Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Boston Bruins
Top Two Lines
Of the four teams left in the playoffs, these two teams have the best top two forward lines. Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, Sidney Crosby, James Neal, Evgeni Malkin, and Jarome Iginla for the Pittsburgh Penguins; Milan Lucic, David Krejci, Nathan Horton, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and Jaromir Jagr (possibly Tyler Seguin if he steps his game up) for the Boston Bruins. Yeah, stacked. Crosby and Dupuis are tied for the league lead in goals for this postseason. The line of Horton, Krejci, and Lucic are ranked one, two, and three respectively for plus/minus rating. All twelve of these players produce big time numbers in big time games.
While there's always a possibility that someone from the third or fourth line will step up, I believe that this series will be decided between these players. The Bruins saw first hand what happens when top lines don't step up when they rolled past the New York Rangers as the Rick Nash-Derek Stepan-Ryan Callahan line was held relatively in check. A let down from any of these lines, giving their opponents the advantage, could be costly in this series.
Bruins' Young Defense
It's actually very surprising the Bruins made it through the Rangers series so quickly with the inexperience on defense. Certainly having Zdeno Chara back there helps, but during their epic Game 7 comeback against Toronto in the first round, they lost their other experienced defenseman Dennis Seidenberg to injury. So now they were stuck with Dougie Hamilton (19 years old), Torey Krug (22), and Matt Bartkowski (24). Although Hamilton had played nearly every game in the regular season for the Bruins, Krug and Bartkowski had a combined 23 appearances for the Bruins over the past three years. They performed admirably against the Rangers, but now face much stiffer competition.
Seidenberg was able to play in the final game of the Rangers series and given the time off between that series and the upcoming Pittsburgh one, he should be at full health. That's good news for Bruins fans as Chara and Seidenberg should be able to provide decent resistance against the Penguins' big guns. That being said, it is likely that one of these young defensemen will be out there against Crosby or Malkin at some point so it will be interesting to see how they perform. They will need to keep their growing pains to a minimum if the Bruins are to win this series.
Dark Horse Difference Maker: Brandon Sutter
Sitting behind the top two lines, Sutter centers the Penguins third line and gets some power play time as well. Coming over from Carolina as part of the Jordan Staal trade, Sutter put up decent numbers in the lockout shortened season (11 goals, 8 assists), but was inconsistent. While he only has two points this post season, he certainly has the skill to get more. The Penguins power play is deadly so he should have his chance to make a difference in this series. Due to the matchups, it might be Sutter, and not the top lines, that takes advantage of the youth the Bruins have on defense.
Prediction: Penguins in five
A bit of a bold prediction here picking them in only five games, but the Penguins just don't seem to have a significant glaring weakness. The Bruins were pushed by a young Toronto team in the first round and, all things considered, probably should have lost that Game 7. Then they faced a Rangers team that was really a one man show in Henrik Lundqvist, and dispatched them in five.
The Pens beat an offensively gifted Islanders team in the first round in six, and it could be argued that they may have beat them sooner had Tomas Vokoun been in net in the first four games of that series. Then they faced a talented Senators team that was finally healthy and, by the end of the series, had Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson, and Jason Spezza all playing again. Despite this, they crushed the Sens, beating them in five games including a 7-3 Game 4 in Ottawa, and a 6-2 Game 5 to close it out.
I think the offensive firepower of the Penguins prevails, though I think every game will be close. The Bruins will take one at home, but the Pens should be able to win in five, six at most.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Goalies
Contrary to the Eastern Conference Final, I believe that this series will be dictated by defense rather than offense, particularly the play of the two net minders. For the Kings, Jonathan Quick continues to be a brick wall between the pipes. Coming off a tremendous playoffs and Stanley Cup win from last year, he is arguably playing even better this year. He has a better save percentage than last year (.948) and already has as many shut outs as he did during last year's Stanley Cup run (3). He's done all this under pressure as only two of the Kings' eight wins have come by more than one goal. He's already made some spectacular saves and has stonewalled the likes of David Backes, Joe Pavelski, and Logan Couture. Add in All-Star defenseman Drew Doughty and the Hawks will find it very difficult to score goals this series.
On the other side is Corey Crawford for the Hawks. Chastised for his less than stellar play during last year's playoffs, he has certainly silenced many critics, me included, with his play during the Hawks' run this year. While his numbers aren't as good as Quick's, he has gotten the job done and came up with some huge saves in the series with Detroit, and was a significant reason why the Hawks were able to come back from 3-1. He's moving much better in net this year and isn't prone to those "soft" goals that he gave up previously in his career. Despite his progress, this is still the first year that he has made it past the first round. This is a huge series for Crawford from a perception standpoint. It's you against one of the best goalies in the league. Time to step up and prove you're worthy of fan's trust and unworthy of the critics' hate.
Physical Play
This is where I think the Hawks could be in trouble. In case you missed the Kings' series with either the St. Louis Blues or the San Jose Sharks, let me just tell you that they like to hit. A lot. Their hit totals from the past series with the Sharks were 39, 38, 34, 53, 51, 41, and 39. Ironically, their lowest hit total also came from the only game that went to overtime (Game 3). By comparison, the Red Wings only topped 30 hits twice in the Hawks entire seven game series. I'm not saying the Hawks and Wings don't have tough guys on their teams, but both teams are more finesse than physical in their approach to the game. Who wouldn't be with guys like Pavel Datsyuk, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane?
It will certainly be a point of emphasis to target and hit the Hawks' star players. Their response to the Kings' physical play will be a key factor in the outcome of this series. The Kings actually caught a break due to scheduling as they have one more day of rest than the Hawks do because their seven game series with the Sharks finished on Tuesday. They certainly needed it after the first two rounds, but they should be refreshed and ready to go against the Hawks in Game 1. The Hawks will need to have their head on a swivel, lest they have another Hossa-Raffi Torres situation.
Dark Horse Difference Maker: Slava Voynov
Voynov tends to get overlooked as a defenseman because everyone thinks of Doughty immediately when they think about the Kings' defense. Heck, Voynov isn't even on the top pairing with Doughty, as that spot is occupied by Rob Scuderi. When he is out there, though, he is a difference maker. He already has seven points in 13 playoff games, which is tremendous for a second pair defenseman as only one of those points came on the power play. The more important stat for this series, however, will be his plus/minus. He will most likely be matched up against the Kane and Sharp line, and will probably see some of Toews and Hossa at some point. It will be up to Voynov to help out Quick when Doughty is not on the ice. If he can neutralize one of those lines, then the Kings will be in great shape.
Prediction: Kings in six
Uh-oh, I can already predict Hawks' fans anger as they just read that statement. When it comes right down to it, I'm picking the Kings because they actually remind me of the Red Wings (skill wise, not style of play) except a bit better in all areas, and they are unbeatable at home this post season. Literally. They haven't lost at Staples Center yet. If they take one in Chicago, which Detroit was able to do, and win all their home games, then that would equal a win in six. That's the minor point. The major point is that they are a better version of a Red Wings team that had the Hawks on the brink and pushed them to seven games.
As I mentioned before, Quick is a beast and is definitely an improvement over Jimmy Howard. Doughty is a better version of Niklas Kronwall. The Zetterberg-Datsyuk center combo might be better than the Kings' Anze Kopitar-Mike Richards center combo, but the Kings have stud wingers in Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, and Justin Williams that Detroit didn't have. Their depth at defense is better with Voynov and potential other Dark Horse Difference Maker, Jake Muzzin. I think it is this defense that wins out as the Kings' offense scores just enough to win four games. Quick will be the MVP of this series as he leads the Kings back to the Finals for a title defense.
Matty O
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