The Heisman Trophy. The MVP of college football. A trophy with seemingly simple criteria to crown a winner, is often left open to debate. The front runner for this year's award has gone from Teddy Bridgewater to Johnny Manziel to Marcus Mariota to Jameis Winston, even Texas A&M tight end Mike Evans has been suggested for it by his head coach Kevin Sumlin. As is the case every year, however, there are always those players that never get the respect they deserve in the voting. Heck, some of them don't even get invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony as a finalist. Now that these aforementioned top candidates for the trophy have suffered setbacks, on the field and off, it leaves the door open for the following three players to make their mark. Two are from non-automatic qualifying conferences, but one is from a major conference. Maybe the best conference in college football. Yet, despite quarterbacking the number one team in the nation, I still don't think he's gotten the attention he deserves.
A.J. McCarron, QB, University of Alabama
From a statistics perspective, McCarron is anything but impressive. He doesn't put up video game-like numbers that some of the other front runners have. He ranks a pedestrian 45th in passing yards, behind quarterbacks from the likes of Buffalo and North Texas. So why should he be getting more attention? Consistency, efficiency, and wins. While he ranks 45th in passing yards, he ranks 10th in passer rating and 11th in completion percentage, with a 23:5 TD to interception ratio. The knocks against McCarron are that he is surrounded with four and five star recruits on offense, and is often labeled an Alex Smith-esque game manager.
Even though he has talented players around him, it's not like Alabama is playing scrub teams. They faced Virginia Tech in non-conference play, then opened up SEC play at Texas A&M, while getting Ole Miss and LSU at home. As far as the game manager label is concerned, I think he shed that in the game at A&M. Going up against fellow Heisman candidate Manziel, McCarron went 20/29 for 334 yards, four TDs, and zero interceptions, including some clutch throws late in the game. Final score: Alabama - 49 Texas A&M - 42. Manziel had an impressive performance himself, but lost the game, threw two interceptions, and should have thrown a third. This game showed not only that McCarron deserved Heisman hype, but also shed some light on why his numbers might not be as high as the others mentioned for the Heisman.
Defense might win championships, but it might also prevent a quarterback from winning the Heisman. That A&M game was the only one this season where a team was able to match Alabama point for point. They have absolutely drubbed teams this year, causing Alabama to run the ball and play their backups. Head coach Nick Saban could care less who wins the Heisman, he just wants to win the National Championship. To accomplish that goal, he's not going to leave his quarterback out there in a blowout game.
Take the Arkansas game for example, where Alabama won 52-0. McCarron only threw for 180 yards, but had three TDs and zero interceptions. Saban put in backup QB Blake Sims and pounded the ball on the ground towards the end of the game. Nothing McCarron could do. I think that if he were called upon to put up gaudy numbers, he could do it on a week to week basis. The Auburn game next Saturday will be very telling. If McCarron beats Auburn to put him in line for a third National Championship, he has to be the front runner. How can you deny a player, who could potentially win three National Championships, a Heisman Trophy at least one of those years?
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State University
Being a fan of NIU, I must say that I hope Fresno State loses if a BCS bowl berth is on the line between them and NIU. That being said, there is no denying what Fresno's quarterback has been able to do. Unlike McCarron, Carr does have the big numbers to support his cause. He's second in the nation in passing yards with 3,948 and first in the nation with 39 TDs (only four interceptions as well). His team is undefeated and ranked 15th in the BCS as of this writing, and should go up. So why has he barely, if at all, been mentioned for the Heisman? Basically, it comes down to who he plays.
Wins over Idaho, Hawaii, and Wyoming aren't exactly going to catch the national media's eye. They're in the Mountain West Conference, which certainly brings down their level of competition. I've always thought the argument against star players from smaller schools was always unfair because people would say that they're playing a bunch of cupcake teams. They would never survive against the Ohio State and LSU's of the world. Maybe, maybe not. But it's not like these players are playing with the recruits that go to the Ohio State and LSU's of the world. A five star recruit who is the second coming of Jerry Rice isn't going to go to a Fresno State or San Jose State. Often times, these players at smaller schools have to carry the burden for their entire team and lead them to victory. And this year, Carr has had to do that more than once.
Unlike the stout Alabama defense, Fresno State's defense has been like swiss cheese this year. They have given up a staggering amount of points, forcing Fresno to often times get into high scoring contests. Bad for looking good to BCS voters, good for looking good to Heisman voters. They've now had two games go to overtime, including their first game against Rutgers where their defense surrendered 51 points. Since September 21st, Alabama's defense has surrendered a combined total of 50 points. Fresno has also had a one point victory over Boise State, and a five point victory over Hawaii.
Carr has been sensational in all of those games, saving Fresno's BCS chances. Fresno's Carr led offense has scored at least 35 points in every game this season. His passing numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Fresno has only played 10 games this year due to a postponed game in Colorado back in September, whereas most teams have played 11 games by this point. While Carr probably has the longest shot out of these three players to get invited as a Heisman finalist, I think it's criminal that he is hardly even getting mentioned in the discussion.
Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois University
Lynch and Carr pretty much have the same narrative going. Great player, great numbers, small school, under appreciated skills. Unlike Carr and McCarron who make a name for themselves throwing the ball, Lynch also has outstanding running ability. He currently ranks 7th in total rushing yards with 1,434, the highest ranking of any quarterback in the nation. While his passing numbers aren't as outstanding, he has been efficient, tossing a 21:5 TD to interception ratio and ranking 25th in passer rating. Similar to Carr, his defense has put him in some close calls this year, but he's been able to pull them out of every one as NIU is undefeated and currently ranked one spot below Fresno in the BCS standings.
The difference between Carr and Lynch however, is twofold. The first difference is that Lynch has been able to build off of momentum from last year. People at least sort of, kind of knew who he was with NIU's appearance in the Orange Bowl. Was it the stuff of legends? No, but it was national exposure in a BCS game. Now that Lynch is following up last season with another outstanding season, people are starting to realize this guy isn't a fluke. Carr unfortunately didn't have that momentum coming into this year, so he's been fighting an uphill battle since late August. The problem is I don't think he'll have turned enough heads by the time the Heisman voting comes around.
The second difference is that the Huskies have played two teams (Iowa, Purdue) from major conferences, whereas Fresno State did not get that chance. This allows us and voters to be able to compare players on different teams against a mutual opponent. Purdue has been abysmal this year, so I'll disregard them, but Iowa was a respectable opponent, particularly their defense. They currently are 7-4 and rank 13th in points against. They played NIU in Kinnick Stadium the first game of the year. Lynch was able to account for 331 of NIU's 438 total yards and passed for every one of NIU's scores as they won on a last second field goal.
By comparison, Iowa played Ohio State's Braxton Miller, arguably the Big Ten's Heisman front runner and possibly national Heisman front runner had it not been for injury, in mid-October in the Horseshoe. Miller had a great day as well, accounting for 324 total yards with two TD tosses and no turnovers. So here you have two great QBs, going up against the same defense, both getting wins, but Lynch doing it with a lesser supporting cast. There's no telling if Lynch and the Huskies could do that game in and game out in the Big Ten, but putting up better numbers than a QB in the Big Ten against the same team has to count for something right?
Given the recent on the field struggles of Bridgewater, Manziel, and Mariota, and Winston's off the field issues, it would be a travesty if Lynch isn't at least invited. Barring a disaster against Western Michigan this Tuesday, Lynch will have put up ridiculous numbers two years in a row. If NIU gets invited to another BCS bowl, that just makes his argument even stronger. Some people are already writing him off saying he won't get invited, but the way things are going, how can you not? If McCarron, Carr, and Lynch aren't at least in the discussion for the Heisman Trophy, then something is seriously wrong with the system that determines who the best player in college football is.
Matty O
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Fantasy Football: Halfway Mark
We're halfway to the fantasy playoffs, where does your team stand? Undefeated? Winless? Happy? Frustrated? Fear not, for although we're halfway there (most leagues have playoffs that start in Week 14 or Week 15 with the Championship matchup Week 16), you still have time to catch up. With a few well placed trades and timely pick ups, you might be able to sneak into the playoffs yet if you're at the bottom. For those at the top, don't get too comfortable. Every team is one injury, coaching change, or schedule alignment away from going on a losing streak. Here now is a review of the season thus far and things to watch for going forward.
Injuries
The ultimate equalizer. Take Jay Cutler this week for example. Having put up three solid outings in a row heading into Sunday, Cutler would have probably put up fairly decent numbers. Although he already threw one interception, he was injured early in the second quarter in a game that was, and became, a shootout. The Bears only led two times during that game, as Josh McCown threw the ball 20 times in Cutler's relief. In both of my leagues, it could be argued that had Cutler played the whole game, those teams that owned him would have won.
The problem is that, unless it's a player like Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray, it is nearly impossible to predict an injury. Who would have guessed that Cutler, Arian Foster, Jermichael Finley, Sam Bradford, Doug Martin, Nick Foles, and others would have gotten injured this past weekend? I sure didn't. This is why depth for your team going forward is so important. Come playoff time, if you don't have a solid player at every position, chances are you're going to lose. Injuries are hard to predict, but being prepared for those injuries is not.
Injuries, Part Deux
While players getting injured is bad news, players coming back from injury is great news! Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Andre Brown, Nate Burleson, Michael Crabtree, Shane Vereen, and Dennis Pitta are just a few marquee names that are coming back from injury. When assessing whether to stash a player and use up a roster spot, there are two things to keep in mind. First off, when are they coming back? Harvin reportedly could be back for the Monday night game this week, and Brown should be back in Week 9 after the Giants' bye, so those two should be owned in all leagues. The other players have less clear timetables. Teams toss around weeks when a player is expected back, but no one really knows for sure. Just look at the Gronk debacle at the start of this year. With the other players, I would say track their progress unless you have a spot you can spare, but since bye weeks are still not over, it's unlikely that you do.
The second thing to keep in mind is how effective will this player be? Take Michael Crabtree for example. He will be coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon. Not the easiest thing to come back from. Once the injury itself has healed, then he has to get back into game shape. Then he has to get back into the flow of the game (thankfully he played with Kaepernick last year). Then, in the playoffs, he'll likely have to face Richard Sherman of the Seahawks, followed by Darrelle Rivas of the Bucs. No thanks. Kaepernick does not look nearly as good as he did last year. While Crabtree's absence probably has something to do with it, it cannot account for all of it. Kaepernick is 24th in the league in passing attempts, despite the 49ers being 11th in points per game. They're a very run heavy team and I don't see Crabtree producing like he did last year. So while he is a big name that is coming back, it's likely that he won't be as effective as last year, and you might waste a roster spot, or lose a matchup if he puts up a dud and he's in your starting lineup.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of schedule can sometimes be the difference between hanging onto a player or trading him away. It might also be the explanation for a player's early, unexpected dominance, or conversely a player's early, unexpected struggles. Take a guy like Chris Johnson for example. The defenses he's had to face so far along with their rank in rush defense have been the Steelers (11th), Texans (27th), Chargers (19th), Jets (5th), Chiefs (22nd), Seahawks (10th), and 49ers (20th). While that might not seem that bad, I will say that the Chiefs and 49ers are much better than their ranking would imply. The Chiefs were gashed in the Thursday night game against the Eagles back in September, but have tightened up since. San Fran was pummeled in all phases of the game in Seattle, then followed it up with another dud against Indy where they were run all over. Apart from that, they've been stout.
Johnson, predictably, ran for his two highest rushing totals against the Texans and Chargers, gaining 96 and 90 yards, respectively. He gained 70 yards against the Steelers, but needed 25 carries to do so, and he has rushed for no more than 39 yards in any of the other four contests. A forward looking owner, however, will see the Titans play the Rams, Jacksonville (twice), Indy (twice), Raiders, Broncos, and Cardinals. Juicy matchups to say the least. There's certainly a chance he still doesn't perform as his yards per carry is at a terrible 3.2, good for 41st in the league. But if you're looking for a reason to hold onto a player, strength of schedule might be it.
They Are Who We Thought They Were...Well, Maybe Not
Before the season starts, everyone thinks they have all the answers. Adrian Peterson will break the rushing record, the Texans will be an elite team, and Jacksonville will be terrible. Well, 1 for 3, baseball Hall of Fame batting average right there. By now though, it is safe to assume that players are who they are. Unfortunately, I watched the Monday Night game last night and there's no way I can believe that Eli Manning will get better later on in the year. I thought that at one point and even tried to trade for him (thankfully that was rejected). He is after all a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback and should have to throw the ball because their defense is so bad. His offensive line though, is just so bad, and his receivers aren't as good as they would have you believe. Yes, he avoided the huge, costly mistake last night, but it's not like the Vikings defense is the '85 Bears.
At this point, barring an injury, most players will give you the production you have come to expect. With that in mind, would it be crazy to bench Tom Brady as your QB this year? No, of course not. Look at his numbers. Even with Gronk back Sunday, he still put up pedestrian numbers. I mentioned in my fantasy football preview of the AFC East that the Pats actually run the ball a lot, despite Brady's reputation as a great QB. Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden both got rushing TDs, while Brady threw for zero and had an interception. He's a big name player, putting up mediocre to awful production. Speaking of which...
Fantasy Football Is A Stats Game, Not A Name Game
Did you know that Denarius Moore, who has already had his bye week, has more fantasy points than the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Steve Smith? Fred Jackson and Knowshon Moreno are in the Top 10 for running backs. Sam Bradford is in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks. The Chiefs, not the Seahawks, Bears, or 49ers, are the top scoring fantasy defense. Knowing that this is a stats game, and not a name game, will help you when putting players in your starting lineup and making trades. I don't care if the guy is named Mark Sanchez, if he's able to put up consistent fantasy numbers, then I want him in my lineup. Use this knowledge to your advantage if you're trying to sell high or buy low on a player.
Trades on Trades on Trades
Trading is awesome. I've heard of no-trade leagues, and those sound like no-fun leagues to me. Started From The Bottom by Drake should be the official theme song of trading because it allows new life to be breathed into your team. It also just shakes up the league and makes things more interesting down the stretch. I have made 5 trades so far this year, and will probably make more before it's all said and done. My luck this year has actually come in the form of trades I have proposed to other players that have gotten rejected. Players I tried to trade for: Eli Manning, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, and David Wilson. Players I have gotten in trades: Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Calvin Johnson (but then traded him away, sad face), Ray Rice, Andrew Luck, and Stevie Johnson. Players I have given away: Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins (in both leagues), Cecil Shorts, Daryl Richardson, Tony Gonzalez (after his Monday Night explosion), and Marshawn Lynch.
So as you can see, with any trade, there's some give and take. I made a mistake giving up Johnson and Lynch, but I like all the players I've received. The Johnson trade is a perfect example, however, of trading for need. The trade was Johnson for Rice and we swapped defenses as well, although that's turning out to be a non-factor. Anyways, I had Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, and Stevie Johnson as my other receivers in a non-PPR league. My running backs, however, were Stevan Ridley (who had not performed well up to that point), Zac Stacy, Ronnie Hillman, and Ben Tate. With that in mind, I felt I could afford to give up an elite receiver for what I thought was, and still think can be, an elite RB. Johnson will probably help the team I traded him to more than Rice will help me, but that's the thing; Rice will still help me. Trades are about improving your team, not about how much you will think it will help the other team. In the end, the question was would Rice and the player I put in to replace Johnson outscore Johnson and one of my other RBs on a weekly basis? I thought the answer was yes, so I pulled the trigger. You might win some, you'll definitely lose some, but trades are one of the more exciting aspects of fantasy football.
Also, be sure to know when your league's trade deadline is, if you have one. Most deadlines are early to mid-November.
Follow The Future, Don't Follow The Points
This is just to remind you that just because a player put up a monster game last week out of nowhere, doesn't mean you should scramble to pick him up. Obviously a guy like Julius Thomas is an exception to the rule, but most of the time when a player out of nowhere puts up a good game, that will be their best game of the year. So if you pick him up, chances are, he'll never be as good on your team as he was off of it. For instance, Joseph Fauria tight end for the Lions, was a popular add this past week due to his three touchdown performance the week prior. The problem was no one had him on their team that week, he only had three catches, he had already put up three zeroes earlier in the year, and he predictably put up one catch for 15 yards this past Sunday when people were probably actually playing him. I will say it right now that Fauria will not have another game like that the rest of the year, and might not even put up three more TDs the rest of the way. A better option would have been a guy like Jordan Reed or Timothy Wright who were getting targets and, while maybe not putting up a monster day like Fauria, would give you consistent chances to make an impact. The hype train builds up on some of these players fast. Just don't be the one driving the train when it crashes.
Players That Will Do Better The Second Half of the Season
Chris Johnson, everyone on Pittsburgh, Josh Freeman, Zach Ertz, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Cordarrelle Patterson, Miles Austin, Adrian Peterson (scary, I know), Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, RG3, Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas, Jordan Reed, Roddy White
Players That Will Do Worse The Second Half of the Season
Phillip Rivers, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, Panthers D/ST, Tony Gonzalez, Charles Clay, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Players In The Top 5 Of Their Position That Will Do Even Better
Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Seattle D/ST, 49ers D/ST
Matty O
Injuries
The ultimate equalizer. Take Jay Cutler this week for example. Having put up three solid outings in a row heading into Sunday, Cutler would have probably put up fairly decent numbers. Although he already threw one interception, he was injured early in the second quarter in a game that was, and became, a shootout. The Bears only led two times during that game, as Josh McCown threw the ball 20 times in Cutler's relief. In both of my leagues, it could be argued that had Cutler played the whole game, those teams that owned him would have won.
The problem is that, unless it's a player like Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray, it is nearly impossible to predict an injury. Who would have guessed that Cutler, Arian Foster, Jermichael Finley, Sam Bradford, Doug Martin, Nick Foles, and others would have gotten injured this past weekend? I sure didn't. This is why depth for your team going forward is so important. Come playoff time, if you don't have a solid player at every position, chances are you're going to lose. Injuries are hard to predict, but being prepared for those injuries is not.
Injuries, Part Deux
While players getting injured is bad news, players coming back from injury is great news! Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Andre Brown, Nate Burleson, Michael Crabtree, Shane Vereen, and Dennis Pitta are just a few marquee names that are coming back from injury. When assessing whether to stash a player and use up a roster spot, there are two things to keep in mind. First off, when are they coming back? Harvin reportedly could be back for the Monday night game this week, and Brown should be back in Week 9 after the Giants' bye, so those two should be owned in all leagues. The other players have less clear timetables. Teams toss around weeks when a player is expected back, but no one really knows for sure. Just look at the Gronk debacle at the start of this year. With the other players, I would say track their progress unless you have a spot you can spare, but since bye weeks are still not over, it's unlikely that you do.
The second thing to keep in mind is how effective will this player be? Take Michael Crabtree for example. He will be coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon. Not the easiest thing to come back from. Once the injury itself has healed, then he has to get back into game shape. Then he has to get back into the flow of the game (thankfully he played with Kaepernick last year). Then, in the playoffs, he'll likely have to face Richard Sherman of the Seahawks, followed by Darrelle Rivas of the Bucs. No thanks. Kaepernick does not look nearly as good as he did last year. While Crabtree's absence probably has something to do with it, it cannot account for all of it. Kaepernick is 24th in the league in passing attempts, despite the 49ers being 11th in points per game. They're a very run heavy team and I don't see Crabtree producing like he did last year. So while he is a big name that is coming back, it's likely that he won't be as effective as last year, and you might waste a roster spot, or lose a matchup if he puts up a dud and he's in your starting lineup.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of schedule can sometimes be the difference between hanging onto a player or trading him away. It might also be the explanation for a player's early, unexpected dominance, or conversely a player's early, unexpected struggles. Take a guy like Chris Johnson for example. The defenses he's had to face so far along with their rank in rush defense have been the Steelers (11th), Texans (27th), Chargers (19th), Jets (5th), Chiefs (22nd), Seahawks (10th), and 49ers (20th). While that might not seem that bad, I will say that the Chiefs and 49ers are much better than their ranking would imply. The Chiefs were gashed in the Thursday night game against the Eagles back in September, but have tightened up since. San Fran was pummeled in all phases of the game in Seattle, then followed it up with another dud against Indy where they were run all over. Apart from that, they've been stout.
Johnson, predictably, ran for his two highest rushing totals against the Texans and Chargers, gaining 96 and 90 yards, respectively. He gained 70 yards against the Steelers, but needed 25 carries to do so, and he has rushed for no more than 39 yards in any of the other four contests. A forward looking owner, however, will see the Titans play the Rams, Jacksonville (twice), Indy (twice), Raiders, Broncos, and Cardinals. Juicy matchups to say the least. There's certainly a chance he still doesn't perform as his yards per carry is at a terrible 3.2, good for 41st in the league. But if you're looking for a reason to hold onto a player, strength of schedule might be it.
They Are Who We Thought They Were...Well, Maybe Not
Before the season starts, everyone thinks they have all the answers. Adrian Peterson will break the rushing record, the Texans will be an elite team, and Jacksonville will be terrible. Well, 1 for 3, baseball Hall of Fame batting average right there. By now though, it is safe to assume that players are who they are. Unfortunately, I watched the Monday Night game last night and there's no way I can believe that Eli Manning will get better later on in the year. I thought that at one point and even tried to trade for him (thankfully that was rejected). He is after all a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback and should have to throw the ball because their defense is so bad. His offensive line though, is just so bad, and his receivers aren't as good as they would have you believe. Yes, he avoided the huge, costly mistake last night, but it's not like the Vikings defense is the '85 Bears.
At this point, barring an injury, most players will give you the production you have come to expect. With that in mind, would it be crazy to bench Tom Brady as your QB this year? No, of course not. Look at his numbers. Even with Gronk back Sunday, he still put up pedestrian numbers. I mentioned in my fantasy football preview of the AFC East that the Pats actually run the ball a lot, despite Brady's reputation as a great QB. Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden both got rushing TDs, while Brady threw for zero and had an interception. He's a big name player, putting up mediocre to awful production. Speaking of which...
Fantasy Football Is A Stats Game, Not A Name Game
Did you know that Denarius Moore, who has already had his bye week, has more fantasy points than the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Steve Smith? Fred Jackson and Knowshon Moreno are in the Top 10 for running backs. Sam Bradford is in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks. The Chiefs, not the Seahawks, Bears, or 49ers, are the top scoring fantasy defense. Knowing that this is a stats game, and not a name game, will help you when putting players in your starting lineup and making trades. I don't care if the guy is named Mark Sanchez, if he's able to put up consistent fantasy numbers, then I want him in my lineup. Use this knowledge to your advantage if you're trying to sell high or buy low on a player.
Trades on Trades on Trades
Trading is awesome. I've heard of no-trade leagues, and those sound like no-fun leagues to me. Started From The Bottom by Drake should be the official theme song of trading because it allows new life to be breathed into your team. It also just shakes up the league and makes things more interesting down the stretch. I have made 5 trades so far this year, and will probably make more before it's all said and done. My luck this year has actually come in the form of trades I have proposed to other players that have gotten rejected. Players I tried to trade for: Eli Manning, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, and David Wilson. Players I have gotten in trades: Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Calvin Johnson (but then traded him away, sad face), Ray Rice, Andrew Luck, and Stevie Johnson. Players I have given away: Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins (in both leagues), Cecil Shorts, Daryl Richardson, Tony Gonzalez (after his Monday Night explosion), and Marshawn Lynch.
So as you can see, with any trade, there's some give and take. I made a mistake giving up Johnson and Lynch, but I like all the players I've received. The Johnson trade is a perfect example, however, of trading for need. The trade was Johnson for Rice and we swapped defenses as well, although that's turning out to be a non-factor. Anyways, I had Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, and Stevie Johnson as my other receivers in a non-PPR league. My running backs, however, were Stevan Ridley (who had not performed well up to that point), Zac Stacy, Ronnie Hillman, and Ben Tate. With that in mind, I felt I could afford to give up an elite receiver for what I thought was, and still think can be, an elite RB. Johnson will probably help the team I traded him to more than Rice will help me, but that's the thing; Rice will still help me. Trades are about improving your team, not about how much you will think it will help the other team. In the end, the question was would Rice and the player I put in to replace Johnson outscore Johnson and one of my other RBs on a weekly basis? I thought the answer was yes, so I pulled the trigger. You might win some, you'll definitely lose some, but trades are one of the more exciting aspects of fantasy football.
Also, be sure to know when your league's trade deadline is, if you have one. Most deadlines are early to mid-November.
Follow The Future, Don't Follow The Points
This is just to remind you that just because a player put up a monster game last week out of nowhere, doesn't mean you should scramble to pick him up. Obviously a guy like Julius Thomas is an exception to the rule, but most of the time when a player out of nowhere puts up a good game, that will be their best game of the year. So if you pick him up, chances are, he'll never be as good on your team as he was off of it. For instance, Joseph Fauria tight end for the Lions, was a popular add this past week due to his three touchdown performance the week prior. The problem was no one had him on their team that week, he only had three catches, he had already put up three zeroes earlier in the year, and he predictably put up one catch for 15 yards this past Sunday when people were probably actually playing him. I will say it right now that Fauria will not have another game like that the rest of the year, and might not even put up three more TDs the rest of the way. A better option would have been a guy like Jordan Reed or Timothy Wright who were getting targets and, while maybe not putting up a monster day like Fauria, would give you consistent chances to make an impact. The hype train builds up on some of these players fast. Just don't be the one driving the train when it crashes.
Players That Will Do Better The Second Half of the Season
Chris Johnson, everyone on Pittsburgh, Josh Freeman, Zach Ertz, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Cordarrelle Patterson, Miles Austin, Adrian Peterson (scary, I know), Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, RG3, Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas, Jordan Reed, Roddy White
Players That Will Do Worse The Second Half of the Season
Phillip Rivers, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, Panthers D/ST, Tony Gonzalez, Charles Clay, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Players In The Top 5 Of Their Position That Will Do Even Better
Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Seattle D/ST, 49ers D/ST
Matty O
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Trent Richardson Trade In Depth
If you haven't heard the news yet, then I would like to inform you that Trent Richardson of the Cleveland Browns has been traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick. Richardson, the number three overall pick in 2012 from Alabama, rushed for 950 yards and 11 TDs his rookie year in 15 games. It's not so much the trade that surprised me, but just that there were no rumblings about this going on before the trade was made. Usually you'll hear about guys who are on the block or teams that are looking for help, but this one threw me off guard. Yes the Colts just lost Vick Ballard for the year, but wasn't he supposed to be the number two back anyways behind Ahmad Bradshaw? The timing was also strange as we are just two games into the NFL season. I've already seen reactions supporting and lamenting this trade, so I will take a look from both sides and dig deeper into this trade.
Indianapolis Colts
If I'm the Colts, as of right now, I am ecstatic about this trade. You give up a first round pick next year which, given how well the Colts are projected to do this year, would have been somewhere in the range of the mid to late 20s, for the third overall draft pick from two drafts ago. Yes, please! The Colts now have a franchise QB (Andrew Luck), a veteran play maker at WR (Reggie Wayne), and a quality RB (Richardson). Even though they have all these weapons on offense, I still think they need to shore up their defense before thinking Super Bowl, but getting Richardson for their first rounder is a steal in my opinion.
The only thing that confuses me a bit about this deal is, as I mentioned before, the fact that they brought in Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason to be the featured back. Obviously Bradshaw does not have the best of all injury histories, but if they wanted to, they could have held onto their pick next year and picked up a veteran free agent to fill the void left by Vick Ballard. Clearly though, the Colts feel they are set for the future and are willing to bypass said draft pick next year.
Cleveland Browns
From the Colts perspective, it was a pretty simple deal. From the Browns perspective, there's a whole lot of stuff to analyze. Let's start with the current state of their team. Now that Richardson is gone, that leaves Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey as the two RBs on the roster. As of this writing Willis McGahee is not on the roster, though there are many rumors suggesting he will be. Regardless, a significant downgrade at that position. With starting QB Bradon Weeden now out as well, it looks like the Browns are chasing after the number one overall pick next year.
Another stat that it looks like they could be chasing is the dreaded 0-16. They still have to face teams like the Patriots, Packers, and Bears. The only games left on their slate that I could see them winning would be Week 13 vs Jacksonville (which could decide who gets the number one overall pick), and Week 16 at the Jets. The Jets game is a bit of a reach given how good the Jets defense is and how awful the Browns offense is now, but you never know. Just trying to give them some hope. They've pretty much given up on 2013 and are looking towards the future. The question is, by giving up Richardson, did they truly make the best choice for the future of this franchise? Let's investigate.
Although the Browns won't outright say it, this trade makes it clear that they do not trust Brandon Weeden and are looking to obtain a high draft pick to select a QB in the 2014 draft. Some of the more talked about QB names are Teddy Bridgewater, Tahj Boyd, and Johnny Manziel. So what they are banking on is that they can find a RB later in the draft to replace Richardson (No. 3 overall), but they need this top pick to get a quality QB. Well Cleveland, I ran some numbers for you and here's what I found:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ahl64bit0mEodHdQT0hRNVEzX01JQm91MjVPbjJvTkE&output=html
There you will find all 32 teams with their starting QB and RB and the pick that they were selected at. I also made columns for if I felt they were an established starter or not. I didn't really set exact parameters so you may disagree with some of the choices, but for the most part, I feel it is accurate (also, those a's in the column were supposed to be check marks, but didn't transfer correctly from Excel to Google Spreadsheet). Also, some teams currently do not have a clear cut RB starter (Saints, Steelers) so I just went with what their team website depth chart said. So what does this data tell us?
Well, on the surface, it would appear that the Browns made the right move. Romo and Pryor were the only QBs not selected in the actual NFL draft (remember Pryor had to be selected in the supplemental draft due to an NCAA investigation), while four running backs went undrafted. The average pick for a starting QB in the NFL is about 37, or the beginning of the second round, whereas the average pick for a starting RB in the NFL is about 83, or the middle of the third round. This implies that you have to get your QB early, but you can find a RB late. Digging deeper, however, reveals this discrepancy to not be so large.
The Browns are clearly looking for a QB they can ride for the future and to postseason success, not just one to have around. If you calculate the average pick of QBs that I feel are established starters in the league, the number stays about the same at 36.86. If I do the same thing for RBs, however, the difference between QBs and RBs becomes much smaller as the average pick of RBs that I feel are established starters in the league goes down to 62. This would sneak them into the second round along with the QBs. Now, I realize there are tons of other factors involved and, again, the established starters metric is subjective, but this tells me that your chances of getting a quality RB early in the draft is about the same as getting a quality QB in the draft.
Now, let's take a look at Cleveland's draft history. The hype that is building in Cleveland is that now for the 2014 draft, they will have two first round picks and seven in the first four rounds. That's nice, if you know what to do with them. Let's go year by year and see how the Browns have done recently in the first four rounds. I'll start with 2007 to give them the benefit of the doubt because they selected Joe Thomas in the first round, one of the best offensive linemen in the game right now. Also drafted that year, however, was Brady Quinn (22) and Eric Wright (53), neither of which are still on the team.
The Browns had zero picks in 2008 in the first three rounds and used their two fourth rounders on Beau Bell (104) and Martin Rucker (111). They had a grand total of one start for the Browns between them. 2009 brought more picks, but the same disappointing results. Alex Mack (21) worked out, but Brian Robiskie (36), Mohamed Massaquoi (50), David Veikune (52), and Kaluka Maiava (104) are no longer on the team. 2010 brought in Joe Haden (7), but also Montario Hardesty (59) and Colt McCoy (85). 2011 may have been their best draft selecting Phil Taylor (21), Greg Little (59), and Jordan Cameron (102) who is turning out to be an elite TE in this league. Then 2012 came and Richardson (3) and Weeden (22) were united to supposedly be the future for the Browns. Well, Richardson is now off the team and it looks like Weeden is about to be replaced in the next year or two. So should there really be all this hype in Cleveland about how these draft picks will translate to the future?
Personally, I think it was a mistake to get rid of Richardson. I think he'll be a solid player in this league for years to come. Is Weeden old? Yep. Does he need to be replaced? Probably. But I still think you have about as good odds of finding a quality QB late in the draft as you do of finding a quality RB late. With Richardson, you know that you have a quality player. Can we be certain that Teddy Bridgewater will be the next great QB? I'm sure Mel Kiper will tell you so, but we can't be 100% certain until we see him at the NFL level. We've seen Richardson excel at this level on a bad team. I understand needing to rebuild, but giving up a second year RB for the possibility of drafting a QB who might be good is risky to say the least.
Maybe I'm underestimating the Browns' ability to draft. Maybe they know something about Richardson that I don't know. Perhaps he was bad for team chemistry or had private off the field issues. All I know is he was a quality back in a day and age where good RBs seem to be a dying breed. I just think that rebuilding around Richardson would have been better than rebuilding around whoever they draft next year.
Matty O
Indianapolis Colts
If I'm the Colts, as of right now, I am ecstatic about this trade. You give up a first round pick next year which, given how well the Colts are projected to do this year, would have been somewhere in the range of the mid to late 20s, for the third overall draft pick from two drafts ago. Yes, please! The Colts now have a franchise QB (Andrew Luck), a veteran play maker at WR (Reggie Wayne), and a quality RB (Richardson). Even though they have all these weapons on offense, I still think they need to shore up their defense before thinking Super Bowl, but getting Richardson for their first rounder is a steal in my opinion.
The only thing that confuses me a bit about this deal is, as I mentioned before, the fact that they brought in Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason to be the featured back. Obviously Bradshaw does not have the best of all injury histories, but if they wanted to, they could have held onto their pick next year and picked up a veteran free agent to fill the void left by Vick Ballard. Clearly though, the Colts feel they are set for the future and are willing to bypass said draft pick next year.
Cleveland Browns
From the Colts perspective, it was a pretty simple deal. From the Browns perspective, there's a whole lot of stuff to analyze. Let's start with the current state of their team. Now that Richardson is gone, that leaves Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey as the two RBs on the roster. As of this writing Willis McGahee is not on the roster, though there are many rumors suggesting he will be. Regardless, a significant downgrade at that position. With starting QB Bradon Weeden now out as well, it looks like the Browns are chasing after the number one overall pick next year.
Another stat that it looks like they could be chasing is the dreaded 0-16. They still have to face teams like the Patriots, Packers, and Bears. The only games left on their slate that I could see them winning would be Week 13 vs Jacksonville (which could decide who gets the number one overall pick), and Week 16 at the Jets. The Jets game is a bit of a reach given how good the Jets defense is and how awful the Browns offense is now, but you never know. Just trying to give them some hope. They've pretty much given up on 2013 and are looking towards the future. The question is, by giving up Richardson, did they truly make the best choice for the future of this franchise? Let's investigate.
Although the Browns won't outright say it, this trade makes it clear that they do not trust Brandon Weeden and are looking to obtain a high draft pick to select a QB in the 2014 draft. Some of the more talked about QB names are Teddy Bridgewater, Tahj Boyd, and Johnny Manziel. So what they are banking on is that they can find a RB later in the draft to replace Richardson (No. 3 overall), but they need this top pick to get a quality QB. Well Cleveland, I ran some numbers for you and here's what I found:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ahl64bit0mEodHdQT0hRNVEzX01JQm91MjVPbjJvTkE&output=html
There you will find all 32 teams with their starting QB and RB and the pick that they were selected at. I also made columns for if I felt they were an established starter or not. I didn't really set exact parameters so you may disagree with some of the choices, but for the most part, I feel it is accurate (also, those a's in the column were supposed to be check marks, but didn't transfer correctly from Excel to Google Spreadsheet). Also, some teams currently do not have a clear cut RB starter (Saints, Steelers) so I just went with what their team website depth chart said. So what does this data tell us?
Well, on the surface, it would appear that the Browns made the right move. Romo and Pryor were the only QBs not selected in the actual NFL draft (remember Pryor had to be selected in the supplemental draft due to an NCAA investigation), while four running backs went undrafted. The average pick for a starting QB in the NFL is about 37, or the beginning of the second round, whereas the average pick for a starting RB in the NFL is about 83, or the middle of the third round. This implies that you have to get your QB early, but you can find a RB late. Digging deeper, however, reveals this discrepancy to not be so large.
The Browns are clearly looking for a QB they can ride for the future and to postseason success, not just one to have around. If you calculate the average pick of QBs that I feel are established starters in the league, the number stays about the same at 36.86. If I do the same thing for RBs, however, the difference between QBs and RBs becomes much smaller as the average pick of RBs that I feel are established starters in the league goes down to 62. This would sneak them into the second round along with the QBs. Now, I realize there are tons of other factors involved and, again, the established starters metric is subjective, but this tells me that your chances of getting a quality RB early in the draft is about the same as getting a quality QB in the draft.
Now, let's take a look at Cleveland's draft history. The hype that is building in Cleveland is that now for the 2014 draft, they will have two first round picks and seven in the first four rounds. That's nice, if you know what to do with them. Let's go year by year and see how the Browns have done recently in the first four rounds. I'll start with 2007 to give them the benefit of the doubt because they selected Joe Thomas in the first round, one of the best offensive linemen in the game right now. Also drafted that year, however, was Brady Quinn (22) and Eric Wright (53), neither of which are still on the team.
The Browns had zero picks in 2008 in the first three rounds and used their two fourth rounders on Beau Bell (104) and Martin Rucker (111). They had a grand total of one start for the Browns between them. 2009 brought more picks, but the same disappointing results. Alex Mack (21) worked out, but Brian Robiskie (36), Mohamed Massaquoi (50), David Veikune (52), and Kaluka Maiava (104) are no longer on the team. 2010 brought in Joe Haden (7), but also Montario Hardesty (59) and Colt McCoy (85). 2011 may have been their best draft selecting Phil Taylor (21), Greg Little (59), and Jordan Cameron (102) who is turning out to be an elite TE in this league. Then 2012 came and Richardson (3) and Weeden (22) were united to supposedly be the future for the Browns. Well, Richardson is now off the team and it looks like Weeden is about to be replaced in the next year or two. So should there really be all this hype in Cleveland about how these draft picks will translate to the future?
Personally, I think it was a mistake to get rid of Richardson. I think he'll be a solid player in this league for years to come. Is Weeden old? Yep. Does he need to be replaced? Probably. But I still think you have about as good odds of finding a quality QB late in the draft as you do of finding a quality RB late. With Richardson, you know that you have a quality player. Can we be certain that Teddy Bridgewater will be the next great QB? I'm sure Mel Kiper will tell you so, but we can't be 100% certain until we see him at the NFL level. We've seen Richardson excel at this level on a bad team. I understand needing to rebuild, but giving up a second year RB for the possibility of drafting a QB who might be good is risky to say the least.
Maybe I'm underestimating the Browns' ability to draft. Maybe they know something about Richardson that I don't know. Perhaps he was bad for team chemistry or had private off the field issues. All I know is he was a quality back in a day and age where good RBs seem to be a dying breed. I just think that rebuilding around Richardson would have been better than rebuilding around whoever they draft next year.
Matty O
Friday, August 23, 2013
Fantasy Draft Strategy
This post will go through everything you need to know to have the most successful draft possible. Even though you can trade and acquire players off the waiver wire in season, the draft is usually what determines how well you will do in fantasy that year. Save for a lopsided trade or an Alfred Morris type who explodes off the waiver wire, most people will have to ride it out with their draft day players whether they want to or not. Here are some helpful strategies to make your roster the envy of your league mates.
League Types (The most common I have seen)
Standard - This is just your standard league with default settings. Great for beginners or people who just want to jump right in without worrying about how changing points or lineups will affect the league. Most of the articles you see that contains fantasy advice are based off of standard leagues.
PPR - PPR, or point per reception, are leagues that award one point for every catch a player makes. This obviously raises the value of wide receivers and pass catching running backs (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush). At the same time, this decreases the value of quarterbacks and blocking tight ends. PPR was developed because of the over emphasis of having elite running backs in standard leagues. This allows players like Danny Amendola to be elite options.
2 Quarterback - I've personally never been in such a league, but some leagues use two quarterbacks with the reasoning that picking a QB in a 10 or 12 team league is too easy since there are 32 teams in the NFL. These leagues obviously boost the value of QBs and force you to take a QB earlier than you normally would.
Bonus Points - This is my least favorite kind of scoring, but some leagues award bonuses when players reach certain statistical categories or do certain things. For instance, you might get a point bonus for a TD pass of 60+ yards, then a higher bonus for one of 70+ yards, and so on. I think that system is a bit gimmicky, but if you are doing that, then I would target players like Torrey Smith and Chris Givens who may only catch a few balls a game, but one of them is probably going deep.
You Are Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
This is particularly important to remember in the early rounds. For instance, Calvin Johnson will be very tempting to take in the first round. There's a good chance that if you're picking at the end of the first round that the players available will be something like Johnson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy. Will Johnson outscore the two backs in overall points at the end of the year? Probably. But given how deep wide receiver is and how shallow running back is, it would make more sense to draft Morris or McCoy. Here's an example.
Team X will have the 9th pick and choose Johnson . Team Y will have the 10th and 11th picks (due to the snake draft format) and they will go with the RB-RB strategy and pick Morris and McCoy. Team X, in need of a RB, could go with Steven Jackson with the 12th pick. At this point, the teams look fairly even, but the problems start at the next picks for these teams. Team X won't get another pick until number 29. At this point, the next three running backs available will be David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. A timeshare, unproven back, and two injury prone players. Team Y, meanwhile already has his two backs. The wide receivers available when he picks will be Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. I would trust these three receivers over those three running backs any day of the week. This situation will continue for these two teams even further into the draft, causing Team X to reach for players, while Team Y can draft fairly comfortably. Just remember that your 8th round pick can be just as important as your 1st round pick.
If You Ain't First, You Better Be Last
I'm talking here about quarterback and tight end. At the QB position, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I would even consider taking early. Then, I would load up on RBs and WRs. As mentioned in the above section, if you take a non-RB early, you're just setting yourself up for a bad draft. Brees and Rodgers are good players and will probably finish with the most fantasy points this year, but the point differential between the first and 10th QB in 2012 (78) was not as much as the differential between the first and 10th RB (107). If you have already secured your two starting RBs, then I would consider going after Brees or Rodgers, but if not, hold steady and take a Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford who will finish in the top 10 anyways.
The same goes for tight end where Jimmy Graham should be the only one taken early. PPR obviously changes this as I would also recommend Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez to be taken higher than normal. For standard leagues, however, you can find plenty of guys late. Graham will most likely lead all tight ends in points this year, but with so many upside guys (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett), there's no reason to waste a high pick on a TE early. The one owner that gets Graham will probably outscore your TE most weeks, but you'll probably be competitive with the rest of your league mates because their TEs won't be any good either.
Since there are 32 teams in the league, you can find a quality QB or TE in the 10th round because, well, there are 10 pretty good QBs and TEs out there. Since every owner only needs one, it doesn't make sense to reach for them. It's very possible this year that you could actually draft two QBs late and just rotate them in and out and play the matchups. Any QB can go off with a good matchup, and there are certainly more than 10 decent QBs in the NFL. A rotational system might work this year, allowing you to load up on your other positions.
Risky vs Safe
There will come a point in the draft where someone is staring Darren McFadden in the face. The knock on McFadden is he is injury prone, plays behind a horrendous offensive line, and will probably see stacked boxes since his QB play is so bad. But every time he is up to be drafted, there's that one owner that says to himself, "Alright, this is the year he stays healthy and plays like the pro he was supposed to be." He is drafted, he is injured in Week 6, and the owner scrambles to find a decent replacement. This is really a boom or bust strategy when drafting players like these with known risks. If McFadden were to play all 16 games and somehow play up to his skill level, then that owner would probably be in the playoffs, if not in the championship game. If not, however, then the pick is wasted and the mad dash to the waiver wire is on.
The safe owner picks players with a history of being low risk, putting up numbers, but with perhaps a more limited ceiling than a McFadden. An example of a player like that would be Steve Smith, WR for the Panthers. He's not going to win you any matchups by himself and won't wow any of the other owners when you select him on draft day. Still, you know he's going to go for at least 1,000 yards and a few scores as he's proven throughout his career. He's performed well with different QBs, and particularly well with current QB Cam Newton. His upside is certainly lower than a McFadden, but you're pretty much guaranteed that he will put up solid numbers and will be available all year.
Neither strategy is particularly "right," it just depends on if you want to roll the dice or not. I'm also not saying that the safe way guarantees that you won't have a team that does poorly, as anything can happen in football. The safe way just decreases the amount of worry that you'll probably have from week to week about your team.
Pass With Your Heart, But Don't Reach With Your Heart
What I mean by this is that you can come into the draft with a bias towards your favorite team and against your rivals, but don't let it cause you to make dumb draft choices. For instance, if you are a Bears fan and Packers WR James Jones is the best available player on the board, then by all means pass him for someone that you know might perform a little less poorly, but is not a Packer. On the other hand, don't go taking Matt Forte with the number one overall pick just because he's your homeboy and you think he's going to do well this year. He probably will do well, but reaching for a guy just because he plays for your favorite team is a bit absurd.
The Same Team Debate
There are differing schools of thought when it comes to drafting players that are on the same team. For instance, would it be smart for me to draft Matt Forte as well as Brandon Marshall even though they're both on the Bears? Well, it depends. For me, I don't like drafting a RB and WR on the same team, but I wouldn't mind a QB and WR or two WRs. The QB-WR combo is especially enticing because you get "double points" every time a pass is completed to that WR. For instance, if you own Jay Cutler and Marshall and they connect for a 25 yard TD, then you would get 1 point for Cutler's 25 passing yards, 2.5 points for Marshall's receiving yards, 4 or 6 (depending on your scoring settings) points for Cutler's passing TD, and 6 points for Marshall's receiving TD. Up to 15.5 points on one play! The downside is that during their bye week or if they have a bad game, then you'll have two positions that will under perform instead of just one.
This strategy obviously works best with the offenses that score the most. For instance, if you had Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White last year, you probably did pretty good even though they are all on the same team. Jones and White take targets away from each other, but when that offense is clicking (and is usually is) both of them can put up more points than a different receiver, who might get the most targets, on another team. This year, I would say this strategy applies to players on the Packers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons.
Bye Week Vacation
One strategy I have seen utilized to combat bye weeks in the middle of the year is to draft all of your starters with the same bye week. This way, even though, barring a miracle, you essentially forfeit that week, you are at full strength for the other weeks while your opponents will likely be missing one or multiple starters. It's an interesting strategy to use, but very shortsighted. With all the injuries and depth chart movement that goes on during the year, it is highly likely that one of your starters won't even play all 16 weeks. There's usually also plenty of players to plug in during bye weeks that can have a good week based on their matchup. For instance, last year my QB had his bye in Week 7. I picked up Josh Freeman off of waivers because they were playing the hilariously bad Saints defense. Freeman went for 420 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Trying to get all your starter's bye weeks to match up is near impossible on draft day, so just draft as you normally would.
Handcuff
A handcuff in fantasy football applies to running backs and the strategy of drafting their backup regardless of where he is projected to be taken. Handcuffs will usually start going later in drafts. For example, Arian Foster is the number one guy in Houston. If anything were to happen to him, Ben Tate would be the next guy in line. If you didn't have Tate, you essentially just wasted your first round pick because now you have to find someone on waivers or trade for a serviceable back. If you have Tate, however, then you still have a decent back on a good running offense.
This isn't to say you should always take a handcuff. Handcuffs should really only be taken for players on teams that a) have a good offensive line or b) run the ball a lot. For example, drafting a handcuff to the Packers' starting RB wouldn't make much sense. Their offensive line is average at best and they don't run that often. Would that backup RB put up numbers if he were inserted in the lineup? It would just make more sense to pick a high upside player than a handcuff in that scenario. Taking Michael Bush as a handcuff to Forte, however, would make a lot of sense. Forte has missed some games recently and Bush has shown, in Chicago and Oakland, that he can perform when called upon. The Bears' offensive line is much better run blocking than they are at pass blocking, so it is more than likely that Bush will still put up good numbers if anything were to happen to Forte.
The Last 2 Rounds
The last two rounds should be reserved for defenses and kickers. Your league will more than likely have someone reach for Seattle or San Fran's defense and maybe even for a kicker. Do not be that person. The later rounds is when you should be drafting players with upside that could develop into starters or trade bait. Last year, Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver, and New England were all ranked outside of the preseason top 10 last year, but all finished in the top 10 by the end of the year. Defensive staples like the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets however, were projected to be sure thing top 10 defenses and finished 23rd, 14th, and 20th, respectively. There are always multiple defenses that can be taken late that will emerge to be startable.
If you take a kicker prior to the last round, you need to have your head checked. Just wait until the last round and pick one on a good offense.
There it is folks, the last of my fantasy advice I can give you before draft day. I know a lot of drafts will probably be taking place this weekend, with some more taking place next weekend. Drafting well is the first key to a successful fantasy season so just remember a) wait on TE and QB b) RB is shallow and WR is deep c) brains over emotion d) handcuff when necessary e) for the love of God wait until the last round to draft a kicker.
Matty O
League Types (The most common I have seen)
Standard - This is just your standard league with default settings. Great for beginners or people who just want to jump right in without worrying about how changing points or lineups will affect the league. Most of the articles you see that contains fantasy advice are based off of standard leagues.
PPR - PPR, or point per reception, are leagues that award one point for every catch a player makes. This obviously raises the value of wide receivers and pass catching running backs (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush). At the same time, this decreases the value of quarterbacks and blocking tight ends. PPR was developed because of the over emphasis of having elite running backs in standard leagues. This allows players like Danny Amendola to be elite options.
2 Quarterback - I've personally never been in such a league, but some leagues use two quarterbacks with the reasoning that picking a QB in a 10 or 12 team league is too easy since there are 32 teams in the NFL. These leagues obviously boost the value of QBs and force you to take a QB earlier than you normally would.
Bonus Points - This is my least favorite kind of scoring, but some leagues award bonuses when players reach certain statistical categories or do certain things. For instance, you might get a point bonus for a TD pass of 60+ yards, then a higher bonus for one of 70+ yards, and so on. I think that system is a bit gimmicky, but if you are doing that, then I would target players like Torrey Smith and Chris Givens who may only catch a few balls a game, but one of them is probably going deep.
You Are Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
This is particularly important to remember in the early rounds. For instance, Calvin Johnson will be very tempting to take in the first round. There's a good chance that if you're picking at the end of the first round that the players available will be something like Johnson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy. Will Johnson outscore the two backs in overall points at the end of the year? Probably. But given how deep wide receiver is and how shallow running back is, it would make more sense to draft Morris or McCoy. Here's an example.
Team X will have the 9th pick and choose Johnson . Team Y will have the 10th and 11th picks (due to the snake draft format) and they will go with the RB-RB strategy and pick Morris and McCoy. Team X, in need of a RB, could go with Steven Jackson with the 12th pick. At this point, the teams look fairly even, but the problems start at the next picks for these teams. Team X won't get another pick until number 29. At this point, the next three running backs available will be David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. A timeshare, unproven back, and two injury prone players. Team Y, meanwhile already has his two backs. The wide receivers available when he picks will be Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. I would trust these three receivers over those three running backs any day of the week. This situation will continue for these two teams even further into the draft, causing Team X to reach for players, while Team Y can draft fairly comfortably. Just remember that your 8th round pick can be just as important as your 1st round pick.
If You Ain't First, You Better Be Last
I'm talking here about quarterback and tight end. At the QB position, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I would even consider taking early. Then, I would load up on RBs and WRs. As mentioned in the above section, if you take a non-RB early, you're just setting yourself up for a bad draft. Brees and Rodgers are good players and will probably finish with the most fantasy points this year, but the point differential between the first and 10th QB in 2012 (78) was not as much as the differential between the first and 10th RB (107). If you have already secured your two starting RBs, then I would consider going after Brees or Rodgers, but if not, hold steady and take a Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford who will finish in the top 10 anyways.
The same goes for tight end where Jimmy Graham should be the only one taken early. PPR obviously changes this as I would also recommend Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez to be taken higher than normal. For standard leagues, however, you can find plenty of guys late. Graham will most likely lead all tight ends in points this year, but with so many upside guys (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett), there's no reason to waste a high pick on a TE early. The one owner that gets Graham will probably outscore your TE most weeks, but you'll probably be competitive with the rest of your league mates because their TEs won't be any good either.
Since there are 32 teams in the league, you can find a quality QB or TE in the 10th round because, well, there are 10 pretty good QBs and TEs out there. Since every owner only needs one, it doesn't make sense to reach for them. It's very possible this year that you could actually draft two QBs late and just rotate them in and out and play the matchups. Any QB can go off with a good matchup, and there are certainly more than 10 decent QBs in the NFL. A rotational system might work this year, allowing you to load up on your other positions.
Risky vs Safe
There will come a point in the draft where someone is staring Darren McFadden in the face. The knock on McFadden is he is injury prone, plays behind a horrendous offensive line, and will probably see stacked boxes since his QB play is so bad. But every time he is up to be drafted, there's that one owner that says to himself, "Alright, this is the year he stays healthy and plays like the pro he was supposed to be." He is drafted, he is injured in Week 6, and the owner scrambles to find a decent replacement. This is really a boom or bust strategy when drafting players like these with known risks. If McFadden were to play all 16 games and somehow play up to his skill level, then that owner would probably be in the playoffs, if not in the championship game. If not, however, then the pick is wasted and the mad dash to the waiver wire is on.
The safe owner picks players with a history of being low risk, putting up numbers, but with perhaps a more limited ceiling than a McFadden. An example of a player like that would be Steve Smith, WR for the Panthers. He's not going to win you any matchups by himself and won't wow any of the other owners when you select him on draft day. Still, you know he's going to go for at least 1,000 yards and a few scores as he's proven throughout his career. He's performed well with different QBs, and particularly well with current QB Cam Newton. His upside is certainly lower than a McFadden, but you're pretty much guaranteed that he will put up solid numbers and will be available all year.
Neither strategy is particularly "right," it just depends on if you want to roll the dice or not. I'm also not saying that the safe way guarantees that you won't have a team that does poorly, as anything can happen in football. The safe way just decreases the amount of worry that you'll probably have from week to week about your team.
Pass With Your Heart, But Don't Reach With Your Heart
What I mean by this is that you can come into the draft with a bias towards your favorite team and against your rivals, but don't let it cause you to make dumb draft choices. For instance, if you are a Bears fan and Packers WR James Jones is the best available player on the board, then by all means pass him for someone that you know might perform a little less poorly, but is not a Packer. On the other hand, don't go taking Matt Forte with the number one overall pick just because he's your homeboy and you think he's going to do well this year. He probably will do well, but reaching for a guy just because he plays for your favorite team is a bit absurd.
The Same Team Debate
There are differing schools of thought when it comes to drafting players that are on the same team. For instance, would it be smart for me to draft Matt Forte as well as Brandon Marshall even though they're both on the Bears? Well, it depends. For me, I don't like drafting a RB and WR on the same team, but I wouldn't mind a QB and WR or two WRs. The QB-WR combo is especially enticing because you get "double points" every time a pass is completed to that WR. For instance, if you own Jay Cutler and Marshall and they connect for a 25 yard TD, then you would get 1 point for Cutler's 25 passing yards, 2.5 points for Marshall's receiving yards, 4 or 6 (depending on your scoring settings) points for Cutler's passing TD, and 6 points for Marshall's receiving TD. Up to 15.5 points on one play! The downside is that during their bye week or if they have a bad game, then you'll have two positions that will under perform instead of just one.
This strategy obviously works best with the offenses that score the most. For instance, if you had Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White last year, you probably did pretty good even though they are all on the same team. Jones and White take targets away from each other, but when that offense is clicking (and is usually is) both of them can put up more points than a different receiver, who might get the most targets, on another team. This year, I would say this strategy applies to players on the Packers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons.
Bye Week Vacation
One strategy I have seen utilized to combat bye weeks in the middle of the year is to draft all of your starters with the same bye week. This way, even though, barring a miracle, you essentially forfeit that week, you are at full strength for the other weeks while your opponents will likely be missing one or multiple starters. It's an interesting strategy to use, but very shortsighted. With all the injuries and depth chart movement that goes on during the year, it is highly likely that one of your starters won't even play all 16 weeks. There's usually also plenty of players to plug in during bye weeks that can have a good week based on their matchup. For instance, last year my QB had his bye in Week 7. I picked up Josh Freeman off of waivers because they were playing the hilariously bad Saints defense. Freeman went for 420 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Trying to get all your starter's bye weeks to match up is near impossible on draft day, so just draft as you normally would.
Handcuff
A handcuff in fantasy football applies to running backs and the strategy of drafting their backup regardless of where he is projected to be taken. Handcuffs will usually start going later in drafts. For example, Arian Foster is the number one guy in Houston. If anything were to happen to him, Ben Tate would be the next guy in line. If you didn't have Tate, you essentially just wasted your first round pick because now you have to find someone on waivers or trade for a serviceable back. If you have Tate, however, then you still have a decent back on a good running offense.
This isn't to say you should always take a handcuff. Handcuffs should really only be taken for players on teams that a) have a good offensive line or b) run the ball a lot. For example, drafting a handcuff to the Packers' starting RB wouldn't make much sense. Their offensive line is average at best and they don't run that often. Would that backup RB put up numbers if he were inserted in the lineup? It would just make more sense to pick a high upside player than a handcuff in that scenario. Taking Michael Bush as a handcuff to Forte, however, would make a lot of sense. Forte has missed some games recently and Bush has shown, in Chicago and Oakland, that he can perform when called upon. The Bears' offensive line is much better run blocking than they are at pass blocking, so it is more than likely that Bush will still put up good numbers if anything were to happen to Forte.
The Last 2 Rounds
The last two rounds should be reserved for defenses and kickers. Your league will more than likely have someone reach for Seattle or San Fran's defense and maybe even for a kicker. Do not be that person. The later rounds is when you should be drafting players with upside that could develop into starters or trade bait. Last year, Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver, and New England were all ranked outside of the preseason top 10 last year, but all finished in the top 10 by the end of the year. Defensive staples like the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets however, were projected to be sure thing top 10 defenses and finished 23rd, 14th, and 20th, respectively. There are always multiple defenses that can be taken late that will emerge to be startable.
If you take a kicker prior to the last round, you need to have your head checked. Just wait until the last round and pick one on a good offense.
There it is folks, the last of my fantasy advice I can give you before draft day. I know a lot of drafts will probably be taking place this weekend, with some more taking place next weekend. Drafting well is the first key to a successful fantasy season so just remember a) wait on TE and QB b) RB is shallow and WR is deep c) brains over emotion d) handcuff when necessary e) for the love of God wait until the last round to draft a kicker.
Matty O
Thursday, August 22, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
Since Spiller came into the league, his fantasy value has been limited by the fact that he had to split carries in the backfield with the older, slower Fred Jackson. Now, with a new coaching staff and Jackson another year older, all signs point to Spiller getting a lot of touches and being the number one guy in the backfield. He showed what he could do when given the chance last year as he rushed for 100+ yards five times, and reached double digit fantasy points 12 times. This was done despite having six games where he saw less than 10 carries. Good news for PPR leagues is that Spiller also catches out of the backfield as he racked up 43 receptions. Jackson is still in town, but I expect him to be relegated to goal line duties and just giving Spiller a rest once in a while. Spiller is the guy to own in Buffalo.
Busts: None
It was either going to be CJ or no one. Spiller will be taken in the top 5, and the next relevant Bills player isn't going until the late 7th, early 8th round. Who might said character be?
Sleeper: Steve Johnson, WR
Listed as the 78th overall player off the board, Johnson has now posted back to back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Losing Ryan Fitzpatrick to Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel is a bit of a downgrade and chemistry will have to be made with the two new QBs, but for where he is being drafted, I think Johnson will be a great pick. Despite finishing 2012 tied for 18th in receptions (79), he was ninth in the league in targets last year (148). He's the best, most experienced WR they have right now and, similar to in year's past, I expect them to look his way early and often. While reports coming out of Buffalo's camp is that they will run and feed the ball to Spiller more, that doesn't mean they won't pass at all. Johnson will put up another 1,000 yard campaign, something which cannot be said for Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice; three players being drafted around Johnson.
Bottom Line:
The Bills, like the Vikings last year, are putting all their hope in their RB. If Spiller cannot produce, then this offense and team as a whole, will struggle. EJ Manuel might be worth a late round flier, but anyone expecting the next RG3 will be mistaken. He might give you rushing yards some games, but his passing ability and decision making is average at best. Take Spiller, take a chance on Johnson if you're weak at WR, avoid the rest.
New York Jets
Studs: None
It's very rare that a team has zero studs, but then again, just look at last year's Jets. Now, during the offseason, they lost their starting RB (Shonn Greene), their starting TE (Dustin Keller), and their veteran and probably still most skilled receiver is still not back from injury recovery (Santonio Holmes). This team isn't devoid of talent, it's just that no one knows who will emerge, if anyone.
Busts: Chris Ivory, RB
Since he came into the league, Ivory has played on a team with an explosive offense, but a lot of RBs. While in New Orleans, he was usually stuck behind Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram in the battle for carries and playing time. The good news is he will most likely be the number one featured back on a new team that likes to run the football (494 attempts, 6th in the NFL). The bad news is that throughout his career, Ivory has battled multiple injuries, causing him to miss time in training camp and losing reps in practice. Also, even though they ran the ball a lot last year, it's not like they were good at it. They finished 23rd in yards per attempt with a lowly 3.8 YPA. Currently going in the mid fifth round, I think Ivory will disappoint a lot of owners this year.
Sleeper: Jeremy Kerley, WR
Out of all my sleepers, this is probably the one I am least confident about, but you never know. He is miles ahead of any of the other WRs on the roster (Holmes is still not playing), and should see the majority of the targets. I expect the Jets to be behind most games, so the passing game will need to be an option. With Keller gone, it gives Kerley even more chances to make a name for himself. On a terrible offense last year, his yardage total wasn't awful (827) and he did get 96 targets. He'll certainly not be a WR1 or WR2, but if things work out in New York, he could be a serviceable FLEX later on in the year. He is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace is one of the fastest players in the NFL, whose trademark is going deep. He should benefit the Dolphins' offense as a whole by stretching the field and opening up the underneath stuff. When he does break free, however, Ryan Tannehill has the arm to get the ball there. Just like in Pittsburgh, Wallace still comes with the feast or famine warning meaning he has big play ability, but won't show it every week. Just take a look at the second half of the season last year. He puts up four fantasy points combined in Weeks 11-13, and then goes for 112 yards and 2 TDs in Week 14. Then, he finishes the last three games with a combined 10 points. Perhaps a new system and new QB will help improve his consistency.
Busts: Miami Running Backs (Possibly)
The news has changed from Lamar Miller being the number one guy to Miller sharing carries with Daniel Thomas too many times to count. If Miller gets the starting job and the majority of the carries, then I think he is draftable where he is projected. Yet, even into late August when Miller should have had the competition wrapped up by now, there are still rumblings of a backfield committee which is a fantasy owner's worst nightmare. Stay tuned to this scenario. If it is a committee, then anyone that drafts Miller had better get Thomas in the later rounds.
Sleeper: Brian Hartline, WR
My original sleeper, Dustin Keller, was just recently lost for the season due to a low hit in a preseason game. Hartline still fits the bill. While he is no longer the "number one" WR with Wallace in town, I think he is still Tannehill's most trusted weapon, which is important when playing with a second year QB. Despite Tannehill's struggles last year, Hartline still topped 1,000 yards, despite finding the end zone only once. As previously mentioned, with Wallace opening up the middle, Hartline can fill in underneath and rack up yards and, for the PPR people out there, receptions. If chemistry between Tannehill and Wallace doesn't click, look for him to go back to Hartline and for him to have a solid year as someone's FLEX.
Bottom Line:
Losing Reggie Bush and now Dustin Keller really hurts this offense. Sure, Wallace is a nice addition, but it's not enough when you're trying to catch the New England Patriots. I think one, maybe two, players will emerge on this offense to be relevant, but not more than that. I think they finish behind New England once again and miss the playoffs once again.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Stevan Ridley, RB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (Injury Pending)
When Brandon Lloyd left, Aaron Hernandez got caught, Wes Welker went to Denver, and Gronk remained injured, Brady's draft stock dropped like a stone. People forget that none of those players, apart from Lloyd, were anything before they played with Brady. He makes great WRs, not the other way around. They have a lot of great young talent and, when Gronk comes back, will probably not miss a beat. They might have some growing pains and struggles early on, but by the end of the year, Brady will have you saying, "Wes who?"
With BenJarvaus Green-Ellis gone, Ridley showed what he could do. He rushed for over 1200 yards and 12 TDs last year. Also, unlike some highly drafted backs, the Patriots leave him in near the goal line, so I would expect double digit TDs once again. The Patriots' running game is probably the best kept secret in the NFL. People just think Brady, and hurry up, and pass, pass, pass when they think of New England, but there's much more to it than that. The Pats actually had the second most attempts last year behind Seattle and led the league in rushing TDs as well. I think this theme holds and Ridley becomes a top 10 RB you can get in the second round.
Injuries are becoming a concern for the Gronk and it is unsure if he will start the year on the PUP list, which will cost him the first six games of the year. If that is the case, his draft stock will drop significantly. The reason it is still so high is because of how great he is when he does suit up. He was arguably Brady's favorite target along with Welker. I actually think it might be better if he does start on the PUP list. I would rather have a fully healthy, locked and loaded Gronk for the second half of the year and my playoff run, than a decent Gronk being an injury risk for the whole year. Either way, once he starts playing again, I expect his production to stay the same. No drop off here.
Bust: Danny Amendola, WR
11 out of 32 games. That's how many Amendola has been able to play in. He is one of those players that you wonder not if he will get injured, but when. People will point to his high reception and yardage totals in St. Louis, but I believe that was more of a case of him being the only guy there. Although he is touted as the main WR in New England, I'm not sure that is the case. The Pats have some promising upcoming receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) and will be targeting their big tight ends early and often (Gronk when healthy, Zach Sudfield). While I do think he puts up decent numbers, I don't think they will reach WR1 numbers and might even disappoint as a WR2.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
There are quite a few sleepers on this team, but I think Vereen is the best bet to make some noise. Vereen benefits from Danny Woodhead leaving New England for San Diego. In the preseason, Vereen has looked impressive as he's lined up in the backfield and out at receiver to try and get a mismatch against a linebacker. While his value might be limited in standard leagues, I think he is a bona fide lock to be someone's FLEX in PPR. He is a great pass catcher and can move in space. Add in the fact that he will get some carries and chances at TDs, and you have a great value for someone going in the 9th round.
Bottom Line:
Despite all the change on offense, I don't think they miss a step. Brady will get these receivers up to par and once Gronk comes back, this offense will be scary to play against. The Pats should win this division once again as unknown names on this receiving corps will become household names by the time the season is through.
That's the end of the fantasy breakdown series. Thanks for reading folks. With a lot of drafts coming up this weekend, I'll be sure to post my draft strategy article between now and Saturday so you can draft the best team possible. Look for that coming soon.
Matty O
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
Since Spiller came into the league, his fantasy value has been limited by the fact that he had to split carries in the backfield with the older, slower Fred Jackson. Now, with a new coaching staff and Jackson another year older, all signs point to Spiller getting a lot of touches and being the number one guy in the backfield. He showed what he could do when given the chance last year as he rushed for 100+ yards five times, and reached double digit fantasy points 12 times. This was done despite having six games where he saw less than 10 carries. Good news for PPR leagues is that Spiller also catches out of the backfield as he racked up 43 receptions. Jackson is still in town, but I expect him to be relegated to goal line duties and just giving Spiller a rest once in a while. Spiller is the guy to own in Buffalo.
Busts: None
It was either going to be CJ or no one. Spiller will be taken in the top 5, and the next relevant Bills player isn't going until the late 7th, early 8th round. Who might said character be?
Sleeper: Steve Johnson, WR
Listed as the 78th overall player off the board, Johnson has now posted back to back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Losing Ryan Fitzpatrick to Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel is a bit of a downgrade and chemistry will have to be made with the two new QBs, but for where he is being drafted, I think Johnson will be a great pick. Despite finishing 2012 tied for 18th in receptions (79), he was ninth in the league in targets last year (148). He's the best, most experienced WR they have right now and, similar to in year's past, I expect them to look his way early and often. While reports coming out of Buffalo's camp is that they will run and feed the ball to Spiller more, that doesn't mean they won't pass at all. Johnson will put up another 1,000 yard campaign, something which cannot be said for Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice; three players being drafted around Johnson.
Bottom Line:
The Bills, like the Vikings last year, are putting all their hope in their RB. If Spiller cannot produce, then this offense and team as a whole, will struggle. EJ Manuel might be worth a late round flier, but anyone expecting the next RG3 will be mistaken. He might give you rushing yards some games, but his passing ability and decision making is average at best. Take Spiller, take a chance on Johnson if you're weak at WR, avoid the rest.
New York Jets
Studs: None
It's very rare that a team has zero studs, but then again, just look at last year's Jets. Now, during the offseason, they lost their starting RB (Shonn Greene), their starting TE (Dustin Keller), and their veteran and probably still most skilled receiver is still not back from injury recovery (Santonio Holmes). This team isn't devoid of talent, it's just that no one knows who will emerge, if anyone.
Busts: Chris Ivory, RB
Since he came into the league, Ivory has played on a team with an explosive offense, but a lot of RBs. While in New Orleans, he was usually stuck behind Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram in the battle for carries and playing time. The good news is he will most likely be the number one featured back on a new team that likes to run the football (494 attempts, 6th in the NFL). The bad news is that throughout his career, Ivory has battled multiple injuries, causing him to miss time in training camp and losing reps in practice. Also, even though they ran the ball a lot last year, it's not like they were good at it. They finished 23rd in yards per attempt with a lowly 3.8 YPA. Currently going in the mid fifth round, I think Ivory will disappoint a lot of owners this year.
Sleeper: Jeremy Kerley, WR
Out of all my sleepers, this is probably the one I am least confident about, but you never know. He is miles ahead of any of the other WRs on the roster (Holmes is still not playing), and should see the majority of the targets. I expect the Jets to be behind most games, so the passing game will need to be an option. With Keller gone, it gives Kerley even more chances to make a name for himself. On a terrible offense last year, his yardage total wasn't awful (827) and he did get 96 targets. He'll certainly not be a WR1 or WR2, but if things work out in New York, he could be a serviceable FLEX later on in the year. He is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace is one of the fastest players in the NFL, whose trademark is going deep. He should benefit the Dolphins' offense as a whole by stretching the field and opening up the underneath stuff. When he does break free, however, Ryan Tannehill has the arm to get the ball there. Just like in Pittsburgh, Wallace still comes with the feast or famine warning meaning he has big play ability, but won't show it every week. Just take a look at the second half of the season last year. He puts up four fantasy points combined in Weeks 11-13, and then goes for 112 yards and 2 TDs in Week 14. Then, he finishes the last three games with a combined 10 points. Perhaps a new system and new QB will help improve his consistency.
Busts: Miami Running Backs (Possibly)
The news has changed from Lamar Miller being the number one guy to Miller sharing carries with Daniel Thomas too many times to count. If Miller gets the starting job and the majority of the carries, then I think he is draftable where he is projected. Yet, even into late August when Miller should have had the competition wrapped up by now, there are still rumblings of a backfield committee which is a fantasy owner's worst nightmare. Stay tuned to this scenario. If it is a committee, then anyone that drafts Miller had better get Thomas in the later rounds.
Sleeper: Brian Hartline, WR
My original sleeper, Dustin Keller, was just recently lost for the season due to a low hit in a preseason game. Hartline still fits the bill. While he is no longer the "number one" WR with Wallace in town, I think he is still Tannehill's most trusted weapon, which is important when playing with a second year QB. Despite Tannehill's struggles last year, Hartline still topped 1,000 yards, despite finding the end zone only once. As previously mentioned, with Wallace opening up the middle, Hartline can fill in underneath and rack up yards and, for the PPR people out there, receptions. If chemistry between Tannehill and Wallace doesn't click, look for him to go back to Hartline and for him to have a solid year as someone's FLEX.
Bottom Line:
Losing Reggie Bush and now Dustin Keller really hurts this offense. Sure, Wallace is a nice addition, but it's not enough when you're trying to catch the New England Patriots. I think one, maybe two, players will emerge on this offense to be relevant, but not more than that. I think they finish behind New England once again and miss the playoffs once again.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Stevan Ridley, RB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (Injury Pending)
When Brandon Lloyd left, Aaron Hernandez got caught, Wes Welker went to Denver, and Gronk remained injured, Brady's draft stock dropped like a stone. People forget that none of those players, apart from Lloyd, were anything before they played with Brady. He makes great WRs, not the other way around. They have a lot of great young talent and, when Gronk comes back, will probably not miss a beat. They might have some growing pains and struggles early on, but by the end of the year, Brady will have you saying, "Wes who?"
With BenJarvaus Green-Ellis gone, Ridley showed what he could do. He rushed for over 1200 yards and 12 TDs last year. Also, unlike some highly drafted backs, the Patriots leave him in near the goal line, so I would expect double digit TDs once again. The Patriots' running game is probably the best kept secret in the NFL. People just think Brady, and hurry up, and pass, pass, pass when they think of New England, but there's much more to it than that. The Pats actually had the second most attempts last year behind Seattle and led the league in rushing TDs as well. I think this theme holds and Ridley becomes a top 10 RB you can get in the second round.
Injuries are becoming a concern for the Gronk and it is unsure if he will start the year on the PUP list, which will cost him the first six games of the year. If that is the case, his draft stock will drop significantly. The reason it is still so high is because of how great he is when he does suit up. He was arguably Brady's favorite target along with Welker. I actually think it might be better if he does start on the PUP list. I would rather have a fully healthy, locked and loaded Gronk for the second half of the year and my playoff run, than a decent Gronk being an injury risk for the whole year. Either way, once he starts playing again, I expect his production to stay the same. No drop off here.
Bust: Danny Amendola, WR
11 out of 32 games. That's how many Amendola has been able to play in. He is one of those players that you wonder not if he will get injured, but when. People will point to his high reception and yardage totals in St. Louis, but I believe that was more of a case of him being the only guy there. Although he is touted as the main WR in New England, I'm not sure that is the case. The Pats have some promising upcoming receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) and will be targeting their big tight ends early and often (Gronk when healthy, Zach Sudfield). While I do think he puts up decent numbers, I don't think they will reach WR1 numbers and might even disappoint as a WR2.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
There are quite a few sleepers on this team, but I think Vereen is the best bet to make some noise. Vereen benefits from Danny Woodhead leaving New England for San Diego. In the preseason, Vereen has looked impressive as he's lined up in the backfield and out at receiver to try and get a mismatch against a linebacker. While his value might be limited in standard leagues, I think he is a bona fide lock to be someone's FLEX in PPR. He is a great pass catcher and can move in space. Add in the fact that he will get some carries and chances at TDs, and you have a great value for someone going in the 9th round.
Bottom Line:
Despite all the change on offense, I don't think they miss a step. Brady will get these receivers up to par and once Gronk comes back, this offense will be scary to play against. The Pats should win this division once again as unknown names on this receiving corps will become household names by the time the season is through.
That's the end of the fantasy breakdown series. Thanks for reading folks. With a lot of drafts coming up this weekend, I'll be sure to post my draft strategy article between now and Saturday so you can draft the best team possible. Look for that coming soon.
Matty O
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Last year, McCoy was near the top of fantasy draft boards, going somewhere between three and five overall. After a disappointing 2012, his draft stock has dropped a bit, enabling you to get a potential top 3 RB in the late first, perhaps early second depending on how your league drafts. He missed four games last year due to concussion and was limited by Andy Reid's play calling. He still finished with 840 yards and made PPR owners happy with 54 receptions. His five total TDs are what killed him and was one of the reasons the Eagles wound up in last place. New head coach Chip Kelly will run the ball more and, given the wide open style of his offense, should be able to get McCoy into space where he is especially dangerous. I think McCoy has a monster comeback year and thrives in Kelly's system.
Jackson may not have made this section had it not been for Maclin's injury. Jackson once again becomes the number one guy for the Eagles. He had a rough and injury plagued year, playing in only 11 games. The key for Jackson is that Michael Vick appears to be at full health and he's proven he can put up numbers in the past. He had back to back 1,000 yard receiving years in 2009 and 2010, posting 15 TDs in the process. In their first preseason game, Vick connected on a long bomb to Jackson for a 47 yard TD. That's what I expect from Jackson this year. His value is very limited in PPR, but he will have at least three or four chances each game to connect on a long catch and/or TD. Currently projected as the 27th WR off the board, I think he has some value this year as a boom or bust WR.
Bust: None
Like many other teams that have no one to put in the bust category, the Eagles were pretty awful last year. The only one worthy of a bust prediction would be McCoy, but obviously I don't think that will happen. Apart from McCoy, Jackson, and possibly Bryce Brown and Michael Vick, the rest of the Eagles will go undrafted.
Sleeper: Michael Vick, QB
Vick is in the same mold of players like Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray; when they're healthy and play well, then they're fantasy gold, unfortunately they usually don't do that. Still, Vick is one of the most talented runners at the QB position and proved he can still throw the rock every once in a while (threw for over 300 yards three times in 2012). Kelly will bring in a new option read scheme, which could make Vick's rushing numbers even better. It will be up to him to avoid those big hits though. We've seen in the past how Vick's ability can win you a mtachup, so the fact that he is projected as the 16th QB off the board makes him a steal. I would rather select Vick (No. 16 QB) who has top 5 upside, rather than draft Joe Flacco (No. 15 QB) whose upside is little to none. At the very least if Vick goes off early in the season, he can be trade bait. Speed is the name of the game with Kelly's offense, and Vick still has plenty of it.
Bottom Line:
Fantasy wise, the offense looks very exciting. If Kelly can even come close to the numbers his teams put up at Oregon, then many of the Eagles' offensive players will be great to own. In real life, however, I still think they finish last in the division because of their porous defense. The good part about that for fantasy owners? Shootouts. Enter Jackson, McCoy, and Vick to put up numbers.
New York Giants
Studs: Victor Cruz, WR
Cruz is the only consistent, reliable weapon currently on the Giants' roster. With the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, the backfield looks like it is heading towards committee territory with David Wilson and Andre Brown sharing time. The Giants' former number one WR Hakeem Nicks, can't stay healthy, and they lost their breakout tight end in Martellus Bennett to the Bears. Cruz should provide some stability though as he put up another 1,000 yard campaign and bumped his TDs into double digits (10). He would have had an even bigger year had it not been for Eli Manning's atrocious three game slump from Week 8 to Week 10 where he threw for an average of 177 yards for those three games with zero passing TDs. Barring another slump of that magnitude, Cruz will once again put up great numbers as he salsa dances your fantasy team into the playoffs.
Bust: Giants Running Backs
It is certainly possible that either David Wilson or Andre Brown emerges to distinguish themselves, but I'm not sure who at this point. Wilson got a lot of hype from last year as he had two great games to end the year; Week 14 against New Orleans and Week 17 against Philadelphia. He now gets the chance to take over the number one spot with Bradshaw gone, but Brown is lurking. Brown's hype was the exact opposite because his two great games were at the beginning of the year; Week 2 against Tampa Bay and Week 3 in Carolina. Brown actually finished last year with more carries and TDs than Wilson last year, yet is projected lower than him this year. I see a situation developing where either one goes off one week, then the other, etc., or they both perform okay most weeks, but limit each others' fantasy value. If the price is right, I might take one of these two, but probably only as my FLEX and certainly not a RB2.
Sleeper: Brandon Myers, TE
While Bennett was having a breakout year in New York, Myers was having one of his own in Oakland on a much worse team. Myers put up nearly 200 more yards than Bennett with 24 more receptions. Manning clearly enjoys throwing it to his tight ends as he turned Jake Ballard into a usable fantasy TE before Bennett came over from the Cowboys. Myers should slide right into that role and perform even better than both of them. Projected as the 10th TE off the board, Myers could be a value for those owners who wait on TE and load up on the other positions early. If, or when, Nicks gets injured, his value rises even more.
Bottom Line:
The Giants need more consistent QB play from Manning if they are to win the division this year. They have plenty of weapons to do so, including two running backs that are waiting to break out. Cruz is definitely the safest pick here with Nicks being a potential bargain if he can stay healthy (that's a big if).
Washington Redskins
Studs: Robert Griffin III, QB, Alfred Morris, RB
Even though people thought RG3 would be a great QB, I don't think anyone thought it would happen that quickly. Not only did he carry a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs, he also resurrected the Redskins from annual cellar dwellers to the playoffs. He lit up fantasy scoreboards as he rushed for 826 yards and finished the year with 27 total TDs. While most people marvel at those rushing stats, I was more impressed with the fact that he only threw five interceptions last year which is unheard of for a rookie QB. If he can stay healthy this year, he is primed for another big season for fantasy owners and the Redskins.
Morris went from waiver wire fodder to fantasy gold last year. He finished as the number five fantasy running back, rushing for over 1500 yards and 13 TDs. RG3's injury actually helps Morris quite a bit because of the increase in carries he will get. The Redskins still want to run the ball, but I have a feeling the designed runs for RG3 will go down. Who will pick up those carries? Morris. His value in PPR leagues is much lower than standard given his mere 11 receptions last year, but he'll still be a starting RB for any fantasy team. I think his numbers dip a little bit this year (13 TDs is quite a bit), but not enough to push him out of the fantasy stud section.
Bust: RG3, QB
Similar to Vick, RG3's running style should worry people when it comes to injuries. He runs with reckless abandon and, although it's easy to say he will be more careful this year, I still think he will revert back to his old ways in the heat of the moment. In 2012, RG3 missed part of the Falcons game, missed part of the Ravens game, and missed the entire Browns game. I mentioned earlier how the Redskins will probably be more conservative with RG3's running, which is good for the Redskins but bad for fantasy owners. His running numbers masked his often times mediocre passing stats. Not including the games he didn't finish or didn't play in, RG3 threw for 215 yards or less in eight games last year. The final two games for the Redskins after he came back from injury? 298 yards, 2 TDs, one INT. Drew Brees puts up better numbers in three quarters. If he is limited in the running game at all, his passing deficiencies will start to show and he will no longer by the fantasy guarantee that he was last year.
Sleeper: Pierre Garcon, WR
When Garcon and RG3 were both healthy last year, they were one of the top QB-WR combos in the NFL. Garcon exploded with a 109 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 1, but was injured in the process. He didn't manage to really get his feet back under him until Week 12. Then, just like in Week 1, he took off posting three double digit games from Week 12 to Week 14. He finished the year quietly, however, coinciding with the Browns game RG3 missed and the final two games where RG3 was average at best as a passer. He is the unquestioned number one WR on this team, but is being drafted in fantasy as a FLEX. If both he and RG3 can stay healthy, Garcon is a top 5 WR. Yep, top 5. He may be the best value out there right now, showing just how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
A year after winning the division, expectations are high in D.C. The Redskins' fate really all comes down to RG3's health and how his play style will be different. I still think this offense puts up numbers, but it might come from different places other than RG3's legs this year. If he goes down, I think Morris still has value, but everyone else is in trouble.
Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Finally, Dez woke up and realized his potential. As a Cowboys fan, I was ecstatic when they drafted him back in 2010 as he put up great numbers in college and was, and still is, an athletic freak of nature. Inconsistency, injuries, and off the field problems soon ended that excitement as it looked like Dez was heading towards bust territory. Then, in Week 10 last year, everything just seemed to click. From Week 10 to the end of the year, he had only one single digit game and put up number one overall WR numbers. Three times he went for 145 yards or more including a 224 yard masterpiece in many people's fantasy championship game. He also scored at least one TD from Week 10 to Week 16. He put up phenomenal numbers for the year, despite starting the season very slow. He had three one point games and only two double digit games prior to Week 10. Of all the WRs not named Calvin Johnson, I think he has the best upside to be the number one overall WR this year.
Witten just keeps on chugging. Another 1,000 yard season as his chemistry with Tony Romo has continued. The only concerning thing with Witten is that his TD total has dropped the past two years, all the way down to three last year. Still, predicting TDs with tight ends is difficult so I wouldn't be too concerned. For PPR leagues, Witten is a monster as shown in Week 8 last year against the Giants. He actually scored more fantasy points for his receptions (18 points) than for his overall yardage (16 points). He is about as safe of a pick as you can get in all of fantasy football.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
Darren McFadden, Dallas edition. That is what Murray is turning into as he has now missed nine games in two seasons. He can run with the best of them when he is out there, but the injuries are mounting. Even more concerning is that he had these problems in college as well, so it's likely that his body is fragile or broken down from these injuries, making it difficult for him to play a whole season. His TD total is also quite low as he only had four last year in 10 games. He is currently the 21st projected RB off the board meaning someone will have him as their RB2 in 12 team leagues, and someone will probably reach for him in 10 team leagues as their RB2. I might be comfortable with him as my FLEX, but there are safer, higher upside options out there.
Sleeper: Tony Romo, QB
Even as a Cowboys fan, I dislike Romo, but he is the ultimate fantasy vs reality player. The perception that he gets in reality is that he is no good, chokes in games, and makes bad decisions. In fantasy football, however, like any fantasy game, it is all about stats. That's it. And when it comes to stats, Romo is near the top. In every year since he has been a starter (excluding his injury shortened 2010), Romo has finished in the top 10 fantasy QBs. He finished in the top 6 last year in yards, TDs, and completion percentage. The only other players to accomplish the same feat? Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning, both being taken several rounds before Romo. Despite the perception that he chokes towards the end of the year, Romo's only two single digit games were actually at the beginning of the year in Weeks 3 and 4. In Weeks 15 and 16 (most league's fantasy playoffs), he put up 21 and 32 points, respectively. He's currently projected as the 12th QB off the board, which is crazy for a QB that so consistently finishes in the top 10. I will gladly load up on RBs and WRs early and wait until the later rounds to draft a top 10 QB.
Bottom Line:
I'm biased here, but I expect a good year out of the Cowboys. I won't guarantee a playoff berth, but they will definitely be knocking on the door. The defense could actually wind up as a top 10 unit as they switched to a 4-3 with DeMarcus Ware now on the line and Sean Lee back at middle linebacker. Still, the story for this team is on offense as the passing game should thrive once again. Draft Murray with caution, but feel safe about the rest of them.
Matty O
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Last year, McCoy was near the top of fantasy draft boards, going somewhere between three and five overall. After a disappointing 2012, his draft stock has dropped a bit, enabling you to get a potential top 3 RB in the late first, perhaps early second depending on how your league drafts. He missed four games last year due to concussion and was limited by Andy Reid's play calling. He still finished with 840 yards and made PPR owners happy with 54 receptions. His five total TDs are what killed him and was one of the reasons the Eagles wound up in last place. New head coach Chip Kelly will run the ball more and, given the wide open style of his offense, should be able to get McCoy into space where he is especially dangerous. I think McCoy has a monster comeback year and thrives in Kelly's system.
Jackson may not have made this section had it not been for Maclin's injury. Jackson once again becomes the number one guy for the Eagles. He had a rough and injury plagued year, playing in only 11 games. The key for Jackson is that Michael Vick appears to be at full health and he's proven he can put up numbers in the past. He had back to back 1,000 yard receiving years in 2009 and 2010, posting 15 TDs in the process. In their first preseason game, Vick connected on a long bomb to Jackson for a 47 yard TD. That's what I expect from Jackson this year. His value is very limited in PPR, but he will have at least three or four chances each game to connect on a long catch and/or TD. Currently projected as the 27th WR off the board, I think he has some value this year as a boom or bust WR.
Bust: None
Like many other teams that have no one to put in the bust category, the Eagles were pretty awful last year. The only one worthy of a bust prediction would be McCoy, but obviously I don't think that will happen. Apart from McCoy, Jackson, and possibly Bryce Brown and Michael Vick, the rest of the Eagles will go undrafted.
Sleeper: Michael Vick, QB
Vick is in the same mold of players like Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray; when they're healthy and play well, then they're fantasy gold, unfortunately they usually don't do that. Still, Vick is one of the most talented runners at the QB position and proved he can still throw the rock every once in a while (threw for over 300 yards three times in 2012). Kelly will bring in a new option read scheme, which could make Vick's rushing numbers even better. It will be up to him to avoid those big hits though. We've seen in the past how Vick's ability can win you a mtachup, so the fact that he is projected as the 16th QB off the board makes him a steal. I would rather select Vick (No. 16 QB) who has top 5 upside, rather than draft Joe Flacco (No. 15 QB) whose upside is little to none. At the very least if Vick goes off early in the season, he can be trade bait. Speed is the name of the game with Kelly's offense, and Vick still has plenty of it.
Bottom Line:
Fantasy wise, the offense looks very exciting. If Kelly can even come close to the numbers his teams put up at Oregon, then many of the Eagles' offensive players will be great to own. In real life, however, I still think they finish last in the division because of their porous defense. The good part about that for fantasy owners? Shootouts. Enter Jackson, McCoy, and Vick to put up numbers.
New York Giants
Studs: Victor Cruz, WR
Cruz is the only consistent, reliable weapon currently on the Giants' roster. With the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, the backfield looks like it is heading towards committee territory with David Wilson and Andre Brown sharing time. The Giants' former number one WR Hakeem Nicks, can't stay healthy, and they lost their breakout tight end in Martellus Bennett to the Bears. Cruz should provide some stability though as he put up another 1,000 yard campaign and bumped his TDs into double digits (10). He would have had an even bigger year had it not been for Eli Manning's atrocious three game slump from Week 8 to Week 10 where he threw for an average of 177 yards for those three games with zero passing TDs. Barring another slump of that magnitude, Cruz will once again put up great numbers as he salsa dances your fantasy team into the playoffs.
Bust: Giants Running Backs
It is certainly possible that either David Wilson or Andre Brown emerges to distinguish themselves, but I'm not sure who at this point. Wilson got a lot of hype from last year as he had two great games to end the year; Week 14 against New Orleans and Week 17 against Philadelphia. He now gets the chance to take over the number one spot with Bradshaw gone, but Brown is lurking. Brown's hype was the exact opposite because his two great games were at the beginning of the year; Week 2 against Tampa Bay and Week 3 in Carolina. Brown actually finished last year with more carries and TDs than Wilson last year, yet is projected lower than him this year. I see a situation developing where either one goes off one week, then the other, etc., or they both perform okay most weeks, but limit each others' fantasy value. If the price is right, I might take one of these two, but probably only as my FLEX and certainly not a RB2.
Sleeper: Brandon Myers, TE
While Bennett was having a breakout year in New York, Myers was having one of his own in Oakland on a much worse team. Myers put up nearly 200 more yards than Bennett with 24 more receptions. Manning clearly enjoys throwing it to his tight ends as he turned Jake Ballard into a usable fantasy TE before Bennett came over from the Cowboys. Myers should slide right into that role and perform even better than both of them. Projected as the 10th TE off the board, Myers could be a value for those owners who wait on TE and load up on the other positions early. If, or when, Nicks gets injured, his value rises even more.
Bottom Line:
The Giants need more consistent QB play from Manning if they are to win the division this year. They have plenty of weapons to do so, including two running backs that are waiting to break out. Cruz is definitely the safest pick here with Nicks being a potential bargain if he can stay healthy (that's a big if).
Washington Redskins
Studs: Robert Griffin III, QB, Alfred Morris, RB
Even though people thought RG3 would be a great QB, I don't think anyone thought it would happen that quickly. Not only did he carry a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs, he also resurrected the Redskins from annual cellar dwellers to the playoffs. He lit up fantasy scoreboards as he rushed for 826 yards and finished the year with 27 total TDs. While most people marvel at those rushing stats, I was more impressed with the fact that he only threw five interceptions last year which is unheard of for a rookie QB. If he can stay healthy this year, he is primed for another big season for fantasy owners and the Redskins.
Morris went from waiver wire fodder to fantasy gold last year. He finished as the number five fantasy running back, rushing for over 1500 yards and 13 TDs. RG3's injury actually helps Morris quite a bit because of the increase in carries he will get. The Redskins still want to run the ball, but I have a feeling the designed runs for RG3 will go down. Who will pick up those carries? Morris. His value in PPR leagues is much lower than standard given his mere 11 receptions last year, but he'll still be a starting RB for any fantasy team. I think his numbers dip a little bit this year (13 TDs is quite a bit), but not enough to push him out of the fantasy stud section.
Bust: RG3, QB
Similar to Vick, RG3's running style should worry people when it comes to injuries. He runs with reckless abandon and, although it's easy to say he will be more careful this year, I still think he will revert back to his old ways in the heat of the moment. In 2012, RG3 missed part of the Falcons game, missed part of the Ravens game, and missed the entire Browns game. I mentioned earlier how the Redskins will probably be more conservative with RG3's running, which is good for the Redskins but bad for fantasy owners. His running numbers masked his often times mediocre passing stats. Not including the games he didn't finish or didn't play in, RG3 threw for 215 yards or less in eight games last year. The final two games for the Redskins after he came back from injury? 298 yards, 2 TDs, one INT. Drew Brees puts up better numbers in three quarters. If he is limited in the running game at all, his passing deficiencies will start to show and he will no longer by the fantasy guarantee that he was last year.
Sleeper: Pierre Garcon, WR
When Garcon and RG3 were both healthy last year, they were one of the top QB-WR combos in the NFL. Garcon exploded with a 109 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 1, but was injured in the process. He didn't manage to really get his feet back under him until Week 12. Then, just like in Week 1, he took off posting three double digit games from Week 12 to Week 14. He finished the year quietly, however, coinciding with the Browns game RG3 missed and the final two games where RG3 was average at best as a passer. He is the unquestioned number one WR on this team, but is being drafted in fantasy as a FLEX. If both he and RG3 can stay healthy, Garcon is a top 5 WR. Yep, top 5. He may be the best value out there right now, showing just how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
A year after winning the division, expectations are high in D.C. The Redskins' fate really all comes down to RG3's health and how his play style will be different. I still think this offense puts up numbers, but it might come from different places other than RG3's legs this year. If he goes down, I think Morris still has value, but everyone else is in trouble.
Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Finally, Dez woke up and realized his potential. As a Cowboys fan, I was ecstatic when they drafted him back in 2010 as he put up great numbers in college and was, and still is, an athletic freak of nature. Inconsistency, injuries, and off the field problems soon ended that excitement as it looked like Dez was heading towards bust territory. Then, in Week 10 last year, everything just seemed to click. From Week 10 to the end of the year, he had only one single digit game and put up number one overall WR numbers. Three times he went for 145 yards or more including a 224 yard masterpiece in many people's fantasy championship game. He also scored at least one TD from Week 10 to Week 16. He put up phenomenal numbers for the year, despite starting the season very slow. He had three one point games and only two double digit games prior to Week 10. Of all the WRs not named Calvin Johnson, I think he has the best upside to be the number one overall WR this year.
Witten just keeps on chugging. Another 1,000 yard season as his chemistry with Tony Romo has continued. The only concerning thing with Witten is that his TD total has dropped the past two years, all the way down to three last year. Still, predicting TDs with tight ends is difficult so I wouldn't be too concerned. For PPR leagues, Witten is a monster as shown in Week 8 last year against the Giants. He actually scored more fantasy points for his receptions (18 points) than for his overall yardage (16 points). He is about as safe of a pick as you can get in all of fantasy football.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
Darren McFadden, Dallas edition. That is what Murray is turning into as he has now missed nine games in two seasons. He can run with the best of them when he is out there, but the injuries are mounting. Even more concerning is that he had these problems in college as well, so it's likely that his body is fragile or broken down from these injuries, making it difficult for him to play a whole season. His TD total is also quite low as he only had four last year in 10 games. He is currently the 21st projected RB off the board meaning someone will have him as their RB2 in 12 team leagues, and someone will probably reach for him in 10 team leagues as their RB2. I might be comfortable with him as my FLEX, but there are safer, higher upside options out there.
Sleeper: Tony Romo, QB
Even as a Cowboys fan, I dislike Romo, but he is the ultimate fantasy vs reality player. The perception that he gets in reality is that he is no good, chokes in games, and makes bad decisions. In fantasy football, however, like any fantasy game, it is all about stats. That's it. And when it comes to stats, Romo is near the top. In every year since he has been a starter (excluding his injury shortened 2010), Romo has finished in the top 10 fantasy QBs. He finished in the top 6 last year in yards, TDs, and completion percentage. The only other players to accomplish the same feat? Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning, both being taken several rounds before Romo. Despite the perception that he chokes towards the end of the year, Romo's only two single digit games were actually at the beginning of the year in Weeks 3 and 4. In Weeks 15 and 16 (most league's fantasy playoffs), he put up 21 and 32 points, respectively. He's currently projected as the 12th QB off the board, which is crazy for a QB that so consistently finishes in the top 10. I will gladly load up on RBs and WRs early and wait until the later rounds to draft a top 10 QB.
Bottom Line:
I'm biased here, but I expect a good year out of the Cowboys. I won't guarantee a playoff berth, but they will definitely be knocking on the door. The defense could actually wind up as a top 10 unit as they switched to a 4-3 with DeMarcus Ware now on the line and Sean Lee back at middle linebacker. Still, the story for this team is on offense as the passing game should thrive once again. Draft Murray with caution, but feel safe about the rest of them.
Matty O
Sunday, August 18, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
While I thought Luck would have a fairly decent rookie year, I didn't think he would set the record for the most passing yards by a rookie in a season. He did this without his head coach for much of the season and without an established running back. Apart from Wayne on the outside, his weapons were very limited and very inexperienced. He also helped owners by adding on 255 rushing yards and 5 TDs. The only concerning thing is the 18 INTs as well as numerous potential INTs that were dropped. While not considered a sleeper, he is certainly undervalued as the 11th projected QB off the board. Even in a 10 team league, I would be fine with him as my QB for 2013.
Wayne was the sleeper pick I was most confident about last year. Peyton Manning was great no doubt about it, but from everything we saw in college at Stanford, it wasn't like Luck was going to be terrible. Wayne, who could have left Indy but decided to help Luck transition from the Manning era, was Luck's safety blanket throughout the year and was targeted frequently. In the Colts' first four games, Wayne hauled in 36 passes. His lowest reception total was three in Week 15 against Houston. Apart from that, he hovered consistently around 7 or 8 catches a game. He is getting older, and definitely has more value in a PPR league than a standard league, but Wayne is so skilled that even a QB switch from a legend to a rookie doesn't effect his performance.
Bust: Colts RBs
Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard are the front runners for the position currently with Donald Brown and Dalone Carter a distant third and fourth. Bradshaw, unfortunately, can never stay healthy as he has had foot and ankle problems throughout his career; one of the reasons why the Giants let him go. Ballard had some decent games last year, along with a very memorable twisting, turning, and diving touchdown against the Titans. Still, he never eclipsed 13 fantasy points, only had 100 yards rushing one time, and scored a grand total of two rushing TDs. Even if Bradshaw gets injured (72% chance he will) it's not like Ballard will come in and propel you to the fantasy playoffs. If I had to choose, I would rather draft Bradshaw and just pray he doesn't get injured and can return to his early New York Giant days, but I still wouldn't want either one.
Sleeper: T.Y. Hilton, WR
He might not even be a sleeper for some of you who owned him last year, but he is still going in the late, late rounds so he can certainly be a bargain. Hilton, playing opposite Wayne and learning from him, started the year very slow. He needed time to develop chemistry with Luck and time for Luck to stop looking Wayne's way every single throw. Once that happened, from Week 9-17, Hilton racked up four games of 100 yards or more, scored six TDs, and posted only three single digit games. He hopes to carry that momentum into this year. Even though I think Wayne still gets his share, I expect Hilton to see an increase in his targets this year resulting in some respectable numbers. He will probably be drafted for your bench or FLEX position, but I think he has WR2 potential. At the price you can get him for, he's one of the best bargains out there.
Bottom Line:
The passing game is the only thing that should concern you here fantasy wise. Along with Hilton, I wouldn't be surprised if former Luck Stanford teammate Coby Fleener finally emerges as a nice tight end option. I don't think he has the high upside as say a Jared Cook or Jordan Cameron, but he's more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers. He could sneak in as a playable TE1 by the end of the year. Despite making the playoffs last year, the Colts will look to go a step further and win the division crown from Houston. Luck and this offense will be the ones that make or break that dream.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Cecil Shorts, WR
I thought MJD would have a down year last year, but not because of injury. The main concern coming out of last season's off season was whether MJD's long holdout would effect his play on the field. He put those concerns to rest fairly quickly by racking up 12 in Week 2 and 24 in Week 3. Then, Week 7 came around and he injured his foot and was out for the rest of the season. This injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2013 fantasy campaign as he's had extra time to rest. The offensive line and inconsistent play of the Jags' QBs is certainly a worry, but MJD is one of those rare backs that can still produce when those limitations are in play. I expect him to bounce back this year, though I won't say into the upper echelon of backs. I think he finishes in the top 15 at RB, making him a solid RB2 in most formats.
Shorts was a guy that was getting overlooked (no pun intended). MJD is in the backfield and Justin Blackmon was getting all the hype at WR. In comes Shorts who puts up close to 1000 yards and seven TDs from an on and off dose of Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. Unlike most receivers that come out of nowhere and have one or two spectacular games then stink the rest of the time, Shorts was very consistent tallying nine double digit games out of the 14 he played. He did put up a couple zeroes last year, but I would blame that more on the Jags' horrendous QB play than Shorts. He is a consistent guy who, due to the Jags offense as a whole, won't win you any weeks, but will give you consistency week in and week out.
Bust: MJD, RB
Not a lot of options here, but there are a couple things that concern me about MJD. The first is this quick, no huddle offense the Jags have been running in preseason. I'm not sure if they will stick to that, but I think MJD would prefer to just line it up and ram it at the defense. At his age, I doubt that no huddling is the best thing for him. The second concern is that the Jags will most likely be playing from behind a lot. MJD won't be able to get the carries that he wants and needs to get those large yardage totals. While he is a respectable catcher out of the backfield, I think he would rather just run. The last concern is the schedule which is tough. They play the AFC West and NFC West this year which is no walk in the park for RBs, especially the latter. Like I said, I still think he finishes top 15, but this is just a warning to owners of the downsides of drafting MJD as well.
Sleeper: Shorts, WR
Somehow, despite his consistency and experts knowing the Jags will have to throw this year, Shorts is still projected as the 26th WR off the board. That's FLEX territory for 10 and 12 team leagues, although I believe he is a WR2. The volume will be there, as will the opportunity as Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the season. I'll mention this again in my upcoming "Draft Strategy" article, but this just shows you how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
Unfortunately, even with a healthy MJD and youngster Shorts, the Jags will probably once again finish last in the AFC South due to their awful QBs. If they would have landed a QB or drafted one in the offseason, then there would be hope, but we've seen Gabbert and Henne be consistently inconsistent. MJD and Shorts are the only two you should be looking at here.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
CJ2K rewarded his owners last year who had patience. Following a dreadful 2011 campaign, 2012 looked like much of the same early on. He was awful in the first five weeks, tallying only one double digit game and zero TDs. While his big breakout came in Week 7 to the tune of 31 points, I thought the key turnaround game was the week prior against Pittsburgh. Although he didn't score, he managed to get 91 yards on 19 carries against one of the best run Ds in the league. I think it was a real confidence booster and set him up for success the rest of the year. He put up six straight double digit points from Week 6 to Week 12 (bye week in Week 11). He was on and off down the stretch, but 2012 was certainly an improvement. The Titans once against bolstered their offensive line and have looked good in preseason so far. It is amazing that the number 15 projected RB has number 1 overall upside.
Bust: Titans WR
Trying to figure out who will have a good week in this receiving corps is darn near impossible. Last year the three starters, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright, all had at least 589 yards, but no more than 746. Combined, they had nine times where one of them went for double digits, but none of them did it in the same week. The Titans complicated things even further by drafting Justin Hunter to compete for a receiver spot. Britt is the highest projected one, but has had injury and off the field problems throughout his career. Maybe use one as a bye week fill in, but good luck guessing who that will be.
Sleeper: None
There's just not enough talent or opportunity there.
Bottom Line:
The Titans will most likely battle for last with the Jags in this division. If CJ2K returns to form, there's a chance that they could push Indy, but as a team, they're not good enough to catch the Colts. I'm predicting/hoping that CJ puts together a great season. He's a home run threat, but is just as likely to get you 4 or 5 points per week.
Houston Texans
Arian Foster, RB, Defense and Special Teams
There's not much left to say for Foster. A fantasy stud year in and year out, he continues to be the centerpiece of this Houston Texans' offense. He only had two single digit games last year and went for over 100 rushing yards seven times, including against the Bears in Chicago. He's a safe bet to be taken anywhere in the first round, but will most likely be off the board by the time the fourth pick rolls around.
Brian Cushing, Jonathan Joseph, Ed Reed, and J. J. Watt. Pretty good list of defenders, no? Reed provides that extra coverage over the top for this defense that they were lacking last year as they were oft beat on long balls. Reed also brings his interception and run back ability, which will help boost fantasy stats. Cushing was hurt last year, but now one of the best linebackers in the game looks to be at full health. Joseph is a good corner who usually matches up against the other team's number one WR. Add in J. J. Swatt and this defense should perform very well this year. They avoid some of the more explosive offenses this year (Saints, Packers) and welcome the likes of the Raiders and Chargers. Expect good things from this D/ST.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
Johnson had a nice year last year, but has had injury history on a team that likes to run the ball. Most of his production comes from play action plays, but his targets in the red zone are limited by Foster and the Texans' commitment to the run. He posted nine single digit games last year and his two biggest games came against Jacksonville and Indy, not exactly the most fierce some of all pass defenses. I feel like he will always be the odd man out when it comes to touches for this offense. Teams can double cover him when the Texans are in a passing situation because they don't have someone opposite Johnson. Or, at least they didn't...
Sleeper: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
A bit of a risky call here with Hopkins considering I just mentioned how run oriented the Texans are. Still when teams are focusing on Johnson, or if Johnson gets injured, Hopkins has the ability to run good routes, burn people deep, and make solid catches. He certainly won't put up WR1 numbers and probably not Andre Johnson numbers, but the fact that he's currently going undrafted or in the last few rounds makes him an excellent pickup. If Johnson gets hurt, I think Hopkins becomes a solid FLEX. Even if Johnson stays healthy, I think Hopkins' speed and play making ability could merit him bye week fill in or borderline FLEX consideration.
Bottom Line:
After not being challenged in 2011, the Texans found out last year just how close the Colts are to them. The return of Brian Cushing is huge for the defense and if Hopkins can develop into another threat opposite Johnson, then the offense will look even better than they have. Talented roster here in Houston as they seek another division title.
Matty O
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
While I thought Luck would have a fairly decent rookie year, I didn't think he would set the record for the most passing yards by a rookie in a season. He did this without his head coach for much of the season and without an established running back. Apart from Wayne on the outside, his weapons were very limited and very inexperienced. He also helped owners by adding on 255 rushing yards and 5 TDs. The only concerning thing is the 18 INTs as well as numerous potential INTs that were dropped. While not considered a sleeper, he is certainly undervalued as the 11th projected QB off the board. Even in a 10 team league, I would be fine with him as my QB for 2013.
Wayne was the sleeper pick I was most confident about last year. Peyton Manning was great no doubt about it, but from everything we saw in college at Stanford, it wasn't like Luck was going to be terrible. Wayne, who could have left Indy but decided to help Luck transition from the Manning era, was Luck's safety blanket throughout the year and was targeted frequently. In the Colts' first four games, Wayne hauled in 36 passes. His lowest reception total was three in Week 15 against Houston. Apart from that, he hovered consistently around 7 or 8 catches a game. He is getting older, and definitely has more value in a PPR league than a standard league, but Wayne is so skilled that even a QB switch from a legend to a rookie doesn't effect his performance.
Bust: Colts RBs
Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard are the front runners for the position currently with Donald Brown and Dalone Carter a distant third and fourth. Bradshaw, unfortunately, can never stay healthy as he has had foot and ankle problems throughout his career; one of the reasons why the Giants let him go. Ballard had some decent games last year, along with a very memorable twisting, turning, and diving touchdown against the Titans. Still, he never eclipsed 13 fantasy points, only had 100 yards rushing one time, and scored a grand total of two rushing TDs. Even if Bradshaw gets injured (72% chance he will) it's not like Ballard will come in and propel you to the fantasy playoffs. If I had to choose, I would rather draft Bradshaw and just pray he doesn't get injured and can return to his early New York Giant days, but I still wouldn't want either one.
Sleeper: T.Y. Hilton, WR
He might not even be a sleeper for some of you who owned him last year, but he is still going in the late, late rounds so he can certainly be a bargain. Hilton, playing opposite Wayne and learning from him, started the year very slow. He needed time to develop chemistry with Luck and time for Luck to stop looking Wayne's way every single throw. Once that happened, from Week 9-17, Hilton racked up four games of 100 yards or more, scored six TDs, and posted only three single digit games. He hopes to carry that momentum into this year. Even though I think Wayne still gets his share, I expect Hilton to see an increase in his targets this year resulting in some respectable numbers. He will probably be drafted for your bench or FLEX position, but I think he has WR2 potential. At the price you can get him for, he's one of the best bargains out there.
Bottom Line:
The passing game is the only thing that should concern you here fantasy wise. Along with Hilton, I wouldn't be surprised if former Luck Stanford teammate Coby Fleener finally emerges as a nice tight end option. I don't think he has the high upside as say a Jared Cook or Jordan Cameron, but he's more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers. He could sneak in as a playable TE1 by the end of the year. Despite making the playoffs last year, the Colts will look to go a step further and win the division crown from Houston. Luck and this offense will be the ones that make or break that dream.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Cecil Shorts, WR
I thought MJD would have a down year last year, but not because of injury. The main concern coming out of last season's off season was whether MJD's long holdout would effect his play on the field. He put those concerns to rest fairly quickly by racking up 12 in Week 2 and 24 in Week 3. Then, Week 7 came around and he injured his foot and was out for the rest of the season. This injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2013 fantasy campaign as he's had extra time to rest. The offensive line and inconsistent play of the Jags' QBs is certainly a worry, but MJD is one of those rare backs that can still produce when those limitations are in play. I expect him to bounce back this year, though I won't say into the upper echelon of backs. I think he finishes in the top 15 at RB, making him a solid RB2 in most formats.
Shorts was a guy that was getting overlooked (no pun intended). MJD is in the backfield and Justin Blackmon was getting all the hype at WR. In comes Shorts who puts up close to 1000 yards and seven TDs from an on and off dose of Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. Unlike most receivers that come out of nowhere and have one or two spectacular games then stink the rest of the time, Shorts was very consistent tallying nine double digit games out of the 14 he played. He did put up a couple zeroes last year, but I would blame that more on the Jags' horrendous QB play than Shorts. He is a consistent guy who, due to the Jags offense as a whole, won't win you any weeks, but will give you consistency week in and week out.
Bust: MJD, RB
Not a lot of options here, but there are a couple things that concern me about MJD. The first is this quick, no huddle offense the Jags have been running in preseason. I'm not sure if they will stick to that, but I think MJD would prefer to just line it up and ram it at the defense. At his age, I doubt that no huddling is the best thing for him. The second concern is that the Jags will most likely be playing from behind a lot. MJD won't be able to get the carries that he wants and needs to get those large yardage totals. While he is a respectable catcher out of the backfield, I think he would rather just run. The last concern is the schedule which is tough. They play the AFC West and NFC West this year which is no walk in the park for RBs, especially the latter. Like I said, I still think he finishes top 15, but this is just a warning to owners of the downsides of drafting MJD as well.
Sleeper: Shorts, WR
Somehow, despite his consistency and experts knowing the Jags will have to throw this year, Shorts is still projected as the 26th WR off the board. That's FLEX territory for 10 and 12 team leagues, although I believe he is a WR2. The volume will be there, as will the opportunity as Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the season. I'll mention this again in my upcoming "Draft Strategy" article, but this just shows you how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
Unfortunately, even with a healthy MJD and youngster Shorts, the Jags will probably once again finish last in the AFC South due to their awful QBs. If they would have landed a QB or drafted one in the offseason, then there would be hope, but we've seen Gabbert and Henne be consistently inconsistent. MJD and Shorts are the only two you should be looking at here.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
CJ2K rewarded his owners last year who had patience. Following a dreadful 2011 campaign, 2012 looked like much of the same early on. He was awful in the first five weeks, tallying only one double digit game and zero TDs. While his big breakout came in Week 7 to the tune of 31 points, I thought the key turnaround game was the week prior against Pittsburgh. Although he didn't score, he managed to get 91 yards on 19 carries against one of the best run Ds in the league. I think it was a real confidence booster and set him up for success the rest of the year. He put up six straight double digit points from Week 6 to Week 12 (bye week in Week 11). He was on and off down the stretch, but 2012 was certainly an improvement. The Titans once against bolstered their offensive line and have looked good in preseason so far. It is amazing that the number 15 projected RB has number 1 overall upside.
Bust: Titans WR
Trying to figure out who will have a good week in this receiving corps is darn near impossible. Last year the three starters, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright, all had at least 589 yards, but no more than 746. Combined, they had nine times where one of them went for double digits, but none of them did it in the same week. The Titans complicated things even further by drafting Justin Hunter to compete for a receiver spot. Britt is the highest projected one, but has had injury and off the field problems throughout his career. Maybe use one as a bye week fill in, but good luck guessing who that will be.
Sleeper: None
There's just not enough talent or opportunity there.
Bottom Line:
The Titans will most likely battle for last with the Jags in this division. If CJ2K returns to form, there's a chance that they could push Indy, but as a team, they're not good enough to catch the Colts. I'm predicting/hoping that CJ puts together a great season. He's a home run threat, but is just as likely to get you 4 or 5 points per week.
Houston Texans
Arian Foster, RB, Defense and Special Teams
There's not much left to say for Foster. A fantasy stud year in and year out, he continues to be the centerpiece of this Houston Texans' offense. He only had two single digit games last year and went for over 100 rushing yards seven times, including against the Bears in Chicago. He's a safe bet to be taken anywhere in the first round, but will most likely be off the board by the time the fourth pick rolls around.
Brian Cushing, Jonathan Joseph, Ed Reed, and J. J. Watt. Pretty good list of defenders, no? Reed provides that extra coverage over the top for this defense that they were lacking last year as they were oft beat on long balls. Reed also brings his interception and run back ability, which will help boost fantasy stats. Cushing was hurt last year, but now one of the best linebackers in the game looks to be at full health. Joseph is a good corner who usually matches up against the other team's number one WR. Add in J. J. Swatt and this defense should perform very well this year. They avoid some of the more explosive offenses this year (Saints, Packers) and welcome the likes of the Raiders and Chargers. Expect good things from this D/ST.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
Johnson had a nice year last year, but has had injury history on a team that likes to run the ball. Most of his production comes from play action plays, but his targets in the red zone are limited by Foster and the Texans' commitment to the run. He posted nine single digit games last year and his two biggest games came against Jacksonville and Indy, not exactly the most fierce some of all pass defenses. I feel like he will always be the odd man out when it comes to touches for this offense. Teams can double cover him when the Texans are in a passing situation because they don't have someone opposite Johnson. Or, at least they didn't...
Sleeper: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
A bit of a risky call here with Hopkins considering I just mentioned how run oriented the Texans are. Still when teams are focusing on Johnson, or if Johnson gets injured, Hopkins has the ability to run good routes, burn people deep, and make solid catches. He certainly won't put up WR1 numbers and probably not Andre Johnson numbers, but the fact that he's currently going undrafted or in the last few rounds makes him an excellent pickup. If Johnson gets hurt, I think Hopkins becomes a solid FLEX. Even if Johnson stays healthy, I think Hopkins' speed and play making ability could merit him bye week fill in or borderline FLEX consideration.
Bottom Line:
After not being challenged in 2011, the Texans found out last year just how close the Colts are to them. The return of Brian Cushing is huge for the defense and if Hopkins can develop into another threat opposite Johnson, then the offense will look even better than they have. Talented roster here in Houston as they seek another division title.
Matty O
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