World Cup Final Preview

How They Got Here
Germany
Won Group G.  Defeated Algeria 2-1 in Round of 16.  Defeated France 1-0 in Quarterfinals.  Defeated Brazil 7-1 in Semifinals.

Argentina
Won Group F.  Defeated Switzerland 1-0 in Round of 16.  Defeated Belgium 1-0 in Quarterfinals.  Defeated Netherlands 4-2 in penalty shootout, 0-0 regulation in Semifinals.

How Germany Can Win
As simple and cliche as it sounds, all Germany needs to do is keep doing what they've been doing.  They've dominated at times this tournament and have only experienced struggles against the two African nations they have faced (Ghana and Algeria).  Thankfully for the Germans, Argentina is in South America.  Their last game against a South American nation went pretty well.  The final score of the Brazil game looked ugly, but to be honest, it appeared as though Brazil kind of quit after the third goal.  I doubt they get that much open space and free running against Argentina as they did against Brazil in the final 60 or so minutes of that game.  Still, their first three goals when Brazil was still mentally and emotionally in it, exemplified how the Germans have played at this World Cup.

Germany has thrived on precision passing and taking advantage of other teams' mistakes.  Unlike a Brazil, who heavily relied on Neymar for possession and offense, Germany seems to distribute the load evenly.  As far as goals go, Thomas Muller and Miroslav Klose have certainly seen their fair share of them this tournament, but you never got the sense that they were the sole reason for the Germans winning.  They also have the depth to go with different lineups depending on their opponent.  The fact that players like Klose, Mario Gotze, and even Bastian Schweinsteiger have all been subs at this Cup tells you a lot about their depth. 

Germany just needs to continue with their attacking possession and, obviously, contain Lionel Messi.  Contrary to popular belief, Argentina do have other weapons besides Messi that can kill you, but Messi certainly makes it much easier on all of them.  Teams have done a fairly good job of containing him this World Cup and the German midfield will be the best he's faced yet.  Still, all it takes is that one moment when you fall asleep and then the ball is in the back of the net.

How Argentina Can Win
As I mentioned before, Argentina is not a one trick pony.  That would be Portugal (looking at you Christiano Ronaldo).  Argentina has skilled players all over the pitch, particularly up front.  The three striker rotation of Gonzalo Higuain, Rodrigo Palacio, and Sergio Aguero may be the best collection of forwards on one team of any in the World Cup.  Another piece of good news for Argentina is that their defense has peaked at just the right time.  They have yet to allow a non-penalty shootout goal in the knockout stages against the Swiss, Belgium, and the Dutch.  To be fair, the Swiss are not known for their offense and Belgium underachieved all tournament, but holding the Dutch scoreless for a full 120 minutes without giving up many good chances was incredible.  They'll need their defense to come up big once again.

Despite the other weapons, Messi's performance has to be where Argentina's hopes are either realized or destroyed.  Messi will have more pressure on him than anyone else in this game by a long shot.  He continues to battle unfair comparisons to Diego Maradona, who is a legend in Argentina thanks to his 1986 World Cup winning performance (five goals, five assists).  Given Messi's club success and skill in general, it would be a major disappointment if he were to not win a Cup for Argentina.  His Argentine team has been ousted in the quarterfinals the past two World Cups, so people are looking at this chance as his best.  While I don't think he needs to play at a superstar level to win, I do think that if he plays poorly, that Argentina will lose and lose big.

If Argentina can beat back the waves of German attack that they will see on Sunday, then I think they have a shot.  They're a very fast and quick team, but it's a controlled fast.  Compare that to Brazil, who is also fast, but quite reckless in the process.  Sometimes it works for the Brazilians, other times, like when David Luiz hung his defense out to dry multiple times in the semifinal, it can be costly.  Argentina's counterattack will go a long way in helping them to win this match.  If there is a weakness to be found in the German squad it is their defense.  While they do have one of the best goalies in the world in Manuel Neuer in net, it won't mean much if they give up open looks.  It will certainly be an uphill battle for Messi and Argentina, but all it takes is one moment, one mistake, to win a soccer game.

Prediction
Germany 3 - Argentina 1
I think this will be a great game of two nations with storied soccer histories battling it out.  I think Argentina gets their fair share of chances and even puts one home.  Their defense has been playing well, but Germany has been clinically dissecting defenses all tournament.  I think it's 2-1 by the time the 70th minute rolls around and Germany gets their third on the counter as Argentina is forced to push men forward.

Be sure to catch the final, Sunday on ABC at 2pm central!

Matty O