NHL
#1 Anaheim Ducks vs #3 Chicago Blackhawks
This series presents firsts for both teams. For the Blackhawks, this will be the first series where they face a legitimate offensive threat. Nashville limped into the playoffs to begin with, then had their fate sealed when they lost their best player in Shea Weber. Minnesota was the "little engine that could" story as the trade for goalie Devan Dubnyk sparked a run that allowed them to sneak into the playoffs. They were able to grind it out against the Blues, but the offensive firepower of the Hawks was too much in the next round. Anaheim, on the other hand, relies more on its scoring than relying on their goalie to hold down the fort.
The Ducks have three of the top five scorers in the postseason so far (Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silverberg), and Hawks fans should be even more concerned after the Perry-Getzlaf line didn't do too much in Game 1, yet the Ducks still won 4-1. This team will test Duncan Keith and Co. more than anyone so far this postseason, and they will need to be up for the challenge.
For the Ducks, this will be the first complete and experienced team they have faced so far. I thought they got the easiest draw out of any of the playoff teams, particularly after Calgary beat Vancouver. Winnipeg and Calgary were fun teams to watch, and the fans in both arenas were arguably the best of anyone this postseason. Still, those two teams were young and quite frankly over matched by the Ducks in every category. The Hawks, however, bring tons of playoff experience with them, along with a defense that ranked second in goals against per game in the regular season. They also have one of the best scorers in the game in Patrick Kane, as well as one of the best all-around players in the league in Jonathan Toews. If Patrick Sharp can continue his solid play so far this postseason, the Hawks should be able to match the Ducks offensively, if a certain game turns into a shootout.
The speed of the Hawks is what could turn this series in their favor. They easily outclass the Ducks in that category and need to use it better than they did in Game 1. The Hawks had their chances, but just couldn't capitalize. They need to keep it loose and open, rather than get into a physical, mashing kind of series. The Ducks will own them if that happens. The Game 1 loss shouldn't rattle the psyche of this Hawks' team and I expect them to even up the series before heading back to the United Center. Also, Hawks fans, stop being so fickle with Corey Crawford. He's no Carey Price, but he's no jabroni either.
Prediction: Hawks in six
#1 New York Rangers vs #2 Tampa Bay Lightning
The Rangers are probably the most complete team left in the playoffs. I guess you could single out Rick Nash as their skill position superstar, but the fact is that all their lines, from one to four, have solid players. It's hard to key in on any one player and say "if we take this guy out, we give ourselves a great chance to win." The problem is, they have plenty of other guys who can, and have, picked up the slack. Add in the fact that they have the best goalie left in the playoffs (Henrik Lundqvist), and you have a team that will be hard to beat in a seven game series. They have playoff, and Stanley Cup Final, experience from last year's run, and showed their grit and determination by coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to the Caps last round.
The Lightning should be that team that is too young to know any better, but here they are in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have a young goalie in Ben Bishop who has been standing on his head so far this postseason. I've been waiting for him to crack, and he certainly has had his bad moments (see Game 4 vs Montreal), but he's done extremely well for a goalie making his postseason debut. Offensively, they're getting it done with kids still in their early twenties. Their most productive line, comprised of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov, are all under 25, and all in the Top 11 for points scored this postseason. With Steven Stamkos picking his game up, the Lightning made Carey Price look human, as they beat the Habs in six after struggling against the Red Wings in the first round.
The difference here will be the New York Ranger defense. The Rangers won a 2-1 Game 1 where Tampa only got 24 shots on goal. If they can keep that number around there for the remainder of the series, they should be in good shape. If Tampa can get out in open space and start launching shots, they will rack up the goals, no matter who is in net. The Rangers need to make it a gritty series and counter with speedsters like Carl Hagelin and Chris Kreider to get fast break opportunities. I picked the Lightning to win the Cup at the start of the playoffs, though I have my doubts. I'll still pick them to win this series and hope that Stamkos will take over at some point, but I don't feel particularly confident about this pick.
Prediction: Lightning in seven
NBA
#1 Atlanta Hawks vs #2 Cleveland Cavaliers
Based on how people feel about each of these teams, those seedings should probably be reversed. As it stands, the series will start in Atlanta, though where it will end is anyone's guess. Atlanta has been, and still is, that mystery team. You look at their roster and wonder how they got the number one seed in the first place, and how they are four wins away from playing in the NBA Finals. Their previous two series this postseason makes me even more worried about their chances. The Brooklyn Nets took them to six games, and the Wizards also dragged the series out six games. I still think that if John Wall had not gotten injured that it would be the Wiz in the Conference Finals and not the Hawks. Injuries are part of the game though, and here the Hawks are.
Let's focus on the positives for this team. For starters, similar to the New York Rangers, they really don't have that one guy that must be shut down at all costs. Cleveland has LeBron, Houston has Harden, Golden State has Curry, the Hawks have...Teague? Korver? Believe it or not, the Hawks' leading scorer this postseason is DeMarre Carroll. They are a fairly balanced team offensively as they have the outside threat with Kyle Korver, a capable big man in Al Horford, and an underrated point guard in Jeff Teague. They play decent defense, with the whole being better than the sum of its parts. They are a great free throw shooting team, so if they can get into the Bonus early and often, that will certainly be helpful to prevent those hectic Cleveland fast breaks.
Man for man, however, they are at a severe disadvantage against the Cavs. The only minor concern for the Cavs coming into this series is the health of Kyrie Irving, but I don't even think that is an issue. Irving wasn't himself against the Bulls going up against Derrick Rose, and the Cavs still won in six games with their two losses coming by a combined ten points. I imagine the Hawks will put Carroll on LeBron James, and I imagine Carroll will struggle. Jimmy Butler's defense was a significant factor in why the Bulls won two games last series and kept it close in two others. If the Hawks allow LeBron to go into Beast Mode, then this series will be very short.
The key matchup in this series will be Korver on the offensive end against Iman Shumpert. Shumpert has developed into one of the better defenders in the league, and I imagine he will be tasked with keeping Korver from getting an open three point look, as Korver runs around the floor. If the Cavs allow Korver to heat up from three, it could keep the Hawks in the series. Unfortunately for the Hawks, I think the Cavs are just too good at every position. I think LeBron has at least one signature MVP-type game towards the end of this series, and the Cavs win rather easily.
Prediction: Cavs in five
#1 Golden State Warriors vs # 2 Houston Rockets
I look at this Golden State team like the Kentucky Wildcats basketball team of this year. If they play at their best, no one can beat them. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they play in a one-and-done format instead of a series. If the Splash Brothers are splashing, I don't think it much matters what the Rockets do. They will lose, and they will lose big. Draymond Green has also had an excellent postseason, and the big man Andrew Bogut did his share last series against the bruising combo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. It's extremely hard to find any weakness with this team as they can beat you in a variety of ways. They have the best home court advantage in the NBA, and look destined to reach the NBA Finals.
In my opinion, there are only three things that can happen that would allow the Rockets to have a chance to pull off this monumental upset. Number one is that James Harden out-MVPs the MVP. Harden was the runner-up in MVP voting this year, and I'll bet he takes some fire into this series to show that he should have been the winner. While his supporting cast isn't nearly as strong as Curry's, Harden has the ability to carry his team and will them to a victory. Number two is that Dwight Howard becomes a monster inside. Dwight is averaging a double double with points and rebounds, to go along with two and a half blocks per game. If he can be a dominant presence inside to supplement Harden's play, then this offense could have something going. The third thing is that they simply have to hope that Golden State misses their shots. The Rockets have to contest, foul, play dirty, do whatever they can to knock the Splash Brothers off their rhythm.
In the end, I think this series, and almost each game, is a rout. The Warriors were 4-0 against them in the regular season, and I think they finish this postseason 4-0 against the Rockets. The pieces around Harden just aren't enough to deal with everything that the Warriors can throw at them. Maybe the Rockets rally for a victory down in Texas, but I doubt it. I think this will be a very quick NBA playoff round, setting up a Curry vs LeBron, Cleveland vs Golden State, NBA Finals.
Prediction: Warriors in four
Matty O
Monday, May 18, 2015
Friday, May 1, 2015
May 2nd: Sports Extravaganza
Are you ready? Even before the mega-fight was announced, May 2nd was packed with plenty of sports going-ons. When that fight was announced, however, it elevated May 2nd to one of the best sports days in recent memory. There's all sorts of stuff to watch if you're a sports fan, and I'll point out the highlights below. Get your beer, grab a pizza, and enjoy quite the sports extravaganza.
Barclay's Premier League, Morning
If soccer is your thing, then this will be a nice way to start your ultimate sports day. All American sports seem to be frustrating themselves with trying to find a way to prevent tanking. Well, the BPL has a fool proof way to do so, by relegating the bottom three teams to a lower division; think of it like the minors in the US. All three teams at the bottom of the standings (Burnley FC, Queens Park Rangers, Sunderland) will be in action on Saturday, and will be fighting for their lives with three weeks left in the season. It might not look pretty, but the passion and effort will be at 100% and sometimes that's all you need to rally your team to a win.
NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7), Noon Eastern
This certainly won't be the most exciting thing to watch, but that doesn't mean it is not important. It will likely be a lot of analysts talking with player names showing up on a ticker at the bottom when they are drafted. Keep in mind, however, that difference making players can still be found in these rounds. The two teams that played in this year's Super Bowl had a number of key players that were drafted in this area. The Pats had Stephen Gostkowski (4th), Rob Ninkovich (5th), Tom Brady (6th), and Julian Edelman (7th), while the Seahawks had Kam Chancellor (5th), Richard Sherman (5th), Byron Maxwell (6th), and JR Sweezy (7th). I'm not saying you should watch all the coverage, but certainly check to see who your favorite team has picked up. He might turn into a franchise player.
Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers (Game 2), 12:30pm Eastern
While I picked, and would have liked to have seen, a New York vs New York series, this Caps/Rangers series has plenty of intrigue. Prior to last year, these two teams met in the playoffs three straight times from 2011-13. The Caps breezed to a 4-1 series win in 2011, but the Rangers have taken the last two with each series going seven games. The Caps took Game One in Madison Square Garden on a last second goal. A scuffle ensued on the final face-off and I expect that frustration and aggression to carry over into Game 2, and throughout the series. I picked the Rangers in this series because of King Henrik, but if the Rangers don't find a way to score (scored more than 2 goals only once in six postseason games so far), then Ovechkin and the Caps might pull the upset.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox, 1:35pm Eastern
Red Sox and Yankees is always worth a watch for any baseball fan, and it certainly helps that the Yankees and Red Sox are playing well at this point in the season. The Red Sox reloaded after a last place finish in 2014, while the Yankees are playing well with a lot of the same cast from last year. One of the more intriguing Yankee and MLB story lines early in the season has been Alex Rodriguez. I thought he was going to struggle having missed all of 2014, but he has been their offensive centerpiece so far. I also expect him to be the centerpiece of a chorus of boos from the Boston faithful.
141st Kentucky Derby, 5pm Eastern
If horse racing took as long as a baseball or football game, I would never watch it. Thankfully, it only takes a couple minutes to run the actual race. That's about all the time I have to watch horses run around in a circle. When making a prediction for the Derby, I, like 99.99% of people in the world, have no real idea who is going to win. Instead, I always choose to bet on the horse with the coolest or catchiest name. The current favorite to win is a horse called American Pharoah. Not only did the namers of the horse spell pharaoh wrong, but I'm just fine with sticking with a president instead of a pharaoh. For me, the obvious choice is Ocho Ocho Ocho.
Consider that the number month (5) plus the number day (2) is seven. The last two digits in the year is 15. 15-7=8 which just so happens to be ocho in Spanish. Another thing to consider, it takes three wins (Derby, Belmont, and Preakness) to win the Triple Crown. This horse's name has the same word three times. Ocho Ocho Ocho's current odds are 50:1, but don't let that scare you off. All that means is a bigger payout when you win! I think the stars are aligned for Ocho Ocho Ocho to take the Derby Derby Derby.
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers, 8pm Eastern
Easily the best series of the first round, these two teams will decide their playoff fates on Saturday at the Staples Center. This series has the feel of a Western Conference Finals matchup rather than a first round one. There has been gritty play, unexpected performances, controversial calls, and tight finishes. Whoever gets the win in this series will have certainly earned it, but you certainly have to wonder how much this series has worn down the team that does advance. Even though it is back in LA, I think the Spurs find a way to pull out the win. I see their bench coming through once again, as their depth overcomes the top heavy Clippers' lineup.
Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao, 9pm Eastern
The Fight of the Century, and certainly the richest fight in boxing history, is finally going to happen. After years of Floyd ducking Pacquiao, these two great fighters will finally square off. To be honest, I've yet to watch either of them fight a full fight, and have only seen highlights. I'm picking Manny simply because he's definitely the more likeable guy out of the ring, and I think it will be better for boxing. I have a feeling that if Floyd wins, he'll take his ball and go home, and likely won't accept a rematch. Conversely, if Manny wins, I expect Floyd to demand a rematch so that an unavenged loss doesn't hang on his record. This fight would have been much better a few years ago, but it's good that it is finally happening. I do have a bad feeling that it might not live up to the hype, but that's mainly because the hype for this fight has been off the charts!
Matty O
Barclay's Premier League, Morning
If soccer is your thing, then this will be a nice way to start your ultimate sports day. All American sports seem to be frustrating themselves with trying to find a way to prevent tanking. Well, the BPL has a fool proof way to do so, by relegating the bottom three teams to a lower division; think of it like the minors in the US. All three teams at the bottom of the standings (Burnley FC, Queens Park Rangers, Sunderland) will be in action on Saturday, and will be fighting for their lives with three weeks left in the season. It might not look pretty, but the passion and effort will be at 100% and sometimes that's all you need to rally your team to a win.
NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7), Noon Eastern
This certainly won't be the most exciting thing to watch, but that doesn't mean it is not important. It will likely be a lot of analysts talking with player names showing up on a ticker at the bottom when they are drafted. Keep in mind, however, that difference making players can still be found in these rounds. The two teams that played in this year's Super Bowl had a number of key players that were drafted in this area. The Pats had Stephen Gostkowski (4th), Rob Ninkovich (5th), Tom Brady (6th), and Julian Edelman (7th), while the Seahawks had Kam Chancellor (5th), Richard Sherman (5th), Byron Maxwell (6th), and JR Sweezy (7th). I'm not saying you should watch all the coverage, but certainly check to see who your favorite team has picked up. He might turn into a franchise player.
Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers (Game 2), 12:30pm Eastern
While I picked, and would have liked to have seen, a New York vs New York series, this Caps/Rangers series has plenty of intrigue. Prior to last year, these two teams met in the playoffs three straight times from 2011-13. The Caps breezed to a 4-1 series win in 2011, but the Rangers have taken the last two with each series going seven games. The Caps took Game One in Madison Square Garden on a last second goal. A scuffle ensued on the final face-off and I expect that frustration and aggression to carry over into Game 2, and throughout the series. I picked the Rangers in this series because of King Henrik, but if the Rangers don't find a way to score (scored more than 2 goals only once in six postseason games so far), then Ovechkin and the Caps might pull the upset.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox, 1:35pm Eastern
Red Sox and Yankees is always worth a watch for any baseball fan, and it certainly helps that the Yankees and Red Sox are playing well at this point in the season. The Red Sox reloaded after a last place finish in 2014, while the Yankees are playing well with a lot of the same cast from last year. One of the more intriguing Yankee and MLB story lines early in the season has been Alex Rodriguez. I thought he was going to struggle having missed all of 2014, but he has been their offensive centerpiece so far. I also expect him to be the centerpiece of a chorus of boos from the Boston faithful.
141st Kentucky Derby, 5pm Eastern
If horse racing took as long as a baseball or football game, I would never watch it. Thankfully, it only takes a couple minutes to run the actual race. That's about all the time I have to watch horses run around in a circle. When making a prediction for the Derby, I, like 99.99% of people in the world, have no real idea who is going to win. Instead, I always choose to bet on the horse with the coolest or catchiest name. The current favorite to win is a horse called American Pharoah. Not only did the namers of the horse spell pharaoh wrong, but I'm just fine with sticking with a president instead of a pharaoh. For me, the obvious choice is Ocho Ocho Ocho.
Consider that the number month (5) plus the number day (2) is seven. The last two digits in the year is 15. 15-7=8 which just so happens to be ocho in Spanish. Another thing to consider, it takes three wins (Derby, Belmont, and Preakness) to win the Triple Crown. This horse's name has the same word three times. Ocho Ocho Ocho's current odds are 50:1, but don't let that scare you off. All that means is a bigger payout when you win! I think the stars are aligned for Ocho Ocho Ocho to take the Derby Derby Derby.
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers, 8pm Eastern
Easily the best series of the first round, these two teams will decide their playoff fates on Saturday at the Staples Center. This series has the feel of a Western Conference Finals matchup rather than a first round one. There has been gritty play, unexpected performances, controversial calls, and tight finishes. Whoever gets the win in this series will have certainly earned it, but you certainly have to wonder how much this series has worn down the team that does advance. Even though it is back in LA, I think the Spurs find a way to pull out the win. I see their bench coming through once again, as their depth overcomes the top heavy Clippers' lineup.
Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao, 9pm Eastern
The Fight of the Century, and certainly the richest fight in boxing history, is finally going to happen. After years of Floyd ducking Pacquiao, these two great fighters will finally square off. To be honest, I've yet to watch either of them fight a full fight, and have only seen highlights. I'm picking Manny simply because he's definitely the more likeable guy out of the ring, and I think it will be better for boxing. I have a feeling that if Floyd wins, he'll take his ball and go home, and likely won't accept a rematch. Conversely, if Manny wins, I expect Floyd to demand a rematch so that an unavenged loss doesn't hang on his record. This fight would have been much better a few years ago, but it's good that it is finally happening. I do have a bad feeling that it might not live up to the hype, but that's mainly because the hype for this fight has been off the charts!
Matty O
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
2015 NFL Games To Watch
Tennessee at Tampa Bay, September 13th
This matchup becomes much less enticing if one or both of these teams do not draft a QB with the first two picks in the draft. If, however, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are the first two players selected in this year's draft by these two teams, then this game could be the highlight of opening weekend. Obviously they would need to win the starting QB job, but both are certainly capable of doing that. The build up of having a Mariota vs Winston showdown would be off the charts for Week 1.
Seattle at Green Bay, September 20th (Sunday Night Football)
If you saw the NFC Championship game last year, then you know why this is a must see game. The Packers were heading towards a Super Bowl berth, before imploding in the fourth quarter and allowing the Seahawks to comeback and beat the Pack in overtime. In Lambeau, the Pack will be looking for revenge, though this game won't guarantee anyone anything. Even without that backdrop, you still have Aaron Rodgers going against the Legion of Boom (sans Byron Maxwell) in an awesome Week 2 matchup.
New York Jets at Indianapolis, September 21st (Monday Night Football)
This is your classic unstoppable force versus the immovable object. Andrew Luck has helped turn the Colts into one of the most feared offenses in the league. They will welcome the new look New York Jets, who have another defensive minded coach, and a much improved secondary. The Jets reunited Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, who wreaked havoc under Rex Ryan. New head coach Todd Bowles will bring the same kind of defensive toughness to this team that Ryan did. With run stuffers Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson already on the roster, this has the making of being one of the best defenses in the league. Luck and the Colts will be their first true test.
Indianapolis at Houston, October 8th (Thursday Night Football)
Houston has long been trying to fight for respect and the title in the AFC South. Unfortunately for them, the Colts have transitioned from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck quite nicely. Last year, however, the Texans gave them two great games, losing by seven points or less in each of them. If Jadeveon Clowney is healthy for this game, he and JJ Watt will be a force to be reckoned with. NRG Stadium will be a sea of red for this prime time matchup against a division rival.
New England at Dallas, October 11th
Arguably the two most hated (and loved) teams in the NFL get to go at it in Jerry World. The hype for this game will be off the charts, regardless of the two teams' records at this point. There are Dallas fans out there (myself included) that believe that had Dez Bryant's catch been called a catch, that Dallas and New England would have been the Super Bowl matchup. I guess the Cowboy fan base will have to settle for an early season game at home to see how well they stack up against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
Green Bay at Denver, November 1st (Sunday Night Football)
As long as Peyton Manning's health holds up, this should be a great battle of two of the best QBs in the business. Aaron Rodgers does what he does, and if Manning can play like he did at the beginning of last year instead of at the end, then this should be a great game. Both teams also possess extremely productive running backs (Eddie Lacy and CJ Anderson) so the defenses will be put to the test here. Both teams also should be carrying the "Team of Destiny" banner into 2015 as this may be Peyton's final year and Green Bay will be looking to avenge that debacle in Seattle.
Denver at Indianapolis, November 8th
This might be the last time Peyton ever plays at Lucas Oil Stadium. Similar to when he first came back, I'm sure it will be an emotionally charged game, particularly if he has indicated in some way that he will definitely retire after this season. The Denver/Indy games have been great since Luck took over in Indy and Peyton went to Denver, and I expect more of the same.
Philadelphia at Dallas, November 8th (Sunday Night Football)
As a Cowboy fan, I'm looking forward to this game more than any other this season. Even if you're not a Cowboy fan, you should not miss this one. The two division rivals hate each other to begin with, but now with DeMarco Murray signing with the enemy, it will only add to the fervor of this game. I expect the atmosphere to be electric and the game to have a bit of nasty to it. I also expect Murray to be booed unmercifully. The Eagles blasted the Cowboys on Thanksgiving last year, only to lose to the Cowboys, and give away the division, two weeks later in Philly. Unless the Giants find some kind of defense, the Eagles and Cowboys will once again be battling for NFC East supremacy. Buckle up for this one!
Buffalo at New York Jets, November 12th (Thursday Night Football)
It will be interesting to see how Rex Ryan will be welcomed back by Jet fans. Were his late failures enough to wipe out his early successes? This will be a brutal offensive game, but a joy for people who love great defense. It is very possible that these two defenses could be ranked first and second in the NFL by the time this game is played. We'll also get to see the matchup of newly acquired LeSean McCoy against one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Buffalo at New England, November 23rd (Monday Night Football)
So, we meet again, but in a different uniform. Rex Ryan seemed to always know how to play Bill Belichick and the Pats tough while he was in New York, and I think he'll have even more success with the Bills. Ryan will take a great defense, star rookie WR, and one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL into Foxborough to try and knock off the Pats. The Bills haven't won an AFC East title since 1995, and they'll need to vanquish the Patriots if they are to end that drought.
Chicago at Green Bay, November 26th (Thanksgiving)
This game always has enough intrigue to tune in, but it was recently announced that Brett Favre's jersey will finally be retired at this game as well. After years of coldness shown from the Packer organization towards Favre, I think he will get a warm reception on what will be a cold night at Lambeau. Depending on how well Chicago adjusts to the new coaching staff, this could also be a pivotal game in deciding who wins the NFC North. This will be a great game and spectacle to watch as you digest all the turkey you ate during the day.
New England at Denver, November 29th (Sunday Night Football)
This might be the last Brady vs Manning, although it might be Brady vs Osweiler if Manning's health doesn't hold up. Whenever these two QBs meet, you know there is going to be great football played. If Manning's health holds up, these two teams could be fighting not only for a playoff spot, but for the #1 seed and home field advantage.
Buffalo at Philadelphia, December 13th
LeSean McCoy's return to Philly should produce plenty of fireworks. Chip Kelly's offense has been able to do well against not-so-great NFC East defenses, but let's see what happens against Rex and the Bills. I think it might slow down more than Chip would like. McCoy felt like the Eagles did him wrong by trading him away, so the motivation for him should be at the max. Given the Eagles' so-so performance against the run last year, I wouldn't be surprised if McCoy gets unleashed in Philly for this game.
Dallas at Green Bay, December 13th
Returning to the scene of the crime. I think both teams will be highly motivated as Dallas wants to prove that they should have beat the Pack, while the Packers will want to prove that they can beat Dallas even if there is no controversial catch involved. I expect Dallas to go to Dez Bryant early and often to send a message to the Packers. The Dallas defense, however, is still far from elite, so I expect Rodgers to once again move the Packer offense with relative ease. Expect another high scoring, close game.
All of Week 17
Fantasy football season might be over at this point, but the regular season in the NFL won't be. Every single game is a divisional game with likely playoff implications. You'll also probably have teams that are trying to play spoiler, just to save their season and say that they knocked out their rival.
Matty O
This matchup becomes much less enticing if one or both of these teams do not draft a QB with the first two picks in the draft. If, however, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are the first two players selected in this year's draft by these two teams, then this game could be the highlight of opening weekend. Obviously they would need to win the starting QB job, but both are certainly capable of doing that. The build up of having a Mariota vs Winston showdown would be off the charts for Week 1.
Seattle at Green Bay, September 20th (Sunday Night Football)
If you saw the NFC Championship game last year, then you know why this is a must see game. The Packers were heading towards a Super Bowl berth, before imploding in the fourth quarter and allowing the Seahawks to comeback and beat the Pack in overtime. In Lambeau, the Pack will be looking for revenge, though this game won't guarantee anyone anything. Even without that backdrop, you still have Aaron Rodgers going against the Legion of Boom (sans Byron Maxwell) in an awesome Week 2 matchup.
New York Jets at Indianapolis, September 21st (Monday Night Football)
This is your classic unstoppable force versus the immovable object. Andrew Luck has helped turn the Colts into one of the most feared offenses in the league. They will welcome the new look New York Jets, who have another defensive minded coach, and a much improved secondary. The Jets reunited Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, who wreaked havoc under Rex Ryan. New head coach Todd Bowles will bring the same kind of defensive toughness to this team that Ryan did. With run stuffers Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson already on the roster, this has the making of being one of the best defenses in the league. Luck and the Colts will be their first true test.
Indianapolis at Houston, October 8th (Thursday Night Football)
Houston has long been trying to fight for respect and the title in the AFC South. Unfortunately for them, the Colts have transitioned from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck quite nicely. Last year, however, the Texans gave them two great games, losing by seven points or less in each of them. If Jadeveon Clowney is healthy for this game, he and JJ Watt will be a force to be reckoned with. NRG Stadium will be a sea of red for this prime time matchup against a division rival.
New England at Dallas, October 11th
Arguably the two most hated (and loved) teams in the NFL get to go at it in Jerry World. The hype for this game will be off the charts, regardless of the two teams' records at this point. There are Dallas fans out there (myself included) that believe that had Dez Bryant's catch been called a catch, that Dallas and New England would have been the Super Bowl matchup. I guess the Cowboy fan base will have to settle for an early season game at home to see how well they stack up against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
Green Bay at Denver, November 1st (Sunday Night Football)
As long as Peyton Manning's health holds up, this should be a great battle of two of the best QBs in the business. Aaron Rodgers does what he does, and if Manning can play like he did at the beginning of last year instead of at the end, then this should be a great game. Both teams also possess extremely productive running backs (Eddie Lacy and CJ Anderson) so the defenses will be put to the test here. Both teams also should be carrying the "Team of Destiny" banner into 2015 as this may be Peyton's final year and Green Bay will be looking to avenge that debacle in Seattle.
Denver at Indianapolis, November 8th
This might be the last time Peyton ever plays at Lucas Oil Stadium. Similar to when he first came back, I'm sure it will be an emotionally charged game, particularly if he has indicated in some way that he will definitely retire after this season. The Denver/Indy games have been great since Luck took over in Indy and Peyton went to Denver, and I expect more of the same.
Philadelphia at Dallas, November 8th (Sunday Night Football)
As a Cowboy fan, I'm looking forward to this game more than any other this season. Even if you're not a Cowboy fan, you should not miss this one. The two division rivals hate each other to begin with, but now with DeMarco Murray signing with the enemy, it will only add to the fervor of this game. I expect the atmosphere to be electric and the game to have a bit of nasty to it. I also expect Murray to be booed unmercifully. The Eagles blasted the Cowboys on Thanksgiving last year, only to lose to the Cowboys, and give away the division, two weeks later in Philly. Unless the Giants find some kind of defense, the Eagles and Cowboys will once again be battling for NFC East supremacy. Buckle up for this one!
Buffalo at New York Jets, November 12th (Thursday Night Football)
It will be interesting to see how Rex Ryan will be welcomed back by Jet fans. Were his late failures enough to wipe out his early successes? This will be a brutal offensive game, but a joy for people who love great defense. It is very possible that these two defenses could be ranked first and second in the NFL by the time this game is played. We'll also get to see the matchup of newly acquired LeSean McCoy against one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Buffalo at New England, November 23rd (Monday Night Football)
So, we meet again, but in a different uniform. Rex Ryan seemed to always know how to play Bill Belichick and the Pats tough while he was in New York, and I think he'll have even more success with the Bills. Ryan will take a great defense, star rookie WR, and one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL into Foxborough to try and knock off the Pats. The Bills haven't won an AFC East title since 1995, and they'll need to vanquish the Patriots if they are to end that drought.
Chicago at Green Bay, November 26th (Thanksgiving)
This game always has enough intrigue to tune in, but it was recently announced that Brett Favre's jersey will finally be retired at this game as well. After years of coldness shown from the Packer organization towards Favre, I think he will get a warm reception on what will be a cold night at Lambeau. Depending on how well Chicago adjusts to the new coaching staff, this could also be a pivotal game in deciding who wins the NFC North. This will be a great game and spectacle to watch as you digest all the turkey you ate during the day.
New England at Denver, November 29th (Sunday Night Football)
This might be the last Brady vs Manning, although it might be Brady vs Osweiler if Manning's health doesn't hold up. Whenever these two QBs meet, you know there is going to be great football played. If Manning's health holds up, these two teams could be fighting not only for a playoff spot, but for the #1 seed and home field advantage.
Buffalo at Philadelphia, December 13th
LeSean McCoy's return to Philly should produce plenty of fireworks. Chip Kelly's offense has been able to do well against not-so-great NFC East defenses, but let's see what happens against Rex and the Bills. I think it might slow down more than Chip would like. McCoy felt like the Eagles did him wrong by trading him away, so the motivation for him should be at the max. Given the Eagles' so-so performance against the run last year, I wouldn't be surprised if McCoy gets unleashed in Philly for this game.
Dallas at Green Bay, December 13th
Returning to the scene of the crime. I think both teams will be highly motivated as Dallas wants to prove that they should have beat the Pack, while the Packers will want to prove that they can beat Dallas even if there is no controversial catch involved. I expect Dallas to go to Dez Bryant early and often to send a message to the Packers. The Dallas defense, however, is still far from elite, so I expect Rodgers to once again move the Packer offense with relative ease. Expect another high scoring, close game.
All of Week 17
Fantasy football season might be over at this point, but the regular season in the NFL won't be. Every single game is a divisional game with likely playoff implications. You'll also probably have teams that are trying to play spoiler, just to save their season and say that they knocked out their rival.
Matty O
Monday, March 30, 2015
The Tourney So Far And Final Four Preview
Eight Is Great
After a dreadful round of 32 and a less than memorable Sweet 16, I was beginning to wonder if all the excitement of this year's tourney had been used up on Day 1. Even going into the Elite Eight matchups, I had my doubts about how much excitement we would see. Arizona and Wisconsin was going to be a sure fire great game, but the other three had potential snooze fest written all over them. Kentucky just came off an obliteration of West Virginia, and Notre Dame had cut it close in every game they had played up to that point, including a first round, four point win over Northeastern. Louisville might have been the higher seed, but they were still a poor offensive team and faced the 13, 5, and 8 seeds to get to the Elite Eight, while Michigan State had to beat the 10, 2, and 3 seeds to get there. Duke and Gonzaga had potential, but the Zags had yet to be truly tested and Duke had been rolling up to that point.
Thankfully, all four games were competitive with the Kentucky-Notre Dame game sure to go down as an instant classic. I thought Kentucky was dead in the water, but the Harrison twins came up big down the stretch. The Zona-Wisconsin game was as good as advertised as Frank Kaminsky may have led the Badgers in scoring, but it was Sam Dekker that put the nail in Arizona's coffin. MSU-Louisville went all the way to overtime as the duo of Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice led the Spartans. Duke-Gonzaga was a close game until there was five minutes left to go in the game. From then, with Duke only up by two, the Zags scored only one point in the final five minutes and lost by 14. Both Final Four matchups should provide us with the same amount of excitement with Wisconsin-Kentucky on one side and Duke-Michigan State on the other.
Undefeated, Unbeatable, Un-Hateable?
Hatred in sports is often fueled by winning. Entering the tournament, who hated Georgia State? Who envied Hampton and wanted them to lose with a passion? A select few, and even that might be an overestimation. They don't have rich histories, they don't win titles, and they don't have five star recruits lining up to go to their school. On the other end of that spectrum is a team like Kentucky. UK essentially plays next year's NBA All-Rookie team, has a future Hall of Fame coach in John Calipari, and has as rich of a basketball tradition as anyone. So, why do I find myself actually rooting for them? Why am I hoping for this undefeated season to come true?
Maybe it's my love for another polarizing team (Dallas Cowboys) that blinds me, but I just don't see what you can hate about this team in particular. Most of the time elite teams have that one player that you can rally your hate around. In recent memory, you think about the likes of Adam Morrison, JJ Redick, Tyler Hansbrough, and my personal favorite player to hate, Aaron Craft, and it would stand to reason that someone on this undefeated Kentucky team should be labeled as "hateable." I have yet to find that player. Perhaps it's because Coach Cal plays so many players that it is impossible for fans to pick out someone to hate. All I know is that this team doesn't showboat, they don't get in trouble off the court, and they accept their roles as part of a team, rather than pursuing individual fame.
Kentucky has also had the added benefit of playing not-so-likealbe teams so far. The Hampton game was whatever, but the Cincy game got pretty rough. Cincy, in my opinion, took it too far and were acting like punks, intentionally trying to rattle Kentucky. Intentional or not, it sparked the Wildcats down the stretch and turned a competitive game into a comfortable win. West Virginia might have gotten the people's sympathy if freshman Daxter Miles Jr. hadn't run his mouth and said Kentucky doesn't play hard. UK embarrassed West Virginia and doubled their score. Their last game was conveniently against one of the most hated (and loved) sports programs in America, Notre Dame. The fact that it was such a good game should have left fans with nothing but respect for both teams. For history and interest in the tournament's sake, I hope these Wildcats can close it out and finish undefeated.
Coaching Excellence
No offense to Bo Ryan, but if Roy Williams and North Carolina had beaten Wisconsin and Arizona to get to the Final Four, this group of coaches would have been even better. Regardless, this is still a fantastic group in the Final Four. John Calipari, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, and Ryan are four of the best coaches in college basketball, with the former three arguably the top three. It's incredible to think that at least one of these coaches have been in every Final Four since 2007. Heck, Coach Cal even made it in 2008 without wearing Kentucky Blue (he coached Derrick Rose's Memphis team). Given the volatile behavior and mentality of 18-22 year old college kids, it really is an amazing feat to sustain that level of consistency. The battle that rages between the players on the court will be what gets the attention, but the battle of strategy and motivational tactics between the coaches may be what decides these two games.
All Big Ten Final
If MSU and Wisconsin both win, then there would be an all Big Ten final, as the teams would meet for the third time this season. A championship game with two teams from the same conference hasn't happened since 1988 when Kansas and Oklahoma met as members of the Big Eight Conference. Due to scheduling, these two teams only met once during the regular season, with Wisconsin coming away with a seven point victory at home. They met two weeks later in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. State appeared to have the game in hand as they were up 11 with seven and a half minutes left to play, and were controlling the game. Wisconsin rallied to tie the game in regulation, before shutting out the Spartans in overtime and winning the Big Ten title. I have no doubt a potential third matchup would be another tight one, but both will have to beat the odds and pull upsets in the Final Four.
Kentucky vs Wisconsin
I would've felt better about Wisconsin's chances before this past weekend's Elite Eight games. I say that, not because of how Kentucky or Wisconsin played, but because Notre Dame played a hellacious game and still lost to the Wildcats. While UK was unlucky at times and simply missed some easy shots, there were a couple things that Notre Dame exposed in their loss. The first is that UK is not the greatest team in their half court offense. If you can get numbers back so they can't fast break, they sometimes struggle finding a good shot. Wisconsin is great in their half court defense and could cause a cold spell for UK's offense. Wisconsin is an experienced and disciplined enough team to know that getting into a shootout with UK is a recipe for failure. The second thing is that Kentucky's bigs can be beat defensively. Zach Auguste shredded the Cats inside, particularly Karl Anthony Towns, to the point where Coach Cal had to substitute Towns off the court for defensive possessions. Auguste is a great player, but he's no Frank Kaminsky. Frank the Tank should, and will need to, have a big game down low in the post.
From Kentucky's vantage point, however, they have to feel great about their matchup inside on the offensive end. I mentioned how Towns was subbed out for defensive possessions because he struggled so much, but he was put right back in for offensive possessions because he was so unstoppable. Towns finished with 25 points on 10 of 13 shooting and was automatic once he established position down low. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin chooses to double him. Notre Dame refused to do so, even as Towns was racking up points. Kaminsky is a good defender, but Towns has the ability to out-muscle Frank. Bo Ryan may even put Kaminsky on Willie Cauley-Stein because of the length and athleticism of both players. Regardless, I think Kentucky, like Wisconsin, will have an advantage down low on the offensive end.
So what decides this game? Well, with things sort of washing out down low, I think it will come down to how both teams won their Elite Eight matchups. If Sam Dekker can provide solid complimentary scoring to Kaminsky while keeping the threat of the three pointer in the minds of Kentucky defenders, then I think they have a great shot. While the Harrison twins didn't score a lot of points in the Elite Eight game, they made crucial shots down the stretch. If both of them, along with Devin Booker can knock down their shots, then Kentucky will have a great chance to win. In the end, I think Kentucky's depth gets to Wisconsin and Dekker hits some, but not enough, big shots down the stretch as the Cats win a tight one.
Final Score: Kentucky - 76, Wisconsin - 72
Michigan State vs Duke
If I were the Spartans, I wouldn't worry about that 10 point loss to Duke early in the season. Both teams were still figuring out who they were and both teams have improved immensely. I would, however, worry about Jahlil Okafor and the fact that MSU doesn't have anyone that can guard him one on one. Don't feel too bad though, not many teams have that. The key will be how often, and when, MSU does double Okafor. The Zags and Utes did that all game, leading to a combined 15 points for Okafor in the last two rounds. The bad news is that it freed up Duke's guards for wide open shots. Therein lies the problem for any team that faces Duke. Even if you stop Okafor's point totals, he is still a major factor because it opens up someone else on the floor. Okafor can be one of the players of the game without scoring in double digits because of the attention that he draws on every possession. I suppose forcing Duke to make shots rather than allowing Okafor to work people over down low is the better of the two options, but neither is enticing for a coach.
I still can't figure out how this Spartan team has come so far. Yes, Tom Izzo is a whiz in March, but he usually does it with more talented teams than this. Even he has admitted that, talent wise, this team is not the greatest. They have been successful by improving in all aspects throughout the year and playing as a unit. Their defense has been spectacular this tournament and is the foundation of why they are playing in the Final Four as a seven seed. Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson are the trio that runs the show on the offensive side of the ball. Trice has developed into a do-it-all kind of player with a propensity to hit clutch shots. Valentine can play big, but still has a shooters touch. Dawson is their guy down low and should see plenty of Okafor on Saturday.
This game will be strength on strength. Duke is one of the most balanced offensive teams in the nation and will put points on the board no matter what defensive strategy their opponent draws up. MSU has played lights out defense this tournament, albeit against teams that were not the greatest offensively. This game's deciding factor is pretty simple; can Duke make their threes? Okafor will get doubled, players will be open, and shots will be fired. I think this winds up being a classic, hard fought game, but I think Michigan State's lack of pure talent finally catches up with them as Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow make enough shots for Duke to advance.
Final Score: Duke - 68, Michigan State - 67
Duke vs Kentucky
This would be a nightmare matchup for Duke because of Willie Cauley-Stein and the depth of Kentucky. Duke essentially plays four guards with Justice Winslow listed as a forward even though he's only 6'6". This normally wouldn't be a problem except Cauley-Stein can move and keep up with guards, but just so happens to be seven feet tall. Coach K can choose to put in a Amile Jefferson, but then one of his talented guards will be off the floor. Towns and Okafor would be a heck of a matchup down low between two likely NBA lottery picks, but Cauley Stein would be the deciding factor on the perimeter. Duke also has virtually no bench to go to, while UK subs people in and out, early and often. This will wear on the Blue Devis, particularly Okafor. Dakari Johnson, Cauley-Stein, and Towns would collectively be able to wear down Okafor as Okafor has no backup that is even close to his skill level. Duke would hang early on, but Kentucky would pull away and win by a comfortable margin.
Final Score: Kentucky - 82, Duke - 72
Matty O
After a dreadful round of 32 and a less than memorable Sweet 16, I was beginning to wonder if all the excitement of this year's tourney had been used up on Day 1. Even going into the Elite Eight matchups, I had my doubts about how much excitement we would see. Arizona and Wisconsin was going to be a sure fire great game, but the other three had potential snooze fest written all over them. Kentucky just came off an obliteration of West Virginia, and Notre Dame had cut it close in every game they had played up to that point, including a first round, four point win over Northeastern. Louisville might have been the higher seed, but they were still a poor offensive team and faced the 13, 5, and 8 seeds to get to the Elite Eight, while Michigan State had to beat the 10, 2, and 3 seeds to get there. Duke and Gonzaga had potential, but the Zags had yet to be truly tested and Duke had been rolling up to that point.
Thankfully, all four games were competitive with the Kentucky-Notre Dame game sure to go down as an instant classic. I thought Kentucky was dead in the water, but the Harrison twins came up big down the stretch. The Zona-Wisconsin game was as good as advertised as Frank Kaminsky may have led the Badgers in scoring, but it was Sam Dekker that put the nail in Arizona's coffin. MSU-Louisville went all the way to overtime as the duo of Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice led the Spartans. Duke-Gonzaga was a close game until there was five minutes left to go in the game. From then, with Duke only up by two, the Zags scored only one point in the final five minutes and lost by 14. Both Final Four matchups should provide us with the same amount of excitement with Wisconsin-Kentucky on one side and Duke-Michigan State on the other.
Undefeated, Unbeatable, Un-Hateable?
Hatred in sports is often fueled by winning. Entering the tournament, who hated Georgia State? Who envied Hampton and wanted them to lose with a passion? A select few, and even that might be an overestimation. They don't have rich histories, they don't win titles, and they don't have five star recruits lining up to go to their school. On the other end of that spectrum is a team like Kentucky. UK essentially plays next year's NBA All-Rookie team, has a future Hall of Fame coach in John Calipari, and has as rich of a basketball tradition as anyone. So, why do I find myself actually rooting for them? Why am I hoping for this undefeated season to come true?
Maybe it's my love for another polarizing team (Dallas Cowboys) that blinds me, but I just don't see what you can hate about this team in particular. Most of the time elite teams have that one player that you can rally your hate around. In recent memory, you think about the likes of Adam Morrison, JJ Redick, Tyler Hansbrough, and my personal favorite player to hate, Aaron Craft, and it would stand to reason that someone on this undefeated Kentucky team should be labeled as "hateable." I have yet to find that player. Perhaps it's because Coach Cal plays so many players that it is impossible for fans to pick out someone to hate. All I know is that this team doesn't showboat, they don't get in trouble off the court, and they accept their roles as part of a team, rather than pursuing individual fame.
Kentucky has also had the added benefit of playing not-so-likealbe teams so far. The Hampton game was whatever, but the Cincy game got pretty rough. Cincy, in my opinion, took it too far and were acting like punks, intentionally trying to rattle Kentucky. Intentional or not, it sparked the Wildcats down the stretch and turned a competitive game into a comfortable win. West Virginia might have gotten the people's sympathy if freshman Daxter Miles Jr. hadn't run his mouth and said Kentucky doesn't play hard. UK embarrassed West Virginia and doubled their score. Their last game was conveniently against one of the most hated (and loved) sports programs in America, Notre Dame. The fact that it was such a good game should have left fans with nothing but respect for both teams. For history and interest in the tournament's sake, I hope these Wildcats can close it out and finish undefeated.
Coaching Excellence
No offense to Bo Ryan, but if Roy Williams and North Carolina had beaten Wisconsin and Arizona to get to the Final Four, this group of coaches would have been even better. Regardless, this is still a fantastic group in the Final Four. John Calipari, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, and Ryan are four of the best coaches in college basketball, with the former three arguably the top three. It's incredible to think that at least one of these coaches have been in every Final Four since 2007. Heck, Coach Cal even made it in 2008 without wearing Kentucky Blue (he coached Derrick Rose's Memphis team). Given the volatile behavior and mentality of 18-22 year old college kids, it really is an amazing feat to sustain that level of consistency. The battle that rages between the players on the court will be what gets the attention, but the battle of strategy and motivational tactics between the coaches may be what decides these two games.
All Big Ten Final
If MSU and Wisconsin both win, then there would be an all Big Ten final, as the teams would meet for the third time this season. A championship game with two teams from the same conference hasn't happened since 1988 when Kansas and Oklahoma met as members of the Big Eight Conference. Due to scheduling, these two teams only met once during the regular season, with Wisconsin coming away with a seven point victory at home. They met two weeks later in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. State appeared to have the game in hand as they were up 11 with seven and a half minutes left to play, and were controlling the game. Wisconsin rallied to tie the game in regulation, before shutting out the Spartans in overtime and winning the Big Ten title. I have no doubt a potential third matchup would be another tight one, but both will have to beat the odds and pull upsets in the Final Four.
Kentucky vs Wisconsin
I would've felt better about Wisconsin's chances before this past weekend's Elite Eight games. I say that, not because of how Kentucky or Wisconsin played, but because Notre Dame played a hellacious game and still lost to the Wildcats. While UK was unlucky at times and simply missed some easy shots, there were a couple things that Notre Dame exposed in their loss. The first is that UK is not the greatest team in their half court offense. If you can get numbers back so they can't fast break, they sometimes struggle finding a good shot. Wisconsin is great in their half court defense and could cause a cold spell for UK's offense. Wisconsin is an experienced and disciplined enough team to know that getting into a shootout with UK is a recipe for failure. The second thing is that Kentucky's bigs can be beat defensively. Zach Auguste shredded the Cats inside, particularly Karl Anthony Towns, to the point where Coach Cal had to substitute Towns off the court for defensive possessions. Auguste is a great player, but he's no Frank Kaminsky. Frank the Tank should, and will need to, have a big game down low in the post.
From Kentucky's vantage point, however, they have to feel great about their matchup inside on the offensive end. I mentioned how Towns was subbed out for defensive possessions because he struggled so much, but he was put right back in for offensive possessions because he was so unstoppable. Towns finished with 25 points on 10 of 13 shooting and was automatic once he established position down low. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin chooses to double him. Notre Dame refused to do so, even as Towns was racking up points. Kaminsky is a good defender, but Towns has the ability to out-muscle Frank. Bo Ryan may even put Kaminsky on Willie Cauley-Stein because of the length and athleticism of both players. Regardless, I think Kentucky, like Wisconsin, will have an advantage down low on the offensive end.
So what decides this game? Well, with things sort of washing out down low, I think it will come down to how both teams won their Elite Eight matchups. If Sam Dekker can provide solid complimentary scoring to Kaminsky while keeping the threat of the three pointer in the minds of Kentucky defenders, then I think they have a great shot. While the Harrison twins didn't score a lot of points in the Elite Eight game, they made crucial shots down the stretch. If both of them, along with Devin Booker can knock down their shots, then Kentucky will have a great chance to win. In the end, I think Kentucky's depth gets to Wisconsin and Dekker hits some, but not enough, big shots down the stretch as the Cats win a tight one.
Final Score: Kentucky - 76, Wisconsin - 72
Michigan State vs Duke
If I were the Spartans, I wouldn't worry about that 10 point loss to Duke early in the season. Both teams were still figuring out who they were and both teams have improved immensely. I would, however, worry about Jahlil Okafor and the fact that MSU doesn't have anyone that can guard him one on one. Don't feel too bad though, not many teams have that. The key will be how often, and when, MSU does double Okafor. The Zags and Utes did that all game, leading to a combined 15 points for Okafor in the last two rounds. The bad news is that it freed up Duke's guards for wide open shots. Therein lies the problem for any team that faces Duke. Even if you stop Okafor's point totals, he is still a major factor because it opens up someone else on the floor. Okafor can be one of the players of the game without scoring in double digits because of the attention that he draws on every possession. I suppose forcing Duke to make shots rather than allowing Okafor to work people over down low is the better of the two options, but neither is enticing for a coach.
I still can't figure out how this Spartan team has come so far. Yes, Tom Izzo is a whiz in March, but he usually does it with more talented teams than this. Even he has admitted that, talent wise, this team is not the greatest. They have been successful by improving in all aspects throughout the year and playing as a unit. Their defense has been spectacular this tournament and is the foundation of why they are playing in the Final Four as a seven seed. Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson are the trio that runs the show on the offensive side of the ball. Trice has developed into a do-it-all kind of player with a propensity to hit clutch shots. Valentine can play big, but still has a shooters touch. Dawson is their guy down low and should see plenty of Okafor on Saturday.
This game will be strength on strength. Duke is one of the most balanced offensive teams in the nation and will put points on the board no matter what defensive strategy their opponent draws up. MSU has played lights out defense this tournament, albeit against teams that were not the greatest offensively. This game's deciding factor is pretty simple; can Duke make their threes? Okafor will get doubled, players will be open, and shots will be fired. I think this winds up being a classic, hard fought game, but I think Michigan State's lack of pure talent finally catches up with them as Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow make enough shots for Duke to advance.
Final Score: Duke - 68, Michigan State - 67
Duke vs Kentucky
This would be a nightmare matchup for Duke because of Willie Cauley-Stein and the depth of Kentucky. Duke essentially plays four guards with Justice Winslow listed as a forward even though he's only 6'6". This normally wouldn't be a problem except Cauley-Stein can move and keep up with guards, but just so happens to be seven feet tall. Coach K can choose to put in a Amile Jefferson, but then one of his talented guards will be off the floor. Towns and Okafor would be a heck of a matchup down low between two likely NBA lottery picks, but Cauley Stein would be the deciding factor on the perimeter. Duke also has virtually no bench to go to, while UK subs people in and out, early and often. This will wear on the Blue Devis, particularly Okafor. Dakari Johnson, Cauley-Stein, and Towns would collectively be able to wear down Okafor as Okafor has no backup that is even close to his skill level. Duke would hang early on, but Kentucky would pull away and win by a comfortable margin.
Final Score: Kentucky - 82, Duke - 72
Matty O
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
2015 Regional Breakdown: Final Four & Final Thoughts
Kentucky vs North Carolina
Kentucky vs anybody would not be good for the "anybody." UNC's depth will be neutralized in this game as Kentucky has even better depth. There is little, if any, drop off from Kentucky's starters to their subs that they bring in. Marcus Paige could still go off, but even that probably won't be enough. Kentucky is simply too deep, too balanced, and too good. Carolina keeps it close, but can't close it out in the end.
Virginia vs Gonzaga
This is your classic unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Virginia is first in the nation in points allowed, limiting opponents to just over 50 points per game. They dictate the tempo of the game and limit the pressure put on their average offense to score. The 'Zags meanwhile, rank 10th in points per game and first in field goal percentage. The 'Zags need to press the issue, similar to when Duke beat Virginia, and try to get a lot of fast break opportunities, even if they don't always convert those opportunities into points. If you let Virginia set up in their half court defense, even the 'Zags will find it hard to score. At this stage in the tourney, I'll take an elite defense over an elite offense any day of the week. Virginia's defense has been battle tested in a loaded ACC this year. With Justin Anderson fully back in the swing of things by this point, I think the Cavaliers pull it out.
Championship Game: Kentucky vs Virginia
If you believe in the adage that "offense wins games, defense wins championships," then this is the game for you. Virginia might be first in points allowed, but UK is right behind them in third and also are second in the nation in blocks per game. I think this is a defensive, grind-it-out kind of game, as neither of these teams have seen a defense quite like the one they will face in the title game. I'll still go with UK because their offense has improved and is certainly better than Virginia's. The Wildcats also possess the height and length advantage over Virginia. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but I think the Wildcats finish off their season as National Champions and undefeated.
Final Thoughts
Beware The Twos - Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arizona all could make a case to be one seeds. Kansas drew a tough matchup in the second round, but if Wichita falls in the first round, then the Jayhawks could make some noise.
Top Seed Tourney - While I have some upsets scattered around my bracket, I don't see any crazy deep runs by lower seeds. My Elite Eight has three number one seeds, two number twos, two number threes, and a four.
I Got A Feeling Upsets - There are always those upsets that happen where you can't explain them, but you just have a feeling that something fishy might happen. Here are a few that I have a bad feeling about, but I couldn't actually pull the trigger and put them in my bracket.
Kentucky vs anybody would not be good for the "anybody." UNC's depth will be neutralized in this game as Kentucky has even better depth. There is little, if any, drop off from Kentucky's starters to their subs that they bring in. Marcus Paige could still go off, but even that probably won't be enough. Kentucky is simply too deep, too balanced, and too good. Carolina keeps it close, but can't close it out in the end.
Virginia vs Gonzaga
This is your classic unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Virginia is first in the nation in points allowed, limiting opponents to just over 50 points per game. They dictate the tempo of the game and limit the pressure put on their average offense to score. The 'Zags meanwhile, rank 10th in points per game and first in field goal percentage. The 'Zags need to press the issue, similar to when Duke beat Virginia, and try to get a lot of fast break opportunities, even if they don't always convert those opportunities into points. If you let Virginia set up in their half court defense, even the 'Zags will find it hard to score. At this stage in the tourney, I'll take an elite defense over an elite offense any day of the week. Virginia's defense has been battle tested in a loaded ACC this year. With Justin Anderson fully back in the swing of things by this point, I think the Cavaliers pull it out.
Championship Game: Kentucky vs Virginia
If you believe in the adage that "offense wins games, defense wins championships," then this is the game for you. Virginia might be first in points allowed, but UK is right behind them in third and also are second in the nation in blocks per game. I think this is a defensive, grind-it-out kind of game, as neither of these teams have seen a defense quite like the one they will face in the title game. I'll still go with UK because their offense has improved and is certainly better than Virginia's. The Wildcats also possess the height and length advantage over Virginia. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but I think the Wildcats finish off their season as National Champions and undefeated.
Final Thoughts
Beware The Twos - Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arizona all could make a case to be one seeds. Kansas drew a tough matchup in the second round, but if Wichita falls in the first round, then the Jayhawks could make some noise.
Top Seed Tourney - While I have some upsets scattered around my bracket, I don't see any crazy deep runs by lower seeds. My Elite Eight has three number one seeds, two number twos, two number threes, and a four.
I Got A Feeling Upsets - There are always those upsets that happen where you can't explain them, but you just have a feeling that something fishy might happen. Here are a few that I have a bad feeling about, but I couldn't actually pull the trigger and put them in my bracket.
- Midwest - Buffalo over West Virginia, Texas over Butler, Wichita State over Notre Dame
- East - Northern Iowa over Villanova, UC Irvine over Louisville
- South - San Diego State over Duke, Davidson over Iowa
- West - Georgia State over Baylor, Ohio State over Arizona
2015 Regional Breakdown: West
Participants
Wisconsin, Coastal Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wofford, North Carolina, Xavier, Ole Miss, Baylor, Georgia State, VCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas Southern
Team That Will Overachieve: North Carolina
The combination of a favorable opening weekend draw and the ability to match up well with the number one seeded Badgers, makes the Tar Heels a dark horse in this region. UNC has the talent to knock off anybody in the country, they just have had a hard time closing out games. At Louisville, at Duke, and in the ACC Championship against Notre Dame are all games they had in hand and let slip away. The good news is they have also shown their own resilience, particularly their comeback win against Louisville after being down 13 with eight minutes left to play. Harvard barely made it into the tournament, and Wofford and Arkansas don't worry me at all. Stylistically, UNC plays very similar to Duke, apart from the increase in zone defense that Duke has run this year. Duke just happens to be the only non-Big 10 team to beat Wisconsin this year, winning by 10 at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin is invincible. UNC runs deep, as they have 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. UNC doesn't have an individual that can stop Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, but a collective effort from Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson could slow him down. Offensively, Marcus Paige is the kind of player that, if he gets hot, can carry a team through a single elimination tournament such as this (think Stephen Curry of Davidson or Kemba Walker of UConn). If UNC can close out games, it would not surprise me if they win this region.
Team That Will Underachieve: Arizona
Maybe it's because their games don't start until after my bedtime, but I'm not a believer in this team despite a lot of experts picking them as a popular selection to win this region. Admittedly, there is a lot to like about them though. Arizona won all their marquee games, including non-conference wins over San Diego State and Gonzaga, and haven't lost since early February. They have arguably the best starting five in the country (including Kentucky) and are in the top 22 in points per game and points against. So why the doubt? For starters, they have to face the winner of the best 7/10 matchup in the tournament. They will either be matched up against VCU's HAVOC defense that pressures the heck out of teams, or they will be given the unenviable task of trying to stop future top five NBA draft pick D'Angelo Russell of the Ohio State Buckeyes. If they get by that, I think a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor could be their downfall, given Baylor's athleticism and rebounding prowess. I still have the Wildcats advancing to the Sweet 16, but I'm sure they would be looking for more than that.
Bold Prediction: Top Four Seeds Advance To Sweet 16
None of my other regions have all top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16, and this is one of the most difficult regions for all four top seeds to advance past the first weekend. Oregon can give Wisconsin trouble for a good 25 minutes before the Badgers likely pull away. 'Zona has the hardest second round matchup in the region. Baylor should be on upset alert right from the start as Georgia State has a legitimate backcourt with RJ Hunter and Ryan Harrow, though they don't have much else. UNC is the only top seed that should get a fairly calm first weekend. Normally, however, something crazy happens during the first weekend to prevent a top four seed from reaching the Sweet 16. While I do have two first round upsets in this region (Wofford over Arkansas, Ohio State over VCU), I don't think any Cinderella shenanigans happen in the second round of this region.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 10
This region has quality teams from top to bottom. 'Zona, based on resume alone, could argue that they deserve to be a one seed. UNC has all the tools to advance far in any region and they are the fourth seed. VCU and OSU will at least knock one or the other out of the tournament, but the remaining team is one to watch out for. Number 12 Wofford pulls the upset I believe, and Georgia State should give Baylor all it can handle in the first round. While I would have liked BYU's chances more, 11th seeded Ole Miss could make some noise as there is usually one play-in team that performs decently in the tournament.
Winner Of Region: North Carolina
UNC's depth is key with the two games in two days format of the tournament. Closing out games will be key no matter who their opponent is, but especially down the stretch against teams like Wisconsin. Marcus Paige is the ultimate x-factor as he can single handedly turn UNC from an early exit team to a Final Four team.
Matty O
Wisconsin, Coastal Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wofford, North Carolina, Xavier, Ole Miss, Baylor, Georgia State, VCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas Southern
Team That Will Overachieve: North Carolina
The combination of a favorable opening weekend draw and the ability to match up well with the number one seeded Badgers, makes the Tar Heels a dark horse in this region. UNC has the talent to knock off anybody in the country, they just have had a hard time closing out games. At Louisville, at Duke, and in the ACC Championship against Notre Dame are all games they had in hand and let slip away. The good news is they have also shown their own resilience, particularly their comeback win against Louisville after being down 13 with eight minutes left to play. Harvard barely made it into the tournament, and Wofford and Arkansas don't worry me at all. Stylistically, UNC plays very similar to Duke, apart from the increase in zone defense that Duke has run this year. Duke just happens to be the only non-Big 10 team to beat Wisconsin this year, winning by 10 at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin is invincible. UNC runs deep, as they have 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. UNC doesn't have an individual that can stop Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, but a collective effort from Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson could slow him down. Offensively, Marcus Paige is the kind of player that, if he gets hot, can carry a team through a single elimination tournament such as this (think Stephen Curry of Davidson or Kemba Walker of UConn). If UNC can close out games, it would not surprise me if they win this region.
Team That Will Underachieve: Arizona
Maybe it's because their games don't start until after my bedtime, but I'm not a believer in this team despite a lot of experts picking them as a popular selection to win this region. Admittedly, there is a lot to like about them though. Arizona won all their marquee games, including non-conference wins over San Diego State and Gonzaga, and haven't lost since early February. They have arguably the best starting five in the country (including Kentucky) and are in the top 22 in points per game and points against. So why the doubt? For starters, they have to face the winner of the best 7/10 matchup in the tournament. They will either be matched up against VCU's HAVOC defense that pressures the heck out of teams, or they will be given the unenviable task of trying to stop future top five NBA draft pick D'Angelo Russell of the Ohio State Buckeyes. If they get by that, I think a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor could be their downfall, given Baylor's athleticism and rebounding prowess. I still have the Wildcats advancing to the Sweet 16, but I'm sure they would be looking for more than that.
Bold Prediction: Top Four Seeds Advance To Sweet 16
None of my other regions have all top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16, and this is one of the most difficult regions for all four top seeds to advance past the first weekend. Oregon can give Wisconsin trouble for a good 25 minutes before the Badgers likely pull away. 'Zona has the hardest second round matchup in the region. Baylor should be on upset alert right from the start as Georgia State has a legitimate backcourt with RJ Hunter and Ryan Harrow, though they don't have much else. UNC is the only top seed that should get a fairly calm first weekend. Normally, however, something crazy happens during the first weekend to prevent a top four seed from reaching the Sweet 16. While I do have two first round upsets in this region (Wofford over Arkansas, Ohio State over VCU), I don't think any Cinderella shenanigans happen in the second round of this region.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 10
This region has quality teams from top to bottom. 'Zona, based on resume alone, could argue that they deserve to be a one seed. UNC has all the tools to advance far in any region and they are the fourth seed. VCU and OSU will at least knock one or the other out of the tournament, but the remaining team is one to watch out for. Number 12 Wofford pulls the upset I believe, and Georgia State should give Baylor all it can handle in the first round. While I would have liked BYU's chances more, 11th seeded Ole Miss could make some noise as there is usually one play-in team that performs decently in the tournament.
Winner Of Region: North Carolina
UNC's depth is key with the two games in two days format of the tournament. Closing out games will be key no matter who their opponent is, but especially down the stretch against teams like Wisconsin. Marcus Paige is the ultimate x-factor as he can single handedly turn UNC from an early exit team to a Final Four team.
Matty O
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
2015 Regional Breakdown: South
Participants
Duke, North Florida/Robert Morris, San Diego State, St. John's, Utah, Stephen F. Austin, Georgetown, Eastern Washington, SMU, UCLA, Iowa State, UAB, Iowa, Davidson, Gonzaga, North Dakota State
Team That Will Overachieve: Gonzaga
Seems strange to call the second seeded 'Zags an overachiever, but given their tournament history, it will be considered an impressive feat if they even get by the first weekend. Consider that the 'Zags have lost in the first or second round every year since 2009. They haven't even made it to their regional final since 1999. They schedule challenging non-conference games, but are rarely tested once West Coast Conference games begin. So why do I think they will go far this year? The main reason is because they have three of the best college basketball players in the country who fill their roles nicely. Kevin Pangos, who it seems like has played there since the dawn of time, runs the show at the point as a distributor and decent scorer. Kyle Wiltjer is probably the most recognizable name on this team because he used to play for Kentucky. He was on UK's 2012 Championship team and won the SEC Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2013 for his excellent shooting coming off the bench. He still shoots lights out from three (46.6%), only now he's a starter at Gonzaga. The final piece to the puzzle is 7'1" center Przemek Karnowski. He clogs the lane and is third on the team in scoring behind Pangos and Wiltjer. This is the best team that coach Mark Few has had, and I think they make it all the way to the Final Four.
Team That Will Underachieve: Georgetown
While it would go against recent trends if the 'Zags were to make the Final Four, it would be right in line with recent trends if Georgetown were to go out early. They have lost in the first or second round every year they've made the tourney since 2008 (2009 and 2014 they didn't make the tournament). The list of debacles includes losing to 10th seeded Davidson in the second round (2008), losing to 14th seeded Ohio in the first round (2010), losing to 11th seeded VCU in the first round (2011), losing to 11th seeded NC State in the second round (2012), and losing to 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the first round (2013). Their only notable road win all year was a six point win at Butler. They face a high flying Eastern Washington team in the first round that I think will show the Hoyas the door in the first round once again.
Bold Prediction: The 12 and 13 Seeds Will Win And Face Each Other In The Second Round
Although this sounds like a bold prediction, the numbers would actually tell you that a scenario like this is likely to happen. Since 2008, this 12/13 matchup has surprisingly happened six times (2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, twice in 2008). The 12 seed is 4-2 in those games, but none of them have advanced any farther. If there is going to be a 12/13 matchup in any region this year, I think it is this one. Eastern Washington's defense is ridiculously bad, but their offense is ridiculously good. They are third in the nation in points per game and 19th in field goal percentage. Georgetown is the more talented team though, and should win this game, but they should've won all those games mentioned above when they got upset. Stephen F. Austin has only lost once since November and returns a lot of the same team that pulled off a 12/5 upset last year over VCU. Utah, like Georgetown, is more talented than their opponent in this matchup, but they failed to win their marquee games (0-4 vs Arizona and Oregon) and wound up with the dreaded five seed. It won't be easy, but both teams have a chance to pull the upsets.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 9
Collectively, this might be the best #1, 2, and 3 seed of all the regions. Duke is Duke, the 'Zags have their triple headed monster, and I like what Iowa State brings to the table athletically with the likes of Georges Niang and Jameel McKay. A potential Sweet 16 matchup between the 'Zags and Cyclones would be a candidate for Game of the Tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington are teams that have a legitimate shot at pulling upsets and San Diego State will give Duke its toughest game until they reach the regional final.
Winner Of Region: Gonzaga
See above. The balance of a point guard, sniper shooter, and big man down low should help them buck the trend of early exits. The 7/10 matchup in their region is also, by far, the weakest of all the 7/10 matchups in the tournament. The 'Zags should cruise until Iowa State.
Matty O
Duke, North Florida/Robert Morris, San Diego State, St. John's, Utah, Stephen F. Austin, Georgetown, Eastern Washington, SMU, UCLA, Iowa State, UAB, Iowa, Davidson, Gonzaga, North Dakota State
Team That Will Overachieve: Gonzaga
Seems strange to call the second seeded 'Zags an overachiever, but given their tournament history, it will be considered an impressive feat if they even get by the first weekend. Consider that the 'Zags have lost in the first or second round every year since 2009. They haven't even made it to their regional final since 1999. They schedule challenging non-conference games, but are rarely tested once West Coast Conference games begin. So why do I think they will go far this year? The main reason is because they have three of the best college basketball players in the country who fill their roles nicely. Kevin Pangos, who it seems like has played there since the dawn of time, runs the show at the point as a distributor and decent scorer. Kyle Wiltjer is probably the most recognizable name on this team because he used to play for Kentucky. He was on UK's 2012 Championship team and won the SEC Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2013 for his excellent shooting coming off the bench. He still shoots lights out from three (46.6%), only now he's a starter at Gonzaga. The final piece to the puzzle is 7'1" center Przemek Karnowski. He clogs the lane and is third on the team in scoring behind Pangos and Wiltjer. This is the best team that coach Mark Few has had, and I think they make it all the way to the Final Four.
Team That Will Underachieve: Georgetown
While it would go against recent trends if the 'Zags were to make the Final Four, it would be right in line with recent trends if Georgetown were to go out early. They have lost in the first or second round every year they've made the tourney since 2008 (2009 and 2014 they didn't make the tournament). The list of debacles includes losing to 10th seeded Davidson in the second round (2008), losing to 14th seeded Ohio in the first round (2010), losing to 11th seeded VCU in the first round (2011), losing to 11th seeded NC State in the second round (2012), and losing to 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the first round (2013). Their only notable road win all year was a six point win at Butler. They face a high flying Eastern Washington team in the first round that I think will show the Hoyas the door in the first round once again.
Bold Prediction: The 12 and 13 Seeds Will Win And Face Each Other In The Second Round
Although this sounds like a bold prediction, the numbers would actually tell you that a scenario like this is likely to happen. Since 2008, this 12/13 matchup has surprisingly happened six times (2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, twice in 2008). The 12 seed is 4-2 in those games, but none of them have advanced any farther. If there is going to be a 12/13 matchup in any region this year, I think it is this one. Eastern Washington's defense is ridiculously bad, but their offense is ridiculously good. They are third in the nation in points per game and 19th in field goal percentage. Georgetown is the more talented team though, and should win this game, but they should've won all those games mentioned above when they got upset. Stephen F. Austin has only lost once since November and returns a lot of the same team that pulled off a 12/5 upset last year over VCU. Utah, like Georgetown, is more talented than their opponent in this matchup, but they failed to win their marquee games (0-4 vs Arizona and Oregon) and wound up with the dreaded five seed. It won't be easy, but both teams have a chance to pull the upsets.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 9
Collectively, this might be the best #1, 2, and 3 seed of all the regions. Duke is Duke, the 'Zags have their triple headed monster, and I like what Iowa State brings to the table athletically with the likes of Georges Niang and Jameel McKay. A potential Sweet 16 matchup between the 'Zags and Cyclones would be a candidate for Game of the Tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington are teams that have a legitimate shot at pulling upsets and San Diego State will give Duke its toughest game until they reach the regional final.
Winner Of Region: Gonzaga
See above. The balance of a point guard, sniper shooter, and big man down low should help them buck the trend of early exits. The 7/10 matchup in their region is also, by far, the weakest of all the 7/10 matchups in the tournament. The 'Zags should cruise until Iowa State.
Matty O
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