Part two of this series. Although not the best division in football, it is certainly the most balanced as the records of the teams in this division last year were 8-8, 8-8, 8-8, and 7-9, with all four teams being an even 3-3 in division play. I expect the same kind of parity this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: TBD
This section is reserved for players that you do not need to worry about if you draft them. Unfortunately Chiefs fans, there is no one on this team that possesses that quality. There are a few players on this team that have the potential to be fantasy studs, but as you will read later, they nearly all come with a risk. Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles are not impressing me this year.
Bust: Dwayne Bowe, WR
He will be drafted like a number one, high number two WR, but will finish as nothing better than a flex/WR3 player. Don't blame it on him though. If he gets the ball, his size and athleticism are up there with the best in the league. But that is a big if. Matt Cassel failed to reach a mere 200 yards in five of the eight games he played before breaking his hand in week 10. Pathetic. With Jamaal Charles back along with new free agent Peyton Hillis, expect the Chiefs to become a run first, ground and pound type team with their passes coming on third and long or off of play action. The blueprint for a bad season was evident towards the end of last year as Bowe finished in single digits 10 of the last 11 weeks of the season.
Sleeper: Peyton Hillis, RB
A disappointing season with the Browns last year aside, this is still a solid starting running back on most rosters. He gets the sleeper designation because of last year's decline in numbers coupled with the fact that he will not be listed as the starter with the honors going to Jamaal Charles. Fortunately for Hillis, ACL injuries, which Charles suffered last year, are not the easiest to come back from. Given Hillis' size, he will probably be the goal line back which should give you some valuable points if his yards are not there. With bad rushing defenses within the division (highest last year was San Diego at 20th overall in rush defense) and an offense that should run it an unusually high amount, feel free to take a flier on Hillis if your position needs are covered. He may just sneak into your starting line up.
Bottom Line:
Look for your running back strength here, and stay away from any of their receivers. Cases could be made for the likes of Jon Baldwin (WR) or Tony Moeaki (TE) but it would be wishful thinking rather than true reasons to have them occupy a spot on your fantasy team. On the other side of the ball, look for the Chiefs defense to be hit or miss. The good news: Eric Berry is back, Tamba Hali had a breakout year, and they drafted 346 lb. Dontari Poe. The bad news: lost stud corner Brandon Carr to my Cowboys, there is no guarantee Poe will be the answer, and they play potent offensive teams such as the Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, and some guy named Peyton Manning joined a team in their division (Broncos). Pick them up off waivers as a bye week fill in or matchup choice, but not as your starting D.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: Sebastian Janikowski, K, Darren McFadden, RB
What? A kicker as a stud player? For those that do not know, the Raiders have by far the best kicking game in the NFL with Janikowski doing the field goals and Shane Lechler doing the punts. He has a powerful leg and can drill them from 60+ which allows the coaching staff to let him try kicks from distances that other kickers do not get a chance to. While only finishing third among kickers for fantasy points, he did have six double digit games including a 23 point performance against the Bears. If the Raiders offense can be more consistent than last year, expect these numbers to go up.
Why is McFadden a stud for the Raiders but Charles was not one for the Chiefs even though they both have injury problems? For starters, McFadden is a better player than Charles when both are at 100%. He also does not have a player like Peyton Hillis behind him ready to vulture carries. That honor went to Michael Bush last year, but he is now playing for the Bears. Now the Raiders have a cluster of unproven backs behind McFadden that the coaching staff will not want to put their faith into. If healthy, he could be a top five back for fantasy as he racked up double digit points in all but one game he played last year (it was against Houston's tough run D) including a 29 point beat down of the Jet's D. I see a Michael Vick situation playing out here. He is so talented that you take him anyways, but just have a solid back to replace him if, or rather when, he gets injured.
Bust: All Raiders WRs
In their defense, all of them can play. Denarius Moore, Darius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Louis Murphy make up this mess of wide outs. None of them are that bad of options, it is just a consistency factor. Maybe it is just me, but I would rather take a player who puts up low double digit points nearly every week rather then someone who's points totals go 0, 6, 24, 1 which was Moore's points for a four week stretch last year. You are playing fantasy roulette with these guys as they are just as likely to go for 30 as they are for zero. Don't forget that Carson Palmer is the one throwing the ball, not the poster boy for a consistent quarterback either. If you don't mind the risk, I suppose Moore is the "safest" but you can do better.
Sleeper: Carson Palmer, QB
Although he is not the poster boy for a consistent quarterback, he is also not the poster boy for a terrible one. He started off his Raider's career with a negative fantasy points game which is unheard of for a quarterback. He rebounded strongly, however, with double digit points seven out of his last nine games although he only eclipsed 20 points once. Think of him as a Kyle Orton type who will manage the game and make a few big plays here and there. He came to Oakland in the middle of the season so expect him to have a better grasp of the playbook. McFadden's health will also be a factor as teams will stack the box if he is able to stay in top form. This will give Palmer more one on one matchups and mismatches for him to expose. If his top two wideouts (Moore and Heyward-Bey) can also stay healthy, expect Palmer to give you okay numbers as either a fill in, or even a starter if you loaded up on wide receivers and running backs early in your fantasy draft.
Bottom Line
Feast or famine should be the theme with the Raiders this year in fantasy and real life. Apart from their kicking game, there are questions on all fronts. Consistency and health will be an issue with this team all year long. If they can stay healthy, however, this could be a team stacked with players to help you get to the playoffs and beyond.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Ryan Matthews, RB, Antonio Gates, TE, Phillip Rivers, QB
Despite their solid numbers last year, I think all three players will have even better seasons this year. Matthews no longer has Mike Tolbert to steal carries and touchdowns from him, although his injury problems should give owners some hesitation. Despite that, he is a legitimate pass catcher out of the backfield and does not shy away from contact. He still finished in the top 10 for fantasy running backs with over 1000 yards last year despite only getting into the end zone six times. Look for him to get even more touches this year.
It seems like Gates has been playing for the Chargers forever, yet he is only 32. Injuries have worn on him, however, and the explosion is not quite what it used to be. Having said that, he has the best chemistry with Phillip Rivers among the pass catching targets, even when Vincent Jackson was there. His size makes him a matchup nightmare anywhere on the field, but especially in the red zone as he posted seven TDs last year. His yardage numbers leave some to be desired, but if you miss out on the elite crop of tight ends, don't feel bad taking Gates as he should outplay his draft position.
What a season for Rivers last year. 20 interceptions was a career high for him and unacceptable for a number one fantasy quarterback. He no longer has Vincent Jackson, his top wide receiver for the past few years. So what good is there? Even though the Chargers will want to include Matthews more in the offense this year, this should include passing plays such as screens which will get Rivers stats as well. Malcom Floyd is no slouch, Robert Meachem held his own in New Orleans, Eddie Royal is a dependable slot guy, and Vincent Brown showed flashes last year and may sneak into the starting role if injuries plague Floyd and Meachem like they have in the past. I'm actually high on Rivers this year as I do not think he will crack the top five fantasy quarterbacks but will definitely be top ten and will be drafted lower than he should be.
Bust: All Chargers WRs
Similar to the Raiders, there is no clear number one receiver. They all have the skill, but when they go off is anyone's guess. They will still have to contend with Gates and Matthews for touches and Floyd no longer has Jackson to draw away double coverages. Like the Raider's receivers, draft them or pick them up off waivers with risk but try to find more proven options.
Sleeper: Ronnie Brown, RB
That's right. The guy the Eagles tried to trade last year and the one that made this outrageous mistake last year. Unfortunately, I see no other sleepers on this roster. Brown's value is dependent on Matthews's health. They will not use Brown like Tolbert, so he will not see that many carries as long as Matthews is the starter. Matthews has been an injury waiting to happen for his entire career, however, so the chance could be there for Brown. He won't get drafted so this will be a wait and see type thing, but don't forget about him on waivers if Matthews falters play wise or health wise.
Bottom Line:
This Chargers team will be much better than last year's version and should have their three studs (Rivers, Matthews ,Gates) be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for you. A daunting stretch to end the season with games at Denver, against Baltimore and Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, against Carolina, and at New York in Week 16 (when most fantasy championship games are) should give you a bit of worry, but nothing too major. Apart from their stars, however, avoid players on this team. That Ronnie Brown sleeper is an enormous reach and the other players are unproven.
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Eric Decker, WR
I am one of the people that do not think Manning will return to form. Having said that, his form was so good that a drop off from that is still great for a fantasy quarterback. His neck injury from last year is still a concern, but Denver's offensive line is solid and he will have Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno to hand the ball off to and take some pressure off. While his injury may have affected his movement and physical abilities, he remains one of the best readers and callers of the game which will make every offensive player in Denver better. Draft him as your starting quarterback with confidence.
Manning's arrival helps Thomas and Decker the most. Both are supreme talents whose stats were not as high due to Tim Tebow and the offense Denver ran last year. Now they get a precision passer who likes to sling the ball around. Decker is the better route runner of the two and was a safety valve for Tebow last year racking up 612 yards and eight touchdowns. Thomas was not even supposed to play last year after injuring his achilles, but got playing time in week 7. It took him some time, but eventually he posted impressive numbers with games of 26, 13, and 11 in a row. This doesn't even include his monster performance in Denver's first round playoff game including this memorable catch to end the game. Tebow gets credit for the play, but Thomas was the one who threw a nasty stiff arm and ran 60 yards for the score. His athleticism makes him a tantalizing wide receiver for fantasy as I think him, and possibly Decker, could be top 20 receivers this year with Thomas even making the top 10. That's how good he is and how precise Manning is.
Bust: Willis McGahee, RB
The Manning acquisition hurts McGahee the most. Gone are the days of read options and high touches for McGahee as the offense is no longer a Tebow offense. The line of scrimmage should open up a bit more, however, as teams must be aware of the passing threat with Manning. There is not even a guarantee that McGahee will be the starter for the whole year as Moreno is a capable back, though not on coach John Fox's good side as of now. McGahee also isn't getting any younger as he turns 31 this year with the age of 30 usually being the magic age when backs start to decline. A loss of carries and the potential of Moreno stealing the starting job make me very wary of McGahee as a dependable fantasy running back.
Sleeper: Jacob Tamme, TE
Tamme was Manning's backup tight end to Dwight Clark in Indianapolis. When Clark got injured in 2010, Tamme took over and finished the year with 631 yards and four touchdowns in eight starts. Now he will be the starter and already has chemistry with Manning which gives him a leg up on the other receiving options in Denver. His route running ability is something that will help him get more targets in a pass heavy offense. I will go out on a limb here and say that Tamme will finish in the top three tight ends for fantasy this year. Yes, top three, behind Jimmy Graham and the Gronk. Manning's offense is so heavily dependent on timing, which will allow Tamme to excel. I think he will give you the most bang for your buck out of any player in this upcoming fantasy season.
Bottom Line:
There are fantasy riches to be had in Denver this year. Manning boosts nearly every offensive player's value and should take some pressure off a very good Broncos defense. Now the offense has the ability to win games rather than the defense simply holding on until it was Tebow time like they did last year. There should be more rest for them, less three and outs, and more time for offensive players to rack up fantasy points. If you want value, Denver is the place to look this year.
Matty O.
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