We're halfway to the fantasy playoffs, where does your team stand? Undefeated? Winless? Happy? Frustrated? Fear not, for although we're halfway there (most leagues have playoffs that start in Week 14 or Week 15 with the Championship matchup Week 16), you still have time to catch up. With a few well placed trades and timely pick ups, you might be able to sneak into the playoffs yet if you're at the bottom. For those at the top, don't get too comfortable. Every team is one injury, coaching change, or schedule alignment away from going on a losing streak. Here now is a review of the season thus far and things to watch for going forward.
Injuries
The ultimate equalizer. Take Jay Cutler this week for example. Having put up three solid outings in a row heading into Sunday, Cutler would have probably put up fairly decent numbers. Although he already threw one interception, he was injured early in the second quarter in a game that was, and became, a shootout. The Bears only led two times during that game, as Josh McCown threw the ball 20 times in Cutler's relief. In both of my leagues, it could be argued that had Cutler played the whole game, those teams that owned him would have won.
The problem is that, unless it's a player like Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray, it is nearly impossible to predict an injury. Who would have guessed that Cutler, Arian Foster, Jermichael Finley, Sam Bradford, Doug Martin, Nick Foles, and others would have gotten injured this past weekend? I sure didn't. This is why depth for your team going forward is so important. Come playoff time, if you don't have a solid player at every position, chances are you're going to lose. Injuries are hard to predict, but being prepared for those injuries is not.
Injuries, Part Deux
While players getting injured is bad news, players coming back from injury is great news! Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Andre Brown, Nate Burleson, Michael Crabtree, Shane Vereen, and Dennis Pitta are just a few marquee names that are coming back from injury. When assessing whether to stash a player and use up a roster spot, there are two things to keep in mind. First off, when are they coming back? Harvin reportedly could be back for the Monday night game this week, and Brown should be back in Week 9 after the Giants' bye, so those two should be owned in all leagues. The other players have less clear timetables. Teams toss around weeks when a player is expected back, but no one really knows for sure. Just look at the Gronk debacle at the start of this year. With the other players, I would say track their progress unless you have a spot you can spare, but since bye weeks are still not over, it's unlikely that you do.
The second thing to keep in mind is how effective will this player be? Take Michael Crabtree for example. He will be coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon. Not the easiest thing to come back from. Once the injury itself has healed, then he has to get back into game shape. Then he has to get back into the flow of the game (thankfully he played with Kaepernick last year). Then, in the playoffs, he'll likely have to face Richard Sherman of the Seahawks, followed by Darrelle Rivas of the Bucs. No thanks. Kaepernick does not look nearly as good as he did last year. While Crabtree's absence probably has something to do with it, it cannot account for all of it. Kaepernick is 24th in the league in passing attempts, despite the 49ers being 11th in points per game. They're a very run heavy team and I don't see Crabtree producing like he did last year. So while he is a big name that is coming back, it's likely that he won't be as effective as last year, and you might waste a roster spot, or lose a matchup if he puts up a dud and he's in your starting lineup.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of schedule can sometimes be the difference between hanging onto a player or trading him away. It might also be the explanation for a player's early, unexpected dominance, or conversely a player's early, unexpected struggles. Take a guy like Chris Johnson for example. The defenses he's had to face so far along with their rank in rush defense have been the Steelers (11th), Texans (27th), Chargers (19th), Jets (5th), Chiefs (22nd), Seahawks (10th), and 49ers (20th). While that might not seem that bad, I will say that the Chiefs and 49ers are much better than their ranking would imply. The Chiefs were gashed in the Thursday night game against the Eagles back in September, but have tightened up since. San Fran was pummeled in all phases of the game in Seattle, then followed it up with another dud against Indy where they were run all over. Apart from that, they've been stout.
Johnson, predictably, ran for his two highest rushing totals against the Texans and Chargers, gaining 96 and 90 yards, respectively. He gained 70 yards against the Steelers, but needed 25 carries to do so, and he has rushed for no more than 39 yards in any of the other four contests. A forward looking owner, however, will see the Titans play the Rams, Jacksonville (twice), Indy (twice), Raiders, Broncos, and Cardinals. Juicy matchups to say the least. There's certainly a chance he still doesn't perform as his yards per carry is at a terrible 3.2, good for 41st in the league. But if you're looking for a reason to hold onto a player, strength of schedule might be it.
They Are Who We Thought They Were...Well, Maybe Not
Before the season starts, everyone thinks they have all the answers. Adrian Peterson will break the rushing record, the Texans will be an elite team, and Jacksonville will be terrible. Well, 1 for 3, baseball Hall of Fame batting average right there. By now though, it is safe to assume that players are who they are. Unfortunately, I watched the Monday Night game last night and there's no way I can believe that Eli Manning will get better later on in the year. I thought that at one point and even tried to trade for him (thankfully that was rejected). He is after all a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback and should have to throw the ball because their defense is so bad. His offensive line though, is just so bad, and his receivers aren't as good as they would have you believe. Yes, he avoided the huge, costly mistake last night, but it's not like the Vikings defense is the '85 Bears.
At this point, barring an injury, most players will give you the production you have come to expect. With that in mind, would it be crazy to bench Tom Brady as your QB this year? No, of course not. Look at his numbers. Even with Gronk back Sunday, he still put up pedestrian numbers. I mentioned in my fantasy football preview of the AFC East that the Pats actually run the ball a lot, despite Brady's reputation as a great QB. Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden both got rushing TDs, while Brady threw for zero and had an interception. He's a big name player, putting up mediocre to awful production. Speaking of which...
Fantasy Football Is A Stats Game, Not A Name Game
Did you know that Denarius Moore, who has already had his bye week, has more fantasy points than the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Steve Smith? Fred Jackson and Knowshon Moreno are in the Top 10 for running backs. Sam Bradford is in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks. The Chiefs, not the Seahawks, Bears, or 49ers, are the top scoring fantasy defense. Knowing that this is a stats game, and not a name game, will help you when putting players in your starting lineup and making trades. I don't care if the guy is named Mark Sanchez, if he's able to put up consistent fantasy numbers, then I want him in my lineup. Use this knowledge to your advantage if you're trying to sell high or buy low on a player.
Trades on Trades on Trades
Trading is awesome. I've heard of no-trade leagues, and those sound like no-fun leagues to me. Started From The Bottom by Drake should be the official theme song of trading because it allows new life to be breathed into your team. It also just shakes up the league and makes things more interesting down the stretch. I have made 5 trades so far this year, and will probably make more before it's all said and done. My luck this year has actually come in the form of trades I have proposed to other players that have gotten rejected. Players I tried to trade for: Eli Manning, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, and David Wilson. Players I have gotten in trades: Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Calvin Johnson (but then traded him away, sad face), Ray Rice, Andrew Luck, and Stevie Johnson. Players I have given away: Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins (in both leagues), Cecil Shorts, Daryl Richardson, Tony Gonzalez (after his Monday Night explosion), and Marshawn Lynch.
So as you can see, with any trade, there's some give and take. I made a mistake giving up Johnson and Lynch, but I like all the players I've received. The Johnson trade is a perfect example, however, of trading for need. The trade was Johnson for Rice and we swapped defenses as well, although that's turning out to be a non-factor. Anyways, I had Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, and Stevie Johnson as my other receivers in a non-PPR league. My running backs, however, were Stevan Ridley (who had not performed well up to that point), Zac Stacy, Ronnie Hillman, and Ben Tate. With that in mind, I felt I could afford to give up an elite receiver for what I thought was, and still think can be, an elite RB. Johnson will probably help the team I traded him to more than Rice will help me, but that's the thing; Rice will still help me. Trades are about improving your team, not about how much you will think it will help the other team. In the end, the question was would Rice and the player I put in to replace Johnson outscore Johnson and one of my other RBs on a weekly basis? I thought the answer was yes, so I pulled the trigger. You might win some, you'll definitely lose some, but trades are one of the more exciting aspects of fantasy football.
Also, be sure to know when your league's trade deadline is, if you have one. Most deadlines are early to mid-November.
Follow The Future, Don't Follow The Points
This is just to remind you that just because a player put up a monster game last week out of nowhere, doesn't mean you should scramble to pick him up. Obviously a guy like Julius Thomas is an exception to the rule, but most of the time when a player out of nowhere puts up a good game, that will be their best game of the year. So if you pick him up, chances are, he'll never be as good on your team as he was off of it. For instance, Joseph Fauria tight end for the Lions, was a popular add this past week due to his three touchdown performance the week prior. The problem was no one had him on their team that week, he only had three catches, he had already put up three zeroes earlier in the year, and he predictably put up one catch for 15 yards this past Sunday when people were probably actually playing him. I will say it right now that Fauria will not have another game like that the rest of the year, and might not even put up three more TDs the rest of the way. A better option would have been a guy like Jordan Reed or Timothy Wright who were getting targets and, while maybe not putting up a monster day like Fauria, would give you consistent chances to make an impact. The hype train builds up on some of these players fast. Just don't be the one driving the train when it crashes.
Players That Will Do Better The Second Half of the Season
Chris Johnson, everyone on Pittsburgh, Josh Freeman, Zach Ertz, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Cordarrelle Patterson, Miles Austin, Adrian Peterson (scary, I know), Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, RG3, Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas, Jordan Reed, Roddy White
Players That Will Do Worse The Second Half of the Season
Phillip Rivers, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, Panthers D/ST, Tony Gonzalez, Charles Clay, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Players In The Top 5 Of Their Position That Will Do Even Better
Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Seattle D/ST, 49ers D/ST
Matty O
