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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

NIU in the BCS

Like it or not, the Huskies are in.  12-1, undefeated in the MAC, and crashing the BCS as the first non-automatic qualifying conference team to make a BCS bowl that was not undefeated.  Since the announcement, the decision has caused quite a bit of controversy.  Even as a Huskies fan, I can see both sides to it, although I do think in the end, they deserve to be there.

For those who don't follow NIU, Kirk Herbstreit is public enemy number one amongst Huskie fans.  During the Selection Show that put NIU against 11-2 Florida State, Herbstreit called it a sad state for college football that the Huskies got in, going so far as to call it a joke.  While his choice of words was probably not the best, he did bring up some good points (hear me out Huskie fans).  Unlike all the "BCS busters" in the past, this Huskies team doesn't really have that hype or signature win.  The only team from a major conference they beat was Kansas, and they finished last in the Big 12.  Their other big win was against a questionable number 17 Kent State in the MAC Championship.  I actually thought the Kent State and NIU rankings should have been reversed going into that game (NIU was No. 21).  Add in a close win against Army, and you have a less than impressive resume to say the least.  The lackluster schedule that lesser conference teams play has been used against teams for years.  The thing that should give people pause when seeing NIU in a BCS game is the way they went through their "easy" schedule.

One point ESPN analysts kept bringing up, that is a good point, is the BCS busters of old absolutely DOMINATED their competition.  Take the 2006 Boise State team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.  They only played one team from a power conference in Oregon State, who eventually finished the year in the top 25.  Apart from that, they played the likes of Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Idaho.  Similar to NIU's Toledo, BSU also had a formidable team in their conference that year that finished 11-3 and 7-1 in the WAC in Hawaii.  So while the easiness of schedule is comparable, the dominance is not.  NIU beat a last place Kansas team by 7.  BSU beat said Oregon State team who finished in the top 25, by 28.  They rolled through their schedule, surviving a scare against San Jose State, but ultimately finishing undefeated.  Due to Ohio State losing in the National Championship, they wound up as the only undefeated team that year.  It was a memorable team, who played in one of the most memorable bowl games ever.

To be fair to NIU, they also had a stretch of conference games where they were blowing teams out, and they have yet to play their bowl game which could turn into a classic. Still, I wouldn't even call this NIU team the most memorable one in recent years.  The team I would turn to would be the 2003 Huskies team led by Michael Turner.  They started the year beating a top 20 Maryland team, went on the road and beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and beat Iowa State of the Big 12.  Realize that the Iowa State win that year was the icing on the cake, whereas the Kansas win this year was a "big" deal.  Unfortunately, that NIU team lost to a ranked Bowling Green team whose only losses that year were to #4 Ohio State and twice to a Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami of Ohio team, and rival Toledo, both games away from home.  Due to the lack of bowl tie-ins, the 10-2 Huskies were left watching bowl games instead of playing in them.  Instead of a worthy Huskies team, Northwestern, Kansas, and UCLA played in bowls, lost, and finished with losing records (6-7).  Now the shoe is on the other foot due to the BCS system.  It is for this reason that the Huskies deserve to be in the Orange Bowl.

The only teams that I do have sympathy for in this whole BCS mess are Georgia and Texas A&M.  Georgia played the #2 ranked Crimson Tide hard and lost the game in a heart breaking way.  I thought they would wind up beating the Tide and playing Notre Dame for the title.  They improved greatly throughout the year and deserve a BCS bowl spot.  A&M actually did beat that Crimson Tide team and had potential Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel electrifying stadiums all year.  Their only losses were by three to #3 Florida and by five to #8 ranked LSU.  But don't remove NIU to get those two great teams in there.  Instead, if we're trying to keep mediocre teams out of the BCS, remove Louisville and Wisconsin.

Louisville won the Big East.  Big whoop.  One could easily make the argument that the MAC is better than the Big East overall.  Unlike NIU, who played a ranked Kent State team, Louisville went the entire season without having to do so.  While NIU's loss came by one to Iowa, Louisville was throttled by 7-5 Syracuse by 19 and lost in triple overtime to a 5-7 Connecticut team.  They won by seven points or less in six of their ten wins, compared to four such wins for NIU.  Wisconsin, meanwhile, might have destroyed Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, but their overall record is 8-5 and only 4-4 in the Big Ten.  The only reason they were even there is because the two teams ahead of them in their division, Ohio State and Penn State, are ineligible to play in the Big Ten title game.  The only ranked team they played this year was Nebraska, having lost in the regular season but winning when it counted.  This is also a team that beat Northern Iowa and Utah State by a combined seven points.  SEVEN!  And these two teams belong in the BCS?  That Mr. Herbstreit, is the true joke of the BCS.

Look, NIU can't change its schedule.  They don't control who is in the MAC.  They play who they play.  Larger programs refuse to face NIU at home and, given NIU's recent success, refuse to play them at all.  This is one of the reasons why Iowa played NIU at Soldier Field rather than a home and home.  NIU beat everyone on their schedule besides that Iowa team, although it was only by one the first game of the season.  The team wasn't nearly as good as it is now and they had their chances to win that game.  After that game, they went on a tear, averaging 42 points per game the rest of the year.  They hung 63 points on UMass and 55 on Central Michigan, both Divison I FBS teams.  Before you write that off as just beating up on bad teams, realize that NIU's Orange Bowl opponent Florida State hung 55 on Savannah State.  Savannah State is a Division I FCS or I-AA team who finished last in their conference this year.  Clearly, despite a flawed BCS system, NIU deserves to be there.  They won their conference, beating a tough Kent State team in the process, and finished with only one loss.  It's not their fault the Georgias and A&Ms of the world got left out.

This may be one of the last years that something like this happens because of the approaching playoff system.  I hope NIU takes advantage of it.  It seems people are pushing this game to the side and ready to call it a blow out.  Not so fast my friend.  Hope comes in the form of Jordan Lynch and the Clemson game that Florida State won.  Although they beat the Tigers, Clemson's quarterback Tajh Boyd presents similar problems for defenses that Lynch has.  Both are more than capable runners and can throw the ball when called upon.  Boyd threw for 237 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 44 rushing yards before the Tigers fell.  If Lynch can have the kind of patience he displayed in the MAC title game, I think he can have success against this FSU defense.  I do think some of the bounces and "lucky" plays will have to go NIU's way to win this game, but it will be closer than people think.  Apart from the Fiesta Bowl (Oregon vs Kansas State), this is the bowl that you should tune into as far as the BCS is concerned.

BCS Bowl Matchups as it should be
Fiesta Bowl:  Oregon vs Kansas State - They got this one right in what should be the best bowl game out of all of them, BCS or not

Orange Bowl:  Florida vs Florida State - Rivalry game in a BCS bowl?  Taking place in Miami? Yes please.  All the legends would come back for that game.  It would be great for the sport

Sugar Bowl:  Stanford vs NIU - This would be a great game in my opinion with superstar Lynch going against freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan in a surprisingly evenly matched game.  Also, putting this game in New Orleans would get rid of Stanford's closeness to the Rose Bowl and put NIU in a dome (see MAC Championship for NIU's success in domes)

Rose Bowl:  Texas A&M vs Georgia - Regardless of who is playing, the Rose Bowl is always a big deal, so why not let the two SEC titans battle it out.  Being in separate divisions kept them from playing each other this year.  Manziel and veteran Aaron Murray would get to duke it out in what would be an exciting, high scoring affair

Matty O

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