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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Would The Real #1 Please Stand Up?

In the midst of another crazy week of college basketball, one must beg the question, who is the true favorite to win the National Championship?  Obviously, anyone can be beat in the tournament and there's no guarantee of a one seed even reaching the Final Four (see 2011).  Every year, however, one team usually distinguishes itself from the pack where the majority of experts can agree that this is the team to beat.

A great example would be Kentucky last year.  An absolutely dominant team that wound up winning the title.  Their only two losses were a stunner in the SEC tournament and against Indiana in Bloomington in one of the most hostile crowds I've ever seen at a basketball game.  You could even look at the Ohio State and Kansas teams from the 2011 year where no one seed made the Final Four.  They didn't win it, but they had certainly separated themselves from everyone else that year.  Kansas had the Morris twins, Markieff and Marcus, who led them to a 32-2 record and the Big 12 regular season and tournament championship.  Ohio State, meanwhile, was beating up the Big 10 with Jared Sullinger on their way to a 32-2 record and the Big 10 regular season and tournament championship.  These teams were dominant, with the consensus being that one of them had a good shot to win the National Championship.  This year, however, the true contender remains a mystery.  Here's a breakdown of just some of the many top contenders vying for that title.

Indiana
Indiana would have to be considered the "favorite" at this point.  When they're on, I will admit that they are the most dangerous team in the country.  They also have potential Player Of The Year Victor Oladipo and big man Tyler Zeller, both first round picks in the upcoming NBA draft.  They play at one of the best home court advantages in the country in Assembly Hall.  Despite this, do you really get a sense of dominance with this team?  Could they hang with Kentucky 2012 or Kansas 2011?  I think not.  It's a lofty comparison, but that's what true title contenders should be; head and shoulders above everyone else.  This team has already lost 4 times (vs Butler on a neutral floor, vs Wisconsin, at Illinois, and at Minnesota) while surviving a few scares along the way.  The Big 10 is brutal for anyone this year and their wins at Michigan State and at Ohio State are worthy of praise.  Still, this team's chances of winning the title are about the same as them losing in the second round to an 8 or 9 seed.

Duke
Coach K and Duke only have 3 losses on the year (at NC State, at Miami, and at Maryland) in a relatively weak ACC this year.  Their wins over Ohio State and Louisville early in the year were impressive, but they have not beaten any opponents that are currently ranked as of this writing.  They have been strong at home, but last time I checked, there will be zero tournament games in Cameron Indoor Stadium.  They're a very small team, which will cost them come tournament time.  I think any team with a dominant big man can take out this Duke team and the Big Ten and Big East has that in spades.  If or rather when, the Devils run into a team like that, they will struggle and probably lose.  Their loss to Maryland was a great example.  Alex Len, a 7'1" center for Maryland, was the player of the game when they knocked off Duke as he accounted for 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks.  Duke's tallest starter, Mason Plumlee, is only 6'10" and a small one at that.  I think Duke is going to go out early this year due to their lack of size and competition during the season.

Gonzaga
The Zags are an interesting case because they do not play in a power conference.  It's easy to look at their schedule and claim they are an easy pick for a National Championship.  They currently sit 27-2 with their only losses being to Illinois and at Butler.  Not the best of all losses, but understandable.  Their problem is that their schedule is cupcake city.  They play the likes of Portland, San Francisco, and Pepperdine.  Compare that to Indiana who had an eight day period where they played against Michigan, at Illinois, and at Ohio State.  When Gonzaga wins, no one is really impressed.  It's hard to judge them and teams like Butler based on what they do during the regular season.  Having said that, how can anyone justify them being a true title contender?  I do think this team will go far, but my confidence level of them going all the way would have to be seriously low.  They don't have any more games to impress anyone so, for them, it will all come down to the tourney.

Florida
The Gators are the poster boys for the phrase "there's no place like home."  They absolutely destroy teams at home.  They crushed Wisconsin by 18, obliterated Marquette by 33, and welcomed Missouri to the SEC by blasting them by 31.  That's the good.  The bad is when they move away from home.  That same Missouri team they had destroyed got their revenge, 63-60.  Yesterday they lost at an un-ranked Tennessee team.  They've also lost at Arizona, at Arkansas, and against Kansas State on a neutral floor.  They have a very high energy style of play that can be lethal when executed correctly.  The consistency just isn't there as evidenced by their two game series against Missouri this year.  They should still be able to win the SEC, but with Kentucky having a down year, they should have dominated the conference.  Instead, the Wildcats and even Alabama, could sneak in and nab the regular season title.  This seems like a boom or bust type team in the tournament.  I could see either an Elite Eight for this team or, as long as they're not a 1 or 2 seed, a possible first round exit.

Miami
Someone not named Duke or North Carolina is now relevant in the ACC!  The Hurricanes proved their mettle early in the season by beating Michigan State in the ACC/Big 10 challenge.  They also announced their presence in a big way by beating the Blue Devils in Miami, 90-63.  They've also managed to eke out a win at North Carolina State.  Unfortunately, their resume also contains some horrible losses.  The second game of the season they lost to Florida Gulf Coast from the Atlantic Sun Conference.  A forgivable loss to Arizona was followed by a puzzling one to Indiana State.  Add in the Wake Forest loss last week and you have a very polarizing schedule.  Who is this team?  I think all will be answered on Saturday when they travel to Duke.  I'm sure the team and the Cameron Crazies remember that loss earlier in the year.  Their success has come a bit too fast which is why I think they faltered against a beatable Wake Forest team.  I still don't think they get the respect they deserve and will definitely make a name for themselves in the tournament.  Title hopes though?  Not this year.

Michigan
Led by arguably the best back court in the country with Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr., the Wolverines started out hot en route to a 16-0 record.  Similar to Indiana, once Big 10 play hit, they started to struggle.  They now have five losses on their record, but only one of them, tonight at Penn State, could be considered a bad loss.  I actually think that out of all the teams discussed here, they have the best chance of winning it all, they just need the right draw.  They were beat soundly by Michigan State and comfortably by Indiana.  They've lost to Ohio State and were taken to overtime in their second meeting before pulling out a win.  I think they could struggle against a team that likes to slow the game down a la Wisconsin, where they lost 65-62 in OT.  This team does have all the parts to go all the way, but they are far from a sure thing.

Kansas
Rock Chalk Jayhawk are the last of the talked about title contenders.  A season that started so well has since seen a 3 game losing streak and caused Bill Self to call his team the worst to ever be on the floor representing the Jayhawks.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a title contender.  Their three losses were all to un-ranked teams at the time, at home to Oklahoma State, at TCU, and at Oklahoma.  They've turned it around since then with wins over Kansas State and payback for the OSU game by beating the Cowboys in double overtime.  Still, this is not your classic, dominant, Bill Self Kansas team.  Given their recent tournament struggles, however, maybe that's a good thing.  Last year aside, they had lost to #11 VCU in 2011, and #9 Northern Iowa in 2010.  Maybe that three game losing streak was a turning point for this team.  There still has to be a high level of concern, however, given those three losses to those types of teams.  All it takes is one loss in the tournament to some team from the Horizon League and your season is over.  Nothing accomplished.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on these teams.  Perhaps having witnessed the juggernaut that was the Kentucky Wildcat's 2012 basketball team, my standards have become too high.  Having said that, would you put money on any of the above teams?  Including the teams mentioned above, there are also teams like Georgetown, Louisville, and Arizona that could have something to say before it's all said and done.  The tournament gets so much thrill because of the one and done system.  Anyone can fall at anytime.  This field seems like the most wide open in recent memory.  Could we have no number one seeds in the Final Four again?  Could we see two more 15 over 2 upsets like last year?  Could we have our first 16 over 1 upset?  I guess we'll find out in a couple weeks.  March Madness baby!

Matty O

Monday, February 25, 2013

The Man, The Myth, The Legend

Never before has a player been so loved for doing so little.  Never before has a player had a gold mine of Youtube videos that do nothing but elicit laughter and smiles.  Never before has a player gotten his name chanted throughout the arena when the game was out of hand.  There is only one player who can accomplish this feat, and his name is The White Mamba aka Brian Scalabrine.

Beloved league wide, Scalabrine looks like he should be a store manager at a Home Depot, not balling on an NBA basketball court.  His popularity is puzzling, however, due to his questionable decision making on the court and less than impressive career stats.  For his career, he's averaged 3.1 points per game, 13 minutes per game, and 2 rebounds per game (he's a 6'9" power forward).  99% of the people that just read that line are probably thinking to themselves, "I could do that."  And yeah, you probably could.  But could you get over 154,000 views on Youtube for a video that simply shows you sitting down?  Probably not.  That was literally an 18 second clip of Scal telling Kyle Korver to move so he can sit down.  18 seconds, 154,000 views, 301 likes, 6 dislikes.  Comments feature things ranging from "When the team MVP tells you to move, you move," to "Korver is lucky to still be alive."  To go along with these random shenanigans, The White Mamba actually has gotten some accomplishments and accolades during his career.

In Scal's first year with his college team, USC, he actually led them in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage!  He was All-Pac 10 first team in 2000 and led the Trojans to the elite 8 in 2001.  He actually got drafted in the second round by the New Jersey Nets.  Since then, he has played for the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls.  He won a NBA Championship with the Celtics in 2008, which is probably what Kevin Garnett was referring to when he yelled out, "Anything is possible!"  Scal now has more rings than Charles Barkley and Patrick Ewing, and is tied in a dead heat with Lebron James.  Despite his less than impressive numbers, Scal is still better than your average scrub.  He proved that with The Scallenge, where he took on people that thought they could beat him 1 on 1.  He trounced the competition, proving that even the scrubs on pro teams just clown on us civilians.  If you ever see him ballin in the gym, it's probably best to not challenge him.

The thing that has always puzzled me about Scal is that he has terrible stats and does hilarious things on the basketball court, yet he gets thunderous applause when he comes into the game.  Bring your earplugs if he makes a shot.  I've seen a couple Bulls games where the cheering for a Scalabrine easy lay up during a blow out, is louder than a Derrick Rose twisting, spinning lay up when the game is close.  Most players that are scrubs people either hate or simply don't care enough about.  Look at a guy like Adam Morrison.

Morrison was a beast in college at Gonzaga and was selected 3rd overall by the Charlotte Bobcats.  He only lasted 4 years in the league, but was fortunate enough to be riding the pine for two of the Lakers' Championships.  His career numbers are slightly better with a 7.5 PPG average even though he got more minutes than Scal (20.4 MPG).  He also looked like he belonged nowhere near an NBA court with his floppy hair and ridiculous mustache.  So fans cheered for him right?  Wrong.  He didn't get cheered when he came in or get MVP chants on the road.  People reading this might not even remember who Morrison is/was.  He never had a cool nickname or hundreds of awesome videos on Youtube.  No, Morrison was your typical NBA scrub that will hopefully be forgotten in due time or as a cautionary tale to NBA executives when it comes to drafting.  Scal seems to defy the typical scrub NBA lifestyle.

With one NBA title, millions of fans, and his share of bloopers, Scal finally decided to call it quits this past season.  He's now doing broadcasting, covering his old team, the Celtics.  As awesome as it would be for him to come out of retirement (a la Air Jordan), I doubt it will happen.  It was fun while it lasted as Scal will probably be remembered by Bulls, Celtics, and NBA fans everywhere for quite some time.  Here's to you Brian Scalabrine, or as Stacey King would say, "The man, the myth, the legend, The White Mamba!"

Matty O

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Ba-Dunk-A-Dunk

No more capes.  No more high hoops.  No more KIAs.  No more foolishness.  Finally, for the first time in years, the slam dunk champion went back to basics.  Terrence Ross, the winner of the 2013 Slam Dunk Contest, threw down some serious dunks Saturday night, including a tribute to, in my opinion, the greatest dunker of all time, Vince Carter.  One jersey change was the only gimmick he needed to win the contest despite other contestants dunking two balls, trying to jump from the free throw line (a la Air Jordan and Dr. J), and trying to dunk twice before landing. 

This is what the dunk contest needs to go back to.  Pure, powerful dunks of art.  For instance, when Jeremy Evans dunked two balls at once, I really wasn't that impressed.  I'm not saying it wasn't impressive but as far as a slam dunk contest dunk is concerned, it really wasn't that great and thankfully the judges only gave it a 43.  When Ross pulled off his dunk wearing a Vince Carter jersey (caught from a pass off the side of the backboard, 360 spin, brought down below the waist, then hammered home), I nearly jumped out of my seat, seriously.  That's what amazing dunks should do.  They're meant to be crowd movers, jaw droppers, and legend makers.  Even though Carter never lived up to the Jordan-esque hype that was attached to him when he came into the league, many still consider Carter the better, and perhaps best ever, dunker.  This was established at the 2000 Slam Dunk Contest, which was the best performance in a dunk contest I have ever seen.

Wait, seriously, if you didn't click that link, watch that video.  Did you see the reaction of the other NBA stars?  Did you see the reaction of the judges and crowd?  People were in awe of what they were seeing.  Maybe Houston just wasn't the place to be last night, but the crowd was not nearly as hyped, I felt, as at the 2000 one.  We've seen people throw down some of the dunks that Carter did, but not with the ferocity, which is what made them awesome.  Despite Ross' tribute to the old school, there were still a few things I disliked about the dunk contest that need to change.

1 Attempt, 2 Attempt, 3 Attempt, 4
Vince and MJ could throw down their dunks on the first or second try.  Every time.  They did it with authority and didn't waste my time trying 4 or 5 times.  Ross' first dunk, where he did a behind the back with the ball dunk was impressive and worthy of a 50 on its own.  The problem is he took way too many attempts to do it.  By the time it was pulled off, the hype had worn off a bit as everyone knew what he was going to do.  I think the awe factor is at its highest when you dunk it for the first time because no one knows what they're about to see.  By the third attempt I knew exactly what he was going to do.  His other two Eastern Conference teammates weren't even able to pull off their dunks in the allotted one minute thirty second time frame.  Really, a minute thirty to do a dunk?  C'mon man.  Practice more, do what you have to do, but start nailing the dunk on the first or second try.  I realize the degree of difficulty is there, but it is much more powerful on the first try.

Give Me The Best
The format for the dunk contest was East vs West with the top score in the East facing off against the top score in the West.  I would like to see the dunk contest go back to choosing the best score regardless of conference affiliation, similar to the Home Run Derby.  What if one conference is stacked with dunkers, but because of the format, two of them won't get in.  Even though he's past his slam dunk contest prime, it would be possible for the Western Conference to have a Slam Dunk Contest line up of  Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, and Blake Griffin, all former winners of the contest.  It's also very possible that the three of them outscore the players on the Eastern Conference side.  I, as a fan, would much rather see the three or two best out of Griffin, Howard, and Bryant advance rather than simply giving each conference an equal share of the pie.  I understand they're trying to do an East vs West thing this year, but for the dunk contest, I want the best of the best.

Calling King James
I am quite outspoken in my dislike for Lebron James, but this is one scenario where I would probably cheer for him.  The dunks he throws down in games are powerful enough.  Can you imagine what he'll do with no defenders and time to prepare?  I think if he participated, it would be something special.  There's a good chance his performance would surpass Carter's 2000 performance.  They were debating this on First Take, but I think both Stephen A and Skip were missing the point.  Stephen A pretty much took the stance of, it's his choice and if he doesn't want to do it he doesn't owe it to anyone.  Skip argued that James is actually scared of the contest and won't do it because of the pressure that will be on him from the fans and the media.

My personal opinion is that James should not do it for the fans, media, or anyone but himself.  As much as I would like to see him in this contest, I don't believe he owes it to the fans to participate.  Who cares?  As this year proved, there are some pretty great dunkers out there already, and I'm still holding out hope that he does it a couple years down the road.  This would, however, be a legacy builder.  The debate since James came into the league has been him vs Kobe vs Jordan.  Even though James doesn't believe you can measure greatness in championships and stats, the numbers rarely lie.  Jordan has six rings, Kobe has five, Lebron, even though he still has a lot of career left, has one.  I also feel like Lebron, despite winning that title last year, still does not have near the kind of respect Jordan and Kobe demand. 

As far as the dunk contest is concerned, Kobe has only been in it once but won it, and Jordan has won it two out of the three times he has participated.  I know the title of slam dunk champion isn't as prestigious as NBA Champion, but it's just another piece of the greatness pie that Lebron doesn't have.  You want to erase some of the animosity that is still there from when you left Cleveland for the Heat?  Participate.  This is a fan friendly and now, with Twitter and txt message voting, interactive competition.  If James does some ridiculous, never before seen dunk, which I believe he is capable of, I think some wounds will be healed.  I don't care how much you hate a player, if you see him or her do something amazing, sometimes you just have to sit back and say, "Damn, that was pretty sweet."  It's not going to make him Mr. Loveable and he still won't get cheers on the road like Scalabrine did, but I think if he participates and does what we all know he can do, it will be a small boost, but a boost nonetheless, to his growing NBA legacy.

In conclusion, I like where the dunk contest is heading after last night.  Apart from missing big names and some lackluster dunk attempts it was a pretty solid contest.  Maybe you enjoy the gimmicks and believe in their level of difficulty.  I mean, I'm 5'9" so I can't say from personal experience how hard it is to perform certain dunks (lower that hoop a few notches, then we'll talk).  What I can say is my definition of an awesome dunk is no props, just skill and athleticism.  I'm looking at you LBJ.  New Orleans already has the spot for next year's All Star Game, but I want to petition for the 2015 Slam Dunk Contest to be in Cleveland.  LBJ back in his hometown, throwing down in front of his old fans.  That would be legen....wait for it

Matty O

Click here for a slow-mo look at all of Ross' dunks from last night



...dary.

Saturday, February 16, 2013

1 Year Anniversary

Believe it or not, this blog has been up for a year now.  WHOOOO!  For those that don't know, this actually started as a blog to chronicle a Super Bowl bet I had going with one of my fraternity brothers.  Since then, it has turned into opinionated articles on various topics in sports.  I've covered everything from Jeremy Lin to the UFC to realigning conferences.  I've learned better ways to write as well as interesting things about sports I didn't even know while researching for these blog posts. 

Some people like to read, I like to write.  My grammar and word vocabulary may not be on par with English majors, but if I can present my information in an engaging way, then I think I've done my job.  The great part about my own blog is I am free to write about what I want, and express my opinions how I want.  With that being said, would anyone want to see more or less of something?  More boxing/UFC?  More baseball and steroids?  More broomball (let's play rather than write about it)?  I try to keep a variety of sports going so one demographic isn't left out.  I also shy away from the really sensitive things like the Manti Te'o incident and the scandal at Penn State.  Apart from that, I'm open to anything if you're so inclined.  If not, I'll just keep em coming.

Last but not least, I want to say thank you to everyone that has been reading these.  It doesn't matter if this is your first one you've read or your 31st, I am appreciative.  Once I get flowing, the writing goes by pretty quick, but information gathering can be tedious.  I've had an idea about what I've wanted to write before, only to find evidence online that refutes my opinion, which usually results in a scrapped blog post.  I've seen my number of page views steadily increase and have found extra support for posts about Chicago teams (Bulls one probably coming soon).  So once again, thank you for your time to read these, spread the word, and here's to year 2 of Matty O's blog.

Matty O

Monday, February 11, 2013

2013 Eagles: Greatest Offense of All Time?

Embarrassing.  Slow.  Funny.  Injuries.  Confused.  Fumble.  Interception.  Sack.  Nick Foles.  These are all words that were related to the Philadelphia Eagles' offense last year.  A potential playoff/Super Bowl team after a disappointing 2011-12 campaign, they continued their decline in 2012-13 by going 4-12 despite having talent across the board on their team.

DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, Nnamdi Asomugha, DeMeco Ryans.  These are not scrub players by any stretch of the imagination and yet they finished last in their division, and were front runners for the most disappointing team of the year award.  Despite these concerns, I believe that their offense next year could be historic.  There's a good chance I'll look like a fool on this prediction given how the past two seasons have gone, but there are positive signs to consider.

Quack Attack
The first of these signs is new head coach Chip Kelly.  Kelly was an offensive genius at Oregon, as his teams ranked in the top 10 in offense every year he was there except for 2009 (he was offensive coordinator from 2007-2008, head coach from 2009-2012).  Last year, he turned an unproven freshman quarterback into an offensive machine as Marcus Mariota threw for 2677 yards, ran for 752 yards, and accumulated 37 total TDs.  He was able to utilize De'Anthony Thomas, one of the most dynamic players in college football, very effectively as he got the ball to him in space and let him blow by everyone.  His offense was highly up tempo with no huddle being the norm.  He used option reads, trickery, and play action as the main ways he would attack a defense.  This style led him to three Pac 10/12 titles, the 2010 Coach of the Year award, and a BCS bowl game every year he was a head coach.  There is some debate about whether or not his college style will translate to the NFL game as evidenced by these coaches, but I think Kelly will find better success for a few reasons.

See:  49ers, Panthers, Tim Tebow, Washington Redskins
Like it or not, this gimmicky, college football style read option offense has hit the NFL.  And it has hit the NFL running.  The 49ers were able to get all the way to the Super Bowl with it, and came darn close to winning it.  While Kelly's system will differ a bit from the 49ers, which will differ from the Panthers, etc., it's essentially the same idea.  The concept is to create mismatches, force defenses to make quick decisions, then use speed to exploit their mistake.  I look at a guy like Robert Griffin III and can just imagine him playing for Oregon in a Kelly system.  Yikes! 

These offenses have proven that this system can be effective.  Since Kelly was hired so quickly, he will have time to evaluate the current Eagles roster as well as the incoming draft class, and find the best fit for his system.  I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to take some of his Ducks with him.  In fact, one of his former Ducks, LaMichael James, was on the 49ers squad this year and excelled at times this year due to the familiarity with the system.  This read option stuff is here to stay football fans, and Kelly plans to reinforce the message.

Michael Vick
Vick is the linchpin in this whole prediction.  If he gets injured or continues to play poorly, then this offense and team will fail.  They will finish at the bottom of the NFC East again and Kelly will be under pressure after only one year of NFL coaching.  Injuries are part of the game, and there is really no way to predict them.  Yes, Vick has recently made injuries a habit, but I think that was more so due to what he was asked to do.  I watched a few Eagles games this year and I noticed that many of the big shots he was taking were coming from being in the pocket, looking to pass.  That is not Vick's game. 

Consider that in 2004, arguably his best season in Atlanta, Vick played 15 games and threw the ball 321 times.  In 2012, despite playing 5 games less than in 2004, Vick threw more times with 351 pass attempts.  I understand that Vick is older now and may have lost a step when it comes to running, but no one would ever mistake him for being a prolific passer.  They may have needed to throw late in games because they were losing, but at 35 pass attempts per game, it sounds like Andy Reid simply abandoned the run game and asked Vick to throw them to victory.  Not going to happen.  Despite his age, I think that Kelly can unleash the beast that was Vick.  Remember the "No Using Vick" rule in Madden?  Kelly could make that relevant again.  He's no RG3 or Cam Newton, but I guarantee there's still some speed and amazing plays left in those legs.  Kelly simply has to tap into that and turn him loose.

Remember When...We Were Good?
The final thing Kelly has going for him is that this offense, I believe, is actually stacked with talent.  Some coaches inherit truly bad teams with players who just can't perform, but this Eagles team is different.  They have simply under performed due to the coach, circumstance, you name it.  In a vacuum, if you gave me Vick, Maclin, Jackson, and McCoy on offense, I'd say you have a real good chance to put up numbers.  Despite their poor record, they finished middle of the pack in both rushing yards per game (13th) and passing yards per game (13th).  Once McCoy got injured, Bryce Brown filled in admirably for him, although hanging onto the ball became an issue.  With all these weapons at his disposal, I believe Kelly can transform this team into something special.

Vick is now his Mariota, Dennis Dixon, or Darron Thomas.  A guy with an average arm, but legs that can kill a defense.  Vick seems eager to learn, even under Reid, so this new system will challenge him, but it will be for the better.  McCoy is a special player regardless of system, but will absolutely love this read option style attack.  He has great quickness and can read the defense very well; two keys in this type of attack.  Kelly will find a multitude of ways to get Jackson involved and into space, allowing him to use that great speed of his.  I've always thought Jackson was a sub par "pure" receiver, but his play making ability has never been doubted.  Maclin, although not as fast as Jackson, is a better route runner and has better hands.  He will be relied upon to get into the open spaces and give Vick a reliable target to throw to.  This team has more offensive studs than the majority of teams in the NFL.  All it takes is a little execution and these Eagles should be flying.

The potential for this offense is amazing.  It's going to be different from a historical perspective because the kind of system I believe Kelly will put in place is predicated on the run.  The two greatest offenses I've ever seen, the Rams Greatest Show on Turf and the 2007 New England Patriots, were all about throwing the ball around and lighting up the scoreboard.  While they may not put up the video game numbers that those two offenses did, they will be leaving defenses asking the same question they did of those two teams, "How do we stop them?"  Kelly and Eagles fans nationwide are hoping the answer is, "You can't."

Matty O

Monday, February 4, 2013

What Is An Elite QB?

How does one classify a quarterback as elite?  Is the classification based on post season success or juicy stat lines?  If it is determined by post season success, then players like Peyton Manning and Dan Marino should not be considered elite.  Manning is tied with Brett Favre with the most losses by a quarterback in the playoffs (11).  Eight times, whether it was the first round or second because his team had a bye, he lost the first playoff game he played.  He did make the Super Bowl twice, but was beaten by the Saints in 2010 and beat a Rex Grossman-led Bears team.  Not the most impressive of all playoff stat lines. 

Marino, widely considered one of the greatest QBs of all time, went 8-10 in the playoffs.  He did better than Manning in opening playoff games, losing only three of them, but reached the Super Bowl only once.  His Dolphins were hammered by Joe Montana's 49ers 38-16.  The problem with examining post season success is that it leaves out greats like these players above and includes players such as Trent Dilfer, Jake Delhomme, and *gulp* Mark Sanchez. 

Obviously the amount of playoff games the three have played have not been many, but their post season success numbers don't lie.  All three have better winning percentages than Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young, and Drew Brees in the playoffs.  Dilfer and Delhomme have actually played in as many Super Bowls as Marino did, with Dilfer winning the one he was in.  It's easy to hate on Sanchez nowadays, but in his first two years he seemed destined to bring New York a title.  He led the Jets to the AFC title game in his first two years, even though none of the games were played at home.  He has won in San Diego, Indianapolis, and New England along the way.  Certainly the talented Jets defense bailed him out a couple games against San Diego his rookie year and against Indy his second year, but his performance the other games were phenomenal.  In his other four playoff games, he had a rating of 93.3 or above with eight TDs and one INT.  Great post season success, inconsistent regular season play, and on a team where the defense gets the spotlight.  Sounds an awful lot like the description for Joe Flacco.  Going simply on post season success, how can you not say he's elite?

Flacco is now 9-4 in the post season.  Like Sanchez, he had early success, but the success was attributed to the defense rather than Flacco.  Also like Sanchez, his regular season stats leave much to be desired.  His career rating in the regular season is 86.3 with a 1.82 : 1 TD to INT ratio.  By comparison, Peyton Manning, the guy we just said was not elite due to lack of post season success, has a 95.7 rating with a 2.09 : 1 TD to INT ratio.  Flacco has also always been blessed with defensive standouts such as Raw Lewis and Ed  Reed, while Sanchez had Darrelle Revis and Bart Scott.  The difference between the two?  Flacco has now led a team to the Super Bowl and won it.  So, he's elite right?  Well, maybe not quite.

On the opposite end of the quarterback judging spectrum is the belief that stats don't lie and the juicy numbers are what constitutes an elite QB.  Guys like Montana and Brady fall into both categories, but it opens the door for players like Manning, Marino, and even the Tony Romo's of the world to claim elite status.  Since 2006, Romo has been in the top 10 for passer rating every single year except in 2010 when he had a season ending injury after the sixth game that year.  He also finished third in passing yards in 2006, 2009, and 2012.  He managed to finish seventh in 2011 when quarterbacks were setting ridiculous passing records.  He has led his team to the playoffs three times in a highly competitive division.  So why is he not considered elite league wide?  There's got to be something more to it than just stats.  If so, there would be a number of quarterbacks that could call themselves elite, although they would not deserve that title.

My definition of elite, although it sounds kind of corny, is trust.  Who can I trust with my franchise?  Who can I trust to win me that game or throw that perfect pass?  This is why guys like Romo and Phillip Rivers cannot be considered elite.  Being a Cowboys fan and having Rivers on my fantasy team, I found myself holding my breath whenever they dropped back to throw rather than begging for the coordinators to call more passing plays.  Flacco wants Drew Brees-type money, but the people signing the checks have to ask if they can trust Flacco to produce like that.  Will the Ravens, six or seven years from now say, "Thank God we gave Flacco that money.  I think I'll wear the 2013 ring today and leave the 2014 and 2016 ones in the dresser."  Honestly, I don't see it happening.

His post season run was great, but should he be considered Drew Brees great?  Although Brees' post season record has not been as good as Flacco's (5-4), he has won a Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP.  He holds the record for most passing yards in a season (5476) and the most consecutive games with a passing TD (54).  Joe Flacco is...good at growing facial hair?  The contract he is asking for assumes he and Brees are on the same level.  So I ask you football fans, especially Baltimore ones, if the Saints offered you Drew Brees straight up for Joe Flacco, would you take it?  If you said no, you are either a member of the Flacco household or you seriously need to get your head examined.  The job that Brees did this year might be even more impressive than Flacco's odyssey to the Super Bowl.

Despite the controversy surrounding the bounty scandal, no head coach, and playing with a defense that was last in the league in yards allowed (by nearly 1000 yards I might add), Brees still managed to get the Saints to a respectable 7-9, and finished tied for second in the division.  He still finished in the top 8 in passer rating and was first in yards and TDs.  Sure he had weapons with Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, but so did Flacco with Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, and Torrey Smith.  Yet Brees out played him in every way this season, despite being on a lesser team.  Some might say his stats are inflated because they were always down and they had to throw it.  Consider that Matthew Stafford had more attempts than Brees, yet finished 22nd in passer rating with less than half as many TDs.  In the same situation, could Flacco do that?  I'll leave that call up to you, but I think people that know football would answer that question with a resounding "No."

Perhaps yesterday was when Flacco turned from good quarterback to elite.  Maybe next season he goes throw for throw with Brees and Rodgers.  Maybe he leads the Ravens to back to back titles.  All I know is, he's got to show me something more before I can classify him as elite.  I think people are being prisoners of the moment when putting him up there with the greats.  You can come back to this article in November or December and bash me if he plays well, but I think the Ravens will overpay him.  As it stands though, Ray Lewis is retired.  Ed Reed and that defense aren't getting any younger.  Baltimore has now become an offensive town.  Flacco, time to show me, the experts, and the fans that you are, indeed, elite.

My list of elite QBs (active):  Brady, Brees, Rodgers, both Mannings, Big Ben

Matty O

Friday, February 1, 2013

Burden Of Responsibility

4th quarter.  Tie game.  Time running out.  A 50 yard bomb gets flung down the field to a streaking receiver.  He's there.  He leaps.  The ball touches his fingertips.  Then...BANG!  The safety comes across and lays out the receiver.  The fans go wild, sidelines erupt, and the pass is incomplete.  On the field lie two players, motionless, with the future of their health and playing career hanging in the balance.

This happens numerous times throughout the football season, in college, pros, and at the high school/youth levels.  With the new studies developing regarding brain damage while playing high impact sports, controversy has arisen.  The death of former NFL linebacker Junior Seau brought the issue to the forefront as he was found to have significant brain damage due to chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE).  This was one of the reasons for Seau's suicide in May of last year.  Symptoms of CTE include dementia, aggression, confusion, and depression.  Even President Obama  has voiced his concern over the matter.  There is a growing fear amongst current and former players about what will happen to their minds as they get older.  The two sides to this argument are the burden of responsibility on the player and the burden of responsibility on the league.

You Signed Up For This, Deal With The Consequences
Those who believe the burden of responsibility falls on the player make the case that players signed up for this.  Making a big hit as a defender or being willing to run dangerous routes as a wide receiver might help your team win, which in turn, helps you as an individual in terms of prestige and probably financially as well.  But, no one is forcing you to play.  There are millions of other careers out there, the majority of which have a significantly lower chance of concussions.  As a player, you are aware that this is a violent game and should not be surprised when violent collisions happen.  You are the one that is in control of your body, so in the end, it is your choice to lead with your helmet, shoulder, leg, you name it.  This choice can be seen in other sports as well such as blocking a shot in hockey.

There are numerous ways to try and block a puck shot 80 MPH+ at you.  Heck, you don't even have to block a puck.  That's what you pay goalies for.  Yet, you still see guys leave their skates, slide to the ice, in hopes of taking away a low, on the ice shot, leaving their head vulnerable.  No one is forcing you to do that, so accept the results.  This view asks if your child wants to play sports, why not golf or baseball?  According to Forbes' list of top paid athletes in 2012, the majority of the top 10 athletes were in sports with a much lower risk of concussion.  Tiger Woods, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Roger Federer, and Phil Mickelson were all ahead of the only NFL player in the top 10, Peyton Manning.  Who wants to get paid less to do something more dangerous?

Protect Our Players
Those who believe the burden of responsibility falls on the league make the case that the rules and policies of the league should protect the players.  Obama makes the point in his interview that even though they might take away from some of the excitement of the game, rules to protect players should be put in place.  Ravens safety Bernard Pollard goes so far as to say that football won't be in existence in 30 years because the league will have so many safety rules that no one will want to watch.  These people support players who try and sue the NFL once their careers are over because of the damage that was done to their bodies, particularly their head, which has caused them mental and physical problems now that they are retired.

In contrast to the people that believe the burden falls on the players, these people recognize football as a way to "make it" in this world.  Yes there are other careers out there, but football is a great means to make money, even if it might not be as much as other sports.  Although it certainly varies from city to city, the argument could be made that football is the most recognized and prestigious sport.  In terms of TV ratings  football absolutely crushes the competition.  The top 14 spots were all football related, obliterating marquee events in other sports such as the Final Four, all of the Heat/Thunder games in the NBA Finals, and the Masters.  So while football may not garner you as much in terms of pay, the popularity of it should give you press, prestige, and sponsorships.  The league should be protecting its respective players, which should bring in more money for the league as a whole.  If your superstars are healthy, more people will watch and come to the games.

Discussion
Above was a brief discussion of the two sides, but I have to lean a bit towards the burden on the players.  This sort of relates to my view on steroids in that I do not have a problem with players taking them.  Should they test for them?  I suppose, if they want.  But players know the risks and if they don't, then it's their fault they wind up with roid rage or an enlarged heart.  It should be on the players to do a cost-benefit analysis of personal safety and health vs possible increased success and financial payout.  It sounds kind of harsh, but with the wealth of knowledge about concussions that people have access to nowadays, then players should know what they are getting into.

The problem with asking the league to do something about it, is that many of their actions are in reaction to an event.  For instance, Roger Goodell has cracked down on player safety, but only after players like James Harrison went on hitting rampages that left people out cold.  Colt McCoy suffered a concussion after one of Harrison's hits and has never been the same since.  You could certainly argue that he did not have to skill set to be a star NFL QB, but that hit certainly did not help.  The actions of the league might help other people down the road, but McCoy still has a concussion on his record and perhaps may develop mental problems down the road.

There is also no guarantee that league measures will work.  One of the main complaints from defensive players that I agree with is that the offensive player's head position moves throughout the play and will vary from play to play.  A defensive player might be in a safe position to make a tackle, but due to the way the offensive player falls, jukes, or spins, it causes a head to head collision.  Players down, flags thrown, fines dished out.  Short of making the NFL flag football, I don't think violent collisions can be taken out of the game.  I feel sympathetic for these players because apart from Ndamukong Suh, I don't believe these players want to seriously injure other players.  They are simply looking for the most effective way to separate the ball from the man.  There is no rule, I believe, that the NFL can come up with that will take away violent collisions due to the randomness of them.

I also agree with the burden on the player people when they make the argument that no one is forcing you to play football.  Is football prestigious and a way to make a good living?  Yes, there's no arguing that.  I'm not even saying you should pick a career other than sports.  What I'm arguing is that two sports, soccer and basketball, offer comparable, if not better pay, safer conditions, and a more reasonable sport for lower class people.  Soccer and basketball are by no means soft, so don't think there is zero risk, but the frequency of contact is not nearly as high as in football.  For people who argue that football is a way to make it for lower income people, I would argue that basketball and soccer are even easier, lower cost ways to "make it."  Neither of those sports involve pads (save for shin guards in soccer), both can be played with small numbers of people, and both have skills that translate over from football.

For the upcoming generation, given the press that concussions have gotten, the real burden of responsibility will be on the parents.  Apart from some rare cases, a sport you play growing up will probably be the sport you choose as a profession if you wish to be a professional athlete.  I think equipping parents with knowledge is key so they can decide if football is right for their child or not and if they are comfortable with the risks involved.  Bring other sports to the forefront so they know the options that are there.

I'm not trying to say that no one should play football.  Troy Aikman, star quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, suffered numerous concussions in his playing days, ultimately causing him to retire.  He is now a color commentator with Fox and does numerous NFL games throughout the season.  He is three years older (46) than Seau (43) was when he passed away, and is showing no signs of depression or dementia.  All I am trying to say is don't get mad at the league, rules, or others when mental problems arise.  You can call some concussions freak accidents all you want, but in the end, you put yourself in an area of high risk.  If you are reading this and choose to play football, I wish nothing but the best for you.  Hopefully you go through your career concussion and injury free.  Just be aware of what could happen and factor that in before signing up to be a free safety.

It is your life, your body, and your mind.  Responsibility should be yours, and yours alone.

Matty O