St. Louis Rams
Studs: Defense/Special Teams
This unit was highly touted at the start of last season as well, but likely left owners frustrated by the middle of the year. In the Rams' first seven games, this unit gave up 30+ points five times and only registered eight turnovers. After Week 8, however, this unit racked up 17 turnovers, three TDs, and recorded back to back shutouts in Weeks 13 and 14. They finished as the ninth ranked fantasy unit at the end of 2014, and I expect them to improve upon that this year. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league, led by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald, and should be able to get plenty of pressure on QBs this season. They do have the explosive Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers on their schedule this year, but I expect this unit to finish, at worst, in the top 10 fantasy D/ST, and likely finish as a top five unit.
Bust: Todd Gurley, RB
I don't understand all the hype that Gurley is getting. His career at Georgia was productive, there's no denying that, but he's coming off an ACL injury, is likely to miss training camp and/or preseason reps, and isn't guaranteed the starting RB job anyways. While I think Gurley could have a productive career long term, I think people are simply writing off Tre Mason, as though Mason did nothing last year. Mason proved to be the lone bright spot for the Rams last year once he wrestled the starting job away from Zac Stacy. Mason averaged 4.3 yards per carry and finished with five total TDs. He had two 100+ yard games, all while facing a gauntlet of tough run defenses (Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, Washington, Denver). The Rams used three of their first five draft picks on offensive line, which should help to shore up a unit that was rather poor last season. Gurley is currently ranked, and being drafted, ahead of Mason, which I think is absurd. Mason is established in this offense and has proved that he can play in this league. I'd rather have him than an unproven, coming-off-an-ACL rookie.
Sleeper: Brian Quick, WR
Quick was having a reasonably productive year, by St. Louis Ram standards, until he went down with a season ending injury in Week 8 last year. He's healed up, and enters 2015 as the Rams' unquestioned number one WR. Even though the Rams are a run first team, number one WRs on any team is always an attractive fantasy asset, purely because of the targets he will get. Quick also gets to catch footballs from Nick Foles this season, which is certainly an upgrade from Austin Davis. Playing in the NFC West and having to face Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman twice a year certainly is a bit of a hindrance, but I think Quick could be a nice bye week fill in or even a FLEX play in PPR leagues. You'll be able to get Quick late, or even off of waivers if he goes undrafted, so there's hardly any risk in taking a chance on him.
Bottom Line
As has been the case in recent years, there's not too much to get excited about from a fantasy perspective with the Rams. They'll likely rely on ball control and their solid defense to win games, and will try to avoid high scoring shootouts. Nick Foles should be considered an upgrade at QB, though expectations should be tempered, as Foles' numbers will likely see a dip now that he is away from Philly's up-tempo system. Keep an eye on the RB situation as we get closer to the start of the season. If Gurley suffers a setback or re-injures his ACL, Mason would get a boost in value.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Russell Wilson, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, D/ST
Lynch continues to prove the doubters, myself included, wrong, as he keeps racking up the carries, taking the hits, but producing on this team. Lynch finished as the third best fantasy RB last year, putting up 1306 rushing yards and 17 total TDs. He was the workhorse for this entire offense week in and week out as he received 20+ carries eight times last year. There doesn't seem to be any plans to cut back on his carries, so he should be productive once again, so long as his body can hold up to the volume of punishment it takes each year. While it is true that newly acquired tight end Jimmy Graham might take some of his short yardage TDs, I still think Lynch will see enough volume to make him a top 10 RB once again.
Wilson is my dark horse pick for overall fantasy MVP this season. He finished third among QBs in fantasy scoring last year, mostly due to his QB-leading 849 rushing yards (210 more rushing yards than second place rushing QB Colin Kaepernick). His 20 passing TDs won't blow anyone away, but he was careful with the football and only threw seven interceptions. Andrew Luck had seven interceptions by Week 7 last year. The addition of a huge target like Graham should help him improve on his passing yardage and TD totals from previous years. The only negative with Wilson is that he can be wildly inconsistent at times. Twice last year, he had 10 point performances sandwiched in between 28+ performances. I think the addition of Graham and another year of experience (he's still only in his 4th year in the league) will make Wilson a top three QB, and possible overall point leader by the end of the season.
While being traded from New Orleans to Seattle does take Graham out of a passing friendly offense, it does not change the fact that he is a 6'7", 265 pound matchup nightmare. He can box defenders out and turn a poorly thrown ball into a TD grab. While his yardage and targets might see a slight drop, I expect his double digit TDs to remain, even in Seattle. He'll be Wilson's favorite target in the red zone, and should be helped out with defenses having to worry about Lynch as well. Barring the Seahawks completely ignoring Graham in the red zone, I expect another top three TE season from Graham.
The Seahawks' D/ST is probably the safest D/ST unit you can take, and will likely be the first one taken in most drafts. This unit actually struggled to start 2014, including an unfathomable -1 performance in San Diego in Week 2, but turned it around halfway through the season. From Week 8 to the end of the season, they only had two single digit fantasy point games, and completely shut down offenses. They also play in a division that is lacking offensive firepower. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner all return, while Kam Chancellor is in the midst of a holdout. Once Chancellor settles and returns to the field, the Legion of Boom and this D/ST unit should terrorize opposing teams and fantasy owners once again in 2015.
Bust: None
I expect all four of the studs listed above to either match or outperform their draft position.
Sleeper: Tyler Lockett, WR
Lockett, a rookie out of Kansas State, is similar to guys like Brandin Cooks and Percy Harvin in that he is quicker than he is fast, and can get early separation off the line of scrimmage, despite his diminutive size (5'11", 182 lbs.). I would advise Lockett only for those of you in PPR leagues, as he likely won't stretch the field or put up big yardage totals, but can be a nice target for Wilson on quick hitting passes in hopes that Lockett can rack up big yards after the catch. He was Kansas State's most explosive weapon last year, including being utilized as a punt and kick returner. While the run oriented Seahawk offense will likely pull down his numbers, I expect Lockett to make a name for himself this year. Keep an eye on Lockett to see how far he climbs in the depth chart by the end of training camp.
Bottom Line
This team was one bad decision away from winning another Super Bowl title, and their 2015 squad is looking stacked once again. While the defense gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, I think that Seattle's offense will be one to fear this season. Acquiring Jimmy Graham gives this team the aerial threat that they have been trying to find since drafting Russell Wilson, while teams still have to worry about Lynch running it down their throats. Expect this Seahawk team to be one of the best in the NFL, and a good source of fantasy points on both sides of the ball.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: None
Any success that the Cardinals hope to have on offense revolves around the health of Carson Palmer. When Palmer was healthy last year, this offense was actually fairly explosive, but turned absolutely dreadful once Palmer went down. Michael Floyd might be considered a stud if Palmer's health was guaranteed.
Bust: Andre Ellington, RB
Ellington was actually my sleeper last year because it wouldn't cost you that much and I knew he would put up great PPR numbers. He was the Cardinals' lead back and hauled in 46 passes in 12 games before breaking down and succumbing to injuries to end the year. Unlike last year, Ellington will cost you about a fourth or fifth round pick, which is too high for this kind of player. He is undersized and likely won't get a lot, if any, goal line looks down in the red zone. In 12 games last year, he failed to top the 100 yard mark despite receiving 15+ carries nine times. That's partly his fault, but also the fault of their awful offensive line. They spent their first round pick on offensive tackle DJ Humphries, but it will take more than that to make this line effective. Guys like CJ Spiller and Shane Vereen are going later than Ellington, despite playing the same pass catching role and putting up similar numbers. The receptions could be there, but there won't be much else.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
As I mentioned above, this offense can thrive if Palmer stays healthy. Palmer only played in five complete games last season, but he went over 300 yards twice and had at least two TDs in every complete game he played. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are still a good WR duo on the outside, and Ellington has proven to be a capable pass catcher. They even got Palmer's old teammate from Cincinnati, Jermaine Gresham, to come be their tight end. Head coach Bruce Arians has always had a downfield offense, and Palmer has never been one to shy away from launching the ball deep. The pieces are there for Palmer to be successful as long as he can stay on the field. I would certainly have another QB on my roster if Palmer were to go down, but he is a legitimate fantasy starter while healthy. If you take a suspended Tom Brady, having Palmer healthy at the start of the season would be a great QB while Brady serves his suspension.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals have been looking for a consistent answer at QB since Kurt Warner left, and Palmer is the closest thing they have. The skill position players can be successful if he is at QB, but will wind up on a lot of waiver wires if he were to go down. Their defense had its moments last year, but also turned in four performances of zero points or less. While the Cards' D/ST should be viewed as a good matchup play, just keep in mind that they have to face the Vikings, Eagles, and Packers in Weeks 14, 15, and 16, respectively. I doubt many fantasy football playoff teams will be starting this D/ST in the playoffs this season.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Anquan Boldin
Boldin, one of the few 49ers that actually returns to the team this season, continues to simply be a steady source of yards and receptions. Despite a down year from QB Colin Kaepernick and the offense as a whole, Boldin still managed to go over 1,000 yards and finished as the 22nd ranked WR for fantasy. PPR owners should also be excited about Boldin as he finished with the 15th most receptions among WRs, ahead of flashier guys like TY Hilton and Kelvin Benjamin. Boldin won't look like a sexy pick up on draft day, but his numbers will speak for themselves by the end of the year. Expect another WR2/FLEX season from Boldin.
Bust: Carlos Hyde, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because everyone did so terrible last season, but I'll go with Hyde because he is getting a lot of hype with Frank Gore now in Indianapolis. The offensive line, once a strength of this team, lost Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis this offseason. Hyde has very little game experience, and was less than impressive with his touches last season. He'll start the year as the default number one RB, but spending a third round pick on him is ridiculous. No one knows what this offense will look like under new head coach Jim Tomsula, and I'm not convinced that the Niners don't go with a committee at RB with Hyde and rookie Mike Davis. The opportunity is obviously there for Hyde, but the price is way too steep for an unproven back with an unproven coach on a team with question marks all over the field.
Sleeper: Colin Kaepernick, QB
After back to back years in 2012-13 of being a fantasy darling, Kaepernick took a step back in 2014. He finished with two less passing TDs than in 2013, two more interceptions than in 2013, and three less rushing TDs than in 2013. The good news is that even in the midst of a terrible season, not everything was bad. Kaepernick still managed to set career highs in passing yards and rushing yards, while playing in all 16 games. While I don't think he becomes a top five QB, I think that it is not out of the question for him to regain top 12 or even 10 status. The Niners picked up WR Torrey Smith and RB Reggie Bush in the offseason to help in the passing game, while Boldin and TE Vernon Davis return to the Niners. Kaepernick's speed is still there and his passing has slowly, but surely improved throughout his career. He's currently ranked in the 15-18 area, and I have no doubt that he will outperform that ranking easily. You'll be able to draft him as a backup, and he might turn into your starter.
Bottom Line
Who knows? This team had so much movement in the offseason, I'm not sure if anyone knows how to judge this team from a real life or fantasy perspective. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished in last place. Boldin is the only Niner that I would feel safe about having, though I think Kaepernick and Reggie Bush (in PPR leagues) could provide some value during the season.
Matty O
Monday, August 3, 2015
Saturday, August 1, 2015
2015 Fantasy Draft Strategy
August has begun, training camps are open, and it's time to start talking fantasy football. No matter what game you play, whether it's fantasy football, chess, or poker, it's always a good idea to have a good strategy in mind before the game begins. Since your fantasy draft marks the start of your fantasy football season, as well as providing the building blocks for a successful team, it is important to know what you're doing and how to execute your draft strategy. Like in any game, adjustments may need to be made on the fly, like if someone takes a player you really needed/wanted, but a general outline of how to attack is always good to have. Below, I will cover some general things to keep in mind as you approach your draft, as well as a position by position breakdown of how I go about drafting certain players.
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? A points per reception (PPR) league? Do you have to draft individual defensive players? Do you have to select two QBs? Depending on what your league type is, will effect how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. Running backs like Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell, and Shane Vereen all get a boost in PPR leagues because of their inflated reception numbers (102, 83, and 52 receptions, respectively). Two QB leagues place a premium on QBs since there are only 32 starters in any given week, and less than half of those QBs that turn out to be fantasy threats. Be aware of the players that have increased value because of your league rules, and which big names can be passed over because they do not offer the statistical numbers that other, lesser known players do.
Same Team Stacking
Normally, if I have a team's starting QB, I won't have the team's starting RB. A QB and WR combo is less risky, but can still burn you. You can only score so many points in an NFL game, so when you stack players that are on the same team, you sometimes take production away from one of your own players. For instance, if you stack your team with Packers and wind up with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy, every time Lacy scores a rushing TD, that is a scoring opportunity that your own player just took away from Rodgers and Nelson. Conversely, if Rodgers hooks up with Randall Cobb for a passing TD, then that is potential points taken away from Nelson and Lacy. I'm not saying I'm completely against it, but there is certainly risk involved. If that team happens to have a bad week, or is playing in 30 mph winds, then all of your positions with players from that team will under perform that week. Of course, if they do well collectively, then you could be set at all those positions as well. With that in mind, there are only a handful of teams that I would recommend stacking QB, RB, WR, and/or TE. Teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Broncos are probably the safest ones to stack with as they all have established QBs and playmakers at multiple positions.
Bye Week Stacking
Bye week stacking is essentially drafting your starters so that all of them have the same bye week. You're basically forfeiting that bye week, but also setting yourself up so that you are at full strength for the rest of the bye weeks. I've seen mixed results with this strategy, but I personally advise against it. By the time we get to the bye week part of the year, there are sure to be injuries, poor performances, and defenses that come out of nowhere that present tough matchups for your players. There's also no guarantee that your opponent won't be at full strength when you face him/her. Sure, they might have Andrew Luck on a bye, but if they can get Eli Manning off waivers who is facing the Cowboys, is there really going to be any drop off? Sometimes those bye weeks can sting you, but normally you can either find a decent replacement, or find a favorable matchup to exploit.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starter in case he gets injured/suspended. While it takes up a roster spot, and you might go a whole year without using him, the risk of not having him and therefore not having a viable replacement for your starter, is too great. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that not every player with an injury history needs to be handcuffed. You still have to expect your handcuff to perform if the starter goes down, otherwise it is pointless to use up a roster spot. For instance, it would make sense to handcuff a Cowboy or Raven RB because their offensive lines are rock solid and the handcuff would likely experience some sort of success. On the other hand, handcuffing a Raider or Falcon RB might not be the best idea because their lines are weaker and less likely to produce open lanes for that player. Research some of the top players and their injury history (I'll include some in my division by division breakdowns) and know which ones need to be covered and handcuffed.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules matched up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. I feel like leagues and teams can get ruined a bit if you have a draft in early/mid-August, only to have a team's starting RB1 get injured in a meaningless preseason game. There are things the commissioner can do to make this easier, like giving the owner first dibs on the injured player's backup, but it is easier if all teams head into a draft knowing what that player's situation is. Sometimes position battles and suspension rulings also go right down to the wire, and it is nice as an owner in a league to have the clearest picture for every player heading into your draft. Again, definitely not easy to accomplish, particularly with Labor Day Weekend right before the start of the NFL season, but just something for commissioners to keep in mind.
Position By Position Strategy
Quarterback
QB seems to be the most clear position for fantasy this year. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck have clearly distinguished themselves as the two best fantasy options, with guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson in the next tier. Barring an injunction, even the Tom Brady situation is clear, as we know he'll miss the first four games of the Patriots' season and will, without a doubt, retake his starting job in Week 6, regardless of how well Jimmy Garoppolo does. There are some lower ranked guys that I think could emerge (Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater), but I feel like everyone is ranked fairly reasonably for QBs.
With that in mind, I would suggest either snagging Luck or Rodgers early, or waiting it out to draft a QB. Most leagues only require one QB to start, and most leagues have 12 or less owners. There are at least that many decent QBs in the NFL, and once you get past the Brees and Manning tier, you're basically splitting hairs about who to take because the difference between each player is so small. You could also choose to draft two mediocre QBs and simply plug and play them into matchups that favor that QB. The intriguing question in all leagues at the QB position will be how far Brady will fall if the four game suspension holds up. Despite a rough start to the year, including three single digit fantasy performances in his first four games, Brady managed to finish eighth in fantasy scoring at the end of the year. I don't think it is out of the question to snag Brady, and draft an Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer type-QB late, to hold down the fort while Brady is suspended.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 QBs That Will Finish Top 10: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer
Running Back
Year after year, RB becomes harder to predict from a fantasy perspective. This year, it is absolutely ludicrous. You have backs that are suspended (Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount), backs that are coming back from injury/suspension (Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson), backs that switched to new teams (DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore), backs that have opportunity because of those switches (Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Carlos Hyde), and rookie backs getting a lot of hype (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon). Hopefully things become clearer by the time training camps end, but it looks like drafting solid RBs will once again be a shot in the dark.
If you have a pick at the top of the first round, it is expected and recommended that you take a RB. While there are certainly a lot of questions throughout the draft with RBs, there are guys like Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy that I would consider "safe." Also, for those of you in PPR leagues, keep in mind that valuable RB2s and FLEX RBs can be found later in drafts because guys like Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles don't put up solid rushing yard numbers, but catch plenty of balls to rack up points for their receptions. I would say that once you get your starters established (not counting DEF and K), I would start to stockpile RBs. Even if they aren't the starter or their situation looks sort of bleak, you might as well take a chance on them, as players like Justin Forsett and CJ Anderson have come out of nowhere to take advantage of opportunities presented to them throughout the season. You're really just looking for a lottery ticket at that point, so you might as well draft as many as you can. Don't forget to handcuff!
Player(s) Outside Top 20 RBs That Will Finish Top 20: Tre Mason, TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Joseph Randle
Wide Receiver
The top of this WR fantasy class should have owners salivating. Antonio Brown, you could argue, could go number one in PPR leagues. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant got paid and are on elite offenses. Julio Jones is in a contract year, as is Alshon Jeffery, who no longer has to compete with Brandon Marshall for catches. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb get to play with Aaron Rodgers, and not even Eli Manning could mess up a monster second half of last year for Odell Beckham Jr. AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, and Calvin Johnson are looking to bounce back from injury plagued 2014s. Sophomore WRs Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews are looking to improve on their rookie years, while Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman are looking to make impacts in theirs.
For PPR leagues, or leagues that require three WRs instead of two WRs and a FLEX, it is important to get elite WRs. While the points that WRs put up may be more volatile from week to week, they are also more likely to reach the 30 and 40 point marks. Having a guy like Antonio Brown who consistently gets double digit targets week in and week out, gives you a substantial advantage over the other owners in your league. Just like with RBs, also keep in mind that there are WRs that specialize in racking up receptions, but not having huge yardage totals. Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are two guys that finished under 1,000 yards, but had 92 and 84 receptions, respectively. Most sites rank based on standard leagues, so keep that in mind if you draft on ESPN.com or NFL.com. You might have to dig deep to find the reception machines that you want.
WR is usually the easiest position to find quality players late in drafts. While some teams are moving more towards a two back committee at RB, most teams have at least two, if not three, attractive WR options. This gives owners a large pool to choose from if you miss out on the elite crop of WR talent. It has become even easier to find talent late in recent years, as WRs seem to be more NFL ready and are getting more opportunities as rookies. Rookies can usually be snagged later in drafts because they come with the "unproven" tag, but none of them will lack the "talent" tag.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 WRs That Will Finish Top 30: Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, Breshad Perriman
Tight End
Tight end, like QB, has fairly clear tiers of where different players belong. Unlike QB, however, which has multiple tiers, TE has the elite guys, then everyone else. Normally, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the only two in the top tier, but I'll include Greg Olsen this year as well. Olsen, one of my better Sleeper calls last year, had a monster 2014 as he finished with the third most receptions among TEs, the fourth most targets among TEs, and was one of only two TEs (Gronk being the other), that eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. With Antonio Gates being suspended to start the year, that leaves everyone else after Olsen in a mix of either unproven players, or those with up-in-the-air circumstances. For example, Julius Thomas was a scoring machine while he was with the Broncos and Peyton Manning, but now must transition to a far less explosive offense with the Jags and Blake Bortles. My advice stays the same as it has been for this position; either snag one of the top three or wait to get your TE. The top three or four TEs usually separate themselves from the pack, while the rest don't have a significant difference between their overall numbers over a 16 game season. There was also a lot of TE movement this offseason, so I expect some lower drafted or undrafted guys to prove very valuable to fantasy teams this year.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 TEs That Will Finish Top 10: Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Maxx Williams
Defense/Special Teams
D/ST is, by far, the hardest position to predict on a year to year basis. Matchups, lucky bounces, and total D/ST TDs are the most significant factors in a D/ST unit's score. D/ST also, in my opinion, has the biggest gap between fantasy and real life quality. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles finished second in D/ST scoring last season, trailing only the Buffalo Bills. Their fantasy score, however, was inflated due to their impossible-to-repeat 11 TDs. In real life, however, they finished 28th in total yards allowed and 22nd in points per game allowed. This is what makes D/ST so hard to predict because if you have a ball-hawking and TD scoring defense, they can still give up a lot of yards and points, but be valuable in fantasy. With that in mind, I prefer waiting on defense simply because it is so hard to predict. More often than not, a defense viewed as sub-par will end up emerging (see: Buffalo Bills last year). If I had to list a top tier of defenses, I would say that it would include Seattle, Houston, St. Louis, Buffalo, and the New York Jets.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 D/STs That Will Finish Top 10: Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers
Kicker
Normally, I would just say to get one in the last round and be done with it, but I would change that up this year due to the new extra point rule and possibly draft my kicker sooner than the last round. The new rule pushes extra points back to the 15 yard line, while two point conversions stay at the two yard line. I would encourage earlier drafting of kickers, not because of horrible extra point misses (the change in yardage isn't too terrible for most NFL kickers), but rather because of the decreased opportunities. I think there will be certain teams, particularly if their kicker struggles early in the year, that will just decide to go for two from the two yard line most of the time. I think the Eagles will be one of those teams as Chip Kelly has loved going for two, going all the way back to his Oregon days (interesting to note that the Eagles' proposal for this rule change had extra points from the 15 yard line, but two point conversions from the one). While the Eagles are an explosive offense, their kicker might not get a lot of opportunities in any given game, because they just keep going for two.
Also, even though I mentioned that the change in yardage isn't that big of a deal for NFL kickers, it will be if there is bad weather, particularly high winds. Therefore, grabbing a kicker that plays his home games indoors will be of the utmost importance. As we get closer to the fantasy playoffs, it will be even more important to see where your kicker will be playing in Weeks 14, 15, and 16. Chicago and Green Bay are not places that you want to see. Keep in mind that the AFC South has two teams that play indoors while the other two are in Tennessee and Jacksonville, and the NFC South also has two teams that play indoors while the other two play in Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 Ks That Will Finish Top 10: Randy Bullock, Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein
Division by division breakdowns coming in the following weeks!
Matty O
Know Your League Rules
Is your league a standard one? A points per reception (PPR) league? Do you have to draft individual defensive players? Do you have to select two QBs? Depending on what your league type is, will effect how you draft and the importance placed on certain players. Running backs like Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell, and Shane Vereen all get a boost in PPR leagues because of their inflated reception numbers (102, 83, and 52 receptions, respectively). Two QB leagues place a premium on QBs since there are only 32 starters in any given week, and less than half of those QBs that turn out to be fantasy threats. Be aware of the players that have increased value because of your league rules, and which big names can be passed over because they do not offer the statistical numbers that other, lesser known players do.
Same Team Stacking
Normally, if I have a team's starting QB, I won't have the team's starting RB. A QB and WR combo is less risky, but can still burn you. You can only score so many points in an NFL game, so when you stack players that are on the same team, you sometimes take production away from one of your own players. For instance, if you stack your team with Packers and wind up with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Eddie Lacy, every time Lacy scores a rushing TD, that is a scoring opportunity that your own player just took away from Rodgers and Nelson. Conversely, if Rodgers hooks up with Randall Cobb for a passing TD, then that is potential points taken away from Nelson and Lacy. I'm not saying I'm completely against it, but there is certainly risk involved. If that team happens to have a bad week, or is playing in 30 mph winds, then all of your positions with players from that team will under perform that week. Of course, if they do well collectively, then you could be set at all those positions as well. With that in mind, there are only a handful of teams that I would recommend stacking QB, RB, WR, and/or TE. Teams like the Packers, Steelers, and Broncos are probably the safest ones to stack with as they all have established QBs and playmakers at multiple positions.
Bye Week Stacking
Bye week stacking is essentially drafting your starters so that all of them have the same bye week. You're basically forfeiting that bye week, but also setting yourself up so that you are at full strength for the rest of the bye weeks. I've seen mixed results with this strategy, but I personally advise against it. By the time we get to the bye week part of the year, there are sure to be injuries, poor performances, and defenses that come out of nowhere that present tough matchups for your players. There's also no guarantee that your opponent won't be at full strength when you face him/her. Sure, they might have Andrew Luck on a bye, but if they can get Eli Manning off waivers who is facing the Cowboys, is there really going to be any drop off? Sometimes those bye weeks can sting you, but normally you can either find a decent replacement, or find a favorable matchup to exploit.
Handcuff
Handcuffing in fantasy football refers to backing up your starter in case he gets injured/suspended. While it takes up a roster spot, and you might go a whole year without using him, the risk of not having him and therefore not having a viable replacement for your starter, is too great. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that not every player with an injury history needs to be handcuffed. You still have to expect your handcuff to perform if the starter goes down, otherwise it is pointless to use up a roster spot. For instance, it would make sense to handcuff a Cowboy or Raven RB because their offensive lines are rock solid and the handcuff would likely experience some sort of success. On the other hand, handcuffing a Raider or Falcon RB might not be the best idea because their lines are weaker and less likely to produce open lanes for that player. Research some of the top players and their injury history (I'll include some in my division by division breakdowns) and know which ones need to be covered and handcuffed.
Draft Date
Obviously getting 10 or 12 people to have all their schedules matched up to have a draft is a difficult thing, but I like having drafts as close to the start of the season as possible. I feel like leagues and teams can get ruined a bit if you have a draft in early/mid-August, only to have a team's starting RB1 get injured in a meaningless preseason game. There are things the commissioner can do to make this easier, like giving the owner first dibs on the injured player's backup, but it is easier if all teams head into a draft knowing what that player's situation is. Sometimes position battles and suspension rulings also go right down to the wire, and it is nice as an owner in a league to have the clearest picture for every player heading into your draft. Again, definitely not easy to accomplish, particularly with Labor Day Weekend right before the start of the NFL season, but just something for commissioners to keep in mind.
Position By Position Strategy
Quarterback
QB seems to be the most clear position for fantasy this year. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck have clearly distinguished themselves as the two best fantasy options, with guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson in the next tier. Barring an injunction, even the Tom Brady situation is clear, as we know he'll miss the first four games of the Patriots' season and will, without a doubt, retake his starting job in Week 6, regardless of how well Jimmy Garoppolo does. There are some lower ranked guys that I think could emerge (Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater), but I feel like everyone is ranked fairly reasonably for QBs.
With that in mind, I would suggest either snagging Luck or Rodgers early, or waiting it out to draft a QB. Most leagues only require one QB to start, and most leagues have 12 or less owners. There are at least that many decent QBs in the NFL, and once you get past the Brees and Manning tier, you're basically splitting hairs about who to take because the difference between each player is so small. You could also choose to draft two mediocre QBs and simply plug and play them into matchups that favor that QB. The intriguing question in all leagues at the QB position will be how far Brady will fall if the four game suspension holds up. Despite a rough start to the year, including three single digit fantasy performances in his first four games, Brady managed to finish eighth in fantasy scoring at the end of the year. I don't think it is out of the question to snag Brady, and draft an Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer type-QB late, to hold down the fort while Brady is suspended.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 QBs That Will Finish Top 10: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer
Running Back
Year after year, RB becomes harder to predict from a fantasy perspective. This year, it is absolutely ludicrous. You have backs that are suspended (Le'Veon Bell, LeGarrette Blount), backs that are coming back from injury/suspension (Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson), backs that switched to new teams (DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore), backs that have opportunity because of those switches (Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Carlos Hyde), and rookie backs getting a lot of hype (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon). Hopefully things become clearer by the time training camps end, but it looks like drafting solid RBs will once again be a shot in the dark.
If you have a pick at the top of the first round, it is expected and recommended that you take a RB. While there are certainly a lot of questions throughout the draft with RBs, there are guys like Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy that I would consider "safe." Also, for those of you in PPR leagues, keep in mind that valuable RB2s and FLEX RBs can be found later in drafts because guys like Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles don't put up solid rushing yard numbers, but catch plenty of balls to rack up points for their receptions. I would say that once you get your starters established (not counting DEF and K), I would start to stockpile RBs. Even if they aren't the starter or their situation looks sort of bleak, you might as well take a chance on them, as players like Justin Forsett and CJ Anderson have come out of nowhere to take advantage of opportunities presented to them throughout the season. You're really just looking for a lottery ticket at that point, so you might as well draft as many as you can. Don't forget to handcuff!
Player(s) Outside Top 20 RBs That Will Finish Top 20: Tre Mason, TJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Joseph Randle
Wide Receiver
The top of this WR fantasy class should have owners salivating. Antonio Brown, you could argue, could go number one in PPR leagues. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant got paid and are on elite offenses. Julio Jones is in a contract year, as is Alshon Jeffery, who no longer has to compete with Brandon Marshall for catches. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb get to play with Aaron Rodgers, and not even Eli Manning could mess up a monster second half of last year for Odell Beckham Jr. AJ Green, Brandin Cooks, and Calvin Johnson are looking to bounce back from injury plagued 2014s. Sophomore WRs Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews are looking to improve on their rookie years, while Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman are looking to make impacts in theirs.
For PPR leagues, or leagues that require three WRs instead of two WRs and a FLEX, it is important to get elite WRs. While the points that WRs put up may be more volatile from week to week, they are also more likely to reach the 30 and 40 point marks. Having a guy like Antonio Brown who consistently gets double digit targets week in and week out, gives you a substantial advantage over the other owners in your league. Just like with RBs, also keep in mind that there are WRs that specialize in racking up receptions, but not having huge yardage totals. Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry are two guys that finished under 1,000 yards, but had 92 and 84 receptions, respectively. Most sites rank based on standard leagues, so keep that in mind if you draft on ESPN.com or NFL.com. You might have to dig deep to find the reception machines that you want.
WR is usually the easiest position to find quality players late in drafts. While some teams are moving more towards a two back committee at RB, most teams have at least two, if not three, attractive WR options. This gives owners a large pool to choose from if you miss out on the elite crop of WR talent. It has become even easier to find talent late in recent years, as WRs seem to be more NFL ready and are getting more opportunities as rookies. Rookies can usually be snagged later in drafts because they come with the "unproven" tag, but none of them will lack the "talent" tag.
Player(s) Outside Top 30 WRs That Will Finish Top 30: Allen Robinson, Marques Colston, Breshad Perriman
Tight End
Tight end, like QB, has fairly clear tiers of where different players belong. Unlike QB, however, which has multiple tiers, TE has the elite guys, then everyone else. Normally, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are the only two in the top tier, but I'll include Greg Olsen this year as well. Olsen, one of my better Sleeper calls last year, had a monster 2014 as he finished with the third most receptions among TEs, the fourth most targets among TEs, and was one of only two TEs (Gronk being the other), that eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. With Antonio Gates being suspended to start the year, that leaves everyone else after Olsen in a mix of either unproven players, or those with up-in-the-air circumstances. For example, Julius Thomas was a scoring machine while he was with the Broncos and Peyton Manning, but now must transition to a far less explosive offense with the Jags and Blake Bortles. My advice stays the same as it has been for this position; either snag one of the top three or wait to get your TE. The top three or four TEs usually separate themselves from the pack, while the rest don't have a significant difference between their overall numbers over a 16 game season. There was also a lot of TE movement this offseason, so I expect some lower drafted or undrafted guys to prove very valuable to fantasy teams this year.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 TEs That Will Finish Top 10: Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, Maxx Williams
Defense/Special Teams
D/ST is, by far, the hardest position to predict on a year to year basis. Matchups, lucky bounces, and total D/ST TDs are the most significant factors in a D/ST unit's score. D/ST also, in my opinion, has the biggest gap between fantasy and real life quality. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles finished second in D/ST scoring last season, trailing only the Buffalo Bills. Their fantasy score, however, was inflated due to their impossible-to-repeat 11 TDs. In real life, however, they finished 28th in total yards allowed and 22nd in points per game allowed. This is what makes D/ST so hard to predict because if you have a ball-hawking and TD scoring defense, they can still give up a lot of yards and points, but be valuable in fantasy. With that in mind, I prefer waiting on defense simply because it is so hard to predict. More often than not, a defense viewed as sub-par will end up emerging (see: Buffalo Bills last year). If I had to list a top tier of defenses, I would say that it would include Seattle, Houston, St. Louis, Buffalo, and the New York Jets.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 D/STs That Will Finish Top 10: Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers
Kicker
Normally, I would just say to get one in the last round and be done with it, but I would change that up this year due to the new extra point rule and possibly draft my kicker sooner than the last round. The new rule pushes extra points back to the 15 yard line, while two point conversions stay at the two yard line. I would encourage earlier drafting of kickers, not because of horrible extra point misses (the change in yardage isn't too terrible for most NFL kickers), but rather because of the decreased opportunities. I think there will be certain teams, particularly if their kicker struggles early in the year, that will just decide to go for two from the two yard line most of the time. I think the Eagles will be one of those teams as Chip Kelly has loved going for two, going all the way back to his Oregon days (interesting to note that the Eagles' proposal for this rule change had extra points from the 15 yard line, but two point conversions from the one). While the Eagles are an explosive offense, their kicker might not get a lot of opportunities in any given game, because they just keep going for two.
Also, even though I mentioned that the change in yardage isn't that big of a deal for NFL kickers, it will be if there is bad weather, particularly high winds. Therefore, grabbing a kicker that plays his home games indoors will be of the utmost importance. As we get closer to the fantasy playoffs, it will be even more important to see where your kicker will be playing in Weeks 14, 15, and 16. Chicago and Green Bay are not places that you want to see. Keep in mind that the AFC South has two teams that play indoors while the other two are in Tennessee and Jacksonville, and the NFC South also has two teams that play indoors while the other two play in Carolina and Tampa Bay.
Player(s) Outside Top 10 Ks That Will Finish Top 10: Randy Bullock, Blair Walsh, Greg Zuerlein
Division by division breakdowns coming in the following weeks!
Matty O
Monday, July 6, 2015
I Found Sports Stuff
I'm getting ready to move, which inevitably forces me to go through boxes that I haven't seen in forever and explore places that I wasn't sure existed. While doing so, I found some sports cards, newspapers, Sports Illustrated, and various photos that I'd like to share with y'all. Since Blogger doesn't really have any kind of organized album system, I set up a Flickr account and uploaded some photos of stuff I found there. Check them out and hopefully you'll get some feelings of nostalgia along the way.
Link: https://www.flickr.com/photos/134608573@N02/with/19450172686/
Matty O
Link: https://www.flickr.com/photos/134608573@N02/with/19450172686/
Matty O
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
ESPYS 2015
Best Male Athlete
Nominees: Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt
Winner: Stephen Curry
I would've picked Watt over A-Rod between the two football players, but I think this category comes down to a debate between the two NBA players. The argument for James is the gaudy overall statistics that he put up, including leading both teams in the NBA Finals in points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game. He was also carrying a bruised and disjointed group of supporting players for most of the season, while carrying the expectations of an entire city along with him. Curry, on the other hand, was simply an offensive juggernaut this year, leading the Warriors to a NBA-best 67 wins. He won the regular season MVP, and was likely the overall playoff MVP, even though the NBA only awards the MVP of the NBA Finals. Opponents were falling all over themselves to try and stop his deadly shooting and, even with hands in his face, he was still able to nail some huge shots. Add in the NBA Finals win, and I think Curry deserves this award.
Best Female Athelte
Nominees: Ronda Rousey, Breanna Stewart, Lindsey Vonn, Serena Williams
Winner: Serena Williams
Williams has absolutely dominated women's tennis in the past year, winning the US Open, Australian Open, and French Open against three different finals opponents. She has been ranked number one in the world for 200+ weeks and is the undisputed icon of women's tennis. Ronda Rousey could make an argument to win this award, although I thought she had a better body of work last year. She may have become more of a public figure, but based on on-court/in-ring performance, Williams was the better of the two.
Best Championship Performance
Nominees: Madison Bumgarner, Lauren Haeger, LeBron James, American Pharoah
Winner: Madison Bumgarner
This is probably the closest category at these ESPYS and I wouldn't be surprised if American Pharoah won, simply because of the Triple Crown factor. I think some people may have forgotten the significance and difficulty of what Bumgarner did because it took place back in October, so let me refresh your memory. As the Giants' ace in Game 1, he pitched seven innings of three hit, one run ball on the road to give the Giants a 1-0 lead in the series. Then, with the series tied at 2-2, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit shutout, to give the Giants a 3-2 series lead with the final two games played in Kansas City. After a KC blowout in Game 6, Bumgarner was called in on two days rest to act as a reliever in the fifth inning with the Giants holding a 3-2 lead in the game. Neither team scored the rest of the way as Bumgarner notched a five innning, two hit save to clinch the World Series for the Giants. It was clutch, it was skillful, it was the best championship performance.
Best Breakthrough Athlete
Nominees: Odell Beckham Jr., Mo'ne Davis, Cardale Jones, Jordan Spieth
Winner: Odell Beckham Jr.
Another difficult category to choose from, but I have to go with Beckham. I'll admit that I am biased here because the NFL is my favorite sports league, and I pay close attention to the Giants because they are in the same division as my favorite team (Dallas Cowboys). While his catch against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football is what really got the hype going, that was only the beginning of the story. He broke multiple rookie and non-rookie NFL receiving records, he was voted to the Pro Bowl, was the offensive rookie of the year, is on the cover of this year's Madden, and did all that even though he missed the first four games of the season last year. I suspect we'll be hearing Beckham's name a lot this coming season, along with the three other very worthy nominees in this category.
Best Upset
Nominees: Georgia State over Baylor, Kansas City Royals win AL Pennant, Mississippi over Alabama
Winner: Georgia State over Baylor
Not the strongest group of nominees this year, but the Georgia State game was awesome to watch. GSU was a semi-popular upset pick to begin with because of NBA prospect RJ Hunter and Louisville transfer Kevin Ware. That said, Baylor was a three seed for a reason and led by 12 with two and a half minutes left to play. GSU had played them tough, but it looked like this was a Cinderella story that would not happen. Then, in the final minutes, Hunter came alive and scored 12 points in the final 2:39, including the game winning three pointer with three seconds left, to give the 14th seeded Panthers the win. It was everything you could want in a classic NCAA Tournament game...unless you're a Baylor Bears fan.
Best Game
Nominees: A's vs Royals (AL Wild Card), Spurs vs Clippers Game 7 (Western Conference Quarterfinals), Seahawks vs Patriots (Super Bowl)
Winner: Seahawks vs Patriots
Could it have been anything else? With all due respect to the other four teams nominated, this game wasn't just one of the best this year, but one of the best of all time. If this game doesn't win this category, then I'm boycotting the ESPYS for the rest of eternity. I would, however, like to add in a write in nominee for one of my favorite games that didn't make ESPN's nominations. I thought the Elite Eight game between Kentucky and Notre Dame was outstanding. It was back and forth action with Kentucky's undefeated season on the line. Kentucky's Andrew Harrison had to make two clutch free throws with six seconds left to seal the victory in my personal favorite game from the tournament.
Best Comeback Athlete
Nominees: Rob Gronkowski, Alex Rodriguez, Derrick Rose, Lindsey Vonn
Winner: The Gronk
After a nasty ACL and MCL injury in 2013, Gronk returned to dominant form in 2014, easily outclassing every other tight end in the NFL. He led all tight ends in receiving yards, and even proved to be a capable blocker, which is something that cannot be said for other elite pass catching tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas). He is a matchup nightmare, and for that reason, is one of the most unstoppable forces in the NFL along with JJ Watt. The comeback from injury is complete, now expect the domination to continue.
Best Coach
Nominees: Geno Auriemma, Bill Belichick, Steve Kerr, Mike Krzyzewski, Urban Meyer
Winner: Urban Meyer
While all five coaches won a championship this year, I think Meyer should win this easily. And that's coming from someone that has disliked Ohio State all my life. Consider that Auriemma has the best women's basketball team year in and year out, Belichick had the Golden Boy and Gronk, Kerr had the Splash Brothers, Coach K had Jahlil Okafor and Justice Winslow, and Meyer had a third string QB. While he turned out to be a stud, it takes great coaching to have a third string QB ready when the two QBs ahead of him had already excelled. Not only that, but he had to conquer the pro style of Nick Saban's Alabama squad, only to get the Heisman Trophy Winner and the faster-than-a-speeding-bullet Oregon team. He was able to make adjustments, put his players in positions to excel, and won the National Championship.
Best Team
Nominees: Chicago Blackhawks, San Francisco Giants, New England Patriots, Golden State Warriors, UConn Women's Basketball, Duke Basketball, Ohio State Football
Winner: Golden State Warriors
As of this writing, they don't have this category posted for some reason. I think it's because the Women's World Cup is still going on and they might want to include the US Women's Team if they win it all. With that in mind, I chose the teams I could remember that won a title, so I apologize if I missed someone important, though I don't think I did. Regardless of if the US wins the World Cup, I'm still going with the Warriors. They got close to the 70 win mark with 67 of them and only lost a ridiculous two games at home all regular season. Curry was the MVP and leader of an attack that averaged 110 points per game. It was a shooting display every night they hit the floor and brought a lot of attention back out west after the Lakers went in the tank. They swept the Pelicans, battled back from a 2-1 series deficit against the Grizzlies, beat the Rockets in five, then came back from another 2-1 series deficit against the Cavs to win the NBA Title.
Don't forget, the ESPYS take place July 15th at 8pm Eastern. Click here to vote for your favorite athletes and teams!
Matty O
Nominees: Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt
Winner: Stephen Curry
I would've picked Watt over A-Rod between the two football players, but I think this category comes down to a debate between the two NBA players. The argument for James is the gaudy overall statistics that he put up, including leading both teams in the NBA Finals in points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game. He was also carrying a bruised and disjointed group of supporting players for most of the season, while carrying the expectations of an entire city along with him. Curry, on the other hand, was simply an offensive juggernaut this year, leading the Warriors to a NBA-best 67 wins. He won the regular season MVP, and was likely the overall playoff MVP, even though the NBA only awards the MVP of the NBA Finals. Opponents were falling all over themselves to try and stop his deadly shooting and, even with hands in his face, he was still able to nail some huge shots. Add in the NBA Finals win, and I think Curry deserves this award.
Best Female Athelte
Nominees: Ronda Rousey, Breanna Stewart, Lindsey Vonn, Serena Williams
Winner: Serena Williams
Williams has absolutely dominated women's tennis in the past year, winning the US Open, Australian Open, and French Open against three different finals opponents. She has been ranked number one in the world for 200+ weeks and is the undisputed icon of women's tennis. Ronda Rousey could make an argument to win this award, although I thought she had a better body of work last year. She may have become more of a public figure, but based on on-court/in-ring performance, Williams was the better of the two.
Best Championship Performance
Nominees: Madison Bumgarner, Lauren Haeger, LeBron James, American Pharoah
Winner: Madison Bumgarner
This is probably the closest category at these ESPYS and I wouldn't be surprised if American Pharoah won, simply because of the Triple Crown factor. I think some people may have forgotten the significance and difficulty of what Bumgarner did because it took place back in October, so let me refresh your memory. As the Giants' ace in Game 1, he pitched seven innings of three hit, one run ball on the road to give the Giants a 1-0 lead in the series. Then, with the series tied at 2-2, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit shutout, to give the Giants a 3-2 series lead with the final two games played in Kansas City. After a KC blowout in Game 6, Bumgarner was called in on two days rest to act as a reliever in the fifth inning with the Giants holding a 3-2 lead in the game. Neither team scored the rest of the way as Bumgarner notched a five innning, two hit save to clinch the World Series for the Giants. It was clutch, it was skillful, it was the best championship performance.
Best Breakthrough Athlete
Nominees: Odell Beckham Jr., Mo'ne Davis, Cardale Jones, Jordan Spieth
Winner: Odell Beckham Jr.
Another difficult category to choose from, but I have to go with Beckham. I'll admit that I am biased here because the NFL is my favorite sports league, and I pay close attention to the Giants because they are in the same division as my favorite team (Dallas Cowboys). While his catch against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football is what really got the hype going, that was only the beginning of the story. He broke multiple rookie and non-rookie NFL receiving records, he was voted to the Pro Bowl, was the offensive rookie of the year, is on the cover of this year's Madden, and did all that even though he missed the first four games of the season last year. I suspect we'll be hearing Beckham's name a lot this coming season, along with the three other very worthy nominees in this category.
Best Upset
Nominees: Georgia State over Baylor, Kansas City Royals win AL Pennant, Mississippi over Alabama
Winner: Georgia State over Baylor
Not the strongest group of nominees this year, but the Georgia State game was awesome to watch. GSU was a semi-popular upset pick to begin with because of NBA prospect RJ Hunter and Louisville transfer Kevin Ware. That said, Baylor was a three seed for a reason and led by 12 with two and a half minutes left to play. GSU had played them tough, but it looked like this was a Cinderella story that would not happen. Then, in the final minutes, Hunter came alive and scored 12 points in the final 2:39, including the game winning three pointer with three seconds left, to give the 14th seeded Panthers the win. It was everything you could want in a classic NCAA Tournament game...unless you're a Baylor Bears fan.
Best Game
Nominees: A's vs Royals (AL Wild Card), Spurs vs Clippers Game 7 (Western Conference Quarterfinals), Seahawks vs Patriots (Super Bowl)
Winner: Seahawks vs Patriots
Could it have been anything else? With all due respect to the other four teams nominated, this game wasn't just one of the best this year, but one of the best of all time. If this game doesn't win this category, then I'm boycotting the ESPYS for the rest of eternity. I would, however, like to add in a write in nominee for one of my favorite games that didn't make ESPN's nominations. I thought the Elite Eight game between Kentucky and Notre Dame was outstanding. It was back and forth action with Kentucky's undefeated season on the line. Kentucky's Andrew Harrison had to make two clutch free throws with six seconds left to seal the victory in my personal favorite game from the tournament.
Best Comeback Athlete
Nominees: Rob Gronkowski, Alex Rodriguez, Derrick Rose, Lindsey Vonn
Winner: The Gronk
After a nasty ACL and MCL injury in 2013, Gronk returned to dominant form in 2014, easily outclassing every other tight end in the NFL. He led all tight ends in receiving yards, and even proved to be a capable blocker, which is something that cannot be said for other elite pass catching tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas). He is a matchup nightmare, and for that reason, is one of the most unstoppable forces in the NFL along with JJ Watt. The comeback from injury is complete, now expect the domination to continue.
Best Coach
Nominees: Geno Auriemma, Bill Belichick, Steve Kerr, Mike Krzyzewski, Urban Meyer
Winner: Urban Meyer
While all five coaches won a championship this year, I think Meyer should win this easily. And that's coming from someone that has disliked Ohio State all my life. Consider that Auriemma has the best women's basketball team year in and year out, Belichick had the Golden Boy and Gronk, Kerr had the Splash Brothers, Coach K had Jahlil Okafor and Justice Winslow, and Meyer had a third string QB. While he turned out to be a stud, it takes great coaching to have a third string QB ready when the two QBs ahead of him had already excelled. Not only that, but he had to conquer the pro style of Nick Saban's Alabama squad, only to get the Heisman Trophy Winner and the faster-than-a-speeding-bullet Oregon team. He was able to make adjustments, put his players in positions to excel, and won the National Championship.
Best Team
Nominees: Chicago Blackhawks, San Francisco Giants, New England Patriots, Golden State Warriors, UConn Women's Basketball, Duke Basketball, Ohio State Football
Winner: Golden State Warriors
As of this writing, they don't have this category posted for some reason. I think it's because the Women's World Cup is still going on and they might want to include the US Women's Team if they win it all. With that in mind, I chose the teams I could remember that won a title, so I apologize if I missed someone important, though I don't think I did. Regardless of if the US wins the World Cup, I'm still going with the Warriors. They got close to the 70 win mark with 67 of them and only lost a ridiculous two games at home all regular season. Curry was the MVP and leader of an attack that averaged 110 points per game. It was a shooting display every night they hit the floor and brought a lot of attention back out west after the Lakers went in the tank. They swept the Pelicans, battled back from a 2-1 series deficit against the Grizzlies, beat the Rockets in five, then came back from another 2-1 series deficit against the Cavs to win the NBA Title.
Don't forget, the ESPYS take place July 15th at 8pm Eastern. Click here to vote for your favorite athletes and teams!
Matty O
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
2015 NHL Wrapup
2015 Stanley Cup Champions: Chicago Blackhawks
As much as the players tried to brush off the question in the post game interviews, this team is certainly worthy of the label of dynasty. Although they haven't been able to win a Cup in back to back seasons, they have been able to capture three in the past six years. The last team to accomplish such a feat was the Blackhawks' long time rival Detroit Red Wings. The Wings won three Cups from 1997-2002, and were the last team to repeat as Cup Champions when they won in 1997 and 1998. It's not an easy feat to say the least, particularly with the yearly changes of personnel each team has to endure. This year, the Hawks made two personnel acquisitions that were important reasons why they won the Cup.
The first acquisition was at the start of the season by picking up free agent Brad Richards. The 35 year old forward had already won a Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy, coincidentally with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was brought in to provide leadership, experience, and a relatively consistent scoring threat to the team. While his regular season point total was the lowest in any season that he played at least 70 games, he was able to rise to the occasion in the playoffs, particularly in the series against Anaheim. He registered seven points against the Ducks, in a series that required plenty of scoring against a loaded Anaheim team. While his production dipped in the Cup Finals, he was able to assist on both goals in the clinching Game 6 against Tampa Bay. Veteran guys who may not put up the numbers, but can just get it done, are always valuable down the stretch.
Speaking of veteran guys, the second acquisition that worked out was trading for forward Antoine Vermette at the trade deadline. It is debatable if they would have even gone after Vermette had Kane not gotten injured, but it all worked out in the end. To reap the rewards of this trade, however, would require a lot of patience. Vermette, a point producer on a terrible Coyotes team, looked like a shell of himself with the Blackhawks, registering a mere three points in 19 regular season games. It got even worse at the start of the playoffs, as he started out as a healthy scratch. Like a stable veteran, however, he simply waited and remained prepared for his turn. While his four goals won't wow anybody, they came at critical times. His second goal came in Game 4 of the Anaheim series with the Ducks threatening to go up 3-1. He scored in double overtime to even up the series. His third and fourth goals came in the Stanley Cup Finals in Games 1 and 5, respectively. Both were in the third period, and both were game winners. Those are three big playoff wins at the cost of giving up a first round pick. Worth it.
The last player I want to point out is Kimmo Timonen. He certainly couldn't be called a key acquisition, as the Hawks could have likely won the Cup without him. It's just always good to see old veterans who play the game right, finally get their chance to raise the Cup. I was glad Toews gave it to him second, as the team urged Timonen to skate around with the Cup. Most 40 year old players with blood clots in their legs would have just called it a career, but he put in the work to get back into playing shape, and I was glad that someone picked him up. It just so happened to be the eventual Stanley Cup Champions.
A Storm Is Coming
Brent Seabrook mentioned in a post game interview after the Hawks won the Cup that the Lightning are a team that could enjoy the Hawks' type of success in the coming years. He is absolutely correct. Apart from the obvious name of superstar Steven Stamkos, other players have emerged from this team to become stars in their own right. The Triplets line of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, and Nikita Kucherov was arguably the best line of any team in the playoffs this year. None of them are over the age of 24. Defenseman Victor Hedman, age 24, might have been the Conn Smythe winner if the Lightning had won the series, and did an excellent job of frustrating and limiting Patrick Kane. Jonathan Drouin, inserted late in the Chicago series to try and produce more offense, was the third overall pick in 2013. Unpolished now, he has the skills to be a star in the future. While Seabrook and the Hawks won't have to worry about the Lightning until the Cup Finals, the entire Eastern Conference needs to be on alert as this Lightning squad have the players to dominate in the years to come.
MVP Curse
The Hart Memorial Trophy is awarded to the MVP of the NHL each year. If your goal is to win the Stanley Cup, however, you might not want to win it. In fact, no team that had the eventual Hart Trophy winner has even made it to the Cup Finals since 2004 when Martin St. Louis did it with the Lightning. The three candidates this year are Carey Price (Montreal), Alexander Ovechkin (Washington), and John Tavares (Islanders); all of whom were on teams that didn't even reach their Conference Finals. This emphasizes the team aspect of hockey, and how great chemistry and depth will beat a superstar with out-of-place players around him any day of the week.
Canadian Drought Continues
Five Canadian teams made the playoffs this year, and while two of the matchups in the first round were all Canadian affairs, there was still a good shot for one of them to make the Cup Finals. Winnipeg got the harshest draw as they had to face the top seeded Ducks. They may have had the best environment in the playoffs for the two games that they hosted, but they were too young of a team and got swept. The Calgary-Vancouver series was easily the feistiest series with plenty of hits and after the whistle dust ups. I thought that series took a lot out of both teams as the also-young Calgary Flames were disposed of in five games by the Ducks. The Montreal-Ottawa series provided the most hope, regardless of who won. While Ottawa may have been the "seventh" seed, there were a lot of people that thought Ottawa would win the series, and for good reason.
Goalie Andrew Hammond came out of nowhere and dominated down the stretch, finishing the regular season with a 20-1-2 record and a 1.79 goals against average. Rookie Mark Stone started playing like a rookie of the year and the Sens surged down the stretch to clinch a wild card spot. Montreal, meanwhile, countered with Hart Trophy candidate Carey Price in net, PK Subban on defense, and an overall solid group of lines one through four. The Habs won the series, as it was too much, too soon for this young Sens squad. The next series saw the Habs get shelled in Games 2 and 6, and were ousted in six games in relatively easy fashion to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even though the Lightning would go on to be the Stanley Cup runner up, I was expecting more fight from Montreal.
A Canadian team hasn't won a Cup since the Canadiens did it in 1993, and have only sent five teams to the Finals in that same time period. The three Olympic gold medals for Team Canada in that same time period might have helped to ease the pain, but I'm sure Canadians are getting restless about their NHL squads. I think it will be sooner rather than later as all five Canadian teams that made it this year will still be good next year, along with a Toronto team that I think could surprise some people with new head coach Mike Babcock.
Changing Of The Guard?
Boston, Los Angeles, and San Jose, three playoff mainstays in recent years, missed the playoffs in 2015. Boston couldn't score enough, San Jose couldn't stop enough, and LA seemed to think their spot in the playoffs was reserved, and didn't have to be earned. The Boston Bruins finished with 213 goals for, which was lower than six other teams that did not make the playoffs, despite the Bruins having the most points (96) of any team that missed the playoffs. The San Jose Sharks finished seventh worst in goals against per game, despite facing the 15th most shots against. The LA Kings didn't have any glaring statistical weaknesses, they just seemed to think they could coast into the playoffs. Instead, they dropped five of their last eight games and allowed the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild to sneak in the back door and claim the two wild card spots.
Perhaps this was just an off season for these teams, with a few bad bounces here and there. They should be aware of how quickly things can change, however, and attack their off seasons accordingly. Seven teams that made the playoffs last year did not make it this year, including the division winning Colorado Avalanche, who wound up in last place in their division in 2015. Less than ten years ago, the Stanley Cup Finals matchup was Edmonton and Carolina. In 2015, Edmonton and Carolina have the first and fifth overall picks, respectively, in the upcoming draft. I probably have the most confidence in Boston to bounce back, as they have played at a high level more consistently, but young teams like Calgary, Winnipeg, and Ottawa aren't going anywhere.
Way Too Early Stanley Cup Finals Prediction For 2016: Blackhawks vs Capitals
Matty O
As much as the players tried to brush off the question in the post game interviews, this team is certainly worthy of the label of dynasty. Although they haven't been able to win a Cup in back to back seasons, they have been able to capture three in the past six years. The last team to accomplish such a feat was the Blackhawks' long time rival Detroit Red Wings. The Wings won three Cups from 1997-2002, and were the last team to repeat as Cup Champions when they won in 1997 and 1998. It's not an easy feat to say the least, particularly with the yearly changes of personnel each team has to endure. This year, the Hawks made two personnel acquisitions that were important reasons why they won the Cup.
The first acquisition was at the start of the season by picking up free agent Brad Richards. The 35 year old forward had already won a Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy, coincidentally with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was brought in to provide leadership, experience, and a relatively consistent scoring threat to the team. While his regular season point total was the lowest in any season that he played at least 70 games, he was able to rise to the occasion in the playoffs, particularly in the series against Anaheim. He registered seven points against the Ducks, in a series that required plenty of scoring against a loaded Anaheim team. While his production dipped in the Cup Finals, he was able to assist on both goals in the clinching Game 6 against Tampa Bay. Veteran guys who may not put up the numbers, but can just get it done, are always valuable down the stretch.
Speaking of veteran guys, the second acquisition that worked out was trading for forward Antoine Vermette at the trade deadline. It is debatable if they would have even gone after Vermette had Kane not gotten injured, but it all worked out in the end. To reap the rewards of this trade, however, would require a lot of patience. Vermette, a point producer on a terrible Coyotes team, looked like a shell of himself with the Blackhawks, registering a mere three points in 19 regular season games. It got even worse at the start of the playoffs, as he started out as a healthy scratch. Like a stable veteran, however, he simply waited and remained prepared for his turn. While his four goals won't wow anybody, they came at critical times. His second goal came in Game 4 of the Anaheim series with the Ducks threatening to go up 3-1. He scored in double overtime to even up the series. His third and fourth goals came in the Stanley Cup Finals in Games 1 and 5, respectively. Both were in the third period, and both were game winners. Those are three big playoff wins at the cost of giving up a first round pick. Worth it.
The last player I want to point out is Kimmo Timonen. He certainly couldn't be called a key acquisition, as the Hawks could have likely won the Cup without him. It's just always good to see old veterans who play the game right, finally get their chance to raise the Cup. I was glad Toews gave it to him second, as the team urged Timonen to skate around with the Cup. Most 40 year old players with blood clots in their legs would have just called it a career, but he put in the work to get back into playing shape, and I was glad that someone picked him up. It just so happened to be the eventual Stanley Cup Champions.
A Storm Is Coming
Brent Seabrook mentioned in a post game interview after the Hawks won the Cup that the Lightning are a team that could enjoy the Hawks' type of success in the coming years. He is absolutely correct. Apart from the obvious name of superstar Steven Stamkos, other players have emerged from this team to become stars in their own right. The Triplets line of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, and Nikita Kucherov was arguably the best line of any team in the playoffs this year. None of them are over the age of 24. Defenseman Victor Hedman, age 24, might have been the Conn Smythe winner if the Lightning had won the series, and did an excellent job of frustrating and limiting Patrick Kane. Jonathan Drouin, inserted late in the Chicago series to try and produce more offense, was the third overall pick in 2013. Unpolished now, he has the skills to be a star in the future. While Seabrook and the Hawks won't have to worry about the Lightning until the Cup Finals, the entire Eastern Conference needs to be on alert as this Lightning squad have the players to dominate in the years to come.
MVP Curse
The Hart Memorial Trophy is awarded to the MVP of the NHL each year. If your goal is to win the Stanley Cup, however, you might not want to win it. In fact, no team that had the eventual Hart Trophy winner has even made it to the Cup Finals since 2004 when Martin St. Louis did it with the Lightning. The three candidates this year are Carey Price (Montreal), Alexander Ovechkin (Washington), and John Tavares (Islanders); all of whom were on teams that didn't even reach their Conference Finals. This emphasizes the team aspect of hockey, and how great chemistry and depth will beat a superstar with out-of-place players around him any day of the week.
Canadian Drought Continues
Five Canadian teams made the playoffs this year, and while two of the matchups in the first round were all Canadian affairs, there was still a good shot for one of them to make the Cup Finals. Winnipeg got the harshest draw as they had to face the top seeded Ducks. They may have had the best environment in the playoffs for the two games that they hosted, but they were too young of a team and got swept. The Calgary-Vancouver series was easily the feistiest series with plenty of hits and after the whistle dust ups. I thought that series took a lot out of both teams as the also-young Calgary Flames were disposed of in five games by the Ducks. The Montreal-Ottawa series provided the most hope, regardless of who won. While Ottawa may have been the "seventh" seed, there were a lot of people that thought Ottawa would win the series, and for good reason.
Goalie Andrew Hammond came out of nowhere and dominated down the stretch, finishing the regular season with a 20-1-2 record and a 1.79 goals against average. Rookie Mark Stone started playing like a rookie of the year and the Sens surged down the stretch to clinch a wild card spot. Montreal, meanwhile, countered with Hart Trophy candidate Carey Price in net, PK Subban on defense, and an overall solid group of lines one through four. The Habs won the series, as it was too much, too soon for this young Sens squad. The next series saw the Habs get shelled in Games 2 and 6, and were ousted in six games in relatively easy fashion to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even though the Lightning would go on to be the Stanley Cup runner up, I was expecting more fight from Montreal.
A Canadian team hasn't won a Cup since the Canadiens did it in 1993, and have only sent five teams to the Finals in that same time period. The three Olympic gold medals for Team Canada in that same time period might have helped to ease the pain, but I'm sure Canadians are getting restless about their NHL squads. I think it will be sooner rather than later as all five Canadian teams that made it this year will still be good next year, along with a Toronto team that I think could surprise some people with new head coach Mike Babcock.
Changing Of The Guard?
Boston, Los Angeles, and San Jose, three playoff mainstays in recent years, missed the playoffs in 2015. Boston couldn't score enough, San Jose couldn't stop enough, and LA seemed to think their spot in the playoffs was reserved, and didn't have to be earned. The Boston Bruins finished with 213 goals for, which was lower than six other teams that did not make the playoffs, despite the Bruins having the most points (96) of any team that missed the playoffs. The San Jose Sharks finished seventh worst in goals against per game, despite facing the 15th most shots against. The LA Kings didn't have any glaring statistical weaknesses, they just seemed to think they could coast into the playoffs. Instead, they dropped five of their last eight games and allowed the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild to sneak in the back door and claim the two wild card spots.
Perhaps this was just an off season for these teams, with a few bad bounces here and there. They should be aware of how quickly things can change, however, and attack their off seasons accordingly. Seven teams that made the playoffs last year did not make it this year, including the division winning Colorado Avalanche, who wound up in last place in their division in 2015. Less than ten years ago, the Stanley Cup Finals matchup was Edmonton and Carolina. In 2015, Edmonton and Carolina have the first and fifth overall picks, respectively, in the upcoming draft. I probably have the most confidence in Boston to bounce back, as they have played at a high level more consistently, but young teams like Calgary, Winnipeg, and Ottawa aren't going anywhere.
Way Too Early Stanley Cup Finals Prediction For 2016: Blackhawks vs Capitals
Matty O
Monday, May 18, 2015
Quick Rundown of NHL & NBA Conference Finals
NHL
#1 Anaheim Ducks vs #3 Chicago Blackhawks
This series presents firsts for both teams. For the Blackhawks, this will be the first series where they face a legitimate offensive threat. Nashville limped into the playoffs to begin with, then had their fate sealed when they lost their best player in Shea Weber. Minnesota was the "little engine that could" story as the trade for goalie Devan Dubnyk sparked a run that allowed them to sneak into the playoffs. They were able to grind it out against the Blues, but the offensive firepower of the Hawks was too much in the next round. Anaheim, on the other hand, relies more on its scoring than relying on their goalie to hold down the fort.
The Ducks have three of the top five scorers in the postseason so far (Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silverberg), and Hawks fans should be even more concerned after the Perry-Getzlaf line didn't do too much in Game 1, yet the Ducks still won 4-1. This team will test Duncan Keith and Co. more than anyone so far this postseason, and they will need to be up for the challenge.
For the Ducks, this will be the first complete and experienced team they have faced so far. I thought they got the easiest draw out of any of the playoff teams, particularly after Calgary beat Vancouver. Winnipeg and Calgary were fun teams to watch, and the fans in both arenas were arguably the best of anyone this postseason. Still, those two teams were young and quite frankly over matched by the Ducks in every category. The Hawks, however, bring tons of playoff experience with them, along with a defense that ranked second in goals against per game in the regular season. They also have one of the best scorers in the game in Patrick Kane, as well as one of the best all-around players in the league in Jonathan Toews. If Patrick Sharp can continue his solid play so far this postseason, the Hawks should be able to match the Ducks offensively, if a certain game turns into a shootout.
The speed of the Hawks is what could turn this series in their favor. They easily outclass the Ducks in that category and need to use it better than they did in Game 1. The Hawks had their chances, but just couldn't capitalize. They need to keep it loose and open, rather than get into a physical, mashing kind of series. The Ducks will own them if that happens. The Game 1 loss shouldn't rattle the psyche of this Hawks' team and I expect them to even up the series before heading back to the United Center. Also, Hawks fans, stop being so fickle with Corey Crawford. He's no Carey Price, but he's no jabroni either.
Prediction: Hawks in six
#1 New York Rangers vs #2 Tampa Bay Lightning
The Rangers are probably the most complete team left in the playoffs. I guess you could single out Rick Nash as their skill position superstar, but the fact is that all their lines, from one to four, have solid players. It's hard to key in on any one player and say "if we take this guy out, we give ourselves a great chance to win." The problem is, they have plenty of other guys who can, and have, picked up the slack. Add in the fact that they have the best goalie left in the playoffs (Henrik Lundqvist), and you have a team that will be hard to beat in a seven game series. They have playoff, and Stanley Cup Final, experience from last year's run, and showed their grit and determination by coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to the Caps last round.
The Lightning should be that team that is too young to know any better, but here they are in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have a young goalie in Ben Bishop who has been standing on his head so far this postseason. I've been waiting for him to crack, and he certainly has had his bad moments (see Game 4 vs Montreal), but he's done extremely well for a goalie making his postseason debut. Offensively, they're getting it done with kids still in their early twenties. Their most productive line, comprised of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov, are all under 25, and all in the Top 11 for points scored this postseason. With Steven Stamkos picking his game up, the Lightning made Carey Price look human, as they beat the Habs in six after struggling against the Red Wings in the first round.
The difference here will be the New York Ranger defense. The Rangers won a 2-1 Game 1 where Tampa only got 24 shots on goal. If they can keep that number around there for the remainder of the series, they should be in good shape. If Tampa can get out in open space and start launching shots, they will rack up the goals, no matter who is in net. The Rangers need to make it a gritty series and counter with speedsters like Carl Hagelin and Chris Kreider to get fast break opportunities. I picked the Lightning to win the Cup at the start of the playoffs, though I have my doubts. I'll still pick them to win this series and hope that Stamkos will take over at some point, but I don't feel particularly confident about this pick.
Prediction: Lightning in seven
NBA
#1 Atlanta Hawks vs #2 Cleveland Cavaliers
Based on how people feel about each of these teams, those seedings should probably be reversed. As it stands, the series will start in Atlanta, though where it will end is anyone's guess. Atlanta has been, and still is, that mystery team. You look at their roster and wonder how they got the number one seed in the first place, and how they are four wins away from playing in the NBA Finals. Their previous two series this postseason makes me even more worried about their chances. The Brooklyn Nets took them to six games, and the Wizards also dragged the series out six games. I still think that if John Wall had not gotten injured that it would be the Wiz in the Conference Finals and not the Hawks. Injuries are part of the game though, and here the Hawks are.
Let's focus on the positives for this team. For starters, similar to the New York Rangers, they really don't have that one guy that must be shut down at all costs. Cleveland has LeBron, Houston has Harden, Golden State has Curry, the Hawks have...Teague? Korver? Believe it or not, the Hawks' leading scorer this postseason is DeMarre Carroll. They are a fairly balanced team offensively as they have the outside threat with Kyle Korver, a capable big man in Al Horford, and an underrated point guard in Jeff Teague. They play decent defense, with the whole being better than the sum of its parts. They are a great free throw shooting team, so if they can get into the Bonus early and often, that will certainly be helpful to prevent those hectic Cleveland fast breaks.
Man for man, however, they are at a severe disadvantage against the Cavs. The only minor concern for the Cavs coming into this series is the health of Kyrie Irving, but I don't even think that is an issue. Irving wasn't himself against the Bulls going up against Derrick Rose, and the Cavs still won in six games with their two losses coming by a combined ten points. I imagine the Hawks will put Carroll on LeBron James, and I imagine Carroll will struggle. Jimmy Butler's defense was a significant factor in why the Bulls won two games last series and kept it close in two others. If the Hawks allow LeBron to go into Beast Mode, then this series will be very short.
The key matchup in this series will be Korver on the offensive end against Iman Shumpert. Shumpert has developed into one of the better defenders in the league, and I imagine he will be tasked with keeping Korver from getting an open three point look, as Korver runs around the floor. If the Cavs allow Korver to heat up from three, it could keep the Hawks in the series. Unfortunately for the Hawks, I think the Cavs are just too good at every position. I think LeBron has at least one signature MVP-type game towards the end of this series, and the Cavs win rather easily.
Prediction: Cavs in five
#1 Golden State Warriors vs # 2 Houston Rockets
I look at this Golden State team like the Kentucky Wildcats basketball team of this year. If they play at their best, no one can beat them. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they play in a one-and-done format instead of a series. If the Splash Brothers are splashing, I don't think it much matters what the Rockets do. They will lose, and they will lose big. Draymond Green has also had an excellent postseason, and the big man Andrew Bogut did his share last series against the bruising combo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. It's extremely hard to find any weakness with this team as they can beat you in a variety of ways. They have the best home court advantage in the NBA, and look destined to reach the NBA Finals.
In my opinion, there are only three things that can happen that would allow the Rockets to have a chance to pull off this monumental upset. Number one is that James Harden out-MVPs the MVP. Harden was the runner-up in MVP voting this year, and I'll bet he takes some fire into this series to show that he should have been the winner. While his supporting cast isn't nearly as strong as Curry's, Harden has the ability to carry his team and will them to a victory. Number two is that Dwight Howard becomes a monster inside. Dwight is averaging a double double with points and rebounds, to go along with two and a half blocks per game. If he can be a dominant presence inside to supplement Harden's play, then this offense could have something going. The third thing is that they simply have to hope that Golden State misses their shots. The Rockets have to contest, foul, play dirty, do whatever they can to knock the Splash Brothers off their rhythm.
In the end, I think this series, and almost each game, is a rout. The Warriors were 4-0 against them in the regular season, and I think they finish this postseason 4-0 against the Rockets. The pieces around Harden just aren't enough to deal with everything that the Warriors can throw at them. Maybe the Rockets rally for a victory down in Texas, but I doubt it. I think this will be a very quick NBA playoff round, setting up a Curry vs LeBron, Cleveland vs Golden State, NBA Finals.
Prediction: Warriors in four
Matty O
#1 Anaheim Ducks vs #3 Chicago Blackhawks
This series presents firsts for both teams. For the Blackhawks, this will be the first series where they face a legitimate offensive threat. Nashville limped into the playoffs to begin with, then had their fate sealed when they lost their best player in Shea Weber. Minnesota was the "little engine that could" story as the trade for goalie Devan Dubnyk sparked a run that allowed them to sneak into the playoffs. They were able to grind it out against the Blues, but the offensive firepower of the Hawks was too much in the next round. Anaheim, on the other hand, relies more on its scoring than relying on their goalie to hold down the fort.
The Ducks have three of the top five scorers in the postseason so far (Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silverberg), and Hawks fans should be even more concerned after the Perry-Getzlaf line didn't do too much in Game 1, yet the Ducks still won 4-1. This team will test Duncan Keith and Co. more than anyone so far this postseason, and they will need to be up for the challenge.
For the Ducks, this will be the first complete and experienced team they have faced so far. I thought they got the easiest draw out of any of the playoff teams, particularly after Calgary beat Vancouver. Winnipeg and Calgary were fun teams to watch, and the fans in both arenas were arguably the best of anyone this postseason. Still, those two teams were young and quite frankly over matched by the Ducks in every category. The Hawks, however, bring tons of playoff experience with them, along with a defense that ranked second in goals against per game in the regular season. They also have one of the best scorers in the game in Patrick Kane, as well as one of the best all-around players in the league in Jonathan Toews. If Patrick Sharp can continue his solid play so far this postseason, the Hawks should be able to match the Ducks offensively, if a certain game turns into a shootout.
The speed of the Hawks is what could turn this series in their favor. They easily outclass the Ducks in that category and need to use it better than they did in Game 1. The Hawks had their chances, but just couldn't capitalize. They need to keep it loose and open, rather than get into a physical, mashing kind of series. The Ducks will own them if that happens. The Game 1 loss shouldn't rattle the psyche of this Hawks' team and I expect them to even up the series before heading back to the United Center. Also, Hawks fans, stop being so fickle with Corey Crawford. He's no Carey Price, but he's no jabroni either.
Prediction: Hawks in six
#1 New York Rangers vs #2 Tampa Bay Lightning
The Rangers are probably the most complete team left in the playoffs. I guess you could single out Rick Nash as their skill position superstar, but the fact is that all their lines, from one to four, have solid players. It's hard to key in on any one player and say "if we take this guy out, we give ourselves a great chance to win." The problem is, they have plenty of other guys who can, and have, picked up the slack. Add in the fact that they have the best goalie left in the playoffs (Henrik Lundqvist), and you have a team that will be hard to beat in a seven game series. They have playoff, and Stanley Cup Final, experience from last year's run, and showed their grit and determination by coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to the Caps last round.
The Lightning should be that team that is too young to know any better, but here they are in the Eastern Conference Finals. They have a young goalie in Ben Bishop who has been standing on his head so far this postseason. I've been waiting for him to crack, and he certainly has had his bad moments (see Game 4 vs Montreal), but he's done extremely well for a goalie making his postseason debut. Offensively, they're getting it done with kids still in their early twenties. Their most productive line, comprised of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Nikita Kucherov, are all under 25, and all in the Top 11 for points scored this postseason. With Steven Stamkos picking his game up, the Lightning made Carey Price look human, as they beat the Habs in six after struggling against the Red Wings in the first round.
The difference here will be the New York Ranger defense. The Rangers won a 2-1 Game 1 where Tampa only got 24 shots on goal. If they can keep that number around there for the remainder of the series, they should be in good shape. If Tampa can get out in open space and start launching shots, they will rack up the goals, no matter who is in net. The Rangers need to make it a gritty series and counter with speedsters like Carl Hagelin and Chris Kreider to get fast break opportunities. I picked the Lightning to win the Cup at the start of the playoffs, though I have my doubts. I'll still pick them to win this series and hope that Stamkos will take over at some point, but I don't feel particularly confident about this pick.
Prediction: Lightning in seven
NBA
#1 Atlanta Hawks vs #2 Cleveland Cavaliers
Based on how people feel about each of these teams, those seedings should probably be reversed. As it stands, the series will start in Atlanta, though where it will end is anyone's guess. Atlanta has been, and still is, that mystery team. You look at their roster and wonder how they got the number one seed in the first place, and how they are four wins away from playing in the NBA Finals. Their previous two series this postseason makes me even more worried about their chances. The Brooklyn Nets took them to six games, and the Wizards also dragged the series out six games. I still think that if John Wall had not gotten injured that it would be the Wiz in the Conference Finals and not the Hawks. Injuries are part of the game though, and here the Hawks are.
Let's focus on the positives for this team. For starters, similar to the New York Rangers, they really don't have that one guy that must be shut down at all costs. Cleveland has LeBron, Houston has Harden, Golden State has Curry, the Hawks have...Teague? Korver? Believe it or not, the Hawks' leading scorer this postseason is DeMarre Carroll. They are a fairly balanced team offensively as they have the outside threat with Kyle Korver, a capable big man in Al Horford, and an underrated point guard in Jeff Teague. They play decent defense, with the whole being better than the sum of its parts. They are a great free throw shooting team, so if they can get into the Bonus early and often, that will certainly be helpful to prevent those hectic Cleveland fast breaks.
Man for man, however, they are at a severe disadvantage against the Cavs. The only minor concern for the Cavs coming into this series is the health of Kyrie Irving, but I don't even think that is an issue. Irving wasn't himself against the Bulls going up against Derrick Rose, and the Cavs still won in six games with their two losses coming by a combined ten points. I imagine the Hawks will put Carroll on LeBron James, and I imagine Carroll will struggle. Jimmy Butler's defense was a significant factor in why the Bulls won two games last series and kept it close in two others. If the Hawks allow LeBron to go into Beast Mode, then this series will be very short.
The key matchup in this series will be Korver on the offensive end against Iman Shumpert. Shumpert has developed into one of the better defenders in the league, and I imagine he will be tasked with keeping Korver from getting an open three point look, as Korver runs around the floor. If the Cavs allow Korver to heat up from three, it could keep the Hawks in the series. Unfortunately for the Hawks, I think the Cavs are just too good at every position. I think LeBron has at least one signature MVP-type game towards the end of this series, and the Cavs win rather easily.
Prediction: Cavs in five
#1 Golden State Warriors vs # 2 Houston Rockets
I look at this Golden State team like the Kentucky Wildcats basketball team of this year. If they play at their best, no one can beat them. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they play in a one-and-done format instead of a series. If the Splash Brothers are splashing, I don't think it much matters what the Rockets do. They will lose, and they will lose big. Draymond Green has also had an excellent postseason, and the big man Andrew Bogut did his share last series against the bruising combo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. It's extremely hard to find any weakness with this team as they can beat you in a variety of ways. They have the best home court advantage in the NBA, and look destined to reach the NBA Finals.
In my opinion, there are only three things that can happen that would allow the Rockets to have a chance to pull off this monumental upset. Number one is that James Harden out-MVPs the MVP. Harden was the runner-up in MVP voting this year, and I'll bet he takes some fire into this series to show that he should have been the winner. While his supporting cast isn't nearly as strong as Curry's, Harden has the ability to carry his team and will them to a victory. Number two is that Dwight Howard becomes a monster inside. Dwight is averaging a double double with points and rebounds, to go along with two and a half blocks per game. If he can be a dominant presence inside to supplement Harden's play, then this offense could have something going. The third thing is that they simply have to hope that Golden State misses their shots. The Rockets have to contest, foul, play dirty, do whatever they can to knock the Splash Brothers off their rhythm.
In the end, I think this series, and almost each game, is a rout. The Warriors were 4-0 against them in the regular season, and I think they finish this postseason 4-0 against the Rockets. The pieces around Harden just aren't enough to deal with everything that the Warriors can throw at them. Maybe the Rockets rally for a victory down in Texas, but I doubt it. I think this will be a very quick NBA playoff round, setting up a Curry vs LeBron, Cleveland vs Golden State, NBA Finals.
Prediction: Warriors in four
Matty O
Friday, May 1, 2015
May 2nd: Sports Extravaganza
Are you ready? Even before the mega-fight was announced, May 2nd was packed with plenty of sports going-ons. When that fight was announced, however, it elevated May 2nd to one of the best sports days in recent memory. There's all sorts of stuff to watch if you're a sports fan, and I'll point out the highlights below. Get your beer, grab a pizza, and enjoy quite the sports extravaganza.
Barclay's Premier League, Morning
If soccer is your thing, then this will be a nice way to start your ultimate sports day. All American sports seem to be frustrating themselves with trying to find a way to prevent tanking. Well, the BPL has a fool proof way to do so, by relegating the bottom three teams to a lower division; think of it like the minors in the US. All three teams at the bottom of the standings (Burnley FC, Queens Park Rangers, Sunderland) will be in action on Saturday, and will be fighting for their lives with three weeks left in the season. It might not look pretty, but the passion and effort will be at 100% and sometimes that's all you need to rally your team to a win.
NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7), Noon Eastern
This certainly won't be the most exciting thing to watch, but that doesn't mean it is not important. It will likely be a lot of analysts talking with player names showing up on a ticker at the bottom when they are drafted. Keep in mind, however, that difference making players can still be found in these rounds. The two teams that played in this year's Super Bowl had a number of key players that were drafted in this area. The Pats had Stephen Gostkowski (4th), Rob Ninkovich (5th), Tom Brady (6th), and Julian Edelman (7th), while the Seahawks had Kam Chancellor (5th), Richard Sherman (5th), Byron Maxwell (6th), and JR Sweezy (7th). I'm not saying you should watch all the coverage, but certainly check to see who your favorite team has picked up. He might turn into a franchise player.
Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers (Game 2), 12:30pm Eastern
While I picked, and would have liked to have seen, a New York vs New York series, this Caps/Rangers series has plenty of intrigue. Prior to last year, these two teams met in the playoffs three straight times from 2011-13. The Caps breezed to a 4-1 series win in 2011, but the Rangers have taken the last two with each series going seven games. The Caps took Game One in Madison Square Garden on a last second goal. A scuffle ensued on the final face-off and I expect that frustration and aggression to carry over into Game 2, and throughout the series. I picked the Rangers in this series because of King Henrik, but if the Rangers don't find a way to score (scored more than 2 goals only once in six postseason games so far), then Ovechkin and the Caps might pull the upset.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox, 1:35pm Eastern
Red Sox and Yankees is always worth a watch for any baseball fan, and it certainly helps that the Yankees and Red Sox are playing well at this point in the season. The Red Sox reloaded after a last place finish in 2014, while the Yankees are playing well with a lot of the same cast from last year. One of the more intriguing Yankee and MLB story lines early in the season has been Alex Rodriguez. I thought he was going to struggle having missed all of 2014, but he has been their offensive centerpiece so far. I also expect him to be the centerpiece of a chorus of boos from the Boston faithful.
141st Kentucky Derby, 5pm Eastern
If horse racing took as long as a baseball or football game, I would never watch it. Thankfully, it only takes a couple minutes to run the actual race. That's about all the time I have to watch horses run around in a circle. When making a prediction for the Derby, I, like 99.99% of people in the world, have no real idea who is going to win. Instead, I always choose to bet on the horse with the coolest or catchiest name. The current favorite to win is a horse called American Pharoah. Not only did the namers of the horse spell pharaoh wrong, but I'm just fine with sticking with a president instead of a pharaoh. For me, the obvious choice is Ocho Ocho Ocho.
Consider that the number month (5) plus the number day (2) is seven. The last two digits in the year is 15. 15-7=8 which just so happens to be ocho in Spanish. Another thing to consider, it takes three wins (Derby, Belmont, and Preakness) to win the Triple Crown. This horse's name has the same word three times. Ocho Ocho Ocho's current odds are 50:1, but don't let that scare you off. All that means is a bigger payout when you win! I think the stars are aligned for Ocho Ocho Ocho to take the Derby Derby Derby.
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers, 8pm Eastern
Easily the best series of the first round, these two teams will decide their playoff fates on Saturday at the Staples Center. This series has the feel of a Western Conference Finals matchup rather than a first round one. There has been gritty play, unexpected performances, controversial calls, and tight finishes. Whoever gets the win in this series will have certainly earned it, but you certainly have to wonder how much this series has worn down the team that does advance. Even though it is back in LA, I think the Spurs find a way to pull out the win. I see their bench coming through once again, as their depth overcomes the top heavy Clippers' lineup.
Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao, 9pm Eastern
The Fight of the Century, and certainly the richest fight in boxing history, is finally going to happen. After years of Floyd ducking Pacquiao, these two great fighters will finally square off. To be honest, I've yet to watch either of them fight a full fight, and have only seen highlights. I'm picking Manny simply because he's definitely the more likeable guy out of the ring, and I think it will be better for boxing. I have a feeling that if Floyd wins, he'll take his ball and go home, and likely won't accept a rematch. Conversely, if Manny wins, I expect Floyd to demand a rematch so that an unavenged loss doesn't hang on his record. This fight would have been much better a few years ago, but it's good that it is finally happening. I do have a bad feeling that it might not live up to the hype, but that's mainly because the hype for this fight has been off the charts!
Matty O
Barclay's Premier League, Morning
If soccer is your thing, then this will be a nice way to start your ultimate sports day. All American sports seem to be frustrating themselves with trying to find a way to prevent tanking. Well, the BPL has a fool proof way to do so, by relegating the bottom three teams to a lower division; think of it like the minors in the US. All three teams at the bottom of the standings (Burnley FC, Queens Park Rangers, Sunderland) will be in action on Saturday, and will be fighting for their lives with three weeks left in the season. It might not look pretty, but the passion and effort will be at 100% and sometimes that's all you need to rally your team to a win.
NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7), Noon Eastern
This certainly won't be the most exciting thing to watch, but that doesn't mean it is not important. It will likely be a lot of analysts talking with player names showing up on a ticker at the bottom when they are drafted. Keep in mind, however, that difference making players can still be found in these rounds. The two teams that played in this year's Super Bowl had a number of key players that were drafted in this area. The Pats had Stephen Gostkowski (4th), Rob Ninkovich (5th), Tom Brady (6th), and Julian Edelman (7th), while the Seahawks had Kam Chancellor (5th), Richard Sherman (5th), Byron Maxwell (6th), and JR Sweezy (7th). I'm not saying you should watch all the coverage, but certainly check to see who your favorite team has picked up. He might turn into a franchise player.
Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers (Game 2), 12:30pm Eastern
While I picked, and would have liked to have seen, a New York vs New York series, this Caps/Rangers series has plenty of intrigue. Prior to last year, these two teams met in the playoffs three straight times from 2011-13. The Caps breezed to a 4-1 series win in 2011, but the Rangers have taken the last two with each series going seven games. The Caps took Game One in Madison Square Garden on a last second goal. A scuffle ensued on the final face-off and I expect that frustration and aggression to carry over into Game 2, and throughout the series. I picked the Rangers in this series because of King Henrik, but if the Rangers don't find a way to score (scored more than 2 goals only once in six postseason games so far), then Ovechkin and the Caps might pull the upset.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox, 1:35pm Eastern
Red Sox and Yankees is always worth a watch for any baseball fan, and it certainly helps that the Yankees and Red Sox are playing well at this point in the season. The Red Sox reloaded after a last place finish in 2014, while the Yankees are playing well with a lot of the same cast from last year. One of the more intriguing Yankee and MLB story lines early in the season has been Alex Rodriguez. I thought he was going to struggle having missed all of 2014, but he has been their offensive centerpiece so far. I also expect him to be the centerpiece of a chorus of boos from the Boston faithful.
141st Kentucky Derby, 5pm Eastern
If horse racing took as long as a baseball or football game, I would never watch it. Thankfully, it only takes a couple minutes to run the actual race. That's about all the time I have to watch horses run around in a circle. When making a prediction for the Derby, I, like 99.99% of people in the world, have no real idea who is going to win. Instead, I always choose to bet on the horse with the coolest or catchiest name. The current favorite to win is a horse called American Pharoah. Not only did the namers of the horse spell pharaoh wrong, but I'm just fine with sticking with a president instead of a pharaoh. For me, the obvious choice is Ocho Ocho Ocho.
Consider that the number month (5) plus the number day (2) is seven. The last two digits in the year is 15. 15-7=8 which just so happens to be ocho in Spanish. Another thing to consider, it takes three wins (Derby, Belmont, and Preakness) to win the Triple Crown. This horse's name has the same word three times. Ocho Ocho Ocho's current odds are 50:1, but don't let that scare you off. All that means is a bigger payout when you win! I think the stars are aligned for Ocho Ocho Ocho to take the Derby Derby Derby.
San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers, 8pm Eastern
Easily the best series of the first round, these two teams will decide their playoff fates on Saturday at the Staples Center. This series has the feel of a Western Conference Finals matchup rather than a first round one. There has been gritty play, unexpected performances, controversial calls, and tight finishes. Whoever gets the win in this series will have certainly earned it, but you certainly have to wonder how much this series has worn down the team that does advance. Even though it is back in LA, I think the Spurs find a way to pull out the win. I see their bench coming through once again, as their depth overcomes the top heavy Clippers' lineup.
Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao, 9pm Eastern
The Fight of the Century, and certainly the richest fight in boxing history, is finally going to happen. After years of Floyd ducking Pacquiao, these two great fighters will finally square off. To be honest, I've yet to watch either of them fight a full fight, and have only seen highlights. I'm picking Manny simply because he's definitely the more likeable guy out of the ring, and I think it will be better for boxing. I have a feeling that if Floyd wins, he'll take his ball and go home, and likely won't accept a rematch. Conversely, if Manny wins, I expect Floyd to demand a rematch so that an unavenged loss doesn't hang on his record. This fight would have been much better a few years ago, but it's good that it is finally happening. I do have a bad feeling that it might not live up to the hype, but that's mainly because the hype for this fight has been off the charts!
Matty O
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