2016 Regional Breakdown: Midwest

Participants
Virginia, Hampton, Texas Tech, Butler, Purdue, Arkansas Little Rock, Iowa State, Iona, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Utah, Fresno State, Dayton Syracuase, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State

Upset City
While it is almost a consensus that Michigan State and Virginia will meet each other in this region's final, I think the rest of this bracket is wide open.  Gonzaga, having been a dominant program for the past decade or so, now finds itself back as a double digit seed having been no worse than an eight seed the past four tournaments.  Iowa State and Purdue make for two extremely suspect four and five seeds, respectively, as the Cyclones went 5-7 down the stretch and are tied for 257th in the country in points allowed, while Purdue struggled mightily away from home, though they were impressive in the Big Ten Title Game loss.  Iona and Arkansas Little Rock, meanwhile, are potential Cinderella stories as Iona has star AJ English carrying their team, and Arkansas LR plays at a snail's pace, but only allows 59.9 points per game, good for 3rd in the country.  If there was ever a time to take a chance on a 12-13 matchup in the Round of 32, this would be the place to do so.

Virginia Hosed Again
Someone has got it out for the Cavaliers.  For the third year in a row they have a potential matchup with Michigan State in their region.  The Cavs were a two seed last year, only to have to face Michigan State, a seven seed, in the second round of the 2015 tournament.  That should have been an Elite Eight game.  Luckily for the Cavs, it will be an Elite Eight game if they meet this year.  Unluckily for the Cavs, the Spartans are better this year.  Not only will Virginia, the one seed, have to beat the Spartans, but they will have to do it in Big Ten country in Chicago, rather than a site on the east coast that would favor Virginia.  It's unfortunate that both of these teams are worthy of being a Final Four team, but only one will make it.

Wild Card:  Utah
I know it sounds weird to call a three seed a wild card, but with Virginia and MSU so heavily favored to come out of this region, you really could've picked anyone.  Utah is one of those teams that doesn't do anything exceptionally, but they really don't do anything terrible either.  In conference play, they lost to the number one seeded Oregon Ducks three times, but went 2-1 against fourth seeded Cal and beat the sixth seeded Arizona Wildcats in their only meeting this season.  Their road to get to the Sweet 16 is fairly easy where a likely matchup with Michigan State looms.  While I think they drop that game, I think they give the Spartans all they can handle, which is really all you can ask for a non-Virginia, non-Michigan State team in this region.

Winner of Region:  Virginia
The popular pick to come out of this region, and popular pick by many to win the whole thing is Michigan State, so this is going against the grain here.  Maybe I'm a sucker for defense, but I am always so impressed with how well they play on the defensive end whenever I watch them, as they rank 2nd in the nation in points per game allowed.  They always seem to hang around and it is pretty much impossible to blow them out as their largest margin of defeat in any of their seven losses was seven points.  They've answered the call against the big boys, defeating North Carolina, Miami, and Louisville all in the past month.  They've also beaten non-ACC, top seeded foes such as Villanova, Cal, and West Virginia.  The third time will be a charm for this team as the matchup with the Spartans will be a grind-it-out kind of game, but I think the Cavs make just enough plays at the end.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: East

Participants
North Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast/Fairleigh Dickinson, USC, Providence, Indiana, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Stony Brook, Notre Dame, Michigan/Tulsa, West Virginia, Stephen F. Austin, Wisconsin, Pitt, Xavier, Weber State

Blue Bloods Bracket
The East region is absolutely stacked, though slightly top heavy.  I don't see a lot of upsets happening in this region, which should create some excellent Round of 32 matchups.  Kentucky-Indiana will pit two traditional powerhouses against each other, North Carolina-Providence could be a lot closer than people think with Kris Dunn leading the Friars, and a prove-it kind of game for Xavier against a deep, slow, but methodical Wisconsin squad.  The fan bases for the teams in this region travel well, so expect to see large and loud crowds with great atmospheres.

Wild Card:  West Virginia
WVU is the wild card for this region because of their press style of play.  For those that haven't seen them play, they will full court press and trap for essentially the entire game, hoping to force opponents into bad turnovers and easy buckets.  The downside is that when they don't get those easy buckets, they can be fairly easy to beat as they are not a great shooting team.  They only have one "bad" loss (88-71 at Florida), but lost two out of three to Kansas with the lone win coming at home, and were swept by Texas during the season.  Their road is relatively easy compared to the top half of the bracket, and they have the system to go deep in the tournament.  If their press fails, however, I wouldn't be shocked to see them go out in the first round to Stephen F. Austin.

Potential Party Crasher:  Providence
As I mentioned before, and as you'll see with my picks below, it is going to be hard for any low seed to make noise in this region.  Providence in particular has a daunting draw with potential matchups against North Carolina and/or Kentucky looming.  What the Friars do have, however, is a great player in Kris Dunn, who is shaping up to be a first round NBA draft pick.  He is the floor general for Providence and led them through a difficult Big East conference, defeating Butler three times this season, and winning at Villanova.  While it is hard to see them advancing farther than the round of 32 in this region, crazier things have happened.

Winner of Region:  North Carolina
The Tar Heels have easily the most difficult road to the Final Four of any of the one seeds, but I think they can handle it.  They go eight deep, can score with anyone, and are solid defensively.  They won the regular season ACC Championship as well as the ACC tournament Championship.  That's an ACC that has seven teams in the tournament, and should have eight if Louisville were not banned from postseason play this year.  UNC should be rooting this butts off for Chattanooga and Stony Brook to pull the early round upsets, but the Tar Heels should still represent this region even if they see Indiana, Kentucky, or Xavier.

Matty O

2015 Fantasy Football Week 1: Big Deal/No Deal

What a wild Week 1 it was in the fantasy football world.  There were injuries, unexpected studs and duds, as well as predictable performances.  This article will address notable trends or things that happened in Week 1 and whether you should write it off as a Week 1 anomaly (No Deal) or take it as a sign of things to come (Big Deal).  I'll provide at least one nugget of info for each NFL team.

Arizona:  Andre Ellington hurt (Big Deal)
Ellington has struggled with injuries since coming into the league in 2012 and 2015 started with more of the same.  Reports are that Ellington strained his PCL, leaving him out 2-3 weeks.  Chris and David Johnson have a chance to take over the Cards' backfield while Ellington is out.  Ellington is shaping up as a bust already and is no sure bet to remain healthy once he returns to the field.

Atlanta:  Julio Jones' dominance (Big Deal)
Jones was absolutely unstoppable Monday Night, despite being matched up against Philly's new star corner Byron Maxwell.  He was targeted early and often and should benefit from an aging Roddy White and the Falcons showing mild success in the run game.  This is a strong start to my prediction that he will be the number one overall fantasy WR this year.

Baltimore:  Offensive ineptitude (No Deal)
The Ravens looked a mess against the Broncos in Week 1, but I expect a lot of teams to look that way against this attacking Broncos' defense this year.  I think this was just a bad way to start the year for Baltimore on the road against one of the top defenses in the league.  Luckily, they get a nice bounce back opponent in Oakland this weekend.  Look for Justin Forsett and Steve Smith to put up their normal numbers.

Buffalo:  Sammy Watkins shutout (Big Deal)
Things were already bleak for Watkins owners before Week 1 as Tyrod Taylor is not known for his arm, and head coach Rex Ryan would love to pound the football as much as possible.  Fellow WR Percy Harvin actually managed to have a good game, but he's also had flashes of greatness with the Vikings and Seahawks only to fall flat the next week.  I think Watkins has one or two good games this year, but who knows when those will take place?  Watkins was likely drafted by many as a starter, but will probably be riding the bench after a zero point performance in Week 1.

Carolina:  Greg Olsen held to one catch for 11 yards (No Deal)
Unlike Watkins, Olsen has a QB that he is comfortable with that has shown he will gladly funnel targets Olsens' way.  It just didn't happen in Week 1.  The Panthers pounded the ball against the hapless Jags, but likely will need to air it out more in this week's game against Houston.  With no other reliable passing options beyond Olsen, expect a bounce back game this week and moving forward.

Chicago:  Matt Forte's offensive involvement (Big Deal)
What a start for Forte!  There was a lot of talk in the offseason about how Forte might lose some of his fantasy value with Mark Trestman leaving, but Forte looked even better this year as he racked up 141 carries on 24 yards and finished second on the team with eight targets in the passing game.  They even split him out in the slot when they went with an empty backfield.  His usage in the Green Bay game reminded me of Le'Veon Bell last year, who just so happened to finish as the number one overall RB in fantasy in 2014.

Cincinnati:  Tyler Eifert breaks out (Big Deal)
I mentioned Eifert in my Fantasy Breakdown series as a potential sleeper, mainly because he had the TE position all to himself in 2015 with Jermaine Gresham in Arizona.  I didn't think he would have such a successful debut though.  Eifert was targeted 12 times and racked up 104 yards and two TDs in a blowout over the Raiders.  With teams focusing on AJ Green, it should leave Eifert open in the slot and down the seams.  Health permitting, Eifert could be the steal of a lot of people's drafts.

Cleveland:  Offensive ineptitude (Big Deal)
Unlike the Ravens, I don't think Cleveland will bounce back.  They looked dreadful on the offensive side of the ball.  I know the Jets are a good defense, but they are now down to Johnny Manziel as their QB.  While he did throw the only TD for the Browns of the game, he was also picked and lost two fumbles.  The running stats might be even more hilarious as QB Josh McCown managed to out rush RBs Duke Johnson and Isiah Crowell.  Looks like a long year for this team.

Dallas:  Joseph Randle out-touches Darren McFadden 19-7 (Big Deal)
The Cowboys' backfield was a complete mystery coming into this year, but it looks like we got a bit of clarity.  Randle is the lead back with McFadden picking up the scraps, while Lance Dunbar works as more of a WR than a true RB.  So long as he stays out of trouble off the field, Randle should continue to dominate touches in the Cowboy backfield, with Dunbar being a valuable player in PPR leagues if Dallas has to play from behind like they did Sunday night.

Denver:  Peyton Manning throws for 175 yards, zero TDs (Big Deal)
Maybe this is like Tom Brady from last year where he struggles early and comes on towards the end.  Unfortunately, Manning struggled at the end of last year and looked off once again on Sunday.  He was still his usual self calling plays at the line of scrimmage, but his deep ball was off, allowing the Ravens to condense their defense and put the clamps down on this offense as a whole.  While I wouldn't bench Manning, I would have another QB in mind to add to your bench just in case things don't turn around.  The Broncos go to Arrowhead this Thursday.

Detroit:  Ameer Abdullah outplays Joique Bell (Big Deal)
In the preseason, you were either on the Abdullah hype train or you weren't.  After Week 1, that train just got a whole lot fuller.  While he only got one more carry than Bell, Abdullah easily outplayed him by totaling 50 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards, and one rushing TD.  The Lions have been trying to become a more balanced team and they might finally have the RB to carry the load.  I wouldn't be surprised if Bell is phased almost completely out of the picture by the Lions' Week 9 bye.

Green Bay:  James Jones' 2 TDs (No Deal)
I could be completely off here, but I think that Jones just had his best game he will have this season, and he did it on a lot of people's benches and waiver wires.  He's still the number three WR behind Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb, both of whom were targeted more than Jones.  He might have the chemistry with Rodgers, but Adams and Cobb are more talented players.  I like both of them over the long haul.  Jones will be a TD-dependent, inconsistent option at best this season.  He could very well get shutout this week if he draws Richard Sherman.

Houston:  Backfield committee (Big Deal)
With Arian Foster injured, there was a chance for one of these Houston backs to emerge and take the starting job while he is out.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes getting almost the same number of carries.  I'm on record having said that I think Polk is the best of the bunch, but unfortunately I'm not on the coaching staff.  This backfield may be a situation to avoid until Foster's return.

Indianapolis:  Frank Gore totals 31 yards, zero TDs (No Deal)
The Colt offense struggled as a whole against the Bills, but at least Andrew Luck was able to deliver 2 TD passes and TY Hilton was able to snag seven balls for 88 yards.  Gore, the other highly drafted Colt, was hardly a factor in the game and was completely bottled up.  Everyone has been saying for years that this will be the year that Gore finally declines, but I think he'll still be okay.  Week 2 against the Jets will probably give him another dud, but he should clear up after that.  His backups Josh Robinson and Tyler Varga did little to impress in their limited action.

Jacksonville:  Allen Robinson held to one catch, 27 yards (No Deal)
Robinson had a lot of factors working against him this game.  He missed some time with a foot injury (he did return), was matched up against one of the better unknown corners in the league in Josh Norman, and was facing a Panthers team that had a running game plan in mind and held the ball for almost ten minutes more than the Jags.  Like all the Jags' players, inconsistency is to be expected, but they should be trailing in most of their games, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities to catch balls, particularly with Julius Thomas out. Robinson did still see six targets.

Kansas City:  Travis Kelce goes for 106 yards, 2 TDs (Big Deal)
Similar to Eifert of the Bengals, all Kelce needed was for the guy in front of him to go away.  Limited by Anthony Fasano's presence last year, Kelce exploded to start 2015 as the Chiefs' main TE and passing weapon.  He was consistently open and was an easy target for Alex Smith.  While the Chiefs still can't get a WR in the end zone, expect Kelce to many times this season.

Miami:  Offense struggles vs Redskins (No Deal)
This one is no deal, but with a bit of nervousness.  I can understand the Dolphins struggling in the run game as Washington is stout in that category, but Ryan Tannehill should have carved up that secondary.  While he was efficient, the Dolphins only mustered 10 offensive points and Tannehill threw for only 226 yards.  That was good for 17th among Week 1 QBs, behind Brian Hoyer who didn't even finish the game.  They get a break this week playing Jacksonville, but things could get ugly in Weeks 3 and 4 as the Bills and Jets come to town.

Minnesota:  Adrian Peterson flops in return to field (No Deal)
For starters, I was absolutely shocked that Minnesota went with passing plays on their first possession leading to a three and out.  Secondly, I don't think anyone expected the 49ers' defense to be that good this year.  They not only ruined AP's night, but they made Bridgewater look absolutely lost out there.  AP lined up in the shotgun a lot, which is not his style, so hopefully the Vikings go with bigger sets in the future.  Just give him the ball, let the defense stack the box, and let him rumble.

New England:  Dion Lewis gets 19 touches (Big Deal)
Obviously part of Lewis' usage was due to Legarrette Blount being suspended, but I still think Lewis has established himself in the Shane Vereen receiving RB role.  He looked quick and decisive and caught four of his five targets for 51 yards.  The Pats' backfield will always be opponent dependent, but when they play teams with stout defensive fronts (Jets, Bills), I expect Lewis to deliver, particularly in PPR leagues.

New Orleans:  Mark Ingram catches eight balls for 98 yards (No Deal)
Ingram owners might take this as a great sign, but keep in mind that CJ Spiller was out this game and has a chance to come back in Week 2.  He will be the unquestioned featured back in the passing game.  Ingram will continue to get his carries, but don't treat Ingram as some kind of PPR maven all of a sudden.  Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston also had down games, which I don't expect to happen often.  Hope you enjoyed the Ingram PPR points while they lasted.

New York Giants:  Odell Beckham Jr catches five passes for 44 yards (No Deal)
Beckham, a popular dark horse to finish as the number one overall WR this year, struggled in his 2015 debut.  The Cowboys constantly were rolling safeties over the top of him, preventing any long, big plays.  I wouldn't be too worried though as he was still targeted a team high eight times.  Division rivals know each other well, so I expect him to have a bounce back game in an out of division matchup against the Falcons this week.

New York Jets:  Chris Ivory is the Jets' workhorse (Big Deal)
Ivory mashed the Browns on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, totaling 90 yards and two rushing TDs.  He probably would have had more if the game hadn't gotten out of hand and the Jets letting Bilal Powell finish out of the fourth quarter.  Health will always be a concern for Ivory, but he should see 20+ carries weekly in the Jets' backfield.  Feel free to upgrade him to a RB1, particularly against the Colts this coming Monday Night.

Oakland:  Amari Cooper doesn't live up to hype (Big Deal)
I still think Cooper is a talented player, but the team situation that he is in is terrible for his value.  Derek Carr was less than impressive before he got injured, and Matt McGloin did his damage when the game was well out of reach.  Cooper also has to compete with Michael Crabtree for targets as Cooper only got one more target than Crabtree and the same number of catches (5).  Cooper will be matched up against top corners week in and week out and still has to face Jimmy Smith, Joe Haden, Darrelle Revis, and Chris Harris (twice).  He'll have good weeks in plus matchups, but he'll have less good performances than expected by those that took a chance on the rookie.

Philadelphia:  Eagles' run game sputters (No Deal)
Despite the perception of this high flying, up tempo attack, Chip Kelly's offense is really built around the run game.  They were unable to establish the line of scrimmage, limiting DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to 13 yards combined.  In fact, it was Darren Sproles who stole the show carrying the football as he toted it five times for 50 yards.  I think the Eagles will make more of a commitment to the run in the weeks to come, though there is some concern that their defense will put them in positions where they have to play catch up.  Bradford threw the ball a ridiculous 52 times on Monday Night.  I don't expect him to come close to that many attempts for the rest of the season.

Pittsburgh:  Big Ben throws for 351, one interception, one garbage time TD (No Deal/Big Deal)
It's no deal in the sense that I think he will improve upon these numbers, but it is a big deal if you bought into the idea that the Steelers would be able to throw the ball all over the place like last year and Big Ben would be a top five QB.  They were without Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, but their second WR Markus Wheaton, failed to step up to the plate once again and played poorly.  If it weren't for Antonio Brown's skills and Heath Miller's reliability, Ben's line could have looked much worse.  I think people fell in love with Big Ben's back to back six TD games last season and expected similar dominance this year.  Not so fast my friend.

Saint Louis:  Rams out gain Seahawks in total yardage (Big Deal)
The fact that the Rams beat the Seahawks didn't surprise me so much as how well the Rams played offensively.  This team was known for their defense, but starting Benny Cunningham at RB and listing Brian Quick, their best WR, as a healthy scratch, had the makings of a blowout in favor of Seattle.  Instead, Nick Foles finished with a 115.8 passer rating and threw the game winning TD in the waning moments of the game.  Once the Rams get Tre Mason and possibly Todd Gurley healthy, they might actually have some fantasy relevant pieces, despite many, including myself, doubting they would even have one. 

San Diego:  Danny Woodhead outplays Melvin Gordon (Big Deal)
I warned people about this heading into 2015 and the first game of the year played out just like I predicted.  Gordon got some between the 20s looks, but when it came down to the red zone, the Chargers simply trusted Woodhead more.  Woodhead found the end zone two times and was his usual self out catching passes out of the backfield, hauling in four receptions for 20 yards.  Gordon's 14 carries did lead the Chargers RBs, but without the TDs, Gordon will be a borderline bench player, despite being drafted as a RB2 by some people.

San Francisco:  Carlos Hyde runs wild (Big Deal)
Everything about how the 49ers played on Monday Night shocked me, including Hyde.  Hyde showed a surprising amount of quickness having being pigeonholed as a rumbling between the tackles back, and racked up 168 yards and 2 TDs on the Vikes defense.  The Niners clearly want to continue to pound the football, and so long as their defense plays in dominant fashion, they should be able to.  I try not to overreact to Week 1, but it was hard not to watch that game and think this Niners team could be a real threat in the NFC.

Seattle:  Tyler Lockett totals 119 return yards on four kicks, scores once (Big Deal)
This kid is the real deal.  A rookie out of Kansas State, Lockett is the new Devin Hester in the NFL, except he also can make noise on offense as well.  While he might help some leagues that count return yards, he will help all owners of the Seattle D/ST with his return TDs.  He is electric every time he touches the football and Pete Carroll is trying to work him into the offense as well. 

Tampa Bay:  Jameis Winston's terrible debut (Big Deal)
It's not so much Winston's fault as it is the people around him.  The Bucs have multiple rookies on the offensive line and have their best receiving weapon in Mike Evans injured at the moment.  Head coach Lovie Smith has never had incredible offenses anyways, and their defense looks putrid enough to put the Bucs in a lot of holes this year.  With the Falcons showing an improved defense and Carolina still looking stout on D, expect the Bucs to wind up with a single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft, and for Winston's rookie numbers to look anything but impressive.

Tennessee:  Marcus Mariota's wonderful debut (Big Deal/No Deal)
Similar to Big Ben, there's two sides to the coin here.  It's a big deal in that I think he will be successful this year, but no deal if you think he's throwing for four TDs that easily every week.  Mariota had a perfect passer rating and four TDs, but only had to throw the ball 16 times.  I'd like to see how he performs when his defense has to face a great offense and Mariota has to use his arm to keep up.  He is very startable in this week's matchup against the Browns, but will have to keep up with Andrew Luck in Week 3, then faces the Bills' D in Week 4.  Let's see where he stands after that.

Washington:  Alfred Morris runs for 121 on 25 carries (Big Deal)
There really wasn't too much to take away from this game apart from the fact that DeSean Jackson got injured.  I think we all expected the Skins' pass game to be below average and Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon to be the main targets.  Morris' 121 yards stood out, however, because this Dolphin defense added Ndamukong Suh in the offseason to plug up the run.  Morris was able to average 4.8 yards per carry and was the clear workhorse in the backfield.  If they can get closer to the end zone more times than they did on Sunday, Morris will continue to be a solid and steady RB2, no matter who is behind center.

Matty O

2015 AFC Outlook

Defending Champs:  New England Patriots
I had my questions about the Pats prior to Brady being freed from suspension, and those questions still linger despite Brady having his four game suspension nullified.  On the offensive side, their two leading receivers from last year, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman, have been struggling with injuries this offseason, with LaFell winding up on the reserve/PUP list to start the year, meaning he won't be available until Week 8.  While Rob Gronkowski had a monster season last year, don't forget that 2014 was his first injury-free season since 2011.  They also surprisingly released Jonas Gray, who was their leading rusher last season.  I know that LeGarrette Blount did well down the stretch, but all that leaves in the Pats' backfield is Blount, Brandon Bolden, and James White.  Defensively, they lost star cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, and are counting on guys like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to replace them.  Bill Belichick has a knack for getting the most out of no-name players, but eventually the Pats are going to experience a drop off.  With the rest of their division improving in the offseason, I think 2015 is the year we see the Pats decline.

Most Likely To Fall Off:  Pittsburgh Steelers
Obviously the Pats would be my choice if I had not written about them above, so I'll go with the offensively scary, defensively porous Steelers.  Last season, the Steelers made the playoffs behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger and a schedule that saw them play only two playoff teams outside their division (Panthers, Colts).  This year, they face the AFC and NFC West (at Seattle in Week 12), along with going to New England to open the season and playing the Colts a week after their visit to Seattle.  Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, budding young WR Martavis Bryant is suspended for the first four games, and Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is injured and won't be back until around Week 12.  Their defense is still extremely suspect and is unlikely to improve significantly upon their 18th overall total defense ranking last season.  Some people view this team as a Super Bowl contender, but in a division that got three teams to the playoffs last year, I think the Steelers could be struggling to fight for a Wild Card spot.

Most Likely To Surprise:  Miami Dolphins
On paper, this team looks like an elite club.  Ryan Tannehill continues to improve at QB each season, and the Dolphins' front office has done an excellent job surrounding him with weapons for this upcoming season.  Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry were already there, but they added TE Jordan Cameron and WR Kenny Stills, along with drafting WR DeVante Parker and RB Jay Ajayi.  Reports are that star left tackle Branden Albert will be ready for Week 1, giving Tannehill one less thing to worry about.  Defensively, this team made the biggest offseason splash by landing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.  He will plop down right in the middle of edge rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.  Those three should terrorize QBs from the get go, allowing Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes to capitalize on badly thrown footballs.  The hype train for the Dolphins has been rolling for a couple years now and I think they finally have the pieces in place to break through.

Team With The Most To Prove:  Indianapolis Colts
Although Andrew Luck seemed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame from the day he was drafted, he has yet to translate that into postseason success.  The Colts are in arguably the weakest division in football, giving them fairly easy access to the playoffs year after year.  Despite this, they have been absolutely destroyed by the Patriots the last two seasons in the playoffs, and were crushed by the Ravens in 2012 as well.  I know he's only in his fourth year, but it's time for Luck to start putting up his regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Thankfully for Luck, he now has new veteran teammates in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, as well as 2015 first round WR Phillip Dorsett.  This should be one of, if not the, best offenses in the league.  The defense, however, is a problem.  Vontae Davis is a legit shutdown corner, but their run defense is abysmal and doesn't project to be much better in 2015.  The Colts can throw it all they want, but when they run into teams like the Ravens and Patriots who are more than willing to just pound the ball inside, then they crumble as a team.  Again, maybe I'm being too hard on Luck considering he's still pretty young, but with a free pass to the playoffs on a yearly basis, it's time to start performing much better against the big boys in the AFC.

Division by Division Final Standings
East
1.  Dolphins
2.  Patriots
3.  Bills
4.  Jets
North
1.  Ravens
2.  Bengals
3.  Steelers
4.  Browns
South
1.  Colts
2.  Texans
3.  Jaguars
4.  Titans
West
1.  Broncos
2.  Chiefs
3.  Chargers
4.  Raiders

Playoff Seeding
1.  Colts
2.  Ravens
3.  Broncos
4.  Dolphins
WC1.  Chiefs
WC2.  Patriots

Matty O

2015 NFC Outlook

Defending Champs:  Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks look locked and loaded to once again make a run at another Super Bowl appearance.  Despite losing cornerback Byron Maxwell and Pro Bowl center Max Unger, they still have the core of their team intact, acquired TE Jimmy Graham in the Unger trade, and drafted dynamic returner/wide receiver Tyler Lockett.  A dangerous special teams returner has always been one thing missing from recent Seahawks squads, and Lockett has already proved this preseason that he will make an impact in the return game this year.  Kam Chancellor's holdout is a legitimate concern, but I would be shocked if the two sides don't come to an agreement by Week 4 or 5.  The Seahawks are also in a rather shaky division with Carson Palmer's health and durability a huge question mark in Arizona, a mass exodus of players in San Francisco, and an underwhelming offense in St. Louis.  Non-divisional games in Green Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore are no walks in the park, but I expect the Seahawks to make the playoffs rather comfortably and make a run at the number one overall seed.

Most Likely To Fall Off:  Dallas Cowboys
I love my Cowboys, but this season comes with more than a few question marks.  After riding DeMarco Murray into the ground last season and letting him walk to the Eagles in the offseason, the Cowboys felt comfortable with the trio of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, and Lance Dunbar as their running backs and chose not to draft one.  While a committee might work, there is still uncertainty if any of them can carry this run game even behind such a dominant offensive line.  The run game was also what helped Tony Romo cut down on his turnovers last season, as he did not have to air it out as often.  Will the lack of a bell cow back cause Romo to revert to his interception-throwing ways?  Lastly, despite having Sean Lee healthy and signing Greg Hardy, this is still not a good defense.  They will give up a fair amount of yards on the ground and a hilarious amount of yards through the air, particularly with CB Orlando Scandrick out for the year.  With NFC East rivals Philly and New York both improving, the Cowboys could be in danger of not making the playoffs this year.

Most Likely To Surprise:  Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles and Saints are close runners up, but I'm going to go with the Vikings with a second year QB in a division with the Packers.  While I don't think they dethrone Aaron Rodgers and Co. this season, I do think they give them a scare throughout most of the regular season.  Adrian Peterson's return would be enough for any offense in the league to be excited, but they also picked up Mike Wallce and are getting TE Kyle Rudolph back from injury.  With Teddy Bridgewater playing decently his rookie year, this offense is a lock to improve upon their 27th ranked attack this year.  Defensively, they have quietly built one of the more sound, young defenses in the league.  They were 14th in total defense last season and bolstered their secondary by drafting CB Trae Waynes 11th overall in the 2015 draft.  It's hard to see them winning the North with the Pack in their division, but a Wild Card spot is within reach.  Don't be surprised if this squad dethrones Rodgers and the Pack in one or two years in this division.

Team With The Most To Prove:  Philadelphia Eagles
You could make a case for the Packers because of how they lost the Seattle game last year or the Cowboys because of how they lost the Green Bay game last year, but I'm going to go with the team that put all its chips in Chip.  The Eagles gave head coach Chip Kelly almost no restrictions this offseason in redesigning the team to his liking.  Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles are the only notable skill position offensive players returning, as Kelly is determined to make his Oregon based offense work in the NFL.  He's either going to be hailed as an offensive genius and innovator or ridiculed for getting rid of the likes of Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy.  I could see this team finishing 4-12 or 12-4.  Neither would surprise me.

Division To Watch:  NFC East (Dallas, Washington, New York Giants, Philadelphia)
Obviously I'm biased as a Cowboy fan, but this should be the most entertaining division this season.  Chip Kelly has completely overhauled the entire Eagles' roster, and heads into the season with injury prone Sam Bradford at QB.  This team is sure to put up points, but can the explosiveness last all season?  The Cowboys are always in the media simply because they are the Cowboys, but their offense should be something to marvel at as well.  They will be on a mission to avenge the Dez Bryant no catch game against the Packers in last year's playoffs.  The Giants have improved immensely on offense with Victor Cruz coming back and Shane Vereen now in Giants blue.  The defense is more than suspect, however, so they will have to out score everyone they face.  Lastly, although they will likely finish in last place, the Redskins will get plenty of headlines so long as RG3 is there.  Things will get really interesting if Kirk Cousins and/or Colt McCoy get hurt and RG3 has to play once again.  With a NFC East team appearing six times on Monday Night Football, seven times on Sunday Night Football, and the Eagles and Cowboys both playing on Thanksgiving, the nation should get plenty of opportunities to see these teams in action.

Division by Division Final Standings
East
1.  Eagles
2.  Cowboys
3.  Giants
4.  Redskins
North
1.  Packers
2.  Vikings
3.  Lions
4.  Bears
South
1.  Saints
2.  Falcons
3.  Panthers
4.  Bucs
West
1.  Seahawks
2.  Cardinals
3.  49ers
4.  Rams

Playoff Seeding
1.  Packers
2.  Seahawks
3.  Eagles
4.  Saints
WC1.  Cowboys
WC2.  Vikings

Matty O

2015 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Studs:  Tony Romo, QB, Dez Bryant, WR
Despite finishing 23rd in pass attempts and missing a game due to injury, Romo still managed to finish 11th in fantasy points among QBs, making him a starter in 12 team leagues.  He was able to achieve this by cutting down on the turnovers and consistently producing TDs.  In fact, he had more TDs and the same amount of interceptions as Ben Roethlisberger, despite Big Ben throwing for six TDs in back to back games.  The Cowboys will probably still want to establish the run behind their massive offensive line, but with DeMarco Murray gone, I think they will air it out a bit more in 2015.  If Romo can stay healthy and get up to around 500 pass attempts (435 in 2014), he should be a top eight fantasy QB.

There was some concern this offseason that Dez would holdout into the regular season due to disagreements in contract negotiations.  Thankfully, for the Cowboys and fantasy owners, the receiving TD leader in 2014 got a new contract and is good to go for 2015.  Dez is one of the safer WRs to pick up as he has no real threat for targets behind him, has the trust of his QB, and is one of the best red zone threats in the league along with Rob Gronkowski and Demaryius Thomas.  While Romo ranked 23rd in pass attempts, Dez ranked 12th in targets, though I expect him to rise in those ranks this season.  Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Keenan Lewis are all on the schedule this season, but I still expect Dez to have a top five WR year. 

Bust:  Joseph Randle, RB
This pick is likely to blow up in my face, but I simply think that Randle's draft stock has risen too high.  While it's true that he will be running behind one of the best lines in the league, it is likely he won't be the only one doing so.  Word out of camp is that Darren McFadden will get a handful of reps and Lance Dunbar will see his share of passing down work.  While McFadden is made of glass and gets injured every time he sneezes, Randle is not without his problems as well.  Randle has been battling an oblique injury recently and has been in trouble off the field for drug charges and shoplifting.  While neither were particularly serious charges, it's never a good sign to have that kind of stuff in your recent history, particularly with the league cracking down on off the field incidents.  Randle could finish as a top 10 back if McFadden's health fails him once again, but his price is simply too high for me right now.  Draft him as a high risk, high reward RB.

Sleeper:  None
I'm tempted to put this D/ST unit here because Sean Lee is healthy (for now) and Greg Hardy will play at some point this season for this team, but the back end is so underwhelming that I can't bring myself to call them a Sleeper.  They could have success late in the year however, as they face the Bucs, Panthers, Redskins, Jets, and Bills in the second half of the season, all of whom have questionable offenses at this point.

Bottom Line
The Cowboys should once again be in contention for a playoff spot, and possibly a deep run in the playoffs if one of their RBs emerges as a bell cow type RB.  The defense is an obvious question mark, though they certainly look better on paper than the unit last year.  Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley (PPR) might find some value in the passing game, but I think Dez hogs most of the targets for Dallas, leaving Williams and Beasley as bye week fill ins at best.

New York Giants
Studs:  Odell Beckham, Jr., WR
ODB probably won a lot of people's leagues last year.  People were wary of drafting or even claiming him off of waivers after it was known that he would miss the first quarter of the season with an injury.  With no training camp and Victor Cruz to contend with, many thought that Beckham could contribute some, but certainly not reach the levels that he did.  Well, Cruz went down with his own season ending injury, and Beckham became one of the best fantasy options at WR.  In only 12 games last season, ODB had 91 receptions, 1305 yards, and 12 TDs.  While Cruz is coming back this season, ODB has clearly established that he is the number one WR for the Giants, and certainly the best red zone threat on this team.  The Giants' defense is arguably worse than it was last year, so expect them to fling the ball all over the place as they play catch up.  Health permitting, ODB is a candidate for top overall WR this season.

Bust:  Rashad Jennings, RB
Jennings started out the year strong, highlighted by a 176 yard, one TD performance in Week 3, but then cooled off on the stat sheet and was bitten by the injury bug.  He wound up only playing in 11 games, perhaps showing that he is not built to handle a full workload.  Before coming to the Giants, he had been a backup and only had to handle a lot of carries if the starter went down.  In fact, he got more carries in 11 games last season than he did in 2013 in Oakland when he played in 15 games.  I think the Giants are very aware of this fact and will likely give Andre Williams more between the tackles work.  They also picked up Shane Vereen in the offseason, who will undoubtedly take most, if not all, of the passing down snaps.  The decrease in workload coupled with a lot of games where the Giants will be trailing, puts Jennings in the FLEX or even bench role if his touches are severely limited. 

Sleeper:  Eli Manning, QB
Sometimes it's not how good you are, it's how good the players around you are.  That is the case with Eli as he now has some of the best passing weapons in the game, though his tendency to throw head scratching interceptions will probably remain.  ODB was a big reason why Eli was able to finish 10th among fantasy QBs last season, and now he gets Cruz back, along with the newly acquired Shane Vereen.  While ODB might get a lot of the hype, I think Vereen is the most important guy in making Manning successful.  He provides the short, dump off option that the Giants lacked last season, which resulted in Manning throwing the ball into coverage.  Vereen's presence should allow for safer throws and less turnovers for Manning in 2015.  There will still be occasional horrific games from Eli (Week 11 vs San Fran in 2014 he threw five interceptions), but his highs and lows should be better in 2015.  Look for Eli to have a top eight QB season.

Bottom Line
Like the other teams in the NFC East, the offense is looking up, but the defense is a definite concern.  The Gaints should air it out this season with ODB and Vereen being the most reliable options.  If Cruz can stay healthy, he should be productive, particularly in PPR leagues where he plays out of the slot.  Larry Donnell was a popular pick up early in 2014 at TE, but failed to score TDs with ODB playing.  When Donnell doesn't find the end zone, he offers little to no fantasy value.

Philadelphia Eagles
Studs:  DeMarco Murray, RB, Jordan Matthews, WR
After being the most productive RB in 2014, the Cowboys decided to let Murray go, and he just happened to wind up with the rival Philadelphia Eagles.  The situation is so different for Murray that it is hard to project just how well he will do.  The offensive line is a downgrade and he is sure to see a drop in his 393 rushes last season, but the Eagles operate their offense at a lightning fast pace, which should still allow Murray enough touches to make plays.  He is one of the riskier top RBs to take because no one knows exactly how many touches he will get or what role he will play, but he has the upside to be a top five back.

I was high on Matthews coming out of Vanderbilt last season and, although it took him a while to get playing time, he made it count once he became a permanent starter.  After the Eagles' Week 7 bye, Matthews hauled in six TDs and had three 100+ yard games.  He was a reliable option out of the slot and should get even more looks now that Jeremy Maclin is in Kansas City.  The tempo and movement of Chip Kelly's offense should get him into plenty of open space this season, making Matthews one of the better WR2 options, with upside to climb into the WR1 tier.

Bust:  Eagles' RBs
I think this situation is going to turn into a DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart type situation where you have two talented backs that make for a dangerous combo for their real life team, but a frustrating combo for fantasy owners.  While Murray is the number one back in Philly, Ryan Mathews is not far behind and should get his fair share of touches.  Kelly likes to rotate backs to keep them fresh all game, which can lead to inconsistent numbers for his RBs at times.  Darren Sproles is also still around to take receptions and a handful of carries away from Mathews and Murray.  It is also important to note that, prior to 2014, Murray had not played a full 16 game season, and Mathews has only played a full 16 games once in his five year career.  The pace of the offense and the demanding practices that Kelly runs could wear one, if not both of them down by the end of the year.  Any player has upside with the tempo of this offense, but Murray and Mathews in particular, come with a high amount of risk.

Sleeper:  Nelson Agholor, WR
The rookie out of USC could have a similar season to Matthews' 2014, as he is eased into the offense before putting up starting fantasy numbers late in the year.  Agholor is a shifty slot WR who makes his money getting yards after the catch.  He will probably be the go to guy on bubble screens or reveres, just to try and get him in the open field.  While this offense is run oriented, it was able to support both Maclin and Matthews down the stretch last season, so Agholor has a chance to put up at least WR3/FLEX numbers.  You can snag him late or off waivers.

Bottom Line
Everything with the Eagles hinges on if QB Sam Bradford can stay healthy, and if you truly believe in Chip Kelly's system.  If Bradford goes down, I don't see the likes of Mark Sanchez or Matt Barkley leading this team to the playoffs.  The value of a lot of the guys mentioned above would likely drop and Agholor could become a complete non-factor.  This defense won't duplicate their 11 D/ST TDs from last season, but they should be a solid option in average to good matchups.  The Eagles are the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC East.

Washington Redskins
Studs:  Alfred Morris, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Morris may not have the upside of a lot of the top NFL RBs, but he has one of the safest floors.  Even with the entire offense in tatters last season, Morris still managed to go over 1,000 yards and score eight times.  His value should be lowered in PPR leagues as he has never had more than 17 receptions in a season.  Due to the uncertainty at QB and the fact that the Redskins play from behind a lot, Morris likely won't crack the top eight RBs, but he is someone you don't have to worry about and can feel good trotting him out as a RB2 any week of the season.

Jackson is the ultimate boom or bust, but if you don't mind players like that, then Jackson can provide some huge weeks for you.  He racked up 1,169 receiving yards last season on only 56 receptions, an average of 20.9 yards per catch.  That's the kind of player Jackson has been his whole career and that is what you'll get when you draft him.  If he doesn't get that long bomb, he'll likely sink your fantasy team, but when he can connect on one or two of them, he can post WR1 numbers at a WR2 price.  His volatility makes starting him and facing him a game long nightmare.

Bust:  Robert Griffin III, QB
It's not really that he will be a bust as his draft stock has dropped significantly, but this will be RG3's last hurrah in Washington, and he should at least start in Week 1.  He might post a couple good games to begin the year, but injuries and poor decision making will be his downfall for the Redskins and fantasy owners alike.  When RG3 is starting and healthy, it raises the value of everyone around him, but once the threat of RG3 running is taken away, he becomes a mediocre QB at best.  While I'm actually rooting for him to succeed, I think he flounders once again and ends his time in DC on a low note.  It will be interesting to see if anyone can revitalize this talented, young QB's career.

Sleeper:  Jordan Reed, TE
If not now, then when?  The past two seasons Reed has shown incredible skill on the field as well as a knack for getting injured on it.  He's only played 20 games the past two seasons, frustrating fantasy owners as he has posted good games when healthy.  It looked as though Niles Paul was going to enter the season as the starting TE for the Redskins, but he has already suffered a season ending injury.  Reed himself is already battling a hamstring injury this offseason, though it doesn't look to be serious.  If he can somehow stay healthy, Reed would be in the TE1 conversation regardless of who Washington throws out at QB.  He's currently going undrafted so it won't cost much to take a chance on him.

Bottom Line
An unstable QB situation, bottom of the league defense, and injuries before the season starts leads me to believe that the Redskins are heading for another last place finish.  Morris is the only safe option in Washington, though Pierre Garcon could come back to fantasy relevance if RG3 somehow stays healthy, as those two had a solid connection in RG3's rookie season.  This is not a good time to be a Redskins fan.

Matty O

2015 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Studs:  LeSean McCoy, RB, Sammy Watkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
McCoy's move from Philly to Buffalo should give owners both hope and caution when considering drafting him.  The reasons for hope is that McCoy is firmly the number one RB and should see more touches, whereas he was substituted out for Darren Sproles and even Chris Polk in Philly.  Rex Ryan is committed to the run and, with a terrible collection of QBs, will likely rely on the run game to control the clock.  If McCoy can stay healthy, he is a candidate to lead the NFL in carries.  The reasons for caution is that the Buffalo offensive line is a downgrade from Philly's and the run defenses in the AFC East are much stouter than the ones in the NFC East.  I think McCoy certainly improves upon his five rushing TDs from last season, though the yards might be tough to come by.  His value will increase if Rex decides to utilize him in the passing game.

I debated putting Watkins in here because of his QB situation and how poorly he finished 2014, but his talent is still above league average and he should still have WR2 value.  Watkins had no trouble adjusting to the NFL early on, tallying three 100+ yard games and five TDs in the first eight weeks of the season.  After the Bills' Week 9 bye, however, things went downhill in a hurry.  He had only one more 100+ yard game the rest of the season and only scored one more time.  He had five games where he only caught three balls and one game where he came away with a single catch.  Watkins is far from a safe pick, but his athletic ability coupled with the triple digit targets he will probably get, should make him a reasonable pick at his falling draft position.

This D/ST unit finished first among D/ST in fantasy last season, and I doubt that changes this year.  They had eight double digit performances last season and two of those were 20+ (vs Miami, vs New York Jets).  They even held Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense to a mere 13 points in Week 15.  They were able to keep defensive end Jerry Hughes and, along with Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Marcell Dareus, form one of the best defensive lines in the league.  They addressed their secondary concerns by drafting cornerback Ronald Darby in the second round of this year's draft, though the front four should create enough pressure that the secondary can get by with average talent.  Add in Rex Ryan's notorious defensive scheme, and you have the makings of an elite fantasy and real life defense.

Bust:  None
With Watkins' draft stock plummeting, I think the three Studs above are being drafted at a reasonable position.

Sleeper:  Fred Jackson, RB
Jackson continues to be that old veteran that can provide a bye week fill in or handle a larger workload if the starting RB goes down.  With McCoy coming over in the offseason, I think a lot of people have already forgotten the stats that Jackson can put up.  Jackson is getting up there in age and injury concerns are a problem, but he still got 207 touches last season, 66 of which were receptions.  He's clearly not even in McCoy's league in terms of being an every down back, but could provide some value in PPR formats as he is a better receiver than McCoy out of the backfield.  Also keep in mind that McCoy will be expected to do more in between the tackles running in Buffalo, leading to more hits and possibly more nicks for McCoy.  If he were to miss any time Jackson would be at least a low end RB2.

Bottom Line
There is a lot of excitement in Buffalo in 2015, mainly due to Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy joining the fold.  Their defense is one of the best in the league, though their QB situation is one of the worst.  If their QB can simply not turn the ball over and rely on this defense and run game, then Buffalo has a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Miami Dolphins
Studs:  Lamar Miller, RB, Jarvis Landry (PPR), WR
Miller's value is hurt because he does not see the heavy workload that a DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy does, but he is productive with his touches to go along with eight scores last season.  I was actually low on Miller after the draft because the Dolphins selected Jay Ajayi out of Boise State, but Ajayi has struggled in camp so far, allowing Miller to distance himself for the starting role in this offense.  His 5.1 yards per carry will probably go down this season, but the TDs and a 1000+ yard season seem within reach.  The only problem is that if Miller is not productive with his touches, he could sink your team as the Dolphins do not seem to be willing to force feed Miller carries.

Landry will have a low TD total, a low yardage total, but can be a valuable WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues.  While the Dolphins did pick up Kenny Stills from the Saints and drafted DeVante Parker, Landry at least knows the Dolphins' system and clearly gained Ryan Tannehill's trust in 2014.  Despite not even playing in Week 1 and being overshadowed by Mike Wallace to start the season, Landry still wound up with 84 receptions on 111 targets, and never had less than five catches from Week 9 until the end of the season.  The new additions might drop Landry's targets a bit, but keep in mind that Stills is more of a deep, stretch the field threat and Parker has been battling injuries throughout the offseason. 

Bust:  Landry, WR
As I mentioned before, targets could be an issue for Landry this season, and he needs to see a lot of them to be productive.  While Parker has been injured, he seems like the real deal and could surpass Landry as the WR to own in Miami in PPR and standard leagues.  Because Landry is not a big WR, his TDs will be few and far between, lessening his value even more.  Injuries to Stills and/or Parker could open up the door for Landry, but even if that opportunity occurs, he is still no more than a WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues.

Sleeper:  Ryan Tannehill, QB
Tannehill seems poised for a big year in 2015.  He has increased his passing yards and TDs every year he has been in the league, and posted a career low 12 interceptions in 2014.  It is the second year in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's offense, which emphasizes quick throws and an up tempo pace to the offense.  While the Dolphins did lose WR Mike Wallace, they still have Landry, Parker, Stills, and new TE Jordan Cameron.  If Jay Ajayi can get over his rookie struggles, that will provide RB depth that the Dolphins lacked last season.  If LT Branden Albert can come back from his ACL and MCL tear last season, then this offense looks locked and loaded to put up points, even in a division with the Jets' and Bills' defenses.  Tannehill should be the main beneficiary.

Bottom Line
The Dolphins looked impressive in Week 1 last season, beating the mighty Patriots by 13 at home to start the season.  Even with the Pats' early struggles, however, New England still won the division and got revenge in a big way by blasting the Dolphins 41-13 in Foxborough.  This Dolphin team is improved, but they still need to clear the hurdle of the dominant Patriots.  Hopefully the addition of Ndamukong Suh to an already talented defense, can put them over the hump.

New England Patriots
Studs:  Tom Brady, QB, Julian Edleman (PPR), WR, Rob Gronkowski, TE
Obviously things are still up in the air with Brady as Deflategate continues to drag on, but there's no doubting that Brady still has it from a fantasy perspective.  While he currently is going to be suspended for the first four games of this season, he played fairly awful the first four games of the season last year anyways.  He had three single digit games, and only managed 13 fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders.  There were talks of benching Brady or even sending him to the waiver wire.  Well, after the debacle in Kansas City in Week 4, Brady tore up the NFL, looking like vintage Brady and still finishing as the eighth best fantasy QB last season.  The loss of Shane Vereen will hurt more than people think, but he still has Edleman, Brandon LaFell, and the Gronk to throw to.  Regardless of when Brady plays, he should perform at a high QB1 level.  It will be interesting to see how far he falls in drafts.

Edleman is a rich man's Jarvis Landry.  Similar to Landry, Edleman is a poor bet to score a significant amount of TDs, but he is guaranteed to get triple digit targets and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 90+ receptions like he did in 2014.  Brady will be throwing to him at some point this season but, because of how well Edleman creates separation at the line, I still think he can be decently productive if Jimmy Garoppolo is under center.  Shane Vereen's absence might mean even more short targets his way, though I doubt he tops 1,000 yards.  If you're just looking for consistent receptions, however, then Edleman is your guy and a player a wouldn't mind reaching for.

Gronk gets plenty of attention for his partying and goofy antics off the field, but on Sundays (also Mondays, Thursdays, and sometimes Saturdays) he shows up to play.  Gronk is one of the most un-coverable players in the red zone as he has double digit TDs in every season except for 2013, when he only played seven games.  Gronk even sees his fair share of targets between the 20s as he racked up 100 more receiving yards than any other TE.  His 130 targets make WRs jealous, as Gronk should also perform at an adequate, but perhaps not elite, level when Garoppolo is under center.  Gronk is the unquestioned fantasy TE1 and is worthy of his high draft cost.

Bust:  Patriot RBs
For now, the presumed starter for between the tackles running is LeGarrette Blount.  Blount, however, will miss the Patriots' Week 1 game and has to contend with Jonas Gray breathing down his neck.  If it weren't for a missed team meeting following a 201 yard 4 TD performance against the Colts in Week 11 last year, I think Gray might have won the job down the stretch.  Instead, Blount performed well to close the season out after coming over from Pittsburgh, though Gray looked good in the preseason opener this year against Green Bay.  Gray will be the starter Week 1, and could have a chance to supplant Blount as the lead back.  The problem is, I see a committee forming where one back does well, then the other one does.  Belichick always makes game plans tailor made to the defense he is facing, so sometimes his RBs don't even get double digit carries.  The Shane Vereen passing role is up for grabs, but James White and Brandon Bolden are two underwhelming candidates.  This situation could work itself out during the season, but don't be surprised if you have a few headaches if you own any of these backs.

Sleeper:  None
I don't see anyone on this squad greatly outperforming their draft position.  Garoppolo could be considered a four game sleeper, as I think he does reasonably well while Brady is out.

Bottom Line
Could this be the year that the Pats are finally dethroned from the AFC East?  Brady's ruling is in limbo, Shane Vereen is with the Giants, and Darrelle Revis went to the rival New York Jets.  While all those losses are significant, we've seen Belichick work wonders with no name players before.  I'm sure there are guys that no one has heard about that will make a difference for the Pats in some way this season.  So, while a lot of signs are pointing to this team declining, I still wouldn't count them out for another AFC East crown.

New York Jets
Studs:  Brandon Marshall, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Marshall struggled with injuries and off the field distractions during his last season in Chicago, finishing with less than 750 yards, though he did haul in eight TDs.  Now with a fresh start in New York, I expect Marshall to bounce back and have a nice season in 2015.  The QB situation in New York is shaky at best, but Marshall, like in Chicago, is sure to get footballs thrown his way early and often.  He is probably the Jets' best red zone threat and should get his chances to score when the Jets do get down there, however rarely that may be.  His numbers will be held back by poor QB play, but people seem to have completely forgotten about him because he left Chicago.  Don't forget, and snag him as a WR2.

Rarely do I put an unproven player or unit in the Stud section, but this is a special case.  The Jets D/ST finished 27th in fantasy points among D/ST units last season, largely because they couldn't produce turnovers and couldn't stop the pass.  Things are looking much brighter after they picked up Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie through free agency, and then they drafted the best defensive player in this year's draft in Leonard Williams.  Their front seven was already stout and the Revis and Cromartie additions should significantly shore up their secondary.  Add in new head coach, former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles calling the shots, and I see this unit returning to top 10, possibly top 5 status.

Bust:  Eric Decker, WR
I simply don't think this offense can support two WRs.  I have no doubt that, health permitting, Marshall will lead this team in targets.  The Jets also selected WR Devin Smith in the second round, though his early season status may be in jeopardy due to injury.  The Jets will likely emphasize the run due to their poor QB situation and rely on their stout defense to give them good field position and more time of possession.  I don't think Decker is a bad player by any means, but this offense will be limited in their aerial attack and Marshall is the only one that I think puts up enough numbers to be a fantasy starter.

Sleeper:  Chris Ivory, RB
Ivory has great value this season as a lot of backs that also play two downs and are their teams' thumper (Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram) are going way ahead of him.  Let others get those guys, and you wait to snag Ivory.  Ivory struggled with injuries early in his career in New Orleans, but has played in every game except one since coming over to the Jets in 2013.  He's faster than you think for his size and has always done well with his touches, never dipping under 4.1 yards per carry in any of his five NFL seasons.  The Jets have terrible and/or injured backups behind Ivory, so perhaps he will finally get the full workload that the Jets have been hesitant to give him the last couple years.  He is a lock to get all the goal line looks, and there has even been talk about getting him involved in the passing game.  Ivory is one of my favorite sleepers in 2015.

Bottom Line
It's going to be ugly, it might be boring to watch, but I think the Jets are going to grind out a lot more victories than people think.  With all the question marks the Patriots have, this division is really up for grabs and the Jets have a shot if they can cut down on the turnovers and create some with their defense.  That formula might make it hard to win the division, but I could see them getting a Wild Card spot.

Matty O