Where to start with the story lines for this one? Brother vs Brother. Ray Lewis in his last hurrah. Unknown backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick turning a defensive team into an offensive juggernaut. The 49ers with a chance to tie the record for most Super Bowls won as well as having never lost a Super Bowl they were in. The matchup, surprising as it is, presents a wide array of intriguing factors.
I Thought The Ravens Would Be In the Super Bowl When...
Well, this evening. When the clock struck 0:00, and not a second sooner with Tom Brady on the other side. I can honestly say that I did not see this coming and actually thought the Pats would blow out the Ravens. I thought the Ravens would handle Indy and rattle rookie QB Andrew Luck, which they did. The Broncos game was certainly an eye opener as they were able to win in double overtime, despite facing a Broncos team that had had the previous week off to rest and prepare. Then came a Patriots team that had averaged 35 points per game in the regular season and had just steamrolled a very talented Texans team the week before. Ray Lewis's motivation could only go so far, or so I thought.
The Ravens, a team that struggled mightily in the regular season on the road, (4-4, though the four wins were an ugly 9-6 game against the Chiefs, one against the Browns, by 3 against a Byron Leftwich led Steelers team, and by 3 in overtime to a struggling Chargers team) hung with the vaunted Patriots offense in the first half and pulled away in the second. Even when the score was 28-13, however, there was still a sense that Brady might be able to pull it off even with two minutes left. Heck, if anyone could do it, Brady was the guy. Instead, an emotional Lewis and a precise Joe Flacco led Ravens team are marching into New Orleans representing the AFC.
I Thought The 49ers Would Be In the Super Bowl When...
Well, right around here. This was when I bought into Kaepernick and realized he was a significant help to a 49ers offense that was really holding them back from being truly elite. Even though I thought they would face Seattle in the NFC Championship, they still got to the destination I believed they would. All of a sudden, this 49ers team that was known for its defense, is now a very formidable offensive team. They already hung 41 on the Packers in the divisional round, and racked up 28 on Atlanta in the Georgia Dome today. While I would not call either of those teams' defenses elite, it was still impressive to watch how easily Kap was able to dissect the defenses once he found his groove. They'll certainly face a greater test in the Super Bowl.
Ravens X-Factor - Vonta Leach
For those that don't know, Leach is the guy who has been clearing the way for Ray Rice the past two years, and previously was in Houston making Arian Foster a household name. Wherever he goes, good running backs tend to follow, and for good reason. He's an excellent blocker and reads plays well. He's also fairly good at catching balls out of the backfield for a fullback. It will be critical for the Ravens to control the tempo and establish the running game against an excellent 49ers defense. If you are one dimensional against that D, expect little to no success. If Leach can clear up some holes for Rice, not only will it help the running game, but it will also open up the play action pass allowing Flacco to bomb it deep to Torrey Smith for some big gains.
49ers X-Factor - LaMichael James
James, a former star running back at Oregon, does it all. He can run inside, outside, catch balls, and return kicks. In the NFC title game he had 3 returns for 64 yards, one catch for 4 yards, and 5 rushes for 34 yards and a score. He's a great compliment to Gore because James is much quicker and relies on speed rather than strength. The read option style attack that Kap now runs with the 49ers is very similar to the one he ran in his time at college, so he has been integrated into the offense seamlessly. His value as a kick returner allows the 49ers to start with great field position which will be crucial in the Super Bowl given the defenses of the two teams. I expect James to be integrated into the offense more going forward, and the Super Bowl would be a great place to have a breakout game. If the 49ers win, check out James's stat line. I bet it is outstanding.
Ravens Win If...Joe Flacco Protects The Ball
Flacco is an interesting QB. Since he came into the league, he has always been on the cusp of greatness. He's led his team deep into the playoffs, despite not putting up mind boggling numbers like the Aaron Rodgers and Tom Bradys of the world. I think some people use the "Mark Sanchez" excuse with Flacco, downgrading him because his defense is so good. It also helps to have Rice in the backfield with you. That being said, he has proved his worth and now is in the big game. The 49ers defense, however, is an active one with 25 takeaways this year, good for top 10 in the NFL. They swarm, wrap up, and tackle well. Flacco will be confronted with some make or break decisions this game because of the pressure San Fran will put on that offense. He needs to protect the ball and avoid giving the ball up, especially on their side of the field. In the AFC title game, he did not turn it over once. In the Ravens 6 losses this year, he had 10. Protect that ball Joe.
49ers Win If...Kaepernick Plays Like Kaepernick
He just needs to stay within himself. He is still in his second year and that start to the first half today was not the prettiest thing in the world. I'm not sure if he mounts the same comeback if they fall down to the Ravens. They need to continue to stick with the read option that has been working so well for them and trust Colin to make the right reads. While Lewis and the Ravens might be great at being in position, speed is speed and Colin has a lot of it. If he can find a seam, I think the age and wear and tear from the playoffs will show, and the Ravens won't be able to catch him. He has plenty of weapons in the passing game with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Gore and James out of the backfield, and even Randy Moss. He needs to continue to have the confidence to make strong passes and trust his receivers to make a play. If he can do that, their offense should click like it has recently and they can rely on their defense to make the stops they need to.
John Harbaugh Could Have Lost The Season When...They Got Demolished By Houston
Defensive stars Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb got injured the week before in the Dallas game. Then, the Ravens go on the road and get absolutely destroyed by the Texans 43-13. They were probably the ugliest 5-2 team you could imagine. 4 of their 5 wins came by 7 points or less and they also lost to the Eagles, who turned out to be a bad team this year. Although the Bengals and Steelers were also struggling, it was anyone's division. After their bye week, they stormed out of the gates and won their next four games. Partly thanks to a Big Ben injury, the Ravens were able to take the division and advance to the playoffs. This was a team that was on the ropes and even struggled down the stretch, but John was able to keep the team together enough to get back the inspirational leader (Ray Lewis) of the team and lead them to the Super Bowl.
Jim Harbaugh Could Have Lost The Season When...He Stuck With Colin Kaepernick
Even though I finally came around to Kaepernick, I disagreed with the decision to stick with him. Say what you will about Alex Smith, he was having a pretty good year up to that point. They were 6-2 and had already beaten Green Bay in Lambeau, as well as division rivals Seattle and Arizona. Then, Smith gets hurt in the St. Louis game, and Kap comes in, plays well, and leads them to a...tie. But any quarterback can have a good game. Heck, Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six TDs about a year ago and spent all of this season warming the bench behind a rookie. Smith had the experience and, in my opinion, had earned his spot whenever he was well enough to come back. Harbaugh didn't see it that way and chose to go with the high flying, read option specialist Kaepernick. Imagine what happens if that doesn't work out. It very easily could have tanked.
Their next opponents were against Chicago, in the Superdome against the Saints, at St. Louis, Miami, then in New England and Seattle. If they start to slide, then you have a controversy of who to start. Then the offense has to shift back to a more conventional style with Alex Smith. Then you lose a few more games and throw Kap back in there because the fans are booing mercilessly. Then you're among a handful of other coaches unemployed at the end of the season. As it stands, Jim made the right, some might say risky, choice of sticking with his gut. Now we'll see if his gut can get them the Lombardi Trophy.
So Who Wins This Thing?
As much as I respect Ray Lewis for what he has brought to the game as well as effected people off the field, I got to give the edge to the 49ers. As I mentioned earlier, I think the speed of the 49ers will expose the Ravens, even Lewis as the game goes on. In close games like this, special teams always make a significant difference and you have to give the edge to the 49ers with James and Ted Ginn Jr. returning kicks and punts, respectively. Even with the defense of these two teams, I think it's a high scoring game with the 49ers winning 34-24. I would love for Ray to ride off into the sunset, but I think at the end of this game, it will be more so about the 49ers and their reemergence as a super power in the NFL. If Kap is indeed the solution, I expect multiple playoff appearances as well as Super Bowl appearances in the years to come.
Matty O
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