Fantasy Football: Real Or Pretender

Ahmad Bradshaw, Allen Hurns, Delanie Walker.  These are odd names to see in the top eight at their respective positions three weeks through the season.  Yet here they sit ahead of names like LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, and Rob Gronkowski.  The thing that owners need to decide is whether they stay ahead or equal to those big time names, or if this is just an early season oddity and they fall back into the fantasy abyss.  This piece will try and help you decide if you should ride their numbers the rest of the year, or send that player back to the bench.

(Players who have benefited from a starter's absence, while doing little prior to said absence, with the starter returning, won't be on here.  For instance, Knile Davis had a nice couple weeks, but Jamaal Charles will be the man once he's healthy, which is probably this week)

QB

Jay Cutler

Not too many QBs to talk about as most of them have either lived up to their hype or under performed, but Cutler is one that has certainly outplayed his draft position.  He was being drafted outside the top 12 of QBs, meaning he wouldn't be a starter in most fantasy leagues, but sits at the number four spot among QBs after three weeks.  Unfortunately for owners, you might not have even started him during his most productive week in San Francisco.  You should probably start starting him no matter what.  Mark Trestman's system is very QB friendly and, apart from Week 1 vs Buffalo, Cutler has looked surprisingly patient and isn't just slinging the ball wherever he feels like it.  With the weapons he has along with the soft passing defense schedule the rest of the way, look for Cutler to hang around the top six QB area the rest of the way.

Verdict:  Real

Blake Bortles

Obviously it's too early to decide on Bortles because he has yet to make a start, but just wanted to put him in here because I've been hyping him up and now he gets his chance.  I said early in the season that if he played all 16 games, he would finish as a top 12 QB and I stand by that assertion.  The Jags have a porous offensive line, but the weapons around Bortles actually aren't the worst in the world, especially once Marquise Lee gets healthy.  Bortles is tall, strong, and is an above average runner.  The Jags will be down most games because of their defense so Bortles will get a good number of pass attempts.  He'll throw a fair share of interceptions, but also a good amount of TDs.  I think he's really going to shock some people with how good he is.  

RB

Rashad Jennings

Jennings had a low ranking in the preseason simply because of all the unknowns.  No one knew how he would handle a full time load after backing up Darren McFadden.  No one knew if rookie Andre Williams would be taking touches, particularly in the red zone, away from Jennings.  No one knew if the Giants offense would improve from the disaster last year.  Turns out Jennings can handle it, Williams is not taking his touches, and the Giants offense is much better than last year.  He's clearly their workhorse back after receiving a whopping 34 carries last week, and sits at second in the NFL in number of carries.  Two dates with Washington and matchups against Seattle and San Fran are tough, but all his others are cake walks.  I'm not sure he keeps up a top five rate, but top 10 is well within reach.

Verdict:  Real

Ahmad Bradshaw

Speaking of Giants running backs, Bradshaw looks like he used to in New York, showing power and surprising quickness.  The one concern with Bradshaw was his injury history, but that hasn't been a problem so far.  The opportunity was there because of the way Trent Richardson has played since his rookie year, and the Indy coaching staff is finally starting to realize that.  The snap count is becoming closer to favoring Bradshaw, and even when he gets less opportunities, he still outperforms Richardson.  Given Bradshaw's injury history, it's actually probably a good thing Richardson still gets some work since Bradshaw isn't volume dependent.  His passing game and red zone usage are particularly encouraging and I don't see that stopping anytime soon with Richardson as his only competition for RB snaps.

Verdict:  Real

Chris Ivory

Chances are, many of you drafted the wrong Chris.  The popular belief in the offseason  was that Chris Johnson was the Jets running back to own.  Johnson went multiple rounds ahead of Ivory, but it will be Ivory that will finish multiple spots ahead of Johnson in the final rankings.  At this point in his career, Johnson is a get what's blocked kind of runner who relies on his no longer world class speed to pick up yards.  That is not, nor will it ever be, the kind of runner Rex Ryan wants for the Jets.  Ivory might be a hair slower than Johnson, but he's a powerful runner who welcomes taking on defenders.  Ivory has two more rushing TDs and 66 more rushing yards than Johnson, despite getting two less carries.  The Jets will always be a ground and pound team and Ivory is a much better fit for that than Johnson.

Verdict:  Real

Darren Sproles

Sproles has looked like a steal for the Philadelphia Eagles this season as he broke off a long run for a TD in their first game against Jacksonville, then dominated the Colts in Week 2.  He's especially helpful in PPR leagues as he is second behind only Matt Forte in total receptions among RBs.  While it's hard to go against anyone in an offense like Chip Kelly's, I do think Sproles will slow down.  Last year, in another successful offense (Saints), Sproles started off like a man on fire, but cooled off greatly down the stretch.  He's 31 years old and isn't getting any younger.  It's also obvious that LeSean McCoy is still the feature back as Kelly gave McCoy 19 carries last week even though he gained only 22 yards.  Sproles received two.  His pass catching ability might save him a couple weeks in PPR, but in standard leagues, I think he becomes a waiver wire afterthought.

Verdict:  Pretender

WR

Jeremy Maclin

Another Eagle.  I actually liked Maclin more heading into 2013 before he had a season ending injury before the season even started.  I was a bit more skeptical this year with him coming off of injury and with DeSean Jackson no longer there to draw defenses his way.  So far, I've been dead wrong.  He has a TD in each game so far this year and has benefited from Nick Foles' continuing progression as a QB.  With McCoy, Sproles, and Zach Ertz also on the field, Maclin usually finds himself in favorable coverage.  He's the unquestioned number one WR on one of the top three offenses in the league.  He'll finish with WR1 numbers having been drafted as a FLEX or worse.

Verdict:  Real

Kelvin Benjamin

Benjamin has looked the most impressive out of the rookie WRs despite having his backup for the first game, and a clearly not 100% Cam Newton this past Sunday night.  In those two games, however, he's posted lines of 6-92-1 and 8-115-1.  His only poor outing was a drop-filled performance against Detroit.  The targets were there, but he had a "rookie" kind of day.  The Panthers seem to be more pass oriented right now with Jonathan Stewart once again injured and with the read option essentially removed from the playbook for fear of having Cam exposed to big hits.  The passing attack should continue to be a significant part of the offense going forward, and it only helps to have Atlanta's, New Orleans', and Tampa Bay's awful secondaries in your division.

Verdict:  Real

Steve Smith, Sr.

I mentioned this in my Patience Or Panic piece yesterday, as it appears that Smith has become the number one guy on the Ravens.  With Dennis Pitta now out for the year, more targets and receptions can be expected for Smith.  I have to admit, I thought his time was up after last year and he would get lost in the depth chart behind Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones.  Instead, he's surged ahead of both and seems to be Flacco's first look and safety valve all in one.  Age is really the only knock people can make against him, but it's clear his skills are far from diminished.

Verdict:  Real

Brian Quick

Some of you still might not know who he plays for, and that's understandable.  He's part of the unknown or forgotten group of NFL players that make up the Rams' receiving corps.  Fantasy owners, and PPR ones in particular, know him as the guy who put up back to back seven catch, 74+ yard games to start the year, then finally got his first TD last week while playing with a third string QB.  The reason I can't buy into him is that the Rams still want to establish the run with Zac Stacy and they have played an incredibly easy three games in terms of pass defense.  Minnesota is nothing scary, Tampa Bay got shredded by Matt Ryan and Derek Anderson, and Dallas is Dallas.  There are other mouths to feed in that offense as well and Tavon Austin should be back after the Rams' bye.  Quick will still outperform his draft position, but that isn't saying much.  Maybe if you're in a bye week crunch you start him, but sit him otherwise.  Also, San Fran (twice), Seattle, Patrick Peterson (twice), and Aqib Talib are still on the schedule, so there's that.

Verdict:  Pretender  

Allen Hurns

In his best week so far in the NFL, Hurns helped absolutely no one as he sat on the waiver wire.  After going off for 110 yards and two TDs in the opening game, Hurns has come back down to Earth.  He gained 13 yards in Week 2 and was only saved in Week 3 by a 63 yard TD in garbage time, which was his only catch of the game.  Because of his monster Week 1 and fluky catch and run in Week 3, Hurns now sits in the top 10 for WRs.  That won't last.  Bortles will make this offense better, but not elite.  Cecil Shorts, Allen Robinson, and a healthy Marquise Lee are all ahead of him on the depth chart and are all arguably better players.  The only offense in the NFL I've seen that can sustain three true WRs are the Broncos, and the Jags are certainly not that.  

Verdict:  Pretender

TE

Martellus Bennett

The oft forgotten third piece in the passing game for the Bears offense, Bennett is coming off his best season as a pro in 2013 and has started strong out of the gates.  He is currently second among TEs in receptions, 10th in yards, and second in TDs.  With Marshall and Jeffery demanding extra attention and coverage on the outside, it opens up the middle for Bennett to thrive.  He has a TD in every game this year and that should continue given his size and the Bears' lack of a run game.  The only warning I'll give is he can produce some extreme duds from time to time.  While 2013 was his best year, he did have six games with three catches or less and only had one TD the final nine games of last year after starting with four in the first seven.  

Verdict:  Real

Delanie Walker

Walker has emerged as the only consistent starting option on the entire Titans' team.  He was lost for years behind Vernon Davis in San Fran, but actually had a fairly good season last year for the Titans.  Unlike someone like Jason Witten who gets started for his name despite not posting stats, Walker gets benched because of his name, despite posting great stats.  Remember folks, fantasy football is about the numbers, not the names.  Walker has a 17-233-2 line heading into Week 4 and is tied for second in targets among all tight ends (only Jimmy Graham has more).  There's some concern over Jake Locker's health, but I don't think it matters who is at QB.  Walker should finish as a top 10 tight end.
Verdict:  Real

Larry Donnell
No one knew what a Larry Donnell was until Monday Night in Week 1.  The Giants stunk it up in Detroit that night, but Donnell was one of the bright spots.  Manning found his lumbering tight end often, leading to a 5-56-1 line for the undrafted second year pro.  He's yet to score a TD since then, but has given owners at least five receptions and 45 yards on the year, giving him added value in PPR leagues.  Despite his early success, I think he fades.  He's not the fastest of all guys and had his best games when Eli was under pressure basically from the snap (Detroit), and against Arizona, who is consistently terrible against tight ends.  There's also the fact that Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle are still there, with Odell Beckham Jr. on the way to making his NFL debut.  Beckham is someone who projects like a Brandin Cooks/Darren Sproles kind of guy who is quicker than he is fast and will be dependent on high receptions and high yards after catch.  The Donnell targets will start going more to Beckham who can do more than Donnell with those targets.  I'd sell high with Donnell.
Verdict:  Pretender

Hopefully this helped to confirm or change your doubts about a player, giving you a better idea of whether or not you should keep starting these early bloomers.  Remember, these are simply educated guesses and aren't certainties.  Maybe Jay Cutler reverts to bad Cutler and throws 25 interceptions the rest of the way.  Maybe Larry Donnell really is Eli's favorite target and finishes in the top five TEs.  This was all based on stats, players coming back or getting injured, and a player's upcoming schedule.  You're free to do what you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.

Matty O

Fantasy Football: Patience Or Panic

Believe it or not, we're almost a quarter of the way done with the fantasy football season.  Some owners may be looking at their rosters in disgust, wondering how they'll even win a game this year.  Others will be brimming with confidence, fully expecting an undefeated season as they steamroll through their league.  However you're feeling, it's important to remember that everyone's still in it, regardless of record.  Having said that, it's important to recognize trends, whether they are based on injury or depth chart movement, that changes a player's value.

It's very easy to overreact to one bad performance, but sticking with a player who under performs the rest of the year when the warning signs were there early on, would be foolish.  Speaking from personal experience, holding onto and starting players like Stevan Ridley and Victor Cruz last year probably sank your team.  I'm not saying you should drop them, but trading them away or stashing them on the bench wouldn't be the dumbest of all ideas.  Conversely, there are some players who might be struggling right now, but have enough upside to help you down the road.  The following are some players who have head scratching numbers, and my advice on if owners should have patience or if they should panic.  They'll be rated on a scale from 1-10 with 1 meaning owners should be the most patient, and 10 meaning owners should be having mini panic attacks.

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers & Matthew Stafford
I put these two QBs together because they should give owners about the same level of panic and have similar reasons for being optimistic and concerned.  Rodgers and Stafford currently sit 9th and 11th, respectively, in the QB ranks.  Both have had one monster game (Week 2 for Rodgers, Week 1 for Stafford), one nightmare opponent (Rodgers in Seattle, Stafford in Carolina), and one head to head matchup that neither performed well in.  There's still hope to be had here, however.

For starters, none of the passing defenses in the NFC North should scare anyone.  The only difficult matchup remaining for Rodgers is hosting the Panthers and the only one for Stafford is in Arizona.  They both have elite WRs and are in offenses that put an emphasis on throwing the ball.  Rodgers has the stronger arm but a weaker offensive line, while Stafford has a better system but continues to make ill advised throws.  I think both round into form and finish in the top five QBs this year.
Panic Scale:  1

Tom Brady
While Brady wasn't projected to set the world on fire this year, I don't think anyone saw this coming.  Drafted as a starter in 10+ team leagues, Brady is squarely off the fantasy radar.  Consider that Rams' QB Austin Davis has more points than Brady, and the QB leader Andrew Luck has more than doubled Brady's point output.  What's more concerning is the soft schedule he's already faced (Miami, Minnesota, Oakland), and the fact that all his weapons are relatively healthy.  Brady now has to go to Arrowhead on Monday Night, host the Bengals, and gets the Jets twice (Rex Ryan has historically done well against Brady).  It will be very difficult to bet against Brady and the Pats, but this really is turning ugly.  If this continues, you could find Brady on a lot of waiver wires later this year.
Panic Scale:  10

Running Back
LeSean McCoy
Similar to last year, the first ten or so RBs have failed to live up to the hype, whether it be because of injury (Charles, Foster, Martin), suspension (Peterson), or under performing (McCoy, Lacy).  The good news for McCoy owners is that the Eagles play at such a frantic pace that it makes McCoy's floor extremely high.  Obviously he put up a dud this week, but that's because the Redskins have an above average run defense and really sold out to stop McCoy, while the Eagles' wide receivers ran wild on them Sunday afternoon.  Chip Kelly's offense is still run oriented and McCoy is still the workhorse in the backfield despite Darren Sproles' early surge.  The one concern I do have is the Eagles' offensive line which is extremely banged up right now.  He also still has San Fran, Arizona, Carolina, and Seattle left to face, but none of them have seen an offense like Chip's yet.  There's a bit to worry about here, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
Panic Scale:  3

Eddie Lacy
As mentioned above, Lacy is also struggling to give owners a return on investment.  The preseason outlook looked great for Lacy as Rodgers was returning and there was talk in the preseason about the Pack wanting to run more so Rodgers didn't have to throw 200 times a game.  Unfortunately, the numbers haven't been there as Lacy has 113 rushing yards and zero TDs in three games so far.  By comparison, DeMarco Murray has posted better numbers than that in one game.  Working in Lacy's favor when it comes to future success is the fact that the Pack have faced Seattle, the Jets, and Detroit.  All three are notorious for stopping the run so a not so good outing is to be expected.  Still, James Starks has taken some playing time away from Lacy and Lacy still gets to run against soft boxes, so better production should have been there by now.  I'll keep the panic level relatively low right now, but if he has a bad outing this Sunday against a weak Bears' run defense, then it will be time to worry a lot.
Panic Scale:  5

Doug Martin
This might be a bit unfair because he has missed the past two games with an injury, but I've been trying to warn against drafting Martin for the past two years now.  He's wildly inconsistent and for some reason is still highly regarded solely for his dominant performance in 2012 against the Raiders.  Prior to getting injured in Week 1, Martin had nine yards on nine carries.  A lot of you reading this are probably thinking you could get more than nine yards on nine carries and I'd be inclined to agree with you.  Martin's backup, Bobby Rainey, put up great numbers in Week 2, and while he struggled in Week 3, so did everyone on the Bucs.  Martin seems healthy, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs go with some kind of rotation.  They also still want to give targets to Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans.  Even if he gets the lead back position, he'll give you more duds than good performances.
Panic Scale:  8

Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen
The lack of TDs or even yards isn't really that concerning, since Allen's value mostly comes from high amounts of receptions.  He's not getting those early on this season.  The Chargers have emphasized the run, and when they do pass, Phillip Rivers has instead completed passes to the likes of Eddie Royal and Antonio Gates.  Ironically, Allen actually had his best game so far against the Seattle secondary, but failed to take advantage of a nice Week 3 matchup in Buffalo.  The targets are there, but the production isn't.  The Chargers get an incredibly favorable run of horrible pass defenses the next three weeks (Jacksonville, the Jets, at Oakland) so better days should be ahead.
Panic Scale:  2  

Demaryius Thomas
With Eric Decker out of town and Wes Welker suspended, things looked great for D-Thomas as targets should be flying his way.  Owners were probably extremely bummed when those targets instead went the way of Emmanuel Sanders between the 20s and Julius Thomas in the red zone.  Even in D-Thomas' most productive week, when he had five catches for 62 yards and a TD, he was still outperformed in PPR leagues by Emmanuel Sanders who put up an eight catch, 108 yard line.  Wes Welker came back last week and Sanders once again outperformed Thomas badly.  I'm not ready to declare Sanders the number one option on this team yet, but it's certainly getting close.  Similar to LeSean McCoy, being on an explosive offense with Thomas' athleticism and history with Manning will get Thomas respectable lines.  The problem is most people drafted him as a high end WR1, and he may only produce WR2 numbers.
Panic Scale:  4

Andre Johnson
Johnson retained his lofty position in fantasy drafts because, despite a new QB, Johnson had put up great numbers with bad QBs before.  Similar to Thomas, however, another emerging WR may be to blame for Johnson's slow start.  DeAndre Hopkins had an up and down 2013, but really seems to be clicking with new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Hopkins has 227 yards and three TDs in three games and is a solid WR2.  Johnson, meanwhile, has yet to score a TD and hasn't posted a double digit game in standard scoring yet.  While the TDs should come, I think there is legitimate concern that Hopkins is the Texans' WR to own.  Unlike Thomas, Johnson isn't in an offense that will keep his floor high.  The Texans emphasize the run, leaving Johnson to make the most of the few targets that come his way.  So far, he hasn't.
Panic Scale:  6

Larry Fitzgerald
I mean, you had to see this coming.  He struggled last year and has now, without a doubt, been surpassed by Michael Floyd in the pecking order.  Carson Palmer isn't the worst QB in the league, but he's far from elite.  Now with Drew Stanton at the helm, I don't see a turnaround coming for Fitz anytime soon.  It's a shame because I like Fitz as a player and he stuck with the Cards through their laughably bad times.  He gets a favorable stretch in the middle of the season, but faces Seattle down the stretch twice.  I probably wouldn't drop him with bye weeks coming up, but he has become a desperation matchup play at best nowadays.
Panic Scale:  9

Torrey Smith
Like the other guys on this list, Smith's production has been cut into by another WR on his team.  Steve Smith Sr., formerly Steve Smith no Sr. of the Carolina Panthers, has immediately contributed to the Ravens' passing game.  Joe Flacco looks to him early and often, even when the game was on the line last week and they needed a big play to get into field goal range.  Torrey Smith wasn't drafted as a WR1, but he wasn't drafted to be dropped either.  He's slowly, but surely heading that way.  The most concerning week was Week 1 when Flacco threw it an astounding 62 times and Torrey finished with three catches for 50 yards.  Torrey was boom or bust to begin with, but now he might just be bust or bust.
Panic Scale:  10

Tight End
Jason Witten
Witten is probably still being started based on name alone.  Popular perception might still be that the Cowboys are still a passing team, but surprisingly, the Boys seem to now be a run first team.  Great for DeMarco Murray, but not so great for pass catchers not named Dez Bryant.  Witten will still play a high number of snaps, but he'll be blocking much more than in years past which is something he can do quite well.  He is also likely behind Murray and Dez for red zone touches.  He has zero TDs, has yet to post 50 yards in a game, and has 10 total catches in three games.  A few years ago, he'd put up 10 catches in three quarters.  With the emergence of guys like Travis Kelce, Larry Donnell, and Delanie Walker, Witten might become a waiver wire occupant soon.
Panic Scale:  9

Hopefully this will help you in the coming weeks with start/sit decisions as well as with potential trades.  Tune in tomorrow for my Real Or Pretender piece.  It will be like this one, expect instead of disappointing starts, it will be surprisingly good starts and whether or not you can expect them to continue.

Matty O