Fantasy Breakdown: NFC West

Here is part one of a series of posts about the upcoming fantasy football season.  I love playing it and it gets you even more interested in football than you normally would.  Join a league if you haven't yet and thank me later.  Also, make sure it has at least 10 teams.  8 team league teams are too stacked and require less skill in my opinion.  So if you are stuck at 8, get some friends.  This will be a division by division and team by team breakdown of fantasy players with studs, a sleeper, and bust for each.  I'll go NFC West, AFC West, NFC North, AFC North, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East.  Not sure about specific dates, but it should be done in time for your fantasy draft unless you are having it outrageously early.  For those newbies to the sport, you can also check out Matthew Berry or Christopher Harris over on ESPN.  Their stuff is usually insightful and accurate.

St. Louis Rams
Studs:  Steven Jackson, RB
Probably the only thing good about the 2-14 Rams last year was Jackson.  He still ran for 1,145 yards and six total touchdowns.  While the six touchdowns might not be impressive, he was running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.  On top of that, he has no real competition for his job and should receive a significant amount of carries.  He is a solid number two, borderline number one back in most leagues, and gets the porous Vikings, Buccaneers, and Seahawks defense to end the season during the fantasy playoffs.

Bust:  Steven Jackson, RB
This selection is mainly because no one else on this team did anything to warrant bust status for this year.  That being said, there are some concerns with Jackson.  Being the workhorse of the offense has got to take a toll on a player at some point and Jackson will be 29 this season.  He suffered a broken hand and injured quadriceps last year, but still played.  It speaks to his toughness but should give owners concern.  While it is good that he is the man in St. Louis, it also means that teams will stack the box against the Rams and force quarterback Sam Bradford to beat them.  Jackson is a great runner, but the battle up front could turn into a losing numbers game for the Rams real quick.  Having to face San Francisco twice, the Jets, and Bears doesn't help either.

Sleeper:  Michael Hoomanawanui, TE
No, I did not fall asleep on my keyboard.  That is the real last name of University of Illinois alumnus Michael Hoomanawanui.  I, along with some experts, predicted him to have a breakout year last year resulting in me drafting him (thankfully I pulled off a draft day trade for Rob Gronkowski).  Injuries limited his play last year as he wound up with a mere 83 yards and no touchdowns.  Sam Bradford also only appeared in 10 games last year.  Getting chemistry with his starting quarterback should lead to more opportunities for the 6'4" 263lb tight end.  If you miss out on the likes of The Gronk or Jimmy Graham, look to steal this guy in the draft.

Bottom Line:
Honestly, I would avoid all Rams if I could.  Both Jackson and Hoomanawanui have potential, but their ceiling is limited by the poor collective play of their team.  They did very little in the draft to help their offensive line, instead focusing on the defensive side of the ball.  With an improved defense they might get the ball more, but not enough to make a significant difference.

Seattle Seahawks
Studs:  Marshawn Lynch, RB
Lynch, or Beastmode, went all Beastmode towards the end of last year and finished with twelve rushing touchdowns, including rushing for 107 yards and a score against the vaunted 49ers defense.  Similar to Jackson, he really has no one to compete with him for carries barring injury.  It is still to be determined what will come of his DUI this July, but if he is not suspended by the league, he instantly becomes a number one back.  Expect to see a lot of carries from Lynch as well with uncertainty at quarterback at the moment.

Bust:  Matt Flynn, QB
Even though he may not even be the starter come Week 1, I think that with the price they paid for him and the poor play of Tavaris Jackson, that he will eventually get the start.  Unfortunately, I do not think he will do much with it.  One of the last memories people have of Flynn was his shootout with the Lions on the last day of the season last year.  He threw to the tune of 480 yards and six TDs.  Nice.  But it's just one game.  There is a Kevin Kolb feel to this scenario which did not turn out well for the Arizona Cardinals last year.  He has certainly shown that he has the skills to be a solid fantasy quarterback, but with a new offense I would be wary about buying into the hype.

Sleeper:  Seattle's Defense/Special Teams
After a rough start to last year, this defense came on strong believe it or not.  Heck, they finished the year on my team after I picked them up off waivers.  Their last seven games of the year they averaged 13.7 fantasy points (ESPN Standard Scoring) including a 29 point explosion against the Bears.  They even put up 16 against the Super Bowl Champion Giants in Week 5.  They used their first two picks on defensive players although many say that first rounder Bruce Irvin was a reach.  So what?  If he performs then they got who they needed to pick.  A solid front seven backed up by underrated Earl Thomas at safety makes this a formidable group.  Don't forget about Leon Washington too.  His explosiveness could help get you special teams touchdowns anytime he touches the ball.


Bottom Line:
The uncertainty at quarterback makes me nervous about that position and any of their wide receivers, including Sidney Rice who was a close second for sleeper.  That situation may clear itself up closer to Week 1, but not in time for most drafts.  I truly would push for Seattle's defense.  This is a highly underrated group that might not get the most points in fantasy, but will get you more value for where you draft them.  Let others reach for the 49ers or Steelers D.  Wait to grab this one late and cash in.

Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
One of the best at his position, Fitzgerald continued his dominance last year catching eight TD passes and racking up 80 receptions for 1411 yards...and that was when his quarterback or quarterbacks had a bad year.  His route running and hands make him a reliable target and he consistently puts up the numbers you need a number one WR to make.  Expect him to be the number two or three WR off the board behind Calvin Johnson and perhaps Andre Johnson.


Bust:  Beanie Wells, RB
A boom or bust kind of guy throughout his career, I think this is the year there is no boom at all.  His knee is being worn down and seems to always have a questionable tag attached to it.  While he did rush for 1047 yards and 10 TDs in 2011, he also posted games of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and two zeroes.  Ouch.  The Cardinals also have Ryan Williams, who missed all of last year after an injury in the preseason.  Williams, a highly touted prospect out of Virginia Tech, could challenge for the starting job if he is healthy as well.  Some experts were saying he was going to be the man in the Cardinals backfield last year, so it's quite possible he could steal some carries from Wells.


Sleeper:  Malcolm Floyd, WR
I'm usually skeptical about rookie players making fantasy impacts, and I am not too fond of the University of Notre Dame.  But this player is special.  He excelled at his position in college on a mediocre team and set school records for career receptions, 100 yd. games, receiving yards, and receiving TDs.  Now he gets the chance to play alongside Fitzgerald and will most likely face single coverage, especially early in the season when teams would rather see if a rookie can beat them than Fitzgerald.  I could see this developing into a situation back when the Cardinals had Anquan Boldin and he put up exceptional numbers because you could not cover one guy.  Floyd has the skill set to be that player depending on the play of his quarterback(s).

Bottom Line:
Expect an improved Cardinals team this year which means improved value in Cardinals players.  Now that Kolb has a season under his belt and a true off season to become familiar with the playbook, expect the passing game to open up.  I would buy into Floyd and Fitzgerald and maybe even an Early Doucet or Andre Roberts as a bench/bye week fill in.  Who knows?  Maybe this is the year that Kolb performs like everyone thought he should and he becomes a viable fantasy option.


San Francisco 49ers
Studs:  Defense/Special Teams, Vernon Davis, TE
Where's Frank Gore on this list you ask?  I'll get to that in the bust/bottom line section so settle down.  We all know about the 49ers defense.  Tough, intimidating, and immovable.  All of their starters return from a defense that finished first in defensive points despite only scoring one defensive TD all year.  Imagine if or should i say when they get them.  Double digit points every week isn't that outrageous for this group.  Davis, meanwhile, came on strong last year after being kept in check by the inconsistent play of Alex Smith as well as scheming him for more blocking assignments.  He is still one of the top five tight ends in the NFL and is probably at his most steal-able in a draft as he has been due to his disappointing season last year.  If selected, you'll get a good route runner and a strong, physical player with soft hands.


Bust:  Frank Gore, RB
Injuries.  This is what has killed Gore for his whole career as well as his fantasy owners.  The 49er front office was clearly concerned as well as they picked up Brandon Jacobs in free agency and drafted LaMichael James in the second round of this year's draft.  Throw in Kendall Hunter who got 112 carries last year, and you have a talented, but crowded backfield.  While Gore might stay healthy all year, I could definitely see a scenario where his carries are cut significantly resulting in none of these backs being a solid fantasy option.  An injury to one or two of these guys could open it up for the others as I think all are capable of putting up good numbers.  Unfortunately I don't think the opportunities will be there for Gore, especially based on where he will be drafted.

Sleeper:  Randy Moss, WR
Remember, sleeper means the most value for where a player is drafted.  Do I think Moss will post a Pro Bowl type season?  No.  I actually think it is very possible he doesn't even lead his team in yards or receptions.  Despite this, I expect an above average real life and fantasy season from Moss.  Defenses will have to scheme for Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Davis, and new draftee A.J. Jenkins.  This will take some pressure off Moss and give him some one on ones, an area that he has been so dominant at during his career.  Even though his best days are behind him, he could provide some real value or a player to slap onto a trade to make it more enticing, and should be available in the late rounds or off waivers.

Bottom Line:
As good as this team is, I sense a lot of fantasy uncertainty.  Coach Jim Harbaugh likes to play a team game.  That's great for real life, but not so much for fantasy.  The skill positions on this team are too crowded.  Running back is dependent on Gore's knee problems and who knows who will go off for the 49ers in their wide receiving corps.  It is easy to say that Gore and Crabtree should be the most dangerous offensive weapons.  But are they consistent enough?  No.  Is it that crazy to think Manningham could get the most fantasy points among these receivers any given week?  No.  Stick with the defense.  As unpredictable as they are, this is one of those special defenses that only comes around once in a while.  Unless someone takes them in the first three rounds, I honestly do not think it would be a reach.  That's how good they are.

Hope you enjoyed this analysis.  Remember, this is just my opinion.  Articles like this and the ones that Berry and Harris write should only be used to enforce wavering opinions about certain players.  We are not to blame for your failed season.  Research, don't be a rankings slave, and watch The League.  It's on FX, already through 3 seasons and I think is on Netflix.

Matty O

Also, for reference
2011 - First Place Regular Season, Second Place Playoffs
2010 - Sixth Place Regular Season
2009 - Third Place Regular Season and Playoffs
2008 -  First Place Regular Season, Champion of Playoffs