(Players who have benefited from a starter's absence, while doing little prior to said absence, with the starter returning, won't be on here. For instance, Knile Davis had a nice couple weeks, but Jamaal Charles will be the man once he's healthy, which is probably this week)
QB
Jay Cutler
Not too many QBs to talk about as most of them have either lived up to their hype or under performed, but Cutler is one that has certainly outplayed his draft position. He was being drafted outside the top 12 of QBs, meaning he wouldn't be a starter in most fantasy leagues, but sits at the number four spot among QBs after three weeks. Unfortunately for owners, you might not have even started him during his most productive week in San Francisco. You should probably start starting him no matter what. Mark Trestman's system is very QB friendly and, apart from Week 1 vs Buffalo, Cutler has looked surprisingly patient and isn't just slinging the ball wherever he feels like it. With the weapons he has along with the soft passing defense schedule the rest of the way, look for Cutler to hang around the top six QB area the rest of the way.
Verdict: Real
Blake Bortles
Obviously it's too early to decide on Bortles because he has yet to make a start, but just wanted to put him in here because I've been hyping him up and now he gets his chance. I said early in the season that if he played all 16 games, he would finish as a top 12 QB and I stand by that assertion. The Jags have a porous offensive line, but the weapons around Bortles actually aren't the worst in the world, especially once Marquise Lee gets healthy. Bortles is tall, strong, and is an above average runner. The Jags will be down most games because of their defense so Bortles will get a good number of pass attempts. He'll throw a fair share of interceptions, but also a good amount of TDs. I think he's really going to shock some people with how good he is.
RB
Rashad Jennings
Jennings had a low ranking in the preseason simply because of all the unknowns. No one knew how he would handle a full time load after backing up Darren McFadden. No one knew if rookie Andre Williams would be taking touches, particularly in the red zone, away from Jennings. No one knew if the Giants offense would improve from the disaster last year. Turns out Jennings can handle it, Williams is not taking his touches, and the Giants offense is much better than last year. He's clearly their workhorse back after receiving a whopping 34 carries last week, and sits at second in the NFL in number of carries. Two dates with Washington and matchups against Seattle and San Fran are tough, but all his others are cake walks. I'm not sure he keeps up a top five rate, but top 10 is well within reach.
Verdict: Real
Ahmad Bradshaw
Speaking of Giants running backs, Bradshaw looks like he used to in New York, showing power and surprising quickness. The one concern with Bradshaw was his injury history, but that hasn't been a problem so far. The opportunity was there because of the way Trent Richardson has played since his rookie year, and the Indy coaching staff is finally starting to realize that. The snap count is becoming closer to favoring Bradshaw, and even when he gets less opportunities, he still outperforms Richardson. Given Bradshaw's injury history, it's actually probably a good thing Richardson still gets some work since Bradshaw isn't volume dependent. His passing game and red zone usage are particularly encouraging and I don't see that stopping anytime soon with Richardson as his only competition for RB snaps.
Verdict: Real
Chris Ivory
Chances are, many of you drafted the wrong Chris. The popular belief in the offseason was that Chris Johnson was the Jets running back to own. Johnson went multiple rounds ahead of Ivory, but it will be Ivory that will finish multiple spots ahead of Johnson in the final rankings. At this point in his career, Johnson is a get what's blocked kind of runner who relies on his no longer world class speed to pick up yards. That is not, nor will it ever be, the kind of runner Rex Ryan wants for the Jets. Ivory might be a hair slower than Johnson, but he's a powerful runner who welcomes taking on defenders. Ivory has two more rushing TDs and 66 more rushing yards than Johnson, despite getting two less carries. The Jets will always be a ground and pound team and Ivory is a much better fit for that than Johnson.
Verdict: Real
Darren Sproles
Sproles has looked like a steal for the Philadelphia Eagles this season as he broke off a long run for a TD in their first game against Jacksonville, then dominated the Colts in Week 2. He's especially helpful in PPR leagues as he is second behind only Matt Forte in total receptions among RBs. While it's hard to go against anyone in an offense like Chip Kelly's, I do think Sproles will slow down. Last year, in another successful offense (Saints), Sproles started off like a man on fire, but cooled off greatly down the stretch. He's 31 years old and isn't getting any younger. It's also obvious that LeSean McCoy is still the feature back as Kelly gave McCoy 19 carries last week even though he gained only 22 yards. Sproles received two. His pass catching ability might save him a couple weeks in PPR, but in standard leagues, I think he becomes a waiver wire afterthought.
Verdict: Pretender
WR
Jeremy Maclin
Another Eagle. I actually liked Maclin more heading into 2013 before he had a season ending injury before the season even started. I was a bit more skeptical this year with him coming off of injury and with DeSean Jackson no longer there to draw defenses his way. So far, I've been dead wrong. He has a TD in each game so far this year and has benefited from Nick Foles' continuing progression as a QB. With McCoy, Sproles, and Zach Ertz also on the field, Maclin usually finds himself in favorable coverage. He's the unquestioned number one WR on one of the top three offenses in the league. He'll finish with WR1 numbers having been drafted as a FLEX or worse.
Verdict: Real
Kelvin Benjamin
Benjamin has looked the most impressive out of the rookie WRs despite having his backup for the first game, and a clearly not 100% Cam Newton this past Sunday night. In those two games, however, he's posted lines of 6-92-1 and 8-115-1. His only poor outing was a drop-filled performance against Detroit. The targets were there, but he had a "rookie" kind of day. The Panthers seem to be more pass oriented right now with Jonathan Stewart once again injured and with the read option essentially removed from the playbook for fear of having Cam exposed to big hits. The passing attack should continue to be a significant part of the offense going forward, and it only helps to have Atlanta's, New Orleans', and Tampa Bay's awful secondaries in your division.
Verdict: Real
Steve Smith, Sr.
I mentioned this in my Patience Or Panic piece yesterday, as it appears that Smith has become the number one guy on the Ravens. With Dennis Pitta now out for the year, more targets and receptions can be expected for Smith. I have to admit, I thought his time was up after last year and he would get lost in the depth chart behind Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. Instead, he's surged ahead of both and seems to be Flacco's first look and safety valve all in one. Age is really the only knock people can make against him, but it's clear his skills are far from diminished.
Verdict: Real
Brian Quick
Some of you still might not know who he plays for, and that's understandable. He's part of the unknown or forgotten group of NFL players that make up the Rams' receiving corps. Fantasy owners, and PPR ones in particular, know him as the guy who put up back to back seven catch, 74+ yard games to start the year, then finally got his first TD last week while playing with a third string QB. The reason I can't buy into him is that the Rams still want to establish the run with Zac Stacy and they have played an incredibly easy three games in terms of pass defense. Minnesota is nothing scary, Tampa Bay got shredded by Matt Ryan and Derek Anderson, and Dallas is Dallas. There are other mouths to feed in that offense as well and Tavon Austin should be back after the Rams' bye. Quick will still outperform his draft position, but that isn't saying much. Maybe if you're in a bye week crunch you start him, but sit him otherwise. Also, San Fran (twice), Seattle, Patrick Peterson (twice), and Aqib Talib are still on the schedule, so there's that.
Verdict: Pretender
Allen Hurns
In his best week so far in the NFL, Hurns helped absolutely no one as he sat on the waiver wire. After going off for 110 yards and two TDs in the opening game, Hurns has come back down to Earth. He gained 13 yards in Week 2 and was only saved in Week 3 by a 63 yard TD in garbage time, which was his only catch of the game. Because of his monster Week 1 and fluky catch and run in Week 3, Hurns now sits in the top 10 for WRs. That won't last. Bortles will make this offense better, but not elite. Cecil Shorts, Allen Robinson, and a healthy Marquise Lee are all ahead of him on the depth chart and are all arguably better players. The only offense in the NFL I've seen that can sustain three true WRs are the Broncos, and the Jags are certainly not that.
Verdict: Pretender
TE
Martellus Bennett
The oft forgotten third piece in the passing game for the Bears offense, Bennett is coming off his best season as a pro in 2013 and has started strong out of the gates. He is currently second among TEs in receptions, 10th in yards, and second in TDs. With Marshall and Jeffery demanding extra attention and coverage on the outside, it opens up the middle for Bennett to thrive. He has a TD in every game this year and that should continue given his size and the Bears' lack of a run game. The only warning I'll give is he can produce some extreme duds from time to time. While 2013 was his best year, he did have six games with three catches or less and only had one TD the final nine games of last year after starting with four in the first seven.
Verdict: Real
Delanie Walker
Walker has emerged as the only consistent starting option on the entire Titans' team. He was lost for years behind Vernon Davis in San Fran, but actually had a fairly good season last year for the Titans. Unlike someone like Jason Witten who gets started for his name despite not posting stats, Walker gets benched because of his name, despite posting great stats. Remember folks, fantasy football is about the numbers, not the names. Walker has a 17-233-2 line heading into Week 4 and is tied for second in targets among all tight ends (only Jimmy Graham has more). There's some concern over Jake Locker's health, but I don't think it matters who is at QB. Walker should finish as a top 10 tight end.
Verdict: Real
Larry Donnell
No one knew what a Larry Donnell was until Monday Night in Week 1. The Giants stunk it up in Detroit that night, but Donnell was one of the bright spots. Manning found his lumbering tight end often, leading to a 5-56-1 line for the undrafted second year pro. He's yet to score a TD since then, but has given owners at least five receptions and 45 yards on the year, giving him added value in PPR leagues. Despite his early success, I think he fades. He's not the fastest of all guys and had his best games when Eli was under pressure basically from the snap (Detroit), and against Arizona, who is consistently terrible against tight ends. There's also the fact that Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle are still there, with Odell Beckham Jr. on the way to making his NFL debut. Beckham is someone who projects like a Brandin Cooks/Darren Sproles kind of guy who is quicker than he is fast and will be dependent on high receptions and high yards after catch. The Donnell targets will start going more to Beckham who can do more than Donnell with those targets. I'd sell high with Donnell.
Verdict: Pretender
Hopefully this helped to confirm or change your doubts about a player, giving you a better idea of whether or not you should keep starting these early bloomers. Remember, these are simply educated guesses and aren't certainties. Maybe Jay Cutler reverts to bad Cutler and throws 25 interceptions the rest of the way. Maybe Larry Donnell really is Eli's favorite target and finishes in the top five TEs. This was all based on stats, players coming back or getting injured, and a player's upcoming schedule. You're free to do what you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Matty O
Verdict: Real
Larry Donnell
No one knew what a Larry Donnell was until Monday Night in Week 1. The Giants stunk it up in Detroit that night, but Donnell was one of the bright spots. Manning found his lumbering tight end often, leading to a 5-56-1 line for the undrafted second year pro. He's yet to score a TD since then, but has given owners at least five receptions and 45 yards on the year, giving him added value in PPR leagues. Despite his early success, I think he fades. He's not the fastest of all guys and had his best games when Eli was under pressure basically from the snap (Detroit), and against Arizona, who is consistently terrible against tight ends. There's also the fact that Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle are still there, with Odell Beckham Jr. on the way to making his NFL debut. Beckham is someone who projects like a Brandin Cooks/Darren Sproles kind of guy who is quicker than he is fast and will be dependent on high receptions and high yards after catch. The Donnell targets will start going more to Beckham who can do more than Donnell with those targets. I'd sell high with Donnell.
Verdict: Pretender
Hopefully this helped to confirm or change your doubts about a player, giving you a better idea of whether or not you should keep starting these early bloomers. Remember, these are simply educated guesses and aren't certainties. Maybe Jay Cutler reverts to bad Cutler and throws 25 interceptions the rest of the way. Maybe Larry Donnell really is Eli's favorite target and finishes in the top five TEs. This was all based on stats, players coming back or getting injured, and a player's upcoming schedule. You're free to do what you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Matty O
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