With the NFL Pro Bowl and NHL All-Star Game this weekend, I thought now would be as good a time as any to break down the major four sports (NHL, NFL, MLB, NBA) All-Star Games. What makes them good? What are some flaws? Each All-Star Game brings together the best players in each sport, but the effort displayed often does not match the talent level.
NHL
Way Teams Are Selected: Fantasy style draft
Skills Competition?: Yes (Fastest Skater, Breakaway Challenge, Shooting Accuracy, Skills Challenge Relay, Hardest Shot, Shootout)
What Makes It Fun To Watch: Of all the skills competitions in the four major sports, I enjoy NHL's shootout competition the most, with the Home Run Derby in MLB a close second. You get the NHL's most creative skaters going up against the best goalies in the game. The shooters get all kinds of crazy with the shots and approaches they come up with, which usually leaves the goalies hanging out to dry. It's fun, light-hearted, and will often leave viewers with more than a few "Wow" moments. The game itself is entertaining if you enjoy a high scoring, offensive laden game. There is minimal checking, a decreased effort on defense, but still a heightened desire to score. Because of the fantasy style draft, it's also fun to see offensive guys skating against defensive guys who are on the same NHL team, but different All-Star teams.
Flaws: Not too many flaws to be found in this game. I suppose if you are a more defensive minded fan and enjoy the big bruising hits and line brawls, then perhaps this game is not for you. Although it may be fun to see players on the same NHL team go up against each other, the play can sometimes get a little bit choppy due to the lack of chemistry between the players. The final flaw that is a bit out of their control is that the NHL is the only league whose All-Star Game falls at the same time as the Olympics. The NBA and the NHL are the only two leagues that have had to worry about that, but basketball's All-Star Game is long before the summer Olympics. Last year, due to the Olympics, there was no All-Star Game to be had. Having elite NHL talent compete in the Winter Games was sufficient enough compensation, though.
NFL
Way Teams Are Selected: Fantasy style draft
Skills Competition?: None
What Makes It Fun To Watch: For starters, I think the fantasy style draft idea was brilliant when the NFL started that last year. With fantasy football becoming so popular, it was only a matter of time before they carried that idea into the Pro Bowl, where the teams used to be split up into NFC vs AFC. The best thing to watch during the Pro Bowl is the one on one matchups between the elite wide receivers and the elite defensive backs in the NFL. The Pro Bowl has always been a passing bonanza, and I expect that trend to continue. Last year, the two teams combined for 88 pass attempts compared to 37 rushing attempts. Notable potential matchups this year are TY Hilton vs Vontae Davis (Colt vs Colt), AJ Green and Antonio Brown vs Joe Haden (AFC North matchups), Emmanuel Sanders vs Aqib Talib (Bronco vs Bronco), and Randall Cobb vs Sam Shields (Packer vs Packer).
Flaws: Unfortunately, this is probably the most flawed All-Star Game. It might improve a bit this year by moving the Pro Bowl to the Super Bowl site, instead of in Hawaii. Hawaii is nice to visit, but apparently not worth it to check out the Pro Bowl as the crowds were usually not so great. Maybe they can generate more interest by playing the game at the Super Bowl site. The NFL is also the only league that actually makes players on two teams (the two playing in the Super Bowl) ineligible to participate. This is done for obvious reasons, but is still a shame. Darrelle Rivas, Richard Sherman, and Rob Gronkowski would probably be the three names that fans are most disappointed cannot play in the Pro Bowl. The last thing that should be improved is the lack of some kind of skills competition. The NBA, NHL, and MLB all have some kind of skills competition, but the NFL does not. Events like longest and/or most accurate throw, kicking distance and accuracy, and some kind of catch competition would be welcome.
MLB
Way Teams Are Selected: Assigned (American League vs National League)
Skills Competition?: Yes (Home Run Derby)
What Makes It Fun To Watch: As previously mentioned, I find the Home Run Derby very entertaining. The ballpark is usually packed, with fans hoping to grab one of numerous baseballs launched over the wall throughout the course of the evening. This event can sometimes even be more entertaining than the game itself. For instance, Giancarlo Stanton's mashing of the ball in the first round of the Derby last year was probably the coolest thing to watch that entire weekend. Some argue that the Derby is boring and too long, but I felt like the change from ten outs to seven last year helped to speed up the process, but still give fans the thrill of watching sluggers hammer the ball. The MLB All-Star Game also features the most direct one on one matchup of all the All-Star Games with big time pitchers going up against big time hitters. The pitchers are plenty motivated to strike out the best in the game, while the hitters want nothing more than to pop a homer off of a Clayton Kershaw type pitcher.
Flaws: Some people might disagree, probably strongly with me on this, but I disagree completely with rewarding home field advantage in the World Series to the league that won the All-Star Game. I realize that the league was trying to create interest and sell the fact that "this game counts," but I've always felt that was unfair to the two teams participating in the World Series. Consider that the Royals made up a mere 7.5% of the American League All-Stars, yet were given home field advantage because they won the All-Star Game. I get that they want the game to mean something, but I don't think home field advantage is the way to do it. An advantage should not be given in a championship series based on a game played three months prior, that a team barely participated in. The only other negative with this game is that I would like to see them switch to a fantasy draft style. I think selections would be interesting, particularly if the captains have different philosophies in terms of trying to get a lights out pitching rotation or a murderer's row of bats.
NBA
Way Teams Are Selected: Assigned (Western Conference vs Eastern Conference)
Skills Competition?: Yes (Rising Stars Challenge, Slam Dunk Competition, Three Point Shootout, Skills Challenge, Shooting Stars Competition)
What Makes It Fun To Watch: While baseball has the most direct one on one matchup, basketball is pretty close. There were a few times last year where the other players on the court just stood off to the side, as two superstars went one on one. Situations like that are fun to watch, particularly if you back a certain player (LeBron, Kobe, KD, etc.). In terms of flashiness within the game, this All-Star Game takes the cake as fast breaks, alley oops, and highlight dunks happen early and often. If the Slam Dunk Competition ever returned to its former glory, then the totality of this All-Star Weekend might beat out all the other sports.
Flaws: Speaking of which, the NBA really needs to find some way to get the Dunk Competition back to being a must watch event. I thought they actually made it worse last year by making it basically a team event by conference, de-emphasizing the individual players and dunks. Jon Wall's dunk couldn't even save last year's contest. They need to get the big name players to participate, decrease the overall length, and make it a strictly individual event. As far as the game is concerned, the lack of defense is hilarious. It's the worst out of the four games. As a fan of the Chicago Bulls, a team built on defense, it is a bit disappointing to watch players slash and drive the lane with ease. I think it would be cool to see a team lock down a team led by Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Kobe Bryant. Instead, that team of Western All-Stars scored 153 points last year, as only two teams in the last 10 years have been held to 120 points or less.
Current Favorite All-Star Games To Watch
1. NHL
2. MLB
3. NBA
4. NFL
Favorite Games To Watch If All Players Gave 100% Effort
1. NFL
2. NBA
3. NHL
4. MLB
Matty O
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Monday, January 19, 2015
Conference Championship Reviews
NFC Championship: Green Bay - 22 Seattle - 28 (OT)
Seattle's Defense Is Really Good
There are few defenses in the history of the NFL that can watch their offense or special teams turn the ball over five times, and still win the game. Keep in mind that they were also going against the best quarterback in the NFL today in Aaron Rodgers. The Seahawks turned it over twice deep in their own territory, resulting in 10 Packer points. Take those away, and the halftime score is a much less daunting 6-0 Green Bay lead, rather than the 16-0 lead they had. This defense also contributed a sack and two interceptions to the cause as well. They were stifling the Packers' offense all day, particularly in crunch time in the fourth quarter. Their performance will probably get lost because of what happened at the end, but this defense was arguably the number one reason why Seattle won the game. That shouldn't surprise anyone though.
The 2014 Packers Became The Pre-2014 Dallas Cowboys
As a Cowboy fan, watching the end of that game was like a blast from the past. The pre-2014 Cowboys seemed to do everything in their power to give away a big time game, which is what the Packers did yesterday. The amount of bone headed plays and coaching decisions may have even outdone Tony Romo at his worst. For starters, the Pack had fourth and goal from the one yard line twice, and decided to kick field goals both times. I know Seattle's defense is tough, but c'mon now. You have a pro bowl running back, fullback, and quarterback if you decide to throw. You have all those options and you decide to fold two times?! That yard might be hard to get, but it'll be easier than trying to go on a 50+ yard drive later in the game.
That was early in the game, however. The real meltdown came in the fourth quarter. Packer safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix was the butt of his own joke as he read a Wilson pass perfectly, only to drop a potential pick six. On the next Seattle drive, Morgan Burnett actually did intercept the ball, only to curl up in the fetal position without a Seahawk in the camera frame. This was a smart move...if there was under two minutes left to go. Instead, there were five minutes left to go in a 19-7 game. Even if he had run the ball back for ten yards, one less first down the offense has to get, that would have been extremely helpful.
He didn't and the Packers go three and out on their next possession. The Seahawks get the ball, score in 1:43, and kick an onside kick. Tight end Brandon Bostick leaps in the air, only to have it bounce off his hands and into the arms of a Seahawk. And yet, the game is still in the Packers' control. After shutting down the Seahawk offense for the whole game, the floodgates opened and the Pack allowed another TD in a Chip Kelly-esque 44 seconds. Still, not a problem.
The Seahawks had the lead, but it was only 20-19. If they don't get the two point conversion, then all Discount Double Check needs to do is drive them into field goal range to win the game (kicker Mason Crosby was already 4/4 on the day). Wilson scrambles to his right, has his primary and probably secondary reads taken away, and just before he is about to be sacked, throws it across the field to no one in particular. There were a couple Seahawks and a couple Packers hanging around, but the ball was in the air for so long that you pretty much assumed it would be knocked down. Ha Ha Clinton Dix, not done with his comedic performance, tracked the ball, got in good position, and then let the ball gently fall into the hands of tight end Luke Willson. I think everyone in the stadium was shocked that he caught the ball. The rest of the game played out without any more major letdowns, but the damage had been done. Remember, it was 19-7 with 11 minutes left to play.
Where Was The Read Option?
Perhaps the Seahawks wouldn't have been in such a hole had they run this play more often. The coaching staffs of both Seattle and San Francisco seem to be trying to turn their running QBs into standard pocket passers. That is not going to work. Prior to the final two drives in regulation, which resulted in TDs by the way, the read option was basically absent from the playcalling. Prior to those two drives, QB Russell Wilson had thrown four interceptions. They finally opened it up towards the end of the game, and the Packer defense had no clue what was going on. They were scrambling, out of position, and really had no answer for it. Had Seattle incorporated this earlier in the game, I don't think there would have been an overtime as Seattle would have ran away with this game.
The Packers Need A Third Option
Seems weird to say since they already have a pro bowl WR (Jordy Nelson), a pro bowl running back (Eddie Lacy), and a pro bowl fullback (John Kuhn). Davante Adams has shown flashes this year, but put up a one catch for seven yards line yesterday. Maybe he'll wind up being that reliable third option, but he's still fairly raw. The position they should be focusing on while trying to find that missing third piece is tight end. Not to pile on with tight end Brandon Bostick blowing the onside kick recovery, but the Packers' tight ends haven't shown up this year. The Packers are one of the few prolific passing offenses that doesn't have a reliable tight end. The Pats have the Gronk, the Broncos have Julius Thomas, the Cowboys have Jason Witten, the Saints have Jimmy Graham, the Colts saw both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener produce, and the Chargers have Antonio Gates. Whether it is drafting one or developing one currently on their roster, I think a reliable tight end could be the key to overcoming great defenses like Seattle and Buffalo, whom they lost to this year.
AFC Championship: Indianapolis - 7 New England - 45
Luck's Postseason Struggles Continue
I think Luck would rather face the '85 Bears than the Patriot defense. For whatever reason, he just can't seem to figure out New England. He had another terrible offensive game as he threw for 126 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. Both of his interceptions were terrible decisions and 100% his fault. To be fair to Luck, his pass catchers dropped a few balls, but they've been doing that all year. Luck has still been able to overcome that, but couldn't last night. On a positive note, this is still only his third year and he has reached the postseason each year. A lot of third year players would love to be in his situation. They still have TY Hilton, Dan Herron has shown flashes, and Donte Moncrief has potential. I think once that offensive line is improved, Luck should be able to take this team to the Super Bowl sooner rather than later.
Brady Can Still Sling It
A week after watching his long time rival Peyton Manning fade against this same Colt defense, Brady and the Pats surged from beginning to end. 226 yards isn't exactly lighting it up, but he did it with a 66% completion percentage as well as three TDs. He was comfortable in the pocket, and even scrambled, albeit awkwardly, for a nine yard gain. Many people, including myself, wrote him off early in the year, but he seems to be back to Golden Boy Brady form. If he wins this Super Bowl, he has to be considered the greatest QB to ever play, without question. The scary part is that, win or lose, he'll probably play another few seasons.
What The Formation?
Bill Belichick is one crafty dude. One week after running a controversial formation against Baltimore, Belichick busted out the same crazy formation more than once against Indy. Basically, you line up only four linemen, declare one of your players on the outside ineligible, and see if the defense knows what the heck is going on before you snap it. The Colts at least got a sack one of the times they ran that formation, but were backpedaling the rest of the game. Then they had numerous jumbo formations where they declared one of their big linemen eligible. One of those plays resulted in a TD as tackle Nate Solder, lined up as a tackle, declared eligible, slipped out from the formation, caught the Brady pass, and rumbled for a 16 yard TD that gave the Pats a firm grasp on the game to start the second half. Expect to see more of these formations, and probably some new ones, to try and confuse Seattle and the Legion of Boom.
Let Me Be Blount
Has anyone had a more up and down season than LaGarrette Blount? After putting up 772 yards and seven TDs, along with being a surprisingly good returner in 2013, Blount was let go by the Pats this past offseason and signed with the Steelers. This seemed like a great fit as Blount has that big back build and seemed like a great compliment to Le'Veon Bell. Instead, his only good game came in a blowout in Week 3 in Carolina as he spent most of his time in Pittsburgh on the bench. The straw that broke the camel's back was a Week 11 Monday Night Football game in Tennessee where Blount received zero carries, but the Steelers won. He reportedly left the team and locker room early despite the team's success. Mike Tomlin, being a no nonsense coach, cut him.
The Patriots, meanwhile, had been struggling to find a running back as Jonas Gray was a flash in the pan, Shane Vereen is not built for big workloads, and Stevan Ridley had been placed on injured reserve. Blount was likely on a short leash given how things ended in Pittsburgh, but delivered back in New England and seemed like a new, happier player. Go back to yesterday, and Blount was one of the main reasons why the Patriots won so convincingly as he amassed 148 yards and 3 TDs on the ground and wore the Colts down. Just goes to show that sometimes a change of scenery can be a good and bad thing for a player.
Early Super Bowl Discussion
The deciding factor of this game will be Josh McDaniels and the schemes the Patriots come up with against the Seahawk defense. With two weeks to prepare, I think the Seahawks will be ready for the Patriots' crazy formations they have shown the past couple weeks, but I'll bet that New England cooks up something special just for this game. The Patriots, probably more than any other team in the league, also do a great job at spreading the ball around. Consider that in last night's game, of the 23 passes that were completed by the Patriots, 14 were caught by wide receivers, three were caught by a running back, four were caught by tight ends, one was caught by a fullback, and one was caught by an offensive tackle. This should make it harder on the Seahawks and should spread them out more. In the end, I think the Pats are able to confuse the Seahawk defense enough, as Seattle doesn't find enough big plays to bail them out. The Patriots are arguably the most disciplined team in the league so I put a zero percent chance on something like what happened to Green Bay, happening to them.
Prediction: Patriots - 27 Seattle - 20
Matty O
Seattle's Defense Is Really Good
There are few defenses in the history of the NFL that can watch their offense or special teams turn the ball over five times, and still win the game. Keep in mind that they were also going against the best quarterback in the NFL today in Aaron Rodgers. The Seahawks turned it over twice deep in their own territory, resulting in 10 Packer points. Take those away, and the halftime score is a much less daunting 6-0 Green Bay lead, rather than the 16-0 lead they had. This defense also contributed a sack and two interceptions to the cause as well. They were stifling the Packers' offense all day, particularly in crunch time in the fourth quarter. Their performance will probably get lost because of what happened at the end, but this defense was arguably the number one reason why Seattle won the game. That shouldn't surprise anyone though.
The 2014 Packers Became The Pre-2014 Dallas Cowboys
As a Cowboy fan, watching the end of that game was like a blast from the past. The pre-2014 Cowboys seemed to do everything in their power to give away a big time game, which is what the Packers did yesterday. The amount of bone headed plays and coaching decisions may have even outdone Tony Romo at his worst. For starters, the Pack had fourth and goal from the one yard line twice, and decided to kick field goals both times. I know Seattle's defense is tough, but c'mon now. You have a pro bowl running back, fullback, and quarterback if you decide to throw. You have all those options and you decide to fold two times?! That yard might be hard to get, but it'll be easier than trying to go on a 50+ yard drive later in the game.
That was early in the game, however. The real meltdown came in the fourth quarter. Packer safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix was the butt of his own joke as he read a Wilson pass perfectly, only to drop a potential pick six. On the next Seattle drive, Morgan Burnett actually did intercept the ball, only to curl up in the fetal position without a Seahawk in the camera frame. This was a smart move...if there was under two minutes left to go. Instead, there were five minutes left to go in a 19-7 game. Even if he had run the ball back for ten yards, one less first down the offense has to get, that would have been extremely helpful.
He didn't and the Packers go three and out on their next possession. The Seahawks get the ball, score in 1:43, and kick an onside kick. Tight end Brandon Bostick leaps in the air, only to have it bounce off his hands and into the arms of a Seahawk. And yet, the game is still in the Packers' control. After shutting down the Seahawk offense for the whole game, the floodgates opened and the Pack allowed another TD in a Chip Kelly-esque 44 seconds. Still, not a problem.
The Seahawks had the lead, but it was only 20-19. If they don't get the two point conversion, then all Discount Double Check needs to do is drive them into field goal range to win the game (kicker Mason Crosby was already 4/4 on the day). Wilson scrambles to his right, has his primary and probably secondary reads taken away, and just before he is about to be sacked, throws it across the field to no one in particular. There were a couple Seahawks and a couple Packers hanging around, but the ball was in the air for so long that you pretty much assumed it would be knocked down. Ha Ha Clinton Dix, not done with his comedic performance, tracked the ball, got in good position, and then let the ball gently fall into the hands of tight end Luke Willson. I think everyone in the stadium was shocked that he caught the ball. The rest of the game played out without any more major letdowns, but the damage had been done. Remember, it was 19-7 with 11 minutes left to play.
Where Was The Read Option?
Perhaps the Seahawks wouldn't have been in such a hole had they run this play more often. The coaching staffs of both Seattle and San Francisco seem to be trying to turn their running QBs into standard pocket passers. That is not going to work. Prior to the final two drives in regulation, which resulted in TDs by the way, the read option was basically absent from the playcalling. Prior to those two drives, QB Russell Wilson had thrown four interceptions. They finally opened it up towards the end of the game, and the Packer defense had no clue what was going on. They were scrambling, out of position, and really had no answer for it. Had Seattle incorporated this earlier in the game, I don't think there would have been an overtime as Seattle would have ran away with this game.
The Packers Need A Third Option
Seems weird to say since they already have a pro bowl WR (Jordy Nelson), a pro bowl running back (Eddie Lacy), and a pro bowl fullback (John Kuhn). Davante Adams has shown flashes this year, but put up a one catch for seven yards line yesterday. Maybe he'll wind up being that reliable third option, but he's still fairly raw. The position they should be focusing on while trying to find that missing third piece is tight end. Not to pile on with tight end Brandon Bostick blowing the onside kick recovery, but the Packers' tight ends haven't shown up this year. The Packers are one of the few prolific passing offenses that doesn't have a reliable tight end. The Pats have the Gronk, the Broncos have Julius Thomas, the Cowboys have Jason Witten, the Saints have Jimmy Graham, the Colts saw both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener produce, and the Chargers have Antonio Gates. Whether it is drafting one or developing one currently on their roster, I think a reliable tight end could be the key to overcoming great defenses like Seattle and Buffalo, whom they lost to this year.
AFC Championship: Indianapolis - 7 New England - 45
Luck's Postseason Struggles Continue
I think Luck would rather face the '85 Bears than the Patriot defense. For whatever reason, he just can't seem to figure out New England. He had another terrible offensive game as he threw for 126 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. Both of his interceptions were terrible decisions and 100% his fault. To be fair to Luck, his pass catchers dropped a few balls, but they've been doing that all year. Luck has still been able to overcome that, but couldn't last night. On a positive note, this is still only his third year and he has reached the postseason each year. A lot of third year players would love to be in his situation. They still have TY Hilton, Dan Herron has shown flashes, and Donte Moncrief has potential. I think once that offensive line is improved, Luck should be able to take this team to the Super Bowl sooner rather than later.
Brady Can Still Sling It
A week after watching his long time rival Peyton Manning fade against this same Colt defense, Brady and the Pats surged from beginning to end. 226 yards isn't exactly lighting it up, but he did it with a 66% completion percentage as well as three TDs. He was comfortable in the pocket, and even scrambled, albeit awkwardly, for a nine yard gain. Many people, including myself, wrote him off early in the year, but he seems to be back to Golden Boy Brady form. If he wins this Super Bowl, he has to be considered the greatest QB to ever play, without question. The scary part is that, win or lose, he'll probably play another few seasons.
What The Formation?
Bill Belichick is one crafty dude. One week after running a controversial formation against Baltimore, Belichick busted out the same crazy formation more than once against Indy. Basically, you line up only four linemen, declare one of your players on the outside ineligible, and see if the defense knows what the heck is going on before you snap it. The Colts at least got a sack one of the times they ran that formation, but were backpedaling the rest of the game. Then they had numerous jumbo formations where they declared one of their big linemen eligible. One of those plays resulted in a TD as tackle Nate Solder, lined up as a tackle, declared eligible, slipped out from the formation, caught the Brady pass, and rumbled for a 16 yard TD that gave the Pats a firm grasp on the game to start the second half. Expect to see more of these formations, and probably some new ones, to try and confuse Seattle and the Legion of Boom.
Let Me Be Blount
Has anyone had a more up and down season than LaGarrette Blount? After putting up 772 yards and seven TDs, along with being a surprisingly good returner in 2013, Blount was let go by the Pats this past offseason and signed with the Steelers. This seemed like a great fit as Blount has that big back build and seemed like a great compliment to Le'Veon Bell. Instead, his only good game came in a blowout in Week 3 in Carolina as he spent most of his time in Pittsburgh on the bench. The straw that broke the camel's back was a Week 11 Monday Night Football game in Tennessee where Blount received zero carries, but the Steelers won. He reportedly left the team and locker room early despite the team's success. Mike Tomlin, being a no nonsense coach, cut him.
The Patriots, meanwhile, had been struggling to find a running back as Jonas Gray was a flash in the pan, Shane Vereen is not built for big workloads, and Stevan Ridley had been placed on injured reserve. Blount was likely on a short leash given how things ended in Pittsburgh, but delivered back in New England and seemed like a new, happier player. Go back to yesterday, and Blount was one of the main reasons why the Patriots won so convincingly as he amassed 148 yards and 3 TDs on the ground and wore the Colts down. Just goes to show that sometimes a change of scenery can be a good and bad thing for a player.
Early Super Bowl Discussion
The deciding factor of this game will be Josh McDaniels and the schemes the Patriots come up with against the Seahawk defense. With two weeks to prepare, I think the Seahawks will be ready for the Patriots' crazy formations they have shown the past couple weeks, but I'll bet that New England cooks up something special just for this game. The Patriots, probably more than any other team in the league, also do a great job at spreading the ball around. Consider that in last night's game, of the 23 passes that were completed by the Patriots, 14 were caught by wide receivers, three were caught by a running back, four were caught by tight ends, one was caught by a fullback, and one was caught by an offensive tackle. This should make it harder on the Seahawks and should spread them out more. In the end, I think the Pats are able to confuse the Seahawk defense enough, as Seattle doesn't find enough big plays to bail them out. The Patriots are arguably the most disciplined team in the league so I put a zero percent chance on something like what happened to Green Bay, happening to them.
Prediction: Patriots - 27 Seattle - 20
Matty O
Saturday, January 3, 2015
NFL.com Playoff Challenge
Every year, NFL.com offers a free Playoff Challenge game. It's basically standard fantasy football scoring with a twist thrown in. Basically, each week you choose a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, K, and DEF. If the person you selected gets eliminated in any round, then you can acquire a player on a team that is still alive. For instance, if you choose Cam Newton as your QB this round and the Panthers lose, then you can select Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson for next week.
The twist is that players receive multiplier bonuses for however long they are on your team. For example, if Jonathan Stewart runs for 100 yards this week, you would get 10 points. If he does it in the Divisional Round, you would get 20 points (x2 multiplier for being on your team for two weeks). If he does it in the Conference Round, you would get 30; and if he does it in the Super Bowl, you would get 40. This makes strategy very interesting during Wild Card Weekend. You can still select a player whose team is on a bye this week and just take a zero for that position this week. Since they will have been on your team for two weeks, however, you would be guaranteed that x2 multiplier next week.
So, let's say that person A picks Jeremy Hill as their running back. Hill goes off for 150 yards and a TD, which would give him 21 points. Not bad...if the Bengals win. If they lose, then person B, who chose CJ Anderson as their back, would need Anderson to run for only 45 yards and a TD to match that point total. Person A might pick up Anderson to replace Hill, but would only receive 10.5 points since he would have only been on that person's team for one week.
You can see how advantageous it is to load up on players that you think will be in the Super Bowl. I actually came pretty close to winning the whole thing last year, but chose too many Broncos and not enough Seahawks. Loading up on one team is obviously high risk, high reward, but it's also the best chance you have of beating the thousands of people that enter this game. Since it's free and you're not really risking anything, you might as well go all in.
My Wildcard Round Roster
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Eddie Lacy
RB - LeGarrette Blount
WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - Randall Cobb
TE - Rob Gronkowski
K - Stephen Gostkowski
DEF - Seattle
Click here to fill out your own entry!
Matty O
The twist is that players receive multiplier bonuses for however long they are on your team. For example, if Jonathan Stewart runs for 100 yards this week, you would get 10 points. If he does it in the Divisional Round, you would get 20 points (x2 multiplier for being on your team for two weeks). If he does it in the Conference Round, you would get 30; and if he does it in the Super Bowl, you would get 40. This makes strategy very interesting during Wild Card Weekend. You can still select a player whose team is on a bye this week and just take a zero for that position this week. Since they will have been on your team for two weeks, however, you would be guaranteed that x2 multiplier next week.
So, let's say that person A picks Jeremy Hill as their running back. Hill goes off for 150 yards and a TD, which would give him 21 points. Not bad...if the Bengals win. If they lose, then person B, who chose CJ Anderson as their back, would need Anderson to run for only 45 yards and a TD to match that point total. Person A might pick up Anderson to replace Hill, but would only receive 10.5 points since he would have only been on that person's team for one week.
You can see how advantageous it is to load up on players that you think will be in the Super Bowl. I actually came pretty close to winning the whole thing last year, but chose too many Broncos and not enough Seahawks. Loading up on one team is obviously high risk, high reward, but it's also the best chance you have of beating the thousands of people that enter this game. Since it's free and you're not really risking anything, you might as well go all in.
My Wildcard Round Roster
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Eddie Lacy
RB - LeGarrette Blount
WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - Randall Cobb
TE - Rob Gronkowski
K - Stephen Gostkowski
DEF - Seattle
Click here to fill out your own entry!
Matty O
Friday, January 2, 2015
AFC Playoff Preview
New England Patriots
12-4, #1 seed, AFC East Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 43-17 vs Cincinnati, won 43-21 vs Denver, won 42-20 at Indianapolis, won 34-9 vs Detroit, lost 26-21 at Green Bay
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Offensive Playcalling - For anyone that plays fantasy football, particularly those who owned Patriot running backs, you know what I'm talking about. The Patriots, more than anyone else in football, will tailor their game plan to attack the weakness of their opponent and avoid the strength. For example, they faced the Jets (twice) and the Lions who both have outstanding rush defenses. In the first game against the Jets, the Pats ran it 15 times, then ran it 24 times in their second meeting, and ran it 20 times against the Lions in a game where the Pats led by a comfortable margin all of the second half. Conversely, when the Pats played the Colts, a team that defends the pass much better than the run, the Pats ran it 44 times and won by 22 points. Whoever they face in any round of the playoffs, you can bet the players will be put in the best position to succeed.
Pass Catchers - Rob Gronkowski gets all the media attention, but Julian Edelmen, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen have all contributed their fair share of help in the passing game as well. Edelmen is a pass catching machine, LaFell is a big bodied receiver that Brady didn't have last year, Vereen has great hands for a running back, and Gronk is simply a matchup nightmare no matter who they are playing. It gives Brady a lot more options than he had last year, making their aerial attack tougher to defend when they decide to attack an opponent that way.
Revis Island Is Back - After a year of being stranded in Tampa Bay, Darrelle Revis signed with the Pats in the offseason as they let Aqib Talib walk in the offseason. Anyone who thought Revis may have lost a step while he was in Tampa has been proven wrong this season. He is back to being one of, if not the best, shutdown corners in the NFL. With potential AFC matchups against TY Hilton, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Demaryius Thomas on deck, the Pats will need Revis to maintain his elite level of play.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Depth - I'll be honest, it's going to be hard to come up with three reasons why the Patriots should be worried. One concern that every team has to deal with is depth. The Pats have shown they can kind of plug and play with any running back, but receiver is a different story. If LaFell or Edelmen go down, then Danny Amendola, Josh Boyce, and Brian Tyms would likely be called upon to step up. If even one of them goes down, you could argue that the Pats would have the weakest receiving corps out of any of the playoff teams, except maybe Carolina.
Rust? - Again, we're reaching here, but a lot of Patriot starters will have had essentially two weeks of extra rest as most either played very little or not at all in the meaningless season finale against Buffalo. Whichever team they face in the divisional round will be coming into Foxborough off a win, and is sure to be confident. All it takes is for a team to gain a little confidence and put everything together to pull the upset. I'm sure the coaching staff is doing all they can to balance rest and keeping players sharp, but you just never know.
Recent History - Since they are the #1 seed, I suppose it's not out of the question to discuss their Super Bowl prospects. Despite their early Super Bowl success together, Brady and Bill Belichick have struggled recently to capture their fourth together. They haven't won a Super Bowl since 2005, despite making it and losing to the Giants twice since then. Peyton Manning's Broncos are still hanging around as well, as the Broncos were the team that ousted the Pats last year. I doubt that they are personally feeling the pressure to win another one, but the fan base is certainly getting anxious with all these close, but no cigar calls.
Team They Would Hate To See - Baltimore
Team They Would Love To See - Indianapolis
Denver Broncos
12-4, #2 seed, AFC West Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 31-24 vs Indianapolis, lost 26-20 at Seattle, won 41-20 vs Arizona, lost 43-21 at New England, lost 37-28 at Cincinnati
Three Reasons To Be Excited
C.J. Anderson - For the second year in a row, this Bronco team has taken a relative nobody and made him into a star. This team revitalized Knowshon Moreno's bust of a young career last year, and have now turned second year pro Anderson into a workhorse back. Anderson, buried on the depth chart behind the likes of Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman early in the year, got his big break in mid-November and has run with the job ever since. He has 849 yards and eight TDs, despite getting double digit carries in only seven games. With the Broncos shifting to a more run heavy approach, the young Anderson will be counted on to carry the load in the playoffs.
Defensive Makeover - The Broncos' offseason moves were fueled by the blowout loss they suffered in the Super Bowl to the Seahawks. Step one was to get tougher and better on defense. They hit the jackpot by bringing in Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, and TJ Ward. Oh, and Von Miller was already waiting on the roster as well. This unit now ranks third in total defense compared to finishing 19th last season. They have the best defense in the AFC and will need it with Pittsburgh and Indy's aerial attacks or Cincy and Baltimore's ground attacks coming to Denver next weekend.
Revenge - The Broncos, maybe more than any other team in the playoffs, will be extremely disappointed if they don't win, not just make, the Super Bowl. As I mentioned earlier, everything in the offseason was geared towards going back to the big game and winning it all. This crusade sort of reminds me of the Spurs last year after they had lost the year prior in heartbreaking fashion to the Heat. The Spurs didn't care about regular season, seeding, or any of that stuff. They just wanted to win the title they believed was theirs. Denver has that kind of feel this season. Even though they are the number one seed in the NFC, I have a feeling that a lot of Bronco players would love to see the Seahawks as their opponent in the Super Bowl.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
The Curious Case Of Peyton Manning - This year started off like any other for Manning. Throw for 300 yards here, get another 400 over there. It was a shock if he didn't throw for three or more TDs each week. Then came the infamous, and still puzzling, Rams game where Peyton threw it 54 times, but only had one TD to go with two interceptions in a 22-7 Bronco loss. He performed well against Miami the following game, but has since seen the offense focus on the run as well as seen his performance drop. Since the Miami game in Week 12, Manning has thrown for over 300 yards just once, and has registered a five to six TD to interception ratio. Optimists will say that the running game is helping out the offense as a whole and Peyton is fine. I'm not so sure. If need be, can he flip the switch to turn into a precision passing machine once again? Only time will tell.
Back To Foxborough - These past couple seasons, Foxborough has been a nightmare place for the Broncos to play. Last year, the Pats came back from 24-0 down at halftime to stun the Broncos in overtime. This year, there was no comeback to be had by either side as the Pats put the pedal to the medal, particularly in the second quarter, to crush the Broncos by 22. If the Pats and Broncos both survive the divisional round, then the Broncos will have to go back to the East Coast and try to win at a place that has been so unforgiving to them.
The AFC - Like New England, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with Denver. The AFC field should at least present some matchup issues. The Bengals just beat the Broncos a couple of weeks ago. The Colts made it close near the end in Denver the first game of the year, Baltimore has the personnel to stop Denver's rushing attack, and Pittsburgh has arguably the best passing attack Denver has faced. Throw in New England, who already beat Denver this year, and you have a challenging field to navigate.
Team They Would Hate To See - New England
Team They Would Love To See - Indianapolis
Pittsburgh Steelers
11-5, #3 seed, AFC North Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 26-6 at Baltimore, won 37-19 at Carolina, won 51-34 vs Indianapolis, won 43-23 vs Baltimore, won 42-21 at Cincinnati, won 27-17 vs Cincinnati
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Antonio Brown - I have no idea why there isn't more conversation about him being MVP. He basically does it all as he's a great route runner, is phenomenal after the catch, returns punts, runs sweeps, and has even thrown for a TD this year. Big Ben has, and will, look his way early and often no matter who they are playing. Revis is the best AFC corner, so I am interested to see those two go at it if the cookie crumbles that way. In the Steelers' six games against current playoff teams, Brown had at least 90 yards in each of them, topped out at 144 against Baltimore, and scored six TDs.
Coming In Hot - To get their lofty seed, the Steelers needed to get hot down the stretch. The division was still up for grabs as the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers were all in it. The Steelers used a home and home with Cincinnati, as well as a trip to Atlanta and a game at home against the Chiefs to earn the AFC North title. They won all four by at least one TD. Now they get their division rival with whom they split the season series. If they clear that hurdle, then it's off to Denver to face Peyton and the Broncos.
Receivers Not Named Brown - Yes, they do exist on this roster. Markus Wheaton is talented, but needs to be more consistent. Heath Miller isn't all that talented, but is very consistent. Martavis Bryant is the big play maker as he is averaging 21.1 yards per catch and is second on the team in TDs with eight. With Le'Veon Bell out for this game, I expect the Steelers to try and air it out more than normal. Brown is talented, but he can't do it all. One, if not all of these guys, will need to step up to make up for the loss of Bell.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
No Le'Veon Bell - This is a huge loss. Bell is not only a great downhill runner, but he is extremely talented catching passes out of the backfield. While he struggled in the two games with the Ravens this season, he is still more of a threat than any replacement the Steelers will put in. Bell is also an above average blocker for Big Ben in the passing game and his presence will be missed on passing downs. I expect the Ravens to spread their defense and defend the pass and leave the run stopping to the front six or seven guys. Even with a lack of production in the Baltimore games this year, it will be a significant piece missing in the way this offense works.
Not Your Father's Steelers' Defense - While it's true that they have improved the past four games, they are still nowhere near as frightening as they once were. They gave up 26 points and 323 yards in their first meeting, and followed that up by giving up 23 points and 332 yards in their second meeting. Arguably their worst performance of the season came in Week 13 when they lost 35-32 at home to New Orleans. They gave up 393 yards, allowed a 100 yard rusher, and recorded zero turnovers. That kind of performance won't cut it against the Peyton Mannings, Tom Bradys, and even Joe Flaccos of the world.
Inconsistent - The Steelers have been a hard team to figure out all year. They almost blew a 24 point lead against the Browns the first game of the season. They crushed Carolina on Sunday Night Football, only to come back home and lose to the Bucs at the buzzer. They get blown out in Cleveland, only to see Big Ben throw for 14 TDs the next three weeks. Then, they lost in the upset of the season to the lowly Jets, and almost lost a week and a day later in Tennessee on Monday Night. After their bye was the New Orleans game, before ripping off four straight Ws. All it takes is four good games to win you the Super Bowl, but it just takes one bad stinker to send you home for the season.
Team They Would Hate To See - New England
Team They Would Love To See - Cincinnati
Indianapolis Colts
11-5, #4 seed, AFC South Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 31-24 at Denver, won 20-13 vs Baltimore, won 27-0 vs Cincinnati, lost 51-34 at Pittsburgh, lost 42-20 vs New England, lost 42-7 at Dallas
Three Reasons To Be Excited
First Round Opponent - The Colts could not have asked for a better opponent in the first round. Not only is this the same team that the Colts shutout in Week 7, but the latest news is that star wide receiver AJ Green is unlikely to play. Green didn't play in their regular season matchup and the Bengals struggled to do anything offensively. They mustered a measly 135 total yards and were completely embarrassed. Back at Lucas Oil with the Colts healthy and the Bengals Green-less, I think the result will end up the same, though probably not a shutout.
Andrew Luck - Ever since he was drafted, he was seen as the savior of this franchise since Manning departed for Denver. He has delivered...sort of. He has gotten them to the playoffs each year he has been there, and even delivered one of the most ridiculous comebacks in NFL history with their come from behind 45-44 win over the Chiefs. The problem is that in his two other playoff games, he has two TDs, five interceptions, and lost both of those games. The good news is he's young, and quarterbacks his age are lucky if they have even gotten their teams to the playoffs by now. One of these years he will perform well in multiple playoff games. Colt fans are hoping this is the year.
Pass Defense - The Colts' pass defense has very quietly become an excellent unit in the NFL. Led by cornerback Vontae Davis, the Colts rank 12th in passing yards against to go along with 12 interceptions. They won't completely terminate a passing game like Seattle, but they will slow it down enough to frustrate an opponent. This unit is a big reason why Cincy had such a hard time doing anything in their first matchup without Green. There are plenty of talented pass catchers on the AFC side of the bracket, so this unit could be the difference between a quick or long run in the playoffs.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Can't Run The Ball - They seem to just give up on it during a game if it's not working. The Colts are first in the league in pass attempts, but are only middle of the pack in rushing attempts. Trent Richardson is not at all what they thought they were getting when they traded for him a year ago, and Ahmad Bradshaw's injury left only Daniel "Boom" Herron to pick up the slack. He's shown flashes, but has also been shut down, particularly the last four games of the season. This inability to run puts more of the work on Luck's shoulders, which inevitably leads to more interceptions and turnovers that kill drives. I think they can get away with it against Cincy, but they will need to find some kind of balance in the next round.
Run Defense - While the back end has held its own this year, the front seven certainly has not. In fact, in the last game of the season, they gave up 94 yards to Shonn Greene. That's not good. Exposing the Colt run defense is one way that the Bengals can pull the upset. Giovanni Bernard was Cincy's lead back in the first matchup as they only attempted 12 runs all game. Bernard has now been relegated to a backup role as Jeremy Hill has emerged as their starter. Hill is hot as of late and could very well gash this unit if Indy doesn't commit guys to stop the run.
Letdown - While their prospects for a win this weekend look good, their long term future looks much more grim. The Colts have fallen pretty flat in most of their key matchups this year. They are 2-4 against current playoff teams and three of them, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas, blew them out. If the Colts are quickly out once again, Luck will start to carry around the reputation of someone that can get to the playoffs, but are never a real threat.
Team They Would Hate To See - New England
Team They Would Love To See - Baltimore
Cincinnati Bengals
10-5-1, #5 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 23-16 at Baltimore, lost 43-17 at New England, tied 37-37 vs Carolina, lost 27-0 at Indianapolis, won 27-24 vs Baltimore, lost 42-21 vs Pittsburgh, lost 27-17 at Pittsburgh
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Jeremy Hill - The rookie out of LSU, Hill has emerged as the number one guy in the backfield for the Bengals and one of the better running backs in the entire league. He was the change of pace back early in the season to Giovanni Bernard, but now Hill is the one getting 20+ carries a game. He finished the year strong, rushing for at least 100 yards in each of the final three games. With AJ Green likely out, Hill will need to perform more like a veteran than a rookie if the Bengals are to avenge their shutout loss to the Colts.
Mohamed Sanu Is Ready - Perhaps when Green missed time in the regular season, it was a blessing in disguise. Green missed basically the entire month of October, leaving the WR1 position for the Bengals up for grabs. Sanu stepped up to the plate and went for 299 yards and a TD in the three games that AJ missed. He had little success once Green returned to the lineup, but will be counted on to be the go-to guy once again. He proved that he can perform in the starting wide receiver role and will look to carry this limited Bengal aerial attack.
The Game Is Being Played During The Day - With the AJ Green news and the way their first meeting went, the Bengals really don't have a lot to be excited about. If they're looking for little victories, however, it is that they don't have to play in prime time. Save for their Week 16 win over the Broncos, Andy Dalton and the Bengals traditionally play poorly at night. No one knows why, but they just do. This one will be taking place at noon central time so at least the Bengals don't have to deal with that mental block.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Andy Dalton - One of the safest bets in sports is to bet that Dalton will lose this first playoff game, as well as perform poorly in it. The Bengals have reached the postseason the last three years and were one and done each time. In those three games, Dalton has one TD, six interceptions, and a lost fumble. This includes a 31-10 beat down by the Texans in the 2011 season, who were led by none other than TJ Yates. Even if the Bengals win this game, it will be on the back of Hill, not on the arm of Dalton.
Defense - Their defense as a whole, just isn't good. They're 20th in rushing yards allowed per game and 20th in passing yards allowed per game. The Colts rolled up 506 yards of offense in their meeting in October. It would have been worse had the Colts not turned it over twice. Even though they got a late season win against the Broncos, they still gave up 385 yards that game and followed it up by giving up 346 yards to Pittsburgh with the division title on the line. Luck will carve this defense up if they don't scheme some ways to confuse the Colts.
History - Three straight one and done playoff years to go along with years of ineptitude from this franchise. The loss to the Colts earlier in the year is a mental hurdle to get over, even if the players won't explicitly admit it. They will have to battle the history of losing in the playoffs that surrounds this team each game they get a chance to play this postseason.
Team They Would Hate To See - Pittsburgh
Team They Would Love To See - Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
10-6, #6 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 23-16 vs Cincinnati, won 26-6 vs Pittsburgh, won 38-10 vs Carolina, lost 20-13 at Indianapolis, lost 27-24 at Cincinnati, lost 43-23 at Pittsburgh
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Run Defense - This isn't a surprise. For as long as this franchise has existed, they have prided themselves on playing stout defense, particularly against the run. Nose tackle and run stopping extraordinaire Haloti Ngata will return from suspension for the playoffs. They are fourth in rushing yards against and have shut down the likes of Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram. Bell being out is just another boost for an already intimidating unit. I'd be surprised if the Steelers rush for more than 50 yards this game.
The Smiths - Steve Smith came over to Baltimore in the offseason, determined to prove to everyone, Carolina in particular, that he still had plenty left in the tank. He has responded by leading the team in receptions and yards. Torrey Smith, meanwhile, took a while to get going this year but has really come on late. He has yet to clear 100 yards in a game, but is a TD producing machine, as he leads the team with 11, including five in the last five games of the season. They are a very underrated wide receiver duo and should give the Steeler secondary plenty of problems.
Joe Flacco - When Flacco gets hot, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Ravens' 2012 Super Bowl run was almost all because Flacco was unstoppable. He threw for over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs in four games with zero interceptions. He's had two red hot games this year, against Carolina and in Tampa Bay. He went for 327 yards and three TDs in the Carolina win, and threw for 306 yards five TDs in the Tampa game. Zero interceptions in both.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Joe Flacco - With the good Flacco, however, there is also bad Flacco. Among the good and average games that he puts up, he'll also put up some head scratchers. Only two weeks after his masterpiece in Tampa, Flacco went into Cincy and threw for 195 yards, zero TDs, two interceptions, and a QB rating of 43.1. Somehow, they only lost by three. This is the same guy, who in 2012, posted a 0.3 QBR which rates QBs on a scale from 0-100. 0.3! He can single-handedly carry a team to a Super Bowl, as well as single-handedly bury a team any given game.
Secondary - The Ravens' pass defense has been roasted this year, particularly by Big Ben. The Ravens have multiple starters on injured reserve and their replacements haven't fared well. The healthy Raven secondary held Big Ben to 217 yards, zero TDs, and an interception in Week 2. A more banged up version gave up 340 yards, six TDs, and zero interceptions in Pittsburgh. They played better down the stretch, albeit against Jacksonville, Houston, and Cleveland. They'll face much stiffer tests in the postseason.
Depth - I already mentioned how banged up the secondary is. They're running out of people to replace them. Offensively is where the concern is. With Ray Rice being suspended, the Ravens have been forced to figure out their backfield as they go. Justin Forsett has been a god send, but there's not too much after that. The underwhelming Bernard Pierce would be first in line, followed by season long practice squad member Fitzgerald Toussaint. If one of the Smiths were to go down, wide receiver would be left open for Kamar Aiken, Jacoby Jones, and Marlon Brown. No thanks.
Team They Would Hate To See - Indianapolis
Team They Would Love To See - New England
Matty O
12-4, #1 seed, AFC East Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 43-17 vs Cincinnati, won 43-21 vs Denver, won 42-20 at Indianapolis, won 34-9 vs Detroit, lost 26-21 at Green Bay
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Offensive Playcalling - For anyone that plays fantasy football, particularly those who owned Patriot running backs, you know what I'm talking about. The Patriots, more than anyone else in football, will tailor their game plan to attack the weakness of their opponent and avoid the strength. For example, they faced the Jets (twice) and the Lions who both have outstanding rush defenses. In the first game against the Jets, the Pats ran it 15 times, then ran it 24 times in their second meeting, and ran it 20 times against the Lions in a game where the Pats led by a comfortable margin all of the second half. Conversely, when the Pats played the Colts, a team that defends the pass much better than the run, the Pats ran it 44 times and won by 22 points. Whoever they face in any round of the playoffs, you can bet the players will be put in the best position to succeed.
Pass Catchers - Rob Gronkowski gets all the media attention, but Julian Edelmen, Brandon LaFell, and Shane Vereen have all contributed their fair share of help in the passing game as well. Edelmen is a pass catching machine, LaFell is a big bodied receiver that Brady didn't have last year, Vereen has great hands for a running back, and Gronk is simply a matchup nightmare no matter who they are playing. It gives Brady a lot more options than he had last year, making their aerial attack tougher to defend when they decide to attack an opponent that way.
Revis Island Is Back - After a year of being stranded in Tampa Bay, Darrelle Revis signed with the Pats in the offseason as they let Aqib Talib walk in the offseason. Anyone who thought Revis may have lost a step while he was in Tampa has been proven wrong this season. He is back to being one of, if not the best, shutdown corners in the NFL. With potential AFC matchups against TY Hilton, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Demaryius Thomas on deck, the Pats will need Revis to maintain his elite level of play.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Depth - I'll be honest, it's going to be hard to come up with three reasons why the Patriots should be worried. One concern that every team has to deal with is depth. The Pats have shown they can kind of plug and play with any running back, but receiver is a different story. If LaFell or Edelmen go down, then Danny Amendola, Josh Boyce, and Brian Tyms would likely be called upon to step up. If even one of them goes down, you could argue that the Pats would have the weakest receiving corps out of any of the playoff teams, except maybe Carolina.
Rust? - Again, we're reaching here, but a lot of Patriot starters will have had essentially two weeks of extra rest as most either played very little or not at all in the meaningless season finale against Buffalo. Whichever team they face in the divisional round will be coming into Foxborough off a win, and is sure to be confident. All it takes is for a team to gain a little confidence and put everything together to pull the upset. I'm sure the coaching staff is doing all they can to balance rest and keeping players sharp, but you just never know.
Recent History - Since they are the #1 seed, I suppose it's not out of the question to discuss their Super Bowl prospects. Despite their early Super Bowl success together, Brady and Bill Belichick have struggled recently to capture their fourth together. They haven't won a Super Bowl since 2005, despite making it and losing to the Giants twice since then. Peyton Manning's Broncos are still hanging around as well, as the Broncos were the team that ousted the Pats last year. I doubt that they are personally feeling the pressure to win another one, but the fan base is certainly getting anxious with all these close, but no cigar calls.
Team They Would Hate To See - Baltimore
Team They Would Love To See - Indianapolis
Denver Broncos
12-4, #2 seed, AFC West Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 31-24 vs Indianapolis, lost 26-20 at Seattle, won 41-20 vs Arizona, lost 43-21 at New England, lost 37-28 at Cincinnati
Three Reasons To Be Excited
C.J. Anderson - For the second year in a row, this Bronco team has taken a relative nobody and made him into a star. This team revitalized Knowshon Moreno's bust of a young career last year, and have now turned second year pro Anderson into a workhorse back. Anderson, buried on the depth chart behind the likes of Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman early in the year, got his big break in mid-November and has run with the job ever since. He has 849 yards and eight TDs, despite getting double digit carries in only seven games. With the Broncos shifting to a more run heavy approach, the young Anderson will be counted on to carry the load in the playoffs.
Defensive Makeover - The Broncos' offseason moves were fueled by the blowout loss they suffered in the Super Bowl to the Seahawks. Step one was to get tougher and better on defense. They hit the jackpot by bringing in Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, and TJ Ward. Oh, and Von Miller was already waiting on the roster as well. This unit now ranks third in total defense compared to finishing 19th last season. They have the best defense in the AFC and will need it with Pittsburgh and Indy's aerial attacks or Cincy and Baltimore's ground attacks coming to Denver next weekend.
Revenge - The Broncos, maybe more than any other team in the playoffs, will be extremely disappointed if they don't win, not just make, the Super Bowl. As I mentioned earlier, everything in the offseason was geared towards going back to the big game and winning it all. This crusade sort of reminds me of the Spurs last year after they had lost the year prior in heartbreaking fashion to the Heat. The Spurs didn't care about regular season, seeding, or any of that stuff. They just wanted to win the title they believed was theirs. Denver has that kind of feel this season. Even though they are the number one seed in the NFC, I have a feeling that a lot of Bronco players would love to see the Seahawks as their opponent in the Super Bowl.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
The Curious Case Of Peyton Manning - This year started off like any other for Manning. Throw for 300 yards here, get another 400 over there. It was a shock if he didn't throw for three or more TDs each week. Then came the infamous, and still puzzling, Rams game where Peyton threw it 54 times, but only had one TD to go with two interceptions in a 22-7 Bronco loss. He performed well against Miami the following game, but has since seen the offense focus on the run as well as seen his performance drop. Since the Miami game in Week 12, Manning has thrown for over 300 yards just once, and has registered a five to six TD to interception ratio. Optimists will say that the running game is helping out the offense as a whole and Peyton is fine. I'm not so sure. If need be, can he flip the switch to turn into a precision passing machine once again? Only time will tell.
Back To Foxborough - These past couple seasons, Foxborough has been a nightmare place for the Broncos to play. Last year, the Pats came back from 24-0 down at halftime to stun the Broncos in overtime. This year, there was no comeback to be had by either side as the Pats put the pedal to the medal, particularly in the second quarter, to crush the Broncos by 22. If the Pats and Broncos both survive the divisional round, then the Broncos will have to go back to the East Coast and try to win at a place that has been so unforgiving to them.
The AFC - Like New England, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with Denver. The AFC field should at least present some matchup issues. The Bengals just beat the Broncos a couple of weeks ago. The Colts made it close near the end in Denver the first game of the year, Baltimore has the personnel to stop Denver's rushing attack, and Pittsburgh has arguably the best passing attack Denver has faced. Throw in New England, who already beat Denver this year, and you have a challenging field to navigate.
Team They Would Hate To See - New England
Team They Would Love To See - Indianapolis
Pittsburgh Steelers
11-5, #3 seed, AFC North Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 26-6 at Baltimore, won 37-19 at Carolina, won 51-34 vs Indianapolis, won 43-23 vs Baltimore, won 42-21 at Cincinnati, won 27-17 vs Cincinnati
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Antonio Brown - I have no idea why there isn't more conversation about him being MVP. He basically does it all as he's a great route runner, is phenomenal after the catch, returns punts, runs sweeps, and has even thrown for a TD this year. Big Ben has, and will, look his way early and often no matter who they are playing. Revis is the best AFC corner, so I am interested to see those two go at it if the cookie crumbles that way. In the Steelers' six games against current playoff teams, Brown had at least 90 yards in each of them, topped out at 144 against Baltimore, and scored six TDs.
Coming In Hot - To get their lofty seed, the Steelers needed to get hot down the stretch. The division was still up for grabs as the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers were all in it. The Steelers used a home and home with Cincinnati, as well as a trip to Atlanta and a game at home against the Chiefs to earn the AFC North title. They won all four by at least one TD. Now they get their division rival with whom they split the season series. If they clear that hurdle, then it's off to Denver to face Peyton and the Broncos.
Receivers Not Named Brown - Yes, they do exist on this roster. Markus Wheaton is talented, but needs to be more consistent. Heath Miller isn't all that talented, but is very consistent. Martavis Bryant is the big play maker as he is averaging 21.1 yards per catch and is second on the team in TDs with eight. With Le'Veon Bell out for this game, I expect the Steelers to try and air it out more than normal. Brown is talented, but he can't do it all. One, if not all of these guys, will need to step up to make up for the loss of Bell.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
No Le'Veon Bell - This is a huge loss. Bell is not only a great downhill runner, but he is extremely talented catching passes out of the backfield. While he struggled in the two games with the Ravens this season, he is still more of a threat than any replacement the Steelers will put in. Bell is also an above average blocker for Big Ben in the passing game and his presence will be missed on passing downs. I expect the Ravens to spread their defense and defend the pass and leave the run stopping to the front six or seven guys. Even with a lack of production in the Baltimore games this year, it will be a significant piece missing in the way this offense works.
Not Your Father's Steelers' Defense - While it's true that they have improved the past four games, they are still nowhere near as frightening as they once were. They gave up 26 points and 323 yards in their first meeting, and followed that up by giving up 23 points and 332 yards in their second meeting. Arguably their worst performance of the season came in Week 13 when they lost 35-32 at home to New Orleans. They gave up 393 yards, allowed a 100 yard rusher, and recorded zero turnovers. That kind of performance won't cut it against the Peyton Mannings, Tom Bradys, and even Joe Flaccos of the world.
Inconsistent - The Steelers have been a hard team to figure out all year. They almost blew a 24 point lead against the Browns the first game of the season. They crushed Carolina on Sunday Night Football, only to come back home and lose to the Bucs at the buzzer. They get blown out in Cleveland, only to see Big Ben throw for 14 TDs the next three weeks. Then, they lost in the upset of the season to the lowly Jets, and almost lost a week and a day later in Tennessee on Monday Night. After their bye was the New Orleans game, before ripping off four straight Ws. All it takes is four good games to win you the Super Bowl, but it just takes one bad stinker to send you home for the season.
Team They Would Hate To See - New England
Team They Would Love To See - Cincinnati
Indianapolis Colts
11-5, #4 seed, AFC South Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 31-24 at Denver, won 20-13 vs Baltimore, won 27-0 vs Cincinnati, lost 51-34 at Pittsburgh, lost 42-20 vs New England, lost 42-7 at Dallas
Three Reasons To Be Excited
First Round Opponent - The Colts could not have asked for a better opponent in the first round. Not only is this the same team that the Colts shutout in Week 7, but the latest news is that star wide receiver AJ Green is unlikely to play. Green didn't play in their regular season matchup and the Bengals struggled to do anything offensively. They mustered a measly 135 total yards and were completely embarrassed. Back at Lucas Oil with the Colts healthy and the Bengals Green-less, I think the result will end up the same, though probably not a shutout.
Andrew Luck - Ever since he was drafted, he was seen as the savior of this franchise since Manning departed for Denver. He has delivered...sort of. He has gotten them to the playoffs each year he has been there, and even delivered one of the most ridiculous comebacks in NFL history with their come from behind 45-44 win over the Chiefs. The problem is that in his two other playoff games, he has two TDs, five interceptions, and lost both of those games. The good news is he's young, and quarterbacks his age are lucky if they have even gotten their teams to the playoffs by now. One of these years he will perform well in multiple playoff games. Colt fans are hoping this is the year.
Pass Defense - The Colts' pass defense has very quietly become an excellent unit in the NFL. Led by cornerback Vontae Davis, the Colts rank 12th in passing yards against to go along with 12 interceptions. They won't completely terminate a passing game like Seattle, but they will slow it down enough to frustrate an opponent. This unit is a big reason why Cincy had such a hard time doing anything in their first matchup without Green. There are plenty of talented pass catchers on the AFC side of the bracket, so this unit could be the difference between a quick or long run in the playoffs.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Can't Run The Ball - They seem to just give up on it during a game if it's not working. The Colts are first in the league in pass attempts, but are only middle of the pack in rushing attempts. Trent Richardson is not at all what they thought they were getting when they traded for him a year ago, and Ahmad Bradshaw's injury left only Daniel "Boom" Herron to pick up the slack. He's shown flashes, but has also been shut down, particularly the last four games of the season. This inability to run puts more of the work on Luck's shoulders, which inevitably leads to more interceptions and turnovers that kill drives. I think they can get away with it against Cincy, but they will need to find some kind of balance in the next round.
Run Defense - While the back end has held its own this year, the front seven certainly has not. In fact, in the last game of the season, they gave up 94 yards to Shonn Greene. That's not good. Exposing the Colt run defense is one way that the Bengals can pull the upset. Giovanni Bernard was Cincy's lead back in the first matchup as they only attempted 12 runs all game. Bernard has now been relegated to a backup role as Jeremy Hill has emerged as their starter. Hill is hot as of late and could very well gash this unit if Indy doesn't commit guys to stop the run.
Letdown - While their prospects for a win this weekend look good, their long term future looks much more grim. The Colts have fallen pretty flat in most of their key matchups this year. They are 2-4 against current playoff teams and three of them, Pittsburgh, New England, and Dallas, blew them out. If the Colts are quickly out once again, Luck will start to carry around the reputation of someone that can get to the playoffs, but are never a real threat.
Team They Would Hate To See - New England
Team They Would Love To See - Baltimore
Cincinnati Bengals
10-5-1, #5 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 23-16 at Baltimore, lost 43-17 at New England, tied 37-37 vs Carolina, lost 27-0 at Indianapolis, won 27-24 vs Baltimore, lost 42-21 vs Pittsburgh, lost 27-17 at Pittsburgh
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Jeremy Hill - The rookie out of LSU, Hill has emerged as the number one guy in the backfield for the Bengals and one of the better running backs in the entire league. He was the change of pace back early in the season to Giovanni Bernard, but now Hill is the one getting 20+ carries a game. He finished the year strong, rushing for at least 100 yards in each of the final three games. With AJ Green likely out, Hill will need to perform more like a veteran than a rookie if the Bengals are to avenge their shutout loss to the Colts.
Mohamed Sanu Is Ready - Perhaps when Green missed time in the regular season, it was a blessing in disguise. Green missed basically the entire month of October, leaving the WR1 position for the Bengals up for grabs. Sanu stepped up to the plate and went for 299 yards and a TD in the three games that AJ missed. He had little success once Green returned to the lineup, but will be counted on to be the go-to guy once again. He proved that he can perform in the starting wide receiver role and will look to carry this limited Bengal aerial attack.
The Game Is Being Played During The Day - With the AJ Green news and the way their first meeting went, the Bengals really don't have a lot to be excited about. If they're looking for little victories, however, it is that they don't have to play in prime time. Save for their Week 16 win over the Broncos, Andy Dalton and the Bengals traditionally play poorly at night. No one knows why, but they just do. This one will be taking place at noon central time so at least the Bengals don't have to deal with that mental block.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Andy Dalton - One of the safest bets in sports is to bet that Dalton will lose this first playoff game, as well as perform poorly in it. The Bengals have reached the postseason the last three years and were one and done each time. In those three games, Dalton has one TD, six interceptions, and a lost fumble. This includes a 31-10 beat down by the Texans in the 2011 season, who were led by none other than TJ Yates. Even if the Bengals win this game, it will be on the back of Hill, not on the arm of Dalton.
Defense - Their defense as a whole, just isn't good. They're 20th in rushing yards allowed per game and 20th in passing yards allowed per game. The Colts rolled up 506 yards of offense in their meeting in October. It would have been worse had the Colts not turned it over twice. Even though they got a late season win against the Broncos, they still gave up 385 yards that game and followed it up by giving up 346 yards to Pittsburgh with the division title on the line. Luck will carve this defense up if they don't scheme some ways to confuse the Colts.
History - Three straight one and done playoff years to go along with years of ineptitude from this franchise. The loss to the Colts earlier in the year is a mental hurdle to get over, even if the players won't explicitly admit it. They will have to battle the history of losing in the playoffs that surrounds this team each game they get a chance to play this postseason.
Team They Would Hate To See - Pittsburgh
Team They Would Love To See - Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
10-6, #6 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 23-16 vs Cincinnati, won 26-6 vs Pittsburgh, won 38-10 vs Carolina, lost 20-13 at Indianapolis, lost 27-24 at Cincinnati, lost 43-23 at Pittsburgh
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Run Defense - This isn't a surprise. For as long as this franchise has existed, they have prided themselves on playing stout defense, particularly against the run. Nose tackle and run stopping extraordinaire Haloti Ngata will return from suspension for the playoffs. They are fourth in rushing yards against and have shut down the likes of Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram. Bell being out is just another boost for an already intimidating unit. I'd be surprised if the Steelers rush for more than 50 yards this game.
The Smiths - Steve Smith came over to Baltimore in the offseason, determined to prove to everyone, Carolina in particular, that he still had plenty left in the tank. He has responded by leading the team in receptions and yards. Torrey Smith, meanwhile, took a while to get going this year but has really come on late. He has yet to clear 100 yards in a game, but is a TD producing machine, as he leads the team with 11, including five in the last five games of the season. They are a very underrated wide receiver duo and should give the Steeler secondary plenty of problems.
Joe Flacco - When Flacco gets hot, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Ravens' 2012 Super Bowl run was almost all because Flacco was unstoppable. He threw for over 1,100 yards and 11 TDs in four games with zero interceptions. He's had two red hot games this year, against Carolina and in Tampa Bay. He went for 327 yards and three TDs in the Carolina win, and threw for 306 yards five TDs in the Tampa game. Zero interceptions in both.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Joe Flacco - With the good Flacco, however, there is also bad Flacco. Among the good and average games that he puts up, he'll also put up some head scratchers. Only two weeks after his masterpiece in Tampa, Flacco went into Cincy and threw for 195 yards, zero TDs, two interceptions, and a QB rating of 43.1. Somehow, they only lost by three. This is the same guy, who in 2012, posted a 0.3 QBR which rates QBs on a scale from 0-100. 0.3! He can single-handedly carry a team to a Super Bowl, as well as single-handedly bury a team any given game.
Secondary - The Ravens' pass defense has been roasted this year, particularly by Big Ben. The Ravens have multiple starters on injured reserve and their replacements haven't fared well. The healthy Raven secondary held Big Ben to 217 yards, zero TDs, and an interception in Week 2. A more banged up version gave up 340 yards, six TDs, and zero interceptions in Pittsburgh. They played better down the stretch, albeit against Jacksonville, Houston, and Cleveland. They'll face much stiffer tests in the postseason.
Depth - I already mentioned how banged up the secondary is. They're running out of people to replace them. Offensively is where the concern is. With Ray Rice being suspended, the Ravens have been forced to figure out their backfield as they go. Justin Forsett has been a god send, but there's not too much after that. The underwhelming Bernard Pierce would be first in line, followed by season long practice squad member Fitzgerald Toussaint. If one of the Smiths were to go down, wide receiver would be left open for Kamar Aiken, Jacoby Jones, and Marlon Brown. No thanks.
Team They Would Hate To See - Indianapolis
Team They Would Love To See - New England
Matty O
NFC Playoff Preview
Seattle Seahawks
12-4, #1 seed, NFC West Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 36-16 vs Green Bay, won 26-20 vs Denver, lost 30-23 vs Dallas, won 13-9 at Carolina, won 19-3 vs Arizona, won 35-6 at Arizona
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - This is what they built their Super Bowl run on last year and they look to be trying to do the same this year. Their defense is healthy and ended the regular season as the number one overall defense, allowing the fewest passing yards per game, the third fewest rushing yards per game, and the least points per game. The Legion of Boom appears to be back in full force as they are shutting offenses down, giving their good, but still not great, offense more possessions.
Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot - Sometimes in the playoffs you don't have to be the best team, you just have to be the hottest team. Well, Seattle might be both. After going 3-3 in their first six games with losses to San Diego, Dallas at home, and most surprisingly, in St. Louis, people already started writing them off. They had a nice run last year, but they would come back to reality in 2014. Fast forward a few months and they are now a popular pick to win the Super Bowl with only a couple of teams deemed worthy of stopping them. They won their last six games and gave up no more than 14 points in any of those games. This included redeeming their St. Louis loss, two games each against the Cardinals and 49ers, and a drubbing of the high flying Eagles.
Russell Wilson - This guy just continues to make plays. The Seahawks certainly want to ground and pound with Marshawn Lynch a fair amount, but Wilson is counted on to make plays in crucial spots. He certainly doesn't have the gaudy numbers that an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees will put up, but he makes plays when his team desperately needs one. More often than not, his scrambling ability gets defenses spread out and chasing after him, only to watch him deliver a strike to a wide receiver who lost his man. Not only that, but rarely does Wilson make the significant mistake that costs his team a game.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Russell Wilson - While the scrambling is nice and all, he is still an average pure pocket thrower. He is extremely dangerous when he scrambles, but if you contain him, then he can be beat. The Cowboy game is the perfect example of how to slow down his playmaking ability. The defensive front seven made it a point to keep him in the pocket and limit the time he had to throw. This resulted in only two rushes for 12 yards, a 50% completion percentage, no TDs, and a 47.6 passer rating. If, for whatever reason, the Seahawks get into a shootout because of special teams or defensive errors, Wilson is not the guy that will likely match another QB score for score.
The NFC - Green Bay, Carolina, and Dallas all have more than a puncher's chance of knocking this team off. Heck, Dallas already did it up in Seattle. Green Bay got crushed the opening game of the season, but this team wasn't really clicking until after the Detroit game in Week 3 and Rodgers told Packer fans to relax. The Pack refused to throw Richard Sherman's way, though I'm sure the game plan will be much different if they meet again. The Panthers almost beat Seattle in Week 8 in a 13-9 slug fest. Carolina's defense has gotten even better since that game, and it appears as though they've found a run game. While Seattle did win two out of those three games, I doubt they want to see any of those three teams again.
Teams Are Ready - There is a reason why it is hard to repeat. Teams give you their best shot game in and game out. Defenses and offenses can be broken down in film study and tendencies can, and do, emerge. If the playoffs go chalk and all the high seeds win their games, Seattle will have to beat the Panthers, Packers, and Patriots to repeat as champs. Not the easiest of all roads to another title.
Team They Would Hate To See - Dallas
Team They Would Love To See - Arizona
Green Bay Packers
12-4, #2 seed, NFC North Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 36-16 at Seattle, lost 19-7 at Detroit, won 38-17 vs Carolina, won 26-21 vs New England, won 30-20 vs Detroit
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Aaron Rodgers - Obviously! Rodgers has been unbelievable this year as he has put up a line of 4,381 yards, 38 TDs, and only five interceptions. He has been lights out at home, and will only have to leave Lambeau if the Seahawks are still alive in the NFC Championship Game. He has played at an MVP level this year and I see no reason why that won't carry over into the playoffs.
Eddie Lacy - Lost in the aerial bonanza that takes place every time Green Bay plays is how well Lacy has done this year. He's battled some aches and pains, but has gone over 1,000 yards for the second time in two years to go along with nine rushing TDs, and a 4.6 yards per carry average. He has also contributed in the passing game as he has 42 receptions for 427 yards and four TDs. When teams focus on locking down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, Lacy is ready to be a critical piece in the passing game. Despite some stout run defenses in the NFC (Detroit, Arizona, Seattle), Lacy will need to play a crucial part in the success of this team.
Home Field Advantage - Home field is critical for any team, but particularly for the Pack. It's not really so much about how well they play at home, which they do, but how relatively awful they are on the road. They lost in Seattle, were held to seven points in a loss in Detroit, got to beat down a terrible Bears team in Chicago, were a fake spike away from losing in Miami, got demolished 44-23 in the Superdome, won by a mere field goal in Minnesota, lost to a Kyle Orton-led Bufflo team, then only managed 20 points in a win over the Bucs. If they do wind up having to travel to the Northwest, they better figure out how to fix their road woes.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Defense - Similar to how Seattle's average offense is protected by their elite defense, Green Bay's average defense is protected by their elite offense. This defense can afford to give up yards and points because they know Rodgers and co. will likely post a score in the 30s or 40s. That is a risky game to play. When the offense can't produce at that clip, however, it will likely be the end of the Pack in the playoffs. They played with fire against the Falcons and won, but did the same against the Saints and lost. If the offense stalls, can this defense steal a game or two in the playoffs? I have my doubts.
Aaron Rodgers' Calf - Packers fans held their breath last week when Rodgers went down with a calf injury and had to be carted off the field. Not only did it seem like their shot at a NFC North crown was out the door, but any hopes of a deep playoff run left with that cart. Luckily for them, Rodgers came back and led the Pack to the win, earning them the number two seed and a crucial extra week of rest. Still, he wasn't as mobile in the second half, and it is quite possible he is not fully healed by January 11th, even with the extra rest. If Matt Flynn leads the Pack to a Super Bowl, I think the universe may explode.
Seattle - Let's be honest, if the defense does enough to get the job done and Rodgers stays healthy, the Pack are a virtual lock for the NFC Championship Game. The problem is, they would have to go to Seattle against an elite defense. I have a feeling this would turn out very similar to the Buffalo game that Green Bay played in Week 15. Rodgers would have a hard time cracking an elite defense in a hostile environment, and Seattle's offense would do just enough to earn them the win. The Pack have to hope that someone knocks them off before Championship weekend.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
12-4, #3 seed, NFC East Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 30-23 at Seattle, lost 28-17 vs Arizona, won 42-7 vs Indianapolis
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Offensive Line - This unit is the best offensive line in the game. They have helped paved the way for DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo's excellent years. They were a big reason why Dallas was able to go into Seattle and win that game. They won up front at the line of scrimmage, limiting the amount of pressure Seattle could get and limiting the amount of times Dallas had to attack the Legion of Boom secondary. This unit's hardest test will be this weekend against the Lions, particularly if Nick Fairley can play. This line is the reason the Cowboys have gotten this far.
Rod Marinelli - Marinelli will see familiar faces in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Marinelli coached the Lions from 2006-08, then faced them twice a year as the defensive coordinator of the Bears from 2010-12. Marinelli faced the Pack twice a year during both of those stints. Obviously the Lions, Packers, and Cowboys are all different since then, but familiarity always helps in any matchup. Marinelli has resurrected this defense from the disaster that was last year and has them playing above their talent levels. Individually they're average at best, but they play above average as a unit. In facing Megatron this weekend, and possibly Rodgers, Nelson, Lacy, and Cobb next weekend, this unit will need to hold up.
Tony Romo - Where did this Tony Romo come from? After a few years of making the wrong mistake at the wrong time, Romo has begun to start making the right plays at any time. He has his highest QB rating of his career, the second most TD passes, and tied for the least amount of interceptions during a 15+ game season. He seems to be fully over the back injury that plagued him at the start of the year, and is playing at an elite level. There's even talk he should get consideration for MVP of the league. He could care less about that though as he is determined to win Dallas a Super Bowl after years of excelling in the regular season, then collapsing down the stretch.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Strength Of Schedule - They only played three games against current playoff teams out of 16 games. Not the best way to prepare, although their last one came in Week 16 in a rout of the Colts. Looking back on their schedule and reflecting on how teams actually turned out, their record is neither impressive or surprising. The only real shockers were a win in Seattle, an overtime loss to the Colt McCoy-led Redskins on Monday Night, and a 33-10 pasting at the hands of the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Granted, they took care of the teams they were supposed to, but everyone in the playoffs is great. I'm not sure their regular season schedule prepared them for the gauntlet of teams they will face in the coming week(s).
Defense - Marinelli might have them playing above expectations, but they still aren't that good. The only team they held to single digits all year were the Colts, and they made the game against the Bears, win in Philly, win in St. Louis, and both Giants games closer than they needed to be. I think this unit can at least contain Calvin Johnson this weekend and halt the Lions' offense, but I have no idea what they would come up with to even slow down Rodgers and the Packers. This unit plays hard and tackles well, but even that might not be enough if the Cowboys make a deep run in the playoffs.
There's No Great Matchup - Dallas doesn't really match up, at least on paper, with any of these teams. Green Bay can destroy their defense, Detroit's strength is in its defensive front seven to stop Murray and the run, Cam, Carolina, and the read option will likely give Dallas' defense headaches, Seattle's defense is back to being elite, and Arizona already beat Dallas albeit with Brandon Weeden as the starting QB. Dallas still only managed seven offensive points 92 team rushing yards in that loss to the Cardinals. I would say that Seattle might be Dallas' best chance simply because they beat them earlier in the year, but it will be a grind for Dallas no matter who they play.
Team They Would Hate To See - Panthers
Team They Would Love To See - Seattle
Carolina Panthers
7-8-1, #4 seed, NFC South Champs
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 24-7 vs Detroit, lost 37-19 vs Pittsburgh, lost 38-10 at Baltimore, tied 37-37 at Cincinnati, lost 38-17 at Green Bay, lost 13-9 vs Seattle
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Running Game - Jonathan Stewart finally seems to be healthy and running at a good clip. He exceeded 100 yards rushing in two of Carolina's last four games, and has worked to separate himself from the injured, but returning, DeAngelo Williams. Cam Newton is also back to his old running ways after being protected at the start of the season due to offseason ankle surgery. The read option is fully back and should keep any defense on their toes. This will, in turn, open up the play action for Cam to hit rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin on passes.
Defense Is Picking Up - Coming off a phenomenal defensive season last year, this season was much rockier. From Weeks 3-7, they gave up at least 37 points four times. Since their bye week, however, this defense has really picked it up. Week 13 shows that Minnesota posted 31 points on them, but 14 of those points were from blocked punts and the Panthers held Minnesota to only 210 total yards. The following week, they held Drew Brees and the Saints to 310 yards in the Superdome. Finally, with the division on the line, they held the Falcons to 288 total yards in the Georgia Dome and scored two defensive TDs. If they can come anywhere close to the level they were playing last year, it will be tough to score on the Panthers, no matter who they're facing.
Luck Of The Draw - Can this team have any more things fall into place for them? This is a team that had a run from Weeks 3-13, only won one game, and still won their division! Despite almost trying to give the division away, the Saints and Falcons were equally terrible, allowing a 7-8-1 team to make the playoffs and host a playoff game. Their luck doesn't stop there, however. Because of the way everything worked out in the NFC playoff picture, Carolina was able to avoid Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo, and will instead face...Ryan Lindley. Obviously anything can happen and the Cards' defense is no joke, but knowing that you won't have to face a QB that can hang huge numbers on you is a plus for this Carolina team.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Who Have You Beaten? - Well, no one really. They beat Detroit early in the year, but the rest of their wins have come against sub-.500 teams. Along the way, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Minnesota absolutely demolished them. While Dallas is a team that hasn't had many tests, Carolina is a team that has had many, and has failed many. Unlike in the regular season, there are no pushover teams in the playoffs. When push comes to shove, will Carolina be able to shove back against the best teams in the NFL?
Decide On A Lead Running Back - It sounds as if DeAngelo Williams is ready to play in this weekend's game. It will be interesting to see if they decide to integrate Williams back into the starting lineup with Stewart playing so well recently. I think when they keep rotating these backs over and over again, it gets them out of rhythm and leads to a downgrade in production for both of them. Even though Williams has given a lot to this franchise, I think they need to let him take a back seat to Stewart so that he can continue the hot streak he is on.
Lack Of Experience - This is a young team. The only taste of the playoffs that a lot of these guys have had was last year. They earned the second seed in the NFC and got a first round bye. They were unceremoniously whooped 23-10 in the divisional round against San Francisco. How does a young team react to major changes during the game? Perhaps Ryan Lindley has the game of his life and the Panthers find themselves having to play catch up. Will Cam keep his composure? It's sometimes easy for younger, inexperienced teams to lose focus once the bright lights come on.
Team They Would Hate To See - Green Bay
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Arizona Cardinals
11-5, #5 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 41-20 at Denver, won 28-17 at Dallas, won 14-6 vs Detroit, lost 19-3 at Seattle, lost 35-6 vs Seattle
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - If this team goes anywhere, it will be because of this unit. They have really been put under the gun recently due to the Cardinals' inability to move the ball and have cracked because of it (35-6 loss vs Seattle in Week 16). Despite this, they are still one of the most talented units in the league and excel in stopping Carolina's strength which is running the football. The defense cannot afford to have a bad day against Carolina as they can hopefully get the win to get Drew Stanton back in time for the Divisional Round game.
Offensive Playcalling - Even when Carson Palmer was the quarterback, it's not like this offense was considered as high powered as the Broncos or Eagles. While they don't move the chains as frequently or effectively as those teams, they do call enough deep shots and risky plays to put enough points on the board. This aggressive playcalling hasn't stopped, even with Lindley under center. The Cardinals would be fine with getting almost no offense, hitting on three big plays, counting on their defense, and winning a game along the lines of 17-10. It won't be pretty offensively, but all the Cardinals need to be is opportunistic with their chances.
Wide Receivers - Look, it's hard to find anything to get too excited about offensively with this team, but receiver is certainly where the skill is. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best in the game, Michael Floyd leads the team in yards and TDs, and John Brown has delivered some long plays in his rookie season as he is second on the team with five TDs. If Lindley can just get the ball in the general area of these guys, there's a pretty good bet that they will make a play. The strength for Carolina is their front seven so it would be wise to attack the Panthers through the air.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Quarterback - This goes without saying. You can only ask the defense to do so much when your offense can't move the ball and leaves the defense in bad spots. Drew Stanton might come back if the Cards win this game, but that's a big if and a big might. It just puts so much pressure on your team knowing that your offense will be lucky to score 17 points. Given the situation at QB, a deep playoff run seems improbable with a Super Bowl appearance/win seemingly impossible.
Third Time's A Nightmare - More than likely, if the Cards are to somehow win the NFC, they will have to beat Seattle after losing to them twice. Both times the Arizona defense actually played really well, but in those two games, the Arizona offense managed nine points combined. Lindley's effort actually produced more points (six) then Stanton's (three). Either way, they were overwhelmed towards the end of each game by their divisional rival, and nothing has changed that would make me give Arizona a better chance than the previous two times.
Running - Out of 32 NFL teams, Arizona is ranked 31st in total rushing yards behind only the Oakland Raiders. The problem for Arizona is that they are kind of in a catch-22 situation because their QB play has been so woeful. Teams stack the box and dare you to throw the ball. So do you run at a wall of eight defenders or trust your third string QB to try and make a play? They're 24th in the league in rushing attempts so they're kind of trying to run, but it seems like a lost cause, particularly if they get down early. If they do decide to establish the run against stacked boxes, they need to stay the course for as long as the score allows them to.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Detroit Lions
11-5, #6 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 24-7 at Carolina, won 19-7 vs Green Bay, lost 14-6 at Arizona, lost 34-9 at New England, lost 30-20 at Green Bay
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Healthy - The Lions are probably the healthiest they've been all year. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson have all missed time this year, but all seem to be at or near 100%. Matthew Stafford and the Lions will need all hands on deck for this weekend's game and, if they win, a trip to Seattle next weekend. Stafford really struggles when he doesn't have all his players, particularly Johnson, so he should feel a lot more comfortable this Sunday in Dallas.
Suh Escaping Suspension - Ndamukong Suh's status was up in the air during the week as he was originally suspended for this game for stepping on the leg of Aaron Rodgers. Suh won his appeal, however, and will indeed be out there. With fellow defensive tackle Nick Fairley questionable due to injury, Suh's return is critical considering how successful the Cowboys' run game has been this year. The Lions rank first in rush yards allowed and the Cowboys are second in rush yards for. This game will be won and lost in the trenches, and Suh's presence should make a difference.
Megatron - Megatron, or Calvin Johnson, should feast in this game. The Cowboys, along with a lot of other teams, don't really have anyone that can match up with him one on one. That means safety help and openings for other capable players like Golden Tate or Bush out of the backfield. Dallas has only faced a handful of elite wide receivers, but Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr., Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson have all had great lines against this Cowboy defense. I expect the Lions to target Johnson early and often to try and move the ball down the field.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has had a down year by his standards as he threw for the least amount of yards in a season where he played 16 games, threw only 22 TDs, to go along with 12 interceptions and six fumbles. He, like Tony Romo, has the reputation of choking down the stretch and making that crucial mistake that costs his team a game. He almost cost the Lions a playoff spot in Week 16 as he threw two picks deep in Bears territory to allow Jimmy Clausen to almost pull off the upset. Unlike how the Cowboys are protecting Romo from himself, the Lions don't seem to be doing that with Stafford. That might come back to bite them as early as this Sunday.
Running - Detroit is right below Arizona in rushing attempts and right down there with the Cardinals in rushing yards at 28th in the league. Joique Bell has been running better as of late, but they are still not a team that will ground and pound you into submission like the Cowboys and Seahawks do. Putting the ball in Stafford's hands and trusting him not to make a mistake is a gamble. The Cowboys swarm to the ball well, and should be able to stop the run relatively well as Detroit's line is decent, but not great. I think they would have more success in the short passing game with Bush, rather than trying to slam it in the trenches with Bell and/or Bush.
No Home, Big Problem - Must be a NFC North thing. Similar to the Packers, the Lions are a shell of themselves when they go on the road. They lost in Carolina, beat the Jets by a TD in New York, won 17-3 over Minnesota, beat Atlanta by one, lost in the desert, got killed by the Patriots, almost lost to Jimmy Clausen in Chicago, then lost the NFC North title in Green Bay. As the sixth seed, they'll have to win in Dallas, in Seattle, and potentially, try once again to win in Green Bay. Whether it's changing routine before games or changing the way they call games, the Lions need to figure it out in the coming weeks.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Carolina
Matty O
12-4, #1 seed, NFC West Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 36-16 vs Green Bay, won 26-20 vs Denver, lost 30-23 vs Dallas, won 13-9 at Carolina, won 19-3 vs Arizona, won 35-6 at Arizona
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - This is what they built their Super Bowl run on last year and they look to be trying to do the same this year. Their defense is healthy and ended the regular season as the number one overall defense, allowing the fewest passing yards per game, the third fewest rushing yards per game, and the least points per game. The Legion of Boom appears to be back in full force as they are shutting offenses down, giving their good, but still not great, offense more possessions.
Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot - Sometimes in the playoffs you don't have to be the best team, you just have to be the hottest team. Well, Seattle might be both. After going 3-3 in their first six games with losses to San Diego, Dallas at home, and most surprisingly, in St. Louis, people already started writing them off. They had a nice run last year, but they would come back to reality in 2014. Fast forward a few months and they are now a popular pick to win the Super Bowl with only a couple of teams deemed worthy of stopping them. They won their last six games and gave up no more than 14 points in any of those games. This included redeeming their St. Louis loss, two games each against the Cardinals and 49ers, and a drubbing of the high flying Eagles.
Russell Wilson - This guy just continues to make plays. The Seahawks certainly want to ground and pound with Marshawn Lynch a fair amount, but Wilson is counted on to make plays in crucial spots. He certainly doesn't have the gaudy numbers that an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees will put up, but he makes plays when his team desperately needs one. More often than not, his scrambling ability gets defenses spread out and chasing after him, only to watch him deliver a strike to a wide receiver who lost his man. Not only that, but rarely does Wilson make the significant mistake that costs his team a game.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Russell Wilson - While the scrambling is nice and all, he is still an average pure pocket thrower. He is extremely dangerous when he scrambles, but if you contain him, then he can be beat. The Cowboy game is the perfect example of how to slow down his playmaking ability. The defensive front seven made it a point to keep him in the pocket and limit the time he had to throw. This resulted in only two rushes for 12 yards, a 50% completion percentage, no TDs, and a 47.6 passer rating. If, for whatever reason, the Seahawks get into a shootout because of special teams or defensive errors, Wilson is not the guy that will likely match another QB score for score.
The NFC - Green Bay, Carolina, and Dallas all have more than a puncher's chance of knocking this team off. Heck, Dallas already did it up in Seattle. Green Bay got crushed the opening game of the season, but this team wasn't really clicking until after the Detroit game in Week 3 and Rodgers told Packer fans to relax. The Pack refused to throw Richard Sherman's way, though I'm sure the game plan will be much different if they meet again. The Panthers almost beat Seattle in Week 8 in a 13-9 slug fest. Carolina's defense has gotten even better since that game, and it appears as though they've found a run game. While Seattle did win two out of those three games, I doubt they want to see any of those three teams again.
Teams Are Ready - There is a reason why it is hard to repeat. Teams give you their best shot game in and game out. Defenses and offenses can be broken down in film study and tendencies can, and do, emerge. If the playoffs go chalk and all the high seeds win their games, Seattle will have to beat the Panthers, Packers, and Patriots to repeat as champs. Not the easiest of all roads to another title.
Team They Would Hate To See - Dallas
Team They Would Love To See - Arizona
Green Bay Packers
12-4, #2 seed, NFC North Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 36-16 at Seattle, lost 19-7 at Detroit, won 38-17 vs Carolina, won 26-21 vs New England, won 30-20 vs Detroit
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Aaron Rodgers - Obviously! Rodgers has been unbelievable this year as he has put up a line of 4,381 yards, 38 TDs, and only five interceptions. He has been lights out at home, and will only have to leave Lambeau if the Seahawks are still alive in the NFC Championship Game. He has played at an MVP level this year and I see no reason why that won't carry over into the playoffs.
Eddie Lacy - Lost in the aerial bonanza that takes place every time Green Bay plays is how well Lacy has done this year. He's battled some aches and pains, but has gone over 1,000 yards for the second time in two years to go along with nine rushing TDs, and a 4.6 yards per carry average. He has also contributed in the passing game as he has 42 receptions for 427 yards and four TDs. When teams focus on locking down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, Lacy is ready to be a critical piece in the passing game. Despite some stout run defenses in the NFC (Detroit, Arizona, Seattle), Lacy will need to play a crucial part in the success of this team.
Home Field Advantage - Home field is critical for any team, but particularly for the Pack. It's not really so much about how well they play at home, which they do, but how relatively awful they are on the road. They lost in Seattle, were held to seven points in a loss in Detroit, got to beat down a terrible Bears team in Chicago, were a fake spike away from losing in Miami, got demolished 44-23 in the Superdome, won by a mere field goal in Minnesota, lost to a Kyle Orton-led Bufflo team, then only managed 20 points in a win over the Bucs. If they do wind up having to travel to the Northwest, they better figure out how to fix their road woes.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Defense - Similar to how Seattle's average offense is protected by their elite defense, Green Bay's average defense is protected by their elite offense. This defense can afford to give up yards and points because they know Rodgers and co. will likely post a score in the 30s or 40s. That is a risky game to play. When the offense can't produce at that clip, however, it will likely be the end of the Pack in the playoffs. They played with fire against the Falcons and won, but did the same against the Saints and lost. If the offense stalls, can this defense steal a game or two in the playoffs? I have my doubts.
Aaron Rodgers' Calf - Packers fans held their breath last week when Rodgers went down with a calf injury and had to be carted off the field. Not only did it seem like their shot at a NFC North crown was out the door, but any hopes of a deep playoff run left with that cart. Luckily for them, Rodgers came back and led the Pack to the win, earning them the number two seed and a crucial extra week of rest. Still, he wasn't as mobile in the second half, and it is quite possible he is not fully healed by January 11th, even with the extra rest. If Matt Flynn leads the Pack to a Super Bowl, I think the universe may explode.
Seattle - Let's be honest, if the defense does enough to get the job done and Rodgers stays healthy, the Pack are a virtual lock for the NFC Championship Game. The problem is, they would have to go to Seattle against an elite defense. I have a feeling this would turn out very similar to the Buffalo game that Green Bay played in Week 15. Rodgers would have a hard time cracking an elite defense in a hostile environment, and Seattle's offense would do just enough to earn them the win. The Pack have to hope that someone knocks them off before Championship weekend.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
12-4, #3 seed, NFC East Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 30-23 at Seattle, lost 28-17 vs Arizona, won 42-7 vs Indianapolis
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Offensive Line - This unit is the best offensive line in the game. They have helped paved the way for DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo's excellent years. They were a big reason why Dallas was able to go into Seattle and win that game. They won up front at the line of scrimmage, limiting the amount of pressure Seattle could get and limiting the amount of times Dallas had to attack the Legion of Boom secondary. This unit's hardest test will be this weekend against the Lions, particularly if Nick Fairley can play. This line is the reason the Cowboys have gotten this far.
Rod Marinelli - Marinelli will see familiar faces in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Marinelli coached the Lions from 2006-08, then faced them twice a year as the defensive coordinator of the Bears from 2010-12. Marinelli faced the Pack twice a year during both of those stints. Obviously the Lions, Packers, and Cowboys are all different since then, but familiarity always helps in any matchup. Marinelli has resurrected this defense from the disaster that was last year and has them playing above their talent levels. Individually they're average at best, but they play above average as a unit. In facing Megatron this weekend, and possibly Rodgers, Nelson, Lacy, and Cobb next weekend, this unit will need to hold up.
Tony Romo - Where did this Tony Romo come from? After a few years of making the wrong mistake at the wrong time, Romo has begun to start making the right plays at any time. He has his highest QB rating of his career, the second most TD passes, and tied for the least amount of interceptions during a 15+ game season. He seems to be fully over the back injury that plagued him at the start of the year, and is playing at an elite level. There's even talk he should get consideration for MVP of the league. He could care less about that though as he is determined to win Dallas a Super Bowl after years of excelling in the regular season, then collapsing down the stretch.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Strength Of Schedule - They only played three games against current playoff teams out of 16 games. Not the best way to prepare, although their last one came in Week 16 in a rout of the Colts. Looking back on their schedule and reflecting on how teams actually turned out, their record is neither impressive or surprising. The only real shockers were a win in Seattle, an overtime loss to the Colt McCoy-led Redskins on Monday Night, and a 33-10 pasting at the hands of the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Granted, they took care of the teams they were supposed to, but everyone in the playoffs is great. I'm not sure their regular season schedule prepared them for the gauntlet of teams they will face in the coming week(s).
Defense - Marinelli might have them playing above expectations, but they still aren't that good. The only team they held to single digits all year were the Colts, and they made the game against the Bears, win in Philly, win in St. Louis, and both Giants games closer than they needed to be. I think this unit can at least contain Calvin Johnson this weekend and halt the Lions' offense, but I have no idea what they would come up with to even slow down Rodgers and the Packers. This unit plays hard and tackles well, but even that might not be enough if the Cowboys make a deep run in the playoffs.
There's No Great Matchup - Dallas doesn't really match up, at least on paper, with any of these teams. Green Bay can destroy their defense, Detroit's strength is in its defensive front seven to stop Murray and the run, Cam, Carolina, and the read option will likely give Dallas' defense headaches, Seattle's defense is back to being elite, and Arizona already beat Dallas albeit with Brandon Weeden as the starting QB. Dallas still only managed seven offensive points 92 team rushing yards in that loss to the Cardinals. I would say that Seattle might be Dallas' best chance simply because they beat them earlier in the year, but it will be a grind for Dallas no matter who they play.
Team They Would Hate To See - Panthers
Team They Would Love To See - Seattle
Carolina Panthers
7-8-1, #4 seed, NFC South Champs
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Won 24-7 vs Detroit, lost 37-19 vs Pittsburgh, lost 38-10 at Baltimore, tied 37-37 at Cincinnati, lost 38-17 at Green Bay, lost 13-9 vs Seattle
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Running Game - Jonathan Stewart finally seems to be healthy and running at a good clip. He exceeded 100 yards rushing in two of Carolina's last four games, and has worked to separate himself from the injured, but returning, DeAngelo Williams. Cam Newton is also back to his old running ways after being protected at the start of the season due to offseason ankle surgery. The read option is fully back and should keep any defense on their toes. This will, in turn, open up the play action for Cam to hit rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin on passes.
Defense Is Picking Up - Coming off a phenomenal defensive season last year, this season was much rockier. From Weeks 3-7, they gave up at least 37 points four times. Since their bye week, however, this defense has really picked it up. Week 13 shows that Minnesota posted 31 points on them, but 14 of those points were from blocked punts and the Panthers held Minnesota to only 210 total yards. The following week, they held Drew Brees and the Saints to 310 yards in the Superdome. Finally, with the division on the line, they held the Falcons to 288 total yards in the Georgia Dome and scored two defensive TDs. If they can come anywhere close to the level they were playing last year, it will be tough to score on the Panthers, no matter who they're facing.
Luck Of The Draw - Can this team have any more things fall into place for them? This is a team that had a run from Weeks 3-13, only won one game, and still won their division! Despite almost trying to give the division away, the Saints and Falcons were equally terrible, allowing a 7-8-1 team to make the playoffs and host a playoff game. Their luck doesn't stop there, however. Because of the way everything worked out in the NFC playoff picture, Carolina was able to avoid Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo, and will instead face...Ryan Lindley. Obviously anything can happen and the Cards' defense is no joke, but knowing that you won't have to face a QB that can hang huge numbers on you is a plus for this Carolina team.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Who Have You Beaten? - Well, no one really. They beat Detroit early in the year, but the rest of their wins have come against sub-.500 teams. Along the way, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Minnesota absolutely demolished them. While Dallas is a team that hasn't had many tests, Carolina is a team that has had many, and has failed many. Unlike in the regular season, there are no pushover teams in the playoffs. When push comes to shove, will Carolina be able to shove back against the best teams in the NFL?
Decide On A Lead Running Back - It sounds as if DeAngelo Williams is ready to play in this weekend's game. It will be interesting to see if they decide to integrate Williams back into the starting lineup with Stewart playing so well recently. I think when they keep rotating these backs over and over again, it gets them out of rhythm and leads to a downgrade in production for both of them. Even though Williams has given a lot to this franchise, I think they need to let him take a back seat to Stewart so that he can continue the hot streak he is on.
Lack Of Experience - This is a young team. The only taste of the playoffs that a lot of these guys have had was last year. They earned the second seed in the NFC and got a first round bye. They were unceremoniously whooped 23-10 in the divisional round against San Francisco. How does a young team react to major changes during the game? Perhaps Ryan Lindley has the game of his life and the Panthers find themselves having to play catch up. Will Cam keep his composure? It's sometimes easy for younger, inexperienced teams to lose focus once the bright lights come on.
Team They Would Hate To See - Green Bay
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Arizona Cardinals
11-5, #5 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 41-20 at Denver, won 28-17 at Dallas, won 14-6 vs Detroit, lost 19-3 at Seattle, lost 35-6 vs Seattle
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - If this team goes anywhere, it will be because of this unit. They have really been put under the gun recently due to the Cardinals' inability to move the ball and have cracked because of it (35-6 loss vs Seattle in Week 16). Despite this, they are still one of the most talented units in the league and excel in stopping Carolina's strength which is running the football. The defense cannot afford to have a bad day against Carolina as they can hopefully get the win to get Drew Stanton back in time for the Divisional Round game.
Offensive Playcalling - Even when Carson Palmer was the quarterback, it's not like this offense was considered as high powered as the Broncos or Eagles. While they don't move the chains as frequently or effectively as those teams, they do call enough deep shots and risky plays to put enough points on the board. This aggressive playcalling hasn't stopped, even with Lindley under center. The Cardinals would be fine with getting almost no offense, hitting on three big plays, counting on their defense, and winning a game along the lines of 17-10. It won't be pretty offensively, but all the Cardinals need to be is opportunistic with their chances.
Wide Receivers - Look, it's hard to find anything to get too excited about offensively with this team, but receiver is certainly where the skill is. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best in the game, Michael Floyd leads the team in yards and TDs, and John Brown has delivered some long plays in his rookie season as he is second on the team with five TDs. If Lindley can just get the ball in the general area of these guys, there's a pretty good bet that they will make a play. The strength for Carolina is their front seven so it would be wise to attack the Panthers through the air.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Quarterback - This goes without saying. You can only ask the defense to do so much when your offense can't move the ball and leaves the defense in bad spots. Drew Stanton might come back if the Cards win this game, but that's a big if and a big might. It just puts so much pressure on your team knowing that your offense will be lucky to score 17 points. Given the situation at QB, a deep playoff run seems improbable with a Super Bowl appearance/win seemingly impossible.
Third Time's A Nightmare - More than likely, if the Cards are to somehow win the NFC, they will have to beat Seattle after losing to them twice. Both times the Arizona defense actually played really well, but in those two games, the Arizona offense managed nine points combined. Lindley's effort actually produced more points (six) then Stanton's (three). Either way, they were overwhelmed towards the end of each game by their divisional rival, and nothing has changed that would make me give Arizona a better chance than the previous two times.
Running - Out of 32 NFL teams, Arizona is ranked 31st in total rushing yards behind only the Oakland Raiders. The problem for Arizona is that they are kind of in a catch-22 situation because their QB play has been so woeful. Teams stack the box and dare you to throw the ball. So do you run at a wall of eight defenders or trust your third string QB to try and make a play? They're 24th in the league in rushing attempts so they're kind of trying to run, but it seems like a lost cause, particularly if they get down early. If they do decide to establish the run against stacked boxes, they need to stay the course for as long as the score allows them to.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas
Detroit Lions
11-5, #6 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams: Lost 24-7 at Carolina, won 19-7 vs Green Bay, lost 14-6 at Arizona, lost 34-9 at New England, lost 30-20 at Green Bay
Three Reasons To Be Excited
Healthy - The Lions are probably the healthiest they've been all year. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson have all missed time this year, but all seem to be at or near 100%. Matthew Stafford and the Lions will need all hands on deck for this weekend's game and, if they win, a trip to Seattle next weekend. Stafford really struggles when he doesn't have all his players, particularly Johnson, so he should feel a lot more comfortable this Sunday in Dallas.
Suh Escaping Suspension - Ndamukong Suh's status was up in the air during the week as he was originally suspended for this game for stepping on the leg of Aaron Rodgers. Suh won his appeal, however, and will indeed be out there. With fellow defensive tackle Nick Fairley questionable due to injury, Suh's return is critical considering how successful the Cowboys' run game has been this year. The Lions rank first in rush yards allowed and the Cowboys are second in rush yards for. This game will be won and lost in the trenches, and Suh's presence should make a difference.
Megatron - Megatron, or Calvin Johnson, should feast in this game. The Cowboys, along with a lot of other teams, don't really have anyone that can match up with him one on one. That means safety help and openings for other capable players like Golden Tate or Bush out of the backfield. Dallas has only faced a handful of elite wide receivers, but Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr., Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson have all had great lines against this Cowboy defense. I expect the Lions to target Johnson early and often to try and move the ball down the field.
Three Reasons To Be Worried
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has had a down year by his standards as he threw for the least amount of yards in a season where he played 16 games, threw only 22 TDs, to go along with 12 interceptions and six fumbles. He, like Tony Romo, has the reputation of choking down the stretch and making that crucial mistake that costs his team a game. He almost cost the Lions a playoff spot in Week 16 as he threw two picks deep in Bears territory to allow Jimmy Clausen to almost pull off the upset. Unlike how the Cowboys are protecting Romo from himself, the Lions don't seem to be doing that with Stafford. That might come back to bite them as early as this Sunday.
Running - Detroit is right below Arizona in rushing attempts and right down there with the Cardinals in rushing yards at 28th in the league. Joique Bell has been running better as of late, but they are still not a team that will ground and pound you into submission like the Cowboys and Seahawks do. Putting the ball in Stafford's hands and trusting him not to make a mistake is a gamble. The Cowboys swarm to the ball well, and should be able to stop the run relatively well as Detroit's line is decent, but not great. I think they would have more success in the short passing game with Bush, rather than trying to slam it in the trenches with Bell and/or Bush.
No Home, Big Problem - Must be a NFC North thing. Similar to the Packers, the Lions are a shell of themselves when they go on the road. They lost in Carolina, beat the Jets by a TD in New York, won 17-3 over Minnesota, beat Atlanta by one, lost in the desert, got killed by the Patriots, almost lost to Jimmy Clausen in Chicago, then lost the NFC North title in Green Bay. As the sixth seed, they'll have to win in Dallas, in Seattle, and potentially, try once again to win in Green Bay. Whether it's changing routine before games or changing the way they call games, the Lions need to figure it out in the coming weeks.
Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Carolina
Matty O
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