In the midst of another crazy week of college basketball, one must beg the question, who is the true favorite to win the National Championship? Obviously, anyone can be beat in the tournament and there's no guarantee of a one seed even reaching the Final Four (see 2011). Every year, however, one team usually distinguishes itself from the pack where the majority of experts can agree that this is the team to beat.
A great example would be Kentucky last year. An absolutely dominant team that wound up winning the title. Their only two losses were a stunner in the SEC tournament and against Indiana in Bloomington in one of the most hostile crowds I've ever seen at a basketball game. You could even look at the Ohio State and Kansas teams from the 2011 year where no one seed made the Final Four. They didn't win it, but they had certainly separated themselves from everyone else that year. Kansas had the Morris twins, Markieff and Marcus, who led them to a 32-2 record and the Big 12 regular season and tournament championship. Ohio State, meanwhile, was beating up the Big 10 with Jared Sullinger on their way to a 32-2 record and the Big 10 regular season and tournament championship. These teams were dominant, with the consensus being that one of them had a good shot to win the National Championship. This year, however, the true contender remains a mystery. Here's a breakdown of just some of the many top contenders vying for that title.
Indiana
Indiana would have to be considered the "favorite" at this point. When they're on, I will admit that they are the most dangerous team in the country. They also have potential Player Of The Year Victor Oladipo and big man Tyler Zeller, both first round picks in the upcoming NBA draft. They play at one of the best home court advantages in the country in Assembly Hall. Despite this, do you really get a sense of dominance with this team? Could they hang with Kentucky 2012 or Kansas 2011? I think not. It's a lofty comparison, but that's what true title contenders should be; head and shoulders above everyone else. This team has already lost 4 times (vs Butler on a neutral floor, vs Wisconsin, at Illinois, and at Minnesota) while surviving a few scares along the way. The Big 10 is brutal for anyone this year and their wins at Michigan State and at Ohio State are worthy of praise. Still, this team's chances of winning the title are about the same as them losing in the second round to an 8 or 9 seed.
Duke
Coach K and Duke only have 3 losses on the year (at NC State, at Miami, and at Maryland) in a relatively weak ACC this year. Their wins over Ohio State and Louisville early in the year were impressive, but they have not beaten any opponents that are currently ranked as of this writing. They have been strong at home, but last time I checked, there will be zero tournament games in Cameron Indoor Stadium. They're a very small team, which will cost them come tournament time. I think any team with a dominant big man can take out this Duke team and the Big Ten and Big East has that in spades. If or rather when, the Devils run into a team like that, they will struggle and probably lose. Their loss to Maryland was a great example. Alex Len, a 7'1" center for Maryland, was the player of the game when they knocked off Duke as he accounted for 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Duke's tallest starter, Mason Plumlee, is only 6'10" and a small one at that. I think Duke is going to go out early this year due to their lack of size and competition during the season.
Gonzaga
The Zags are an interesting case because they do not play in a power conference. It's easy to look at their schedule and claim they are an easy pick for a National Championship. They currently sit 27-2 with their only losses being to Illinois and at Butler. Not the best of all losses, but understandable. Their problem is that their schedule is cupcake city. They play the likes of Portland, San Francisco, and Pepperdine. Compare that to Indiana who had an eight day period where they played against Michigan, at Illinois, and at Ohio State. When Gonzaga wins, no one is really impressed. It's hard to judge them and teams like Butler based on what they do during the regular season. Having said that, how can anyone justify them being a true title contender? I do think this team will go far, but my confidence level of them going all the way would have to be seriously low. They don't have any more games to impress anyone so, for them, it will all come down to the tourney.
Florida
The Gators are the poster boys for the phrase "there's no place like home." They absolutely destroy teams at home. They crushed Wisconsin by 18, obliterated Marquette by 33, and welcomed Missouri to the SEC by blasting them by 31. That's the good. The bad is when they move away from home. That same Missouri team they had destroyed got their revenge, 63-60. Yesterday they lost at an un-ranked Tennessee team. They've also lost at Arizona, at Arkansas, and against Kansas State on a neutral floor. They have a very high energy style of play that can be lethal when executed correctly. The consistency just isn't there as evidenced by their two game series against Missouri this year. They should still be able to win the SEC, but with Kentucky having a down year, they should have dominated the conference. Instead, the Wildcats and even Alabama, could sneak in and nab the regular season title. This seems like a boom or bust type team in the tournament. I could see either an Elite Eight for this team or, as long as they're not a 1 or 2 seed, a possible first round exit.
Miami
Someone not named Duke or North Carolina is now relevant in the ACC! The Hurricanes proved their mettle early in the season by beating Michigan State in the ACC/Big 10 challenge. They also announced their presence in a big way by beating the Blue Devils in Miami, 90-63. They've also managed to eke out a win at North Carolina State. Unfortunately, their resume also contains some horrible losses. The second game of the season they lost to Florida Gulf Coast from the Atlantic Sun Conference. A forgivable loss to Arizona was followed by a puzzling one to Indiana State. Add in the Wake Forest loss last week and you have a very polarizing schedule. Who is this team? I think all will be answered on Saturday when they travel to Duke. I'm sure the team and the Cameron Crazies remember that loss earlier in the year. Their success has come a bit too fast which is why I think they faltered against a beatable Wake Forest team. I still don't think they get the respect they deserve and will definitely make a name for themselves in the tournament. Title hopes though? Not this year.
Michigan
Led by arguably the best back court in the country with Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr., the Wolverines started out hot en route to a 16-0 record. Similar to Indiana, once Big 10 play hit, they started to struggle. They now have five losses on their record, but only one of them, tonight at Penn State, could be considered a bad loss. I actually think that out of all the teams discussed here, they have the best chance of winning it all, they just need the right draw. They were beat soundly by Michigan State and comfortably by Indiana. They've lost to Ohio State and were taken to overtime in their second meeting before pulling out a win. I think they could struggle against a team that likes to slow the game down a la Wisconsin, where they lost 65-62 in OT. This team does have all the parts to go all the way, but they are far from a sure thing.
Kansas
Rock Chalk Jayhawk are the last of the talked about title contenders. A season that started so well has since seen a 3 game losing streak and caused Bill Self to call his team the worst to ever be on the floor representing the Jayhawks. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a title contender. Their three losses were all to un-ranked teams at the time, at home to Oklahoma State, at TCU, and at Oklahoma. They've turned it around since then with wins over Kansas State and payback for the OSU game by beating the Cowboys in double overtime. Still, this is not your classic, dominant, Bill Self Kansas team. Given their recent tournament struggles, however, maybe that's a good thing. Last year aside, they had lost to #11 VCU in 2011, and #9 Northern Iowa in 2010. Maybe that three game losing streak was a turning point for this team. There still has to be a high level of concern, however, given those three losses to those types of teams. All it takes is one loss in the tournament to some team from the Horizon League and your season is over. Nothing accomplished.
Maybe I'm being too harsh on these teams. Perhaps having witnessed the juggernaut that was the Kentucky Wildcat's 2012 basketball team, my standards have become too high. Having said that, would you put money on any of the above teams? Including the teams mentioned above, there are also teams like Georgetown, Louisville, and Arizona that could have something to say before it's all said and done. The tournament gets so much thrill because of the one and done system. Anyone can fall at anytime. This field seems like the most wide open in recent memory. Could we have no number one seeds in the Final Four again? Could we see two more 15 over 2 upsets like last year? Could we have our first 16 over 1 upset? I guess we'll find out in a couple weeks. March Madness baby!
Matty O
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