Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Vincent Jackson, WR
Jackson is listed here as a stud, but it is a borderline one. On the negative side, he is going to be catching footballs from Josh Freeman instead of Phillip Rivers. Downgrade for sure, despite Rivers's struggles last year. He is also moving to a place that has new head coach Greg Schiano, formerly a coach at Rutgers, that is known for favoring the run game (Ray Rice played for him at Rutgers). With new back Doug Martin, bruiser LeGarrette Blount, and Freeman's mediocre play it is possible that Jackson struggles. I am still buying. Unlike in San Diego, he will be the number one guy in the passing game. In San Diego there was Ryan Matthews (last year), Antonio Gates, and occasionally Malcolm Floyd. Tampa Bay cannot match that talent at any of those positions so expect Jackson to get targets. His physical size hasn't changed as he stands at 6'5" and 230 pounds, giving Freeman a large target to throw to. Despite Rivers's season, Jackson still managed to get over 1000 receiving yards and nine TDs albeit sporadically (6 double digit games including games of 22, 29, and 32, but 10 single digit games). I think his consistency will be better this year with more targets and can be a number one receiver, and definitely a number two.
Bust: LeGarrette Blount, RB
He might not even be a bust if people keep drafting rookie Doug Martin so high (I've done a few mock drafts and Martin has gone two - three rounds before Blount). I agree with those drafting Martin. Blount actually got benched towards the end of last year and finished the last three games with nine, two, and six carries. He wound up with only five TDs and less than 1000 yards from scrimmage. It is easy to be tempted by Blount. He did have two 19 point fantasy games last year and is a human bowling ball at 247 pounds with surprising athleticism. He has been fumble prone through his whole career, however, and could become a backup or at the best running back 1a by mid season or earlier. Limited carries means limited fantasy points. He is not as bad of a bust as others that I have mentioned in my fantasy breakdowns and could, and should, be picked up as a late round flier if the other options are terrible. Just don't expect someone you can start on a week to week basis.
Sleeper: Josh Freeman, QB
How quickly opinions change in one season. At the start of last year, the experts were saying that he was going to be an amazing fantasy quarterback after his stellar 2010 campaign. Not so fast my friend. Bit of bragging here, but I saw this coming. His weapons have always been limited, his consistency has been an issue, and people expected too much out of him when he came out in college. His 16 to 22 TD to INT ratio was a killer and a microcosm of the Bucs season as a whole as they finished 4-12, one year after contending for a playoff spot and finishing 10-6. But it was one season. He did get four rushing TDs which weren't just coincidence; he has the ability to do this. He also has new wide receiver Jackson, a more in shape and focused Mike Williams, and perhaps a stable running game in Martin. Add in the fact that he gets the Saints and Rams defenses in the fantasy playoffs (neither of which should scare your fantasy quarterback), and Freeman is a great pick in later rounds. Not a starter right away, but could develop into one or be used as trade bait.
Bottom Line:
As mentioned in the intro, this is a team with a lot of questions. Will it be the 2010 or 2011 Josh Freeman? Can Jackson make the transition from San Diego to Tampa Bay? Who is their best running back? Apart from Jackson, all Tampa Bay players should be wait and see projects to find out what their value truly is.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB, Steve Smith, WR
Once again, I saw this coming. Well, his incredible rushing statistics at least. His size, 6'5" and 248 pounds coupled with his speed, is something we have never seen at the quarterback position in the NFL. It is easy to assume that he cannot match his 14 rushing TDs that he had this year, but I'll say he will. His passing was not as good as people probably think because he eclipsed 4000 yards. Impressive, no doubt. But his numbers are inflated due to games of 374, 422, and 432. Like the rushing TDs, it is fair to say that he will not replicate that again, and this time I agree. His passing game is still a work in progress as he did not have to rely heavily on it in college, and it showed last year with a 17 INTs. All that aside, he still never had a single digit fantasy game and brings back essentially the same offense as last year as well as second round pick and offensive tackle Amini Silatolu. Fantasy starter material.
If there is one face you can count on seeing when it comes to the Panthers, it is Steve Smith. He is going to be entering his 12th season with the franchise this year. People had their doubts if his ability was still there, and if Smith was still in Carolina's future. Enter 2012 and Newton. Smith's skills were always there, but the quarterback's skill wasn't (see: Jimmy Clausen). Last year he went off for 1394 yards and seven TDs as his chemistry with Newton was apparent and he was thrown to early and often. This catch against the Saints last year shows that Smith's athleticism and desire is still there even though he will be 33 this season (video also highlights Newton's ability as well). Very rarely will Smith have a down week because of the targets he gets. I think you might see a slight decline in numbers this year, but nothing significant. He is a number one or two wide out easy.
Bust: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Mike Tolbert, RB, Jonathan Stewart, RB
People fall into the draft Carolina running backs trap every year. Now they added Mike Tolbert from the Chargers who was known for vulturing TDs from Ryan Matthews in San Diego, as well as filling in nicely as a replacement when Matthews went down with injuries. By themselves and on different teams, they are probably all fantasy starters. Unfortunately, they all culminate in a crowded backfield trying to get rushing TDs away from not just the other running backs, but Newton as well. The best way to sum them up would be that Williams is the speed back and the one who can break it at any moment. Tolbert is your best bet for the short yards and TDs. Stewart is probably the best overall back of all of them, but who knows what week and how many carries he will get. That's the thing. If we knew who would get the majority of the carries from week to week, then these guys would be easily draftable. Instead, owners of any of these three backs could be jumping for joy one week, then screaming, "why are you putting _______ in?" as __________ scores the touchdown from your guy. Have your blood pressure checked during the season.
Sleeper: Brandon LaFell, WR
Hey, the Panthers have another receiver on their team not named Smith. Legedu Naanee somehow was the Panther's number two receiver last year, but he is gone leaving that slot to be filled by LaFell with no serious competition in sight. He gained 613 receiving yards and three TDs which really isn't that bad for a number three receiver. He will have to share attention with Smith, but will also see coverages move towards Smith early on. Here's some of his highlights from last year. As you can see, he has good hands, is aggressive attacking the ball, and knows what to do after he catches the ball. All things you want in a great receiver and an almost identical description to Steve Smith, although not as fast in my opinion. I could see him moving up as high as a number two wide receiver on your fantasy team this year, maybe even number one if you loaded up on running backs and/or quarterback in your draft. This guy should definitely be drafted.
Bottom Line:
While I won't go Ryan Kalil and say that the Panthers will win the Super Bowl, I will say that they get the to playoffs and, wait for it, win their division. They get on and off the field leader Jon Beason back as well as new hyped linebacker Luke Kuechly out of Boston College to help their struggling defense (despite these additions do not draft this D). Newton will now have a year under his belt and a true off season to work with the offense. Although the Tolbert addition will drive fantasy owners crazy, it should also drive opposing defenses crazy as the Panthers have a multitude of ways to attack teams now.
Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Roddy White, WR, Julio Jones, WR
Very rarely are there two wide outs on a team with this much skill. Such is the case here. White is the veteran. The chemistry he has with quarterback Matt Ryan is impeccable as he has become Ryan's security blanket since Ryan was a rookie. He led the league in targets last year and has never missed a game in his career! Insane. People will overemphasize Jones's threat to White's numbers this year and White could fall into your lap. Jones is a threat, as I will get to later, but White is the proven one and his route running is much better than Jones's. He is one of the most consistent receivers in the game and you can feel very safe drafting him as your number one wide out.
Here is one guy that I got wrong. I thought coming out of Alabama that he was overrated and that he did not impress me against SEC defenses. It's looking like he can ball. While battling a hamstring injury, Jones finished with 959 yards and 8 TDs. Even though White has the experience and route running, Jones has the athleticism and leaping ability to be a receiving threat, especially in the red zone. With veteran Tony Gonzalez getting older, expect Jones to see more looks and balls his way especially after their bye week. If he can stay healthy, and that is a minor if because he played in 12 out of a possible 16 games, he will become number one fantasy wide receiver status.
Bust: Michael Turner, RB
It kills me to say it because I watched him since he was "The Burner" at NIU, (should have won or at least been a candidate for the 2003 Heisman Trophy by the way) but I think Turner's best days are behind him. He did get 1340 rushing yards and 11 TDs last year, but started to fade towards the end (a 29 point performance in Week 17 against the awful Bucs run D doesn't suffice). He is 30, playing on a team with two tremendous wide receivers. I know the Falcons have wanted to pound the rock with Turner since he came over from San Diego, but should they. Let your franchise quarterback sling it around to those two talented receivers and use Turner as a change of pace player, not the other way around. He looked tired towards the end of last season and I think it will continue into this year. They have Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers waiting in the wings and ready to take over for him at any time. Because of the Falcon's philosophy and Turner's skill, he could still be a fantasy factor, but don't be afraid to pull him if he struggles early.
Sleeper: Matt Ryan, QB
Matt Ryan, or Matty Ice, is a solid quarterback, but does not get the fantasy attention that others do. He threw for over 4000 yards last year with a respectable 29 to 12 TD to INT ratio. He also discovered a new target in Jones last year who can turn an errant pass into a catch. I'm not exactly sure what they have against him. Is it that the Falcons like to run the ball? Do people think he is conservative? Is he overshadowed by the other quarterbacks in his division? I'm not exactly sure. Even in the mock drafts I've done, people avoid him like the plague. I'm high on Ryan this year. He is a definite fantasy starter and, bold statement, could finish in the top 5 in fantasy points for quarterbacks.
Bottom Line:
This team is stacked in the passing game with fantasy goodness. You might even consider taking an aging Tony Gonzalez, although his wear and tear might prove to be too much this year. Keep an eye on the running back scenario and when or if, the Falcons move away from Turner in exchange for Snelling or Rodgers. The offense will churn along, but the defense will cause the Falcons to finish third behind the Panthers and Saints. Big points in the process though so pick up Jones, White, and Ryan.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Darren Sproles, RB
Not a lot of explaining or questioning to do here with Brees. He got the contract situation resolved and is looking to repeat or better his record setting 5476 yard 46 TD performance he had last year. I think he will, but slightly under as those numbers were astronomical. He is a first round pick with who carries no extra baggage such as off the field problems or injuries.
Graham joined the recent trend of tight ends becoming significant players in the passing game. He finished with 1310 receiving yards and 11 TDs. The most telling statistic I saw that should give you confidence in drafting him high is that he had 149 targets, which was more than every wide receiver but five last year! Don't expect those numbers to fall drastically. He is a reliable target and serious red zone threat. Considering the Saints do not have a true pound the ball in threat, they can use Graham on roll outs or fades to get mismatches in coverage when they are close to the goal line. He should be the second tight end taken off the board, behind the Gronk, and could go as early as the second round.
Sproles scampered his way to a fantastic fantasy season last year as he provided the ultimate dual threat running for 603 yards and gaining 710 receiving yards with nine overall touchdowns. I do have my doubts. Sproles will not be a between the tackles guy and relies on targets in the passing game from Brees which can be distributed in a massive number of ways. Offenses like this scare me unless you have the quarterback just because it is so hard to predict who will have the big game that week. Sproles still presents a reliable option at back because of his quickness and the fact that defenses cannot key in on one guy (the flip side of not knowing who will have the big game is neither will the defense).
Bust: Marques Colston, WR
He will be drafted high and will probably be in starting lineups throughout the season. The problem is that he will fall to a number three receiver as the season progresses. The "too many targets" theory holds here for Colston as he has been replaced by Graham as Brees's go to guy. No real progress was made in getting rid of Robert Meachem as they drafted Nick Toon in the forth round and still have Lance Moore and Devery Henderson on the roster. Colston has the skills to be the number one guy and he is definitely one of my riskier bust predictions, but you should be cautious nonetheless.
Sleeper: Lance Moore, WR
Similar to Colston, I'm not too confident in this prediction, but it is certainly worth tracking or even drafting him late. I was surprised to find out that he actually led all Saints receivers the past two seasons, despite his mediocre yards total (627 last year). Brees's pass attempts makes any receiver on this team a viable option and Moore can be a key contributor. The yards are certainly a risk, but he will be in on the majority of the Saint's formations and might finally click with Brees this year and steal some targets away from Colston and Graham.
Bottom Line:
For starters, the bounty punishments will not affect this team as much as you might think. The defense was never the strength of this team anyways except for their Super Bowl winning year when they relied on turnovers to get the job done. Their offense, however, will be as strong as ever. Just know that apart from Drew Brees, it is hard to tell who will have the big game.
Matty O.
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