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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Hope In Chicago

I can't recall a time when, on the same night, two of the biggest stars in one city are put out of commission for a lengthy period of time.  That was exactly what happened last night as news broke that Derrick Rose was going to have surgery on his torn right meniscus, and Patrick Kane got checked into the boards, resulting in an upper body injury (likely his shoulder) which will keep him out 6-10 weeks.  Now, I'm not going to say that each team will definitely still win their respective titles after these injuries.  You could argue that neither would with these players.  I'm just here to say that there is hope that these teams can put themselves in a position to make a run at the Larry O'Brien Trophy and Stanley Cup.

Chicago Bulls
Playoffs
One thing the Bulls have going for them is that they are virtually a lock to make the playoffs.  Yes, they haven't mathematically clinched anything yet, but they are 11 1/2 games ahead of the eighth place Brooklyn Nets as of this writing, with 25 games left to play for the Bulls and 28 left to play for the Nets.  If Chicago were to lose every other game down the stretch and go 12-13, the Nets would have to finish 25-3 in their final 28 games just to tie the Bulls.  No chance.  As long as the Bulls can make it into the playoffs, they at least have a puncher's chance.  The only two teams that would worry me without Rose in Chicago's lineup are the same two that would still worry me with Rose in the lineup (Cleveland and Washington).  I still think the Bulls match up well against most of the teams in the Eastern Conference, and would need Memphis or Houston to come out of the West if they were to win the title.

How Good Has Rose Been?
If the back of his jersey didn't say Rose, his injury wouldn't even be a top story because he really hasn't been a very good player this year.  Excluding last year when Rose only played 10 games, Rose has posted his lowest shooting percentage of his career, his lowest assists per game of his career, his lowest steals per game of his career, and the second lowest points per game total of his career behind his rookie season.  Among his fellow peers this season, Rose ranks tied for 25th in assists per game behind the likes of Elfrid Payton and somehow Blake Griffin, is 5th among point guards for most turnovers per game this season, and is 22nd among point guards in shooting percentage.  The advanced metrics are even worse.  

ESPN has a stat called Real Plus/Minus (RPM) which is the "Player's estimated on court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions.  RPM takes into account teammates, opponents, and additional factors."  Rose currently ranks 165th among all players with a -0.13 RPM, which means he is actually negatively impacting team play.  Fellow Bulls Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, Mike Dunleavy, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol, and Nikola Mirotic all had positive values.  Losing Rose's scoring certainly won't make the Bulls better, but losing everything else just might.

Replacement
Unfortunately for the Bulls, the trade deadline for the NBA has passed.  There is, however, one name that should be seriously considered by the Bulls as a low risk, medium reward player.  Nate Robinson.  Robinson played a key part for the 2012-13 Bulls, and should have no problem adjusting back to Chicago.  He's not going to light up the stat sheet, but he brings a lot of energy to the floor and will at least attack the basket, despite his short height.  The Bulls also have a decent point guard in-house in Aaron Brooks.  Brooks is fifth on the team in points per game, despite being eighth on the team in minutes per game.  Again, he is no Russell Westbrook, but a rotation of Brooks, Robinson, and maybe Kirk Hinrich every once in a while should at least be able to make up for some of the offense that Rose leaves behind.  

Nail In The Coffin?
Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me as many times as Derrick Rose has, shame on everyone.  I get that it is hard to let go of a MVP winning, 26 year old, hometown guy, but eventually you have to cut ties with all these injuries.  Sometimes, as hard as it is and as much as the fan base loves a player, it is best for the organization to let them go and look towards the future at the position.  Imagine if the Colts hadn't let Peyton Manning go.  Yes, they might have gotten a couple more good years out of him, but they also wouldn't have Andrew Luck.  If Rose really is doomed to a career of injuries, it is best for the organization to start building for the future as soon as possible.  Perhaps this surgery will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Chicago Blackhawks
Playoffs
Unlike the Bulls, the Hawks' playoff hopes are a bit more precarious.  They are only eight points ahead of the Minnesota Wild for the second Wild Card spot in the playoffs.  The Wild have been on an absolute tear since acquiring goalie Devan Dubnyk from Arizona.  Dubnyk is 13-3-1 since joining the Wild and have them playing better than a Wild Card team.  The Blackhawks, meanwhile, have been slumping as of late, going 5-2-3 in their last 10 games, including a 6-2 thumping at home against Boston on Hockey Day in America.  Also, unlike the Bulls, it will not be easy to even get out of their own conference.  Nashville is the best team in the NHL right now, Jonathan Quick has found his groove for the Kings, Eddie Lack has killed it for the Vancouver Canucks, the Wild are arguably the hottest team in the NHL right now, and the Blues are talented enough to beat anybody.  A daunting task to say the least.

Trade Deadline Hasn't Passed
One thing the Hawks have in their favor is, if they so choose, they can trade for a talented winger to help make sure the Hawks make the postseason.  Antoine Vermette (not a winger, but can contribute offensively), Jiri Tlusty, and Joffrey Lupul are just a few names that have been rumored to be on the block as the March 2nd trade deadline approaches.  The fact that Kane might return during or after the first round of the playoffs, makes this a tough situation for the Blackhawks.  Do you roll the dice and hope that the current lineup can play well enough to get into the playoffs in time for Kane's return, or do you trade away assets for a player who may, but may not, help you make the postseason because you feel the current roster cannot?  Even though the Blackhawks called back up the talented  prospect Teuvo Teravainen (2 goals, 2 assists, -1 rating in 15 games with the Hawks this year), I still think they need to make some kind of move, if only to add depth.

Patrick Sharp
The 2014-15 season has been quite a struggle for Sharp.  He only has 10 goals this season, a -13 rating, his lowest average time on the ice since 2007, and has even found himself demoted all the way down to the fourth line.  The strange part is, nothing really changed around him from his 78 point campaign last year apart from him being one year older.  He still sees power play time and I would expect him to be a mainstay on the second line now that Kane is injured.  I have to believe that at some point he will get out of his slump and start producing like he did last year.  If so, a trade at the deadline probably won't be necessary as the offense will start to look more like the one last year who finished second in the league in goals per game (3.18), instead of this year's version who is currently ranked tenth (2.82).

Matty O

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