Kansas City Cheifs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Personally, I didn't see his standout year coming in 2012. Here was a guy who was only a year removed from ACL surgery, was on the woeful Chiefs, and had Peyton Hillis breathing down his neck for carries. So of course, Charles goes out and runs for over 1500 yards and six total TDs. This year, Andy Reid is in town which should help Charles quite a bit. As Charles owners from last year might remember, his usage at times was puzzling. Six carries in Week 2, five carries in Week 8, and nine carries in Week 15. Don't expect Reid to make those mistakes. He should also see a significant amount of looks in the passing game (Brian Westbrook anyone?), so in PPR leagues I would say he should be the third RB off the board behind AP and Foster. The Chiefs improved their offensive line, and Alex Smith should be able to be enough of a threat in the passing game to open up the line of scrimmage even more than last year.
Bust: Jamaal Charles, RB
For every good thing about Charles, there is a concern. The first one is that, similar to Chris Johnson, he is very reliant on the big run and doing a lot of his damage on two or three carries. If anyone can break one, it's Charles, but just be prepared for weeks like Week 15 last year. Even though he did only get nine carries, he only got ten yards off those carries. Against the Raiders! His big play ability obviously helped him more than it hurt him last year, but just be prepared for a few weeks like that. The second concern is his lack of TDs. He's not a big guy so it's doubtful he will see goal line carries. Despite his home run threat, he only scored five TDs last year on 285 carries. That's one every 57 carries. While I do expect that number to go up with the new coaching staff, I don't think it will drastically. Their O-line may have improved, but it's not the greatest in the world. His breakaway speed could make him the number one back by year's end or his and his teams' limitations could put him outside the top 10.
Sleeper: Dwayne Bowe, WR
While Charles is busy keeping defenders in the box, Bowe now gets to catch passes from a much better QB than he had last year. I was shocked when he decided to stay in KC this summer instead of going to a legit contender. Had he gone to someone like the Patriots, he would probably be projected as a Top 10 WR. Alas, being on the Chiefs weighs that ranking down. Similar to Charles, I expect the amount of looks he gets to increase, and with it his yards and TDs. The Chiefs' schedule reveals very few daunting secondaries, so Bowe should get his chance to make an impact with this team. He makes a great WR3/FLEX and a decent WR2.
Bottom Line:
This is a puzzling team because I could see their season going either way. They could wind up stinking just like last year with the new coaching regime not being effective yet, or with the likes of Charles and Bowe, they could contend for a playoff spot. It's hard to tell with this team, but fantasy wise, Charles and Bowe should be the only two on your radar. Every other Chief will have to prove it to owners during the season before they are rostered.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
Sorry Raider fans, but this is arguably the least talented roster in the NFL. If you can justify any Raider as a stud, by all means try and do so. You know it's bad when I had to put their kicker in this section last year.
Bust: None
It's hard to name a bust on this team when every player is going in the later rounds and no player did anything significant last year.
Sleeper (Circumstantial): Darren McFadden, RB
Okay, so I realize that in my Mock Draft article I warned you to not draft Run-DMC at all. Well, my feelings have changed, sort of. If you have to waste a high draft pick on him or there are proven WRs available where he would be drafted then pass on him, no question. Still, at some point his upside, even with the injuries, will be higher than the other players left on the board. For instance, if DMC winds up on my bench, I could probably live with that. It's not like he's the worst back out there (he did have three 100 yard games last year and six double digit games), he just gets injured a lot. If you do wind up taking him, the best scenario would be for him to have a great first three or four outings, then trade him to an owner that believes. Then watch him get injured a couple weeks later. Based on where you draft him, he could be a sleeper for getting you trade value.
Bottom Line:
Clearly, I don't think highly of the Raiders. DMC only makes the sleeper list because I had to write something about one of the Raiders. I would stay away from this team as much as possible for the upcoming season.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: None
Seems the AFC West is lacking in studs. The three I had on here last year (Ryan Mathews, Antonio Gates, Phillip Rivers) all had dreadful years and have now left this section vacant for the Chargers. I think having a new coaching regime in place will be a good thing for this team, and it's possible someone emerges to have a great year for the Bolts. As it stands right now, however, there is doubt all over this roster.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
I have no idea why he is still drafted so high, or rather at all. Unlike McFadden, whom I would take at the right value, I would not draft Mathews at all. I would rather take a rookie or younger guy with upside than Mathews who has proven to have bones of glass and limited skills when he plays. Heck, the guy had more broken collarbones last year than TDs (2 to 1). Even when healthy last year he was losing carries to Ronnie Brown. Are you kidding me? Now Danny Woodhead is in town and word on the street is that the Chargers are favoring using all their backs equally, cutting down on the opportunities Mathews gets. The reasoning is it will protect Mathews, but if he plays like he did in Week 14 last year (25 carries, 65 yards) then it doesn't matter if he's healthy or not. He won't perform.
Sleeper: Danny Woodhead, RB
Speaking of Chargers running backs, the main beneficiary to Mathews' lack of carries should be the newly acquired Woodhead. Woodhead was a productive player while in New England despite never having the true number one back role. Now he goes to San Diego where I expect the Chargers to limit Rivers' mistakes by running the ball and throwing it short; both of which will help Woodhead's numbers. If you are doing a PPR league, Woodhead becomes very enticing. He had 40 receptions last year as a third string RB (behind Ridley and Bolden). Consider that Antonio Gates, starting tight end for the Chargers who played every game last year, had only nine more receptions, and it's easy to think that Woodhead will make an impact in the passing game. He's probably a borderline FLEX right now until the Chargers announce their final depth chart, but he has great upside and a very low price.
Bottom Line:
The Chargers have a lot of sneaky upside picks, but zero money in the bank picks. I already mentioned Woodhead, but WR Vincent Brown also deserves consideration. Their RB situation becomes much clearer if, or rather when, someone gets injured. Once that is straightened out, then I think their "starting" RB will have pretty good value, but it's hard to determine that as of now. I wouldn't select any Charger in the first eight or nine rounds, but would probably nab a couple in the later rounds and see if they pan out.
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Wes Welker, WR, Demaryius Thomas, WR
Manning just keeps adding to his Hall of Fame career. Coming off neck surgery and switching to a new team with young WRs, there was every excuse to fail. Instead, he posted a ridiculous passing line of 4,659 yards, 37 TDs, and only 11 INTs. Now he gets old rival Welker to use out of the slot, and should have put any concerns about his neck behind him. Realize that Manning should be drafted for his consistency, not his ability to win you a matchup. Even though he never eclipsed 25 points last year, he did get more than 20 points a ridiculous nine times. His only single digit game was Week 2 in Atlanta. I'll chalk that up to being on a new team in a raucous environment. While it's hard to say that he'll have an even better year, it is certainly possible with the weapons he now has at his disposal.
Eric Decker probably would have made this list had Welker not come into town. Consequently, I think Decker sees a drop in his targets because Welker is so good and Manning looks to the slot often. People concerned about Welker will say he's going from being the number one WR to the number three. I would argue that there were times in New England where he was the number three option behind Gronk and Aaron Hernandez. He still put up monster numbers especially in receptions. I think Welker might see less targets than in New England, but I still expect him to put up great fantasy numbers.
Thomas was a guy who, believe it or not, was put on the map during the Tebow regime. He followed that up last year with nearly 1500 receiving yards and 10 TDs. Unlike Decker, I think Thomas sees his targets stay relatively the same as he is simply too talented physically to not throw him the ball early and often. With a year under his belt with Manning and a full training camp, expect great production again from Thomas as he is easily a WR1 for fantasy.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
Are the Broncos going to score 85 points per game? Thought not. Then I'm not sure why or where all this hype for Ball has come from. Maybe the lack of quality RBs in the league this year to begin with? Ball is an unproven rookie who, as of this moment, is still losing first team reps in training camp to Ronnie Hillman. He was supposed to have distinguished himself from Hillman and Knowshon Moreno, but apparently has yet to do that. Denver backs have the ability to put up solid numbers because they can run the ball to drain the clock late in games, but I don't think Ball is worth where he will be drafted. His upside is decent, but I'm not sold just yet.
Sleeper: Welker, WR
People are way too concerned about Welker's switch from New England to Denver. Realize that Manning likes to throw it to slot receivers as much, if not more, than Tom Brady. Going back to his Indy days, Manning turned Dallas Clark, who usually lined up in the slot, into a stud in fantasy. Now he gets an elite WR there...look out. The four players currently projected ahead of Welker are David Wilson, Randall Cobb, McFadden, and Larry Fitzgerald. Apart from Fitz, do you really want any of those over Welker? Seriously? Sure there are more mouths to feed in Denver, but to suggest that Welker's play will drop off significantly is ridiculous. He could be a steal this year.
Bottom Line:
Similar to last year, it's not if they will win this division, but by how much. Their schedule is pretty soft for a division winner, especially when you look at the defenses they will be facing. This should be a great statistical year for all Broncos and it will be interesting to see how the RB situation plays out. Someone is going to get those carries, but it's still up in the air who will. Snag anyone involved in the passing game on this team and you will be pleased with that pick.
Matty O
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