NFC Playoff Preview

Seattle Seahawks
12-4, #1 seed, NFC West Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams:  Won 36-16 vs Green Bay, won 26-20 vs Denver, lost 30-23 vs Dallas, won 13-9 at Carolina, won 19-3 vs Arizona, won 35-6 at Arizona

Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - This is what they built their Super Bowl run on last year and they look to be trying to do the same this year.  Their defense is healthy and ended the regular season as the number one overall defense, allowing the fewest passing yards per game, the third fewest rushing yards per game, and the least points per game.  The Legion of Boom appears to be back in full force as they are shutting offenses down, giving their good, but still not great, offense more possessions.

Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot - Sometimes in the playoffs you don't have to be the best team, you just have to be the hottest team.  Well, Seattle might be both.  After going 3-3 in their first six games with losses to San Diego, Dallas at home, and most surprisingly, in St. Louis, people already started writing them off.  They had a nice run last year, but they would come back to reality in 2014.  Fast forward a few months and they are now a popular pick to win the Super Bowl with only a couple of teams deemed worthy of stopping them.  They won their last six games and gave up no more than 14 points in any of those games.  This included redeeming their St. Louis loss, two games each against the Cardinals and 49ers, and a drubbing of the high flying Eagles.

Russell Wilson - This guy just continues to make plays.  The Seahawks certainly want to ground and pound with Marshawn Lynch a fair amount, but Wilson is counted on to make plays in crucial spots.  He certainly doesn't have the gaudy numbers that an Aaron Rodgers or a Drew Brees will put up, but he makes plays when his team desperately needs one.  More often than not, his scrambling ability gets defenses spread out and chasing after him, only to watch him deliver a strike to a wide receiver who lost his man.  Not only that, but rarely does Wilson make the significant mistake that costs his team a game.

Three Reasons To Be Worried
Russell Wilson - While the scrambling is nice and all, he is still an average pure pocket thrower.  He is extremely dangerous when he scrambles, but if you contain him, then he can be beat.  The Cowboy game is the perfect example of how to slow down his playmaking ability.  The defensive front seven made it a point to keep him in the pocket and limit the time he had to throw.  This resulted in only two rushes for 12 yards, a 50% completion percentage, no TDs, and a 47.6 passer rating.  If, for whatever reason, the Seahawks get into a shootout because of special teams or defensive errors, Wilson is not the guy that will likely match another QB score for score.

The NFC - Green Bay, Carolina, and Dallas all have more than a puncher's chance of knocking this team off.  Heck, Dallas already did it up in Seattle.  Green Bay got crushed the opening game of the season, but this team wasn't really clicking until after the Detroit game in Week 3 and Rodgers told Packer fans to relax.  The Pack refused to throw Richard Sherman's way, though I'm sure the game plan will be much different if they meet again.  The Panthers almost beat Seattle in Week 8 in a 13-9 slug fest.  Carolina's defense has gotten even better since that game, and it appears as though they've found a run game.  While Seattle did win two out of those three games, I doubt they want to see any of those three teams again.

Teams Are Ready - There is a reason why it is hard to repeat.  Teams give you their best shot game in and game out.  Defenses and offenses can be broken down in film study and tendencies can, and do, emerge.  If the playoffs go chalk and all the high seeds win their games, Seattle will have to beat the Panthers, Packers, and Patriots to repeat as champs.  Not the easiest of all roads to another title.

Team They Would Hate To See - Dallas
Team They Would Love To See - Arizona

Green Bay Packers
12-4, #2 seed, NFC North Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams:  Lost 36-16 at Seattle, lost 19-7 at Detroit, won 38-17 vs Carolina, won 26-21 vs New England, won 30-20 vs Detroit

Three Reasons To Be Excited
Aaron Rodgers - Obviously!  Rodgers has been unbelievable this year as he has put up a line of 4,381 yards, 38 TDs, and only five interceptions.  He has been lights out at home, and will only have to leave Lambeau if the Seahawks are still alive in the NFC Championship Game.  He has played at an MVP level this year and I see no reason why that won't carry over into the playoffs.

Eddie Lacy - Lost in the aerial bonanza that takes place every time Green Bay plays is how well Lacy has done this year.  He's battled some aches and pains, but has gone over 1,000 yards for the second time in two years to go along with nine rushing TDs, and a 4.6 yards per carry average.  He has also contributed in the passing game as he has 42 receptions for 427 yards and four TDs.  When teams focus on locking down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, Lacy is ready to be a critical piece in the passing game.  Despite some stout run defenses in the NFC (Detroit, Arizona, Seattle), Lacy will need to play a crucial part in the success of this team.

Home Field Advantage - Home field is critical for any team, but particularly for the Pack.  It's not really so much about how well they play at home, which they do, but how relatively awful they are on the road.  They lost in Seattle, were held to seven points in a loss in Detroit, got to beat down a terrible Bears team in Chicago, were a fake spike away from losing in Miami, got demolished 44-23 in the Superdome, won by a mere field goal in Minnesota, lost to a Kyle Orton-led Bufflo team, then only managed 20 points in a win over the Bucs.  If they do wind up having to travel to the Northwest, they better figure out how to fix their road woes.

Three Reasons To Be Worried
Defense - Similar to how Seattle's average offense is protected by their elite defense, Green Bay's average defense is protected by their elite offense.  This defense can afford to give up yards and points because they know Rodgers and co. will likely post a score in the 30s or 40s.  That is a risky game to play.  When the offense can't produce at that clip, however, it will likely be the end of the Pack in the playoffs.  They played with fire against the Falcons and won, but did the same against the Saints and lost.  If the offense stalls, can this defense steal a game or two in the playoffs?  I have my doubts.

Aaron Rodgers' Calf - Packers fans held their breath last week when Rodgers went down with a calf injury and had to be carted off the field.  Not only did it seem like their shot at a NFC North crown was out the door, but any hopes of a deep playoff run left with that cart.  Luckily for them, Rodgers came back and led the Pack to the win, earning them the number two seed and a crucial extra week of rest.  Still, he wasn't as mobile in the second half, and it is quite possible he is not fully healed by January 11th, even with the extra rest.  If Matt Flynn leads the Pack to a Super Bowl, I think the universe may explode.

Seattle - Let's be honest, if the defense does enough to get the job done and Rodgers stays healthy, the Pack are a virtual lock for the NFC Championship Game.  The problem is, they would have to go to Seattle against an elite defense.  I have a feeling this would turn out very similar to the Buffalo game that Green Bay played in Week 15.  Rodgers would have a hard time cracking an elite defense in a hostile environment, and Seattle's offense would do just enough to earn them the win.  The Pack have to hope that someone knocks them off before Championship weekend.

Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas

Dallas Cowboys
12-4, #3 seed, NFC East Champ
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams:  Won 30-23 at Seattle, lost 28-17 vs Arizona, won 42-7 vs Indianapolis

Three Reasons To Be Excited
Offensive Line - This unit is the best offensive line in the game.  They have helped paved the way for DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo's excellent years.  They were a big reason why Dallas was able to go into Seattle and win that game.  They won up front at the line of scrimmage, limiting the amount of pressure Seattle could get and limiting the amount of times Dallas had to attack the Legion of Boom secondary.  This unit's hardest test will be this weekend against the Lions, particularly if Nick Fairley can play.  This line is the reason the Cowboys have gotten this far.

Rod Marinelli - Marinelli will see familiar faces in the first two rounds of the playoffs.  Marinelli coached the Lions from 2006-08, then faced them twice a year as the defensive coordinator of the Bears from 2010-12.  Marinelli faced the Pack twice a year during both of those stints.  Obviously the Lions, Packers, and Cowboys are all different since then, but familiarity always helps in any matchup.  Marinelli has resurrected this defense from the disaster that was last year and has them playing above their talent levels.  Individually they're average at best, but they play above average as a unit.  In facing Megatron this weekend, and possibly Rodgers, Nelson, Lacy, and Cobb next weekend, this unit will need to hold up.

Tony Romo - Where did this Tony Romo come from?  After a few years of making the wrong mistake at the wrong time, Romo has begun to start making the right plays at any time.  He has his highest QB rating of his career, the second most TD passes, and tied for the least amount of interceptions during a 15+ game season.  He seems to be fully over the back injury that plagued him at the start of the year, and is playing at an elite level.  There's even talk he should get consideration for MVP of the league.  He could care less about that though as he is determined to win Dallas a Super Bowl after years of excelling in the regular season, then collapsing down the stretch.

Three Reasons To Be Worried
Strength Of Schedule - They only played three games against current playoff teams out of 16 games.  Not the best way to prepare, although their last one came in Week 16 in a rout of the Colts.  Looking back on their schedule and reflecting on how teams actually turned out, their record is neither impressive or surprising.  The only real shockers were a win in Seattle, an overtime loss to the Colt McCoy-led Redskins on Monday Night, and a 33-10 pasting at the hands of the Eagles on Thanksgiving.  Granted, they took care of the teams they were supposed to, but everyone in the playoffs is great.  I'm not sure their regular season schedule prepared them for the gauntlet of teams they will face in the coming week(s).

Defense - Marinelli might have them playing above expectations, but they still aren't that good.  The only team they held to single digits all year were the Colts, and they made the game against the Bears, win in Philly, win in St. Louis, and both Giants games closer than they needed to be.  I think this unit can at least contain Calvin Johnson this weekend and halt the Lions' offense, but I have no idea what they would come up with to even slow down Rodgers and the Packers.  This unit plays hard and tackles well, but even that might not be enough if the Cowboys make a deep run in the playoffs.

There's No Great Matchup - Dallas doesn't really match up, at least on paper, with any of these teams.  Green Bay can destroy their defense, Detroit's strength is in its defensive front seven to stop Murray and the run, Cam, Carolina, and the read option will likely give Dallas' defense headaches, Seattle's defense is back to being elite, and Arizona already beat Dallas albeit with Brandon Weeden as the starting QB.  Dallas still only managed seven offensive points 92 team rushing yards in that loss to the Cardinals.  I would say that Seattle might be Dallas' best chance simply because they beat them earlier in the year, but it will be a grind for Dallas no matter who they play.

Team They Would Hate To See - Panthers
Team They Would Love To See - Seattle

Carolina Panthers
7-8-1, #4 seed, NFC South Champs
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams:  Won 24-7 vs Detroit, lost 37-19 vs Pittsburgh, lost 38-10 at Baltimore, tied 37-37 at Cincinnati, lost 38-17 at Green Bay, lost 13-9 vs Seattle

Three Reasons To Be Excited
Running Game - Jonathan Stewart finally seems to be healthy and running at a good clip.  He exceeded 100 yards rushing in two of Carolina's last four games, and has worked to separate himself from the injured, but returning, DeAngelo Williams.  Cam Newton is also back to his old running ways after being protected at the start of the season due to offseason ankle surgery.  The read option is fully back and should keep any defense on their toes.  This will, in turn, open up the play action for Cam to hit rookie sensation Kelvin Benjamin on passes.

Defense Is Picking Up - Coming off a phenomenal defensive season last year, this season was much rockier.  From Weeks 3-7, they gave up at least 37 points four times.  Since their bye week, however, this defense has really picked it up.  Week 13 shows that Minnesota posted 31 points on them, but 14 of those points were from blocked punts and the Panthers held Minnesota to only 210 total yards.  The following week, they held Drew Brees and the Saints to 310 yards in the Superdome.  Finally, with the division on the line, they held the Falcons to 288 total yards in the Georgia Dome and scored two defensive TDs.  If they can come anywhere close to the level they were playing last year, it will be tough to score on the Panthers, no matter who they're facing.

Luck Of The Draw - Can this team have any more things fall into place for them?  This is a team that had a run from Weeks 3-13, only won one game, and still won their division!  Despite almost trying to give the division away, the Saints and Falcons were equally terrible, allowing a 7-8-1 team to make the playoffs and host a playoff game.  Their luck doesn't stop there, however.  Because of the way everything worked out in the NFC playoff picture, Carolina was able to avoid Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo, and will instead face...Ryan Lindley.  Obviously anything can happen and the Cards' defense is no joke, but knowing that you won't have to face a QB that can hang huge numbers on you is a plus for this Carolina team.

Three Reasons To Be Worried
Who Have You Beaten? - Well, no one really.  They beat Detroit early in the year, but the rest of their wins have come against sub-.500 teams.  Along the way, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Minnesota absolutely demolished them.  While Dallas is a team that hasn't had many tests, Carolina is a team that has had many, and has failed many.  Unlike in the regular season, there are no pushover teams in the playoffs.  When push comes to shove, will Carolina be able to shove back against the best teams in the NFL?

Decide On A Lead Running Back - It sounds as if DeAngelo Williams is ready to play in this weekend's game.  It will be interesting to see if they decide to integrate Williams back into the starting lineup with Stewart playing so well recently.  I think when they keep rotating these backs over and over again, it gets them out of rhythm and leads to a downgrade in production for both of them.  Even though Williams has given a lot to this franchise, I think they need to let him take a back seat to Stewart so that he can continue the hot streak he is on.

Lack Of Experience - This is a young team.  The only taste of the playoffs that a lot of these guys have had was last year.  They earned the second seed in the NFC and got a first round bye.  They were unceremoniously whooped 23-10 in the divisional round against San Francisco.  How does a young team react to major changes during the game?  Perhaps Ryan Lindley has the game of his life and the Panthers find themselves having to play catch up.  Will Cam keep his composure?  It's sometimes easy for younger, inexperienced teams to lose focus once the bright lights come on.

Team They Would Hate To See - Green Bay
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas

Arizona Cardinals
11-5, #5 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams:  Lost 41-20 at Denver, won 28-17 at Dallas, won 14-6 vs Detroit, lost 19-3 at Seattle, lost 35-6 vs Seattle

Three Reasons To Be Excited
Defense - If this team goes anywhere, it will be because of this unit.  They have really been put under the gun recently due to the Cardinals' inability to move the ball and have cracked because of it (35-6 loss vs Seattle in Week 16).  Despite this, they are still one of the most talented units in the league and excel in stopping Carolina's strength which is running the football.  The defense cannot afford to have a bad day against Carolina as they can hopefully get the win to get Drew Stanton back in time for the Divisional Round game.

Offensive Playcalling - Even when Carson Palmer was the quarterback, it's not like this offense was considered as high powered as the Broncos or Eagles.  While they don't move the chains as frequently or effectively as those teams, they do call enough deep shots and risky plays to put enough points on the board.  This aggressive playcalling hasn't stopped, even with Lindley under center.  The Cardinals would be fine with getting almost no offense, hitting on three big plays, counting on their defense, and winning a game along the lines of 17-10.  It won't be pretty offensively, but all the Cardinals need to be is opportunistic with their chances.

Wide Receivers - Look, it's hard to find anything to get too excited about offensively with this team, but receiver is certainly where the skill is.  Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best in the game, Michael Floyd leads the team in yards and TDs, and John Brown has delivered some long plays in his rookie season as he is second on the team with five TDs.  If Lindley can just get the ball in the general area of these guys, there's a pretty good bet that they will make a play.  The strength for Carolina is their front seven so it would be wise to attack the Panthers through the air.

Three Reasons To Be Worried
Quarterback - This goes without saying.  You can only ask the defense to do so much when your offense can't move the ball and leaves the defense in bad spots.  Drew Stanton might come back if the Cards win this game, but that's a big if and a big might.  It just puts so much pressure on your team knowing that your offense will be lucky to score 17 points.  Given the situation at QB, a deep playoff run seems improbable with a Super Bowl appearance/win seemingly impossible.

Third Time's A Nightmare - More than likely, if the Cards are to somehow win the NFC, they will have to beat Seattle after losing to them twice.  Both times the Arizona defense actually played really well, but in those two games, the Arizona offense managed nine points combined.  Lindley's effort actually produced more points (six) then Stanton's (three).  Either way, they were overwhelmed towards the end of each game by their divisional rival, and nothing has changed that would make me give Arizona a better chance than the previous two times.

Running - Out of 32 NFL teams, Arizona is ranked 31st in total rushing yards behind only the Oakland Raiders.  The problem for Arizona is that they are kind of in a catch-22 situation because their QB play has been so woeful.  Teams stack the box and dare you to throw the ball.  So do you run at a wall of eight defenders or trust your third string QB to try and make a play?  They're 24th in the league in rushing attempts so they're kind of trying to run, but it seems like a lost cause, particularly if they get down early.  If they do decide to establish the run against stacked boxes, they need to stay the course for as long as the score allows them to.

Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Dallas

Detroit Lions
11-5, #6 seed, Wild Card
Games vs 2014-15 Playoff Teams:  Lost 24-7 at Carolina, won 19-7 vs Green Bay, lost 14-6 at Arizona, lost 34-9 at New England, lost 30-20 at Green Bay

Three Reasons To Be Excited
Healthy - The Lions are probably the healthiest they've been all year.  Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson have all missed time this year, but all seem to be at or near 100%.  Matthew Stafford and the Lions will need all hands on deck for this weekend's game and, if they win, a trip to Seattle next weekend.  Stafford really struggles when he doesn't have all his players, particularly Johnson, so he should feel a lot more comfortable this Sunday in Dallas.

Suh Escaping Suspension - Ndamukong Suh's status was up in the air during the week as he was originally suspended for this game for stepping on the leg of Aaron Rodgers.  Suh won his appeal, however, and will indeed be out there.  With fellow defensive tackle Nick Fairley questionable due to injury, Suh's return is critical considering how successful the Cowboys' run game has been this year.  The Lions rank first in rush yards allowed and the Cowboys are second in rush yards for.  This game will be won and lost in the trenches, and Suh's presence should make a difference.

Megatron - Megatron, or Calvin Johnson, should feast in this game.  The Cowboys, along with a lot of other teams, don't really have anyone that can match up with him one on one.  That means safety help and openings for other capable players like Golden Tate or Bush out of the backfield.  Dallas has only faced a handful of elite wide receivers, but Alshon Jeffery, Odell Beckham Jr., Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson have all had great lines against this Cowboy defense.  I expect the Lions to target Johnson early and often to try and move the ball down the field.

Three Reasons To Be Worried
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has had a down year by his standards as he threw for the least amount of yards in a season where he played 16 games, threw only 22 TDs, to go along with 12 interceptions and six fumbles.  He, like Tony Romo, has the reputation of choking down the stretch and making that crucial mistake that costs his team a game.  He almost cost the Lions a playoff spot in Week 16 as he threw two picks deep in Bears territory to allow Jimmy Clausen to almost pull off the upset.  Unlike how the Cowboys are protecting Romo from himself, the Lions don't seem to be doing that with Stafford.  That might come back to bite them as early as this Sunday.

Running - Detroit is right below Arizona in rushing attempts and right down there with the Cardinals in rushing yards at 28th in the league.  Joique Bell has been running better as of late, but they are still not a team that will ground and pound you into submission like the Cowboys and Seahawks do.  Putting the ball in Stafford's hands and trusting him not to make a mistake is a gamble.  The Cowboys swarm to the ball well, and should be able to stop the run relatively well as Detroit's line is decent, but not great.  I think they would have more success in the short passing game with Bush, rather than trying to slam it in the trenches with Bell and/or Bush.

No Home, Big Problem - Must be a NFC North thing.  Similar to the Packers, the Lions are a shell of themselves when they go on the road.  They lost in Carolina, beat the Jets by a TD in New York, won 17-3 over Minnesota, beat Atlanta by one, lost in the desert, got killed by the Patriots, almost lost to Jimmy Clausen in Chicago, then lost the NFC North title in Green Bay.  As the sixth seed, they'll have to win in Dallas, in Seattle, and potentially, try once again to win in Green Bay.  Whether it's changing routine before games or changing the way they call games, the Lions need to figure it out in the coming weeks.

Team They Would Hate To See - Seattle
Team They Would Love To See - Carolina

Matty O