Well, the streak finally ended. The Hawks lost in regulation Friday night to the Avalanche in Denver. During this phenomenal run, the Hawks have established themselves as the best team in the NHL and the popular pick to win the Stanley Cup. This blog post is simply meant to temper expectations and remind people that this team is not perfect. All it takes is four losses in May and the season is over. It's certainly easy to go after a team right after this loss, but I think this streak of theirs has masked problems along the way, some of which have carried over from last season, and is something that Hawks fans should consider before handing them the Stanley Cup.
Goaltending
I think Hawks fans forgot how much they hated Corey Crawford following last year's playoffs. Wasn't that an off-season area of interest? Hockey is the ultimate team game, but Crawford was clearly to blame for some relatively soft goals he gave up during last year's first round exit to Phoenix. This year, however, he's been outstanding (at least when he's not injured). When Crawford needs a rest or when he got injured, Ray Emery of all people stepped in and played extremely well in Crawford's absence. In fact, all four of the Hawks losses have come with Crawford in net. The Hawks currently rank fourth in goals against in the NHL, having only given up 52. But for anyone watching the Colorado game Friday night, it seemed like Crawford went back to his old self and gave up some goals that a top tier goalie just doesn't let in.
Just looking at the Western Conference playoff teams, I don't believe Crawford is in the top 5 goalies. Since joining the Hawks, he has yet to get them out of the first round as they lost to Vancouver in 2011 and to the Coyotes last year. Emery, although playing well as of now, is a journeyman type player and has bounced around all over the place. Since 2004, he has been on eight different teams, including the Blackhawks. For hockey fans that knew who Emery was before he came to the Hawks, probably knew him better for his fighting skills than his goal tending skills. I really think they need to find a more stable backup either in free agency or a trade before the playoffs. The Avs showed what happens when you have bad goaltending. Add in the fact that playoffs have not been Crawford's strong suit, and you have the recipe for another first round exit.
Shootouts
This is a bit of a minor point, but still a factor nonetheless. The Hawks have had six games go to a shootout, winning three and losing three. Those six shootout appearances are more than anyone in the Eastern Conference and only less than the Ducks, Canucks, and Sharks in the Western Conference. Why is this a concern? Well, playoff hockey does not involve a shootout unless there is a penalty on a breakaway. I would also point out that shootouts give the Hawks a great advantage. I'm actually surprised their ratio in shootouts isn't better than .500. Anytime you can roll out a three man shootout lineup of Toews, Kane, and Hossa/Sharp, I'd say that puts you ahead of 90% of teams in the league. Who knows what happens if those games keep going? Maybe those losses turn into wins and maybe those wins turn into losses. All I know is that in the playoffs, a definite advantage will be taken away from the Hawks. Anyone can score 5 on 5, but because of the Hawks' skill players, it makes their shootout lineup deadly.
Does Speed Cover For Skill?
Barry Melrose, a hockey analyst on ESPN, pretty much called this game like it happened. He said the streak would end in Denver because the Avs could skate with the Hawks and they should have beat them a few days earlier, but couldn't pull through in the end. "Could skate with the Hawks" is the key phrase there. Anyone that watches the Hawks knows they are scary fast. I've lost count of how many times this year I've seen an opposing player come up the ice, and Hossa uses his speed to catch up, back check, and steal or disrupt the puck. That's great, when you're playing the right team. Can Toews and Kane snap off some scary shots? Yes. Do they have great stick work and handles? Yes. But I think Melrose was correct in his analysis; if there is a fast enough team out there, then this Hawks team can be beat and exposed.
In my opinion, I don't think there are many teams in the West that can accomplish this. Obviously the Avs are one of those teams. Their record against the Hawks? A 6-2 blow out win and a 3-2 loss in Chicago. Another team that I think fits this billing, which may come as a surprise, are the Columbus Blue Jackets. They leave a lot to be desired skill wise (although they are much better now that Jack Johnson is healthy), but they have some speed. They currently sit in last place. Yet, their record against the Hawks? A 3-2 loss at home, a 1-0 loss and a 4-3 overtime loss in Chicago. Not exactly the kind of scores you want against a team that you're ahead of by 25 points in the standings. I think teams that try to be physical with the Hawks won't be able to because of the speed. Look at a team like the San Jose Sharks. They have physical players in spades yet have losses of 5-3, 4-1, and 2-1 against the Hawks this year. I'm not saying they should stop using their speed, because it's clearly a strength, but if they encounter a team of similar skating skill, they could be in trouble.
Am I Lucky or Clutch?
21-1-3 is the Hawks record. Of those 21 wins, 16 have come by one goal or about 76%. By comparison, the Montreal Canadiens, who are first in the Eastern Conference, have seen 6 out of their 15 wins come by one goal, or 40%. Winning by one goal is exciting for the fans and probably for the players, but doesn't really do much to assert your dominance. Some of these games have been decided in the third with clutch goals and fantastic goaltending, so there is certainly some clutch gene and skill involved. At some point though, it would make me more comfortable to see a truly dominant game turned in. If you are considered the best in the NHL and have a historic streak going on, I don't think it's too much to ask for to have a game against a quality opponent that truly wows you. Against the other top four teams in the Western Conference (home ice for playoffs), the Hawks are 3-2 with all of those games being decided by...you guessed it, one goal. This is good for regular season points, but not so good for confidence heading into the playoffs.
Eastern Conference
Hopefully my readers are aware that the Hawks have not, and will not play anyone in the Eastern Conference this year due to the condensed schedule. Unfortunately for the Hawks, to win the Cup, they will eventually have to play a seven game series against one of those teams. Even more bad news? The last place team in the East (New York Rangers) would be tied for fifth in the Western Conference if the playoffs started today. My point? There are some real quality teams in the East that haven't gotten a shot to stop the streak the Hawks are on. There's a good chance one of them would have too.
I would say the top four teams in the East (Montreal, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Boston), as well as the Rangers if they ever figure it out, could challenge and/or beat the Hawks in a seven game series. All five teams have better goalies than the Hawks, hands down with Carey Price, Marc Andre-Fleury, Cam Ward (when healthy), Tuukka Rask, and Henrik Lundqvist. Chicago has their big three of Kane, Toews, and Hossa, but Pittsburgh counters with perhaps an even greater big three of Malkin, Crosby, and Neal. Depth wise, I might take Boston over any of these teams as their second line is a legitimate starting line on any other team. The Canadiens have struck gold this year with two young standouts in Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher. With P.K. Subban back into the swing of things after his holdout, the Canadiens are looking like a very dangerous team come April/May.
I have my doubts about the Rangers and Canes being true threats to the Hawks and/or Stanley Cup, but on paper, their teams are ridiculous. The Canes boast both Eric and Jordan Staal as well as former Capitals star Alexander Semin who is on pace for a point per game this season. The Rangers, meanwhile, have arguably the best one-two punch in the NHL with Rick Nash and Marion Gaborik, although they rarely play on the same line together. Nash and Gaborik and two of the best scorers in the league, mainly because they came from teams where they were the guy and had to carry everyone else (Nash with Columbus, Gaborik with Minnesota). As good as Keith and Seabrook are, I guarantee they'd have their hands full with the likes of those players. Big, fast, and high hockey IQ. If the Hawks want to raise that Cup, they'll have to slay one of these beasts from the East.
Even with that loss on Friday night, all is still well in Blackhawk land. They're still in first place by eight points in the Western Conference. I don't think they will reach another streak like this anytime soon, not because of their opponents, but because of Sharp's injury which will keep him out 3-4 weeks. They'll have him back in time for the playoffs, but I think that was a significant loss that might get overlooked since he's on the second line and not named Kane, Hossa, or Toews. Regardless, they'll probably still get the number one seed and home ice advantage throughout the playoffs, including the Stanley Cup, if they make it that far. Just be aware of the above concerns. Next time you watch their games, see how lucky or clutch they truly are. Observe how much they rely on speed. Watch an Eastern Conference game and tell me honestly if the Hawks are that much better than any of them. So what will the Hawks 2013 season be remembered for? Best record? Probably. Memorable streak? Check. Stanley Cup? Not so fast.
Matty O
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