players late in drafts. While some teams are moving more towards a two back committee at RB, most teams have at least two, if not three, attractive WR options. This gives owners a large pool to choose from if you miss out on the elite crop of WR talent. It has become even easier to find talent late in recent years, as WRs seem to be more NFL ready and are getting more opportunities as rookies. Rookies can usually be snagged later in drafts because they come with the "unproven" tag, but none of them will lack the "talent" tag.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 WRs That Will Finish Top 30: Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, Breshad Perriman
Tight End
Tight end, like QB, has fairly clear tiers of where different players belong. Unlike QB, however, which has multiple tiers, TE has the elite guys, then everyone else. Normally, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the only two in the top tier, but I'll include Greg Olsen this year as well. Olsen, one of my better Sleeper calls last year, had a monster 2014 as he finished with the third most receptions among TEs, the fourth most targets among TEs, and was one of only two TEs (Gronk being the other), that eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. With Antonio Gates being suspended to start the year, that leaves everyone else after Olsen in a mix of either unproven players, or those with up-in-the-air circumstances. For example, Julius Thomas was a scoring machine while he was with the Broncos and Peyton Manning, but now must transition to a far less explosive offense with the Jags and Blake Bortles. My advice stays the same as it has been for this position; either snag one of the top three or wait to get your TE. The top three or four TEs usually separate themselves from the pack, while the rest don't have a significant difference between their overall numbers over a 16 game season. There was also a lot of TE movement this offseason, so I expect some lower drafted or undrafted guys to prove very valuable to fantasy teams this year.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 TEs That Will Finish Top 10: Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Maxx Williams
Defense/Special Teams
D/ST is, by far, the hardest position to predict on a year to year basis. Matchups, lucky bounces, and total D/ST TDs are the most significant factors in a D/ST unit's score. D/ST also, in my opinion, has the biggest gap between fantasy and real life quality. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles finished second in D/ST scoring last season, trailing only the Buffalo Bills. Their fantasy score, however, was inflated due to their impossible-to-repeat 11 TDs. In real life, however, they finished 28th in total yards allowed and 22nd in points per game allowed. This is what makes D/ST so hard to predict because if you have a ball-hawking and TD scoring defense, they can still give up a lot of yards and points, but be valuable in fantasy. With that in mind, I prefer waiting on defense simply because it is so hard to predict. More often than not, a defense viewed as sub-par will end up emerging (see: Buffalo Bills last year). If I had to list a top tier of defenses, I would say that it would include Seattle, Houston, St. Louis, Buffalo, and the New York Jets.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 D/STs That Will Finish Top 10: Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers
Kicker
Normally, I would just say to get one in the last round and be done with it, but I would change that up this year due to the new extra point rule and possibly draft my kicker sooner than the last round. The new rule pushes extra points back to the 15 yard line, while two point conversions stay at the two yard line. I would encourage earlier drafting of kickers, not because of horrible extra point misses (the change in yardage isn't too terrible for most NFL kickers), but rather because of the decreased opportunities. I think there will be certain teams, particularly if their kicker struggles early in the year, that will just decide to go for two from the two yard line most of the time. I think the Eagles will be one of those teams as Chip Kelly has loved going for two, going all the way back to his Oregon days (interesting to note that the Eagles' proposal for this rule change had extra points from the 15 yard line, but two point conversions from the one). While the Eagles are an explosive offense, their kicker might not get a lot of opportunities in any given game, because they just keep going for two.
Also, even though I mentioned that the change in yardage isn't that big of a deal for NFL kickers, it will be if there is bad weather, particularly high winds. Therefore, grabbing a kicker that plays his home games indoors will be of the utmost importance. As we get closer to the fantasy playoffs, it will be even more important to see where your kicker will be playing in Weeks 14, 15, and 16. Chicago and Green Bay are not places that you want to see. Keep in mind that the AFC South has two teams that play indoors while the other two are in Tennessee and Jacksonville, and the NFC South also has two teams that play indoors while the other two play in Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 Ks That Will Finish Top 10: Randy Bullock, Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein
Division by division breakdowns coming in the following weeks!
Matty O
Monday, July 6, 2015
I Found Sports Stuff
I'm getting ready to move, which inevitably forces me to go through boxes that I haven't seen in forever and explore places that I wasn't sure existed. While doing so, I found some sports cards, newspapers, Sports Illustrated, and various photos that I'd like to share with y'all. Since Blogger doesn't really have any kind of organized album system, I set up a Flickr account and uploaded some photos of stuff I found there. Check them out and hopefully you'll get some feelings of nostalgia along the way.
Link: https://www.flickr.com/photos/134608573@N02/with/19450172686/
Matty O
Link: https://www.flickr.com/photos/134608573@N02/with/19450172686/
Matty O
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