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Thursday, January 24, 2013

The Lakers: Easy Solution

By now, we are all well aware of the plight of the Lakers.  The Showtime Lakers have turned into the No-Time Lakers, as in no time for defense, teamwork, or winning.  People from ESPN to radio talk shows have been searching to find a solution or root of the problem.  In my opinion, it's very simple and it boils down to one person and one person only; Mike D'Antoni.

Now, it's easy for me to say this retrospectively but I don't believe they should have fired Mike Brown in the first place unless Phil Jackson was a lock to coach.  It's not so much that I am endorsing Brown as the coach that would lead the Lakers to multiple titles, but unless you can find a coach significantly better, why change?  It's a bit like the Mark Sanchez situation in New York.  The Jets kept him on the roster (so far) going into next season, even though he has struggled recently and has drawn the ire of the Jet fan base.  The probable cause is not confidence in his skill, but rather the other QBs that are out there?  Mike Vick?  The injury machine at the end of his career.  Alex Smith?  The guy who lost his job to a rookie and was a bust until Harbaugh got there.  One of these rookies?  In a very weak QB draft class.  No, unless you have a proven, significant replacement, I think it is wise not to rock the boat.  Regardless, the Lakers brought in D'Antoni primarily based on the work he did in Phoenix (he did improve the Knicks, but nothing compared to his Phoenix days).  On paper, it looked like a great fit.

Steve Nash, his point guard and maestro of his offense, would be reunited with him.  He would be coaching the best player in Kobe Bryant, that he ever got to coach in the NBA.  He would also inherit All-Stars Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard.  Formula for success right?  Wrong.  For starters, this isn't Phoenix and although Nash is there, the other Suns are not.  Dwight Howard is not Amare Stoudemire, Gasol is not Shawn Marion, and Bryant is not Leandro Barbosa.  Are those three Suns players better than those three Lakers based on raw skill?  No, of course not.  But within D'Antoni's system they become better than all three, expect Bryant.  Take the Chicago Bulls for example.  I love the Bulls and I love the players they got.  But without Tom Thibodeau's scheme of strong defense, emphasis on rebounding, and solid half court offense, I think the Bulls would be a middle of the road team, possibly a team not in the playoffs.  I've always been a believer that any group of players can be successful, it's just how they are utilized that determines that.  At this point, the Lakers players are not being used to their full potential.

There are a few other theories out there that try to explain the Lakers' problems that I think are ridiculous.  The first of which is Kobe Bryant.  The main complaint here is he takes too many shots.  For one thing, he has to.  He is undoubtedly the best player and shooter on that team, HIS team, and he feels personally responsible for the success and failure of the Lakers.  As a Laker fan, would you rather have Kobe shooting the ball or Earl Clark?  Wait, time out.  That's not nice to take a shot (no pun intended) at Earl Clark.  A guy who never gets in the game.  Oh wait, he totally does.  Clark played 35 minutes against the Bulls on Monday and started.  He played more minutes than Howard, Gasol, and only one less than Nash.  If these are the players Kobe is forced to play with then yes, if I'm a Laker fan, I have no problem with him leading the league in shot attempts.  By the way, he was second in the league in shot attempts during the Lakers' last two title seasons, behind only Dwayne Wade in 08-09 and Kevin Durant in 09-10.  The Black Mamba is not the problem.

Another point of emphasis during this Laker slide has been Dwight Howard.  Now, a part of me wants to blame him.  He was brought in to follow in the footsteps of the Shaquille O'Neals and the Kareem Abdul Jabbars of the world.  So far, he hasn't lived up to that billing.  He's already missed a few games with an injury and has an absolutely awful free throw percentage (50.4).  His chemistry with Kobe has been questioned due to his playful personality clashing with Kobe's professional, serious demeanor on the court.  Despite all of this, he still is averaging a double double with 16.7 PPG and 12 rebounds per game.  He's also averaging more blocks per game (2.5) than he did during his past two seasons.  He's accomplishing all of this while being asked to play within a system that does not fit him.

D'Antoni's system relies heavily on the jump shot and agile big men.  You could argue that Howard is neither.  He is most comfortable getting low in the post and using his big frame to dunk it or shoot an easy baby hook shot for two.  His defensive stats are even more impressive given D'Antoni's lack of knowledge in defense and Nash's poor defending.  It's much easier for the talented point guards in the NBA (there are a lot nowadays) to slash into the lane where Howard has to make a play on them, as well as watch his own man.  His numbers in Orlando speak for themselves and before D'Antoni was hired, he put up point totals of 19, 33, 13, 28, 19, 6, and 23.  By comparison, his most recent games have seen point totals of 22, 31, 13, 5, 8, and 2.  If they keep D'Antoni, I actually think it would make sense to trade Howard just to get better pieces for the offense.  Having said that, the team that they do trade him to will be getting one hell of a player.  Put Howard back in an offense he is comfortable with and I think the outstanding offensive and defensive numbers he put up in Orlando will start to show again.

The last person people are trying to blame is Jim Buss.  Buss is an owner of the Lakers and was the deciding factor on who the coach would wind up being.  While Buss deserves some of the blame for not analyzing the problems a D'Antoni system would bring to LA, he can't be blamed too much because of the glossy surface it presented.  As mentioned before, this looked like a fairly good fit.  D'Antoni had won out in the desert and made the Knicks relevant again.  Some blame him for not conceding enough to get Phil Jackson, but Jackson turned down the New Jersey Nets job later in the year.  Given the prestige and roster of the Lakers, as well as the promising talent and hype around the Nets, you would think one would take either of those jobs.  Clearly he doesn't want to coach at this time so the Jackson turn down was more a matter of circumstance rather than Buss directly causing an opportunity to slip away.  Buss still had Kobe and Gasol, then went out and acquired Nash and Howard from free agency.  He did all in his power and within financial limits, that he could to make this team a contender.  He doesn't coach the team, he doesn't shoot the shots, and he doesn't play the defense that the Lakers don't play.  In this case, the owner is not the problem.

So what now?  Well, there are two options.  Hold onto everyone, ride out the season, and hope for the turnaround of all turnarounds.  The other option is to accept your fate of missing the playoffs and start firing and/or trading people away to build for the future.  I suggest they go with the latter.  I think everyone is simply waiting for that moment when everything clicks and they turn it around.  In fact they did click this year.  For a five game win streak!  Unfortunately, three of those five wins were against the Wizards, 76ers, and Bobcats.  By the way, they gave up 100 points to the Bobcats!  Some defense.  At some point you have to accept that you are either a good or bad team.  I don't think they will make the playoffs which is unheard of for a team with their history and the skill on this roster.  They remind me of the Philadelphia Eagles the past couple years.  Their teams on paper looked unstoppable but the product on the field left much to be desired.

The good news for Laker fans is it's not even the All Star Break yet.  I admit, there is a good chance this could backfire on me and this whole article could look silly by April and May.  If they get the right pieces in a trade for Howard and/or Gasol, I actually think this team could be quite good.  As it stands right now, though, the experiment has failed.  Superman + Black Mamba + World Peace ≠ World Title, though it might equal a good tagline for a movie.  So while other teams get asked questions about how many titles they will win, the Lakers will get asked how many points they will give up a game.  To which Kobe should respond in typical Lebron fashion, "Not 70, not 80, not 90, not 100....."

Matty O

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Har-Bowl Super Bowl Preview

Where to start with the story lines for this one?  Brother vs Brother.  Ray Lewis in his last hurrah.  Unknown backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick turning a defensive team into an offensive juggernaut.  The 49ers with a chance to tie the record for most Super Bowls won as well as having never lost a Super Bowl they were in.  The matchup, surprising as it is, presents a wide array of intriguing factors.

I Thought The Ravens Would Be In the Super Bowl When...
Well, this evening.  When the clock struck 0:00, and not a second sooner with Tom Brady on the other side.  I can honestly say that I did not see this coming and actually thought the Pats would blow out the Ravens.  I thought the Ravens would handle Indy and rattle rookie QB Andrew Luck, which they did.  The Broncos game was certainly an eye opener as they were able to win in double overtime, despite facing a Broncos team that had had the previous week off to rest and prepare.  Then came a Patriots team that had averaged 35 points per game in the regular season and had just steamrolled a very talented Texans team the week before.  Ray Lewis's motivation could only go so far, or so I thought.

The Ravens, a team that struggled mightily in the regular season on the road, (4-4, though the four wins were an ugly 9-6 game against the Chiefs, one against the Browns, by 3 against a Byron Leftwich led Steelers team, and by 3 in overtime to a struggling Chargers team) hung with the vaunted Patriots offense in the first half and pulled away in the second.  Even when the score was 28-13, however, there was still a sense that Brady might be able to pull it off even with two minutes left.  Heck, if anyone could do it, Brady was the guy.  Instead, an emotional Lewis and a precise Joe Flacco led Ravens team are marching into New Orleans representing the AFC.

I Thought The 49ers Would Be In the Super Bowl When...
Well, right around here.  This was when I bought into Kaepernick and realized he was a significant help to a 49ers offense that was really holding them back from being truly elite.  Even though I thought they would face Seattle in the NFC Championship, they still got to the destination I believed they would.  All of a sudden, this 49ers team that was known for its defense, is now a very formidable offensive team.  They already hung 41 on the Packers in the divisional round, and racked up 28 on Atlanta in the Georgia Dome today.  While I would not call either of those teams' defenses elite, it was still impressive to watch how easily Kap was able to dissect the defenses once he found his groove.  They'll certainly face a greater test in the Super Bowl.

Ravens X-Factor - Vonta Leach
For those that don't know, Leach is the guy who has been clearing the way for Ray Rice the past two years, and previously was in Houston making Arian Foster a household name.  Wherever he goes, good running backs tend to follow, and for good reason.  He's an excellent blocker and reads plays well.  He's also fairly good at catching balls out of the backfield for a fullback.  It will be critical for the Ravens to control the tempo and establish the running game against an excellent 49ers defense.  If you are one dimensional against that D, expect little to no success.  If Leach can clear up some holes for Rice, not only will it help the running game, but it will also open up the play action pass allowing Flacco to bomb it deep to Torrey Smith for some big gains.

49ers X-Factor - LaMichael James
James, a former star running back at Oregon, does it all.  He can run inside, outside, catch balls, and return kicks.  In the NFC title game he had 3 returns for 64 yards, one catch for 4 yards, and 5 rushes for 34 yards and a score.  He's a great compliment to Gore because James is much quicker and relies on speed rather than strength.  The read option style attack that Kap now runs with the 49ers is very similar to the one he ran in his time at college, so he has been integrated into the offense seamlessly.  His value as a kick returner allows the 49ers to start with great field position which will be crucial in the Super Bowl given the defenses of the two teams.  I expect James to be integrated into the offense more going forward, and the Super Bowl would be a great place to have a breakout game.  If the 49ers win, check out James's stat line.  I bet it is outstanding.

Ravens Win If...Joe Flacco Protects The Ball
Flacco is an interesting QB.  Since he came into the league, he has always been on the cusp of greatness.  He's led his team deep into the playoffs, despite not putting up mind boggling numbers like the Aaron Rodgers and Tom Bradys of the world.  I think some people use the "Mark Sanchez" excuse with Flacco, downgrading him because his defense is so good.  It also helps to have Rice in the backfield with you.  That being said, he has proved his worth and now is in the big game.  The 49ers defense, however, is an active one with 25 takeaways this year, good for top 10 in the NFL.  They swarm, wrap up, and tackle well.  Flacco will be confronted with some make or break decisions this game because of the pressure San Fran will put on that offense.  He needs to protect the ball and avoid giving the ball up, especially on their side of the field.  In the AFC title game, he did not turn it over once.  In the Ravens 6 losses this year, he had 10.  Protect that ball Joe.

49ers Win If...Kaepernick Plays Like Kaepernick
He just needs to stay within himself.  He is still in his second year and that start to the first half today was not the prettiest thing in the world.  I'm not sure if he mounts the same comeback if they fall down to the Ravens.  They need to continue to stick with the read option that has been working so well for them and trust Colin to make the right reads.  While Lewis and the Ravens might be great at being in position, speed is speed and Colin has a lot of it.  If he can find a seam, I think the age and wear and tear from the playoffs will show, and the Ravens won't be able to catch him.  He has plenty of weapons in the passing game with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Gore and James out of the backfield, and even Randy Moss.  He needs to continue to have the confidence to make strong passes and trust his receivers to make a play.  If he can do that, their offense should click like it has recently and they can rely on their defense to make the stops they need to.

John Harbaugh Could Have Lost The Season When...They Got Demolished By Houston
Defensive stars Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb got injured the week before in the Dallas game.  Then, the Ravens go on the road and get absolutely destroyed by the Texans 43-13.  They were probably the ugliest 5-2 team you could imagine.  4 of their 5 wins came by 7 points or less and they also lost to the Eagles, who turned out to be a bad team this year.  Although the Bengals and Steelers were also struggling, it was anyone's division.  After their bye week, they stormed out of the gates and won their next four games.  Partly thanks to a Big Ben injury, the Ravens were able to take the division and advance to the playoffs.  This was a team that was on the ropes and even struggled down the stretch, but John was able to keep the team together enough to get back the inspirational leader (Ray Lewis) of the team and lead them to the Super Bowl.

Jim Harbaugh Could Have Lost The Season When...He Stuck With Colin Kaepernick
Even though I finally came around to Kaepernick, I disagreed with the decision to stick with him.  Say what you will about Alex Smith, he was having a pretty good year up to that point.  They were 6-2 and had already beaten Green Bay in Lambeau, as well as division rivals Seattle and Arizona.  Then, Smith gets hurt in the St. Louis game, and Kap comes in, plays well, and leads them to a...tie.  But any quarterback can have a good game.  Heck, Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six TDs about a year ago and spent all of this season warming the bench behind a rookie.  Smith had the experience and, in my opinion, had earned his spot whenever he was well enough to come back.  Harbaugh didn't see it that way and chose to go with the high flying, read option specialist Kaepernick.  Imagine what happens if that doesn't work out.  It very easily could have tanked.

Their next opponents were against Chicago, in the Superdome against the Saints, at St. Louis, Miami, then in New England and Seattle.  If they start to slide, then you have a controversy of who to start.  Then the offense has to shift back to a more conventional style with Alex Smith.  Then you lose a few more games and throw Kap back in there because the fans are booing mercilessly.  Then you're among a handful of other coaches unemployed at the end of the season.  As it stands, Jim made the right, some might say risky, choice of sticking with his gut.  Now we'll see if his gut can get them the Lombardi Trophy.

So Who Wins This Thing?
As much as I respect Ray Lewis for what he has brought to the game as well as effected people off the field, I got to give the edge to the 49ers.  As I mentioned earlier, I think the speed of the 49ers will expose the Ravens, even Lewis as the game goes on.  In close games like this, special teams always make a significant difference and you have to give the edge to the 49ers with James and Ted Ginn Jr. returning kicks and punts, respectively.  Even with the defense of these two teams, I think it's a high scoring game with the 49ers winning 34-24.  I would love for Ray to ride off into the sunset, but I think at the end of this game, it will be more so about the 49ers and their reemergence as a super power in the NFL.  If Kap is indeed the solution, I expect multiple playoff appearances as well as Super Bowl appearances in the years to come.

Matty O

Monday, January 7, 2013

What I Leanred During Bowl Season

There Are Way Too Many Bowls
I'm all for the little guys getting their chance to shine, but we can't let everyone into a bowl game, can we?  Air Force, Iowa State, Duke, Minnesota, and Purdue all made bowl games and, due to their losses in their bowls, finished with a losing record.  Teams like that do not and should not get a chance to display their "talents" in a bowl game.  It's great for the sponsors, the conferences, and the teams, but at the end of the day someone needs to be left out.  There were 35 bowl games this year, which I think is about 10 too many.  It is as though we are rewarding mediocrity since a mere six wins makes a team bowl eligible nowadays.  It's time the NCAA/BCS increases the qualifications to get into a bowl.  This will make them more competitive, interesting to watch, and make the regular season more important.

Maybe The MAC Isn't That Good
Due to my ties to NIU, I've always been a MAC fan and supporter.  Even though I think there are too many bowls nowadays, I've always been a fan of expansion because previously, the MAC only had two slots for bowl games when they usually had four or five quality teams.  This year was horrendous though.  The only wins were by Ohio (vs Louisiana Monroe) in a blowout and Central Michigan (vs Western Kentucky) by a mere three points.  That was the good.  The bad?

Kent State, a team I thought was pretty darn good, got held to 13 points and lost to Arkansas State 17-13.  Toledo got destroyed by WAC member Utah State 41-15.  Ball State fared a bit better against UCF, losing 38-17.  Bowling Green suffered a similar fate when they lost to San Jose State 29-20.  Then to top it all off, NIU gets beaten fairly easily by Florida State in the Orange Bowl.  This is a conference that demands respect because they are competitive against Big Ten teams and can beat the lower tier ones.  Well, no one really cares when schools from the WAC and Conference USA are destroying you in bowl games.  And even though NIU played a big time team, I didn't really think they looked that good.  I thought if all the bounces went their way, they could win.  They pulled off a fake punt, on side kick, and forced a fumble when it was still 0-0 and still lost by 21.  Even though 14 of FSU's points came in the 4th quarter, NIU never really looked in sync.  MAC, time to step up your game if you want respect in college football.

Maybe the Big East Is That Good
The Big East has recently been thought of as a very weak conference, with questions over the worthiness of their inclusion in a BCS bowl.  Well, they shut up all the naysayers, including myself, this bowl season.  They did suffer two losses as Rutgers lost by three to Virginia Tech and Pitt got trounced by Ole Miss, but they showed up in the games that mattered.  On top of a Cincinnati win over Duke, Syracuse destroyed West Virginia 38-14 at Yankee Stadium in the snow.  Remember WVU was one of the top teams in the nation at one point and had Heisman runner Geno Smith at quarterback.  In their statement game, Louisville, a severe underdog to Florida, had their way with the Gators as they dominated the game more than the 33-23 score suggests.  Teddy Bridgewater had the Florida defense scrambling all night, and the Gators couldn't do enough on offense to keep up.  The "Big Least" turned into the Big East as they proved that games are not won on paper.

Oregon Deserved A National Title Shot
Before the title game happened, I thought Oregon was more worthy of playing in the title game over both Alabama and Notre Dame, they just lost at the wrong time.  Even after the Tide's demolishing of Notre Dame, I still think Oregon could beat both those teams.  Oregon's offense was electric all season long, minus the Stanford game, and proved it once again against an extremely good Kansas State team.  These two were on a collision course for the title game until they both lost on the same day with KSU going down to Baylor and Oregon losing in overtime to Stanford.  That loss was not nearly as ugly as Alabama's loss to Texas A&M.  Quite frankly, it was better than Notre Dame's win over Stanford earlier in the year.

The Ducks boasted an offense that had a quarterback in Marcus Mariota, running back Kenjon Barner, and speedy WR/RB/returner/anything De'Anthony Thomas with the ladder two being Heisman candidates at one point throughout the season.  Thomas kept his bowl game mojo as he returned the opening kick for a TD and finished with 15 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving with a TD, and 120 kick return yards.  And he only got 8 total touches!  Their offense is an even better version of Texas A&M's, which steamrolled through Alabama's defense to the tune of 29 points and 418 yards.  I think they would have put on a show against Alabama or shredded Notre Dame's defense.  I still think they would have put up at least 40 on either team and won handily.  We'll have to wait until next year's playoff when they can prove it, because I see them as a top 4 or 5 team next year as well.

Notre Dame Did Not Deserve A National Title Shot
It's easy to say this now that the title game went the way it did, but I felt this way prior to the result.  As mentioned above, I thought Oregon deserved to be there against the SEC Champion.  While Oregon was blowing people out, Notre Dame was struggling to beat Purdue, Pitt, BYU, Michigan, and Stanford.  Speaking of Michigan, Notre Dame beat them by 7 while Alabama beat them by 27.  Just saying, you had to think a blowout might be coming in the title game.  Maybe it's an anti-Notre Dame bias, but I think they are unfairly ranked higher than they actually deserve.  Not just this year, but any year.  They seem to be rewarded by their history and mystique rather than what they have accomplished.  I watched a fair amount of Irish, Tide, and Ducks games this year and from the eye test, it was clear that the Tide and Ducks were better than the Irish.  I also thought Georgia was a better team than the Irish, and possibly the Tide even though they lost the SEC title game.  The Irish season was phenomenal, no doubt, and they certainly deserved a BCS bowl game and a high ranking.  I just think in terms of competition and chance to win the title, Oregon and perhaps Georgia were much more worthy.

The SEC Is The Best Conference, Hands Down
I've not been a fan of the SEC dominating the college football landscape like they have recently.  Each year they win the title and brag about it, I'm always trying to find ways to make excuses/cases for why the Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac 12 is better.  Well, no more.  You win SEC.  Alabama now has an established dynasty.  Texas A&M comes to the SEC and finds its freshman, Heisman winning quarterback and arguably should have gone to a BCS bowl game.  Georgia could have made a similar case as Florida did wind up making it to the Sugar Bowl.  South Carolina was also able to join in on the fun as they made a New Year's Day bowl game with a defensive Heisman runner for next year in Jadeveon Clowney.  Their players are bigger, faster, and stronger than any other place in the country.  Honestly, if you're a high school recruit, why go anywhere else?  This conference will continue winning as the loaded recruiting classes keep coming in, and the other power conferences will just turn into conferences.  There will be only one true power conference, and that will be/is the SEC.

If My Predictions Were Correct, A Playoff Would Have Solved Everything
Although the NCAA will use a different type of rankings system next year, the matchups for this year based on BCS rankings would have been #4 Oregon vs #1 Notre Dame and #3 Florida vs #2 Alabama.  One thing we know about the new system is they do allow for more than one team from the same conference to be amongst the teams in the playoffs.  In my opinion, the winners would have been Oregon and Alabama, setting up the most competitive and worthy title game.  Oregon would have won and been crowned the National Champion.  The SEC streak would have ended and Florida would not have had to suffer the embarrassment of losing to Louisville.  Notre Dame would still have gotten blown out, but at least not in the title game.  The argument over a rightful national champion would be over!  Maybe next year.  Wait, definitely next year.  As coach Jim Mora might ask, "Playoffs?  You kiddin me?"

Matty O