"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." It is as though Charles Dickens was chronicling my fantasy season this year. Two different leagues, two vastly different results. One league for money, one for a Cubs game. One standard scoring, the other used point per reception (PPR). One was managed by myself, the other was part of a project in class with the team run by two others apart from myself. One saw a title win for me, the other saw a second to last place finish. Along the way I noticed things, regretted things, and rejoiced over things. Here are some highlights from this year, as well as previewing next year. Let's start at the draft.
Best Draft Pick
Dez Bryant (WR - Cowboys) - He was on my team in both leagues. Both leagues were 12 team leagues and I got him in the 4th in my pay league and the 5th in the other. Usually I would try to dig a bit deeper for best draft/value pick, but the bottom parts of both my drafts weren't the best. Having said that, getting Dez where I got him, is ridiculous. What do Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz all have in common? They were all WRs taken before Dez, but finishing behind him in fantasy points this season.
I can't fault people for not picking him and, as you'll find out later, I actually tried actively to trade him. He has had a history of drops and had his share of off the field problems. But c'mon, the dude is a physical freak. You had to figure he would break out at some point. He destroyed the opposition in the second half of the season and rewarded his owners with a 34.4 (43.4 in PPR) pt effort in the championship week for most leagues. The scary part is that he put up insane fantasy numbers despite three games early in the season with less than 2 pts and a broken finger in the last two weeks. Imagine what he'll do next year with a full off season. Yikes!
Worst Draft Pick
Phillip Rivers (QB - Chargers) - Where to begin with this clown? He has become my most hated player in football. I figured he got all the suckiness out of his system last year. There's no way he could be bad again this year right? Wrong! He only put up three games over 20 pts all season, whereas RG3 did that in his first three games. I actually watched a couple Chargers games and his interceptions were just awful. I'd just scratch my head and wonder what in the world he was throwing to/at? His talent makes him so tempting, but he had a banged up offensive line and made terrible decisions. Although I got him in the fifth round, I still took him ahead of the likes of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Andrew Luck. Get it together Phil!
Best Waiver Pickup
Alfred Morris (RB - Redskins) - Morris wasn't on my team for that long, but he was a key in a trade package that allowed me to get Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster (I gave LeSean McCoy, Roddy White, and Morris for AP and Foster). Even if I had kept him, he still had one heck of a season and finished ahead of the likes of Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Michael Turner to name a few. It is very rare that a player that productive is able to be scooped up off waivers, but he went undrafted in virtually every league. Anyone that was lucky enough to pick him up sure was a happy camper.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Ryan Tannehill (QB - Dolphins) - This was the contributing factor to one of only three losses in my PPR league. Aaron Rodgers was on a bye and Tannehill had put up decent numbers and was going up against the soft Titans defense. He should be good for 15-17 pts, at least double digits. What does this jamoke do? Puts up 2.58 pts. Those are Phillip Rivers numbers! Although we still finished first in the overall standings, that game made it closer than it needed to be.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Dez Bryant - See a theme here? Dez is awesome. Thankfully, his awesomeness did not show until late in the season. Before then, I'm pretty sure I tried to trade Dez on a daily basis. I packaged him with others, tried trading straight up, I just thought he would struggle down the stretch and Romo would go back to throwing to Miles Austin a lot. My quest to trade him started after his week 10 performance against Philly where he posted 14 (ESPN Standard Scoring) pts. The offer I thought would have the most success was Dez, Titus Young (a nine point effort in week 10 and 22 pts two weeks before that), and Josh Freeman (guy I was trading with was a Vick owner) for Calvin Johnson. It was declined and Dez by himself went on to post 121 points from week 11 on, whereas Megatron went for only 104. Fortunately for him, his team still made the playoffs, but lost last week in the semis, by 12.
Player I Can't Believe I Traded
Adrian Peterson (RB - Vikings) - Yep, I'm the doofus that traded AP. Hear me out though. When I traded him, he constantly had injury updates saying something was hurting. I still didn't trust his knee all that much either and cringed whenever I saw him take a hit. Before I traded him (week 9 when he went bananas), he had only put up two good games, against Jacksonville and Arizona. He also still had to face Seattle, the Bears (twice), Houston, and his bye. He was getting his yards, but not his TDs, and I didn't think that would change. Silly me. He went for 31 pts in week 9 against Seattle and finished the year with at least 25 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Lesson learned: Never doubt AP's recovery from injury. Ever.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Matt Ryan (QB - Falcons) - This was a toss up between Ryan, Seattle's D, and Reggie Wayne, but Ryan takes the cake. Ryan's draft position was all over the place as he dropped to the eighth in one of mine, and was taken as high as the third in my other. A discussion on value based drafting will be presented later. The fact is he was taken after a number of quarterbacks due to him not putting up monster numbers in the past and the Falcons leaning on Michael Turner and the run game to win them games. Instead, the Falcons unveiled a hurry up, no huddle offense which Ryan thrived in. Sure he had some bad games (Oakland and Arizona come to mind), but he also had spectacular ones such as the opener against KC, at the Superdome against New Orleans, and most recently on the road against the Lions to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. He won't go nearly as low next year since the secret is out, but he gave great value if you snagged him in 2012.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Christian Ponder (QB - Vikings) - Similar to the Best Sleeper section, there were a few to choose from here. I thought Ponder would make great strides this year with AP and Percy Harvin helping out as well as another year in the Viking's system. Nope. Even though the Vikings are playing outstanding this year, Ponder has been far from great. He's had a couple nice games such as against San Fran (go figure) and at Washington, but his inconsistency continues to hurt him. It didn't help that Harvin got injured and the offense started to lean heavily on AP. I actually still agree with everything I wrote in his sleeper section, it just didn't pan out. Maybe next year buddy.
Best Bust Prediction
Jermichael Finley (TE - Packers) - What happened to this guy? He used to be the next Antonio Gates, but drops and broken chemistry with A-Rod have led him to many fantasy benches and even the waiver wire in some leagues. His talent and size are there, he just couldn't put it all together this year. He had two, yes two, double digit fantasy outings. He finished behind the likes of Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, and Scott Chandler. Not exactly an All Star group of TEs right there. In a twist of fate, I think I'll actually put him in my sleeper section next year because I think his draft stock will fall significantly. The guy can still play and if he could catch the ball, he has the potential to put up Gronk and Graham type numbers. Only time will tell.
Worst Bust Prediction
Bears D/SPT - Here's one for the Bears fans reading this. I was wrong about your defense. They put up five games of over 20 points and got takeaways left and right. I thought this group would start the aging/breaking down process this year, but it was not to be. For those that picked the Steelers D over this group, sorry. My prediction of bust actually started to come true towards the end of the season. Urlacher got hurt (which I thought would happen at the start of the season) along with many other players and the Bears put up -1, 5, and 6 points in weeks 13, 14, and 15, respectively. I still don't like them for next season as I think they were way too dependent on turnovers this year. I'll say that next year is the year they bust. Gotta get it right sometime don't I?
Just a few other tidbits of info:
A note on value based drafting
I mentioned this before when talking about Matt Ryan. Value based drafting is what all fantasy players should do. This is the reason why your draft probably saw a number of running backs go early and very few WRs. Why is that? The reason is because I can find a quality WR in the later rounds, but that is very hard to do with running backs. For example, in one of my leagues, Mike Williams (WR - TB) was taken in the 13th round. This was the number 2 WR on the Bucs. He would be on the field, playing, after having only one down year last year. By comparison, Rashard Mendenhall was taken in that same round, a few spots after Williams. The thing is, Mendenhall was injured, was already guaranteed to miss some games, and had to adjust to a new system with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. So in the 13th round you can have a solid #2 WR or a RB with injury issues that is guaranteed to miss games. See the point? You can get good receivers late, not so much with running backs.
The other example I will bring up is the drafting of RG3. He was taken in the second round in one of my drafts. Despite the fact he put up first round numbers, this was not a good pick. It took all of us drafting by surprise. Why is it not a good pick, you might ask given his extraordinary season? Well, consider some of the players taken after that pick in the same round were Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Wes Welker. RG3 was being taken around the 6th round in most drafts. This person's selection in the sixth round was Shonn Greene. So his team could have had RG3/Forte instead of RG3/Greene. Realize that even with Greene's 34 point performance, Forte missing the St. Louis game, and Forte not scoring more than 20 points, he still finished ahead of Grenne. The difference is even more staggering if you consider if he would have drafted Marshall or one of the Falcons receivers. Just keep that in mind about players that are projected low. As great as you think they will be, you'd be better off getting them at their appropriate spot rather than passing up a great player in the first or second round.
RG3 Works For Me
Along these lines, anyone who did draft RG3 should have at least been in their league's playoffs. Even the person described above made it. The team I played in the PPR league for the title had RG3. If you had RG3 on your team and did not make the playoffs, never play fantasy again (unless you drafted MJD and DeMarco Murray). Heck, as long as you found a viable backup for week 15, you should have made your title game. Period. Some people I know had RG3 and A-Rod on the same team! Imagine the trade possibilities. So, again, although I don't want to deter people from fantasy football, if you had RG3 and didn't make the playoffs, it might be time to find a new hobby.
PPR Awesomeness
I didn't really notice the difference between PPR and non until this year. I had always been in a standard league, but I like the PPR a lot more. I feel there is much more skill in player selection involved. With standard leagues, players essentially are rewarded for the big plays and TDs. Mike Wallace might only have one catch, but if that catch is for 60 yards and a TD then BAM, 12 points and you're glad you started him. PPR is great because you can have a player like Danny Amendola, who will not get drafted anywhere near Mike Wallace, get 6 catches for 60 yards and he's got 12. I feel like standard is a lot more luck and PPR rewards true contributors to their teams. Wallace's one deep catch might come in garbage time, whereas Amendola contributes throughout the game and probably helps the Rams pick up one or two first downs. Obviously the big names like Megatron and AJ Green will be great in both formats, but it allows the Amendolas and Antonio Browns of the world to make a difference in fantasy football.
Luck, No, Not Andrew
Last, but not least, luck. I'm beginning to lose faith in my fantasy predictions and wonder how people like Matthew Berry have jobs. I'm not saying there's zero skill involved. If you start Mark Sanchez, the Jaguars D, and Shane Vereen then yeah, you'll probably lose. But there were so many instances this year where my team would outscore nearly every other team, except the one I was facing. Players that have no business having big games, would have big games against my team. My team, in the regular season, outscored 6 out of the other 11 teams in my league including two teams that went to the playoffs. For points against, however, I had the most points scored against me by 40 points. One team barely got 1000 scored against him which is ridiculous. Here is my shout out to all the players that pushed the luck NOT in my favor
Oh hey, Reggie Bush wanna drop 30 on me, the only time you will all season? Sure. "Don't worry," says Jamaal Charles, "I can top that." 35 dropped on my face. Rams rookie kicker, bet you feel like putting up 17? Yep! Jordy Nelson knows how to put up 30 too (I actually won that week though). Issac Redman about to drop 20 on me? Seriously? You haven't been playing all year. Andre Johnson, time to remember how to play when you play my team. Oh right, here's 33 for ya.
Whew. Deep breath. I actually won three of my last four matchups including the Sacko Bowl, so no hilarious, embarrassing stunts for me. Also, a title win in my PPR league helped to ease the pain. All I know is my Sundays are about to become much more productive, and I cannot wait for next year. Worst to first baby!
My Top 10 for next year
1. AP
2. Foster
3. RG3
4. A-Rod
5. Brady
6. Rice
7. Lynch
8. Megatron
9. Brees
10. AJ Green/Doug Martin
Matty O
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
49ers: Ya Got Me Convinced
If you don't read the whole thing, at least check out the part at the end.
Ever since last year when the 49ers made their Super Bowl run, I've doubted them. Sure that defense is nasty, and their special teams is fundamentally sound (even though it cost them in the NFC Title Game last year), but am I supposed to believe that Alex Smith can quarterback a Super Bowl winning team? Thankfully, it looks like I won't have to. Enter Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick was a second round draft pick out of the University of Nevada. Had he played at a more prominent university, he might not have come out of nowhere like he has. Consider that at Nevada, he was the only FBS quarterback to ever pass for over 10,000 yards and rushed for over 4,000 yards in a career. He made Nevada a relevant program and was a thorn in Boise State's side for the years he was there. Early this year, he was learning and sitting patiently behind Alex Smith as he watched his 49ers go 6-2 heading into their bye week. Then came week 10 against the Rams. Smith, who had been playing well so far, went down with a concussion.
Down 17 entering the 4th quarter, the 49ers needed a stellar performance from Kaepernick, and he delivered. He passed for 117 and ran for 66 with a touchdown. The most important stat was zero, as in number of turnovers. He took care of the ball, didn't try to be Aaron Rodgers, and let the stellar defense keep the 49ers in the game. It worked, sort of. Despite tying the game in regulation, both teams missed field goals in OT, and the game ended in a tie. This was the start of the Kaepernick movement and may even become the Kaepernick era if he keeps it up. While there was some controversy and confusion at first over who would start, Kaepernick has solidified his spot as the starter to the delight of 49er, and fantasy football fans everywhere.
Since that tie, he has gone 4-1 with his only loss coming against the Rams in OT. Thankfully for the 49ers it doesn't look like they will be facing the Rams in any context until next season as the Rams will likely miss the playoffs. San Fran, meanwhile, have already clinched a playoff spot and can win the division with a win over Seattle this Sunday. His most recent virtuoso came against the Patriots yesterday in prime time, in Foxborough, in the rain, on Sunday Night Football. This is when I became a believer.
The Patriots, at home, in the second half of the season? Forget about it. Frequent flyer miles aside, there's really no good reason to even go play them. Stay home, enjoy California, take the L. Instead, Kaepernick and the defense came out on a tear and jumped out to an early lead. By the end of the first quarter, the Pats had already thrown an interception and fumbled the ball, while Kaepernick had already thrown a TD to ex-Patriot Randy Moss. By the end of the first half, it was 17-3 as the defense had smothered Brady and the vaunted hurry up Pats offense. In the third quarter, when the Pats had halftime to make adjustments, it got worse.
Their first two possessions of the third quarter, the Pats fumbled and threw yet another interception. The fumble led to a whacky touchdown when Kaepernick fumbled the snap (a common occurrence for the 49ers in this game) and an alert Frank Gore picked it up and ran it in for a TD. The interception led to a Michael Crabtree TD catch from Kaepernick. With ten minutes left in the third, it was San Fran - 31, Pats - 3. People may have picked the 49ers to win, but no one expected a blasting of this magnitude. Then, as if content with their lead, the 49ers played a kind of prevent defense. They were still getting pressure and making tackles, but it wasn't as intense as early on as anyone who saw the game will tell you. Not the best of all decisions. No matter how good your defense is, if you give players like Brady or Rodgers time back there, they will tear your defense to shreds. And he did.
New England rattled off 28 straight points with Brady contributing to two of them (ran for one, threw for one). He was shredding the defense, as the atmosphere in the stands picked back up, and defense found itself once again. Three and out became the name of the game as the Pats tied the game with around seven minutes still left to play. The way the Pats were moving the ball, it wasn't that crazy to think they might win by a couple scores after being down 31-3. The Pats then fell victim to special teams and the Kap. Following the TD that tied the game, returner LaMichael James, who should be used more in their regular offense, raced down the sideline and returned it for 62 yards. The very next play, Kap showed poise in the pocket and found a wide open Crabtree for a 38 yard TD. San Fran's D seemed to wake up and they sacked Brady twice on the Pats next possession. A late field goal by the 49ers put it pretty much out of reach, though Brady made it interesting at the end. After a Pats FG put them within striking distance, a failed onside kick ended the game at 41-34. Regardless of the score, this was a big win.
Colin proved to me, he can ball. His other victories were impressive, but I still needed to see something. The Chicago win was impressive, but as we're seeing now and as I've tried to warn people all year, the Bears are overrated. When that defense doesn't get turnovers for the offense (49ers turned it over 0 times) they are a mediocre team at best as the 49ers proved in destroying them 32-7. I started to get a bit more belief when they beat the Saints in the Superdome, but that was against the Saints D. I could grab ten other random friends and we could go put up a few scores on that D, so I still wasn't that impressed. His other victory came against the Dolphins and well, they're the Dolphins. This win spoke volumes about how good this team is. On the road, in a place where no one wins, and they pull it out with a guy who wasn't even in the conversation of starter a few weeks ago.
The upcoming schedule is going to be tough and test Kap. If he can knock off the Seahawks in Seattle, then you would simply have to be ignorant to not give this kid his props. His dual threat running and passing keeps defenses guessing and he rarely makes the bad decision that costs his team the game (excluding the 16-13 OT loss to St. Louis, though he did a lot to put his team in a position to win). I could certainly see this team Super Bowl bound. As of right now, they have a first round bye and finally have their man at quarterback. The other teams in the playoffs would be the Falcons, Packers, Redskins, Vikings, and Seahawks. They've already beaten the Pack and Seahawks. They have not and will not play the Redskins or Falcons. Their loss to the Vikings was early on when Alex Smith played like, well, Alex Smith with an INT and a fumble lost. I think it would be a different story this time around. Hop on the bandwagon while there's still seats available. This wagon is going all the way down to New Orleans. See you there New England!
Matty O
On a much more serious note and just something that I've noticed the last couple days, people need to take a different perspective when thinking about the shooting in Newtown, CT. I've seen multiple, long threads on Facebook about gun control and recently numerous people posting about Deadspin.com's article regarding Sunday Night Football and Obama's speech. Stop it. You like gun control? Fine. Write a letter to your senator or read up on gun policy instead of giving reasons like "guns are evil." All those gun control posts do is just wind up in 10 people going at it over guns, freedom of speech, and finally ending up at why Coke is better than Pepsi. It's pointless. Were those tweets mentioned in the article appropriate? No, of course not. But what good are you trying to accomplish by posting that? Are you trying to go after football, even though all stadiums and players paid tribute to those victims? I bet your workplace won't do that today. Were you trying to go after people that hate Obama, and try to associate hating Obama with rudeness and classlessness? Or are you just trying to make other people look bad? You can disagree with me on this and I probably won't see eye to eye with everyone, but if you really do care, then post stuff like the Morgan Freeman post.
To those that have not read it, he makes the point that the media will "glorify" this shooter which gives others something to strive for or top. Everyone will know the shooter's name by week's end yet many of the victims will go unknown and lost from memory. If you really want to take something away from this, research a news article like this, that makes you familiar with one of the victims involved. You can also donate to United Way CT or the Red Cross. Again, don't take my head off for this if you don't agree, but just think about which of your actions will have the desired results you want. Thanks for reading!
Ever since last year when the 49ers made their Super Bowl run, I've doubted them. Sure that defense is nasty, and their special teams is fundamentally sound (even though it cost them in the NFC Title Game last year), but am I supposed to believe that Alex Smith can quarterback a Super Bowl winning team? Thankfully, it looks like I won't have to. Enter Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick was a second round draft pick out of the University of Nevada. Had he played at a more prominent university, he might not have come out of nowhere like he has. Consider that at Nevada, he was the only FBS quarterback to ever pass for over 10,000 yards and rushed for over 4,000 yards in a career. He made Nevada a relevant program and was a thorn in Boise State's side for the years he was there. Early this year, he was learning and sitting patiently behind Alex Smith as he watched his 49ers go 6-2 heading into their bye week. Then came week 10 against the Rams. Smith, who had been playing well so far, went down with a concussion.
Down 17 entering the 4th quarter, the 49ers needed a stellar performance from Kaepernick, and he delivered. He passed for 117 and ran for 66 with a touchdown. The most important stat was zero, as in number of turnovers. He took care of the ball, didn't try to be Aaron Rodgers, and let the stellar defense keep the 49ers in the game. It worked, sort of. Despite tying the game in regulation, both teams missed field goals in OT, and the game ended in a tie. This was the start of the Kaepernick movement and may even become the Kaepernick era if he keeps it up. While there was some controversy and confusion at first over who would start, Kaepernick has solidified his spot as the starter to the delight of 49er, and fantasy football fans everywhere.
Since that tie, he has gone 4-1 with his only loss coming against the Rams in OT. Thankfully for the 49ers it doesn't look like they will be facing the Rams in any context until next season as the Rams will likely miss the playoffs. San Fran, meanwhile, have already clinched a playoff spot and can win the division with a win over Seattle this Sunday. His most recent virtuoso came against the Patriots yesterday in prime time, in Foxborough, in the rain, on Sunday Night Football. This is when I became a believer.
The Patriots, at home, in the second half of the season? Forget about it. Frequent flyer miles aside, there's really no good reason to even go play them. Stay home, enjoy California, take the L. Instead, Kaepernick and the defense came out on a tear and jumped out to an early lead. By the end of the first quarter, the Pats had already thrown an interception and fumbled the ball, while Kaepernick had already thrown a TD to ex-Patriot Randy Moss. By the end of the first half, it was 17-3 as the defense had smothered Brady and the vaunted hurry up Pats offense. In the third quarter, when the Pats had halftime to make adjustments, it got worse.
Their first two possessions of the third quarter, the Pats fumbled and threw yet another interception. The fumble led to a whacky touchdown when Kaepernick fumbled the snap (a common occurrence for the 49ers in this game) and an alert Frank Gore picked it up and ran it in for a TD. The interception led to a Michael Crabtree TD catch from Kaepernick. With ten minutes left in the third, it was San Fran - 31, Pats - 3. People may have picked the 49ers to win, but no one expected a blasting of this magnitude. Then, as if content with their lead, the 49ers played a kind of prevent defense. They were still getting pressure and making tackles, but it wasn't as intense as early on as anyone who saw the game will tell you. Not the best of all decisions. No matter how good your defense is, if you give players like Brady or Rodgers time back there, they will tear your defense to shreds. And he did.
New England rattled off 28 straight points with Brady contributing to two of them (ran for one, threw for one). He was shredding the defense, as the atmosphere in the stands picked back up, and defense found itself once again. Three and out became the name of the game as the Pats tied the game with around seven minutes still left to play. The way the Pats were moving the ball, it wasn't that crazy to think they might win by a couple scores after being down 31-3. The Pats then fell victim to special teams and the Kap. Following the TD that tied the game, returner LaMichael James, who should be used more in their regular offense, raced down the sideline and returned it for 62 yards. The very next play, Kap showed poise in the pocket and found a wide open Crabtree for a 38 yard TD. San Fran's D seemed to wake up and they sacked Brady twice on the Pats next possession. A late field goal by the 49ers put it pretty much out of reach, though Brady made it interesting at the end. After a Pats FG put them within striking distance, a failed onside kick ended the game at 41-34. Regardless of the score, this was a big win.
Colin proved to me, he can ball. His other victories were impressive, but I still needed to see something. The Chicago win was impressive, but as we're seeing now and as I've tried to warn people all year, the Bears are overrated. When that defense doesn't get turnovers for the offense (49ers turned it over 0 times) they are a mediocre team at best as the 49ers proved in destroying them 32-7. I started to get a bit more belief when they beat the Saints in the Superdome, but that was against the Saints D. I could grab ten other random friends and we could go put up a few scores on that D, so I still wasn't that impressed. His other victory came against the Dolphins and well, they're the Dolphins. This win spoke volumes about how good this team is. On the road, in a place where no one wins, and they pull it out with a guy who wasn't even in the conversation of starter a few weeks ago.
The upcoming schedule is going to be tough and test Kap. If he can knock off the Seahawks in Seattle, then you would simply have to be ignorant to not give this kid his props. His dual threat running and passing keeps defenses guessing and he rarely makes the bad decision that costs his team the game (excluding the 16-13 OT loss to St. Louis, though he did a lot to put his team in a position to win). I could certainly see this team Super Bowl bound. As of right now, they have a first round bye and finally have their man at quarterback. The other teams in the playoffs would be the Falcons, Packers, Redskins, Vikings, and Seahawks. They've already beaten the Pack and Seahawks. They have not and will not play the Redskins or Falcons. Their loss to the Vikings was early on when Alex Smith played like, well, Alex Smith with an INT and a fumble lost. I think it would be a different story this time around. Hop on the bandwagon while there's still seats available. This wagon is going all the way down to New Orleans. See you there New England!
Matty O
On a much more serious note and just something that I've noticed the last couple days, people need to take a different perspective when thinking about the shooting in Newtown, CT. I've seen multiple, long threads on Facebook about gun control and recently numerous people posting about Deadspin.com's article regarding Sunday Night Football and Obama's speech. Stop it. You like gun control? Fine. Write a letter to your senator or read up on gun policy instead of giving reasons like "guns are evil." All those gun control posts do is just wind up in 10 people going at it over guns, freedom of speech, and finally ending up at why Coke is better than Pepsi. It's pointless. Were those tweets mentioned in the article appropriate? No, of course not. But what good are you trying to accomplish by posting that? Are you trying to go after football, even though all stadiums and players paid tribute to those victims? I bet your workplace won't do that today. Were you trying to go after people that hate Obama, and try to associate hating Obama with rudeness and classlessness? Or are you just trying to make other people look bad? You can disagree with me on this and I probably won't see eye to eye with everyone, but if you really do care, then post stuff like the Morgan Freeman post.
To those that have not read it, he makes the point that the media will "glorify" this shooter which gives others something to strive for or top. Everyone will know the shooter's name by week's end yet many of the victims will go unknown and lost from memory. If you really want to take something away from this, research a news article like this, that makes you familiar with one of the victims involved. You can also donate to United Way CT or the Red Cross. Again, don't take my head off for this if you don't agree, but just think about which of your actions will have the desired results you want. Thanks for reading!
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
NIU in the BCS
Like it or not, the Huskies are in. 12-1, undefeated in the MAC, and crashing the BCS as the first non-automatic qualifying conference team to make a BCS bowl that was not undefeated. Since the announcement, the decision has caused quite a bit of controversy. Even as a Huskies fan, I can see both sides to it, although I do think in the end, they deserve to be there.
For those who don't follow NIU, Kirk Herbstreit is public enemy number one amongst Huskie fans. During the Selection Show that put NIU against 11-2 Florida State, Herbstreit called it a sad state for college football that the Huskies got in, going so far as to call it a joke. While his choice of words was probably not the best, he did bring up some good points (hear me out Huskie fans). Unlike all the "BCS busters" in the past, this Huskies team doesn't really have that hype or signature win. The only team from a major conference they beat was Kansas, and they finished last in the Big 12. Their other big win was against a questionable number 17 Kent State in the MAC Championship. I actually thought the Kent State and NIU rankings should have been reversed going into that game (NIU was No. 21). Add in a close win against Army, and you have a less than impressive resume to say the least. The lackluster schedule that lesser conference teams play has been used against teams for years. The thing that should give people pause when seeing NIU in a BCS game is the way they went through their "easy" schedule.
One point ESPN analysts kept bringing up, that is a good point, is the BCS busters of old absolutely DOMINATED their competition. Take the 2006 Boise State team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. They only played one team from a power conference in Oregon State, who eventually finished the year in the top 25. Apart from that, they played the likes of Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Idaho. Similar to NIU's Toledo, BSU also had a formidable team in their conference that year that finished 11-3 and 7-1 in the WAC in Hawaii. So while the easiness of schedule is comparable, the dominance is not. NIU beat a last place Kansas team by 7. BSU beat said Oregon State team who finished in the top 25, by 28. They rolled through their schedule, surviving a scare against San Jose State, but ultimately finishing undefeated. Due to Ohio State losing in the National Championship, they wound up as the only undefeated team that year. It was a memorable team, who played in one of the most memorable bowl games ever.
To be fair to NIU, they also had a stretch of conference games where they were blowing teams out, and they have yet to play their bowl game which could turn into a classic. Still, I wouldn't even call this NIU team the most memorable one in recent years. The team I would turn to would be the 2003 Huskies team led by Michael Turner. They started the year beating a top 20 Maryland team, went on the road and beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and beat Iowa State of the Big 12. Realize that the Iowa State win that year was the icing on the cake, whereas the Kansas win this year was a "big" deal. Unfortunately, that NIU team lost to a ranked Bowling Green team whose only losses that year were to #4 Ohio State and twice to a Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami of Ohio team, and rival Toledo, both games away from home. Due to the lack of bowl tie-ins, the 10-2 Huskies were left watching bowl games instead of playing in them. Instead of a worthy Huskies team, Northwestern, Kansas, and UCLA played in bowls, lost, and finished with losing records (6-7). Now the shoe is on the other foot due to the BCS system. It is for this reason that the Huskies deserve to be in the Orange Bowl.
The only teams that I do have sympathy for in this whole BCS mess are Georgia and Texas A&M. Georgia played the #2 ranked Crimson Tide hard and lost the game in a heart breaking way. I thought they would wind up beating the Tide and playing Notre Dame for the title. They improved greatly throughout the year and deserve a BCS bowl spot. A&M actually did beat that Crimson Tide team and had potential Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel electrifying stadiums all year. Their only losses were by three to #3 Florida and by five to #8 ranked LSU. But don't remove NIU to get those two great teams in there. Instead, if we're trying to keep mediocre teams out of the BCS, remove Louisville and Wisconsin.
Louisville won the Big East. Big whoop. One could easily make the argument that the MAC is better than the Big East overall. Unlike NIU, who played a ranked Kent State team, Louisville went the entire season without having to do so. While NIU's loss came by one to Iowa, Louisville was throttled by 7-5 Syracuse by 19 and lost in triple overtime to a 5-7 Connecticut team. They won by seven points or less in six of their ten wins, compared to four such wins for NIU. Wisconsin, meanwhile, might have destroyed Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, but their overall record is 8-5 and only 4-4 in the Big Ten. The only reason they were even there is because the two teams ahead of them in their division, Ohio State and Penn State, are ineligible to play in the Big Ten title game. The only ranked team they played this year was Nebraska, having lost in the regular season but winning when it counted. This is also a team that beat Northern Iowa and Utah State by a combined seven points. SEVEN! And these two teams belong in the BCS? That Mr. Herbstreit, is the true joke of the BCS.
Look, NIU can't change its schedule. They don't control who is in the MAC. They play who they play. Larger programs refuse to face NIU at home and, given NIU's recent success, refuse to play them at all. This is one of the reasons why Iowa played NIU at Soldier Field rather than a home and home. NIU beat everyone on their schedule besides that Iowa team, although it was only by one the first game of the season. The team wasn't nearly as good as it is now and they had their chances to win that game. After that game, they went on a tear, averaging 42 points per game the rest of the year. They hung 63 points on UMass and 55 on Central Michigan, both Divison I FBS teams. Before you write that off as just beating up on bad teams, realize that NIU's Orange Bowl opponent Florida State hung 55 on Savannah State. Savannah State is a Division I FCS or I-AA team who finished last in their conference this year. Clearly, despite a flawed BCS system, NIU deserves to be there. They won their conference, beating a tough Kent State team in the process, and finished with only one loss. It's not their fault the Georgias and A&Ms of the world got left out.
This may be one of the last years that something like this happens because of the approaching playoff system. I hope NIU takes advantage of it. It seems people are pushing this game to the side and ready to call it a blow out. Not so fast my friend. Hope comes in the form of Jordan Lynch and the Clemson game that Florida State won. Although they beat the Tigers, Clemson's quarterback Tajh Boyd presents similar problems for defenses that Lynch has. Both are more than capable runners and can throw the ball when called upon. Boyd threw for 237 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 44 rushing yards before the Tigers fell. If Lynch can have the kind of patience he displayed in the MAC title game, I think he can have success against this FSU defense. I do think some of the bounces and "lucky" plays will have to go NIU's way to win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Apart from the Fiesta Bowl (Oregon vs Kansas State), this is the bowl that you should tune into as far as the BCS is concerned.
BCS Bowl Matchups as it should be
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Kansas State - They got this one right in what should be the best bowl game out of all of them, BCS or not
Orange Bowl: Florida vs Florida State - Rivalry game in a BCS bowl? Taking place in Miami? Yes please. All the legends would come back for that game. It would be great for the sport
Sugar Bowl: Stanford vs NIU - This would be a great game in my opinion with superstar Lynch going against freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan in a surprisingly evenly matched game. Also, putting this game in New Orleans would get rid of Stanford's closeness to the Rose Bowl and put NIU in a dome (see MAC Championship for NIU's success in domes)
Rose Bowl: Texas A&M vs Georgia - Regardless of who is playing, the Rose Bowl is always a big deal, so why not let the two SEC titans battle it out. Being in separate divisions kept them from playing each other this year. Manziel and veteran Aaron Murray would get to duke it out in what would be an exciting, high scoring affair
Matty O
For those who don't follow NIU, Kirk Herbstreit is public enemy number one amongst Huskie fans. During the Selection Show that put NIU against 11-2 Florida State, Herbstreit called it a sad state for college football that the Huskies got in, going so far as to call it a joke. While his choice of words was probably not the best, he did bring up some good points (hear me out Huskie fans). Unlike all the "BCS busters" in the past, this Huskies team doesn't really have that hype or signature win. The only team from a major conference they beat was Kansas, and they finished last in the Big 12. Their other big win was against a questionable number 17 Kent State in the MAC Championship. I actually thought the Kent State and NIU rankings should have been reversed going into that game (NIU was No. 21). Add in a close win against Army, and you have a less than impressive resume to say the least. The lackluster schedule that lesser conference teams play has been used against teams for years. The thing that should give people pause when seeing NIU in a BCS game is the way they went through their "easy" schedule.
One point ESPN analysts kept bringing up, that is a good point, is the BCS busters of old absolutely DOMINATED their competition. Take the 2006 Boise State team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. They only played one team from a power conference in Oregon State, who eventually finished the year in the top 25. Apart from that, they played the likes of Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Idaho. Similar to NIU's Toledo, BSU also had a formidable team in their conference that year that finished 11-3 and 7-1 in the WAC in Hawaii. So while the easiness of schedule is comparable, the dominance is not. NIU beat a last place Kansas team by 7. BSU beat said Oregon State team who finished in the top 25, by 28. They rolled through their schedule, surviving a scare against San Jose State, but ultimately finishing undefeated. Due to Ohio State losing in the National Championship, they wound up as the only undefeated team that year. It was a memorable team, who played in one of the most memorable bowl games ever.
To be fair to NIU, they also had a stretch of conference games where they were blowing teams out, and they have yet to play their bowl game which could turn into a classic. Still, I wouldn't even call this NIU team the most memorable one in recent years. The team I would turn to would be the 2003 Huskies team led by Michael Turner. They started the year beating a top 20 Maryland team, went on the road and beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and beat Iowa State of the Big 12. Realize that the Iowa State win that year was the icing on the cake, whereas the Kansas win this year was a "big" deal. Unfortunately, that NIU team lost to a ranked Bowling Green team whose only losses that year were to #4 Ohio State and twice to a Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami of Ohio team, and rival Toledo, both games away from home. Due to the lack of bowl tie-ins, the 10-2 Huskies were left watching bowl games instead of playing in them. Instead of a worthy Huskies team, Northwestern, Kansas, and UCLA played in bowls, lost, and finished with losing records (6-7). Now the shoe is on the other foot due to the BCS system. It is for this reason that the Huskies deserve to be in the Orange Bowl.
The only teams that I do have sympathy for in this whole BCS mess are Georgia and Texas A&M. Georgia played the #2 ranked Crimson Tide hard and lost the game in a heart breaking way. I thought they would wind up beating the Tide and playing Notre Dame for the title. They improved greatly throughout the year and deserve a BCS bowl spot. A&M actually did beat that Crimson Tide team and had potential Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel electrifying stadiums all year. Their only losses were by three to #3 Florida and by five to #8 ranked LSU. But don't remove NIU to get those two great teams in there. Instead, if we're trying to keep mediocre teams out of the BCS, remove Louisville and Wisconsin.
Louisville won the Big East. Big whoop. One could easily make the argument that the MAC is better than the Big East overall. Unlike NIU, who played a ranked Kent State team, Louisville went the entire season without having to do so. While NIU's loss came by one to Iowa, Louisville was throttled by 7-5 Syracuse by 19 and lost in triple overtime to a 5-7 Connecticut team. They won by seven points or less in six of their ten wins, compared to four such wins for NIU. Wisconsin, meanwhile, might have destroyed Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, but their overall record is 8-5 and only 4-4 in the Big Ten. The only reason they were even there is because the two teams ahead of them in their division, Ohio State and Penn State, are ineligible to play in the Big Ten title game. The only ranked team they played this year was Nebraska, having lost in the regular season but winning when it counted. This is also a team that beat Northern Iowa and Utah State by a combined seven points. SEVEN! And these two teams belong in the BCS? That Mr. Herbstreit, is the true joke of the BCS.
Look, NIU can't change its schedule. They don't control who is in the MAC. They play who they play. Larger programs refuse to face NIU at home and, given NIU's recent success, refuse to play them at all. This is one of the reasons why Iowa played NIU at Soldier Field rather than a home and home. NIU beat everyone on their schedule besides that Iowa team, although it was only by one the first game of the season. The team wasn't nearly as good as it is now and they had their chances to win that game. After that game, they went on a tear, averaging 42 points per game the rest of the year. They hung 63 points on UMass and 55 on Central Michigan, both Divison I FBS teams. Before you write that off as just beating up on bad teams, realize that NIU's Orange Bowl opponent Florida State hung 55 on Savannah State. Savannah State is a Division I FCS or I-AA team who finished last in their conference this year. Clearly, despite a flawed BCS system, NIU deserves to be there. They won their conference, beating a tough Kent State team in the process, and finished with only one loss. It's not their fault the Georgias and A&Ms of the world got left out.
This may be one of the last years that something like this happens because of the approaching playoff system. I hope NIU takes advantage of it. It seems people are pushing this game to the side and ready to call it a blow out. Not so fast my friend. Hope comes in the form of Jordan Lynch and the Clemson game that Florida State won. Although they beat the Tigers, Clemson's quarterback Tajh Boyd presents similar problems for defenses that Lynch has. Both are more than capable runners and can throw the ball when called upon. Boyd threw for 237 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 44 rushing yards before the Tigers fell. If Lynch can have the kind of patience he displayed in the MAC title game, I think he can have success against this FSU defense. I do think some of the bounces and "lucky" plays will have to go NIU's way to win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Apart from the Fiesta Bowl (Oregon vs Kansas State), this is the bowl that you should tune into as far as the BCS is concerned.
BCS Bowl Matchups as it should be
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Kansas State - They got this one right in what should be the best bowl game out of all of them, BCS or not
Orange Bowl: Florida vs Florida State - Rivalry game in a BCS bowl? Taking place in Miami? Yes please. All the legends would come back for that game. It would be great for the sport
Sugar Bowl: Stanford vs NIU - This would be a great game in my opinion with superstar Lynch going against freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan in a surprisingly evenly matched game. Also, putting this game in New Orleans would get rid of Stanford's closeness to the Rose Bowl and put NIU in a dome (see MAC Championship for NIU's success in domes)
Rose Bowl: Texas A&M vs Georgia - Regardless of who is playing, the Rose Bowl is always a big deal, so why not let the two SEC titans battle it out. Being in separate divisions kept them from playing each other this year. Manziel and veteran Aaron Murray would get to duke it out in what would be an exciting, high scoring affair
Matty O
Monday, November 5, 2012
Why You Should Get Behind The Colts
In sports, people are always looking for that feel good story. A team rising up against the odds to overcome some insurmountable obstacle. There seems to be one team almost every year that, from a neutral perspective, you can cheer for. The team this year is the Indianapolis Colts.
Before discussing their off the field story, let's examine their play on the field. I mentioned obstacles before, but that was only brushing the surface of this team. Their 2011-12 campaign saw their franchise quarterback miss the entire season, caused their head coach to get fired, and saw their season reach an 0-13 mark (they finished 2-14). Their defense, while never great, looked horrendous at times even with the likes of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both four time pro bowlers. Their star wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a down year, leading some to question if his skills had declined as rumors circulated that he might leave the team, especially if Peyton Manning left.
As if turned out, with the Colts holding the number one pick in the draft, Manning decided to leave. Owner Jim Irsay hired a new head coach in Chuck Pagano and a new GM in Ryan Grigson. Wayne, surprisingly decided to stay to help lead in this new era for the Colts. The Colts selected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who was considered by many to be the most NFL ready of all the quarterbacks in his draft. While he may have had the skills, his players around him were a disaster. Jeff Saturday, Peyton's longtime, Pro Bowl center, left to join Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Outside of Wayne, they did not have a decent or known wide receiver on their roster. Their starting running back was Donald Brown, entering his fourth year in the league but never eclipsing more than 645 yards or 5 touchdowns in one season.
The Disney movie script for this is they went undefeated and Luck threw for a record number of yards. Well, not quite. it certainly did not help to face the Bears in Chicago for Luck's first game, especially seeing how well their defense has played this year. Having said that, even in a 41-21 loss, Luck did not look lost out there. Sure he threw three interceptions, but Tony Romo threw five against this defense. Luck threw for 309 yards, more yards than Romo, Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford threw against the Bears this year. There was a fair amount of pressure on him throughout the game, but he stayed strong in the pocket and made some good, strong throws. So while it might not have been Cam Newton's 422 yard rookie debut, it still showed signs of promise and growth.
The Colts first win came the following week against the Minnesota Vikings. While passing yards might have been his most impressive stat in his debut, his zero turnovers were the most impressive part in the Vikings game. He only threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns, but paced the game and seemed in more control than a rookie should be. In the meantime, he became comfortable with Wayne to the tune of 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also discovered a formidable number two receiver in Donnie Avery who gained 111 yards on nine catches. The Vikings had actually tied the game with 31 seconds left, setting up Luck's first game winning drive. He was able to get the Colts into field goal range as Adam Vinatieri knocked in a 53 yard field goal for the win.
After a heartbreaking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (Jags scored an 80 yard TD pass with 45 seconds left) the team received more bad news. New head coach Chuck Pagano had been diagnosed with promyelocytic leukemia and would be undergoing treatment at a nearby hospital. It is a serious condition with a high risk of remission, which could cause treatment to last for years. The players had rallied around Pagano, as he was able to keep the ship afloat even after the loss of Peyton Manning while installing a new coaching scheme. Unlike the Sean Payton situation in New Orleans, the Colts rallied around their situation and gave an emotional effort the likes of which had not been seen in a while.
Their next game after this incident was against the Green Bay Packers. The Pack were 2-2 going into that game, but their record was slightly misleading. They had played arguably the best defense at the time in the 49ers and lost their first game. Then they beat the Bears pretty soundly with the final score being 23-10. They followed that up with a loss in a hostile Seattle environment on Monday Night Football and may or may not have been robbed by the replacement officials. Their game before the Colts saw them fend off a desperate Saints team that seemed to give everything they had. The Saints came up short, however, 28-27.
Enter the Colts. Even though the emotion and desire to win for their coach was there, this seemed like quite the task. The Packers offense had struggled early on, but looked like they hit their stride against the Saints. Some might say that everyone can score on the Saints, but it's not like the Colts defense was doing all that well either. They let the Bears hang 41, the Vikings to post 20, and the lowly Jags to post 22. Now they faced MVP Aaron Rodgers who puts up video game numbers in the passing game. Oh boy.
The game started out like everyone thought. The Packers dominated on both sides of the ball and led 21-3 at half. Then in the third quarter, the Colts had an offensive explosion. Luck threw a TD and ran for one in the quarter as the defense posted a shutout. Add on a field goal and it was a 21-19 game. The Colts managed to actually grab the lead with a fourth quarter field goal, but Rodgers had the response. After a long Alex Green run, Rodgers found James Jones for an eight yard TD, although they missed the two point conversion. It was Packers 27, Colts 22 with 4:30 left to play.
Luck then drove the Colts 80 yards while missing only three out of eleven passes on the drive, ending in a four yard touchdown to Reggie Wayne. The crowd was going crazy, especially after Donald Brown was able to run in the two point conversion. The Colts now led 30-27 with 35 seconds left. Unfortunately, that's about all the time Rodgers needs. He went from his own 20 to the Colts 33 in three plays, not counting the spike to stop the clock. This set up a Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal, a lengthy kick but not unreasonable in the domed stadium of the Colts. Instead Crosby missed it wide right and the Colts won an improbable victory. After the game, they found out that Pagano had been released from the hospital and watched their win from the comfort of his own home. A great ending to a great day.
Fast forward to today. The Colts sit at 5-3 and are the 5th overall seed in the AFC. Bet no one saw that coming. Unfortunately Houston plays in their division so they would likely need to secure a wild card spot to get into the playoffs. Is it possible? Given the recent play of Andrew Luck (passed for a rookie record 433 yards yesterday against the Dolphins) I wouldn't count them out. Their remaining schedule is at Jacksonville, at New England, home against Buffalo, at Detroit, home against Tennessee, then a home and home with Houston with a game at Kansas City sandwiched between. The New England and two Houston games would be the only ones where it might be a stretch to pick them. Still, New England has lost to Arizona this year and the Houston games are at the end of the year. This may result in Houston resting some of their starters if they have the number one seed in the AFC locked up.
Not just that, but Coach Pagano was well enough to be able to give an emotional post game speech to his players in the locker room after their Dolphin victory. Doesn't get much better than that. So if you're not with the Bears, given up on the Cowboys (myself), or a diehard Jaguars fan, consider rooting for these guys. Luck is making people ask "RG-Who?" and their story with their coach is awesome. They might not win the Super Bowl, but they could have more fans than any team in the playoffs.
Before discussing their off the field story, let's examine their play on the field. I mentioned obstacles before, but that was only brushing the surface of this team. Their 2011-12 campaign saw their franchise quarterback miss the entire season, caused their head coach to get fired, and saw their season reach an 0-13 mark (they finished 2-14). Their defense, while never great, looked horrendous at times even with the likes of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both four time pro bowlers. Their star wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a down year, leading some to question if his skills had declined as rumors circulated that he might leave the team, especially if Peyton Manning left.
As if turned out, with the Colts holding the number one pick in the draft, Manning decided to leave. Owner Jim Irsay hired a new head coach in Chuck Pagano and a new GM in Ryan Grigson. Wayne, surprisingly decided to stay to help lead in this new era for the Colts. The Colts selected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who was considered by many to be the most NFL ready of all the quarterbacks in his draft. While he may have had the skills, his players around him were a disaster. Jeff Saturday, Peyton's longtime, Pro Bowl center, left to join Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Outside of Wayne, they did not have a decent or known wide receiver on their roster. Their starting running back was Donald Brown, entering his fourth year in the league but never eclipsing more than 645 yards or 5 touchdowns in one season.
The Disney movie script for this is they went undefeated and Luck threw for a record number of yards. Well, not quite. it certainly did not help to face the Bears in Chicago for Luck's first game, especially seeing how well their defense has played this year. Having said that, even in a 41-21 loss, Luck did not look lost out there. Sure he threw three interceptions, but Tony Romo threw five against this defense. Luck threw for 309 yards, more yards than Romo, Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford threw against the Bears this year. There was a fair amount of pressure on him throughout the game, but he stayed strong in the pocket and made some good, strong throws. So while it might not have been Cam Newton's 422 yard rookie debut, it still showed signs of promise and growth.
The Colts first win came the following week against the Minnesota Vikings. While passing yards might have been his most impressive stat in his debut, his zero turnovers were the most impressive part in the Vikings game. He only threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns, but paced the game and seemed in more control than a rookie should be. In the meantime, he became comfortable with Wayne to the tune of 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also discovered a formidable number two receiver in Donnie Avery who gained 111 yards on nine catches. The Vikings had actually tied the game with 31 seconds left, setting up Luck's first game winning drive. He was able to get the Colts into field goal range as Adam Vinatieri knocked in a 53 yard field goal for the win.
After a heartbreaking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (Jags scored an 80 yard TD pass with 45 seconds left) the team received more bad news. New head coach Chuck Pagano had been diagnosed with promyelocytic leukemia and would be undergoing treatment at a nearby hospital. It is a serious condition with a high risk of remission, which could cause treatment to last for years. The players had rallied around Pagano, as he was able to keep the ship afloat even after the loss of Peyton Manning while installing a new coaching scheme. Unlike the Sean Payton situation in New Orleans, the Colts rallied around their situation and gave an emotional effort the likes of which had not been seen in a while.
Their next game after this incident was against the Green Bay Packers. The Pack were 2-2 going into that game, but their record was slightly misleading. They had played arguably the best defense at the time in the 49ers and lost their first game. Then they beat the Bears pretty soundly with the final score being 23-10. They followed that up with a loss in a hostile Seattle environment on Monday Night Football and may or may not have been robbed by the replacement officials. Their game before the Colts saw them fend off a desperate Saints team that seemed to give everything they had. The Saints came up short, however, 28-27.
Enter the Colts. Even though the emotion and desire to win for their coach was there, this seemed like quite the task. The Packers offense had struggled early on, but looked like they hit their stride against the Saints. Some might say that everyone can score on the Saints, but it's not like the Colts defense was doing all that well either. They let the Bears hang 41, the Vikings to post 20, and the lowly Jags to post 22. Now they faced MVP Aaron Rodgers who puts up video game numbers in the passing game. Oh boy.
The game started out like everyone thought. The Packers dominated on both sides of the ball and led 21-3 at half. Then in the third quarter, the Colts had an offensive explosion. Luck threw a TD and ran for one in the quarter as the defense posted a shutout. Add on a field goal and it was a 21-19 game. The Colts managed to actually grab the lead with a fourth quarter field goal, but Rodgers had the response. After a long Alex Green run, Rodgers found James Jones for an eight yard TD, although they missed the two point conversion. It was Packers 27, Colts 22 with 4:30 left to play.
Luck then drove the Colts 80 yards while missing only three out of eleven passes on the drive, ending in a four yard touchdown to Reggie Wayne. The crowd was going crazy, especially after Donald Brown was able to run in the two point conversion. The Colts now led 30-27 with 35 seconds left. Unfortunately, that's about all the time Rodgers needs. He went from his own 20 to the Colts 33 in three plays, not counting the spike to stop the clock. This set up a Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal, a lengthy kick but not unreasonable in the domed stadium of the Colts. Instead Crosby missed it wide right and the Colts won an improbable victory. After the game, they found out that Pagano had been released from the hospital and watched their win from the comfort of his own home. A great ending to a great day.
Fast forward to today. The Colts sit at 5-3 and are the 5th overall seed in the AFC. Bet no one saw that coming. Unfortunately Houston plays in their division so they would likely need to secure a wild card spot to get into the playoffs. Is it possible? Given the recent play of Andrew Luck (passed for a rookie record 433 yards yesterday against the Dolphins) I wouldn't count them out. Their remaining schedule is at Jacksonville, at New England, home against Buffalo, at Detroit, home against Tennessee, then a home and home with Houston with a game at Kansas City sandwiched between. The New England and two Houston games would be the only ones where it might be a stretch to pick them. Still, New England has lost to Arizona this year and the Houston games are at the end of the year. This may result in Houston resting some of their starters if they have the number one seed in the AFC locked up.
Not just that, but Coach Pagano was well enough to be able to give an emotional post game speech to his players in the locker room after their Dolphin victory. Doesn't get much better than that. So if you're not with the Bears, given up on the Cowboys (myself), or a diehard Jaguars fan, consider rooting for these guys. Luck is making people ask "RG-Who?" and their story with their coach is awesome. They might not win the Super Bowl, but they could have more fans than any team in the playoffs.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Pro vs College
I was watching Mike and Mike this morning and they were discussing an interesting notion of the best college team in a sport going up against the worst pro team in a sport. They brought up some great points and reasoning on who might win. The two sports they covered were basketball and football.
This whole discussion stemmed from comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier made when he claimed Alabama, the number one team in the country, could beat some NFL teams and claimed Vegas odds makers might favor Alabama by a bit. Hold on there. Vegas odds makers actually did, and after analyzing everything, gave the Jaguars a 24 point spread. That is absolutely ridiculous and whoever made that spread should not be making spreads anymore. The best point Mike and Mike brought up is the fact that the NFL is such a team game. An NFL roster is made up of 53 people. Obviously there are 11 starters on defense, and 11 on offense. The issue is that most of those starters do not play the whole game. If you include special teams, pretty much everyone that suits up for a game, barring injury, will play.
That is one of the main issues. I suppose you could make a case that Alabama's starters could hang for a series or two against the Jags starters, but Alabama's reserves would get destroyed by the Jags reserves. Realize the Jags players get NFL type workouts, professional diets, and do this for a living. As good as this Alabama team is, many of them won't sniff the pros. Starting quarterback AJ McCarron has struggled in the past against elite college defenses such as LSU. Realize that Aaron Rodgers recently struggled against the "bad" Jags defense. McCarron and Rodgers aren't even in the same class yet, to cover a 24 point spread, McCarron will have to lead at least a few drives down the field. Not going to happen.
The last difference with football is the sheer size of players. The NFL and NCAA have a rule in place to keep kids in college for a longer period before they go to the pros. This is smart for safety reasons. There are certainly some big, scary players in college. But the scariest linebacker in college couldn't hold a candle to Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis. These college kids would get crushed. Quarterbacks are usually the ones getting all the publicity about staying in school, but I think they are the ones that are able to come out earlier. They really don't need to bulk up and should stay in school only to either achieve personal goals, earn their degree, or get better mentally. All other positions should stay in school all four years to have extra years with their lifting program and to bulk up before they start seeing the likes of Lewis and Willis running full speed to take their head off.
Last year's basketball situation, however, provides a different story. That Kentucky team last year was probably the best college basketball team I've ever seen. I understand that, unlike potentially Alabama football this year, they did not go undefeated. They lost in the SEC tournament, which I still can't explain, and in Indiana. The Indiana game I can forgive them for because that was one of the most loud and hostile environments I had ever seen. Indiana also turned out to be a really good squad and gave Kentucky a run for their money in the NCAA tournament before losing in a 102-90 shootout. But look at that score. 100 points! Obviously their defense was shaky that game, but college teams usually only drop triple digits on the Illinois State's of the world. Not a top 20 team. Their starting five was simply scary from a skill standpoint.
Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2 overall pick), Terrence Jones (#18 overall pick), Marquis Teague (#29 overall pick, Go Bulls), and Doron Lamb (#42 overall pick). Darius Miller, one of their bench players, was also taken as the number 46 overall pick. Davis was so good that he actually played on the US Olympic team. Even though this was more so the result of injuries to other big men, he still contributed and made a great first impression playing with the big boys. On the flip side of this, you have the Charlotte Bobcats from a year ago.
My goodness what a bad team. The Not Top 10 on Sportscenter just became a Bobcats highlight reel. The best squad they could probably put out there would be DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, and Derrick Brown. To be fair, all these players, except for Brown, were first round draft picks (Brown went in the second round, 40th overall). The problem is they were all selected by the Bobcats. Given Michael Jordan's prowess for drafting busts, it makes the first round thing kind of irrelevant when equating it to actual skill. Mike and Mike were suggesting that unlike football, this matchup would be a playoff like seven game series. I think this actually gives Kentucky a huge advantage.
For those of you that don't watch college basketball, Rupp Arena, where Kentucky plays, is a madhouse. People are gaga for their basketball there and the place is always sold out and rocking no matter who they play. The Bobcats meanwhile, recently offered a deal where fans could purchase this year's season tickets and get next year's for free, just to get more people in the seats. That is an unheard of deal and exemplifies the sorry state the Bobcats are in (personally, if I lived in Charlotte I probably would have gotten in on that deal. A free season of basketball? Insane). I feel that NBA arenas in general are not nearly as raucous or hard to play in as places like Rupp Arena, Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke, or Fogg Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas. I think the Wildcats would actually sweep at home, meaning they would only need to steal one in Charlotte. Although the home court would certainly help, that is not the only thing going for Kentucky.
Unlike football, you don't have to be extremely bulked up to compete at an NBA level. It certainly helps, as Lebron James has shown by becoming more explosive as he gets stronger, but is not a necessity. James did well coming straight out of high school. While this may be an extreme example given James's unique athleticism, the discrepancy is not as great as in football. I think that length is much more important, which Anthony Davis has in spades.
If Kentucky were to win this matchup, I think that is where they do it. Davis inside blocking shots, and using his unique ability to pass and jump shoot, would be the difference. I actually think the Bobcats have favorable matchups with Kemba and Henderson. Both are great slashers and cutters to the basket and can shoot when called upon. Henderson and Kemba are probably the best defensive players on that team as well so they could make it difficult to get the ball to Davis or have Gilchrist put up his jump shot. I still think that Kentucky would be able to exploit their other matchups and give Charlotte a hard time.
The final difference between the basketball debate and the football debate is that apart from the starters in basketball, most other guys don't play. In last year's National Championship game against a very good Kansas Jayhawks team, the Wildcats only played three players from their bench. Darius Miller, who was drafted, played 25 minutes, while Eloy Vargas and Kyle Wiltjer only played three minutes each. So essentially Kentucky played six people the whole game. Three minutes in basketball is not enough to cause a substantial change in my opinion. Yes a team could go on a run, but as a coach you can slow the game down or limit the amount of times the backups touch the ball. Football is not the same.
I've seen times where a backup offensive lineman comes into a game, gets dominated by the defensive lineman, forces a fumble, and causes a turnover. Special teams could probably expose those problems even more because those players usually are the backups on defense and offense. NFL backups can work over college ones, which I guarantee would cause at least one turnover and terrible field position for the college team, in this case Alabama.
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Jags and Wildcats and not enough to Alabama and Charlotte. Honestly though, Alabama would get blown off the line if they played the Jags and 24 points might be the spread at halftime. I would crank that up to about 50 if you wanted a fair spread for that game. Kentucky-Charlotte would be a much more interesting proposition but given how poorly the Bobcats played and the way Kentucky dominated the college basketball scene last year, it is certainly plausible the Wildcats could pull it off in a seven game series, and certainly in just one game. While the ratings and publicity for those matchups would be great, for now we'll have to settle for Alabama-LSU, Jacksonville-Detroit, Charlotte-Indiana, and Kentucky-Maryland. Enjoy.
Matty O
This whole discussion stemmed from comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier made when he claimed Alabama, the number one team in the country, could beat some NFL teams and claimed Vegas odds makers might favor Alabama by a bit. Hold on there. Vegas odds makers actually did, and after analyzing everything, gave the Jaguars a 24 point spread. That is absolutely ridiculous and whoever made that spread should not be making spreads anymore. The best point Mike and Mike brought up is the fact that the NFL is such a team game. An NFL roster is made up of 53 people. Obviously there are 11 starters on defense, and 11 on offense. The issue is that most of those starters do not play the whole game. If you include special teams, pretty much everyone that suits up for a game, barring injury, will play.
That is one of the main issues. I suppose you could make a case that Alabama's starters could hang for a series or two against the Jags starters, but Alabama's reserves would get destroyed by the Jags reserves. Realize the Jags players get NFL type workouts, professional diets, and do this for a living. As good as this Alabama team is, many of them won't sniff the pros. Starting quarterback AJ McCarron has struggled in the past against elite college defenses such as LSU. Realize that Aaron Rodgers recently struggled against the "bad" Jags defense. McCarron and Rodgers aren't even in the same class yet, to cover a 24 point spread, McCarron will have to lead at least a few drives down the field. Not going to happen.
The last difference with football is the sheer size of players. The NFL and NCAA have a rule in place to keep kids in college for a longer period before they go to the pros. This is smart for safety reasons. There are certainly some big, scary players in college. But the scariest linebacker in college couldn't hold a candle to Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis. These college kids would get crushed. Quarterbacks are usually the ones getting all the publicity about staying in school, but I think they are the ones that are able to come out earlier. They really don't need to bulk up and should stay in school only to either achieve personal goals, earn their degree, or get better mentally. All other positions should stay in school all four years to have extra years with their lifting program and to bulk up before they start seeing the likes of Lewis and Willis running full speed to take their head off.
Last year's basketball situation, however, provides a different story. That Kentucky team last year was probably the best college basketball team I've ever seen. I understand that, unlike potentially Alabama football this year, they did not go undefeated. They lost in the SEC tournament, which I still can't explain, and in Indiana. The Indiana game I can forgive them for because that was one of the most loud and hostile environments I had ever seen. Indiana also turned out to be a really good squad and gave Kentucky a run for their money in the NCAA tournament before losing in a 102-90 shootout. But look at that score. 100 points! Obviously their defense was shaky that game, but college teams usually only drop triple digits on the Illinois State's of the world. Not a top 20 team. Their starting five was simply scary from a skill standpoint.
Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2 overall pick), Terrence Jones (#18 overall pick), Marquis Teague (#29 overall pick, Go Bulls), and Doron Lamb (#42 overall pick). Darius Miller, one of their bench players, was also taken as the number 46 overall pick. Davis was so good that he actually played on the US Olympic team. Even though this was more so the result of injuries to other big men, he still contributed and made a great first impression playing with the big boys. On the flip side of this, you have the Charlotte Bobcats from a year ago.
My goodness what a bad team. The Not Top 10 on Sportscenter just became a Bobcats highlight reel. The best squad they could probably put out there would be DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, and Derrick Brown. To be fair, all these players, except for Brown, were first round draft picks (Brown went in the second round, 40th overall). The problem is they were all selected by the Bobcats. Given Michael Jordan's prowess for drafting busts, it makes the first round thing kind of irrelevant when equating it to actual skill. Mike and Mike were suggesting that unlike football, this matchup would be a playoff like seven game series. I think this actually gives Kentucky a huge advantage.
For those of you that don't watch college basketball, Rupp Arena, where Kentucky plays, is a madhouse. People are gaga for their basketball there and the place is always sold out and rocking no matter who they play. The Bobcats meanwhile, recently offered a deal where fans could purchase this year's season tickets and get next year's for free, just to get more people in the seats. That is an unheard of deal and exemplifies the sorry state the Bobcats are in (personally, if I lived in Charlotte I probably would have gotten in on that deal. A free season of basketball? Insane). I feel that NBA arenas in general are not nearly as raucous or hard to play in as places like Rupp Arena, Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke, or Fogg Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas. I think the Wildcats would actually sweep at home, meaning they would only need to steal one in Charlotte. Although the home court would certainly help, that is not the only thing going for Kentucky.
Unlike football, you don't have to be extremely bulked up to compete at an NBA level. It certainly helps, as Lebron James has shown by becoming more explosive as he gets stronger, but is not a necessity. James did well coming straight out of high school. While this may be an extreme example given James's unique athleticism, the discrepancy is not as great as in football. I think that length is much more important, which Anthony Davis has in spades.
If Kentucky were to win this matchup, I think that is where they do it. Davis inside blocking shots, and using his unique ability to pass and jump shoot, would be the difference. I actually think the Bobcats have favorable matchups with Kemba and Henderson. Both are great slashers and cutters to the basket and can shoot when called upon. Henderson and Kemba are probably the best defensive players on that team as well so they could make it difficult to get the ball to Davis or have Gilchrist put up his jump shot. I still think that Kentucky would be able to exploit their other matchups and give Charlotte a hard time.
The final difference between the basketball debate and the football debate is that apart from the starters in basketball, most other guys don't play. In last year's National Championship game against a very good Kansas Jayhawks team, the Wildcats only played three players from their bench. Darius Miller, who was drafted, played 25 minutes, while Eloy Vargas and Kyle Wiltjer only played three minutes each. So essentially Kentucky played six people the whole game. Three minutes in basketball is not enough to cause a substantial change in my opinion. Yes a team could go on a run, but as a coach you can slow the game down or limit the amount of times the backups touch the ball. Football is not the same.
I've seen times where a backup offensive lineman comes into a game, gets dominated by the defensive lineman, forces a fumble, and causes a turnover. Special teams could probably expose those problems even more because those players usually are the backups on defense and offense. NFL backups can work over college ones, which I guarantee would cause at least one turnover and terrible field position for the college team, in this case Alabama.
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Jags and Wildcats and not enough to Alabama and Charlotte. Honestly though, Alabama would get blown off the line if they played the Jags and 24 points might be the spread at halftime. I would crank that up to about 50 if you wanted a fair spread for that game. Kentucky-Charlotte would be a much more interesting proposition but given how poorly the Bobcats played and the way Kentucky dominated the college basketball scene last year, it is certainly plausible the Wildcats could pull it off in a seven game series, and certainly in just one game. While the ratings and publicity for those matchups would be great, for now we'll have to settle for Alabama-LSU, Jacksonville-Detroit, Charlotte-Indiana, and Kentucky-Maryland. Enjoy.
Matty O
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
30 For 30 Topic Suggestions
For those that don't know, ESPN 30 for 30 is a series of documentaries that focus on a specific topic in sports, often spilling over into society as a whole. Some of the topics covered, and some of my favorite documentaries include analyzing the Steve Bartman incident and the reaction of the fans, Michigan's Fab Five men's basketball team who revolutionized the game on and off the court, and the rivalry between Auburn and Alabama and the dynamic relationship between the two schools. I highly recommend watching any of the documentaries. This is just a list of some topics I hope they cover and I think would make great and compelling stories for sports and non sports fans alike.
Fantasy Football
Any way you look at it, fantasy football is part of the NFL in today's world. They have fantasy experts, shows, and websites dedicated just to looking at the NFL through a fantasy lens. I love playing fantasy football (even though I'm 1-5) and got hooked easily. The stars of The League, a television show about fantasy football, admitted that they were not sure what it was all about before the show, but became engrossed when they were in a league in real life. This documentary could analyze the decision making and risk management that actually goes into it. It could delve into the social aspect of it and compare real life vs fantasy perceptions when it comes to certain players. Perhaps they could chronicle someone like Matthew Berry, a famous and dedicated fantasy expert, to see what goes into placing certain values with players. It would be something that a lot of people could relate to considering the popularity of the sport, and could serve as one of the more fun and upbeat videos in the 30 for 30 series.
Tim Tebow
This is in no way endorsing Tebowmania. No matter what you think about him, his story would make for one heck of a documentary. He is a caring, openly religious, and passionate person in a sport that glorifies flashiness and flamboyancy. His childhood story alone is compelling as he was born in the Philippines and was home schooled. This created an interesting dynamic in high school because he was allowed to choose where he wanted to play, instead of being confined to a certain district. He won a national title as a freshman, became the first sophomore Heisman Trophy winner, won his second national title as a junior, decided to stay for his senior year, and won the Sugar Bowl in his last game at Florida. Add in his memorable speech after Florida was upset by Ole Miss in 2008 (the year they won the national title) and you have a full script right there. But wait, there's more.
His pro career has been quite the spectacle. There was a constant controversy in Denver over Kyle Orton and him which led to people taking sides with either "believing Tebow can be an NFL quarterback" or "believing Tebow cannot be an NFL quarterback." This dynamic would be interesting to delve into given the pure athleticism and passion Tebow brought along with his unconventional throwing motion and lack of the "ideal" NFL QB style. Even after leading the Broncos to the playoffs in 2011 and beating the Steelers in the opening round, they essentially kicked him out in favor of Peyton Manning coming off of neck surgery. I'm sure the people at ESPN could get how Tebow truly felt when the sweepstakes for Manning was going on, and when he chose Denver. The Jets project is still too early to report on, but what a documentary that would be.
Fan Violence
I only got this idea recently because of all the stories I have read about fan violence this year in the NFL. A Bears fan was stabbed to death in Jacksonville when the Bears played the Jags. Type in "NFL fan fight" on Youtube and a whole host of results come up. I understand being passionate about your team and hot headed when they lose. Trust me. I'm a Cowboys fan and I feel that way every time Romo drops back to pass. But c'mon sports fans. I think this documentary would be helpful as well because people could see these actions and discover how frequent and brutal some of these attacks are. Not only that, but they bring a bad reputation to the team that you are supporting. No team of fan base (well, maybe Philadelphia) wants to be known as brutal, hostile people. You can be hostile with noise and insults, but to assault someone because he or she likes a different team is ridiculous and pathetic. ESPN should get some testimonies from some of the fans involved in these fights, especially the extreme cases. I'm sure it would be quite emotional, but send a strong message to the fans.
September 28, 2011
For those that don't know, this was the most insane day of baseball and perhaps sport that I have ever witnessed. Nothing made sense. Craziness ruled. The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox completed their historic collapses to miss the playoffs despite having comfortable leads heading into the final month of the season. The Red Sox loss was even more devastating given the scenario. They had the luxury of facing the last place Orioles and were up 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th with two outs. Jonathan Papelbon, a proven closer, gave up the game tying and game winning runs to sink the Sox.
The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, were getting crushed by the Yankees, who had nothing to play for. They were down 7-0 going into the 8th when things got out of control. They rattled off six in that inning and scored the game tying run in the bottom of the 9th. Then, in the 12th inning, the Rays completed their comeback and clinched the final AL wild card just moments after the Red Sox lost.
The Braves gave up a 3-1 lead, allowing the go ahead run in the 9th to lose 4-3. The Cardinals played the lowly Astros and won comfortably, earning them a playoff spot. For those that saw what transpired, they will never forget it. It was unbelievable not just from a baseball perspective, but from an entertainment perspective. This would make for one of the most intense and edge of your seat documentaries in this series. This is one that I think will eventually be made because of the sheer excitement and unpredictability that day displayed.
Matty O.
Fantasy Football
Any way you look at it, fantasy football is part of the NFL in today's world. They have fantasy experts, shows, and websites dedicated just to looking at the NFL through a fantasy lens. I love playing fantasy football (even though I'm 1-5) and got hooked easily. The stars of The League, a television show about fantasy football, admitted that they were not sure what it was all about before the show, but became engrossed when they were in a league in real life. This documentary could analyze the decision making and risk management that actually goes into it. It could delve into the social aspect of it and compare real life vs fantasy perceptions when it comes to certain players. Perhaps they could chronicle someone like Matthew Berry, a famous and dedicated fantasy expert, to see what goes into placing certain values with players. It would be something that a lot of people could relate to considering the popularity of the sport, and could serve as one of the more fun and upbeat videos in the 30 for 30 series.
Tim Tebow
This is in no way endorsing Tebowmania. No matter what you think about him, his story would make for one heck of a documentary. He is a caring, openly religious, and passionate person in a sport that glorifies flashiness and flamboyancy. His childhood story alone is compelling as he was born in the Philippines and was home schooled. This created an interesting dynamic in high school because he was allowed to choose where he wanted to play, instead of being confined to a certain district. He won a national title as a freshman, became the first sophomore Heisman Trophy winner, won his second national title as a junior, decided to stay for his senior year, and won the Sugar Bowl in his last game at Florida. Add in his memorable speech after Florida was upset by Ole Miss in 2008 (the year they won the national title) and you have a full script right there. But wait, there's more.
His pro career has been quite the spectacle. There was a constant controversy in Denver over Kyle Orton and him which led to people taking sides with either "believing Tebow can be an NFL quarterback" or "believing Tebow cannot be an NFL quarterback." This dynamic would be interesting to delve into given the pure athleticism and passion Tebow brought along with his unconventional throwing motion and lack of the "ideal" NFL QB style. Even after leading the Broncos to the playoffs in 2011 and beating the Steelers in the opening round, they essentially kicked him out in favor of Peyton Manning coming off of neck surgery. I'm sure the people at ESPN could get how Tebow truly felt when the sweepstakes for Manning was going on, and when he chose Denver. The Jets project is still too early to report on, but what a documentary that would be.
Fan Violence
I only got this idea recently because of all the stories I have read about fan violence this year in the NFL. A Bears fan was stabbed to death in Jacksonville when the Bears played the Jags. Type in "NFL fan fight" on Youtube and a whole host of results come up. I understand being passionate about your team and hot headed when they lose. Trust me. I'm a Cowboys fan and I feel that way every time Romo drops back to pass. But c'mon sports fans. I think this documentary would be helpful as well because people could see these actions and discover how frequent and brutal some of these attacks are. Not only that, but they bring a bad reputation to the team that you are supporting. No team of fan base (well, maybe Philadelphia) wants to be known as brutal, hostile people. You can be hostile with noise and insults, but to assault someone because he or she likes a different team is ridiculous and pathetic. ESPN should get some testimonies from some of the fans involved in these fights, especially the extreme cases. I'm sure it would be quite emotional, but send a strong message to the fans.
September 28, 2011
For those that don't know, this was the most insane day of baseball and perhaps sport that I have ever witnessed. Nothing made sense. Craziness ruled. The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox completed their historic collapses to miss the playoffs despite having comfortable leads heading into the final month of the season. The Red Sox loss was even more devastating given the scenario. They had the luxury of facing the last place Orioles and were up 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th with two outs. Jonathan Papelbon, a proven closer, gave up the game tying and game winning runs to sink the Sox.
The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, were getting crushed by the Yankees, who had nothing to play for. They were down 7-0 going into the 8th when things got out of control. They rattled off six in that inning and scored the game tying run in the bottom of the 9th. Then, in the 12th inning, the Rays completed their comeback and clinched the final AL wild card just moments after the Red Sox lost.
The Braves gave up a 3-1 lead, allowing the go ahead run in the 9th to lose 4-3. The Cardinals played the lowly Astros and won comfortably, earning them a playoff spot. For those that saw what transpired, they will never forget it. It was unbelievable not just from a baseball perspective, but from an entertainment perspective. This would make for one of the most intense and edge of your seat documentaries in this series. This is one that I think will eventually be made because of the sheer excitement and unpredictability that day displayed.
Matty O.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
To NFL Fans: You're Hooked
On the heels of that madness in Seattle last night, there are people claiming that this is the start of the downfall of the NFL. People are claiming they will stop watching the games. Really? Have fun Sunday afternoon watching re-runs of some horrible TV show on WGN.
What people don't realize and what the league does is that the NFL has become so powerful and significant in our culture that it would take something revolutionary to bring it down. My Facebook and Twitter were blowing up last night about people saying the NFL is garbage now, but I know come Monday that I'll see plenty of "Bears football, YAY" or "Can't wait for the Bears game 2nite" updates. You'll still watch. Packers fans are pissed, but I'll bet all of them will still watch their game next week. The unfortunate part about this situation is that the fans, even in this age of social media, can do nothing about it. In fact, all this publicity is helping the league. It has become such an issue that even non-sports people are commenting on it, leading to more publicity and exposure for the league, and perhaps even snagging non-viewers that want to see what all this commotion is about.
Without causing too much controversy, this situation reminds me a bit of this upcoming election and the overall political system in the US (if you have strong political views on either candidate, just skip these next two paragraphs). Similar to the NFL, we know the problem; the economy is in the dump, our deficit is increasing, and unemployment rates are still high. Similar to the NFL, the government has become such a behemoth that their power has become too great. In my opinion, similar to the NFL, the two options being presented to us as presidential candidates are unacceptable. Do you expect either one to make our economy flourish and fix our debt? I don't. Why? Because similar to the NFL, the people in power are too untouchable.
Roger Goodell can receive all the hate mail you want to send him, but in the end people will still watch the games on TV and pay their hard earned money to see the game. The NFL and its executives will not see a change in their lifestyles. Lobbyists and politicians in DC have zero motivation to look out for the well being of us (the people) so long as their agendas are met and they get paid. Obama can be the NFL with replacement refs and Romney and be no NFL (or vice versa). Both are options that will not fix the problems we have, but for now, like the NFL, we are forced to settle for one or the other. In politics, it is going to take a drastic deviation from the norm by a politician or someone in power to truly shake up the system to focus on the problem.
In the NFL, it is going to take something drastic by an owner, team, and/or coach to make a significant impact on the league. Even then, it might not be enough. If a coach gets out of line with replacement officials, BAM! they get a fine slapped on them or potentially a suspension (Bill Belichick). Owners will refuse to get caught up in it because their teams are still profitable. "I'm free this weekend. Want to go to the (insert favorite team here) game?" "No, I'm not too fond of the replacement officials and I think the product on the field suffers." That response would never happen. We are essentially lemmings when it comes to the NFL. I'll even admit I suffer from the same thing.
The final call last night was atrocious along with many other penalties (or non penalties) along the way. But I'm still going to watch next week. Had that TD sent the game to overtime, I would have still watched it. There was a point in the middle of the Eagles-Cardinals game this weekend where the refs were taking too long so I changed the channel...to another NFL game. Even after last night, I would still rather watch a Cowboys-Redskins game with replacement refs than an Angels or White Sox game even though both teams are battling for a baseball playoff spot. Viewership will still remain high for the NFL, and the league will still be intact. So what can they do?
Many people might have already turned off their TVs, but after the TD last night, an extra point play still had to be run. There was madness on the field obviously and many of the Packers and Seahawks had already left. Mike McCarthy, head coach of the Packers and the ultimate professional last night, brought his team back out for the play even though they had just been robbed of a win. Along those same lines, could we see an entire team strike? Remember, there needs to be something drastic for the league to change. Perhaps prior to a game or right after an inexplicably bad call, the team just decides they're through. They pack up their stuff and head to the locker room. This would obviously result in a loss for said team, as well as unhappy fans, and fines and/or suspensions handed down from the league office. A unified agreement by two teams in one game would be even better. Something as drastic as that, while not exactly feasible, is an example of something that would need to be done.
Small signs of unity such as perhaps pre-game shirts that have sayings supporting the real NFL refs won't do the trick. Twitter hash tags are useless. Referee memes, while amusing, will only get a slight chuckle from the general public, a hilarious belly laugh from Roger Goodell, and do nothing beyond that. Until a significant portion of fans decide to boycott the games and viewership, there is nothing that can be done. So next Monday night, before the Bears game, you'll receive the weekly question of "Are You Ready For Some Football?" Are you ready for some terrible calls? Are you ready for more replacement officials? Are you ready for your social media feeds to be consumed by this topic? No, but where will you be? That's right, on your couch, your HDTV turned to ESPN to watch the Bears and Cowboys vs the refs. Goodell's got us; hook, line, and sinker. Long live the NFL.
Matty O
What people don't realize and what the league does is that the NFL has become so powerful and significant in our culture that it would take something revolutionary to bring it down. My Facebook and Twitter were blowing up last night about people saying the NFL is garbage now, but I know come Monday that I'll see plenty of "Bears football, YAY" or "Can't wait for the Bears game 2nite" updates. You'll still watch. Packers fans are pissed, but I'll bet all of them will still watch their game next week. The unfortunate part about this situation is that the fans, even in this age of social media, can do nothing about it. In fact, all this publicity is helping the league. It has become such an issue that even non-sports people are commenting on it, leading to more publicity and exposure for the league, and perhaps even snagging non-viewers that want to see what all this commotion is about.
Without causing too much controversy, this situation reminds me a bit of this upcoming election and the overall political system in the US (if you have strong political views on either candidate, just skip these next two paragraphs). Similar to the NFL, we know the problem; the economy is in the dump, our deficit is increasing, and unemployment rates are still high. Similar to the NFL, the government has become such a behemoth that their power has become too great. In my opinion, similar to the NFL, the two options being presented to us as presidential candidates are unacceptable. Do you expect either one to make our economy flourish and fix our debt? I don't. Why? Because similar to the NFL, the people in power are too untouchable.
Roger Goodell can receive all the hate mail you want to send him, but in the end people will still watch the games on TV and pay their hard earned money to see the game. The NFL and its executives will not see a change in their lifestyles. Lobbyists and politicians in DC have zero motivation to look out for the well being of us (the people) so long as their agendas are met and they get paid. Obama can be the NFL with replacement refs and Romney and be no NFL (or vice versa). Both are options that will not fix the problems we have, but for now, like the NFL, we are forced to settle for one or the other. In politics, it is going to take a drastic deviation from the norm by a politician or someone in power to truly shake up the system to focus on the problem.
In the NFL, it is going to take something drastic by an owner, team, and/or coach to make a significant impact on the league. Even then, it might not be enough. If a coach gets out of line with replacement officials, BAM! they get a fine slapped on them or potentially a suspension (Bill Belichick). Owners will refuse to get caught up in it because their teams are still profitable. "I'm free this weekend. Want to go to the (insert favorite team here) game?" "No, I'm not too fond of the replacement officials and I think the product on the field suffers." That response would never happen. We are essentially lemmings when it comes to the NFL. I'll even admit I suffer from the same thing.
The final call last night was atrocious along with many other penalties (or non penalties) along the way. But I'm still going to watch next week. Had that TD sent the game to overtime, I would have still watched it. There was a point in the middle of the Eagles-Cardinals game this weekend where the refs were taking too long so I changed the channel...to another NFL game. Even after last night, I would still rather watch a Cowboys-Redskins game with replacement refs than an Angels or White Sox game even though both teams are battling for a baseball playoff spot. Viewership will still remain high for the NFL, and the league will still be intact. So what can they do?
Many people might have already turned off their TVs, but after the TD last night, an extra point play still had to be run. There was madness on the field obviously and many of the Packers and Seahawks had already left. Mike McCarthy, head coach of the Packers and the ultimate professional last night, brought his team back out for the play even though they had just been robbed of a win. Along those same lines, could we see an entire team strike? Remember, there needs to be something drastic for the league to change. Perhaps prior to a game or right after an inexplicably bad call, the team just decides they're through. They pack up their stuff and head to the locker room. This would obviously result in a loss for said team, as well as unhappy fans, and fines and/or suspensions handed down from the league office. A unified agreement by two teams in one game would be even better. Something as drastic as that, while not exactly feasible, is an example of something that would need to be done.
Small signs of unity such as perhaps pre-game shirts that have sayings supporting the real NFL refs won't do the trick. Twitter hash tags are useless. Referee memes, while amusing, will only get a slight chuckle from the general public, a hilarious belly laugh from Roger Goodell, and do nothing beyond that. Until a significant portion of fans decide to boycott the games and viewership, there is nothing that can be done. So next Monday night, before the Bears game, you'll receive the weekly question of "Are You Ready For Some Football?" Are you ready for some terrible calls? Are you ready for more replacement officials? Are you ready for your social media feeds to be consumed by this topic? No, but where will you be? That's right, on your couch, your HDTV turned to ESPN to watch the Bears and Cowboys vs the refs. Goodell's got us; hook, line, and sinker. Long live the NFL.
Matty O
Friday, September 21, 2012
Lay Off The Refs
"Terrible call!" "These guys are taking forever!" "Hey, isn't that guy a Saints fan?" These are just a few of the things that people are saying about these new replacement refs through the first two weeks of the regular season. Players, coaches, and fans are all yelling at them, criticizing their every call. The commentators joke about them when they are reviewing a play as slow-mo replay shows the refs were wrong. Realize, however, the situation they are being put in.
Labor negotiations with the 'real' refs had been going on all summer, but the dispute with the league was never resolved resulting in the situation the NFL has on its hands. Just like the players, refs need time to prepare and train to acquire the skill to call a fair NFL game. Think of this scenario like the lockout from last year. The players looked rusty the first couple weeks as the lack of a true off-season was pointed to as the reason for injuries and poor play. These refs also have a lack of preparation which may be the source of the complaints. Although I am defending them, I will admit that their calls have been shaky at best. They awarded a fourth timeout, have taken abnormally long discussing penalties, thrown late flags, and made bad calls. But really, did you expect perfection?
Did you expect these new refs, who officiated at other levels or had different jobs entirely, to replace trained NFL level refs without a hiccup? If you did, you severely underestimate the expertise NFL refs have. To be honest, these replacement refs have made good calls. There have been many times that I've been watching a broadcast, they will show the replay, and the commentators will say, "Yea, that is a good call." They still call holding, hands to the face, pass interference, and any other penalty you don't think your team ever commits. The late flags are certainly an issue, as these refs seem more swayed by players' reactions than the locked out refs. But flag or no flag, the public would find something to criticize these refs about.
Here is the main conflict of interest I see. Fans, coaches, and players want the right call. These refs are not as used to the speed of the game in the NFL nor the crew and other refs they are working with (important from a trust, communication, and familiarity standpoint). This causes them to take more time. Fans, coaches, and players also want the calls as fast as possible. Sorry, that's just not going to happen. In my opinion, if the refs get the call right, take all the time you need. While there have been a few instances of lengthy discussions, most of the calls are made within a reasonable time frame. So maybe the discussion goes too fast and the ref calls the penalty on the wrong person or gets the yardage and/or down mixed up. Then the whole stadium is in an uproar about how ludicrous and inept these refs are. These refs must have come from Northwest South Dakota State Tech University (sorry to readers from this made up school) and can't tie their own shoes. People need to accept the situation for what is it and decide if they prefer a faster game with more chance of inaccuracy or a slower game with greater integrity. As it stands now, we can't have both.
Ironically, I think that if or when the regular officials come back, that they will be under the same microscope these refs are. The replacement refs are being scrutinized so harshly because it is a deviation from the norm. When the regular refs come back, their performance from the first week will be judged based on the weeks the replacement refs just officiated. People will want to see is there really a difference? If a regular ref messes up, what will the reaction be? People will probably blame it on rust and be glad to have the officials back, even though that same mistake could be made by a replacement ref and they would be harassed. What if the regular officials have a string of bad incidents early on when they come back to work? That would be embarrassing for the NFL. Even after a silly labor dispute, the real refs still can't get the calls right.
This is why the real NFL refs have it so good. Leverage, boys and girls, is at an all time high for them. If there is this much media and NFL team shredding of these refs after two weeks, imagine what it will be like come week 5 or 6 or 7. Outspoken and respected (key word) players like Ray Lewis have already spoken out about the refs. When they speak, players, coaches, and fans listen. Unfortunately, I see a breaking point where the replacement refs have a bad week and all hell breaks lose. Players and coaches will go off on the refs and the league for not getting something done. Heck, there might even be calls for replacements for the replacements. The public will join the real referee's fight for a better contract and Roger Goodell could see all areas of the league targeting him for what has happened. Since the officiating is being viewed negatively in the public eye, the NFL might even start losing casual fans. Fans that will watch a game if it is on, but not if it takes four hours or bad calls are being made left and right.
This is a very slippery slope the league is headed down. Are these replacements the best refs we've seen? No. But given the circumstances, they're not doing that bad. But next time you're yelling at the TV screen or updating your Twitter or Facebook with death threats to these officials, you might want to spend that energy attacking the league. Tweeting Roger Goodell will go a longer way than arguing over a call that was just made. It's done, it's a penalty. Now sit back as the ref faces the wrong way, calls a seven yard holding penalty, and calls it on #14 Drew Brees of the Vikings. First downVikings Bears Saints those guys over there.
Matty O
Labor negotiations with the 'real' refs had been going on all summer, but the dispute with the league was never resolved resulting in the situation the NFL has on its hands. Just like the players, refs need time to prepare and train to acquire the skill to call a fair NFL game. Think of this scenario like the lockout from last year. The players looked rusty the first couple weeks as the lack of a true off-season was pointed to as the reason for injuries and poor play. These refs also have a lack of preparation which may be the source of the complaints. Although I am defending them, I will admit that their calls have been shaky at best. They awarded a fourth timeout, have taken abnormally long discussing penalties, thrown late flags, and made bad calls. But really, did you expect perfection?
Did you expect these new refs, who officiated at other levels or had different jobs entirely, to replace trained NFL level refs without a hiccup? If you did, you severely underestimate the expertise NFL refs have. To be honest, these replacement refs have made good calls. There have been many times that I've been watching a broadcast, they will show the replay, and the commentators will say, "Yea, that is a good call." They still call holding, hands to the face, pass interference, and any other penalty you don't think your team ever commits. The late flags are certainly an issue, as these refs seem more swayed by players' reactions than the locked out refs. But flag or no flag, the public would find something to criticize these refs about.
Here is the main conflict of interest I see. Fans, coaches, and players want the right call. These refs are not as used to the speed of the game in the NFL nor the crew and other refs they are working with (important from a trust, communication, and familiarity standpoint). This causes them to take more time. Fans, coaches, and players also want the calls as fast as possible. Sorry, that's just not going to happen. In my opinion, if the refs get the call right, take all the time you need. While there have been a few instances of lengthy discussions, most of the calls are made within a reasonable time frame. So maybe the discussion goes too fast and the ref calls the penalty on the wrong person or gets the yardage and/or down mixed up. Then the whole stadium is in an uproar about how ludicrous and inept these refs are. These refs must have come from Northwest South Dakota State Tech University (sorry to readers from this made up school) and can't tie their own shoes. People need to accept the situation for what is it and decide if they prefer a faster game with more chance of inaccuracy or a slower game with greater integrity. As it stands now, we can't have both.
Ironically, I think that if or when the regular officials come back, that they will be under the same microscope these refs are. The replacement refs are being scrutinized so harshly because it is a deviation from the norm. When the regular refs come back, their performance from the first week will be judged based on the weeks the replacement refs just officiated. People will want to see is there really a difference? If a regular ref messes up, what will the reaction be? People will probably blame it on rust and be glad to have the officials back, even though that same mistake could be made by a replacement ref and they would be harassed. What if the regular officials have a string of bad incidents early on when they come back to work? That would be embarrassing for the NFL. Even after a silly labor dispute, the real refs still can't get the calls right.
This is why the real NFL refs have it so good. Leverage, boys and girls, is at an all time high for them. If there is this much media and NFL team shredding of these refs after two weeks, imagine what it will be like come week 5 or 6 or 7. Outspoken and respected (key word) players like Ray Lewis have already spoken out about the refs. When they speak, players, coaches, and fans listen. Unfortunately, I see a breaking point where the replacement refs have a bad week and all hell breaks lose. Players and coaches will go off on the refs and the league for not getting something done. Heck, there might even be calls for replacements for the replacements. The public will join the real referee's fight for a better contract and Roger Goodell could see all areas of the league targeting him for what has happened. Since the officiating is being viewed negatively in the public eye, the NFL might even start losing casual fans. Fans that will watch a game if it is on, but not if it takes four hours or bad calls are being made left and right.
This is a very slippery slope the league is headed down. Are these replacements the best refs we've seen? No. But given the circumstances, they're not doing that bad. But next time you're yelling at the TV screen or updating your Twitter or Facebook with death threats to these officials, you might want to spend that energy attacking the league. Tweeting Roger Goodell will go a longer way than arguing over a call that was just made. It's done, it's a penalty. Now sit back as the ref faces the wrong way, calls a seven yard holding penalty, and calls it on #14 Drew Brees of the Vikings. First down
Matty O
Monday, September 17, 2012
NFC What?!?! NFC West Making An Early Statement
Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, Sam Bradford, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb. In an era of passing, these are not exactly names that strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Kolb and Skelton have been battling over the starting job for a couple years now, leading to instability and losses in Arizona. Bradford had a fine rookie season, but saw injuries plague him his second year as he led the Rams to only one win and six TDs in 10 starts, leading many to question his rookie year as an aberration. Wilson is an undersized (5'11") rookie from Wisconsin who started the season as the third string quarterback on the Seahawks. Smith is a former number one overall pick, but seen by many as a bust before last year as he came up well short following the likes of Joe Montana, Steve Young, and even Jeff Garcia.
But here they are. A division where the Arizona Cardinals and 49ers are 2-0 (only division in the NFL to have two 2-0 teams), the St. Louis Rams are 1-1 with a tight loss to the Detroit Lions, and the Seattle Seahawks' only loss to division rival Arizona. In the process they have racked up wins against Robert Griffin III, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo. This is a division that, the past few years, has been the laughing stock of the league. This is a division that sent a team with a losing record to the playoffs (Seahawks at 7-9 in 2010). Well now, this is a division that is making noise and the league should pay attention although it is very easy not to.
Here is Kevin Kolb's stat line from the New England game: 15/27, 140 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 20 rushing yards, 1 TD. Meanwhile, star receiver Larry Fitzgerald only had four yards on one catch and no Cardinals runner gained more than 44 yards. That's not how you win in this league. Heck, you can't even play the turnover card as the Cardinals had 2 to New England's one. The key was special teams and a stingy defense. They got up in Brady's face as the offense concentrated on controlling the clock, rather than the total yards. But this was a Patriot team that were Super Bowl runner ups. Despite losing Hernandez, they still had the Gronk, Wes Welker, and Brandon Lloyd. Scary, yet the Cardinals defied the odds and beat the Pats in Foxboro.
Defying the odds is one thing. Defying the media hype is another. Given all the media attention RG3 has gotten, you would think he is the next MVP. Hold your horses. Yes, he exploded against the Saints, but the Saints are now looking like a team that anyone can score on. Then come the lowly Rams. The Rams that people joke about needing Kurt Warner back. The Rams that finished last in the division last year, have an aging running back, an injury prone quarterback, and wide receivers that make you scratch your head and wonder, 'who?' Yet in the face of another great performance by RG3, it was the other former Heisman trophy winner that shined. Bradford threw for 310 yards and 3 TDs, half as many as he threw for all of last year. Danny Amendola, unknown outside of St. Louis and the fantasy football realm, had 160 yards and a TD, leading the Rams to victory. This after the Rams lost a heartbreaker to Detroit the week before and the Redskins were supposed to go to the Super Bowl after lighting up the Saints. Amazing how quickly things change.
Another case of a swing in momentum was the Dallas Cowboys-Seattle Seahawks game. The Cowboys were fresh off an opening night win over the defending champion New York Giants where Tony Romo shined, and the defense that haunted their team all of last year looked much improved. Four days later, the Seahawks made their fans question the decision to start the rookie Wilson as he threw for only 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and lost a fumble in an ugly loss to Arizona. Looking at stats alone, Wilson performed pretty much the same on Sunday as he threw for 151 yards, 1 TD, but 0 turnovers. He was an excellent manager of the game as he missed only five passes. He wasn't trying to be Tony Romo, he was trying to be Russell Wilson which meant controlling the clock and relying on a hard nosed defense. That defense forced two turnovers and special teams blocked a punt, and returned it for a TD. The offense held the ball for nearly 35 minutes, draining the Cowboy's defense and limiting Romo's opportunities. This was not the script that should have been written for this game. That's three impressive victories for the NFC West on one Sunday.
Make that four, although the 49ers are a bit less of a surprise than the other three teams in the division. Still, Aaron Rodgers and the high flying Packers offense in a packed Lambeau Field is no cake walk. But the 49ers defense "held" Rodgers to 303 yards and two TDs and even forced an interception. Smith, meanwhile, only missed six passes as he threw two TDs and committed zero turnovers. They were able to hold the ball for six more minutes than the Packers. Using pace and fundamentals, not flash and flair to win ball games. In came the Lions. Although having a rough first game, Stafford looked to find his groove towards the end of the St. Louis game. He's still a threat to throw for 400 yards any time he steps out there. Instead he threw for 230, only 1 TD, and 1 INT. They flushed him from the pocket constantly and stifled the Lions's persistent attempts to establish the run game as they only ran for 82 yards. This has been their formula ever since John Harbaugh took over and they are reaping the rewards now.
How big can these rewards be? How's undefeated sound. Almost sounds crazy I know, but look at their schedule. The Giants, Saints, and Patriots are the only three teams left on their schedule that made the playoffs last year. The Giants were beat by the Cowboys in week 1 and needed a comeback of epic proportions to beat the Buccaneers this Sunday. The Saints are now 0-2 and look absolutely dreadful on defense. The Patriots are now Hernandez-less and just lost to the Cardinals showing that they are indeed beatable. With the amount of talent and depth they have at defense, an excellent game managing quarterback, and a coach and team that believes, it is not that absurd to envision this team going undefeated, and perhaps all the way this year.
These are not your father's Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. This is a new style of play in an era that does not call for it. Stingy and stifling defense coupled with disciplined special teams and mistake free offenses. This is their formula. So throw the ball 40 times against them. Put a defense out there that can't stop a nose bleed. Take dumb penalties that cost you the game. Just be ready to see one, two, or even three of these teams from the NFC West in the playoffs.
Matty O.
But here they are. A division where the Arizona Cardinals and 49ers are 2-0 (only division in the NFL to have two 2-0 teams), the St. Louis Rams are 1-1 with a tight loss to the Detroit Lions, and the Seattle Seahawks' only loss to division rival Arizona. In the process they have racked up wins against Robert Griffin III, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo. This is a division that, the past few years, has been the laughing stock of the league. This is a division that sent a team with a losing record to the playoffs (Seahawks at 7-9 in 2010). Well now, this is a division that is making noise and the league should pay attention although it is very easy not to.
Here is Kevin Kolb's stat line from the New England game: 15/27, 140 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 20 rushing yards, 1 TD. Meanwhile, star receiver Larry Fitzgerald only had four yards on one catch and no Cardinals runner gained more than 44 yards. That's not how you win in this league. Heck, you can't even play the turnover card as the Cardinals had 2 to New England's one. The key was special teams and a stingy defense. They got up in Brady's face as the offense concentrated on controlling the clock, rather than the total yards. But this was a Patriot team that were Super Bowl runner ups. Despite losing Hernandez, they still had the Gronk, Wes Welker, and Brandon Lloyd. Scary, yet the Cardinals defied the odds and beat the Pats in Foxboro.
Defying the odds is one thing. Defying the media hype is another. Given all the media attention RG3 has gotten, you would think he is the next MVP. Hold your horses. Yes, he exploded against the Saints, but the Saints are now looking like a team that anyone can score on. Then come the lowly Rams. The Rams that people joke about needing Kurt Warner back. The Rams that finished last in the division last year, have an aging running back, an injury prone quarterback, and wide receivers that make you scratch your head and wonder, 'who?' Yet in the face of another great performance by RG3, it was the other former Heisman trophy winner that shined. Bradford threw for 310 yards and 3 TDs, half as many as he threw for all of last year. Danny Amendola, unknown outside of St. Louis and the fantasy football realm, had 160 yards and a TD, leading the Rams to victory. This after the Rams lost a heartbreaker to Detroit the week before and the Redskins were supposed to go to the Super Bowl after lighting up the Saints. Amazing how quickly things change.
Another case of a swing in momentum was the Dallas Cowboys-Seattle Seahawks game. The Cowboys were fresh off an opening night win over the defending champion New York Giants where Tony Romo shined, and the defense that haunted their team all of last year looked much improved. Four days later, the Seahawks made their fans question the decision to start the rookie Wilson as he threw for only 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and lost a fumble in an ugly loss to Arizona. Looking at stats alone, Wilson performed pretty much the same on Sunday as he threw for 151 yards, 1 TD, but 0 turnovers. He was an excellent manager of the game as he missed only five passes. He wasn't trying to be Tony Romo, he was trying to be Russell Wilson which meant controlling the clock and relying on a hard nosed defense. That defense forced two turnovers and special teams blocked a punt, and returned it for a TD. The offense held the ball for nearly 35 minutes, draining the Cowboy's defense and limiting Romo's opportunities. This was not the script that should have been written for this game. That's three impressive victories for the NFC West on one Sunday.
Make that four, although the 49ers are a bit less of a surprise than the other three teams in the division. Still, Aaron Rodgers and the high flying Packers offense in a packed Lambeau Field is no cake walk. But the 49ers defense "held" Rodgers to 303 yards and two TDs and even forced an interception. Smith, meanwhile, only missed six passes as he threw two TDs and committed zero turnovers. They were able to hold the ball for six more minutes than the Packers. Using pace and fundamentals, not flash and flair to win ball games. In came the Lions. Although having a rough first game, Stafford looked to find his groove towards the end of the St. Louis game. He's still a threat to throw for 400 yards any time he steps out there. Instead he threw for 230, only 1 TD, and 1 INT. They flushed him from the pocket constantly and stifled the Lions's persistent attempts to establish the run game as they only ran for 82 yards. This has been their formula ever since John Harbaugh took over and they are reaping the rewards now.
How big can these rewards be? How's undefeated sound. Almost sounds crazy I know, but look at their schedule. The Giants, Saints, and Patriots are the only three teams left on their schedule that made the playoffs last year. The Giants were beat by the Cowboys in week 1 and needed a comeback of epic proportions to beat the Buccaneers this Sunday. The Saints are now 0-2 and look absolutely dreadful on defense. The Patriots are now Hernandez-less and just lost to the Cardinals showing that they are indeed beatable. With the amount of talent and depth they have at defense, an excellent game managing quarterback, and a coach and team that believes, it is not that absurd to envision this team going undefeated, and perhaps all the way this year.
These are not your father's Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. This is a new style of play in an era that does not call for it. Stingy and stifling defense coupled with disciplined special teams and mistake free offenses. This is their formula. So throw the ball 40 times against them. Put a defense out there that can't stop a nose bleed. Take dumb penalties that cost you the game. Just be ready to see one, two, or even three of these teams from the NFC West in the playoffs.
Matty O.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Fantasy Observations: Giants - Cowboys
HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!!!
Had to throw in some love for my team there, but this will focus on what you, as a fantasy football owner, should take away from this past game.
New York Giants
Owners of the Giants passing game (Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks) need to take a deep breath. Cruz and Manning were one missed pass interference call away from a score and I did not expect Nicks to be as sharp as he will next week after coming off a foot injury. If you owned any of them this week, or more than one of them, you might be in trouble as Eli posted a mere 12.52 pts, Cruz posted 5.8, and Nicks posted 3.8. Not good for a starting quarterback and two WR2, depending on your depth at wide receiver. Even for a WR3 or flex play those aren't good numbers.
Note that Cruz still got a ridiculous 11 targets and Nicks got six after missing nearly all of training camp and only playing very little in their last preseason game. Also, and this might be some Cowboys favoritism, they were going up against a darn good secondary. The achilles heel of the Cowboys last year could become a strength as free agent Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne were excellent in coverage all night against the two receivers. Ahmad Bradshaw, meanwhile, racked up 93 total yards and a score. Although I did not get around to doing an NFC fantasy breakdown before my draft, I would have commented on how I thought Bradshaw was being drafted too low. People were ready to crown David Wilson as the back to get for the Giants and all he did was rush for four yards and lose a fumble. He is still a solid fantasy option.
Finally, their defense...oh boy. Aside from Jason Pierre Paul, who played his butt off, no one else on the Giants D really impressed. Their secondary lost another player, Michael Coe, which leaves them amazingly slim in the secondary. They will have Prince Amukamara back next week, but he is not what I would call an elite cornerback yet, although he was drafted like one. I think people thought 'their great defensive line will get sacks and pressure so a below average secondary is okay.' The Cowboys tore that theory to shreds. I'm not saying you should drop them yet, but don't be afraid to store away an underrated unit off the waiver wire. Speaking of which...
Dallas Cowboys
...how bout that Cowboys defense. The Giants did put up 17 points, although their last TD was a bit of the result of them playing soft coverage, but it is still a score. They were only able to get one turnover, but should have gotten more. Barry Church nearly picked off Eli which would have gone for a TD, Morris Claiborne put his hands on display a few times breaking up the pass, and Brandon Carr should have had an interception on Eli's bomb to Domenik Hixon, but he wildly mistimed the jump. On top of that, the secondary was missing former Pro Bowler Mike Jenkins and disruptive nose tackle Jay Ratliff. Once those two return, with Demarcus Ware's pass rush, and Dez Bryant's potential to break a long punt return and you have a solid case for an elite fantasy defense. They are probably sitting on the waiver wire right now. Hey you, stop reading and pick them up.
One guy who might not be on the waiver wire anymore is Kevin Ogletree. From a fan's perspective, all I can say is thank you as he was an integral part in beating the Giants. He certainly has skills, but as I mentioned before, he was going up against 5th and 6th string cornerbacks for the Giants. He will not get that luxury every week. Witten, Austin, and Bryant all made it through the game without aggravating their lingering off-season injuries, that we know of, which means they all should be at 100% next week. Ogletree, like Cruz, got 11 targets but in the long run he is still 4th behind Witten, Ausitn, and Bryant. This was more a product of bad defense than elite skill, sorry. If you have an open roster spot or Mark Sanchez, then pick this guy up as a wait and see type player, otherwise don't worry about the potential mad scramble to scoop him up.
Demarco Murray was another bright spot for the Cowboys as he racked up 131 rushing yards including a memorable 48 yard scamper where he bounced off players and changed directions, making Giants players miss him left and right. Only bad part was he cut inside when he could have had a TD if he kept on the sidelines. He struggled in the first half as the Cowboys pretty much abandoned the run for a stretch, but eventually wore down the Giants' defense to allow for some decent gains. One thing I liked seeing was he was running through players and not shying away from contact. It got him a few extra yards here and there on some plays and shows he is not concerned about his injury plagued past.
Lastly, the Cowboys passing game looked sharp. Romo put up numbers although I felt he checked down to quickly. Not saying checking down is a bad thing, but with receivers like Austin and Bryant who can make something special happen, I would like to see him key on them longer. For instance, Romo's TD pass to Austin was not the safest of all balls. There were two defenders there, but Austin made an adjustment, caught it at its highest point, then ran in for the score. All three should be in all league's starting lineups with Bryant having more risk, but also more upside given his freakish athleticism.
Matty O
Had to throw in some love for my team there, but this will focus on what you, as a fantasy football owner, should take away from this past game.
New York Giants
Owners of the Giants passing game (Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Hakeem Nicks) need to take a deep breath. Cruz and Manning were one missed pass interference call away from a score and I did not expect Nicks to be as sharp as he will next week after coming off a foot injury. If you owned any of them this week, or more than one of them, you might be in trouble as Eli posted a mere 12.52 pts, Cruz posted 5.8, and Nicks posted 3.8. Not good for a starting quarterback and two WR2, depending on your depth at wide receiver. Even for a WR3 or flex play those aren't good numbers.
Note that Cruz still got a ridiculous 11 targets and Nicks got six after missing nearly all of training camp and only playing very little in their last preseason game. Also, and this might be some Cowboys favoritism, they were going up against a darn good secondary. The achilles heel of the Cowboys last year could become a strength as free agent Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne were excellent in coverage all night against the two receivers. Ahmad Bradshaw, meanwhile, racked up 93 total yards and a score. Although I did not get around to doing an NFC fantasy breakdown before my draft, I would have commented on how I thought Bradshaw was being drafted too low. People were ready to crown David Wilson as the back to get for the Giants and all he did was rush for four yards and lose a fumble. He is still a solid fantasy option.
Finally, their defense...oh boy. Aside from Jason Pierre Paul, who played his butt off, no one else on the Giants D really impressed. Their secondary lost another player, Michael Coe, which leaves them amazingly slim in the secondary. They will have Prince Amukamara back next week, but he is not what I would call an elite cornerback yet, although he was drafted like one. I think people thought 'their great defensive line will get sacks and pressure so a below average secondary is okay.' The Cowboys tore that theory to shreds. I'm not saying you should drop them yet, but don't be afraid to store away an underrated unit off the waiver wire. Speaking of which...
Dallas Cowboys
...how bout that Cowboys defense. The Giants did put up 17 points, although their last TD was a bit of the result of them playing soft coverage, but it is still a score. They were only able to get one turnover, but should have gotten more. Barry Church nearly picked off Eli which would have gone for a TD, Morris Claiborne put his hands on display a few times breaking up the pass, and Brandon Carr should have had an interception on Eli's bomb to Domenik Hixon, but he wildly mistimed the jump. On top of that, the secondary was missing former Pro Bowler Mike Jenkins and disruptive nose tackle Jay Ratliff. Once those two return, with Demarcus Ware's pass rush, and Dez Bryant's potential to break a long punt return and you have a solid case for an elite fantasy defense. They are probably sitting on the waiver wire right now. Hey you, stop reading and pick them up.
One guy who might not be on the waiver wire anymore is Kevin Ogletree. From a fan's perspective, all I can say is thank you as he was an integral part in beating the Giants. He certainly has skills, but as I mentioned before, he was going up against 5th and 6th string cornerbacks for the Giants. He will not get that luxury every week. Witten, Austin, and Bryant all made it through the game without aggravating their lingering off-season injuries, that we know of, which means they all should be at 100% next week. Ogletree, like Cruz, got 11 targets but in the long run he is still 4th behind Witten, Ausitn, and Bryant. This was more a product of bad defense than elite skill, sorry. If you have an open roster spot or Mark Sanchez, then pick this guy up as a wait and see type player, otherwise don't worry about the potential mad scramble to scoop him up.
Demarco Murray was another bright spot for the Cowboys as he racked up 131 rushing yards including a memorable 48 yard scamper where he bounced off players and changed directions, making Giants players miss him left and right. Only bad part was he cut inside when he could have had a TD if he kept on the sidelines. He struggled in the first half as the Cowboys pretty much abandoned the run for a stretch, but eventually wore down the Giants' defense to allow for some decent gains. One thing I liked seeing was he was running through players and not shying away from contact. It got him a few extra yards here and there on some plays and shows he is not concerned about his injury plagued past.
Lastly, the Cowboys passing game looked sharp. Romo put up numbers although I felt he checked down to quickly. Not saying checking down is a bad thing, but with receivers like Austin and Bryant who can make something special happen, I would like to see him key on them longer. For instance, Romo's TD pass to Austin was not the safest of all balls. There were two defenders there, but Austin made an adjustment, caught it at its highest point, then ran in for the score. All three should be in all league's starting lineups with Bryant having more risk, but also more upside given his freakish athleticism.
Matty O
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: None
Did you watch them last year? Also, like all the hyped rookies, they still haven't proven themselves in the league yet, so no stud status for Andrew Luck.
Bust: Donald Brown, RB
Here is another player in a long list of running backs that has question marks. Brown probably will be number one on the depth chart, but what is that worth? He has shown that he can be a difference maker including a 161 yard, 1 TD performance last year against the Titans and Luck's first TD pass of his career. Having said that, he is still running behind a sub par offensive line, he will compete through the season with Delone Carter for touches, and I think the Colt's staff will let Luck sling the ball more than people think. In the passing game, despite the preseason, key word 'preseason' TD catch and run he had from Luck, I still think Luck will feel more comfortable throwing to veteran Reggie Wayne and college teammate, tight end Coby Fleener. His upside is limited so I would rather draft a guy with higher upside and wait and see, instead of getting Brown late to simply take up a spot on your bench until you realize he is not worth it, and drop him.
Sleeper: Reggie Wayne, WR
Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2011. Think of this kind of scenario for Wayne. Both had tremendously bad quarterbacks throwing to them, (Jimmy Clausen for Smith, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky for Wayne) both have posted great seasons before, and both have, or in Smith's case had, talented rookie quarterbacks coming in. Will Andrew Luck have Cam Newton's rookie year? Unfortunately, I don't think so. But what he can do is bring Reggie Wayne back from the fantasy dead. Some will say he lost his burst and should have been a relevant fantasy factor despite bad quarterback play (see: Larry Fitzgerald). I'm a believer though. Is his breakaway speed gone? Probably. But he is still one of the smarter players in terms of route running and positioning. I don't think he even needs Luck to be great for him to be great. He just needs Luck to be an average quarterback. The best part is where you can draft him. Realize he is projected behind the likes of Sidney Rice, Denarius Moore, and Torrey Smith. To me, that is insane considering those three have not established themselves (no, one season does not equal established) in the league and Rice has injury problems. Wayne will be a steal. I would even say reach for him.
Bottom Line:
I'm actually high on the Colts this year. There are plenty of reasons to doubt and say that it is supposed to take more time, and that Luck won't be ready for a few years. But, that's not me. Luck has skills that translate immediately to the NFL such as good footwork, surprisingly good speed, accuracy, and smarts (went to Stanford). I wouldn't even be that surprised if Brown had a decent year even though he is in my sleeper section. Bank on your other league members being low on this team and cash in.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Right now, Maurice Jones Drew is not with the Jaguars. So no, they don't have any studs right now. And as you'll read right now, he isn't worth it this year anyways.
Bust: Maurice Jones Drew, RB
For those of you who don't know, Jones Drew is in the midst of a holdout. This means he will not report to training camp, play, or interact with the team until a contract is worked out. A livable situation for him, but not for fantasy owners. After being one of the top backs last year, many people expected him to be available to draft in the first round. Now people who might have already had their drafts, better pray that he is there by week 1. Even if he is, I think his production will drop this year. He has had the most carries of any running back over the past three years. Good for those three years, not for 2012. I think an unfortunate injury is lurking around the corner. Add in the time that he is not getting with the Jaguars offense and you have a recipe for disaster. It is a top heavy running back class this year, and with MJD projected at the top, you can probably do better.
Sleeper: Justin Blackmon, WR
I have been hyping this receiver ever since Dez Bryant left Oklahoma State and Blackmon took over as the star of that explosive Cowboy offense, so take this for what it is worth. I might be too high on him, but how can you not be? He's 6'1" but can jump out of the gym. Here he is torching the Stanford defense in the Fiesta Bowl. I think his second TD was the most telling of what you can get from him. A quick slant and a rocket throw from Brandon Weeden, Blackmon catches it with a man draped on him, breaks the tackle, and speeds away from everyone else. He shows in that highlight video how hard it is to bring him down. It won't be as easy in the NFL, but things like his route running, which he shows on his third TD, are positive signs. Blaine Gabbert is not a great quarterback, but can sling it when he wants. Blackmon is one of those rare receivers like a Calvin Johnson, Bryant, or Randy Moss who have the athleticism to turn some badly thrown balls by their quarterbacks into spectacular catches.
Tennessee Titans
Sleeper: Jared Cook, TE
Houston Texans
Sleeper: None
Studs: None
Did you watch them last year? Also, like all the hyped rookies, they still haven't proven themselves in the league yet, so no stud status for Andrew Luck.
Bust: Donald Brown, RB
Here is another player in a long list of running backs that has question marks. Brown probably will be number one on the depth chart, but what is that worth? He has shown that he can be a difference maker including a 161 yard, 1 TD performance last year against the Titans and Luck's first TD pass of his career. Having said that, he is still running behind a sub par offensive line, he will compete through the season with Delone Carter for touches, and I think the Colt's staff will let Luck sling the ball more than people think. In the passing game, despite the preseason, key word 'preseason' TD catch and run he had from Luck, I still think Luck will feel more comfortable throwing to veteran Reggie Wayne and college teammate, tight end Coby Fleener. His upside is limited so I would rather draft a guy with higher upside and wait and see, instead of getting Brown late to simply take up a spot on your bench until you realize he is not worth it, and drop him.
Sleeper: Reggie Wayne, WR
Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2011. Think of this kind of scenario for Wayne. Both had tremendously bad quarterbacks throwing to them, (Jimmy Clausen for Smith, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky for Wayne) both have posted great seasons before, and both have, or in Smith's case had, talented rookie quarterbacks coming in. Will Andrew Luck have Cam Newton's rookie year? Unfortunately, I don't think so. But what he can do is bring Reggie Wayne back from the fantasy dead. Some will say he lost his burst and should have been a relevant fantasy factor despite bad quarterback play (see: Larry Fitzgerald). I'm a believer though. Is his breakaway speed gone? Probably. But he is still one of the smarter players in terms of route running and positioning. I don't think he even needs Luck to be great for him to be great. He just needs Luck to be an average quarterback. The best part is where you can draft him. Realize he is projected behind the likes of Sidney Rice, Denarius Moore, and Torrey Smith. To me, that is insane considering those three have not established themselves (no, one season does not equal established) in the league and Rice has injury problems. Wayne will be a steal. I would even say reach for him.
Bottom Line:
I'm actually high on the Colts this year. There are plenty of reasons to doubt and say that it is supposed to take more time, and that Luck won't be ready for a few years. But, that's not me. Luck has skills that translate immediately to the NFL such as good footwork, surprisingly good speed, accuracy, and smarts (went to Stanford). I wouldn't even be that surprised if Brown had a decent year even though he is in my sleeper section. Bank on your other league members being low on this team and cash in.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Right now, Maurice Jones Drew is not with the Jaguars. So no, they don't have any studs right now. And as you'll read right now, he isn't worth it this year anyways.
Bust: Maurice Jones Drew, RB
For those of you who don't know, Jones Drew is in the midst of a holdout. This means he will not report to training camp, play, or interact with the team until a contract is worked out. A livable situation for him, but not for fantasy owners. After being one of the top backs last year, many people expected him to be available to draft in the first round. Now people who might have already had their drafts, better pray that he is there by week 1. Even if he is, I think his production will drop this year. He has had the most carries of any running back over the past three years. Good for those three years, not for 2012. I think an unfortunate injury is lurking around the corner. Add in the time that he is not getting with the Jaguars offense and you have a recipe for disaster. It is a top heavy running back class this year, and with MJD projected at the top, you can probably do better.
Sleeper: Justin Blackmon, WR
I have been hyping this receiver ever since Dez Bryant left Oklahoma State and Blackmon took over as the star of that explosive Cowboy offense, so take this for what it is worth. I might be too high on him, but how can you not be? He's 6'1" but can jump out of the gym. Here he is torching the Stanford defense in the Fiesta Bowl. I think his second TD was the most telling of what you can get from him. A quick slant and a rocket throw from Brandon Weeden, Blackmon catches it with a man draped on him, breaks the tackle, and speeds away from everyone else. He shows in that highlight video how hard it is to bring him down. It won't be as easy in the NFL, but things like his route running, which he shows on his third TD, are positive signs. Blaine Gabbert is not a great quarterback, but can sling it when he wants. Blackmon is one of those rare receivers like a Calvin Johnson, Bryant, or Randy Moss who have the athleticism to turn some badly thrown balls by their quarterbacks into spectacular catches.
Bottom Line:
This is still a team rebuilding so don't expect too much even out of my boy, Blackmon. I actually think they will finish last in this division behind the Colts because of their awful quarterback play. Keep an eye on the MJD situation and take a late flier on Blackmon. Avoid everyone else.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
Settle down people who owned him last year, it was just one year. The Titans grabbed Steve Hutchinson, who people thought would help them get Peyton Manning, but will instead help Johnson and the Titans run game as a whole. I think his holdout situation as well as the lockout really hurt Johnson, but now he has a better offensive line and time to work with the team. He still eclipsed 1000 rushing yards and did manage games of 27 and 23 points last year. I won't say people were too high on him last year, it just didn't work out. This year I do think people are too low on him. Not only can he carry the rock, but he is a fantastic back coming out of the backfield and has no real competition for his job. Once the three headed monster of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy are scooped up, feel safe grabbing CJ2K.
Bust: Kenny Britt, WR
Such a talented player gone to waste. Another guy I have personal experience with, he started last year with a bang. 136 yards and 2 TDs followed by 135 and 1 TD. Then came week 3. He posted negative one fantasy point and picked up an injury that put him out the rest of the year. Bummer. On top of that, with a shaky off field life to say the least already, he picked up a DUI in July which could mean a suspension from the commissioner. So we have now injury concerns and a possible suspension. Add in competition from Nate Washington and second year man Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck throwing to you and it does not look good. If he does not receive a suspension, he could be a productive starter this year. Just cool the jets on a top five or even ten wide out this year.
Sleeper: Jared Cook, TE
A common theme throughout these fantasy breakdowns has been how deep this tight end class is and it continues with Cook. He is a physical monster at 6'5", 248 pounds and makes you wonder why he hasn't put up big numbers in his career. Inconsistency has plagued him, but if Locker gets the start (a bit less so if Hasselbeck does) then Cook could be a valuable safety blanket for the young quarterback. Such a large target will help Locker get into a rhythm and let Locker get away with a few errant, young quarterback mistakes that he is bound to make. He has the build of Rob Gronkowski, how he just needs to execute like him. If Cook plays up to his physical potential, he could be in the top three or five tight ends this year and you could probably pick him up with one of your last picks!
Bottom Line:
This team will come much closer than people think to challenging the Texans for the division title. Their offense is potent with or without Britt, although their defense leaves much to be desired after failing to get Mario Williams. Still, there is fantasy talent to be found here and don't be surprised if Locker turns into a bye week fill in quarterback or if one, or God forbid two, of your quarterbacks go down due to injury. He's not afraid to throw it deep.
Houston Texans
Studs: Arian Foster, RB, Defense/Special Teams
The projected number one fantasy draft pick this year, Foster is the man in Houston's zone blocking running game. In fact, he's the man in the whole offense. Not only did he run for 1224 yards and 12 total TDs, but he also caught 53 balls for 617 yards proving he is a reliable threat out of the backfield. He put up games of 40 and 30 last year balancing the run and receiving. Don't get caught up in the Ben Tate hype either. Pick him up for sure, especially if you have Foster, but know that Foster will still see the majority of the carries. If star receiver Andre Johnson's injury woes (see below) continue, that will mean even more touches and looks for Foster. Don't get cute, take him number one overall.
Their two losses this off season were quite significant. Vocal leader and captain DeMeco Ryans was traded to Philadelphia and sack master Mario Williams signed with the Buffalo Bills. Don't panic. They still have pro bowler and monster in the middle Brian Cushing as well as emerging superstar J.J. Watt at defensive end. They only made two defensive draft picks, but they were great choices. They got defensive end Whitney Mercilus out of the University of Illinois in the first round and defensive tackle Jared Crick out of the University of Nebraska in the forth, emphasizing getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run. The Texan's secondary is average so getting pressure up front is the key for them. It seems to be working as they had the number two total defense, number three passing defense, and number four rushing defense in the NFL last year. Don't expect it to change despite their losses.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
I hate to be down on him because he is such a good player and person, not your typical cocky, diva receiver type, but he cannot stay healthy. When he is, no one can deny his skill. But that is a big and too often seen if. This bust prediction is risky because he has the skill set to put up Calvin Johnson type numbers in an offense built to run the ball. But the depth at wide receiver this year makes this a safe bust prediction. Here are the next five receivers going after Johnson: Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, and AJ Green. You can make the argument that all five could match Johnson's season this year and none of them have Johnson's injury history (Jennings was hurt last year, but that was the first games he'd missed since '07). If receiver were as thin as running backs are this year, Johnson might not make the bust section, but the class is so deep that you can do better. If he falls far enough, take him, just make sure you pick up a couple insurance policies at receiver later on.
Sleeper: None
Strange I know to not have a sleeper, but let me justify myself. I think everyone will be drafted in the right place because nothing on this team has or will change that significantly. Foster will still be a beast, Ben Tate will be drafted higher than most backups because of the emphasis on the run game in Houston, Matt Schuab will be drafted correctly as a fantasy backup, and I don't see Owen Daniels or any of their other receivers breaking out. While it is always nice to have a sleeper on a team, a little consistency and peace of mind when you are drafting players is nice also.
Bottom Line:
This team will win this division and should have one of, if not the best, running game in the NFL. Defenses will have a hard time moving the ball which will give Foster and Co. more opportunities to get you fantasy points. Remember, draft him first. Not Rodgers, Brady, McCoy, or Rice. Arian Foster.
Matty O.
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