"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." It is as though Charles Dickens was chronicling my fantasy season this year. Two different leagues, two vastly different results. One league for money, one for a Cubs game. One standard scoring, the other used point per reception (PPR). One was managed by myself, the other was part of a project in class with the team run by two others apart from myself. One saw a title win for me, the other saw a second to last place finish. Along the way I noticed things, regretted things, and rejoiced over things. Here are some highlights from this year, as well as previewing next year. Let's start at the draft.
Best Draft Pick
Dez Bryant (WR - Cowboys) - He was on my team in both leagues. Both leagues were 12 team leagues and I got him in the 4th in my pay league and the 5th in the other. Usually I would try to dig a bit deeper for best draft/value pick, but the bottom parts of both my drafts weren't the best. Having said that, getting Dez where I got him, is ridiculous. What do Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz all have in common? They were all WRs taken before Dez, but finishing behind him in fantasy points this season.
I can't fault people for not picking him and, as you'll find out later, I actually tried actively to trade him. He has had a history of drops and had his share of off the field problems. But c'mon, the dude is a physical freak. You had to figure he would break out at some point. He destroyed the opposition in the second half of the season and rewarded his owners with a 34.4 (43.4 in PPR) pt effort in the championship week for most leagues. The scary part is that he put up insane fantasy numbers despite three games early in the season with less than 2 pts and a broken finger in the last two weeks. Imagine what he'll do next year with a full off season. Yikes!
Worst Draft Pick
Phillip Rivers (QB - Chargers) - Where to begin with this clown? He has become my most hated player in football. I figured he got all the suckiness out of his system last year. There's no way he could be bad again this year right? Wrong! He only put up three games over 20 pts all season, whereas RG3 did that in his first three games. I actually watched a couple Chargers games and his interceptions were just awful. I'd just scratch my head and wonder what in the world he was throwing to/at? His talent makes him so tempting, but he had a banged up offensive line and made terrible decisions. Although I got him in the fifth round, I still took him ahead of the likes of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Andrew Luck. Get it together Phil!
Best Waiver Pickup
Alfred Morris (RB - Redskins) - Morris wasn't on my team for that long, but he was a key in a trade package that allowed me to get Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster (I gave LeSean McCoy, Roddy White, and Morris for AP and Foster). Even if I had kept him, he still had one heck of a season and finished ahead of the likes of Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Michael Turner to name a few. It is very rare that a player that productive is able to be scooped up off waivers, but he went undrafted in virtually every league. Anyone that was lucky enough to pick him up sure was a happy camper.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Ryan Tannehill (QB - Dolphins) - This was the contributing factor to one of only three losses in my PPR league. Aaron Rodgers was on a bye and Tannehill had put up decent numbers and was going up against the soft Titans defense. He should be good for 15-17 pts, at least double digits. What does this jamoke do? Puts up 2.58 pts. Those are Phillip Rivers numbers! Although we still finished first in the overall standings, that game made it closer than it needed to be.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Dez Bryant - See a theme here? Dez is awesome. Thankfully, his awesomeness did not show until late in the season. Before then, I'm pretty sure I tried to trade Dez on a daily basis. I packaged him with others, tried trading straight up, I just thought he would struggle down the stretch and Romo would go back to throwing to Miles Austin a lot. My quest to trade him started after his week 10 performance against Philly where he posted 14 (ESPN Standard Scoring) pts. The offer I thought would have the most success was Dez, Titus Young (a nine point effort in week 10 and 22 pts two weeks before that), and Josh Freeman (guy I was trading with was a Vick owner) for Calvin Johnson. It was declined and Dez by himself went on to post 121 points from week 11 on, whereas Megatron went for only 104. Fortunately for him, his team still made the playoffs, but lost last week in the semis, by 12.
Player I Can't Believe I Traded
Adrian Peterson (RB - Vikings) - Yep, I'm the doofus that traded AP. Hear me out though. When I traded him, he constantly had injury updates saying something was hurting. I still didn't trust his knee all that much either and cringed whenever I saw him take a hit. Before I traded him (week 9 when he went bananas), he had only put up two good games, against Jacksonville and Arizona. He also still had to face Seattle, the Bears (twice), Houston, and his bye. He was getting his yards, but not his TDs, and I didn't think that would change. Silly me. He went for 31 pts in week 9 against Seattle and finished the year with at least 25 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Lesson learned: Never doubt AP's recovery from injury. Ever.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Matt Ryan (QB - Falcons) - This was a toss up between Ryan, Seattle's D, and Reggie Wayne, but Ryan takes the cake. Ryan's draft position was all over the place as he dropped to the eighth in one of mine, and was taken as high as the third in my other. A discussion on value based drafting will be presented later. The fact is he was taken after a number of quarterbacks due to him not putting up monster numbers in the past and the Falcons leaning on Michael Turner and the run game to win them games. Instead, the Falcons unveiled a hurry up, no huddle offense which Ryan thrived in. Sure he had some bad games (Oakland and Arizona come to mind), but he also had spectacular ones such as the opener against KC, at the Superdome against New Orleans, and most recently on the road against the Lions to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. He won't go nearly as low next year since the secret is out, but he gave great value if you snagged him in 2012.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Christian Ponder (QB - Vikings) - Similar to the Best Sleeper section, there were a few to choose from here. I thought Ponder would make great strides this year with AP and Percy Harvin helping out as well as another year in the Viking's system. Nope. Even though the Vikings are playing outstanding this year, Ponder has been far from great. He's had a couple nice games such as against San Fran (go figure) and at Washington, but his inconsistency continues to hurt him. It didn't help that Harvin got injured and the offense started to lean heavily on AP. I actually still agree with everything I wrote in his sleeper section, it just didn't pan out. Maybe next year buddy.
Best Bust Prediction
Jermichael Finley (TE - Packers) - What happened to this guy? He used to be the next Antonio Gates, but drops and broken chemistry with A-Rod have led him to many fantasy benches and even the waiver wire in some leagues. His talent and size are there, he just couldn't put it all together this year. He had two, yes two, double digit fantasy outings. He finished behind the likes of Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, and Scott Chandler. Not exactly an All Star group of TEs right there. In a twist of fate, I think I'll actually put him in my sleeper section next year because I think his draft stock will fall significantly. The guy can still play and if he could catch the ball, he has the potential to put up Gronk and Graham type numbers. Only time will tell.
Worst Bust Prediction
Bears D/SPT - Here's one for the Bears fans reading this. I was wrong about your defense. They put up five games of over 20 points and got takeaways left and right. I thought this group would start the aging/breaking down process this year, but it was not to be. For those that picked the Steelers D over this group, sorry. My prediction of bust actually started to come true towards the end of the season. Urlacher got hurt (which I thought would happen at the start of the season) along with many other players and the Bears put up -1, 5, and 6 points in weeks 13, 14, and 15, respectively. I still don't like them for next season as I think they were way too dependent on turnovers this year. I'll say that next year is the year they bust. Gotta get it right sometime don't I?
Just a few other tidbits of info:
A note on value based drafting
I mentioned this before when talking about Matt Ryan. Value based drafting is what all fantasy players should do. This is the reason why your draft probably saw a number of running backs go early and very few WRs. Why is that? The reason is because I can find a quality WR in the later rounds, but that is very hard to do with running backs. For example, in one of my leagues, Mike Williams (WR - TB) was taken in the 13th round. This was the number 2 WR on the Bucs. He would be on the field, playing, after having only one down year last year. By comparison, Rashard Mendenhall was taken in that same round, a few spots after Williams. The thing is, Mendenhall was injured, was already guaranteed to miss some games, and had to adjust to a new system with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. So in the 13th round you can have a solid #2 WR or a RB with injury issues that is guaranteed to miss games. See the point? You can get good receivers late, not so much with running backs.
The other example I will bring up is the drafting of RG3. He was taken in the second round in one of my drafts. Despite the fact he put up first round numbers, this was not a good pick. It took all of us drafting by surprise. Why is it not a good pick, you might ask given his extraordinary season? Well, consider some of the players taken after that pick in the same round were Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Wes Welker. RG3 was being taken around the 6th round in most drafts. This person's selection in the sixth round was Shonn Greene. So his team could have had RG3/Forte instead of RG3/Greene. Realize that even with Greene's 34 point performance, Forte missing the St. Louis game, and Forte not scoring more than 20 points, he still finished ahead of Grenne. The difference is even more staggering if you consider if he would have drafted Marshall or one of the Falcons receivers. Just keep that in mind about players that are projected low. As great as you think they will be, you'd be better off getting them at their appropriate spot rather than passing up a great player in the first or second round.
RG3 Works For Me
Along these lines, anyone who did draft RG3 should have at least been in their league's playoffs. Even the person described above made it. The team I played in the PPR league for the title had RG3. If you had RG3 on your team and did not make the playoffs, never play fantasy again (unless you drafted MJD and DeMarco Murray). Heck, as long as you found a viable backup for week 15, you should have made your title game. Period. Some people I know had RG3 and A-Rod on the same team! Imagine the trade possibilities. So, again, although I don't want to deter people from fantasy football, if you had RG3 and didn't make the playoffs, it might be time to find a new hobby.
PPR Awesomeness
I didn't really notice the difference between PPR and non until this year. I had always been in a standard league, but I like the PPR a lot more. I feel there is much more skill in player selection involved. With standard leagues, players essentially are rewarded for the big plays and TDs. Mike Wallace might only have one catch, but if that catch is for 60 yards and a TD then BAM, 12 points and you're glad you started him. PPR is great because you can have a player like Danny Amendola, who will not get drafted anywhere near Mike Wallace, get 6 catches for 60 yards and he's got 12. I feel like standard is a lot more luck and PPR rewards true contributors to their teams. Wallace's one deep catch might come in garbage time, whereas Amendola contributes throughout the game and probably helps the Rams pick up one or two first downs. Obviously the big names like Megatron and AJ Green will be great in both formats, but it allows the Amendolas and Antonio Browns of the world to make a difference in fantasy football.
Luck, No, Not Andrew
Last, but not least, luck. I'm beginning to lose faith in my fantasy predictions and wonder how people like Matthew Berry have jobs. I'm not saying there's zero skill involved. If you start Mark Sanchez, the Jaguars D, and Shane Vereen then yeah, you'll probably lose. But there were so many instances this year where my team would outscore nearly every other team, except the one I was facing. Players that have no business having big games, would have big games against my team. My team, in the regular season, outscored 6 out of the other 11 teams in my league including two teams that went to the playoffs. For points against, however, I had the most points scored against me by 40 points. One team barely got 1000 scored against him which is ridiculous. Here is my shout out to all the players that pushed the luck NOT in my favor
Oh hey, Reggie Bush wanna drop 30 on me, the only time you will all season? Sure. "Don't worry," says Jamaal Charles, "I can top that." 35 dropped on my face. Rams rookie kicker, bet you feel like putting up 17? Yep! Jordy Nelson knows how to put up 30 too (I actually won that week though). Issac Redman about to drop 20 on me? Seriously? You haven't been playing all year. Andre Johnson, time to remember how to play when you play my team. Oh right, here's 33 for ya.
Whew. Deep breath. I actually won three of my last four matchups including the Sacko Bowl, so no hilarious, embarrassing stunts for me. Also, a title win in my PPR league helped to ease the pain. All I know is my Sundays are about to become much more productive, and I cannot wait for next year. Worst to first baby!
My Top 10 for next year
1. AP
2. Foster
3. RG3
4. A-Rod
5. Brady
6. Rice
7. Lynch
8. Megatron
9. Brees
10. AJ Green/Doug Martin
Matty O
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