1st place regular season, 3rd place playoffs (14-team PPR), 9th place (12-team Standard). This season had its share of ups and downs, twists and turns. In my PPR league, I started off okay, then rattled off seven straight wins to win the regular season. In my standard league, I felt like the Dallas Cowboys as of late. Just when it looked like I was on a roll and creeping into the playoffs, I suffered a big loss when I really needed a win and put myself behind the 8 ball. Now that it's over, it's time to take a look back at all the craziness of these past several weeks.
Best Draft Pick
DeMarco Murray (RB - Cowboys)
Honestly, I didn't really even want to draft him. I put him under my bust section in my fantasy football preview because of his past injury concerns and the Cowboys' baffling refusal to run the football. Both of those things actually happened, but he was still a great pick. I was able to snag him late in the 3rd round of a 14 team league with players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden taken ahead of Murray in the same round. By the time my pick rolled around, the value was too good to pass up. He did miss his usual couple games (Weeks 7 and 8), but excelled when he was on the field. As an added bonus, he played his best football at the end of the year including a three TD performance in Week 13 when a lot of on the fence owners needed a win to secure a playoff berth. His injuries still concern me, but Murray could be a first round, top 10 pick next year in fantasy drafts.
Worst Draft Pick
Stevan Ridley (RB - Patriots)
My standard league actually had a lot of candidates for this spot, but I'll go with Ridley due to the frustration he caused me. As Ridley owners know, he started off the season at a snail's pace posting rushing yards of 46, 40, 35, and 53. This is from a guy who was a second round pick in most leagues. Then, all of a sudden, he caught fire and played good football from Weeks 6-9. Unfortunately, that's also the time when the rest of my team decided to play their worst football, as I went 1-3 during that stretch. Then, following the Patriots' bye, Ridley put up a solid game in Carolina, but his chronic fumbling problem reared its ugly head once again as he was back in Bill Belichick's doghouse. He would never fully recover from that game as he lost carries to LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen. He was even a healthy inactive for the Week 13 Houston game. After this season, it's tough to tell what Ridley's future holds.
Best Waiver Pickup
Zac Stacy (RB - Rams)
I was fortunate enough to pick him up in both my leagues, mostly due to the fact that I had been starting the other Rams' running back Daryl Richardson as my RB2. Had I not been starting Richardson, I probably wouldn't have even picked Stacy up. I thought he would post okay numbers based on sheer volume, but nothing more than that. Instead, Stacy became a carrying and TD machine as he did his best to make the Rams forget about Steven Jackson. Just watching him was impressive as he always seemed to move the pile forward and read blocks well. I wound up trading him in my PPR league for DeSean Jackson so he still was an asset to my team when I picked him up. It's hard to find that kind of production off the waiver wire. Stacy will be a hot commodity next year as he will have a year under his belt, as the Rams hopefully find a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Jacob Tamme (TE - Broncos)
Of course, the one time I get to start a Bronco it doesn't work out for me. With Jordan Reed concussed, I was in quite a bind at tight end. Then, in Week 14, Wes Welker got injured and it was Tamme who filled in at Welker's slot position. Welker was out Week 15, and I was happy. All the experts were saying that Tamme would fill Welker's slot role and, in a PPR league, that means a good stat line. Unfortunately, that honor wound up going to Andre Caldwell of all people as Tamme was held to one catch for nine yards. This was in the semi-finals of my playoffs and was one of the reasons why I played in the third place game instead of the Championship. Apart from the every week starters (Gronk, Jordan Cameron, Reed, Gonzo, Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates), tight end was very hit or miss this year. I missed badly on this one.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Drew Brees (QB - Saints)
Believe it or not, there was a time when I proposed a trade that would send Drew Brees away and put Eli Manning on my team (a few other players were involved, but these two would have swung my season). Let me justify this proposal. It was right after Week 1 when Brees did his Brees thing and put up good numbers, but Eli also had a monster game as he threw for 450 yards and 4 TDs (passing TDs were worth 6 pts. in this league). Being a Cowboys fan, I knew the NFC East, Manning's division, had extremely bad defenses so I was intrigued. He had Victor Cruz and a healthy Hakeem Nicks so the weapons were there. Thankfully, this trade was rejected. Had it not been, I likely would have wound up towards the bottom of my league as Manning went in the tank, throwing interception after interception.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Alshon Jeffery (WR - Bears)
A surprising amount of options to choose from, but I'll go with Jeffery for you Bears fans out there. He was in my Sleeper section in 2012 as well, but I put him in the 2013 Sleeper section again because I knew he would be a monster. Jeffery has freakish athletic ability and made Calvin Johnson-like catches this year. He had a couple dud games (Weeks 2, 6, and 12), but his highs were awesome. The best moment for Jeffery owners was a 249 yard, 2 TD performance in a losing effort in Week 13 in Minnesota. I think it will be very interesting to see what the Bears do with their WR situation now. Do they keep both and try to build a juggernaut on offense or trade one to help out the defensive side of the ball which was atrocious this year? Marshall has one more year left on his deal so it will be interesting to see if they try and get something for him instead of just letting him walk.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Ryan Broyles (WR - Lions)
Lots of options to choose from again, but I'll stay in the NFC North and go with a hugely disappointing Lions receiver. Broyles showed some promise last year and Titus Young was out of the picture so he was the clear number three behind Megatron and Nate Burleson. The Lions like to throw it all over the place so I thought Broyles would really step it up this year and be a valuable part of fantasy teams, especially in PPR. Things didn't go as planned as he never topped 34 yards in a game, put up multiple zeroes, and ultimately injured himself once again. After excelling at the University of Oklahoma, Broyles' stock has plummeted after only a couple years in the league. I doubt he is part of the Lions' plan moving forward.
Best Bust Prediction
Robert Griffin III (QB - Redskins)
There were certainly players in my bust sections that did worse than RG3, but with all the hype coming into this year, especially after the way he took the league by storm last year, he certainly did not live up to expectations in 2013. He did have a few good games here and there, but it was obvious that his speed wasn't where it was last year coming off his injury. As I've mentioned before, he's really not that great of a passer so when he can't run, or at least have the threat of the run, he will struggle. See the Denver game where, given Washington's porous defense, RG3 was going to have to match Peyton Manning point for point. RG3 finished with 132 yards, 1 TD, and 3 turnovers. He eventually got shut down at the end of the year, and wasn't even available for owners in the Championship week. It'll be interesting to see what moves are made in Washington this off season.
Worst Bust Prediction
DeMarco Murray (RB - Cowboys)
See above.
Other Notes
First Round Minefield
In 2013, the first round of most drafts was littered with busts. Adrian Peterson had decent numbers, but didn't do anything the final three weeks of the season for owners. Arian Foster and Doug Martin haven't played a snap since Week 7. Ray Rice and Trent Richardson were the kings of under performing this year. CJ Spiller had injury problems once again and shared the backfield with aging Fred Jackson. It was a mess at the top and you had to pray to get out alive. Luckily I wound up selecting Megatron (PPR) and Marshawn Lynch (Standard). If you made it out of the first round with either of those two, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy, you were probably on the right track.
Know When To Cut Bait
When it comes to trading players, or even clearing up a roster spot, it's important to know when a player is going to start struggling. It's important to know why a player is excelling and if that will continue or is just a phase. I'll use two Patriots that I owned as an example. Kenbrell Thompkins was a guy I selected in both my leagues because Tom Brady was throwing him the ball, Gronk and Aaron Hernandez were out, and Wes Welker was gone. His stock was at its highest after Week 4 when he posted back to back great numbers with a two TD performance in Week 3 and a 127 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 4. With that in mind, I pulled the trigger and traded him in both my leagues as it is rare for a rookie to keep on that pace, and Gronk was coming back. Thompkins stalled the rest of the way and was basically a non factor after Week 4.
Stevan Ridley, however, is an example of where I held on for too long. Granted, it was much harder to see this coming, and all it took was one fumble to make him irrelevant. Still, trading him when his value was at his peak would have saved me frustration, and possibly my team. Instead, I decided to ride it out as Ridley did absolutely nothing down the stretch. My team subsequently packed it in and we settled for the consolation bracket.
Who Would've Thunk It?
The best, and sometimes most frustrating, part about fantasy football is the uncertainty. Who would've guessed that the Giant's offense would have been this bad? Who would've guessed the Chiefs and Panthers defenses would have been this good? Who would've guessed that owners would be favoring Josh McCown over Jay Cutler? The uncertainty is what makes it so exciting. Like any other type of gambling, you can do all the analysis and improve you odds all you want, but all it takes it that one number or hand to trump you. You might have Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles, but if they put up bad games and your opponent has some backup wide receiver break off an 80 yard TD run, you could be in trouble. This season was great, and 2014 should be even funner. Hopefully you'll play fantasy football again, or try it out if you haven't already.
Matty O
Hope you had a Happy Holiday and have a Happy New Year
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Breaking Down The Craziness of Week 15
Closer and closer, we inch towards the NFL playoffs. Only four of the twelve spots have been clinched thus far (Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis). While this past weekend was supposed to clear things up, I feel like it only made things more confusing. Numerous teams that were supposed to take care of business failed to do so. Some teams lost their games, but still control their fate (Dallas), while other teams won their games, but got booted from the one through six seeds in their conference (Miami). Here is a review of the bizzare scores and story lines from a whacky Week 15 in the NFL.
NFC East
Say what you will about the quality of play in this division, you cannot deny the entertainment value attached to these four teams on a week to week basis. The New York Giants were probably the most boring team from this division in Week 15 as they continued their awful season, losing 23-0 and gaining a grand total of 181 yards. The Redskins, meanwhile, may have gotten more news coverage on ESPN this week, than any 3-10 team has ever gotten. The drama surrounding Mike Shanahan and the quarterback situation finally got a bit of rest as the 'Skins actually had to play a game in the Georgia Dome against an equally disappointing Atlanta Falcons team. There was one stat in this game that showed how embarrassing these two teams have been this year: Washington's turnovers.
The 'Skins had seven turnovers, yet the Falcons only won by one point. There was one sequence where on three plays in a row, there was a turnover (Alfred Morris fumble, Matt Ryan sack and fumble, then a completion to Santana Moss and he fumbled). Then, wanting to keep things interesting, the Redskins decide to go for two after they scored a TD with 18 seconds left to make the score 27-26. Look, I understand their logic. You're on the road, with a chance to win, and it's not like another loss will hurt (Rams fans were rejoicing when this decision happened as they have Washington's first round pick). The problem I have was that if the Redskins were really trying to win that game, you kick the PAT for overtime. You have all the momentum, and turnovers have been the only thing that have halted your offense. They gained 476 yards on a 29th ranked defense! Shanahan decided against this, went for two, and failed. The 'Skins nightmare season continues and it feels like only a matter of time before Shanahan is out the door.
The real fun started in the Philly-Minnesota game as the Eagles needed to keep pace with the Cowboys. This seemed like a dream game for the Eagles. After playing through a snow apocalypse last week, they got to move their high flying offense indoors. The Vikings, despite their record, have played teams tough down the stretch, but I don't think anyone expected the Vikes to win this game. Matt Cassel looked like he was back in New England, Greg Jennings looked like he was back in Green Bay, and Matt Asiata is a player in the NFL. Surprisingly, they were able to out shoot the Eagles en route to a 48-30 victory, with most of the Eagles' points coming in the second half. There was now legit concern in Philly as they opened the door for Dallas to really put a good hold on the division. But remember, it's the Cowboys. They want to be the stars of this soap opera.
Rather than win against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Cowboys decided to make things interesting. 26-3 at the half. Game over. 'Boys win. "Let's just run the ball in the second half and control the clock," said Jason Garrett never. Rather than go with a rational game plan, the Cowboys decided to air it out in the second half. Do they have the weapons to do so? Yes, of course. But the Cowboys needed first downs to move the chains and kill the clock, not necessarily TDs. Keep in mind, DeMarco Murray averaged 7.4 yards per carry that game. The fact that he wound up with less carries than Eddie Lacy even though the Packers were trailing most of the game, is ridiculous. Watching this game, I kept thinking, 'Here we go again.'
Rather than follow Football 101, the 'Boys allowed Matt Flynn to lead the Packers on a comeback for the ages, and possibly the one that gets Garrett fired (especially if they don't make the playoffs). The most amazing part of this whole drama, however, is that it's actually the Cowboys who still control their own destiny. Despite this meltdown, if they win out, they will win the NFC East. They face the Redskins this week, and face the Eagles in Week 17, most likely with the division on the line. Predicting this division is impossible, but the games are entertaining as heck. Even if you're not affiliated with any of these teams, you should try and catch a couple of their games. They'll make you laugh, cry, scratch your head, make you say 'ooh' and 'aah,' and keep you on the edge of your seat.
Drama Division, Part II
Not to be outdone, the NFC North is also making a play for their own drama. Quarterback drama dominated the headlines this past weekend as Aaron Rodgers couldn't go, Matt Cassel did go, and Jay Cutler returned to a Bears' fan base that seems to have zero love for him. The Packers, with that miracle win at Dallas, are somehow still in the thick of things. That defense is awful, but if they get A-Rod back, it could be trouble for the rest of the division. They get the Steelers at home and close out the season in the Windy City, so it's by no means an easy stretch run. Still, if A-Rod is at full health, it gives the Packers a shot to make some noise.
The Lions, meanwhile, had everything going for them. They swept the first place Bears earlier in the season, and have their final two games against teams with losing records in domes (home vs Giants, at Minnesota). They also have, I believe, the most talent of any team in the North. Unfortunately, talent alone doesn't win you games. Megatron had some terrible drops last night as the Lions lost to the Ravens, despite Baltimore not even scoring a TD. They looked like the classic Lions with dumb penalties, questionable play calling (empty backfield on 3rd and 1?!), and Stafford driving fans crazy with his passes going everywhere. With that loss, they actually fall to third in the division and are in real danger of being out of the playoffs before Week 17 even comes around. Even if they are still in it, I fully expect them to choke away that opportunity in their last game at Minnesota.
The Bears, meanwhile, had their own drama begin before the game even started. The decision to bench Josh McCown and start Jay Cutler was met with more than its fair share of critics. I thought the criticism was completely unwarranted. I also thought it was a good thing this game was played in Cleveland and not Chicago. I guarantee you that on Cutler's first bad incompletion, and especially on that pick 6, that he would have gotten booed unmercifully. Who knows what that would have done to his psyche. Despite a rocky start, Cutler was able to rally the troops and beat a fairly stout Cleveland defense to the tune of 31 offensive points with him contributing to 21 of them. Would McCown have thrown for 400 yards and 5 TDs? Maybe, but going back to Cutler was certainly the right decision, and he should start as long as he's healthy.
AFC Top Teams Falter
Denver, New England, and Cincinnati all had a chance to make a move for a playoff bye and home field advantage in the AFC. All three had winnable games. All three faltered. It started Thursday night when the Broncos welcomed San Diego to Mile High. San Diego gave them a scare the first time they played, but Denver prevailed. Surprisingly, it was San Diego's defense, and not Phillip Rivers and the offense, that won this game for the Chargers. They held a Wes Welker-less Broncos team to only 295 total yards en route to a 27-20 victory. The Chargers remain on life support for the playoffs, while the Broncos left the door open for the Patriots to nab home field as the Pats beat the Broncos in a Week 12 thriller.
Rather than seize the opportunity, the Pats came up yards short against an improved, but beatable, Dolphins team. Still, when the Dolphins scored with 1:15 left and the crowd was going crazy, I was thinking that they left too much time on the clock. Brady will get the ball back, do his Brady thing, and crush the hearts of Dolphins fans. Well, almost did. He even converted a fourth down that would have won it for the Dolphins. Instead, he marched them down the field and had a couple good shots at the end zone. One was dropped by Amendola and the other should have been a defensive pass interference call as he was trying to get it to Michael Hoomanawanui. His final pass guaranteed they would stay in second place in the AFC for one more week as it was intercepted in the end zone. Not quite enough Brady magic.
The Bengals, playing on Sunday Night Football, were able to see all the carnage happen to the teams ahead of them. They could now move into a tie with New England for the second seed, and put distance between themselves and Baltimore for the AFC North crown. Everything fell apart in Pittsburgh as the Bengals weren't able to do anything. The Steelers defense played like the defense of old as they held the Bengals to only 57 total rushing yards, forcing Andy Dalton to throw 44 times. That is not a recipe for success for the Bengals. Now, since the Bengals lost to the Ravens earlier this year, it is actually Baltimore that controls their own destiny. If the Ravens win out (home vs Pats, at Bengals), it will be them that win the division crown and a home playoff game. They'll need to find some more offense as field goals likely won't get it done against the Patriots like it did last night, but the opportunity is at least there for them to take.
The Curious Case of the New Orleans Saints
Never before have I seen such a discrepancy between a team's performance when they are at home and when they are on the road. They've looked scary good at home this year, and I would probably pick them to beat anyone in the Superdome, including Seattle and Denver. Once they leave those confines, however, it's like they forget how to play football. Their only comfortable road game this year was in Chicago, and even that got hairy at the end. Their other ones? A two point win over the Josh Freeman, yes that Josh Freeman, led Bucs, a three point loss to New England, a loss to the lowly Jets, a four point win over a struggling Atlanta team, an absolute beat down loss in Seattle, and most recently an 11 point loss to the Kellen Clemens led Rams. Bummer.
There was one point in the St. Louis game where Brees had 0 TDs and 2 interceptions, while Clemens had 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The players are still the same, the coaches are still the same, they just can't seem to get it done on the road. Up next is a trip to Carolina, a team they just destroyed in the Superdome a couple of weeks ago. I'm not one to bet against Drew Brees, mainly because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that he and the Saints will struggle and lose this game. They squeaked out wins against bad Tampa and Atlanta teams, but Carolina will show up to play having that awful Sunday Night Football performance fresh in their minds. With a very good defense and ball control offense, I could see the Panthers winning this one comfortably and making the race for the number two seed in the NFC very interesting.
Current Playoff Standings (As of today)
AFC NFC
1. Denver 1. Seattle
2. New England 2. New Orleans
3. Cincinnati 3. Philly
4. Indianapolis 4. Chicago
5. Kansas City 5. Carolina
6. Baltimore 6. San Fran
Matty O
NFC East
Say what you will about the quality of play in this division, you cannot deny the entertainment value attached to these four teams on a week to week basis. The New York Giants were probably the most boring team from this division in Week 15 as they continued their awful season, losing 23-0 and gaining a grand total of 181 yards. The Redskins, meanwhile, may have gotten more news coverage on ESPN this week, than any 3-10 team has ever gotten. The drama surrounding Mike Shanahan and the quarterback situation finally got a bit of rest as the 'Skins actually had to play a game in the Georgia Dome against an equally disappointing Atlanta Falcons team. There was one stat in this game that showed how embarrassing these two teams have been this year: Washington's turnovers.
The 'Skins had seven turnovers, yet the Falcons only won by one point. There was one sequence where on three plays in a row, there was a turnover (Alfred Morris fumble, Matt Ryan sack and fumble, then a completion to Santana Moss and he fumbled). Then, wanting to keep things interesting, the Redskins decide to go for two after they scored a TD with 18 seconds left to make the score 27-26. Look, I understand their logic. You're on the road, with a chance to win, and it's not like another loss will hurt (Rams fans were rejoicing when this decision happened as they have Washington's first round pick). The problem I have was that if the Redskins were really trying to win that game, you kick the PAT for overtime. You have all the momentum, and turnovers have been the only thing that have halted your offense. They gained 476 yards on a 29th ranked defense! Shanahan decided against this, went for two, and failed. The 'Skins nightmare season continues and it feels like only a matter of time before Shanahan is out the door.
The real fun started in the Philly-Minnesota game as the Eagles needed to keep pace with the Cowboys. This seemed like a dream game for the Eagles. After playing through a snow apocalypse last week, they got to move their high flying offense indoors. The Vikings, despite their record, have played teams tough down the stretch, but I don't think anyone expected the Vikes to win this game. Matt Cassel looked like he was back in New England, Greg Jennings looked like he was back in Green Bay, and Matt Asiata is a player in the NFL. Surprisingly, they were able to out shoot the Eagles en route to a 48-30 victory, with most of the Eagles' points coming in the second half. There was now legit concern in Philly as they opened the door for Dallas to really put a good hold on the division. But remember, it's the Cowboys. They want to be the stars of this soap opera.
Rather than win against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Cowboys decided to make things interesting. 26-3 at the half. Game over. 'Boys win. "Let's just run the ball in the second half and control the clock," said Jason Garrett never. Rather than go with a rational game plan, the Cowboys decided to air it out in the second half. Do they have the weapons to do so? Yes, of course. But the Cowboys needed first downs to move the chains and kill the clock, not necessarily TDs. Keep in mind, DeMarco Murray averaged 7.4 yards per carry that game. The fact that he wound up with less carries than Eddie Lacy even though the Packers were trailing most of the game, is ridiculous. Watching this game, I kept thinking, 'Here we go again.'
Rather than follow Football 101, the 'Boys allowed Matt Flynn to lead the Packers on a comeback for the ages, and possibly the one that gets Garrett fired (especially if they don't make the playoffs). The most amazing part of this whole drama, however, is that it's actually the Cowboys who still control their own destiny. Despite this meltdown, if they win out, they will win the NFC East. They face the Redskins this week, and face the Eagles in Week 17, most likely with the division on the line. Predicting this division is impossible, but the games are entertaining as heck. Even if you're not affiliated with any of these teams, you should try and catch a couple of their games. They'll make you laugh, cry, scratch your head, make you say 'ooh' and 'aah,' and keep you on the edge of your seat.
Drama Division, Part II
Not to be outdone, the NFC North is also making a play for their own drama. Quarterback drama dominated the headlines this past weekend as Aaron Rodgers couldn't go, Matt Cassel did go, and Jay Cutler returned to a Bears' fan base that seems to have zero love for him. The Packers, with that miracle win at Dallas, are somehow still in the thick of things. That defense is awful, but if they get A-Rod back, it could be trouble for the rest of the division. They get the Steelers at home and close out the season in the Windy City, so it's by no means an easy stretch run. Still, if A-Rod is at full health, it gives the Packers a shot to make some noise.
The Lions, meanwhile, had everything going for them. They swept the first place Bears earlier in the season, and have their final two games against teams with losing records in domes (home vs Giants, at Minnesota). They also have, I believe, the most talent of any team in the North. Unfortunately, talent alone doesn't win you games. Megatron had some terrible drops last night as the Lions lost to the Ravens, despite Baltimore not even scoring a TD. They looked like the classic Lions with dumb penalties, questionable play calling (empty backfield on 3rd and 1?!), and Stafford driving fans crazy with his passes going everywhere. With that loss, they actually fall to third in the division and are in real danger of being out of the playoffs before Week 17 even comes around. Even if they are still in it, I fully expect them to choke away that opportunity in their last game at Minnesota.
The Bears, meanwhile, had their own drama begin before the game even started. The decision to bench Josh McCown and start Jay Cutler was met with more than its fair share of critics. I thought the criticism was completely unwarranted. I also thought it was a good thing this game was played in Cleveland and not Chicago. I guarantee you that on Cutler's first bad incompletion, and especially on that pick 6, that he would have gotten booed unmercifully. Who knows what that would have done to his psyche. Despite a rocky start, Cutler was able to rally the troops and beat a fairly stout Cleveland defense to the tune of 31 offensive points with him contributing to 21 of them. Would McCown have thrown for 400 yards and 5 TDs? Maybe, but going back to Cutler was certainly the right decision, and he should start as long as he's healthy.
AFC Top Teams Falter
Denver, New England, and Cincinnati all had a chance to make a move for a playoff bye and home field advantage in the AFC. All three had winnable games. All three faltered. It started Thursday night when the Broncos welcomed San Diego to Mile High. San Diego gave them a scare the first time they played, but Denver prevailed. Surprisingly, it was San Diego's defense, and not Phillip Rivers and the offense, that won this game for the Chargers. They held a Wes Welker-less Broncos team to only 295 total yards en route to a 27-20 victory. The Chargers remain on life support for the playoffs, while the Broncos left the door open for the Patriots to nab home field as the Pats beat the Broncos in a Week 12 thriller.
Rather than seize the opportunity, the Pats came up yards short against an improved, but beatable, Dolphins team. Still, when the Dolphins scored with 1:15 left and the crowd was going crazy, I was thinking that they left too much time on the clock. Brady will get the ball back, do his Brady thing, and crush the hearts of Dolphins fans. Well, almost did. He even converted a fourth down that would have won it for the Dolphins. Instead, he marched them down the field and had a couple good shots at the end zone. One was dropped by Amendola and the other should have been a defensive pass interference call as he was trying to get it to Michael Hoomanawanui. His final pass guaranteed they would stay in second place in the AFC for one more week as it was intercepted in the end zone. Not quite enough Brady magic.
The Bengals, playing on Sunday Night Football, were able to see all the carnage happen to the teams ahead of them. They could now move into a tie with New England for the second seed, and put distance between themselves and Baltimore for the AFC North crown. Everything fell apart in Pittsburgh as the Bengals weren't able to do anything. The Steelers defense played like the defense of old as they held the Bengals to only 57 total rushing yards, forcing Andy Dalton to throw 44 times. That is not a recipe for success for the Bengals. Now, since the Bengals lost to the Ravens earlier this year, it is actually Baltimore that controls their own destiny. If the Ravens win out (home vs Pats, at Bengals), it will be them that win the division crown and a home playoff game. They'll need to find some more offense as field goals likely won't get it done against the Patriots like it did last night, but the opportunity is at least there for them to take.
The Curious Case of the New Orleans Saints
Never before have I seen such a discrepancy between a team's performance when they are at home and when they are on the road. They've looked scary good at home this year, and I would probably pick them to beat anyone in the Superdome, including Seattle and Denver. Once they leave those confines, however, it's like they forget how to play football. Their only comfortable road game this year was in Chicago, and even that got hairy at the end. Their other ones? A two point win over the Josh Freeman, yes that Josh Freeman, led Bucs, a three point loss to New England, a loss to the lowly Jets, a four point win over a struggling Atlanta team, an absolute beat down loss in Seattle, and most recently an 11 point loss to the Kellen Clemens led Rams. Bummer.
There was one point in the St. Louis game where Brees had 0 TDs and 2 interceptions, while Clemens had 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The players are still the same, the coaches are still the same, they just can't seem to get it done on the road. Up next is a trip to Carolina, a team they just destroyed in the Superdome a couple of weeks ago. I'm not one to bet against Drew Brees, mainly because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that he and the Saints will struggle and lose this game. They squeaked out wins against bad Tampa and Atlanta teams, but Carolina will show up to play having that awful Sunday Night Football performance fresh in their minds. With a very good defense and ball control offense, I could see the Panthers winning this one comfortably and making the race for the number two seed in the NFC very interesting.
Current Playoff Standings (As of today)
AFC NFC
1. Denver 1. Seattle
2. New England 2. New Orleans
3. Cincinnati 3. Philly
4. Indianapolis 4. Chicago
5. Kansas City 5. Carolina
6. Baltimore 6. San Fran
Matty O
Monday, December 9, 2013
2013-14 Bowl Preview
Finally, after years of disagreement and controversy, the BCS will retire following this bowl season. Even better, is the fact that the National Championship game seems to feature the consensus top two teams in the nation. Auburn would have had a very strong argument even if Ohio State had won the Big Ten. Florida State has been the most consistently dominant team throughout this season, including a 45-7 thrashing of Duke in the ACC Championship. It should make for a great matchup on January 6th as Auburn looks to get the SEC its eighth consecutive National Championship, and FSU seeks its first since 1999. Prior to that date, however, are numerous intriguing bowl games that will surely whet your college football appetite.
Best Non-BCS Bowl Bowl Game
Oklahoma State vs Missouri, AT&T Cotton Bowl, January 3rd
This might actually wind up being the most entertaining bowl of the whole bowl season. Both teams will surely come into this game feeling disappointed after losing their final game of the season, I guarantee you they will both be up to play. They'll both want to prove that their season was no joke and finish strong. Adding to this is the fact that these two teams are actually quite familiar with each other, with Missouri being a former Big 12 member. OSU will want to represent the Big 12 well, while Mizzou will want to prove they were right to leave the Big 12 behind. This should be quite an offensive show as Missouri and OSU rank 16th and 15th in the nation, respectively, in points for. I'll take OSU in a slight upset as their defense is a bit better than Missouri's.
Disappointment Bowl
Oregon vs Texas, Valero Alamo Bowl, December 30th
Oregon came into 2013 guns a blazing, despite losing their head coach Chip Kelly to the Eagles. They were absolutely destroying teams early in the year, scoring a minimum of 42 points each of their first eight games. This included a trip to Washington and hosting #12 UCLA. Then came a tricky Thursday night game in early November in Stanford, where everything fell apart. They were held to 20 points, with 13 of those points coming in the final five minutes of the game. Despite this setback, they were still in the hunt for a BCS bowl game. Then, perhaps more surprisingly, they were dominated on the road by an unranked Arizona team and lost 42-16. Upsets are one thing, but getting destroyed in an upset is another. Now they wind up not even playing on New Year's Day. Ducks fans can find solace in the fact that Marcus Mariota announced he will come back to school next year.
Texas is an example of just how far a team can fall from grace. Normally a perennial contender under Mack Brown, the Longhorns lost back to back games early in the year at BYU and against Ole Miss. Despite beating Iowa State in controversial fashion, there was talk that Brown should be replaced. Brown took himself off the hot seat by beating down Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but raised the question once again by getting hammered by the other two ranked teams they faced, as they fell to Oklahoma State (38-13) and Baylor (30-10) with the Big 12 Title on the line. If there's a silver lining for the Longhorns in this game, it's the fact that it is played in San Antonio. That likely won't be enough as Oregon should throttle the Longhorns. I'll take the Ducks by at least three TDs.
Game That Should Be A Bigger Deal
Fresno State vs USC, Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, December 21st
For the most part, the later the bowl is, the more important it is and the better the teams are. Here is an exception. This is actually the second bowl to kick off the bowl season, yet features two teams who finished ranked. USC will be using its third different head coach this year, and Fresno State will be wondering what could have been. Fresno had a very similar story to NIU, as they played in a weak conference, but were undefeated and handling teams with ease. Then came a Friday game at San Jose State. Not sure if they still had a turkey hangover, but San Jose State dropped 62 points on them in a non-overtime game, and won 62-52. Fresno's BCS hopes were dashed and, due to the lack of Mountain West bowl tie-ins, they wind up as an 11-1 team playing in the Las Vegas Bowl.
USC disappointment meanwhile, happened throughout the year, not just at the end. They lost to Washington State and were pulverized by Arizona State before firing head coach Lane Kiffin. The team rallied behind interim head coach Ed Orgeron, but lost its remaining two rivalry games to Notre Dame and UCLA. After not being offered the head coaching job at USC, Orgeron left the team leaving the Trojans in a state of limbo. This game is hard to call, but I'll take Fresno to beat the team from the power conference.
Potential Biggest Blowout
Oklahoma vs Alabama, Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 2nd
I was going to pick LSU over Iowa as the biggest blowout, but starting LSU QB Zach Mettenberger got injured and won't play. A lot of people probably see the Baylor/UCF game as the biggest one, but I actually think UCF will keep it closer than people think. Alabama, meanwhile, had its only loss come on the road to a team playing in the National Championship game. It took three missed field goals and a missed field goal return for a TD just to beat them. I'm still not convinced that if Auburn and Alabama played 10 times, that Alabama wouldn't win the majority of time. Alas, Alabama still gets a BCS bowl berth, and should have a decidedly home crowd advantage.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, actually finished behind Oregon, South Carolina, and Missouri in the final rankings, but got into a BCS bowl. Go figure. Their case was certainly strengthened by a win over Oklahoma State this past weekend. Still, they have two losses on their record and have played a lesser schedule than Alabama. On top of that, Oklahoma's starting quarterback Trevor Knight got injured in the OSU game. Even though Blake Bell was able to come in and perform effectively to win the OSU game, it's still a downgrade. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the country, and they'll look to make a statement. Bold final score prediction: 'Bama - 45, OU - 3.
Defensive Bowl
Stanford vs Michigan State, Rose Bowl, January 1st
If scoring is your thing, this might be one to skip. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in points against. Stanford has shut down the likes of Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State, while the Spartans grounded Michigan and held Ohio State to its lowest point total of the season. Both team's offenses have the ability to put up points (see: Stanford's two games against Arizona State, Michigan State vs Ohio State), but I doubt they will. I expect an old school slug fest with little scoring, and plenty of hard hits. Ball control will be critical in this game as I expect few possessions for both teams and a field goal battle to ensue. I'll take the Spartans to end the Big 10's recent slump in the Rose Bowl.
National Championship
Auburn vs Florida State, National Championship, January 6th
While I would argue that from a matchup standpoint, Alabama would present more problems for Florida State, it is Auburn that wound up in the title game. The reason I think Florida State could run away with this one is how bad the Tigers' defense has been recently. Even though their three recent victories have been impressive and memorable, they have given up 38, 28, and 42 points in those games. Florida State's offense is more dangerous than the three Auburn faced in those games (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri), so I expect them to put up points in bunches. Florida State has actually scored 42 points in a half this season (42 vs Maryland). Auburn will have to keep up point for point with the Seminoles, and I don't think they can do so.
Auburn is still a one dimensional team, with a run first, middle, and last mentality. Florida State has one of, if not the, most athletic defenses in the country. Lost in the hype that their offense and Jameis Winston have gotten is the fact that Florida State's defense has been just as dominant. The Seminole defense has actually given up less points in their last five games than Auburn did this past Saturday. If they can stop, or at least slow down, this Auburn rushing attack, then I think the Seminoles have it in the bag. It'll be close early, but I think Florida State pulls away late as they win 38-14.
Matty O
Best Non-BCS Bowl Bowl Game
Oklahoma State vs Missouri, AT&T Cotton Bowl, January 3rd
This might actually wind up being the most entertaining bowl of the whole bowl season. Both teams will surely come into this game feeling disappointed after losing their final game of the season, I guarantee you they will both be up to play. They'll both want to prove that their season was no joke and finish strong. Adding to this is the fact that these two teams are actually quite familiar with each other, with Missouri being a former Big 12 member. OSU will want to represent the Big 12 well, while Mizzou will want to prove they were right to leave the Big 12 behind. This should be quite an offensive show as Missouri and OSU rank 16th and 15th in the nation, respectively, in points for. I'll take OSU in a slight upset as their defense is a bit better than Missouri's.
Disappointment Bowl
Oregon vs Texas, Valero Alamo Bowl, December 30th
Oregon came into 2013 guns a blazing, despite losing their head coach Chip Kelly to the Eagles. They were absolutely destroying teams early in the year, scoring a minimum of 42 points each of their first eight games. This included a trip to Washington and hosting #12 UCLA. Then came a tricky Thursday night game in early November in Stanford, where everything fell apart. They were held to 20 points, with 13 of those points coming in the final five minutes of the game. Despite this setback, they were still in the hunt for a BCS bowl game. Then, perhaps more surprisingly, they were dominated on the road by an unranked Arizona team and lost 42-16. Upsets are one thing, but getting destroyed in an upset is another. Now they wind up not even playing on New Year's Day. Ducks fans can find solace in the fact that Marcus Mariota announced he will come back to school next year.
Texas is an example of just how far a team can fall from grace. Normally a perennial contender under Mack Brown, the Longhorns lost back to back games early in the year at BYU and against Ole Miss. Despite beating Iowa State in controversial fashion, there was talk that Brown should be replaced. Brown took himself off the hot seat by beating down Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but raised the question once again by getting hammered by the other two ranked teams they faced, as they fell to Oklahoma State (38-13) and Baylor (30-10) with the Big 12 Title on the line. If there's a silver lining for the Longhorns in this game, it's the fact that it is played in San Antonio. That likely won't be enough as Oregon should throttle the Longhorns. I'll take the Ducks by at least three TDs.
Game That Should Be A Bigger Deal
Fresno State vs USC, Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, December 21st
For the most part, the later the bowl is, the more important it is and the better the teams are. Here is an exception. This is actually the second bowl to kick off the bowl season, yet features two teams who finished ranked. USC will be using its third different head coach this year, and Fresno State will be wondering what could have been. Fresno had a very similar story to NIU, as they played in a weak conference, but were undefeated and handling teams with ease. Then came a Friday game at San Jose State. Not sure if they still had a turkey hangover, but San Jose State dropped 62 points on them in a non-overtime game, and won 62-52. Fresno's BCS hopes were dashed and, due to the lack of Mountain West bowl tie-ins, they wind up as an 11-1 team playing in the Las Vegas Bowl.
USC disappointment meanwhile, happened throughout the year, not just at the end. They lost to Washington State and were pulverized by Arizona State before firing head coach Lane Kiffin. The team rallied behind interim head coach Ed Orgeron, but lost its remaining two rivalry games to Notre Dame and UCLA. After not being offered the head coaching job at USC, Orgeron left the team leaving the Trojans in a state of limbo. This game is hard to call, but I'll take Fresno to beat the team from the power conference.
Potential Biggest Blowout
Oklahoma vs Alabama, Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 2nd
I was going to pick LSU over Iowa as the biggest blowout, but starting LSU QB Zach Mettenberger got injured and won't play. A lot of people probably see the Baylor/UCF game as the biggest one, but I actually think UCF will keep it closer than people think. Alabama, meanwhile, had its only loss come on the road to a team playing in the National Championship game. It took three missed field goals and a missed field goal return for a TD just to beat them. I'm still not convinced that if Auburn and Alabama played 10 times, that Alabama wouldn't win the majority of time. Alas, Alabama still gets a BCS bowl berth, and should have a decidedly home crowd advantage.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, actually finished behind Oregon, South Carolina, and Missouri in the final rankings, but got into a BCS bowl. Go figure. Their case was certainly strengthened by a win over Oklahoma State this past weekend. Still, they have two losses on their record and have played a lesser schedule than Alabama. On top of that, Oklahoma's starting quarterback Trevor Knight got injured in the OSU game. Even though Blake Bell was able to come in and perform effectively to win the OSU game, it's still a downgrade. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the country, and they'll look to make a statement. Bold final score prediction: 'Bama - 45, OU - 3.
Defensive Bowl
Stanford vs Michigan State, Rose Bowl, January 1st
If scoring is your thing, this might be one to skip. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in points against. Stanford has shut down the likes of Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State, while the Spartans grounded Michigan and held Ohio State to its lowest point total of the season. Both team's offenses have the ability to put up points (see: Stanford's two games against Arizona State, Michigan State vs Ohio State), but I doubt they will. I expect an old school slug fest with little scoring, and plenty of hard hits. Ball control will be critical in this game as I expect few possessions for both teams and a field goal battle to ensue. I'll take the Spartans to end the Big 10's recent slump in the Rose Bowl.
National Championship
Auburn vs Florida State, National Championship, January 6th
While I would argue that from a matchup standpoint, Alabama would present more problems for Florida State, it is Auburn that wound up in the title game. The reason I think Florida State could run away with this one is how bad the Tigers' defense has been recently. Even though their three recent victories have been impressive and memorable, they have given up 38, 28, and 42 points in those games. Florida State's offense is more dangerous than the three Auburn faced in those games (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri), so I expect them to put up points in bunches. Florida State has actually scored 42 points in a half this season (42 vs Maryland). Auburn will have to keep up point for point with the Seminoles, and I don't think they can do so.
Auburn is still a one dimensional team, with a run first, middle, and last mentality. Florida State has one of, if not the, most athletic defenses in the country. Lost in the hype that their offense and Jameis Winston have gotten is the fact that Florida State's defense has been just as dominant. The Seminole defense has actually given up less points in their last five games than Auburn did this past Saturday. If they can stop, or at least slow down, this Auburn rushing attack, then I think the Seminoles have it in the bag. It'll be close early, but I think Florida State pulls away late as they win 38-14.
Matty O
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
2013 Fantasy Football Playoffs Guide
Congrats fellow playoff-er, you've made it through 13 grueling weeks and have earned a spot in your league's fantasy playoffs. While some of you may still have a week of the regular season left with your playoffs starting Week 15, this will still be helpful to try and get into the playoffs if you need some extra help in your Week 14 matchup. For me, similar to last year, it was polar opposites how I did in my two leagues. 1st out of 14 in my PPR, 9th out of 12 in my standard (probably should have been worse). So hopefully you made the playoffs in at least one of your leagues and have a chance to become your league's fantasy football champion. This article will give you some tips, matchups, and things that I personally like to do to get an edge in the final three weeks of the season.
Back It Up
I mentioned this in my mid season fantasy football article, but it bears repeating. The ultimate equalizer/team destroyer, is injuries. It's great that Jamaal Charles is playing lights out this year, but if he goes down, I doubt anyone on your bench can replace him. There's also a good chance that one of your other league mates will pick up his backup the next week off the waiver wire. That is why this week, not after your star player gets injured is when you should pick up their back up regardless if he's a health risk or not.
The reason why you didn't carry a backup during the regular season is because you wanted to stash a player or were looking for potential. It's Week 14 and the fantasy season ends Week 16. The only player of note that still has yet to return is Ravens' tight end Dennis Pitta, and they're not even sure if he'll come back (Aaron Rodgers is also coming back, but I doubt he was dropped in your league). Michael Crabtree is back, Shane Vereen is back, Percy Harvin is on the way. At this point, there's really no star player to stash on one's bench in hopes that they will explode in the fantasy playoffs. With that in mind, you should have space on your bench for a backup.
For example, in my PPR league I have Drew Brees. I've started him every game this year, except his bye obviously, and he has had zero injury concerns. Even with two matchups against the Panthers looming, he's still a top 5 QB play in fantasy. Having said that, I'm still going to pick up a quarterback off the waiver wire this week. Thankfully I have a bye this week, but if Brees goes down in Week 14, I would be sunk in the playoffs without a decent option. The last thing you want is a situation like this and be forced to start Brandon Weeden when your opponent has Peyton Manning.
If you've made it this far, chances are your starting lineup looks about the same week to week. Assuming no injuries, I plan on starting the same nine players in my PPR league the rest of the way. You might have one or two players you swap in and out, but the point is that you should have room to get your backups. It's always good to be prepared, and even more important once the playoffs start.
Matchups
Although matchups can determine whether or not to start borderline players, it is not a reason to bench your studs. This past week, I still started Brees in Seattle, DeSean Jackson against Patrick Peterson and the Cards, and Vincent Jackson against a strong Carolina defense. Still winning my matchup probably made it easier to handle, but I'm not sorry I started any of them even if some of my bench players outscored them. The last thing you want is to put a Brees or Tom Brady on your bench, only to see them throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. Even if you have a stud player going up to Seattle, I would still play them. Brees certainly struggled there last night, but keep in mind that rookie Mike Glennon threw for a pair of TDs and zero interceptions there, so they can be beat.
You should mainly watch matchups when thinking about defenses and kickers. Kicker is probably the hardest position to predict in fantasy. In a dream scenario, you want what happened with the Colts on Sunday. You want a good enough offense to move the ball facing a good enough defense to stop them when they get close to the end zone. A lot of the experts will rank kickers on potent offenses higher, but sometimes an offense can be too potent. Denver put up 35 points this weekend, but K Matt Prater only netted you 5 points. Compare that to the Colts who put up 22 points, but K Adam Vinatieri put up 20. I would say that easy matchups are actually dangerous for kickers, and you should look for matchups against middle of the road defenses.
Defense, on the other hand, is all about good matchups. Unless you own a team like the Seahawks or 49ers, chances are you choose defenses based on matchups week to week. A sound strategy and one that I used in both my leagues. The main thing to keep in mind is the difference between fantasy and reality. For fantasy purposes, the Jets' defense is lousy. They don't get a lot of turnovers and have to deal with short fields due to Geno Smith being so inept. In reality, however, they're a pretty stout defense. They pressure the QB, knock down passes, and make it difficult to move the football. You should also keep this in mind when looking for favorable matchups against offensive teams.
The Buccaneers, for example, are 3-9 and starting a rookie QB. Start whichever defense is playing them every week right? Not quite. They really don't turn the ball over that often as Glennon has only five interceptions in nine career starts. Two of them came in his first start against the talented Cardinals secondary, so I'll give him a bit of a pass for that one. The offense isn't going to light up the scoreboard, but it's not going to turn the ball over either, which is what you need from a fantasy defense. Be sure to tread carefully if you think you have a "good" matchup.
Safe Play vs Boom or Bust
Now that the playoffs have started, getting the most points is irrelevant. Points For is normally the first tiebreaker, but now it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 100. A win advances you to the next round. With that in mind, you should seriously evaluate whether or not to play your safe players or your boom or bust players. An example of a safe player would be Pierre Garcon. You know he's going to get a good amount of targets, but is stuck in an offense that likes to run the ball and has no one else as a viable threat to draw coverage away from Garcon. That means, especially in PPR leagues, he'll get you solid production based on sheer volume, but will never approach the monster numbers a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green can put up.
An example of a boom or bust type player is Vincent Jackson. Speaking from personal experience, Jackson has been very up and down this year. Indeed, his lows have been bad, but his highs have been phenomenal. 114 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6 followed by 138 and 2 TDs in Week 7, and 165 and 1 TD in Week 11. He's proven, unlike someone like Garcon, that he can put up huge numbers, but also proven that he can kill your team with back to back yardage totals of 11 and 28 in Weeks 9 and 10 with zero TDs. Week 9 saw the Bucs face Seattle, so I'll give him a bit of a pass, but against the Miami secondary? C'mon man. The question becomes, how to determine which ones to play?
For starters, I would examine your own team. If your QB and RBs have favorable matchups, perhaps you play your safe option. You know your other team members will put up great numbers, so you just need decent production from this position. If you see a lot of tough matchups, however, I might go with the boom or bust guy. If I have a QB going against Seattle and my RBs going against San Francisco and the Jets, then chances are they won't put up a lot of points. In a PPR league, if I play my safe player, chances are I'll get between 12-18 points. That won't matter though if my other players put up low numbers. That is a scenario where you need the Vincent Jackson 30+ points. He might put up 10 or less as well, but you would have lost either way. You might as well take the risk and hope he booms, rather than take the guaranteed 12-18 knowing there's a good chance that won't be enough.
The other scenario is doing the same thing with your opponent, except reversing the logic. If he has a bunch of players with bad matchups, then play your safe ones. Chances are you won't need huge numbers from that boom or bust player and the safe player will help pad your lead. The final scenario is if you are behind heading into the late games and your opponent has already played all their players. The amount you're down by should determine who to play. Down by 25? Give me a Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace who have the ability to break a big one. Down by 10? Give me a Steve Smith or Garcon who are guaranteed to see at least 7-8 targets. Know who is who on your roster.
Favorable Matchups
Denver Broncos
As if you needed another reason to start a Bronco. They get the Titans and Chargers at home before heading to Houston where Tom Brady just shredded the Texans' defense. Honestly, the only fear here is they get so far ahead that they pull their starters.
Kansas City Chiefs
If you have Jamaal Charles, he may just win you your title with these matchups. Washington, Oakland, and Indy all await this vaunted Chiefs' running attack and my guess is they'll do nothing to stop it.
San Diego Chargers
This is an endorsement of the entire Chargers' passing attack. They get the Giants and Raiders at home with the Broncos sandwiched in between at Denver. They'll have to throw in that game and the Raiders and Giants' passing defenses are nothing to write home about. Phillip Rivers has played lights out in favorable matchups this year.
Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings and Patriots at home and a game against the Lions in a dome on Monday Night Football. All the Ravens players will be great plays down the stretch, especially if they get Dennis Pitta back in the offense.
Houston Texans
Not only do they get to face the Jags, Colts, and Broncos, but they are the only team that won't have to worry about inclement weather the rest of the year. They go to Jacksonville, get Indy at Lucas Oil, and face the Broncos back at home.
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta at home, indoors at Cowboy stadium, then back home against the Steelers. No matter who is starting at QB, you have to like the matchups those defenses present.
Dallas Cowboys
They get the Bears in Chicago, Green Bay at home, and Washington in DC. Not the best of all weather scenarios, but certainly beatable defenses. Even Romo's December curse may not be enough to hold this offense back.
Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly, I think the Eagles have a good chance to put up 35+ points the rest of the year. The Lions at home, in Minnesota's dome, and then at the Bears. This offense moves at a million miles per hour, and should hit the turbo boosters against these porous defenses.
Bad Matchups
New Orleans Saints
Don't bench Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham. They do, however, have some tricky opponents. They face the Panthers twice in a home and home in Weeks 14 and 16. Getting the Rams in a dome certainly helps, but the Saints have played poorly on the road and the Rams have a great pass rush.
Indianapolis Colts
This may be the most brutal three game stretch in the NFL. In Cincinnati where the Bengals' defense has been unstoppable, Houston at home, and in Kansas City. Any Andrew Luck owners who somehow managed to make it to the playoffs, I would be concerned.
Tennessee Titans
Their Week 16 matchup against Jacksonville provides some relief, but Chris Johnson owners might not even make it that far. Week 14 has them going to Denver and Week 15 welcomes the Cardinals to town. I know the Broncos can be thrown on, but it's likely the only ownable player on this team is CJ?K (maybe Kendall Wright). Denver is ranked 7th against the run, Arizona is ranked 4th.
There you have it folks. Not too many brutal fantasy playoffs for teams, but a lot of favorable matchups. Good luck to all in your quest for the title!
Matty O
Back It Up
I mentioned this in my mid season fantasy football article, but it bears repeating. The ultimate equalizer/team destroyer, is injuries. It's great that Jamaal Charles is playing lights out this year, but if he goes down, I doubt anyone on your bench can replace him. There's also a good chance that one of your other league mates will pick up his backup the next week off the waiver wire. That is why this week, not after your star player gets injured is when you should pick up their back up regardless if he's a health risk or not.
The reason why you didn't carry a backup during the regular season is because you wanted to stash a player or were looking for potential. It's Week 14 and the fantasy season ends Week 16. The only player of note that still has yet to return is Ravens' tight end Dennis Pitta, and they're not even sure if he'll come back (Aaron Rodgers is also coming back, but I doubt he was dropped in your league). Michael Crabtree is back, Shane Vereen is back, Percy Harvin is on the way. At this point, there's really no star player to stash on one's bench in hopes that they will explode in the fantasy playoffs. With that in mind, you should have space on your bench for a backup.
For example, in my PPR league I have Drew Brees. I've started him every game this year, except his bye obviously, and he has had zero injury concerns. Even with two matchups against the Panthers looming, he's still a top 5 QB play in fantasy. Having said that, I'm still going to pick up a quarterback off the waiver wire this week. Thankfully I have a bye this week, but if Brees goes down in Week 14, I would be sunk in the playoffs without a decent option. The last thing you want is a situation like this and be forced to start Brandon Weeden when your opponent has Peyton Manning.
If you've made it this far, chances are your starting lineup looks about the same week to week. Assuming no injuries, I plan on starting the same nine players in my PPR league the rest of the way. You might have one or two players you swap in and out, but the point is that you should have room to get your backups. It's always good to be prepared, and even more important once the playoffs start.
Matchups
Although matchups can determine whether or not to start borderline players, it is not a reason to bench your studs. This past week, I still started Brees in Seattle, DeSean Jackson against Patrick Peterson and the Cards, and Vincent Jackson against a strong Carolina defense. Still winning my matchup probably made it easier to handle, but I'm not sorry I started any of them even if some of my bench players outscored them. The last thing you want is to put a Brees or Tom Brady on your bench, only to see them throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. Even if you have a stud player going up to Seattle, I would still play them. Brees certainly struggled there last night, but keep in mind that rookie Mike Glennon threw for a pair of TDs and zero interceptions there, so they can be beat.
You should mainly watch matchups when thinking about defenses and kickers. Kicker is probably the hardest position to predict in fantasy. In a dream scenario, you want what happened with the Colts on Sunday. You want a good enough offense to move the ball facing a good enough defense to stop them when they get close to the end zone. A lot of the experts will rank kickers on potent offenses higher, but sometimes an offense can be too potent. Denver put up 35 points this weekend, but K Matt Prater only netted you 5 points. Compare that to the Colts who put up 22 points, but K Adam Vinatieri put up 20. I would say that easy matchups are actually dangerous for kickers, and you should look for matchups against middle of the road defenses.
Defense, on the other hand, is all about good matchups. Unless you own a team like the Seahawks or 49ers, chances are you choose defenses based on matchups week to week. A sound strategy and one that I used in both my leagues. The main thing to keep in mind is the difference between fantasy and reality. For fantasy purposes, the Jets' defense is lousy. They don't get a lot of turnovers and have to deal with short fields due to Geno Smith being so inept. In reality, however, they're a pretty stout defense. They pressure the QB, knock down passes, and make it difficult to move the football. You should also keep this in mind when looking for favorable matchups against offensive teams.
The Buccaneers, for example, are 3-9 and starting a rookie QB. Start whichever defense is playing them every week right? Not quite. They really don't turn the ball over that often as Glennon has only five interceptions in nine career starts. Two of them came in his first start against the talented Cardinals secondary, so I'll give him a bit of a pass for that one. The offense isn't going to light up the scoreboard, but it's not going to turn the ball over either, which is what you need from a fantasy defense. Be sure to tread carefully if you think you have a "good" matchup.
Safe Play vs Boom or Bust
Now that the playoffs have started, getting the most points is irrelevant. Points For is normally the first tiebreaker, but now it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 100. A win advances you to the next round. With that in mind, you should seriously evaluate whether or not to play your safe players or your boom or bust players. An example of a safe player would be Pierre Garcon. You know he's going to get a good amount of targets, but is stuck in an offense that likes to run the ball and has no one else as a viable threat to draw coverage away from Garcon. That means, especially in PPR leagues, he'll get you solid production based on sheer volume, but will never approach the monster numbers a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green can put up.
An example of a boom or bust type player is Vincent Jackson. Speaking from personal experience, Jackson has been very up and down this year. Indeed, his lows have been bad, but his highs have been phenomenal. 114 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6 followed by 138 and 2 TDs in Week 7, and 165 and 1 TD in Week 11. He's proven, unlike someone like Garcon, that he can put up huge numbers, but also proven that he can kill your team with back to back yardage totals of 11 and 28 in Weeks 9 and 10 with zero TDs. Week 9 saw the Bucs face Seattle, so I'll give him a bit of a pass, but against the Miami secondary? C'mon man. The question becomes, how to determine which ones to play?
For starters, I would examine your own team. If your QB and RBs have favorable matchups, perhaps you play your safe option. You know your other team members will put up great numbers, so you just need decent production from this position. If you see a lot of tough matchups, however, I might go with the boom or bust guy. If I have a QB going against Seattle and my RBs going against San Francisco and the Jets, then chances are they won't put up a lot of points. In a PPR league, if I play my safe player, chances are I'll get between 12-18 points. That won't matter though if my other players put up low numbers. That is a scenario where you need the Vincent Jackson 30+ points. He might put up 10 or less as well, but you would have lost either way. You might as well take the risk and hope he booms, rather than take the guaranteed 12-18 knowing there's a good chance that won't be enough.
The other scenario is doing the same thing with your opponent, except reversing the logic. If he has a bunch of players with bad matchups, then play your safe ones. Chances are you won't need huge numbers from that boom or bust player and the safe player will help pad your lead. The final scenario is if you are behind heading into the late games and your opponent has already played all their players. The amount you're down by should determine who to play. Down by 25? Give me a Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace who have the ability to break a big one. Down by 10? Give me a Steve Smith or Garcon who are guaranteed to see at least 7-8 targets. Know who is who on your roster.
Favorable Matchups
Denver Broncos
As if you needed another reason to start a Bronco. They get the Titans and Chargers at home before heading to Houston where Tom Brady just shredded the Texans' defense. Honestly, the only fear here is they get so far ahead that they pull their starters.
Kansas City Chiefs
If you have Jamaal Charles, he may just win you your title with these matchups. Washington, Oakland, and Indy all await this vaunted Chiefs' running attack and my guess is they'll do nothing to stop it.
San Diego Chargers
This is an endorsement of the entire Chargers' passing attack. They get the Giants and Raiders at home with the Broncos sandwiched in between at Denver. They'll have to throw in that game and the Raiders and Giants' passing defenses are nothing to write home about. Phillip Rivers has played lights out in favorable matchups this year.
Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings and Patriots at home and a game against the Lions in a dome on Monday Night Football. All the Ravens players will be great plays down the stretch, especially if they get Dennis Pitta back in the offense.
Houston Texans
Not only do they get to face the Jags, Colts, and Broncos, but they are the only team that won't have to worry about inclement weather the rest of the year. They go to Jacksonville, get Indy at Lucas Oil, and face the Broncos back at home.
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta at home, indoors at Cowboy stadium, then back home against the Steelers. No matter who is starting at QB, you have to like the matchups those defenses present.
Dallas Cowboys
They get the Bears in Chicago, Green Bay at home, and Washington in DC. Not the best of all weather scenarios, but certainly beatable defenses. Even Romo's December curse may not be enough to hold this offense back.
Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly, I think the Eagles have a good chance to put up 35+ points the rest of the year. The Lions at home, in Minnesota's dome, and then at the Bears. This offense moves at a million miles per hour, and should hit the turbo boosters against these porous defenses.
Bad Matchups
New Orleans Saints
Don't bench Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham. They do, however, have some tricky opponents. They face the Panthers twice in a home and home in Weeks 14 and 16. Getting the Rams in a dome certainly helps, but the Saints have played poorly on the road and the Rams have a great pass rush.
Indianapolis Colts
This may be the most brutal three game stretch in the NFL. In Cincinnati where the Bengals' defense has been unstoppable, Houston at home, and in Kansas City. Any Andrew Luck owners who somehow managed to make it to the playoffs, I would be concerned.
Tennessee Titans
Their Week 16 matchup against Jacksonville provides some relief, but Chris Johnson owners might not even make it that far. Week 14 has them going to Denver and Week 15 welcomes the Cardinals to town. I know the Broncos can be thrown on, but it's likely the only ownable player on this team is CJ?K (maybe Kendall Wright). Denver is ranked 7th against the run, Arizona is ranked 4th.
There you have it folks. Not too many brutal fantasy playoffs for teams, but a lot of favorable matchups. Good luck to all in your quest for the title!
Matty O
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Who's Number Two?
If you missed the Auburn-Alabama game yesterday, I truly feel sorry for you. Even the SportsCenter highlights don't do it justice as the game was thrilling throughout. It was arguably the greatest college football game I've ever seen, second only to the USC-Texas National Championship game in 2006. The thing that perhaps gives USC-Texas the edge was that it was for all the marbles, both teams were undefeated, it was played at the Rose Bowl, and it was during USC's 2000s dynasty. Still, Auburn-Alabama had everything you could want as a football fan.
It had a blown coverage by Alabama early in the game, only to see Auburn QB Nick Marshall miss WR Ricardo Louis who was open by about 15 yards. It had a bobbled snap on an Alabama punt that got blocked. It had three missed Alabama field goals, which caused Nick Saban to go for it on fourth down when they were in field goal range only to be stuffed. It had a 99 yard TD pass from Alabama to take the lead in the fourth (a lead I thought they would not give up). It had a desperation, possibly illegal pass by Nick Marshall with under a minute left to tie the game. I'm still not sure why the refs didn't at least look at that play as he was very close to being past the line of scrimmage. It had a scenario where the game was over, one second was put back on the clock, and Auburn fans were booing the decision. Coincidentally, this led to the field goal attempt by Alabama, leading to the miraculous return to win the Iron Bowl for Auburn.
While the game itself was great, the mess it created at the top of the rankings is not. Ohio State fans would argue that there is no mess, but I would beg to differ. Florida State is the obvious number one, but behind them is an Ohio State team with a weak schedule and a couple close calls, a one loss Auburn team with the most momentum of any of the top teams after beating 'Bama, and a Missouri team whose only loss came in double overtime to a ranked South Carolina team. Now the debate begins, but a lot can still change. Let's take a look at what these teams face and their case for being in the title game.
Florida State
FSU is the obvious number one. If all three teams at the top win out (Mizzou plays Auburn in the SEC title game so one will lose), they are probably the only one that is guaranteed a spot in the title game. Apart from a fluky close game against Boston College, they have been blowing teams out of the water. They score points and prevent points as they have ripped the three ranked teams that they have played by a combined 155-28. They are a scary team, and it will take a great effort to beat them.
I only mention them here to say that they still have one more game, and Duke might give them trouble. Let's be honest, it's a long shot, but head coach David Cutcliffe has his Blue Devils playing up to their potential. There's really nothing in the stats to suggest an upset here, but you never know. If the Blue Devils do somehow pull the upset, it might still be possible for FSU to play for the title game. If Ohio State loses as well, then FSU, OSU, and the SEC Champion will all have one loss. Between the three, even losing the ACC Championship, I would still take FSU and the SEC Champion to battle it out for the National Championship.
Ohio State
Anyone who roots for the Buckeyes probably read articles like this and roll their eyes. They don't care about those one loss SEC teams, OSU points to the fact that they have zero losses. Undefeated. If you go undefeated in a major conference, shouldn't you get to play for the title? Well Buckeye fans, allow me to point out a few things working against you. For starters, OSU's schedule is certainly the weakest out of the four teams at the top. FSU's is pretty close, but they have demolished their opponents. OSU had close calls against Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and also gave up 35 points to Illinois. As an Illinois alum, I can safely say that allowing 35 points to the Illini, regardless of the score, is embarrassing.
There's also the fact that of the four teams at the top, OSU probably has the toughest match up, and that includes the SEC title game. I'll mention it later on in this article, but I actually think Auburn got a good draw with Mizzou and will handle their business. Michigan State, however, presents OSU's kryptonite; a good defense. The Spartans are fourth in the nation in points allowed, only giving up an average of 11.8 points per game. The thing about the Buckeyes is that they have a prolific offense, but their defense has been carved up this year, the latest of which being giving up 41 points to an unranked Michigan team (could have been worse had the Wolverines played for overtime). Although the Spartans don't have the firepower on offense that the Buckeyes do, they should be able to move the ball on that defense, while the Buckeyes will find a difficult time doing the same on the Spartans. As I mentioned before, if the top three teams all have one loss at the end of the year, I think the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in.
Missouri & Auburn
I'll group these two teams together because they are playing each other, and both face similar scenarios. If they win, they will have a strong case to play in the title game, even over an undefeated Ohio State team. Auburn's list of impressive victories: Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Georgia (when Aaron Murray was healthy), and Alabama. Missouri's list of impressive victories: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, and the clinching game yesterday against Texas A&M. Auburn has the best chance of jumping Ohio State simply because of the way their past two games have ended. Everyone has at least seen the highlights, and beating Alabama the past couple years has been no easy task. So now the SEC Championship might act as a preview of the playoff system next year. Win and you're in.
Personally, I thought Alabama would beat Auburn by a comfortable margin. Auburn was, and still is, a one dimensional team. If anyone can scheme to beat a one dimensional team, it's Nick Saban and the athletes he has on defense. I thought they would take that away, force Nick Marshall to throw to beat them, and shut them down. Alas, that was not the case as Auburn gashed Alabama for almost 300 yards. Now Auburn gets a less athletic Mizzou team that I think will be over matched. It's crazy to think that either of these teams are in the title game considering the awful seasons they had last year. An OSU loss will certainly help their cause, but either Mizzou or Auburn will walk out of this game with a victory over a top four team. On the last week of the season, how would they not jump OSU in that scenario?
Bottom Line
Here are the two most likely scenarios: FSU wins, OSU wins, and Auburn wins or FSU wins, OSU loses, and Auburn wins. In either scenario, I think it will be, and should be, Florida State facing Auburn for the National Title. The Big Ten has a less than favorable reputation as being a dominant football conference anymore, and OSU has its own bad reputation of not showing up recently in BCS games against teams from other conferences. I think that, coupled with the momentum that Auburn has built the past couple weeks will vault them past an undefeated OSU team if the Buckeyes win. OSU would need to blow out the Spartans and Auburn would have to play a sloppy game and barely get by Mizzou for Auburn to get left out. Momentum, history, and strength of schedule are all working against OSU. Can they hang on? Stay tuned.
Matty O
It had a blown coverage by Alabama early in the game, only to see Auburn QB Nick Marshall miss WR Ricardo Louis who was open by about 15 yards. It had a bobbled snap on an Alabama punt that got blocked. It had three missed Alabama field goals, which caused Nick Saban to go for it on fourth down when they were in field goal range only to be stuffed. It had a 99 yard TD pass from Alabama to take the lead in the fourth (a lead I thought they would not give up). It had a desperation, possibly illegal pass by Nick Marshall with under a minute left to tie the game. I'm still not sure why the refs didn't at least look at that play as he was very close to being past the line of scrimmage. It had a scenario where the game was over, one second was put back on the clock, and Auburn fans were booing the decision. Coincidentally, this led to the field goal attempt by Alabama, leading to the miraculous return to win the Iron Bowl for Auburn.
While the game itself was great, the mess it created at the top of the rankings is not. Ohio State fans would argue that there is no mess, but I would beg to differ. Florida State is the obvious number one, but behind them is an Ohio State team with a weak schedule and a couple close calls, a one loss Auburn team with the most momentum of any of the top teams after beating 'Bama, and a Missouri team whose only loss came in double overtime to a ranked South Carolina team. Now the debate begins, but a lot can still change. Let's take a look at what these teams face and their case for being in the title game.
Florida State
FSU is the obvious number one. If all three teams at the top win out (Mizzou plays Auburn in the SEC title game so one will lose), they are probably the only one that is guaranteed a spot in the title game. Apart from a fluky close game against Boston College, they have been blowing teams out of the water. They score points and prevent points as they have ripped the three ranked teams that they have played by a combined 155-28. They are a scary team, and it will take a great effort to beat them.
I only mention them here to say that they still have one more game, and Duke might give them trouble. Let's be honest, it's a long shot, but head coach David Cutcliffe has his Blue Devils playing up to their potential. There's really nothing in the stats to suggest an upset here, but you never know. If the Blue Devils do somehow pull the upset, it might still be possible for FSU to play for the title game. If Ohio State loses as well, then FSU, OSU, and the SEC Champion will all have one loss. Between the three, even losing the ACC Championship, I would still take FSU and the SEC Champion to battle it out for the National Championship.
Ohio State
Anyone who roots for the Buckeyes probably read articles like this and roll their eyes. They don't care about those one loss SEC teams, OSU points to the fact that they have zero losses. Undefeated. If you go undefeated in a major conference, shouldn't you get to play for the title? Well Buckeye fans, allow me to point out a few things working against you. For starters, OSU's schedule is certainly the weakest out of the four teams at the top. FSU's is pretty close, but they have demolished their opponents. OSU had close calls against Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and also gave up 35 points to Illinois. As an Illinois alum, I can safely say that allowing 35 points to the Illini, regardless of the score, is embarrassing.
There's also the fact that of the four teams at the top, OSU probably has the toughest match up, and that includes the SEC title game. I'll mention it later on in this article, but I actually think Auburn got a good draw with Mizzou and will handle their business. Michigan State, however, presents OSU's kryptonite; a good defense. The Spartans are fourth in the nation in points allowed, only giving up an average of 11.8 points per game. The thing about the Buckeyes is that they have a prolific offense, but their defense has been carved up this year, the latest of which being giving up 41 points to an unranked Michigan team (could have been worse had the Wolverines played for overtime). Although the Spartans don't have the firepower on offense that the Buckeyes do, they should be able to move the ball on that defense, while the Buckeyes will find a difficult time doing the same on the Spartans. As I mentioned before, if the top three teams all have one loss at the end of the year, I think the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in.
Missouri & Auburn
I'll group these two teams together because they are playing each other, and both face similar scenarios. If they win, they will have a strong case to play in the title game, even over an undefeated Ohio State team. Auburn's list of impressive victories: Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Georgia (when Aaron Murray was healthy), and Alabama. Missouri's list of impressive victories: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, and the clinching game yesterday against Texas A&M. Auburn has the best chance of jumping Ohio State simply because of the way their past two games have ended. Everyone has at least seen the highlights, and beating Alabama the past couple years has been no easy task. So now the SEC Championship might act as a preview of the playoff system next year. Win and you're in.
Personally, I thought Alabama would beat Auburn by a comfortable margin. Auburn was, and still is, a one dimensional team. If anyone can scheme to beat a one dimensional team, it's Nick Saban and the athletes he has on defense. I thought they would take that away, force Nick Marshall to throw to beat them, and shut them down. Alas, that was not the case as Auburn gashed Alabama for almost 300 yards. Now Auburn gets a less athletic Mizzou team that I think will be over matched. It's crazy to think that either of these teams are in the title game considering the awful seasons they had last year. An OSU loss will certainly help their cause, but either Mizzou or Auburn will walk out of this game with a victory over a top four team. On the last week of the season, how would they not jump OSU in that scenario?
Bottom Line
Here are the two most likely scenarios: FSU wins, OSU wins, and Auburn wins or FSU wins, OSU loses, and Auburn wins. In either scenario, I think it will be, and should be, Florida State facing Auburn for the National Title. The Big Ten has a less than favorable reputation as being a dominant football conference anymore, and OSU has its own bad reputation of not showing up recently in BCS games against teams from other conferences. I think that, coupled with the momentum that Auburn has built the past couple weeks will vault them past an undefeated OSU team if the Buckeyes win. OSU would need to blow out the Spartans and Auburn would have to play a sloppy game and barely get by Mizzou for Auburn to get left out. Momentum, history, and strength of schedule are all working against OSU. Can they hang on? Stay tuned.
Matty O
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