Two Surprising NFL Trades

RB LeSean McCoy traded from Eagles to Bills
LB Kiko Alonso traded from Bills to Eagles

This was a stunner.  Normally before a trade happens, there are at least rumblings about the two teams involved, or at least about a team shopping a player.  Adam Schefter will usually inform the public that, "according to his sources, Team A has interest in trading away so and so."  There were no hints until the trade was announced.  As a Cowboys fan, I was happy this trade happened as I think the Eagles will come out on the losing end of this trade.  For starters, I think they could have gotten more than just Alonso from the Bills.  Alonso had a heck of a rookie season in 2013, but missed all of last year with a torn ACL.  McCoy on the other hand, hasn't missed a game since 2012 and is just one year removed from winning the NFL Rushing Title by almost 300 yards.  Even in a "down" year in 2014, he still finished third in the league in rushing yards with 1,319.  The Eagles should've been able to squeeze at least one or two draft picks out of the Bills.

Determining who wins and loses this deal will all come down to whether Chip Kelly's master plan is going to work.  It seems as though he is getting rid of anyone who doesn't fit his system, regardless of who they are and what they have done in the past, in order to handpick his entire roster.  McCoy does clear up quite a bit of cap space, allowing Kelly to shop around for his kind of running back once free agency begins.  Some people are making a big deal about the fact that he has nine ex-Oregon players on his roster, but that is to be expected.  He wants to get as close to what Kelly's Oregon teams looked like in the pros, and there are very few colleges that run their team at the same break neck speed Oregon does.  Some get close, but most can't match (Auburn is probably the closest thing).

The other thing I find puzzling from the Eagles side of things is the position that they acquired.  Alonso played under Kelly at Oregon so that probably factored a bit into it, but linebacker wasn't really the problem last year.  Their secondary got absolutely smoked in 2014.  They finished 31st out of 32 teams and lost some crucial games because of that porous defense.  When they played the Packers, both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb went over 100 yards receiving.  In the second game against Dallas, when the Eagles were still in the race for the NFC East, they allowed Dez Bryant to go bananas for 114 yards on six catches and three TDs.  Alonso, if he stays healthy, will make this Eagles defense, or any defense for that matter, better as a whole.  In a division with Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Jr., and DeSean Jackson, however, I thought their secondary should have been priority numero uno.

The Bills side of things is much clearer.  It was not surprising at all that new head coach Rex Ryan made an aggressive move for a top level RB.  Rex has always built his teams around running the football and playing solid defense.  Fred Jackson is getting up there in age and CJ Spiller cannot handle the workloads that Rex would demand from him.  While they did lose a playmaker on defense, consider that they were fourth in the NFL last year in total defense, as Alonso watched from the sidelines.  Considering the Bills ranked 25th in team rushing yards, the addition of McCoy should help more than the loss of Alonso hurts.

The only two concerns I have is that the Philly offensive line was much better than what the Bills have now, and the run defenses in the AFC East are much better compared to those in the NFC East.  I'm sure that Rex has a plan to address the line situation in either free agency or the draft.  The opposing run defenses, however, will probably still be stout.  Last year, the Jets (5th), Patriots (9th), and Dolphins (24th) were stronger collectively than the Cowboys (8th), Redskins (12th), and Giants (30th).  Also, and most Cowboy fans know this, that lofty eighth ranking for the Boys was simply because they weren't on the field that often, not because they were actually good at stopping the run.  When you look at yards per attempt allowed, everyone's ranking stays about the same, but the Cowboys go from 8th to 16th.  McCoy will have a harder time finding open running room, but I think the increased volume and commitment to the run should help make up for it.

WR Brandon Marshall traded from Bears to Jets
5th Round Pick traded from Jets to Bears

Unlike the Kiko/McCoy trade, there were rumblings early on in the day about Marshall being traded.  I was surprised, however, when the Jets were the team they traded with.  I can't say I'm in love with the trade from either side.  While the Jets may have gotten a tall, top 20 WR in Marshall, they still don't have a quarterback.  Marshall joins a WR corps of Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, though Harvin is likely to be released.  Two big, strong WRs are great, but not if the guy taking the snaps can't get them the ball.  The Tampa Bay Bucs had two big, strong WRs last year in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.  With no QB, however, the Bucs finished 25th in the league in total passing and "earned" the number one overall draft pick.

A silver lining for the Jets is that Marshall has still been able to put up good numbers with non-Jay Cutler QBs.  Marshall stayed in Denver one year longer than Cutler and topped 100 receptions, racked up 1120 yards, and 10 TDs with Kyle Orton.  He was then traded to Miami, where he spent two years catching passes from Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, and Matt Moore.  Despite that hilarious trio of QBs, he still put up over 1,000 yards each season and caught at least 80 passes.  Geno Smith is no Joe Montana, but I have seen him be better than Henne, Thigpen, and Moore.  Marshall will help whoever is signal calling for the Jets next year, I'm just not sure to what extent.

For the Bears, the reasons for trading away Marshall at least make sense.  Marshall struggled with injuries last year and put up his lowest yardage and reception totals since his rookie season.  He is an outspoken player and, with a new regime in town, sometimes you have to remove those players so the new voices of the coaching staff can be heard.  Also, like Kelly and the Eagles, it clears up cap space so John Fox and the Bears can build the team they want to.  The problem is that I thought Marshall was one of the brighter spots for the Bears last year.  Yes, he had a locker room outburst after the Miami game, but I thought that was a good thing to call out his teammates.  They were 3-4 after that Miami loss, and had just gotten embarrassed by the Dolphins in Soldier Field.  The Bears put up 224 yards of total offense that game, and running back Matt Forte was the leading receiver with 60 yards.  Someone had to say something, and Marshall just happened to be that guy.

Thankfully for the Bears, they still have Alshon Jeffery who is a monster of a receiver and should start to get even more targets now that Marshall is gone (fantasy footballers should be excited).  This year's WR class is also fairly deep, so if the Bears wish to go that route, then the opportunity is certainly there.  The main thing that should bother Bears fans is that they only got a fifth round pick.  Marshall did have a down year last year, but prior to 2014, he had seven consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 yards.  He's 30 years old which is a concern for running backs, but receivers usually have a longer shelf life.  Another thing to consider is that the Bears haven't exactly struck gold in the fifth round.  Since 2005, their fifth round picks have been Airese Currie (2005), Mark Anderson (2006), Kevin Payne (2007), Corey Graham (2007), Zackary Bowman (2008), Kellen Davis (2008), Johnny Knox (2009), Marcus Freeman (2009), Joshua Moore (2010), Nathan Enderle (2011), and Jordan Mills (2013).  Maybe they can find their guy this year.

Like the NFL Draft, we'll really never know if any of these four teams got it right.  Maybe the Eagles become the number one ranked defense next year.  Maybe McCoy wins another rushing title and gets the Bills to the playoffs.  Maybe Marshall and Decker help a young QB muscle their way to relevancy.  Maybe the Bears find a QB to replace Cutler in the fifth round.  Who knows?  What I do know is that moves like these can make or break careers.  You'll either be touted as a genius for having the foresight to know what your team needs, or you'll be ridiculed for making such a risky move, and have to look for a new job sooner rather than later.

Matty O