In the spirit of Thanksgiving, here are what NFL teams should be thankful for with five games left to go in the season.
The Arizona Cardinals are thankful that their defense is so good. That's really all they have to hang their hat on entering the playoffs as their offense cannot thrive with Drew Stanton under center. They've scored 17 total points in their past two games with Stanton under center combined. It was against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Seattle and Detroit), but it's not like those kind of defenses won't be there in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are thankful that they play six games against NFC South opponents. They are 4-0 in their division and 0-7 outside of it. They have three outside their division left and two in their division. That would give them a final record of 6-10 if everything keeps going this way. Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC South.
The Baltimore Ravens are thankful that they signed Justin Forsett. Forsett, a journeyman NFL player on his fourth NFL team in six seasons, was buried on the depth chart behind Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. After Rice got suspended and Pierce got hurt, however, it was Forsett who had to pick up the slack for the Ravens. He's performed tremendously as he's already topped his single season high in rushing yards and TDs with five games left to play.
The Buffalo Bills are thankful that they made a quarterback change. While some teams stubbornly stick with their young, project QBs (Jets, Redskins), the Bills decided to remove the young EJ Manuel and put in the wily veteran Kyle Orton, after Manuel put up back to back duds against the Chargers and Texans in Weeks 3 and 4. They've gone 4-3 since then with their losses coming to the Pats, against KC, and in Miami on a Thursday. They're still in the playoff hunt at the end of November, which is a welcome change for Bills fans.
The Carolina Panthers are thankful that they don't play anymore prime time games. Their three this year were Sunday Night Football against Pittsburgh in Week 3, Thursday Night Football against New Orleans in Week 9, and Monday Night Football in Philly in Week 10. They allowed the Steelers' offense to do whatever they wanted in Week 3, Cam Newton went 10/28 for 151 yards and an interception in Week 9, and then Cam put up an 8.4 QBR in Week 10 and struggled to even stand. Luckily, the rest of their games are at noon so the Panthers' fans suffering can at least be early in the day.
The Chicago Bears are thankful that they don't listen to the fans. Cutler would be gone, Trestman would be back in Canada, and Mike from the butcher shop would be the new coach because he drew up some pretty cool plays at the bar last night. The reality is Cutler is locked in contractually and still gives them their best chance to win. No free agents are as good as Cutler and the Bears don't lose enough to get a high enough draft pick for a good QB. Also remember that this is only Trestman's second year with players that he didn't draft.
The Cincinnati Bengals are thankful that their schedule has been so easy. The only team that they've beaten with a winning record have been the Ravens, twice. On the other hand, the Patriots embarrassed them, they somehow tied the woeful Panthers in Cincinnati, were shut out by the Colts, and were blown out by Cleveland. They're setting themselves up for the same narrative once again. They'll make the playoffs, then be a quick out as they beat the teams they're supposed to and get thrashed by the great teams.
The Cleveland Browns are thankful that Josh Gordon is back. They were 6-4 without him, but Gordon is the key for their offense to go from mediocre to pretty good. They used their improved offense this past weekend to win in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. All roads to the Super Bowl seem to have to go through New England or Denver so they'll need an offensive weapon that can keep up with Brady and Manning. Gordon provides that spark.
The Dallas Cowboys are thankful that they didn't draft Johnny Manziel this past spring. He was there. The high flying Texas A&M phenom staying in state to play for the most prominent team and owner in the NFL. They would've won the offseason, but that's not what this team is trying to do. Instead they took offensive lineman Zack Martin, who has been an important part of Dallas' new found running game. It has put Dallas in a position to make a deep run in the playoffs, while Manziel continues to sit in Cleveland.
The Denver Broncos are thankful that John Elway is their owner. He realizes what his team needs, who is available that can help those needs, and acts without hesitation. Getting Peyton Manning a couple years ago was obviously a huge move, but this past offseason might have been even better. TJ Ward, Demarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib have all made the Denver defense much better than last year, and Emmanuel Sanders has predictably slid right in and outperformed Eric Decker, whom they lost to free agency.
The Detroit Lions are thankful that they don't use the college football ranking system in the NFL. If they did, the Lions would fail the eye test and margin of victory test terribly. Watching the Lions, they just don't look like a good team. They got blown out by the Panthers, lost to the Bills, put up six in a loss to Arizona, and looked like the mid-2000s Lions as they got blown out by the Patriots. Even when they win, they still do head scratching Lion like things.
The Green Bay Packers are thankful that Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. I mean, not much else to say here. He's good.
The Houston Texans are thankful that defensive end JJ Watt is not a real human being. He's got to be some kind of machine, right? He has 9 1/2 sacks, two defensive TDs, two receiving TDs, and is disruptive to a game plan at all times. DeAndre Hopkins is the only Texans' wide receiver with more receiving TDs than Watt. He's a legitimate NFL MVP candidate and would probably win if Brady, Rodgers, and DeMarco Murray weren't having such good years.
The Indianapolis Colts are thankful that Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy this year. Obviously he just got injured a couple weeks ago, and I'm not sure the Colts sit at 7-4 without him. Trent Richardson, contrary to what I thought when they traded for him, just isn't working out in Indy. Enter Bradshaw who has rushed for eight less yards than Richardson, but also has received 37 less carries. He has the fourth most receptions on the team and the second most receiving TDs. It will be interesting to see how this offense does down the stretch without him.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are thankful that they have pieces in place. It might not seem like it because of their 1-10 record, but the Jags are close to becoming a decent team in this league, particularly offensively. Blake Bortles is a rookie doing rookie things, but should improve given his physical traits. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have both shown they can play in this league, though Robinson is done for the year. Denard Robinson has come out of nowhere and has gone from Michigan quarterback to bell cow back for this team. Don't sleep on this team in the near future.
The Kansas City Chiefs are thankful that their receivers are not selfish and/or outspoken. The Chiefs have a meager 13 passing TDs this year. Of those 13, zero have gone to a wide receiver. And they say the NFL has evolved into a passing league. At some point though, they're going to need some explosive plays in the passing game to make a deep run in the playoffs. Sunday Night's game against the Broncos in Arrowhead will be a good test to determine where both teams are.
The Miami Dolphins are thankful that Ryan Tannehill has been unleashed. It sounds funny to say, but Tannehill has actually started to play well now that the training wheels are off. He should shatter his season high for TD passes, he's cut down on his fumbles, and he's already topped his season high for total rushing yards with only 11 games played. The Dolphins sit at 6-5 after a hard fought loss in Denver and have key games against the Ravens in Week 14 and in New England in Week 15.
The Minnesota Vikings are thankful that their team still plays hard? Look, I'm stretching here as the Vikes have very little to be thankful for. They lost their star running back to suspension, Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been as good as advertised, their division is tough, and they have to play their games outside in the freezing cold of Minnesota instead of indoors. They played the Bears and Packers tough their last two games, but came out losers. They seem to at least be trying, but the skill gap is just too great. It will be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson ever wears the purple and gold again.
The New England Patriots are thankful that they just don't care. If Bill Belichick and Jay Cutler ever teamed up, they would be the best non-caring coach/QB combo in NFL history. People, including myself, pretty much wrote off the Patriots after their Week 4 meltdown in Kansas City. People were even calling for Jimmy Garoppolo to start over Tom Brady. Wouldn't you know that since Week 4, the Pats haven't lost a game and have looked like the best team in the NFL. If the demolition continues in Green Bay this weekend, I'm not sure how the Patriots aren't everyone's Super Bowl pick.
The New Orleans Saints are thankful that they have found a running game. Despite their 4-7 record, they're still in first place and can still secure a home playoff game. Without Mark Ingram finally playing like a first round draft pick, they might be in Tampa Bay territory record wise. Ingram has already topped his career rushing yardage and TD totals in only eight games. He was a big reason why the Saints got their first road win in forever this year as they fed him the ball 30 times in Carolina in Week 9. Dropping three straight at home was a head scratcher, but their running game could help them stay afloat in the weak NFC South.
The New York Giants are thankful that they drafted Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham's insane catch will probably be the highlight of the year, surrounded by moments of sadness and dread. Once Victor Cruz went down for the year, the Giants needed someone to make their offense respectable. Beckham filled that role nicely and has shown that he has some of the best hands in the game, even as a rookie. Giants fans might be the most thankful after the season, if Tom Coughlin and/or Eli Manning are run out of town.
The New York Jets are thankful that they have a quarterback controversy. If they didn't, no one would be talking about them this year. Instead, the media enjoys a good back and forth on whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith should be the starting QB. Personally, I think you could have both on the field at the same time, both with live footballs, and they still couldn't move the chains. Vick is past his prime and Geno just isn't good. A top 10 draft pick seems like a certainty for the Jets. Scholars will be forever puzzled how this team beat the Steelers in Week 10.
The Oakland Raiders are thankful that they're not the Jets. People stopped talking about the Raiders months ago and they actually won in their only prime time spot, beating the Chiefs 24-20 for their first and probably only win. People will pretty much forget about them unless they win or do something awesome. That's not the worst situation to be in. Also, they're making a strong push for the number one overall draft pick!
The Philadelphia Eagles are thankful that Chip Kelly's system is so quarterback friendly. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez are names that shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone, let alone NFL teams. Somehow, with those two signal callers, the Eagles are 8-3 with losses in San Fran, Arizona, and Green Bay. Not bad. Because of the pace at which the offense runs and the threat of LeSean McCoy getting the ball, it puts tremendous pressure on the defense and allows quarterbacks to thrive no matter who is back there. Their next three games (at Dallas, vs Seattle, vs Dallas) will tell us a lot about a Mark Sanchez-led offense moving forward, and should decide the NFC East.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are thankful that no one can cover Antonio Brown. Having him for fantasy football makes you realize how much they feed him the ball. Brown has a ridiculous 123 targets with 70 targets for Le'Veon Bell coming in second. He's in the top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards, TDs, and yards after catch. He's a significant reason why Big Ben has had such a good year and why this Steelers passing game is now feared by defenses.
The Saint Louis Rams are thankful that they know what they have with each of their quarterbacks. Sam Bradford just can't stay healthy and will likely be gone from the team either next year or in 2016 when he becomes a free agent. Austin Davis is a replacement level QB at best. Shaun Hill can get the job done, but won't take a team to the next level. The Rams are a fairly good team overall, but have been looking for answers at quarterback since Kurt Warner and have yet to find one. Maybe the 2015 draft will bring them good fortune.
The San Diego Chargers are thankful that they accumulated wins early in the season. Recently, the Chargers have looked bad. Weeks 7-9 saw three straight losses, capped off by a 37-0 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Their past two games have been won by a combined 10 points against the Raiders and Rams. Their upcoming schedule takes them to Baltimore, at home against New England and Denver, then to San Fran, and finishing up in Arrowhead. At 7-4 in the AFC West, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers are thankful that they have played through distractions. Their two most significant distractions were their decision to play Ray McDonald while a domestic violence investigation was ongoing against him, and the rumors that Jim Harbaugh had lost the locker room and was leaving after this year. No charges ended up being filed against McDonald, although at the time, I thought he should not have played simply because it looked bad for the organization. The Harbaugh rumors have died off pretty quickly as they now sit at 7-4 in a division they can still win. Their home and home with Seattle in the next three weeks could eliminate one of them from playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks are thankful that their home field advantage remains one of the best in the NFL. It lost some of its luster when the Broncos drove down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime in Week 3, and when Dallas actually beat the Seahawks in Week 6, but it's still not a pleasant place to play. They just smothered the division leading Arizona Cardinals at home and now get the Niners twice sandwiched around a game in Philly. The Seahawks need a great stretch run to secure at least one home home playoff game to have that thunderous crowd backing them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are thankful that they play in the NFC South. You could really say that about any team in that division, but the Bucs are probably the ones that benefit the most. The glass half empty folks will say that they are losers and are only one game behind Oakland and Jacksonville for the number one overall pick in the draft. The glass half full folks will say that they're an up and coming team that are only two games out of first place in their division. Both are true. Go figure.
The Tennessee Titans are thankful that they drafted Zach Mettenberger. The Titans with Mettenberger are in the same boat as the Giants with his LSU teammate, Beckham. Both have lost seasons, but are at least giving their rookies valuable reps. At LSU, he had all the physical ability but would occasionally make awful decisions. This has carried over into the NFL, but can be fixed with time. He's certainly better than the other two QBs on the roster (Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst) and his sixth round draft selection makes him easy to part ways with if the experiment doesn't work out.
The Washington Redskins are thankful that Robert Griffin III only has one year left on his contract. It just hasn't worked out and the Redskins need to acknowledge that. I'm not sure he'll ever be as dynamic of a runner as he was in his rookie season. I've mentioned on my fantasy football articles that without the threat of his legs, RG3 is no more than an average passer in the NFL. I think his athleticism and skill that he showed his rookie year is what keeps Redskins fans wanting him to turn it around, but I doubt he will for the Redskins, or any other NFL team for that matter.
Matty O
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Friday, November 14, 2014
When Does Injury Outweigh Potential?
What is Derrick Rose's lower body made of? Whether it's ankles, knees, and last night a hamstring, it seems that anytime he plays, he gets hurt. What's even more concerning is his style of play and the aggression he plays with. He goes 100% all the time, which is what makes him such a great player and gives Bulls' fans heart attacks whenever he drives the lane. The question now becomes whether the injury plagued Rose is really the franchise player that the Bulls had imagined.
When he's fully healthy, he's arguably the best point guard in the league. He's at least in the top three with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, you can't turn injuries off like in a video game. His first three seasons went by without any notable injuries. Notable awards collected during that time were Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a couple All-Star games. Then came the 2011-12 season. He had toe, groin, and back injuries, but those were pretty minor. They caused him to miss time in the regular season, but the Bulls still finished four games ahead of the Miami Big 3 for the number one seed in the East. The general belief was the Bulls would advance to the Conference Finals and meet up with the winner of the Pacers-Heat series in the second round.
Then came the infamous ACL injury in the first game against the Sixers. The Bulls were far and away the better team on paper, but I think the loss of Rose rattled them the rest of the series as they lost 4-2 to the eighth seeded Sixers. Still, this didn't and shouldn't have deterred any Rose or Bulls supporters. Major injuries happen, but the core of the Bulls was still intact, Rose had a full offseason to heal, and they were going to come back bigger and badder than ever the next season. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, he missed the entire 2012-13 season, only to come back during the 2013-14 campaign and tear his meniscus. This is when people really started to become concerned. He would now have missed the better part of three seasons with injury problems and hadn't played in a playoff game since the spring of 2012. In the meantime, the Bulls had gone through a revolving door of point guards who, to their credit, played admirably, but not well enough to get them to the NBA Finals. This season when Rose is on the floor, you can almost feel the anxiety of everyone in the stands. Anytime he takes a step, you quietly wonder if this is it. Is this when the injury returns?
With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the Bulls' front office handles the next couple of off-seasons. On the one hand, you have a former MVP and a guy who could point guard a championship team...when he's healthy. On the other hand, you have a walking injury risk who is as likely to put up 25 points in one night as he is to miss 25 nights with one injury. He's signed through the 2016-17 season, which is when a serious decision will have to be made. Is it worth it to keep Derrick Rose?
The main appeal with Rose, apart from his play on the court, was that he was the hometown kid. He played high school ball at Simeon, unfortunately left for Memphis (could have used him down in Champaign for a year), then was drafted by the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of getting the number one overall pick. This seemed like the pick of destiny, just without Tenacious D. The excitement that was there early on, however, has seemed to wane. A lot of fans were turned off by comments made this past week about how he thinks about life after basketball, though I thought that got blown out of proportion. That was more a case of Rose not saying what he said how he should have said it. He's not getting paid to talk, he's getting paid to play and that really came out in those comments.
Without strong local support for Rose, what is keeping management from allowing him to walk in a couple years? Prior to this season, the city of Chicago essentially forgave him for sitting out an entire season. If the Bulls had acquired Russell Westbrook, a similar player but with no local ties, would the leash have been as long? I would argue no. So now, from a purely business perspective, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep him.
You can certainly adjust contracts, particularly with guaranteed money and incentives (like games played/started), to make life easier on you financially. The problem is that players are less likely to take those kind of contracts, particularly with Rose who will still be under 30 years old when his contract is up. There's also the fact that you miss out on any superstar point guard that would be coming out of the draft as long as you have Rose. This is why the Colts made such a great decision with the whole Peyton Manning situation. They could have kept him coming off neck surgery and he probably still could have given them four or five more years of quality QB play. Just look at what he's doing in Denver. By re-signing Manning, however, they would also be passing on Andrew Luck.
While there are no guarantees, Luck looked like the best QB prospect to come out of college in a while. Luck could have doubled or even tripled the amount of good years he could give the Colts over how long Peyton could give them. I don't follow high school basketball that much, but there's a decent chance that an attractive one-and-done point guard option will be available in the next couple of years. So do you take that guy who could give you double digit seasons of production, or sign Rose to a three or four year deal where he gives you spectacular nights along with stretches of injured time away from the court? Obviously it will depend on what the coming draft classes look like, but I would argue for taking the young gun over re-signing Rose.
A philosophy that I have in fantasy football is that bench points don't count. Actually, that's not a philosophy, that's a fact. It doesn't matter if Tom Brady throws for 700 yards and Calvin Johnson catches 8 TD passes if they're on your bench. It doesn't count, those stats don't matter. While Rose can't score from the bench in real life, he can continue to collect money that could be going to someone that will actually play. He might have been a former MVP and he might be able to average over 20 points per game, but, like fantasy football bench stats, those things don't matter if you're in the trainer's room.
This year is critical for Rose's future in Chicago. He needs to prove that his health won't be a concern going forward, even though he's already had a couple scares this year. The Bulls will make the playoffs, with or without him, but the playoffs are where he needs to shine. If he can lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs, maybe with a berth in the NBA Finals, I believe he will be forgiven once again. Heck, if he wins the NBA Finals I know he will be forgiven and he could retire that day and go to all the graduations he wants to. Pain free! If not, he might be exiled by the fans that once embraced him as the Bulls continue to try and find the next Jordan.
Matty O
When he's fully healthy, he's arguably the best point guard in the league. He's at least in the top three with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, you can't turn injuries off like in a video game. His first three seasons went by without any notable injuries. Notable awards collected during that time were Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a couple All-Star games. Then came the 2011-12 season. He had toe, groin, and back injuries, but those were pretty minor. They caused him to miss time in the regular season, but the Bulls still finished four games ahead of the Miami Big 3 for the number one seed in the East. The general belief was the Bulls would advance to the Conference Finals and meet up with the winner of the Pacers-Heat series in the second round.
Then came the infamous ACL injury in the first game against the Sixers. The Bulls were far and away the better team on paper, but I think the loss of Rose rattled them the rest of the series as they lost 4-2 to the eighth seeded Sixers. Still, this didn't and shouldn't have deterred any Rose or Bulls supporters. Major injuries happen, but the core of the Bulls was still intact, Rose had a full offseason to heal, and they were going to come back bigger and badder than ever the next season. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, he missed the entire 2012-13 season, only to come back during the 2013-14 campaign and tear his meniscus. This is when people really started to become concerned. He would now have missed the better part of three seasons with injury problems and hadn't played in a playoff game since the spring of 2012. In the meantime, the Bulls had gone through a revolving door of point guards who, to their credit, played admirably, but not well enough to get them to the NBA Finals. This season when Rose is on the floor, you can almost feel the anxiety of everyone in the stands. Anytime he takes a step, you quietly wonder if this is it. Is this when the injury returns?
With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the Bulls' front office handles the next couple of off-seasons. On the one hand, you have a former MVP and a guy who could point guard a championship team...when he's healthy. On the other hand, you have a walking injury risk who is as likely to put up 25 points in one night as he is to miss 25 nights with one injury. He's signed through the 2016-17 season, which is when a serious decision will have to be made. Is it worth it to keep Derrick Rose?
The main appeal with Rose, apart from his play on the court, was that he was the hometown kid. He played high school ball at Simeon, unfortunately left for Memphis (could have used him down in Champaign for a year), then was drafted by the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of getting the number one overall pick. This seemed like the pick of destiny, just without Tenacious D. The excitement that was there early on, however, has seemed to wane. A lot of fans were turned off by comments made this past week about how he thinks about life after basketball, though I thought that got blown out of proportion. That was more a case of Rose not saying what he said how he should have said it. He's not getting paid to talk, he's getting paid to play and that really came out in those comments.
Without strong local support for Rose, what is keeping management from allowing him to walk in a couple years? Prior to this season, the city of Chicago essentially forgave him for sitting out an entire season. If the Bulls had acquired Russell Westbrook, a similar player but with no local ties, would the leash have been as long? I would argue no. So now, from a purely business perspective, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep him.
You can certainly adjust contracts, particularly with guaranteed money and incentives (like games played/started), to make life easier on you financially. The problem is that players are less likely to take those kind of contracts, particularly with Rose who will still be under 30 years old when his contract is up. There's also the fact that you miss out on any superstar point guard that would be coming out of the draft as long as you have Rose. This is why the Colts made such a great decision with the whole Peyton Manning situation. They could have kept him coming off neck surgery and he probably still could have given them four or five more years of quality QB play. Just look at what he's doing in Denver. By re-signing Manning, however, they would also be passing on Andrew Luck.
While there are no guarantees, Luck looked like the best QB prospect to come out of college in a while. Luck could have doubled or even tripled the amount of good years he could give the Colts over how long Peyton could give them. I don't follow high school basketball that much, but there's a decent chance that an attractive one-and-done point guard option will be available in the next couple of years. So do you take that guy who could give you double digit seasons of production, or sign Rose to a three or four year deal where he gives you spectacular nights along with stretches of injured time away from the court? Obviously it will depend on what the coming draft classes look like, but I would argue for taking the young gun over re-signing Rose.
A philosophy that I have in fantasy football is that bench points don't count. Actually, that's not a philosophy, that's a fact. It doesn't matter if Tom Brady throws for 700 yards and Calvin Johnson catches 8 TD passes if they're on your bench. It doesn't count, those stats don't matter. While Rose can't score from the bench in real life, he can continue to collect money that could be going to someone that will actually play. He might have been a former MVP and he might be able to average over 20 points per game, but, like fantasy football bench stats, those things don't matter if you're in the trainer's room.
This year is critical for Rose's future in Chicago. He needs to prove that his health won't be a concern going forward, even though he's already had a couple scares this year. The Bulls will make the playoffs, with or without him, but the playoffs are where he needs to shine. If he can lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs, maybe with a berth in the NBA Finals, I believe he will be forgiven once again. Heck, if he wins the NBA Finals I know he will be forgiven and he could retire that day and go to all the graduations he wants to. Pain free! If not, he might be exiled by the fans that once embraced him as the Bulls continue to try and find the next Jordan.
Matty O
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Fantasy Football: The Stretch Run
With a lot of league's playoffs starting in either Week 14 or Week 15, it's getting to be crunch time for a lot of fantasy teams. Whether you are on the cusp of getting into your playoffs or at the top, trying to secure a high seed and/or bye, you'll need to set yourself up for success. Weather, matchups, and injuries can all change the value of a player down the stretch, regardless of what they've done up to this point. This article will help you decide which players look favorable down the stretch and what to keep an eye out for.
Weather
Checking the weather before setting your lineups in the upcoming weeks isn't the worst idea in the world. Wind, rain, snow, and sleet are all headed to a lot of stadiums near you. The severity of it could effect your lineup decisions. A slight drizzle might not deter you, but blizzard conditions like in the Eagles-Lions game last year should. In that game there were eight touchdowns scored. Guess how many points both kickers had combined? Yep, zero. One extra point was attempted, only to be missed. That's how bad conditions were. Nick Foles threw for a whopping 179 yards with one TD and one pick. Not to be outdone, Matthew Stafford threw for 151 yards with zero TDs and zero picks.
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
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