Studs: None
Did you watch them last year? Also, like all the hyped rookies, they still haven't proven themselves in the league yet, so no stud status for Andrew Luck.
Bust: Donald Brown, RB
Here is another player in a long list of running backs that has question marks. Brown probably will be number one on the depth chart, but what is that worth? He has shown that he can be a difference maker including a 161 yard, 1 TD performance last year against the Titans and Luck's first TD pass of his career. Having said that, he is still running behind a sub par offensive line, he will compete through the season with Delone Carter for touches, and I think the Colt's staff will let Luck sling the ball more than people think. In the passing game, despite the preseason, key word 'preseason' TD catch and run he had from Luck, I still think Luck will feel more comfortable throwing to veteran Reggie Wayne and college teammate, tight end Coby Fleener. His upside is limited so I would rather draft a guy with higher upside and wait and see, instead of getting Brown late to simply take up a spot on your bench until you realize he is not worth it, and drop him.
Sleeper: Reggie Wayne, WR
Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2011. Think of this kind of scenario for Wayne. Both had tremendously bad quarterbacks throwing to them, (Jimmy Clausen for Smith, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky for Wayne) both have posted great seasons before, and both have, or in Smith's case had, talented rookie quarterbacks coming in. Will Andrew Luck have Cam Newton's rookie year? Unfortunately, I don't think so. But what he can do is bring Reggie Wayne back from the fantasy dead. Some will say he lost his burst and should have been a relevant fantasy factor despite bad quarterback play (see: Larry Fitzgerald). I'm a believer though. Is his breakaway speed gone? Probably. But he is still one of the smarter players in terms of route running and positioning. I don't think he even needs Luck to be great for him to be great. He just needs Luck to be an average quarterback. The best part is where you can draft him. Realize he is projected behind the likes of Sidney Rice, Denarius Moore, and Torrey Smith. To me, that is insane considering those three have not established themselves (no, one season does not equal established) in the league and Rice has injury problems. Wayne will be a steal. I would even say reach for him.
Bottom Line:
I'm actually high on the Colts this year. There are plenty of reasons to doubt and say that it is supposed to take more time, and that Luck won't be ready for a few years. But, that's not me. Luck has skills that translate immediately to the NFL such as good footwork, surprisingly good speed, accuracy, and smarts (went to Stanford). I wouldn't even be that surprised if Brown had a decent year even though he is in my sleeper section. Bank on your other league members being low on this team and cash in.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Right now, Maurice Jones Drew is not with the Jaguars. So no, they don't have any studs right now. And as you'll read right now, he isn't worth it this year anyways.
Bust: Maurice Jones Drew, RB
For those of you who don't know, Jones Drew is in the midst of a holdout. This means he will not report to training camp, play, or interact with the team until a contract is worked out. A livable situation for him, but not for fantasy owners. After being one of the top backs last year, many people expected him to be available to draft in the first round. Now people who might have already had their drafts, better pray that he is there by week 1. Even if he is, I think his production will drop this year. He has had the most carries of any running back over the past three years. Good for those three years, not for 2012. I think an unfortunate injury is lurking around the corner. Add in the time that he is not getting with the Jaguars offense and you have a recipe for disaster. It is a top heavy running back class this year, and with MJD projected at the top, you can probably do better.
Sleeper: Justin Blackmon, WR
I have been hyping this receiver ever since Dez Bryant left Oklahoma State and Blackmon took over as the star of that explosive Cowboy offense, so take this for what it is worth. I might be too high on him, but how can you not be? He's 6'1" but can jump out of the gym. Here he is torching the Stanford defense in the Fiesta Bowl. I think his second TD was the most telling of what you can get from him. A quick slant and a rocket throw from Brandon Weeden, Blackmon catches it with a man draped on him, breaks the tackle, and speeds away from everyone else. He shows in that highlight video how hard it is to bring him down. It won't be as easy in the NFL, but things like his route running, which he shows on his third TD, are positive signs. Blaine Gabbert is not a great quarterback, but can sling it when he wants. Blackmon is one of those rare receivers like a Calvin Johnson, Bryant, or Randy Moss who have the athleticism to turn some badly thrown balls by their quarterbacks into spectacular catches.
Bottom Line:
This is still a team rebuilding so don't expect too much even out of my boy, Blackmon. I actually think they will finish last in this division behind the Colts because of their awful quarterback play. Keep an eye on the MJD situation and take a late flier on Blackmon. Avoid everyone else.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
Settle down people who owned him last year, it was just one year. The Titans grabbed Steve Hutchinson, who people thought would help them get Peyton Manning, but will instead help Johnson and the Titans run game as a whole. I think his holdout situation as well as the lockout really hurt Johnson, but now he has a better offensive line and time to work with the team. He still eclipsed 1000 rushing yards and did manage games of 27 and 23 points last year. I won't say people were too high on him last year, it just didn't work out. This year I do think people are too low on him. Not only can he carry the rock, but he is a fantastic back coming out of the backfield and has no real competition for his job. Once the three headed monster of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy are scooped up, feel safe grabbing CJ2K.
Bust: Kenny Britt, WR
Such a talented player gone to waste. Another guy I have personal experience with, he started last year with a bang. 136 yards and 2 TDs followed by 135 and 1 TD. Then came week 3. He posted negative one fantasy point and picked up an injury that put him out the rest of the year. Bummer. On top of that, with a shaky off field life to say the least already, he picked up a DUI in July which could mean a suspension from the commissioner. So we have now injury concerns and a possible suspension. Add in competition from Nate Washington and second year man Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck throwing to you and it does not look good. If he does not receive a suspension, he could be a productive starter this year. Just cool the jets on a top five or even ten wide out this year.
Sleeper: Jared Cook, TE
A common theme throughout these fantasy breakdowns has been how deep this tight end class is and it continues with Cook. He is a physical monster at 6'5", 248 pounds and makes you wonder why he hasn't put up big numbers in his career. Inconsistency has plagued him, but if Locker gets the start (a bit less so if Hasselbeck does) then Cook could be a valuable safety blanket for the young quarterback. Such a large target will help Locker get into a rhythm and let Locker get away with a few errant, young quarterback mistakes that he is bound to make. He has the build of Rob Gronkowski, how he just needs to execute like him. If Cook plays up to his physical potential, he could be in the top three or five tight ends this year and you could probably pick him up with one of your last picks!
Bottom Line:
This team will come much closer than people think to challenging the Texans for the division title. Their offense is potent with or without Britt, although their defense leaves much to be desired after failing to get Mario Williams. Still, there is fantasy talent to be found here and don't be surprised if Locker turns into a bye week fill in quarterback or if one, or God forbid two, of your quarterbacks go down due to injury. He's not afraid to throw it deep.
Houston Texans
Studs: Arian Foster, RB, Defense/Special Teams
The projected number one fantasy draft pick this year, Foster is the man in Houston's zone blocking running game. In fact, he's the man in the whole offense. Not only did he run for 1224 yards and 12 total TDs, but he also caught 53 balls for 617 yards proving he is a reliable threat out of the backfield. He put up games of 40 and 30 last year balancing the run and receiving. Don't get caught up in the Ben Tate hype either. Pick him up for sure, especially if you have Foster, but know that Foster will still see the majority of the carries. If star receiver Andre Johnson's injury woes (see below) continue, that will mean even more touches and looks for Foster. Don't get cute, take him number one overall.
Their two losses this off season were quite significant. Vocal leader and captain DeMeco Ryans was traded to Philadelphia and sack master Mario Williams signed with the Buffalo Bills. Don't panic. They still have pro bowler and monster in the middle Brian Cushing as well as emerging superstar J.J. Watt at defensive end. They only made two defensive draft picks, but they were great choices. They got defensive end Whitney Mercilus out of the University of Illinois in the first round and defensive tackle Jared Crick out of the University of Nebraska in the forth, emphasizing getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run. The Texan's secondary is average so getting pressure up front is the key for them. It seems to be working as they had the number two total defense, number three passing defense, and number four rushing defense in the NFL last year. Don't expect it to change despite their losses.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
I hate to be down on him because he is such a good player and person, not your typical cocky, diva receiver type, but he cannot stay healthy. When he is, no one can deny his skill. But that is a big and too often seen if. This bust prediction is risky because he has the skill set to put up Calvin Johnson type numbers in an offense built to run the ball. But the depth at wide receiver this year makes this a safe bust prediction. Here are the next five receivers going after Johnson: Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, and AJ Green. You can make the argument that all five could match Johnson's season this year and none of them have Johnson's injury history (Jennings was hurt last year, but that was the first games he'd missed since '07). If receiver were as thin as running backs are this year, Johnson might not make the bust section, but the class is so deep that you can do better. If he falls far enough, take him, just make sure you pick up a couple insurance policies at receiver later on.
Sleeper: None
Strange I know to not have a sleeper, but let me justify myself. I think everyone will be drafted in the right place because nothing on this team has or will change that significantly. Foster will still be a beast, Ben Tate will be drafted higher than most backups because of the emphasis on the run game in Houston, Matt Schuab will be drafted correctly as a fantasy backup, and I don't see Owen Daniels or any of their other receivers breaking out. While it is always nice to have a sleeper on a team, a little consistency and peace of mind when you are drafting players is nice also.
Bottom Line:
This team will win this division and should have one of, if not the best, running game in the NFL. Defenses will have a hard time moving the ball which will give Foster and Co. more opportunities to get you fantasy points. Remember, draft him first. Not Rodgers, Brady, McCoy, or Rice. Arian Foster.
Matty O.
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