The Matty O Fantasy Breakdown series is back, 2013 edition. Like last year, I'll go through each division, team by team, and let you know who I think are the busts, sleepers, studs, and overall assessment of the team fantasy wise. Again, no set dates, but every team should be analyzed by the time your draft rolls around (first regular season game is Thursday, September 5th). Order will be NFC West, AFC West, NFC North, AFC North, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East.
St. Louis Rams
Studs: None
Unfortunately, the Rams lost the only stud they had last year in running back Steven Jackson. Kicker Greg Zuerlein probably could have wound up on this list if he had kept up his ridiculous numbers from the start of the year. He posted 13 points in Week 1, 12 in Week 2, 18 in Week 4, and 11 in Week 7. After Week 7, however, he never got to double digits again and put up four one point games. He certainly has a boot, but his accuracy is in question.
Bust: None
At least getting rid of your only stud leaves the bust category empty. The only Ram that could even be considered for this category would be Tavon Austin, but I actually think he's going to do pretty well.
Sleeper: Jared Cook, TE
Cook has the potential to be one of the biggest sleepers in fantasy this year. With limited "sure things" at the tight end position this year, Cook offers tremendous upside for the Rams. The fact that he is currently the 11th rated tight end and projected at being selected 115th overall on ESPN, means you should be able to get him late instead of using an early pick on the likes of Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. Cook should help quarterback Sam Bradford out in the short passing game, now that Jackson is gone. His athleticism is the most attractive aspect here, as he really never did anything that eye popping in Tennessee. Still, Bradford is a better QB than the likes of Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker, and having speedy wideouts Austin and Chris Givens should help open up the middle for Cook to roam free.
Bottom Line:
The Rams may have the most potential of any team, but will be hard pressed to prove it. Austin, Cook, and Bradford all have a chance to do well, if they take advantage of it. Even though Jackson is gone, it does open up the door for either Isaiah Pead or Daryl Richardson to step up. The addition of Jake Long should help the offense as a whole, so the upside is there. The downside is that their best back is gone, they have three of the best defenses in the league in their division, and none of these players have proven capable of putting up monster seasons in the NFL. Based on where all these players are projected, however, St. Louis might be the team to look at if you're looking for value.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense and Special Teams
Lynch, aka Beast Mode, has arisen to be projected as the third overall pick in fantasy drafts this year. He played all 16 games last year (the only time he's ever done that), ran for 1,590 yards with 12 total TDs, and has no real competition for his starting job, which is a rarity for backs entering 2013. He is a workhorse back that has the potential to break one on any play. Unlike other backs like Matt Forte, CJ Spiller, and Darren Sproles, Lynch is big enough that he stays in the game for goal line carries, helping him to average nearly 20 carries per game last year. You won't get the same kind of receiving production as you will from those backs, so his value certainly decreases in PPR leagues, put he'll still post solid numbers and should be taken at least in the top 5, probably the top 3.
Put as one of my sleepers last year, the Seahawks defense and special teams (D/ST) unit went ballistic posting eight double digit games, including a 40 pointer against the Cardinals in Week 14. Their secondary is an absolute nightmare for teams to face, led by outspoken cornerback Richard Sherman. They were able to keep all their key defensive players from last year, and the three teams they recorded zero points against last year (Patriots, Lions, Bears) are not on their schedule this year. The offenses in their division have improved, but I believe a great defense trumps a great offense every time. While I don't advise reaching for defenses (as evidenced in my Mock Draft article), this should be one of the first ones off the board.
Bust: Sidney Rice, WR
This is more of a warning than a true bust pick, because I do think he will put up okay numbers this year. Still, he has recently gained a lot of hype now that Percy Harvin will be out for nearly the entire season, and will probably move up in the projections once your draft hits. This is a player that has struggled with injuries throughout his career, and was one of the reasons why Minnesota was so willing to part with him. The Seahawks, as evidenced by Lynch's nearly 20 carries per game number, do not like to throw the ball. Whether it's quarterback Russell Wilson's limited arm, their lack of depth at WR, or Lynch's running ability, passing is just not a big part of their offense. This was evidenced last year when Rice was healthy and Harvin was not on the Seahawks. Rice only had five double digit games, never topped 100 yards, and never caught more than six passes. Maybe they open it up this year now that Wilson is in his second year, but anyone expecting Rice to put up the numbers he did in 2009 with the Vikings will be disappointed.
Sleeper: None
Kind of a cop out here I know, but I look at their roster and I think everyone will either be a bust or perform pretty much where they are projected. Wilson would be a popular sleeper for this team, but I think he's more prone to a bad year than an extremely productive one. Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin, their other receivers, will be limited by the lack of pass attempts and Rice's presence. I doubt Zach Miller starts playing up to his Oakland Raider days, and the other RBs are limited by Lynch's Beast Mode ability.
Bottom Line:
The Seahawks, similar to teams like the Vikings, Bears, and Browns (just to name a few off the top of my head), will be very fantasy top heavy this year. You'll get a lot of production from one or two players or units, but it's really a crap shoot to predict who will pick up the rest of the points. The key here is to feel safe with Lynch and the D/ST, be wary of Rice hype, and don't expect a surprising Doug Martin-esque breakthrough by anyone on this team.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
Yes, he did have a bad 2012, but any receiver with the likes of John Skelton and Kevin Kolb is going to have suppressed numbers. Fitzgerald now gets Carson Palmer behind center. While Palmer is no Aaron Rodgers, he is certainly an upgrade over Kolb and Skelton and should be able to get the ball to Fitzgerald with more regularity. He is currently the 11th rated receiver, ahead of the likes of Andre Johnson and Randall Cobb; both of whom I think will have worse seasons than Fitzgerald. He is a talented enough player that even a slight upgrade at the QB position should bring him back into fantasy relevance.
Bust: Andre Roberts, WR
Roberts was a popular pick up last year after posting three double digit games in the first seven weeks of the season, including a 23 pointer in Week 4 against Miami. And rightfully so. Believe it or not, he actually finished ahead of Fitzgerald in total fantasy points last year (100 to 99). So why is he a bust? A couple reasons. First off, apart from those three games, he did very little. He posted one more double digit game, but also tallied two zeroes and two ones. I also think that Michael Floyd will develop into the Cards number two option after Fitz, while Roberts drops to the third slot. Additionally, while I mentioned that Fitz will have a better year, that does not mean the receiving corps as a whole will. Yes, Palmer is in town, but I expect him to feed the ball to Fitz as much as possible leaving little opportunities for both Roberts and Floyd. He's also currently higher than Rueben Randle, Ryan Broyles, and Vincent Brown who should all have better seasons than Roberts.
Sleeper: Rashard Mendenhall, RB
Maybe a little U of I bias here, but someone has to run the ball for this team. Beanie Wells is finally gone, and the oft injured Ryan Williams is Mendenhall's only real competition. Mendenhall is not exactly a picture of health himself coming off a disappointing season where he tried to come back from an ACL injury, but couldn't put it together. Now he gets a fresh start with a new team, albeit behind a questionable offensive line. I don't think he gets his production based on skill, but rather the sheer volume of carries he will get. As long as he stays healthy, I expect him to see the majority of carries in this offense and give Williams high odds to get injured again. Mendenhall certainly shouldn't be your drafted number one or two RB, but having him as a FLEX or waiting to see if he develops into a RB2 is an enticing scenario.
Bottom Line:
Larry, Larry, Larry. He's really the only sure thing on this squad, as the Cards have limited upside as an organization as a whole. A running back will emerge from the pack, but as previously mentioned, the ceiling is probably only a RB2 and even that is an ambitious prediction. Grab Fitz, ignore the rest, unless you're stuck deciding between Palmer and Tim Tebow.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Frank Gore, RB, Colin Kaepernick, QB, D/ST
Gore moves from the bust category last year to the stud category this year, mainly because he put to rest the injury questions that had surrounded him throughout his career. He played all 16 games, including every playoff game and the Super Bowl. Along the way, he racked up over 1200 yards and nine total TDs in the regular season. Another encouraging sign was that once Kaep took over at QB, he had single digits only twice; once against the Bears and once against the Seahawks. Given how strong those defenses were, I'll give him a pass. LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are certainly lurking to take carries, but I've become a Gore believer now. He's a decent RB1, solid RB2.
Kaep took the league by storm following Week 10 after Alex Smith suffered an injury. There was speculation once Smith was healthy of whether he would go back to the veteran, or stick with Kaep. Personally, I thought he should go back to Smith and still contend they might have made the Super Bowl with Smith at the helm. But that's not the point. The point is Kaep developed into a legitimate fantasy QB, with his passing and particularly running skills. He ran for 415 yards and 5 TDs last year while leading the 49ers to the second overall seed in the NFC and a division title. His running ability not only makes him a threat to put up big fantasy numbers, but also helps to cover for his bad passing games. In Week 13 in St. Louis, he threw for 208 yards, zero TDs, and a fumble lost. Terrible fantasy day for a QB right? Well, thanks to his 84 yards rushing he still got double digit fantasy points. With a full year to work with, expect Kaep to put up big numbers as long as he's healthy.
What more can be said about this D/ST unit? They ranked in the top 4 last year in points against, rushing yards against, passing yards against, and points against. They finished 9th in takeaways last year (pretty low for a group this talented) and still put up seven double digit point games last year. They lost Dashon Goldson to the Bucs in free agency, but drafted safety Eric Reid in the first round and defensive end Tank Carradine in the second of this year's draft. While Carradine will probably see limited time and be only used to sub out tired linemen, I think Reid will have a solid rookie year and contribute to this defense's reputation. Expect a strong year from this group as they should be one of the top three defenses off the board. Also, having LaMichael James as a returner isn't bad either.
Bust: None
Similar to my reasoning in the Seahawks' sleeper section, I think everyone on the 49ers either plays to their draft position or is in line for a sleeper season, not a bust season. Gore was here last year, but that was due to me worrying about him holding up over the long haul. Since he did, who else would you put here? The studs I've covered, Vernon Davis is where he needs to be if not lower than he should be, their receivers are relatively low so I don't really see a bust here. Injuries could always make anyone a bust, but if the 49ers stay healthy, I don't see anyone on this team regressing by a large margin based on their play alone.
Sleeper: Anquan Boldin, WR
A few candidates to choose from here, but Boldin becomes an obvious one knowing that Michael Crabtree is sidelined. Kaep clearly likes to use his number one option often as shown by Crabtree's breakout in the second half of the season, especially in PPR leagues. If Boldin can pick up even some of that production, then he'll put up solid numbers. Last year, Boldin had four double digit games in standard leagues, and a few more in PPR leagues while playing second fiddle to Torrey Smith, and sometimes third fiddle to either Ray Rice or Dennis Pitta. Now he gets to be the number one receiver for an offense that should put plenty of pressure on defenses. Boldin's strong route running will benefit Kaep in real life and you in your fantasy league. He's a pretty good WR2 and a solid FLEX.
Bottom Line:
This is the most talented team in this division, both in real life and fantasy wise. I think any 49er is safe, and some (Boldin, LaMichael James, Quinton Patton) have great upside as well. Their defense will be strong once again, translating into what I believe will be the number one ranked fantasy defense at the end of the year. From an offensive side, their schedule looks fairly soft as the only strong defenses they face outside their division are Houston and Tampa Bay (potentially). They also get some notoriously soft defenses in New Orleans, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indy, and Carolina. Look for 49ers in your draft as they should be a good addition to any fantasy team.
Again, as I mentioned last year, these breakdowns are meant to be more of a guide than strict rules to adhere to. For instance, last year my bust for the 49ers was Gore and my sleeper was Randy Moss. Look how accurate that was. This should really be meant to either confirm or counter assumptions about certain players you are considering drafting. The value of players will also change based on your draft type. I am basing these breakdowns around standard leagues, but PPR ones should weight WRs and pass catching backs higher, while two QB ones obviously should weight the QBs higher. Hopefully these help you out in winning your league, and look for the AFC West breakdown in the next few days.
Matty O
Past Fantasy Seasons
2012 - Second to last (Standard), First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs (PPR)
2011 - First Place Regular Season, Second Place Playoffs
2010 - Sixth Place Regular Season
2009 - Third Place Regular Season and Playoffs
2008 - First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Sunday, July 21, 2013
My Experience At Top Golf
Normally this blog is for analyzing highly publicized topics in the world of sports, but I'd figure I would shed some light on a really cool facility that I visited over the weekend. It's this place called Top Golf located in Wood Dale, IL and gets a 5/5 in my book. I'll go through some of the features of the place and what exactly it's all about so hopefully you will check it out as well. This post probably belongs on Yelp or something like that, but I'll give the readers of my blog the inside scoop.
For starters, it seems that people in the Chicago area and surrounding areas lucked out with this place. They currently only have nine locations in the world; three of them are in England, one in Alexandria, Virginia, four in Texas, and luckily Wood Dale, IL of all places (they have four locations coming soon). I'll start off with just a general description of the place. The main attraction is the driving range they have. The twist they have on the traditional driving range, however, are these large, circular targets that look like dartboards in the ground. Similar to dart boards, they are split into sections worth varying amounts of points depending on the game you are playing (regardless of the game, the closest area to the pin is worth the most points). The object is to aim for whatever target(s) the game calls for, racking up points as you go.
The Top Golf facility in Wood Dale has three different levels to shoot from with your area being called a bay. Each bay has a table, comfortable chairs, the electronic score monitor, and some artificial turf with a tee for you to hit from. I'm not exactly sure how many bays were on each level, but I'd say about 20-25. They are stacked on top of each other so the first and second levels are covered with the third floor being open and uncovered with more of a patio feel (great for smokers, terrible when it rains).
They also have bags sets on the first and second floors as well as a mini golf course, although I didn't play on that. There is a bar on the second and third floor, as well as a large food menu with plenty of great food. The service is also really great and they will bring the drinks and food to your bay so you don't have to leave. You can elect to bring your own clubs if you have them or you can rent them for free at the front desk. I rented mine and, for being generic Top Golf clubs, they actually hit pretty good. There was also a private reception room on the first floor and an Executive Suite on the second. We actually got placed in the Exec Suite for our first couple games until we had to move because someone had reserved it.
The Exec Suite had four bays, numerous couches, a few flat screens, foosball, its own bar, and was in its own separate room. The Suite can be rented out to host parties, receptions, and the like. Unlike regular driving ranges, Top Golf is built to operate in the winter as well. Obviously the third floor would probably not be used, but they have tarps/dividers to keep out the cold from the bays and heaters that run above each bay. It's a really good idea and at least gives golfers somewhere to go in the winter to keep that swing in tact.
Now, for the technology. The way this works is that you purchase a card at the front desk when you come in. They have different card options available but me and the three other people I was with all got the $35 lifetime card which gave you $45 in game credits. Once those $45 are up, then it essentially acts like a credit card where you purchase games and put them on your card (during peak hours each game is $7, but you can get bulk specials ex: $50 for $65 of in game credits). You just insert your card into the ball machines they have, select the number of games, then watch them fill up your basket. You get 20 balls per game, which will last you a while if you're playing with other people. Now, here's where it gets techie.
Each ball has a chip inside it that gets registered to you when it comes out of the ball machine. Each bay has a ball feeder that you have to put your ball through to have it "scanned." Once that happens, your name and the ball number shows up on the electronic monitor located at your bay. Since each ball is registered to a specific person, the order that you go in doesn't really matter. The person that hooked us up, Elizabeth, recommended each of us shooting five at a time, then rotating out until all 20 of our balls were hit. If your ball lands on one of the targets, then it will show you on the screen how far it went, where it hit, and how many points you gained or lost. Any ball that misses landing on the target is not counted. Also, the ball is scored based on where it stops. So, you might hit the ball short of the target, but if it rolls on then you will still get the points (very useful for Top Chip and Top Pressure).
This place is also great for people who don't golf a lot. Just from watching people's shots, I'd say about 60-70% of the people there were not seasoned golfers. There were balls being shot everywhere with plenty of swings and misses. The great part about this place is that there's no real pressure like you might feel on a real golf course. It is a very relaxed environment, plenty of conversation, and great music. There were even some people on the third floor that looked like they just came to hang out, drink some beers, and enjoy the sun. The atmosphere is great and very upbeat.
As I mentioned earlier, the staff is great but it is worth repeating. This was all of our first time being at this place and personally, I didn't know what to expect. They were very helpful from the first staff member I talked to in explaining the bays, where things were at, and how the cards worked. Everyone was very friendly and they all seemed genuine about making your personal experience the best possible one. When we were moved from the Exec Suite to the third floor, Elizabeth apologized even though we didn't really care, took all of our cards and gave us two free games ($14 value). We were given another free game at the end, mostly based on our stubbornness. It was pouring down rain, and everyone else went to the second floor, but we really wanted to finish our game. Soaking wet we went to check out at the front and were comped another game. Baller.
I also just mentioned briefly that it would be a cool place to host an event (Theta Chi Alumni get together?) and their event coordinator came 5 minutes later, gave me her card, and a booklet of information. I told her I was just interested in finding out pricing and what they offered, but the fact that she took the time to tell me about it was pretty cool.
I will warn you ahead of time that word has gotten around, so there was a 45 minute wait when we got there. We left at around 8 or 9 and the person working the front desk said they were pretty much booked for the rest of the night (they were open until 2am). So, make sure you get there early if you want to play. As of now, you can't reserve a bay ahead of time, although the staff said they were working on setting up a system where that might be possible. Even still, just chill for 45 minutes at the bar, have a couple drinks, then wait for the text telling you your bay is ready. Also, the drink prices were very reasonable so you'll have a chance to get nice and toasty before you try and smash those golf balls.
This was one of the coolest sport places I've been to. Very innovative and awesome environment. For $35 you get plenty of games to last you an afternoon, free club rentals, great service, and just a good old time. I definitely recommend going there if you've played 100 rounds of golf or no rounds of golf. I hope to go back sometime later this summer and you should come along. Here's the link to the Chicago Top Golf website where you'll find a full explanation of all the games they have, videos, and more pics.
Matty O
For starters, it seems that people in the Chicago area and surrounding areas lucked out with this place. They currently only have nine locations in the world; three of them are in England, one in Alexandria, Virginia, four in Texas, and luckily Wood Dale, IL of all places (they have four locations coming soon). I'll start off with just a general description of the place. The main attraction is the driving range they have. The twist they have on the traditional driving range, however, are these large, circular targets that look like dartboards in the ground. Similar to dart boards, they are split into sections worth varying amounts of points depending on the game you are playing (regardless of the game, the closest area to the pin is worth the most points). The object is to aim for whatever target(s) the game calls for, racking up points as you go.
The Top Golf facility in Wood Dale has three different levels to shoot from with your area being called a bay. Each bay has a table, comfortable chairs, the electronic score monitor, and some artificial turf with a tee for you to hit from. I'm not exactly sure how many bays were on each level, but I'd say about 20-25. They are stacked on top of each other so the first and second levels are covered with the third floor being open and uncovered with more of a patio feel (great for smokers, terrible when it rains).
They also have bags sets on the first and second floors as well as a mini golf course, although I didn't play on that. There is a bar on the second and third floor, as well as a large food menu with plenty of great food. The service is also really great and they will bring the drinks and food to your bay so you don't have to leave. You can elect to bring your own clubs if you have them or you can rent them for free at the front desk. I rented mine and, for being generic Top Golf clubs, they actually hit pretty good. There was also a private reception room on the first floor and an Executive Suite on the second. We actually got placed in the Exec Suite for our first couple games until we had to move because someone had reserved it.
The Exec Suite had four bays, numerous couches, a few flat screens, foosball, its own bar, and was in its own separate room. The Suite can be rented out to host parties, receptions, and the like. Unlike regular driving ranges, Top Golf is built to operate in the winter as well. Obviously the third floor would probably not be used, but they have tarps/dividers to keep out the cold from the bays and heaters that run above each bay. It's a really good idea and at least gives golfers somewhere to go in the winter to keep that swing in tact.
Now, for the technology. The way this works is that you purchase a card at the front desk when you come in. They have different card options available but me and the three other people I was with all got the $35 lifetime card which gave you $45 in game credits. Once those $45 are up, then it essentially acts like a credit card where you purchase games and put them on your card (during peak hours each game is $7, but you can get bulk specials ex: $50 for $65 of in game credits). You just insert your card into the ball machines they have, select the number of games, then watch them fill up your basket. You get 20 balls per game, which will last you a while if you're playing with other people. Now, here's where it gets techie.
Each ball has a chip inside it that gets registered to you when it comes out of the ball machine. Each bay has a ball feeder that you have to put your ball through to have it "scanned." Once that happens, your name and the ball number shows up on the electronic monitor located at your bay. Since each ball is registered to a specific person, the order that you go in doesn't really matter. The person that hooked us up, Elizabeth, recommended each of us shooting five at a time, then rotating out until all 20 of our balls were hit. If your ball lands on one of the targets, then it will show you on the screen how far it went, where it hit, and how many points you gained or lost. Any ball that misses landing on the target is not counted. Also, the ball is scored based on where it stops. So, you might hit the ball short of the target, but if it rolls on then you will still get the points (very useful for Top Chip and Top Pressure).
This place is also great for people who don't golf a lot. Just from watching people's shots, I'd say about 60-70% of the people there were not seasoned golfers. There were balls being shot everywhere with plenty of swings and misses. The great part about this place is that there's no real pressure like you might feel on a real golf course. It is a very relaxed environment, plenty of conversation, and great music. There were even some people on the third floor that looked like they just came to hang out, drink some beers, and enjoy the sun. The atmosphere is great and very upbeat.
As I mentioned earlier, the staff is great but it is worth repeating. This was all of our first time being at this place and personally, I didn't know what to expect. They were very helpful from the first staff member I talked to in explaining the bays, where things were at, and how the cards worked. Everyone was very friendly and they all seemed genuine about making your personal experience the best possible one. When we were moved from the Exec Suite to the third floor, Elizabeth apologized even though we didn't really care, took all of our cards and gave us two free games ($14 value). We were given another free game at the end, mostly based on our stubbornness. It was pouring down rain, and everyone else went to the second floor, but we really wanted to finish our game. Soaking wet we went to check out at the front and were comped another game. Baller.
I also just mentioned briefly that it would be a cool place to host an event (Theta Chi Alumni get together?) and their event coordinator came 5 minutes later, gave me her card, and a booklet of information. I told her I was just interested in finding out pricing and what they offered, but the fact that she took the time to tell me about it was pretty cool.
I will warn you ahead of time that word has gotten around, so there was a 45 minute wait when we got there. We left at around 8 or 9 and the person working the front desk said they were pretty much booked for the rest of the night (they were open until 2am). So, make sure you get there early if you want to play. As of now, you can't reserve a bay ahead of time, although the staff said they were working on setting up a system where that might be possible. Even still, just chill for 45 minutes at the bar, have a couple drinks, then wait for the text telling you your bay is ready. Also, the drink prices were very reasonable so you'll have a chance to get nice and toasty before you try and smash those golf balls.
This was one of the coolest sport places I've been to. Very innovative and awesome environment. For $35 you get plenty of games to last you an afternoon, free club rentals, great service, and just a good old time. I definitely recommend going there if you've played 100 rounds of golf or no rounds of golf. I hope to go back sometime later this summer and you should come along. Here's the link to the Chicago Top Golf website where you'll find a full explanation of all the games they have, videos, and more pics.
Matty O
Saturday, July 20, 2013
The Way Too Early, In-Depth, Fantasy Football Mock Draft
The NFL, and more importantly fantasy football season, is creeping up again. Since Matthew Berry does like 20 different mock drafts, I decided to post one as well and analyze it. Unlike Matthew Berry, I do not have a team of experts at hand to participate, so random people on ESPN will have to do. I'll post the round by round picks, break the rounds down, then give my final thoughts at the end. Let us begin of course, with Adrian Peterson... (I am Beans and Mash, was watching Get Him To The Greek at the time)
Round: 1
(1) Team moyer - Adrian Peterson RB
(2) GridIron Great - Arian Foster RB
** (3) Beans And Mash - Marshawn Lynch RB
(4) GridIron Dogz - Doug Martin RB
(5) Team Conway - Ray Rice RB
(6) Hernandez end Not so tight - Jamaal Charles RB
(7) Bow To Me - Tom Brady QB
(8) Team awesomeness - Aaron Rodgers QB
(9) Team Hubbard - C.J. Spiller RB
(10) Team phyfe - Alfred Morris RB
Safest Pick: Adrian Peterson, RB
Just putting this here so you remember to draft him first overall. Don't try and get cute with Foster or an up and comer like Doug Martin. Stick with the man who almost broke the single season rushing record coming off a torn ACL.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Tom Brady, QB
Lots of people have Brady ranked lower this year and for good reason. He's another year older, doesn't have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and probably Rob Gronkowski at least for the start of the season. Having said that, it is Tom Brady and he helped Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk become household fantasy names. Still, with the number 7 overall pick? Not smart Team Bow to Me. Especially taking him ahead of Aaron Rodgers. While I would normally back out of a draft room after a pick like this, I decided to wait and see, and indeed Bow To Me picked like normal the rest of the way. I guess just keep in mind that some players in your league will be all about a player and pick him way ahead of where he's projected. It just happens. With so many questions at RB this year though, taking him ahead of Spiller, Morris, and Trent Richardson was a head scratcher.
My Pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB
This was pretty much who I expected to get, and who you should expect to get if you have the number three slot in your draft. 90% of drafts this year will have AP go one and Foster go two. Some people have been high on Martin and Charles due to their quickness and speed, but Lynch has a great offense, an outstanding defense to give the Seahawks a cushion so they can run the ball late in the game, and is simply a beast. With no threat to his position from a backup and an established QB, Lynch is about as safe as AP.
Round: 2
(11) Team phyfe - Peyton Manning QB
(12) Team Hubbard - Drew Brees QB
(13) Team awesomeness - LeSean McCoy RB
(14) Bow To Me - Calvin Johnson WR
(15) Hernandez end Not so tight - Trent Richardson RB
(16) Team Conway - Matt Forte RB
(17) GridIron Dogz - A.J. Green WR
** (18) Beans And Mash - Steven Jackson RB
(19) GridIron Great - Stevan Ridley RB
(20) Team moyer - Brandon Marshall WR
Safest Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR
Matthew Stafford's number one target should continue to post phenomenal numbers this year. Due to this league's odd infatuation with quarterbacks, he dropped to 14 to last round's Riskiest Pick winner, Bow To Me. Amazingly, even though he finished first among WRs in fantasy points and nearly got 2,000 yards, he only scored 5 times. 5! Think that happens again? I don't think so. The yards will be hard to repeat, but his TD total should be higher next year. If he manages to get high marks in both, Johnson could prove to be worth a first round pick this year; a rarity for WRs.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Peyton Manning, QB
Similar to the Brady pick, it's not so much that Manning is bad, but more so where he was picked. I don't consider Manning better than Brees in fantasy, and McCoy, Richardson, and Megatron's value is all probably better than Manning's. Manning is also 37 so it's not like he's the youngest dude out there. I have the same concern about him as last year being that one hit in the right spot and he could be done for the season given his neck problems. The addition of Wes Welker makes this offense a QBs dream with Thomas and Decker, but taking him at 11 is a bit too high for me.
My Pick: Steven Jackson, RB
I was praying that Jackson would fall to me, especially after Forte was taken. Getting the 1-2 punch of Lynch and Jackson at running back really set me up well for the rest of the draft. As I mentioned earlier, RB is shallow this year so if you can find two quality backs in the first two rounds, I advise you do. Skeptics will point out his low yardage totals from last year, but he was with the Rams. Now, he goes to an explosive Falcons offense that can both a) open up the line of scrimmage with the threat of the passing game and b) score early and often so Jackson can rumble and ring up touches at the end of the game. He never really had either with the Rams, so I think this is a great opportunity for Jackson.
Round: 3
(21) Team moyer - Julio Jones WR
(22) GridIron Great - Matt Ryan QB
** (23) Beans And Mash - Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(24) GridIron Dogz - Cam Newton QB
(25) Team Conway - Frank Gore RB
(26) Hernandez end Not so tight - Dez Bryant WR
(27) Bow To Me - Darren Sproles RB
(28) Team awesomeness - Demaryius Thomas WR
(29) Team Hubbard - Percy Harvin WR
(30) Team phyfe - Reggie Bush RB
Safest Pick: Dez Bryant, WR
Some might not call this a safe pick because they're still not believers, but you better start believing. Yes I am a Cowboys fan so there may be a bit of bias here, but if you don't want him then I gladly will, especially at pick number 26. After starting out the year slow, giving more critics the chance to get on his case, he exploded and went for double digit points in Weeks 10-16. This included back to back to back 20 point games and a 34 point monster against New Orleans in Week 16, many people's fantasy championship week. By the way, Calvin only had back to back 20 point games and peaked out at 24 points as his season high. I think Dez has the chance to be the best WR in terms of fantasy this year and is projected to go in the second round! Snag him if you can.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Frank Gore, RB
I was going to go with Matt Ryan, but I figured I should change up the pace of this category from just quarterbacks (although Ryan was a dumb pick at 22). Yes, he has stayed healthy the past two years, but I think those injury concerns will eventually catch up to him. He's reached age 30, which is usually when RBs start to go downhill. It has certainly helped that he has a stellar offensive line, and Kaepernick's athleticism has helped San Fran's RBs in general because the defense has to respect Kaepernick, leaving gaps for the runners. On top of injury concerns, however, is the fact that I think Kendall Hunter, and especially LaMichael James, gets more touches this year. I could be wrong here, but I think Gore regresses this year.
My Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
Did I mention how much I love taking RBs early this year? I'll be honest, I was very tempted to take either Newton or Bryant in this spot, since MJD would be my flex but I just couldn't resist. QB is deep this year and WRs are always available late. For a guy who is only a year removed from putting up 1600 yards, I felt that in the third round it was a steal. The main concern coming out of 2011 was the high number of carries (343 in 2011) and his holdout. MJD responded by playing well at the start of the season, including a 24 pointer vs the Colts in Week 3. The injury bug unfortunately hit in Week 5 and he was done for the season. If he can be even the shell of the player he once was, this will be a great pick. Also, just the threat of having Lynch, Jackson, and MJD was awesome. He could also be used as trade bait later since I now had three stud running backs.
Round: 4
(31) Team phyfe - Roddy White WR
(32) Team Hubbard - Jimmy Graham TE
(33) Team awesomeness - Chris Johnson RB
(34) Bow To Me - Rob Gronkowski TE
(35) Hernandez end Not so tight - Larry Fitzgerald WR
(36) Team Conway - David Wilson RB
(37) GridIron Dogz - Vincent Jackson WR
** (38) Beans And Mash - Andre Johnson WR
(39) GridIron Great - Victor Cruz WR
(40) Team moyer - Darren McFadden RB
Safest Pick: Victor Cruz, WR
This is almost by default as I will get to in the next section, as every single one of the players picked in this round comes with a question mark attached, save for Vincent Jackson. Will Julio Jones dominate and make White irrelevant? Is Graham fully healed from off season wrist surgery coming off a season where he led the league in drops? Is CJ2K still even CJ1K? When will Gronk be ready to go and can he stay healthy? Does anyone else on the Cardinals offense know how to play football other than Fitzgerald? Can Wilson fill the void left by Ahmad Bradshaw while fending off Andre Brown for carries? Can Andre Johnson stay healthy and continue to be a viable threat in a run-first offense?Will Darren McFadden ever make it through a full year? Darren McFadden will never stay healthy...DON'T DRAFT HIM! Cruz seems to be a safe bet with Eli back in the pocket and hopefully Hakeem Nicks back. Although that means less targets for Cruz, it also means less concentrated coverage, allowing him to go for those long TDs he is known for.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Darren McFadden, RB
Don't draft him. Seriously. I wouldn't even claim him off waivers. Why? Because you'll think this is the game where he breaks out, start him, and he subsequently breaks 18 bones in his body. There comes a point when you've had enough.
My Pick: Andre Johnson, WR
As I said, he is in a run-first offense. They look to Foster or Owen Daniels in the passing game near the goal line, which contributed to Johnson's mere four TDs last year. I was in a bit of a pickle with this pick because I didn't really want Johnson, but I thought he was the best of what was available. Yes, I know Cruz was still there, but I wanted a true number one WR, not 1a. As you'll see in round 5 there were some tempting options (Kaepernick, Colston, Welker) but nothing that made me jump out of my seat. I felt content with Johnson knowing he had fair trade value if it came to that.
Round: 5
(41) Team moyer - Colin Kaepernick QB
(42) GridIron Great - Randall Cobb WR
** (43) Beans And Mash - Wes Welker WR
(44) GridIron Dogz - DeMarco Murray RB
(45) Team Conway - Marques Colston WR
(46) Hernandez end Not so tight - Danny Amendola WR
(47) Bow To Me - Russell Wilson QB
(48) Team awesomeness - Tony Gonzalez TE
(49) Team Hubbard - Montee Ball RB
(50) Team phyfe - Eric Decker WR
Safest Pick: Colin Kaepernick, QB
Another round with players with question marks, but I think Kaepernick answered all his questions during his run to the Super Bowl last year. I was one of the skeptics that didn't think he would get the job done and thought Alex Smith (who was having a good year until he got hurt) gave them the best chance to win. Well, that proved to be pretty dumb. Coming out of San Fran's bye week, Kaepernick exploded onto the scene and put up double digit points the rest of the way, extending his success into the post season. Now he comes back as the certified starter with another year with the offense. His passing skills and, more importantly to fantasy players, running skills are undeniable and make him a great pickup especially in the 5th round.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Montee Ball, RB
Rookies, especially while still in July, should make anyone nervous. Although the Broncos got rid of McGahee, it's still not a guarantee Ball even starts. Although he impressed at Wisconsin, I'm not sure how he will do in the pros. All I keep hearing about is Welker, Thomas, and Decker, so where will Ball get his points? It could end up like in Atlanta where the WRs get the points early on and then the RB comes in and cleans up. The difference is that in Atlanta, Jackson is an established NFL runner. Ball is coming into a new offense and will have his growing pains as a rookie. Some think he will be fantasy rookie of the year, but I believe he will be a flex at best by the end of it.
My Pick: Wes Welker, WR
Speaking of the Broncos, I decided to pick one of their talented receivers. Once again, I was in a bit of a bind and picked the best of a bad lot of players at the time. Murray has always had health problems and I already had 3 RBs, Colston has injury history, Amendola does as well and is with a new team, I didn't want Wilson because I wanted to wait on QB, Gonzo is getting old with too many mouths to feed in Atlanta, and Decker was just another Broncos receiver. Both Welker and I understand that the numbers won't be as high as they were in New England, but it's not like he won't do anything. Thomas and Decker should open up the middle for Welker and, given Manning's fading arm strength, will probably still see his fair share of targets. I think Welker is a pretty safe pick and should post decent fantasy numbers, especially for a 5th round WR.
Round: 6
(51) Team phyfe - Jason Witten TE
(52) Team Hubbard - Robert Griffin III QB
(53) Team awesomeness - Jordy Nelson WR
(54) Bow To Me - Mike Wallace WR
(55) Hernandez end Not so tight - Chris Ivory RB
(56) Team Conway - Andrew Luck QB
(57) GridIron Dogz - Dennis Pitta TE
** (58) Beans And Mash - Reggie Wayne WR
(59) GridIron Great - Vernon Davis TE
(60) Team moyer - Eddie Lacy RB
Safest Pick and My Pick: Reggie Wayne, WR
I'll combine both into the same one here as I decided to take the veteran WR as my first bench player. I predicted he would have a comeback year last year with Luck at QB and he responded in a big way. While I still think he will put up good numbers, he has a chance to regress a bit this year, but not by much. Luck targeted him early and often last year and has found a chemistry with Wayne. I might not feel as comfortable about this pick if he was in my starting lineup, but since I got him for my bench, I feel pretty good about this pick.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Dennis Pitta, TE
Pitta is a solid tight end, but not better than Davis, and not worth the number 57 pick. He certainly showed flashes of greatness last year including a 24 point game against Denver last year in many people's fantasy playoffs. Keep in mind, however, that he also put up two zeros, a one, one two, and three threes. His five pointer in Week 16 also didn't make people very happy. Theoretically, he should get more targets now that both Ed Dickson and Anquan Boldin are gone, but I'll believe it when I see it. If you need a TE and he falls, then grab him, but not when players like Davis and Wayne are still available.
Round: 7
(61) Team moyer - Hakeem Nicks WR
(62) GridIron Great - Matthew Stafford QB
** (63) Beans And Mash - Pierre Garcon WR
(64) GridIron Dogz - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
(65) Team Conway - Dwayne Bowe WR
(66) Hernandez end Not so tight - Tony Romo QB
(67) Bow To Me - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(68) Team awesomeness - Steve Smith WR
(69) Team Hubbard - Antonio Brown WR
(70) Team phyfe - 49ers D/ST D/ST
Safest Pick: Tony Romo, QB
Romo is the poster boy for displaying the difference between fantasy and reality. Reality wise, he will leave you scratching your head with stupid plays and bad decisions. Fantasy wise, he's pretty good. I'm really not sure why he is ranked so low in fantasy projections. And that's not Cowboy bias, it's just numbers. He outscored Luck, Russell Wilson, and Stafford last year yet is projected to go after all of them. Dez Bryant has established himself as a legit WR so he now has him to throw to. He was actually fairly consistent last year apart from back to back single digit games early in the year (vs Bucs and Bears), but even the great ones have bad days. Anyone else remember Drew Brees' 5 interception performance against the Falcons that netted owners a whole 3 fantasy points? Romo is a stats machine, especially in the regular season, and is one guy that I would endorse reaching for. Now if he could just get it together in real life...
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick and My Pick: Pierre Garcon, WR
I reached for Garcon a bit, even though he'll be on my bench. In my opinion, Garcon is the ultimate boom or bust player. He could let the injury from last year slow him down (or get injured again) and have a terrible campaign, or, if they're both healthy, I believe a Griffin to Garcon connection could become one of the best in the league. Heck, it was for a while. He went for 16 in the first week, then posted three double digit games in Weeks 12-14. His injury concern me, and he has stated himself that he is not 100%. It's a risky move because it could be a complete waste of a pick especially with Romo sitting there (I still have no QB), but the upside was too good to pass up.
2 rounds at a time now
Round: 8
(71) Team phyfe - Ryan Mathews RB
(72) Team Hubbard - Lamar Miller RB
(73) Team awesomeness - Texans D/ST D/ST
(74) Bow To Me - Sebastian Janikowski K
(75) Hernandez end Not so tight - Le'Veon Bell RB
(76) Team Conway - Greg Jennings WR
(77) GridIron Dogz - Seahawks D/ST D/ST
** (78) Beans And Mash - James Jones WR
(79) GridIron Great - Broncos D/ST D/ST
(80) Team moyer - Tavon Austin WR
Round: 9
(81) Team moyer - Rashard Mendenhall RB
(82) GridIron Great - Miles Austin WR
** (83) Beans And Mash - Eli Manning QB
(84) GridIron Dogz - Danario Alexander WR
(85) Team Conway - Kyle Rudolph TE
(86) Hernandez end Not so tight - Torrey Smith WR
(87) Bow To Me - Bears D/ST D/ST
(88) Team awesomeness - Alex Henery K
(89) Team Hubbard - Bengals D/ST D/ST
(90) Team phyfe - Cecil Shorts WR
Safest Pick and My Pick: James Jones, WR
Honestly, in these later rounds, safest and riskiest are sort of subjective. But not here. Jones is a guy that did pretty well last year, especially when Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings were battling injuries. Now with Jennings gone, Jones will probably be on the field more in a potent Green Bay attack with the best QB in the game throwing him the ball. Sounds like a good formula. He rewarded owners last year during the playoffs with an astonishing 24 in Chicago in Week 15, 16 against the Titans in Week 16, then 12 in Minnesota during the final week. Even though he and Nelson are probably WRs 1 and 1a, I think Jones has a chance to establish himself as the clear cut number 1 receiver in Green Bay.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Kickers
Let me just use this space to remind you not to take kickers until the final round. They won't win you a title, they won't lose you a title, and the difference between the first and the tenth is inconsequential. Just wait on them.
My Other Pick: Eli Manning, QB
My only explanation here is that I needed a quarterback. I am not a Manning nor Giants fan. In this scenario, he would likely be traded. That is all.
Round: 10
(91) Team phyfe - DeSean Jackson WR
(92) Team Hubbard - Anquan Boldin WR
(93) Team awesomeness - Ben Roethlisberger QB
(94) Bow To Me - Steve Johnson WR
(95) Hernandez end Not so tight - Jeremy Maclin WR
(96) Team Conway - Andy Dalton QB
(97) GridIron Dogz - Carson Palmer QB
** (98) Beans And Mash - Shane Vereen RB
(99) GridIron Great - Andre Brown RB
(100) Team moyer - Owen Daniels TE
Round: 11
(101) Team moyer - Mark Ingram RB
(102) GridIron Great - Antonio Gates TE
** (103) Beans And Mash - Mike Williams WR
(104) GridIron Dogz - Greg Olsen TE
(105) Team Conway - Ravens D/ST D/ST
(106) Hernandez end Not so tight - Mikel Leshoure RB
(107) Bow To Me - Brian Hartline WR
(108) Team awesomeness - Vick Ballard RB
(109) Team Hubbard - Stephen Gostkowski K
(110) Team phyfe - T.Y. Hilton WR
Safest Pick: Owen Daniels, TE
Slim pickings here for safest pick, but someone in need of a tight end in round 10 could do worse than Daniels. Despite the Texans run-first style, Daniels still has one thing going for him; Matt Schaub. Schaub's play action is solid and Daniels is definitely the second option in the passing game behind Andre Johnson. Daniels posted four double digit games last year, which is pretty good considering the injuries he battled last year. While he won't wow you with Gronk or Graham type numbers, he won't leave you hanging and will usually give you something every week.
Riskiest Pick: Ravens D/ST
Similar to kickers, I advise against taking defense until the second to last or last round due to the small difference between the ones at the top (Chicago last year was an anomaly). On top of that, they lost so many key players. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were the highly publicized losses, but they also lost Bernard Pollard, Paul Kruger, and Dannell Ellerbe. They added a few replacements and, as they have been known to do, drafted defense heavy. Still, I think this unit suffers in a big way in 2013 as they realize just how much Lewis meant to the defense as a whole.
My Picks: Shane Vereen, RB, Mike Williams, WR
With Vereen, I just needed some RB depth on my bench while hoping that Ridley goes down this year. It also helps that Danny Woodhead is gone so it is possible that Vereen gets an increase in touches regardless of Ridley's health. Williams is the number 2 option on Tampa Bay and he put up eight double digit games last year. Unfortunately given the success of Doug Martin, I think Tampa Bay becomes more run oriented this year, but Williams can still put up solid numbers and can easily be traded if he has a couple good games.
Round: 12
(111) Team phyfe - Johnathan Franklin RB
(112) Team Hubbard - Jonathan Stewart RB
(113) Team awesomeness - Sidney Rice WR
(114) Bow To Me - Lance Moore WR
(115) Hernandez end Not so tight - Jermichael Finley TE
(116) Team Conway - Jared Cook TE
(117) GridIron Dogz - Greg Zuerlein K
** (118) Beans And Mash - DeAngelo Williams RB
(119) GridIron Great - Alshon Jeffery WR
(120) Team moyer - Kenny Britt WR
Round: 13
(121) Team moyer - Chris Givens WR
(122) GridIron Great - Blair Walsh K
** (123) Beans And Mash - Sam Bradford QB
(124) GridIron Dogz - Denarius Moore WR
(125) Team Conway - Matt Bryant K
(126) Hernandez end Not so tight - Emmanuel Sanders WR
(127) Bow To Me - Tim Tebow QB
(128) Team awesomeness - Brandon Myers TE
(129) Team Hubbard - Giovani Bernard RB
(130) Team phyfe - Justin Tucker K
Safest Pick and My Pick: Sam Bradford, QB
It is getting harder and harder to justify any safe picks in these later rounds, but I think Bradford as my backup in the 13th is pretty safe. His upside is pretty decent as the Rams acquired Pro Bowl tackle Jake Long, tight end Jared Cook, and unanimously hyped rookie WR Tavon Austin. He's shown the ability to put up big numbers in the past so a breakout season isn't out of the question. Jackson's leaving does concern me because the threat of a running game is no longer there, but I think Bradford as a backup QB in any league is a good choice.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Jermichael Finley, TE
Finley, similar to McFadden, is a guy that has shown flashes, but always ends up letting you down. He certainly has the size to be an elite tight end in the league and is on arguably the best offense in the league yet can't seem to get it going. He reached double digits only twice last year and topped off at 72 yards receiving. In this day and age when tight ends are becoming more and more involved in the passing game, you need more production than that. The fact that he was taken ahead of Cook, Moore, and Martellus Bennett makes it even more surprising.
My Other Pick: DeAngelo Williams, RB
Will Williams or Stewart just get out of Carolina already? It would really help us fantasy players. Instead we're left to flip a coin that has now become three sided in determining whether it will be Williams, Stewart, Newton, or some combination of the three that goes off for a big day in the Panthers' backfield. This pick was to bolster my RB depth and hope that Stewart gets hurt or one of them gets traded away. Don't care who it is, but both have the talent to be number one backs so it is beyond frustrating that they are on the same team.
Round: 14
(131) Team phyfe - Matt Schaub QB
(132) Team Hubbard - Ryan Williams RB
(133) Team awesomeness - Bryce Brown RB
(134) Bow To Me - Brandon Weeden QB
(135) Hernandez end Not so tight - Buccaneers D/ST D/ST
(136) Team Conway - Kendall Wright WR
(137) GridIron Dogz - Rams D/ST D/ST
** (138) Beans And Mash - Steelers D/ST D/ST
(139) GridIron Great - Martellus Bennett TE
(140) Team moyer - Jacquizz Rodgers RB
Round: 15
(141) Team moyer - Patriots D/ST D/ST
(142) GridIron Great - Santonio Holmes WR
** (143) Beans And Mash - Fred Davis TE
(144) GridIron Dogz - Daryl Richardson RB
(145) Team Conway - Packers D/ST D/ST
(146) Hernandez end Not so tight - Philip Rivers QB
(147) Bow To Me - Isaiah Pead RB
(148) Team awesomeness - Joe Flacco QB
(149) Team Hubbard - Bernard Pierce RB
(150) Team phyfe - Josh Gordon WR
Safest Pick: Josh Gordon, WR
Well, he's safe when he's eligible. As it stands right now, he is suspended for the first two games of the season, but look at the players on this list. No one is really a safe pick. Gordon had a pretty solid year considering he is on the Cleveland Browns finishing with 805 yards and 5 TDs. He hit the 20 point mark in Week 5 and followed it with two more double digit performances. He's still limited by Brandon Weeden and the Browns' offense as a whole, but as a fill in WR in the 15th, he's a pretty good choice.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Phillip Rivers, QB
Similar to McFadden, just don't pick him. No matter what. He ruined my team last year, as well as his arm as it appears to have lost the strength it once had. He made puzzling throws all year long and looked lost without Vincent Jackson to throw to. Stay away from Rivers in 2013.
My Picks: Steelers D/ST, Fred Davis, TE
The only positions I had left to fill were defense, TE, and kicker by this point. This should be the case for you too (unless Graham or Gronk drops considerably far). The Steelers obviously have always had a reputation for strong defense, but were so-so fantasy wise last year. I predict the turnovers will increase and Jarvis Jones makes a run for defensive rookie of the year. As far as my TE goes, I actually wanted Bennett and Cook late, but waited too long to pull the trigger. Insert Davis who I thought would have done better with RG3 at the helm. Unfortunately, he finished the year with zero TDs and injured on the sidelines. Hopefully 2013 brings better fortunes, though I would likely trade Davis and one of my WRs for a better TE.
Round: 16
(151) Team phyfe - Michael Vick QB
(152) Team Hubbard - Fred Jackson RB
(153) Team awesomeness - Ben Tate RB
(154) Bow To Me - Brandon Lloyd WR
(155) Hernandez end Not so tight - Matt Prater K
(156) Team Conway - Steven Hauschka K
(157) GridIron Dogz - Michael Bush RB
** (158) Beans And Mash - Dan Bailey K
(159) GridIron Great - Cowboys D/ST D/ST
(160) Team moyer - Phil Dawson K
It's the last round. Just get a good kicker on a good team.
Things learned from this mock draft:
1. QB is very, very deep this year. I would say that unless Rodgers falls to you, wait to take a QB. RG3 is going to be available late due to the uncertainty about his injury so you could just get him late and grab a decent QB to fill in the first couple weeks if it comes to that. Even though I wanted to find one earlier, I was able to get a pretty decent QB in the 9th round, and also saw Big Ben go in the 10th. That's better than normal depth due to the breakout rookie seasons enjoyed by RG3, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck. Along with Kaepernick's stellar second half of the year, it has made this QB class very deep. Wait if you can on QB.
2. RB is very, very shallow this year. The names are still the same, but questions are abound. Can Doug Martin repeat his phenomenal rookie year? What about Alfred Morris? Will Trent Richardson be healthy? Can rookies Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball perform well like people are predicting? The only true sure bets I see in this running back class are AP, Foster, and Lynch. The rest have either injury questions, are on a new team, are rookies, or have a terrible offense around them. I'm sure several of these backs and probably ones off the radar will emerge, I'm just not sure who.
3. The number one pick is very desirable this year. Some years, there is no clear cut number one so the first overall can actually be a curse because you have to wait longer even though your selected player might be worth the 5th overall pick by the end of the year. Take last year for example. Rodgers was the popular number one pick, but if someone had gone with Foster or Rice or even McCoy, it would not have been that much of a shock. This year anyone who doesn't take AP number one will be run out of town. Also, when looking at the players available when you would pick next, the players are pretty good. In this draft, the person with the number one pick went Brandon Marshall-Julio Jones with his second and third picks; two elite WRs guaranteed to put up numbers. This is the year you want that first pick.
4. Mock drafts can be helpful. Honestly, if you have the time, just go into one on ESPN. There's plenty there and people are doing them all the time. You can quit at any time so just play out the first few rounds and see how it goes. See who is going where and what players will be available if you get a certain pick. In my opinion, I think the most favorable positions this year are numbers 1, 3, and 7. Obviously each draft will play out differently, but those are the three that seem to have the best options of players available when you pick.
5. If you read through this whole thing, I thank you. I know it was a lot, but that's fantasy football. There's more to come as I'll do a team by team breakdown as we get closer to the start of the season just like last year. I'll probably also do another one of these for my real league when we draft. Hopefully you play this year and have fun doing it.
6. If you're in my league this year, everything you just read was complete B.S. Don't believe it. Feel free to draft any combination of Aaron Hernandez, Tim Tebow, and Mark Sanchez with your first three picks.
My complete drafted team
QB - Eli Manning
RB - Marshawn Lynch
RB - Steven Jackson
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Wes Welker
TE - Fred Davis
FLEX - Maurice Jones-Drew
K - Dan Bailey
D/ST - Steelers
BN - Sam Bradford
BN - DeAngelo Williams
BN - Pierre Garcon
BN - Shane Vareen
BN - Reggie Wayne
BN - Mike Williams
BN - James Jones
Matty O
Round: 1
(1) Team moyer - Adrian Peterson RB
(2) GridIron Great - Arian Foster RB
** (3) Beans And Mash - Marshawn Lynch RB
(4) GridIron Dogz - Doug Martin RB
(5) Team Conway - Ray Rice RB
(6) Hernandez end Not so tight - Jamaal Charles RB
(7) Bow To Me - Tom Brady QB
(8) Team awesomeness - Aaron Rodgers QB
(9) Team Hubbard - C.J. Spiller RB
(10) Team phyfe - Alfred Morris RB
Safest Pick: Adrian Peterson, RB
Just putting this here so you remember to draft him first overall. Don't try and get cute with Foster or an up and comer like Doug Martin. Stick with the man who almost broke the single season rushing record coming off a torn ACL.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Tom Brady, QB
Lots of people have Brady ranked lower this year and for good reason. He's another year older, doesn't have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and probably Rob Gronkowski at least for the start of the season. Having said that, it is Tom Brady and he helped Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk become household fantasy names. Still, with the number 7 overall pick? Not smart Team Bow to Me. Especially taking him ahead of Aaron Rodgers. While I would normally back out of a draft room after a pick like this, I decided to wait and see, and indeed Bow To Me picked like normal the rest of the way. I guess just keep in mind that some players in your league will be all about a player and pick him way ahead of where he's projected. It just happens. With so many questions at RB this year though, taking him ahead of Spiller, Morris, and Trent Richardson was a head scratcher.
My Pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB
This was pretty much who I expected to get, and who you should expect to get if you have the number three slot in your draft. 90% of drafts this year will have AP go one and Foster go two. Some people have been high on Martin and Charles due to their quickness and speed, but Lynch has a great offense, an outstanding defense to give the Seahawks a cushion so they can run the ball late in the game, and is simply a beast. With no threat to his position from a backup and an established QB, Lynch is about as safe as AP.
Round: 2
(11) Team phyfe - Peyton Manning QB
(12) Team Hubbard - Drew Brees QB
(13) Team awesomeness - LeSean McCoy RB
(14) Bow To Me - Calvin Johnson WR
(15) Hernandez end Not so tight - Trent Richardson RB
(16) Team Conway - Matt Forte RB
(17) GridIron Dogz - A.J. Green WR
** (18) Beans And Mash - Steven Jackson RB
(19) GridIron Great - Stevan Ridley RB
(20) Team moyer - Brandon Marshall WR
Safest Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR
Matthew Stafford's number one target should continue to post phenomenal numbers this year. Due to this league's odd infatuation with quarterbacks, he dropped to 14 to last round's Riskiest Pick winner, Bow To Me. Amazingly, even though he finished first among WRs in fantasy points and nearly got 2,000 yards, he only scored 5 times. 5! Think that happens again? I don't think so. The yards will be hard to repeat, but his TD total should be higher next year. If he manages to get high marks in both, Johnson could prove to be worth a first round pick this year; a rarity for WRs.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Peyton Manning, QB
Similar to the Brady pick, it's not so much that Manning is bad, but more so where he was picked. I don't consider Manning better than Brees in fantasy, and McCoy, Richardson, and Megatron's value is all probably better than Manning's. Manning is also 37 so it's not like he's the youngest dude out there. I have the same concern about him as last year being that one hit in the right spot and he could be done for the season given his neck problems. The addition of Wes Welker makes this offense a QBs dream with Thomas and Decker, but taking him at 11 is a bit too high for me.
My Pick: Steven Jackson, RB
I was praying that Jackson would fall to me, especially after Forte was taken. Getting the 1-2 punch of Lynch and Jackson at running back really set me up well for the rest of the draft. As I mentioned earlier, RB is shallow this year so if you can find two quality backs in the first two rounds, I advise you do. Skeptics will point out his low yardage totals from last year, but he was with the Rams. Now, he goes to an explosive Falcons offense that can both a) open up the line of scrimmage with the threat of the passing game and b) score early and often so Jackson can rumble and ring up touches at the end of the game. He never really had either with the Rams, so I think this is a great opportunity for Jackson.
Round: 3
(21) Team moyer - Julio Jones WR
(22) GridIron Great - Matt Ryan QB
** (23) Beans And Mash - Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(24) GridIron Dogz - Cam Newton QB
(25) Team Conway - Frank Gore RB
(26) Hernandez end Not so tight - Dez Bryant WR
(27) Bow To Me - Darren Sproles RB
(28) Team awesomeness - Demaryius Thomas WR
(29) Team Hubbard - Percy Harvin WR
(30) Team phyfe - Reggie Bush RB
Safest Pick: Dez Bryant, WR
Some might not call this a safe pick because they're still not believers, but you better start believing. Yes I am a Cowboys fan so there may be a bit of bias here, but if you don't want him then I gladly will, especially at pick number 26. After starting out the year slow, giving more critics the chance to get on his case, he exploded and went for double digit points in Weeks 10-16. This included back to back to back 20 point games and a 34 point monster against New Orleans in Week 16, many people's fantasy championship week. By the way, Calvin only had back to back 20 point games and peaked out at 24 points as his season high. I think Dez has the chance to be the best WR in terms of fantasy this year and is projected to go in the second round! Snag him if you can.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Frank Gore, RB
I was going to go with Matt Ryan, but I figured I should change up the pace of this category from just quarterbacks (although Ryan was a dumb pick at 22). Yes, he has stayed healthy the past two years, but I think those injury concerns will eventually catch up to him. He's reached age 30, which is usually when RBs start to go downhill. It has certainly helped that he has a stellar offensive line, and Kaepernick's athleticism has helped San Fran's RBs in general because the defense has to respect Kaepernick, leaving gaps for the runners. On top of injury concerns, however, is the fact that I think Kendall Hunter, and especially LaMichael James, gets more touches this year. I could be wrong here, but I think Gore regresses this year.
My Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
Did I mention how much I love taking RBs early this year? I'll be honest, I was very tempted to take either Newton or Bryant in this spot, since MJD would be my flex but I just couldn't resist. QB is deep this year and WRs are always available late. For a guy who is only a year removed from putting up 1600 yards, I felt that in the third round it was a steal. The main concern coming out of 2011 was the high number of carries (343 in 2011) and his holdout. MJD responded by playing well at the start of the season, including a 24 pointer vs the Colts in Week 3. The injury bug unfortunately hit in Week 5 and he was done for the season. If he can be even the shell of the player he once was, this will be a great pick. Also, just the threat of having Lynch, Jackson, and MJD was awesome. He could also be used as trade bait later since I now had three stud running backs.
Round: 4
(31) Team phyfe - Roddy White WR
(32) Team Hubbard - Jimmy Graham TE
(33) Team awesomeness - Chris Johnson RB
(34) Bow To Me - Rob Gronkowski TE
(35) Hernandez end Not so tight - Larry Fitzgerald WR
(36) Team Conway - David Wilson RB
(37) GridIron Dogz - Vincent Jackson WR
** (38) Beans And Mash - Andre Johnson WR
(39) GridIron Great - Victor Cruz WR
(40) Team moyer - Darren McFadden RB
Safest Pick: Victor Cruz, WR
This is almost by default as I will get to in the next section, as every single one of the players picked in this round comes with a question mark attached, save for Vincent Jackson. Will Julio Jones dominate and make White irrelevant? Is Graham fully healed from off season wrist surgery coming off a season where he led the league in drops? Is CJ2K still even CJ1K? When will Gronk be ready to go and can he stay healthy? Does anyone else on the Cardinals offense know how to play football other than Fitzgerald? Can Wilson fill the void left by Ahmad Bradshaw while fending off Andre Brown for carries? Can Andre Johnson stay healthy and continue to be a viable threat in a run-first offense?
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Darren McFadden, RB
Don't draft him. Seriously. I wouldn't even claim him off waivers. Why? Because you'll think this is the game where he breaks out, start him, and he subsequently breaks 18 bones in his body. There comes a point when you've had enough.
My Pick: Andre Johnson, WR
As I said, he is in a run-first offense. They look to Foster or Owen Daniels in the passing game near the goal line, which contributed to Johnson's mere four TDs last year. I was in a bit of a pickle with this pick because I didn't really want Johnson, but I thought he was the best of what was available. Yes, I know Cruz was still there, but I wanted a true number one WR, not 1a. As you'll see in round 5 there were some tempting options (Kaepernick, Colston, Welker) but nothing that made me jump out of my seat. I felt content with Johnson knowing he had fair trade value if it came to that.
Round: 5
(41) Team moyer - Colin Kaepernick QB
(42) GridIron Great - Randall Cobb WR
** (43) Beans And Mash - Wes Welker WR
(44) GridIron Dogz - DeMarco Murray RB
(45) Team Conway - Marques Colston WR
(46) Hernandez end Not so tight - Danny Amendola WR
(47) Bow To Me - Russell Wilson QB
(48) Team awesomeness - Tony Gonzalez TE
(49) Team Hubbard - Montee Ball RB
(50) Team phyfe - Eric Decker WR
Safest Pick: Colin Kaepernick, QB
Another round with players with question marks, but I think Kaepernick answered all his questions during his run to the Super Bowl last year. I was one of the skeptics that didn't think he would get the job done and thought Alex Smith (who was having a good year until he got hurt) gave them the best chance to win. Well, that proved to be pretty dumb. Coming out of San Fran's bye week, Kaepernick exploded onto the scene and put up double digit points the rest of the way, extending his success into the post season. Now he comes back as the certified starter with another year with the offense. His passing skills and, more importantly to fantasy players, running skills are undeniable and make him a great pickup especially in the 5th round.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Montee Ball, RB
Rookies, especially while still in July, should make anyone nervous. Although the Broncos got rid of McGahee, it's still not a guarantee Ball even starts. Although he impressed at Wisconsin, I'm not sure how he will do in the pros. All I keep hearing about is Welker, Thomas, and Decker, so where will Ball get his points? It could end up like in Atlanta where the WRs get the points early on and then the RB comes in and cleans up. The difference is that in Atlanta, Jackson is an established NFL runner. Ball is coming into a new offense and will have his growing pains as a rookie. Some think he will be fantasy rookie of the year, but I believe he will be a flex at best by the end of it.
My Pick: Wes Welker, WR
Speaking of the Broncos, I decided to pick one of their talented receivers. Once again, I was in a bit of a bind and picked the best of a bad lot of players at the time. Murray has always had health problems and I already had 3 RBs, Colston has injury history, Amendola does as well and is with a new team, I didn't want Wilson because I wanted to wait on QB, Gonzo is getting old with too many mouths to feed in Atlanta, and Decker was just another Broncos receiver. Both Welker and I understand that the numbers won't be as high as they were in New England, but it's not like he won't do anything. Thomas and Decker should open up the middle for Welker and, given Manning's fading arm strength, will probably still see his fair share of targets. I think Welker is a pretty safe pick and should post decent fantasy numbers, especially for a 5th round WR.
Round: 6
(51) Team phyfe - Jason Witten TE
(52) Team Hubbard - Robert Griffin III QB
(53) Team awesomeness - Jordy Nelson WR
(54) Bow To Me - Mike Wallace WR
(55) Hernandez end Not so tight - Chris Ivory RB
(56) Team Conway - Andrew Luck QB
(57) GridIron Dogz - Dennis Pitta TE
** (58) Beans And Mash - Reggie Wayne WR
(59) GridIron Great - Vernon Davis TE
(60) Team moyer - Eddie Lacy RB
Safest Pick and My Pick: Reggie Wayne, WR
I'll combine both into the same one here as I decided to take the veteran WR as my first bench player. I predicted he would have a comeback year last year with Luck at QB and he responded in a big way. While I still think he will put up good numbers, he has a chance to regress a bit this year, but not by much. Luck targeted him early and often last year and has found a chemistry with Wayne. I might not feel as comfortable about this pick if he was in my starting lineup, but since I got him for my bench, I feel pretty good about this pick.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Dennis Pitta, TE
Pitta is a solid tight end, but not better than Davis, and not worth the number 57 pick. He certainly showed flashes of greatness last year including a 24 point game against Denver last year in many people's fantasy playoffs. Keep in mind, however, that he also put up two zeros, a one, one two, and three threes. His five pointer in Week 16 also didn't make people very happy. Theoretically, he should get more targets now that both Ed Dickson and Anquan Boldin are gone, but I'll believe it when I see it. If you need a TE and he falls, then grab him, but not when players like Davis and Wayne are still available.
Round: 7
(61) Team moyer - Hakeem Nicks WR
(62) GridIron Great - Matthew Stafford QB
** (63) Beans And Mash - Pierre Garcon WR
(64) GridIron Dogz - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
(65) Team Conway - Dwayne Bowe WR
(66) Hernandez end Not so tight - Tony Romo QB
(67) Bow To Me - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(68) Team awesomeness - Steve Smith WR
(69) Team Hubbard - Antonio Brown WR
(70) Team phyfe - 49ers D/ST D/ST
Safest Pick: Tony Romo, QB
Romo is the poster boy for displaying the difference between fantasy and reality. Reality wise, he will leave you scratching your head with stupid plays and bad decisions. Fantasy wise, he's pretty good. I'm really not sure why he is ranked so low in fantasy projections. And that's not Cowboy bias, it's just numbers. He outscored Luck, Russell Wilson, and Stafford last year yet is projected to go after all of them. Dez Bryant has established himself as a legit WR so he now has him to throw to. He was actually fairly consistent last year apart from back to back single digit games early in the year (vs Bucs and Bears), but even the great ones have bad days. Anyone else remember Drew Brees' 5 interception performance against the Falcons that netted owners a whole 3 fantasy points? Romo is a stats machine, especially in the regular season, and is one guy that I would endorse reaching for. Now if he could just get it together in real life...
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick and My Pick: Pierre Garcon, WR
I reached for Garcon a bit, even though he'll be on my bench. In my opinion, Garcon is the ultimate boom or bust player. He could let the injury from last year slow him down (or get injured again) and have a terrible campaign, or, if they're both healthy, I believe a Griffin to Garcon connection could become one of the best in the league. Heck, it was for a while. He went for 16 in the first week, then posted three double digit games in Weeks 12-14. His injury concern me, and he has stated himself that he is not 100%. It's a risky move because it could be a complete waste of a pick especially with Romo sitting there (I still have no QB), but the upside was too good to pass up.
2 rounds at a time now
Round: 8
(71) Team phyfe - Ryan Mathews RB
(72) Team Hubbard - Lamar Miller RB
(73) Team awesomeness - Texans D/ST D/ST
(74) Bow To Me - Sebastian Janikowski K
(75) Hernandez end Not so tight - Le'Veon Bell RB
(76) Team Conway - Greg Jennings WR
(77) GridIron Dogz - Seahawks D/ST D/ST
** (78) Beans And Mash - James Jones WR
(79) GridIron Great - Broncos D/ST D/ST
(80) Team moyer - Tavon Austin WR
Round: 9
(81) Team moyer - Rashard Mendenhall RB
(82) GridIron Great - Miles Austin WR
** (83) Beans And Mash - Eli Manning QB
(84) GridIron Dogz - Danario Alexander WR
(85) Team Conway - Kyle Rudolph TE
(86) Hernandez end Not so tight - Torrey Smith WR
(87) Bow To Me - Bears D/ST D/ST
(88) Team awesomeness - Alex Henery K
(89) Team Hubbard - Bengals D/ST D/ST
(90) Team phyfe - Cecil Shorts WR
Safest Pick and My Pick: James Jones, WR
Honestly, in these later rounds, safest and riskiest are sort of subjective. But not here. Jones is a guy that did pretty well last year, especially when Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings were battling injuries. Now with Jennings gone, Jones will probably be on the field more in a potent Green Bay attack with the best QB in the game throwing him the ball. Sounds like a good formula. He rewarded owners last year during the playoffs with an astonishing 24 in Chicago in Week 15, 16 against the Titans in Week 16, then 12 in Minnesota during the final week. Even though he and Nelson are probably WRs 1 and 1a, I think Jones has a chance to establish himself as the clear cut number 1 receiver in Green Bay.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Kickers
Let me just use this space to remind you not to take kickers until the final round. They won't win you a title, they won't lose you a title, and the difference between the first and the tenth is inconsequential. Just wait on them.
My Other Pick: Eli Manning, QB
My only explanation here is that I needed a quarterback. I am not a Manning nor Giants fan. In this scenario, he would likely be traded. That is all.
Round: 10
(91) Team phyfe - DeSean Jackson WR
(92) Team Hubbard - Anquan Boldin WR
(93) Team awesomeness - Ben Roethlisberger QB
(94) Bow To Me - Steve Johnson WR
(95) Hernandez end Not so tight - Jeremy Maclin WR
(96) Team Conway - Andy Dalton QB
(97) GridIron Dogz - Carson Palmer QB
** (98) Beans And Mash - Shane Vereen RB
(99) GridIron Great - Andre Brown RB
(100) Team moyer - Owen Daniels TE
Round: 11
(101) Team moyer - Mark Ingram RB
(102) GridIron Great - Antonio Gates TE
** (103) Beans And Mash - Mike Williams WR
(104) GridIron Dogz - Greg Olsen TE
(105) Team Conway - Ravens D/ST D/ST
(106) Hernandez end Not so tight - Mikel Leshoure RB
(107) Bow To Me - Brian Hartline WR
(108) Team awesomeness - Vick Ballard RB
(109) Team Hubbard - Stephen Gostkowski K
(110) Team phyfe - T.Y. Hilton WR
Safest Pick: Owen Daniels, TE
Slim pickings here for safest pick, but someone in need of a tight end in round 10 could do worse than Daniels. Despite the Texans run-first style, Daniels still has one thing going for him; Matt Schaub. Schaub's play action is solid and Daniels is definitely the second option in the passing game behind Andre Johnson. Daniels posted four double digit games last year, which is pretty good considering the injuries he battled last year. While he won't wow you with Gronk or Graham type numbers, he won't leave you hanging and will usually give you something every week.
Riskiest Pick: Ravens D/ST
Similar to kickers, I advise against taking defense until the second to last or last round due to the small difference between the ones at the top (Chicago last year was an anomaly). On top of that, they lost so many key players. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed were the highly publicized losses, but they also lost Bernard Pollard, Paul Kruger, and Dannell Ellerbe. They added a few replacements and, as they have been known to do, drafted defense heavy. Still, I think this unit suffers in a big way in 2013 as they realize just how much Lewis meant to the defense as a whole.
My Picks: Shane Vereen, RB, Mike Williams, WR
With Vereen, I just needed some RB depth on my bench while hoping that Ridley goes down this year. It also helps that Danny Woodhead is gone so it is possible that Vereen gets an increase in touches regardless of Ridley's health. Williams is the number 2 option on Tampa Bay and he put up eight double digit games last year. Unfortunately given the success of Doug Martin, I think Tampa Bay becomes more run oriented this year, but Williams can still put up solid numbers and can easily be traded if he has a couple good games.
Round: 12
(111) Team phyfe - Johnathan Franklin RB
(112) Team Hubbard - Jonathan Stewart RB
(113) Team awesomeness - Sidney Rice WR
(114) Bow To Me - Lance Moore WR
(115) Hernandez end Not so tight - Jermichael Finley TE
(116) Team Conway - Jared Cook TE
(117) GridIron Dogz - Greg Zuerlein K
** (118) Beans And Mash - DeAngelo Williams RB
(119) GridIron Great - Alshon Jeffery WR
(120) Team moyer - Kenny Britt WR
Round: 13
(121) Team moyer - Chris Givens WR
(122) GridIron Great - Blair Walsh K
** (123) Beans And Mash - Sam Bradford QB
(124) GridIron Dogz - Denarius Moore WR
(125) Team Conway - Matt Bryant K
(126) Hernandez end Not so tight - Emmanuel Sanders WR
(127) Bow To Me - Tim Tebow QB
(128) Team awesomeness - Brandon Myers TE
(129) Team Hubbard - Giovani Bernard RB
(130) Team phyfe - Justin Tucker K
Safest Pick and My Pick: Sam Bradford, QB
It is getting harder and harder to justify any safe picks in these later rounds, but I think Bradford as my backup in the 13th is pretty safe. His upside is pretty decent as the Rams acquired Pro Bowl tackle Jake Long, tight end Jared Cook, and unanimously hyped rookie WR Tavon Austin. He's shown the ability to put up big numbers in the past so a breakout season isn't out of the question. Jackson's leaving does concern me because the threat of a running game is no longer there, but I think Bradford as a backup QB in any league is a good choice.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Jermichael Finley, TE
Finley, similar to McFadden, is a guy that has shown flashes, but always ends up letting you down. He certainly has the size to be an elite tight end in the league and is on arguably the best offense in the league yet can't seem to get it going. He reached double digits only twice last year and topped off at 72 yards receiving. In this day and age when tight ends are becoming more and more involved in the passing game, you need more production than that. The fact that he was taken ahead of Cook, Moore, and Martellus Bennett makes it even more surprising.
My Other Pick: DeAngelo Williams, RB
Will Williams or Stewart just get out of Carolina already? It would really help us fantasy players. Instead we're left to flip a coin that has now become three sided in determining whether it will be Williams, Stewart, Newton, or some combination of the three that goes off for a big day in the Panthers' backfield. This pick was to bolster my RB depth and hope that Stewart gets hurt or one of them gets traded away. Don't care who it is, but both have the talent to be number one backs so it is beyond frustrating that they are on the same team.
Round: 14
(131) Team phyfe - Matt Schaub QB
(132) Team Hubbard - Ryan Williams RB
(133) Team awesomeness - Bryce Brown RB
(134) Bow To Me - Brandon Weeden QB
(135) Hernandez end Not so tight - Buccaneers D/ST D/ST
(136) Team Conway - Kendall Wright WR
(137) GridIron Dogz - Rams D/ST D/ST
** (138) Beans And Mash - Steelers D/ST D/ST
(139) GridIron Great - Martellus Bennett TE
(140) Team moyer - Jacquizz Rodgers RB
Round: 15
(141) Team moyer - Patriots D/ST D/ST
(142) GridIron Great - Santonio Holmes WR
** (143) Beans And Mash - Fred Davis TE
(144) GridIron Dogz - Daryl Richardson RB
(145) Team Conway - Packers D/ST D/ST
(146) Hernandez end Not so tight - Philip Rivers QB
(147) Bow To Me - Isaiah Pead RB
(148) Team awesomeness - Joe Flacco QB
(149) Team Hubbard - Bernard Pierce RB
(150) Team phyfe - Josh Gordon WR
Safest Pick: Josh Gordon, WR
Well, he's safe when he's eligible. As it stands right now, he is suspended for the first two games of the season, but look at the players on this list. No one is really a safe pick. Gordon had a pretty solid year considering he is on the Cleveland Browns finishing with 805 yards and 5 TDs. He hit the 20 point mark in Week 5 and followed it with two more double digit performances. He's still limited by Brandon Weeden and the Browns' offense as a whole, but as a fill in WR in the 15th, he's a pretty good choice.
Riskiest/Most Surprising Pick: Phillip Rivers, QB
Similar to McFadden, just don't pick him. No matter what. He ruined my team last year, as well as his arm as it appears to have lost the strength it once had. He made puzzling throws all year long and looked lost without Vincent Jackson to throw to. Stay away from Rivers in 2013.
My Picks: Steelers D/ST, Fred Davis, TE
The only positions I had left to fill were defense, TE, and kicker by this point. This should be the case for you too (unless Graham or Gronk drops considerably far). The Steelers obviously have always had a reputation for strong defense, but were so-so fantasy wise last year. I predict the turnovers will increase and Jarvis Jones makes a run for defensive rookie of the year. As far as my TE goes, I actually wanted Bennett and Cook late, but waited too long to pull the trigger. Insert Davis who I thought would have done better with RG3 at the helm. Unfortunately, he finished the year with zero TDs and injured on the sidelines. Hopefully 2013 brings better fortunes, though I would likely trade Davis and one of my WRs for a better TE.
Round: 16
(151) Team phyfe - Michael Vick QB
(152) Team Hubbard - Fred Jackson RB
(153) Team awesomeness - Ben Tate RB
(154) Bow To Me - Brandon Lloyd WR
(155) Hernandez end Not so tight - Matt Prater K
(156) Team Conway - Steven Hauschka K
(157) GridIron Dogz - Michael Bush RB
** (158) Beans And Mash - Dan Bailey K
(159) GridIron Great - Cowboys D/ST D/ST
(160) Team moyer - Phil Dawson K
It's the last round. Just get a good kicker on a good team.
Things learned from this mock draft:
1. QB is very, very deep this year. I would say that unless Rodgers falls to you, wait to take a QB. RG3 is going to be available late due to the uncertainty about his injury so you could just get him late and grab a decent QB to fill in the first couple weeks if it comes to that. Even though I wanted to find one earlier, I was able to get a pretty decent QB in the 9th round, and also saw Big Ben go in the 10th. That's better than normal depth due to the breakout rookie seasons enjoyed by RG3, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck. Along with Kaepernick's stellar second half of the year, it has made this QB class very deep. Wait if you can on QB.
2. RB is very, very shallow this year. The names are still the same, but questions are abound. Can Doug Martin repeat his phenomenal rookie year? What about Alfred Morris? Will Trent Richardson be healthy? Can rookies Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball perform well like people are predicting? The only true sure bets I see in this running back class are AP, Foster, and Lynch. The rest have either injury questions, are on a new team, are rookies, or have a terrible offense around them. I'm sure several of these backs and probably ones off the radar will emerge, I'm just not sure who.
3. The number one pick is very desirable this year. Some years, there is no clear cut number one so the first overall can actually be a curse because you have to wait longer even though your selected player might be worth the 5th overall pick by the end of the year. Take last year for example. Rodgers was the popular number one pick, but if someone had gone with Foster or Rice or even McCoy, it would not have been that much of a shock. This year anyone who doesn't take AP number one will be run out of town. Also, when looking at the players available when you would pick next, the players are pretty good. In this draft, the person with the number one pick went Brandon Marshall-Julio Jones with his second and third picks; two elite WRs guaranteed to put up numbers. This is the year you want that first pick.
4. Mock drafts can be helpful. Honestly, if you have the time, just go into one on ESPN. There's plenty there and people are doing them all the time. You can quit at any time so just play out the first few rounds and see how it goes. See who is going where and what players will be available if you get a certain pick. In my opinion, I think the most favorable positions this year are numbers 1, 3, and 7. Obviously each draft will play out differently, but those are the three that seem to have the best options of players available when you pick.
5. If you read through this whole thing, I thank you. I know it was a lot, but that's fantasy football. There's more to come as I'll do a team by team breakdown as we get closer to the start of the season just like last year. I'll probably also do another one of these for my real league when we draft. Hopefully you play this year and have fun doing it.
6. If you're in my league this year, everything you just read was complete B.S. Don't believe it. Feel free to draft any combination of Aaron Hernandez, Tim Tebow, and Mark Sanchez with your first three picks.
My complete drafted team
QB - Eli Manning
RB - Marshawn Lynch
RB - Steven Jackson
WR - Andre Johnson
WR - Wes Welker
TE - Fred Davis
FLEX - Maurice Jones-Drew
K - Dan Bailey
D/ST - Steelers
BN - Sam Bradford
BN - DeAngelo Williams
BN - Pierre Garcon
BN - Shane Vareen
BN - Reggie Wayne
BN - Mike Williams
BN - James Jones
Matty O
Thursday, July 11, 2013
The (Potential) Biggest Three Of Them All
Big Three. It is now a term that has become synonymous with winning in the NBA. It used to not be that way. Two was all you used to need. The Jordan era Bulls were mainly Michael and Scottie Pippen, although you could argue a Big Three was formed when Dennis Rodman joined the party. Still, Rodman was only there for the second three peat, never went to an All-Star game while playing for the Bulls, and also had less rebounds per game all three years than when he was with the Spurs and Pistons previously. Shaq and Kobe did it together early in the 2000s, as Shaq won another title when he teamed up with Dwayne Wade in Miami. The Spurs found their "Big Two" in Tim Duncan and David Robinson, who was at the end of his career.
This isn't to say that this is the only way to win a title. The Mavs a couple years ago really only had Dirk, supporting players, and a lot of heart. The Pistons back in 2004 had a Big Zero, because at the time, they had no superstar. Now the starting five from that team are well known names (Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, and Rip Hamilton), but back then it was a shock that they were able to win the title. It just seems like nowadays, NBA teams are leaning more towards stacking their roster and going all in on three or four superstars, rather than having one or two superstars and investing in real role players (Ron Harper, Robert Horry, Jason Terry come to mind).
This whole Big Three phenomenon happened back in 2007 when Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett decided to come over from Seattle and Minnesota, respectively, to join Paul Pierce in Boston. They were all playing at a very high level when they decided to team up and won an NBA Title in 2008, and were a constant threat in the playoffs. The next big splash when it came to creating a "Super Team" was the Miami Heat. It all started during the summer of 2010 in one of the most sought after free agent classes in history.
The big prize to land was LeBron James, with multiple teams vying for his services. To this day, not even being a homer here, I still think Chicago would have been the better place to go. I know the Heat have now won back to back titles, but I believe that had he gone to Chicago, his dream of winning "not five, not six, not seven..." could have come true. Here's how I wish it would have gone down. Dwayne Wade was also a free agent that summer and has a home, family, and roots in Chicago. He would have been enticed enough to come to an up and coming Bulls squad. LeBron would follow the talent and join Wade in Chicago. Now you would have Wade, James, Derrick Rose, and Noah all on the court, and all under 30 years old. It would have given LeBron two things that he has never had in his career; a true point guard in Rose and a productive big man in Noah. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, LeBron, Wade, and Chris Bosh decided to take their talents to South Beach. The Bulls had to "settle" for Carlos Boozer (that's how good that free agent class was) and the rest is history. After being upset by the Mavs in their first attempt to win a title, the Heat scorched the Thunder last year and won by the hairs on LeBron's goatee this year over the Spurs. Coincidentally, this Heat team and LeBron James could be the key piece in potentially the Biggest Three of them all. Also, for LeBron, this would start where it all began.
The big free agent news in the NBA recently was the Cleveland Cavaliers signing Andrew Bynum. It's a two year deal, but the second year is a team option to pick up. Remember, this is a potential Big Three. I understand that there is a good chance Bynum either won't be productive or won't even play. Still, if he can stay healthy and go back to his 2011-2012 playing days when he was an All-Star and averaged a double double, this Cavs team has the potential to be something special. They already have two excellent draft picks in Kyrie Irving (One time All-Star and Rookie of the Year) and Dion Waiters (NBA All-Rookie First Team this past year). Add on this year's number one pick Anthony Bennett (although I disagreed with the selection) and you have an abundance of young talent. For this mega-team to take place, however, two things must happen.
The first thing is that Bynum must be productive. The Cavs were smart in structuring his contract as they offered little guaranteed money and the option to terminate the contract if the first year does not work out. He missed all of last year and has struggled with injury problems his entire career, playing the full 82 games only once. Still, he's a true seven footer and takes up space in the post. We've seen flashes of his great play in the past and, when healthy, I believe he can be one of the top five big men in the game. I think, at least for the first year, the Cavs are looking for solid production. He doesn't need to put up All-Star numbers, but if he can play in the majority of their games, and maybe get the Cavs into the playoffs as an eight seed, the I think they will keep him around. His performance this year might also influence the next thing that must happen, LeBron James coming back to Cleveland.
Let's face it, this is a bit of a long shot. Along with Bynum doing well, I think the Heat must not win a title this upcoming season, and Dwayne Wade's health needs to decline in order for James to leave. James becomes a free agent in 2014 and it seems that time has healed some wounds. This fan had no problem letting LeBron know how he felt in a game between the Heat and Cavs earlier this year in Cleveland. That was a picture of a fan who had come on the court, rushed LeBron, and essentially asked him to return to his home. Obviously feelings changed after The Decision, but prior to that there was nothing but love for LeBron in Cleveland. Given the heartbreak and losing that the city has endured with the Indians, Browns, and Cavs, I still argue that one title in Cleveland would be worth more than 10 in Miami. That's one reason I was a bit surprised he left in the first place.
LeBron seems to be about not only winning, but building a legacy. And rightfully so. He's the best player in the game and has been often compared to the greats who have played this game. Bringing a title to Cleveland would have greatly strengthened, if not cemented his legacy. It would be like a star pitcher winning a World Series for the Cubs or a star quarterback winning a Super Bowl for the Bills. All titles are not the same, and a title for the Cavs would have done wonders for LeBron's status and legacy. He had already led them to the Finals before with just him, so I still don't understand why it was so hard for him to attract another superstar to come play with him to win a title (Shaq doesn't count, he was past his prime). Regardless, imagine the possibilities if he comes back.
You would have Irving running the point, who would only be 22 by next summer with three years of NBA experience under his belt. There would be Dion Waiters on the wing who would also only be 22 with two years experience. Then, if Bynum is still around, you would have a former All-Star center who would only be 26 years old with seven seasons of NBA experience (not counting last year). Then, you would throw in James who would still be south of 30 by this time next year (29) with 11 years of NBA experience, two titles, and multiple playoff runs. Now that's a squad right there. Just imagine if Anthony Bennett develops into anything by the time next season rolls around. While I labelled this a Big Three with Irving, Bynum, and James, this could certainly be the first Big Five depending on what happens (although it seems the Nets are trying to do that this year).
Lots of dominoes have to fall into place for this dream scenario to happen. Bynum's health, Wade's health, and the Heat's performance are the main issues here. All I know is that if the Cavs super team is formed, given their ages, we could truly be talking not five, not six, not seven, not eight...
Matty O
This isn't to say that this is the only way to win a title. The Mavs a couple years ago really only had Dirk, supporting players, and a lot of heart. The Pistons back in 2004 had a Big Zero, because at the time, they had no superstar. Now the starting five from that team are well known names (Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, and Rip Hamilton), but back then it was a shock that they were able to win the title. It just seems like nowadays, NBA teams are leaning more towards stacking their roster and going all in on three or four superstars, rather than having one or two superstars and investing in real role players (Ron Harper, Robert Horry, Jason Terry come to mind).
This whole Big Three phenomenon happened back in 2007 when Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett decided to come over from Seattle and Minnesota, respectively, to join Paul Pierce in Boston. They were all playing at a very high level when they decided to team up and won an NBA Title in 2008, and were a constant threat in the playoffs. The next big splash when it came to creating a "Super Team" was the Miami Heat. It all started during the summer of 2010 in one of the most sought after free agent classes in history.
The big prize to land was LeBron James, with multiple teams vying for his services. To this day, not even being a homer here, I still think Chicago would have been the better place to go. I know the Heat have now won back to back titles, but I believe that had he gone to Chicago, his dream of winning "not five, not six, not seven..." could have come true. Here's how I wish it would have gone down. Dwayne Wade was also a free agent that summer and has a home, family, and roots in Chicago. He would have been enticed enough to come to an up and coming Bulls squad. LeBron would follow the talent and join Wade in Chicago. Now you would have Wade, James, Derrick Rose, and Noah all on the court, and all under 30 years old. It would have given LeBron two things that he has never had in his career; a true point guard in Rose and a productive big man in Noah. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, LeBron, Wade, and Chris Bosh decided to take their talents to South Beach. The Bulls had to "settle" for Carlos Boozer (that's how good that free agent class was) and the rest is history. After being upset by the Mavs in their first attempt to win a title, the Heat scorched the Thunder last year and won by the hairs on LeBron's goatee this year over the Spurs. Coincidentally, this Heat team and LeBron James could be the key piece in potentially the Biggest Three of them all. Also, for LeBron, this would start where it all began.
The big free agent news in the NBA recently was the Cleveland Cavaliers signing Andrew Bynum. It's a two year deal, but the second year is a team option to pick up. Remember, this is a potential Big Three. I understand that there is a good chance Bynum either won't be productive or won't even play. Still, if he can stay healthy and go back to his 2011-2012 playing days when he was an All-Star and averaged a double double, this Cavs team has the potential to be something special. They already have two excellent draft picks in Kyrie Irving (One time All-Star and Rookie of the Year) and Dion Waiters (NBA All-Rookie First Team this past year). Add on this year's number one pick Anthony Bennett (although I disagreed with the selection) and you have an abundance of young talent. For this mega-team to take place, however, two things must happen.
The first thing is that Bynum must be productive. The Cavs were smart in structuring his contract as they offered little guaranteed money and the option to terminate the contract if the first year does not work out. He missed all of last year and has struggled with injury problems his entire career, playing the full 82 games only once. Still, he's a true seven footer and takes up space in the post. We've seen flashes of his great play in the past and, when healthy, I believe he can be one of the top five big men in the game. I think, at least for the first year, the Cavs are looking for solid production. He doesn't need to put up All-Star numbers, but if he can play in the majority of their games, and maybe get the Cavs into the playoffs as an eight seed, the I think they will keep him around. His performance this year might also influence the next thing that must happen, LeBron James coming back to Cleveland.
Let's face it, this is a bit of a long shot. Along with Bynum doing well, I think the Heat must not win a title this upcoming season, and Dwayne Wade's health needs to decline in order for James to leave. James becomes a free agent in 2014 and it seems that time has healed some wounds. This fan had no problem letting LeBron know how he felt in a game between the Heat and Cavs earlier this year in Cleveland. That was a picture of a fan who had come on the court, rushed LeBron, and essentially asked him to return to his home. Obviously feelings changed after The Decision, but prior to that there was nothing but love for LeBron in Cleveland. Given the heartbreak and losing that the city has endured with the Indians, Browns, and Cavs, I still argue that one title in Cleveland would be worth more than 10 in Miami. That's one reason I was a bit surprised he left in the first place.
LeBron seems to be about not only winning, but building a legacy. And rightfully so. He's the best player in the game and has been often compared to the greats who have played this game. Bringing a title to Cleveland would have greatly strengthened, if not cemented his legacy. It would be like a star pitcher winning a World Series for the Cubs or a star quarterback winning a Super Bowl for the Bills. All titles are not the same, and a title for the Cavs would have done wonders for LeBron's status and legacy. He had already led them to the Finals before with just him, so I still don't understand why it was so hard for him to attract another superstar to come play with him to win a title (Shaq doesn't count, he was past his prime). Regardless, imagine the possibilities if he comes back.
You would have Irving running the point, who would only be 22 by next summer with three years of NBA experience under his belt. There would be Dion Waiters on the wing who would also only be 22 with two years experience. Then, if Bynum is still around, you would have a former All-Star center who would only be 26 years old with seven seasons of NBA experience (not counting last year). Then, you would throw in James who would still be south of 30 by this time next year (29) with 11 years of NBA experience, two titles, and multiple playoff runs. Now that's a squad right there. Just imagine if Anthony Bennett develops into anything by the time next season rolls around. While I labelled this a Big Three with Irving, Bynum, and James, this could certainly be the first Big Five depending on what happens (although it seems the Nets are trying to do that this year).
Lots of dominoes have to fall into place for this dream scenario to happen. Bynum's health, Wade's health, and the Heat's performance are the main issues here. All I know is that if the Cavs super team is formed, given their ages, we could truly be talking not five, not six, not seven, not eight...
Matty O
Saturday, July 6, 2013
ESPYS 2013 Edition
The ESPYS, recognizing achievement in sports, is July 19th at 9pm ET on ESPN. I figured I'd cover the major categories and let you know who I think should win. Also, you can vote here to have your voice be heard for this year's ESPYS.
Best Male Athlete
Nominees: Miguel Cabrera, LeBron James, Adrian Peterson, Michael Phelps
Winner: Miguel Cabrera
I feel like Lebron and AP will be the front runners for this category and will probably win it, but anyone that accomplishes a feat that has not been done since 1967 (Triple Crown) gets my vote. He led the Tigers to the World Series last year and as of today, has them in first place in their division. All four men certainly deserve recognition, but I think the Tigers' slugger should win this award with his Triple Crown and AL MVP wins.
Best Female Athlete
Nominees: Gabby Douglas, Missy Franklin, Brittney Griner, Serena Williams
Winner: Brittney Griner
Griner, the talented Baylor women's basketball player, made news on and off the court this season. On the court, she led the Bears to a 34-2 record, albeit ending in a surprise upset at the hands of Louisville in the Sweet 16. She averaged 23.8 points per game and a ridiculous 7.8 blocks per game. By comparison, Nerlens Noel, the great defensive player for Kentucky was only averaging 4.4 blocks per game before his injury. She set the record for most career blocks for men or women with 736. She was drafted first overall in the WNBA draft and went on to become the first WNBA player to dunk twice in the same game. Off the court, she became a notable athlete to come out as gay back in April this year.
Best Team
Nominees: US Women's Gymnastics, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Blackhawks, Miami Heat, Alabama Football, Baltimore Ravens, Oklahoma Softball
Winner: Alabama Football
This category is always tough because a) every team can claim they won a title so then it really comes down to comparing and contrasting the difficulty of the sports and opponents they faced and b) the timing of the ESPYS (normally in July) give the NHL and NBA champs favoritism because of the recency effect. It is because of this that I would like to remind my readers how truly dominant Alabama football was this year. They finished the year 13-1 and spent nine weeks as the number one team in the nation, which is an eternity in this day and age. They also did all this while playing in the hardest conference in the country (SEC). The faced six ranked teams with only two of them coming at home. Their only blemish was to Texas A&M, led by the eventual Heisman winning quarterback Johnny Manziel. They pulverized teams including a 41-14 beatdown of Michigan to start the year, a 38-7 romp of Mississippi State (ranked #13 at the time), and the 42-14 thrashing of Notre Dame in the title game. They had three players selected in the top 11 picks of the NFL draft, with eight players being selected overall. While this team might not have been as flashy as others on this list, I believe they were the most dominant.
Best Comeback
Nominees: Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Mariano Rivera, Buster Posey
Winner: Adrian Peterson
Is this really even a question? Yes, the other three could make an argument, but AP would probably run right through that too. To come back from an ACL injury in December, start the first week of the season, and come up nine yards shy of breaking the single season rushing record is mind boggling. It makes it even more impressive that everyone and their grandma knew AP would get the ball when the Vikings were on offense. They had a below average quarterback and limited receiving weapons. Teams would stack nine in the box and he would still break off 60+ yard runs. This category, unfortunately for the other nominees, is a forgone conclusion. If you're in Vegas and want to win some money, go all in on AP for this category.
Best Breakthrough Athlete
Nominees: Colin Kaepernick, Johnny Manziel, Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig, Russell Wilson
Winner: Colin Kaepernick
This is probably the toughest category to call because in any other year, any one of them could have won. My thinking is that Manziel and Trout couldn't lead their teams to the title games/series in their respective sports, and Puig has simply become a sensation too quickly. If his pace continues and the Dodgers make a run, then he should certainly win it next year. Kaepernick did make it all the way to the Super Bowl, and were it not for a non-pass interference call, might have won it. Kaepernick went 5-2-1 to end the regular season, and continued his magic against Green Bay in the playoffs as well as a tough comeback against the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. His Super Bowl numbers were nothing to sneeze at either as he passed for 302 yards, ran for another 62, with two total touchdowns and one interception. Expect huge years from these guys in the future, but as for the present, gotta give it to Kaepernick.
Best Championship Performance
Nominees: Joe Flacco, LeBron James, Brad Keselowski, Pablo Sandoval
Winner: LeBron James
Another fairly easy category to choose, no offense to the other nominees. Although this award goes to the best championship performance, I think all you needed to know about LeBron happened in the last two games. The Heat were on the ropes down three to two and, despite getting both games at home, had to feel that the momentum had shifted San Antonio's way. LeBron responded in a big way in Game 6 recording a triple double (32 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds) in an instant classic which the Heat won 103-100 in OT. That was arguably his best performance short of the 2007 Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Detroit Pistons. Game 7 was more of the same as he went for 37 points and 12 boards to clinch back to back titles for the Heat.
Best Game
Nominees: Bruins vs Leafs Game Seven, Heat vs Spurs Game Six, Ravens vs Broncos AFC Divisional Playoffs
Winner: Bruins vs Leafs
While the other two games were exciting, this one had the unthinkable. First off, it was Game Seven in Boston between two Original Six teams. That's awesome enough. What happened at the end, however, was truly remarkable. The Bruins trailed by three midway through the final period of play 4-1. The Leafs had dominated the play and looked poised to wrap up the series. Even when Nathan Horton scored around the nine minute mark to make it 4-2, you still felt like the Bruins were done. Then, with about a minute and 30 seconds left, Milan Lucic scores to make it a one goal game. With the goalie pulled and the crowd on the edge of their seat, leader and alternate captain Patrice Bergeron put away the game tying goal with less than a minute left. Fast forward to overtime, where Bergeron would strike again to send the Bruins to the next round. They used this energy to propel them to the Stanley Cup Finals, where ironically, they were beat in Game 6 by two goals scored with about a minute and 30 seconds left to play and another scored with less than a minute left.
Side note: I know there are a lot of great games and maybe they could only select three, but my personal favorite from this past year was Michigan vs Kansas in the NCAA Tourney. The number one seed vs the eventual title runner up. Trey Burke hitting that long, monster three to tie the game and send it to overtime was as good as it gets. That game, honestly, would've been my pick over any of these three.
Best Upset
Nominees: Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown, Texas A&M over Alabama, Louisville over Baylor (women's basketball), Juan Marquez over Manny Pacquiao
Winner: Marquez over Manny
The other three are worthy, but college basketball tournament upsets happen all the time and Texas A&M was ranked #15 at the time. This was Manny's first loss since 1999! Pacquiao has long been considered one of, if not the best, pound for pound fighter in the world today. Although he had already beat Marquez twice and drew with him once, his last victory came with controversy as many believed that Marquez won the fight, but the judges gave it to Pacquiao. Still, Pacquiao was certainly the heavy favorite going into the fight, but was dropped in the sixth round by Marquez in a stunning upset. With back to back losses on his record, perhaps we are witnessing the end of the Pacquiao era.
Best Moment
Nominees: Jack Hoffman, Alex Morgan, Andy Murray, Chuck Pagano
Winner: Chuck Pagano
All of them were great moments so it was hard to choose one, but head coach of the Indianapolis Colts Chuck Pagano gets my vote. Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia after week 3, causing him to leave the team to seek medical attention. This after the Colts started the year 1-2 including a loss to Jacksonville with a rookie QB in Andrew Luck. Coming out of their bye week, however, the Colts were inspired by their coach and "ChuckStrong" signs and posters were all around Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts used this momentum to go 10-3 the rest of the year and make the playoffs, with Pagano able to return to the team in Week 17 and knock off the Houston Texans.
Matty O
Best Male Athlete
Nominees: Miguel Cabrera, LeBron James, Adrian Peterson, Michael Phelps
Winner: Miguel Cabrera
I feel like Lebron and AP will be the front runners for this category and will probably win it, but anyone that accomplishes a feat that has not been done since 1967 (Triple Crown) gets my vote. He led the Tigers to the World Series last year and as of today, has them in first place in their division. All four men certainly deserve recognition, but I think the Tigers' slugger should win this award with his Triple Crown and AL MVP wins.
Best Female Athlete
Nominees: Gabby Douglas, Missy Franklin, Brittney Griner, Serena Williams
Winner: Brittney Griner
Griner, the talented Baylor women's basketball player, made news on and off the court this season. On the court, she led the Bears to a 34-2 record, albeit ending in a surprise upset at the hands of Louisville in the Sweet 16. She averaged 23.8 points per game and a ridiculous 7.8 blocks per game. By comparison, Nerlens Noel, the great defensive player for Kentucky was only averaging 4.4 blocks per game before his injury. She set the record for most career blocks for men or women with 736. She was drafted first overall in the WNBA draft and went on to become the first WNBA player to dunk twice in the same game. Off the court, she became a notable athlete to come out as gay back in April this year.
Best Team
Nominees: US Women's Gymnastics, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Blackhawks, Miami Heat, Alabama Football, Baltimore Ravens, Oklahoma Softball
Winner: Alabama Football
This category is always tough because a) every team can claim they won a title so then it really comes down to comparing and contrasting the difficulty of the sports and opponents they faced and b) the timing of the ESPYS (normally in July) give the NHL and NBA champs favoritism because of the recency effect. It is because of this that I would like to remind my readers how truly dominant Alabama football was this year. They finished the year 13-1 and spent nine weeks as the number one team in the nation, which is an eternity in this day and age. They also did all this while playing in the hardest conference in the country (SEC). The faced six ranked teams with only two of them coming at home. Their only blemish was to Texas A&M, led by the eventual Heisman winning quarterback Johnny Manziel. They pulverized teams including a 41-14 beatdown of Michigan to start the year, a 38-7 romp of Mississippi State (ranked #13 at the time), and the 42-14 thrashing of Notre Dame in the title game. They had three players selected in the top 11 picks of the NFL draft, with eight players being selected overall. While this team might not have been as flashy as others on this list, I believe they were the most dominant.
Best Comeback
Nominees: Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Mariano Rivera, Buster Posey
Winner: Adrian Peterson
Is this really even a question? Yes, the other three could make an argument, but AP would probably run right through that too. To come back from an ACL injury in December, start the first week of the season, and come up nine yards shy of breaking the single season rushing record is mind boggling. It makes it even more impressive that everyone and their grandma knew AP would get the ball when the Vikings were on offense. They had a below average quarterback and limited receiving weapons. Teams would stack nine in the box and he would still break off 60+ yard runs. This category, unfortunately for the other nominees, is a forgone conclusion. If you're in Vegas and want to win some money, go all in on AP for this category.
Best Breakthrough Athlete
Nominees: Colin Kaepernick, Johnny Manziel, Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig, Russell Wilson
Winner: Colin Kaepernick
This is probably the toughest category to call because in any other year, any one of them could have won. My thinking is that Manziel and Trout couldn't lead their teams to the title games/series in their respective sports, and Puig has simply become a sensation too quickly. If his pace continues and the Dodgers make a run, then he should certainly win it next year. Kaepernick did make it all the way to the Super Bowl, and were it not for a non-pass interference call, might have won it. Kaepernick went 5-2-1 to end the regular season, and continued his magic against Green Bay in the playoffs as well as a tough comeback against the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. His Super Bowl numbers were nothing to sneeze at either as he passed for 302 yards, ran for another 62, with two total touchdowns and one interception. Expect huge years from these guys in the future, but as for the present, gotta give it to Kaepernick.
Best Championship Performance
Nominees: Joe Flacco, LeBron James, Brad Keselowski, Pablo Sandoval
Winner: LeBron James
Another fairly easy category to choose, no offense to the other nominees. Although this award goes to the best championship performance, I think all you needed to know about LeBron happened in the last two games. The Heat were on the ropes down three to two and, despite getting both games at home, had to feel that the momentum had shifted San Antonio's way. LeBron responded in a big way in Game 6 recording a triple double (32 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds) in an instant classic which the Heat won 103-100 in OT. That was arguably his best performance short of the 2007 Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Detroit Pistons. Game 7 was more of the same as he went for 37 points and 12 boards to clinch back to back titles for the Heat.
Best Game
Nominees: Bruins vs Leafs Game Seven, Heat vs Spurs Game Six, Ravens vs Broncos AFC Divisional Playoffs
Winner: Bruins vs Leafs
While the other two games were exciting, this one had the unthinkable. First off, it was Game Seven in Boston between two Original Six teams. That's awesome enough. What happened at the end, however, was truly remarkable. The Bruins trailed by three midway through the final period of play 4-1. The Leafs had dominated the play and looked poised to wrap up the series. Even when Nathan Horton scored around the nine minute mark to make it 4-2, you still felt like the Bruins were done. Then, with about a minute and 30 seconds left, Milan Lucic scores to make it a one goal game. With the goalie pulled and the crowd on the edge of their seat, leader and alternate captain Patrice Bergeron put away the game tying goal with less than a minute left. Fast forward to overtime, where Bergeron would strike again to send the Bruins to the next round. They used this energy to propel them to the Stanley Cup Finals, where ironically, they were beat in Game 6 by two goals scored with about a minute and 30 seconds left to play and another scored with less than a minute left.
Side note: I know there are a lot of great games and maybe they could only select three, but my personal favorite from this past year was Michigan vs Kansas in the NCAA Tourney. The number one seed vs the eventual title runner up. Trey Burke hitting that long, monster three to tie the game and send it to overtime was as good as it gets. That game, honestly, would've been my pick over any of these three.
Best Upset
Nominees: Florida Gulf Coast over Georgetown, Texas A&M over Alabama, Louisville over Baylor (women's basketball), Juan Marquez over Manny Pacquiao
Winner: Marquez over Manny
The other three are worthy, but college basketball tournament upsets happen all the time and Texas A&M was ranked #15 at the time. This was Manny's first loss since 1999! Pacquiao has long been considered one of, if not the best, pound for pound fighter in the world today. Although he had already beat Marquez twice and drew with him once, his last victory came with controversy as many believed that Marquez won the fight, but the judges gave it to Pacquiao. Still, Pacquiao was certainly the heavy favorite going into the fight, but was dropped in the sixth round by Marquez in a stunning upset. With back to back losses on his record, perhaps we are witnessing the end of the Pacquiao era.
Best Moment
Nominees: Jack Hoffman, Alex Morgan, Andy Murray, Chuck Pagano
Winner: Chuck Pagano
All of them were great moments so it was hard to choose one, but head coach of the Indianapolis Colts Chuck Pagano gets my vote. Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia after week 3, causing him to leave the team to seek medical attention. This after the Colts started the year 1-2 including a loss to Jacksonville with a rookie QB in Andrew Luck. Coming out of their bye week, however, the Colts were inspired by their coach and "ChuckStrong" signs and posters were all around Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts used this momentum to go 10-3 the rest of the year and make the playoffs, with Pagano able to return to the team in Week 17 and knock off the Houston Texans.
Matty O
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