The Matty O Fantasy Breakdown series is back, 2013 edition. Like last year, I'll go through each division, team by team, and let you know who I think are the busts, sleepers, studs, and overall assessment of the team fantasy wise. Again, no set dates, but every team should be analyzed by the time your draft rolls around (first regular season game is Thursday, September 5th). Order will be NFC West, AFC West, NFC North, AFC North, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East.
St. Louis Rams
Studs: None
Unfortunately, the Rams lost the only stud they had last year in running back Steven Jackson. Kicker Greg Zuerlein probably could have wound up on this list if he had kept up his ridiculous numbers from the start of the year. He posted 13 points in Week 1, 12 in Week 2, 18 in Week 4, and 11 in Week 7. After Week 7, however, he never got to double digits again and put up four one point games. He certainly has a boot, but his accuracy is in question.
Bust: None
At least getting rid of your only stud leaves the bust category empty. The only Ram that could even be considered for this category would be Tavon Austin, but I actually think he's going to do pretty well.
Sleeper: Jared Cook, TE
Cook has the potential to be one of the biggest sleepers in fantasy this year. With limited "sure things" at the tight end position this year, Cook offers tremendous upside for the Rams. The fact that he is currently the 11th rated tight end and projected at being selected 115th overall on ESPN, means you should be able to get him late instead of using an early pick on the likes of Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. Cook should help quarterback Sam Bradford out in the short passing game, now that Jackson is gone. His athleticism is the most attractive aspect here, as he really never did anything that eye popping in Tennessee. Still, Bradford is a better QB than the likes of Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker, and having speedy wideouts Austin and Chris Givens should help open up the middle for Cook to roam free.
Bottom Line:
The Rams may have the most potential of any team, but will be hard pressed to prove it. Austin, Cook, and Bradford all have a chance to do well, if they take advantage of it. Even though Jackson is gone, it does open up the door for either Isaiah Pead or Daryl Richardson to step up. The addition of Jake Long should help the offense as a whole, so the upside is there. The downside is that their best back is gone, they have three of the best defenses in the league in their division, and none of these players have proven capable of putting up monster seasons in the NFL. Based on where all these players are projected, however, St. Louis might be the team to look at if you're looking for value.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense and Special Teams
Lynch, aka Beast Mode, has arisen to be projected as the third overall pick in fantasy drafts this year. He played all 16 games last year (the only time he's ever done that), ran for 1,590 yards with 12 total TDs, and has no real competition for his starting job, which is a rarity for backs entering 2013. He is a workhorse back that has the potential to break one on any play. Unlike other backs like Matt Forte, CJ Spiller, and Darren Sproles, Lynch is big enough that he stays in the game for goal line carries, helping him to average nearly 20 carries per game last year. You won't get the same kind of receiving production as you will from those backs, so his value certainly decreases in PPR leagues, put he'll still post solid numbers and should be taken at least in the top 5, probably the top 3.
Put as one of my sleepers last year, the Seahawks defense and special teams (D/ST) unit went ballistic posting eight double digit games, including a 40 pointer against the Cardinals in Week 14. Their secondary is an absolute nightmare for teams to face, led by outspoken cornerback Richard Sherman. They were able to keep all their key defensive players from last year, and the three teams they recorded zero points against last year (Patriots, Lions, Bears) are not on their schedule this year. The offenses in their division have improved, but I believe a great defense trumps a great offense every time. While I don't advise reaching for defenses (as evidenced in my Mock Draft article), this should be one of the first ones off the board.
Bust: Sidney Rice, WR
This is more of a warning than a true bust pick, because I do think he will put up okay numbers this year. Still, he has recently gained a lot of hype now that Percy Harvin will be out for nearly the entire season, and will probably move up in the projections once your draft hits. This is a player that has struggled with injuries throughout his career, and was one of the reasons why Minnesota was so willing to part with him. The Seahawks, as evidenced by Lynch's nearly 20 carries per game number, do not like to throw the ball. Whether it's quarterback Russell Wilson's limited arm, their lack of depth at WR, or Lynch's running ability, passing is just not a big part of their offense. This was evidenced last year when Rice was healthy and Harvin was not on the Seahawks. Rice only had five double digit games, never topped 100 yards, and never caught more than six passes. Maybe they open it up this year now that Wilson is in his second year, but anyone expecting Rice to put up the numbers he did in 2009 with the Vikings will be disappointed.
Sleeper: None
Kind of a cop out here I know, but I look at their roster and I think everyone will either be a bust or perform pretty much where they are projected. Wilson would be a popular sleeper for this team, but I think he's more prone to a bad year than an extremely productive one. Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin, their other receivers, will be limited by the lack of pass attempts and Rice's presence. I doubt Zach Miller starts playing up to his Oakland Raider days, and the other RBs are limited by Lynch's Beast Mode ability.
Bottom Line:
The Seahawks, similar to teams like the Vikings, Bears, and Browns (just to name a few off the top of my head), will be very fantasy top heavy this year. You'll get a lot of production from one or two players or units, but it's really a crap shoot to predict who will pick up the rest of the points. The key here is to feel safe with Lynch and the D/ST, be wary of Rice hype, and don't expect a surprising Doug Martin-esque breakthrough by anyone on this team.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
Yes, he did have a bad 2012, but any receiver with the likes of John Skelton and Kevin Kolb is going to have suppressed numbers. Fitzgerald now gets Carson Palmer behind center. While Palmer is no Aaron Rodgers, he is certainly an upgrade over Kolb and Skelton and should be able to get the ball to Fitzgerald with more regularity. He is currently the 11th rated receiver, ahead of the likes of Andre Johnson and Randall Cobb; both of whom I think will have worse seasons than Fitzgerald. He is a talented enough player that even a slight upgrade at the QB position should bring him back into fantasy relevance.
Bust: Andre Roberts, WR
Roberts was a popular pick up last year after posting three double digit games in the first seven weeks of the season, including a 23 pointer in Week 4 against Miami. And rightfully so. Believe it or not, he actually finished ahead of Fitzgerald in total fantasy points last year (100 to 99). So why is he a bust? A couple reasons. First off, apart from those three games, he did very little. He posted one more double digit game, but also tallied two zeroes and two ones. I also think that Michael Floyd will develop into the Cards number two option after Fitz, while Roberts drops to the third slot. Additionally, while I mentioned that Fitz will have a better year, that does not mean the receiving corps as a whole will. Yes, Palmer is in town, but I expect him to feed the ball to Fitz as much as possible leaving little opportunities for both Roberts and Floyd. He's also currently higher than Rueben Randle, Ryan Broyles, and Vincent Brown who should all have better seasons than Roberts.
Sleeper: Rashard Mendenhall, RB
Maybe a little U of I bias here, but someone has to run the ball for this team. Beanie Wells is finally gone, and the oft injured Ryan Williams is Mendenhall's only real competition. Mendenhall is not exactly a picture of health himself coming off a disappointing season where he tried to come back from an ACL injury, but couldn't put it together. Now he gets a fresh start with a new team, albeit behind a questionable offensive line. I don't think he gets his production based on skill, but rather the sheer volume of carries he will get. As long as he stays healthy, I expect him to see the majority of carries in this offense and give Williams high odds to get injured again. Mendenhall certainly shouldn't be your drafted number one or two RB, but having him as a FLEX or waiting to see if he develops into a RB2 is an enticing scenario.
Bottom Line:
Larry, Larry, Larry. He's really the only sure thing on this squad, as the Cards have limited upside as an organization as a whole. A running back will emerge from the pack, but as previously mentioned, the ceiling is probably only a RB2 and even that is an ambitious prediction. Grab Fitz, ignore the rest, unless you're stuck deciding between Palmer and Tim Tebow.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Frank Gore, RB, Colin Kaepernick, QB, D/ST
Gore moves from the bust category last year to the stud category this year, mainly because he put to rest the injury questions that had surrounded him throughout his career. He played all 16 games, including every playoff game and the Super Bowl. Along the way, he racked up over 1200 yards and nine total TDs in the regular season. Another encouraging sign was that once Kaep took over at QB, he had single digits only twice; once against the Bears and once against the Seahawks. Given how strong those defenses were, I'll give him a pass. LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter are certainly lurking to take carries, but I've become a Gore believer now. He's a decent RB1, solid RB2.
Kaep took the league by storm following Week 10 after Alex Smith suffered an injury. There was speculation once Smith was healthy of whether he would go back to the veteran, or stick with Kaep. Personally, I thought he should go back to Smith and still contend they might have made the Super Bowl with Smith at the helm. But that's not the point. The point is Kaep developed into a legitimate fantasy QB, with his passing and particularly running skills. He ran for 415 yards and 5 TDs last year while leading the 49ers to the second overall seed in the NFC and a division title. His running ability not only makes him a threat to put up big fantasy numbers, but also helps to cover for his bad passing games. In Week 13 in St. Louis, he threw for 208 yards, zero TDs, and a fumble lost. Terrible fantasy day for a QB right? Well, thanks to his 84 yards rushing he still got double digit fantasy points. With a full year to work with, expect Kaep to put up big numbers as long as he's healthy.
What more can be said about this D/ST unit? They ranked in the top 4 last year in points against, rushing yards against, passing yards against, and points against. They finished 9th in takeaways last year (pretty low for a group this talented) and still put up seven double digit point games last year. They lost Dashon Goldson to the Bucs in free agency, but drafted safety Eric Reid in the first round and defensive end Tank Carradine in the second of this year's draft. While Carradine will probably see limited time and be only used to sub out tired linemen, I think Reid will have a solid rookie year and contribute to this defense's reputation. Expect a strong year from this group as they should be one of the top three defenses off the board. Also, having LaMichael James as a returner isn't bad either.
Bust: None
Similar to my reasoning in the Seahawks' sleeper section, I think everyone on the 49ers either plays to their draft position or is in line for a sleeper season, not a bust season. Gore was here last year, but that was due to me worrying about him holding up over the long haul. Since he did, who else would you put here? The studs I've covered, Vernon Davis is where he needs to be if not lower than he should be, their receivers are relatively low so I don't really see a bust here. Injuries could always make anyone a bust, but if the 49ers stay healthy, I don't see anyone on this team regressing by a large margin based on their play alone.
Sleeper: Anquan Boldin, WR
A few candidates to choose from here, but Boldin becomes an obvious one knowing that Michael Crabtree is sidelined. Kaep clearly likes to use his number one option often as shown by Crabtree's breakout in the second half of the season, especially in PPR leagues. If Boldin can pick up even some of that production, then he'll put up solid numbers. Last year, Boldin had four double digit games in standard leagues, and a few more in PPR leagues while playing second fiddle to Torrey Smith, and sometimes third fiddle to either Ray Rice or Dennis Pitta. Now he gets to be the number one receiver for an offense that should put plenty of pressure on defenses. Boldin's strong route running will benefit Kaep in real life and you in your fantasy league. He's a pretty good WR2 and a solid FLEX.
Bottom Line:
This is the most talented team in this division, both in real life and fantasy wise. I think any 49er is safe, and some (Boldin, LaMichael James, Quinton Patton) have great upside as well. Their defense will be strong once again, translating into what I believe will be the number one ranked fantasy defense at the end of the year. From an offensive side, their schedule looks fairly soft as the only strong defenses they face outside their division are Houston and Tampa Bay (potentially). They also get some notoriously soft defenses in New Orleans, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indy, and Carolina. Look for 49ers in your draft as they should be a good addition to any fantasy team.
Again, as I mentioned last year, these breakdowns are meant to be more of a guide than strict rules to adhere to. For instance, last year my bust for the 49ers was Gore and my sleeper was Randy Moss. Look how accurate that was. This should really be meant to either confirm or counter assumptions about certain players you are considering drafting. The value of players will also change based on your draft type. I am basing these breakdowns around standard leagues, but PPR ones should weight WRs and pass catching backs higher, while two QB ones obviously should weight the QBs higher. Hopefully these help you out in winning your league, and look for the AFC West breakdown in the next few days.
Matty O
Past Fantasy Seasons
2012 - Second to last (Standard), First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs (PPR)
2011 - First Place Regular Season, Second Place Playoffs
2010 - Sixth Place Regular Season
2009 - Third Place Regular Season and Playoffs
2008 - First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs
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