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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

To NFL Fans: You're Hooked

On the heels of that madness in Seattle last night, there are people claiming that this is the start of the downfall of the NFL.  People are claiming they will stop watching the games.  Really?  Have fun Sunday afternoon watching re-runs of some horrible TV show on WGN. 

What people don't realize and what the league does is that the NFL has become so powerful and significant in our culture that it would take something revolutionary to bring it down.  My Facebook and Twitter were blowing up last night about people saying the NFL is garbage now, but I know come Monday that I'll see plenty of "Bears football, YAY" or "Can't wait for the Bears game 2nite" updates.  You'll still watch.  Packers fans are pissed, but I'll bet all of them will still watch their game next week.  The unfortunate part about this situation is that the fans, even in this age of social media, can do nothing about it.  In fact, all this publicity is helping the league.  It has become such an issue that even non-sports people are commenting on it, leading to more publicity and exposure for the league, and perhaps even snagging non-viewers that want to see what all this commotion is about. 

Without causing too much controversy, this situation reminds me a bit of this upcoming election and the overall political system in the US (if you have strong political views on either candidate, just skip these next two paragraphs).  Similar to the NFL, we know the problem; the economy is in the dump, our deficit is increasing, and unemployment rates are still high.  Similar to the NFL, the government has become such a behemoth that their power has become too great. In my opinion, similar to the NFL, the two options being presented to us as presidential candidates are unacceptable.  Do you expect either one to make our economy flourish and fix our debt?  I don't.  Why?  Because similar to the NFL, the people in power are too untouchable. 

Roger Goodell can receive all the hate mail you want to send him, but in the end people will still watch the games on TV and pay their hard earned money to see the game.  The NFL and its executives will not see a change in their lifestyles.  Lobbyists and politicians in DC have zero motivation to look out for the well being of us (the people) so long as their agendas are met and they get paid. Obama can be the NFL with replacement refs and Romney and be no NFL (or vice versa).  Both are options that will not fix the problems we have, but for now, like the NFL, we are forced to settle for one or the other.  In politics, it is going to take a drastic deviation from the norm by a politician or someone in power to truly shake up the system to focus on the problem.


In the NFL, it is going to take something drastic by an owner, team, and/or coach to make a significant impact on the league.  Even then, it might not be enough.  If a coach gets out of line with replacement officials, BAM! they get a fine slapped on them or potentially a suspension (Bill Belichick).  Owners will refuse to get caught up in it because their teams are still profitable.  "I'm free this weekend.  Want to go to the (insert favorite team here) game?"  "No, I'm not too fond of the replacement officials and I think the product on the field suffers."  That response would never happen.  We are essentially lemmings when it comes to the NFL.  I'll even admit I suffer from the same thing. 

The final call last night was atrocious along with many other penalties (or non penalties) along the way.  But I'm still going to watch next week.  Had that TD sent the game to overtime, I would have still watched it.  There was a point in the middle of the Eagles-Cardinals game this weekend where the refs were taking too long so I changed the channel...to another NFL game.  Even after last night, I would still rather watch a Cowboys-Redskins game with replacement refs than an Angels or White Sox game even though both teams are battling for a baseball playoff spot.  Viewership will still remain high for the NFL, and the league will still be intact.  So what can they do?

Many people might have already turned off their TVs, but after the TD last night, an extra point play still had to be run.  There was madness on the field obviously and many of the Packers and Seahawks had already left.  Mike McCarthy, head coach of the Packers and the ultimate professional last night, brought his team back out for the play even though they had just been robbed of a win.  Along those same lines, could we see an entire team strike?  Remember, there needs to be something drastic for the league to change.  Perhaps prior to a game or right after an inexplicably bad call, the team just decides they're through.  They pack up their stuff and head to the locker room.  This would obviously result in a loss for said team, as well as unhappy fans,  and fines and/or suspensions handed down from the league office.  A unified agreement by two teams in one game would be even better.  Something as drastic as that, while not exactly feasible, is an example of something that would need to be done.

Small signs of unity such as perhaps pre-game shirts that have sayings supporting the real NFL refs won't do the trick.  Twitter hash tags are useless.  Referee memes, while amusing, will only get a slight chuckle from the general public, a hilarious belly laugh from Roger Goodell, and do nothing beyond that.  Until a significant portion of fans decide to boycott the games and viewership, there is nothing that can be done.  So next Monday night, before the Bears game, you'll receive the weekly question of "Are You Ready For Some Football?"  Are you ready for some terrible calls?  Are you ready for more replacement officials?  Are you ready for your social media feeds to be consumed by this topic?  No, but where will you be?  That's right, on your couch, your HDTV turned to ESPN to watch the Bears and Cowboys vs the refs.  Goodell's got us; hook, line, and sinker.  Long live the NFL.

Matty O

Friday, September 21, 2012

Lay Off The Refs

"Terrible call!"  "These guys are taking forever!"  "Hey, isn't that guy a Saints fan?"  These are just a few of the things that people are saying about these new replacement refs through the first two weeks of the regular season.  Players, coaches, and fans are all yelling at them, criticizing their every call.  The commentators joke about them when they are reviewing a play as slow-mo replay shows the refs were wrong.  Realize, however, the situation they are being put in.

Labor negotiations with the 'real' refs had been going on all summer, but the dispute with the league was never resolved resulting in the situation the NFL has on its hands.  Just like the players, refs need time to prepare and train to acquire the skill to call a fair NFL game.  Think of this scenario like the lockout from last year.  The players looked rusty the first couple weeks as the lack of a true off-season was pointed to as the reason for injuries and poor play.  These refs also have a lack of preparation which may be the source of the complaints.  Although I am defending them, I will admit that their calls have been shaky at best.  They awarded a fourth timeout, have taken abnormally long discussing penalties, thrown late flags, and made bad calls.  But really, did you expect perfection?

Did you expect these new refs, who officiated at other levels or had different jobs entirely, to replace trained NFL level refs without a hiccup?  If you did, you severely underestimate the expertise NFL refs have.  To be honest, these replacement refs have made good calls.  There have been many times that I've been watching a broadcast, they will show the replay, and the commentators will say, "Yea, that is a good call."  They still call holding, hands to the face, pass interference, and any other penalty you don't think your team ever commits.  The late flags are certainly an issue, as these refs seem more swayed by players' reactions than the locked out refs.  But flag or no flag, the public would find something to criticize these refs about.

Here is the main conflict of interest I see.  Fans, coaches, and players want the right call.  These refs are not as used to the speed of the game in the NFL nor the crew and other refs they are working with (important from a trust, communication, and familiarity standpoint).  This causes them to take more time.  Fans, coaches, and players also want the calls as fast as possible.  Sorry, that's just not going to happen.  In my opinion, if the refs get the call right, take all the time you need.  While there have been a few instances of lengthy discussions, most of the calls are made within a reasonable time frame.  So maybe the discussion goes too fast and the ref calls the penalty on the wrong person or gets the yardage and/or down mixed up.  Then the whole stadium is in an uproar about how ludicrous and inept these refs are.  These refs must have come from Northwest South Dakota State Tech University (sorry to readers from this made up school) and can't tie their own shoes.  People need to accept the situation for what is it and decide if they prefer a faster game with more chance of inaccuracy or a slower game with greater integrity.  As it stands now, we can't have both.

Ironically, I think that if or when the regular officials come back, that they will be under the same microscope these refs are.  The replacement refs are being scrutinized so harshly because it is a deviation from the norm.  When the regular refs come back, their performance from the first week will be judged based on the weeks the replacement refs just officiated.  People will want to see is there really a difference?  If a regular ref messes up, what will the reaction be?  People will probably blame it on rust and be glad to have the officials back, even though that same mistake could be made by a replacement ref and they would be harassed.  What if the regular officials have a string of bad incidents early on when they come back to work?  That would be embarrassing for the NFL.  Even after a silly labor dispute, the real refs still can't get the calls right. 

This is why the real NFL refs have it so good.  Leverage, boys and girls, is at an all time high for them.  If there is this much media and NFL team shredding of these refs after two weeks, imagine what it will be like come week 5 or 6 or 7.  Outspoken and respected (key word) players like Ray Lewis have already spoken out about the refs.  When they speak, players, coaches, and fans listen.  Unfortunately, I see a breaking point where the replacement refs have a bad week and all hell breaks lose.  Players and coaches will go off on the refs and the league for not getting something done.  Heck, there might even be calls for replacements for the replacements.  The public will join the real referee's fight for a better contract and Roger Goodell could see all areas of the league targeting him for what has happened.  Since the officiating is being viewed negatively in the public eye, the NFL might even start losing casual fans.  Fans that will watch a game if it is on, but not if it takes four hours or bad calls are being made left and right. 

This is a very slippery slope the league is headed down.  Are these replacements the best refs we've seen?  No.  But given the circumstances, they're not doing that bad.  But next time you're yelling at the TV screen or updating your Twitter or Facebook with death threats to these officials, you might want to spend that energy attacking the league.  Tweeting Roger Goodell will go a longer way than arguing over a call that was just made.  It's done, it's a penalty.  Now sit back as the ref faces the wrong way, calls a seven yard holding penalty, and calls it on #14 Drew Brees of the Vikings.  First down Vikings Bears Saints those guys over there.

Matty O

Monday, September 17, 2012

NFC What?!?! NFC West Making An Early Statement

Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, Sam Bradford, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb.  In an era of passing, these are not exactly names that strike fear in the hearts of opponents.  Kolb and Skelton have been battling over the starting job for a couple years now, leading to instability and losses in Arizona.  Bradford had a fine rookie season, but saw injuries plague him his second year as he led the Rams to only one win and six TDs in 10 starts, leading many to question his rookie year as an aberration.  Wilson is an undersized (5'11") rookie from Wisconsin who started the season as the third string quarterback on the Seahawks.  Smith is a former number one overall pick, but seen by many as a bust before last year as he came up well short following the likes of Joe Montana, Steve Young, and even Jeff Garcia.
But here they are.  A division where the Arizona Cardinals and 49ers are 2-0 (only division in the NFL to have two 2-0 teams), the St. Louis Rams are 1-1 with a tight loss to the Detroit Lions, and the Seattle Seahawks' only loss to division rival Arizona.  In the process they have racked up wins against Robert Griffin III, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo.  This is a division that, the past few years, has been the laughing stock of the league.  This is a division that sent a team with a losing record to the playoffs (Seahawks at 7-9 in 2010).  Well now, this is a division that is making noise and the league should pay attention although it is very easy not to.

Here is Kevin Kolb's stat line from the New England game:  15/27, 140 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 20 rushing yards, 1 TD.  Meanwhile, star receiver Larry Fitzgerald only had four yards on one catch and no Cardinals runner gained more than 44 yards.  That's not how you win in this league.  Heck, you can't even play the turnover card as the Cardinals had 2 to New England's one.  The key was special teams and a stingy defense.  They got up in Brady's face as the offense concentrated on controlling the clock, rather than the total yards.  But this was a Patriot team that were Super Bowl runner ups.  Despite losing Hernandez, they still had the Gronk, Wes Welker, and Brandon Lloyd.  Scary, yet the Cardinals defied the odds and beat the Pats in Foxboro.

Defying the odds is one thing.  Defying the media hype is another.  Given all the media attention RG3 has gotten, you would think he is the next MVP.  Hold your horses.  Yes, he exploded against the Saints, but the Saints are now looking like a team that anyone can score on.  Then come the lowly Rams.  The Rams that people joke about needing Kurt Warner back.  The Rams that finished last in the division last year, have an aging running back, an injury prone quarterback, and wide receivers that make you scratch your head and wonder, 'who?'  Yet in the face of another great performance by RG3, it was the other former Heisman trophy winner that shined.  Bradford threw for 310 yards and 3 TDs, half as many as he threw for all of last year.  Danny Amendola, unknown outside of St. Louis and the fantasy football realm, had 160 yards and a TD, leading the Rams to victory.  This after the Rams lost a heartbreaker to Detroit the week before and the Redskins were supposed to go to the Super Bowl after lighting up the Saints.  Amazing how quickly things change.

Another case of a swing in momentum was the Dallas Cowboys-Seattle Seahawks game.  The Cowboys were fresh off an opening night win over the defending champion New York Giants where Tony Romo shined, and the defense that haunted their team all of last year looked much improved.  Four days later, the Seahawks made their fans question the decision to start the rookie Wilson as he threw for only 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and lost a fumble in an ugly loss to Arizona.  Looking at stats alone, Wilson performed pretty much the same on Sunday as he threw for 151 yards, 1 TD, but 0 turnovers.  He was an excellent manager of the game as he missed only five passes.  He wasn't trying to be Tony Romo, he was trying to be Russell Wilson which meant controlling the clock and relying on a hard nosed defense.  That defense forced two turnovers and special teams blocked a punt, and returned it for a TD.  The offense held the ball for nearly 35 minutes, draining the Cowboy's defense and limiting Romo's opportunities.  This was not the script that should have been written for this game.  That's three impressive victories for the NFC West on one Sunday.

Make that four, although the 49ers are a bit less of a surprise than the other three teams in the division.  Still, Aaron Rodgers and the high flying Packers offense in a packed Lambeau Field is no cake walk.  But the 49ers defense "held" Rodgers to 303 yards and two TDs and even forced an interception.  Smith, meanwhile, only missed six passes as he threw two TDs and committed zero turnovers.  They were able to hold the ball for six more minutes than the Packers.  Using pace and fundamentals, not flash and flair to win ball games.  In came the Lions.  Although having a rough first game, Stafford looked to find his groove towards the end of the St. Louis game.  He's still a threat to throw for 400 yards any time he steps out there.  Instead he threw for 230, only 1 TD, and 1 INT.  They flushed him from the pocket constantly and stifled the Lions's persistent attempts to establish the run game as they only ran for 82 yards.  This has been their formula ever since John Harbaugh took over and they are reaping the rewards now.

How big can these rewards be?  How's undefeated sound.  Almost sounds crazy I know, but look at their schedule.  The Giants, Saints, and Patriots are the only three teams left on their schedule that made the playoffs last year.  The Giants were beat by the Cowboys in week 1 and needed a comeback of epic proportions to beat the Buccaneers this Sunday.  The Saints are now 0-2 and look absolutely dreadful on defense.  The Patriots are now Hernandez-less and just lost to the Cardinals showing that they are indeed beatable.  With the amount of talent and depth they have at defense, an excellent game managing quarterback, and a coach and team that believes, it is not that absurd to envision this team going undefeated, and perhaps all the way this year.

These are not your father's Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks.  This is a new style of play in an era that does not call for it.  Stingy and stifling defense coupled with disciplined special teams and mistake free offenses.  This is their formula.  So throw the ball 40 times against them.  Put a defense out there that can't stop a nose bleed.  Take dumb penalties that cost you the game.  Just be ready to see one, two, or even three of these teams from the NFC West in the playoffs.

Matty O.


Thursday, September 6, 2012

Fantasy Observations: Giants - Cowboys

HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!!!

Had to throw in some love for my team there, but this will focus on what you, as a fantasy football owner, should take away from this past game.

New York Giants
Owners of the Giants passing game (Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks) need to take a deep breath.  Cruz and Manning were one missed pass interference call away from a score and I did not expect Nicks to be as sharp as he will next week after coming off a foot injury.  If you owned any of them this week, or more than one of them, you might be in trouble as Eli posted a mere 12.52 pts, Cruz posted 5.8, and Nicks posted 3.8.  Not good for a starting quarterback and two WR2, depending on your depth at wide receiver.  Even for a WR3 or flex play those aren't good numbers.

Note that Cruz still got a ridiculous 11 targets and Nicks got six after missing nearly all of training camp and only playing very little in their last preseason game.  Also, and this might be some Cowboys favoritism, they were going up against a darn good secondary.  The achilles heel of the Cowboys last year could become a strength as free agent Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne were excellent in coverage all night against the two receivers.  Ahmad Bradshaw, meanwhile, racked up 93 total yards and a score.  Although I did not get around to doing an NFC fantasy breakdown before my draft, I would have commented on how I thought Bradshaw was being drafted too low.  People were ready to crown David Wilson as the back to get for the Giants and all he did was rush for four yards and lose a fumble.  He is still a solid fantasy option.

Finally, their defense...oh boy.  Aside from Jason Pierre Paul, who played his butt off, no one else on the Giants D really impressed.  Their secondary lost another player, Michael Coe, which leaves them amazingly slim in the secondary.  They will have Prince Amukamara back next week, but he is not what I would call an elite cornerback yet, although he was drafted like one.  I think people thought 'their great defensive line will get sacks and pressure so a below average secondary is okay.'  The Cowboys tore that theory to shreds.  I'm not saying you should drop them yet, but don't be afraid to store away an underrated unit off the waiver wire.  Speaking of which...

Dallas Cowboys
...how bout that Cowboys defense.  The Giants did put up 17 points, although their last TD was a bit of the result of them playing soft coverage, but it is still a score.  They were only able to get one turnover, but should have gotten more.  Barry Church nearly picked off Eli which would have gone for a TD, Morris Claiborne put his hands on display a few times breaking up the pass, and Brandon Carr should have had an interception on Eli's bomb to Domenik Hixon, but he wildly mistimed the jump.  On top of that, the secondary was missing former Pro Bowler Mike Jenkins and disruptive nose tackle Jay Ratliff.  Once those two return, with Demarcus Ware's pass rush, and Dez Bryant's potential to break a long punt return and you have a solid case for an elite fantasy defense.  They are probably sitting on the waiver wire right now.  Hey you, stop reading and pick them up.

One guy who might not be on the waiver wire anymore is Kevin Ogletree.  From a fan's perspective, all I can say is thank you as he was an integral part in beating the Giants.  He certainly has skills, but as I mentioned before, he was going up against 5th and 6th string cornerbacks for the Giants.  He will not get that luxury every week.  Witten, Austin, and Bryant all made it through the game without aggravating their lingering off-season injuries, that we know of, which means they all should be at 100% next week.  Ogletree, like Cruz, got 11 targets but in the long run he is still 4th behind Witten, Ausitn, and Bryant.  This was more a product of bad defense than elite skill, sorry.  If you have an open roster spot or Mark Sanchez, then pick this guy up as a wait and see type player, otherwise don't worry about the potential mad scramble to scoop him up.

Demarco Murray was another bright spot for the Cowboys as he racked up 131 rushing yards including a memorable 48 yard scamper where he bounced off players and changed directions, making Giants players miss him left and right.  Only bad part was he cut inside when he could have had a TD if he kept on the sidelines.  He struggled in the first half as the Cowboys pretty much abandoned the run for a stretch, but eventually wore down the Giants' defense to allow for some decent gains.  One thing I liked seeing was he was running through players and not shying away from contact.  It got him a few extra yards here and there on some plays and shows he is not concerned about his injury plagued past.

Lastly, the Cowboys passing game looked sharp.  Romo put up numbers although I felt he checked down to quickly.  Not saying checking down is a bad thing, but with receivers like Austin and Bryant who can make something special happen, I would like to see him key on them longer.  For instance, Romo's TD pass to Austin was not the safest of all balls.  There were two defenders there, but Austin made an adjustment, caught it at its highest point, then ran in for the score.  All three should be in all league's starting lineups with Bryant having more risk, but also more upside given his freakish athleticism.

Matty O