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Saturday, April 27, 2013

Draft Recap

Best Draft:  St. Louis Rams
Just a news flash for those on the 49ers and Seahawks bandwagons, there was only one team that went undefeated in the NFC West last year.  It was these St. Louis Rams (tied one time against the 49ers).  Their big name pick was trading up to get WR Tavon Austin out of West Virginia.  A ridiculously quick player and part of the reason why Geno Smith was drafted so high, Austin will provide a great target for Sam Bradford now that Danny Amendola is out of town.  On top of that they added Austin's teammate Stedman Bailey, another WR, as well as Alec Ogletree who, in my opinion, is the best linebacker in this draft. 

The main reason why Ogletree dropped was because of off the field issues, mainly an arrest in 2010 and 2013, but with Jeff Fisher, a no nonsense kind of coach, I think he'll be able to put it together.  When he was on the field, he was dominant in a strong Georgia defense.  Add in Barrett Jones, the center for Alabama's National Title team, and you have a tremendous draft.  With the acquisition of Jake Long in free agency, this team should contend, if not win, the NFC West.

Worst Draft:  Cleveland Browns
There were a few teams that could be up for this category, but I went with the Browns because of their lack to fill needs.  While I like a couple of their players they selected, I did not like how they seemed to completely ignore the offensive side of the ball.  They didn't draft an offensive player until the 7th round, and it was an offensive lineman.  I actually really like defensive end Barkevious Mingo, not just for his name, but because he made plays at LSU and will really help any unit he's with.  The problem is that defense is not the problem.  They already added linebacker Paul Kruger in free agency and took a safety, corner, and another defensive end in the draft.  They also have Joe Haden, one of the best corners in the league.

This was a defense that finished 23rd out of 32 teams in total defense.  Certainly not desirable, but better than New England, Indianapolis, and Washington; all teams that made the playoffs last year.  They also only had Haden available for 11 games.  On the offensive side, they finished 25th overall with Trent Richardson having a phenomenal rookie year.  Can he do that again?  Is Brandon Weeden really the answer?  Their current backup is Jason Campbell.  Given how far some of these QBs fell, it would have been wise to take one, as well as a backup for Richardson.  Their WRs strike fear into the hearts of no one with the likes of Greg Little, Josh Cooper, and Josh Gordon.  Some kind of skill position offensive player (WR, RB, or TE) would have been a better choice than one of these defensive players.

What To Make of the QBs
I think everyone, except those in the Bills' front office were shocked when Buffalo selected EJ Manuel with the 16th pick in the first round, and only QB taken in the first round.  Many believed it would be either Geno Smith (highest rated QB by many) or Ryan Nassib (solid QB who was coached in college by Buffalo's head coach).  Instead, they took a player with a cannon for an arm, but is wildly inconsistent and has been outperformed in his career by Mike Glennon and Landry Jones, two QBs taken after him.  He has an ideal football body and is very athletic, but I would not be too confident in this pick if I was a Bills fan.

Smith is going to a crazy situation in New York, where they have way too many quarterbacks.  Someone is going to have to go and early rumblings are, due to his contract and cap space, that Mark Sanchez will be the one to go.  While I don't consider Sanchez an elite QB, is Smith really going to step in and be that much better?  They did draft three offensive linemen, but they were in the third, fifth, and sixth round.  They lost their starting RB in Shonn Greene as well as their most reliable target in the passing game in Dustin Keller.  Santonio Holmes will be returning, but he's not getting any younger.  They finished sixth worst in the league in sacks allowed, and that's the last thing a rookie QB needs.  I think this situation in New York, even if Smith gets the starts, is bad news for this kid.

The other notables were Matt Barkley going to the Eagles, Mike Glennon going to the Bucs, Nassib going to the Giants, and Landry going to the Steelers.  Glennon, Nassib, and Landry all have certified starters in front of them (could make a case that Josh Freeman doesn't have the job totally secured in Tampa) so I'll focus on Barkley.  The fact that he went 98th overall is a joke.  He was projected last year to be behind Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck.  He was a possible top 10 pick, and certainly wasn't getting out of the first round.  While his production wasn't as good this year, he still passed for over 3,000 yards with a 36 to 15 touchdown to interception ratio.  The knock on him has been a lack of a big arm like Manuel, but in Chip Kelly's system, there's not a need for that.  Now he'll have play makers all around him (LeSean McCoy, Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and will have a realistic shot to start given Michael Vick's injury history and age.  I think Barkley could make a real impact, even in his rookie season, despite playing in a tough division.

Tyrann Mathieu
Forget the weed, forget getting kicked off the team, this dude can play some football.  Whether it's making a strip, laying the lumber, or returning a kick, he is a certified game changer and there's no arguing that.  Now he gets to go to Arizona and will be reunited with Patrick Peterson, whom he played college ball with at LSU.  He'll also have Larry Fitzgerald, one of the most professional guys in the league.  Similar to Ogletree, if Mathieu can stay clean off the field, he can be a beast on the field.  He now has a support system in place and joins a defense that finished 12th overall last year in a tough division.  They were also third in the league in takeaways, and that number should only increase with Mathieu on the field.  It will be interesting to see which LSU player Arizona selects to return kicks, but both are highly dangerous.  I thought this was an awesome pick for the Cardinals and could turn their defense into the best, yes the best, defense in the league.  If Carson Palmer can play like he did in Cincy, look out for the Cards to be in the playoffs this upcoming year. 

Manti Te'o
Yes, it's the obligatory Manti Te'o section.  There seem to be two sides when it comes to Te'o.  One side looks at the Alabama game and says that is proof he doesn't belong in the NFL.  'Bama had as close to a NFL offensive line as you can get in college, and he underperformed in that game.  No question there.  The other side, however, will contend that he shouldn't be judged simply based on that game, and will point out that he was the anchor in a defense that wasn't supposed to be good.  This side will also point out that Ray Lewis was not so good at getting off blocks, but once they got some big uglies up front, Ray was able to get to the QB and ball carriers with little resistance.  Then, he would let his skill take over.

While I don't think he will be Ray Lewis, I do tend to side with the latter opinion.  Yes his game against Alabama was terrible, but I bet you could look at anyone's draft tape and find at least one bad game.  Maybe two.  Heck, Geno Smith struggled the entire second half of the season.  People forget that prior to last year, the Notre Dame program was not projected to do well.  They were coming off a mediocre 8-5 season and started the year unranked.  The fact that they even reached the title game was amazing.  Keep in mind that this defense had to go up against Denard Robinson of Michigan, Landry Jones of Oklahoma, and Matt Barkley of USC.  Against those teams, the Irish allowed six, 13, and 13 points, respectively. 

I felt like after the cat fishing incident, everyone got on his case.  I don't even consider that an issue and wouldn't consider it a factor when evaluating him.  But then people began acting like he had never made a tackle before in his life.  This guy has a high football IQ, can certainly tackle, and has great leadership qualities.  I think San Diego is a nice fit for him because he is closer to his home of Hawaii and joins a defense that finished 9th overall last year.  I think he'll be under the microscope, especially his first year, but should turn out to be a solid pro.  Maybe not a Pro Bowler, but certainly a starter for a NFL team.

Chicago Bears
The Bears had a pretty solid draft.  I really liked their first two picks with offensive lineman Kyle Long and inside linebacker Jonathan Bostic out of Florida.  Position wise, they certainly fill two needs but it will be interesting to see how they fit with the Bears.  Long was part of the Oregon up-tempo style of play and will now have to adjust to a more traditional offense with Jay Cutler being anything but a running threat.  I certainly think he can do it considering Oregon's offense was so explosive, but it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to protecting a strictly pocket QB.  Bostic now has big shoes to fill as he comes in as a middle linebacker in Chicago.  With Urlacher out of town, Bostic might be expected to come in and perform right away, which is a bit unfair.  He is quicker and more athletic than Urlacher, especially at both of their ages, but certainly smaller.  He should be good in coverage and getting to the outside, but stuffing the middle of the line will be an interesting venture.

The one gripe that I have is their failure to address the offensive skill positions.  At WR, Brandon Marshall is a beast of course, but then who?  Alshon Jeffery?  Devin Hester?  They've both shown flashes, but I'm not sold on either.  They were able to snag one in the seventh round, but I feel like Cutler needs more weapons.  Although they acquired Martellus Bennett in the off season, I felt they could have taken a tight end as well.  Prior to his best season last year in New York, Bennett struggled to do well in the pros in Dallas.  Despite his production, he did have four games with only a single reception last year.  I think tight end will be a crucial position for the Bears as Cutler desperately missed the presence of a Greg Olsen this past year.  It'll be a tough go this year, especially with the Vikings and Packers having sensational drafts, but the Bears have put themselves in a position to contend. 

Super Bowl Winner...As Of Now:  49ers
The draft didn't change my choice, but rather enforced it.  The 49ers lost two key players in the off season in safety Dashon Goldson and tight end Delanie Walker but immediately addressed these losses in the draft by selecting safety Eric Reid 18th overall and tight end Vance McDonald 55th overall.  Don't know much about McDonald, and he probably won't be expected to do much right away with Vernon Davis also on the roster, but Reid is a definite starter this year.  He will join arguably the best defense in the league on a team that now has a solidified quarterback and offensive weapons.  I also really, really liked the Marcus Lattimore pick in the fourth round.  This is a guy that has top five talent, but has injury concerns.  With Frank Gore and LaMichael James already in the backfield, Lattimore won't be required to carry the load like he did at South Carolina.  The thought of a healthy Lattimore getting about seven or eight carries a game is scary, considering he can go for six anytime.  Kaepernick will be at the helm for a full year in 2013 and, even though the division is daunting, this team should be on everyone's short list for Super Bowl favorite.

Matty O.


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