Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
Studs:  None
Did you watch them last year?  Also, like all the hyped rookies, they still haven't proven themselves in the league yet, so no stud status for Andrew Luck.

Bust:  Donald Brown, RB
Here is another player in a long list of running backs that has question marks.  Brown probably will be number one on the depth chart, but what is that worth?  He has shown that he can be a difference maker including a 161 yard, 1 TD performance last year against the Titans and Luck's first TD pass of his career.  Having said that, he is still running behind a sub par offensive line, he will compete through the season with Delone Carter for touches, and I think the Colt's staff will let Luck sling the ball more than people think.  In the passing game, despite the preseason, key word 'preseason' TD catch and run he had from Luck, I still think Luck will feel more comfortable throwing to veteran Reggie Wayne and college teammate, tight end Coby Fleener.  His upside is limited so I would rather draft a guy with higher upside and wait and see, instead of getting Brown late to simply take up a spot on your bench until you realize he is not worth it, and drop him.

Sleeper:  Reggie Wayne, WR
Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2011.  Think of this kind of scenario for Wayne.  Both had tremendously bad quarterbacks throwing to them, (Jimmy Clausen for Smith, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky for Wayne) both have posted great seasons before, and both have, or in Smith's case had, talented rookie quarterbacks coming in.  Will Andrew Luck have Cam Newton's rookie year?  Unfortunately, I don't think so.  But what he can do is bring Reggie Wayne back from the fantasy dead.  Some will say he lost his burst and should have been a relevant fantasy factor despite bad quarterback play (see:  Larry Fitzgerald).  I'm a believer though.  Is his breakaway speed gone?  Probably.  But he is still one of the smarter players in terms of route running and positioning.  I don't think he even needs Luck to be great for him to be great.  He just needs Luck to be an average quarterback.  The best part is where you can draft him.  Realize he is projected behind the likes of Sidney Rice, Denarius Moore, and Torrey Smith.  To me, that is insane considering those three have not established themselves (no, one season does not equal established) in the league and Rice has injury problems.  Wayne will be a steal.  I would even say reach for him.

Bottom Line:
I'm actually high on the Colts this year.  There are plenty of reasons to doubt and say that it is supposed to take more time, and that Luck won't be ready for a few years.  But, that's not me.  Luck has skills that translate immediately to the NFL such as good footwork, surprisingly good speed, accuracy, and smarts (went to Stanford).  I wouldn't even be that surprised if Brown had a decent year even though he is in my sleeper section.  Bank on your other league members being low on this team and cash in.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs:  None
Right now, Maurice Jones Drew is not with the Jaguars.  So no, they don't have any studs right now.  And as you'll read right now, he isn't worth it this year anyways.

Bust:  Maurice Jones Drew, RB
For those of you who don't know, Jones Drew is in the midst of a holdout.  This means he will not report to training camp, play, or interact with the team until a contract is worked out.  A livable situation for him, but not for fantasy owners.  After being one of the top backs last year, many people expected him to be available to draft in the first round.  Now people who might have already had their drafts, better pray that he is there by week 1.  Even if he is, I think his production will drop this year.  He has had the most carries of any running back over the past three years.  Good for those three years, not for 2012.  I think an unfortunate injury is lurking around the corner.  Add in the time that he is not getting with the Jaguars offense and you have a recipe for disaster.  It is a top heavy running back class this year, and with MJD projected at the top, you can probably do better.

Sleeper:  Justin Blackmon, WR
I have been hyping this receiver ever since Dez Bryant left Oklahoma State and Blackmon took over as the star of that explosive Cowboy offense, so take this for what it is worth.  I might be too high on him, but how can you not be?  He's 6'1" but can jump out of the gym.  Here he is torching the Stanford defense in the Fiesta Bowl.  I think his second TD was the most telling of what you can get from him.  A quick slant and a rocket throw from Brandon Weeden, Blackmon catches it with a man draped on him, breaks the tackle, and speeds away from everyone else.  He shows in that highlight video how hard it is to bring him down.  It won't be as easy in the NFL, but things like his route running, which he shows on his third TD, are positive signs.  Blaine Gabbert is not a great quarterback, but can sling it when he wants.  Blackmon is one of those rare receivers like a Calvin Johnson, Bryant, or Randy Moss who have the athleticism to turn some badly thrown balls by their quarterbacks into spectacular catches.

Bottom Line:

This is still a team rebuilding so don't expect too much even out of my boy, Blackmon.  I actually think they will finish last in this division behind the Colts because of their awful quarterback play.  Keep an eye on the MJD situation and take a late flier on Blackmon.  Avoid everyone else.

Tennessee Titans

Studs:  Chris Johnson, RB

Settle down people who owned him last year, it was just one year.  The Titans grabbed Steve Hutchinson, who people thought would help them get Peyton Manning, but will instead help Johnson and the Titans run game as a whole.  I think his holdout situation as well as the lockout really hurt Johnson, but now he has a better offensive line and time to work with the team.  He still eclipsed 1000 rushing yards and did manage games of 27 and 23 points last year.  I won't say people were too high on him last year, it just didn't work out.  This year I do think people are too low on him.  Not only can he carry the rock, but he is a fantastic back coming out of the backfield and has no real competition for his job.  Once the three headed monster of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy are scooped up, feel safe grabbing CJ2K.

Bust:  Kenny Britt, WR

Such a talented player gone to waste.  Another guy I have personal experience with, he started last year with a bang.  136 yards and 2 TDs followed by 135 and 1 TD.  Then came week 3.  He posted negative one fantasy point and picked up an injury that put him out the rest of the year.  Bummer.  On top of that, with a shaky off field life to say the least already, he picked up a DUI in July which could mean a suspension from the commissioner.  So we have now injury concerns and a possible suspension.  Add in competition from Nate Washington and second year man Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck throwing to you and it does not look good.  If he does not receive a suspension, he could be a productive starter this year.  Just cool the jets on a top five or even ten wide out this year.

Sleeper:  Jared Cook, TE

A common theme throughout these fantasy breakdowns has been how deep this tight end class is and it continues with Cook.  He is a physical monster at 6'5", 248 pounds and makes you wonder why he hasn't put up big numbers in his career.  Inconsistency has plagued him, but if Locker gets the start (a bit less so if Hasselbeck does) then Cook could be a valuable safety blanket for the young quarterback.  Such a large target will help Locker get into a rhythm and let Locker get away with a few errant, young quarterback mistakes that he is bound to make.  He has the build of Rob Gronkowski, how he just needs to execute like him.  If Cook plays up to his physical potential, he could be in the top three or five tight ends this year and you could probably pick him up with one of your last picks!

Bottom Line:  

This team will come much closer than people think to challenging the Texans for the division title.  Their offense is potent with or without Britt, although their defense leaves much to be desired after failing to get Mario Williams.  Still, there is fantasy talent to be found here and don't be surprised if Locker turns into a bye week fill in quarterback or if one, or God forbid two, of your quarterbacks go down due to injury.  He's not afraid to throw it deep.

Houston Texans

Studs:  Arian Foster, RB, Defense/Special Teams

The projected number one fantasy draft pick this year, Foster is the man in Houston's zone blocking running game.  In fact, he's the man in the whole offense.  Not only did he run for 1224 yards and 12 total TDs, but he also caught 53 balls for 617 yards proving he is a reliable threat out of the backfield.  He put up games of 40 and 30 last year balancing the run and receiving.  Don't get caught up in the Ben Tate hype either.  Pick him up for sure, especially if you have Foster, but know that Foster will still see the majority of the carries.  If star receiver Andre Johnson's injury woes (see below) continue, that will mean even more touches and looks for Foster.  Don't get cute, take him number one overall.

Their two losses this off season were quite significant.  Vocal leader and captain DeMeco Ryans was traded to Philadelphia and sack master Mario Williams signed with the Buffalo Bills.  Don't panic.  They still have pro bowler and monster in the middle Brian Cushing as well as emerging superstar J.J. Watt at defensive end.  They only made two defensive draft picks, but they were great choices.  They got defensive end Whitney Mercilus out of the University of Illinois in the first round and defensive tackle Jared Crick out of the University of Nebraska in the forth, emphasizing getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run.  The Texan's secondary is average so getting pressure up front is the key for them.  It seems to be working as they had the number two total defense, number three passing defense, and number four rushing defense in the NFL last year.  Don't expect it to change despite their losses.

Bust:  Andre Johnson, WR

I hate to be down on him because he is such a good player and person, not your typical cocky, diva receiver type, but he cannot stay healthy.  When he is, no one can deny his skill.  But that is a big and too often seen if.  This bust prediction is risky because he has the skill set to put up Calvin Johnson type numbers in an offense built to run the ball.  But the depth at wide receiver this year makes this a safe bust prediction.  Here are the next five receivers going after Johnson:  Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, and AJ Green.  You can make the argument that all five could match Johnson's season this year and none of them have Johnson's injury history (Jennings was hurt last year, but that was the first games he'd missed since '07).  If receiver were as thin as running backs are this year, Johnson might not make the bust section, but the class is so deep that you can do better.  If he falls far enough, take him, just make sure you pick up a couple insurance policies at receiver later on.

Sleeper:  None

Strange I know to not have a sleeper, but let me justify myself.  I think everyone will be drafted in the right place because nothing on this team has or will change that significantly.  Foster will still be a beast, Ben Tate will be drafted higher than most backups because of the emphasis on the run game in Houston, Matt Schuab will be drafted correctly as a fantasy backup, and I don't see Owen Daniels or any of their other receivers breaking out.  While it is always nice to have a sleeper on a team, a little consistency and peace of mind when you are drafting players is nice also.

Bottom Line:

This team will win this division and should have one of, if not the best, running game in the NFL.  Defenses will have a hard time moving the ball which will give Foster and Co. more opportunities to get you fantasy points.  Remember, draft him first.  Not Rodgers, Brady, McCoy, or Rice.  Arian Foster.

Matty O.

Fantasy Breakdown: NFC South

For as talented as this division is, there should be more fantasy talent and depth here.  Alas, there seems to be more question marks than fantasy, not real life, stars.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs:  Vincent Jackson, WR
Jackson is listed here as a stud, but it is a borderline one.  On the negative side, he is going to be catching footballs from Josh Freeman instead of Phillip Rivers.  Downgrade for sure, despite Rivers's struggles last year.  He is also moving to a place that has new head coach Greg Schiano, formerly a coach at Rutgers, that is known for favoring the run game (Ray Rice played for him at Rutgers).  With new back Doug Martin, bruiser LeGarrette Blount, and Freeman's mediocre play it is possible that Jackson struggles.  I am still buying.  Unlike in San Diego, he will be the number one guy in the passing game.  In San Diego there was Ryan Matthews (last year), Antonio Gates, and occasionally Malcolm Floyd.  Tampa Bay cannot match that talent at any of those positions so expect Jackson to get targets.  His physical size hasn't changed as he stands at 6'5" and 230 pounds, giving Freeman a large target to throw to.  Despite Rivers's season, Jackson still managed to get over 1000 receiving yards and nine TDs albeit sporadically (6 double digit games including games of 22, 29, and 32, but 10 single digit games).  I think his consistency will be better this year with more targets and can be a number one receiver, and definitely a number two.

Bust:  LeGarrette Blount, RB
He might not even be a bust if people keep drafting rookie Doug Martin so high (I've done a few mock drafts and Martin has gone two - three rounds before Blount).  I agree with those drafting Martin.  Blount actually got benched towards the end of last year and finished the last three games with nine, two, and six carries.  He wound up with only five TDs and less than 1000 yards from scrimmage.  It is easy to be tempted by Blount.  He did have two 19 point fantasy games last year and is a human bowling ball at 247 pounds with surprising athleticism.  He has been fumble prone through his whole career, however, and could become a backup or at the best running back 1a by mid season or earlier.  Limited carries means limited fantasy points.  He is not as bad of a bust as others that I have mentioned in my fantasy breakdowns and could, and should, be picked up as a late round flier if the other options are terrible.  Just don't expect someone you can start on a week to week basis.

Sleeper:  Josh Freeman, QB
How quickly opinions change in one season.  At the start of last year, the experts were saying that he was going to be an amazing fantasy quarterback after his stellar 2010 campaign.  Not so fast my friend.  Bit of bragging here, but I saw this coming.  His weapons have always been limited, his consistency has been an issue, and people expected too much out of him when he came out in college.  His 16 to 22 TD to INT ratio was a killer and a microcosm of the Bucs season as a whole as they finished 4-12, one year after contending for a playoff spot and finishing 10-6.  But it was one season.  He did get four rushing TDs which weren't just coincidence; he has the ability to do this.  He also has new wide receiver Jackson, a more in shape and focused Mike Williams, and perhaps a stable running game in Martin.  Add in the fact that he gets the Saints and Rams defenses in the fantasy playoffs (neither of which should scare your fantasy quarterback), and Freeman is a great pick in later rounds.  Not a starter right away, but could develop into one or be used as trade bait.

Bottom Line:
As mentioned in the intro, this is a team with a lot of questions.  Will it be the 2010 or 2011 Josh Freeman?  Can Jackson make the transition from San Diego to Tampa Bay?  Who is their best running back?  Apart from Jackson, all Tampa Bay players should be wait and see projects to find out what their value truly is.

Carolina Panthers
Studs:  Cam Newton, QB,  Steve Smith, WR
Once again, I saw this coming.  Well, his incredible rushing statistics at least.  His size, 6'5" and 248 pounds coupled with his speed, is something we have never seen at the quarterback position in the NFL.  It is easy to assume that he cannot match his 14 rushing TDs that he had this year, but I'll say he will.  His passing was not as good as people probably think because he eclipsed 4000 yards.  Impressive, no doubt.  But his numbers are inflated due to games of 374, 422, and 432.  Like the rushing TDs, it is fair to say that he will not replicate that again, and this time I agree.  His passing game is still a work in progress as he did not have to rely heavily on it in college, and it showed last year with a 17 INTs.  All that aside, he still never had a single digit fantasy game and brings back essentially the same offense as last year as well as second round pick and offensive tackle Amini Silatolu.  Fantasy starter material.

If there is one face you can count on seeing when it comes to the Panthers, it is Steve Smith.  He is going to be entering his 12th season with the franchise this year.  People had their doubts if his ability was still there, and if Smith was still in Carolina's future.  Enter 2012 and Newton.  Smith's skills were always there, but the quarterback's skill wasn't (see:  Jimmy Clausen).  Last year he went off for 1394 yards and seven TDs as his chemistry with Newton was apparent and he was thrown to early and often.  This catch against the Saints last year shows that Smith's athleticism and desire is still there even though he will be 33 this season (video also highlights Newton's ability as well).  Very rarely will Smith have a down week because of the targets he gets.  I think you might see a slight decline in numbers this year, but nothing significant.  He is a number one or two wide out easy.

Bust:  DeAngelo Williams, RB, Mike Tolbert, RB, Jonathan Stewart, RB
People fall into the draft Carolina running backs trap every year.  Now they added Mike Tolbert from the Chargers who was known for vulturing TDs from Ryan Matthews in San Diego, as well as filling in nicely as a replacement when Matthews went down with injuries.  By themselves and on different teams, they are probably all fantasy starters.  Unfortunately, they all culminate in a crowded backfield trying to get rushing TDs away from not just the other running backs, but Newton as well.  The best way to sum them up would be that Williams is the speed back and the one who can break it at any moment.  Tolbert is your best bet for the short yards and TDs.  Stewart is probably the best overall back of all of them, but who knows what week and how many carries he will get.  That's the thing.  If we knew who would get the majority of the carries from week to week, then these guys would be easily draftable.  Instead, owners of any of these three backs could be jumping for joy one week, then screaming, "why are you putting _______ in?" as __________ scores the touchdown from your guy.  Have your blood pressure checked during the season.

Sleeper:  Brandon LaFell, WR
Hey, the Panthers have another receiver on their team not named Smith.  Legedu Naanee somehow was the Panther's number two receiver last year, but he is gone leaving that slot to be filled by LaFell with no serious competition in sight.  He gained 613 receiving yards and three TDs which really isn't that bad for a number three receiver.  He will have to share attention with Smith, but will also see coverages move towards Smith early on.  Here's some of his highlights from last year.  As you can see, he has good hands, is aggressive attacking the ball, and knows what to do after he catches the ball.  All things you want in a great receiver and an almost identical description to Steve Smith, although not as fast in my opinion.  I could see him moving up as high as a number two wide receiver on your fantasy team this year, maybe even number one if you loaded up on running backs and/or quarterback in your draft.  This guy should definitely be drafted.

Bottom Line:

While I won't go Ryan Kalil and say that the Panthers will win the Super Bowl, I will say that they get the to playoffs and, wait for it, win their division.  They get on and off the field leader Jon Beason back as well as new hyped linebacker Luke Kuechly out of Boston College to help their struggling defense (despite these additions do not draft this D).  Newton will now have a year under his belt and a true off season to work with the offense.  Although the Tolbert addition will drive fantasy owners crazy, it should also drive opposing defenses crazy as the Panthers have a multitude of ways to attack teams now.

Atlanta Falcons
Studs:  Roddy White, WR, Julio Jones, WR
Very rarely are there two wide outs on a team with this much skill.  Such is the case here.  White is the veteran.  The chemistry he has with quarterback Matt Ryan is impeccable as he has become Ryan's security blanket since Ryan was a rookie.  He led the league in targets last year and has never missed a game in his career!  Insane.  People will overemphasize Jones's threat to White's numbers this year and White could fall into your lap.  Jones is a threat, as I will get to later, but White is the proven one and his route running is much better than Jones's.  He is one of the most consistent receivers in the game and you can feel very safe drafting him as your number one wide out.

Here is one guy that I got wrong.  I thought coming out of Alabama that he was overrated and that he did not impress me against SEC defenses.  It's looking like he can ball.  While battling a hamstring injury, Jones finished with 959 yards and 8 TDs.  Even though White has the experience and route running, Jones has the athleticism and leaping ability to be a receiving threat, especially in the red zone.  With veteran Tony Gonzalez getting older, expect Jones to see more looks and balls his way especially after their bye week.  If he can stay healthy, and that is a minor if because he played in 12 out of a possible 16 games, he will become number one fantasy wide receiver status.

Bust:  Michael Turner, RB
It kills me to say it because I watched him since he was "The Burner" at NIU, (should have won or at least been a candidate for the 2003 Heisman Trophy by the way) but I think Turner's best days are behind him.  He did get 1340 rushing yards and 11 TDs last year, but started to fade towards the end (a 29 point performance in Week 17 against the awful Bucs run D doesn't suffice).  He is 30, playing on a team with two tremendous wide receivers.  I know the Falcons have wanted to pound the rock with Turner since he came over from San Diego, but should they.  Let your franchise quarterback sling it around to those two talented receivers and use Turner as a change of pace player, not the other way around.  He looked tired towards the end of last season and I think it will continue into this year.  They have Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers waiting in the wings and ready to take over for him at any time.  Because of the Falcon's philosophy and Turner's skill, he could still be a fantasy factor, but don't be afraid to pull him if he struggles early.

Sleeper:  Matt Ryan, QB
Matt Ryan, or Matty Ice, is a solid quarterback, but does not get the fantasy attention that others do.  He threw for over 4000 yards last year with a respectable 29 to 12 TD to INT ratio.  He also discovered a new target in Jones last year who can turn an errant pass into a catch.  I'm not exactly sure what they have against him.  Is it that the Falcons like to run the ball?  Do people think he is conservative?  Is he overshadowed by the other quarterbacks in his division?  I'm not exactly sure.  Even in the mock drafts I've done, people avoid him like the plague.  I'm high on Ryan this year.  He is a definite fantasy starter and, bold statement, could finish in the top 5 in fantasy points for quarterbacks.

Bottom Line:
This team is stacked in the passing game with fantasy goodness.  You might even consider taking an aging Tony Gonzalez, although his wear and tear might prove to be too much this year.  Keep an eye on the running back scenario and when or if, the Falcons move away from Turner in exchange for Snelling or Rodgers.  The offense will churn along, but the defense will cause the Falcons to finish third behind the Panthers and Saints.  Big points in the process though so pick up Jones, White, and Ryan.

New Orleans Saints
Studs:  Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Darren Sproles, RB
Not a lot of explaining or questioning to do here with Brees.  He got the contract situation resolved and is looking to repeat or better his record setting 5476 yard 46 TD performance he had last year.  I think he will, but slightly under as those numbers were astronomical.  He is a first round pick with who carries no extra baggage such as off the field problems or injuries.

Graham joined the recent trend of tight ends becoming significant players in the passing game.  He finished with 1310 receiving yards and 11 TDs.  The most telling statistic I saw that should give you confidence in drafting him high is that he had 149 targets, which was more than every wide receiver but five last year!  Don't expect those numbers to fall drastically.  He is a reliable target and serious red zone threat.  Considering the Saints do not have a true pound the ball in threat, they can use Graham on roll outs or fades to get mismatches in coverage when they are close to the goal line.  He should be the second tight end taken off the board, behind the Gronk, and could go as early as the second round.

Sproles scampered his way to a fantastic fantasy season last year as he provided the ultimate dual threat running for 603 yards and gaining 710 receiving yards with nine overall touchdowns.  I do have my doubts.  Sproles will not be a between the tackles guy and relies on targets in the passing game from Brees which can be distributed in a massive number of ways.  Offenses like this scare me unless you have the quarterback just because it is so hard to predict who will have the big game that week.  Sproles still presents a reliable option at back because of his quickness and the fact that defenses cannot key in on one guy (the flip side of not knowing who will have the big game is neither will the defense).

Bust:  Marques Colston, WR
He will be drafted high and will probably be in starting lineups throughout the season.  The problem is that he will fall to a number three receiver as the season progresses.  The "too many targets" theory holds here for Colston as he has been replaced by Graham as Brees's go to guy.  No real progress was made in getting rid of Robert Meachem as they drafted Nick Toon in the forth round and still have Lance Moore and Devery Henderson on the roster.  Colston has the skills to be the number one guy and he is definitely one of my riskier bust predictions, but you should be cautious nonetheless.

Sleeper:  Lance Moore, WR
Similar to Colston, I'm not too confident in this prediction, but it is certainly worth tracking or even drafting him late.  I was surprised to find out that he actually led all Saints receivers the past two seasons, despite his mediocre yards total (627 last year).  Brees's pass attempts makes any receiver on this team a viable option and Moore can be a key contributor.  The yards are certainly a risk, but he will be in on the majority of the Saint's formations and might finally click with Brees this year and steal some targets away from Colston and Graham.

Bottom Line:
For starters, the bounty punishments will not affect this team as much as you might think.  The defense was never the strength of this team anyways except for their Super Bowl winning year when they relied on turnovers to get the job done.  Their offense, however, will be as strong as ever.  Just know that apart from Drew Brees, it is hard to tell who will have the big game.

Matty O. 

Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North

Cleveland Browns
Studs:  None
Sorry Browns fans, but last year was a fantasy wasteland in Cleveland.  Also, cannot put rookies like Trent Richardson here.  While he may have a good year this year, he has yet to play a down in the NFL.  So while all the physical attributes are there, I cannot endorse him as a stud.


Bust:  Trent Richardson, RB
Speaking of Richardson, I would be wary of drafting him.  Anyone who followed college football last year knows what a monster Richardson is and potentially can be in the NFL.  He has been hyped by analysts leading up to the draft as well as during rookie OTAs and mini-camp.  Unfortunately, he is on the Cleveland Browns.  He will be the center of the offense which is good in certain scenarios.  Here, it is terrible because the Browns lack a passing game.  No receiver or tight end on the roster poses a threat to defenses and the quarterback position will be filled by either rookie Brandon Weeden or sub par Colt McCoy.  Richardson will see eight or even nine man boxes in front of him from the likes of the Eagles, Bengals (twice), Steelers (twice), Ravens (twice), Giants, Cowboys, and Broncos.  Don't buy into the hype with this guy.

Sleeper:  Greg Little, WR
Little is the only receiver on the Browns that has any kind of value for fantasy, albeit limited value.  A former running back, Little has blazing speed, decent hands, and can pose problems for less talented cornerbacks or safeties.  Instead, he will be going up against the number one cornerbacks for other teams and I'm not sure if he has the talent to get it done.  Still, a fresh face at quarterback might shake things up for Little and I feel that he will get a fair share of targets.  I see him as a consistent kind of receiver who will very rarely get you huge games but rarely lose you any matchups.  He is a decent number three receiver for fantasy or at the very least a matchup or bye week fill in type player.

Bottom Line:
In this division with such great defenses (Steelers 1st overall in total defense in 2011, Ravens 3rd, and Cincinnati 7th) it looks pretty bleak for fantasy players in Cleveland.  Relying on rookies is risky, but it is what you'll have to do if you want a Browns player on your fantasy roster this year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Studs:  AJ Green, WR
In his rookie season, Green surpassed expectations and put up 1057 receiving yards and seven TDs.  He will get an enormous amount of targets as it is looking like the number two receiver in Cincinnati will be either Jordan Shipley or rookie Mohamed Sanu.  Ouch.  But good for Green.  Defenses will probably throw more double coverages his way this year, but his athleticism and leaping ability should still allow him to get his numbers.  It also makes him a consistent threat in the red zone as Andy Dalton can throw it up and count on Green to come down with it.  I don't see a sophomore slump coming for this guy as his numbers should be even higher than last year.  Consider him as a legit number one fantasy wideout.

Bust:  Andy Dalton, QB
Numbers can be deceiving.  He finished the year with 3398 passing yards, a 20 to 13 TD to INT ratio, and even ran in a score.  On paper, pretty impressive numbers for a rookie from TCU.  It also doesn't hurt that he had the guy in the "studs" section either.  A closer look, however, reveals some causes for concern.  He only averaged 10.8 fantasy points against divisional opponents and put up 5 single digit games!  Unacceptable for a fantasy quarterback.  One of those games was a 5 pointer against the porous Rams defense in week 15, the first round of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues.  The Bengals schedule this year will make it very tempting to buy into the Dalton hype.  But after the Bengals' bye week, LOOK OUT!  Home games against the Broncos, Cowboys, Raiders, Giants and Ravens.  Away games at the Chiefs, Chargers, as well as games at the Eagles and Steelers in weeks 15 and 16 (fantasy playoffs).  The sophomore slump will hit Dalton hard.  Don't be there for the fall.

Sleeper:   Jermaine Gresham, TE
Here is another tight end in one of the deepest positions this year in fantasy football.  Inconsistency has been a problem for Gresham his entire career but I expect him to be utilized more this year with teams focusing more on Green, Dalton's limited arm strength, and no solid number two receiver.  He has shown flashes of his ability so the big question is if he will get enough targets to be a fantasy factor.  He did manage to get six TDs last year and I feel like that number should and will increase this year because he is such a solid target for Dalton to throw to.  Gresham would be a nice surprise if you miss out on the highly hyped tight end names this year.


Bottom Line:
This team will be better this year, although their record won't show it.  Their brutal stretch to end the year will take a lot out of them and they will once again finish third behind the Steelers and Ravens.  Still, there are fantasy points to be had in Cincinnati but only Green has the ability to put up big time numbers.  Keep a close eye on their running back situation as well.  With Cedric Benson out of Cincinnati, it opens up an opportunity for either BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Bernard Scott to get the carries in Cincy.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs:  Mike Wallace, WR (Pending Contract), Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Defense/Special Teams
With the aging of Hines Ward, Wallace has stepped in as the new dominant receiver in Pittsburgh.  Unlike Ward, Wallace's speed is what makes him the most dangerous as he can outrun nearly every defensive player he goes up against.  He tailed off towards the end of last year, but that was coupled with an injured Roethlisberger and Brown seeing more targets.  Draft Wallace expecting the first half Wallace from last year as he finished with 1193 yards and eight TDs last year.  Of course, all of this is meaningless if he cannot come to terms with the Steelers and keeps holding out.  Neither side seems like they want to blink first so I would keep a close eye on that situation come draft day.  Just know the risk if your draft is before a contract is agreed upon.

If Wallace's contract situation doesn't pan out, then Antonio Brown becomes the number one receiver on the Steelers depth chart and a number one receiver on some fantasy teams this year.  He has Wallace's speed, better hands in my opinion, and he returns punts.  His year was the exact opposite of Wallace's as he had a slow start, but then stormed onto many team's fantasy rosters after week six.  He put up a lot of targets and receptions towards the end of last year as he gained Roethlisberger's trust.  Even if Wallace does wind up playing this year, it draws coverage away from Brown allowing him to get the one on one matchups that all receivers want.  With Wallace in, he is still one of the best number two wide receivers out there.

Roethlisberger could have done better last year.  Big Ben got injured towards the end of last year and put up games of five (twice), seven, and nine fantasy points during the season.  Despite this, he still eclipsed 4000 yards passing and showed that the Steelers are no longer simply a punishing run first team.  This will probably be emphasized even more this year as Rashard Mendenhall will start the season injured and probably won't be himself even when he does come back.  The Steelers used a first round pick on a guard and a second round pick on a tackle in this year's draft to address the occasionally shaky Steeler's offensive line.  If they can keep Big Ben upright, expect him to be slinging it around the field again this season is what all fantasy owners are looking for: opportunity.

The Steelers defense has always had a reputation for being tough, but I think the defense might have it tough this year.  They lost James Farrior and didn't do a whole lot to bolster the defense via the draft or free agency.  So while they bring back the number one total defensive unit from last year, they are getting up there in age and questionable when it comes to staying healthy.  Still, they are certainly one of the most formidable defenses in the NFL and should be among the top three defenses off the board with San Francisco and Baltimore being the two others.  Their schedule pits them against some high powered offenses but I still think they are up for the challenge.  Also don't be surprised to see speedy rookie Chris Rainey out of Florida on the return team. 

Bust:  Issac Redman, RB
What?  He didn't do anything last year.  True.  This is just a warning against people thinking that because he is the last back standing in Pittsburgh that he will get the carries and flourish.  Neither will be true.  I expect new offensive coordinator Todd Haley to focus on the pass and allow the passing game to carry the team.  Even if he does get the carries, he does not have the talent to do explosive things with it.  Since Mendenhall is injured I suppose you could chalk up a couple more TDs for Redman, but not much else.  Logic says you should draft him due to the Mendenhall injury, I say you don't due to his limited skill set and new offensive focus.  I would say you should be more focused on whether or not the Steelers decide to bolster this position through free agency instead of letting Redman run for them.

Sleeper:  Emmanuel Sanders, WR
This was the guy that was supposed to have Antonio Brown's numbers by now.  Considered a sleeper last year, it was Sanders that did the sleeping as he finished with a miserable 228 yards and two TDs, as injury also limited his play.  He should be fully healthy to start the season and be the number three receiver on the depth chart hands down.  As mentioned before, the footballs will be flying in Pittsburgh this year so the opportunity will be there.  Now that Brown and Wallace have made progress, it is Sanders that is the best kept secret on this roster.  He'll be facing weaker coverages than the other two receivers so it is on him to make a good season happen.  It is certainly in him.  Make a spot on your bench for him and see how he does the first few weeks before inserting him in your lineup.

Bottom Line:
Pass, pass, pass.  This will be the motto in Pittsburgh this year.  The receivers should put up big numbers with Big Ben making a formidable fantasy quarterback.  Trust their defense even if you hear otherwise, but stay away from the run game and Heath Miller.  No tight end love to be found here.

Baltimore Ravens
Studs:  Ray Rice, RB, Defense/Special Teams
The offense goes through him and he gets it done.  Speaking from personal experience (had Rice last year) he is as safe as it gets when it comes to running backs.  He got single digits only twice last year.  Once was the Monday Night debacle against the Jaguars when he only got eight carries and they lost 12-7.  The other time was the Harbaugh Bowl against the 49ers, but who didn't struggle running against that defense last year.  He finished as the number one ranked fantasy running back and finished with 2068 total yards and 15 total TDs.  He is one of the best, if not the best, pass catching backs in the NFL and runs behind the best fullback in the NFL in Vontae Leach.  When I was watching Ravens games last year it seemed like the ball was always in his hands, similar to how Ray Lewis seems to be all over the place for their defense.  They set up a number of screens for him and he is almost always Joe Flacco's safety valve on passing plays (Flacco checks down a lot).  He should be in the top two or three picks overall in fantasy drafts this year.

Do not overlook, but do not overemphasize the Terrell Suggs injury.  The 2011 defensive MVP probably won't be lining up for the Ravens this year which is a big loss due to his defensive prowess and ability to get to the quarterback.  Some experts have dropped this unit way too low because of that.  You shouldn't.  They still have the ageless wonder Ed Reed, linebacker Ray Lewis, 330lb. nose tackle Haloti Ngata, breakout corner from last year Ladarius Webb, and second round pick Courtney Upshaw from Alabama's talented defense.  This is a ball hawking defense that might give up more points than others, but should make up for it with their turnovers and defensive TDs. 

Bust:  Torrey Smith, WR
This is another case of a player who will come in with last year's hype and be drafted too high.  Numbers can be deceiving lesson 2:  Smith finished with 841 yards and seven receiving TDs.  Decent numbers, except that three of those TDs came in one game and he only had five double digit fantasy point games.  On the other end of the spectrum, he had games of three (5 times), two, five, and zero (three times).  Smith is a good choice for those that like the lottery and don't mind rolling the dice and guessing when a certain player will go off.  So while his 34 point performance in Week 3 against the Rams probably won that week for you, his three point showing in Week 16 might have cost you your fantasy title.  He also has to battle fellow wide receiver Anquan Boldin for touches as well as do it all Ray Rice.  Defenses know who he is now and will adjust accordingly so they don't get caught off guard like last year.  I suppose when he is playing the Patriots this year you could start him, but it's just too much of a crap shoot. 


Sleeper:  Anquan Boldin, WR
Remember him?  He also plays wide receiver for the Ravens.  Last year Boldin put up almost the same number of yards as Smith (887) but finished with three TDs.  As previously mentioned, all fantasy passing players in Baltimore are limited by conservative play calling and the touches Ray Rice gets.  I feel that people will be too low on Boldin this year and hopefully for him defenses start moving coverages Smith's way.  His best days came back when he was not the number one wide out (Arizona Cardinals with Larry Fitzgerald) and I feel like that situation could develop again to a lesser extent.  Boldin has great hands and the experience to run smart routes and be in good position, whereas Smith relies more on speed.  If Boldin's TD numbers can be bumped up, he would make an excellent addition to a fantasy team.


Bottom Line:
This is a team built for a Super Bowl run, but they'll have to run through a gauntlet of good teams to do it (4th toughest strength of schedule).  They still have a tremendous defense and potential fantasy and NFL MVP Ray Rice who will make a lot of owners happy this year.  Any players involved in this passing game is a risky venture so pick them up only if they drop or your needs are filled and you can take a chance that either Flacco or one of the receivers will catch fire.

Matty O