So maybe Marc Trestman wasn't the savior the Bears thought he would be. The two time Grey Cup winning coach in the Canadian Football League found much less success in the National Football League. The Bears finished 8-8 last year and couldn't win the division, despite Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers missing time. 2014 has been even more of a train wreck as the defense has somehow gotten worse, Jay Cutler has now been benched, and the Bears are guaranteed to have a losing record this year. While no action has been taken yet, it is becoming more and more likely that Trestman is fired at the end of the year.
The question now becomes who replaces him? The answer to that question may lie all the way on the West Coast, with a coach that is experiencing his own nightmare of a season. Jim Harbaugh had taken his San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship Game three years in a row prior to 2014. While four in a row is certainly hard to do, people had to believe that Harbaugh and the Niners would have a chance to be there, and at worst, make the playoffs. After Week 15, however, those possibilities are gone as the Niners are now eliminated from the playoffs. Depending on how the final two weeks of the season go, there is a chance that the currently 7-7 Niners will suffer their first losing season under Harbaugh. His QB, Colin Kaepernick, has regressed badly, and the dominant defense has been plagued by injury. Despite his first three successful years, Harbaugh, like Trestman, is rumored to be on the way out.
Harbaugh: The Real QB Whisperer
The three people at the top of Bears' fans' hate list currently are Trestman, GM Phil Emery, and QB Jay Cutler. While Harbaugh can do nothing to help Trestman or Emery, he can help out with Cutler. If there's one thing Harbaugh has shown he can do consistently, it's develop QBs, even those left for dead. Let's look at his time as the head coach at Stanford. While Andrew Luck is recognized as the best young QB in the game today, it was not always that way. Coming out of high school, Luck was the seventh rated QB behind the likes of Terrelle Pryor (1), Mike Glennon (3), Blaine Gabbert (5), and E.J. Manuel (6).
Harbaugh was there for Luck's redshirt freshman, freshman, and sophomore seasons. In his sophomore season, Stanford went 12-1, won the Orange Bowl with Luck as the game MVP, and Luck finished second in the Heisman voting. By that time, he was already considered the best QB prospect in college football, but bypassed the draft to come back for his junior season. Luck came back, but Harbaugh left to pursue the challenge of coaching in the NFL with the 49ers.
The QB he inherited in San Fran was Alex Smith. This is the same Alex Smith that was taken first overall by the Niners in the 2005 draft, and was deemed a bust and a joke by the time Harbaugh took the head coaching job in 2011. By that time, Smith had already had a disastrous rookie campaign (nine games, 1 TD, 11 interceptions), an entire season missed due to injury (2008), and had been pulled in favor of the likes of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. From the moment Harbaugh signed on to the team, however, the entire narrative changed.
In 2011, Smith had, by far, his best season as a pro up to that point. He finished with his highest QB rating, best completion percentage, most yards, least interceptions (for a 16 game season), and most rushing yards than he had in any season prior. The Niners went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship Game. In 2012, Smith was actually having an even better season and looked like the guy they thought they were drafting first overall in 2005. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on how you look at it, Smith went down with an injury in Week 10 against the Rams. This gave way to the Niners' second round pick in 2011, Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick actually had a very successful college career, but didn't get the attention because he went to the University of Nevada. He captured everyone's attention pretty quickly, however, as he displayed excellent athleticism and a surprisingly good arm. His play earned him the start over Smith once Smith was healthy. They rode Kaepernick's arm and legs all the way to an 11-4-1 record and a berth in the Super Bowl. They were so confident in Kaepernick that they decided to let Smith walk in the offseason to sign with Kansas City. It worked out for both sides as Kaepernick continued his stellar play in 2013 as he threw for over 3,000 yards and had 25 total TDs as the Niners went back to the NFC Championship Game. Smith, meanwhile, set career highs in passing yards, TDs, and rushing yards as he led KC to an 11-5 record but lost in a crazy playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts.
So, for the record, Harbaugh has turned a 7th rated QB in high school into a number one overall draft pick, a bust left for dead into a playoff-winning QB, and a backup QB out of Nevada into one of the more feared dual threat QBs in the league. It's obviously not a guarantee Cutler will even be in Chicago if Harbaugh were to come to the Bears, but whoever is there, I think Harbaugh can help tremendously.
Philosophy
Anyone that has seen the 49ers play during Harbaugh's tenure can tell exactly what his philosophy is. He wants to run the ball, control both lines of scrimmage, and play sound defense. It might not be pretty to watch, but it gets the W at the end of the day. Not only would running the ball get the ball to the Bears' most reliable player (Matt Forte), but it would also take the ball out of the hands of the Bears' most unreliable player (Cutler). Controlling the clock is key as it would allow the defense to face fewer plays, giving them less chances to be exposed.
While the defense is certainly devoid of talent, schemes and number of plays faced can help to mask some of the weaknesses. Look at the Cowboys this year. As far as talent is concerned, you could argue that their historically bad defense from last year had more. The difference is that Rod Marinelli is getting 110% out of his players and the Cowboy offense controls the ball, allowing the defense to rest and putting them in favorable positions. That needs to be the model for the Bears. They need to accept the fact that they don't have elite individual talent anymore on defense and try to minimize the amount of times they are on the field. A change in culture and philosophy can help that transition.
A Little Bit Of Crazy
Harbaugh is an interesting character. His boisterous and fiery demeanor has been seen as a pro and a con. He displays plenty of passion, but sometimes being in that kind of frenzy all the time can wear on people. That seems to have happened in San Fran. I think things would fare differently in the Windy City. Harbaugh's personality seems to be the exact opposite of Trestman's and I think that is what this team needs right now. I'm not saying someone with a calm demeanor like Trestman's can't be successful (Tony Dungy), but a little emotion is required. Harbaugh shows more emotion tying his shoe than Trestman does after a Bears' win. Some of the greats of the Bears (Mike Ditka, Mike Singletary), were known for their outbursts and loud personalities. Harbaugh fits that same kind of mold.
Obstacles
While I think Harbaugh would excel with the Bears, there are still some obstacles to point out. For starters, the Bears need to start drafting better. I mentioned how ball control can mask defensive deficiencies, but it would still be nice to have some help there. Not to take too much away from Harbaugh, but he inherited a stacked 49ers' roster, particularly on defense. Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, and Aldon Smith were all drafted by the 49ers by the time Harbaugh started coaching. The Bears have Kyle Fuller to build around, but nothing compared to what the Niners were supplied with. The offensive side of the ball is considerably better than in San Fran, though the line needs to be cleaned up. If the season ended today, the Bears would have the ninth overall pick, so it will be crucial to get a starter, and possible superstar on the defensive side of the ball or on the offensive line.
There's also the fact that Trestman hasn't been officially fired yet. While it is widely assumed that he will, there's a chance that a successful run these last two games by Jimmy Clausen could save his job. If Clausen does well, Trestman can point out that both Clausen and Josh McCown had success in his system, so the problem must be Cutler. While I doubt Clausen will be any kind of successful against the Lions and Vikings, he is the only guy who can possibly save Trestman's job.
The final issue is that coaching for the Oakland Raiders or Michigan Wolverines are also lucrative opportunities. He would be given total control at Michigan, his alma mater, to try and resurrect the once dominant college football program. With Oakland, he would be able to stay in the Bay Area where his family wants him to stay. While he would probably be given less total control than he would at Michigan, he would have more control than with the Bears. Oakland also has a project QB in Derek Carr, who has shown flashes this year, fifth overall pick in 2014 Khalil Mack, and likely a top five draft pick for the 2015 draft.
The attitude and culture that Harbaugh would bring would be beneficial to the Bears' organization. He's had success at the collegiate level, in the NFL, and has helped develop three productive quarterbacks in the league. After coming so close three times with San Fran, I think Harbaugh wants to stay in the NFL and capture the ultimate prize in football coaching. Chicago might just be the team and city that helps him fulfill that wish.
Matty O
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Monday, December 15, 2014
Matty O's 2015 Pro Bowl Ballot
Quarterback (pick 6)
Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
Pretty easy selections here. Unfortunately you can only pick six QBs as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Russell Wilson probably could make the argument to go to the Pro Bowl as well.
Running Back (pick 6)
Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Five of these guys are no brainers, but Forsett might surprise you. Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster supporters would probably argue against Forsett being in, but here's a guy that started the year third on the depth chart and was thrust into the starting position due to suspension (Ray Rice) and injury (Bernard Pierce). He has run for 1,080 yards with an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average. He's also caught 37 passes and scored eight total TDs. I think a trip to the Pro Bowl is due for this player who is on his fourth team.
Wide Receiver (pick 8)
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas
Lots of new names here. This year has seen veteran guys fade (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne), elite guys hampered by injury (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson), and a youngster come on strong at the end (Odell Beckham, Jr.), but the above eight guys have been consistently good all year. The three sort of unexpected guys on here are Hopkins, Maclin, and Sanders. Despite a carousel at QB, Hopkins has managed to go over 1,000 yards receiving and outperform Andre Johnson. Maclin has come back strong after he missed the entire 2013 season due to injury. He's gone over 1,100 yards and reached double digit TDs. Sanders, meanwhile, has kept pace with teammate Demaryius Thomas and posted nearly identical numbers.
Fullback (pick 2)
John Kuhn, Marcel Reece
Reece is the highlight here as he is, by far, the most versatile fullback in the league. He has 74 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving on 32 catches, and one TD. I'd really like to see him get out of Oakland and go to a team like Philly or New Orleans who would use him in creative ways.
Tight End (pick 4)
Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
This was probably the easiest category to pick as the top four are pretty clear cut. Jimmy Graham had a down year, as did the rest of the Saints' offense, and Antonio Gates just didn't put up the numbers that these four guys did.
Offensive Tackle (pick 6)
Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Clady, Doug Free, Russell Okung, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas
I'm not going to pretend to have expertise when it comes to offensive line so my picks for offensive tackle, guard, and center will probably be based on names I'm familiar with and/or someone who really has stood out when I watched on TV.
Offensive Guard (pick 6)
Joel Bitonio, David DeCastro, Orlando Franklin, Zack Martin, Josh Sitton, Marshal Yanda
Center (pick 4)
Travis Frederick, Corey Linsley, Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Defensive End (pick 6)
Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, Mario Williams
DE was stacked this year. The next six that didn't make my ballot (Ezekiel Ansah, Willie Young, Calais Campbell, Jerry Hughes, Olivier Vernon, Chris Clemons) would still make up a formidable group of defensive ends. The highlight here is obviously Watt as I believe he should be the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it due to the award being skewed towards the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Tackle (pick 6)
Marcell Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Stephen Paea, Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Muhammed Wilkerson
Another stacked category. The two guys I want to focus on are the two Jets, Wilkerson and Richardson. They have a combined 11 sacks, two forced fumbles, and have helped anchor the number four overall rushing defense in the league. It's important to note that the Jets were trailing in most of their games this year so even with the added "kill the clock" carries they faced, they were still holding up. If they could find some guys in the secondary, this defense could become elite once again.
Inside Linebacker (pick 4)
D'Qwell Jackson, Luke Kuechly, C.J. Mosley, Lawrence Timmons
Mosley is the one that has impressed me the most as he's a rookie on a team that prides itself on defense. He has responded with over 100 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. I'm not ready to make any Ray Lewis comparisons yet, but he certainly gives this defense a bright future. He's turning out to be a steal, even at 17th overall in this year's draft.
Outside Linebacker (pick 6)
Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Marshall, Von Miller
The two guys I want to highlight here are Barwin and Marshall. Each time I've watched an Eagles (Barwin) or Broncos (Marshall) game, these two seem to be everywhere. Barwin flies all over the field and has 13 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles to show for it. Marshall, meanwhile, seems to constantly fly under the radar with Miller and Ware also on the Broncos' defense, and a more famous Brandon Marshall playing receiver in Chicago. The Broncos' Marshall has over 100 tackles and seems to be a fundamentally sound football player.
Cornerback (pick 8)
Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Joe Haden, Keenan Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Buster Skrine, Aqib Talib
If the players actually give 100% effort in the Pro Bowl, I would love to see the CB vs WR matchups in this game. The three highlights here are Revis, Lewis, and Sherman. Revis Island is definitely back, and for a while, Lewis had his own island going before he got injured. Sherman is Sherman and can still shut down one side of the field, even though people have been trying to pick apart his game all year.
Strong Safety (pick 2)
Kam Chancellor, Donte Whitner
Not only are they the two best strong safties in the league, but they are two of the hardest hitters in the NFL.
Free Safety (pick 2)
Tashaun Gipson, Earl Thomas
Thomas was an easy pick, but it was tough to choose between Gipson and Chargers' safety Eric Weddle. Since Weddle and Thomas play a similar game, I went with Gipson as he is more of a play maker and ball hawk than either guy. Gipson leads all safeties in interceptions with six, and is allowed to float around with Whitner playing beside him.
Kicker (pick 2)
Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri
Carpenter has attempted the most FGs this year and is 28/32 and has banged one through from 58. Vinatieri is a perfect 27/27 as he continues to build on his Hall of Fame career.
Punter (pick 2)
Shane Lechler, Pat McAfee
The two best punters in the league were playing against each other this past weekend. Both have done it for a while and both can absolutely crush the ball.
Return Specialist (pick 2)
Devin Hester, Darren Sproles
Two easy picks here. Hester looks like a new man in Atlanta, as he has the highest punt return average in the league, a punt return TD, and almost 1000 kickoff return yards. Sproles, meanwhile, has the second highest punt return average and two punt return TDs. Both are electric and you have to hold your breath whenever they get even a sliver of room on returns.
Special Teamer (pick 2)
Matt Slater
I know you're supposed to pick two, but I really don't know anything about any of the other candidates. Slater is almost always the first guy down the field on punts and kickoffs for the Patriots. He deserves to go. Coin flip for the rest.
Disagree with my picks? Want to see your favorite player make the trip to the Pro Bowl? Well then, go here to vote for your favorite players.
Matty O
Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
Pretty easy selections here. Unfortunately you can only pick six QBs as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Russell Wilson probably could make the argument to go to the Pro Bowl as well.
Running Back (pick 6)
Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Five of these guys are no brainers, but Forsett might surprise you. Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster supporters would probably argue against Forsett being in, but here's a guy that started the year third on the depth chart and was thrust into the starting position due to suspension (Ray Rice) and injury (Bernard Pierce). He has run for 1,080 yards with an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average. He's also caught 37 passes and scored eight total TDs. I think a trip to the Pro Bowl is due for this player who is on his fourth team.
Wide Receiver (pick 8)
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas
Lots of new names here. This year has seen veteran guys fade (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne), elite guys hampered by injury (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson), and a youngster come on strong at the end (Odell Beckham, Jr.), but the above eight guys have been consistently good all year. The three sort of unexpected guys on here are Hopkins, Maclin, and Sanders. Despite a carousel at QB, Hopkins has managed to go over 1,000 yards receiving and outperform Andre Johnson. Maclin has come back strong after he missed the entire 2013 season due to injury. He's gone over 1,100 yards and reached double digit TDs. Sanders, meanwhile, has kept pace with teammate Demaryius Thomas and posted nearly identical numbers.
Fullback (pick 2)
John Kuhn, Marcel Reece
Reece is the highlight here as he is, by far, the most versatile fullback in the league. He has 74 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving on 32 catches, and one TD. I'd really like to see him get out of Oakland and go to a team like Philly or New Orleans who would use him in creative ways.
Tight End (pick 4)
Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
This was probably the easiest category to pick as the top four are pretty clear cut. Jimmy Graham had a down year, as did the rest of the Saints' offense, and Antonio Gates just didn't put up the numbers that these four guys did.
Offensive Tackle (pick 6)
Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Clady, Doug Free, Russell Okung, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas
I'm not going to pretend to have expertise when it comes to offensive line so my picks for offensive tackle, guard, and center will probably be based on names I'm familiar with and/or someone who really has stood out when I watched on TV.
Offensive Guard (pick 6)
Joel Bitonio, David DeCastro, Orlando Franklin, Zack Martin, Josh Sitton, Marshal Yanda
Center (pick 4)
Travis Frederick, Corey Linsley, Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Defensive End (pick 6)
Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, Mario Williams
DE was stacked this year. The next six that didn't make my ballot (Ezekiel Ansah, Willie Young, Calais Campbell, Jerry Hughes, Olivier Vernon, Chris Clemons) would still make up a formidable group of defensive ends. The highlight here is obviously Watt as I believe he should be the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it due to the award being skewed towards the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Tackle (pick 6)
Marcell Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Stephen Paea, Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Muhammed Wilkerson
Another stacked category. The two guys I want to focus on are the two Jets, Wilkerson and Richardson. They have a combined 11 sacks, two forced fumbles, and have helped anchor the number four overall rushing defense in the league. It's important to note that the Jets were trailing in most of their games this year so even with the added "kill the clock" carries they faced, they were still holding up. If they could find some guys in the secondary, this defense could become elite once again.
Inside Linebacker (pick 4)
D'Qwell Jackson, Luke Kuechly, C.J. Mosley, Lawrence Timmons
Mosley is the one that has impressed me the most as he's a rookie on a team that prides itself on defense. He has responded with over 100 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. I'm not ready to make any Ray Lewis comparisons yet, but he certainly gives this defense a bright future. He's turning out to be a steal, even at 17th overall in this year's draft.
Outside Linebacker (pick 6)
Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Marshall, Von Miller
The two guys I want to highlight here are Barwin and Marshall. Each time I've watched an Eagles (Barwin) or Broncos (Marshall) game, these two seem to be everywhere. Barwin flies all over the field and has 13 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles to show for it. Marshall, meanwhile, seems to constantly fly under the radar with Miller and Ware also on the Broncos' defense, and a more famous Brandon Marshall playing receiver in Chicago. The Broncos' Marshall has over 100 tackles and seems to be a fundamentally sound football player.
Cornerback (pick 8)
Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Joe Haden, Keenan Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Buster Skrine, Aqib Talib
If the players actually give 100% effort in the Pro Bowl, I would love to see the CB vs WR matchups in this game. The three highlights here are Revis, Lewis, and Sherman. Revis Island is definitely back, and for a while, Lewis had his own island going before he got injured. Sherman is Sherman and can still shut down one side of the field, even though people have been trying to pick apart his game all year.
Strong Safety (pick 2)
Kam Chancellor, Donte Whitner
Not only are they the two best strong safties in the league, but they are two of the hardest hitters in the NFL.
Free Safety (pick 2)
Tashaun Gipson, Earl Thomas
Thomas was an easy pick, but it was tough to choose between Gipson and Chargers' safety Eric Weddle. Since Weddle and Thomas play a similar game, I went with Gipson as he is more of a play maker and ball hawk than either guy. Gipson leads all safeties in interceptions with six, and is allowed to float around with Whitner playing beside him.
Kicker (pick 2)
Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri
Carpenter has attempted the most FGs this year and is 28/32 and has banged one through from 58. Vinatieri is a perfect 27/27 as he continues to build on his Hall of Fame career.
Punter (pick 2)
Shane Lechler, Pat McAfee
The two best punters in the league were playing against each other this past weekend. Both have done it for a while and both can absolutely crush the ball.
Return Specialist (pick 2)
Devin Hester, Darren Sproles
Two easy picks here. Hester looks like a new man in Atlanta, as he has the highest punt return average in the league, a punt return TD, and almost 1000 kickoff return yards. Sproles, meanwhile, has the second highest punt return average and two punt return TDs. Both are electric and you have to hold your breath whenever they get even a sliver of room on returns.
Special Teamer (pick 2)
Matt Slater
I know you're supposed to pick two, but I really don't know anything about any of the other candidates. Slater is almost always the first guy down the field on punts and kickoffs for the Patriots. He deserves to go. Coin flip for the rest.
Disagree with my picks? Want to see your favorite player make the trip to the Pro Bowl? Well then, go here to vote for your favorite players.
Matty O
Friday, December 12, 2014
2014-15 Bowl/Playoff Preview
Did you hear the one about how the playoff system would get rid of controversy? That was a good one. In year number one of the playoff system, we wound up with a final four of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State. Baylor and TCU, meanwhile, were shunned from the playoffs despite having "better losses" than Ohio State's 35-21 early season loss at home to Virginia Tech. Since Baylor and TCU are in a conference that doesn't have a conference championship game, however, it was extremely hard to prove to the committee just how worthy they were on the final weekend of the season. With no outright Big 12 champion, the committee went with the SEC, Pac-12, ACC, and Big 10 champions to square off in the first ever college football playoff. Lost in all the playoff hype is the fact that there are still bowl games to be played, and some that should command your attention.
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
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