The most relevant division for the majority of my readers. This should be a very competitive division and is stacked with fantasy talent.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson (Injury Pending), RB, Percy Harvin, WR
Peterson, when healthy, is one of the best fantasy running backs to have on your team. Despite only playing in 12 games last year, he still put up 973 rushing yards and 13 total TDs, including double digit fantasy point games in three out of the four divisional games he played in last year (Bears held him to 9 in Week 6). If he is healthy then he should be the center of the offense once again and should get plenty of opportunities to get touches. His recovery from his ACL injury has been phenomenal so far, but follow his status closely leading up to your draft. If he looks good to go, or drops in your draft, take him knowing the tremendous reward you could get.
Percy Harvin, surprisingly, did play in all 16 games for the Vikings last year. This is good news for potential owners of Harvin this year. He has had a history of migraine problems which for a while, kept owners guessing what week he would play. This issue seemed to be resolved last year as he finished with 1309 total yards and eight total TDs. If Peterson misses time, or even if he doesn't, expect Harvin to be a threat not just from a receiving perspective but from a rushing one as well. His natural Florida Gator speed gives him the ability to break any play open at any time.
Bust: Adrian Peterson, RB
Similar to Steven Jackson on the Rams, I put him here because no one else on the team did anything of enough significance last year to be put in the bust section. Like Jackson, I still think Peterson is a good player. I am one of the believers that thinks he will come back from his ACL injury no problem because of his freakish athleticism. If that does not work out, however, then the above stud section for him is all for naught. Toby Gerhart averaged nearly five yards a carry last year and is certainly capable of carrying the load for the Vikings. This could mean that even though Peterson feels he is ready to go, the coaching staff may limit him to prevent re-injury.
Sleeper: Christian Ponder, QB
Please keep reading, I haven't lost my mind. True, Ponder's 2011 left much to be desired as he threw for 1,853 yards and 13 TDs, but also 13 INTs. But he was a rookie, did not have Adrian Peterson at full health, and had limited receiving options to say the least. He is now in his second year with the offense and does not have to deal with a lack of preparation like last year when the collective bargaining agreement was being worked out; Peterson appears to be coming back strong; the Vikings selected Matt Kalil 4th overall in this year's draft to defend him; and they picked up Jerome Simpson, John Carlson, and drafted dangerous Jarius Wright out of Arkansas. I think they will let Ponder throw it around more than last year and he should have more protection. Expect a much better season from Ponder, although you may want to take a wait and see approach before inserting him in your starting line up.
Bottom Line:
The last place team from 2011 will be better, but won't challenge for the division due to a porous defense. Offensively, however, they remain a potent threat with fantasy starters to be had. Also keep an eye on who gets the spot behind Harvin as the number 2 receiver. That player could give you good value as a bye week or matchup fantasy player.
Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Brandon Marshall, WR, Jay Cutler, QB
Forte is signed for those of you wondering. Now that the lead back is back, expect him to be just as involved as last year. He didn't play the last four games of the season last year due to injury but do not count that as a concern. The Michael Bush signing shouldn't concern people either as that was done during Forte's contract dispute. With the hassle they went through to get the deal done, Forte is number one, Bush is number two, end of story. He was the main focus of the offense last year and finished with 1487 total yards but only four TDs. His TD total is a bit concerning, and Bush should do nothing to help that fact as he will certainly vulture away some valuable fantasy points. That being said, Forte will still get his touches and is one of the best backs in the league at catching that quick swing or screen pass and racking up yards after the catch.
Marshall finished last year with 1214 yards and six TDs despite catching balls from the likes of Chad Henne and Matt Moore. Now he reunites with Jay Cutler, the quarterback who played with him in Denver when he had his most consistently productive years. His catching and athletic skills make him a good bet for red zone TDs and he avoids facing Darrelle Revis, whom he had to face twice last year. His off the field issues and explosive personality should always be taken into consideration with Marshall, but the player that you get when he is clear of distractions is usually worth the risk.
I have always been a Cutler basher. I've never thought he was that good and think he would do well showing some real emotion during the games at some point. Having said that, this is meant to give you draft and fantasy advice. As far as that goes, Cutler is a solid quarterback. He now has two capable backs (Bush and Forte) as well as a whole host of weapons on offense (Marshall, rookie receiver Alshon Jeffery who I will talk about later, tight end Kellen Davis (remember Mike Martz is gone), and Devin Hester). Everyone saw how badly the team struggled down the stretch when Cutler got injured, although I think a lot of blame goes purely to bad backup quarterbacking skills. He had a 13 to 7 TD to INT ratio last year which will need to improve, but I think he has the weapons to do so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
They will be drafted like a top defense although I think they are running on reputation this season. Julius Peppers is still a stud up front, but that's about all they have in terms of getting to the quarterback. They drafted defensive end Shea McClellin with the 19th overall pick in this year's draft, but I don't think that is the answer. Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are still capable linebackers, but the secondary behind them is questionable. I don't want a questionable secondary or defense on my fantasy roster when they have to go up against Aaron Rodgers (twice), Matthew Stafford (twice), Tony Romo, Cam Newton, and Matt Schuab. If they fall, pick them up, but don't be too excited about this bunch. Also, unless you are counting return yards, I advise not picking a defense/special teams unit based solely on the returner. Yes, you know how good Devin Hester is, but so do his opponents. Expect a fair amount of kicks away from Hester with his return TDs not making up for bad defensive plays.
Sleeper: Alshon Jeffery, WR
A beast at South Carolina, this guy can play. Because of off the field issues, his draft stock fell and the Bears were able to pick him up in the second round of this year's draft. He's 6'3" but plays taller than that and has exceptional hands. It is amazing that he could start as a rookie opposite Marshall in Week 1 of the regular season. If teams decide to double team Marshall or focus in on Forte, I guarantee you that Jeffery will make them pay for it. If you haven't heard of him, here are his highlights from South Carolina's bowl game vs Nebraska. His good and bad are on display as his big play ability, inconsistency, and hot head are all shown. Get rid of the bad, and you have a solid fantasy starter.
Bottom Line:
A contender for the division crown, the Bears should have plenty of fantasy value on this team. There's always an issue when there is this much talent about who will get the touches, but expect the studs to still put up numbers for you in the end. Also, don't forget about Mr. Consistency Robbie Gould when the kickers start getting taken. Last but not least, the most popular piece of Bears trivia: Jay Cutler and Earl Bennett were teammates at Vanderbilt. But seriously, don't draft Earl Bennett.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Matthew Stafford, QB, Calvin Johnson, WR
Stafford finally made it through a full season healthy and what a season it was. 5038 passing yards and 41 passing TDs tell the story. The Lions realized the special abilities of Stafford this past season and used their first round draft pick on offensive tackle Riley Reiff out of Iowa. The Lions might also find a running game this year which could open up defenses even more. It also helps to have arguably the best receiver in the game in Calvin Johnson. Stafford makes good decisions and can post monster fantasy numbers for your team. Unfortunately for many fantasy owners last year, his best game came in week 17 when most leagues were over. He was still able to post seven 20 point games throughout the regular season and will see the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcon's pass defenses in the fantasy playoffs this year.
Johnson, aka Megatron, needs no introduction. Facing double teams and nagging leg problems, he still put up 1681 yards and a whopping 16 receiving TDs. His size and hands make him nearly impossible to defend as he twice eclipsed 30 fantasy points and only had single digit games four times. You should need no more convincing. Take him early.
Bust: Calvin Johnson, WR
Madden Curse, you have been warned.
Sleeper: Titus Young, WR
All things considered, Young had a solid rookie campaign. He finished with 607 yards and six receiving TDs. The double teams on Johnson did, and should in the future, free up more room for Young. Stafford and the Lions attempted more passes than anyone else in the league last year so he'll certainly get his chances. Not all of them can go Megatron's way. He wound up with 84 targets last year and I expect that number to easily be in the triple digits this upcoming year. What he does with those targets is up to him.
Bottom Line:
In the Lions case, you should put all your eggs in one basket. Well, technically two. While there aren't a lot of players to go around, the amount of points that Stafford and Megatron will get for you will be mind boggling. You could have some hope for their running game, but don't count on it. Their defense should be porous enough again this year that the offense will have to outscore the other team. Good news for owners of players on this team.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Greg Jennings, WR, Jordy Nelson, WR
Rodgers was the MVP last season, and there is no reason to think he can't repeat. He probably might have been Super Bowl MVP had it not been for his receiver's hands during the divisional playoff game against the Giants (six drops). Despite coming up short for the Super Bowl, Rodgers finished the season with 4643 yards, 45 passing TDs, only six INTs, and three rushing TDs. Wow. Apart from a 17 fantasy point hiccup against the Raiders, Rodgers posted 20 or more fantasy points in all games he played in including games of 45, 30, 31, and 32. Although the top picks in fantasy drafts are usually reserved for running backs or a Michael Vick type quarterback, Rodgers is good enough that he deserves consideration. A great O-line and potent weapons all around him make Rodgers an easy and safe first round draft choice.
Jennings got injured towards the end of last season and was not able to play for the final month. Before he went down, Jennings racked up 949 yards and 9 TDs. Jordy Nelson got all the hype towards the end of last season, but be aware that Jennings is the definite number one receiver and has more chemistry with Rodgers. His route running is among the best in the game and he plays smart to make up for his lack of speed and raw athleticism. The only concern you should have are targets being distributed elsewhere, but even that won't be enough to keep Jennings from putting up the numbers you need.
As mentioned before, Nelson caught fire towards the end of last year and will probably be a bit over hyped going into drafts this year. He wound up with 1263 yards and and 15 TDs in a pass heavy offense. Keep in mind that he had games of 14, 23, and 34 when Jennings was injured so expect Nelson's stats, especially his TDs, to come a bit back to Earth. Having said that, he is the clear cut number two receiver for Rodgers to throw to and proved last year that he can be a big time receiver. Although Jennings's return means less targets his way, it also means less coverages which could open Nelson up.
Bust: Jermichael Finley, TE
Finley's 2011 was haunted by drops (11) and he managed to be a mediocre to bad tight end option in a year when his quarterback posted ridiculous numbers. He still has to contend with Jennings and now more than ever Nelson for targets. His athleticism makes him an alluring prospect and he will still go off in certain weeks. His inconsistency is what makes him a bust as well as where he will be drafted. Don't think of him among the Graham and Gronkowskis of the world. He can still be a starting tight end in a 12 or even 10 team league, but there will be better players drafted later than him, and he will cause you frustration throughout the season.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Predicted to be a great unit last year, they floundered. They were last in the league in 2011 in passing yards given up per game, averaging 300. They allowed teams to score more than 30 points on them four times during the regular season, not counting the 37-20 beat down the Giants put on them. Thankfully they had Rodgers last year, but there's no guarantee the offense will always bail them out (case in point: that Giants game). The Packer's front office recognized this as a problem and drafted six defensive players and didn't even address the offense until the 7th round. The Packers should also get standout cornerback Tramon Williams back from injury, although when is to be determined. I expect an improved Packers team as the loss of Cullen Jenkins was significant. With another year under their belt, expect them to come back into form. For those wondering Randall Cobb is a really good returner too. Unlike Hester, they'll probably still kick to him.
Bottom Line:
All aboard the offense express. Rodgers should be taken early with Nelson and Jennings being among the top crop of receivers taken. Expect this team to not miss a beat from 2011 despite being in such a tough division.
Matty O.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Fantasy Breakdown: AFC West
Part two of this series. Although not the best division in football, it is certainly the most balanced as the records of the teams in this division last year were 8-8, 8-8, 8-8, and 7-9, with all four teams being an even 3-3 in division play. I expect the same kind of parity this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: TBD
This section is reserved for players that you do not need to worry about if you draft them. Unfortunately Chiefs fans, there is no one on this team that possesses that quality. There are a few players on this team that have the potential to be fantasy studs, but as you will read later, they nearly all come with a risk. Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles are not impressing me this year.
Bust: Dwayne Bowe, WR
He will be drafted like a number one, high number two WR, but will finish as nothing better than a flex/WR3 player. Don't blame it on him though. If he gets the ball, his size and athleticism are up there with the best in the league. But that is a big if. Matt Cassel failed to reach a mere 200 yards in five of the eight games he played before breaking his hand in week 10. Pathetic. With Jamaal Charles back along with new free agent Peyton Hillis, expect the Chiefs to become a run first, ground and pound type team with their passes coming on third and long or off of play action. The blueprint for a bad season was evident towards the end of last year as Bowe finished in single digits 10 of the last 11 weeks of the season.
Sleeper: Peyton Hillis, RB
A disappointing season with the Browns last year aside, this is still a solid starting running back on most rosters. He gets the sleeper designation because of last year's decline in numbers coupled with the fact that he will not be listed as the starter with the honors going to Jamaal Charles. Fortunately for Hillis, ACL injuries, which Charles suffered last year, are not the easiest to come back from. Given Hillis' size, he will probably be the goal line back which should give you some valuable points if his yards are not there. With bad rushing defenses within the division (highest last year was San Diego at 20th overall in rush defense) and an offense that should run it an unusually high amount, feel free to take a flier on Hillis if your position needs are covered. He may just sneak into your starting line up.
Bottom Line:
Look for your running back strength here, and stay away from any of their receivers. Cases could be made for the likes of Jon Baldwin (WR) or Tony Moeaki (TE) but it would be wishful thinking rather than true reasons to have them occupy a spot on your fantasy team. On the other side of the ball, look for the Chiefs defense to be hit or miss. The good news: Eric Berry is back, Tamba Hali had a breakout year, and they drafted 346 lb. Dontari Poe. The bad news: lost stud corner Brandon Carr to my Cowboys, there is no guarantee Poe will be the answer, and they play potent offensive teams such as the Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, and some guy named Peyton Manning joined a team in their division (Broncos). Pick them up off waivers as a bye week fill in or matchup choice, but not as your starting D.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: Sebastian Janikowski, K, Darren McFadden, RB
What? A kicker as a stud player? For those that do not know, the Raiders have by far the best kicking game in the NFL with Janikowski doing the field goals and Shane Lechler doing the punts. He has a powerful leg and can drill them from 60+ which allows the coaching staff to let him try kicks from distances that other kickers do not get a chance to. While only finishing third among kickers for fantasy points, he did have six double digit games including a 23 point performance against the Bears. If the Raiders offense can be more consistent than last year, expect these numbers to go up.
Why is McFadden a stud for the Raiders but Charles was not one for the Chiefs even though they both have injury problems? For starters, McFadden is a better player than Charles when both are at 100%. He also does not have a player like Peyton Hillis behind him ready to vulture carries. That honor went to Michael Bush last year, but he is now playing for the Bears. Now the Raiders have a cluster of unproven backs behind McFadden that the coaching staff will not want to put their faith into. If healthy, he could be a top five back for fantasy as he racked up double digit points in all but one game he played last year (it was against Houston's tough run D) including a 29 point beat down of the Jet's D. I see a Michael Vick situation playing out here. He is so talented that you take him anyways, but just have a solid back to replace him if, or rather when, he gets injured.
Bust: All Raiders WRs
In their defense, all of them can play. Denarius Moore, Darius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Louis Murphy make up this mess of wide outs. None of them are that bad of options, it is just a consistency factor. Maybe it is just me, but I would rather take a player who puts up low double digit points nearly every week rather then someone who's points totals go 0, 6, 24, 1 which was Moore's points for a four week stretch last year. You are playing fantasy roulette with these guys as they are just as likely to go for 30 as they are for zero. Don't forget that Carson Palmer is the one throwing the ball, not the poster boy for a consistent quarterback either. If you don't mind the risk, I suppose Moore is the "safest" but you can do better.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
Although he is not the poster boy for a consistent quarterback, he is also not the poster boy for a terrible one. He started off his Raider's career with a negative fantasy points game which is unheard of for a quarterback. He rebounded strongly, however, with double digit points seven out of his last nine games although he only eclipsed 20 points once. Think of him as a Kyle Orton type who will manage the game and make a few big plays here and there. He came to Oakland in the middle of the season so expect him to have a better grasp of the playbook. McFadden's health will also be a factor as teams will stack the box if he is able to stay in top form. This will give Palmer more one on one matchups and mismatches for him to expose. If his top two wideouts (Moore and Heyward-Bey) can also stay healthy, expect Palmer to give you okay numbers as either a fill in, or even a starter if you loaded up on wide receivers and running backs early in your fantasy draft.
Bottom Line
Feast or famine should be the theme with the Raiders this year in fantasy and real life. Apart from their kicking game, there are questions on all fronts. Consistency and health will be an issue with this team all year long. If they can stay healthy, however, this could be a team stacked with players to help you get to the playoffs and beyond.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Ryan Matthews, RB, Antonio Gates, TE, Phillip Rivers, QB
Despite their solid numbers last year, I think all three players will have even better seasons this year. Matthews no longer has Mike Tolbert to steal carries and touchdowns from him, although his injury problems should give owners some hesitation. Despite that, he is a legitimate pass catcher out of the backfield and does not shy away from contact. He still finished in the top 10 for fantasy running backs with over 1000 yards last year despite only getting into the end zone six times. Look for him to get even more touches this year.
It seems like Gates has been playing for the Chargers forever, yet he is only 32. Injuries have worn on him, however, and the explosion is not quite what it used to be. Having said that, he has the best chemistry with Phillip Rivers among the pass catching targets, even when Vincent Jackson was there. His size makes him a matchup nightmare anywhere on the field, but especially in the red zone as he posted seven TDs last year. His yardage numbers leave some to be desired, but if you miss out on the elite crop of tight ends, don't feel bad taking Gates as he should outplay his draft position.
What a season for Rivers last year. 20 interceptions was a career high for him and unacceptable for a number one fantasy quarterback. He no longer has Vincent Jackson, his top wide receiver for the past few years. So what good is there? Even though the Chargers will want to include Matthews more in the offense this year, this should include passing plays such as screens which will get Rivers stats as well. Malcom Floyd is no slouch, Robert Meachem held his own in New Orleans, Eddie Royal is a dependable slot guy, and Vincent Brown showed flashes last year and may sneak into the starting role if injuries plague Floyd and Meachem like they have in the past. I'm actually high on Rivers this year as I do not think he will crack the top five fantasy quarterbacks but will definitely be top ten and will be drafted lower than he should be.
Bust: All Chargers WRs
Similar to the Raiders, there is no clear number one receiver. They all have the skill, but when they go off is anyone's guess. They will still have to contend with Gates and Matthews for touches and Floyd no longer has Jackson to draw away double coverages. Like the Raider's receivers, draft them or pick them up off waivers with risk but try to find more proven options.
Sleeper: Ronnie Brown, RB
That's right. The guy the Eagles tried to trade last year and the one that made this outrageous mistake last year. Unfortunately, I see no other sleepers on this roster. Brown's value is dependent on Matthews's health. They will not use Brown like Tolbert, so he will not see that many carries as long as Matthews is the starter. Matthews has been an injury waiting to happen for his entire career, however, so the chance could be there for Brown. He won't get drafted so this will be a wait and see type thing, but don't forget about him on waivers if Matthews falters play wise or health wise.
Bottom Line:
This Chargers team will be much better than last year's version and should have their three studs (Rivers, Matthews ,Gates) be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for you. A daunting stretch to end the season with games at Denver, against Baltimore and Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, against Carolina, and at New York in Week 16 (when most fantasy championship games are) should give you a bit of worry, but nothing too major. Apart from their stars, however, avoid players on this team. That Ronnie Brown sleeper is an enormous reach and the other players are unproven.
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Eric Decker, WR
I am one of the people that do not think Manning will return to form. Having said that, his form was so good that a drop off from that is still great for a fantasy quarterback. His neck injury from last year is still a concern, but Denver's offensive line is solid and he will have Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno to hand the ball off to and take some pressure off. While his injury may have affected his movement and physical abilities, he remains one of the best readers and callers of the game which will make every offensive player in Denver better. Draft him as your starting quarterback with confidence.
Manning's arrival helps Thomas and Decker the most. Both are supreme talents whose stats were not as high due to Tim Tebow and the offense Denver ran last year. Now they get a precision passer who likes to sling the ball around. Decker is the better route runner of the two and was a safety valve for Tebow last year racking up 612 yards and eight touchdowns. Thomas was not even supposed to play last year after injuring his achilles, but got playing time in week 7. It took him some time, but eventually he posted impressive numbers with games of 26, 13, and 11 in a row. This doesn't even include his monster performance in Denver's first round playoff game including this memorable catch to end the game. Tebow gets credit for the play, but Thomas was the one who threw a nasty stiff arm and ran 60 yards for the score. His athleticism makes him a tantalizing wide receiver for fantasy as I think him, and possibly Decker, could be top 20 receivers this year with Thomas even making the top 10. That's how good he is and how precise Manning is.
Bust: Willis McGahee, RB
The Manning acquisition hurts McGahee the most. Gone are the days of read options and high touches for McGahee as the offense is no longer a Tebow offense. The line of scrimmage should open up a bit more, however, as teams must be aware of the passing threat with Manning. There is not even a guarantee that McGahee will be the starter for the whole year as Moreno is a capable back, though not on coach John Fox's good side as of now. McGahee also isn't getting any younger as he turns 31 this year with the age of 30 usually being the magic age when backs start to decline. A loss of carries and the potential of Moreno stealing the starting job make me very wary of McGahee as a dependable fantasy running back.
Sleeper: Jacob Tamme, TE
Tamme was Manning's backup tight end to Dwight Clark in Indianapolis. When Clark got injured in 2010, Tamme took over and finished the year with 631 yards and four touchdowns in eight starts. Now he will be the starter and already has chemistry with Manning which gives him a leg up on the other receiving options in Denver. His route running ability is something that will help him get more targets in a pass heavy offense. I will go out on a limb here and say that Tamme will finish in the top three tight ends for fantasy this year. Yes, top three, behind Jimmy Graham and the Gronk. Manning's offense is so heavily dependent on timing, which will allow Tamme to excel. I think he will give you the most bang for your buck out of any player in this upcoming fantasy season.
Bottom Line:
There are fantasy riches to be had in Denver this year. Manning boosts nearly every offensive player's value and should take some pressure off a very good Broncos defense. Now the offense has the ability to win games rather than the defense simply holding on until it was Tebow time like they did last year. There should be more rest for them, less three and outs, and more time for offensive players to rack up fantasy points. If you want value, Denver is the place to look this year.
Matty O.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: TBD
This section is reserved for players that you do not need to worry about if you draft them. Unfortunately Chiefs fans, there is no one on this team that possesses that quality. There are a few players on this team that have the potential to be fantasy studs, but as you will read later, they nearly all come with a risk. Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles are not impressing me this year.
Bust: Dwayne Bowe, WR
He will be drafted like a number one, high number two WR, but will finish as nothing better than a flex/WR3 player. Don't blame it on him though. If he gets the ball, his size and athleticism are up there with the best in the league. But that is a big if. Matt Cassel failed to reach a mere 200 yards in five of the eight games he played before breaking his hand in week 10. Pathetic. With Jamaal Charles back along with new free agent Peyton Hillis, expect the Chiefs to become a run first, ground and pound type team with their passes coming on third and long or off of play action. The blueprint for a bad season was evident towards the end of last year as Bowe finished in single digits 10 of the last 11 weeks of the season.
Sleeper: Peyton Hillis, RB
A disappointing season with the Browns last year aside, this is still a solid starting running back on most rosters. He gets the sleeper designation because of last year's decline in numbers coupled with the fact that he will not be listed as the starter with the honors going to Jamaal Charles. Fortunately for Hillis, ACL injuries, which Charles suffered last year, are not the easiest to come back from. Given Hillis' size, he will probably be the goal line back which should give you some valuable points if his yards are not there. With bad rushing defenses within the division (highest last year was San Diego at 20th overall in rush defense) and an offense that should run it an unusually high amount, feel free to take a flier on Hillis if your position needs are covered. He may just sneak into your starting line up.
Bottom Line:
Look for your running back strength here, and stay away from any of their receivers. Cases could be made for the likes of Jon Baldwin (WR) or Tony Moeaki (TE) but it would be wishful thinking rather than true reasons to have them occupy a spot on your fantasy team. On the other side of the ball, look for the Chiefs defense to be hit or miss. The good news: Eric Berry is back, Tamba Hali had a breakout year, and they drafted 346 lb. Dontari Poe. The bad news: lost stud corner Brandon Carr to my Cowboys, there is no guarantee Poe will be the answer, and they play potent offensive teams such as the Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, and some guy named Peyton Manning joined a team in their division (Broncos). Pick them up off waivers as a bye week fill in or matchup choice, but not as your starting D.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: Sebastian Janikowski, K, Darren McFadden, RB
What? A kicker as a stud player? For those that do not know, the Raiders have by far the best kicking game in the NFL with Janikowski doing the field goals and Shane Lechler doing the punts. He has a powerful leg and can drill them from 60+ which allows the coaching staff to let him try kicks from distances that other kickers do not get a chance to. While only finishing third among kickers for fantasy points, he did have six double digit games including a 23 point performance against the Bears. If the Raiders offense can be more consistent than last year, expect these numbers to go up.
Why is McFadden a stud for the Raiders but Charles was not one for the Chiefs even though they both have injury problems? For starters, McFadden is a better player than Charles when both are at 100%. He also does not have a player like Peyton Hillis behind him ready to vulture carries. That honor went to Michael Bush last year, but he is now playing for the Bears. Now the Raiders have a cluster of unproven backs behind McFadden that the coaching staff will not want to put their faith into. If healthy, he could be a top five back for fantasy as he racked up double digit points in all but one game he played last year (it was against Houston's tough run D) including a 29 point beat down of the Jet's D. I see a Michael Vick situation playing out here. He is so talented that you take him anyways, but just have a solid back to replace him if, or rather when, he gets injured.
Bust: All Raiders WRs
In their defense, all of them can play. Denarius Moore, Darius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Louis Murphy make up this mess of wide outs. None of them are that bad of options, it is just a consistency factor. Maybe it is just me, but I would rather take a player who puts up low double digit points nearly every week rather then someone who's points totals go 0, 6, 24, 1 which was Moore's points for a four week stretch last year. You are playing fantasy roulette with these guys as they are just as likely to go for 30 as they are for zero. Don't forget that Carson Palmer is the one throwing the ball, not the poster boy for a consistent quarterback either. If you don't mind the risk, I suppose Moore is the "safest" but you can do better.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
Although he is not the poster boy for a consistent quarterback, he is also not the poster boy for a terrible one. He started off his Raider's career with a negative fantasy points game which is unheard of for a quarterback. He rebounded strongly, however, with double digit points seven out of his last nine games although he only eclipsed 20 points once. Think of him as a Kyle Orton type who will manage the game and make a few big plays here and there. He came to Oakland in the middle of the season so expect him to have a better grasp of the playbook. McFadden's health will also be a factor as teams will stack the box if he is able to stay in top form. This will give Palmer more one on one matchups and mismatches for him to expose. If his top two wideouts (Moore and Heyward-Bey) can also stay healthy, expect Palmer to give you okay numbers as either a fill in, or even a starter if you loaded up on wide receivers and running backs early in your fantasy draft.
Bottom Line
Feast or famine should be the theme with the Raiders this year in fantasy and real life. Apart from their kicking game, there are questions on all fronts. Consistency and health will be an issue with this team all year long. If they can stay healthy, however, this could be a team stacked with players to help you get to the playoffs and beyond.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Ryan Matthews, RB, Antonio Gates, TE, Phillip Rivers, QB
Despite their solid numbers last year, I think all three players will have even better seasons this year. Matthews no longer has Mike Tolbert to steal carries and touchdowns from him, although his injury problems should give owners some hesitation. Despite that, he is a legitimate pass catcher out of the backfield and does not shy away from contact. He still finished in the top 10 for fantasy running backs with over 1000 yards last year despite only getting into the end zone six times. Look for him to get even more touches this year.
It seems like Gates has been playing for the Chargers forever, yet he is only 32. Injuries have worn on him, however, and the explosion is not quite what it used to be. Having said that, he has the best chemistry with Phillip Rivers among the pass catching targets, even when Vincent Jackson was there. His size makes him a matchup nightmare anywhere on the field, but especially in the red zone as he posted seven TDs last year. His yardage numbers leave some to be desired, but if you miss out on the elite crop of tight ends, don't feel bad taking Gates as he should outplay his draft position.
What a season for Rivers last year. 20 interceptions was a career high for him and unacceptable for a number one fantasy quarterback. He no longer has Vincent Jackson, his top wide receiver for the past few years. So what good is there? Even though the Chargers will want to include Matthews more in the offense this year, this should include passing plays such as screens which will get Rivers stats as well. Malcom Floyd is no slouch, Robert Meachem held his own in New Orleans, Eddie Royal is a dependable slot guy, and Vincent Brown showed flashes last year and may sneak into the starting role if injuries plague Floyd and Meachem like they have in the past. I'm actually high on Rivers this year as I do not think he will crack the top five fantasy quarterbacks but will definitely be top ten and will be drafted lower than he should be.
Bust: All Chargers WRs
Similar to the Raiders, there is no clear number one receiver. They all have the skill, but when they go off is anyone's guess. They will still have to contend with Gates and Matthews for touches and Floyd no longer has Jackson to draw away double coverages. Like the Raider's receivers, draft them or pick them up off waivers with risk but try to find more proven options.
Sleeper: Ronnie Brown, RB
That's right. The guy the Eagles tried to trade last year and the one that made this outrageous mistake last year. Unfortunately, I see no other sleepers on this roster. Brown's value is dependent on Matthews's health. They will not use Brown like Tolbert, so he will not see that many carries as long as Matthews is the starter. Matthews has been an injury waiting to happen for his entire career, however, so the chance could be there for Brown. He won't get drafted so this will be a wait and see type thing, but don't forget about him on waivers if Matthews falters play wise or health wise.
Bottom Line:
This Chargers team will be much better than last year's version and should have their three studs (Rivers, Matthews ,Gates) be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for you. A daunting stretch to end the season with games at Denver, against Baltimore and Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, against Carolina, and at New York in Week 16 (when most fantasy championship games are) should give you a bit of worry, but nothing too major. Apart from their stars, however, avoid players on this team. That Ronnie Brown sleeper is an enormous reach and the other players are unproven.
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Eric Decker, WR
I am one of the people that do not think Manning will return to form. Having said that, his form was so good that a drop off from that is still great for a fantasy quarterback. His neck injury from last year is still a concern, but Denver's offensive line is solid and he will have Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno to hand the ball off to and take some pressure off. While his injury may have affected his movement and physical abilities, he remains one of the best readers and callers of the game which will make every offensive player in Denver better. Draft him as your starting quarterback with confidence.
Manning's arrival helps Thomas and Decker the most. Both are supreme talents whose stats were not as high due to Tim Tebow and the offense Denver ran last year. Now they get a precision passer who likes to sling the ball around. Decker is the better route runner of the two and was a safety valve for Tebow last year racking up 612 yards and eight touchdowns. Thomas was not even supposed to play last year after injuring his achilles, but got playing time in week 7. It took him some time, but eventually he posted impressive numbers with games of 26, 13, and 11 in a row. This doesn't even include his monster performance in Denver's first round playoff game including this memorable catch to end the game. Tebow gets credit for the play, but Thomas was the one who threw a nasty stiff arm and ran 60 yards for the score. His athleticism makes him a tantalizing wide receiver for fantasy as I think him, and possibly Decker, could be top 20 receivers this year with Thomas even making the top 10. That's how good he is and how precise Manning is.
Bust: Willis McGahee, RB
The Manning acquisition hurts McGahee the most. Gone are the days of read options and high touches for McGahee as the offense is no longer a Tebow offense. The line of scrimmage should open up a bit more, however, as teams must be aware of the passing threat with Manning. There is not even a guarantee that McGahee will be the starter for the whole year as Moreno is a capable back, though not on coach John Fox's good side as of now. McGahee also isn't getting any younger as he turns 31 this year with the age of 30 usually being the magic age when backs start to decline. A loss of carries and the potential of Moreno stealing the starting job make me very wary of McGahee as a dependable fantasy running back.
Sleeper: Jacob Tamme, TE
Tamme was Manning's backup tight end to Dwight Clark in Indianapolis. When Clark got injured in 2010, Tamme took over and finished the year with 631 yards and four touchdowns in eight starts. Now he will be the starter and already has chemistry with Manning which gives him a leg up on the other receiving options in Denver. His route running ability is something that will help him get more targets in a pass heavy offense. I will go out on a limb here and say that Tamme will finish in the top three tight ends for fantasy this year. Yes, top three, behind Jimmy Graham and the Gronk. Manning's offense is so heavily dependent on timing, which will allow Tamme to excel. I think he will give you the most bang for your buck out of any player in this upcoming fantasy season.
Bottom Line:
There are fantasy riches to be had in Denver this year. Manning boosts nearly every offensive player's value and should take some pressure off a very good Broncos defense. Now the offense has the ability to win games rather than the defense simply holding on until it was Tebow time like they did last year. There should be more rest for them, less three and outs, and more time for offensive players to rack up fantasy points. If you want value, Denver is the place to look this year.
Matty O.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Fantasy Breakdown: NFC West
Here is part one of a series of posts about the upcoming fantasy football season. I love playing it and it gets you even more interested in football than you normally would. Join a league if you haven't yet and thank me later. Also, make sure it has at least 10 teams. 8 team league teams are too stacked and require less skill in my opinion. So if you are stuck at 8, get some friends. This will be a division by division and team by team breakdown of fantasy players with studs, a sleeper, and bust for each. I'll go NFC West, AFC West, NFC North, AFC North, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East. Not sure about specific dates, but it should be done in time for your fantasy draft unless you are having it outrageously early. For those newbies to the sport, you can also check out Matthew Berry or Christopher Harris over on ESPN. Their stuff is usually insightful and accurate.
St. Louis Rams
Studs: Steven Jackson, RB
Probably the only thing good about the 2-14 Rams last year was Jackson. He still ran for 1,145 yards and six total touchdowns. While the six touchdowns might not be impressive, he was running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. On top of that, he has no real competition for his job and should receive a significant amount of carries. He is a solid number two, borderline number one back in most leagues, and gets the porous Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks defense to end the season during the fantasy playoffs.
Bust: Steven Jackson, RB
This selection is mainly because no one else on this team did anything to warrant bust status for this year. That being said, there are some concerns with Jackson. Being the workhorse of the offense has got to take a toll on a player at some point and Jackson will be 29 this season. He suffered a broken hand and injured quadriceps last year, but still played. It speaks to his toughness but should give owners concern. While it is good that he is the man in St. Louis, it also means that teams will stack the box against the Rams and force quarterback Sam Bradford to beat them. Jackson is a great runner, but the battle up front could turn into a losing numbers game for the Rams real quick. Having to face San Francisco twice, the Jets, and Bears doesn't help either.
Sleeper: Michael Hoomanawanui, TE
No, I did not fall asleep on my keyboard. That is the real last name of University of Illinois alumnus Michael Hoomanawanui. I, along with some experts, predicted him to have a breakout year last year resulting in me drafting him (thankfully I pulled off a draft day trade for Rob Gronkowski). Injuries limited his play last year as he wound up with a mere 83 yards and no touchdowns. Sam Bradford also only appeared in 10 games last year. Getting chemistry with his starting quarterback should lead to more opportunities for the 6'4" 263lb tight end. If you miss out on the likes of The Gronk or Jimmy Graham, look to steal this guy in the draft.
Bottom Line:
Honestly, I would avoid all Rams if I could. Both Jackson and Hoomanawanui have potential, but their ceiling is limited by the poor collective play of their team. They did very little in the draft to help their offensive line, instead focusing on the defensive side of the ball. With an improved defense they might get the ball more, but not enough to make a significant difference.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB
Lynch, or Beastmode, went all Beastmode towards the end of last year and finished with twelve rushing touchdowns, including rushing for 107 yards and a score against the vaunted 49ers defense. Similar to Jackson, he really has no one to compete with him for carries barring injury. It is still to be determined what will come of his DUI this July, but if he is not suspended by the league, he instantly becomes a number one back. Expect to see a lot of carries from Lynch as well with uncertainty at quarterback at the moment.
Bust: Matt Flynn, QB
Even though he may not even be the starter come Week 1, I think that with the price they paid for him and the poor play of Tavaris Jackson, that he will eventually get the start. Unfortunately, I do not think he will do much with it. One of the last memories people have of Flynn was his shootout with the Lions on the last day of the season last year. He threw to the tune of 480 yards and six TDs. Nice. But it's just one game. There is a Kevin Kolb feel to this scenario which did not turn out well for the Arizona Cardinals last year. He has certainly shown that he has the skills to be a solid fantasy quarterback, but with a new offense I would be wary about buying into the hype.
Sleeper: Seattle's Defense/Special Teams
After a rough start to last year, this defense came on strong believe it or not. Heck, they finished the year on my team after I picked them up off waivers. Their last seven games of the year they averaged 13.7 fantasy points (ESPN Standard Scoring) including a 29 point explosion against the Bears. They even put up 16 against the Super Bowl Champion Giants in Week 5. They used their first two picks on defensive players although many say that first rounder Bruce Irvin was a reach. So what? If he performs then they got who they needed to pick. A solid front seven backed up by underrated Earl Thomas at safety makes this a formidable group. Don't forget about Leon Washington too. His explosiveness could help get you special teams touchdowns anytime he touches the ball.
Bottom Line:
The uncertainty at quarterback makes me nervous about that position and any of their wide receivers, including Sidney Rice who was a close second for sleeper. That situation may clear itself up closer to Week 1, but not in time for most drafts. I truly would push for Seattle's defense. This is a highly underrated group that might not get the most points in fantasy, but will get you more value for where you draft them. Let others reach for the 49ers or Steelers D. Wait to grab this one late and cash in.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
One of the best at his position, Fitzgerald continued his dominance last year catching eight TD passes and racking up 80 receptions for 1411 yards...and that was when his quarterback or quarterbacks had a bad year. His route running and hands make him a reliable target and he consistently puts up the numbers you need a number one WR to make. Expect him to be the number two or three WR off the board behind Calvin Johnson and perhaps Andre Johnson.
Bust: Beanie Wells, RB
A boom or bust kind of guy throughout his career, I think this is the year there is no boom at all. His knee is being worn down and seems to always have a questionable tag attached to it. While he did rush for 1047 yards and 10 TDs in 2011, he also posted games of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and two zeroes. Ouch. The Cardinals also have Ryan Williams, who missed all of last year after an injury in the preseason. Williams, a highly touted prospect out of Virginia Tech, could challenge for the starting job if he is healthy as well. Some experts were saying he was going to be the man in the Cardinals backfield last year, so it's quite possible he could steal some carries from Wells.
Sleeper: Malcolm Floyd, WR
I'm usually skeptical about rookie players making fantasy impacts, and I am not too fond of the University of Notre Dame. But this player is special. He excelled at his position in college on a mediocre team and set school records for career receptions, 100 yd. games, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. Now he gets the chance to play alongside Fitzgerald and will most likely face single coverage, especially early in the season when teams would rather see if a rookie can beat them than Fitzgerald. I could see this developing into a situation back when the Cardinals had Anquan Boldin and he put up exceptional numbers because you could not cover one guy. Floyd has the skill set to be that player depending on the play of his quarterback(s).
Bottom Line:
Expect an improved Cardinals team this year which means improved value in Cardinals players. Now that Kolb has a season under his belt and a true off season to become familiar with the playbook, expect the passing game to open up. I would buy into Floyd and Fitzgerald and maybe even an Early Doucet or Andre Roberts as a bench/bye week fill in. Who knows? Maybe this is the year that Kolb performs like everyone thought he should and he becomes a viable fantasy option.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Defense/Special Teams, Vernon Davis, TE
Where's Frank Gore on this list you ask? I'll get to that in the bust/bottom line section so settle down. We all know about the 49ers defense. Tough, intimidating, and immovable. All of their starters return from a defense that finished first in defensive points despite only scoring one defensive TD all year. Imagine if or should i say when they get them. Double digit points every week isn't that outrageous for this group. Davis, meanwhile, came on strong last year after being kept in check by the inconsistent play of Alex Smith as well as scheming him for more blocking assignments. He is still one of the top five tight ends in the NFL and is probably at his most steal-able in a draft as he has been due to his disappointing season last year. If selected, you'll get a good route runner and a strong, physical player with soft hands.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
Injuries. This is what has killed Gore for his whole career as well as his fantasy owners. The 49er front office was clearly concerned as well as they picked up Brandon Jacobs in free agency and drafted LaMichael James in the second round of this year's draft. Throw in Kendall Hunter who got 112 carries last year, and you have a talented, but crowded backfield. While Gore might stay healthy all year, I could definitely see a scenario where his carries are cut significantly resulting in none of these backs being a solid fantasy option. An injury to one or two of these guys could open it up for the others as I think all are capable of putting up good numbers. Unfortunately I don't think the opportunities will be there for Gore, especially based on where he will be drafted.
Sleeper: Randy Moss, WR
Remember, sleeper means the most value for where a player is drafted. Do I think Moss will post a Pro Bowl type season? No. I actually think it is very possible he doesn't even lead his team in yards or receptions. Despite this, I expect an above average real life and fantasy season from Moss. Defenses will have to scheme for Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Davis, and new draftee A.J. Jenkins. This will take some pressure off Moss and give him some one on ones, an area that he has been so dominant at during his career. Even though his best days are behind him, he could provide some real value or a player to slap onto a trade to make it more enticing, and should be available in the late rounds or off waivers.
Bottom Line:
As good as this team is, I sense a lot of fantasy uncertainty. Coach Jim Harbaugh likes to play a team game. That's great for real life, but not so much for fantasy. The skill positions on this team are too crowded. Running back is dependent on Gore's knee problems and who knows who will go off for the 49ers in their wide receiving corps. It is easy to say that Gore and Crabtree should be the most dangerous offensive weapons. But are they consistent enough? No. Is it that crazy to think Manningham could get the most fantasy points among these receivers any given week? No. Stick with the defense. As unpredictable as they are, this is one of those special defenses that only comes around once in a while. Unless someone takes them in the first three rounds, I honestly do not think it would be a reach. That's how good they are.
Hope you enjoyed this analysis. Remember, this is just my opinion. Articles like this and the ones that Berry and Harris write should only be used to enforce wavering opinions about certain players. We are not to blame for your failed season. Research, don't be a rankings slave, and watch The League. It's on FX, already through 3 seasons and I think is on Netflix.
Matty O
Also, for reference
2011 - First Place Regular Season, Second Place Playoffs
2010 - Sixth Place Regular Season
2009 - Third Place Regular Season and Playoffs
2008 - First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs
St. Louis Rams
Studs: Steven Jackson, RB
Probably the only thing good about the 2-14 Rams last year was Jackson. He still ran for 1,145 yards and six total touchdowns. While the six touchdowns might not be impressive, he was running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. On top of that, he has no real competition for his job and should receive a significant amount of carries. He is a solid number two, borderline number one back in most leagues, and gets the porous Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks defense to end the season during the fantasy playoffs.
Bust: Steven Jackson, RB
This selection is mainly because no one else on this team did anything to warrant bust status for this year. That being said, there are some concerns with Jackson. Being the workhorse of the offense has got to take a toll on a player at some point and Jackson will be 29 this season. He suffered a broken hand and injured quadriceps last year, but still played. It speaks to his toughness but should give owners concern. While it is good that he is the man in St. Louis, it also means that teams will stack the box against the Rams and force quarterback Sam Bradford to beat them. Jackson is a great runner, but the battle up front could turn into a losing numbers game for the Rams real quick. Having to face San Francisco twice, the Jets, and Bears doesn't help either.
Sleeper: Michael Hoomanawanui, TE
No, I did not fall asleep on my keyboard. That is the real last name of University of Illinois alumnus Michael Hoomanawanui. I, along with some experts, predicted him to have a breakout year last year resulting in me drafting him (thankfully I pulled off a draft day trade for Rob Gronkowski). Injuries limited his play last year as he wound up with a mere 83 yards and no touchdowns. Sam Bradford also only appeared in 10 games last year. Getting chemistry with his starting quarterback should lead to more opportunities for the 6'4" 263lb tight end. If you miss out on the likes of The Gronk or Jimmy Graham, look to steal this guy in the draft.
Bottom Line:
Honestly, I would avoid all Rams if I could. Both Jackson and Hoomanawanui have potential, but their ceiling is limited by the poor collective play of their team. They did very little in the draft to help their offensive line, instead focusing on the defensive side of the ball. With an improved defense they might get the ball more, but not enough to make a significant difference.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB
Lynch, or Beastmode, went all Beastmode towards the end of last year and finished with twelve rushing touchdowns, including rushing for 107 yards and a score against the vaunted 49ers defense. Similar to Jackson, he really has no one to compete with him for carries barring injury. It is still to be determined what will come of his DUI this July, but if he is not suspended by the league, he instantly becomes a number one back. Expect to see a lot of carries from Lynch as well with uncertainty at quarterback at the moment.
Bust: Matt Flynn, QB
Even though he may not even be the starter come Week 1, I think that with the price they paid for him and the poor play of Tavaris Jackson, that he will eventually get the start. Unfortunately, I do not think he will do much with it. One of the last memories people have of Flynn was his shootout with the Lions on the last day of the season last year. He threw to the tune of 480 yards and six TDs. Nice. But it's just one game. There is a Kevin Kolb feel to this scenario which did not turn out well for the Arizona Cardinals last year. He has certainly shown that he has the skills to be a solid fantasy quarterback, but with a new offense I would be wary about buying into the hype.
Sleeper: Seattle's Defense/Special Teams
After a rough start to last year, this defense came on strong believe it or not. Heck, they finished the year on my team after I picked them up off waivers. Their last seven games of the year they averaged 13.7 fantasy points (ESPN Standard Scoring) including a 29 point explosion against the Bears. They even put up 16 against the Super Bowl Champion Giants in Week 5. They used their first two picks on defensive players although many say that first rounder Bruce Irvin was a reach. So what? If he performs then they got who they needed to pick. A solid front seven backed up by underrated Earl Thomas at safety makes this a formidable group. Don't forget about Leon Washington too. His explosiveness could help get you special teams touchdowns anytime he touches the ball.
Bottom Line:
The uncertainty at quarterback makes me nervous about that position and any of their wide receivers, including Sidney Rice who was a close second for sleeper. That situation may clear itself up closer to Week 1, but not in time for most drafts. I truly would push for Seattle's defense. This is a highly underrated group that might not get the most points in fantasy, but will get you more value for where you draft them. Let others reach for the 49ers or Steelers D. Wait to grab this one late and cash in.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
One of the best at his position, Fitzgerald continued his dominance last year catching eight TD passes and racking up 80 receptions for 1411 yards...and that was when his quarterback or quarterbacks had a bad year. His route running and hands make him a reliable target and he consistently puts up the numbers you need a number one WR to make. Expect him to be the number two or three WR off the board behind Calvin Johnson and perhaps Andre Johnson.
Bust: Beanie Wells, RB
A boom or bust kind of guy throughout his career, I think this is the year there is no boom at all. His knee is being worn down and seems to always have a questionable tag attached to it. While he did rush for 1047 yards and 10 TDs in 2011, he also posted games of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and two zeroes. Ouch. The Cardinals also have Ryan Williams, who missed all of last year after an injury in the preseason. Williams, a highly touted prospect out of Virginia Tech, could challenge for the starting job if he is healthy as well. Some experts were saying he was going to be the man in the Cardinals backfield last year, so it's quite possible he could steal some carries from Wells.
Sleeper: Malcolm Floyd, WR
I'm usually skeptical about rookie players making fantasy impacts, and I am not too fond of the University of Notre Dame. But this player is special. He excelled at his position in college on a mediocre team and set school records for career receptions, 100 yd. games, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. Now he gets the chance to play alongside Fitzgerald and will most likely face single coverage, especially early in the season when teams would rather see if a rookie can beat them than Fitzgerald. I could see this developing into a situation back when the Cardinals had Anquan Boldin and he put up exceptional numbers because you could not cover one guy. Floyd has the skill set to be that player depending on the play of his quarterback(s).
Bottom Line:
Expect an improved Cardinals team this year which means improved value in Cardinals players. Now that Kolb has a season under his belt and a true off season to become familiar with the playbook, expect the passing game to open up. I would buy into Floyd and Fitzgerald and maybe even an Early Doucet or Andre Roberts as a bench/bye week fill in. Who knows? Maybe this is the year that Kolb performs like everyone thought he should and he becomes a viable fantasy option.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Defense/Special Teams, Vernon Davis, TE
Where's Frank Gore on this list you ask? I'll get to that in the bust/bottom line section so settle down. We all know about the 49ers defense. Tough, intimidating, and immovable. All of their starters return from a defense that finished first in defensive points despite only scoring one defensive TD all year. Imagine if or should i say when they get them. Double digit points every week isn't that outrageous for this group. Davis, meanwhile, came on strong last year after being kept in check by the inconsistent play of Alex Smith as well as scheming him for more blocking assignments. He is still one of the top five tight ends in the NFL and is probably at his most steal-able in a draft as he has been due to his disappointing season last year. If selected, you'll get a good route runner and a strong, physical player with soft hands.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
Injuries. This is what has killed Gore for his whole career as well as his fantasy owners. The 49er front office was clearly concerned as well as they picked up Brandon Jacobs in free agency and drafted LaMichael James in the second round of this year's draft. Throw in Kendall Hunter who got 112 carries last year, and you have a talented, but crowded backfield. While Gore might stay healthy all year, I could definitely see a scenario where his carries are cut significantly resulting in none of these backs being a solid fantasy option. An injury to one or two of these guys could open it up for the others as I think all are capable of putting up good numbers. Unfortunately I don't think the opportunities will be there for Gore, especially based on where he will be drafted.
Sleeper: Randy Moss, WR
Remember, sleeper means the most value for where a player is drafted. Do I think Moss will post a Pro Bowl type season? No. I actually think it is very possible he doesn't even lead his team in yards or receptions. Despite this, I expect an above average real life and fantasy season from Moss. Defenses will have to scheme for Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Davis, and new draftee A.J. Jenkins. This will take some pressure off Moss and give him some one on ones, an area that he has been so dominant at during his career. Even though his best days are behind him, he could provide some real value or a player to slap onto a trade to make it more enticing, and should be available in the late rounds or off waivers.
Bottom Line:
As good as this team is, I sense a lot of fantasy uncertainty. Coach Jim Harbaugh likes to play a team game. That's great for real life, but not so much for fantasy. The skill positions on this team are too crowded. Running back is dependent on Gore's knee problems and who knows who will go off for the 49ers in their wide receiving corps. It is easy to say that Gore and Crabtree should be the most dangerous offensive weapons. But are they consistent enough? No. Is it that crazy to think Manningham could get the most fantasy points among these receivers any given week? No. Stick with the defense. As unpredictable as they are, this is one of those special defenses that only comes around once in a while. Unless someone takes them in the first three rounds, I honestly do not think it would be a reach. That's how good they are.
Hope you enjoyed this analysis. Remember, this is just my opinion. Articles like this and the ones that Berry and Harris write should only be used to enforce wavering opinions about certain players. We are not to blame for your failed season. Research, don't be a rankings slave, and watch The League. It's on FX, already through 3 seasons and I think is on Netflix.
Matty O
Also, for reference
2011 - First Place Regular Season, Second Place Playoffs
2010 - Sixth Place Regular Season
2009 - Third Place Regular Season and Playoffs
2008 - First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Relationship Between Trash Talk and Respect for Opponent
In case you didn't hear, Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen do not like each other very much. Prior to their anticipated rematch yesterday night at UFC 148, each had thrown their share of insults and threats at each other. This was the norm for Sonnen, but uncharacteristic for Silva who is usually soft spoken and speaks nothing of respect for his opponent. He went so far as to get physical and threw a shoulder at Sonnen during the weigh ins for the fight. Sonnen dominated their first fight until he tapped to a triangle choke towards the end of the last round. Since then he has questioned Silva's skill and called him out after UFC 136 by telling him he "absolutely sucked" to the whole audience in attendance and watching at home. I've been a fan of the UFC for some time now and I had not seen this much true hatred between two fighters. Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans or Matt Hughes and Matt Serra would be the closest I have seen, but this one already had an epic first fight as well as the perceived invincibility of Anderson Silva on the line.
The fight itself, however, displayed the fine line between trash talking and respecting the skill of your opponent. Sonnen fought exactly how I expected him to. Aggressive, angry. And it worked, at first. He scored a take down early in the fight and maintained a dominant position for most of the first round. It actually looked quite similar to their first fight which, as a Silva fan, had me a bit worried. The second round was more of the same as Sonnen immediately closed the distance between him and Silva to eliminate Silva's long limbs and just leaned on him against the cage. After one such occasion, they broke apart and Sonnen saw what he thought was an opening. What he did next, I cannot completely attribute to all his talk before the fight, but it was a wildly aggressive move. Sonnen, known for his wrestling, threw a wild spinning backfist that really did not even come close to hitting Silva. His momentum caused him to stumble and fall to the ground. Some may see it differently, but for one moment it looked like Chael underestimated Silva and went out of his game plan to punish him.
Once Sonnen missed, Silva showed not only why he is the best pound for pound fighter in MMA, but also how to keep your emotions in check to achieve your best performance output in what you are doing. Silva could have jumped all over Sonnen if he wanted to. He could have thrown wildly and truly try to break his arms and legs as he vowed to do. Instead, he paused for a second, measured his opponent, and threw a well placed knee to the sternum (although it looked like his face in real time, which may have been illegal). He then got on top of Sonnen and began throwing well placed punches with Sonnen swinging wildly. Sonnen got to his feet momentarily only to be dropped by a well placed jab. Seconds later the fight was stopped and Silva retained his title. What I found most amazing was Silva's control. I expected him to come out doing something crazy or be highly aggressive. Instead, everything was very calculated. Even in the first round when he was on his back, he showed good wrist control and did not try anything risky to try and punish Sonnen at the risk of being submitted or knocked out himself. Silva could have easily talked plenty more trash after the fight with a 2-0 record against Sonnen, but went back to being his normal self and was respectful to Chael and asked the audience in attendance to not boo Sonnen.
From personal experience, staying within yourself and controlling your emotions is very hard to do when trash talk is being said to you. Watching the fight as an Anderson Silva fan, I was glad he won but disappointed that Sonnen did not get a complete ass whooping and bloodied up a bit, as sadist as that sounds. But I'm sure that anyone that is reading this that has played sports has felt that way about someone before. Someone keeps talking trash and, although you know you have to stay focused on the task at hand, on the side you want to knock this person out or shut him/her up. This is when you start doing uncharacteristic things (Sonnen back fist). In team sports it usually winds up being someone over pursuing to try and get said trash talker at the expense of being out of position and leaving their team mates out to dry or getting a stupid penalty. When I played hockey there was one game where this guy would not shut up. I gave him a little slash on the leg during play and we had a little exchange along the lines of: Him: "Slash me again b***h" Me: "Alright f****r." I proceeded to slash him right in front of the ref as we were getting ready for a face off. I got kicked out of the game and quite a talking to from the person in charge of our league. I do get heated at anything competitive, but that was completely out of character for me. A certain broom ball game with a certain organization this past spring would be another example of players boiling over (only some readers will get this reference).
On the flip side, you have the trash talkers. Watch this segement on NBA TV if you have the time as some NBA greats talk about the nature or art of trash talking. One point Reggie Miller brings up is that he used it to fire himself up. It gets some players in the zone so to speak and I can see how that is the case. It could definitely be a confidence booster especially if you manage to break the other person/team or get inside their heads. There is one thing however, that I think could have a negative impact on trash talkers. That is that now you must live up to your talk. Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan, these were players that could back up what they said. That is why you really won't see bad players trash talking. And if you do, it is almost seen as a joke. To go back to Silva and Sonnen, before they fought the first time I honestly had no idea who Chael Sonnen was. I thought he was just another fighter for Silva to dominate, yet he was running his mouth like he was the greatest fighter to ever walk the planet. Although he proved himself a worthy opponent in the first fight and during the first round in their second fight, he had yet to prove it and came off looking dumb in my opinion.
The most embarrassing instance I've seen of trash talking making you look dumb was the Seahawks vs the Packers in the 2003 Wild Card Playoff game. The Seahawks win the coin toss and Matt Hasselbeck, their quarterback, tells the ref, "we want the ball and we're going to score," which just happened to be picked up by the ref's mic and projected to the Packer faithful in attendance. To his credit, that takes some huevos but not a lot of brains. Hasselbeck actually did wind up throwing the game winning touchdown, but his pass was an interception returned by the Packers that sent the Seahawks packing and eliminated them from the playoffs. He looked like a dope and was probably the laughing stock of Green Bay for years. But making a claim like that, regardless of what the players say, has to have some kind of effect on you. When you lose the talk caused pressure to perform, when you win the talk helped focus you and rattle your opponent. Effective trash talk is all based on perception but the problem is that once the words start flying, the only acceptable outcome if winning. If not, you just look like an arrogant asshole that will be ridiculed and mocked by the general public.
So should you talk trash? Sure. Use it as a means to psyche yourself up or your opponent out. Just remember that certain opponent is trying to achieve the same thing you are but only one can reach it. And they would not hesitate for a second to beat you at that game, shut you up, and walk home the winner while the only thing left to trash talk is yourself.
The fight itself, however, displayed the fine line between trash talking and respecting the skill of your opponent. Sonnen fought exactly how I expected him to. Aggressive, angry. And it worked, at first. He scored a take down early in the fight and maintained a dominant position for most of the first round. It actually looked quite similar to their first fight which, as a Silva fan, had me a bit worried. The second round was more of the same as Sonnen immediately closed the distance between him and Silva to eliminate Silva's long limbs and just leaned on him against the cage. After one such occasion, they broke apart and Sonnen saw what he thought was an opening. What he did next, I cannot completely attribute to all his talk before the fight, but it was a wildly aggressive move. Sonnen, known for his wrestling, threw a wild spinning backfist that really did not even come close to hitting Silva. His momentum caused him to stumble and fall to the ground. Some may see it differently, but for one moment it looked like Chael underestimated Silva and went out of his game plan to punish him.
Once Sonnen missed, Silva showed not only why he is the best pound for pound fighter in MMA, but also how to keep your emotions in check to achieve your best performance output in what you are doing. Silva could have jumped all over Sonnen if he wanted to. He could have thrown wildly and truly try to break his arms and legs as he vowed to do. Instead, he paused for a second, measured his opponent, and threw a well placed knee to the sternum (although it looked like his face in real time, which may have been illegal). He then got on top of Sonnen and began throwing well placed punches with Sonnen swinging wildly. Sonnen got to his feet momentarily only to be dropped by a well placed jab. Seconds later the fight was stopped and Silva retained his title. What I found most amazing was Silva's control. I expected him to come out doing something crazy or be highly aggressive. Instead, everything was very calculated. Even in the first round when he was on his back, he showed good wrist control and did not try anything risky to try and punish Sonnen at the risk of being submitted or knocked out himself. Silva could have easily talked plenty more trash after the fight with a 2-0 record against Sonnen, but went back to being his normal self and was respectful to Chael and asked the audience in attendance to not boo Sonnen.
From personal experience, staying within yourself and controlling your emotions is very hard to do when trash talk is being said to you. Watching the fight as an Anderson Silva fan, I was glad he won but disappointed that Sonnen did not get a complete ass whooping and bloodied up a bit, as sadist as that sounds. But I'm sure that anyone that is reading this that has played sports has felt that way about someone before. Someone keeps talking trash and, although you know you have to stay focused on the task at hand, on the side you want to knock this person out or shut him/her up. This is when you start doing uncharacteristic things (Sonnen back fist). In team sports it usually winds up being someone over pursuing to try and get said trash talker at the expense of being out of position and leaving their team mates out to dry or getting a stupid penalty. When I played hockey there was one game where this guy would not shut up. I gave him a little slash on the leg during play and we had a little exchange along the lines of: Him: "Slash me again b***h" Me: "Alright f****r." I proceeded to slash him right in front of the ref as we were getting ready for a face off. I got kicked out of the game and quite a talking to from the person in charge of our league. I do get heated at anything competitive, but that was completely out of character for me. A certain broom ball game with a certain organization this past spring would be another example of players boiling over (only some readers will get this reference).
On the flip side, you have the trash talkers. Watch this segement on NBA TV if you have the time as some NBA greats talk about the nature or art of trash talking. One point Reggie Miller brings up is that he used it to fire himself up. It gets some players in the zone so to speak and I can see how that is the case. It could definitely be a confidence booster especially if you manage to break the other person/team or get inside their heads. There is one thing however, that I think could have a negative impact on trash talkers. That is that now you must live up to your talk. Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan, these were players that could back up what they said. That is why you really won't see bad players trash talking. And if you do, it is almost seen as a joke. To go back to Silva and Sonnen, before they fought the first time I honestly had no idea who Chael Sonnen was. I thought he was just another fighter for Silva to dominate, yet he was running his mouth like he was the greatest fighter to ever walk the planet. Although he proved himself a worthy opponent in the first fight and during the first round in their second fight, he had yet to prove it and came off looking dumb in my opinion.
The most embarrassing instance I've seen of trash talking making you look dumb was the Seahawks vs the Packers in the 2003 Wild Card Playoff game. The Seahawks win the coin toss and Matt Hasselbeck, their quarterback, tells the ref, "we want the ball and we're going to score," which just happened to be picked up by the ref's mic and projected to the Packer faithful in attendance. To his credit, that takes some huevos but not a lot of brains. Hasselbeck actually did wind up throwing the game winning touchdown, but his pass was an interception returned by the Packers that sent the Seahawks packing and eliminated them from the playoffs. He looked like a dope and was probably the laughing stock of Green Bay for years. But making a claim like that, regardless of what the players say, has to have some kind of effect on you. When you lose the talk caused pressure to perform, when you win the talk helped focus you and rattle your opponent. Effective trash talk is all based on perception but the problem is that once the words start flying, the only acceptable outcome if winning. If not, you just look like an arrogant asshole that will be ridiculed and mocked by the general public.
So should you talk trash? Sure. Use it as a means to psyche yourself up or your opponent out. Just remember that certain opponent is trying to achieve the same thing you are but only one can reach it. And they would not hesitate for a second to beat you at that game, shut you up, and walk home the winner while the only thing left to trash talk is yourself.
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