2015 AFC Outlook

Defending Champs:  New England Patriots
I had my questions about the Pats prior to Brady being freed from suspension, and those questions still linger despite Brady having his four game suspension nullified.  On the offensive side, their two leading receivers from last year, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman, have been struggling with injuries this offseason, with LaFell winding up on the reserve/PUP list to start the year, meaning he won't be available until Week 8.  While Rob Gronkowski had a monster season last year, don't forget that 2014 was his first injury-free season since 2011.  They also surprisingly released Jonas Gray, who was their leading rusher last season.  I know that LeGarrette Blount did well down the stretch, but all that leaves in the Pats' backfield is Blount, Brandon Bolden, and James White.  Defensively, they lost star cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, and are counting on guys like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to replace them.  Bill Belichick has a knack for getting the most out of no-name players, but eventually the Pats are going to experience a drop off.  With the rest of their division improving in the offseason, I think 2015 is the year we see the Pats decline.

Most Likely To Fall Off:  Pittsburgh Steelers
Obviously the Pats would be my choice if I had not written about them above, so I'll go with the offensively scary, defensively porous Steelers.  Last season, the Steelers made the playoffs behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger and a schedule that saw them play only two playoff teams outside their division (Panthers, Colts).  This year, they face the AFC and NFC West (at Seattle in Week 12), along with going to New England to open the season and playing the Colts a week after their visit to Seattle.  Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, budding young WR Martavis Bryant is suspended for the first four games, and Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is injured and won't be back until around Week 12.  Their defense is still extremely suspect and is unlikely to improve significantly upon their 18th overall total defense ranking last season.  Some people view this team as a Super Bowl contender, but in a division that got three teams to the playoffs last year, I think the Steelers could be struggling to fight for a Wild Card spot.

Most Likely To Surprise:  Miami Dolphins
On paper, this team looks like an elite club.  Ryan Tannehill continues to improve at QB each season, and the Dolphins' front office has done an excellent job surrounding him with weapons for this upcoming season.  Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry were already there, but they added TE Jordan Cameron and WR Kenny Stills, along with drafting WR DeVante Parker and RB Jay Ajayi.  Reports are that star left tackle Branden Albert will be ready for Week 1, giving Tannehill one less thing to worry about.  Defensively, this team made the biggest offseason splash by landing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.  He will plop down right in the middle of edge rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.  Those three should terrorize QBs from the get go, allowing Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes to capitalize on badly thrown footballs.  The hype train for the Dolphins has been rolling for a couple years now and I think they finally have the pieces in place to break through.

Team With The Most To Prove:  Indianapolis Colts
Although Andrew Luck seemed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame from the day he was drafted, he has yet to translate that into postseason success.  The Colts are in arguably the weakest division in football, giving them fairly easy access to the playoffs year after year.  Despite this, they have been absolutely destroyed by the Patriots the last two seasons in the playoffs, and were crushed by the Ravens in 2012 as well.  I know he's only in his fourth year, but it's time for Luck to start putting up his regular season numbers in the playoffs.  Thankfully for Luck, he now has new veteran teammates in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, as well as 2015 first round WR Phillip Dorsett.  This should be one of, if not the, best offenses in the league.  The defense, however, is a problem.  Vontae Davis is a legit shutdown corner, but their run defense is abysmal and doesn't project to be much better in 2015.  The Colts can throw it all they want, but when they run into teams like the Ravens and Patriots who are more than willing to just pound the ball inside, then they crumble as a team.  Again, maybe I'm being too hard on Luck considering he's still pretty young, but with a free pass to the playoffs on a yearly basis, it's time to start performing much better against the big boys in the AFC.

Division by Division Final Standings
East
1.  Dolphins
2.  Patriots
3.  Bills
4.  Jets
North
1.  Ravens
2.  Bengals
3.  Steelers
4.  Browns
South
1.  Colts
2.  Texans
3.  Jaguars
4.  Titans
West
1.  Broncos
2.  Chiefs
3.  Chargers
4.  Raiders

Playoff Seeding
1.  Colts
2.  Ravens
3.  Broncos
4.  Dolphins
WC1.  Chiefs
WC2.  Patriots

Matty O