Happy 2014 and welcome to the NFL playoffs. Four games will be played this weekend as the top two teams in each conference (Denver, New England in the AFC, Seattle, Carolina in the NFC) await the winners. Here's a breakdown of all four games.
Kansas City at Indianapolis, Saturday 4:35 ET
Case For Kansas City:
The Chiefs started the season out strong, but have faltered down the stretch. Since their bye week, they have gone 2-5, although one of those losses was in Week 17 when they played their backups. This team was known for their defense, but it has actually been their defense that has let them down in recent weeks. Since their bye week, they have given up nearly 28 points per game with the only good showing coming in Week 14 against a completely lost Redskins team. Still, they have Pro Bowlers across the board and should be well rested for this game. They were the only playoff team that was able to rest their starters in Week 17 since they could neither improve or fall in playoff position. Alex Smith has played better than I thought he would in KC and Jamaal Charles might be the MVP if not for a man named Peyton. This team is backing into the playoffs and will need their superstars to step up to win this game.
Case For Indy:
See Week 16. The Colts played the Chiefs in Arrowhead when the Chiefs could still improve their playoff position. The Colts came in and surprisingly dominated the Chiefs as they won 23-7. The Colts are a confusing team because of the teams they have beaten, as well as the teams they have lost to. They beat Seattle, Denver, and blew out the Chiefs and 49ers. On the other hand, they have losses to the Dolphins, a 38-8 meltdown against the Rams at home, and a 40-11 laugher in Arizona. Andrew Luck is a great quarterback, but the weapons around him are limited without Reggie Wayne and his offensive line is average at best. They come in hot having won three straight and are the only home team this weekend that plays their game in the comfort of a dome. Protecting Luck will be key if they wish to advance to the next round.
Bottom Line:
While the Chiefs' pass rush could keep them in this game, I think it will be a repeat of Week 16. The Chiefs racked up most of their wins against backup quality quarterbacks, but have lost against Peyton Manning (twice), Phillip Rivers (twice), and Luck. I think the trend continues as the Colts advance 24-14.
New Orleans at Philadelphia, Saturday 8:10 ET
Case For NO:
Honestly, it's hard to make a case for New Orleans on the road. I can't recall a team that has such a discrepancy between how they perform at home vs how they perform at home. Just look at their series with Carolina this year when they crushed the Panthers at home (31-13), and then lost to them in Carolina just two weeks later (13-17). Even when they stayed in a dome on the road in St. Louis they looked awful as the Rams beat them 27-16, with the game being much more one-sided than the final score indicated. But, if they can find a way to overcome this away from the Superdome thing, then they should be able to make a run. The offense is loaded with Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles, and Pierre Thomas, but you already knew that. It's the defense that has stepped up this year, led by defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Following up one of the worst defensive years in NFL history in 2012, this year's defense flies to the ball, makes turnovers, and keeps the Saints in games on the road. If they can bring their Superdome version to Philly on Saturday, they have a great chance to win.
Case For Philly:
There's a lot to like here for the Eagles. It took a little while for Chip Kelly's system to catch on, but it seems to be rolling on all cylinders now. Nick Foles is playing like an All-Pro, and LeSean McCoy has blossomed into one of the top three backs in the league. Their defense has also played better as of late, holding the explosive Cowboys' and Bears' offenses to just 33 points combined in their final two games. Apart from a slight hiccup in Week 15 in Minnesota, this team has looked very dangerous and could be one of those teams from the Wild Card round that takes their momentum and turns it into a deep playoff run. Of all the Wild Card round teams, I think Philly has the best shot of any to reach the Super Bowl.
Bottom Line:
As good as that Saints' offense is, it's hard to deny how bad their team turns on the road. Philly is a hostile environment, and I'm not sure the Saints will fare well. If it was in the Superdome, I'd probably take the Saints in a blowout, but instead I'm going to have to pick the Eagles. 35-21.
San Diego at Cincinnati, Sunday 1:05 ET
Case For San Diego:
The Chargers are very similar to the Colts in that they have impressive wins (at Philly, Dallas, at Denver, KC twice), but head scratching losses (Houston, at Tennessee, at Oakland, at Washington, at Miami). So the question becomes which Chargers team will come to play? After a couple of so-so years, Phillip Rivers has returned to Pro Bowl form to lead this offense with oft injured Ryan Mathews, NFL cast off Danny Woodhead, and rookie WR Keenan Allen. Their defense has played better as of late, but is still not considered elite, perhaps not even good. Rivers, like numerous quarterbacks in this day and age, will have to carry his team if they want to get this win in Cincy. He certainly has the ability to do so, but everyone else needs to come along for the ride as well.
Case For Cincy:
Saints, AFC edition. All five of the Bengals' losses have come on the road, but they have looked absolutely dominant at home, particularly their defense. Even with multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball, they have been able to stay true to their scheme, stop the run, and pressure the quarterback. Now they get a Chargers team that they were able to hold to 10 points in San Diego en route to a 17-10 victory in Week 13. Now they get them at home where the forecast is calling for 34 degree weather with rain turning to snow. While the Andy Dalton to AJ Green connection is a nice one, I think Cincy would be wise to run the ball with their thunder (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and their lightning (Giovani Bernard). I think this could turn into an old school grind it out kind of game, and the Bengals are well equipped to do that on both sides of the ball.
Bottom Line:
Cincy should be able to pound the ball and control the clock. Dalton will take his shots to AJ Green when he needs to, but Dalton should try and be a game manager in this one. He shouldn't be the reason why they win, but he shouldn't be the reason why they lose either. If Rivers plays a perfect game, he gives his team a chance, but I don't think the weather or Bengals' defense will allow that to happen. Bengals win by the same score they beat the Chargers by in Week 13, 17-10.
San Francisco at Green Bay, Sunday 4:40 ET
Case For San Fran:
Just like last year, the 49ers have caught fire late and are riding a tremendous wave of momentum into the playoffs. They've won their last six games with all four of their losses coming against playoff teams. They are probably the most balanced team in the Wild Card round with a top three defense, Frank Gore still running strong, and a passing attack that includes Colin Kaepernick, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and a healthy Michael Crabtree. Unfortunately for the 49ers, due to Seattle winning the division, this 12-4 team will have to go on the road in the Wild Card round. With their balanced attack and stout defense, however, they are one of the few teams that should find success both at home and on the road.
Case For Green Bay:
The Pack are getting healthy at just the right time. Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned last week and were the main reasons why Green Bay was able to win the NFC North away from Chicago. With both of them healthy, Green Bay probably has the most explosive offense in the playoffs next to Denver. They have A-Rod throwing to Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones, with a quality running back in Eddie Lacy. The major concern here is their defense which is 25th in total defense with only 22 takeaways this year. Even with all the weapons that the Pack have, it will still be difficult to move the ball against this talented 49er defense. The Packers' defense will have to make a statement if they are to pull off this victory.
Bottom Line:
The 49ers are too balanced and the Pack lack a good defense. It took a fourth down miracle for the Pack to beat the Bears last week, and the 49ers are a much better team, especially defensively. I think the cold keeps this low scoring, but the 49ers pull it off in their quest for a second straight Super Bowl appearance. 49ers win 20-14.
Matty O
