Believe it or not, we're almost a quarter of the way done with the fantasy football season. Some owners may be looking at their rosters in disgust, wondering how they'll even win a game this year. Others will be brimming with confidence, fully expecting an undefeated season as they steamroll through their league. However you're feeling, it's important to remember that everyone's still in it, regardless of record. Having said that, it's important to recognize trends, whether they are based on injury or depth chart movement, that changes a player's value.
It's very easy to overreact to one bad performance, but sticking with a player who under performs the rest of the year when the warning signs were there early on, would be foolish. Speaking from personal experience, holding onto and starting players like Stevan Ridley and Victor Cruz last year probably sank your team. I'm not saying you should drop them, but trading them away or stashing them on the bench wouldn't be the dumbest of all ideas. Conversely, there are some players who might be struggling right now, but have enough upside to help you down the road. The following are some players who have head scratching numbers, and my advice on if owners should have patience or if they should panic. They'll be rated on a scale from 1-10 with 1 meaning owners should be the most patient, and 10 meaning owners should be having mini panic attacks.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers & Matthew Stafford
I put these two QBs together because they should give owners about the same level of panic and have similar reasons for being optimistic and concerned. Rodgers and Stafford currently sit 9th and 11th, respectively, in the QB ranks. Both have had one monster game (Week 2 for Rodgers, Week 1 for Stafford), one nightmare opponent (Rodgers in Seattle, Stafford in Carolina), and one head to head matchup that neither performed well in. There's still hope to be had here, however.
For starters, none of the passing defenses in the NFC North should scare anyone. The only difficult matchup remaining for Rodgers is hosting the Panthers and the only one for Stafford is in Arizona. They both have elite WRs and are in offenses that put an emphasis on throwing the ball. Rodgers has the stronger arm but a weaker offensive line, while Stafford has a better system but continues to make ill advised throws. I think both round into form and finish in the top five QBs this year.
Panic Scale: 1
Tom Brady
While Brady wasn't projected to set the world on fire this year, I don't think anyone saw this coming. Drafted as a starter in 10+ team leagues, Brady is squarely off the fantasy radar. Consider that Rams' QB Austin Davis has more points than Brady, and the QB leader Andrew Luck has more than doubled Brady's point output. What's more concerning is the soft schedule he's already faced (Miami, Minnesota, Oakland), and the fact that all his weapons are relatively healthy. Brady now has to go to Arrowhead on Monday Night, host the Bengals, and gets the Jets twice (Rex Ryan has historically done well against Brady). It will be very difficult to bet against Brady and the Pats, but this really is turning ugly. If this continues, you could find Brady on a lot of waiver wires later this year.
Panic Scale: 10
Running Back
LeSean McCoy
Similar to last year, the first ten or so RBs have failed to live up to the hype, whether it be because of injury (Charles, Foster, Martin), suspension (Peterson), or under performing (McCoy, Lacy). The good news for McCoy owners is that the Eagles play at such a frantic pace that it makes McCoy's floor extremely high. Obviously he put up a dud this week, but that's because the Redskins have an above average run defense and really sold out to stop McCoy, while the Eagles' wide receivers ran wild on them Sunday afternoon. Chip Kelly's offense is still run oriented and McCoy is still the workhorse in the backfield despite Darren Sproles' early surge. The one concern I do have is the Eagles' offensive line which is extremely banged up right now. He also still has San Fran, Arizona, Carolina, and Seattle left to face, but none of them have seen an offense like Chip's yet. There's a bit to worry about here, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
Panic Scale: 3
Eddie Lacy
As mentioned above, Lacy is also struggling to give owners a return on investment. The preseason outlook looked great for Lacy as Rodgers was returning and there was talk in the preseason about the Pack wanting to run more so Rodgers didn't have to throw 200 times a game. Unfortunately, the numbers haven't been there as Lacy has 113 rushing yards and zero TDs in three games so far. By comparison, DeMarco Murray has posted better numbers than that in one game. Working in Lacy's favor when it comes to future success is the fact that the Pack have faced Seattle, the Jets, and Detroit. All three are notorious for stopping the run so a not so good outing is to be expected. Still, James Starks has taken some playing time away from Lacy and Lacy still gets to run against soft boxes, so better production should have been there by now. I'll keep the panic level relatively low right now, but if he has a bad outing this Sunday against a weak Bears' run defense, then it will be time to worry a lot.
Panic Scale: 5
Doug Martin
This might be a bit unfair because he has missed the past two games with an injury, but I've been trying to warn against drafting Martin for the past two years now. He's wildly inconsistent and for some reason is still highly regarded solely for his dominant performance in 2012 against the Raiders. Prior to getting injured in Week 1, Martin had nine yards on nine carries. A lot of you reading this are probably thinking you could get more than nine yards on nine carries and I'd be inclined to agree with you. Martin's backup, Bobby Rainey, put up great numbers in Week 2, and while he struggled in Week 3, so did everyone on the Bucs. Martin seems healthy, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs go with some kind of rotation. They also still want to give targets to Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Even if he gets the lead back position, he'll give you more duds than good performances.
Panic Scale: 8
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen
The lack of TDs or even yards isn't really that concerning, since Allen's value mostly comes from high amounts of receptions. He's not getting those early on this season. The Chargers have emphasized the run, and when they do pass, Phillip Rivers has instead completed passes to the likes of Eddie Royal and Antonio Gates. Ironically, Allen actually had his best game so far against the Seattle secondary, but failed to take advantage of a nice Week 3 matchup in Buffalo. The targets are there, but the production isn't. The Chargers get an incredibly favorable run of horrible pass defenses the next three weeks (Jacksonville, the Jets, at Oakland) so better days should be ahead.
Panic Scale: 2
Demaryius Thomas
With Eric Decker out of town and Wes Welker suspended, things looked great for D-Thomas as targets should be flying his way. Owners were probably extremely bummed when those targets instead went the way of Emmanuel Sanders between the 20s and Julius Thomas in the red zone. Even in D-Thomas' most productive week, when he had five catches for 62 yards and a TD, he was still outperformed in PPR leagues by Emmanuel Sanders who put up an eight catch, 108 yard line. Wes Welker came back last week and Sanders once again outperformed Thomas badly. I'm not ready to declare Sanders the number one option on this team yet, but it's certainly getting close. Similar to LeSean McCoy, being on an explosive offense with Thomas' athleticism and history with Manning will get Thomas respectable lines. The problem is most people drafted him as a high end WR1, and he may only produce WR2 numbers.
Panic Scale: 4
Andre Johnson
Johnson retained his lofty position in fantasy drafts because, despite a new QB, Johnson had put up great numbers with bad QBs before. Similar to Thomas, however, another emerging WR may be to blame for Johnson's slow start. DeAndre Hopkins had an up and down 2013, but really seems to be clicking with new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Hopkins has 227 yards and three TDs in three games and is a solid WR2. Johnson, meanwhile, has yet to score a TD and hasn't posted a double digit game in standard scoring yet. While the TDs should come, I think there is legitimate concern that Hopkins is the Texans' WR to own. Unlike Thomas, Johnson isn't in an offense that will keep his floor high. The Texans emphasize the run, leaving Johnson to make the most of the few targets that come his way. So far, he hasn't.
Panic Scale: 6
Larry Fitzgerald
I mean, you had to see this coming. He struggled last year and has now, without a doubt, been surpassed by Michael Floyd in the pecking order. Carson Palmer isn't the worst QB in the league, but he's far from elite. Now with Drew Stanton at the helm, I don't see a turnaround coming for Fitz anytime soon. It's a shame because I like Fitz as a player and he stuck with the Cards through their laughably bad times. He gets a favorable stretch in the middle of the season, but faces Seattle down the stretch twice. I probably wouldn't drop him with bye weeks coming up, but he has become a desperation matchup play at best nowadays.
Panic Scale: 9
Torrey Smith
Like the other guys on this list, Smith's production has been cut into by another WR on his team. Steve Smith Sr., formerly Steve Smith no Sr. of the Carolina Panthers, has immediately contributed to the Ravens' passing game. Joe Flacco looks to him early and often, even when the game was on the line last week and they needed a big play to get into field goal range. Torrey Smith wasn't drafted as a WR1, but he wasn't drafted to be dropped either. He's slowly, but surely heading that way. The most concerning week was Week 1 when Flacco threw it an astounding 62 times and Torrey finished with three catches for 50 yards. Torrey was boom or bust to begin with, but now he might just be bust or bust.
Panic Scale: 10
Tight End
Jason Witten
Witten is probably still being started based on name alone. Popular perception might still be that the Cowboys are still a passing team, but surprisingly, the Boys seem to now be a run first team. Great for DeMarco Murray, but not so great for pass catchers not named Dez Bryant. Witten will still play a high number of snaps, but he'll be blocking much more than in years past which is something he can do quite well. He is also likely behind Murray and Dez for red zone touches. He has zero TDs, has yet to post 50 yards in a game, and has 10 total catches in three games. A few years ago, he'd put up 10 catches in three quarters. With the emergence of guys like Travis Kelce, Larry Donnell, and Delanie Walker, Witten might become a waiver wire occupant soon.
Panic Scale: 9
Hopefully this will help you in the coming weeks with start/sit decisions as well as with potential trades. Tune in tomorrow for my Real Or Pretender piece. It will be like this one, expect instead of disappointing starts, it will be surprisingly good starts and whether or not you can expect them to continue.
Matty O
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