Weather
Checking the weather before setting your lineups in the upcoming weeks isn't the worst idea in the world. Wind, rain, snow, and sleet are all headed to a lot of stadiums near you. The severity of it could effect your lineup decisions. A slight drizzle might not deter you, but blizzard conditions like in the Eagles-Lions game last year should. In that game there were eight touchdowns scored. Guess how many points both kickers had combined? Yep, zero. One extra point was attempted, only to be missed. That's how bad conditions were. Nick Foles threw for a whopping 179 yards with one TD and one pick. Not to be outdone, Matthew Stafford threw for 151 yards with zero TDs and zero picks.
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
Nice post Matt. I have Aaron Rodgers as my starting QB, and Tom Brady as my backup. Would you recommend I keep Rodgers starting for week 11, or put Brady in? Their projections are almost identical.
ReplyDeleteFor starters, as long as your trade deadline hasn't passed, I would try and trade one of them, unless you're in a two QB league. It would be better to trade one for a WR or RB that puts up points in your starting lineup, than have both Brady and Rodgers have nice games, but one of them is chilling on the bench.
DeleteAs for this week, I'd probably go with Rodgers. The Philly D is aggressive and probably more likely to get an interception, but they give up a ton of yards and TDs. Also, Philly's fast paced offense gives them more possessions, but also gives their opponents more possessions than normal as well. Check the weather in Green Bay on Sunday, but barring a blizzard, I'd play A-Rod. You can't really go wrong with either one the way they're playing though.