What a wild Week 1 it was in the fantasy football world. There were injuries, unexpected studs and duds, as well as predictable performances. This article will address notable trends or things that happened in Week 1 and whether you should write it off as a Week 1 anomaly (No Deal) or take it as a sign of things to come (Big Deal). I'll provide at least one nugget of info for each NFL team.
Arizona: Andre Ellington hurt (Big Deal)
Ellington has struggled with injuries since coming into the league in 2012 and 2015 started with more of the same. Reports are that Ellington strained his PCL, leaving him out 2-3 weeks. Chris and David Johnson have a chance to take over the Cards' backfield while Ellington is out. Ellington is shaping up as a bust already and is no sure bet to remain healthy once he returns to the field.
Atlanta: Julio Jones' dominance (Big Deal)
Jones was absolutely unstoppable Monday Night, despite being matched up against Philly's new star corner Byron Maxwell. He was targeted early and often and should benefit from an aging Roddy White and the Falcons showing mild success in the run game. This is a strong start to my prediction that he will be the number one overall fantasy WR this year.
Baltimore: Offensive ineptitude (No Deal)
The Ravens looked a mess against the Broncos in Week 1, but I expect a lot of teams to look that way against this attacking Broncos' defense this year. I think this was just a bad way to start the year for Baltimore on the road against one of the top defenses in the league. Luckily, they get a nice bounce back opponent in Oakland this weekend. Look for Justin Forsett and Steve Smith to put up their normal numbers.
Buffalo: Sammy Watkins shutout (Big Deal)
Things were already bleak for Watkins owners before Week 1 as Tyrod Taylor is not known for his arm, and head coach Rex Ryan would love to pound the football as much as possible. Fellow WR Percy Harvin actually managed to have a good game, but he's also had flashes of greatness with the Vikings and Seahawks only to fall flat the next week. I think Watkins has one or two good games this year, but who knows when those will take place? Watkins was likely drafted by many as a starter, but will probably be riding the bench after a zero point performance in Week 1.
Carolina: Greg Olsen held to one catch for 11 yards (No Deal)
Unlike Watkins, Olsen has a QB that he is comfortable with that has shown he will gladly funnel targets Olsens' way. It just didn't happen in Week 1. The Panthers pounded the ball against the hapless Jags, but likely will need to air it out more in this week's game against Houston. With no other reliable passing options beyond Olsen, expect a bounce back game this week and moving forward.
Chicago: Matt Forte's offensive involvement (Big Deal)
What a start for Forte! There was a lot of talk in the offseason about how Forte might lose some of his fantasy value with Mark Trestman leaving, but Forte looked even better this year as he racked up 141 carries on 24 yards and finished second on the team with eight targets in the passing game. They even split him out in the slot when they went with an empty backfield. His usage in the Green Bay game reminded me of Le'Veon Bell last year, who just so happened to finish as the number one overall RB in fantasy in 2014.
Cincinnati: Tyler Eifert breaks out (Big Deal)
I mentioned Eifert in my Fantasy Breakdown series as a potential sleeper, mainly because he had the TE position all to himself in 2015 with Jermaine Gresham in Arizona. I didn't think he would have such a successful debut though. Eifert was targeted 12 times and racked up 104 yards and two TDs in a blowout over the Raiders. With teams focusing on AJ Green, it should leave Eifert open in the slot and down the seams. Health permitting, Eifert could be the steal of a lot of people's drafts.
Cleveland: Offensive ineptitude (Big Deal)
Unlike the Ravens, I don't think Cleveland will bounce back. They looked dreadful on the offensive side of the ball. I know the Jets are a good defense, but they are now down to Johnny Manziel as their QB. While he did throw the only TD for the Browns of the game, he was also picked and lost two fumbles. The running stats might be even more hilarious as QB Josh McCown managed to out rush RBs Duke Johnson and Isiah Crowell. Looks like a long year for this team.
Dallas: Joseph Randle out-touches Darren McFadden 19-7 (Big Deal)
The Cowboys' backfield was a complete mystery coming into this year, but it looks like we got a bit of clarity. Randle is the lead back with McFadden picking up the scraps, while Lance Dunbar works as more of a WR than a true RB. So long as he stays out of trouble off the field, Randle should continue to dominate touches in the Cowboy backfield, with Dunbar being a valuable player in PPR leagues if Dallas has to play from behind like they did Sunday night.
Denver: Peyton Manning throws for 175 yards, zero TDs (Big Deal)
Maybe this is like Tom Brady from last year where he struggles early and comes on towards the end. Unfortunately, Manning struggled at the end of last year and looked off once again on Sunday. He was still his usual self calling plays at the line of scrimmage, but his deep ball was off, allowing the Ravens to condense their defense and put the clamps down on this offense as a whole. While I wouldn't bench Manning, I would have another QB in mind to add to your bench just in case things don't turn around. The Broncos go to Arrowhead this Thursday.
Detroit: Ameer Abdullah outplays Joique Bell (Big Deal)
In the preseason, you were either on the Abdullah hype train or you weren't. After Week 1, that train just got a whole lot fuller. While he only got one more carry than Bell, Abdullah easily outplayed him by totaling 50 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards, and one rushing TD. The Lions have been trying to become a more balanced team and they might finally have the RB to carry the load. I wouldn't be surprised if Bell is phased almost completely out of the picture by the Lions' Week 9 bye.
Green Bay: James Jones' 2 TDs (No Deal)
I could be completely off here, but I think that Jones just had his best game he will have this season, and he did it on a lot of people's benches and waiver wires. He's still the number three WR behind Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb, both of whom were targeted more than Jones. He might have the chemistry with Rodgers, but Adams and Cobb are more talented players. I like both of them over the long haul. Jones will be a TD-dependent, inconsistent option at best this season. He could very well get shutout this week if he draws Richard Sherman.
Houston: Backfield committee (Big Deal)
With Arian Foster injured, there was a chance for one of these Houston backs to emerge and take the starting job while he is out. Unfortunately, that didn't happen with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes getting almost the same number of carries. I'm on record having said that I think Polk is the best of the bunch, but unfortunately I'm not on the coaching staff. This backfield may be a situation to avoid until Foster's return.
Indianapolis: Frank Gore totals 31 yards, zero TDs (No Deal)
The Colt offense struggled as a whole against the Bills, but at least Andrew Luck was able to deliver 2 TD passes and TY Hilton was able to snag seven balls for 88 yards. Gore, the other highly drafted Colt, was hardly a factor in the game and was completely bottled up. Everyone has been saying for years that this will be the year that Gore finally declines, but I think he'll still be okay. Week 2 against the Jets will probably give him another dud, but he should clear up after that. His backups Josh Robinson and Tyler Varga did little to impress in their limited action.
Jacksonville: Allen Robinson held to one catch, 27 yards (No Deal)
Robinson had a lot of factors working against him this game. He missed some time with a foot injury (he did return), was matched up against one of the better unknown corners in the league in Josh Norman, and was facing a Panthers team that had a running game plan in mind and held the ball for almost ten minutes more than the Jags. Like all the Jags' players, inconsistency is to be expected, but they should be trailing in most of their games, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities to catch balls, particularly with Julius Thomas out. Robinson did still see six targets.
Kansas City: Travis Kelce goes for 106 yards, 2 TDs (Big Deal)
Similar to Eifert of the Bengals, all Kelce needed was for the guy in front of him to go away. Limited by Anthony Fasano's presence last year, Kelce exploded to start 2015 as the Chiefs' main TE and passing weapon. He was consistently open and was an easy target for Alex Smith. While the Chiefs still can't get a WR in the end zone, expect Kelce to many times this season.
Miami: Offense struggles vs Redskins (No Deal)
This one is no deal, but with a bit of nervousness. I can understand the Dolphins struggling in the run game as Washington is stout in that category, but Ryan Tannehill should have carved up that secondary. While he was efficient, the Dolphins only mustered 10 offensive points and Tannehill threw for only 226 yards. That was good for 17th among Week 1 QBs, behind Brian Hoyer who didn't even finish the game. They get a break this week playing Jacksonville, but things could get ugly in Weeks 3 and 4 as the Bills and Jets come to town.
Minnesota: Adrian Peterson flops in return to field (No Deal)
For starters, I was absolutely shocked that Minnesota went with passing plays on their first possession leading to a three and out. Secondly, I don't think anyone expected the 49ers' defense to be that good this year. They not only ruined AP's night, but they made Bridgewater look absolutely lost out there. AP lined up in the shotgun a lot, which is not his style, so hopefully the Vikings go with bigger sets in the future. Just give him the ball, let the defense stack the box, and let him rumble.
New England: Dion Lewis gets 19 touches (Big Deal)
Obviously part of Lewis' usage was due to Legarrette Blount being suspended, but I still think Lewis has established himself in the Shane Vereen receiving RB role. He looked quick and decisive and caught four of his five targets for 51 yards. The Pats' backfield will always be opponent dependent, but when they play teams with stout defensive fronts (Jets, Bills), I expect Lewis to deliver, particularly in PPR leagues.
New Orleans: Mark Ingram catches eight balls for 98 yards (No Deal)
Ingram owners might take this as a great sign, but keep in mind that CJ Spiller was out this game and has a chance to come back in Week 2. He will be the unquestioned featured back in the passing game. Ingram will continue to get his carries, but don't treat Ingram as some kind of PPR maven all of a sudden. Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston also had down games, which I don't expect to happen often. Hope you enjoyed the Ingram PPR points while they lasted.
New York Giants: Odell Beckham Jr catches five passes for 44 yards (No Deal)
Beckham, a popular dark horse to finish as the number one overall WR this year, struggled in his 2015 debut. The Cowboys constantly were rolling safeties over the top of him, preventing any long, big plays. I wouldn't be too worried though as he was still targeted a team high eight times. Division rivals know each other well, so I expect him to have a bounce back game in an out of division matchup against the Falcons this week.
New York Jets: Chris Ivory is the Jets' workhorse (Big Deal)
Ivory mashed the Browns on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, totaling 90 yards and two rushing TDs. He probably would have had more if the game hadn't gotten out of hand and the Jets letting Bilal Powell finish out of the fourth quarter. Health will always be a concern for Ivory, but he should see 20+ carries weekly in the Jets' backfield. Feel free to upgrade him to a RB1, particularly against the Colts this coming Monday Night.
Oakland: Amari Cooper doesn't live up to hype (Big Deal)
I still think Cooper is a talented player, but the team situation that he is in is terrible for his value. Derek Carr was less than impressive before he got injured, and Matt McGloin did his damage when the game was well out of reach. Cooper also has to compete with Michael Crabtree for targets as Cooper only got one more target than Crabtree and the same number of catches (5). Cooper will be matched up against top corners week in and week out and still has to face Jimmy Smith, Joe Haden, Darrelle Revis, and Chris Harris (twice). He'll have good weeks in plus matchups, but he'll have less good performances than expected by those that took a chance on the rookie.
Philadelphia: Eagles' run game sputters (No Deal)
Despite the perception of this high flying, up tempo attack, Chip Kelly's offense is really built around the run game. They were unable to establish the line of scrimmage, limiting DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to 13 yards combined. In fact, it was Darren Sproles who stole the show carrying the football as he toted it five times for 50 yards. I think the Eagles will make more of a commitment to the run in the weeks to come, though there is some concern that their defense will put them in positions where they have to play catch up. Bradford threw the ball a ridiculous 52 times on Monday Night. I don't expect him to come close to that many attempts for the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh: Big Ben throws for 351, one interception, one garbage time TD (No Deal/Big Deal)
It's no deal in the sense that I think he will improve upon these numbers, but it is a big deal if you bought into the idea that the Steelers would be able to throw the ball all over the place like last year and Big Ben would be a top five QB. They were without Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, but their second WR Markus Wheaton, failed to step up to the plate once again and played poorly. If it weren't for Antonio Brown's skills and Heath Miller's reliability, Ben's line could have looked much worse. I think people fell in love with Big Ben's back to back six TD games last season and expected similar dominance this year. Not so fast my friend.
Saint Louis: Rams out gain Seahawks in total yardage (Big Deal)
The fact that the Rams beat the Seahawks didn't surprise me so much as how well the Rams played offensively. This team was known for their defense, but starting Benny Cunningham at RB and listing Brian Quick, their best WR, as a healthy scratch, had the makings of a blowout in favor of Seattle. Instead, Nick Foles finished with a 115.8 passer rating and threw the game winning TD in the waning moments of the game. Once the Rams get Tre Mason and possibly Todd Gurley healthy, they might actually have some fantasy relevant pieces, despite many, including myself, doubting they would even have one.
San Diego: Danny Woodhead outplays Melvin Gordon (Big Deal)
I warned people about this heading into 2015 and the first game of the year played out just like I predicted. Gordon got some between the 20s looks, but when it came down to the red zone, the Chargers simply trusted Woodhead more. Woodhead found the end zone two times and was his usual self out catching passes out of the backfield, hauling in four receptions for 20 yards. Gordon's 14 carries did lead the Chargers RBs, but without the TDs, Gordon will be a borderline bench player, despite being drafted as a RB2 by some people.
San Francisco: Carlos Hyde runs wild (Big Deal)
Everything about how the 49ers played on Monday Night shocked me, including Hyde. Hyde showed a surprising amount of quickness having being pigeonholed as a rumbling between the tackles back, and racked up 168 yards and 2 TDs on the Vikes defense. The Niners clearly want to continue to pound the football, and so long as their defense plays in dominant fashion, they should be able to. I try not to overreact to Week 1, but it was hard not to watch that game and think this Niners team could be a real threat in the NFC.
Seattle: Tyler Lockett totals 119 return yards on four kicks, scores once (Big Deal)
This kid is the real deal. A rookie out of Kansas State, Lockett is the new Devin Hester in the NFL, except he also can make noise on offense as well. While he might help some leagues that count return yards, he will help all owners of the Seattle D/ST with his return TDs. He is electric every time he touches the football and Pete Carroll is trying to work him into the offense as well.
Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston's terrible debut (Big Deal)
It's not so much Winston's fault as it is the people around him. The Bucs have multiple rookies on the offensive line and have their best receiving weapon in Mike Evans injured at the moment. Head coach Lovie Smith has never had incredible offenses anyways, and their defense looks putrid enough to put the Bucs in a lot of holes this year. With the Falcons showing an improved defense and Carolina still looking stout on D, expect the Bucs to wind up with a single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft, and for Winston's rookie numbers to look anything but impressive.
Tennessee: Marcus Mariota's wonderful debut (Big Deal/No Deal)
Similar to Big Ben, there's two sides to the coin here. It's a big deal in that I think he will be successful this year, but no deal if you think he's throwing for four TDs that easily every week. Mariota had a perfect passer rating and four TDs, but only had to throw the ball 16 times. I'd like to see how he performs when his defense has to face a great offense and Mariota has to use his arm to keep up. He is very startable in this week's matchup against the Browns, but will have to keep up with Andrew Luck in Week 3, then faces the Bills' D in Week 4. Let's see where he stands after that.
Washington: Alfred Morris runs for 121 on 25 carries (Big Deal)
There really wasn't too much to take away from this game apart from the fact that DeSean Jackson got injured. I think we all expected the Skins' pass game to be below average and Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon to be the main targets. Morris' 121 yards stood out, however, because this Dolphin defense added Ndamukong Suh in the offseason to plug up the run. Morris was able to average 4.8 yards per carry and was the clear workhorse in the backfield. If they can get closer to the end zone more times than they did on Sunday, Morris will continue to be a solid and steady RB2, no matter who is behind center.
Matty O
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