Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North

Cleveland Browns
Studs:  None
Sorry Browns fans, but last year was a fantasy wasteland in Cleveland.  Also, cannot put rookies like Trent Richardson here.  While he may have a good year this year, he has yet to play a down in the NFL.  So while all the physical attributes are there, I cannot endorse him as a stud.


Bust:  Trent Richardson, RB
Speaking of Richardson, I would be wary of drafting him.  Anyone who followed college football last year knows what a monster Richardson is and potentially can be in the NFL.  He has been hyped by analysts leading up to the draft as well as during rookie OTAs and mini-camp.  Unfortunately, he is on the Cleveland Browns.  He will be the center of the offense which is good in certain scenarios.  Here, it is terrible because the Browns lack a passing game.  No receiver or tight end on the roster poses a threat to defenses and the quarterback position will be filled by either rookie Brandon Weeden or sub par Colt McCoy.  Richardson will see eight or even nine man boxes in front of him from the likes of the Eagles, Bengals (twice), Steelers (twice), Ravens (twice), Giants, Cowboys, and Broncos.  Don't buy into the hype with this guy.

Sleeper:  Greg Little, WR
Little is the only receiver on the Browns that has any kind of value for fantasy, albeit limited value.  A former running back, Little has blazing speed, decent hands, and can pose problems for less talented cornerbacks or safeties.  Instead, he will be going up against the number one cornerbacks for other teams and I'm not sure if he has the talent to get it done.  Still, a fresh face at quarterback might shake things up for Little and I feel that he will get a fair share of targets.  I see him as a consistent kind of receiver who will very rarely get you huge games but rarely lose you any matchups.  He is a decent number three receiver for fantasy or at the very least a matchup or bye week fill in type player.

Bottom Line:
In this division with such great defenses (Steelers 1st overall in total defense in 2011, Ravens 3rd, and Cincinnati 7th) it looks pretty bleak for fantasy players in Cleveland.  Relying on rookies is risky, but it is what you'll have to do if you want a Browns player on your fantasy roster this year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Studs:  AJ Green, WR
In his rookie season, Green surpassed expectations and put up 1057 receiving yards and seven TDs.  He will get an enormous amount of targets as it is looking like the number two receiver in Cincinnati will be either Jordan Shipley or rookie Mohamed Sanu.  Ouch.  But good for Green.  Defenses will probably throw more double coverages his way this year, but his athleticism and leaping ability should still allow him to get his numbers.  It also makes him a consistent threat in the red zone as Andy Dalton can throw it up and count on Green to come down with it.  I don't see a sophomore slump coming for this guy as his numbers should be even higher than last year.  Consider him as a legit number one fantasy wideout.

Bust:  Andy Dalton, QB
Numbers can be deceiving.  He finished the year with 3398 passing yards, a 20 to 13 TD to INT ratio, and even ran in a score.  On paper, pretty impressive numbers for a rookie from TCU.  It also doesn't hurt that he had the guy in the "studs" section either.  A closer look, however, reveals some causes for concern.  He only averaged 10.8 fantasy points against divisional opponents and put up 5 single digit games!  Unacceptable for a fantasy quarterback.  One of those games was a 5 pointer against the porous Rams defense in week 15, the first round of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues.  The Bengals schedule this year will make it very tempting to buy into the Dalton hype.  But after the Bengals' bye week, LOOK OUT!  Home games against the Broncos, Cowboys, Raiders, Giants and Ravens.  Away games at the Chiefs, Chargers, as well as games at the Eagles and Steelers in weeks 15 and 16 (fantasy playoffs).  The sophomore slump will hit Dalton hard.  Don't be there for the fall.

Sleeper:   Jermaine Gresham, TE
Here is another tight end in one of the deepest positions this year in fantasy football.  Inconsistency has been a problem for Gresham his entire career but I expect him to be utilized more this year with teams focusing more on Green, Dalton's limited arm strength, and no solid number two receiver.  He has shown flashes of his ability so the big question is if he will get enough targets to be a fantasy factor.  He did manage to get six TDs last year and I feel like that number should and will increase this year because he is such a solid target for Dalton to throw to.  Gresham would be a nice surprise if you miss out on the highly hyped tight end names this year.


Bottom Line:
This team will be better this year, although their record won't show it.  Their brutal stretch to end the year will take a lot out of them and they will once again finish third behind the Steelers and Ravens.  Still, there are fantasy points to be had in Cincinnati but only Green has the ability to put up big time numbers.  Keep a close eye on their running back situation as well.  With Cedric Benson out of Cincinnati, it opens up an opportunity for either BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Bernard Scott to get the carries in Cincy.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs:  Mike Wallace, WR (Pending Contract), Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Defense/Special Teams
With the aging of Hines Ward, Wallace has stepped in as the new dominant receiver in Pittsburgh.  Unlike Ward, Wallace's speed is what makes him the most dangerous as he can outrun nearly every defensive player he goes up against.  He tailed off towards the end of last year, but that was coupled with an injured Roethlisberger and Brown seeing more targets.  Draft Wallace expecting the first half Wallace from last year as he finished with 1193 yards and eight TDs last year.  Of course, all of this is meaningless if he cannot come to terms with the Steelers and keeps holding out.  Neither side seems like they want to blink first so I would keep a close eye on that situation come draft day.  Just know the risk if your draft is before a contract is agreed upon.

If Wallace's contract situation doesn't pan out, then Antonio Brown becomes the number one receiver on the Steelers depth chart and a number one receiver on some fantasy teams this year.  He has Wallace's speed, better hands in my opinion, and he returns punts.  His year was the exact opposite of Wallace's as he had a slow start, but then stormed onto many team's fantasy rosters after week six.  He put up a lot of targets and receptions towards the end of last year as he gained Roethlisberger's trust.  Even if Wallace does wind up playing this year, it draws coverage away from Brown allowing him to get the one on one matchups that all receivers want.  With Wallace in, he is still one of the best number two wide receivers out there.

Roethlisberger could have done better last year.  Big Ben got injured towards the end of last year and put up games of five (twice), seven, and nine fantasy points during the season.  Despite this, he still eclipsed 4000 yards passing and showed that the Steelers are no longer simply a punishing run first team.  This will probably be emphasized even more this year as Rashard Mendenhall will start the season injured and probably won't be himself even when he does come back.  The Steelers used a first round pick on a guard and a second round pick on a tackle in this year's draft to address the occasionally shaky Steeler's offensive line.  If they can keep Big Ben upright, expect him to be slinging it around the field again this season is what all fantasy owners are looking for: opportunity.

The Steelers defense has always had a reputation for being tough, but I think the defense might have it tough this year.  They lost James Farrior and didn't do a whole lot to bolster the defense via the draft or free agency.  So while they bring back the number one total defensive unit from last year, they are getting up there in age and questionable when it comes to staying healthy.  Still, they are certainly one of the most formidable defenses in the NFL and should be among the top three defenses off the board with San Francisco and Baltimore being the two others.  Their schedule pits them against some high powered offenses but I still think they are up for the challenge.  Also don't be surprised to see speedy rookie Chris Rainey out of Florida on the return team. 

Bust:  Issac Redman, RB
What?  He didn't do anything last year.  True.  This is just a warning against people thinking that because he is the last back standing in Pittsburgh that he will get the carries and flourish.  Neither will be true.  I expect new offensive coordinator Todd Haley to focus on the pass and allow the passing game to carry the team.  Even if he does get the carries, he does not have the talent to do explosive things with it.  Since Mendenhall is injured I suppose you could chalk up a couple more TDs for Redman, but not much else.  Logic says you should draft him due to the Mendenhall injury, I say you don't due to his limited skill set and new offensive focus.  I would say you should be more focused on whether or not the Steelers decide to bolster this position through free agency instead of letting Redman run for them.

Sleeper:  Emmanuel Sanders, WR
This was the guy that was supposed to have Antonio Brown's numbers by now.  Considered a sleeper last year, it was Sanders that did the sleeping as he finished with a miserable 228 yards and two TDs, as injury also limited his play.  He should be fully healthy to start the season and be the number three receiver on the depth chart hands down.  As mentioned before, the footballs will be flying in Pittsburgh this year so the opportunity will be there.  Now that Brown and Wallace have made progress, it is Sanders that is the best kept secret on this roster.  He'll be facing weaker coverages than the other two receivers so it is on him to make a good season happen.  It is certainly in him.  Make a spot on your bench for him and see how he does the first few weeks before inserting him in your lineup.

Bottom Line:
Pass, pass, pass.  This will be the motto in Pittsburgh this year.  The receivers should put up big numbers with Big Ben making a formidable fantasy quarterback.  Trust their defense even if you hear otherwise, but stay away from the run game and Heath Miller.  No tight end love to be found here.

Baltimore Ravens
Studs:  Ray Rice, RB, Defense/Special Teams
The offense goes through him and he gets it done.  Speaking from personal experience (had Rice last year) he is as safe as it gets when it comes to running backs.  He got single digits only twice last year.  Once was the Monday Night debacle against the Jaguars when he only got eight carries and they lost 12-7.  The other time was the Harbaugh Bowl against the 49ers, but who didn't struggle running against that defense last year.  He finished as the number one ranked fantasy running back and finished with 2068 total yards and 15 total TDs.  He is one of the best, if not the best, pass catching backs in the NFL and runs behind the best fullback in the NFL in Vontae Leach.  When I was watching Ravens games last year it seemed like the ball was always in his hands, similar to how Ray Lewis seems to be all over the place for their defense.  They set up a number of screens for him and he is almost always Joe Flacco's safety valve on passing plays (Flacco checks down a lot).  He should be in the top two or three picks overall in fantasy drafts this year.

Do not overlook, but do not overemphasize the Terrell Suggs injury.  The 2011 defensive MVP probably won't be lining up for the Ravens this year which is a big loss due to his defensive prowess and ability to get to the quarterback.  Some experts have dropped this unit way too low because of that.  You shouldn't.  They still have the ageless wonder Ed Reed, linebacker Ray Lewis, 330lb. nose tackle Haloti Ngata, breakout corner from last year Ladarius Webb, and second round pick Courtney Upshaw from Alabama's talented defense.  This is a ball hawking defense that might give up more points than others, but should make up for it with their turnovers and defensive TDs. 

Bust:  Torrey Smith, WR
This is another case of a player who will come in with last year's hype and be drafted too high.  Numbers can be deceiving lesson 2:  Smith finished with 841 yards and seven receiving TDs.  Decent numbers, except that three of those TDs came in one game and he only had five double digit fantasy point games.  On the other end of the spectrum, he had games of three (5 times), two, five, and zero (three times).  Smith is a good choice for those that like the lottery and don't mind rolling the dice and guessing when a certain player will go off.  So while his 34 point performance in Week 3 against the Rams probably won that week for you, his three point showing in Week 16 might have cost you your fantasy title.  He also has to battle fellow wide receiver Anquan Boldin for touches as well as do it all Ray Rice.  Defenses know who he is now and will adjust accordingly so they don't get caught off guard like last year.  I suppose when he is playing the Patriots this year you could start him, but it's just too much of a crap shoot. 


Sleeper:  Anquan Boldin, WR
Remember him?  He also plays wide receiver for the Ravens.  Last year Boldin put up almost the same number of yards as Smith (887) but finished with three TDs.  As previously mentioned, all fantasy passing players in Baltimore are limited by conservative play calling and the touches Ray Rice gets.  I feel that people will be too low on Boldin this year and hopefully for him defenses start moving coverages Smith's way.  His best days came back when he was not the number one wide out (Arizona Cardinals with Larry Fitzgerald) and I feel like that situation could develop again to a lesser extent.  Boldin has great hands and the experience to run smart routes and be in good position, whereas Smith relies more on speed.  If Boldin's TD numbers can be bumped up, he would make an excellent addition to a fantasy team.


Bottom Line:
This is a team built for a Super Bowl run, but they'll have to run through a gauntlet of good teams to do it (4th toughest strength of schedule).  They still have a tremendous defense and potential fantasy and NFL MVP Ray Rice who will make a lot of owners happy this year.  Any players involved in this passing game is a risky venture so pick them up only if they drop or your needs are filled and you can take a chance that either Flacco or one of the receivers will catch fire.

Matty O