World Cup Drama
The 2014 World Cup had already seen its fair share of drama in the group stage, but the four games played so far in the knockout round have surpassed the entire group stage by far. The only dud of the group in terms of drama was the Colombia-Uruguay game, but that was to be expected. Colombia had been playing well and won their group, while Uruguay was without their best player in Luis Suarez. After their match on Saturday, Uruguay were 0-2 without Suarez in this World Cup, while being outscored 5-1. They will need to find other sources of offense in 2018 if they are to have a better World Cup showing.
The other three games, however, all had spectacular drama. Brazil and Chile certainly had the most frantic pace as both squads went up and down the field, almost at will. Even though the full time score was 1-1 after 120 minutes, the chances were there for both squads. Chile's Mauricio Pinilla had an amazing chance in the 120th minute, only to see it ring off the crossbar. It wound up going to PKs with Brazil getting the early 2-0 lead, only to see Chile respond with two of their own with Brazil's Hulk missing wide. Neymar converted his shot to give Brazil the 3-2 advantage. Then, with Brazilians the world over holding their collective breaths, Chile clanked it off the left post to end the game. The host nation lived to see another round, while Chile's impressive effort, in this game and throughout the tournament, came to an end.
Sunday was even crazier as both games saw stoppage time goals; one of them was the game winner, while the other sent the game to extra time. First up was a Dutch squad that played like one of the top three teams in the tournament going up against a good, but underdog, Mexican squad. The first half saw Dutch midfielder Nigel de Jong go off with an injury, but was rather uneventful in terms of scoring chances. Mexico quickly snatched a post halftime lead just three minutes after halftime. The Dutch sent a flurry of offense Mexico's way towards the end of the match, only to be deterred by Guillermo Ochoa and missed chances. Finally, off a corner, Wesley Sneijder fired a rocket into the lower left corner of the net to tie the game in the 88th minute. Both teams were tired, so you knew extra time was going to be a bear. Except, extra time never came. Arjen Robben made another great run into the penalty area, tried to cut back inside, got tripped, and drew a penalty. It was a close call and Robben sold it quite a bit, but there was definitely contact. The PK was converted, sealing Mexico's fate as the Dutch advanced with a 2-1 final.
The final game featured the most unlikely of teams with Costa Rica taking on Greece. I have to admit that I wasn't excited at all about this game and kinda tuned in and out. The ending of the game, however, made up for everything else. Similar to the Dutch, Greece went down almost right after halftime in the 52nd minute. Unlike the Dutch, however, Greece got a gift as Oscar Duarte of Costa Rica, already on a yellow card, got a second yellow in the 66th minute, allowing Greece to play with a man advantage. From then on, it was all Greece as Costa Rica was hanging on for dear life. After numerous crosses and attempts to break through, Greece got a juicy rebound and Sokratis Papastathopoulos got Greece on the board and forced extra time. Unfortunately for the Greeks, even with an extra man, they couldn't get the goal to separate themselves. The game went to PKs as Costa Rica made all five of their attempts to beat Greece 5-3 and keep their Cinderella story going.
Hopefully the rest of the tournament will be as exciting as these past two days have been.
Hope For The U.S.?
The good news for the US is that they made it out of their group, but the bad news is they play one of the "dark horse" favorites in this tournament in Belgium. While I had high hopes for this Belgian squad, and even had them in the final against Brazil before this whole thing started, I have not been impressed at all by them. They actually needed to comeback to beat Algeria, then had two 1-0 results against Russia and South Korea, neither of which were impressive at all. The US, however, beat Ghana despite playing probably their worst game of the three so far, tied Portugal but only due to a perfect Christiano Ronaldo cross in the dying seconds, and battled Germany to a 1-0 loss. No shame in that.
One factor that is still up in the air is the status of Jozy Altidore who has been out since the Ghana game. Rumors are swirling that he might be ready to play, but if he's less than 90% I wouldn't put him out there. They outplayed Portugal and hung around with Germany without him so they can make do if need be. If he truly is fit and ready to play, then the US will get a huge offensive boost against a solid Belgian back line and goalie. Portugal's defense was shaky, Germany's is good, Belgium's is great. He will be a welcome sight for the Americans if he plays.
Another interesting factor in this game is the matchup between Everton teammates Tim Howard (goalie) of the US and Romelu Lukaku (striker) of Belgium. It's always fun to see club teammates go up against each other in the World Cup, and even more so when it is a goalie-striker matchup. They both know each others tendencies, so it will be interesting to see how both of them use that knowledge against the other. I've always thought this kind of matchup favors goalies as they can make the goal smaller, so we'll have to see how that plays out when Lukaku gets a shot off.
Bottom line is that the US has a good chance of pulling the upset. At the start of this tournament I would have said no way, but Belgium have yet to play at their best. One thing the US has been good about in all three games is going all out, even if they are outmatched player for player skill wise. They'll be outmatched in the same way this game, but if Belgium under perform, the US could catch them and advance.
Will It Live Up To The Hype?
The players of the much hyped 2014 NBA draft class now have their own pro teams to play for. The talent throughout this draft is crazy, especially at the top. You could make the argument that, in a different year, any of the top five players would have been a number one overall pick. In the end, however, and possibly due to injury concerns of a certain top prospect, Andrew Wiggins got the honor of being taken number one overall to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Unfortunately for all of us, we probably won't know who did what right until about 2020. All the prospects look awesome now, but so did Greg Oden, Andrew Bynum, and Kwame Brown.
What I'd be more interested in is finding that player later in the draft that got overlooked for one reason or another, only to become a superstar down the road. I got a couple guys that could, keyword being could, be great pros down the road and give their drafting team great bang for their buck. The first player is Louisville guard Russ Smith, who went 47th overall. Smith, a 2014 John Wooden All-American and 2013 National Championship winner, has a good shot and plays great defense. His biggest weaknesses are his height (6'0") and his decision making. Despite being a dynamic scorer, there would be times where he would force shots or try to do too much by himself. His coaches in the NBA can help him with that, as well as how to play the game at such a short height. The skills are there, so if he's put in the proper role with the proper team, I think he can be a solid NBA player.
The second guy that I feel even more confident about is Cleanthony Early. Early was a two time Division III Player of the Year before coming over to Wichita State. In his two years there, he led the Shockers to the Final Four in 2013, a 35-1 record in 2014, and finished as a second team All-American in 2014. He led the Shockers in points and rebounds last year and has athleticism to boot. How he dropped to the second round at 34 overall is beyond me. I think he fits in quite well with the team that drafted him, the New York Knicks. The Knicks just traded Tyson Chandler and Amar'e Stoudemire isn't at all the player he used to be. I think Early could be a nice player for the Knicks under the new Phil Jackson era.
You've Got To Be Kidding
In one of the stranger stories this past week, it has been reported that Jason Kidd is looking to go coach for the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for a 2nd round pick. Apparently both sides are interested but I am confused as to why. From Kidd's perspective, why go? Yes, the Nets are getting older, but your owner is a billionaire and you just went to the playoffs. Given the market and money available, it shouldn't be too hard to lure free agents to Brooklyn and start a winning tradition there.
From the Bucks perspective, why would you want Kidd? Indeed he did make the playoffs, but that was his first year. You're willing to give up a second round pick for a coach entering his second year? I suppose given the youth of the Bucks that perhaps a relatively younger coach like Kidd could help as they build the Bucks up together. Still, I think they're putting way too much faith in Kidd, and would be better off going in another direction. There's a lot of young talent in Milwaukee right now and the last thing you want to do is mess it up with the wrong coach.
Cap Problems
The new salary cap for the NHL was just set this past week at $69 million, which was less than many teams anticipated. With the NHL Draft and free agency coinciding with this announcement, it has left some teams to reconsider how they handle this offseason. With the lower cap, some players who might not have been released will be released, and players asking for more money in contract talks might be disappointed. Since the assumption was that the cap would be higher, some teams may have to gut (release or trade multiple players for financial reasons) their team to simply get under the cap or retain their superstar players asking for better contracts.
In theory, a lower cap favors smaller market teams. With less money to spend on players, it limits what the larger markets like New York and Chicago can do with their teams relative to what markets like Florida and Phoenix can do. Look at baseball, for example, where there is no salary cap. Even though it might not result in guaranteed World Series titles, teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can pretty much pick and choose when it comes to free agency and simply throw money at the players. With a lower cap, a team like Chicago could have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, but perhaps a Marian Hossa or Patrick Sharp can no longer fit in the plans long term. Then they wind up on the Coyotes making the league, in theory, more balanced.
While I am a fan of salary caps, they do have to be carefully set in order for it to truly benefit the league. I don't think the NHL is there yet, but too small of a cap can hurt the league as much as the lack of one. Big market teams are good for the sport and it's good for star players to be on big name teams. Too small of a lockout would result in unhappy players, unhappy owners, and probably another lockout.
ESPYS
Voting is now open for the ESPYS! The award show for sports. Here's the link to vote. Look for a category by category post later on this week.
Matty O
Sunday, June 29, 2014
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Six Sunday Summaries (World Cup Edition)
Contenders
Brazil
While they haven't looked as dominant as they did during the Confederations Cup last summer, they still have to be considered a contender for the title. They currently lead their group and their remaining game is against the weakest team in their group in Cameroon. Even though they tied Mexico, it required Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa to make brilliant save after brilliant save in order for the result to end in a tie. Their opening round knockout stage match is shaping up to be a tough one with either the Netherlands or Chile waiting in the wings. With home country advantage and skill all around the squad, however, they should make a run in the tournament.
Netherlands
While their destruction of Spain got more attention, I was actually more impressed with their game against Australia, especially considering how mediocre Spain played in their second game against Chile. The Dutch opened the scoring as the Australians made a terrible turnover at center half, allowing Arjen Robben to dribble it all the way from there and slam it home for the first goal. Before assumptions could even be made about the outcome of the match, however, Australia's Tim Cahill struck back with what might be the goal of the tournament. Tied at halftime, the Australians made history and actually led the Dutch as they scored on a penalty shot early in the second half. A quick response by Robin Van Persie crushed Australian momentum as another Dutch goal ten minutes later turned out to be the winner in a 3-2 result. We'll know a lot more about the Dutch after their last match with Chile, but with the offensive explosion they are experiencing at this World Cup, they will be a tough out.
Colombia
Many thought that Colombia should be on upset alert after striker Radamel Falcao was announced out for this squad in the World Cup. Instead, in a relatively weak group, this team has thrived, using its speed to frustrate teams. They've also benefited by being Brazil's neighbors to the northwest as crowd support has been massive for them in both of their games so far (to be fair, the other teams in their group are Greece, Japan, and Ivory Coast). They've been shaky at the back at times, but their attacking play has been fantastic and fun to watch.
France
I was hesitant to call France a contender after the first round of games as they were facing Honduras who had ten men for a large part of the game. With the disaster from 2010 still in the back of my mind, I just wasn't ready to declare them having turned a new leaf. Following their decimation of Switzerland on Friday, however, I think it's time to believe. The Swiss are actually ranked higher than France in the FIFA rankings, but that should change after this tournament. Powered by Karim Benzema, who has carried his Champion's League winning form into the World Cup, France looks like arguably the best team in the tournament. They have yet to trail in this tournament and have won both of their games by at least three goals.
Germany
Nothing against Ghana, but the tie with Germany really shocked me. While Ghana played the US tough in a loss, Germany owned Portugal even before Pepe was sent off. It seemed effortless for them as I dubbed them the best looking team after the first round of games. Similar to the Dutch against Australia, the Germans scored first in their second game, but were met with an immediate response and a quick follow up. All of a sudden, with about 25 minutes left, Ghana had the lead over Germany. The Germans, however, had a quick response of their own as Miraslov Klose capped off a wild span of 20 minutes that saw four goals between the two teams. Similar to the Dutch, I think this was a great test of character by the Germans against a team desperate for a win to stay relevant in the group. While they didn't get the game winning goal like the Dutch, they are still in the driver's seat in their group. Regardless of the other teams in the group, if Germany wins or ties their last game against the US, they will win their group and likely avoid a dangerous Belgium squad in the first round of the knockout stage. Consider this a hiccup as I still see them making at least the semi-finals.
Pretenders
Costa Rica
Perhaps I'm just a sucker for rich soccer traditions, but I still don't believe in this Costa Rican team. Yes, they have two wins in two games, but the first was against a Luis Suarez-less Uruguay squad and the second was against an undisciplined Italian squad that was called for an astounding 11 off sides. They are guaranteed to advance, and it would take the meltdown of all meltdowns to not finish as the winner in the group. Winning the group would be crucial as they would avoid Colombia and get either the Ivory Coast, Japan, or Greece. Despite the soft first round knockout matchup, I think any thoughts of them going deep in the tournament will end sooner rather than later.
Argentina
For a team pegged as one of the contenders at the start of the tournament and placed in this group, Argentina have looked far from impressive. They seem to be waiting for Lionel Messi to provide the attack for this group, and so far he has been able to. Their narrow 1-0, extra time Messi goal game against Iran, however, shows how fine the line they are walking on is. They should still win their group to avoid France, but if they draw Switzerland in the opening knockout round, I think they could see an early exit. While the Swiss loss against France doesn't show it, the Swiss have a very good defensive team. If they manage to lock down Messi, even at the risk of letting others gain space, I think the Swiss could give Argentina trouble.
Ah, My Leg Is Snapped In Half! Oh Wait, I'm Better
The selling of calls is getting ridiculous. Touch a player with your fingernail and he'll go down like he just got shot. I understand doing so as the refs are human and sometimes if all you see is a player flailing in the air, you may give him the benefit of the doubt. From an integrity of the game and reputation standpoint, however, it is extremely frustrating. Once a team gets a lead late in a game, you can bet that a player will stay down and roll around longer than he needs to. After enough time has run off, however, he's back up at 100%. I get that they're trying to run the clock, but faking an injury is not alright in my book.
Now, I'm not opposed to all stalling techniques. When the ball goes out of play and maybe you take a little while to get it back in, that's alright. It's similar to sending the pitching coach out to the mound with the sole intention of giving the guy in the bullpen more time to warm up. Fine. But to fake an injury is a no-no. I get angry when I see the same thing in football when teams run hurry up offenses and defensive players just drop like stones to get some rest. Sorry if you can't keep up, just lay down in the backfield and get called for offsides while you get your rest. It has to be frustrating for the refs as well because it is their responsibility to protect the players on the field. It becomes increasingly difficult to determine injury severity if players are faking them. While you do want to keep the game flowing, you also don't want to have the other team pulling on a guy's arm to get him up if he legitimately just broke his arm.
While officials can't make the determination of real or fake injury, the players can, if they so choose, to stop this practice of delaying the game. Unlike in football where if a player goes down the entire game is stopped, in soccer, you can keep going unless a player is bleeding from the head or something like that. While it is proper etiquette to knock the ball out of play with the expectation that you'll get it back, a team isn't required by any rule to do that. All 11 guys could be down, but a team could keep right on playing if they wanted to. I saw a few games in the Premier League this season where teams just kept playing because they were down and needed a goal, but I've seen plenty of instances where the losing team will stop and play the ball out. While commendable, it not only hinders you from your team goal (winning the match), but also encourages this practice.
Referee: Not An Enviable Job
Controversial calls are nothing new to sports in general, and there have been quite a few in this World Cup already. Regardless of whether a call goes for or against the team I'm rooting for, I rarely try and blame the refs. The first reason is because I don't believe any given call costs a team a game. That call might have made it harder on a team, but unless they played a literal flawless game, there is no way you can blame a ref for a singular call. Let's say for instance, there's a zero-zero game in the 95th minute. Team A has a player in the box, doesn't get fouled by Team B, but the ref calls a penalty. Team A scores, game ends 1-0, and the attack on the refs begin. Well, unless Team B had zero total shots, they have nothing to complain about. Why didn't you do better during the other 94 minutes of the game? Why didn't you play better defense so Team A doesn't even get to the box? Thankfully, most players recognize that this is the case, but the majority of fans have no problem blaming one call for their lost game.
The other thing to realize, particularly in soccer, is that the refs don't get the benefit of replay. There's a lot of contact during any soccer game and the amount of times the ref has to make a call or no call is numerous. They actually do a good job and get the call right most of the time. When they get a call wrong, people watching TV will gladly say how horrible the call was...as they watch it in slow motion with a zoomed in camera. Trying to make a call with two men charging at each other trying to play the ball when one of them is partially obscuring your view is an extremely hard task. The next time a call goes against your team, just remember how difficult the ref's job is and give him a break.
CONCACAF Breakthrough
The Confederation of North, Central American, and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF) looks to finally have broken through in this World Cup. Despite the majority of the nations not being known as soccer powerhouses, the United States, Mexico, and particularly Costa Rica have all played well and are still in position to advance to the knockout round. CONCACAF usually just gets brushed to the side when talking about powerful soccer areas as Europe and South America are the two regions that easily come to mind. In this tournament, however, these three teams have tied Portugal, tied host Brazil, beaten Italy, and beaten Uruguay, and looked good doing so. The US and Mexico still have an uphill battle, but Costa Rica are guaranteed to advance. Hopefully this World Cup improves the reputation associated with this area of the world when it comes to soccer. Exposure and success are critical in getting the talented athletes in the States to play soccer instead of football, basketball, etc.
United States Outlook
There's good news and bad news from tonight's draw with Portugal. The good news is that they are still in the hunt and don't have to beat, or even tie Germany, to advance to the next round. The bad news is that there are still scenarios in place that will allow Ghana or Portugal to take the States' place in the next round. Also, they have to play Germany. While beating the Germans would guarantee them a place in the next round, that is far from likely. Even though the Germans tied Ghana, and the US beat Ghana, it will still be a difficult task. I thought the US played their most emotionally invested game against Ghana, and Germany was caught napping after the ease with which they disposed of Portugal. I expect Germany to come out focused with a different starting lineup from the Ghana game, one that should include Bastian Schweinsteiger who has interestingly been left out of the starting lineup the first two games for Germany.
From the US perspective, it will be interesting to see how they respond after that devastating late goal by Portugal. Clint Dempsey looked at full health so that shouldn't be a concern against Germany but the defense still should be. While they played better than the Ghana game, they still folded when it mattered most. They gave Ronaldo a lot of time and space to cross, then failed to cover Varela who scored the winning goal. With Jozy Altidore out, the US cannot afford to get into shootouts with any team, particularly Germany.
The best scenario for the US, or at least the one that require the least effort by the US, is if Ghana and Portugal tie. If that happens, then the US automatically advances. If there is a winner between Ghana and Portugal, then things get interesting. If Ghana or Portugal wins and the US loses, then they would be tied for points and it would come down to goal differential for the first tiebreaker. The US currently sits at +1 in that category while Ghana is at -1 and Portugal is at -4. Despite their tie today, Portugal is pretty much done for as nothing I've seen by either Ghana or Portugal tells me they can win by six goals over Ghana. Ghana beating Portugal by two, however, is certainly possible. If they win by three and the US loses, then Ghana will actually advance along with Germany. After goal differential, they go to goals scored for. Since I expect the US-Germany game to be low scoring and the Portugal-Ghana game to be anything but, then I would not want it to come down to that tiebreaker if you're a US fan.
Personally, I think the US will drop its game to Germany, Ghana and Portugal tie, allowing the US to advance to the knockout round. While this would guarantee an US advance, it would likely set up a first knockout round game against a very talented Belgium squad. The drama will be at an all time high in Group G this Thursday as both games will be going on at the same time. They both start at 11am central with Portugal-Ghana airing on ESPN2 and US-Germany airing on ESPN. Better find a TV that has the picture in picture function.
Matty O
Brazil
While they haven't looked as dominant as they did during the Confederations Cup last summer, they still have to be considered a contender for the title. They currently lead their group and their remaining game is against the weakest team in their group in Cameroon. Even though they tied Mexico, it required Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa to make brilliant save after brilliant save in order for the result to end in a tie. Their opening round knockout stage match is shaping up to be a tough one with either the Netherlands or Chile waiting in the wings. With home country advantage and skill all around the squad, however, they should make a run in the tournament.
Netherlands
While their destruction of Spain got more attention, I was actually more impressed with their game against Australia, especially considering how mediocre Spain played in their second game against Chile. The Dutch opened the scoring as the Australians made a terrible turnover at center half, allowing Arjen Robben to dribble it all the way from there and slam it home for the first goal. Before assumptions could even be made about the outcome of the match, however, Australia's Tim Cahill struck back with what might be the goal of the tournament. Tied at halftime, the Australians made history and actually led the Dutch as they scored on a penalty shot early in the second half. A quick response by Robin Van Persie crushed Australian momentum as another Dutch goal ten minutes later turned out to be the winner in a 3-2 result. We'll know a lot more about the Dutch after their last match with Chile, but with the offensive explosion they are experiencing at this World Cup, they will be a tough out.
Colombia
Many thought that Colombia should be on upset alert after striker Radamel Falcao was announced out for this squad in the World Cup. Instead, in a relatively weak group, this team has thrived, using its speed to frustrate teams. They've also benefited by being Brazil's neighbors to the northwest as crowd support has been massive for them in both of their games so far (to be fair, the other teams in their group are Greece, Japan, and Ivory Coast). They've been shaky at the back at times, but their attacking play has been fantastic and fun to watch.
France
I was hesitant to call France a contender after the first round of games as they were facing Honduras who had ten men for a large part of the game. With the disaster from 2010 still in the back of my mind, I just wasn't ready to declare them having turned a new leaf. Following their decimation of Switzerland on Friday, however, I think it's time to believe. The Swiss are actually ranked higher than France in the FIFA rankings, but that should change after this tournament. Powered by Karim Benzema, who has carried his Champion's League winning form into the World Cup, France looks like arguably the best team in the tournament. They have yet to trail in this tournament and have won both of their games by at least three goals.
Germany
Nothing against Ghana, but the tie with Germany really shocked me. While Ghana played the US tough in a loss, Germany owned Portugal even before Pepe was sent off. It seemed effortless for them as I dubbed them the best looking team after the first round of games. Similar to the Dutch against Australia, the Germans scored first in their second game, but were met with an immediate response and a quick follow up. All of a sudden, with about 25 minutes left, Ghana had the lead over Germany. The Germans, however, had a quick response of their own as Miraslov Klose capped off a wild span of 20 minutes that saw four goals between the two teams. Similar to the Dutch, I think this was a great test of character by the Germans against a team desperate for a win to stay relevant in the group. While they didn't get the game winning goal like the Dutch, they are still in the driver's seat in their group. Regardless of the other teams in the group, if Germany wins or ties their last game against the US, they will win their group and likely avoid a dangerous Belgium squad in the first round of the knockout stage. Consider this a hiccup as I still see them making at least the semi-finals.
Pretenders
Costa Rica
Perhaps I'm just a sucker for rich soccer traditions, but I still don't believe in this Costa Rican team. Yes, they have two wins in two games, but the first was against a Luis Suarez-less Uruguay squad and the second was against an undisciplined Italian squad that was called for an astounding 11 off sides. They are guaranteed to advance, and it would take the meltdown of all meltdowns to not finish as the winner in the group. Winning the group would be crucial as they would avoid Colombia and get either the Ivory Coast, Japan, or Greece. Despite the soft first round knockout matchup, I think any thoughts of them going deep in the tournament will end sooner rather than later.
Argentina
For a team pegged as one of the contenders at the start of the tournament and placed in this group, Argentina have looked far from impressive. They seem to be waiting for Lionel Messi to provide the attack for this group, and so far he has been able to. Their narrow 1-0, extra time Messi goal game against Iran, however, shows how fine the line they are walking on is. They should still win their group to avoid France, but if they draw Switzerland in the opening knockout round, I think they could see an early exit. While the Swiss loss against France doesn't show it, the Swiss have a very good defensive team. If they manage to lock down Messi, even at the risk of letting others gain space, I think the Swiss could give Argentina trouble.
Ah, My Leg Is Snapped In Half! Oh Wait, I'm Better
The selling of calls is getting ridiculous. Touch a player with your fingernail and he'll go down like he just got shot. I understand doing so as the refs are human and sometimes if all you see is a player flailing in the air, you may give him the benefit of the doubt. From an integrity of the game and reputation standpoint, however, it is extremely frustrating. Once a team gets a lead late in a game, you can bet that a player will stay down and roll around longer than he needs to. After enough time has run off, however, he's back up at 100%. I get that they're trying to run the clock, but faking an injury is not alright in my book.
Now, I'm not opposed to all stalling techniques. When the ball goes out of play and maybe you take a little while to get it back in, that's alright. It's similar to sending the pitching coach out to the mound with the sole intention of giving the guy in the bullpen more time to warm up. Fine. But to fake an injury is a no-no. I get angry when I see the same thing in football when teams run hurry up offenses and defensive players just drop like stones to get some rest. Sorry if you can't keep up, just lay down in the backfield and get called for offsides while you get your rest. It has to be frustrating for the refs as well because it is their responsibility to protect the players on the field. It becomes increasingly difficult to determine injury severity if players are faking them. While you do want to keep the game flowing, you also don't want to have the other team pulling on a guy's arm to get him up if he legitimately just broke his arm.
While officials can't make the determination of real or fake injury, the players can, if they so choose, to stop this practice of delaying the game. Unlike in football where if a player goes down the entire game is stopped, in soccer, you can keep going unless a player is bleeding from the head or something like that. While it is proper etiquette to knock the ball out of play with the expectation that you'll get it back, a team isn't required by any rule to do that. All 11 guys could be down, but a team could keep right on playing if they wanted to. I saw a few games in the Premier League this season where teams just kept playing because they were down and needed a goal, but I've seen plenty of instances where the losing team will stop and play the ball out. While commendable, it not only hinders you from your team goal (winning the match), but also encourages this practice.
Referee: Not An Enviable Job
Controversial calls are nothing new to sports in general, and there have been quite a few in this World Cup already. Regardless of whether a call goes for or against the team I'm rooting for, I rarely try and blame the refs. The first reason is because I don't believe any given call costs a team a game. That call might have made it harder on a team, but unless they played a literal flawless game, there is no way you can blame a ref for a singular call. Let's say for instance, there's a zero-zero game in the 95th minute. Team A has a player in the box, doesn't get fouled by Team B, but the ref calls a penalty. Team A scores, game ends 1-0, and the attack on the refs begin. Well, unless Team B had zero total shots, they have nothing to complain about. Why didn't you do better during the other 94 minutes of the game? Why didn't you play better defense so Team A doesn't even get to the box? Thankfully, most players recognize that this is the case, but the majority of fans have no problem blaming one call for their lost game.
The other thing to realize, particularly in soccer, is that the refs don't get the benefit of replay. There's a lot of contact during any soccer game and the amount of times the ref has to make a call or no call is numerous. They actually do a good job and get the call right most of the time. When they get a call wrong, people watching TV will gladly say how horrible the call was...as they watch it in slow motion with a zoomed in camera. Trying to make a call with two men charging at each other trying to play the ball when one of them is partially obscuring your view is an extremely hard task. The next time a call goes against your team, just remember how difficult the ref's job is and give him a break.
CONCACAF Breakthrough
The Confederation of North, Central American, and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF) looks to finally have broken through in this World Cup. Despite the majority of the nations not being known as soccer powerhouses, the United States, Mexico, and particularly Costa Rica have all played well and are still in position to advance to the knockout round. CONCACAF usually just gets brushed to the side when talking about powerful soccer areas as Europe and South America are the two regions that easily come to mind. In this tournament, however, these three teams have tied Portugal, tied host Brazil, beaten Italy, and beaten Uruguay, and looked good doing so. The US and Mexico still have an uphill battle, but Costa Rica are guaranteed to advance. Hopefully this World Cup improves the reputation associated with this area of the world when it comes to soccer. Exposure and success are critical in getting the talented athletes in the States to play soccer instead of football, basketball, etc.
United States Outlook
There's good news and bad news from tonight's draw with Portugal. The good news is that they are still in the hunt and don't have to beat, or even tie Germany, to advance to the next round. The bad news is that there are still scenarios in place that will allow Ghana or Portugal to take the States' place in the next round. Also, they have to play Germany. While beating the Germans would guarantee them a place in the next round, that is far from likely. Even though the Germans tied Ghana, and the US beat Ghana, it will still be a difficult task. I thought the US played their most emotionally invested game against Ghana, and Germany was caught napping after the ease with which they disposed of Portugal. I expect Germany to come out focused with a different starting lineup from the Ghana game, one that should include Bastian Schweinsteiger who has interestingly been left out of the starting lineup the first two games for Germany.
From the US perspective, it will be interesting to see how they respond after that devastating late goal by Portugal. Clint Dempsey looked at full health so that shouldn't be a concern against Germany but the defense still should be. While they played better than the Ghana game, they still folded when it mattered most. They gave Ronaldo a lot of time and space to cross, then failed to cover Varela who scored the winning goal. With Jozy Altidore out, the US cannot afford to get into shootouts with any team, particularly Germany.
The best scenario for the US, or at least the one that require the least effort by the US, is if Ghana and Portugal tie. If that happens, then the US automatically advances. If there is a winner between Ghana and Portugal, then things get interesting. If Ghana or Portugal wins and the US loses, then they would be tied for points and it would come down to goal differential for the first tiebreaker. The US currently sits at +1 in that category while Ghana is at -1 and Portugal is at -4. Despite their tie today, Portugal is pretty much done for as nothing I've seen by either Ghana or Portugal tells me they can win by six goals over Ghana. Ghana beating Portugal by two, however, is certainly possible. If they win by three and the US loses, then Ghana will actually advance along with Germany. After goal differential, they go to goals scored for. Since I expect the US-Germany game to be low scoring and the Portugal-Ghana game to be anything but, then I would not want it to come down to that tiebreaker if you're a US fan.
Personally, I think the US will drop its game to Germany, Ghana and Portugal tie, allowing the US to advance to the knockout round. While this would guarantee an US advance, it would likely set up a first knockout round game against a very talented Belgium squad. The drama will be at an all time high in Group G this Thursday as both games will be going on at the same time. They both start at 11am central with Portugal-Ghana airing on ESPN2 and US-Germany airing on ESPN. Better find a TV that has the picture in picture function.
Matty O
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
World Cup Review (1st Round of Group Stage Matches)
Team of the Tournament
Netherlands
Germany could certainly make an argument of their own for this spot, but the way the Dutch beat the defending champion Spanish squad was simply amazing. What's even more amazing is that they had to come back to do so. Diego Costa, seen as a traitor in Brazil for playing for Spain, was constantly showered with boos, but was making some promising runs in the first half. He got good looks a couple of occasions, but failed to finish. Finally, on another of his runs, he was clipped in the box, as a penalty shot was called. Spain converted, and it seemed like we were heading towards another classic case of Spain winning and the Dutch underachieving.
Then, in a goal that will forever be remembered, Robin Van Persie made a diving header that looped perfectly over a frozen Iker Casillas into the back of the net. While it was a huge momentum boost for them going into halftime, it was still tied and Spain was still the defending champs. In the second half, however, the Dutch absolutely throttled Spain as Spain looked lethargic and old. The Dutch scored four goals in the second half, including two beauties by Arjen Robben, to cap off their convincing victory.
It is now the Dutch that are in the driver's seat in group B. While they are in control, this is no time to relax as Chile also got their three points and are certainly capable of challenging the Dutch. The battle for first place is crucial as the runner up of this group will play the winner of group A. That winner is most likely to be the host country, Brazil.
Disappointment of the Tournament
Portugal
It wasn't just that they lost 4-0 to Germany, it was the way they lost. While you could argue about the quality of the other players on the pitch, the Portuguese boasted the best player in the world in Christiano Ronaldo. There were questions about his health coming into the match, but from what I saw, he looked fine. Portugal as a whole, however, was abysmal. They got a few good looks, particularly in the first half, as they tried to match Germany's attacking play. At the same time, they also would go on breaks and get opportunities, only to squander them with a silly dribble or pass.
Ronaldo was very demonstrative throughout the match as you could see how upset he was when the Portuguese attack fizzled out. Despite going down early, Portugal was still within striking distance to tie the match. The wheels came off, however, when Pepe and Thomas Muller got tangled up. Pepe took exception for what looked like a regular soccer play, got in Muller's face while he was still on the ground and head butted him. The referee saw it and gave Pepe a straight red card, banning him from the rest of that game, as well as Portugal's next game against the US. From that point on, it was almost a moot point that the Germans would win as Portugal couldn't commit as many players to help Ronaldo up front. One Muller hat trick later, and Portugal find themselves on the outside of their group looking in.
Opportunity Knocks
United States
Staying in Group G, the US was able to get by Ghana on a late header from John Brooks to exorcise demons from the past two World Cups. They now sit in second place in the group, tied in points with the Germans. With all the turmoil that the Portuguese are going through, the path is set up for the US to advance. I still don't think they can beat the Germans, and the Germans will beat Ghana, so it really is a fight for runner up in the group. There's certainly a couple scenarios where the US could win the group, but they seem unlikely as they would require the Germans to have a drop off in form.
One concern that the US needs to have, and one that Landon Donovan mentioned on ESPN, is the fact that this was such an emotional game and that it is sometimes hard to turn around and play your next match. The US wanted this game, probably more than any in this group stage, and it showed. The emotion and effort was there, but still, it only counts as one win. If they don't take care of business against Portugal, then this exciting win against Ghana will all be for naught.
Where Is The Defense?
This question seems obvious to ask Spain and Portugal who gave up a combined nine goals, but this could be asked about a lot of teams in the tournament. Even though the US won, their defense was absolutely atrocious. Luckily for them, Ghana does not have the best of all strikers. If they concede those opportunities to Ronaldo next game, then the US could get blown out. I'm not sure if it was lack of experience, lack of communication, a faulty defensive system, or a combination of the three, but Ghana had people free nearly all game. The chances were there with Tim Howard making a couple saves, but most shots missing the frame of goal. They need to shore that up going forward.
Then I look at the host country of Brazil and am not impressed by their defense either. Even though they wound up winning 3-1, including a very questionable penalty to give them their second goal and take the lead, they gave up some good looks to a talented Croatian squad. Brazil gets a bit of a pass as their team was clearly focused on attack and was willing to simply outscore Croatia if need be. They start Dani Alves at defense, even though he's a defensive liability, because he helps so much on the offensive side. They might be able to get away with sloppy defensive play in the group stages, but the knockout stage will be a completely different story.
Down, But Not Out
Spain
Their destruction by the Dutch was certainly a terrible one, both on paper and watching the game. Still, you look at this squad and find it hard to believe that this team can't respond in some way. The best thing Spain has going for them is their bench, which could probably beat a few teams in the World Cup on their own. The starting lineup is guaranteed to have a few changes before their next match, but the drop off in skill will not be nearly as severe as it would with other, less bench-loaded teams. Another thing to remember is that, although it wasn't nearly as devastating as this game, they did lose their World Cup opener in 2010. Then they turned around and won the whole Cup. I don't think they will win it this year, but to count them out after one game, no matter the final score, would be foolish. Since Australia will likely get swept by all the teams in this group, Spain's next match against Chile will likely decide who advances with the Dutch. Win or lose, don't anticipate another blowout.
Uruguay
The highest ranked country in their group, Uruguay now finds itself at the bottom after a shocking opening loss to Costa Rica. It was a convincing loss as well as Uruguay struggled to find offense, tallying their only goal on a penalty kick. Uruguay should feel some sense of hope, however, as striker Luis Suarez wasn't fully back to health. He should play in the next couple games and his talent is such that he can completely change how the Uruguayan squad plays. He had an outstanding season for Liverpool in 2013 and will look to carry that over into the Cup. With England falling to Italy, the matchup between Uruguay and England becomes crucial for advancing to the next round. I don't think Costa Rica continues their upsets, so the Uruguay-England game could be a knockout game in its own right.
Key 2nd Round of Group Stage Matches
June 18th, Spain vs Chile
June 19th, Uruguay vs England
June 20th, Switzerland vs France
June 22nd, Belgium vs Russia
June 22nd, United States vs Portugal
Matty O
Netherlands
Germany could certainly make an argument of their own for this spot, but the way the Dutch beat the defending champion Spanish squad was simply amazing. What's even more amazing is that they had to come back to do so. Diego Costa, seen as a traitor in Brazil for playing for Spain, was constantly showered with boos, but was making some promising runs in the first half. He got good looks a couple of occasions, but failed to finish. Finally, on another of his runs, he was clipped in the box, as a penalty shot was called. Spain converted, and it seemed like we were heading towards another classic case of Spain winning and the Dutch underachieving.
Then, in a goal that will forever be remembered, Robin Van Persie made a diving header that looped perfectly over a frozen Iker Casillas into the back of the net. While it was a huge momentum boost for them going into halftime, it was still tied and Spain was still the defending champs. In the second half, however, the Dutch absolutely throttled Spain as Spain looked lethargic and old. The Dutch scored four goals in the second half, including two beauties by Arjen Robben, to cap off their convincing victory.
It is now the Dutch that are in the driver's seat in group B. While they are in control, this is no time to relax as Chile also got their three points and are certainly capable of challenging the Dutch. The battle for first place is crucial as the runner up of this group will play the winner of group A. That winner is most likely to be the host country, Brazil.
Disappointment of the Tournament
Portugal
It wasn't just that they lost 4-0 to Germany, it was the way they lost. While you could argue about the quality of the other players on the pitch, the Portuguese boasted the best player in the world in Christiano Ronaldo. There were questions about his health coming into the match, but from what I saw, he looked fine. Portugal as a whole, however, was abysmal. They got a few good looks, particularly in the first half, as they tried to match Germany's attacking play. At the same time, they also would go on breaks and get opportunities, only to squander them with a silly dribble or pass.
Ronaldo was very demonstrative throughout the match as you could see how upset he was when the Portuguese attack fizzled out. Despite going down early, Portugal was still within striking distance to tie the match. The wheels came off, however, when Pepe and Thomas Muller got tangled up. Pepe took exception for what looked like a regular soccer play, got in Muller's face while he was still on the ground and head butted him. The referee saw it and gave Pepe a straight red card, banning him from the rest of that game, as well as Portugal's next game against the US. From that point on, it was almost a moot point that the Germans would win as Portugal couldn't commit as many players to help Ronaldo up front. One Muller hat trick later, and Portugal find themselves on the outside of their group looking in.
Opportunity Knocks
United States
Staying in Group G, the US was able to get by Ghana on a late header from John Brooks to exorcise demons from the past two World Cups. They now sit in second place in the group, tied in points with the Germans. With all the turmoil that the Portuguese are going through, the path is set up for the US to advance. I still don't think they can beat the Germans, and the Germans will beat Ghana, so it really is a fight for runner up in the group. There's certainly a couple scenarios where the US could win the group, but they seem unlikely as they would require the Germans to have a drop off in form.
One concern that the US needs to have, and one that Landon Donovan mentioned on ESPN, is the fact that this was such an emotional game and that it is sometimes hard to turn around and play your next match. The US wanted this game, probably more than any in this group stage, and it showed. The emotion and effort was there, but still, it only counts as one win. If they don't take care of business against Portugal, then this exciting win against Ghana will all be for naught.
Where Is The Defense?
This question seems obvious to ask Spain and Portugal who gave up a combined nine goals, but this could be asked about a lot of teams in the tournament. Even though the US won, their defense was absolutely atrocious. Luckily for them, Ghana does not have the best of all strikers. If they concede those opportunities to Ronaldo next game, then the US could get blown out. I'm not sure if it was lack of experience, lack of communication, a faulty defensive system, or a combination of the three, but Ghana had people free nearly all game. The chances were there with Tim Howard making a couple saves, but most shots missing the frame of goal. They need to shore that up going forward.
Then I look at the host country of Brazil and am not impressed by their defense either. Even though they wound up winning 3-1, including a very questionable penalty to give them their second goal and take the lead, they gave up some good looks to a talented Croatian squad. Brazil gets a bit of a pass as their team was clearly focused on attack and was willing to simply outscore Croatia if need be. They start Dani Alves at defense, even though he's a defensive liability, because he helps so much on the offensive side. They might be able to get away with sloppy defensive play in the group stages, but the knockout stage will be a completely different story.
Down, But Not Out
Spain
Their destruction by the Dutch was certainly a terrible one, both on paper and watching the game. Still, you look at this squad and find it hard to believe that this team can't respond in some way. The best thing Spain has going for them is their bench, which could probably beat a few teams in the World Cup on their own. The starting lineup is guaranteed to have a few changes before their next match, but the drop off in skill will not be nearly as severe as it would with other, less bench-loaded teams. Another thing to remember is that, although it wasn't nearly as devastating as this game, they did lose their World Cup opener in 2010. Then they turned around and won the whole Cup. I don't think they will win it this year, but to count them out after one game, no matter the final score, would be foolish. Since Australia will likely get swept by all the teams in this group, Spain's next match against Chile will likely decide who advances with the Dutch. Win or lose, don't anticipate another blowout.
Uruguay
The highest ranked country in their group, Uruguay now finds itself at the bottom after a shocking opening loss to Costa Rica. It was a convincing loss as well as Uruguay struggled to find offense, tallying their only goal on a penalty kick. Uruguay should feel some sense of hope, however, as striker Luis Suarez wasn't fully back to health. He should play in the next couple games and his talent is such that he can completely change how the Uruguayan squad plays. He had an outstanding season for Liverpool in 2013 and will look to carry that over into the Cup. With England falling to Italy, the matchup between Uruguay and England becomes crucial for advancing to the next round. I don't think Costa Rica continues their upsets, so the Uruguay-England game could be a knockout game in its own right.
Key 2nd Round of Group Stage Matches
June 18th, Spain vs Chile
June 19th, Uruguay vs England
June 20th, Switzerland vs France
June 22nd, Belgium vs Russia
June 22nd, United States vs Portugal
Matty O
Monday, June 16, 2014
NBA Finals Wrap Up
Spurs or Heat fan, I doubt a lot of people saw a 4-1 series coming. In arguably the most anticipated Finals matchup since Boston-LA in 2010, the Spurs managed to take two in Miami in convincing fashion after splitting at home the first two games. The Heat came out in Game 5 looking like a team that could be the first ones to come back from a 3-1 NBA Finals series deficit. The Spurs rallied from their slow start and took the lead before halftime. They never looked back as they buried the Heat in the second half, avenging their heartbreaking 4-3 loss to Miami last year. Now is as good a time as any to reflect on these two teams, as well as what the future holds for both of them.
Heat's Legacy
Four trips in a row to the NBA Finals is nothing to sneeze at. There are a lot of teams out there that would love to be able to make four straight NBA Finals. While the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh were the obvious stars of the bunch, they were able to find role players that played crucial roles during each of their runs to the Finals (Mike Miller, Ray Allen, Shane Battier). During this four year run, they have played against the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili, all of whom may one day end up in the Hall of Fame (Duncan and Nowitzki are sure bets to get in).
While the dreams they had of winning three straight titles have been halted by these Spurs, they still drew attention to the NBA and changed the way we think about how teams are assembled. Because of the intense hatred that people had towards the Heat because of the way the team was brought together, people flocked to games and television sets just to see their demise. Television ratings for the Finals had taken a nose dive and was struggling mightily after the Jordan Era ended. Jordan's last series in 1998 against the Jazz drew an 18.7 Nielsen Rating. LeBron James' first NBA Finals when his Cavs played the Spurs? A record low 6.2. In fact, from 2003 to 2009, every NBA Finals series had single digit ratings except for 2004 when the Pistons beat the Lakers in 5. Starting with the Lakers-Celtics series of 2010 and carrying into the Heat Big Three Era, the ratings went back into the double digits as you had the classic matchup in 2010, then the hope that the Heat would fail from 2011-2014. If the Pacers beat the Heat and were playing the Spurs in the Finals, would the ratings have been as high? I doubt it.
The attention surrounding this team and what they accomplished is something that won't be forgotten, even though the time they've been together has just been a flash in the pan. For as great as the San Antonio Spurs are, even they have never won back to back titles. Certainly, it's too soon to predict what will happen with this team going forward, so perhaps their legacy isn't finished yet. As it stands right now though, they will probably be more remembered for the circus it took to bring them together and the disdain people had for them, rather than the back to back titles and success they had on the court.
What's Next For The Heat?
While it might be too soon to predict what will happen, it's certainly fun to guess. There have been a lot of prospects thrown out there, most of them revolving around what James ultimately decides he wants to do. The first, and most interesting prospect, is having Carmelo Anthony come down to South Beach to play with the Heat. The most significant barrier to this, however, is financially. While the NBA has the softest salary cap of the major sports, there are still limits. To pull this move off, Bosh, Wade, and James would all have to opt out of their current contracts to take pay cuts to allow Anthony to join the team.
While this would, once again, be great for the league, I think this would be devastating to all four's legacies, except for Wade because he won a title without the Big Three in 2006 (although Shaq might count as two people). It would be a toss up between Anthony and James to determine whose legacy it hurts more. Anthony would be accused of riding James' coat tails and proving that he can't win a title as the best player on the team. If they don't win a title, Anthony still gets ripped, and possibly blamed, for messing up the Heat's chemistry and proving that he can't get it done when it matters. James would be ripped for needing even more help to win multiple NBA Titles after failing to do so in Cleveland, and going 2-2 in the Finals with the current Big Three. Anthony still does not address their need for a big banger down low, and this would really put a squeeze on them financially to find role players. They could still do it, but if they miss on one or two of them, it will leave their bench in a terrible position.
The other, also interesting option, is for James to opt out and go somewhere else. Should he go back to Cleveland where the Cavs have a great, young core as well as the number one draft pick this year? Should he go to LA and play with Kobe and resurrect the Lakers? Is there another team he has in the back of his mind that is off the radar? Lots of questions to consider for James. Similar to when James decided to go to Miami, there are a couple enticing players that might be looking for a new team as well. Anthony is one, with the other being Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love. Unlike Anthony, Love won't be a free agent until 2015. Love, however, has voiced his frustration about playing for the Timberwolves and some believe that the T-Wolves would rather trade him for some value now, rather than simply lose him next year and receive nothing in return.
Love is arguably the best forward in the game right now, but he just doesn't get the love (pun intended) because he plays in Minnesota. Dwight Howard is still a quality big man, but the attention he got went down significantly once he left LA. If Love had been playing in LA or New York, more people would realize how good this guy is. I think a LeBron-Love duo could wreak havoc in the NBA. Pair them with another superstar and you could have the start of a new dynasty.
The last, and most boring, option would be for the Heat to do nothing. They would once again replace and find new role players to fill their bench, but they would trust the core of the Big Three to carry them back to the Finals. Not only is this the most boring option, but it's also the riskiest. Wade has clearly lost a step and is no longer the player of 2006. Bosh won't be getting any better and, in my opinion, is one of the more overrated big men in the game. James is still the best player in the league, but, as we saw in Cleveland, even he cannot carry a team to a title on his own. If they are able to find a diamond in the rough with every single one of their free agent signings and find the rookie of the year with one of their two draft picks, then it will work out. That's not likely to happen though so something, whether it's adding to the team or blowing it up, needs to happen this offseason.
Spurs Legacy
Since 1999, when the Spurs won their first NBA titles on the backs of Tim Duncan and David Robinson, they have been a model of efficiency in the NBA. Their own Big Three of Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili were all drafted by the Spurs. Also, although he wasn't officially drafted by the Spurs, Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard has played all his NBA games with the Spurs as he was traded to them by the Indiana Pacers shortly after he was drafted by the Pacers. It's a somewhat risky strategy in holding off on signing big name free agents, especially if one of your drafts picks turns out to be a bust. The Spurs stuck to their system as all four of them have flourished under Gregg Popovich and now sit on top of the NBA world.
While they cannot boast back to back titles like the Heat, their run of five titles since 1999, and four with their Big Three intact has been quite amazing. Despite their record and success, they also manage to go through the season and playoffs almost undetected. The focus almost always seems to be in Miami or Chicago or New York or LA. I think they enjoy this lack of attention as they just keep building momentum during the season, then unleash all their hard work on their opponents during the playoffs. This lack of attention also has the negative side effect of their greatness sometimes getting overlooked. Everyone wants to matchup the Heat against legendary teams from the past, but what about these Spurs?
They have a dominant big man (Duncan), skilled point guard (Parker), and a very deep bench (Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli). I could see them being able to hold their own against the likes of Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, and Bird's Celtics. I could not say the same about this year's Heat. Popovich is the brains behind the whole thing as he has gotten his players to buy into true team basketball and to play within his system to maximize their potential. That is why guys like Parker and Ginobili have become so successful. While Duncan was drafted first overall and was a superstar in the making, Parker was drafted at the end of the first round and Ginobili wasn't taken until the end of the second round with neither having played college ball in the US. Most players with that story don't work out, but the Spurs found a way to get the best out of them. That's not to say they would not have been successful elsewhere, but I doubt they would have been embraced and trusted the way they were in San Antonio.
The best part going forward with this team is that the 22 year old Leonard won the Finals MVP and looks poised to become a star in this league. He will have to carry the torch as guys like Duncan (38 years old), Ginobili (36), and Parker (32) are all chasing father time at this point. Duncan might even call it quits after winning this last championship. Either way, Leonard could soon become the face of this franchise and be counted on to compete in a brutal Western Conference. If the Spurs keep drafting and signing the right guys to fit their system, I have no doubt that they will continue to contend.
Give Coaches A Chance
In today's day and age, the most common question for coaches is, "What have you done for me lately?" While this can be a good thing if the coach has overstayed his welcome or simply isn't that good, it can also be a bad thing in that it kicks coaches to the curb far too quickly. If a team is performing poorly, one solution that front offices are quick to jump to is to fire the coach just to "shake things up." The problem is you can shake yourself back about three or four years if you do that. I think that more coaches should get more time to not only implement their system, but gain the trust of the players to give 100%.
If a coach truly doesn't connect to the players in any way, or has been chosen simply as an interim head coach, then yes, pull the plug when you need to. Some teams however, feel like pulling the plug on coaches that simply need more time. The most recent example I can think of is with the LA Lakers. You might think I'm talking about Mike D'Antoni, but I'm actually talking about the guy who preceded him, Mike Brown.
Brown was coming off a successful, but title-less, run with LeBron and the Cavs leading them to at least the Conference Semifinals every year he was there, and one year to the NBA Finals, where they were swept by the Spurs. If Erik Spoelstra gets credit for taking this Heat team to the Finals and losing, then Brown should get two spots in the Hall of Fame for taking a far inferior Cavs team to the Finals and failing to win just one more game than the Heat did in the final series. Then he comes to LA in 2011 and leads the Lakers to third place in the West, while getting the best year out of perennial bust Andrew Bynum. The Lakers lost in the Conference Semifinals to a Thunder team that wound up in the NBA Finals. Not a bad year. The very next year, Brown wants to use a Princeton offense as the team acquires Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. The Lakers start off badly, going 1-4, and Brown is fired after five games. FIVE! This happened while Nash, Kobe, and Dwight were all at less than 100%
Now, I'm not saying Brown would have led them to multiple straight titles. We'll never really know the answer to that. What I am saying is that giving a coach one year and five games to fully implement their system while acquiring new starters in the process is not the easiest of challenges. Imagine if we gave every President one year and five days as their term. No one would get reelected because that is an extremely short amount of time to implement anything worthwhile and to get an entire organization, or nation, to buy into it. It is the resistance to this knee jerk method of replacing coaches that has allowed Popovich to have his system grow and to truly create a culture of winning.
Popovich didn't win a NBA title until his third year with the Spurs. Does Brown win a title with the Lakers if he stays three years? Hmmm. In fact, Pop went an abysmal 17-47 in his first partial season of coaching. In his second year, he made the playoffs but, like Brown, lost in the Conference Semifinals. Now, 16 seasons later, he has a NBA championship for each finger on his hand. I'm not sure if the five titles or his tenure as coach for 17 full seasons is more amazing. The point is that I think players, coaches, owners, and GMs need more stability throughout the organization. While it may be tempting to fire a coach or GM, or trade a player, keeping the right one can give you sustained success and multiple trips to the top of your sport.
Depth vs Star Power
Even though the NBA has a soft salary cap, there is only so much money to go around. Even in a no cap environment like baseball, teams cannot simply buy the best players at each position. Miguel Cabrera is the best first baseman in baseball, but he's still on the Tigers, not on the Yankees. This means that, eventually, you'll need role players that cost less money to fill the void behind your superstars. The problem is that if you have too many star players demanding higher salaries, you're much more restricted in the quality of role players you can get. Since all role players are not created equal, the way a team is assembled will have a great impact in how well they do during the season and into the playoffs.
To me, the Spurs represent the depth in this scenario while the Heat represent star power. LeBron James is asked to play so many minutes in part because of his athleticism, but also because their bench is so shallow. Certainly Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers have helped the Heat out in the past, and Birdman and Battier can give Bosh some rest, but I don't think anyone is looking for the Sixth Man of the Year award on the Heat.
Switching sides to the Spurs and you have a wealth of "role players." That's in quotes for the Spurs because while some of them come off the bench, they're actually good enough to start for a lot of teams in this league. Ginobili comes off the bench most games. Danny Green, a streaky but good shooter, is considered a role player and will sometimes come off the bench. Boris Diaw, one of the best passing big men in the game and an actual starter for the Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Bobcats, had been used off the bench but worked his way into the starting lineup for the Spurs. When Duncan or Parker come off, the drop off is not nearly as severe as when James steps off the floor for the Heat (see Game 1 of this series).
I've always thought that a deep team is better than a top heavy one. If there was a way, like in video games, to turn injuries off, then a star loaded team wins every time. Unfortunately, that's not reality and if something happens to just one of those star players, on or off the playing field, then the integrity of the system is in trouble. In this series, it was Wade who showed the world that father time catches up to even the best athletes. His shooting percentage was atrocious as he tried to play like 2006 Wade, which resulted in 2014 Wade results. Bosh actually turned in a solid playoffs and series, but it really was like the Big Three turned into the Big Two. Without that third star to go along with, the Heat turned into an only slightly better version of LeBron's Cavs that were swept by the Spurs. Without the depth to compensate for this loss, the Heat folded as the Spurs and their bench trampled them down the stretch in every game except Game 2.
Greatness In Perspective
I can't speak for the great teams prior to the 90s because I didn't get a chance to see them play. What I can speak for is the Jordan Era Bulls that took the NBA by storm during the 90s. Since Jordan is widely considered the greatest of all time, James is constantly being compared to him and, consequently, his Heat teams are compared to Jordan's Bulls teams. I don't think that any of the Big Three teams could have beat Jordan's Bulls, particularly the 1995-96 version. They went a ridiculous 72-10 during the regular season and lost three times during the entire playoffs. Also, for anyone suggesting that the competition was easier back then, just look at the joke that was the Eastern Conference this year. The team with the best record, Indiana, didn't even come close to the 72-10 mark as the Pacers finished 56-26.
Even if you take a look at the Spurs and their accomplishments, it still comes up short to what Jordan and the Bulls did. Two three peats, although you could very easily argue that the Bulls would have won eight straight had Jordan not gone to play baseball. In the 1993-94 season, the Bulls made it to the Conference Semifinals and pushed the Knicks to seven games. In the 1994-95 season, the Bulls made it to the Conference Semifinals and pushed the Magic to six games. If James, the best player in the game, can take a last place Cavs team to the NBA Finals, then I would think that Jordan would have been able to get a Conference Semifinals losing Bulls team to two more NBA titles.
The Spurs are still working for six, and have had everyone from their core group the entire time (exception: David Robinson when he retired). The team of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan have even lost in the first round...twice! I don't think the Spurs or the Heat can match the greatness that the Bulls presented. I think the only recent team that comes close was the Kobe-Shaq Lakers of the early 2000s. Had they not had their personal differences, I think that combination and the players they had around them, could have challenged six straight, not just two separate three peats. A title next year would certainly help the Spurs' argument in this debate, but considering how hard it is to repeat, I still have my doubts.
Matty O
Heat's Legacy
Four trips in a row to the NBA Finals is nothing to sneeze at. There are a lot of teams out there that would love to be able to make four straight NBA Finals. While the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh were the obvious stars of the bunch, they were able to find role players that played crucial roles during each of their runs to the Finals (Mike Miller, Ray Allen, Shane Battier). During this four year run, they have played against the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili, all of whom may one day end up in the Hall of Fame (Duncan and Nowitzki are sure bets to get in).
While the dreams they had of winning three straight titles have been halted by these Spurs, they still drew attention to the NBA and changed the way we think about how teams are assembled. Because of the intense hatred that people had towards the Heat because of the way the team was brought together, people flocked to games and television sets just to see their demise. Television ratings for the Finals had taken a nose dive and was struggling mightily after the Jordan Era ended. Jordan's last series in 1998 against the Jazz drew an 18.7 Nielsen Rating. LeBron James' first NBA Finals when his Cavs played the Spurs? A record low 6.2. In fact, from 2003 to 2009, every NBA Finals series had single digit ratings except for 2004 when the Pistons beat the Lakers in 5. Starting with the Lakers-Celtics series of 2010 and carrying into the Heat Big Three Era, the ratings went back into the double digits as you had the classic matchup in 2010, then the hope that the Heat would fail from 2011-2014. If the Pacers beat the Heat and were playing the Spurs in the Finals, would the ratings have been as high? I doubt it.
The attention surrounding this team and what they accomplished is something that won't be forgotten, even though the time they've been together has just been a flash in the pan. For as great as the San Antonio Spurs are, even they have never won back to back titles. Certainly, it's too soon to predict what will happen with this team going forward, so perhaps their legacy isn't finished yet. As it stands right now though, they will probably be more remembered for the circus it took to bring them together and the disdain people had for them, rather than the back to back titles and success they had on the court.
What's Next For The Heat?
While it might be too soon to predict what will happen, it's certainly fun to guess. There have been a lot of prospects thrown out there, most of them revolving around what James ultimately decides he wants to do. The first, and most interesting prospect, is having Carmelo Anthony come down to South Beach to play with the Heat. The most significant barrier to this, however, is financially. While the NBA has the softest salary cap of the major sports, there are still limits. To pull this move off, Bosh, Wade, and James would all have to opt out of their current contracts to take pay cuts to allow Anthony to join the team.
While this would, once again, be great for the league, I think this would be devastating to all four's legacies, except for Wade because he won a title without the Big Three in 2006 (although Shaq might count as two people). It would be a toss up between Anthony and James to determine whose legacy it hurts more. Anthony would be accused of riding James' coat tails and proving that he can't win a title as the best player on the team. If they don't win a title, Anthony still gets ripped, and possibly blamed, for messing up the Heat's chemistry and proving that he can't get it done when it matters. James would be ripped for needing even more help to win multiple NBA Titles after failing to do so in Cleveland, and going 2-2 in the Finals with the current Big Three. Anthony still does not address their need for a big banger down low, and this would really put a squeeze on them financially to find role players. They could still do it, but if they miss on one or two of them, it will leave their bench in a terrible position.
The other, also interesting option, is for James to opt out and go somewhere else. Should he go back to Cleveland where the Cavs have a great, young core as well as the number one draft pick this year? Should he go to LA and play with Kobe and resurrect the Lakers? Is there another team he has in the back of his mind that is off the radar? Lots of questions to consider for James. Similar to when James decided to go to Miami, there are a couple enticing players that might be looking for a new team as well. Anthony is one, with the other being Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love. Unlike Anthony, Love won't be a free agent until 2015. Love, however, has voiced his frustration about playing for the Timberwolves and some believe that the T-Wolves would rather trade him for some value now, rather than simply lose him next year and receive nothing in return.
Love is arguably the best forward in the game right now, but he just doesn't get the love (pun intended) because he plays in Minnesota. Dwight Howard is still a quality big man, but the attention he got went down significantly once he left LA. If Love had been playing in LA or New York, more people would realize how good this guy is. I think a LeBron-Love duo could wreak havoc in the NBA. Pair them with another superstar and you could have the start of a new dynasty.
The last, and most boring, option would be for the Heat to do nothing. They would once again replace and find new role players to fill their bench, but they would trust the core of the Big Three to carry them back to the Finals. Not only is this the most boring option, but it's also the riskiest. Wade has clearly lost a step and is no longer the player of 2006. Bosh won't be getting any better and, in my opinion, is one of the more overrated big men in the game. James is still the best player in the league, but, as we saw in Cleveland, even he cannot carry a team to a title on his own. If they are able to find a diamond in the rough with every single one of their free agent signings and find the rookie of the year with one of their two draft picks, then it will work out. That's not likely to happen though so something, whether it's adding to the team or blowing it up, needs to happen this offseason.
Spurs Legacy
Since 1999, when the Spurs won their first NBA titles on the backs of Tim Duncan and David Robinson, they have been a model of efficiency in the NBA. Their own Big Three of Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili were all drafted by the Spurs. Also, although he wasn't officially drafted by the Spurs, Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard has played all his NBA games with the Spurs as he was traded to them by the Indiana Pacers shortly after he was drafted by the Pacers. It's a somewhat risky strategy in holding off on signing big name free agents, especially if one of your drafts picks turns out to be a bust. The Spurs stuck to their system as all four of them have flourished under Gregg Popovich and now sit on top of the NBA world.
While they cannot boast back to back titles like the Heat, their run of five titles since 1999, and four with their Big Three intact has been quite amazing. Despite their record and success, they also manage to go through the season and playoffs almost undetected. The focus almost always seems to be in Miami or Chicago or New York or LA. I think they enjoy this lack of attention as they just keep building momentum during the season, then unleash all their hard work on their opponents during the playoffs. This lack of attention also has the negative side effect of their greatness sometimes getting overlooked. Everyone wants to matchup the Heat against legendary teams from the past, but what about these Spurs?
They have a dominant big man (Duncan), skilled point guard (Parker), and a very deep bench (Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli). I could see them being able to hold their own against the likes of Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, and Bird's Celtics. I could not say the same about this year's Heat. Popovich is the brains behind the whole thing as he has gotten his players to buy into true team basketball and to play within his system to maximize their potential. That is why guys like Parker and Ginobili have become so successful. While Duncan was drafted first overall and was a superstar in the making, Parker was drafted at the end of the first round and Ginobili wasn't taken until the end of the second round with neither having played college ball in the US. Most players with that story don't work out, but the Spurs found a way to get the best out of them. That's not to say they would not have been successful elsewhere, but I doubt they would have been embraced and trusted the way they were in San Antonio.
The best part going forward with this team is that the 22 year old Leonard won the Finals MVP and looks poised to become a star in this league. He will have to carry the torch as guys like Duncan (38 years old), Ginobili (36), and Parker (32) are all chasing father time at this point. Duncan might even call it quits after winning this last championship. Either way, Leonard could soon become the face of this franchise and be counted on to compete in a brutal Western Conference. If the Spurs keep drafting and signing the right guys to fit their system, I have no doubt that they will continue to contend.
Give Coaches A Chance
In today's day and age, the most common question for coaches is, "What have you done for me lately?" While this can be a good thing if the coach has overstayed his welcome or simply isn't that good, it can also be a bad thing in that it kicks coaches to the curb far too quickly. If a team is performing poorly, one solution that front offices are quick to jump to is to fire the coach just to "shake things up." The problem is you can shake yourself back about three or four years if you do that. I think that more coaches should get more time to not only implement their system, but gain the trust of the players to give 100%.
If a coach truly doesn't connect to the players in any way, or has been chosen simply as an interim head coach, then yes, pull the plug when you need to. Some teams however, feel like pulling the plug on coaches that simply need more time. The most recent example I can think of is with the LA Lakers. You might think I'm talking about Mike D'Antoni, but I'm actually talking about the guy who preceded him, Mike Brown.
Brown was coming off a successful, but title-less, run with LeBron and the Cavs leading them to at least the Conference Semifinals every year he was there, and one year to the NBA Finals, where they were swept by the Spurs. If Erik Spoelstra gets credit for taking this Heat team to the Finals and losing, then Brown should get two spots in the Hall of Fame for taking a far inferior Cavs team to the Finals and failing to win just one more game than the Heat did in the final series. Then he comes to LA in 2011 and leads the Lakers to third place in the West, while getting the best year out of perennial bust Andrew Bynum. The Lakers lost in the Conference Semifinals to a Thunder team that wound up in the NBA Finals. Not a bad year. The very next year, Brown wants to use a Princeton offense as the team acquires Steve Nash and Dwight Howard. The Lakers start off badly, going 1-4, and Brown is fired after five games. FIVE! This happened while Nash, Kobe, and Dwight were all at less than 100%
Now, I'm not saying Brown would have led them to multiple straight titles. We'll never really know the answer to that. What I am saying is that giving a coach one year and five games to fully implement their system while acquiring new starters in the process is not the easiest of challenges. Imagine if we gave every President one year and five days as their term. No one would get reelected because that is an extremely short amount of time to implement anything worthwhile and to get an entire organization, or nation, to buy into it. It is the resistance to this knee jerk method of replacing coaches that has allowed Popovich to have his system grow and to truly create a culture of winning.
Popovich didn't win a NBA title until his third year with the Spurs. Does Brown win a title with the Lakers if he stays three years? Hmmm. In fact, Pop went an abysmal 17-47 in his first partial season of coaching. In his second year, he made the playoffs but, like Brown, lost in the Conference Semifinals. Now, 16 seasons later, he has a NBA championship for each finger on his hand. I'm not sure if the five titles or his tenure as coach for 17 full seasons is more amazing. The point is that I think players, coaches, owners, and GMs need more stability throughout the organization. While it may be tempting to fire a coach or GM, or trade a player, keeping the right one can give you sustained success and multiple trips to the top of your sport.
Depth vs Star Power
Even though the NBA has a soft salary cap, there is only so much money to go around. Even in a no cap environment like baseball, teams cannot simply buy the best players at each position. Miguel Cabrera is the best first baseman in baseball, but he's still on the Tigers, not on the Yankees. This means that, eventually, you'll need role players that cost less money to fill the void behind your superstars. The problem is that if you have too many star players demanding higher salaries, you're much more restricted in the quality of role players you can get. Since all role players are not created equal, the way a team is assembled will have a great impact in how well they do during the season and into the playoffs.
To me, the Spurs represent the depth in this scenario while the Heat represent star power. LeBron James is asked to play so many minutes in part because of his athleticism, but also because their bench is so shallow. Certainly Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers have helped the Heat out in the past, and Birdman and Battier can give Bosh some rest, but I don't think anyone is looking for the Sixth Man of the Year award on the Heat.
Switching sides to the Spurs and you have a wealth of "role players." That's in quotes for the Spurs because while some of them come off the bench, they're actually good enough to start for a lot of teams in this league. Ginobili comes off the bench most games. Danny Green, a streaky but good shooter, is considered a role player and will sometimes come off the bench. Boris Diaw, one of the best passing big men in the game and an actual starter for the Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Bobcats, had been used off the bench but worked his way into the starting lineup for the Spurs. When Duncan or Parker come off, the drop off is not nearly as severe as when James steps off the floor for the Heat (see Game 1 of this series).
I've always thought that a deep team is better than a top heavy one. If there was a way, like in video games, to turn injuries off, then a star loaded team wins every time. Unfortunately, that's not reality and if something happens to just one of those star players, on or off the playing field, then the integrity of the system is in trouble. In this series, it was Wade who showed the world that father time catches up to even the best athletes. His shooting percentage was atrocious as he tried to play like 2006 Wade, which resulted in 2014 Wade results. Bosh actually turned in a solid playoffs and series, but it really was like the Big Three turned into the Big Two. Without that third star to go along with, the Heat turned into an only slightly better version of LeBron's Cavs that were swept by the Spurs. Without the depth to compensate for this loss, the Heat folded as the Spurs and their bench trampled them down the stretch in every game except Game 2.
Greatness In Perspective
I can't speak for the great teams prior to the 90s because I didn't get a chance to see them play. What I can speak for is the Jordan Era Bulls that took the NBA by storm during the 90s. Since Jordan is widely considered the greatest of all time, James is constantly being compared to him and, consequently, his Heat teams are compared to Jordan's Bulls teams. I don't think that any of the Big Three teams could have beat Jordan's Bulls, particularly the 1995-96 version. They went a ridiculous 72-10 during the regular season and lost three times during the entire playoffs. Also, for anyone suggesting that the competition was easier back then, just look at the joke that was the Eastern Conference this year. The team with the best record, Indiana, didn't even come close to the 72-10 mark as the Pacers finished 56-26.
Even if you take a look at the Spurs and their accomplishments, it still comes up short to what Jordan and the Bulls did. Two three peats, although you could very easily argue that the Bulls would have won eight straight had Jordan not gone to play baseball. In the 1993-94 season, the Bulls made it to the Conference Semifinals and pushed the Knicks to seven games. In the 1994-95 season, the Bulls made it to the Conference Semifinals and pushed the Magic to six games. If James, the best player in the game, can take a last place Cavs team to the NBA Finals, then I would think that Jordan would have been able to get a Conference Semifinals losing Bulls team to two more NBA titles.
The Spurs are still working for six, and have had everyone from their core group the entire time (exception: David Robinson when he retired). The team of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan have even lost in the first round...twice! I don't think the Spurs or the Heat can match the greatness that the Bulls presented. I think the only recent team that comes close was the Kobe-Shaq Lakers of the early 2000s. Had they not had their personal differences, I think that combination and the players they had around them, could have challenged six straight, not just two separate three peats. A title next year would certainly help the Spurs' argument in this debate, but considering how hard it is to repeat, I still have my doubts.
Matty O
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
It's A Hard Knock Life, For Them
The HBO show Hard Knocks, which follows a NFL team during training camp and preseason, is entering its ninth season but has yet to select a team. In 2013, the NFL passed a rule that allows the league to force a team to be on Hard Knocks unless they are exempt. Teams can be exempt from being on hard knocks if they have a new head coach, if they have made the postseason in one of the last two seasons, and/or if they were on the show in the last 10 years. Teams can still volunteer to be on Hard Knocks, but if there are no volunteers then the NFL can force a team if they do not meet any of those criteria. This year, the teams that potentially could be forced to appear on Hard Knocks are the Chicago Bears, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
While there are a couple intriguing names amongst those teams, most of them don't really have much going for them in terms of intriguing storylines and entertainment. With that in mind, I'd like to mention my Top 10 for teams that would be the best for Hard Knocks, regardless of the criteria that exempts teams. Some are from the pool of teams that can be forced to do it, but most are from teams that are exempt, but can still volunteer.
10. Dallas Cowboys
My team, and America's team, is always good for drama. They were on the show back in 2008, so they are exempt from being forced to do it. While that year was entertaining, this year has more intrigue and questions surrounding it. For starters, Tony Romo is coming back from back surgery and has to be seeing his window of opportunity closing in Dallas in win a Super Bowl. Dez Bryant has recently said that he deserves to be paid as one of the top receivers, if not the best receiver, in the game. While I agree with that statement, it will be interesting to see how contract talks go.
While the offensive side of the ball has its storylines, the defensive side is where it gets entertaining because there is so much uncertainty surrounding it. They lost DeMarcus Ware in free agency and Sean Lee once again got injured, this time in OTAs. They will need to find a replacement for both of them during OTAs and training camp. Rod Marinelli, the Cowboys' defensive line coach last year, has been promoted to defensive coordinator. I think this will help out this defense a lot considering the lack of raw talent on the defensive side of the ball. He's going to need to find diamonds in the rough and come up with creative schemes to try and hide some of the glaring weaknesses they have on defense.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are intriguing because of all the newness that they have this year. Lovie Smith is the new head coach, Josh McCown is a new quarterback, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are two pass catching giants they drafted, and Alterraun Verner is a talented corner coming from Tennessee to try and compensate for the loss of Darrelle Revis. It appears as though the Bucs are trying to replicate what McCown had in Chicago, and that is tall, physical pass catchers that can fight for the ball. In Chicago, McCown had 6'4" Brandon Marshall, 6'3" Alshon Jeffery, and 6'6" Martellus Bennett. In Tampa, McCown will now be throwing to 6'5" Vincent Jackson, 6'5" Evans, and 6'6" Seferian-Jenkins. This is great for replicating the Bears system, but McCown still might not be the starter.
Mike Glennon, the Bucs third round pick last year, had an up and down rookie season, but proved that he can at least do decent in the NFL. While he only finished with 2,608 yards passing, he did have a 19 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio. He only won four games, but pushed the Seahawks to overtime in Seattle before falling by a field goal. I think the battle for starter between Glennon and McCown will be closer than people think as Glennon currently is on the outside looking in.
The departure of Revis, one of the best corners in the game, cannot be overlooked. The Bucs realized that by signing Verner, although I don't think he's reached Revis' skill level yet but I think he can. Add in that Lovie is a defensive minded coach, and I think he can continue to improve this young defense. It probably won't happen this year, but if he can get players to buy into his system and improve as individuals, they should have better showings in the future against division quarterbacks Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton.
8. New York Jets
Similar to the Cowboys, the Jets have already been on Hard Knocks back in 2010. While they were fairly sure of who was going to start on offense back in 2010, things are a bit muddier this time around. Geno Smith, the incumbent, will be battling veteran Michael Vick for the starting job. The big debate going on is do you allow Smith to progress by playing him and having an okay record, or allow Vick to come in and try to produce his Atlanta magic and lead this team to the playoffs? Another issue is the position right behind the QB and the position the QB will be throwing to. The Jets picked up Chris Johnson in free agency who has gone from CJ2K in 2009 to CJBarelyK in 2013, prompting the Titans to part ways with him. A few years ago, it would be a no brainer that he's the starter, but Chris Ivory showed flashes last year and I wouldn't be surprised if there's some kind of split that develops there.
On the outside, the Jets picked up Eric Decker and...no one else. Well, they actually picked up Jacoby Ford and drafted Shaq Evans, but c'mon. Their receiving corps doesn't scare anyone. With Smith, or a less-mobile-than-he-used-to-be Vick starting, I think the Jets should have done more to emphasize getting weapons around both of these QBs. It will be interesting to see who will emerge and develop some kind of chemistry with either one of them.
7. Seattle Seahawks
I wouldn't say this team has a lot of questions at positions, but they would surely be entertaining (except Marshawn Lynch). The obvious ringleader for this show would be Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom. I think he, more than anyone in the league, would relish having cameras around 24/7. Then you have the rah rah coach Pete Carroll who shows his emotion more than a lot of other coaches in the NFL. The only real positional battle that would be intriguing is out at WR. They lost Golden Tate to the Lions, and the only new players at that position are three rookies they drafted this year. Their best WR is Percy Harvin, but he's been anything but a picture of health (has played in only 12 games the past two years in Minnesota and Seattle). I would also like to see what the Seahawks think they need to improve, even though they won a Super Bowl. Teams improve and change every year so if the Seahawks want to repeat, they cannot be satisfied and stand back without changing and improving in certain areas.
6. Cleveland Browns
Johnny Manziel. That is all.
Just kidding, there's actually more to this team than just him. Manziel would certainly be the focal point though as he tries to win the starting job against the starter from last year and Ohio native, Brian Hoyer. Hoyer only started three games last year, but the Browns won all three, although he was injured in the third and never played the rest of the year. The Browns were 3-2 when he went out, and they finished the year 4-12. The coaches will have to decide if they want the flash (Manziel) or the calm (Hoyer).
Then there's the whole Josh Gordon saga, that might clear up before Hard Knocks would even begin. Gordon failed a drug test again, putting him at risk for a year long suspension. This wouldn't be a big deal if he was a third stringer, but he proved to be the Browns' best WR last year, and one of the best ones in the league. Despite knowing the potential suspension, the Browns were stubborn to a fault and refused to draft a WR in a fairly deep class. Even if Gordon isn't suspended, they don't have someone behind him to draw coverage away. They picked up veterans Miles Austin, Earl Bennett, and Nate Burleson, but each come with their own questions (injury, lack of production). Someone is bound to emerge during training camp, I just couldn't tell you who.
One great thing that would come from the Browns on Hard Knocks is allowing people to realize that this defense is pretty good. A good defense isn't usually associated with a 4-12 team, but the Browns finished 9th in overall defense last year and 6th in passing defense thanks to cover corner Joe Haden. The Browns finally got a corner to play opposite Haden by drafting Justin Gilbert out of Oklahoma State in the first round. It looks like they're building their defense like Arizona has built theirs with solid cover corners and letting everything else fall into place. Safety is still an issue, but their front seven is decent. Unfortunately, the Browns declined Hard Knocks this past week so we won't be seeing them this year.
5. Houston Texans
These last five really could have been put in any order as they all have their fair share of intrigue. Talk about the Texans recently has circled around their number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. I think Hard Knocks could be great for Clowney considering one of the knocks against him coming out of college was his lack of work ethic. Here, he could show the hard work he puts in during the week away from game day. He now joins a defense looking to slow down Andrew Luck and claim the AFC South.
The offensive side is much more worrisome. Andre Johnson, arguably their best player and lifetime Houston Texan, is extremely unhappy with the way the Texans' front office is assembling this team. His view is that they are rebuilding and, at 32 without even a whiff of the Super Bowl, Johnson wants to be on a contender. In truth, there's very little he can do because of his contract, but you have to wonder how committed he will be to giving it his all in training camp and throughout the season. He's a great player and far from a "diva" WR, but it is hard to get 100% effort from an unhappy employee in any job.
The Texans, similar to the Browns, were also incredibly stubborn by not taking a QB during the draft until the end of the fourth round when they took Pittsburgh's Tom Savage. There were some experts that believed Savage can be a good QB in this league, and maybe he can. But when your current QBs are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates, I would think the urgency would be greater if you truly want to win now. Out of those four, it's anyone guess who will win the starting job. Fitzpatrick had his moments in Buffalo, Savage is a rookie, Keenum played eight games last year and lost all eight with a 9 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, and Yates has a career 3 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, but did win a playoff game in 2012 for the Texans.
4. Oakland Raiders
Unlike teams that built themselves during the draft, the Raiders decided to throw money around in free agency and improve their team that way. They brought in Antonio Smith from the Texans, Carlos Rogers from the 49ers, James Jones from the Pack, Justin Tuck from the Giants, LaMarr Woodley from the Steelers, Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars, and traded for Matt Schaub from the Texans. Wow, welcome to the team. Schuab was an interesting trade considering the dreadful year that he had for the Texans (10 TDs, 14 INTs, 2,310 yards). The Raiders are banking on the fact that he has been a 4,000+ yard passer three times in his career and that last year was just a fluke. The Raiders hedged their bet by taking Derek Carr in the second round. Believed by some to be a first round, even top 10 talent, Carr will battle with Schuab to determine the starting QB.
Jones-Drew enters an interesting situation because Darren McFadden is still in Oakland. They're almost complete opposites with McFadden wanting space to use his speed, and Jones-Drew being a little bowling ball with enough quickness to bounce it outside if need be. There's also the fact that McFadden has bones made of glass and has yet to play more than 13 games in six years, whereas Jones-Drew has played 15 or more games six times in his eight year career. Will they play them both in a thunder and lightning kind of role? Will they allow one to take over the starting job with the other getting little touches? Will we see some Wildcat? A lot of uncertainty, but a lot of excitement as well at that position.
The defense is where they need the most improvement, and I think they got it with their free agent signings and by taking Khalil Mack fifth overall in this year's draft. In a division with Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, and Phillip Rivers, the Raiders need to have players to slow them down. They went 1-5 in the division last year including giving up 34+ to the Broncos twice, and Kansas City dropping 56 on them. The Raiders actually scored 31 points that game, which is normally enough to win in the NFL. Mack, who will have a great mentor in Woodley, will need to come along and play like a fifth overall pick. I don't think they'll overtake the Broncos for the division crown, at least not until Manning is gone, but I think they could push for runner up, possibly even a Wild Card if they can steal a couple games.
3. St. Louis Rams
Just like the Browns and Manziel, the big topic with the Rams will be with Michael Sam. Just like the Browns, however, there's a lot more to this team than just the player that has been shown by the media. To be clear, Sam is an interesting story, regardless of his sexual orientation. Every year on Hard Knocks they follow players scrapping for a roster spot and Sam is no exception. A SEC Defensive Player of the Year last year, Sam steps into a situation where the starters are already set at his position. Chris Long and Robert Quinn are two of the best defensive ends in the game and there's no way Sam is supplanting them between now and the start of the season. Sam will have to grind it out on special teams, like most late draft picks do, to make the team and possibly get in a couple defensive packages. The public would also be able to see how other players interact and respond with Sam during camp.
Offensively, this team has the potential to be explosive. The first step in that process is getting Sam Bradford back to full health. Even going back to his Oklahoma days, Bradford has struggled with injury and this past year as well as 2011 were no different. The good news is that when Bradford has been healthy, he's been a fairly good NFL QB. He won't be winning MVP anytime soon, but he's thrown for 3,500+ both times he played a full season and saw his touchdown to interception ratio improve from 18 to 15 his rookie year to 21 to 13 in 2012. No one will challenge him for the starting gig, but he needs to progress and establish chemistry with the young corps of WRs that they have if St. Louis is to make the playoffs out of a tough NFC West.
The WR and RB positions, however, will see some battles. At WR, Tavon Austin was electric when the ball was in his hands last year, but his chances were limited. He played in 13 games and finished with 40 receptions. By comparison, Julio Jones played in 5 games last year and finished with 41 receptions. If Austin is to be a true number one WR, he's going to need to be sharper running routes and be more reliable. Lots of times he wasn't even on the field in some formations. He has the chance to separate himself from the oft injured Kenny Britt, and fellow Rams from last year Chris Givens, Brian Quick, and Austin Pettis.
At RB, Zac Stacy finished the year with a bang, but the Rams needed a solid backup or challenger for the starting position. Enter Auburn's Tre Mason who was a key reason why the Tigers made it to the National Championship game. While Stacy had success when called upon, the sample size is very small and it never hurts to have depth at the RB position. Mason is a faster than he looks runner who should settle into the number two position behind Stacy. Should anything happen with Stacy, however, I think Mason will be a more than capable backup.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Was it a fluke or sign of things to come? That is the question that will be asked throughout this season about Chip Kelly's offense and Nick Foles' QB play. Kelly's offense looked and worked just like it did at Oregon. No huddle was the norm as the offense spread your defense out looking for matchups that favored the Eagles. LeSean McCoy finished with his best rushing yardage total of his career with 1,607 and Foles had an insane 29 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio in the 13 games he played. It didn't look like anyone could stop them. Turns out that they weren't the only one with a juggernaut offense as the Saints beat them in Philly in the playoffs with the Eagles being outgained and running less plays than the Saints. Now Kelly will have time to fine tune and tweak his system as Foles tries to continue his success from last year.
One glaring name that will be missing on that offense will be DeSean Jackson. Jackson, released by the Eagles reportedly because of off the field concerns, was Philly's number one WR for a few years now. He led the Eagles in receiving yards and TDs last year and was, and still is, a dangerous kick returner when called upon. Jackson denies the off the field issues, but now finds himself playing for division rival Washington and Robert Griffin III. The Eagles need to find a WR to step up to replace him. Riley Cooper had a nice season last year and Jeremy Maclin has played well despite missing all of last year with an injury. They also picked up Jordan Matthews in the draft, who I think has star potential. Despite their successes, none of them have the elite speed and deep threat down the field that Jackson brought to the table. If Matthews fails to progress and Maclin's injury flares up, this offense could be in serious trouble no matter what system they run.
Similar to Kelly's offense that relies on speed, his defensive system also relies on speed. Unlike the offense, they did not find immediate success last year. They finished 4th to last in yards allowed and middle of the pack in points allowed per game. I realize that because their offense moves so quickly that their defense will be out there more often than other teams'. That does not excuse the high yardage and point totals that they gave up to some teams last year. They grabbed safety Malcolm Jenkins from the Saints in the offseason and drafted defensive end Marcus Smith in the first round. With Tony Romo, RGIII, and Eli Manning in their division, they will need to be better defensively to win another division crown. If that offense struggles in Year 2, the defensive side will be even more critical to their success.
1. Denver Broncos
Veteran nearing end of career? Check. Big name free agent signings? Check. Questions at critical positions? Check. Super Bowl Champion or bust mentality? Check. The Broncos have it all for a show like Hard Knocks. Let's start with the obvious name of Peyton Manning. Obviously no one is coming for his job, but you have to wonder if this will be his last rodeo? He can still play given his past two years in Denver, but eventually father time catches up with everyone. Getting an inside look at his preparation and the teaching that he does with his WRs and offensive line would be pretty cool to see. It also might be the last training camp he goes through, especially if they win the Super Bowl this year.
If there's one position that has to concern Broncos' fans, it has to be RB. In fact, it was probably concerning to them last year as well. This year, their leading rusher Knowshon Moreno departed for the Miami Dolphins. While I don't see this as a significant loss (Moreno has injury problems and had routinely underachieved prior to last year), it still leaves a question at RB. The obvious choice for starter is Montee Ball, but there were those that thought he would take control of the starting job last year. Instead, he caught a case of the fumbleitis and finished with half of the rushing attempts that Moreno did. Ball will have to prove during camp that those days are behind him and that he can take on an every down role. Improving at pass protection will also be key as protecting Manning is priority number one for this offense.
Despite not making much noise in free agency on the offensive side (lost Eric Decker, gained Emmanuel Sanders), the Broncos bullied their way into the free agent market and took Aqib Talib from New England, TJ Ward from Cleveland, and DeMarcus Ware from Dallas. The Broncos clearly saw defense as a need to go from Super Bowl Runner-up to Super Bowl Champion, and rightly so. Similar to the Eagles, because of how quick and efficient Manning is at running that offense, consequently the defense will be on the field more than normal, as well as some garbage time points given up since the game was wrapped up. Still, they were 19th in overall defense last year and gave up point totals of 48 (Dallas), 39 (Indianapolis), 34 (New England), and of course, 43 in the Super Bowl (Seattle). While these big name free agents were good with their former teams, they will need to establish chemistry and learn the system in Denver. Hard Knocks would be able to show this progression and learning experience for what could be a top five, and possible Super Bowl winning, defense next year.
Matty O
While there are a couple intriguing names amongst those teams, most of them don't really have much going for them in terms of intriguing storylines and entertainment. With that in mind, I'd like to mention my Top 10 for teams that would be the best for Hard Knocks, regardless of the criteria that exempts teams. Some are from the pool of teams that can be forced to do it, but most are from teams that are exempt, but can still volunteer.
10. Dallas Cowboys
My team, and America's team, is always good for drama. They were on the show back in 2008, so they are exempt from being forced to do it. While that year was entertaining, this year has more intrigue and questions surrounding it. For starters, Tony Romo is coming back from back surgery and has to be seeing his window of opportunity closing in Dallas in win a Super Bowl. Dez Bryant has recently said that he deserves to be paid as one of the top receivers, if not the best receiver, in the game. While I agree with that statement, it will be interesting to see how contract talks go.
While the offensive side of the ball has its storylines, the defensive side is where it gets entertaining because there is so much uncertainty surrounding it. They lost DeMarcus Ware in free agency and Sean Lee once again got injured, this time in OTAs. They will need to find a replacement for both of them during OTAs and training camp. Rod Marinelli, the Cowboys' defensive line coach last year, has been promoted to defensive coordinator. I think this will help out this defense a lot considering the lack of raw talent on the defensive side of the ball. He's going to need to find diamonds in the rough and come up with creative schemes to try and hide some of the glaring weaknesses they have on defense.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are intriguing because of all the newness that they have this year. Lovie Smith is the new head coach, Josh McCown is a new quarterback, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are two pass catching giants they drafted, and Alterraun Verner is a talented corner coming from Tennessee to try and compensate for the loss of Darrelle Revis. It appears as though the Bucs are trying to replicate what McCown had in Chicago, and that is tall, physical pass catchers that can fight for the ball. In Chicago, McCown had 6'4" Brandon Marshall, 6'3" Alshon Jeffery, and 6'6" Martellus Bennett. In Tampa, McCown will now be throwing to 6'5" Vincent Jackson, 6'5" Evans, and 6'6" Seferian-Jenkins. This is great for replicating the Bears system, but McCown still might not be the starter.
Mike Glennon, the Bucs third round pick last year, had an up and down rookie season, but proved that he can at least do decent in the NFL. While he only finished with 2,608 yards passing, he did have a 19 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio. He only won four games, but pushed the Seahawks to overtime in Seattle before falling by a field goal. I think the battle for starter between Glennon and McCown will be closer than people think as Glennon currently is on the outside looking in.
The departure of Revis, one of the best corners in the game, cannot be overlooked. The Bucs realized that by signing Verner, although I don't think he's reached Revis' skill level yet but I think he can. Add in that Lovie is a defensive minded coach, and I think he can continue to improve this young defense. It probably won't happen this year, but if he can get players to buy into his system and improve as individuals, they should have better showings in the future against division quarterbacks Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton.
8. New York Jets
Similar to the Cowboys, the Jets have already been on Hard Knocks back in 2010. While they were fairly sure of who was going to start on offense back in 2010, things are a bit muddier this time around. Geno Smith, the incumbent, will be battling veteran Michael Vick for the starting job. The big debate going on is do you allow Smith to progress by playing him and having an okay record, or allow Vick to come in and try to produce his Atlanta magic and lead this team to the playoffs? Another issue is the position right behind the QB and the position the QB will be throwing to. The Jets picked up Chris Johnson in free agency who has gone from CJ2K in 2009 to CJBarelyK in 2013, prompting the Titans to part ways with him. A few years ago, it would be a no brainer that he's the starter, but Chris Ivory showed flashes last year and I wouldn't be surprised if there's some kind of split that develops there.
On the outside, the Jets picked up Eric Decker and...no one else. Well, they actually picked up Jacoby Ford and drafted Shaq Evans, but c'mon. Their receiving corps doesn't scare anyone. With Smith, or a less-mobile-than-he-used-to-be Vick starting, I think the Jets should have done more to emphasize getting weapons around both of these QBs. It will be interesting to see who will emerge and develop some kind of chemistry with either one of them.
7. Seattle Seahawks
I wouldn't say this team has a lot of questions at positions, but they would surely be entertaining (except Marshawn Lynch). The obvious ringleader for this show would be Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom. I think he, more than anyone in the league, would relish having cameras around 24/7. Then you have the rah rah coach Pete Carroll who shows his emotion more than a lot of other coaches in the NFL. The only real positional battle that would be intriguing is out at WR. They lost Golden Tate to the Lions, and the only new players at that position are three rookies they drafted this year. Their best WR is Percy Harvin, but he's been anything but a picture of health (has played in only 12 games the past two years in Minnesota and Seattle). I would also like to see what the Seahawks think they need to improve, even though they won a Super Bowl. Teams improve and change every year so if the Seahawks want to repeat, they cannot be satisfied and stand back without changing and improving in certain areas.
6. Cleveland Browns
Johnny Manziel. That is all.
Just kidding, there's actually more to this team than just him. Manziel would certainly be the focal point though as he tries to win the starting job against the starter from last year and Ohio native, Brian Hoyer. Hoyer only started three games last year, but the Browns won all three, although he was injured in the third and never played the rest of the year. The Browns were 3-2 when he went out, and they finished the year 4-12. The coaches will have to decide if they want the flash (Manziel) or the calm (Hoyer).
Then there's the whole Josh Gordon saga, that might clear up before Hard Knocks would even begin. Gordon failed a drug test again, putting him at risk for a year long suspension. This wouldn't be a big deal if he was a third stringer, but he proved to be the Browns' best WR last year, and one of the best ones in the league. Despite knowing the potential suspension, the Browns were stubborn to a fault and refused to draft a WR in a fairly deep class. Even if Gordon isn't suspended, they don't have someone behind him to draw coverage away. They picked up veterans Miles Austin, Earl Bennett, and Nate Burleson, but each come with their own questions (injury, lack of production). Someone is bound to emerge during training camp, I just couldn't tell you who.
One great thing that would come from the Browns on Hard Knocks is allowing people to realize that this defense is pretty good. A good defense isn't usually associated with a 4-12 team, but the Browns finished 9th in overall defense last year and 6th in passing defense thanks to cover corner Joe Haden. The Browns finally got a corner to play opposite Haden by drafting Justin Gilbert out of Oklahoma State in the first round. It looks like they're building their defense like Arizona has built theirs with solid cover corners and letting everything else fall into place. Safety is still an issue, but their front seven is decent. Unfortunately, the Browns declined Hard Knocks this past week so we won't be seeing them this year.
5. Houston Texans
These last five really could have been put in any order as they all have their fair share of intrigue. Talk about the Texans recently has circled around their number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. I think Hard Knocks could be great for Clowney considering one of the knocks against him coming out of college was his lack of work ethic. Here, he could show the hard work he puts in during the week away from game day. He now joins a defense looking to slow down Andrew Luck and claim the AFC South.
The offensive side is much more worrisome. Andre Johnson, arguably their best player and lifetime Houston Texan, is extremely unhappy with the way the Texans' front office is assembling this team. His view is that they are rebuilding and, at 32 without even a whiff of the Super Bowl, Johnson wants to be on a contender. In truth, there's very little he can do because of his contract, but you have to wonder how committed he will be to giving it his all in training camp and throughout the season. He's a great player and far from a "diva" WR, but it is hard to get 100% effort from an unhappy employee in any job.
The Texans, similar to the Browns, were also incredibly stubborn by not taking a QB during the draft until the end of the fourth round when they took Pittsburgh's Tom Savage. There were some experts that believed Savage can be a good QB in this league, and maybe he can. But when your current QBs are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates, I would think the urgency would be greater if you truly want to win now. Out of those four, it's anyone guess who will win the starting job. Fitzpatrick had his moments in Buffalo, Savage is a rookie, Keenum played eight games last year and lost all eight with a 9 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, and Yates has a career 3 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, but did win a playoff game in 2012 for the Texans.
4. Oakland Raiders
Unlike teams that built themselves during the draft, the Raiders decided to throw money around in free agency and improve their team that way. They brought in Antonio Smith from the Texans, Carlos Rogers from the 49ers, James Jones from the Pack, Justin Tuck from the Giants, LaMarr Woodley from the Steelers, Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars, and traded for Matt Schaub from the Texans. Wow, welcome to the team. Schuab was an interesting trade considering the dreadful year that he had for the Texans (10 TDs, 14 INTs, 2,310 yards). The Raiders are banking on the fact that he has been a 4,000+ yard passer three times in his career and that last year was just a fluke. The Raiders hedged their bet by taking Derek Carr in the second round. Believed by some to be a first round, even top 10 talent, Carr will battle with Schuab to determine the starting QB.
Jones-Drew enters an interesting situation because Darren McFadden is still in Oakland. They're almost complete opposites with McFadden wanting space to use his speed, and Jones-Drew being a little bowling ball with enough quickness to bounce it outside if need be. There's also the fact that McFadden has bones made of glass and has yet to play more than 13 games in six years, whereas Jones-Drew has played 15 or more games six times in his eight year career. Will they play them both in a thunder and lightning kind of role? Will they allow one to take over the starting job with the other getting little touches? Will we see some Wildcat? A lot of uncertainty, but a lot of excitement as well at that position.
The defense is where they need the most improvement, and I think they got it with their free agent signings and by taking Khalil Mack fifth overall in this year's draft. In a division with Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, and Phillip Rivers, the Raiders need to have players to slow them down. They went 1-5 in the division last year including giving up 34+ to the Broncos twice, and Kansas City dropping 56 on them. The Raiders actually scored 31 points that game, which is normally enough to win in the NFL. Mack, who will have a great mentor in Woodley, will need to come along and play like a fifth overall pick. I don't think they'll overtake the Broncos for the division crown, at least not until Manning is gone, but I think they could push for runner up, possibly even a Wild Card if they can steal a couple games.
3. St. Louis Rams
Just like the Browns and Manziel, the big topic with the Rams will be with Michael Sam. Just like the Browns, however, there's a lot more to this team than just the player that has been shown by the media. To be clear, Sam is an interesting story, regardless of his sexual orientation. Every year on Hard Knocks they follow players scrapping for a roster spot and Sam is no exception. A SEC Defensive Player of the Year last year, Sam steps into a situation where the starters are already set at his position. Chris Long and Robert Quinn are two of the best defensive ends in the game and there's no way Sam is supplanting them between now and the start of the season. Sam will have to grind it out on special teams, like most late draft picks do, to make the team and possibly get in a couple defensive packages. The public would also be able to see how other players interact and respond with Sam during camp.
Offensively, this team has the potential to be explosive. The first step in that process is getting Sam Bradford back to full health. Even going back to his Oklahoma days, Bradford has struggled with injury and this past year as well as 2011 were no different. The good news is that when Bradford has been healthy, he's been a fairly good NFL QB. He won't be winning MVP anytime soon, but he's thrown for 3,500+ both times he played a full season and saw his touchdown to interception ratio improve from 18 to 15 his rookie year to 21 to 13 in 2012. No one will challenge him for the starting gig, but he needs to progress and establish chemistry with the young corps of WRs that they have if St. Louis is to make the playoffs out of a tough NFC West.
The WR and RB positions, however, will see some battles. At WR, Tavon Austin was electric when the ball was in his hands last year, but his chances were limited. He played in 13 games and finished with 40 receptions. By comparison, Julio Jones played in 5 games last year and finished with 41 receptions. If Austin is to be a true number one WR, he's going to need to be sharper running routes and be more reliable. Lots of times he wasn't even on the field in some formations. He has the chance to separate himself from the oft injured Kenny Britt, and fellow Rams from last year Chris Givens, Brian Quick, and Austin Pettis.
At RB, Zac Stacy finished the year with a bang, but the Rams needed a solid backup or challenger for the starting position. Enter Auburn's Tre Mason who was a key reason why the Tigers made it to the National Championship game. While Stacy had success when called upon, the sample size is very small and it never hurts to have depth at the RB position. Mason is a faster than he looks runner who should settle into the number two position behind Stacy. Should anything happen with Stacy, however, I think Mason will be a more than capable backup.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Was it a fluke or sign of things to come? That is the question that will be asked throughout this season about Chip Kelly's offense and Nick Foles' QB play. Kelly's offense looked and worked just like it did at Oregon. No huddle was the norm as the offense spread your defense out looking for matchups that favored the Eagles. LeSean McCoy finished with his best rushing yardage total of his career with 1,607 and Foles had an insane 29 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio in the 13 games he played. It didn't look like anyone could stop them. Turns out that they weren't the only one with a juggernaut offense as the Saints beat them in Philly in the playoffs with the Eagles being outgained and running less plays than the Saints. Now Kelly will have time to fine tune and tweak his system as Foles tries to continue his success from last year.
One glaring name that will be missing on that offense will be DeSean Jackson. Jackson, released by the Eagles reportedly because of off the field concerns, was Philly's number one WR for a few years now. He led the Eagles in receiving yards and TDs last year and was, and still is, a dangerous kick returner when called upon. Jackson denies the off the field issues, but now finds himself playing for division rival Washington and Robert Griffin III. The Eagles need to find a WR to step up to replace him. Riley Cooper had a nice season last year and Jeremy Maclin has played well despite missing all of last year with an injury. They also picked up Jordan Matthews in the draft, who I think has star potential. Despite their successes, none of them have the elite speed and deep threat down the field that Jackson brought to the table. If Matthews fails to progress and Maclin's injury flares up, this offense could be in serious trouble no matter what system they run.
Similar to Kelly's offense that relies on speed, his defensive system also relies on speed. Unlike the offense, they did not find immediate success last year. They finished 4th to last in yards allowed and middle of the pack in points allowed per game. I realize that because their offense moves so quickly that their defense will be out there more often than other teams'. That does not excuse the high yardage and point totals that they gave up to some teams last year. They grabbed safety Malcolm Jenkins from the Saints in the offseason and drafted defensive end Marcus Smith in the first round. With Tony Romo, RGIII, and Eli Manning in their division, they will need to be better defensively to win another division crown. If that offense struggles in Year 2, the defensive side will be even more critical to their success.
1. Denver Broncos
Veteran nearing end of career? Check. Big name free agent signings? Check. Questions at critical positions? Check. Super Bowl Champion or bust mentality? Check. The Broncos have it all for a show like Hard Knocks. Let's start with the obvious name of Peyton Manning. Obviously no one is coming for his job, but you have to wonder if this will be his last rodeo? He can still play given his past two years in Denver, but eventually father time catches up with everyone. Getting an inside look at his preparation and the teaching that he does with his WRs and offensive line would be pretty cool to see. It also might be the last training camp he goes through, especially if they win the Super Bowl this year.
If there's one position that has to concern Broncos' fans, it has to be RB. In fact, it was probably concerning to them last year as well. This year, their leading rusher Knowshon Moreno departed for the Miami Dolphins. While I don't see this as a significant loss (Moreno has injury problems and had routinely underachieved prior to last year), it still leaves a question at RB. The obvious choice for starter is Montee Ball, but there were those that thought he would take control of the starting job last year. Instead, he caught a case of the fumbleitis and finished with half of the rushing attempts that Moreno did. Ball will have to prove during camp that those days are behind him and that he can take on an every down role. Improving at pass protection will also be key as protecting Manning is priority number one for this offense.
Despite not making much noise in free agency on the offensive side (lost Eric Decker, gained Emmanuel Sanders), the Broncos bullied their way into the free agent market and took Aqib Talib from New England, TJ Ward from Cleveland, and DeMarcus Ware from Dallas. The Broncos clearly saw defense as a need to go from Super Bowl Runner-up to Super Bowl Champion, and rightly so. Similar to the Eagles, because of how quick and efficient Manning is at running that offense, consequently the defense will be on the field more than normal, as well as some garbage time points given up since the game was wrapped up. Still, they were 19th in overall defense last year and gave up point totals of 48 (Dallas), 39 (Indianapolis), 34 (New England), and of course, 43 in the Super Bowl (Seattle). While these big name free agents were good with their former teams, they will need to establish chemistry and learn the system in Denver. Hard Knocks would be able to show this progression and learning experience for what could be a top five, and possible Super Bowl winning, defense next year.
Matty O
Sunday, June 8, 2014
Six Sunday Summaries (6/8/2014)
Heat Taking Heat For The Heat
A broken air conditioner, in a crowded arena, during the summer in Texas is the recipe for an unpleasant experience. That's what the Spurs and Heat found themselves in during Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Had it not been for a LeBron James cramp in the fourth quarter, this story probably would have been glossed over and chalked up to it being hot in San Antonio this time of year. Unfortunately for the Heat, the cramp monster came and bit LeBron during the critical stretch run when the Heat still had the lead. Without him on the court, Danny Green exploded down the stretch to make the final 110-95 score look a lot worse than how the game actually was played.
Anything that happens to LeBron nowadays, people are going to get all over him for. Some people went so far as to call him soft or say that he wasn't mentally tough enough to just battle through it. As someone who hasn't liked LeBron since he went to Miami, I have to say that is unfair. LeBron did try and get back in the game, scored on a pretty nice drive and layup, then couldn't even walk to the bench. Anyone who has ever had a cramp knows that they can be next to impossible to handle. If you didn't prepare for it with hydration, salt, etc., then it will be very difficult to overcome that, much less play a NBA Finals basketball game. Some people want to sound tough and say, "Oh, I could have played through that." In truth, no you could not have. You might be less prone to cramps or had prepared better than LeBron in that situation, but once you get those nasty cramps, you'd have been sitting on the bench too.
Where The Series Stands Now
Cramp or no cramp, the Spurs won the game. While I do think the heat had an impact on the game (Heat lose their best player down the stretch), I don't think it was the reason the Spurs won. The Heat were only up by two when LeBron played his last seconds in the game, so it's not like the Spurs were done for. The Spurs let Miami back in the game by being sloppy with the ball early, but their ball movement in the final minutes was vintage Spurs. Ball screen, pass to Duncan in the post, quick pass right back out to Tony Parker for an open 3. Just because LeBron was out, doesn't mean that a two point lead should turn into a 15 point deficit.
The good news for Heat fans is that the A/C is fixed, and nothing about Game 1 should have changed anyone's predictions. Whether you picked the Spurs in six or the Heat in six, you should still feel pretty good about your prediction. It was a close game with a score that was not reflective of the game itself. One thing that does have to worry Heat fans is Tim Duncan. The building might be cooler for Game 2, but Duncan isn't getting any shorter. He was a man amongst boys down low as he shot 9 for 10 from the field for 21 points to lead all Spurs scorers. The Heat don't have the personnel to guard him one on one, so more double teams will be in order, as well as doing a better job of denying him the ball down low in the first place. It's certainly a risk as the Spurs have Parker, Green, and Manu Ginobili running around on the perimeter, but I've always thought that you lose games getting beat from the outside, but you lose series getting beat down low.
They Never Lead, But They Always Win
See: 2014 Los Angeles Kings. For the second game in a row, the New York Rangers took a two goal lead in the first period, and for the second game in a row, they lost in overtime. The Kings have been doing this the entire post season as they kind of hang around for the first two periods, then finish the deal late. It's actually quite surprising that the Kings have had to rally in the first two games, despite out shooting the Rangers 87-65. Now they have home ice advantage, something they haven't had this entire postseason, and a 2-0 lead heading to New York. Is there any hope for the Rangers?
The answer is a hesitant and uneasy, yes. The outlook doesn't look good, but anytime you have Henrik Lundqvist back in net, you got a shot. Similar to an ace pitcher in baseball, if he plays at his best, you can turn a 2-0 series into an interesting one real fast. Speaking of fast, one thing that has really bothered the Kings in this series is the Rangers' speed. You saw some of that last series against the Hawks, but even more so with this Rangers' squad. There have been multiple times where the Rangers will win a face off in their own zone, flip the puck up in the air up ahead, and one of their speedsters will skate onto it and get a shot on goal. The Kings have gotten beat on a couple of occasions, so maybe they need to put at least one defenseman even further back, similar to a corner backing off a speedy wide receiver.
More good news for the Rangers is that they have come back from worse deficits this postseason. The Penguins were up 3-1 on them in the Conference Semifinals heading back to Pittsburgh. The Rangers had to take two in Pittsburgh and hold serve at home. Lundqvist dropped the hammer, allowing only three goals in the final three games as the Rangers advanced. If the Rangers are to win the Cup, Lundqvist will have to do the same in this series. He's made some great saves already, but the offensive waves just keep coming and coming for the Kings. Although the Rangers have been in both games this series, I think a high scoring shootout favors the Kings. Not pressing on offense, and playing sharper on defense is the formula for getting back in the series. The Rangers want to see scores like 2-1 or 1-0, rather than the scoring bonanza that has taken place the first two games.
Stay In School
Every year when there are coaching vacancies at the NBA and NFL levels, everyone looks to the college game and tries to make the case how this coach could fit in there. This off season, the head coaching job for the Los Angeles Lakers, arguably one of the most prestigious jobs in sports, opened up. Immediately, National Championship winning head coach Kevin Ollie (UConn), former Championship winner John Calipari (Kentucky), and Hall of Famer Mike Kryzewski (Duke) were all mentioned as possible candidates. Ollie actually grew up in LA, and was coming off a sensational coaching job by taking a UConn team that wasn't the most talented, to a National Championship. He was also a mentor and friend to Kevin Durant, so there was some appeal with Ollie perhaps being able to draw Durant to LA once his contract was up.
Calipari has already coached in the NBA and struggled to find success. In three years with the 76ers, he finished with a .391 winning percentage and only made the playoffs once (swept by the '98 Bulls). His success at the college level, however, has been spectacular. At Memphis, the Tigers were always near the top of the rankings, and were frequent tournament participants. Had it not been for their inability to make free throws, he might have won his first National Championship in 2008, with Derrick Rose leading the way. That first title didn't come until 2012 when he led a mostly freshmen Kentucky team to the title, while only losing two games the entire year.
Coack K always gets mentioned for any NBA coaching job, and rightfully so. He's already in the Hall of Fame, has four National Championships, and is a three time Naismith College Coach of the Year. While he hasn't had a head coaching job in the NBA, he has led NBA superstars to gold medals in 2012 and 2008. Any coach that can get Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Kobe Bryant to play as a cohesive unit is doing a pretty good job. As it stands, Ollie signed a new contract in May, Coach Cal signed a new contract this past week, and Coach K won't leave Duke, probably ever.
I think this is great for all parties involved that none of them jumped ship. Very rarely, in any sport, does a successful college coach go on to be a successful pro coach. Exceptions include Jack Ramsay, Jimmie Johnson, and Pete Carroll (took him a couple tries though) to name a few. Coach K is the only one of the three I could see being successful given how well he managed players and egos at the last two Olympics. Still, all of them have great programs going and are great for basketball in general in terms of preparing them for the NBA. Ollie hasn't had time yet, but Coach Cal has recently sent a flood of talent that has done well in the pros. The amount of Dukies that played under Coach K in the NBA is numerous. With them staying at their colleges, it allows young players to develop better, and also leaves the head coaching positions open to better fits, rather than just taking the best college coach at the time.
What Position Do You Play?
It's hard to argue that the best tight end in the NFL is the Saints' Jimmy Graham. Graham, however, would argue that he isn't even a tight end. Well, at least when it comes to getting paid. Graham is arguing that, since the Saints used the franchise tag on him, that he should get the money a wide receiver gets when franchised tagged ($12.3 million) rather than what tight ends get ($7.035 million). His argument is that he lined up either in the slot or out wide 67% of the snaps he played last year. Anyone who has watched the Saints play know that Graham plays very much like a wide receiver. While he did play the majority of his snaps like a WR, he did play 33% of his snaps as a tight end. Also, he is not listed on any roster as a WR. If you were to ask someone who the best wide receiver in the game is, I'm not sure if Graham's name comes up. Not because he's not a good receiver, but because no one thinks of him that way. Ask the same question about the best tight end, and he'll be one of the first two (other one probably being Gronk).
I agree with Graham on this matter that he should get paid like a WR, but I think the NFL's parameters for this should change. Where someone lines up in a formation shouldn't dictate the money they get paid and/or deserve. If Graham lines up at TE every play, runs routes from that position rather than out wide, and still gets the same stats, should he still get WR pay? I would say yes, because it should be based on performance rather than where they lined up. One example I can think of where basing franchise tag payouts on where someone lines up is flawed goes back to the Wildcat Miami Dolphins.
Normally reserved for the college game, the Wildcat formation exploded onto the scene in 2008 when the Dolphins lined up Ronnie Brown at quarterback and had Ricky Williams either standing beside him or coming in motion, with the option to keep it, hand it to Williams, or pass it. While they used it sparingly, let's say for argument's sake that it became the base set of their offense and had good success. Now, let's say Brown runs the ball 80% of the time, hands it off 15% of the time, and throws it 5% of the time from that formation. Should he get tagged as a quarterback? Of course not, but given the position where he lined up from, then the current system would argue that he should. So while I don't agree with how it is set up currently, I think that Graham has a case to take advantage of a broken rule. If the decision on Graham's tag doesn't change any policy, look for more players to do this. I think of a Darren Sproles type back or a defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid as players that could make a case to be tagged as a different position. His grievance hearing is scheduled for June 17-18.
World Cup Update
Big news on the World Cup front this week as Marco Reus of Germany and Franck Ribery of France were both declared out for their respective squads, less than a week away from the starting tournament. I think Germany has the means and strength in midfield to overcome Reus' injury. The loss of a Bastian Schweinsteiger would have been much more harmful. Ribery's injury, however, may not be so easy to recover from. Throughout his career, at the club and international level, he has been a great distributor of the ball, and France doesn't really have anyone to replace what they will lose with him. As it stands, nothing regarding Germany changes. They still win their group, and make it to the semis against Brazil where they fall. France, however, is in a bit more trouble. I now see the Swiss winning the group, and Ecuador possibly sneaking in the backdoor to advance. That's how much Ribery means to this team. If France falls in the group stage in back to back World Cups, expect a very uneasy next four years for everyone involved with the French National Team.
Matty O
A broken air conditioner, in a crowded arena, during the summer in Texas is the recipe for an unpleasant experience. That's what the Spurs and Heat found themselves in during Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Had it not been for a LeBron James cramp in the fourth quarter, this story probably would have been glossed over and chalked up to it being hot in San Antonio this time of year. Unfortunately for the Heat, the cramp monster came and bit LeBron during the critical stretch run when the Heat still had the lead. Without him on the court, Danny Green exploded down the stretch to make the final 110-95 score look a lot worse than how the game actually was played.
Anything that happens to LeBron nowadays, people are going to get all over him for. Some people went so far as to call him soft or say that he wasn't mentally tough enough to just battle through it. As someone who hasn't liked LeBron since he went to Miami, I have to say that is unfair. LeBron did try and get back in the game, scored on a pretty nice drive and layup, then couldn't even walk to the bench. Anyone who has ever had a cramp knows that they can be next to impossible to handle. If you didn't prepare for it with hydration, salt, etc., then it will be very difficult to overcome that, much less play a NBA Finals basketball game. Some people want to sound tough and say, "Oh, I could have played through that." In truth, no you could not have. You might be less prone to cramps or had prepared better than LeBron in that situation, but once you get those nasty cramps, you'd have been sitting on the bench too.
Where The Series Stands Now
Cramp or no cramp, the Spurs won the game. While I do think the heat had an impact on the game (Heat lose their best player down the stretch), I don't think it was the reason the Spurs won. The Heat were only up by two when LeBron played his last seconds in the game, so it's not like the Spurs were done for. The Spurs let Miami back in the game by being sloppy with the ball early, but their ball movement in the final minutes was vintage Spurs. Ball screen, pass to Duncan in the post, quick pass right back out to Tony Parker for an open 3. Just because LeBron was out, doesn't mean that a two point lead should turn into a 15 point deficit.
The good news for Heat fans is that the A/C is fixed, and nothing about Game 1 should have changed anyone's predictions. Whether you picked the Spurs in six or the Heat in six, you should still feel pretty good about your prediction. It was a close game with a score that was not reflective of the game itself. One thing that does have to worry Heat fans is Tim Duncan. The building might be cooler for Game 2, but Duncan isn't getting any shorter. He was a man amongst boys down low as he shot 9 for 10 from the field for 21 points to lead all Spurs scorers. The Heat don't have the personnel to guard him one on one, so more double teams will be in order, as well as doing a better job of denying him the ball down low in the first place. It's certainly a risk as the Spurs have Parker, Green, and Manu Ginobili running around on the perimeter, but I've always thought that you lose games getting beat from the outside, but you lose series getting beat down low.
They Never Lead, But They Always Win
See: 2014 Los Angeles Kings. For the second game in a row, the New York Rangers took a two goal lead in the first period, and for the second game in a row, they lost in overtime. The Kings have been doing this the entire post season as they kind of hang around for the first two periods, then finish the deal late. It's actually quite surprising that the Kings have had to rally in the first two games, despite out shooting the Rangers 87-65. Now they have home ice advantage, something they haven't had this entire postseason, and a 2-0 lead heading to New York. Is there any hope for the Rangers?
The answer is a hesitant and uneasy, yes. The outlook doesn't look good, but anytime you have Henrik Lundqvist back in net, you got a shot. Similar to an ace pitcher in baseball, if he plays at his best, you can turn a 2-0 series into an interesting one real fast. Speaking of fast, one thing that has really bothered the Kings in this series is the Rangers' speed. You saw some of that last series against the Hawks, but even more so with this Rangers' squad. There have been multiple times where the Rangers will win a face off in their own zone, flip the puck up in the air up ahead, and one of their speedsters will skate onto it and get a shot on goal. The Kings have gotten beat on a couple of occasions, so maybe they need to put at least one defenseman even further back, similar to a corner backing off a speedy wide receiver.
More good news for the Rangers is that they have come back from worse deficits this postseason. The Penguins were up 3-1 on them in the Conference Semifinals heading back to Pittsburgh. The Rangers had to take two in Pittsburgh and hold serve at home. Lundqvist dropped the hammer, allowing only three goals in the final three games as the Rangers advanced. If the Rangers are to win the Cup, Lundqvist will have to do the same in this series. He's made some great saves already, but the offensive waves just keep coming and coming for the Kings. Although the Rangers have been in both games this series, I think a high scoring shootout favors the Kings. Not pressing on offense, and playing sharper on defense is the formula for getting back in the series. The Rangers want to see scores like 2-1 or 1-0, rather than the scoring bonanza that has taken place the first two games.
Stay In School
Every year when there are coaching vacancies at the NBA and NFL levels, everyone looks to the college game and tries to make the case how this coach could fit in there. This off season, the head coaching job for the Los Angeles Lakers, arguably one of the most prestigious jobs in sports, opened up. Immediately, National Championship winning head coach Kevin Ollie (UConn), former Championship winner John Calipari (Kentucky), and Hall of Famer Mike Kryzewski (Duke) were all mentioned as possible candidates. Ollie actually grew up in LA, and was coming off a sensational coaching job by taking a UConn team that wasn't the most talented, to a National Championship. He was also a mentor and friend to Kevin Durant, so there was some appeal with Ollie perhaps being able to draw Durant to LA once his contract was up.
Calipari has already coached in the NBA and struggled to find success. In three years with the 76ers, he finished with a .391 winning percentage and only made the playoffs once (swept by the '98 Bulls). His success at the college level, however, has been spectacular. At Memphis, the Tigers were always near the top of the rankings, and were frequent tournament participants. Had it not been for their inability to make free throws, he might have won his first National Championship in 2008, with Derrick Rose leading the way. That first title didn't come until 2012 when he led a mostly freshmen Kentucky team to the title, while only losing two games the entire year.
Coack K always gets mentioned for any NBA coaching job, and rightfully so. He's already in the Hall of Fame, has four National Championships, and is a three time Naismith College Coach of the Year. While he hasn't had a head coaching job in the NBA, he has led NBA superstars to gold medals in 2012 and 2008. Any coach that can get Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Kobe Bryant to play as a cohesive unit is doing a pretty good job. As it stands, Ollie signed a new contract in May, Coach Cal signed a new contract this past week, and Coach K won't leave Duke, probably ever.
I think this is great for all parties involved that none of them jumped ship. Very rarely, in any sport, does a successful college coach go on to be a successful pro coach. Exceptions include Jack Ramsay, Jimmie Johnson, and Pete Carroll (took him a couple tries though) to name a few. Coach K is the only one of the three I could see being successful given how well he managed players and egos at the last two Olympics. Still, all of them have great programs going and are great for basketball in general in terms of preparing them for the NBA. Ollie hasn't had time yet, but Coach Cal has recently sent a flood of talent that has done well in the pros. The amount of Dukies that played under Coach K in the NBA is numerous. With them staying at their colleges, it allows young players to develop better, and also leaves the head coaching positions open to better fits, rather than just taking the best college coach at the time.
What Position Do You Play?
It's hard to argue that the best tight end in the NFL is the Saints' Jimmy Graham. Graham, however, would argue that he isn't even a tight end. Well, at least when it comes to getting paid. Graham is arguing that, since the Saints used the franchise tag on him, that he should get the money a wide receiver gets when franchised tagged ($12.3 million) rather than what tight ends get ($7.035 million). His argument is that he lined up either in the slot or out wide 67% of the snaps he played last year. Anyone who has watched the Saints play know that Graham plays very much like a wide receiver. While he did play the majority of his snaps like a WR, he did play 33% of his snaps as a tight end. Also, he is not listed on any roster as a WR. If you were to ask someone who the best wide receiver in the game is, I'm not sure if Graham's name comes up. Not because he's not a good receiver, but because no one thinks of him that way. Ask the same question about the best tight end, and he'll be one of the first two (other one probably being Gronk).
I agree with Graham on this matter that he should get paid like a WR, but I think the NFL's parameters for this should change. Where someone lines up in a formation shouldn't dictate the money they get paid and/or deserve. If Graham lines up at TE every play, runs routes from that position rather than out wide, and still gets the same stats, should he still get WR pay? I would say yes, because it should be based on performance rather than where they lined up. One example I can think of where basing franchise tag payouts on where someone lines up is flawed goes back to the Wildcat Miami Dolphins.
Normally reserved for the college game, the Wildcat formation exploded onto the scene in 2008 when the Dolphins lined up Ronnie Brown at quarterback and had Ricky Williams either standing beside him or coming in motion, with the option to keep it, hand it to Williams, or pass it. While they used it sparingly, let's say for argument's sake that it became the base set of their offense and had good success. Now, let's say Brown runs the ball 80% of the time, hands it off 15% of the time, and throws it 5% of the time from that formation. Should he get tagged as a quarterback? Of course not, but given the position where he lined up from, then the current system would argue that he should. So while I don't agree with how it is set up currently, I think that Graham has a case to take advantage of a broken rule. If the decision on Graham's tag doesn't change any policy, look for more players to do this. I think of a Darren Sproles type back or a defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid as players that could make a case to be tagged as a different position. His grievance hearing is scheduled for June 17-18.
World Cup Update
Big news on the World Cup front this week as Marco Reus of Germany and Franck Ribery of France were both declared out for their respective squads, less than a week away from the starting tournament. I think Germany has the means and strength in midfield to overcome Reus' injury. The loss of a Bastian Schweinsteiger would have been much more harmful. Ribery's injury, however, may not be so easy to recover from. Throughout his career, at the club and international level, he has been a great distributor of the ball, and France doesn't really have anyone to replace what they will lose with him. As it stands, nothing regarding Germany changes. They still win their group, and make it to the semis against Brazil where they fall. France, however, is in a bit more trouble. I now see the Swiss winning the group, and Ecuador possibly sneaking in the backdoor to advance. That's how much Ribery means to this team. If France falls in the group stage in back to back World Cups, expect a very uneasy next four years for everyone involved with the French National Team.
Matty O
Thursday, June 5, 2014
World Cup Preview
Group A: Brazil, Cameroon, Croatia, Mexico
Winner: Brazil
Runner Up: Croatia
Group A, the one that kicks off the Cup with host Brazil facing Croatia on June 12th, has a fairly clear cut winner. At home, with a loaded roster, Brazil seems to have a stranglehold here. Second place is a bit dicier with Mexico and Croatia both worthy of consideration. I'll take Croatia as Mexico struggled to even qualify for the World Cup, and just suffered a head scratching friendly loss to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Croatia, meanwhile, has the strong 1-2 punch of Luka Modric and Mario Mandzukic from Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, respectively. It might come down to tiebreakers, but I think Croatia escapes the group along with the host.
Critical Games
Brazil vs. Croatia, June 12th
Opening game of the Cup
Mexico vs. Croatia, June 23rd
Game will most likely decide who advances along with Brazil
Group B: Australia, Chile, Netherlands, Spain
Winner: Spain
Runner Up: Netherlands
This group could get interesting with Chile playing spoiler to the more well known Spanish and Dutch teams. Chile is actually ranked higher than the Dutch in the official FIFA rankings, but it's hard to deny the firepower and history the Dutch possess. The battle for first will be crucial, however, as the runner up will have to face the winner of Group A, most likely Brazil. Avoiding the host and being on the other side of the bracket should be motivation enough for the teams in this group. I give Spain the nod given their recent successes (2010 World Cup Champions, back to back European Champions in 2008 and 2012, runner up in 2013 Confederations Cup), as well as their always loaded midfield. The Dutch and Spain sweep Chile and Australia, but Spain edges the Dutch 1-0 on June 13th in a rematch of the 2010 World Cup Final.
Critical Games
Netherlands vs. Spain, June 13th
Not only does this feature two powerhouses in the sport, but it could determine who wins the group and avoids Brazil
Chile vs. Netherlands, June 23rd
I don't think Chile can catch Spain, but they could steal one against the Dutch and slide themselves into the runner up spot
Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
Winner: Colombia
Runner Up: Greece
The biggest storyline out of this group so far is talented Colombian striker Falcao being held out of the Cup due to his injury from January not healing fully yet. They should still win the group, but if they have an off game, they might finish runner up. The tempting team to put in the runner up position would be the Ivory Coast, but I'm going to go with Greece. There's always a couple teams in each World Cup that are a bit of a surprise to escape the group stages and I think Greece could be one of this year's. They play a heavily defensive style of play, and take counter attacks if the opportunity presents itself. It's not a particularly entertaining style to watch, but it's a style that could help them steal a game against the Ivory Coast, and maybe even Colombia, to advance.
Critical Game
Greece vs. Ivory Coast, June 24th
Important game to battle it out for second place in the group
Group D: England, Costa Rica, Italy, Uruguay
Winner: Uruguay
Runner Up: Italy
Just like in Group C, the big story here revolves around injury. Star Liverpool striker Luis Suarez continues to try and come back from a leg injury he suffered in training after a spectacular season in England for Liverpool. Similar to Colombia, this won't be a make or break injury, but one that could keep them from winning the group and having to settle for second. England will give Italy and Uruguay a run for their money, and won't be an easy out by any means. The name power (Wayne Rooney) and veteran leadership (Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard) are there, but I don't think they have the guns to match Uruguay and Italy. Italy, seeking its fifth World Cup, have to be more than a little bit motivated after winning a grand total of zero games and not getting out of their group in the 2010 Cup. Gianluigi Buffon returns in net after leading Juventus to a ridiculous 33-3-2 record in Serie A this past season. Pirlo in midfield and the always dangerous, but emotional, Mario Balotelli, should be enough for Italy to advance and possibly even win, pending Suarez's health.
Critical Games
England vs. Italy, June 14th, England vs. Uruguay, June 19th, Italy vs. Uruguay, June 24th
All three teams are ranked in the top 13 in the FIFA rankings, and all three have star power up and down their lineups. England could still make some noise in this group
Group E: Ecuador, France, Honduras, Switzerland
Winner: France
Runner Up: Switzerland
Similar to Italy, France is seeking redemption for a disastrous 2010 World Cup which included a team protest against their own coach, zero wins, and an early exit. This year, just like prior to 2010, the hopes are high that France will contend not just for a spot in the knockout stage, but for the Cup itself. The group they are placed in certainly helps as they should win this one with the Swiss nipping at their heels. The Swiss had an impressive qualifying run which included seven shut outs in their ten games. They should slide in comfortably into second place.
Critical Games
France vs. Honduras, June 15th
The meltdown in 2010 in South Africa started early, so it will interesting to see how France perform and how their team reacts to the first game of this tournament.
France vs. Switzerland, June 20th
If France get off to a rocky start on June 15th, expect the Swiss to win this match as well as the group. The battle for first will be on the line here
Group F: Argentina, Nigeria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran
Winner: Argentina
Runner Up: Bosnia-Herzegovina
Argentina may have gotten the easiest draw of all the powerhouse nations, including Brazil. They are the clear cut number one and would not come as a shock if they won all three of their group matches. Second place should go to Bosnia-Herzegovina as they rolled through qualifying, posting 30 goals in 10 games. They also have striker Edin Dzeko from Manchester City, who helped City win the Premier League title. They could give Argentina a scare when they face off, but Argentina should pull away.
Critical Game
Argentina vs B-H, June 15th
We should know the fate of this group only four days into the tournament
Group G: Germany, Portugal, United States, Ghana
Winner: Germany
Runner Up: Portugal
Even though Group G is labeled the group of death, I think the top two teams are pretty clear cut. There is some concern over Christiano Ronaldo's injury and whether or not he will be healthy enough to play in the Cup. They still make it out of the group without him, but go farther in the knockout stages with him. Even with Ronaldo at full health, I think Germany wins this group rather easily. Optimistic U.S. fans will point to the fact that they beat Germany in a friendly back in June, and it was Germany that needed to rally only to come up short with the US winning 4-3. Let's be real though, that was Germany's B-squad. Yes, players like Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski played in that game, but star goalie Manuel Neuer, Germany and Bayern Munich stalwart Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Arsenal midfielder Mesut Ozil didn't play that match. Portugal snags second, but it is Germany that will come out of this group with World Cup Title expectations rather than World Cup Title hopes.
Critical Games
Germany vs. Portugal, June 16th
A game good enough for a quarter or even semi final gets played in the group stage. If Ronaldo is fit enough to play, expect an exciting one
United States vs. Ghana, June 16th
Ghana has been a thorn in the United States' side the past two World Cups. The US lost to Ghana in their final group match in 2006 that could have sent them on to the knockout stage. Then, in 2010, the US won their group, only to lose a 2-1 heart breaker in extra time in the knockout stage. If Ghana beats the US again, any hopes of advancing could go out the window early.
United States vs. Portugal, June 22nd
Assuming they beat Ghana, if the US are to advance they will need to beat Portugal, without a healthy Ronaldo, to get to the knockout stage. I expect Germany to beat both of them, so this game will be critical to put themselves in a position to come in second.
Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
Winner: Belgium
Runner Up: Russia
Belgium is the popular dark horse pick this year, but I'm not so sure the dark horse label is appropriate. It most likely has to do with their World Cup history having never won one, and only making it past the round of 16 once in 1986 (4th place). When you look at their roster, you see the makings of a favorite, not a dark horse. They have stars on every level with goalie Thibaut Courtois who just led Atletico Madrid to a Champions League Final, defender and captain Vincent Kompany, midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Mousa Dembele, and the youngster from Manchester United, Adnan Januzaj, feeding it to arguably Chelsea's best player this year, Eden Hazard. Dark horses are supposed to surprise, but it will come as no shock to me if Belgium go far, even making the finals. Russia's team is not that strong, but Algeria and South Korea should not be a threat. The luck of the draw has Russia advancing, but a knockout stage date with either Germany or Portugal sends them packing promptly afterwards.
Star Players Whose Nations Didn't Make World Cup
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden, PSG), Robert Lewandowski (Poland, Borussia Dortmund), Gareth Bale (Wales, Real Madrid), Martin Skrtel (Slovakia, Liverpool), Branislav Ivanovic (Serbia, Chelsea), Petr Cech (Czech Republic, Chelsea)
Winner: Brazil
The host nation pulls this one out as the raucous crowds and firepower up front carry them. Their road is by no means easy, as they will have to face Spain or the Dutch in the first round of the knockout stage. Add in games against Italy, Germany, and then the final and you have a daunting road ahead. Looking up and down their lineup, however, and it's hard to find a weakness. I think their 3-0 drubbing of Spain in last year's Confederations Cup was not a fluke, but more so a sign of things to come for this Cup and beyond.
Matty O
Winner: Brazil
Runner Up: Croatia
Group A, the one that kicks off the Cup with host Brazil facing Croatia on June 12th, has a fairly clear cut winner. At home, with a loaded roster, Brazil seems to have a stranglehold here. Second place is a bit dicier with Mexico and Croatia both worthy of consideration. I'll take Croatia as Mexico struggled to even qualify for the World Cup, and just suffered a head scratching friendly loss to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Croatia, meanwhile, has the strong 1-2 punch of Luka Modric and Mario Mandzukic from Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, respectively. It might come down to tiebreakers, but I think Croatia escapes the group along with the host.
Critical Games
Brazil vs. Croatia, June 12th
Opening game of the Cup
Mexico vs. Croatia, June 23rd
Game will most likely decide who advances along with Brazil
Group B: Australia, Chile, Netherlands, Spain
Winner: Spain
Runner Up: Netherlands
This group could get interesting with Chile playing spoiler to the more well known Spanish and Dutch teams. Chile is actually ranked higher than the Dutch in the official FIFA rankings, but it's hard to deny the firepower and history the Dutch possess. The battle for first will be crucial, however, as the runner up will have to face the winner of Group A, most likely Brazil. Avoiding the host and being on the other side of the bracket should be motivation enough for the teams in this group. I give Spain the nod given their recent successes (2010 World Cup Champions, back to back European Champions in 2008 and 2012, runner up in 2013 Confederations Cup), as well as their always loaded midfield. The Dutch and Spain sweep Chile and Australia, but Spain edges the Dutch 1-0 on June 13th in a rematch of the 2010 World Cup Final.
Critical Games
Netherlands vs. Spain, June 13th
Not only does this feature two powerhouses in the sport, but it could determine who wins the group and avoids Brazil
Chile vs. Netherlands, June 23rd
I don't think Chile can catch Spain, but they could steal one against the Dutch and slide themselves into the runner up spot
Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
Winner: Colombia
Runner Up: Greece
The biggest storyline out of this group so far is talented Colombian striker Falcao being held out of the Cup due to his injury from January not healing fully yet. They should still win the group, but if they have an off game, they might finish runner up. The tempting team to put in the runner up position would be the Ivory Coast, but I'm going to go with Greece. There's always a couple teams in each World Cup that are a bit of a surprise to escape the group stages and I think Greece could be one of this year's. They play a heavily defensive style of play, and take counter attacks if the opportunity presents itself. It's not a particularly entertaining style to watch, but it's a style that could help them steal a game against the Ivory Coast, and maybe even Colombia, to advance.
Critical Game
Greece vs. Ivory Coast, June 24th
Important game to battle it out for second place in the group
Group D: England, Costa Rica, Italy, Uruguay
Winner: Uruguay
Runner Up: Italy
Just like in Group C, the big story here revolves around injury. Star Liverpool striker Luis Suarez continues to try and come back from a leg injury he suffered in training after a spectacular season in England for Liverpool. Similar to Colombia, this won't be a make or break injury, but one that could keep them from winning the group and having to settle for second. England will give Italy and Uruguay a run for their money, and won't be an easy out by any means. The name power (Wayne Rooney) and veteran leadership (Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard) are there, but I don't think they have the guns to match Uruguay and Italy. Italy, seeking its fifth World Cup, have to be more than a little bit motivated after winning a grand total of zero games and not getting out of their group in the 2010 Cup. Gianluigi Buffon returns in net after leading Juventus to a ridiculous 33-3-2 record in Serie A this past season. Pirlo in midfield and the always dangerous, but emotional, Mario Balotelli, should be enough for Italy to advance and possibly even win, pending Suarez's health.
Critical Games
England vs. Italy, June 14th, England vs. Uruguay, June 19th, Italy vs. Uruguay, June 24th
All three teams are ranked in the top 13 in the FIFA rankings, and all three have star power up and down their lineups. England could still make some noise in this group
Group E: Ecuador, France, Honduras, Switzerland
Winner: France
Runner Up: Switzerland
Similar to Italy, France is seeking redemption for a disastrous 2010 World Cup which included a team protest against their own coach, zero wins, and an early exit. This year, just like prior to 2010, the hopes are high that France will contend not just for a spot in the knockout stage, but for the Cup itself. The group they are placed in certainly helps as they should win this one with the Swiss nipping at their heels. The Swiss had an impressive qualifying run which included seven shut outs in their ten games. They should slide in comfortably into second place.
Critical Games
France vs. Honduras, June 15th
The meltdown in 2010 in South Africa started early, so it will interesting to see how France perform and how their team reacts to the first game of this tournament.
France vs. Switzerland, June 20th
If France get off to a rocky start on June 15th, expect the Swiss to win this match as well as the group. The battle for first will be on the line here
Group F: Argentina, Nigeria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran
Winner: Argentina
Runner Up: Bosnia-Herzegovina
Argentina may have gotten the easiest draw of all the powerhouse nations, including Brazil. They are the clear cut number one and would not come as a shock if they won all three of their group matches. Second place should go to Bosnia-Herzegovina as they rolled through qualifying, posting 30 goals in 10 games. They also have striker Edin Dzeko from Manchester City, who helped City win the Premier League title. They could give Argentina a scare when they face off, but Argentina should pull away.
Critical Game
Argentina vs B-H, June 15th
We should know the fate of this group only four days into the tournament
Group G: Germany, Portugal, United States, Ghana
Winner: Germany
Runner Up: Portugal
Even though Group G is labeled the group of death, I think the top two teams are pretty clear cut. There is some concern over Christiano Ronaldo's injury and whether or not he will be healthy enough to play in the Cup. They still make it out of the group without him, but go farther in the knockout stages with him. Even with Ronaldo at full health, I think Germany wins this group rather easily. Optimistic U.S. fans will point to the fact that they beat Germany in a friendly back in June, and it was Germany that needed to rally only to come up short with the US winning 4-3. Let's be real though, that was Germany's B-squad. Yes, players like Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski played in that game, but star goalie Manuel Neuer, Germany and Bayern Munich stalwart Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Arsenal midfielder Mesut Ozil didn't play that match. Portugal snags second, but it is Germany that will come out of this group with World Cup Title expectations rather than World Cup Title hopes.
Critical Games
Germany vs. Portugal, June 16th
A game good enough for a quarter or even semi final gets played in the group stage. If Ronaldo is fit enough to play, expect an exciting one
United States vs. Ghana, June 16th
Ghana has been a thorn in the United States' side the past two World Cups. The US lost to Ghana in their final group match in 2006 that could have sent them on to the knockout stage. Then, in 2010, the US won their group, only to lose a 2-1 heart breaker in extra time in the knockout stage. If Ghana beats the US again, any hopes of advancing could go out the window early.
United States vs. Portugal, June 22nd
Assuming they beat Ghana, if the US are to advance they will need to beat Portugal, without a healthy Ronaldo, to get to the knockout stage. I expect Germany to beat both of them, so this game will be critical to put themselves in a position to come in second.
Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
Winner: Belgium
Runner Up: Russia
Belgium is the popular dark horse pick this year, but I'm not so sure the dark horse label is appropriate. It most likely has to do with their World Cup history having never won one, and only making it past the round of 16 once in 1986 (4th place). When you look at their roster, you see the makings of a favorite, not a dark horse. They have stars on every level with goalie Thibaut Courtois who just led Atletico Madrid to a Champions League Final, defender and captain Vincent Kompany, midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Mousa Dembele, and the youngster from Manchester United, Adnan Januzaj, feeding it to arguably Chelsea's best player this year, Eden Hazard. Dark horses are supposed to surprise, but it will come as no shock to me if Belgium go far, even making the finals. Russia's team is not that strong, but Algeria and South Korea should not be a threat. The luck of the draw has Russia advancing, but a knockout stage date with either Germany or Portugal sends them packing promptly afterwards.
Star Players Whose Nations Didn't Make World Cup
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden, PSG), Robert Lewandowski (Poland, Borussia Dortmund), Gareth Bale (Wales, Real Madrid), Martin Skrtel (Slovakia, Liverpool), Branislav Ivanovic (Serbia, Chelsea), Petr Cech (Czech Republic, Chelsea)
Winner: Brazil
The host nation pulls this one out as the raucous crowds and firepower up front carry them. Their road is by no means easy, as they will have to face Spain or the Dutch in the first round of the knockout stage. Add in games against Italy, Germany, and then the final and you have a daunting road ahead. Looking up and down their lineup, however, and it's hard to find a weakness. I think their 3-0 drubbing of Spain in last year's Confederations Cup was not a fluke, but more so a sign of things to come for this Cup and beyond.
Matty O
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