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Sunday, July 13, 2014

Six Sunday Summaries (NBA 2014 Free Agent Edition)

The King Returns
Finally, LeBron is coming back to where it all began.  After four years with the Heat, where he was arguably the most hated figure in sports outside of South Beach, LeBron became one of the most liked sports figures again by returning to Cleveland.  I've been saying it from the start, and I think LeBron finally realized it too, that winning a single title in Cleveland will mean more than 20 titles in Miami.  He is beloved there, in a city where their sports teams have either not been very good, or been bitten with bad luck in the postseason.  Bringing a title to Cleveland would be like a Chicago born pitcher bringing a World Series title to the Cubs.  Winning 20 with the Yankees wouldn't compare to just one for the hometown team.

As far as basketball goes, it instantly makes the Cavs a contender in the East, if not the favorite.  Certainly Chicago, Indiana, New York, and possibly Washington will have something to say about that, but just consider the team that LeBron took to the Finals back in 2007.  The other starters were Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Sasha Pavlovic, and Larry Hughes.  If that group can make it to the Finals, then the current roster with Kyrie Irving, Anthony Bennett, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and new draft pick Andrew Wiggins have to be a shoe in for a top two seed.  If Rose gets injured again (knock on every wood surface in sight), then the Cavs should be the undisputed favorite in the East.  I think that with the youth of all these teams that the East could become a lot more competitive than people think with the 76ers being legitimate contenders in about three years.

The only downside I see to this move, and something that will be very interesting to see develop, is what happens if he doesn't find success.  I expect them to make the playoffs every year he's there, so I'm not talking about them having a losing record (not going to happen).  But what if they continuously lose in the first round or Eastern Conference Semis?  What if LeBron plays out the entire rest of his career there and they don't win a ring?  He already had trouble trying to get big name free agents to leave bigger markets to come to Cleveland.  I just wonder how the city will react to a scenario like that.  How long of a leash will he have in Cleveland before the fans turn on him?  I'm guessing that they'll stick with him through thick and thin, but after winning back to back titles in Miami, the city of Cleveland will be wanting at least one ring before it's all said and done. 

The Curious Case Of Chris Bosh
Bosh probably had the most puzzling free agent summer.  Once the rumblings started of LeBron going back to Cleveland, and especially when it became a reality, it looked as though Bosh was headed to the Houston Rockets.  It made perfect sense as Bosh was from Texas and would get to play with Dwight Howard and James Harden on a legitimate contender out West.  Without LeBron, the Heat seemed destined for becoming a cellar dwelling team like they were before the Big 3 Era and after Shaq left.  Instead, Bosh decided to go back to South Beach to play with Dwayne Wade minus LeBron.  This is simply puzzling.

Perhaps he sees the East as easier to get through even on Miami versus the road it would take to get through the West in Houston.  Maybe he's fallen so in love with the area that he would rather stay in Miami than move somewhere else.  Whatever the reason, I don't think it will work out for either party.  I think Bosh will be extremely disappointed in his choice as soon as a few months from now.  The Rockets were really banking on Bosh joining as it looked like he was going to, so they really didn't make any other big splashes in free agency.  Now they're left with the same squad that lost to the Blazers in the first round last year, and might even lose Chandler Parsons.  I think the Rockets see a bit of a drop off this year and the Heat lose in the first round as a seven seed in the East.

'Melo Stays On Broadway
Similar to Bosh, I didn't really understand this decision from a basketball standpoint.  Obviously if Melo were to come to the Bulls, he would have to take an extremely significant pay cut.  Still, he's been getting paid since his days in Denver, but is in real danger of having a title-less career.  If his legacy is above all else, then the Bulls had to have been a no brainer.  The Knicks made it interesting signing the Zen Master Phil Jackson to run the team with Derrick Fisher as coach, but their current roster isn't striking fear into the heart of anyone.  As it stands right now, I don't think the Knicks with Melo would beat the Cavs, Bulls, Pacers, or Wizards in a seven game series.  With Melo on the Bulls, however, you could have legitimately talked about title aspirations, regardless of who would be coming out of the West.

The problem with the Bulls ever since Derrick Rose has arrived has been the lack of a proven, go-to scorer.  Rose is commended for his slash and dash, aggressive style of play, but I really think it's because he doesn't trust anyone else to put up buckets in that offense.  And why should he?  Noah and Boozer have always been there, but no one that can drop 30 like it's nothing.  Melo would have been that guy.  I think it would have taken a lot of stress off of Rose, both physically and mentally, to have a shooter like Melo.  He still would have been in a big market (Chicago), and he still would have had an easy road to the Finals in the East.  It would have wiped the Knicks off as contenders and catapulted the Bulls ahead of the Cavs. 

Unfortunately, things don't always work out the way we want them to.  Melo is back in New York and should, with Jackson's guidance, take the Knicks back to the playoffs.  A deep run is unlikely though.  The Bulls meanwhile, must pray that Doug McDermott plays as well for the Bulls as he did for Creighton.  His defense needs a lot of work, but he is an unquestioned offensive threat.  Still, praying for McDermott's success is a much riskier adventure than knowing that Melo would be wearing a Bulls jersey this year.

Who Are These Lakers?
Lakers.  Yankees.  Cowboys.  Some teams just have histories and reputations that will not die.  The Yankees can pretty much pick and choose their players in free agency, as they are an international brand.  The Cowboys are America's Team and are publicly relevant even when they have a down year.  The Lakers have experienced sustained success for years and years in a flashy, big market with legends upon legends, and championships upon championships.  So what has happened recently that they're not even the premier team in LA anymore?  Give credit to the Clippers as they finally started making smart draft picks and personnel moves to build what they have now.  The Lakers, however, seem to have lost their way.

You're telling me that in this stacked free agency pool that the Lakers couldn't get anybody?!  They got Jeremy Lin in a trade with the Rockets, but Lin has cooled off since Linsanity in New York, and even lost his starting job last year to Patrick Beverley.   Then, to make it look like they did something significant, they resigned Nick Young to a new contract.  This is the same Nick Young who has already been on four NBA teams and is the architect of some of the dumbest plays I've ever seen.  His 17.9 point per game average may have led the Lakers, but someone had to score the ball with Kobe out, and his 43.5% shooting percentage was good for 89th among qualified players.  Even giving him the benefit of the doubt, is Young who you want to bank the future of the Lakers on? 

Despite the nice draft pick of Julius Randle out of Kentucky, they also lost long time Laker Pau Gasol.  It seems like the Lakers are rebuilding at a time when Kobe Bryant is entering the final stages of his career.  Bryant is competitive enough that he doesn't want to spend the next several years trying to build up young players, he wants to win now.  Supposedly they were the favorites to land Melo for a day or two, but something happened that completely ruined that prospect as Melo narrowed it down to Chicago and New York.  They also swung and missed on Phil Jackson before hiring Mike D'Antoni.  That worked out real well.  Whatever is going on in Laker Land, they better get it fixed.  Kobe clearly wants to stay a Laker and it would be good for the NBA, and a longtime veteran like Kobe if the Lakers were contenders once again.

No TV Special For These Guys, But They Still Can Help
As the big names in free agency picked teams, there were a few others that went unnoticed, but could wind up helping their team.  The first one was Paul Pierce going to Washington.  At age 36, Pierce is obviously not the player he once was, but add him to an improving Washington squad who pushed the Pacers to six in the Eastern Conference Semis, and you have a nice offensive piece.  He'll be a good veteran presence to have around youngsters John Wall and Bradley Beal.  This was just a small blip now, but I think this will help them perform better in the postseason.

Luol Deng was a two time All-Star with the Chicago Bulls and, after a partial season in Cleveland, is taking his talents to South Beach.  Obviously he's not going to replace LeBron, but he can certainly help to provide some of the scoring left by King James.  Without him, the Heat are a borderline playoff team, but with him, I think they will definitely get in.  Miami fans won't be pleased that he is the consolation prize after LeBron left, but he should give them decent production.  

In a move that flew really under the radar because of the teams involved, the Suns were able to get Isaiah Thomas in a sign and trade with Sacramento.  This was an outstanding trade for Phoenix as Thomas averaged 20.3 points per game and 6.3 assists per game last season with the Kings.  He now joins a back court with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe to try and get the Suns into the playoffs.  They really deserved to be in last year, but unfortunately are a part of the Western Conference.  Had they been in the East, they would have finished tied for third.  The West is stacked from top to bottom, but I think with the Suns roster, they should be playoff bound and might even upset a team or two along the way.

Da Bulls
I'm not sure if I'm happier about getting Pau Gasol or getting rid of Carlos Boozer.  Obviously Melo would have been the best of the bunch to come to Chicago, but you can't win 'em all.  In all honesty, for all the hate Boozer has gotten the past couple years, he's actually done a pretty nice job with the Bulls.  He brings a big body who can score, and plays with heart and emotion which is what the rallying cry of the Bulls is.  Still, his defensive game is lacking and Taj Gibson has overtaken him in that regard.  Boozer would be pulled in the fourth quarter if the game was close in favor of Gibson.  That won't be an issue with Gasol.

Gasol not only plays better defense than Boozer, he's also a better passer.  He's probably a better passer than anyone on the Bulls outside of Rose.  He's got a great mid range game, and can still finish close to the bucket.  It might seem like overkill at the position with Gibson and Noah there already, but Gasol is more of a complimentary piece.  Gasol hasn't played a full season since the 2010-11 season and, at age 34, is starting to show signs of age.  That is perfectly fine.  Similar to what the Spurs do with Tim Duncan nowadays, the Bulls will be able to get away with playing Gasol sparingly in the regular season, then unleashing him in the playoffs.  The Bulls made the playoffs sans Rose and Gasol this past year, so rest for both of them wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  His passing makes everyone around him better and he should make for a significant piece in the postseason.

One concern that is bothering me about the Bulls, similar to the Lakers, is their inability to draw in the big ones.  Gasol is nice and all, but he wasn't the big prize.  Even going back to "The Decision" with LeBron.  Up until that special, the Bulls were still in the mix for LeBron.  Chicago is a big market, and if the Big 3 were to set up shop in Chicago, then Wade would be back home as well.  This year, we were once again in the running for a big name free agent in Carmelo Anthony.  Once again, we let him slip away.  The circumstances this time around were much more difficult on the Bulls' end due to salary cap concerns, but players do drastic things to win championships.  I like the talent the Bulls have now and think they've done a great job building up this team.  Still, the Bulls will once again go through this season without a proven, knock it down shooter.  McBuckets has potential, but that doesn't mean anything until you put the ball in the basket.

Matty O


Saturday, July 12, 2014

World Cup Final Preview

How They Got Here
Germany
Won Group G.  Defeated Algeria 2-1 in Round of 16.  Defeated France 1-0 in Quarterfinals.  Defeated Brazil 7-1 in Semifinals.

Argentina
Won Group F.  Defeated Switzerland 1-0 in Round of 16.  Defeated Belgium 1-0 in Quarterfinals.  Defeated Netherlands 4-2 in penalty shootout, 0-0 regulation in Semifinals.

How Germany Can Win
As simple and cliche as it sounds, all Germany needs to do is keep doing what they've been doing.  They've dominated at times this tournament and have only experienced struggles against the two African nations they have faced (Ghana and Algeria).  Thankfully for the Germans, Argentina is in South America.  Their last game against a South American nation went pretty well.  The final score of the Brazil game looked ugly, but to be honest, it appeared as though Brazil kind of quit after the third goal.  I doubt they get that much open space and free running against Argentina as they did against Brazil in the final 60 or so minutes of that game.  Still, their first three goals when Brazil was still mentally and emotionally in it, exemplified how the Germans have played at this World Cup.

Germany has thrived on precision passing and taking advantage of other teams' mistakes.  Unlike a Brazil, who heavily relied on Neymar for possession and offense, Germany seems to distribute the load evenly.  As far as goals go, Thomas Muller and Miroslav Klose have certainly seen their fair share of them this tournament, but you never got the sense that they were the sole reason for the Germans winning.  They also have the depth to go with different lineups depending on their opponent.  The fact that players like Klose, Mario Gotze, and even Bastian Schweinsteiger have all been subs at this Cup tells you a lot about their depth. 

Germany just needs to continue with their attacking possession and, obviously, contain Lionel Messi.  Contrary to popular belief, Argentina do have other weapons besides Messi that can kill you, but Messi certainly makes it much easier on all of them.  Teams have done a fairly good job of containing him this World Cup and the German midfield will be the best he's faced yet.  Still, all it takes is that one moment when you fall asleep and then the ball is in the back of the net.

How Argentina Can Win
As I mentioned before, Argentina is not a one trick pony.  That would be Portugal (looking at you Christiano Ronaldo).  Argentina has skilled players all over the pitch, particularly up front.  The three striker rotation of Gonzalo Higuain, Rodrigo Palacio, and Sergio Aguero may be the best collection of forwards on one team of any in the World Cup.  Another piece of good news for Argentina is that their defense has peaked at just the right time.  They have yet to allow a non-penalty shootout goal in the knockout stages against the Swiss, Belgium, and the Dutch.  To be fair, the Swiss are not known for their offense and Belgium underachieved all tournament, but holding the Dutch scoreless for a full 120 minutes without giving up many good chances was incredible.  They'll need their defense to come up big once again.

Despite the other weapons, Messi's performance has to be where Argentina's hopes are either realized or destroyed.  Messi will have more pressure on him than anyone else in this game by a long shot.  He continues to battle unfair comparisons to Diego Maradona, who is a legend in Argentina thanks to his 1986 World Cup winning performance (five goals, five assists).  Given Messi's club success and skill in general, it would be a major disappointment if he were to not win a Cup for Argentina.  His Argentine team has been ousted in the quarterfinals the past two World Cups, so people are looking at this chance as his best.  While I don't think he needs to play at a superstar level to win, I do think that if he plays poorly, that Argentina will lose and lose big.

If Argentina can beat back the waves of German attack that they will see on Sunday, then I think they have a shot.  They're a very fast and quick team, but it's a controlled fast.  Compare that to Brazil, who is also fast, but quite reckless in the process.  Sometimes it works for the Brazilians, other times, like when David Luiz hung his defense out to dry multiple times in the semifinal, it can be costly.  Argentina's counterattack will go a long way in helping them to win this match.  If there is a weakness to be found in the German squad it is their defense.  While they do have one of the best goalies in the world in Manuel Neuer in net, it won't mean much if they give up open looks.  It will certainly be an uphill battle for Messi and Argentina, but all it takes is one moment, one mistake, to win a soccer game.

Prediction
Germany 3 - Argentina 1
I think this will be a great game of two nations with storied soccer histories battling it out.  I think Argentina gets their fair share of chances and even puts one home.  Their defense has been playing well, but Germany has been clinically dissecting defenses all tournament.  I think it's 2-1 by the time the 70th minute rolls around and Germany gets their third on the counter as Argentina is forced to push men forward.

Be sure to catch the final, Sunday on ABC at 2pm central!

Matty O


Wednesday, July 2, 2014

ESPYS 2014

Best Male Athlete
Nominees:  Miguel Cabrera, Kevin Durant, Floyd Mayweather, Peyton Manning
Winner:  Peyton Manning
I was tempted to put Mayweather here as he won two title matches since the last ESPYS in convincing fashion.  Manning's offensive explosion and NFL records, however, swayed me.  While Manning might not have won the title in his sport, he did win his 5th NFL MVP award, something no one else has done, and set the record for most passing TDs and yards in a season.  Manning led the Broncos to a 13-3 record as they scored 10 more points per game than the next closest team (Broncos had 37.9 PPG, Bears and Patriots had 27.8).  Manning's efficient play calling and passing skills also helped Knowshown Moreno and Eric Decker receive healthy contracts in free agency.  The Super Bowl may not have gone as well as he would have liked, but you can bet he'll be on a revenge tour this year to capture another title.

Best Female Athlete
Nominees:  Maya Moore, Ronda Rousey, Mikaela Shiffrin, Breanna Stewart
Winner:  Ronda Rousey
Rousey has not only broken down barriers in mixed martial arts (MMA) for women, but she's also really good at what she does.  She had been in Strikeforce prior to this past year and even won a bronze medal in Judo at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, but her popularity really took off since she joined the UFC.  Since the 2013 ESPYS, she has gone 2-0 in title defenses, headlined a UFC pay-per-view event (UFC 170), got to be one of the coaches on Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter, and is co-headlining UFC 175 this Saturday.  She is 9-0 in her MMA career and has established herself as one of the most dominant people in their respective sport.

Best Team
Nominees:  Boston Red Sox, LA Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Seattle Seahawks, UConn Women's Basketball, Florida State Football
Winner:  San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs win this category hands down.  The Spurs, once again, wound up with the best record in the NBA playing in the far superior Western Conference.  During the postseason, they had nine players play all 23 games, and all of them averaged more than 15 minutes per game.  The Spurs were pushed to seven in the first round against the Mavs thanks to Vince Carter becoming half man, half amazing once again.  Then, they steamrolled the Blazers in a series where Portland was lucky to even win a game.  In the Western Conference Finals, they used home court advantage to crush MVP Kevin Durant and the Thunder in San Antonio, then wrap it up in Game 6 in overtime in OKC.  The much hyped Heat series became a stroll in the park as they won rather easily in five games.  They were dominant throughout the year and have a bright future with 23 year old Kawhi Leonard winning the NBA Finals MVP.

Best Comeback
Nominees:  Josh Beckett, Sidney Crosby, Dominic Moore, Russell Westbrook
Winner:  Josh Beckett
Unlike the other guys on this list, Beckett looked bad before he missed time with an injury or other leave of absence (Moore missed time due to the passing of his wife).  Beckett came over from Boston to the Dodgers in 2012, but was never able to capture that same Boston magic.  In 2013, he only started eight games for LA and saw his ERA balloon to 5.19, his highest for a full season since 2010.  This season, however, Beckett is pitching much better.  Despite a 5-5 record, Beckett has his ERA back down to 2.37 and threw his first career no hitter this year back on May 25th against the Phillies.  If he stays in form, this Dodgers team will be a terror to play in the postseason as the first four games they can send out Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Beckett.

Best Breakthrough Athlete
Nominees:  Nick Foles, Damian Lillard, Richard Sherman, Masahiro Tanaka
Winner:  Nick Foles
This one is a true toss up, although the argument could be made that Lillard and Sherman both truly broke through prior to last year's ESPYS (last year's category was stacked with Colin Kap, Russell Wilson, Johnny Manziel, Mike Trout, and Yasiel Puig).  What Foles did once he got the starting job was nothing short of spectacular.  The Eagles were 1-3 before Foles took over at QB, but he turned the team around as they went 9-2 under him (he missed one game due to injury) and won the NFC East title.  He threw for 27 TDs and only 2 interceptions as he helped provide some legitimacy to Chip Kelly's high octane, high speed offense. 

Best Championship Performance
Nominees:  Kawhi Leonard, David Ortiz, Jimmie Johnson, Shabazz Napier
Winner:  Shabazz Napier
The Spurs and Leonard may have had the best team, but Napier was the most impressive in each person's respective postseason.  Napier led the 7th seeded UConn Huskies on an incredible run from the seven seed all the way to National Champions.  Along the way, they had to beat (10) St. Joseph's, (2) Villanova, (3) Iowa State,  (4) Michigan State, (1) Florida, and (8) Kentucky.  Shabazz led the Huskies in scoring in four of those games, including a 22 point performance to lead all players in the National Title game while playing 39 of the 40 minutes.  He had good players around him in Ryan Boatright and DeAndre Daniels, but Napier led the way and was the heart of that team.  Deservedly, he won the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award.

Best Game
Nominees:  Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide, Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts, New York Rangers vs LA Kings Game 5
Winner:  Chiefs vs Colts
This was probably the toughest call to make as I kept going back and forth between Chiefs/Colts and Auburn/'Bama.  It really is #1 and #1a.  The ending of Auburn/'Bama might have been better, but the entirety of the game has to go to Chiefs/Colts.  In this game, we got to see why Andrew Luck is the king of 4th quarter comebacks.  Unfortunately, it's because the Colts are so bad the first three quarters.  The Chiefs pounded the Colts in the first half as Indy turned it over twice and found themselves down 31-10 going into halftime.  Still plenty of time to catch up.  Problem is on the very first play in the 3rd quarter, Luck threw an interception at his own 18 yard line.  Three plays later and it's 38-10 and I changed the channel.  Even when the Colts got it down to 38-24, Luck threw another interception right after the Chiefs went three and out.

Going into the 4th, the Colts got it down to 10, but still needed some help.  They got it in the form of one of the luckiest bounces ever.  Donald Brown, halfback for the Colts, took a dive up the middle only to be stripped at the goal line.  Luck, having just handed the ball off, saw the ball bounce right to him as he lowered his own shoulder and dove into the end zone to make it a 41-38 game.  Lucas Oil was rocking and that's when you really started to think that they might actually pull this one out.  After another Chiefs field goal, Luck connected on a bomb to TY Hilton with 4 minutes left to give the Colts a 45-44 lead.  The Colts held on to conclude one of the wildest comebacks and games I have ever seen.

Best Upset
Nominees:  UConn wins NCAA title, Mercer Beats Duke, Chris Weidman Beats Anderson Silva
Winner:  Weidman Beats Silva
From 2006 when Silva joined the UFC to October 2012, his last win in the UFC, Silva was probably the most dominant person in his sport in terms of record and ease with which he beat his opponents.  During that stretch, he went 16-0 while beating some of the best names that the UFC had to offer.  He held the UFC Middleweight Title that entire stretch and was only taken to the 5th (final) round three times.  Every time Silva had a match the UFC would have to talk and hype up his competitor to get people to watch, but in truth it was over before the fight even began.  He would head bob, fight with his hands down, and attempt moves that other fighters would never try.  Ironically, it was his cocky hands down fighting that cost him.  Weidman kept pressing the issue, and finally caught him in an exchange where Silva tried to out quick him rather than out fight him.  It was a monumental upset, as Weidman has gone on to beat Silva a second time due to a nasty leg injury (warning: graphic).  It was the first fight, however, that got the title out of Silva's hands for the first time in eight years.

Best Moment
Usually they have this as a category, but last time I checked the site they don't have it up to vote on though I could have sworn it was up about a week ago.  My guess is that they are redoing the poll as one of the nominees probably had to do with the US Soccer Team at the World Cup.  That's my guess, but it should be available to vote on in the near future.

Just off the top of my head, one moment that I thought was awesome was Martin St. Louis' comeback after the death of his mother.  She died just three days prior to Mother's Day while the Rangers were in the middle of their second round series with the Penguins.  The Rangers rallied around St. Louis and came back from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the favored Penguins in seven games.  They used this momentum to carry them past Montreal in the Conference Finals before falling in five to the Kings.  St. Louis is one of those old, grizzled veterans, respected around the league by fans and players alike so it was nice to see him and his team respond in a positive way.

Matty O