Did you hear the one about how the playoff system would get rid of controversy? That was a good one. In year number one of the playoff system, we wound up with a final four of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State. Baylor and TCU, meanwhile, were shunned from the playoffs despite having "better losses" than Ohio State's 35-21 early season loss at home to Virginia Tech. Since Baylor and TCU are in a conference that doesn't have a conference championship game, however, it was extremely hard to prove to the committee just how worthy they were on the final weekend of the season. With no outright Big 12 champion, the committee went with the SEC, Pac-12, ACC, and Big 10 champions to square off in the first ever college football playoff. Lost in all the playoff hype is the fact that there are still bowl games to be played, and some that should command your attention.
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
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