In sports, people are always looking for that feel good story. A team rising up against the odds to overcome some insurmountable obstacle. There seems to be one team almost every year that, from a neutral perspective, you can cheer for. The team this year is the Indianapolis Colts.
Before discussing their off the field story, let's examine their play on the field. I mentioned obstacles before, but that was only brushing the surface of this team. Their 2011-12 campaign saw their franchise quarterback miss the entire season, caused their head coach to get fired, and saw their season reach an 0-13 mark (they finished 2-14). Their defense, while never great, looked horrendous at times even with the likes of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both four time pro bowlers. Their star wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a down year, leading some to question if his skills had declined as rumors circulated that he might leave the team, especially if Peyton Manning left.
As if turned out, with the Colts holding the number one pick in the draft, Manning decided to leave. Owner Jim Irsay hired a new head coach in Chuck Pagano and a new GM in Ryan Grigson. Wayne, surprisingly decided to stay to help lead in this new era for the Colts. The Colts selected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who was considered by many to be the most NFL ready of all the quarterbacks in his draft. While he may have had the skills, his players around him were a disaster. Jeff Saturday, Peyton's longtime, Pro Bowl center, left to join Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Outside of Wayne, they did not have a decent or known wide receiver on their roster. Their starting running back was Donald Brown, entering his fourth year in the league but never eclipsing more than 645 yards or 5 touchdowns in one season.
The Disney movie script for this is they went undefeated and Luck threw for a record number of yards. Well, not quite. it certainly did not help to face the Bears in Chicago for Luck's first game, especially seeing how well their defense has played this year. Having said that, even in a 41-21 loss, Luck did not look lost out there. Sure he threw three interceptions, but Tony Romo threw five against this defense. Luck threw for 309 yards, more yards than Romo, Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford threw against the Bears this year. There was a fair amount of pressure on him throughout the game, but he stayed strong in the pocket and made some good, strong throws. So while it might not have been Cam Newton's 422 yard rookie debut, it still showed signs of promise and growth.
The Colts first win came the following week against the Minnesota Vikings. While passing yards might have been his most impressive stat in his debut, his zero turnovers were the most impressive part in the Vikings game. He only threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns, but paced the game and seemed in more control than a rookie should be. In the meantime, he became comfortable with Wayne to the tune of 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also discovered a formidable number two receiver in Donnie Avery who gained 111 yards on nine catches. The Vikings had actually tied the game with 31 seconds left, setting up Luck's first game winning drive. He was able to get the Colts into field goal range as Adam Vinatieri knocked in a 53 yard field goal for the win.
After a heartbreaking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (Jags scored an 80 yard TD pass with 45 seconds left) the team received more bad news. New head coach Chuck Pagano had been diagnosed with promyelocytic leukemia and would be undergoing treatment at a nearby hospital. It is a serious condition with a high risk of remission, which could cause treatment to last for years. The players had rallied around Pagano, as he was able to keep the ship afloat even after the loss of Peyton Manning while installing a new coaching scheme. Unlike the Sean Payton situation in New Orleans, the Colts rallied around their situation and gave an emotional effort the likes of which had not been seen in a while.
Their next game after this incident was against the Green Bay Packers. The Pack were 2-2 going into that game, but their record was slightly misleading. They had played arguably the best defense at the time in the 49ers and lost their first game. Then they beat the Bears pretty soundly with the final score being 23-10. They followed that up with a loss in a hostile Seattle environment on Monday Night Football and may or may not have been robbed by the replacement officials. Their game before the Colts saw them fend off a desperate Saints team that seemed to give everything they had. The Saints came up short, however, 28-27.
Enter the Colts. Even though the emotion and desire to win for their coach was there, this seemed like quite the task. The Packers offense had struggled early on, but looked like they hit their stride against the Saints. Some might say that everyone can score on the Saints, but it's not like the Colts defense was doing all that well either. They let the Bears hang 41, the Vikings to post 20, and the lowly Jags to post 22. Now they faced MVP Aaron Rodgers who puts up video game numbers in the passing game. Oh boy.
The game started out like everyone thought. The Packers dominated on both sides of the ball and led 21-3 at half. Then in the third quarter, the Colts had an offensive explosion. Luck threw a TD and ran for one in the quarter as the defense posted a shutout. Add on a field goal and it was a 21-19 game. The Colts managed to actually grab the lead with a fourth quarter field goal, but Rodgers had the response. After a long Alex Green run, Rodgers found James Jones for an eight yard TD, although they missed the two point conversion. It was Packers 27, Colts 22 with 4:30 left to play.
Luck then drove the Colts 80 yards while missing only three out of eleven passes on the drive, ending in a four yard touchdown to Reggie Wayne. The crowd was going crazy, especially after Donald Brown was able to run in the two point conversion. The Colts now led 30-27 with 35 seconds left. Unfortunately, that's about all the time Rodgers needs. He went from his own 20 to the Colts 33 in three plays, not counting the spike to stop the clock. This set up a Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal, a lengthy kick but not unreasonable in the domed stadium of the Colts. Instead Crosby missed it wide right and the Colts won an improbable victory. After the game, they found out that Pagano had been released from the hospital and watched their win from the comfort of his own home. A great ending to a great day.
Fast forward to today. The Colts sit at 5-3 and are the 5th overall seed in the AFC. Bet no one saw that coming. Unfortunately Houston plays in their division so they would likely need to secure a wild card spot to get into the playoffs. Is it possible? Given the recent play of Andrew Luck (passed for a rookie record 433 yards yesterday against the Dolphins) I wouldn't count them out. Their remaining schedule is at Jacksonville, at New England, home against Buffalo, at Detroit, home against Tennessee, then a home and home with Houston with a game at Kansas City sandwiched between. The New England and two Houston games would be the only ones where it might be a stretch to pick them. Still, New England has lost to Arizona this year and the Houston games are at the end of the year. This may result in Houston resting some of their starters if they have the number one seed in the AFC locked up.
Not just that, but Coach Pagano was well enough to be able to give an emotional post game speech to his players in the locker room after their Dolphin victory. Doesn't get much better than that. So if you're not with the Bears, given up on the Cowboys (myself), or a diehard Jaguars fan, consider rooting for these guys. Luck is making people ask "RG-Who?" and their story with their coach is awesome. They might not win the Super Bowl, but they could have more fans than any team in the playoffs.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Pro vs College
I was watching Mike and Mike this morning and they were discussing an interesting notion of the best college team in a sport going up against the worst pro team in a sport. They brought up some great points and reasoning on who might win. The two sports they covered were basketball and football.
This whole discussion stemmed from comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier made when he claimed Alabama, the number one team in the country, could beat some NFL teams and claimed Vegas odds makers might favor Alabama by a bit. Hold on there. Vegas odds makers actually did, and after analyzing everything, gave the Jaguars a 24 point spread. That is absolutely ridiculous and whoever made that spread should not be making spreads anymore. The best point Mike and Mike brought up is the fact that the NFL is such a team game. An NFL roster is made up of 53 people. Obviously there are 11 starters on defense, and 11 on offense. The issue is that most of those starters do not play the whole game. If you include special teams, pretty much everyone that suits up for a game, barring injury, will play.
That is one of the main issues. I suppose you could make a case that Alabama's starters could hang for a series or two against the Jags starters, but Alabama's reserves would get destroyed by the Jags reserves. Realize the Jags players get NFL type workouts, professional diets, and do this for a living. As good as this Alabama team is, many of them won't sniff the pros. Starting quarterback AJ McCarron has struggled in the past against elite college defenses such as LSU. Realize that Aaron Rodgers recently struggled against the "bad" Jags defense. McCarron and Rodgers aren't even in the same class yet, to cover a 24 point spread, McCarron will have to lead at least a few drives down the field. Not going to happen.
The last difference with football is the sheer size of players. The NFL and NCAA have a rule in place to keep kids in college for a longer period before they go to the pros. This is smart for safety reasons. There are certainly some big, scary players in college. But the scariest linebacker in college couldn't hold a candle to Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis. These college kids would get crushed. Quarterbacks are usually the ones getting all the publicity about staying in school, but I think they are the ones that are able to come out earlier. They really don't need to bulk up and should stay in school only to either achieve personal goals, earn their degree, or get better mentally. All other positions should stay in school all four years to have extra years with their lifting program and to bulk up before they start seeing the likes of Lewis and Willis running full speed to take their head off.
Last year's basketball situation, however, provides a different story. That Kentucky team last year was probably the best college basketball team I've ever seen. I understand that, unlike potentially Alabama football this year, they did not go undefeated. They lost in the SEC tournament, which I still can't explain, and in Indiana. The Indiana game I can forgive them for because that was one of the most loud and hostile environments I had ever seen. Indiana also turned out to be a really good squad and gave Kentucky a run for their money in the NCAA tournament before losing in a 102-90 shootout. But look at that score. 100 points! Obviously their defense was shaky that game, but college teams usually only drop triple digits on the Illinois State's of the world. Not a top 20 team. Their starting five was simply scary from a skill standpoint.
Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2 overall pick), Terrence Jones (#18 overall pick), Marquis Teague (#29 overall pick, Go Bulls), and Doron Lamb (#42 overall pick). Darius Miller, one of their bench players, was also taken as the number 46 overall pick. Davis was so good that he actually played on the US Olympic team. Even though this was more so the result of injuries to other big men, he still contributed and made a great first impression playing with the big boys. On the flip side of this, you have the Charlotte Bobcats from a year ago.
My goodness what a bad team. The Not Top 10 on Sportscenter just became a Bobcats highlight reel. The best squad they could probably put out there would be DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, and Derrick Brown. To be fair, all these players, except for Brown, were first round draft picks (Brown went in the second round, 40th overall). The problem is they were all selected by the Bobcats. Given Michael Jordan's prowess for drafting busts, it makes the first round thing kind of irrelevant when equating it to actual skill. Mike and Mike were suggesting that unlike football, this matchup would be a playoff like seven game series. I think this actually gives Kentucky a huge advantage.
For those of you that don't watch college basketball, Rupp Arena, where Kentucky plays, is a madhouse. People are gaga for their basketball there and the place is always sold out and rocking no matter who they play. The Bobcats meanwhile, recently offered a deal where fans could purchase this year's season tickets and get next year's for free, just to get more people in the seats. That is an unheard of deal and exemplifies the sorry state the Bobcats are in (personally, if I lived in Charlotte I probably would have gotten in on that deal. A free season of basketball? Insane). I feel that NBA arenas in general are not nearly as raucous or hard to play in as places like Rupp Arena, Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke, or Fogg Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas. I think the Wildcats would actually sweep at home, meaning they would only need to steal one in Charlotte. Although the home court would certainly help, that is not the only thing going for Kentucky.
Unlike football, you don't have to be extremely bulked up to compete at an NBA level. It certainly helps, as Lebron James has shown by becoming more explosive as he gets stronger, but is not a necessity. James did well coming straight out of high school. While this may be an extreme example given James's unique athleticism, the discrepancy is not as great as in football. I think that length is much more important, which Anthony Davis has in spades.
If Kentucky were to win this matchup, I think that is where they do it. Davis inside blocking shots, and using his unique ability to pass and jump shoot, would be the difference. I actually think the Bobcats have favorable matchups with Kemba and Henderson. Both are great slashers and cutters to the basket and can shoot when called upon. Henderson and Kemba are probably the best defensive players on that team as well so they could make it difficult to get the ball to Davis or have Gilchrist put up his jump shot. I still think that Kentucky would be able to exploit their other matchups and give Charlotte a hard time.
The final difference between the basketball debate and the football debate is that apart from the starters in basketball, most other guys don't play. In last year's National Championship game against a very good Kansas Jayhawks team, the Wildcats only played three players from their bench. Darius Miller, who was drafted, played 25 minutes, while Eloy Vargas and Kyle Wiltjer only played three minutes each. So essentially Kentucky played six people the whole game. Three minutes in basketball is not enough to cause a substantial change in my opinion. Yes a team could go on a run, but as a coach you can slow the game down or limit the amount of times the backups touch the ball. Football is not the same.
I've seen times where a backup offensive lineman comes into a game, gets dominated by the defensive lineman, forces a fumble, and causes a turnover. Special teams could probably expose those problems even more because those players usually are the backups on defense and offense. NFL backups can work over college ones, which I guarantee would cause at least one turnover and terrible field position for the college team, in this case Alabama.
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Jags and Wildcats and not enough to Alabama and Charlotte. Honestly though, Alabama would get blown off the line if they played the Jags and 24 points might be the spread at halftime. I would crank that up to about 50 if you wanted a fair spread for that game. Kentucky-Charlotte would be a much more interesting proposition but given how poorly the Bobcats played and the way Kentucky dominated the college basketball scene last year, it is certainly plausible the Wildcats could pull it off in a seven game series, and certainly in just one game. While the ratings and publicity for those matchups would be great, for now we'll have to settle for Alabama-LSU, Jacksonville-Detroit, Charlotte-Indiana, and Kentucky-Maryland. Enjoy.
Matty O
This whole discussion stemmed from comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier made when he claimed Alabama, the number one team in the country, could beat some NFL teams and claimed Vegas odds makers might favor Alabama by a bit. Hold on there. Vegas odds makers actually did, and after analyzing everything, gave the Jaguars a 24 point spread. That is absolutely ridiculous and whoever made that spread should not be making spreads anymore. The best point Mike and Mike brought up is the fact that the NFL is such a team game. An NFL roster is made up of 53 people. Obviously there are 11 starters on defense, and 11 on offense. The issue is that most of those starters do not play the whole game. If you include special teams, pretty much everyone that suits up for a game, barring injury, will play.
That is one of the main issues. I suppose you could make a case that Alabama's starters could hang for a series or two against the Jags starters, but Alabama's reserves would get destroyed by the Jags reserves. Realize the Jags players get NFL type workouts, professional diets, and do this for a living. As good as this Alabama team is, many of them won't sniff the pros. Starting quarterback AJ McCarron has struggled in the past against elite college defenses such as LSU. Realize that Aaron Rodgers recently struggled against the "bad" Jags defense. McCarron and Rodgers aren't even in the same class yet, to cover a 24 point spread, McCarron will have to lead at least a few drives down the field. Not going to happen.
The last difference with football is the sheer size of players. The NFL and NCAA have a rule in place to keep kids in college for a longer period before they go to the pros. This is smart for safety reasons. There are certainly some big, scary players in college. But the scariest linebacker in college couldn't hold a candle to Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis. These college kids would get crushed. Quarterbacks are usually the ones getting all the publicity about staying in school, but I think they are the ones that are able to come out earlier. They really don't need to bulk up and should stay in school only to either achieve personal goals, earn their degree, or get better mentally. All other positions should stay in school all four years to have extra years with their lifting program and to bulk up before they start seeing the likes of Lewis and Willis running full speed to take their head off.
Last year's basketball situation, however, provides a different story. That Kentucky team last year was probably the best college basketball team I've ever seen. I understand that, unlike potentially Alabama football this year, they did not go undefeated. They lost in the SEC tournament, which I still can't explain, and in Indiana. The Indiana game I can forgive them for because that was one of the most loud and hostile environments I had ever seen. Indiana also turned out to be a really good squad and gave Kentucky a run for their money in the NCAA tournament before losing in a 102-90 shootout. But look at that score. 100 points! Obviously their defense was shaky that game, but college teams usually only drop triple digits on the Illinois State's of the world. Not a top 20 team. Their starting five was simply scary from a skill standpoint.
Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2 overall pick), Terrence Jones (#18 overall pick), Marquis Teague (#29 overall pick, Go Bulls), and Doron Lamb (#42 overall pick). Darius Miller, one of their bench players, was also taken as the number 46 overall pick. Davis was so good that he actually played on the US Olympic team. Even though this was more so the result of injuries to other big men, he still contributed and made a great first impression playing with the big boys. On the flip side of this, you have the Charlotte Bobcats from a year ago.
My goodness what a bad team. The Not Top 10 on Sportscenter just became a Bobcats highlight reel. The best squad they could probably put out there would be DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, and Derrick Brown. To be fair, all these players, except for Brown, were first round draft picks (Brown went in the second round, 40th overall). The problem is they were all selected by the Bobcats. Given Michael Jordan's prowess for drafting busts, it makes the first round thing kind of irrelevant when equating it to actual skill. Mike and Mike were suggesting that unlike football, this matchup would be a playoff like seven game series. I think this actually gives Kentucky a huge advantage.
For those of you that don't watch college basketball, Rupp Arena, where Kentucky plays, is a madhouse. People are gaga for their basketball there and the place is always sold out and rocking no matter who they play. The Bobcats meanwhile, recently offered a deal where fans could purchase this year's season tickets and get next year's for free, just to get more people in the seats. That is an unheard of deal and exemplifies the sorry state the Bobcats are in (personally, if I lived in Charlotte I probably would have gotten in on that deal. A free season of basketball? Insane). I feel that NBA arenas in general are not nearly as raucous or hard to play in as places like Rupp Arena, Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke, or Fogg Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas. I think the Wildcats would actually sweep at home, meaning they would only need to steal one in Charlotte. Although the home court would certainly help, that is not the only thing going for Kentucky.
Unlike football, you don't have to be extremely bulked up to compete at an NBA level. It certainly helps, as Lebron James has shown by becoming more explosive as he gets stronger, but is not a necessity. James did well coming straight out of high school. While this may be an extreme example given James's unique athleticism, the discrepancy is not as great as in football. I think that length is much more important, which Anthony Davis has in spades.
If Kentucky were to win this matchup, I think that is where they do it. Davis inside blocking shots, and using his unique ability to pass and jump shoot, would be the difference. I actually think the Bobcats have favorable matchups with Kemba and Henderson. Both are great slashers and cutters to the basket and can shoot when called upon. Henderson and Kemba are probably the best defensive players on that team as well so they could make it difficult to get the ball to Davis or have Gilchrist put up his jump shot. I still think that Kentucky would be able to exploit their other matchups and give Charlotte a hard time.
The final difference between the basketball debate and the football debate is that apart from the starters in basketball, most other guys don't play. In last year's National Championship game against a very good Kansas Jayhawks team, the Wildcats only played three players from their bench. Darius Miller, who was drafted, played 25 minutes, while Eloy Vargas and Kyle Wiltjer only played three minutes each. So essentially Kentucky played six people the whole game. Three minutes in basketball is not enough to cause a substantial change in my opinion. Yes a team could go on a run, but as a coach you can slow the game down or limit the amount of times the backups touch the ball. Football is not the same.
I've seen times where a backup offensive lineman comes into a game, gets dominated by the defensive lineman, forces a fumble, and causes a turnover. Special teams could probably expose those problems even more because those players usually are the backups on defense and offense. NFL backups can work over college ones, which I guarantee would cause at least one turnover and terrible field position for the college team, in this case Alabama.
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Jags and Wildcats and not enough to Alabama and Charlotte. Honestly though, Alabama would get blown off the line if they played the Jags and 24 points might be the spread at halftime. I would crank that up to about 50 if you wanted a fair spread for that game. Kentucky-Charlotte would be a much more interesting proposition but given how poorly the Bobcats played and the way Kentucky dominated the college basketball scene last year, it is certainly plausible the Wildcats could pull it off in a seven game series, and certainly in just one game. While the ratings and publicity for those matchups would be great, for now we'll have to settle for Alabama-LSU, Jacksonville-Detroit, Charlotte-Indiana, and Kentucky-Maryland. Enjoy.
Matty O
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