The most relevant division for the majority of my readers. This should be a very competitive division and is stacked with fantasy talent.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson (Injury Pending), RB, Percy Harvin, WR
Peterson, when healthy, is one of the best fantasy running backs to have on your team. Despite only playing in 12 games last year, he still put up 973 rushing yards and 13 total TDs, including double digit fantasy point games in three out of the four divisional games he played in last year (Bears held him to 9 in Week 6). If he is healthy then he should be the center of the offense once again and should get plenty of opportunities to get touches. His recovery from his ACL injury has been phenomenal so far, but follow his status closely leading up to your draft. If he looks good to go, or drops in your draft, take him knowing the tremendous reward you could get.
Percy Harvin, surprisingly, did play in all 16 games for the Vikings last year. This is good news for potential owners of Harvin this year. He has had a history of migraine problems which for a while, kept owners guessing what week he would play. This issue seemed to be resolved last year as he finished with 1309 total yards and eight total TDs. If Peterson misses time, or even if he doesn't, expect Harvin to be a threat not just from a receiving perspective but from a rushing one as well. His natural Florida Gator speed gives him the ability to break any play open at any time.
Bust: Adrian Peterson, RB
Similar to Steven Jackson on the Rams, I put him here because no one else on the team did anything of enough significance last year to be put in the bust section. Like Jackson, I still think Peterson is a good player. I am one of the believers that thinks he will come back from his ACL injury no problem because of his freakish athleticism. If that does not work out, however, then the above stud section for him is all for naught. Toby Gerhart averaged nearly five yards a carry last year and is certainly capable of carrying the load for the Vikings. This could mean that even though Peterson feels he is ready to go, the coaching staff may limit him to prevent re-injury.
Sleeper: Christian Ponder, QB
Please keep reading, I haven't lost my mind. True, Ponder's 2011 left much to be desired as he threw for 1,853 yards and 13 TDs, but also 13 INTs. But he was a rookie, did not have Adrian Peterson at full health, and had limited receiving options to say the least. He is now in his second year with the offense and does not have to deal with a lack of preparation like last year when the collective bargaining agreement was being worked out; Peterson appears to be coming back strong; the Vikings selected Matt Kalil 4th overall in this year's draft to defend him; and they picked up Jerome Simpson, John Carlson, and drafted dangerous Jarius Wright out of Arkansas. I think they will let Ponder throw it around more than last year and he should have more protection. Expect a much better season from Ponder, although you may want to take a wait and see approach before inserting him in your starting line up.
Bottom Line:
The last place team from 2011 will be better, but won't challenge for the division due to a porous defense. Offensively, however, they remain a potent threat with fantasy starters to be had. Also keep an eye on who gets the spot behind Harvin as the number 2 receiver. That player could give you good value as a bye week or matchup fantasy player.
Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Brandon Marshall, WR, Jay Cutler, QB
Forte is signed for those of you wondering. Now that the lead back is back, expect him to be just as involved as last year. He didn't play the last four games of the season last year due to injury but do not count that as a concern. The Michael Bush signing shouldn't concern people either as that was done during Forte's contract dispute. With the hassle they went through to get the deal done, Forte is number one, Bush is number two, end of story. He was the main focus of the offense last year and finished with 1487 total yards but only four TDs. His TD total is a bit concerning, and Bush should do nothing to help that fact as he will certainly vulture away some valuable fantasy points. That being said, Forte will still get his touches and is one of the best backs in the league at catching that quick swing or screen pass and racking up yards after the catch.
Marshall finished last year with 1214 yards and six TDs despite catching balls from the likes of Chad Henne and Matt Moore. Now he reunites with Jay Cutler, the quarterback who played with him in Denver when he had his most consistently productive years. His catching and athletic skills make him a good bet for red zone TDs and he avoids facing Darrelle Revis, whom he had to face twice last year. His off the field issues and explosive personality should always be taken into consideration with Marshall, but the player that you get when he is clear of distractions is usually worth the risk.
I have always been a Cutler basher. I've never thought he was that good and think he would do well showing some real emotion during the games at some point. Having said that, this is meant to give you draft and fantasy advice. As far as that goes, Cutler is a solid quarterback. He now has two capable backs (Bush and Forte) as well as a whole host of weapons on offense (Marshall, rookie receiver Alshon Jeffery who I will talk about later, tight end Kellen Davis (remember Mike Martz is gone), and Devin Hester). Everyone saw how badly the team struggled down the stretch when Cutler got injured, although I think a lot of blame goes purely to bad backup quarterbacking skills. He had a 13 to 7 TD to INT ratio last year which will need to improve, but I think he has the weapons to do so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
They will be drafted like a top defense although I think they are running on reputation this season. Julius Peppers is still a stud up front, but that's about all they have in terms of getting to the quarterback. They drafted defensive end Shea McClellin with the 19th overall pick in this year's draft, but I don't think that is the answer. Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are still capable linebackers, but the secondary behind them is questionable. I don't want a questionable secondary or defense on my fantasy roster when they have to go up against Aaron Rodgers (twice), Matthew Stafford (twice), Tony Romo, Cam Newton, and Matt Schuab. If they fall, pick them up, but don't be too excited about this bunch. Also, unless you are counting return yards, I advise not picking a defense/special teams unit based solely on the returner. Yes, you know how good Devin Hester is, but so do his opponents. Expect a fair amount of kicks away from Hester with his return TDs not making up for bad defensive plays.
Sleeper: Alshon Jeffery, WR
A beast at South Carolina, this guy can play. Because of off the field issues, his draft stock fell and the Bears were able to pick him up in the second round of this year's draft. He's 6'3" but plays taller than that and has exceptional hands. It is amazing that he could start as a rookie opposite Marshall in Week 1 of the regular season. If teams decide to double team Marshall or focus in on Forte, I guarantee you that Jeffery will make them pay for it. If you haven't heard of him, here are his highlights from South Carolina's bowl game vs Nebraska. His good and bad are on display as his big play ability, inconsistency, and hot head are all shown. Get rid of the bad, and you have a solid fantasy starter.
Bottom Line:
A contender for the division crown, the Bears should have plenty of fantasy value on this team. There's always an issue when there is this much talent about who will get the touches, but expect the studs to still put up numbers for you in the end. Also, don't forget about Mr. Consistency Robbie Gould when the kickers start getting taken. Last but not least, the most popular piece of Bears trivia: Jay Cutler and Earl Bennett were teammates at Vanderbilt. But seriously, don't draft Earl Bennett.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Matthew Stafford, QB, Calvin Johnson, WR
Stafford finally made it through a full season healthy and what a season it was. 5038 passing yards and 41 passing TDs tell the story. The Lions realized the special abilities of Stafford this past season and used their first round draft pick on offensive tackle Riley Reiff out of Iowa. The Lions might also find a running game this year which could open up defenses even more. It also helps to have arguably the best receiver in the game in Calvin Johnson. Stafford makes good decisions and can post monster fantasy numbers for your team. Unfortunately for many fantasy owners last year, his best game came in week 17 when most leagues were over. He was still able to post seven 20 point games throughout the regular season and will see the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcon's pass defenses in the fantasy playoffs this year.
Johnson, aka Megatron, needs no introduction. Facing double teams and nagging leg problems, he still put up 1681 yards and a whopping 16 receiving TDs. His size and hands make him nearly impossible to defend as he twice eclipsed 30 fantasy points and only had single digit games four times. You should need no more convincing. Take him early.
Bust: Calvin Johnson, WR
Madden Curse, you have been warned.
Sleeper: Titus Young, WR
All things considered, Young had a solid rookie campaign. He finished with 607 yards and six receiving TDs. The double teams on Johnson did, and should in the future, free up more room for Young. Stafford and the Lions attempted more passes than anyone else in the league last year so he'll certainly get his chances. Not all of them can go Megatron's way. He wound up with 84 targets last year and I expect that number to easily be in the triple digits this upcoming year. What he does with those targets is up to him.
Bottom Line:
In the Lions case, you should put all your eggs in one basket. Well, technically two. While there aren't a lot of players to go around, the amount of points that Stafford and Megatron will get for you will be mind boggling. You could have some hope for their running game, but don't count on it. Their defense should be porous enough again this year that the offense will have to outscore the other team. Good news for owners of players on this team.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Greg Jennings, WR, Jordy Nelson, WR
Rodgers was the MVP last season, and there is no reason to think he can't repeat. He probably might have been Super Bowl MVP had it not been for his receiver's hands during the divisional playoff game against the Giants (six drops). Despite coming up short for the Super Bowl, Rodgers finished the season with 4643 yards, 45 passing TDs, only six INTs, and three rushing TDs. Wow. Apart from a 17 fantasy point hiccup against the Raiders, Rodgers posted 20 or more fantasy points in all games he played in including games of 45, 30, 31, and 32. Although the top picks in fantasy drafts are usually reserved for running backs or a Michael Vick type quarterback, Rodgers is good enough that he deserves consideration. A great O-line and potent weapons all around him make Rodgers an easy and safe first round draft choice.
Jennings got injured towards the end of last season and was not able to play for the final month. Before he went down, Jennings racked up 949 yards and 9 TDs. Jordy Nelson got all the hype towards the end of last season, but be aware that Jennings is the definite number one receiver and has more chemistry with Rodgers. His route running is among the best in the game and he plays smart to make up for his lack of speed and raw athleticism. The only concern you should have are targets being distributed elsewhere, but even that won't be enough to keep Jennings from putting up the numbers you need.
As mentioned before, Nelson caught fire towards the end of last year and will probably be a bit over hyped going into drafts this year. He wound up with 1263 yards and and 15 TDs in a pass heavy offense. Keep in mind that he had games of 14, 23, and 34 when Jennings was injured so expect Nelson's stats, especially his TDs, to come a bit back to Earth. Having said that, he is the clear cut number two receiver for Rodgers to throw to and proved last year that he can be a big time receiver. Although Jennings's return means less targets his way, it also means less coverages which could open Nelson up.
Bust: Jermichael Finley, TE
Finley's 2011 was haunted by drops (11) and he managed to be a mediocre to bad tight end option in a year when his quarterback posted ridiculous numbers. He still has to contend with Jennings and now more than ever Nelson for targets. His athleticism makes him an alluring prospect and he will still go off in certain weeks. His inconsistency is what makes him a bust as well as where he will be drafted. Don't think of him among the Graham and Gronkowskis of the world. He can still be a starting tight end in a 12 or even 10 team league, but there will be better players drafted later than him, and he will cause you frustration throughout the season.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Predicted to be a great unit last year, they floundered. They were last in the league in 2011 in passing yards given up per game, averaging 300. They allowed teams to score more than 30 points on them four times during the regular season, not counting the 37-20 beat down the Giants put on them. Thankfully they had Rodgers last year, but there's no guarantee the offense will always bail them out (case in point: that Giants game). The Packer's front office recognized this as a problem and drafted six defensive players and didn't even address the offense until the 7th round. The Packers should also get standout cornerback Tramon Williams back from injury, although when is to be determined. I expect an improved Packers team as the loss of Cullen Jenkins was significant. With another year under their belt, expect them to come back into form. For those wondering Randall Cobb is a really good returner too. Unlike Hester, they'll probably still kick to him.
Bottom Line:
All aboard the offense express. Rodgers should be taken early with Nelson and Jennings being among the top crop of receivers taken. Expect this team to not miss a beat from 2011 despite being in such a tough division.
Matty O.
No comments:
Post a Comment